Micro 276 Peek a Boo! Mafia GAME OVER

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Post Post #37 (isolation #0) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 8:31 am

Post by Majiffy »

34/ETL

I don't think the breaking strategy is going to work, but I don't think it'll hurt us, either.
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Post Post #40 (isolation #1) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 8:42 am

Post by Majiffy »

Yeah I just re-read through the setup information. It's
possible
you could "break" the game by numbers alone, but it's also
probable
you'll shoot yourself in the foot on your path to think-you're-heading-to-greatness.
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Post Post #43 (isolation #2) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 8:48 am

Post by Majiffy »

e.g. Lets say this is a 5 player game

Player 1 rolls 86%
Player 2 rolls 51%
Player 3 rolls 70%
Player 4 rolls 35%
Player 5 rolls 31%

Numbers alone tells us 4 and 5 are probably the policy lynches. However; now we have to randomize the playerlist, and THEN randomize numbers again to determine actual alignment.

Player 5 rolls first
Player 3 rolls next
Player 1
Player 4
Player 2

Player 5 rolls 36. Player 5 is now scum.
Player 3 rolls 33. Player 3 is now town.
Player 1 rolls 51. Player 1 is now town.
Player 4 rolls 50. Player 4 is now scum.
Player 2 is town because scum has been chosen.

In this hypothetical scenario, our assumption pans out. However, had any of players 1-3 rolled before 4 and 5, and then hit numbers above their %, they would be scum and we would be policy lynching townies for no reason other than a beat-the-odds strategy.

If you want to gamble, go to the casino. I'm going to scumhunt.
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Post Post #44 (isolation #3) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 8:49 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 42, Who wrote:Does "chance" refer to the probability of getting town/scum which they got in their alignment PM?
Go read the setup information, everything involving the alignment process is there.
In post 42, Who wrote: Yes, but we have nothing else to go on.
Maybe you should stop playing mafia, then.
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Post Post #47 (isolation #4) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 8:52 am

Post by Majiffy »

As far as "significant", I would assume {
% less than 50
and/or
alignment role in the first half of the randomized playerlist
} with preference given to those players that have both, and less preference to those that have neither.

Statistically speaking, those would be the most significant numbers concerning chances of having Player X or Y as a partner.
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Post Post #48 (isolation #5) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 8:52 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 46, Wisdom wrote:Majiffy, how exactly will you scumhunt when scum don't know they are scum?
Same way I always do, pinky. Thin the herd.
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Post Post #49 (isolation #6) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 8:54 am

Post by Majiffy »

Sorry, alignment *ROLL.
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Post Post #53 (isolation #7) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:05 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 51, Wisdom wrote:If anyone actually reads it, sure
It's ok, we'll just lynch you and Who if no one opens their PM.
In post 50, Jingle wrote:PEdit2: I want to be pinky Majiffy. Narf!
Image
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Post Post #56 (isolation #8) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:13 am

Post by Majiffy »

Love the image.

But in the future, please remember to rehost.
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Post Post #60 (isolation #9) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:19 am

Post by Majiffy »

VOTE: Majiffy

I support this movement.
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Post Post #61 (isolation #10) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:20 am

Post by Majiffy »

Oh wait lynching? I heard president.
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Post Post #63 (isolation #11) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:20 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 59, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:I actually kind of like the idea of lynching Who/Jingle for their low ass numbers. :mrgreen:
I thought my number was the lowest so far, but I haven't been paying much attention.
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Post Post #81 (isolation #12) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:45 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 65, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:How do you plan to play this game pre-role PM, Jiffy?
Lynch the people that I consider either incompetent or unable to sway to my every whim.
In post 70, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Jiffy got my name. If anything, I'm Jiffy's partner and we should uberbus him.
Shouldn't I be bussing
you
then? :?
In post 74, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:These are the people I want to lynch right now, because I don't know them, except for Nat, and I can't read any of them, so they are useless to me.

VOTE: Ganondorf
Uti is easy enough to read, Nati is actually decent as town, so those two should be kept around.

IDK who the fuck Ganon is, unless it's a Nacho hydra. Which it may be.
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Post Post #82 (isolation #13) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:46 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 79, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:No dude. He tried to take over the lesbian feminist ninjas and make them his slaves. And then he stole Zelda.
I, too, would like feminist lesbian ninja sex slaves.
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Post Post #84 (isolation #14) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:48 am

Post by Majiffy »

VOTE: Ganondorf
Chugga chugga chugga

CHOO CHOOOOOOO
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Post Post #86 (isolation #15) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:50 am

Post by Majiffy »

Natirasha
Ganondorf
Om of the Nom

These players have not posted.

According to the OP, 9/9 have confirmed.

y confirm no post
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Post Post #97 (isolation #16) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 10:45 am

Post by Majiffy »

Spoiler: And fuck you, you're not my real mom.
In post 95, NotJiffy wrote:
In post 88, Om of the Nom wrote:Anyway my percent was 99%, possible partner Majiffy.
Obv powerlynch the fuck out of Om because Majiffy is never scum.
In post 92, Om of the Nom wrote:
In post 90, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Stop making excuses and vote ganondorf.
I'm not voting anyone just yet but if I did vote someone it'd be Majiffy, sorry.
You suck, what with your logic and your ideas.
In post 96, NotJiffy wrote:
In post 94, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Om i dont care. Jiffy isnt getting lynched today. I can use his skillz.
Said every woman eve-
In post 93, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:me poe on others
I totally read this wrong.
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Post Post #99 (isolation #17) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 10:48 am

Post by Majiffy »

Works for Jiffy.
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Post Post #101 (isolation #18) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 10:49 am

Post by Majiffy »

Oh that's an apple.

