Vote: Telo
Mafia 158: Titanium. Game over
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dividizzle Goon
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hey guys, sorry I'm a little bit late to the party. I hope everyone is doing well, I haven't played in quite a while and I forgot how intriguing this first round of suspicion is. My personal view on this first phase is that the most important part is to get everyone to come in, say hi and start talking. So here we go.
Vote: Telo-
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dividizzle Goon
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Unvote
Vote: Eleison
Sorry if this has already been mentioned as I read a little bit briefly while catching up but I am suspicious of Eleison's firm approval of Maenara's scum, town, inactivity list, given the fact that he is listed as number two on that list.
@Eleison: if you like those lists, how do you explain you appearing as scum to him?-
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dividizzle Goon
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dividizzle Goon
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After doing my reread, my initial reaction is that my two favored scum targets are NJAC and themoaner. Now I know that isn't terribly surprising because they have both drawn suspicion already but I want to point out a couple exchanges that made me question them.
In post 148, NJAC references themoaner and says he can’t tell if he’s scummy or not, keeping both distance and a lack of suspicion on him, then voting for someone else.
In post 183 he once again acknowledges that he had initial scum reactions to themoaner but then backs out.
Finally in post 242, NJAC questions why the wagon on themoaner died but quickly switches attention and places a vote on Slandaar for dubious reasons. It is worth noting that in the previous two posts he claimed that the wagon on themoaner didn’t look good, and then changed his mind to wonder why it didn’t go further.
I can’t tell if this is the play of a couple scum interacting. It raised suspicion with me because it just seemed very phony, as if placing some blame would distance him but not enough to actually cause themoaner any danger. Thoughts?
Also, just to add my opinions on two of the other most argued over players, I think both Pirate Mollie and Jun are giving me town vibes, albeit not in normal ways.-
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dividizzle Goon
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dividizzle Goon
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That is actually a pretty terrible case against me and I hope it is just coincidence that it comes right after I mention some suspicion of you. Just to deal with a couple of the points:
How is apologizing (by the way it's not really an apology it's more like a hello) a scumtell? Literally introducing myself...feel free to check my activity since I joined the site and you'll see there is nothing forced or manufactured about that introduction. Plus, you'll notice that it's pretty clear that I don't really know what to do in that very early stage and I start to participate more when I start to see what's going on.
As to the definition of in-town, I was clearly questioning what appeared to be a mild contradiction on his part, not his use of language.
'favored scum targets' is a scummy thing to say? really??
I don't think I was really fencesitting on those two either, because I said they seemed town to me though others claimed they seemed scummy.
I'm very intrigued by some of the things you think are scumtells.
@Smash: Reading Mcstab's iso seemed sketchy because of the intense focus on the obvious inactive/lurker and lack of anything else. Though what interested me just as much was the questioning of him by Shinori and categorical denial by Slandaar.-
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dividizzle Goon
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dividizzle Goon
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I just did a reread of Mollie's iso and here are some thoughts:
- I'm not as concerned about her wild scumhunting as themoaner is. While she does do quite a bit of jumping around, it strikes me as overzealous but not overtly suspicious.
- The references to the other mafia site do seem mildly scummy. I am not as held up over her self-description as new or not but she does use the other site and its different setup to deflect criticism or suspicion at times.
- The most town-leaning point for me is that Mollie and I have had some overlap in other scum suspicions. obviously this could mean that I have been incorrect, but it is hard to view Mollie as scum for that reason.
- I do agree that she has reacted poorly to pressure from votes.
@Slandaar: You seem confident about this vote but haven't articulated a case against Mollie, why do you find her so scummy?-
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dividizzle Goon
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dividizzle Goon
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I could support a Mcstab lynch. Although the fact that we now know he has requested replacement means in theory we should give the replacement a chance to say hello.
