Mini 1804: Poker Mafia (Game Over)

[Wingback]

Hey guys. Been following the game. I'd bet the game on Infinity and Lane being town. Other townreads are MoI, qubixes, Fire Assasin, and RedCoyote. I thought Something_Smart was town earlier but some posts made me rethink that read so I need to go through him again due to possible association with FAQ2. Conflicted on MM. Null on BBT. FAQ2 is a scumread.

VOTE: FA_Q2

[Wingback]

Fell behind unexpectedly. A couple of points from a skim-through of the thread:

Re: Gaming the poker hands

- Not a fan for two reasons: a) It's perfectly plausible for scum to be universal townreads especially if they are good players. Nightkills help POE. When scum get universally townread and are alive in LYLO, being bulletproof is a fantastic excuse for why they're not dead yet. Not being nk'd is actually a pretty great way to catch top-tier scum players and I don't want to take that scumhunting weapon away. b) Not as compelling as the first reason, but I see this as a hybrid poker + mafia game. I signed up to play both and I don't really care to sacrifice one game for the other. It seems that my predecessor was the universal townread but in theory, I still disagree with the idea so I'm going to continue playing poker.

Raise $20

Re: Infinity's question about something_smart

- Something_smart has consistently scumread or pushed against FA_Q2. But when push comes to shove, he chose the counterwagon (MoI) on very weak reasoning (we get more info). He's also never voted FA_Q2 and despite making a lot of noises, typically favored whoever else was a counter to FA_Q2. I think that could point to partners. I need to re-read some sections of the game though and fact-check to make sure I'm not misremembering things. I

have

agreed with a lot of things that something_smart said during his catchups although catchup mode does make it easy to post insightful-looking things when scum. Farside re-inforced my MoI townread and can go into that solid town pile.

Elaboration on non-townreads will happen tonight or tomorrow which currently is the pool of something_smart, MM, FA_Q2, and BBT. Also need to double-check qubixes and RedCoyote. Not really worried about Fire Assassin. Also, FA_Q2's non-response to me replacing in and voting him is telling. If he was honestly scumreading my predecessor, he'd have been even more convinced that I was scum for laying down a vote on him with zero reasoning apparently disappearing from the thread. I expected a hard push my way. Also, Persivul's replace out was ridiculously town but FA_Q2 doesn't comment on that either or take any stance on it.

[Wingback]

I think the mod should pause the deadline until a replacement for qubixes is found. I don't think just letting the clock run out while a player requested replacement is fair for the game.

In any case, don't like the quick wagon on Fire Assasin at all. Much prefer lynching FA_Q2.

[Wingback]

Fold

Fell behind a lot so I'm going to have to re-read from page one. I'm having problems with my vision over the past couple of weeks (blurry eyes) which makes reading really hard. I'm going to catch up with my other games first and then tackle this one after.

[Wingback]

I'm here as well finally. Going to catch up.

[Wingback]

Going to start from the beginning with the knowledge that FA_Q2 and BBT are town. I think my scumread on FA_Q2 affected a few other reads and I need a fresh look. I realize this took very long. I wasn't feeling up to reading forty pages straight but I'm back in the game now. These are mostly my notes but I'd appreciate responses to any direct questions. This is half the game from pages one to twenty roughly to the point where I first replaced in. I'll do the remaining half tomorrow and then consolidate all my reads in another post.

I was "eww"-ing at Lane because money is not necessarily part of the town wincon.

Money buys power roles. Power roles in town hands gets us closer to winning. Wanting money is null. Are you arguing that town should try to win without PRs? I bring this up because your early attack on Lane feels opportunistic, and I want you to justify this position.

lane strikes me as the impulsive type. I don't get the feeling that his bet was part of a gambit, but it's something to still consider going forward.

While I agree that Lane is town, I have trouble following how you reached this conclusion. Is this from previous experience with Lane or just based off of his posts in thread? Can you point to specific posts or games that gave you this impression?

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Nearly everything about Infinity's Post 63 reads town. The callout of MM's post as forced, agreeing with RedCoyote about Lane (I find Infinity's townread on Lane more natural than RedCoyote's because it fits with the rest of Infinity's posts and scumhunting style where he often tries to avoid the "obvious" traps and townreads people for what can be considered traditionally scummy moves), and his readslist at the end. I can see why he's scumreading MM, townreading Lane, has gut townreads on Persivul and MoI, but seems conflicted on RedCoyote.

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I don't see lane's bet as scummy. That said, once we see the hands, I may feel differently.

How will seeing the hands affect your read on Lane? If you think he's impulsive and just making a splash, why does his hand matter? He could just be impulsively making a bluff (which is what I think actually happened).

The question everyone has to ask themselves, if you were townMM, would you have called scumlane? If so, why didn't you? If not, why would townMM do this?

The proper answer here is, "I would've called, but my hand was poor".

This is a fairly obvious answer so why ask the question in the first place? It does seem like you wanted to frame the issue in a way that portrayed MM as scum especially given you voted him. It reads like part of a case rather than a neutral question which doesn't match up to your later claim that you were just begging consideration for a point of view.

