Mini 1826: The Purge - Game Over

[Realeo]

Normally, when I wake up, I will missed the RVS due to time zone difference.

Uniquely, I don't miss the RVS this time, since there's no RVS to begin with.

Hello people!

[Realeo]

My first impression scums are {pisskop,Kuroi,Shaddowez}

pisskop and Kuroi are legit accusations. Shadowez is more to least town lean.

Time travel to the end and see if I get 3of3

Spoiler: PS:

This is a serious accusation. Obviously, I will re-evaluate my analysis, but this is a serious accusation. Also obviously, this comes from guts. =D

[Realeo]

You tell your reason and I tell mine, shall we?

[Realeo]

It's Saturday morning here.

[Realeo]

Isn't it midnight in Britsh? Which means it's midnight? Technically, you are Saturday morning as well.

[Realeo]

Sue me for having D at geography.

[Realeo]

I am capable of seeing others train of thought.

You? "I am town" "Vote Epod Lady" "Vote Realeo" "Friday Night"

I was assuming that it's no longer RVS and you acted like it's still RVS. My observation said that town are having easier time leaving the RVS.

[Realeo]

I mean, other player at least setup speccing or talking about meta, and that's what I would expect from a town. You?

[Realeo]

On my understanding, the RVS ended when the setup spec enters or someone makes proper fos, because that is a substantial argument. Magna literally talk about setup like post #10? So the RVS is very short-lived.

[Realeo]

You guys always want to make glass etchings in the sand

I'm just trying to make a serious analysis.

Normally, I fancy a good RVS. But I can't do that in this game.

If you meta me, you will understand that my big guns are POE, voting pattern analysis, and night kill analysis.

VPA is going to be not that substantial since plurality vote is not necesarily a lynch. The context and the risk is different.

NKA is going to be not that substantial since everyone can litteraly commit that kill.

So my only big gun is POE, and I do POE by trying to catch people's logic. If the logic clops, then I can mark you as town, hence the POE.

I can't catch yours, pisskop.

[Realeo]

I guess you could meta me, but I doubt you will because nobody does. not properly.

I can use some help.

[Realeo]

Myeah, the meta check out. You pretty much roll like that.

Argument out of the window, then.

[Realeo]

This is so much fun, and is one of the reasons I love RVS.

I get to know who takes my early-game talk as anything but null.

Then what do you get?

[Realeo]

This is mini theme, so I only check his mini theme. I learned in my newbie game that you should only count recent games when doing meta, as I lynched a VT backed in my newbie game for metaing someone for their game that is like 2 years ago, so I picked his two earliest game. I only need to inspect his RVS because that's the scope of the talk.

The meta checks out.

In his meta, he talks a little bit more than a naked vote, but the attitude checks out.

[Realeo]

The problem with the meta is, I don't know if this implies if pisskop is town or scum. The meta only refutes my argument. I am putting pisskop at town lean because I do like the exchange.

Kuroi's defensiveness, though, is another beast. I explicitly said that my fos is gut feeling.

This is a serious accusation. Obviously, I will re-evaluate my analysis, but this is a serious accusation.

Also obviously, this comes from guts

. =D

Kuroi said.

This is so much fun, and is one of the reasons I love RVS.

I get to know who takes my early-game talk as anything but null.

So deductively:

[*]Scumreading initial reaction is scummy
[*]I scumread Kuroi's initial reaction
[*]Therefore, I am scummy

However,
[*]Scumreading initial reaction is scummy
[*]Kuroi scumread my initial reaction
[*]Therefore, Kuroi is scummy

Obviously, the logic above is circular and dumb,

but that's the point of the observation.

=/

That said, I don't necessarily put Kuroi as scum. The only reason I posted this is it seems most of you are Merkan, which means you are going to rabble rabble while I'm asleep. I'm only posting this so you have something to rabble rabble about.

[Realeo]

Meh, whatever.

[Realeo]

Let me explain something because my initial fos actually generates controversy. It is meant to be harmless guess.

I tried to make first reaction mafia post back in Open 648.

My first impression scum is {cytheflyguy,Franky}

Accuracy level : ????

And it generates quite a content. It's just meant to be a guess, not a push. I mean, I only used my voting power 4 pages later.

###

Back to this game. After the setup speculation, this game is slowing down, so I did that post. It's not a push, it's just a guess to advance the conversation. So for people who said that I'm trying too much, let me say two words, bitch plz.

[Realeo]

nobody gets meta so quick

Excuse me. I am an undergraduate student, ok? My reading speed is at my peak of its time.

Plus, there is something bottom shaped like a [+] that is called iso button. Two minutes/ game is definitely doable. The only thing that I can't master is Englizh.

The thing I don't like is that he stopped looking at meta after 4 minutes without getting any sort of read.

It is highly ironic that you make a joke of me how I am not competent then showed that yourself is not competent.

[1] The scope of the conversation is refuting the argument. I limit my search to that.

[2] Do you really expect me to build a read out of RVS?

[Realeo]

The argument!

I am capable of seeing others train of thought.

You? "I am town" "Vote Epod Lady" "Vote Realeo" "Friday Night"

I was assuming that it's no longer RVS and you acted like it's still RVS. My observation said that town are having easier time leaving the RVS.

I was questioning pisskop, pisskop said "look meta'. I did. The argument is refuted, end of business.

I have no argument anymore so I stopped talking. I like his conversation, so I put him at town lean.

[Realeo]

lane, it was page 4, not page 40. In page 40, I definitely will make a more complex read.

[Realeo]

Excellent! Then we speak the same language!

Method of research : POE. So instead of trying to find the actual scum, I try to eliminate town to whittle down to final 3.

Hypothesis 0 : pisskop is being giberish and not making senses. In my opinion, that is anti-town. As a result, he stays in the list.

Hypothesis 1 : pisskop argued that it is his nature, so it should be NAI.

Data : The mata

Conclusion : pisskop likes to giberrish. Therefore Hyphothesis 0 is rejected.

So my argument is out of the window.

So I started from scratch, right? I like my exchange with pisskop, so I put hit at town lean.

[Realeo]

pisskop
-> wiki
-> Open (This particular mini theme game is an open one. So my option is either theme game or open game. Did quick iso look and pisskop mostly replace in Theme judging from the first post number and the size doesn't really match (this is 13 players game. Most pisskop are 20 players) so Open it is.)
-> Open #610 (Kill all Townies) (Under the hydra of Alma Mater)
-> Open #597 (Jungle republic)

And he was being gibberish.

It's 1 town and 1 mafia game. Therefore, I said that I can't decide if this is town or mafia read.

The problem with the meta is, I don't know if this implies if pisskop is town or scum. The meta only refutes my argument.

[Realeo]

One does not meta RVS alone.

I am not building reads. I am only checking argument validity. Therefore, I do meta RVS alone.

[Realeo]

I can't understand how the concept of fact checking seems alien and weird.

[Realeo]

The real question is why gou would egen try to check those facts and whther or not you actually did that check or you are lying.

Why is being gibberish scummy for you? Did you also meta me for my gibberish?

1. I checked them because pisskop hinted it. We're sharing argument and he refuted my argument from meta

2. As I said. I was gutreading so I lower the bar. I can understand your gibberish. Pisskop however is only naked voting. I confront it.

Are you actually reading the exchange?

[Realeo]

Any question? Please read my exchange between piskopp first.

[Realeo]

On another point, lane, why do you insist that I should make a read out of meta? Especially from RVS. The scope of RVS is so narrow that I don't recall people make a

genuine

read out of it.

[Realeo]

Why is being gibberish scummy for you?

Let me try to clarify this.

Back when I was playing Epic Mafia--don't worry, I am already detoxificated from it--there is something that you can say as fillering.

Yours (shos) is not fillering. Your are dumbtelling. However, I don't think you are scum who is dumbtelling--thus the reason you are not part of the trio that I fos--but simply confused.

pisskop in my opinion is fillering.

Im town.

VOTE: Epod Lady

VOTE: realeo

I argued, "Why the hell that you naked voting when RVS is over." Pisskop argued (implicitly) that it's still RVS is his opinion. He said that in his meta, he gibber like that during RVS. I meta it and his statement checks out.

Then enter you, shos, who is suddenly making fuss of it.