Also @Slandaar: in reference to you saying that if we lynch a lurker it should be PMysterious, I think the case against NJAC goes beyond just lurking. I detailed the beginning of it in an earlier post and when i get more time tonight, I can state it more.-
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dividizzle Goon
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@Smash: Usually scumslips scare me in terms of being a rationale for quicklynch because they seem like they are often toeing the line between damning and trivial. I also have just found that D1 is harder for me because I like to rely on analyzing a person's overall actions/interactions. I have to leave but more to post this afternoon.-
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dividizzle Goon
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Sorry guys, had some technical difficulties yesterday. I have been set back by the recent replacing and returning. A couple things I think though:
buldemar's claim that any town player (regarding mollie) would have read previous games strikes me strangely. I still don't think I can get behind a Mollie lynch but I could get behind a numbersguy lynch and I agree that could give us a lot of information about Mollie as well.
As for numbers guy, I don't think the 'scumslip' was incredibly telling (as previously stated) but I do think his reaction has been poor, focusing on the issue and continuing to try to talk around it. I feel like town would have acknowledged that something they said was construed as scummy instead of backing into a wall and taking a me vs. them attitude.
Unvote
Vote: 10506670-
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dividizzle Goon
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Mollie is L-1 and I personally just got caught up for the day and would like to see the plan enacted that (I forgot who posted it and don't have time to check) someone said about posting top 3 scum targets. I have class now but I will be able to post that tonight. If people don't like that plan by all means go on playing but I would like to see that info before a lynch and I will be gone for a few hours. Anyway, back later.-
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dividizzle Goon
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I don't like the speed at which Shinori got votes, though I will say his defense was less than convincing. Also, the "die"/didn't know it was hammer seems very suspicious to me.
Also, just to point out, theomoaner arguing with telo seems almost similar to his argument with Mollie (in manner not necessarily in content) on the first day and that didn't turn out well (lynching Mollie the townie).
I think I look at some voting things.-
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dividizzle Goon
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I'm sorry guys, I'm still around. No excuses for not posting even though those silly arguments did dissuade me. I just caught up on the last 3 pages so it's slightly time delayed given that it seems the shinori wagon is fading slightly but what scared me the most about that wagon was how quickly it arose. someone mentioned earlier that there were sheep on it and I agree with that but it seemed to have a lot of momentum especially considering that the mollie wagon ended up lynching town. I do want to look at voting and I PROMISE I will post about it tonight even if it seems to be nothing after looking at it.-
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dividizzle Goon
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I have never played with masons before either, but clearly they were in contact so the other option is that they are mafia, which could explain the day 2 start. This doesn't seem reasonable because one would suspect that mafia would target a claimed mason with a night kill.
So anyway, it's interesting that Eleison notes Maenara and Hiraki switching votes to his wagon because on the original Mollie wagon they constitute the beginning impetus. Maenara goes as far to point out L-5, implying for the first time a lynch really coming. It is interesting to note that Maenara was not on the final Mollie wagon, though both were on Shinori at its peak.
Also should be pointed out, that aside from Smash and Eleison, the two that were on the final Mollie wagon as well as the Shinori wagon that rapidly gained steam were buldemar and hiraki. Buldemar is on the Mollie wagon despite not really having too much fault with Mollie (correct me if I'm wrong), but he states that he'd rather see a Mollie lynch than no lynch. Then on day 2 proceeds to go right after shinori. I may be grasping at straws but that seems like blaming shinori for an incorrect mollie lynch that he participated on but distanced himself from.
Alright, I need to go to bed, I will puzzle over this a bit more and i'll be on tomorrow.
Also, just to note, this hinges on the fact that the Mollie lynch killed a town and that the Shinori wagon gained steam a little bit too quickly for my suspicion.-
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dividizzle Goon
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In post 774, Smashbard wrote:
It's not ideal that we claimed so early, as the original plan was to bread crumb our roles with the whole first letter of every post Day 2 thing, then refer back to Day 2 to confirm the surviving mason if one of us should die. But other circumstances have arisen, which gives me red flags on quite a few players behaviors. More on that once I've had a chance to analyze Mollies Day 1 wagon, Slandaars interactions & Shinori's day 2 wagon.