I rely a lot on meta...I liked 91 and 92, but 93 is weak at best. Another player I'll have to meta.

Did you follow up with this? If so, what games did you read and what is your analysis?

I called to break that, as I am quite confident in my hand.

This doesn't make sense. Others have pointed out that this doesn't make sense. If your plan was to stop scum from transferring money to each other, why not wait to see who called Lane's hand? You never answer this question and dance around the issue. For instance, in your response to Qubixes in Post 126, you go off on a tangent about how you wanted everyone else to spare their money. Why would you want that? You'd want scum to call. If town put their money in, you get it which is good since from your POV, you would know that you are town. It doesn't matter if you miscalculated the price of the abilities as it's more a question of scum revealing themselves by calling. Why didn't you wait for that to happen?

Going gung-ho is a bad idea. Who is going to follow if I just say "X is scum"? No one.

So, because you think no one is going to follow you if you just say "X is scum," you decided that a better way to get followed is to say "X is null with very, very slight scumpoints?" It sounds like you think you made a mistake having a readslist full of nulls, and now you are scrambling to explain it away.

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Qubixes' followup in Post 139 reads town and is exactly the line I wanted to pursue and I also liked the original push in Post 98. I liked Infinity's Post 135, particularly the part about assuming that RedCoyote was townreading Lane and then backtracking/saying it's dependent on Lane's hand. Lane has been town in pretty much every post so far and I doubt I need to bring them all up and spell it out. I will point out that Post 183 nails all my issues with MM on the head.

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I felt like mm has been rather open about his actions and stances and has definitely not tried to avoid engagement.

In what way was MM open about his actions and stances? I don't understand your townread on MM at all.

I don't consider money going to the hands of one townie bad per se

So you agree that money going into the hands of one townie isn't necessarily bad. I thought the entire reason you chose not to wait was because you didn't want townies to put their money in the pot and you just wanted to snag scum-Lane's money. This doesn't compute.

Thinking about it, why would scum voluntarily forfeit their money like that? If lane was scum, he'd have just screwed himself over, and massively.

Earlier you used this as a reason to call Lane scum when he was under pressure. Now that the wagon dissipated, you backtracked and you are calling him town.

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Being afraid of the possibility of someone being scum because you don't know their scumplay (Post 187) seems like a town thought process from MM though. I've wondered that as town myself in some games.

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I don't like the entirety of Something_Smart's Post 188. It looks like he's spraying everyone with questions without taking any sort of stances himself. Why ask infinity about his townread on Persivul? Are you scumreading one of them? The questions to several others are also oddly-phrased (asking people whether they understood others) and loaded which makes me uneasy. It's a mild suspicion mitigated by the fact that I think at least a part of that is playstyle-based. I'd be interested in seeing if there was any follow-up here and if so, what conclusions he drew.

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As far as reads go, I don't really have legit reads. Infinity looks pretty town to me, but once again I don't wanna trust myself too much on him.

I find it hard to believe that the only "legit" read you have eight pages into the game is the guy that's defended you several times.

As previously stated, Persivul would rank as my top townread at this time. At this point, lane would be followed shortly thereafter.

Wait. Your initial read on Lane was that he was impulsive, but you took care to say that you weren't townreading him. You also said "

I don't see lane's bet as scummy. That said, once we see the hands, I may feel differently.

So, we saw the hands, lane had a terrible one, and your reaction is to upgrade him to second strongest townread? How did that happen?

About mm, I think he's been less careful (the inconsistencies people mention are an example of this) than noob scum would be

MM is one of my suspects and one thing I wanted to check on based on the newest posts that I've looked through was why you were townreading him. Nothing about his posts looked town (see this wall for some of my issues with his play), and I can't follow your townread here in the slightest. I understood why you were scumreading FA_Q2 and RedCoyote. I understand why you were townreading Lane and at some point, Qubixes because I've reached largely similar conclusions. This one read has been a complete mystery. Qubixes's Post 340 is a good case too and one of the reasons I have a townread on that slot.

I maintain, apparently to [MoI's] chagrin, that I don't find [MoI] particularly scummy at this time

Your read on MoI was actually pretty ambiguous. You said things like "

Your incriminatory rhetoric is not appreciated

" and "

I'm beginning to notice a pattern of you "forgetting" or "not paying attention" to events or activities that should would concern town-aligned players attempting to scumhunt honestly

" in Post 260 which suggest that you suspect him. What was your read on MoI based on all the posts he made and what's your read on Farside now? I'm still catching up so if you've already provided a read on Farside, you can disregard the second question.

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Fire Assasin's posts on pages 18 and 19 point fairly strongly to town. The MM's Post 446 accusing Fire of "stirring things up" was terrible and looks like he was taking advantage of Fire's abrasive personality. While his reasons for scumreading MM are different from mine, his push reads genuine. His plan for gaming the system to bulletproof our strongest townread also comes from a town motivation since he's wanting it to be on my slot which I know is town, and not as an excuse to protect himself although I disagree with it for the reasons I laid out before.

