Touhou UPick 3 - [Game Over]

[fferyllt]

hi guys!

I'm confirmed town? Nice.

Catching up!

[fferyllt]

I'm reading the neighborhood now.

p-edit hai!

[fferyllt]

I was planning to do a magua-style replace-in this time. :/


After reading through the neighborhood and I have pretty comfy townfeels about pieguy.

[fferyllt]

well there's like 1 scum left and 3 flipped so magua-style replacing isn't as effective imo but whatevs

Yeah I know. I'm actually planning more of an NY 172 style replace in. ONE DAY i WILL REPLACE IN TO A GAME AND NOT READ A DAMN THING!

Why is gif conftown? why am I conftown? There were 2 kills on n2 AND n3. Does it make sense that they are not from the same origin?

[fferyllt]

FF: You are town clear because I copped you for SB = TOWN. This is a non-bastard setup so I'm assuming no insane cop hilarity.

GiF/thghghasd confirmed town because their role pms apparently allowed them to mutually confirm each other, were both confirmed town by Kilga, before he heroically exploded.
Muffin modconfirmed town but also treestump.

Sky/Pie/Kagomi/Shadoweh probably town because lynching all the scums.

Rylai probably town because role shenanigans.

Kats/Ank probably scum for many reasons.

Also FF: Can you confirm if SB mentioned my ability re: immunity in the neighbour QT on day 1/night 1? I want to be able to rule this bit out. Thanks.

SB didn't mention anything about this in the neighborhood that I saw.

Pie should have been able to answer this question, too, though. When did it become a concern? This game day?

[fferyllt]

Someone lay out all the neighborhoods/members?

[fferyllt]

Action Dan wasn't in a neighborhood?

[fferyllt]

triple isoing the flipped scum.

should probably spoiler this, but meh.

First thing that jumps out is 1) how srsface serene's forest was about pushing SB about his rvs vote, and how quickly sakura pointed it up and asked if it was a valid offsite tell in post 52.

78 - making note of this because this is who AD srsvotes after RVS. Sakura's one comment to relentless prior to AD's vote was devoid of game content.

159 sakura's using her vote to seal notsci and ankamius (after unvoting gif).

sakura scumreads sf in 322 - kinda. isn't using her votes to push lynches.


Action Dan's first reads list:

Ok I've read up to page 7 so far but imma take a break to get thoughts out.

First
UNVOTE:

Shadowehs 1st post is blazingly town

VOTE: Relentless

Not for anything related to the massclaim comment but for the rest of it. Gif isn't making whitenoise when there's a read in the same post. Suspicion on serene for voting shadoweh is overdone when it's clearly a wagon vote.

The only thing of merit is the question (accompanied by a threat which is weird kinda like knowing sb is serious bananas but stating he doesn't know him) to kagami. Because i agree that post was trash.

For much the same reasons I am disliking SkyPal for overly criticizing serene and questioning the shadoweh vote when it's a non issue.

Pretty ok with rylai seems town.

If it wasn't obvious I think serene is town with that explanation of the sb suspicion and I can follow it.

Pieguy's read list is skeevy especially with all three of serene sky and relentless on there plus a nonentity like ank plus the massclaim of the spell cards with the condition of not revealing why per his discretion is not something I readily trust

- mild defense of serene/ooba's slot with a FoS of skypal. ignores sakura. throws suspicion on pieguy, defends gif/votes Relentless.

I am not really seeing anything that jumps out here as another scum/scum relationship on the face of it.

Sakura in 350 pushes back on both of Action Dan's town reads. She doesn't have anything to say about his vote. Given she's interacted with both other flipped scum, there are probably interactions with her whole team.

After posturing about how she's using her vote, she unvotes GiF and votes Rylai in 414. Naked vote. explains she agrees with Pieguy about an earlier post and a later post is even worse. This feels pretty empty, so I kinda don't think it's scum/scum.

458 Another example of Action Dan defending a buddy. This time Sakura.

490 Sakura joins AD on Rylai. kiiinda not seeing this as a bus/distancing. Expresses concern about Serene too in this post and the next one. Which makes the Rylai vote look even more like a vote on town to me.

These three posts come together, and comprise Sakura reads at this point in the game.

muffin, can you tell me your thoughts on SkyPal, Relentless, SB and Serenes?

^^ Should I expect more than 1 scumread in this list?

Just a heads up I probably won't have as much time as I expected to play. This is gonna continue for at least the next 2 months and while I could postpone it I really shouldn't, so idk if I'll manage to keep playing catch-up for long

With that out of the way I don't think Dan has even made posts like these before, like holy shit. I really like his #458 because I had the same thoughts about Kagami's vote timing when reading through the Sakura/Pie/Kagami exchange. I specially don't like the way Kagami voted first and explained later only after being prodded for it, it feels like they forced a conclusion early because they were actively participating in the conversation and were looking to match pie's growing suspicion. Outside of that 90% of their posts are some variant of setupspec, mod meta or the like which is easy stuff to comment on as scum to mask noncontent and appear active.

##Vote: Kagami

Also disliking Sakura because she's actively posting but extremely passive, I can only recall her posting when it's in reply to people's thoughts about her or questions she's being asked, and both of her scumreads (me, Rylai) seem to come up only after being pressured to voice an opinion by people pushing her for answers on very specific questions (muffin's 321 and pie's 420) while ignoring more general ones (mine in 285). She also seems to have switched onto voting scumreads after relentless called her out on using her votes to seal day abilities instead of voting who she thinks is scum so her whole game comes across as passive and reactionary. MS people should probably let me know if this is her usual thing.

I'm pretty sure Relentless has read/played games in MotK before and he's just fucking with everyone for the fun of it, Shadoweh meta, SB = serious bananas and asking things to Dan before everyone else (because he barely posts at all when playing in MotK) can't all be coincidences sorry :V
That said I really don't like his playstyle and could count the amount of times he's said stuff I agreed with in one hand but eh, his #374 and #447 do read genuine, specifically the questions aimed at SB, Rylai and Shadoweh, so I just kinda hope he drops the threats/aggressive attitude in general because there are other ways to exert pressure and it just makes him harder to read.