I thought that was a crayon drawing of the Kool-Aid man amidst Christmas presents in your avatar.
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Post Post #104 (isolation #19) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 10:53 am

Post by Majiffy »

Stump
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Post Post #106 (isolation #20) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 10:57 am

Post by Majiffy »

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Post Post #112 (isolation #21) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 11:07 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 107, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:I know what it is but why did you post it
In post 103, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:submitting every night action i can think of.
^ I was getting a head-start.
(It was a joke)

In post 108, Jingle wrote:The way I see it we can take two approaches to today's play. Lynch people with low town probabilities or lynch people who are difficult to read/low expected value later.
So why aren't we policy lynching me again?

Oh right, because I fucking rock.
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Post Post #117 (isolation #22) » Sat Dec 14, 2013 11:22 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 115, Jingle wrote:I tried making a campaign for you before Jiffy, but your lack of campaign promises and bribery made it fall short. There's only so much I can do.
I always knew being the best possible politician would make me the worst politician...
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Post Post #225 (isolation #23) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:09 am

Post by Majiffy »

Watch Om.
No Result.
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Post Post #226 (isolation #24) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:12 am

Post by Majiffy »

I see no reason in the Who ISO that would lead to him being killed. No crumbs or softs, no heavy suspects.

This means either Who was killed because he was perceived as a threat by a member of the playerlist, or he was killed as a result of an Insane Doctor type (unlikely but possible).
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Post Post #228 (isolation #25) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:14 am

Post by Majiffy »

After three minutes of staring intently at the playerlist, I've decided NKA isn't helping me today.
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Post Post #229 (isolation #26) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:15 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 227, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Ugh!

When are the bonuses applied?
Start of each dayphase. Or at least that's what I gathered by "edits are out, results are out", edits being the changes to the role PM.
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Post Post #230 (isolation #27) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:15 am

Post by Majiffy »

Oh, it could also be a PGO I guess.
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Post Post #231 (isolation #28) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:16 am

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Considering he was a vig and all.
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Post Post #237 (isolation #29) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:24 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 234, Wisdom wrote:pedit: If Who tried to kill a PGO, the PGO would die too. If he targeted with something else, nothing would happen, therefore he wouldn't die. Therefore, no PGO.
Not all mods run their PGOs as dying after being targeted.
wiki wrote:Uncommonly, a Paranoid Gun Owner is also Bulletproof (they shoot first before they're shot).
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Post Post #238 (isolation #30) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:25 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 236, Wisdom wrote:Majiffy, how come you used "Watch" when we knew there's a miller? The sensible choice was "Investigate", or "Kill" if you thought you are scum. Why "watch"?
I like watcher and tracker roles better than cops.
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Post Post #241 (isolation #31) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:28 am

Post by Majiffy »

Also, not to toot my own horn but

Image

I was recently a fucking boss with watch/track actions.
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Post Post #243 (isolation #32) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:30 am

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Image
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Post Post #246 (isolation #33) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:44 am

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VOTE: Wisdom

Weak argument for voting Uci.
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Post Post #248 (isolation #34) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:47 am

Post by Majiffy »

And I should clarify that I think you're scum.
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Post Post #399 (isolation #35) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:27 pm

Post by Majiffy »

Good god, you fuckers post enough?

I'd say I'll read this tomorrow but I'm getting drunk tomorrow so no, that's not happening either.

Let me know if I missed anything important.
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Post Post #400 (isolation #36) » Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:27 pm

Post by Majiffy »

TOP O PAGE
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Post Post #403 (isolation #37) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:45 am

Post by Majiffy »

Had time to catch up before I depart for a day of binge drinking.


Wisdom your entire argument is "Ucitron is scum because prove me wrong"
And then when people offer arguments, you rebuke with "Nah"
You're a valid lynch for the day today on that alone.
In post 289, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Wisdom.... he was the first to post after the kill was posted.... and he posted everything. If anything, that means he is telling the truth. :neutral:
This is my feeling on the matter.
In post 304, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Why don't you want to vote om with me?
Why don't you vote Wisdom with me?
In post 312, Wisdom wrote:
In post 310, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Given uc's quick night action disclosure, I don't believe he shot anyone last night.
I don't understand this. Why wouldn't scum come in and post "hey guys I got "no result""?
In post 313, Wisdom wrote:uctriton, we have established one of us is lying. When I say "the lying one" I refer to the one who shot Who.
This isn't necessarily true. If scum had a high town % they may not have opened their PM yet, and as such, may have tried to investigate.

Of course, that would demand Om be the other scum.
In post 320, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:I'd be willing to lynch Om or Wisdom. And no one else today.
I agree with these.
In post 357, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Much stubborn. So observe.

LMAO
[SCUMHUNTING INTENSIFIES]

I used watch because I like to cast a large net in a micro. I picked Om because 99% town probability makes him an obvious night action choice.
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Post Post #405 (isolation #38) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:58 am

Post by Majiffy »

It disagrees with what you're saying because scum with a high town % wouldn't have submitted a kill, they would have submitted investigate. Leaving Om to be the obvious killer.

