Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[ItalianoVD]

there can only be one
VOTE: rcenigma

Exactly. I’m first in the playerlist.
VOTE: Nosferatu

[ItalianoVD]

I know a few players in the playerlist (SJReaver, Frogsterking, & Walter)

I don’t know the others, but this is for everyone...

1. What is your mafia experience?
2. What is your play style strength(s)? Weakness(es)? Do you know?
3. In your opinion, what is the most important thing to look for while scumhunting? While townreading?

I’ll go first.

• - This is my 5th game game onsite, however, I have been playing the wolf/village variation of the game on a forum called WeBL since about 2006. I’m still learning how to play the game on this platform; trying to get the terms down and all that; still learning the roles and alignment s and slots and all that, so by mafia standards I’m still a noob.
  - I’d have to say my strength is the ability to townread players. Because of my overall experience I am right on village/town reads probably about 80-85% of the time all time. It’s obviously not that high on here, but still fairly high enough, I’d say about 55%. My weakness is scumhunting. A large part of this is my overthinking. Many times I’ve talked myself out of scumreads or finding wolves because of this. No matter how much I’ve tried to alleviate this flaw it keeps biting me in the butt, so I figured I’d focus on my strength and try to keep strengthening that.
  - I think looking for inconsistencies and either passiveness or aggressiveness given the context. When I townread, it’s mainly gut sometimes as I can’t point to something specific, but I’d say I look for a player being disagreeable and/or a player who has his own thoughts and mind and doesn’t go with the crowd.

Look forward to your answers.

[ItalianoVD]

Hey guys, I'm townie.

No hurt. Only love.

Also, I've retconned the previous events of this thread and am now the first.

VOTE: Italian Like the updated avatar.

Are ya now? Sup SJ. Yeah I do to, although Madara is my favorite character.

[ItalianoVD]

Hey guys, I'm townie.

No hurt. Only love.

Also, I've retconned the previous events of this thread and am now the first.

VOTE: Italian Like the updated avatar.

Are ya now? Sup SJ. Yeah I do to, although Madara is my favorite character.

[ItalianoVD]

I have no idea who Madara is.

Because of my overall experience I am right on village/town reads probably about 80-85% of the time all time

have u considered that village/town tends to be abt 80% of the playerlist

Lol, you’re right. It was a guesstimate.

[ItalianoVD]

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VOTE: Not_Mafia

Do it someone. Sheep him.

[ItalianoVD]

We don't know anything about the set-up?

No idea how many mafia there are, if there are more than two factions? No idea what roles people might have?

This is weird. I don't like it.

Yeah SJ, it’s an open setup, meaning the roles are not known.

[ItalianoVD]

Here's some better questions guys:

1) What do you like most about cinderblocks

2) What is your favorite concrete color mix?

3) When was the first time a cinder block changed your life?

4) What is the capital of Assyria?

5) Do you believe the Church and gospel of Jesus Christ have been restored through the Prophet Joseph Smith?

1. They’re there

2. Other than gray? Psshhh.

3. When I licked it.

4. Tell us, tell us.

5. Nope

[ItalianoVD]

I know a few players in the playerlist (SJReaver, Frogsterking, & Walter)

I don’t know the others, but this is for everyone...

1. What is your mafia experience?
2. What is your play style strength(s)? Weakness(es)? Do you know?
3. In your opinion, what is the most important thing to look for while scumhunting? While townreading?

I’ll go first.