My point against thdg earlier doesn't stand anymore seeing I missed his #253, ultimately think he's like 90% town but I still don't agree with his reads on me or Pie.
@thdg wrt your "can't read the future" stuff in #245 and #399 I did restate my reason for dropping SB in #67 after your #65, but the originally stated reason is there in #47 so I don't see how you couldn't have understood why I unvoted SB

I figure you'd doublecheck your meta references as scum considering you've spent long periods of time looking for games where you haven't bussed your buddies to reference in other games so
eh

Still think SB is town, for more "SB wouldn't be this careless as scum" Skypal should read through the first page on SCP mafia and see how he reacted to early votes on him as scum there. If SB were scum this game do you think he'd panic in response to an ED1 vote and make up meta stuff that doesn't exist considering that I could check it easily and very much implied that I would? If so how would that response make sense with both of us being scum?
Currently agree with Shadoweh that Skypal is probably Confirmation Biased As Shit because all of his reads revolve around himself and his vote and there doesn't seem to be any thought going on towards the rest of the game.

Don't really have a solid opinion on Rylai, I think he's more likely town than not based on how he replied to stuff relatively early in 366 and 409 instead of lurking for a third of the phase before doing so but reading activity patterns in 8 day phases is pretty useless when we're used to 72h

General impressions
Town: thdg = GiF >> Dan
Minor Town: SB = Kilga = Mala >> Pie
Dunno (need more posts): Rylai, Drezi, notscience, Ankamius, Gaiden, Shadoweh
Dunno (can't get a proper read despite content): Relentless, Muffin, Skypal
Scum: Kagami >> Sakura

cut by like a whole page of posts

^^Serene's reads list. First two players mentioned are scum buddies. Also noting the FoS Sakura, vote Kagami behavior, which also I think makes Kagami less likely to be scum. Putting two scumbuddies in the scumpile seems unlikely? The mention of Rylai and Relentless before the "general impressions" section makes me think one of them could be scum.

I'm currently at an inpasse, I'm not sure if i'm townreading SkyPal because of the verbosity of his latest post or because he actually went and digged into meta to support his reasoning, i'm not sure if i'm giving a free pass to relentless or he's actually town, but there's not much I remember from his posts other than the discussion wrt SB and SF and the role claim, not sure if im giving SB a townread just because someone else fumbled the meta or because their posts are actually genuine, and im not sure if i like Serenes posts against me, or i feel his reads have a natural trajectory.

I'm kinda confused atm @_@

Phenomenal amount of waffle!

Literally this is the people i'm townreading via gut:

Gaiden

,

mufifn

, pie,

GIF

,

Dan

, Anka (Cbot), Kagami,

notty

this is the people i'm unsure about and pretty confused:

thkgdswhathever

,

SB

, SkyPal, Relentless,

Kilgamayan

,

mala

,

Serene

, Shadoweh (I feel they are town, but something doesn't feel right)
Literally my only scumread feels too easy: Rylai

Wondering if the conclusion that there's one scum in each group is also too easy.

613 Sakura comments on The Relentless replacing out, but not Serene.

663Sakura unvotes katsuki/relentless and votes ooba. Which is an interesting choice.

Also noticing a ton of Drezi wking going on.

ooba's first reads list:

Strong Town
-

Sakura Hana

(Claim - both timing and wording)
- Katsuki\Relentless (for the massclaim pushes)
- pieguyn (Town reads in #114 somewhat agreeing with my shortlist and general posting feels spot on)

Mild Town
-

Malakittens

(for “Rentless could be town, but no masclaim.”)
-

zMuffinMan

(Intial posting was neutral but turned to a mild town read across pages. Cannot pinpoint)
- Rylai Crestfall (for scum reading Sky\General posting)

Town leaning but not as much as above
-

SB

Don’t Like
-

thdgkdms

(push on predecessor\calling pies 144 bad)
- Kagami (don't like posting\also 'neighbourhood spec')

Scum?
- Sky_Paladin (The attack on my predecessor #112 has a scummy vibe.)

left out a few players, including action dan. The katsuki read feels a llittle off. So does the Kagami read.

ooba's reaction to the gladiate threat:

Ok. Extremely fast skim done.

@Muffin:

"@ooba, if I were to choose you as a gladiator candidate (which would technically involve declaring you as a target), would anything negative happen to me?"
Nothing would happen to you. People shouldn't waste stuff on me at night.

That said I think we should double lynch between these Sky\SB\Thgkdms\Drezi.
- I don't think we'll get traction on Kdms (why is this slot being townread - all I can see is a focus on me ignoring all other players)
- Sky's play has been scummy. But there have been some confusing 'too scummy to be scum' markers at times.
- I thought Sky and SB's mutual vote on each other followed by unvotes looked like a bus. SB's unvote on Sky to vote Pie was also weird.
- Drezi's just stuff - I cannot see genuine scum hunting in those posts

I would say we should go ahead with the double lynch today on {SB+Drezi} or {Sky+Drezi}. While I can see the logic in waiting for D2 for more info, we also get more info getting into N1.

---

Other stuff:
- Mala's town read weakened because posting reduced. Notty's vote on Mala plus general reads pushes him to town.
Town reads: Sakura, Kats, Pie, Muffin, Rylai --(milder)--> Notty, GiF

The bolded imo points pretty strongly to town-skypaladan. ooba is still pretty much ignoring action dan.

I keep seeing it being peddled (by Sky really) that Serene merely unvoted and voted Shadoweh to apply Pressure. No, they voted Shadoweh not just to futher a bandwagon on any old wagon but to explictly further hers, because they stated (and to a degree it's true) that with a growing bandwagon town!Shadoweh and scum!Shadoweh act differently and Serene was looking for that difference.

