Newbie 656 Game Over!

[RandomGem]

Hi guys, I'm here, but have (somewhat) limited access until tomorrow.

Vote: ShadowLurker

for having the longest name, making voting for him/her the hardest and most annoying.

[RandomGem]

Okay, have access again... (not that it's made a difference so far)
Who are the IC's?
---
You can vote for yourself? Cool!

unvote, vote: RandomGem

He is

so

obviously scum.

[RandomGem]

It did appear to be 3 votes before the mod edited it, and Drifter was in red text...
---
Sorry, I always kinda space out of forum things and fall behind and have no clue what's happening. (Meaning that's happening right now.) Just a quick scan seems to indicate that there's definitely something to go on, so no more randomness.

unvote

I'll try to get back later, but I always have stuff to do...

[RandomGem]

As an addition to what I just said, yes, I check this topic, then either forget to respond or am too lazy to do it. And then I do it again...
Yes, it's not pro-town. Sorry.

[RandomGem]

I believe it's from the Princess Bride.

[RandomGem]

(Ugh, always forget something.)
No comments on my lurking?

[RandomGem]

Reread the thread...

I was just going by chapter 5 not being bolded in the first post >_> <_<

And he's still not bolded.

No comments on my lurking?

Yes: stop lurking
If you're not sure what to post, then: what are your thoughts on Drifter's bandwagon suggestion? And the subsequent backlash from lifeofpie and Sion? ShadowLurker's aggressive playing? And anything else that strikes you as noteworthy?

Aww, but lurking is soooo fun...
The bandwagon suggestion and the following bandwagon seemed only to be a joke to me, and not completely relevant and by no means any scumtell.

I started the bandwagon to try and get some reactions really, thought it could only help the townies, and to be fair it did get some varied reactions.

Oh wait, never mind. Apparently, it was done for a strategic reason.
This is similar to owsianko's apparently random vote on lifeofpie (post 23) that he backed down from and said was to test for a reaction (post 28). This backing down from what IMO should really be a random vote with even a little pressure is a bit suspicious to me.
---
As for ShadowLurker's aggressiveness, it seems fitting for an IC, but on the other hand, he seems to have missed certain things in the thread, so I do not believe it is quite fitting.

[RandomGem]

Random voting stage seems to be drawing to a close.

Yay.
I have a question - It seems to be the norm to reveal your opinions and suspicions of people; however, this could just tip scum off on what they are doing wrong, or can give them an easy target to kill. So why is it a good idea to do this?

[RandomGem]

Hi also Artem! Anything you want to say, or will you be a lurker like

some

people? *whistles and looks around*
Is a scumday the anniversary of the day you join the forum?
Anyway,

I say this, because my feeling is that most of you attacking Drifter are barking up the wrong tree. To me, his actions come off as newbie town more than they do scum.

I believe this too, and think his actions don't really indicate that he is scum, but on the other hand, it can't exactly be ignored because then if he was scum he would have a free ride for the whole game. Such is the game...

[RandomGem]

I'm not liking RandomGem's self-vote and then pointing finger on himself and going "Lurker". How is that pro-town, unless you're telling us that you're scum, in which case:

Vote: RandomGem

.

The vote on myself was just a joke vote. Note that I took it off when people started going after Drifter.
I can't exactly defend myself on the lurking, but note that I am posting now.

Finally, owsianko's vote on lifeofpie appears to be, as he said, aimed to get a reaction. When lifeofpie gave a joking reaction to a joke vote, owsianko unvoted. How is that scummy again and why are you trying to paint it scummy?

FoS: RandomGem, Fenchurch

Interesting how you took my vote to not be a joke and theirs to be a joke when I did the opposite. I was thinking that if it was a joke vote, then he wouldn't mind the joke OMGUS. But instead, he took off his vote, which to me made it not look like a joke vote and that he was trying to take pressure off himself.

Hmm. I think I'm going to

vote: Fenchurch

Uh.... why?

[RandomGem]

The point with owsianko's vote is that even though he

said

he was fishing for a reaction, I'm not completely sure if he was. To me, it seemed too early to be doing that.
For my self-vote, I wasn't trying to accomplish anything. That's why it's a joke. And isn't the way to deal with WIFOM to ignore it for a clearer argument?

[RandomGem]

@RandomGem: so, suppose your self-vote was a newbie doing the unusual move. What was the point of calling yourself out for lurking?

Meh. My defense is that I don't have one, since I didn't really have a reason to do it. (I did think I was lurking because I would read the post then not say anything because I had nothing to say, so then I admitted it.)