[Realeo]

Most of you know I don't provide complete readlists, but here's a list of players I've decided I don't want to vote today:

PeregrineV, MagnaofIllusion, KuroiXHF, Realeo, Nosferatu, pisskop,

Kraska77

That leaves me with lane0168, shos, Vedith, Epod~lady, shaddowez for a current lynch pool

As always, preliminary reads are highly volatile and subject to change with more content provided.

P.S. Can we have one or two more discussion issues going in parallel with the current "Realeo bad. No, Realeo good" please?

Mine to explain Kraska77? I am completely null at Kraska, so I am actually surprised that her name showed up. If your reasoning is due the setup spec talk, then I am kinda confused why shos is not in the "safe list"? They are both throwing ideas into the ring as well??

[Realeo]

The only thing that bothers me is the dynamic of lane and shos.

I understand that you sometimes interrogate your town read.
I understand that you sometimes work together, and that's not necessarily buddying or scummy.

However, lane

townread

me and

scumread

shos.

How in the whole world, lane work with

shos

together to interrogate

me

?

I mean, when I mentioned my fos, I feel disgust (well, overkill, but you get my point.)

But lane seems to be laxed about it. This maybe incorrect conclusion, but I'm thinking either both shos and lane are scum or both shos and lane are town. No in between.

[Realeo]

The real tryhard here is lane
More votes on lane pls

Fuckin right. Everyone going 12+ hours without content besides "post tomorrow" is bullshit. Good post though. Your naked vote didn't seem like much, but the case you're laying down now on the guy trying to get shit going is undeniable.

Not defending, but as someone with different time zone than Merkan (12 hours. "You say good morning when it's good night.") , not having content is annoying. On other games, I don't need to push for content since on D1, I normally receive 3~5 pages of content per day when I sleep .

This game barely made a page in a day.

[Realeo]

BTW. How many of you soft V/LA during weekend? This may explains the lack of activity.

[Realeo]

Statistically speaking, this implies that we only need to strand when mafia are 3 people, right?

I mean, if we strand a goon, mafia is down from 2 kills -> 1.

But with 2 mafiosos and 1 mafia, mafia kill will only stay as 1 kill. Stranding can't damage scum.

[Realeo]

He kept getting one thing wrong abt the setup after the other and the thing he said about confirming the wrong role was unprovoked and looked incredibly scummy, I don't think he would have said that if he were scum.

Also mod was afk for a while iirc, so mod not correcting his conf is believable

To be honest, I won a lot of EpicMafia's game shos' way, which is why I mentioned dumbtelling. But the underlined thingy is potentially true.

[Realeo]

On policy I’d also like to strand kraska for repeated use of the phrase “tryhard” which is so inane it hurts my brain to have to read it.

This is actually a good point. Kraska, what do you mean by "tryhard". I mean, I always push hard, especially on the beginning of the game. Does this mean that if I play with you, you will keep scum reading my by default?

To be precise, what is the definition of "scum trying hard" and "town trying hard"? Vague responses may work but I personally believe in the concept of 'effort is NAI', so can't really see your perspective.

@Shos – since no-one bit on your “I have Kuroi scum meta” what does that say to you in general and about Kuroi specifically?

I personally found it NAI, but I shouldn't be answering for him.

[Realeo]

I never said anything about townreading you. Good try. -1

You defended me when voting Shos.

[Realeo]

Ok people. Change topic. What do you think of Vedith? Nobody mentioned like the last 5 pages, and he's not special enough to be left out of the discussion.

[Realeo]

I was on the same wavelength with you, until I checked Activity overview. Last post : 22 hours ago.

Can't really tell if he's lurking or simply inactive.

[Realeo]

gave it some idle thought.

im aware people are dancing around suggesting or bring up shot coordination.


so ill do it.

its, as i alluded to before, bad. we cant guarentte anyone not in a hood to not hoodwink us.
the only solution that alloews eg coordination is 3+ groups agreeing to shoot 1 person. which is a condition id insist upon were we to.

otherwise i believe we have enough epeen inthread to see deaths tonight

This won't work. Scum can just divert their kill.

If none of them being shot, easy 6 towns dead. 7-3, if I don't misintepret.

[Realeo]

well no. it does work let us find out that 2 scum failed to kill their target

theyd be claiming scum

You said 3+ groups.
= A is stranded

A is killed by (C) D E
D is killed by F (G) H
G is killed by B M [N]

If the in the (brackets) are the goon and in the [blocky brackets] is the strongman, they can divert it to:

A is killed by D E
D is killed by F H
G is killed by B M
E is killed by (C)
H is killed by (G)
M is killed by [N]

Pedit: I hate you.

[Realeo]

Some of you are adamant to drive me nuts. Are we going to "just" discuss the mechanics of the night action, and not scum hunt? If that's the case, you can all strand me, and -being stranded- it will force one goon to shoot me, while strongman shoots someone else. That guarantees 2 scum NKs and no Town kills, and you can start over from scratch tomorrow.

If you're really that stressed, why don't you make a new topic? I did with Vedith.

[Realeo]

Change of mood time!

VOTE: KuroiXHF

Obviously, I will review this vote late when Vedith and Lady returned. For the time being, I am comfortable with this vote.

[Realeo]

Oh God. I thought my vote will stop this setup spec. I am losing my touch.

[Realeo]

Let me put it this way.

This night killing agreement only works when everyone abides it, right?

I am not going to abide any of it when both masons are alive.

(Unless you can come with something that guarantees that both masons are alive)

And Pereginev, your plan sucks. If scum is odd, instead killing the even, he will kill another odd. Maximum of 9 town dead. 3 mafiaosos v 2 town. GGWP.

[Realeo]

Here's a rebuttal.

Even kill odd, right?

So the assumption is, if strongman is odd, he is auto killed. If strongman is even, he survives and the lynch pool cuts in 1/2.

But there is a way for strongman to survive as odd and not getting killed.

Spoiler: How?

It works where there are 2 consecutive scum:

#7 Strongman
#8 Mafia

#7 will not die. You will assume that 8 shot #7 and #7 barricaded.

And mate. Cut the lynch pool by half? How confindent are you that you will catch the scum in 1st lynch?

[Realeo]

guys the setup is symmetrical. We don't have to go 1-2 3-4 5-6 by PVs plan, we just have to decide which couples do that, which we can do by scumhunting. All we need is that the most scummy ones are defending.

This is potentially better but no cigar.

[Realeo]

Can we just, town, each town nominate three people that we want to kill and vouch that if we don't barricade, we will kill in the list.

Say, I nominate {Kuroi,Almost,MoI} just for illustration.

If I don't barricade, I vouch that I will kill in the list.

Obviously, if only person nominate a guy, that guy will not be shot, thus increasing the probability of a successful shot.

Less opportunity for Wifom.

[Realeo]

PereV is town, imo. At least not strong man.

[Realeo]

I'm not saying to make a list now. I was thinking like 3 days before deadline. We still have time to scumhunt. Why rush?

[Realeo]

Oh, a read list? I thought a kill list.

[Realeo]

guys the setup is symmetrical. We don't have to go 1-2 3-4 5-6 by PVs plan, we just have to decide which couples do that, which we can do by scumhunting. All we need is that the most scummy ones are defending.

This is potentially better but no cigar.

why not?
that kinda throws all that you say out the window lol

Eh? What did I say?

[Realeo]

Can we officially say that we have a plan and start over D1 as a normal scumhunting game, so that we can end today with a stranded guy and a list of 6 X shoots Ys?

HURT: NO

The X shoots Y only hits a maximum amount of 1 scum. My method of nominating kill and intuitively adjusting our kill can potentially eradicate all mafia if we make a perfect read.

[Realeo]

If a towny is stranded and strongman is not in the 6 Ys, then mafia may wifom by having nobody killed. Town will try to kill the stranded tomorrow by having another town kill him and mafia can potentially score 3 town deads.

[Realeo]

Sorry, that's a bad rebutal. I was semi-tired.

I mean, I don't know. The premise of trying to night-killing 1 scum by risking more than 1 town dead seems stupid.

[Realeo]

Someone answer me. So say that we decide the 6X and 6Y. How are we going to who shoots who?

And why the hell Vedith and shot still voting me? If you have reasons for your vote to stay there, speak up.

[Realeo]

I repeat, how do you decide which of 6 X kills which of 6 Y.

That is the only loophole that I am seeing.

[Realeo]

This streak of posts is one of the worst trainwrecks ive seen lol
Im literally laughing loud

I assume now you understand other player's meltdown when seeing you keep misunderstanding how Town Citizen works.