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If it's the former, that's really unhelpful (although almost certainly correct)

Infinity didn't include your biggest scumread at that time (MM) so why are you saying that his list of six scumreads is almost certainly correct?

You're the same player that expressed reservations about the MM wagon just a couple of days ago (see: 294 and 384).

This is a ridiculous stretch. I clicked those links expecting BBT to have taken some sort of stance on MM but after clicking on them, I see completely generic posts by BBT where he never mentioned MM at all. I suppose on some level you could interpret BBT naked voting infinity as him taking a stand against the leading wagon on MM but it seems much more likely that he's barely paying attention to the game. It reads like you are trying to find an excuse to push BBT. Also, the first link where he says "any chance of a real wagon developing" was posted when he was voting MM so I'm not following how this advances your argument that BBT was uncomfortable about an MM wagon and later opportunistically put him at L-1.

I've been wondering about an MM and RedCoyote team because those were my two scumreads independently but the early push on MM by RC made me lean towards them not being partnered together. However, this push away from MM alleviates those concerns and I don't think MM/RC are mutually exclusive. Post 497 definitely plays up his involvement in the MM wagon.

So, that's the end of page twenty which is about half the game. I'll stop here, pick up the other half tomorrow and then summarize my final reads in a more concise post. If you need anything elaborated on, let me know.

[Wingback]

I haven't caught up but really quick since you are online, What's your read on RedCoyote?

[Wingback]

Catching up from page twenty-one. Finished up to page thirty-eight. I wanted to get current but I'm totally exhausted and there are a lot of recent walls so I'll get to those tomorrow.

I think you and Pers directly pushed MM more than I did, but I think I was most effective at stopping the opposition, so to speak, from forming other wagons outside of MM.

1) Who is this oppposition? 2) What wagons were they trying to form? 3) How did you stop them (links to posts and arguments you made where your arguments derailed a wagon)?

Also, farside, you must act on your poker hand in your next post or you will get scum points from me. Same with Wingback. I'm putting you two on notice.

What does acting on a poker hand have anything to do with alignment?

Infinity feels a bit too nice to me, white-knighting and whatnot, but he's still my top townread because I doubt he's scum hiding behind that to make a friend of me

Scum white-knighting town is not uncommon, and if he's a bit "too nice," why is he your top townread?

I'm very disappointed that my MM/FA theory didn't end up being true, and I think that flip means that MM is town too.

You had your vote on MM before you moved it to FA_Q2. Why does an FA_Q2 townflip mean that MM is town? If you didn't have independent reasons to think he was scum, why were you voting him?

Self-consciousness isn't a scumtell though. If I didn't have a lane to vote for, I'd be doing the same. Farside's next post better be convincing tho.

Hate the hedging here. Defends Farside against Shadow while at the same time setting up to push Farside. Why even add that last bit?

100% agree with Lane's Post 888. In fact, nearly everything The MM said this game sounds like bullshit.

I thought that Bulletproof went to any player who won his hand by himself. Ties can happen, and all.

This doesn't make any sense. If you correctly thought that "

if only a single player wins a hand on any Day phase they will be Bulletproof the following Night phase"

, as it mentions in the OP, then you would know that you weren't bulletproof since I won a hand too. If you incorrectly thought that all players who won hands in a day became bulletproof that night, why didn't you as Lane said, suggest that we all win a hand?

I'll voice another suspicion of mine: farside sounds to me like the kind of "in-control" self-defined intelligent people who I'd expect a BBT kill from. VOTE: farside

Why Farside as opposed to say, RedCoyote? It seemed to me that RedCoyote and BBT knew each other well from the past. When BBT got killed, that was the first person I considered looking back at.

[MoI] may have wanted to get out of dodge this game because he thought he was setting himself up to get pressured.

I find that hard to believe. Played with him in Mini 1800. He was scum there and suspected plenty but he stuck with the game and his team ended up winning. If you are actually arguing that you think he left the game because he was scum and afraid of getting pressured, that's a ridiculous assumption. You've spent most of D1 telling Farside how you and she are town together but a BBT kill suddenly makes you decide that your townreads are wrong? This reads opportunistic considering Farside was getting some heat from a few others as well.

I guess you just skimmed over the part where I said I had to essentially rethink my entire game and throw D1 out the window. Two of my biggest scumreads just flipped town.

This isn't accurate. BBT was your top scumread but when did FA_Q2 become one of your biggest scumreads? All you said about FA_Q2 was that you are not opposed to his lynch but you didn't think that was the best we could do which sounds like you had him as null at worst. You said the same for MM but MM seemed to be a higher scumread than FA_Q2. Why do BBT and FA_Q2 flipping town means you throw all your D1 scumreads out the window? In fact, BBT hopped onto the MM wagon putting him at L-1 which was what triggered you to jump off of MM and go for BBT instead. Now that we know BBT was in fact town, that should alleviate at least some of your reservations about an MM lynch.

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That's the end of page thirty-eight. Going to get current tomorrow. I have a few comments on optimal poker strategy as well which I'll get into, and then summarize all my reads in detail.