But your reading comprehension is apparently el pequeño.
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Post Post #407 (isolation #39) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:59 am

Post by Majiffy »

Aka there wouldn't be any liars, you're on a wild goosehunt, Nati isn't confirmed town, and you should be voting Om like ETL has been asking you to for about 5 pages.
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Post Post #408 (isolation #40) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:59 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 406, Wisdom wrote:Not quite. My argument is that scum would claim having done something that goes with the flow (investigate) rather than claim they tried to watch or kill Om.
And what arguments have I not discussed and have not tried to show why they're wrong?
You're misrepping.
Except you have no merit to make this claim because no scum (except possibly Om) knows they're scum. Ergo they have no motivation to lie about their night actions.
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Post Post #411 (isolation #41) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:01 am

Post by Majiffy »

My point isn't invalid. Look at the reasons Jingle submitted a kill. Does it make sense? Was it pro-town?

My answer to both of those questions are "no", and I suspect Jingle has been lying.
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Post Post #412 (isolation #42) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:02 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 410, Wisdom wrote:The shooter knows they're scum.
OH MY FUCKING GOD OF COURSE THEY DO.

YOU ARE A FUCKING RETARD

READ THE WORDS

I AM SAYING

YOU STUPID CUNT.
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Post Post #413 (isolation #43) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:02 am

Post by Majiffy »

asdfsdgsdfhjs
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Post Post #414 (isolation #44) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:02 am

Post by Majiffy »

Wisdom this is why everyone fucking lynches you in every goddamn game you play in.
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Post Post #416 (isolation #45) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:05 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 415, Wisdom wrote:Dude, seriously?

The shooter saw Who dying after they submitted a kill on Who.
Who flipped Vigilante meaning the shooter is not a Vigilante.
The shooter knows they are scum and have to lie about their action.

Which part do you not understand?
The part where you're instantly assuming it has to be someone who hasn't read their role PM yet.
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Post Post #418 (isolation #46) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:07 am

Post by Majiffy »

"I'm looking for a really fast car off the line that can hit 90 in less than 5 seconds"

"How about this Porsce?"


"Clearly the car I am looking for is a souped-up 90's Ford Coupe. I will look in this pile of 90's Ford Coupe to find the one that is souped-up"

"... Porsce?"


"Shut up, I am carefully looking at these Fords"

Wisdom, Car-Shopping.
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Post Post #419 (isolation #47) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:08 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 417, Wisdom wrote:That's not what I'm assuming, I just find it more likely than it being Om.
Why
.
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Post Post #421 (isolation #48) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:10 am

Post by Majiffy »

Wisdom, which do you think is the more likely scenario;

"I have looked at my role PM. I am a Scum Neighbor. I will kill someone, and then claim Neighbor at day start. Also, I will hide behind not doing a night action because I am a neighbor. What a great cover."

OR

"I have not looked at my role PM. I have a high percentage likelihood of being town. I will submit a kill, because lol, townies can kill now. Oh shit! I hit someone! I better claim to have used an investigative action on random player Y"

Seriously.
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Post Post #422 (isolation #49) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:11 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 420, Wisdom wrote:Your point is that nobody would ever try to submit a "Kill" action without reading their role pm?
My point is that it is neither pro-town nor logical to do so, so they shouldn't.
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Post Post #425 (isolation #50) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:14 am

Post by Majiffy »

:facepalm:

Seriously get the fuck out of this game. You have demonstrated a clear lack of reading comprehension, logical progression of thought, and now a complete inability to grasp simple setup mechanics.

You are by far the worst mafia player I have ever had the misfortune of playing with multiple times.

Good day, sir.
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Post Post #426 (isolation #51) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:15 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 424, Wisdom wrote:It's neither pro-town nor logical to use Watch when there's a dead Miller, but you did it anyway.
And we also have Jingle also trying to submit a kill.
So, what
should
happen is not necessarily what happens.
Explain to me why it is not pro-town or logical to use a watch with a dead miller, given what we know about this setup.
Explain to me why Jingle trying to submit a kill refutes my logic, rather than supports JingleScum.

Do you have inside knowledge of JingleTown?
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Post Post #427 (isolation #52) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:16 am

Post by Majiffy »

And beyond that, explain to me why a player acting illogically and anti-town refutes the argument that the action was anti-town and illogical.
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Post Post #429 (isolation #53) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:18 am

Post by Majiffy »

adsfdgh

I can't fucking even anymore.

Can we please policy lynch Wisdom?
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Post Post #435 (isolation #54) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:31 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 430, Wisdom wrote:Because a miller suggests the existence of a cop. The pro-town thing to do was investigate. One of us would get a result.
'Suggests'

We cannot rule out the possibility of the miller being added because of the
future existence
of a cop - knowing what we know about the setup - or a false positive for balancing purposes. Both of these are very plausible realities.

So, whereas a cop investigation is a very specific investigative report that could very well be spent on a dead player, I decided to use an investigative report that casts a wide net - watching - on a highly likely target - a 99% claimed town probability player.

This player is likely to be the target of doc protection, cop investigations, mafia kills, etc.

A watch is
the
most pro-town and logical move to make.


So you're wrong there, lets move on to where else you're wrong;
In post 430, Wisdom wrote: Jingle trying to submit a kill shows that there are people who thought "maybe I am scum, let's try killing" and submitted a kill. Which supports my logic.
Jingle trying to submit a kill shows that there are idiots who think "Hey you know I've got a good chance at being town but instead of doing anything that could possibly help me if I AM town, I am going to take an anti-town action, to see if I AM an anti-town role, so that my playstyle can thusly be negatively effected in the thread where players are actively looking for other players that know their alignment to be anti-town. This sounds like the most logical and sound action I could possibly take as either alignment!"
So if your logic is supported by this being a logical move, your argument supports my logic that you suck at this game.
In post 430, Wisdom wrote: I do know if Jingle is town but I don't think that the lying shooter would claim "I tried to shoot Om". And besides, the way he described his thought process looked genuine enough.
That still requires
more
players to take
actively
anti-wincon - not to mention incredibly stupid - actions.