[Realeo]

It doesnt matter who shoots who.

It does matter. If I am mafia goon, can secure a shot on my strongman, my strongman survives.

[Realeo]

By we noticed the occasion

a) We don't even know if it's a stranded strong man or paired goon-strong man

b) Ideal play for scum is to kill a pair of X-Y to dismiss association. By we noticed the occasion, we already loses 4 town.

[Realeo]

That is the point of choosing 6 people.
If we choose well, the shooters will not have scum. If we fail, and coincidentally that scum shooter is supposed to shoot his buddy, then yes, a kill goes through. Hence setup is not broken. But then we have rhem paired up.

That is like the most ignorant comment of the year.

If we succeed, 1 scum dies. If we fail, at least 4 townies die.

I like this plan! Minimize profit and maximize risk!

But then we have rhem paired up.

DANGEROUS FALLACY ALERT

If X flips scum, Y is not guaranteed to be scum since 1 scum is not paired up

and as I mentioned in previous post, which obviously mean you didn't read

we doesn't necesarily have them paired up due to possibility of stranded strong man. Oops! VT was stranded after all. Another pair of townie is killed. 7 townies dead. 3 mafia v 4 towns.

[Realeo]

Any publicly stated plan is easily co-optable by scum since they know the expected outcome and can deviate to their benefit. And no plan that can hold them accountable for deviating is likely to result Town immediately losing overnight.

So can we stop setup speccing now? As I said, we post death-list and barricade and kill as we see fit, using death list to guide who is going to be killed.

If I posted {Kuroi,MOI,shos} and I want to kill, but I see that nobody else posted Kuroi, then I know not to shoot Kuroi unless I have reason to believe Kuroi is the SM.

Maximize profit and maximize risk. If we're going to move big, may as well go for the big victory of eradicating all scum at N1.

[Realeo]

If scum-SM is paired, SM can kill a barricading town and the scum can kill another shooter--who is not barricading.

Naturally,we will reverse the order. scum-SM will kill another 2 guys.

[Realeo]

3 conftowns????

[Realeo]

Other people are extermely welcomed to chime in, btw.

[Realeo]

N1:

A pair dies.

N2 : We reverse the order right? If X -> Y and Y doesn't die, chance is SM is at X right?

A pair dies. 4 death already.

N3: Riot. Two chances

[a] two scums are aligned?

not aligned but SM is stranded.

[Realeo]

Two scum deaths?

MOI? Almost50? You guys have the best math skill here. I can't stand this.

[Realeo]

DANGEROUS FALLACY ALERT.
If X flips scum, Y is not guaranteed to be scum since 1 scum is not paired up

[Realeo]

What the hell are you talking about?
SM kills one, ok, another scum kills one, ok, another. That is 3. Where is another?

Do you only consider N1? Have you never considered N2?

[Realeo]

ARE YOU THAT SINGLE MINDED?????

So your plan is

a) Do this plan
b) If it fails, panic?

I mean, WTF is that??

[Realeo]

I am sorry, Shos. I maybe too harsh.

The moment that you mentioned "graduate student", I was expecting that you will present a motion that has considered its risk v befenit calculus. It doesn't matter if the calculus is wrong, we can argued it later.

You don't even consider risk v benefit calculus.

This is a real let down.

I am sorry. I have enough. We will talk tommorow. 11 pm in my country. I need sleep.

[Realeo]

I'm not moving off kraska until I find someone better. And right now considering its all talk about best play and no scum hunting/ basically anything else, there is no one better. the apology and retraction can easily come from scum realizing they picked the wrong person to try to lynch. All it really tells me is she was pick and choosing things to force a lynch. Evidence being a naked vote on me, followed by more and more things she found scummy. Evidence being she supposedly missed my immediate unvote,

and also missed shadow addressing said unvote (separated so not missed) citing it for a town read. After talk all about me and shadow not caring about my push on shadow, she misses that TWICE? she either saw it, or she missed it because she's just looking for something to call scum. Either way I don't think that's town whatsoever, considering she seemed to be ONLY paying attention to us two for pages.

As far as the plan goes, pv's plan, I don't think scum will limit the lynch pool for an extra kill or two. The backups will follow the plan. The strongman will kill who they want, and 50/50 they die.

The problem is the people already saying they won't follow the plan, which I think is good intentioned. I don't think their intention is actually to go against the plan. I believe its to try to avoid the plan all together. Because they're right, scum still exploit as best as possible. Along with the chance scum get lucky and get the right lineup.

As an option, We agree to put the people against it in the barricade section. And force them to barricade. Or die.

Another option is shoot who you think is scum, barricade if you're not confident.

Another option, everyone barricades, knowing people will inevitably go against that plan, but scum don't know who. I think we get a kill pool of 3 the 3 scummiest players, including the stranded... People target them. If they decide to shoot someone else, they're basically leaving themselves open for kill without basically any chance of killing. This obviously leaves room for deviation, if people want to take the chance, without giving a ton of information to scum

Since when do you open clinic?

[Realeo]

kraska's plan potentailly a better plan, tbh. I may follow that as last stand instead of shos', but expect resistance from me.

NEW TOPIC!

What does people think about Nosferatu? I am trying to solve him/her.

[Realeo]

Since when do you open clinic? What's that mean?

Open clinic = preaching like a shrink

You are the type of guy who stabs people and lynch them. You are a barbarian, not the Pope. This is new for me.

[Realeo]

VOTE: shos

this game is sterile because of the 'brainstorning'

The only thing that bothers me about Shos is, why he attacks me and pisskop for refusing for cooperation, but

townread MOI when MOI also refused for cooperation?

Why the double standard

PV make his plan rise and drops naturally and acknowledge if it fails and move on to another idea. Shos literally insist on a plan that have been proven by PV's dice roll to be wrong. The dice role put the SM and goon on the same pairing. My hyphothesis is not some outlier.

Both Shos and PV setup spec like hell, but their approach is radically different. I like PV's, thus why I townread him.

[Realeo]

this plan will fail because it has a high attrition rate. this plan will allow scum to kill more than not.

not only will people not follow a plan that will let scum win by attrition,

but scum themselves get up to 2 kills a night following it

its bad. we arent following it

This is why I proposed my system of making kill list.

If we're going to give scum a chance to kill multiple townies, then it's only correct to give us a chance to kill multiple scum as well--not just a single strongman.

Which is why you people, who decided to waste your time on setup speccing, start scumhunting.

[Realeo]

The only thing that bothers me about Shos is, why he attacks me and pisskop for refusing for cooperation,

but townread MOI when MOI also refused for cooperation?

Why the double standard

You haven't answer my question, shos.

[Realeo]

And pisskop - once again - our plan, even if rabdom - without D1 scumhunting - only allows scum 1.5 kills. If we do scumhunt, scum will have AT BEST 1 kill.

Why you never consider the worst case scenario?

If you have bad reading comprehension (ie.missing MOI's read}, why you assume it's possible for best case scenario?

And how do you reach 1.5 kills? (50% x 1 + 50% x 2) / 100%?

[Realeo]

WHY YOU ASSUME WE LOSE 3 TOWNIES?

My strategy is kill n1 : 2 kills. n2 : 2 kills. At worst case scenario, mafia will keep anonymity instead of being greedy because town is utterly lost. Keep the status quo. Make no one clear.

AND "WE GET LUCKY"???

DO YOU PLAGIARIZE YOUR THESIS?

[Realeo]

I am raising the temperature of this game because I am completely lost.

Are you scum who realized you are flailing, so you go for classic trolling mafia scheme or just lost town?

[Realeo]

Woah, this is amazing.

I mean, at this point, 6 people {almost,MOI,realeo,perivskop,PV(implicitly), and Vedith (implicitly)) oppose your strategy.

It's amazing how you don't realize your stand among your peer. You can't take a clue that you're going the wrong way.

[Realeo]

@Vedith: You asked PV about the status of the plan. That is hesitation. If you're sure of the system, you will take your time of campaigning like shos did instead of being worried.

BTW, I think I find a middle ground.

Excecute shos' 6 suspects and execute my kill list plan. We will review after all cards are laid out on the table and find which one is better.

[Realeo]

@Vedith: And stop lurking. Do you only talk during setup spec?

I was under the impression that I was being shot tonight if the plan went ahead.