Also in a choice between Ooba and Sky I'll be voting Sky.

We could all vote Kagami whose posts between the last time I mentioned her and now have not impressed me at all. Just saying

Dan defends ooba and pushes kagami and sky as alternatives.

From here I just read contextually to the day 1 lynch. I don't think Kagami and Dan look like scum-scum in their arguments.

[fferyllt]

sigh

Deleted the double post. -mod

[fferyllt]

Which neighborhood are you wondering about?

[fferyllt]

It's mostly notes to self, but comments or exclamations would be cool.

I'll be working my way through day 2 and maybe day 3 tonight, depending on how long I stay awake.

[fferyllt]

Ffery: What do you think about Ooba's reasoning on Rylai in #737?

I haven't really looked at Rylai's posts and won't comb through living players' isos until after I've finished reviewing flipped scum. So, I'll get back to this.

My thought when I looked at ooba's reads list in that post was that if I were putting together a reads list as scum, Rylai was about where I'd probably put a buddy.

[fferyllt]

AD defended ooba/serenes and also defended Sakura.

Sakura distanced from ooba/serenes and asked AD a couple softball questions about his reads with no follow up.

ooba had sakura as his strongest town read and hardly mentioned AD.

I'm not sure yet how I think they'd interact with a 4th buddy.

[fferyllt]

The above is day 1 interactions.

[fferyllt]

6 pages. mostly from day 1.

[fferyllt]

I have another freakin wall on the way but I just ran into this post:

by virtue of an intentionally pro-scum meta.

I'm not sure how you can honestly believe this considering how I carried town in that FG game you were in. I'm just rather demotivated right now as I'm dealing with a lack of townreads and scumreads and haven't really had the time for this game anyways.

I neighborized Ooba N1. Still happy with my townread on him and oppose any lynch on him.

Motivated NS N2. He would've had a double-shot if he lived.

Have some other goodies in the bag. Needless to say if you guys are going to lynch me at least do it tomorrow not today,

Claim, Katsuki. Just fucking claim.

[fferyllt]

I'm on page 64 now, and my general impression of ooba is that he was in damage control mode and half expected to flip along with AD, or at least was preparing for that eventuality just in case.

With that in mind, his push on Ank's reads list in post 1550 feels wifomy.

This

If ZMuff is strong town, why is SB nullish?

was an interesting observation.

I've read Sky's post revealing his investigation result in iso. Really surprised he held onto it as long as he did, and I feel like the thunder was totally stolen by game events. I have other reasons to think he's town, but this aspect of his play/claim bothers me a little.

But then this post from ooba

I really think we shouldn't discuss reads\confirmed town\who's not before SkyPal gives his result.

makes me think he wasn't aware that Sky was locked into a result on SB. I think he would have known that if it were a scumbuddy's claim.

I like Sky's 1605, especially his questions to Ank about his reads list. The contrast to ooba's push on that list is that he had very specific questions unlike the "lining up lynches" comment ooba made.

by virtue of an intentionally pro-scum meta.

I'm not sure how you can honestly believe this considering how I carried town in that FG game you were in. I'm just rather demotivated right now as I'm dealing with a lack of townreads and scumreads and haven't really had the time for this game anyways.

I neighborized Ooba N1. Still happy with my townread on him and oppose any lynch on him.

Motivated NS N2. He would've had a double-shot if he lived.

Nope I will never discuss QT stuff ever unless it was because I was scumreading a neighbor.

Anyone who knows me knows I like QTs and dislike game threads. You're one of them.
Anyone who knows me also knows that I dislike communicating with obtuse people and VIs. You're acting like both.
Anyone who doesn't understand why I would motivate noddy is one of the above in point 2. I hope you're not actually one of those.

I see no point in claiming which are spell cards and which aren't. Hence I won't.

I took the effort to strip my rage from this post and type you a proper response. I would appreciate if you could please stop asking me stupid questions there's enough of those going around this game without you adding to them.

With love.

^^ Kats' QT stuff is now by his own words on the table. He was talking to scum in there, and the n1 and n2 discussions are relevant.

1714 by Ank gives me slight townvibes, mostly for the bit about associatives with ooba. It wasn't dead certain ooba was flipping on day 3, but it seems like enough of a possibility in the reread that I question whether scum would make a big ol argument about premature associatives with a scumbuddy.

OK.

So FakeGod confirmed he's never used a neighouriser role that could choose a target during the night and talk during the same night before.

If he's done it in this game, it's the first time he's ever done it.

This is pretty damn interesting. I wonder how consistent FG is overall as a mod with role mechanics.

I find it hard to believe Obba would be confused about what night and where he did things, although seeing both him and Ank made the same mistake is headdesk.

fwiw I habitually mistype this sort of thing, refering to days and nights both.

That's a stupid argument and you know it, katsuki.

If your scum-play were as distinctly different from your town play as you're suggesting, then your scumplay would indeed be terrible.

It is incredibly distinct though. That's why I'm always lynchbait when I'm town. :/

Actually, if you were to go back and read every scum game of mine since I started playing on this site, the only times I've been lynched as scum outside LYLO are direct results of investigations.

The disney princess game called. Left a message. something about PoE.

Pieguy immediately assuming AD's reaction means town-mala squicks me out a little bit. :/

I'm on page 83 and I need a break. back in a while.

[fferyllt]

Two kills. Wtf?

Why did this surprise you?

[fferyllt]

I am pretty sure Kilgamayan is town now, almost purely from his actions.

I think town would be more likely than scum to check the Lily pair Night 1, although granted it's entirely possible that it was a lie. I am inclined to believe that it is genuine simply because of him checking me on N2. It's technically possible for someone to figure out what I'm referring to with my posts about the other part of my role, but he stated something that basically confirms that he knows exactly what it is (or at least the general gist of it).

That's not indicative of town by itself, but I don't really see scum using that information to try to shut down Sky_Paladin's attempts to focus on that specific point. I'm "more in the PoE pool" than Sky_Paladin is (if that makes sense) and it's a really dubious scum play to go that angle.