[Wingback]

Alright. Finally got caught up. Most of this is fairly recent (this is from page thirty-nine to the current page) and I'd appreciate responses to questions and comments.

Infinity's illogical defense of MM, makes me wanna lynch MM even more.

Why? If Infinity is illogically defending MM, shouldn't that make you want to lynch Infinity as opposed to MM? From your POV, either he would either be scum defending a partner or scum defending town so why would it make you want to lynch MM more? Unless you think Infinity is town defending scum in which case, his defense shouldn't affect your read on MM.

By the way, why are you scumreading MM in the first place? The only thing I found was Post 819 and you agreeing with Lane's point in Post 910 after he questioned you about it. That doesn't look like a strong enough read for you to conf-bias Infinity's defense as making MM more scummy. What do you think of MM's response to that point?

You said you'd read the game upon replacing in. Did you get a chance to do that, and were you scumreading FA_Q2 at the time you have intent? After reading through your ISO, I haven't seen you make many comments on the actual game and you have been talking a lot about money and abilities despite complaining about that in Post 852. Considering you said you were "waiting for my catchup," do you have any comments?

You can't say that I seem like I see the game as just me and then everybody else and say I am not town. That doesn't make sense. You saying I am third party?

Making a note of this post. This happened on D1 long before the vig claim. MM never called Fire a third party in Post 446. He just said that Fire sees the game from his subjective viewpoint and only analyzes things from his own POV as opposed to an objective one - or at least, that's how I interpret it. People can read it for themselves and see if they agree. Fire interprets it in Post 448 as MM calling him a third party. That seems very hyperaware of any third party accusations.

I still think Fire is likelier town than third party as there's no reason for him not to shoot if he were a serial killer and a glance through his D1 posting shows that he does seem very unsure of his reads. Vig is just a bad claim for mafia who wasn't in imminent danger of a lynch but I'm also not sure why he would claim vig at that point as town given scum could potentially roleblock him.

The real question is "why should he be a town read"? He's been antagonizing me for a while with barely any reason.

Do you actually think antagonizing someone is a scumtell? You used that for Farside before as well. I read through this entire post and on one hand, I think the sheer effort makes you slightly more town, on the other hand, a whole bunch of stuff you said are either you misinterpreting what Fire is saying or just giving it a scummy twist for example claiming that he's "avoiding debate" in Post 434 and "adds some extra fuel" in Post 659 when he was just answering a direct question. Voting his counterwagon is null and something he has to do as either alignment. The two legitimate points you brought up were his first vote on FA_Q2 and the fact that he never explained what it was about your play that seemed informed. The odd thing is, you are being very antagonistic to everyone here. While that's not a scumtell, if you are town, you should be able to see based on your own antagonism, that it is not scummy in the slightest so I don't know why you are claiming it is.

This kind of question requires a real fleshed out response that I'm not in the position to do it justice at this time. How deep do you want me to get?

I want to hear this. Part of the issue I have with you is a lack of in-depth thoughts especially since D2 began. At the very least, going deep into this might help me get a read on you.

I think scum!mm would just make a more defined reads list instead of having to rely on his explanation./I don't think scum!mm would have questioned my townread on him

The reason MM gave for having a lot of null reads in his initial readslist was that he didn't think that if he stated strong reads, people would follow him. But why would anyone follow him if he gives null reads with slight leans?

I agree that scum are slightly less likely to question townreads on them but it's not a strong towntell. I just finished a game (Mini 1800) where I defended a scum player under pressure (Karnos) for a while and he "scumread" me for pushing him. If scum think that can get them even more towncred, they'll happily question townreads on them. Questioning townreads also tells scum what they've been doing right so far so they can keep doing it.

Your other points are reasonable but not enough to outweigh the mass of reasons I'm scumreading him for. If you want to go over my issues with him I listed out in my previous two catchup posts, I'd be happy to read and consider them.

If the first 4 are misinterpreted, I think you should go and check around the next 90 or so. Voluntary ignoring.

See, this tells me you don't care that you misinterpreted a bunch of points and just want to use quantity to compensate for quality. Spam a bunch of reasons and when told those are wrong, you implicitly concede that and tell people to look at the other ones. It's unreasonable to expect anyone to go over each one of your points when you don't even care to defend the ones you got called out on.

no one wants to dredge up old arguments to refight. No one really cares. So it would do me a favor to see this game waste energy voting me after all I've done D1.

What have you done D1? You by your own admission spent most of the day pushing The MM who you now think is town and fending off counterwagons, you made a short push on BBT who flipped town, and voted FA_Q2 as a compromise and he flipped town as well. While being wrong is understandable, I also don't see your D1 play as something overwhelmingly town and the way I figure out your alignment is by questioning that, something you didn't want to rehash. If you want to talk about current events, I'm happy to do that and am very interested in seeing a list of your reads now and in particular, your reasons for scumreading Farside beyond simply reversing your reads based on the nightkill. What is your evaluation of her play by itself?