If you're not a strongman, you don't have to worry. The focus of shos' plan is to target the strong man. DO NOT MIX UP MY PLAN WITH SHOS'. (Indeed, under my plan, you may be dead despite barricading) BE VIGILANT.

[Realeo]

I was actually calling you out for lying about me.

Eh?

However, I find it ironic that you are only talking about the setup but don't want others to?

I talked about lane. I talked about you. I tried to talk about nosferatu. I said that I tr PV. That's not talking about scumhunting?

And about setup. Nobody is rebutting shos. Unless you want to rebutt shos, I am taking parrarel job of both scumhunting and setup speccing, with the hope that if I rebutt shos, we drop this talk about setup spec.

[Realeo]

I failed to catch your logic.

[Realeo]

BTW, I think I find a middle ground.

Excecute shos' 6 suspects and execute my kill list plan. We will review after all cards are laid out on the table and find which one is better.

This offer is still in play

[Realeo]

Instead of ranting, we can agree to find middle ground.

[Realeo]

Im glad vedith gets it right
Going to stop answering this thing, lol
I am wasting my time here.

We need to start the actual scumhunting part of the day

, for that we need the lurkers to not lurk.

Should we start rvs?

We can leave realeo and pisskop aside lol

Pedit: what the fuck do you want,Jesus.

This is like a self-declaration of "I am the scum who never scumhunt." I mean really? You're saying that "I am town who never finds scum-hunting is not important during the first 20 pages?" Finally, you scum flail.

VOTE: shos

[Realeo]

I mean, he literally used the word

actual

, which implies that he never considered the first 20 pages of scumhunting. PerV said that he scum hunting by setup speccing, that's somewhat acceptable.

Can you explain this? I don't understand what you are getting at.
Who else is scum for you then?

I hinted at long time ago, I think both {lane,shos} is either both town or both scum. So {lane,shos,???}. With epod have not making any comment, it's dumb to annouce the 3rd scum now.

[Realeo]

awesome. 1 more please.

L-1?

[Realeo]

I hinted at long time ago, I think both {lane,shos} is either both town or both scum. So {lane,shos,???}. With epod have not making any comment, it's dumb to annouce the 3rd scum now.

It's pretty dumb to announce the second scum now, so why not the 3rd?

You think it's dumb to announce the second scum after

21

pages?

I tell you what is dumb. Lane forcing me to make a read out of RVS.

[Realeo]

I literally explained it like a long time ago?

I mean, kraska literally pointed out the same thing.

Why is trying to sort more than one slot scummy?

the thing is, i dont see you really sorting your scumread?
your push on shos is barely there
youre more focused on realeo
and your push on shaddow is disingeneous bc moi and kuroi also announced vlas

The fact that I'm not alone means I'm not making nonsense. Wrong? Probably. Nonsense? A second pair of eye confirms my observation.

[Realeo]

I tell you what is dumb. Lane forcing me to make a read out of RVS.

Isn't that the point of RVS? If nobody ever made reads out of RVS, RVS would never end.

Read the context of the exchange. I was meta-checking how pisskop react on RVS. lane asked my why I don't make a read out of RVS.

How do I make a meta read out of

past

RVS? I have meta read people for past game and lynch them sucessfuly with correct meta read, but I meta it as a context as a whole, not strictly RVS.

The context of the exchange was I was meta checking only RVS. How do I make a read out of

past

RVS.

[Realeo]

In post 503, Realeo wrote:
The fact that I'm not alone means I'm not making nonsense. Wrong? Probably. Nonsense? A second pair of eye confirms my observation.


So if one other person has the same opinion as you, it can't be wrong?
Am I really reading this right?

I am saying that if other person has the same opinion, it means I passed the sanity check. It's a valid argument.

[Realeo]

Unless you are going to rebutt it, be my guest.

[Realeo]

I'm not saying pointing a meta to get a read is scummy.

I'm saying collaborately sorting your non-scumread (and I quote "I just played with Realeo. Hard to understand and definitely seems try hard as town. I mostly ignored him that game.") with the help of the person that you were voting is a weird dynamic.

Sorting your non-scumread with another person, been there, done there.

Sorting your non-scumread with your scumread, raises eyebrow.

pedit: considering the context, that is potentially legit explanation. I will consider dropping you of the list after I sleep. 10.30 pm in my country.

[Realeo]

Now, can someone (Realeo) go back and see what players mentioned that the plan would fail if scum were next to each other in the list?

I was told the biggest train wreck. I'm not fighting a binary (shos v realeo) anymore. I am going for the middle ground.

[Realeo]

fuck

Fuck indeed.

So, if we're going "shoot who de want", do we keep our death target to ourself, or we out our kill list it like I proposed so we can gauge our kill rate?

I haven't exactly calculate the effectiveness of kill list that I proposed.

[Realeo]

lane0168 is shot by

PV

Almost50

by

MoI

Epod~lady is shot by shaddowez
KuroiXHF by shos

Realeo

by vedith
Nosferatu by kraska

pisskop

stranded

You haven't explain your townread on MOI despite he refused? PV is refusing as well.

[Realeo]

Votecount 1.6

shos (5) - nosferatu, pisskop, magna, realeo, almost (L-2)
realeo (1) - vedith
pisskop (2) -

perev

,

shos
kraska (1) - lane

Not voting (4) - Not Chara, kuroi, kraska, shaddow

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to strand.

(expired on 2016-09-10 06:30:00) remain until day end

That purple vote survived 14 pages.

Do you see what I don't see, perev, so your vote stays there?

[Realeo]

I will defend pereV in this case. I think he did a good job. True, he actively make setup spec, but he also actively destroying setup spec (ie. the dice roll), so I put him at "town with good intention".

[Realeo]

In post 563, Realeo wrote:
I will defend pereV in this case. I think he did a good job. True, he actively make setup spec, but he also actively destroying setup spec (ie. the dice roll), so I put him at "town with good intention".


Again why?

It's something scum can quite easily do. You may disagree about whether plan establishment is good or bad (it's clearly bad) but it isn't out of character at all for scum to present a plan as a means of presenting as Town.

What do you think of his lack of scum-hunting?

And before you respond - making plans is not scum-hunting.

My equation has nothing to do with pereV is making plan = scum-hunting. I said pereV approach of "scum-hunting while making plan" is quite acceptable, not exactly acceptable.

But when you phrased it that way, though... I have to reconsider my number.

To be honest, when I was reading (not re-reading. Fresh reading) the only thing that caught my eye is he start setup-speccing without reading it.

Still haven't read,

but what about

Odd numbered players shoot the person above them.
Even numbered players barricade.

If the strongman is even, he dies.
If the strongman is odd, he kills and cuts the lynch pool in half.

I think this could lead to an extra mafia kill at night, but at the risk of getting them killed (if they are even and shoot anyway), but would narrow the lynch pool.

Anyways, something like that, but better.

Thoughts?

That bothers me, but once I checked that he was even and seems more open-minded, I feel OK.

[Realeo]

Realeo is hilarious.

At your service.

[Realeo]

Like, even if we choose randomly, the plan has 50% to be beneficial to town by having the SM dead
I dont see how you guys arent seeing this

SM dies if :

[*]SM is part of '6 being shot'. I notate this as X.
[*]SM is not aligned with scum. I notate this as Y|X.

SM dies if both X and Y is true.

Shos argued that P (X ^ Y) = 50%

P (X ^ Y) = P (X) x P (Y|X)

Spoiler: Techincal comment

That's the actual formula for conjunction probability.

P (X) = 6 / 13
P (Y|X) = 5 / 6

P (X ^ Y) = 6 / 13 x 5 / 6 = 5 / 13 = 38.4%

[Realeo]

oh goodie, you've done math in high school!

want to calculate average of how many town deaths there are going to be if we all shoot as we wish?

I will run computer simulation for you.

[Realeo]

Computer simulation :

[*] 1.7 scum death
[*] 6.6 town deaths

Spoiler: Code for audit

Code: Select all

from random import randint

# This computer simulations assumes that everyone shoots (nobdoy barricades)

townDeath = 0
scumDeath = 0

for simulation in range(200000):
    shotReceived = [int(0) for i in range(13)]
    #player id #0 - #2 is scum
    #player id #3 - #12 is town
    for i in range(3):
        kill = randint(3,12) #Simulating scum kill. Obviously, scum wont kill his own member
        shotReceived[kill] += 1 #Agh, you got a bullet
    for i in range(3,13): 
        while True:
            kill = randint(0,12) #Simulating town kill
            if kill != i: #To prevent town killing themself!
                shotReceived[kill] += 1
                break
    for i in range(3): #Calculating how many scum dies
        if shotReceived[i] > 0:
            scumDeath += 1
    for i in range(3,13): #And hwo many town dies
        if shotReceived[i] > 0:
            townDeath += 1
print "Expected Value"
print "Town death %f" % (townDeath/200000.0)
print "Scum death %f" % (scumDeath/200000.0)

[Realeo]

We know EV for shos' plan is 0.38 scum death, but town?