It's a really poor position to take, given that we
know
there is a player who
read
their role PM and could very plausibly be scum.
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Post Post #436 (isolation #55) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:34 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 431, Wisdom wrote:
In post 427, Majiffy wrote:And beyond that, explain to me why a player acting illogically and anti-town refutes the argument that the action was anti-town and illogical.
That's not what I'm trying to refute. The action maybe was anti-town and illogical, the point is that it could still happen. You are assuming it didn't happen just because it was anti-town and illogical.
I'm assuming we shouldn't start there when we have better, more likely avenues to take.
In post 433, Wisdom wrote:Assume Om has a ridiculously low percentage (say 5%), which made him claim a ridiculously high one. Why look at his role PM (which means he won't be getting any bonuses) instead of just assuming he most likely is scum and try to shoot someone?
So he would know who his partner is, and
what
his partner is.

Also what power roles may be available to him.
In post 433, Wisdom wrote: Now assume the liar, someone other than Om, also has a low percentage and also fakeclaimed something relatively high. Instead of looking at their role PM (and stopping getting any bonuses), they assumed they are most likely scum and tried to shoot someone. When they saw they succeeded, they lied about their night action.

Which one makes the most sense?
Om being scum. It requires less conditionals to complete.
In post 434, Om of the Nom wrote:So has anybody used my actions today to determine my alignment or are we just going to go on WIFOM NKA?
We haven't actually gotten past anything other than Wisdom having his head shoved up his ass.

Do you have anything worthwhile to add, or should I move my vote to you?
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Post Post #441 (isolation #56) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:44 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 437, Wisdom wrote:How the fuck is watching a logical thing?
In post 435, Majiffy wrote:an investigative report that casts a wide net - watching - on a highly likely target - a 99% claimed town probability player.

This player is likely to be the target of doc protection, cop investigations, mafia kills, etc.
In post 437, Wisdom wrote:What did you have pointing in a watcher being included in the setup?
Oh, I don't know, maybe because POWER ROLES ARE BEING HANDED OUT LIKE CANDY. WATCHERS AND TRACKERS ARE THE NORM WITH POWER-HEAVY SETUPS.

Fucking moron.
In post 437, Wisdom wrote:Why would anyone think that they are a watcher?
Why would anyone assume they should play like scum when they have a better chance of winning
as either alignment
by playing assuming they are town?
In post 437, Wisdom wrote: You're completely unreasonable and lacking common sense, which means you are arguing just to argue. You know I'm right.
Yeah, that's totally it. You got me, Wisdom, you clever dog, you.
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Post Post #446 (isolation #57) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:49 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 438, Wisdom wrote:This is all irrelevant.
The point is one.
There are people who would submit a kill action, whether you find that logical or not.
Which means my theory is perfectly plausible.
Plausible, sure, but not the optimum direction to go in.

One does not assume that the night kill comes from a player who does not know their role is more likely to be scum submitting a kill (an illogical and anti-wincon action to take) when there is a player who has read their role PM and has an easy claim to cover behind.

WHICH IS MY FUCKING POINT.
In post 439, Wisdom wrote:
In post 435, Majiffy wrote:That still requires more players to take actively anti-wincon
How is it anti-wincon when they don't know their wincon? :lol:

Once again, why are you assuming that people have the percentages they claimed instead of low ones?
It doesn't matter what percentage they have.

Optimum strategy for scum in this game - and every other game - is to play like town, so as not to be caught by
scumhunting.

This is a setup where scum can
legitimately get away without having to know they are scum.

Knowing they are scum will taint their play, and enable them to more likely be caught by
scumhunting.

Ergo,
it is optimum strategy as scum to not try to figure out if you are scum, and just play as town.


And I shouldn't have to explain how playing to find out if you're scum is anti-town for a townie.
In post 440, Wisdom wrote:He didn't need to do that. Not when it would put him under suspicion AND stop him from receiving any bonuses. He could just guess or assume the one the mod gave him is most likely the partner.
Having a PR you know about (town doesn't know theirs) and knowing who your partner is (without having to worry about them trying to distance from you) are two very effective things to have in this particular setup.
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Post Post #447 (isolation #58) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:50 am

Post by Majiffy »

Oh my fucking god.
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Post Post #448 (isolation #59) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:51 am

Post by Majiffy »

Seriously, Wisdom? Seriously?
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Post Post #450 (isolation #60) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:53 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 440, Wisdom wrote:
In post 436, Majiffy wrote:So he would know who his partner is, and what his partner is.
He didn't need to do that. Not when it would put him under suspicion AND stop him from receiving any bonuses. He could just guess or assume the one the mod gave him is most likely the partner.
In post 444, Wisdom wrote: They actually have a better chance of winning if they learn they are scum and actually kill people.
Which is what was achieved.
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Post Post #452 (isolation #61) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:53 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 449, Om of the Nom wrote:You know what I'd laugh if Who tried to kill himself and succeeded.

But seriously you two need to stop arguing about whose logic is better and just accept that neither of you see the ideal options in the same way.
Vote Wisdom with me, because it's either him or you today.
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Post Post #454 (isolation #62) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:54 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 451, Wisdom wrote:
In post 446, Majiffy wrote:Ergo, it is optimum strategy as scum to not try to figure out if you are scum, and just play as town.
Not really. Killing people helps reaching your wincon if scum. You can't kill people if you don't try.
Town lynches someone every day. As long as you aren't lynched - by playing like town! - you can win without ever making a single kill.