Upon chapter 5's explanation, I made a (very very) quick scan. Fenchurch, I have found a

random gem

avatar to comply with your wishes.
I've got stuff to say about your reasoning, but I think I'll wait for Fenchurch first.

[RandomGem]

Not saying this is what's happening in this situation, but the problem with answering for other players is giving them ideas, which they may sometimes happily adopt. As such, the behavior should be discouraged.

For example, if RandomGem didn't already state that his vote was a joke in 113, I could point out that lifeofpie gave him the idea in 117.

@RandomGem: so, suppose your self-vote was a newbie doing the unusual move. What was the point of calling yourself out for lurking?

Ah, point taken.

Where has Sion gone?

Where have our IC's (thinktank and ShadowLurker) gone? I thought Fenchurch was the IC until I looked back...

[RandomGem]

I don't like Artem's post 107, not only are four players FoSed, he mentions the cop which is fishing, and votes RandomGem for what I find to be a crappy reason considering RandomGem has made many other contributions and

it's obvious his self voting was just to stir up discussion in the early game.

Actually, I have to say that though I considered that my self voting might have been met with some reaction, I did it primarily as a joke inspired by the mod saying you could vote for yourself.

Okay, it turns out that holding off posting for a while did not cause me to have any sudden revelations about the game.

But when you stopped talking, everyone else did too.

And I'm sorry, since I know I've been criticised for directing the game, and for cluttering up the thread without adding much content. However, I can't imagine people volunteering the answers to these questions without me asking, so I hope it is understandable. And equally, I would be happy to answer any questions directed at me.

I think it's good that you're directing in game, in place of the typical role of the IC's (*ahem*). Unless, of course, you turn out to be scum, in which case it's very bad.

[RandomGem]

I also don't understand what you are referring to by RandomGem's "many other contributions". Looking over his posts, all I'm seeing are some questions, joke comments and a brief FoS of owsianko's vote/unvote and your aggressiveness. Then I come along and put some pressure on him so he's also got a few defense posts.

Actually, agreed...

He's done no scumhunting other than to call himself out for lurking. He's also one of the three currently not voting, the other two being a lurker/inactive player and a guy that agrees with everything you've said so far a 100%. RandomGem looks to me like a player who's just coasting along. Still think my reasons are crappy?

What's wrong with not voting? I'm not yet looking to see anyone lynched, and since the person with the most votes is Drifter, I wouldn't be putting pressure on him by voting him since he's already had 3 votes on him before.
Your objections against me are all on my playing

style

, and frankly, since this is my first game, I have no way to prove this and no real way to defend myself.
But fine, I'll start asking questions.

Drifter

, can you explain your post 142? Why with the sudden epiphany? How is suggesting that you should help your bandwagon attempting to buy townie points?

chapter 5

, you seem very intent on Fenchurch. What opinions do you have on the other players, myself included?

Sion

, where the heck are you? (Okay, useless question...)
---
I have to say that Drifter is getting more suspicious to me. Besides all the reasons already posted before, I noticed one small thing. In post 12, and post 37, he votes for thinktank in the structure of "vote thinktank", but in post 142, he switches to the word "lynch". Perhaps I'm finding something completely irrelevant, but what could cause a person to forget the proper voting syntax?

Oh, almost forgot. I'm gone on vacation from 8/10 to 8/14.

[RandomGem]

Regards to Drifter's early vanilla claim that had struck me as genuine -

is it possible that in the pre-game discussion, the second mafia player could have advised Drifter to claim vanilla if he was under pressure?

Would anyone who has played on the mafia side before be able to confirm if this is plausible?

Of course it's possible. I personally wouldn't claim at 3 votes, and if I was hypothetically scum, I wouldn't risk claiming a power role, and would claim townie instead. But now that I think about it, that's pretty much a useless claim. If I was at L-1 and pretty much going to be lynched, I would claim doc. I would hope for a counterclaim, because then my partner could kill him that night. This would only be a desperation/suicide move though, since it's pretty likely to fail.
---
Oh great. By typing that, I've opened up a whole world of WIFOM. And likely suspicion on me. Woot.

[RandomGem]

Back, everyone!
I can see that my predicting scum tactics was a bad idea, just like I thought it would be. (But I didn't want to erase it since I had spent so much time... ) At any rate, my analysis was more revealing what I personally would do, and not exactly a prediction of other people.
About Sion.... I'm willing to guess he's not coming back. Can we have a replacement for him yet?

[RandomGem]

*yawn*
The waiting continues?

[RandomGem]

As for my posting style having changed dramatically, lifeofpie, I can't say I'm aware of it myself, but I suppose that goes without saying. The only difference I can see is my change from commenting on other players behaviour, to defending my own

I agree with you here, Fenchurch, which is why I don't like lifeofpie's case. It's absurd to assume that such a shift in posting direction could be attributed to scum.