Spoiler: Code for audit

Code: Select all

from random import shuffle

# This computer simulations assumes that scum is greedy

# WARNING : THIS IS GENERALIZATION. YOU CANT SIMULATE WIFOM WITH COMPUTER
townDeath = 0


for simulation in range(200000):
    player = ['T','T','T','T','T','T','T','T','T','T','SM','MG','MG']
    shuffle(player)
    
    # SM can always kill despite being shot or stranded
    # player[0] ~ player[5]  : Being shot
    # player[6] ~ player[11] : Shooting
    # player[12] : Stranded
    
    #SM can always kill no matter the position, so
    townDeath += 1
    
    #If Magia Goon is shooting, he can shoot anyone
    
    for i in range(6,12):
        if player[i] == "MG":
            townDeath += 1
    
    #If Mafia Goon is covered by SM, he can shoot as well
    
    c = player.index('SM')
    if c < 12:
        if player[c-6] == "MG":
            townDeath += 1

print "Town death %f" % (townDeath/200000.0)

2.07 town death

Random killing town/scum ratio o-> 6.6/1.7 = 3.38 town death/ scum death
Shos's plan town/scum ratio o-> 2.07/0.38 = 5.44 town death/scum death

Shos plan is more harmful than random killing.

[Realeo]

And that is without considering that scum won't all shoot the same person,obv.

I made scum can't kill each other, but not shoot the same person. Will fix that.

[Realeo]

[*] 1.7 scum death
[*] 8.4 town deaths

Spoiler: Code for audit

Code: Select all

from random import randint
from random import sample

# This computer simulations assumes that everyone shoots (nobdoy barricades)

townDeath = 0
scumDeath = 0

for simulation in range(200000):
    shotReceived = [int(0) for i in range(13)]
    for i in range(3):
        kill = sample([int(i) for i in range(3,13)],3) #Simulating scum kill. Obviously, scum wont kill his own member
        for z in kill:
            shotReceived[z] += 1 #Agh, you got a bullet
    for i in range(3,13): 
        while True:
            kill = randint(0,12) #Simulating town kill
            if kill != i: #To prevent town killing themself!
                shotReceived[kill] += 1
                break
    for i in range(3): #Calculating how many scum dies
        if shotReceived[i] > 0:
            scumDeath += 1
    for i in range(3,13): #And hwo many town dies
        if shotReceived[i] > 0:
            townDeath += 1
print "Expected Value"
print "Town death %f" % (townDeath/200000.0)
print "Scum death %f" % (scumDeath/200000.0)

8.4/1.7 = 4.9.

Shos' plan still more harmful.

[Realeo]

I'm sorry shos. I'm going to interject that.

2. Scum death value is not only 0.38 - that is the SM's death value. the others can die as well if they don't cooperate with town and are in the being-shot people.

The plan assumes everyone follows the plan. I'm mean, you say, go simulate my plan. Your plan is assuming that everyone follows the plan right? Second, your plan despite flawed, has quite a strong equilibrium if scum is part of the being-shot, the scum has no other option but to follow the equilibrium. The exception is if scum's shooter is the SM, then the scum can break free the equilibrium.

to top that, add the fact that if town are able to scumhunt decently to actually shoot scum in the random plan, I am convinced that town can narrow scum in their pick of 6/7 being-shot+stranded.

I can do something if accuracy = x%. However, from my experience learning poker, trying to guess the x% is a bull shit approach. How do you quantify such thing? And even if we meet the point of x% where your plan overpowered the random killing plan, how do we can use that x% to decide what to do? Ok, so when x = 68%, shos plan is better. How do we define that 68% accuracy is good enough? Do town have a 68% accuracy? How do you assure that?

[Realeo]

1. I have to give you the credit for investing the time. That kinda lowers you on my scumlist, which means I'll probably shoot piss.

To be honest, I don't need town credit.

>> You hard claimed scum

>> You AtE hard

>> You push dangerous strategy aggressively.

You literally a Donald Trump. I am not saying Hillary Clinton is good as well, but the tactic that you employ is exactly what Donald Trump used. It may fool emotional voter, but not intelligent voter.

The only reason I rebutt that is to get pereV and kraska to disband the plan. I should have rebutt you with computer simulation long time ago.

[Realeo]

To be honest, I am tempted to make you apologize for calling me "the biggest train wreck" to complete the final part of Donald Trump scheme ("I regret not always choosing the right word.") but meh.

[Realeo]

I love ot when people use "you vlaimed scum" as reason for scumreading me

I love you too <3, but unless you are going to say "not scumhunting is town", I'm pretty much locked. Your attitude and the scum claim are not helping me to get me out of you.

That bring PeregineV. MOI turned out to be correct about PeregineV, he haven't made a really scumhunting post, but he said he scumhunt while setup spec, so I will give him the benefit of doubt. In return, I hope I get scumlist minimum. If it makes sense, despite wrong, I will pass him..

[Realeo]

your math here is useless, as players will never be shooting randomly, regardless of the method. they will pick their scumreads. scum will pick townier players

Oh no! Don't worry. We're not actually assuming people shoot THAT randomly, eventhough the calculation assumes that.

In the world of mathematics, there is something called Expected Value. That is, how likely would town wound up, in average, best scenario and worst scenario included.

The assumption is, if we averaged best case + mediocre + worst case, the best case and worst case will cancel each other.

The number that I posted (EV) is the number that town most likely to encounter if we're mediocre (not that good and not that bad) regardless of the exact dynamic (in math, specifically probability, we don't really exactly care of what creates it, but what happens next. If (plain scum + plain town) dynamic and (genius scum + genius town) creates the same result, then same result it is)

Is it exactly mediocre? Well, it's not exactly in the middle (median), but (on paper, since the data is not that huge outlier) the mean (average) is kinda in the middle.

[Realeo]

The purpose of the computer simulation is not to create a new plan, but to rebuttal shos' plan.

If shos' plan can be beaten by a naive plan, then surely it can be beaten by a more sophisticated plan right?

I'm only rebutalling shos' plan. I'm not exactly making a counter plan.

[Realeo]

I am confused at how people got mad at the statistics when it actually ended the debate??

[Realeo]

who else here thinks Vedith is scum?

He is actually due for a prod.

[Realeo]

No. Activity is NAI, I stated it cleary back in the game. Iso me and you will saw me that I stated that activity is NAI.

I said the prod thingy so I can get content. Usually this game gets busy when I sleep (due to time zone difference), so I hope the prod request will give me more content while I'm asleep.

That means, I don't know about Vedith. He was setup speccing and suddenly attack me. He said he called me out for lying, but just went gone without explaining it.

[Realeo]

I can't believe my mathematical analysis doesn't halt the debate. And we're due for a prod.

[Realeo]

Both shos and I are town, and if I'm wrong about nos/nc and scum shoot 2 other town, game goes to shit. I'm going to try one last time to convince you that this is dumb and we should be following the game breaking plan that most of you have not bothered to fully read...I'm on sleeping pills rn...I'll do this tomorrow

I will try to convert you.

Which part of my mathematical analysis does not convince you?

[Realeo]

still unknown rest-of-scum deaths

Zero! Scum can't deviate if being shot!

[Realeo]

I can understand Kraska scumread Nos. It's weak, but valid argument.

I kinda can understand Kraska strongly townread shos.

However, kraska scumreading NC is a new wonder for me.

If kraska can properly explain his scumread on NC, I will put Kraska on my town lean. If not, I may have to visit someone.

[Realeo]

vc

You mean wc?

[Realeo]

Did you miss the part where if we don't do that we get 8.5 town deaths on average?

Did you miss the part where if we don't do that we get 1.7 scum deaths on average?

[Realeo]

Mafia goon dead is zero. They have no reason to deviate.

Show me a scenario where they must deviate.

Don't just say "to force them out of their hand"

And about the random killing.