This really feels like a townpost to me. I also like how he's buttonholed me about rylai (whom I have an extremely hypocritical urge to castigate for picking a name with too many, and odd vowels/combos). Problem though, is that there are much stronger reasons to see other players as town based on interactions with known scum, votes, etc.

I've finished day 3.

TOWNTOWNTOWN:
GiF
Shadoweh
zmuffin (heh)

TOWN
SkyPaladin
PieGuy
kagami

MAYBE TOWN/NOT SO TOWN
Ank
Rylai
katsuki

This isn't a very edgy reads list. I want to dig further into my 2nd tier reads as well as the bottom tier.

[fferyllt]

That's how I format my reads lists. The headings started as a joke because I tend to townread/PoE, and because I often only have 1 or 2 scumreads early in a game.

"NOT SO TOWN" is functionally scum. You can translate MAYBE TOWN to null if you like. I have another heading I sometimes use, but this game is beyond the need for 5 categories.

[fferyllt]

it's pretty edgy. i don't remember the last time you called me town without stating paranoia about me

I remember!

[fferyllt]

Ok, so my 2nd tier town pile:

Sky_Paladin - he's a townread because of his interactions with Sakura, how Sakura reacted to his push, and what looked like a thorough effort at meta-ing her. She mostly had varying levels of townread in the game thread on day 1, so there wasn't much motive for a scum partner to bus her. Sky says his reason for investigating SB was because nailing down SB's alignment would provide a lot of game info. I'd like to know what he meant by this and what made him change his pieguyn read.

pieguyn - he's a townread because of his night 1 posts in the neighborhood. His angst about being the probable sky-vig kill came off very town to me, as did his interactions with Sakura. I also want to say/think that it's unlikely there would be two scum in our neighborhood, but from what I understand about the way the uPick design was approached, I doubt that's a safe thing to setup-spec. He preferred a Katsuki lynch to ooba for the most part, and it's hard for me to read that part of the thread objectively knowing that ooba was the primary counter-option. I'm holding back one thought.

kagami - after losing to scum-kagami twice and seeing a hardfighting town manage to pull a draw out against her once, I'm cautious here. The interactions with AD point to town-kagami, though and I've never seen her posture that way with a scumbuddy. I think her strengths as scum lie elsewhere than in scum theater.

[fferyllt]

FF: You are town clear because I copped you for SB = TOWN. This is a non-bastard setup so I'm assuming no insane cop hilarity.

GiF/thghghasd confirmed town because their role pms apparently allowed them to mutually confirm each other, were both confirmed town by Kilga, before he heroically exploded.
Muffin modconfirmed town but also treestump.

Sky/Pie/Kagomi/Shadoweh probably town because lynching all the scums.

Rylai probably town because role shenanigans.

Kats/Ank probably scum for many reasons.

Also FF: Can you confirm if SB mentioned my ability re: immunity in the neighbour QT on day 1/night 1? I want to be able to rule this bit out. Thanks.

why did you not mention zmuffin's parity cop result? That actually clears me with a ton more certainty.

[fferyllt]

similar to my own thoughts on interaction, except that my pieguy read primarily stems from D1 interactions with sakura and AD

Do you have nightmarish thoughts about the game harboring a traitor?

[fferyllt]

(it actually doesn't, since fakegod said if i investigated a godfather and another scum member, i'd get "different alignment" as a result, unless you just mean it's a second investigation, in which case, yeah sure)

I meant it's an investigation with the parity-pair half-flipped, and the investigator is confirmed town, vs an investigation that went a long damn time not being shared, and shared at a point where your investigation result would narrow down options for a hypothetical scum-Sky to play with.

[fferyllt]

What has the 4.5 scum speculation been about? I can't remember who put that forward offhand.

[fferyllt]

I didn't mention it because muffin's cop didn't town clear SB. At least as I understand parity cop, when he said 'There is

at least

one scum between Dan and SB' does not exclude the possibility of both SB and Dan being scum.

I had a result that said you were town though so that's what I reported.

I don't think that's how parity cop works.

[fferyllt]

my understanding is that parity cop gets a result of the two players are the same alignment, or they are of different alignments.

Is this correct zmuffin?

[fferyllt]

Why did you pick Shadoweh?

[fferyllt]

you had the whole game day to leave crumbs.

she was pretty close to solid confirmed with two scumhammers on day 3?

[fferyllt]

I'm not really sure how I'd go about crumbing something like that in a game where the flips don't reveal abilities.

Why did you wait until so late to mention ooba's beloved princess claim?

[fferyllt]

katsuki what are your spell card abilities?

[fferyllt]

ooba's beloved princess fake claim really confuses me.

He was scum in reck's retrospective rehash game, which had a beloved prince who didn't claim until day 5 or maybe 6. I replaced in on day 7, so I'm not sure exactly when the claim happened. Anyway, scum got him lynched on day 8 for the win.

ooba and the whole scum team put a ton of effort into deciding what their fake claims would be in that game. The options were limited and had to be carefully thought out so that from the start the scum players would be keeping all of that in mind.

He mentioned in this game that he carefully crafts his claims as scum. This claim feels weird because it was a death sentence, though maybe he thought town would put it off until effectively lylo like the town in reck's game did? I kinda wonder if ooba and katsuki discussed it at all, or if it was a shoot from the hip thing katsuki did.

[fferyllt]

aaaaanticipation!

[fferyllt]

Shadoweh how do you feel about a katsuki lynch?

[fferyllt]

For sure.

I wanted to know your thoughts because of how town and stuff you are, though.

We have 5.5 days left, give or take. If katsuki doesn't fully claim in a reasonable timeframe we'll have to move on to other claims.


p-edit what zmuffin said.

[fferyllt]

I've played one game with katsuki-scum. He was quite smooth, but daring - lolhammered the partial-claiming jailkeeper just a couple days into day 1 and blew it off.