[Wingback]

I'm not 100% set on The MM as a scumread. I've got three strong townreads and the rest of the pool {The MM, RedCoyote, Something_Smart, Shadow_step, and Fire Assassin} I'm still trying to decide where the scum are although RedCoyote and The MM stuck out to me the most. Eleven players make it a bit more difficult as I'm not entirely sure what I'm looking for: two scum, three scum, two scum and a traitor, two scum and an SK? There have been a few of the most recent posts that made me second-guess my scumread on MM, that and just how hard he's trying even under intense pressure. But I can see some reason to townread nearly everyone else too. Who are your top scumreads at this point?

[Wingback]

@Something_Smart

1) You skipped over a few questions I had for you in my catchup. The following is the most important one so I'd to see you elaborate on it.

I'm very disappointed that my MM/FA theory didn't end up being true, and I think that flip means that MM is town too.

You had your vote on MM before you moved it to FA_Q2. Why does an FA_Q2 townflip mean that MM is town? If you didn't have independent reasons to think he was scum, why were you voting him?

2) Can you also explain why you think there's one scum in Farside and RedCoyote?

[Wingback]

Rereading the iso on Shadow, I missed how non-existent he has been throughout the game and he just seems to lob questions and throw shade on players without any reason or it.

My scum order is more looking like this:

RC, Shadow and MM

Yes MM stays there.
I'm not letting that go any time soon and if Fire is telling the truth (which I don't really see why he would be) I can't imagine a 2 player scum team with the PR's that have claimed.

Did you read Qubixes' (Shadow's predecessor) ISO as well? What do you think of him?

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Qubixes spent the entirety of his time in the game tunneling The MM. Unless you are claiming that he was bussing (which is heavily unlikely given how he pushed The MM), I don't see him on a team with The MM at all.

You (Farside) have been tunneling The MM for a majority of D2. The fact that you so effortlessly throw Shadow_step into your scumreads without putting any real effort to read him makes me think my townreads are all wrong and you could be scum. If you genuinely were trying to read them, you'd be taking into account Qubixes' posts and not just make an easy push on Shadow for his low engagement.

As far as Shadow himself, I was townreading Qubixes but I could see him being partnered with MoI (Farside's predecessor). Their interactions have the hallmarks of MoI-distancing (see MoI's interactions with Karnos/Mathblade in Mini 1800 and the scum PT in NY195 for more examples).

I think that's probably why I'm not getting a confident scumread anywhere in my POE pool. My townlist is probably wrong and I should re-read the game from a different angle maybe consdering Farside(MoI)/Shadow(Qubixes). Going to wait for The MM replacement to help me figure out that slot.

[Wingback]

I also have some very serious doubts about The MM flipping scum. His latest posts have been so over-the-top levels of ridiculously frustrated posting, and I think he responded adequately to my push on him.

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Fold

I need to think about a few things before I vote.

This is a very self conscious post.

You didn't want to vote anyone....yeah okay, but why do you feel the need to say that..?

You never follow up on this. What happened?

[Wingback]

VOTE: shadow

Let's do this Farside, I didn't think rc is scum, and the mm, well I guess we'll give that spot the benefit of the doubt for now

Why don't you see rc scum.

I gave a reason I want to see why you think his lack of doing scum hunting is town.

Why wouldn't you compromise with Lane here given he voted your other scumread?

[Wingback]

1) yes I read quibix, if you remember I had him on my scum list when I read through.
2) scum bus. They can bus hard too. Mm was already being looked at so why no join late, which quibix did.
3) I'm thinking before I switch.

Yeah, Post 564. You said "

Quibixies:moves into null scum. Thus far focus only on MM and has add zilch else to the game.

" At the time you had MM as town so, that was reasonable. When you started going after The MM, I think you'd have seen that qubixes actually made a lot of good points about him (Post 98, Post 139 and Post 340). Qbx pushing MoI to explain his defense of The MM in Post 266 also sounded like he genuinely wanted to get the MM lynched. Why go out of his way to press the issue when he has a strong town player derailing his partner's lynch?

What do you think about me essentially doing the same thing

How were you doing the same thing? You were townreading The MM all along. My issue with Farside is that she went through ISOs and came up with The MM and Shadow_step as partners. I think that's unlikely based on how Qubixes pushed MM. But it does make sense if Farside was scum throwing in two easy targets together in her scumpile (or bussing Shadow/RedCoyote).

[Wingback]

Can I say something that may come off as rude but your accusing me of not seeing how quibix pushed mm.
But you seem to miss that I just pushed rc/shadow into the spotlight and your accusing me of being scum with them.
Are you typically Hypocritical?

It just a peeve of mine when people do that.

Anyways if you think rc is scum please vote for him.

I agree with you that scum bus. I'm not asking you to discount every pair that push each other. I'm saying that Qubixes pushing The MM didn't seem like a bus. But MoI's interactions with both Qubixes and RedCoyote are well within the range of what I've seen him do as scum with his partners. I played with MoI once and he was scum (Mini 1800). What was memorable to me was the distancing he did with his buddies but always finding a way to lynch town if at all possible. A scumgame of his I read (NY195) followed the same pattern. In fact, he rarely townreads his partners. His play here w.r.t RedCoyote and qubixes seems like a lot of noise but not a lot of real follow-up. That doesn't necessarily mean you are partners but it's something I need to look at more closely.