I mean, it's not like setups exist that scum don't have nightkills in or anything. :roll: Wonder how scum teams ever win by not killing?
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Post Post #455 (isolation #63) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:55 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 453, Wisdom wrote:It's established that there is a liar among us, why do you not care at all to find who it is?
Because it's
not
established.

If Om submitted the kill, there could be
no
liar.
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Post Post #456 (isolation #64) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:55 am

Post by Majiffy »

You stupid fucking twit.
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Post Post #459 (isolation #65) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:56 am

Post by Majiffy »

Oh, that was directed towards Om.

Well, I suppose from HIS perspective there would have to be a liar, otherwise he would admit to being scum.

But Wisdom, you so dummy.
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Post Post #460 (isolation #66) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:57 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 457, Wisdom wrote:You are trying to argue that Om is more likely scum than anyone else - so why are you trying to lynch me over Om?
Because you're a gigantic fucking hindrance and I firmly believe in the power of a good policy lynch.

And there's always the possibility that you're still scum on top of it all.
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Post Post #464 (isolation #67) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:59 am

Post by Majiffy »

Adddasfsfh

Pick a fucking side of the argument Wisdom. You have now supported both sides of the scum reading/not reading their role PMs.
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Post Post #469 (isolation #68) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:10 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 466, Wisdom wrote:
In post 464, Majiffy wrote:Adddasfsfh

Pick a fucking side of the argument Wisdom. You have now supported both sides of the scum reading/not reading their role PMs.
Nope. My stance is that they wouldn't read it and just try and kill someone. Which is why I don't think it's Om.
And what if Om picked up his role PM and
was
scum? I mean, we already know he picked up his role PM. So there's that part. And he wouldn't know his alignment either way before picking it up, so you can't argue that picking up the PM is alignment-indicative...

You still have no argument against Om being the killer.
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Post Post #471 (isolation #69) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:17 am

Post by Majiffy »

@Mod What happens if two scum submit two different night kills? How do you determine prevalence?
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Post Post #473 (isolation #70) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:18 am

Post by Majiffy »

@Mod What happens if two scum submit two different night kills? How do you determine prevalence?


Turns out, it helps to put the closing part of a format tag in.
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Post Post #474 (isolation #71) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:19 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 472, Wisdom wrote:Majiffy, once again. My argument is that I think Om would NOT pick up his pm if he suspected he is scum. And not just Om. Anyone who suspected they are scum would not pick up their pm. They would try to shoot someone. Picking up the pm has TWO negative things happening - 1) Stop bonuses coming and 2) Making them be the center of attention and draw everyone's suspicion.
But what if he picked up his PM and
WAS SCUM ANYWAY?


Why do you ignore this possibility?
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Post Post #475 (isolation #72) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:19 am

Post by Majiffy »

Also I've given arguments for why picking up the PM if you suspect you are scum can be considered a good move despite the end of bonuses.

Picking up the role PM isn't alignment-indicative, so saying that they'll be drawing everyone's suspicion is silly.
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Post Post #479 (isolation #73) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:22 am

Post by Majiffy »

:facepalm:
Ok well whatever you say Wisdom.

I guess if we're just going to argue over opinions there's no point in playing. I'm going to the bar now.
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Post Post #481 (isolation #74) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:25 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 477, Om of the Nom wrote:
In post 469, Majiffy wrote:You still have no argument against Om being the killer.
Is there even an argument for me being the killer?
We (ETL and I) don't think it's likely scum was just blindly shooting instead of playing pro-town, which means scum probably knew they were scum before the night ended. Which would leave just you, having picked up your role PM.
Wisdom wrote: Do you disagree that everyone's attention is on Om because he did that? Would anyone care about him had he not read his role PM?
I do disagree that everyone's attention is on Om because he picked up his role PM. I think the reason everyone's attention is on him is because of his lack of a night action, his Neighbor claim which is not alignment indicative either way, and the happening of a night kill on a dead vig.
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Post Post #483 (isolation #75) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:26 am

Post by Majiffy »

For example; had there been no kill, and he had claimed something like gunsmith, he probably wouldn't have anyone looking at him.
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Post Post #484 (isolation #76) » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:27 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 482, Om of the Nom wrote:I'm just mad that nobody is crediting me for correctly predicting the fact that potentially fatal night actions would be used against me (which is why I read my role PM in the first place).
I don't understand your circular logic.

Night actions point to the person who knew their alignment -> I picked up my role PM to stop night actions from pointing at me

??
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Post Post #505 (isolation #77) » Thu Dec 19, 2013 8:55 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 485, Om of the Nom wrote:You don't think it's likely but Jingle did exactly the same thing except they weren't successful.
Unlikely =/= Impossible
Also, we don't know for certain if Jingle was or was not successful, frankly.
In post 485, Om of the Nom wrote:PEDIT: No I didn't want to die without having used a potentially good PR that may have been in my posession. I didn't want to take a shot in the dark and end up failing big time, I wanted to know for sure what I was so that I could use it to the best of my ability before I died.
How does that have anything to do with "fatal night actions" pointing at you, and how was picking up your role PM supposed to counteract that?
In post 486, Wisdom wrote:
In post 481, Majiffy wrote:I do disagree that everyone's attention is on Om because he picked up his role PM. I think the reason everyone's attention is on him is because of his lack of a night action, his Neighbor claim which is not alignment indicative either way, and the happening of a night kill on a dead vig.
Would he claim neighbor/no action had he not read his role PM?
...No? Why would he?