Guys, I can't believe I have to point the obvious.

The scum death average of random killing is 1.7, right?

Time for a math class:

Average is sum divided by number of data, right?

So if the computer simulation result is :

{1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2}

the average is 1.5 right?

But it's 1.7? So it should be something like this.

{1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2}

That average is 1.8. Close enough to our 1.7

I'm at my uncle house so don't have access to my compiler. Online compiler only run 10 seconds maximum (ie.ideone.com) while that simulation lasts like 1 minute, so that's an educated guess.

We try to further the guess.

Chance of 0 scum death: (3/4)^12 = 3%
Chance of 3 scum death: 10C3 / 13C3 = < 1% # I am not exactly confindent with this formula. If anyone can find a better one. This is good enough, but maybe not that precise.

We can safely state that 0 and 3 is an outlier, so we can safely ignore it. Thus a prediction of {1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2} is actually a good guess of how actually the computer simulation results.

If you see, the median is {2,2}. That means, a mediocare town will kill 2 scums.

That's all we need. All we need is to kill 2 scums.

Why?

Because the setup is breakable with 1 scum remaining

kraska

, you a love a game breaking method right? Take this as an exercise to show me why the setup is breakable with 1 scum. If you can't, I have to assume you scum flailing (how the hell you can call a strategy is setup breaking if you can't do the math?)

[Realeo]

Only kraska may explain why. Keep your mouth shut. He keep saying "game breaking strategy". He is scum flailing if he can't explain why the setup is breakable with 1 scum remaining

Since the game is auto for town for a mediocre team, that means, the win rate for this random killing strategy is > 50%.

The only thing we need to do is have 2 town members survives. That is achievable.

[Realeo]

*She. My dearest apology.

Thank you <3

[Realeo]

does this game have five players?

This game has low activity during week end. I am getting used to it.

[Realeo]

Realeo. For fucks sake.
If scum barricade, they lose a shot.

That means that if both goons barricade, best case scenario for scum is 1 kill.
What do you not understand?

Are you talking shos' plan or random killing.

[Realeo]

About my plan. If scum barricade then clearly there arent going to be 2.7 town deaths, right?

Why would scum barricade if they are not being shot?

[Realeo]

ok this is actually what I wanted before. Now how did you get a 8.4 death average on everyone shooting randomly?

The number inflates because scum kills different target each. If scum is not guaranteed to kill different target each, the number plummets to 6 point something.

[Realeo]

Is peregineV still alive? I really want to sort him before the shooting starts.

[Realeo]

Assuming no plan, scum do not know if they are being shot.

Isn't this the definition of random killing?

[Realeo]

I mean, random killing is no public plan right? That's what is the second computer simulation for.

[Realeo]

Let us start by making definition:

shos's plan : 6 scummies being shot by 6 townies.

rk plan : Everyone kills anyone that they want. Scum maximizes their number by shooting 3 different subject

Am I correct?

[Realeo]

The imprpvement in both cases should be about equal in my opinion

I don't concur.

In random killing, if town shoots you, then it's over. You can't wifom it. You can wifom mafia kill but not town kill.

In shos' plan, town still has to answer this

If SM is death and 1 town kill, does this mean : (a)Both scum are being shot or (b)Wifom?

In random killing, a perfect scumhunting seals the deal. In your plan, mafia can still destroy a perfect scumhunting.

[Realeo]

In both plan, we have to hunt the SM and both the goons(to force them not to kill town in shos' plan), right?

If both of them requires the same method, why take the hard way when you can take the easy way?

[Realeo]

To shos's plan to be actually work and reach best case scenario, we need to get 3of3. In random killing, we only need to get 2of3.

[Realeo]

If we sucks at scumhunting, then we are going to lose anyway. Just slow death or quick death.

We only need to get the SM; it is preferable to also get thr goons of course, but if we dont it is still good because next night we can choose better out of the shooters.

For scumhunters who read this, this is a scum flailing. We only need to get 2of3 for town win. shos is making it hard to get 2of3.

[Realeo]

Huh? Is this game white flag?

You like game breaking strategy, right? Isn't it obvious what is the game breaking strategy when there is only 1 scum left?

[Realeo]

Spoiler: If nobody managed to find the game breaking strategy

Just make a circle of killing.

Let A, B, C, and D survives alone--with 1 scum left.

Just make A kills B, B kills C, C kills D, D kills A. 100% SM dead. Unless I am missing something, please point something out.

[Realeo]

If you find something wrong, point it out instead of saying people to stahp.

[Realeo]

If all players are dead at the end of the night, the mafia wins.

!

Aigo. They are not making this easy.

VOTE: PeregineV

If PeregineV makes a good readlist, this vote will flip back to shos.

[Realeo]

For the record, I still think the random killing is better. The rebuttal of "2of3" only rebutt "good because 2of3" and "shos scum for denying 2of3". death ratio, I still like it better.

I unvoted shos due to #781. That's what I expected from town.

[Realeo]

Realeo, are you able to run that sim for me? Cab you find the time?

Everybody has x% chance of barricading and 100-x% chance of shooting, right?

The naive approach put 100% chance of shooting.

How do I simulate x? The result will vary as x goes. That's why I said that guessing the x is a bull crap attempt.

[Realeo]

im okay with a perv vote. agree that perv needs to make content, not some piddly readslist

I actually prefer a piddly readlist. His setup spec is enough content. His setup speccing shows how his thinking process. If his piddly readlist doesn't match his thinking process, that's a red flag.

[Realeo]

I always take the principle that only town can stay consistent with their thinking process. Scum have to bend their thinking process here and then.

I mean, I personally think that kraska's scum read is a crap. But the reasoning was consistent with her thinking process--thus I never mentioned her--except on the 2of3 rule--because I want to test her thinking process.

[Realeo]

I, however, can definitely use some content from Kuroi XHF.

[Realeo]

If scum are in the being-shot, they can choose to shoot or barricade

They have x% chance of choosing to shoot and 100-x% chance of barricading.

[Realeo]

Define "4 options". I think I know what you meant but not necesarily sure.

[Realeo]

Yeah. But how much is the %x of shooting and %x of barricading. This is not a scenario where %x = 50% is exactly correct.

And don't ask me to compute every single possible x from 0 - 100. This may sounds weird, but computer simulations like that may take up to 2 hours. #no joke

[Realeo]

I don't understand why x is needed
Run a loop over each mafioso

No! No! No!

I am making computer simulation not human simulation! I don't know what do you major at, but if you major at pyschology, you can't force rational thinking of human to computer. The substitute of it is probability. We're trying to find the best probability that resembles rational thinking the most.

There is some "equilibrium" that computer can follow (ie.3 scums will kill 3 different town), but that's it.

[Realeo]

Am I the only one who can't read MoI?

[Realeo]

Realeo, I majored in math and physics a few years ago, today I just stick with physics.

Again, logically. Do not try to help scum find the best solution. Just run all options.
I can try to do this myself in python in about 3 days [how long till DL?] if you really can't understand

I am scumreading moi but this is mainly on meta. His town play is beautiful; here it is really bullshit.

Give me a pseudocode than.

[Realeo]

So, something like

Code: Select all

if mafia is being shot:
   split simulation into 2

Like shrondinger cat right? The goon is both barricading and killis.

I mean, I understand run all 4 options, but that gives a wrong conclusion. You're like forcing scum not to play optimally.

Like "Look people! Scum death is high!" but on 75% of the cases, scum play it wrong. That's where I'm confused.

[Realeo]

Again, logically. Do not try to help scum find the best solution. Just run all options.

Scum receives no help since my simulation is naive. They have to solve the "chaos theory" using their own head.

[Realeo]

I know this is just a personality difference, but I can never understand Realeo's ability to scientifically and mathematically calculate every aspect of a Mafia game.

When you enrolled in a debating class, you will learn the concept of risk v reward calculus. Debate is usually decided by the risk v reward calculus (which shos failed to realize) and not argument count (which almost50 failed to realize). I mean, there's a reason why Bush managed to convince people to deploy army to Iraq, but Trump failed to convince people to build the wall. Both premises are equally crazy, but the approach are different.

Debating class + probability + stats + programming = Realeo.

[Realeo]

@Not_Chara: Nex time, say pedit instead of edit. You are scaring people

However, MOI made a good point though. Shos' logic feels flipped-flop.

I will wait for PereV before fliiping.