Hmm I forgot about that.

Now that I brought it to your attention, what do you think?

[Wingback]

@Farside, I'm not seeing Lane as scum here. This game has gone on for a month and he's been obvtown in nearly every post he's made so far. If he's not scumreading RedCoyote but was scumreading Shadow, I don't think it's at all unreasonable for him to go in that direction when you pointed them both out as scumreads. I have a hard time buying that all of his obvtown posting still made you paranoid because he didn't vote RC with you at the time. Are you as town prone to bouts of paranoia?

[Wingback]

I haven't decided where to vote by the way. I PM'd the mod for a deadline extension and he hasn't replied yet but I'm sure he'll give us one considering the replacement so I don't want to rush anything.

[Wingback]

I don't know. Like I said, I thought Qubix made some great points about The MM but Shadow_step hasn't done anything to make me think he's town.

[Wingback]

Ok you convinced me.

I read the games you linked, and you're right that RC gives a lot fewer solid stances as scum, like what he's doing in this game.

RC's scumminess is backed up by meta, where I guess shadow could just be bad town.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: RC

If RC flips town, we should be lynching shadow cause I'm pretty sure one of them is scum anyway

What was it exactly that swayed you? Mind giving me a recap of your impression of the games Farside linked? Some specific quotes from those games that swayed you would be nice too in showing me the differences between his town and scum play and why you feel his play here matches his scum play.

[Wingback]

I'm 109% sure on this and if I'm wrong I'll hear about it.

*flirts with wing*
Hi, would you be a doll and vote RC with me.
Pleeeeeeaaaassssseeeeee.
I can do jumping Jack's, my hubby says it's fun to watch the girls bounce.

I never just trust another player's read in mafia games without investigating them for myself. Also, you were pretty sure about FA_Q2 as well and you were wrong there so I don't know why you would expect that even if I was townreading you.

I can send you a virtual trampoline though to have fun bouncing while I rethink my views on the game!

Spoiler:

[Wingback]

Got a chance to look at a recent scumgame of The MM's. He was lynched D1. The first vote on him was placed here and over the next twenty pages (five rl days), he gets lynched here. He's super-uninvolved, trolls a bit, weakly pushes on his accusers (Wisdom in that case), tries to laugh off the wagon and then folds. Compare that to the ridiculous amount of effort he put in here and how much more in-depth his reads are, and how genuinely frustrated he was, I'm pretty positive he's town. I can't believe anyone who was in that game is scumreading him here.

@FireAssasin,

mind explaining why you weren't taking that into account when pushing The MM?

Current townreads: Lane, The MM.

I'll go over all the players again one by one to figure out who else I should be adding there.

[Wingback]

Someone asked me about extending the deadline for the replacement. I'll extend the Day phase deadline if a replacement is actually found to give them time to get adjusted, but I won't extend the Day phase if one isn't found by then.

Yeah, but expecting us to secure a lynch without while one slot down isn't really fair though. We need five to lynch and if we only have eight players total, our lynch options are always going to be sub-optimal.

[Wingback]

I don't see what's funny about it. I thought it best early on in D2 to float a farside vote, lacking any other palatable alternatives. I have conceded to being gone for the past three days. I am now opportunistically voting the Shadow wagon for lack of an alternative or the political capital to push for an alternative.

This is not a scum claim; I'm being realistic.

How did you miss that I was suspicious of Farside? What do you think about my points there?

[Wingback]

I don't see an organic thought process behind your Shadow vote at all. You say that Qubixes was a weak town read, then vote Shadow out of self-preservation. Then quote a post of his asking him to explain the "intensity" behind his reaction. That looks like you made up your mind and are just looking to make Shadow seem "scummy" rather than developing a read on him.

Also, you missed my question asking you about your reads. Was that intentional?

[Wingback]

VOTE: RedCoyote

I'm still suspicious of Farside and I complained to the mod in PM about how force-removal of a player, and then not extending the deadline is unfairly tilted against the town no matter what The MM's alignment is. Hopefully, he'll extend it. In case that doesn't happen, prefer a RedCoyote lynch over Shadow. Just to be clear, if he flips scum and I die tonight,

do not

clear Farside for pushing RedCoyote.

[Wingback]

Whatever he flips, Infinity's jump onto RedCoyote and then saying that we should lynch Shadow if he flips town is pretty bad. I also think odd-night cop with an innocent on the most universally townread player is a very convenient claim as scum. This is especially suspicious if both Shadow and RedCoyote are town but applies even if one of them flips scum. He shouldn't have this much trouble pointing out specific posts if he truly did go over RedCoyote's meta.

The only people I'd say are town at this point are Lane and The MM. Never lynch them. I'll re-read the game and add more people to this list if there's enough time.