[fferyllt]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Hider

Similar to a weak cop. If the hider hides behind town, any action directed at the other player affects the hider (depending on the variant, but that's the typical variant) If he hides behind scum, he dies.

[fferyllt]

So have you gotten results from your telegnosis ability? Did Rylai target you?

[fferyllt]

So how does it work?

[fferyllt]

Have you asked the mod whether it's passive or active?

[fferyllt]

In the Night Phase...

Katsuki visited ooba.
Kilgamayan visited GuyInFreezer.
notscience visited Sakura Hana.
ActionDan visited Kagami.

Someone explain - was it ever figured out if the visits were spell cards or abilities?

[fferyllt]

abilities, I guess since katsuki is claiming the ooba visit was a joat thing.

[fferyllt]

somewhat concerning that your targets are all dead.

Who's left to claim?

[fferyllt]

could speculate about what made letters a better kill but meh.

Who hasn't claimed? Pieguy?

Once that is out of the way then there are a couple things I want to discuss so plz don't hammer anytime soon Rylai.

[fferyllt]

That complicates things a little.

I have 2 spell cards I'm thinking about using today, which is why I don't want a quickhammer before we think about what I should do.

I could pick someone and use the same spell card that SB used. I'll learn how many cards they currently have.

Or, I could keep this thread open during the next night phase.

[fferyllt]

On night 3 there were only 2 posts in the neighborhood. SB didn't post at all. Pie posted about feeling dumb for second guessing himself at the end of day 3, and claimed responsibility for the red names on day 2.

[fferyllt]

I don't really understand why the neighborhood died back so completely after day 2.

Who that's still alive plays mafia with SB offsite?

[fferyllt]

Meh, I think katsuki's probably scum and the game will probably end when he's lynched.

me2

do you want a whole threadful of company tonight if you're wrong?

[fferyllt]

you've mentioned how your empty neighborhood has been really difficult for you.

[fferyllt]

It's one or the other. I can't use both today.

With SB indicating he got his card back after he used it, I wouldn't expect many players to lie about their cards.

I'm leaning strongly toward using the night chat card.

[fferyllt]

That's pretty much what I'm trying to say here. I think "I didn't do anything" is less likely than "I did something but nothing happened and I don't want to give people a reason to believe in town!Katsuki, but I'll totally say I am gut reading him as town so when he flips blue people will think 'well Pie did warn us' or something".

I admit that this line of thought is my own gut reaction and not clearly bounded in reality of the situation. That's why I want to ISO. But at the moment I am not arguing for a lynch of Pie or a salvation of Katsuki. I just wanted to raise this as An Issue To Discuss.

I have issues with him, but they aren't as strong as the issues I have with katsuki.

if the game doesn't end with a katsuki lynch, then pie p much moves to the head of the list of players of concern.

I'm going to try to chart out some stuff tonight.

[fferyllt]

I think I mean tonight tonight. I'm working on it right now.

I'm fuzzy on what actions people have claimed, what spell cards have been used and when. I'm trying to consolidate all that into one post so I can absorb it, mostly.

[fferyllt]

NotSci claimed his spell cards on night 2 after Sakura died. Was that info shared in the game thread? Should it be? I think it should be.

[fferyllt]

Post 113 in the neighborhood.

[fferyllt]

ok. going to paraphrase notsci's cards because neighborhood and I don't want to waste time finding out if it's ok to quote.

- card that makes him multishot for the night it's used.
- destroys all the cards. I'm assuming this is all the cards in the game.
- destroys a player's ability/ies - I'm assuming this is not spell card abilities.
- destroys neighborhood access - I'm assuming this is one player's neighborhood access, but it could mean destroying a whole neighborhood, I guess.

He said that if he used a card he couldn't use his kill, and he wasn't interested in doing that.

[fferyllt]

Confirmed town probably dies tonight. I think there's some benefit to processing the lynch results if katsuki is town and putting some thought into what next. It's an opportunity that at least one town player won't get otherwise.

[fferyllt]

Day 1 Spellcards

SB - Moon Wood Sign targeting Sky Paladin (info about a player's spell cards)
Rylai - Light Magic 「Star Maelstrom」(all visits night 1 made public at the end of the night phase, Rylai can't be targeted with spell cards day 1)

Night 1:

In the Night Phase...

Katsuki visited ooba.
Kilgamayan visited GuyInFreezer.
notscience visited Sakura Hana.
ActionDan visited Kagami.

Katsuki neighborized ooba
Kilgamayan rolecopped GiF?
notsci vigged Sakura
ActionDan did *something* to Kagami

VoteCount 2.0

• Katsuki [0] -
  
• ActionDan [0] -
  
• SB [0] -
  
• Sky_Paladin
  [0] -
  
• Malakittens [0] -
  
• ooba [0] -
  
• Shadoweh [0] -
  
• thdgkdms [0] -
  
• Ankamius [0] -
  
• SXTLHGaiden
  [0] -
  
• pieguyn
  [0] -
  
• notscience [0] -
  
• GuyInFreezer [0] -
  
• Kilgamayan [0] -
  
• Rylai Crestfall [0] -
  
• zMuffinMan
  [0] -
  
• Kagami
  [0] -

Not Voting [17]

- Katsuki, ActionDan, SB, Sky_Paladin, Malakittens, ooba, Shadoweh, thdgkdms, Ankamius, SXTLHGaiden, pieguyn, notscience, GuyInFreezer, Kilgamayan, Rylai Crestfall, zMuffinMan, Kagami

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch

.

Deadline is March 15, 2015, at Noon PST.
Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2015-03-15 14:00:00)

Players in red used spell cards on night 1.

Claimed N1 actions:

SkyPaladin - copped SB
pieguyn - bombed SkyPaladin (calls it a dayvig in post 2480, used a spellcard to highlight all players who used a spellcard on n1
zmuffin - parity-copped SB and AD
Kagami - postmanned Gaiden
Notscci - vigged Sakura

(anything else?)