And 11 pm. Good night.

[Realeo]

I think the exact word for shos' is not outright lie. The exact word for shos is cherry (or cheery?) picking.

[Realeo]

What do you want to know?

A bare minimum of scumlist with why.

[Realeo]

No it is not garbage, it is a nonnegligible chance which has to be considered when you make the computation.

Answer my question, why will scum shoot when being shot at. When scum is being shot at, they will 100% barricade.

[Realeo]

K good, cause I didn't understand how seconds ago he was yelling in colors about shos scum flailing, then voting, then voting someone else for pressure?

Because I'm not type of guy like RadiantCowbells who have a big ego that can't reconsider things when proven wrong.

If the site culture is "I am still right despite proven wrong," then please exclude me out of the house.

[Realeo]

Shos' post (exactly how Realeo expected town to post)
Realeo claims shos is scum flailing, very adamantly, bolded in different colors so as not to be missed and everything!
Realeo unvotes citing 781 as the reason, while 786 is scum flailing? I'm having trouble figuring out how Realeo missed something that he already had expectations of coming from town, insisted shos is scum flailing, and then later says a previous post... You get the point...

The Vedith rebuttal was a stopper from me.

And remember

Premise 1 : Shos is scum for denying 2of3 (#786)
Premise 2: 2of3 is proven to be wrong (#799?)

Are you expecting me to still scumread shos despite proven wrong about 2of3? The moment 2 of3 is rebutted, the scale tips back to "town????" due to 781.

[Realeo]

i don't think you're being crazy. i'm wondering how i missed that, actually.
it's a good catch.

I like your analysis, but you need to read the context. You missed MOI's context and missed my context. That's 2 cases already. At least be vigilant as we are approaching deadline.

[Realeo]

So he's scum for one thing! Like scum flailing! For one thing. But that was wrong, and something Different makes him town? Was the 2of3 thing the only thing you scum read him for? And the first time you thought he was scum?

So you're back to no scum reads then? Just a vote on perev that can be wiped away with a reads list

Did I say back to no scum reads?

The rebuttal of 2of3 only rebuttals my fos due to 2of3.

I still have the AtE, pushing aggressive dangerous strategy (mind you that this come from a person who major in math. I will give "leeway" if he comes from someone outside math)

But when MoI throws in PeregineV, PeregineV has been under my radar. Then enter #781 and #786 in quick succesion. Then #786 is rebuttaled. I need to give credit for shos for #781. That #781 makes him goes under the topscum list. Enter PeregineV. I gave a chance for shos to excuse himself from my vote, so I give the same chance for PeregineV.

[Realeo]

What do you want to know?

A bare minimum of scumlist with why.

Also bump.

[Realeo]

MagnaofIllusion - Neagtive attitude towards any night plans

By this definition, shouldn't I be also part of your fos?

[Realeo]

Vedith has requested replacement

Goddamit. I intentionally stop talking to see Vedith in action.

[Realeo]

Let us keep the mason claim to yourself for the time being. Let's try to strand the scum without outing the mason.

[Realeo]

I am pleased with some of the death and dissatisfied with some of the death.

However,

Votecount 2.1

Not voting (7) - lane0168,

PeregrineV

, Inifinity, shaddowez, MagnaofIllusion, Realeo, pisskop

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to strand.

(expired on 2016-09-26 18:30:00) remain until day end

That is a black horse.

Idk. My towny {almost50,kuroi,not_chara} is ded and PeregineV flusters me. Let's work together if you're town and I'm wrong this whole time.

[Realeo]

BTW. I'm running for ACM ICPC (competitive programming), so expect longer time to run computer simulation.

[Realeo]

I barricaded due to lane's threat kill.

My kill pool is shos, Realeo, kraska

[Realeo]

I like how perev doesn't really do anything and

now Realeo wants to work with him

like he's town after that was his vote at the end of yesterday

Ofcourse I want to work with him, it's lylo!

Look, the fact that my towny {Not_Chara,Kuroi,Almost50} are dead while Perev is still alive implies that

(1) either all three of them are shot by scum (how likely is this??)

(2) People actually scumreading them.

I mean, the fact that I am very off the popular opinion is a scary wake up call. Am I missing something? Am I being the idiot? Lane, we both played at Ari's Donner Party. At that game, I'm the only one who think that Jae_Reed can't be vig and Dunn must be scum. My scumhunting was briliant, but the underlying asumption is a disaster and I am the only one with the opinion. Wisdom of the crowd is not necesarrily correct, but it's a good starting point.

At D1, I worked with shos. Why not with pereV at D2? I am openist.

[Realeo]

@realeo, what has perev done that you're reconsidering your scum read when you've been right with your town reads?

Did I say I reconsider my scum read? I said that I'm

open

to reconsider my scum read, but it's not 100% flip from scum->town. If pereV failed to convince me--like he did at D1--then it stays at him.

[Realeo]

Remember he was scum flailing, then he responded like town and the flailing was a misunderstanding and you unvoted him cause he responded like town. Surprised you forgot that

I didn't exactly put him at town. I put him at scum, but not at the biggest scum if you recalled correctly. PeregineV was the biggest scum, hence why I was flustered.

[Realeo]

Personally if Peregrine and Shaddow aren’t the Masons I think they certainly stand the best chance of being scum. And if that’s the case I don’t see Infinity as their partner. Realeo fits that bill best, with an outside chance of Lane of Pisskop.

Excuse for my dumbness, but why are you mason hunting? I mean, we will out mason later.

[Realeo]

I don't know about you but I have been towntunneled and scumtunneled in the past.

However, I noticed that I have been

both

towntunneled and scumtunnneled from infinity/Vedith slot.

I don't know what to make from it.

My impression is that scum!Vedith try to devaluate my opinion when I was tunneling shos, but I flipped to peregineV so I suspected that Vedith maybe strategically replacing??? But if Vedith slot is scum, it doesn't really explain the scum motivation of Infinity towntunneling me, especially after the fact that it's easy to bank on "we are at LYLO. Blame the computer simulation!!!!!"

[Realeo]

Am I the only one who is speculating that Moi is SM, Shadow is barricading goon? and that

Moi shoot Shadow

is just some crazy gambit?

I mean, I can't justify them by direct accusation, but I can justify them by POE.

[Realeo]

If I was scum, I would still be townreading you since you'd be an impossible lynch.

Don't focus on the read, focus on the reasoning.

Reading is an action. Action has motive. I can't find your motive, that's what my post have been about.

[Realeo]

PEdit: why do you say MoI strongman in particular

A goon!MOI can't risk claiming "I shot Shadow", especially when MOI is at the top of the town read.

[Realeo]

Here's my dillema.

If I put a ladder where I put my strong town at top of the ladder, town lean at middle-high, scum lean at middle-low, strong scum at low. I would expect, most of the bottom part will be dead + 1 strong town will die (the strongman kill) .

But N1 night kill distribution is literallly wiping down the entire middle and bottom part, leaving the top part,but with a twist! PeregineV who is pretty much low is alive.

Why Pereginev is alive? Lynch bait???

@Infinity: If he's strongman, he know he is not shot since strongman doesn't have barricade.

[Realeo]

How is MoI "top of the town read"? He has the same number of people scum reading him as Pere, lane, and I all do

Please remember that I was talking in the context of D1. moI was doing well D1. Beside the {kraska,shos,peregineV} block, I don't recall anyone scumreading him?

[Realeo]

In post 1145, Realeo wrote:
Excuse for my dumbness, but why are you mason hunting? I mean, we will out mason later.


How exactly am I mass hunting again? I’m calling them scum. The being Masons would explain the scummy play and their in-sync reads but I don’t think that’s the case.

Why do you suddenly take umbrage only after I suggest you make the best case partner for Pere and Shaddow scum?

You were scum hunting? Oh, my bad. Excuse my English. Misread the statement. When you said 'partner', I was thinking 'mason partner'

[Realeo]

Yep. Have you ever answered PVs question about your top 3 scumspects? I'm guessing that me and MoI are two of them from this post. Interested in your third.

I'm just saying my mind. If they're my "top 3 scumspects", I will push it more harder than just a speculation.

[Realeo]

Listing your scum reads shouldn’t be that difficult.

I'm having too many townreads, tbh.

[Realeo]

I'm having too many townreads, tbh.