@RedCoyote,

yeah I was expecting additional reads. Who are your top scumreads irrespective of deadline? I'm well aware that there was an impending deadline and I don't blame you for voting Shadow in self-preservation. It's more the fact that I find your scumread on him very dubious and forced, not based on solid reasoning.

[Wingback]

Farside sticking with RedCoyote after I called her scum with Shadow is incredibly scummy regardless of anyone else's alignment. The reasoning that she later came up with (that Lane could be scum with RedCoyote and is therefore pushing Shadow) is a stretch and Lane's the most unquestionably town player in the game. It seemed like she wanted to re-inforce my suspicion of Shadow and make me push for his lynch while either bussing RedCoyote or pushing for a RedCoyote mislynch. Add to that her being wrong about FA_Q2, and that I think she's wrong on The MM, and Lane, all of that adds up to a lot of pushes on town which I think is more likely to come from a scum player, especially one as experienced as Farside.

I'd much rather vote Farside and worry about who she's bussing next phase. Anyone with me?

[Wingback]

@Shadow_step,

still need a couple of things answered from you: 1) Can you walk me through how your read on Farside changed? You say in Post 828 that she made a very self-conscious post, and elaborate in Post 843. Then suddenly in Post 1147, you sheep her onto RedCoyote seemingly forgetting the earlier suspicion and have her as nullish town in Post 1159. Then again in Post 1208, you accuse her of being essentially non-existent and misrepping you. 2) How has Farside been non-existent this day phase? She's been one of the most active members. 3) You never answered my question on why you were scumreading The MM in the first place. Mind giving me a quick recap?

[Wingback]

@Farside, I'm not using myself as a basis for reading you. I'm comparing your play to a recent game I read (Summer Waltz) in which you were very focused and scumhunted well. Contrast that with Alfred Hithcock. Your early play was a lot more town here than it was there. But some of your play reminds me of your later posts there.

[Wingback]

Okay, I'll read it. I'm not discounting that I could be wrong about you but I have trouble seeing most of your scumreads as scum. I talked about Lane already. What do you think of my points on The MM in Post 1292? Is his slot still a scumread of yours? I know you threw out a few theories but what's your serious take on the game (as in not paranoia about Lane but actual scumreads)?

[Wingback]

I want to know why you arrived to that conclusion. I haven't played too many games so far on this site, but when "A" has said X and Y are t vs t, "A" has more often than not been scum.
I've seen this done a lot for pre flip town credit especially the lynch is between X and Y.

Links please.

[Wingback]

UNVOTE:

Need to re-read Infinity and Shadow_step. I think there are potential partner interactions there.

[Wingback]

@Wingback, read on MM

It all started off at the end of day 1 when MM tries to put shade on lane to set him up for a lynch on day 2.
After that I isoed him and these things stuck out.

In post 90 he gives a readlist which is basically commentary and he calls a lot of people null, therefore making it very easy for him to change his reads on players whithouy explaining much.

I have the same probkem Moi has with that post which he points our in post107.

In post 61 he mentions the 1250 abilities.

In post 130 he says he made a mistake of assuming they were for $1000, which I think he said just to get lane off his back.

1. If you ISO'd MM, how were you reading MoI's posts?
2. Why is mentioning the $1250 abilities scummy?
3. What do you make of the fact that MoI made the same mistake in assuming that the $1250 abilities were for $1000?

[Wingback]

Looks like the current VC is something like this:

redcoyote(3): farside, shadow step, infinity
shadow step(4): lane, something smart, Red coyote, fire assassin
Fire Assassin: MM
Not Voting: Wingback

With 5 to lynch and countdown: (expired on 2016-07-27 01:22:00)

---

Starting with qubixes, I've played with him before so I know his towngame. Reading through his only scumgame on site, he replaces in here and spends the rest of the game trying unsuccessfully to catch up. His reads and cases are somewhat weak and flimsy. His play here is nothing like that since he latched onto The MM early in the game and never stopped tunneling him. His points were a lot stronger and I agreed with most of them. It also reminds me of Mini 1800 where we both town. However, he didn't seem to have the time or the motivation in his scumgame to catchup and was already in the hole because of his predecessor.

Moving onto Shadow, I got a chance to look through a scumgame of his (Newbie 1712). He gets lynched D3 so just reading those six pages or so gives me the impression that he uses a lot of ATE when going down and fakes townie emotions pretty well. That tells me that what I thought were towntells earlier are null at best and his play here does remind me of how he went down as scum. I can't find any distinguishing markers for his play.

ISO'ing Shadow here, I don't like that some of the ATE in Post 1322 ("

If this is town, we deserve to lose

") seems similar to his scumplay. My biggest issue with him though is that he isn't scumhunting elsewhere besides responding to posts and questions to and about him. That's the biggest difference I noticed in his ISO in Open 644 where he was town. There was a noticeable focus on scumhunting outside of self-centered responses and aggressively pushing players even when their energies were directed at people other than Shadow. Based on that, I want to vote Shadow but based on Qubixes, I don't. The other thing I've been mulling over is that Shadow's interactions with Infinity fit into the scum-to-scum mold very well. Infinity calling out Shadow to play the game in Post 1149 reads as "c'mon partner, get in here and play." Shadow has infinity as nullish scum, believes that his result on me is probably fake, pushes The MM more because Infinity is defending him which I don't buy. He should be pushing Infinity here but he never votes him only having him as a latent scumread. I also think his reasoning for suspecting RedCoyote (that RC called Fire vs SS town v town) is weak considering Shadow did the same in his towngame.