Dead players on N2

- zmuffinman, treestumped, assumed to be the scumkill
- notscience, assumed to be because he was roleblocked which would kill him
- gaiden, ???? I forget!

Day 2 Spellcards:
Action Dan - Judgement "Guilty or Not Guilty" (ended day 2 before a lynch occurred, or something like that)

Spellcards used on Day 3

Ankamius - Rabies Bite: ActionDan (AD couldn't unvote except by spellcard or ability if he had one)
SB - Moon Wood Sign "Satellite Himawari" on Malakittens (learned how many spellcards she had)
pieguyn - Divine Spear "Spear the Gungnir" on Malakittens (dayvig)
Shadoweh - Flower Sign "Dual Spark" on ActionDan, Ooba (hammers both of them)

Night 3 deaths:

Kilgamayan, thdgkdms both assumed to be scum kills

Day 4 spellcards:

- none yet Rylai intends to use a card to hammer katsuki, ffery intends to use a card to enable night chat on night 4

Day 4 claims:

Katsuki:

I'm trying to imagine how someone who knows they just hard-defended scum while being next in line for lynching would not do their best to try to die. I don't even think it's my own bias to say confirming me is the worst possible move. It also makes me seriously wonder why Katsuki wouldn't use a hider shot on Sky P on Day 1 after being Super High School Level Convinced he was scum, it would have been super obvious who the target was in case of death.

So yeah basically my reaction was 'Okay, so I know Katsuki is described as a troll but like, a troll that believes they're good enough at the game to try and win it and prove he's better then everyone else right?'

I would never suicide into someone like SP, I value myself higher than that. I was considering hiding muffin N1 but didn't. In hindsight I shoud've.

@Muffin: Given the flips from yesterday you know as well as I do that what you said is bullshit and if I came into today going "WAIT GUIS I STILL HAVE A HIDE TO USE" you would've just deathtunneled that anyways. If anything that's what I would've done as scum because it would give me an extra day to live.


Since we're massclaiming

I'm yukari I think? Don't really have a chance to look at my PM right now

JOAT and got a bunch of interesting things. Still have a jailkeep shot left.

Spellcards I have one, which allows me to see the name of all QTs in the game I think. Pretty useless so I haven't used it yet considering that my JOAT abilities are far more useful to use.

CM can claim next.

Rylai:

Well, are we lynching Katsuki today? Because if not, I am going to force this lynch and I really don't want to >:(

Also, I'm the leader of the Myoren temple, Savior of those shunned by the human world, the saint of the masses, the one youkai Jesus herself. And my remaining spellcard lets me lynch anyone I want by myself.

My role is pretty boring.

Name: Momiji Inubashiri (Petty Patrol Tengu)
Race: Non-Human

Neighborhood Access: Youkai Mountain

Spellcard -> Rabies Bite (Day Use): Target player cannot unvote during the day phase. Does not affect spellcards.
Ability -> Telegnosis: At the beginning of the day phase, you become aware of every player who targeted you during the last night phase.

I wanted Rylai to think I might have dirt on him and panic for it if he's scum, but I now realized after looking at my PM again that it's probably not a passive ability anyway, so it wouldn't have said a whole lot by itself.

Kagami:

Ok, so I'm kogasa and I'm a postman.

I have a card, Rain Sign "A Rainy Night's Ghost Story," that lets me send an anonymous message at night. I have a passive ability that lets me regain my card anytime I'm on a successful lynch.

N1: I sent a message to gaiden.
N3: I sent a message to thdgkdms

Nothing in my role PM suggests that I could be in any way the cause of thdgkdms's death.

pieguyn:

remilia scarlet
the scarlet devil
non-human

2 abilities
vampire: hated
manipulation of fate: I can target a player during the night. if they have 1 or more day cards left, they must use one the following day or else they die. if they don't have any day cards left, I'm notified as such. used it N1 on Sky, didn't particularly see a reason to use it again after that.

2 spellcards
Scarlet Sign "Red the Nightless Castle": night-use. when I use it, everyone who used a spell card that night has their name written in red the next day. used it N1.

Divine Spear "Spear the Gungnir": we already know what this does (dayvig, only works on people with 0 or 1 spellcards left).

I'm also obviously a part of SDM neighborhood. anyway, this is why I called for people to claim if they'd use a spell card on N1 and why I wanted to claim last today. I was hoping scum would attempt to lie about card use, but (as far as I can see - correct me if I'm wrong), everything seems to match.

Shadoweh's claims (from day 3)

Of the uncertains-but-probably-town, I really don't think kilg is viably scum independent of role, but both multivoters being scum also seems like poor design. A successful double lynch executed by shadoweh will make me highly confident about the town-ness of that slot, especially given the implications of the card come mylo.

Speaking of which, you seem to be implying that you would use the card prior to us getting the hammer, shadoweh. That's bad, we're not doing that. Your card will double-hammer.

Today with Dan's vote locked I plan to use my 5-vote spellcard on one person so we have enough votes to put two wagons at L-1 and allow Kilga to hammer both of them, not the dual-vote that 3-votes two wagons. I know how wagons work, geez. They're two seperate spellcards. When I said we should double-lynch every day, I said that knowing I could make it happen at least once on my own and once with any other person.

Kilga, for serious, other then his role why do you think Rylai is town? I won't bother to study him closely if you're 100% opposed to it but I'd like a reason besides his power being supertown.

For anti-oobas: I think there's some weird confusion about what he claimed, Day 1 he made clear he was investigative-immune. If he roleblocks investigators do you think it makes sense to claim that rather then letting people fail on him without knowing why, from a scum perspective? I personally don't think it Makes Sense As Scum(tm)

Katsuki: Since you want to take the otheer front-runner out of the competition, who are the two people you would consider for quad-voting right now besides Dan? I don't really care about who got targetted with what, I'm not really sure what you want in this game besides to hate Sky Paladin for being bad-town and to tell people how dumb they are for thinking your scumgame looks like this(A sentiment I understand admittedly)

Also Mala should maybe uhhh post a content post? I really thought one would have happened by now and I'm very emotionally volatile and prone to listening to people like pie when they're being emotional too. It would make me feel guilty to lynch two people arguing for each other while the third real option is absent.

omg that's so poetic I think I have a song for it


By the way my only other ability is my cards don't work after Day 4. I think 3 scum is possible, if so that would make pie super scummy? There's a lot a LOT of death in this game.