You're trailing close to pulling a very fallacious argument.
In post 492, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Scumhunting is about finding the differences in people's play. While everyone may have a different playstyle, the difference is motivation. In this setup, we don't have that. You can't argue about a person's motivation until after they have the opportunity to even have that motivation.

The person with motivation is the one who shot successfully.

Om, for you to say that you think I am lying "because gut" is as bad as if I tried to lynch you yesterday "because gut". I didn't because there was no other evidence to support my gut. Today, we have evidence and I believe it fits you.
There is another way to scumhunt in this game but I think we shot ourselves in the foot by claiming all our town prob. %'s as far as doing it that way.
In post 498, MafiaSSK wrote:
Just as if two different members submitted two different kills in a QT, the latter action will be the one that is given prevalence.
Danke.
In post 499, Jingle wrote: Thank you for assuming I'm stupid though.
... But you are.

Observe;

Town wins by lynching scum. If all townies could avoid being lynched by way of being obvtown, town would automatically win in this setup.
Because of this, it makes the most sense for a townie to play as obvtown as possible.
Ergo, playing in a pro-town fashion is the best way for a town-aligned player in this setup to achieve their wincon.

Scum wins by outnumbering town. If all scum can avoid being lynched by way of appearing obvtown, scum would automatically win in this setup.
Because of this, it makes the most sense for a scum to play as obvtown as possible.
Ergo, playing in a pro-town fashion is the best way for a scum-aligned player in this setup to achieve their wincon.

As we have the same conclusion regardless of alignment, we now know that optimum strategy is not alignment-dependent and as such, determining your alignment is relatively unimportant towards achieving your wincon.

As such, it is not necessary to check your role PM as either alignment and still manage to pull off a win.
In post 499, Jingle wrote:The reason scumkills are more threatening than lynches are because they're directed. With Om the only one who knows his alignment, there are decent odds that scum-actions aren't directed.
Explain. I don't see any evidence or logic to support this.
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Post Post #506 (isolation #78) » Thu Dec 19, 2013 8:56 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 504, Jingle wrote:Unless it is Om, those kills will be basically random, thus have a decent shot at hitting their scumbuddy. I'm fine with that, as it is almost as likely to hit scum as a lynch right now. The wrinkle in this plan is other people looking at their roles. If I had been more sure of my towniness, I would have put this forward yesterday.
That's a big "unless".
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Post Post #508 (isolation #79) » Thu Dec 19, 2013 8:57 am

Post by Majiffy »

Also, according to mechanics SSK just confirmed, you could still be scum, as long as your scumbuddy submitted the kill choice
after
you submitted your kill action on whomever it was.
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Post Post #511 (isolation #80) » Thu Dec 19, 2013 9:01 am

Post by Majiffy »

There's also a number of other possibilities that prevent the "can I submit a kill?" action to being accurate proof of alignment in this setup.

Not really worth getting into them all, unless you've got severe brain trauma and can't work them out on your own.

Sooo yeah.
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Post Post #512 (isolation #81) » Thu Dec 19, 2013 9:01 am

Post by Majiffy »

So as per usual, we're back to Majiffy being right and you should help me policy lynch Wisdom.
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Post Post #516 (isolation #82) » Thu Dec 19, 2013 9:08 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 515, Wisdom wrote:
In post 505, Majiffy wrote:...No? Why would he?
Therefore you agree that his reading his role PM is what resulted in the attention he got.
:facepalm:
In post 513, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:You shouldn't call jingle stupid though ... or anyone really >:(

He is my favorite newbie; don't call him stupid.
I'm going to continue calling stupid, stupid. It usually gets stupid's attention, and sometimes stupid becomes less stupid because of it.
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Post Post #604 (isolation #83) » Tue Dec 24, 2013 2:11 am

Post by Majiffy »

Oh good I'm not the only one who hasn't yet.
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Post Post #606 (isolation #84) » Tue Dec 24, 2013 2:31 am

Post by Majiffy »

Caught up.
In post 602, Natirasha wrote:Wisdom or me, I'd say.
Chortle.

Wisdom's actions ITT is why I wanted him lynched yesterday.
No Lynch was fucking dumb.
Idea to massclaim today is also fucking dumb.
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Post Post #607 (isolation #85) » Tue Dec 24, 2013 2:33 am

Post by Majiffy »

I tracked Om last night to see if he'd be the killing role. No result.

Town-aligned neighbor with a one-shot investigate on my neighbor at any time (submitting right after this post).

I can also PM a player and their abilities will be mod-confirmed to me in PM.
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Post Post #608 (isolation #86) » Tue Dec 24, 2013 2:34 am

Post by Majiffy »

Read it wrong, I will be told *one* of their abilities.
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Post Post #609 (isolation #87) » Tue Dec 24, 2013 2:35 am

Post by Majiffy »

And I submitted Wisdom so we'll see what pops up, now won't we?
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Post Post #619 (isolation #88) » Tue Dec 24, 2013 9:57 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 610, Jingle wrote:Care to explain why?
Explain why about what, exactly?
In post 611, Jingle wrote:Any thoughts on who I should give my gifts to Jiffy?
No. Fruit Vendors are dumb, and there's nothing alignment-confirming about it. Do what you want.

Results;
Om is town.
Wisdom has a following ability.

Aka nothing of any real value was discerned, except now I know I can talk freely with Om in the QT.

So I'm off to do that.
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Post Post #629 (isolation #89) » Tue Dec 24, 2013 7:38 pm

Post by Majiffy »

Here we go with yet another dumb no lynch because we didn't lynch yesterday.

