Micro 130: Noughts & Crosses Mafia
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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Nah, Tic Tac Toe is a solved game which ends in a tie for optimal play. I really don't care for too much theory talk at this point, but the optimal play for town is that which leaves the smallest number of NK options with the largest number of lynch options.
Starting on a corner is mildly better in that respect.Wandering but not lost-
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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In post 47, Venrob wrote:I just looked at it, and if we have corner start we can win sooooo easily it is rediculous. Only problem is if we lynch Rondar we need to hope scum don't kill BB. VOTE: Rondar
What the hell is this post?Wandering but not lost-
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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Yeah. Chill guys
Whether Venrob's plan is scummy or not depends on whether we believe that he believed it might trick scum. Siv believes Venrob did, whereas I don't. We don't have conclusive evidence either way, so there's no way Siv is scummy for disagreeing.
I never said I have 'stronger' scumreads than Rondar. I don't like his jump onto the Siv wagon.Wandering but not lost-
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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I was bitching about site meta, how is that scummy? People use fakehammers so often, you hardly get a useful reaction, and when you do, most people I've seen do it are knee-deep in confirmation bias. I've seen few well-executed reaction tests so far.
If you're going to call me scum in association with Siv, you should probably wait for his flip before saying you'll lynch me tomorrow.Wandering but not lost-
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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If we're playing like last time, three-in-a-row trumps other wincons.@mod, right?
Lynching Blueberry would have been an awful idea, it would have given scum a full choice of kills.
I still think Rondar might be scum, but at this point his lynch also leaves scum too many options.
BB and Channel, and possibly Bitmap and sapo should be in the lynchpool for today.Wandering but not lost-
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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You seem to be a bit too confident in your scumhunting.
Why would it be relevant that it's QUICKER to lynch scum. Surely we should be concerned about actually winning, and unless we're certain about a scumread, lynching according to the grid gives us a better chance of that happening.Wandering but not lost-
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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What do you mean by it being a scumslip? I think it's definitely townie behavior to vote for a lynch that will lead to your own death. If he's gambling on the fact that BB will get himself out of this, that's one ballsy move by scum. I don't think scum-Bitmap would play badly enough to "accidently" cause his own death, if that's what you mean by scumslip.Wandering but not lost-
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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What are you talking about? I am center-right and I don't think I've been particularly subtle about the fact I'd prefer a BB lynch if we're lynching one of you.
Now that we're not at L-1, I think there are a few bits of theory I should post, as they can't really affect scum decision-making at this point. I'll post it from a neutral perspective because bias and stuff.
[theory]
Lynching Deli or BB is symmetric in the sense that if there's exactly one scum among {Mitillos, Rondar, serra} it'll come down to LyLo between the three of us.
The difference is, if Deli is scum with one of {Mitillos, Rondar, serra}, he wins by lynching BB today. The same goes for BB being scum and getting Deli lynched. The fact that Deli hasn't hammered means he's likely town. On that note, we shouldn't be putting anyone at L-1 anymore, but instead keep people at L-2 and wait for 2 Intents to Hammer.
Similarly, if two of {Mitillos, Rondar, serra} are scum, they could have forced a scum win by hammering BB.
If both scum are among {BB, Bitmap, Deli, sapo} town wins by lynching BB. (Insert: The fact that sapo doesn't want BB lynched suggests to me that sapo's scum.)
If the second scum is Bitmap or BB, town is good. Otherwise, it'll come down to a LyLo between Mitillos, Rondar and serra.
[/theory]
Just in case it comes down to that LyLo, I'd like everyone, particularly the next two people to die, to weigh in about whom they would vote out of the three of us.
I've already made it clear that I see Rondar as scummier than Mitillos.Wandering but not lost-
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That's almost right. There's one added step of complexity in that scum can achieve a majority win if we mislynch twice. Say we lynch you, then scum force-NK's sap. If you both flipped town, we must lynch Bitmap. If he is also town, we lose by majority, even if BB is scum. Vice versa, if we start by killing BB we can lose if you're scum with one of {Mitillos, Rondar, me}.
I am currently more confident in you being town than BB, so I'd also prefer the BB lynch.Wandering but not lost-
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Then your problem (assuming you're town) is the following:
If we lynch Bitmap, scum kills BB and tomorrow's lynch has to be me. Assuming we haven't lost by then, scum can choose a LyLo between 3 out of {Rondar, Mitillos, Deli, you}, which gives them more options than a BB lynch.Wandering but not lost-
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serrapaladin Jack of All Trades
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