That said, I still think you're mafia.

I'd agree here too - Fenchurch's posts do in fact get longer after the pressure, but who wouldn't spend more time defending themselves?

[RandomGem]

Gah, so many different opinions on defensiveness...
Are these statements made as IC's or as players?

[RandomGem]

I think I'm going to put Drifter at L-2. Not only his "The mafia don't know if I'm a power-role" backtracking after claiming vanilla borders on fishing, his general unhelpfulness and lack of scumhunting rivals that of RandomGem.

That's hurtful.

[RandomGem]

Random hasn't been that bad...


Random at least seems to put in some readable, understandable comments.

Buddying up?

Mallick has replaced Sion. But I haven't seen him post. So I'm gonna vote for him.

Vote: Mallick

Unofficial

Vote Count as of Post 202

Drifter (3):

lifeofpie, ShadowLurker, Artem

thinktank (1):

Fenchurch

Fenchurch (1):

Chapter 5

lifeofpie (1):

Drifter

Mallick (1):

RandomGem

Not voting (2)

thinktank, Mallick

[RandomGem]

EBWOP: Silly me, that unofficial votecount goes to post 203.

[RandomGem]

Random hasn't been that bad...


Random at least seems to put in some readable, understandable comments.

Buddying up?

Not you too?! I am merely posting my own, not-so professional opinion. Shut up. Your posts suck, everything you post is scummy, (especially that votecount) and your grammer would kill your mother if she ever saw such filth.

Only kidding...

Mallick has replaced Sion. But I haven't seen him post. So I'm gonna vote for him.

Vote: Mallick

Um, why again? Since when is that a reason? We should only go after lurkers (we don't even know if he might be having computer problems) if we really have nothing else to go on.

I'm not trying to lynch him. I'm just trying to put some pressure on him to get him to post.

[RandomGem]

Sorry, still here...
All that summer work is now piling up in that last week, and it's quite busy. Plus, I feel I have not much to contribute, especially with the slowed down discussion.

[RandomGem]

Okay,

unvote Mallick/thegeckoj

. It was a useless vote that didn't work at all, but at least he got replaced.
To answer Fenchurch's question:
lifeofpie - Hmm. There was the joke bandwagon on Drifter, and then the buddying up... Meh. To me, it's not really that scummy.
chapter 5 - Went after Fenchurch, then later backed down. I don't remember much else. Yay for following your intuition, but hmm... possible distancing?
Drifter - At the risk of looking scummy, I'd be willing to hammer him. But I think it'd be better to wait for a replacement or at least discuss some more.
Fenchurch - Leading the town with her extra long posts... Seems townie, but there's the fact that if she's scum, thinking like that would kill us, so I keep a bit of suspicion.
Artem - Mean to me. I suppose I could have OMGUS suspicion for him, but nope... Null read.
thegeckoj - I'm suspicious of his predecessors for disappearing... Hmm.
IC's: This game has IC's? Well, I was kinda suspicious on one of them for defending me when I thought I shouldn't have been, which was kinda weird. I think it was thinktank, but since both of their avatars changed, I forgot. >.> Currently no real reads on either though.

All my suspicions are really neutral, but after a lynch and a night kill (or maybe not, who knows), the suspicions will be come more tangible.

Just to reiterate, I'm willing to hammer Drifter, but I'd like to wait first.

[RandomGem]

It's page 10 and you still haven't distinguished between us?

Got kinda lazy by the end of that post... Uh, I recognize 2 distinct entities between you two, and have trouble matching one to a name. 'Cause of those stupid avatars. Just like how Artem switched his... oh well, I'll catch it this time...

Uh, I think this discussion about Drifter could really use one thing. Drifter. But I'm assuming he's going to be replaced after the prod period ends...

[RandomGem]

Oh okay. Thanks!
And thinktank is the guy who like never ever votes?

[RandomGem]

Hmm... sorry for my thin posting amount... school is getting busy...

Uh, my only real comment is that thinktank's argument on Fenchurch is... one we've heard before already...

[RandomGem]

I will try to organize better, but I doubt that that's going to happen.
On another vein, why aren't some people voting?

Me because I'm mostly waiting for the replacement of Drifter, the main suspect of the town, to come...
I dunno. I refrain from posting 'cause I'd just make a null-post like this.