VOTE: NL
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Post Post #646 (isolation #90) » Thu Dec 26, 2013 7:13 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 632, Jingle wrote:I'm interested as to why Jiffy thinks yesterday's No Lynch was a bad move, but we've kind of committed to that course of action.
Because we should have used our lynch.

On Wisdom.

Also NLs are, typically, dumb by nature.
In post 640, Natirasha wrote:Majiffy+ucitron is where I'm heading right now sorta.

Why would he role cop you and not him?
I don't know, maybe because Wisdom is my biggest FOS.

Might be a thought.

Herp a fucking derp.
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Post Post #648 (isolation #91) » Thu Dec 26, 2013 7:41 am

Post by Majiffy »

Yeah but now that we don't have mislynches I have to change your classification.
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Post Post #650 (isolation #92) » Thu Dec 26, 2013 9:58 am

Post by Majiffy »

Om and I are discussing.

We're particularly interested in poking and prodding the Jingleberry.
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Post Post #654 (isolation #93) » Thu Dec 26, 2013 11:44 am

Post by Majiffy »

I'm not sure that's quite how it works.
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Post Post #658 (isolation #94) » Thu Dec 26, 2013 11:57 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 655, Jingle wrote:I feel that someone who was scum would be less likely to read through all plans and weigh the consequences than someone who was unsure.
Your feels are wrong.

(I didn't read shit)
In post 657, Jingle wrote:Anything you want to ask me, Jiffy? This poking and prodding session of yours is really boring.
Om isn't online as far as I can tell, so no, not yet.
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Post Post #661 (isolation #95) » Thu Dec 26, 2013 12:28 pm

Post by Majiffy »

Yes, he did, actually.

Om, QT.
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Post Post #663 (isolation #96) » Thu Dec 26, 2013 12:33 pm

Post by Majiffy »

If I was scum, I would have just claimed a guilty report (tracker, or alignment cop) on Om by now and won by mislynch.

But that's probably beyond you.
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Post Post #672 (isolation #97) » Fri Dec 27, 2013 9:03 am

Post by Majiffy »

What are we doing now? Twiddling thumbs?
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Post Post #679 (isolation #98) » Sat Dec 28, 2013 7:03 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 674, Jingle wrote:Apparently the neighborhood is very silent.
Last post was on the 26th.
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Post Post #685 (isolation #99) » Sun Dec 29, 2013 6:45 am

Post by Majiffy »

Om and I are in agreeance that it's probably Nati and Ucitron.
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Post Post #696 (isolation #100) » Sun Dec 29, 2013 9:12 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 692, Jingle wrote:Nati I'm in accordance with. Is uci POE? Cause I haven't ruled out Wisdom.
Nati for a visible lack of scumhunting drive/direction since reading his role PM.
Uci for having so many bulletproof bonuses with confirmed dead town vig and town commuter.
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Post Post #698 (isolation #101) » Sun Dec 29, 2013 11:33 am

Post by Majiffy »

What are your reasons for thinking I'm scum, Nati?
What are your reasons for thinking Ucitron is scum?
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Post Post #700 (isolation #102) » Sun Dec 29, 2013 1:42 pm

Post by Majiffy »

Yeah we can start by lynching Nati.
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Post Post #703 (isolation #103) » Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:57 am

Post by Majiffy »

Downthrowing activated.
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Post Post #721 (isolation #104) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 12:42 am

Post by Majiffy »

Prods on New Years? How unheard of.

If we're not NLing my vote is moving immediately to Nati fyi.
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Post Post #723 (isolation #105) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:36 am

Post by Majiffy »

Probably because he doesn't think he can push my lynch through.
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Post Post #727 (isolation #106) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 10:41 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 725, Wisdom wrote:Ok, why is majiffy scum again?
He doesn't know.
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Post Post #729 (isolation #107) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 10:53 am

Post by Majiffy »

(He's falling back on what he thinks sounds good because he doesn't actually have any genuine reasons for his read)

(Pssst, don't let town know or they might lynch him and then find his buddy)
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Post Post #731 (isolation #108) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:00 am

Post by Majiffy »

Righteo boss, righteo.

Can we lynch Nati now or are we doing this NL thing?
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Post Post #734 (isolation #109) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:16 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 732, Wisdom wrote:
In post 696, Majiffy wrote:Nati for a visible lack of scumhunting drive/direction since reading his role PM.
Your reason for him being scum is actually worse than his one for you.
Uh... Why for?

Is it that you disagree with the statement, or that you disagree that it is alignment-indicative?
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Post Post #736 (isolation #110) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:30 am

Post by Majiffy »

But the problem is the marked switch in his play before and after, which I believe is
distinctly
alignment-indicative.

In his ISO you'll note he was pushing and leading a lot of this game, and then as soon as he read his role PM (a PR, mind you, which should increase this behavior) he suddenly switched to sitting back and just going "lol what do you think, wisdom?"
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Post Post #738 (isolation #111) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:40 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 145, Natirasha wrote:If were going about this logically, we should lynch starting with jiffy, then me, then down.
In post 168, Natirasha wrote:I don't think Wake could fake miller with the timestamps the way they were. For all his wackiness, I don't think he can play Speed Chess like that.
In post 186, Natirasha wrote:Om, why did you read your role PM last night?
In post 258, Natirasha wrote:Hmm I think this is between Om and jiffy for me. If we lynch jiffy, barring a mass opening we should lynch me tomorrow.