I'm sure I probably missed important things here and there.

[fferyllt]

Shadoweh you said your cards go away after today. Is there anything you think you should use today?

[fferyllt]

Do you think your claim would shed light on any dark corners?

[fferyllt]

man I suck at consolidating info.

I blame the old rasputin.

[fferyllt]

I'm getting antsy.

I'd like to hear more from Shadoweh about her thoughts today. I'd like for pieguy to get around to whatever he's getting around to. I'd like for kagami to do something I'd unequivocally townread.

p-edit katsuki I'm curious why, with all the confirmed town/near-confirmed town sloshing around in the thread, you didn't use thye JK ability

[fferyllt]

:/

[fferyllt]

Shadoweh, do you think katsuki is scum?

Katsuki the only game I've played with you is the Disney Princess game. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=51520

It wasn't flawless.

[fferyllt]

Shadoweh, do you think katsuki is scum?

Katsuki the only game I've played with you is the Disney Princess game. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=51520

It wasn't flawless.

That game was flawless until my scumbuddy somehow got deadline lynched D2 was it? Then I followed due to PoE plus town had a shit ton of PRs against a single scum one-shot tracker. Town were on track to lose that game if not for deadline wagons switching from 3 town players onto my scumbuddy, neither of us were really suspected at all.

No, your partner was a heavy suspect for most players on day 2. Balance-wise you're right, though one of the prs was pretty much useless and you lolhammered the JK on day 1.

You have kagami as scum. Why?

[fferyllt]

Kagami*

Interesting.

[fferyllt]

I'd like to hear more from Shadoweh about her thoughts today. I'd like for pieguy to get around to whatever he's getting around to. I'd like for kagami to do something I'd unequivocally townread.

ironically, half of this was me thinking Kagami was scum

the question to Rylai was supposed to be indicative of that since Kagami-scum needs to mislynch all of Katsuki, Ank, Rylai in order to win. the tl;dr of it was I was very skeptical of her interactions with the scum team - she had distanced from all of the scum, but had done so in ways that didn't put them at much risk of being lynched - and I didn't like her push on Katsuki at all for a few reasons (some parts of it came off as forced). plus her claim is a lot more basic than every other role in the game - it appears to just be one spellcard that's a messenger that she can reuse, which is basically worthless - but I wanted to look all the claims over to make sure

I was still mulling it over bc she answered the question satisfactorily. the other half was the bit with Rylai's role making him town, which I was hiding bc I wanted to see what she'd come up with first.

Hey Pie. Didn't you have a Dayvig that hit people with little to no spellcards left? Did you not think confirming whether or not you could Dayvig Action Dan was a good idea?

wouldn't work. the dayvig works on people with 0-1 spellcards of any type, the "time bomb" only applies to day cards.

I feel like my role is fairly weak, but it still has a bunch of moving parts and fits into stuff other people have claimed. Especially Notsci. I'm wondering if other neighborhoods had that sort of synchronicity but I haven't gotten to the point of looking at the claime from that lens.

There's not much there for kagami's role to jigsaw-fit from what I can see.

[fferyllt]

if you have information, i don't really see why you're holding it back given kagami has already claimed the N3 action

I wasn't.
I simply didn't have it until now.

Because spring?

[fferyllt]

Rylai isn't dead...?

Please try again and check the names carefully. Or explain what I'm missing if possible.

you're missing humor.

[fferyllt]

sweet.

[fferyllt]

gif should I put in for night chat? Wait?

[fferyllt]

This thread will stay open on night 4 if I use it.

[fferyllt]

c

Did you claim this spellcard earlier?

[fferyllt]

Oh no private chat? Bio

I don't mind night talk.

I wish it was private chat!

Still, better than nothing.

[fferyllt]

Moon Sign "Silent Selene"

[fferyllt]

who is cm?

[fferyllt]

I'd like to see Rylai answer Katsuki's question before the game day ends.

[fferyllt]

good thing I'm not always nice

[fferyllt]

oh but I do express certain emotions about how some people play. Sometimes it's subtle. Sometimes it's not.

I guess you've missed most of the pyrotechnics.

[fferyllt]

katsuki I break out into hives when you do reach outs to me. I don't know why.

But, I'm really not seeing your scum game here so I dunno.

Kagami worries me.

[fferyllt]

I did?

I dunno. maybe I did. I was trying to develop a read.

[fferyllt]

Where are you Katsuki? Talk about your scumreads?

[fferyllt]

pretty sure katsuki was passed out. Not sure what your time zone is, but 2:30 am US Eastern time is usually not prime time for provoking lots of reactions.

[fferyllt]

1. You're advocating putting the jailkeep into his hands to do whatever the hell he wants with, which is strictly worse if he's scum. By forcing him to use it on me and have me confirm it, it removes his options if he's scum.
2. There's no evidence at all of a recurring block ability being in the game, and the game state with so many confirmed or probtown players makes having a hidden block very unlikely.
3. Your point about lynching being more likely to net scum or not is completely irrelevant. A lot of this game is virtually PoEable and removing one from the unconfirmed will lessen the scumpool regardless.
4. Rylai ninjalynching is awful for his alignment regardless of what it is because he'll be lynched tomorrow guaranteed if he does.
5. Saying that we'll lie if one of us is scum is nonsense. I can't lie about him targeting me because I will get lynched and lose. He can't NOT target me because he'll get lynched and lose. Lying if we're both scum is bad because the chances of us being PoEd out in the end is too high for it to be any use over confirming each other's actions.