I feel like I am missing something simple here. Why would that be a better scenario? Wouldn't it be better to have two confirmed town than one after the other dies?
I also missed the reason why you had to claim so early, if not for the one post I remember seeing in which you stated you had good reason to believe eleison was town, but then more conversation went on after that.
I'm not 100% convinced by the argument that it would make no sense for a mafia group of more than 2 to declare 2 of their members to be mason partners. Why would they be leaving their other members in the dust? They would be in the exact same position as before. If two of their mafia could develop town cred, it would be extremely beneficial to them.-
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dividizzle Goon
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dividizzle Goon
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Vote: Maenara
I think Maenara is the scummiest player right now. I am also much more comfortable with a Maenara lynch than a Jun lynch. Jun has made some strange comments but not particularly scummy in my eyes. As for the case on maenara, aside from what I was already suspicious of, I think qwints reason #2 in post 814 is telling. Looking at Maenara's ISO and focusing on analysis of mollie, he jumps from all sides of the spectrum. He also shows, in my opinion, way too much pleasure in lynching someone he very well admits could be town.-
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dividizzle Goon
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dividizzle Goon
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Ok, in response to what buldemar said:
- I hardly think it's strange to find something suspicious but be concerned about joining a wagon that seemed scum-driven. Yes, I had/have suspicions but I was scared off by that wagon.
- I did look at voting and yes it was one post delayed, I fail to see your point.
- You are grossly exaggerating my 'case' against you. I pointed out something suspicious, I didn't try to push other people onto it. I just thought it was worth mentioning. I would much rather prefer a Maenara lynch.
@buldemar/qwints: I understand the logic of a shinori-maenara scum team and I'll admit the two of you on a Shinori wagon already seems more town-ish than the last one. After typing that though I went back to check the wagon and both claimed masons are on it. I’ll admit I didn’t realize that until now. My question is whether or not Hiraki and Maenara (assuming they were scum bussing as you think might be true) really thought they could get off the wagon without someone hammering or if they were willing to take it to Shinori’s grave? It got very close after numbers L-1 vote.
@qwints more in particular: At least, in my opinion, it's hard to draw anything conclusive from a potential scum player making the safe play rather than really furthering a wagon. The vote on Shinori could be seen as a safe/neutral play.-
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dividizzle Goon
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In post 923, buldermar wrote:
Why did you consider the wagon scum-driven? Who do you think was driving it?
It was more than one post delayed. It could be interpreted as if you were deliberately postponing voting to allow picking a target more likely to get lynched. That is scummy.
I found it perculiar that you would make a case against me in that way without really following up on it. It could be interpreted as if you were testing if others were willingly buying it before placing your vote. Avoidance of placing votes could be scummy because it allows for it not to be too "locked", which would lead to missing out on other lynching opportunities.
I think it's important that we get a clear answer from Hiraki soon regarding Shinori.
It was the fact that town had just driven a mistaken lynch in Pirate Mollie and while I was feeling hesitant, others seemed very willing to quickly load up on another wagon. As I just pointed out, it surprised me to go back and see that both masons (whose claim I am trusting for the moment) were on it.
It was one of MY posts delayed, perhaps you were unclear about that. And it occurred after all that stupid arguing that derailed a lot of things. Then I did look at voting and rather than making a ‘case’ against you, I pointed out something interesting.-
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dividizzle Goon
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This is the second time Maenara has pulled a brand new case out against competing wagons and declared it to be the unifying case that all town could agree upon. Though it’s obviously about me, I think it should look contrived and desperate to anyone reading it. @Maenara: if you have any specific questions that you want me to address from your case feel free to ask them, rather than me picking apart the whole thing.