[RandomGem]

Hmm, just realized... the case against Drifter is based on his claims and asking for deadlines, neither of which a replacement would be able to explain. And, as seen by thegeckoj and Fenchurch's opposing views, there are several ways to look at Drifter's actions. Only Drifter can explain, and he's who-knows-where by now.
Something else we can examine is the fact that he's disappeared. I personally think it means that he's given up trying to convince town that he's not scum.
I was willing to hammer him, and I'm willing to put him at L-1 now.

vote: Drifter

@Fenchurch: About thegeckoj... I agree with that point, and how Drifter turns up if he is lynched will definitely make me reevaulate my suspicions. My pressure vote on him was just an ineffectual vote to get him to say something, since he had replaced but hadn't posted for a little while.
I also agree that more content from everyone would be good.

[RandomGem]

Unvote

Now that a replacement's finally here, I wouldn't want all that waiting to go to waste because of a quicklynch.

[RandomGem]

Petunho's case is very believable to me; I was juggling the exact same idea before Drifter had been replaced, but ended up going toward lynching Drifter. Now I'm reconsidering.

lifeofpie - Man with lazy attitude. Trying people to cast their votes which could be seen as trying to hurry the lynch without giving proper reason why they should do so. Not liking his playing style and he doesn't pop out very protown in my eye. Have to look more carefully his posts after this one. I have some hunch that there were something suspicious about his posts. Coming back to you later.

OMGUS!

Vote: Petunho

Wait...
Anyway, it's a contest between laziness and Real Life (TM) (I'm having difficulty beating the fourth boss), so... yeah.
Anyway, you should know that I can be tongue-in-cheek.

Okay, I can see that the vote could be unserious, but when we're already out of the random phase, that's not a great reason to give a vote. Also, when you're doing a supposedly unserious vote on the primary suspect, it could easily be a sneak vote onto a bandwagon on an innocent player.

@thegeckoj
I don't like the idea of rushing into the next day "purely in the name of fun." And you also can't be certain of Petunho's (or any other player's) alignment, unless of course you are scum.

[RandomGem]

i feel he has present a good case and know his mafia game well.

i still think he is just covering up he predecessor's blatantly scummy play with is own skill at the game. it is unfortunate that someone good replaced someone so bad but the fact remains that drifter gave up his position way too early.

I don't think one "gives away" a position in Mafia; I disagree with reasoning like "obvscum". Even if one types "I AM MAFIA" in-thread, this is not a complete sign of being scum (although it probably should/will end in lynch).

he definitely hit the nail on the head though. i do want to quickly lynch someone, that someone is petunho. i may have wanted more info and play a little more strategically earlier in the game but now i just want to move on. ON WITH THE LYNCH.

I will gladly start a lynch attempt.

Vote: thegeckoj

Your L-1 vote on Drifter was suspicious enough, (eh, I guess I made one too, so double standard here ), but actively pursuing a quicklynch is something I can't support. Although admittedly, I'm bored with this day too.

[RandomGem]

Okay.
Would you care to join one?
I am now able to sympathize with thegeckoj. This game is getting IMMENSELY boring.

[RandomGem]

Oops, I forgot to

Unvote

.
I can understand thegeckoj wanting to end the day early, since I am getting incredibly bored of this.

[RandomGem]

@Artem: I'm looking more at thinktank, for being a very not explaining anything sort of person... thegeckoj isn't as suspicious to me anymore now that I understand why he'd want to lynch Petunho even as town. And this seems to cycle through everyone, but Fenchurch is looking partially suspicious for reasons I can't really explain (intuition? I think probably just posting the most causes suspicion). It's more of an ineffectual suspicion, and I'm not planning to act upon it on day 1.

[RandomGem]

I would rather go with a lurker lynch. The risk-reward thing works better that way, since you aren't losing a very functional townie if you mislynch (or being forced to replace, which slows game down + we have so many replacements already...).

[RandomGem]

Both of those things are true. :/
I'm just going to go with thinktank. Like has been said already, he's unwilling to display his suspicions. I really want an end to this day. And he's lurking, so if he is town, we aren't really losing much in terms of towniness.

Vote: thinktank

[RandomGem]

I just went with thinktank because I think he is more suspicious than chapter 5 was. But this is probably because chapter 5 has barely posted.

I know this is a double standard, but I got suspicious of lifeofpie when he tried to divert the lurker bandwagon away from thinktank to chapter 5. (This because I don't find Petunho suspicious for the same thing...) Meh, just inuition and all that.

I guess I'm ok with either lynch.

[RandomGem]

Can we have a 72 hour time limit on this prod... I don't feel like waiting indefinitely.

[RandomGem]

This is getting way too slow, and my main worry is that a replacement will not help to speed things up much.
Think, I want to hear SOMETHING that shows you give a damn

(or maybe C5 posting something scummy).

by tomorrow or I think I will be in the mood to hammer.