Om's number is the sketchiest, IMO, but I dunno. I find it a possibility he opened his role PM last night because he had a low number and wanted to know what to do.
In post 268, Natirasha wrote:If you're going after jiffy wisdom, just say its because he has the lowest %.
He does a lot of pushing and active scumhunting.
All of this attitude disappears after he reads his role PM.
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Post Post #740 (isolation #112) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:45 am

Post by Majiffy »

His neighborhood thing makes no sense and is a sloppy attempt to make a weak argument appear stronger by throwing bullshit possibilities and hoping one will stick with you.

There has been no legitimate attempt at scumhunting since he read his role PM.
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Post Post #743 (isolation #113) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:50 am

Post by Majiffy »

Those aren't scumhunting and pushing, those are soft attempts to discredit me and test the waters on my lynch.
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Post Post #744 (isolation #114) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:51 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 742, Wisdom wrote:
In post 740, Majiffy wrote:There has been no legitimate attempt at scumhunting since he read his role PM.
There has been no attempt at scumhunting by Om, you or uctriton either. I guess you are all scum.
You are hands-down a fucking moron.
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Post Post #746 (isolation #115) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:55 am

Post by Majiffy »

I've been known, from time to time, to nail both members of a scumteam in a game this small on D1.
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Post Post #748 (isolation #116) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:56 am

Post by Majiffy »

Wisdom, this is the shit that makes me want to policy lynch you in games. You're a fucking retard when you get to endgame and it always ends in you fucking town in the ass.
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Post Post #749 (isolation #117) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:57 am

Post by Majiffy »

If you're going to be a blind tard then be a blind tard, I'm done talking to you.
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Post Post #752 (isolation #118) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 11:59 am

Post by Majiffy »

Whatever you say, Wisdom.
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Post Post #754 (isolation #119) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 12:04 pm

Post by Majiffy »

Go die in a fire, moron.
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Post Post #758 (isolation #120) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 12:14 pm

Post by Majiffy »

Idk, been a while since I've been town in a game this small.

But yeah, I'm pretty confident in my endgame choices.
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Post Post #763 (isolation #121) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 12:32 pm

Post by Majiffy »

In post 761, Wisdom wrote:I think it's pretty clear, Om. Majiffy is scum tunneling on Nati and doesn't get paranoid that I might be scum anymore, like he would as town.
I think it's pretty clear, Wisdom.

You're a retard.
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Post Post #776 (isolation #122) » Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:24 pm

Post by Majiffy »

VOTE: Nati

Since apparently this is a thing.
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Post Post #803 (isolation #123) » Fri Jan 03, 2014 7:35 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 801, Natirasha wrote:My whole case against me appears to be...I lurked?
Lol

Can we just lynch this already?
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Post Post #807 (isolation #124) » Sat Jan 04, 2014 9:43 am

Post by Majiffy »

Da da bada da.
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Post Post #814 (isolation #125) » Sat Jan 04, 2014 1:45 pm

Post by Majiffy »

Or we could just lynch Nati and then we'd have a bit of an overwhelming majority going into the next dayphase.
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Post Post #825 (isolation #126) » Tue Jan 07, 2014 9:16 am

Post by Majiffy »

I also got no results, which confuses the shit out of me, considering I never submitted anything as far as I can remember.
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Post Post #828 (isolation #127) » Tue Jan 07, 2014 9:38 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 827, Jingle wrote:I see no way other than insane human error that lets this game end in a scumwin.
Guessing this is a typo.

Anyway, I'm inclined to start with Wisdom, but I want to talk to Om in the QT a bit first.
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Post Post #832 (isolation #128) » Tue Jan 07, 2014 10:13 am

Post by Majiffy »

Ohmylanta.
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Post Post #833 (isolation #129) » Tue Jan 07, 2014 10:13 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 831, Wisdom wrote:Even if Majiffy and Om's apathy made me paranoid yesterday, I am very happy with myself for figuring it's uctriton when I did.
Yeah it was a real tough call, what with the Nati-scumflip leaving it pretty much between you two.
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Post Post #835 (isolation #130) » Tue Jan 07, 2014 10:24 am

Post by Majiffy »

Ah, right, the beginning of D2. That's where you were calling me scum for watching Om instead of trying to uselessly cop people.
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Post Post #836 (isolation #131) » Tue Jan 07, 2014 10:26 am

Post by Majiffy »

;)
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Post Post #840 (isolation #132) » Tue Jan 07, 2014 10:36 am

Post by Majiffy »

Yep. Good game.

VOTE: Uci
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Post Post #852 (isolation #133) » Tue Jan 07, 2014 11:30 am

Post by Majiffy »

Honestly I agree with Wisdom. I don't think Jingle was too heavily of the opinion Nati was going to flip scum like we were.
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Post Post #876 (isolation #134) » Tue Jan 07, 2014 1:50 pm

Post by Majiffy »

In post 859, Drunken Lies wrote:
In post 857, uctriton00 wrote:Or will you never believe anyone because it goes against your own belief?
Wisdom doesn't believe anyone until he has hammered his interrogation home to the point where he has no doubt one way or the other. :mrgreen:
You know, Wisdom and I should hydra sometime and everyone else will replace out by the end of day 1.
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Post Post #878 (isolation #135) » Tue Jan 07, 2014 2:08 pm

Post by Majiffy »

We could call it "The Gamekiller"
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Post Post #879 (isolation #136) » Tue Jan 07, 2014 2:17 pm

Post by Majiffy »

Image
You know you like it, Wisdom.
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Post Post #882 (isolation #137) » Wed Jan 08, 2014 1:06 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 880, Jingle wrote:Also, Jiffy, if you and wisdom make that hydra and convince mastin to join in on that game, I promise to play and not replace out.
Mastin in-hydra or separate?
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