Aside from Maenara, Hiraki’s defense post (#978) is begging to be thought of as a power role even though he denies it. In the case that it was unintentionally misleading, it still represents what seems to me to be a flawed sense of certainty in a town-player’s mind. I do believe it was earlier in this game when I was gently admonished for claiming someone seemed town because they shared similar scum reads as me.
Also, Hiraki, you did say even if you didn’t like the Maenara lynch, you would be willing to hammer. Yet you are certain of Maenara being town, implying that there is something else to be gained from a Maenara lynch?
Anyway, back to the issue of Maenara. The creation of a new case for the second time to avoid competing wagons seems to be an attempt to appear as a unifying town figure. I also think that Maenara recognized that buldemar was suspicious of me and tried to use buldemar’s recent activity and influence in that way.-
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dividizzle Goon
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@Maenara: I just looked back at Jun's iso and my overall simplified thought is slight scum read. It wouldn't be my favorite choice for a lynch but there are some interesting things to look at. For example, several times he has someone as a town read until they get a certain amount of pressure and then conveniently sees them in a different light (ex. Pirate Mollie and Shinori). Some of his defenses of other people are so blatant though, I do think his flip would provide an interesting lens with which to view previous interactions. I understand what Hiraki is saying that some of his actions that could be construed as scummy are also potentially from a new player. However, I am not desiring to trust Hiraki's reads right now. Now I'm off to read up on combinatorial-
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dividizzle Goon
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My read on combinatorial is less developed. First impression is leaning town. I'm not quite clear (perhaps because I just finished reading his iso) where his case on Jun becomes so intense. He seems very certain at this point but that surprises me a bit. Other than that, his early posts struck me as quite town, though since then not as much. Still probably leaning town and I would definitely advocate a Jun lynch over a combinatorial lynch.-
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dividizzle Goon
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dividizzle Goon
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@buldemar regarding post addressed to me. What do you mean what use is it? Do you want me to make up a firm view when I'm not that confident. I'm sorry, I won't do that. You are telling me that you are 100% sure about the alignment of every player in this game? If I had to decide now I would say he's town but obviously I'm not sure, I apologize if my lack of omniscience inconveniences you. By the way treat this post as if it came before his most recent potential scumslip, which I haven't thought through.-
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I agree with the last thing that theomoaner said about qwints death being likely because he simply seemed very town and most people agreed on it.
I'm also curious to see whether or not enigma is going to explain his hat comment more than saying it was just a joke. Were you confused about what you had said before?
Of course, Maenara is also incredibly scummy in the way that he misrepresents information and asserts very weak cases as fact. sorry i have to run, i'll be back this afternoon-
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dividizzle Goon
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@Jun: Don't worry, I find Maenara very scummy as well, but it was the way you asserted your own innocence as matter-of-fact that raised red flags for me.
@Smashboard: Why do you think I am scum? I honestly assumed that people were ignoring maenara because the case was so contrived, baseless and tunneled. Also, what advantage can be gained from not revealing your reads?-
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dividizzle Goon
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dividizzle Goon
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I think buldemar detailed quite well actually how thin the case on me is, he even mentioned that. I apologize for being a cautious town player, I really do, but nobody else seems to have any idea what's going on either. Theomoaner in #1221 makes a good point about Maenara pushing hard for this lynch without really addressing me.
Also, Re: #1219 by Smash, it's interesting that you see it that way. The video to me seemed almost more scummy, as if trying to deflect attention by turning it into more of a joke than actually dealing with what was said and how it came to be (whether by accident or by slip).
I think it's interesting that Hiraki has dodged suspicion recently. He has said some pretty strange things but we let him get away with it because that seems to be who he is. He was one of my scumreads early on and has since dropped away. I will take a look at it.-
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dividizzle
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dividizzle Goon
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@Maenara: In #1218 you mention the advantage of being able to demonstrate body language and similar. This part made you angry and you said it was as close to cheating as possible. What could you gain from reading his body language and how does that tie in to your theory of him as scum?
You then go on to say that the video came and got you all confused, presumably about your read. My question then is why you reacted angrily to more information.