Since we can't lynch rylai unless all the stars align and stuff, then who are you suggesting be lynched today?

[fferyllt]

1. You're advocating putting the jailkeep into his hands to do whatever the hell he wants with, which is strictly worse if he's scum. By forcing him to use it on me and have me confirm it, it removes his options if he's scum.
2. There's no evidence at all of a recurring block ability being in the game, and the game state with so many confirmed or probtown players makes having a hidden block very unlikely.
3. Your point about lynching being more likely to net scum or not is completely irrelevant. A lot of this game is virtually PoEable and removing one from the unconfirmed will lessen the scumpool regardless.
4. Rylai ninjalynching is awful for his alignment regardless of what it is because he'll be lynched tomorrow guaranteed if he does.
5. Saying that we'll lie if one of us is scum is nonsense. I can't lie about him targeting me because I will get lynched and lose. He can't NOT target me because he'll get lynched and lose. Lying if we're both scum is bad because the chances of us being PoEd out in the end is too high for it to be any use over confirming each other's actions.

Since we can't lynch rylai unless all the stars align and stuff, then who are you suggesting be lynched today?

I technically already answered this on the last page, but I'll put it here again so it's directly there.

Rylai > Katsuki > Sky_Paladin is my list.

So SkyPaladin then, by default?

I feel like the case for him being scum is pretty weak.

[fferyllt]

Huh?

Well, like I said, it would take an amazing concatenation of events to lynch rylai today, and you want to keep katsuki alive to jailkeep you.

So of your three, then it would seem that's who you'd want to lynch.

[fferyllt]

Kagami's town. That's a read I'd stake the game on.

How familiar with kagami are you?

I've played a few games with her, and there's stuff about her play that's bugging me this game.

[fferyllt]

Kagami's town. That's a read I'd stake the game on.

How familiar with kagami are you?

I've played a few games with her, and there's stuff about her play that's bugging me this game.

You, specifically, are likely to be bugged further.

Why?

[fferyllt]

ffery talk to me I don't want to spend too much time on MS tonight I still have other stuff to do.

katsuki I think you're probably getting lynched. :/

The only way I see that not happening is if gif, pie, maybe shadoweh and I wind up convinced someone else is scum and swing things elsewhere. In that event rylai will pretty much have to listen to town consensus. And if our consensus swings rylai's way, then who knows what he'll do.

I know that pieguy isn't confirmed town, but my sense is that we are an axis of sorts right now and the game spins around our thoughts today.

[fferyllt]

The only way I see that not happening is if gif, pie, maybe shadoweh and I wind up convinced someone else is scum and swing things elsewhere.

technically shadoweh could lynch someone by herself if she wanted

True. which is the stars aligned part of all this. she'd have to do that when rylai isn't watching for it like a hawk.

[fferyllt]

Your day card doen't target him does it? It targets you and gives you extra votes.

Maybe that is considered targeting the player you vote?

[fferyllt]

Did you see what the 3-vote card did? It does that, except on one person with 5 votes. I imagine since I have to put the other person's name when I do it that he wouldn't be affected. I supose it's possible it would work? I think it would be incredibly silly to do. He told us about it and activated it today in good faith, after the rolecop died. Do you think scum had a never-ending control the lynch card as well as an end the day card?

I'm paranoid about the possibility of scum having a never ending control the lynch card, but I don't think it's likely.

Town's pile of vig shots WAS limited. And town had take-away spellcard abilities which are also probably all used up.

So, yeah. paranoia. But I agree with you that he appears to have activated it in good faith.

Mostly, I'm entertaining Ank's arguments via argumentum ad absurdum. By his own logic, the only player he should be advocating we lynch today is SkyPaladin. And he's not really doing that.

[fferyllt]

If I'm getting lynched and you get NK'ed then this town needs a lot of help because SPderp is a trainwreck of a player,

This, and many other of your posts, look like character assassination. So, if it's not part of your scum play, I want you to stop it, right now.

It's typical of his town game. I went ballistic about it in the last game he and I played. Both he and the player he was pushing to be lynched turned out to be town.

[fferyllt]

stop copying me ffery

It's a shame we never hydra'd.

[fferyllt]

If I'm getting lynched and you get NK'ed then this town needs a lot of help because SPderp is a trainwreck of a player,

This, and many other of your posts, look like character assassination. So, if it's not part of your scum play, I want you to stop it, right now.

It's typical of his town game. I went ballistic about it in the last game he and I played. Both he and the player he was pushing to be lynched turned out to be town.

Which game was this? Most of my town games have been train-wrecks since coming out of retirement so you gotta remind me.

bork's ffx game.

[fferyllt]

i like sky - i just mentioned similarities to titus because sometimes he goes off on tangents that don't really make sense to me (or apparently anyone else) and he gets really fixated on certain things that seem like non-issues to me. though unlike titus, there's never any "well today i saw a dog when i was walking in the park so that must mean X is town, and if anyone disagrees with me they are just blatantly wrong - every other time i've seen a dog in the park i've been right about someone being town, there's like just no way i'm wrong this time".

This brings bitter tears to my eyes.

[fferyllt]

so did I.

so did pie.

now what?

[fferyllt]

Monster Sign "A Forgotten Umbrella's Night Train"

care to explain? or do we have to wait for the mod?

[fferyllt]

It's actually a surprise. Do you know flavor, ferry?

Not particularly.

[fferyllt]

That's it.

idgi

[fferyllt]

SP is town too.

AD clearly tried to kill him.

can you explain the bolded?

[fferyllt]

ok. when I read through that part earlier, I thought AD was playing the card then because of your cop result on AD and SB. but, I agree that even as a self-saving move, it's not likely he'd play that card before a teammate could extricate himself from the bomb.

[fferyllt]

How did I wind up dead on N3?

[fferyllt]

sky_paladin thought that SB got more info about his spellcards than was actually returned. SB learned how many spellcards a player currently had. Since SB didn't clarify that, neither did I.

Kagami what did the card you used today do?