• - This is my 5th game game onsite, however, I have been playing the wolf/village variation of the game on a forum called WeBL since about 2006. I’m still learning how to play the game on this platform; trying to get the terms down and all that; still learning the roles and alignment s and slots and all that, so by mafia standards I’m still a noob.
  - I’d have to say my strength is the ability to townread players. Because of my overall experience I am right on village/town reads probably about 80-85% of the time all time. It’s obviously not that high on here, but still fairly high enough, I’d say about 55%. My weakness is scumhunting. A large part of this is my overthinking. Many times I’ve talked myself out of scumreads or finding wolves because of this. No matter how much I’ve tried to alleviate this flaw it keeps biting me in the butt, so I figured I’d focus on my strength and try to keep strengthening that.
  - I think looking for inconsistencies and either passiveness or aggressiveness given the context. When I townread, it’s mainly gut sometimes as I can’t point to something specific, but I’d say I look for a player being disagreeable and/or a player who has his own thoughts and mind and doesn’t go with the crowd.

Look forward to your answers.

What is this, an interview?

Of course it is.

[ItalianoVD]

And I like the fact we are out of RVS. I don’t like Day 1’s anyway so the quicker we can get to actually scumhunting the better.

[ItalianoVD]

Would like to hear more from Banana other than

[ItalianoVD]

I’m out for tonight though. Will catch up and see what happening tomorrow.

[ItalianoVD]

After reading through up to page 4 again, what it looks like to me is we were out of RVS once callforjudgment made his serious vote. @ callforjudgment I know you said that we left RVS before you made your post/vote, but I didn’t find that. Can you point to where you saw it move out of RVS?

@SJReaver: Listen I’m not gonna waste time trying to prove to you that I’m town, but can you honestly say that all of your posts have added to the gamestate and have helped in finding scum?

If you’re town your tunneling doesn’t help, but if you’re scum, you picked the wrong person to target.

VOTE: Banana

Gotta say something better than bruh my dude. Even though we’ve all been “fluffing” it overall your posts have felt very apathetic.

[ItalianoVD]

After reading through up to page 4 again, what it looks like to me is we were out of RVS once callforjudgment made his serious vote. @ callforjudgment I know you said that we left RVS before you made your post/vote, but I didn’t find that. Can you point to where you saw it move out of RVS?

@SJReaver: Listen I’m not gonna waste time trying to prove to you that I’m town, but can you honestly say that all of your posts have added to the gamestate and have helped in finding scum?

If you’re town your tunneling doesn’t help, but if you’re scum, you picked the wrong person to target.

VOTE: Banana

Gotta say something better than bruh my dude. Even though we’ve all been “fluffing” it overall your posts have felt very apathetic.

Bruh

That actually made me laugh out loud. Honestly I don’t even know how to respond to that.

[ItalianoVD]

If your scum kudos, but I don’t think so. You’re a character for real, but I like it. I can’t feel my face when I’m with you.

UNVOTE: Banana

[ItalianoVD]

Literally everyone read you as town at the end of day 1. Your play was perfect. And now it's ass.

Still the beginning of Day 1, give it time.

[ItalianoVD]

Literally everyone read you as town at the end of day 1. Your play was perfect. And now it's ass.

Still the beginning of Day 1, give it time.

Is this your stance? Really? Mr. "say more than bruh!"

Yup.

[ItalianoVD]

I'm with it VOTE: SJReaper

Surely it couldn’t have been this easy?

[ItalianoVD]

The game isn't in the random voting stage as soon as there's something non-random to vote about. #31 appears to be the first post which contains a non-random (if weak) read, so it ended there.

Are you sure this is the post you meant to quote? This is not what you saying at all. A player is explaining something to another player. You wanna try again?

VOTE: BananaCucho
This is a stronger read than the read I had on RCEnigma. #107 and #109 (I haven't checked #108 because I have images turned off) are the sort of content that's a) easy to post as either alignment, and b) doesn't help solve the game at all as town.

This wouldn't be particularly scummy if it were posted together with more townish posts, but in isolation, it's pretty suspicious.

So what are you saying? Can you elaborate on the bolded?

(Also, I have a mild scum read on SJReaver from #115; people are way more likely to joke about being scum when they actually are scum.)

Really? How so?

[ItalianoVD]

I did mean #31. "Bad post".

Nah, I don’t think so. He never even pushed it...33 I think your post was the first post to push out of RVS.