ALSO, As should be obvious by mykonian posting, Maeanara is at L-1 even though it wasn’t pointed out. I have found maenara scummy for quite some time but I want to give her a chance to defend further why she wasn’t trying to get enigma modkilled for an easy kill. And also to answer my question from above.-
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dividizzle Goon
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I think what he is saying is that at this point, not lynching a mason is tantamount to explicitly believing them. I don't want to lynch one, I'm just saying that seems to be the implication. I'll admit I never fully understood the reasons given as to why mafia wouldn't want to fake a mason claim. At the time it seemed as if people thought that would be a crazy idea but I didn't see it. However, I agree that Smash has seemed very town. I apologize for being busy. I have two essays due today and it's homecoming weekend but I should be around in general.-
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I guess Maenara just kind of answered the question I was about to ask but if we lynched a mason and he flipped town, then wouldn't scum surely kill the other one? Thus, we would still not have any confirmed town players. If we choose to lynch a mason it should be because there is legitimate reason to believe they lied and not because we think one confirmed townie will benefit us.-
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I don't think we should rely on an investigative role to look at the masons because I assume that would have already happened. Especially if we were on the brink of making the absolutely crucial decision of whether or not to lynch or trust the masons, that would obviously be valuable.
Also @Smash: Do you really think that Maenara and Enigma could both be scum?-
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I'm not scum, Maenara. You just made a whole post about thinking outside your perception, about considering other options if your top scum read isn't scum. Yet, you don't seem to be doing that at all. I'm confused and probably too cautious, but that doesn't mean I'm scum.
One of the things that makes me question you is statements like the one you made about CE: "All I've read from him screams scum." You have made similar statements about me. These are obviously ridiculous, because it makes it seem like you are trying so hard to twist every little thing into a scum read, when in reality if someone is scum then likely a large number of the things they say can seem very town, but they will mess up or get caught doing something anti-town. That's when you get them. You decide who you want to be scum and then take every little thing they say and create this story about how each thing is oozing scumminess when in reality, it isn't.
Despite this, my vote now goes to CE. The fact that he is on the Maneara wagon but Maenara isn't on the CE wagon seems important to me too. Mae could easily push for a CE lynch as CE is doing for Mae. However, if CE were to be town, then I think that whole issue with Maenara protesting the video becomes much more important.
Vote: combinatorialEnigma-
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@Maenara: Re: #1354, Don't get me wrong, based on pure scumreads I would happily be involved in a wagon for your lynching. however, at the time, if you look at both wagons, I think one looks decidedly more town than the other. This was a perfect example though. Anything I could have done, you would have taken as a scum read. I'm not advocating one-scumslip lynching, as should be obvious by my reluctance earlier to do so. But, the idea that every little thing is a slip is just as flawed.
@Thebuttonmen: What do you think about the lack of support for your Hiraki wagon? Also about his recent increase in activity?-
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Jun, please reconsider. This is a very difficult game to replace into and a very crucial point in that game. Finding a replacement and getting him/her caught up would be difficult.
I personally would like to hear opinions from those not on either of the two wagons. @Buttonmen and @numbers : How do the two wagons look to you from the outside and what is your motivation for your current vote status (on Hiraki or no voting)-
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dividizzle
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Ok, so here is my thinking, let me know if it is incorrect.
People have been assuming that there are 4 members of a scum team. If that is true, one mislynch will likely end the game. It takes 6 votes to lynch. Thus, four scum could easily railroad one player if they got 2 votes on them. That brings me to two potential conclusions (and an addendum).
1) Maenara is scum. If this is the case it would explain why scum members haven't quick lynched her.
2) There are at least two scum members currently voting Maenara (so that the remaining two would not be enough to force a quick lynch)
2a) There is not a four person scum team.
While I completely agree that Maenara has seemed incredibly scummy at points in this game, my one question is whether or not town players would feel confident enough in their votes to put her in a position in which, if she were town, scum could quicklynch and win.-
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