Yes, that would be quite nice.

[RandomGem]

I just mean that mentioning that you want Chapter 5 to post something scummy is... funny? Like a ha-ha joke.

[RandomGem]

Thus marks the end of a 3 month experience... of Day 1. >.>
Oh, I get what you mean now...
*also crossing fingers*

[RandomGem]

Judging from Post 405's votecount, then Fenchurch's, then yours...
Yup, I'm pretty sure it's a lynch.
Sorry for being like thegeckoj, but HOORAY OH MY GOD THIS DAY IS FINALLY (almost) OVER!

[RandomGem]

VOICE OF MOD:

Mod has been prodded.

[/mod color]

[RandomGem]

I think it's lifeofpie. 'Nuff said?

Vote: lifeofpie

[RandomGem]

Well there was him trying to nudge us away from thinktank, and rather lynch Chapter 5 on very slim reasons. (

Mod: How is the replacement process for Chapter 5 going?

)
And also, he started this day with a post that just makes me really suspicious... like he's telling us what scum's thinking? And the surprise at thinktank's cardflip seems fake to me.

[RandomGem]

I am very convinced that lifeofpie is scum. His first post of this day especially caught my attention... like telling us what scum (he) thought for us?

[RandomGem]

Yeah, I've been here, but I was exceptionally busy last week. Good thing nothing really happened!

[RandomGem]

All I can say right now: OMG.
Not what I was expecting at all.
On the lynch, I mean.

The nightkill is an intelligent one, I believe that they are removing our ICs to make us with less support.

I know I've been bashing this first post of Day 2 already, but seriously, this just screams scum at me.

Perhaps it's just the commenting on scum's kill. Also, the "OMG" on the lynch cardflip also seems like a very transparent lie to me.

[RandomGem]

Well, I think I would be able to justify thegeckoj's actions, although obviously I want him to explain for himself rather than just steal my reasons.
As for the rest, I find I agree with you. (Uh oh?)

[RandomGem]

Hey guys, finally not busy.
Happy Thanksgiving!
To risk pulling another "lifeofpie," I was actually really surprised to see lifeofpie flip town. Sorry Kairyuu, no perfect win for you? As for Fenchurch dying, I expected that, and might even have been suspicious of her had she survived the night. Guess scum missed some chance at WIFOM?

If we do have a cop claim as you suggest, Kairyuu, then scum will know whether or not a doctor exists in this game... so basically if he knows there's no other doctor, he'll be able to fakeclaim... which isn't too good. But it'd still be a win, so I'm ok with that plan.

For today, I'm pretty suspicious of thegeckoj. I think reasons have been given before, and I don't want to repeat them...

[RandomGem]

Eh, we can think whatever we want about the nightkills really. I personally use them as a lot of my intuitive bases of suspicion.
At the risk of being hypocritical, 40% town lurk makes me sad.

[RandomGem]

Bored, so I'm computing probabilities for us! Yay!
(Streamlining work, ask if you really care.)
Since the first lynch was a mafia goon, we have a 1/3 chance that there is a mafia roleblocker, and a 2/3 chance that there are 2 mafia goons.
Because of the above probabilities and because the first nightkill was a townie, we have a 7/36 chance of no power roles, a 24/36=2/3 chance of 1 power role, and a 5/36 chance of 2 power roles.
Because of the above probabilities and a D2 vanilla lynch, we have a 21/91=3/13 chance of no power roles, a 60/91 chance of 1 power role, and a 10/91 chance of two power roles.
Finally, because of the vanilla N2 kill, we have a 7/25=28% chance of no power roles, a 16/25=64% chance of 1 power role (8/25=32% each for doc or cop), and a 2/25=8% chance of 2 power roles. This alters the probability of 1 mafia roleblocker to 9/25=36%, and the probability of 2 mafia goons to be 16/25=64%.
If you personally are a townie, then your observed probabilities are 7/20=35% of no power roles, 12/20=60% of 1 power role, and 1/20=5% of two power roles.
If you personally are a power role, then your observed probabilities are 4/5=80% chance of 1 power role (i.e., no other power role existing), and 1/5=20% chance of 2 power roles.
Won't run the scum calculations.

Yay for Bayes' theorem!

[RandomGem]

Having conversations with yourself? You must be your own scumbuddy, you piece of scum!

[RandomGem]

Hmm, I just realized I forgot to account for the probability of a doc protecting NK in my probabilities. Meh.

I think it'd be a big risk for scum to fakeclaim cop, but... doesn't really matter since thegeckoj is the only person left...