I find this a problem. There are 7 players alive. You know (or should be pretending) that you are Town and thus you absolutely are assured 3 of the 6 others left have to be scum. Hell if you are a Mason (which I don't see as likely myself) that number drops to 3 of 5.

Hell even if you just PoE off your strongest Town reads among the 6 / 5 then your scum list is the 3 least Town read by you. Shouldn't be that difficult.

I do find it a problem.

As I said, I was expecting that the night kill survivor distribution is {some town, some null, little scum}. I didn't expect {a lot of town (imo), and peregineV}

If peregineV is town, then my reading is royally wrong. Which is why the moment the day starts, I claimed intention for an opportunity to change my mind.

[Realeo]

If you are asking, what is my D1 read minus the death, the scum are {Vedith, Shadow, peregineV}

If you are asking, what is my first impression D2 read, I don't even have one. That peregineV really made me anxious.

[Realeo]

You posted before me and said already that I made you anxious. How can I make you anxious if you posted before me day2?

Sir, did you pay attention?

I am anxious because you're alive.

Why am I anxious because you're alive? I won't repeat what I said.

[Realeo]

Why does someone being scum make it less likely for town to shoot them

No, No, No!

Please don't comment until I make an abridged version of my concern. I will try to make this simplified.

[Realeo]

Spoiler: Abridged version

I am expecting that the purged will be pretty much fair. Some townlean is dead, some null is dead, some scum is dead. I expect townlean is dead due to strongman.

But my townlean is alive. Some townlean is more townlean than others obviously (it's a lie to say Shadow is more townier than MOI, but is Shadow town lean for me? yes.) but they are my townlean bloc and they all survives.

My scumlean and my null is dead. Like 100%. Kraska? Nosferatu? my scum lean? Gone! Not_Chara? Almost50? my null? Gone!

Pereginev is the only exception. He's my scum lean.

If Pereginev flips town, what does this means?

If PeregineV is town, This means that I'm 100% wrong.

I townread the scum and scumread the town.

I ain't saying that PeregineV alive = autoTown. I am saying that PeregineV alive is a huge wake up alarm to really reconsider every thing.

PS:
The only person that is not exactly in my townlean bloc is Vedith. Vedith is really in the border of townlean and null. I noticed that Vedith scumtunnel me and I find it weird. (I mean, there are 3 scums, why only me that you attack?) But the moment Vedith attacks Not_Chara, I think "Ok, he's good." I speculated that he's scum strategic replacing but since it's an unsupported hunch so I drop it there. The only reason that it comes back to me is because infinity is towntunneling me.

The fact that I put Shadow on my D1 scums excluding the death means that among all townlean bloc, Shadow is the weakest.

[Realeo]

If peregineV is town, then my reading is royally wrong. Which is why the moment the day starts, I claimed intention for an opportunity to change my mind.

Then how about you provide two lists? One assuming PV is town, and one assuming PV is scum?

To be fair, I didn't do associative guilty yet, so.

From town to scum {pisskop,lane/MOI,Shadow,Vedith,PeregineV}

So if PeregineV is scum {Shadow,Vedith,PeregineV}

If peregineev is town {lane/MOI,Shadow,Vedith}

Shadow, if you're mason with PeregineV, be my saviour. That is, after pisskop out his read.

PS: TBH, I am having hard time to decide which of {pisskop,lane,MOI} is #1. I only settled on pisskop being #1.

[Realeo]

About Moi V lane

TBH, lane was my #2 until he posted this.

@mod v/LA til tuesday

I'm not going to bother with this game when all it is is talking about the plan, talking about why we like or don't like the plan. Statistics about the plan. Saying let's scum hunt, then talking about the plan. Starting to get the feeling scum is hiding behind the plan since very limited conversation about anything but the plan. A plan which quite obviously should've been off the table long ago when people said they weren't going with the plan. Enough with the plan. Fuck the plan. Shoot who you think is scum. Or don't shoot. The fucking plan man. I'm taking a stand against the plan man. Not wasting my long weekend in this plan, man.

FAKE. Which Not_Chara also noticed.

However, he remained critical.

MOI was being crtical as well. But tbh, I don't really recall MOI talked anything else but shos or perev. (I can be wrong, so rebuttal chance is open). Lane feels a little broad. He touched shos, kraska, me. He was being neutral on the setup spec. I am impressed at how the setup spec seems doesn't budge his read. I mean, let us be honest, most of our read are shaped due to the setup spec. Lane's at kraska seems unbiased from it. The setup spec is a great chance for scum to milk in (especially after the fact that those setup speccers are town) (Another rebuttal spot) Although he's stubborn, but I have made peace with that since Ari's donner party.

[Realeo]

3, I feel a little broad? You town read everyone, and when you do have scum reads, you do everything you can do town read them. You'll do anything not to have a solid scum read you have to commit to.

First of all, "a little broad" is actually a compliment.

Second, yes. That's how I roll. When I have scum reads, I do everything to town read them. It's called self sanity check.

Third, I don't town read everyone. I scumread a lot. The only problem is, every scum read but Perev is dead.

[Realeo]

2, you spent the most time talking about the setup and were most often heard saying, guys, let's stop talking about it. And then you kept talking about it. So yes, I did get a read from the setup spec talk if that's what you're insinuating

It will stop quicker if people actually help me to stop them. You can't just say "Guys stop!" and expect them to stop. They will gibber about it until D2! The computer simulation is quite an effective argument stopper. Shos and Kraska still debated about it, but you have to agree with me that it drags the game back to its course.

[Realeo]

all you said was that your townreads all died

My townreads all died?

My darling, go reread the abridged version. You're misreading. I said all my scumreads all died but Perev.

[Realeo]

Not all of it has to do with scumhunting, if that's what you're asking. There's

-Being transparent with your thought process and showing genuine reasoning
-How you interact with your townread as well as your
-Other miscellaneous ways you approach the game that don't have scum motivation.

I'm having problem what do you post this. Granted, I see no scum motivation, but neither does town motivation.

[Realeo]

*why

[Realeo]

Why are you opening a lecture class? Do I miss something? What's context?

[Realeo]

Oh ok. Now I get it. Ignore that question.

BTW, 11 pm in Indonesia! Good night! =D

[Realeo]

Also Lane's 1204 needs serious answers from Realeo.

Pay attention that I have used the word

towny

instead of

town

.

Adjective.

Idk. My towny {almost50,kuroi,not_chara} is ded and PeregineV flusters me. Let's work together if you're town and I'm wrong this whole time.

Are they towny? Positive. Are they town? Null. Why I nulled them despite I see them towny? Simple, if I try to townread my scumread as part of my self sanity-check, then I also try to scumread my townread as part of my sanity-check

And remember the context, I'm not exactly making declaration. I'm making comparison against peregineV. The dead towny against the alive scummy--why the scummy is alive?

[Realeo]

@Realeo

– Here’s my issue with your reads lists.

From town to scum {pisskop,lane/MOI,Shadow,Vedith,PeregineV}

So if PeregineV is scum {Shadow,Vedith,PeregineV}

If peregineev is town {lane/MOI,Shadow,Vedith}

First if Peregrine is scum you have a both Shaddow and Peregrine suspecting Infinity and Infinity also cross suspecting both of those. As I’ve said before while bussing in these sorts of reads lists isn’t impossible (Given they are just fluff with no voting or anything behind them) I don’t see scum working so hard to distance / bus each other given that they simply need a +1 Town net killed at Night to win.
It might be a gambit to make people less like to shoot within that threesome but that’s a pretty convoluted explanation at this point in time.

Secondly your teams don’t make tons of sense in light of this you floated earlier …

My darling, it should be implicitly obvious that the list I ginve is my D1 read minus the death. I already told you that I already said that I haven't do associative read and I haven't made D2 read. I already gave my list {Shadow,Vedith,Perev} but Shadow asked me to make two lists, so I just modify them.

Am I the only one who is speculating that Moi is SM, Shadow is barricading goon? and that Moi shoot Shadow is just some crazy gambit?

I mean, I can't justify them by direct accusation, but I can justify them by POE.

If you are Town and really thought “Hey, maybe my Town reads are borked” and honestly dropped this theory I would think your 3 Scum depth chart would reflect that more strongly than the “Maybe it can be MoI with Shaddow” that your scenario with Peregrine as Town presents it.

I think it should be obvious by this point that I like to throw random things for feedback. Remember my d1 clash of pisskop v Realeo? If I actually believe in that read, I would tunnel at you already like I did at shos.