I'm really conflicted. I'll look over how Infinity and qubixes interacted before I lay down a vote.

[Wingback]

If you can think of that maybe you maybe understand my issues more with RC and Fire currently.

I'm thinking RC/Fire or Infinity/Shadow based on how the wagons turned out, both pairs make sense. What are your thought on Inifinity investigating the universal townread?

[Wingback]

@Farside, what do you think of Fire's vig claim? I have a hard time seeing scum fake-claim vig under no pressure but it also doesn't make sense as town since he could be potentially roleblocked or otherwise interfered with by scum. If he were scum though, that would give him an excuse for why he isn't vig-killing anyone. He could always say "I claimed so scum rb'd me."

But then Infinity's claim could easily come from scum that didn't want to be vigged and made a hasty claim (odd-night cop seems inelegant for game design and convenient) but if he were town that was threatened with a vig-shot, he'd obviously have to claim as well.

[Wingback]

@RedCoyote, what do you think of Qubixes? You said he was a townread but not a strong one and it seems like part of the reason you are voting Shadow is to avoid your own lynch. You also don't seem sure about Farside. So, I'm interested in hearing who your actual scumreads are when you take deadline and self-preservation out of the equation. In a vacuum, if you could lynch anyone at this point regardless of feasibility, who would it be? I want to know because it seems like you are using the lack of ability of drive a wagon as an excuse for not having actual solid reads.

Your positioning of one of Farside and Shadow being scum but not both is another issue I have. It would be easy as scum to push two mislynches if you set it up so that they are independent scumreads but not together. That way, after the first mislynch, you can go after your other "suspect" without much changes to your reads. This "one of them but not both" doesn't make sense to me since you earlier agreed that there is merit to my theory that they are partners. Farside is now actively pushing you as a counterwagon to Shadow which could re-inforce them both as partners if you found them individually scummy.

I think you are overstating Farside's "viciousness" to the point it's starting to seem manipulative. Nothing she did in the game so far was objectionable or unexpected so I have no idea where that's coming from. It's like you keep appeasing me saying that you are also scumreading her but keep backing out of actually stating that you think she's scum.

Regarding your interactions with MoI, it has nothing to do with your history and more to do with the fact that you never commit to a read on him or even try to read him. You discredit his posting but also townread him and it's confusing not being able to follow your read there overall. It doesn't matter that I wasn't in the game from the start, if you really want to go back and respond to my catchup, I'm happy to hear you out. More importantly though, I want to hear if you have any issues with Qubixes's posts (since you want his slot lynched) and your current reads if your survival wasn't at stake.

[Wingback]

You' saying Farside is your biggest scumread doesn't track with your earlier comment in Post 1302 that Shadow_step was the better vote.

On qubixes, he was actually very tunnely in the game I played with him as town. In his scumgame that I glanced through, he had a fairly wide focus on all the players. So, I think that's at worst null. At best, a towntell for him. I'm wondering whether the replacement is alignment-indicative though. He didn't replace out of Mini 1800 which was running concurrently at the same time and he was town there. But it's not a strong point.

I have to leave in 20 minutes so I'll vote before then but still leaning RedCoyote. I'll be back before deadline I think.

[Wingback]

Also, the "tunnely" tell for Qubixes seems like you ripped it off of MoI's departing post (Post 462).

[Wingback]

I did misunderstand the "better" in quotes. Not trying to "catch" you in anything. If I can get you to towntell, that would be just as great an outcome. I think deciding who to lynch between you and Shadow has been a pretty tough decision and I'm trying my best to figure out where I should put my vote. Even if I'm wrong, the additional content would be useful later on in the game.

I need to leave but I'll hold off voting for a couple of hours until I'm back. I'll definitely be back before deadline so that shouldn't be an issue. Hopefully, at least one player on each wagon is also online to ensure we don't have a no lynch.

[Wingback]

The intense ATE sounds very similar tonally to RedCoyote's ISO in this scumgame that I went through. (Infinity's sig doesn't apply here, funnily enough)

VOTE: RedCoyote

I'm leaving so I'd rather put my vote down now so people have the chance to switch.

Lane and MM are townreads. I can see RedCoyote/Fire or Infinity/Shadow potential scumteams. While I don't suspect Farside and Something_smart as much now, if I die tonight, the safe play would be to re-read both of them in light of flips and don't give anyone a free pass.

[Wingback]

redcoyote(4): farside, shadow step, infinity, Wingback
shadow step(4): lane, something smart, Red coyote, fire assassin
Fire Assassin: MM
Countdown in (expired on 2016-07-27 01:22:00)

Someone needs to switch.