Optimal strategy for scum would generally be to lurk (and thus give nothing away), except that intentionally lurking tends to look scummy in its own right. So the next best option, and one that happens ridiculously often in practice, is making posts that don't do or mean anything to make it look like you aren't lurking; you get the benefits of lurking and dodge some of the disadvantages.

Okay. And what about the other side of the coin? It’s not from scum but from the play style of said player?

I've been maintaining that this is a real tell for years (e.g. here). Actual results have been mixed; I've seen three joke scum claims, and one of them was from scum (from Firebringer here), but one of them was from Not_Mafia (for whom a scumclaim in the first post isn't alignment-indicative because he does it basically every game). So a 50% accuracy rate isn't that bad (given that only about a quarter of players are scum), although there isn't much data from my personal experience. (I can't remember where I first heard about the tell in question.)

I disagree. I’ve seen it happen more from villagers and village power role players than from scum, not to say scum doesn’t do it, but I’ve seen it more the other way. (not on this site, but the other site I am a part of).

But in this case of SJReaver, a newb: 1) Do you really feel she would be more likely to do it and 2) Do you think her scum team would comfortably allow her to do it?

[ItalianoVD]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Do it someone. Sheep him.

I just got reminded of this while ISOing N_M.

@ItalianoVD, are you townreading N_M?

I don’t know really. Not_mafia’s reputation precedes him from what I’ve hear. I really wanted to see who would jump on him. That no one did, I’m not sure what to think. Do you have a better read and/or feel of him?

[ItalianoVD]

@Frogsterking: I’m wondering why you’re so hostile towards Nosferatu? What say ye?

For now: VOTE: Frogsterking

[ItalianoVD]

But in this case of SJReaver, a newb: 1) Do you really feel she would be more likely to do it and 2) Do you think her scum team would comfortably allow her to do it?

"Allow" me to do it? Like I'm going to submit a permission slip to my scum-buddies before I can post.

Is that why you're so wooden this game? Did they give you a list of things to say/do? Weird, but good to know you're working together. Easier to pick up coordination.

Yes.

I know from the last game we played together that you have lockjaw lol, so as I said nothing I say or do will convince you otherwise, but just know I’m being 100% honest in my posts and you’ll eventually see that you are wrong about me.

[ItalianoVD]

If we eliminate you today and you flip green, I will totally read you as townie.

I love your logic.

[ItalianoVD]

I’m trying to understand the Walter wagon and I don’t.

[ItalianoVD]

...and I don't believe nos/frog to be partners.

Why not? Could you be wrong there?

[ItalianoVD]

he posted too many questions its not that deep

Oh I see so nothing.

[ItalianoVD]

...and I don't believe nos/frog to be partners.

Why not? Could you be wrong there?

I could be wrong about everything I've said here. But it would be silly of me to think I am.

Aight. I get you.

[ItalianoVD]

Also odd that Foster should be upset with active lurking given they have one of the lowest post counts.

Not really. Active lurking and low post count don't have much in common. Ripped straight from the Mafiascum wiki:
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ve_Lurking

"Active Lurking, also referred to as Fluffposting or Fillering, is the act of posting (thus differentiating it from ordinary Lurking), but the material posted is irrelevant or otherwise useless for scumhunting.

Examples of active lurking include posts made only of taunts, excuses for not posting, incoherent gibberish that will lead people to suspect that you do not have the Internet savvy to play Mafia, general bland agreement with whatever is going on, prod dodges, and so forth. For the less couth readers, this is frequently called "bullshitting" in MeatWorld.

This tactic is employed by scum who wish to appear more active than they actually are; either for the scum who has no comment on the current matter but does not want to seem like they are lurking, or for the lurker who wants to paint themselves as slightly better than some other lurker.

The effectiveness of this tactic is quite impressive if players are not specifically looking for it. It is a common Town mistake to wish for the elimination of people they violently disagree with over the people who post whatever they can to stay on the periphery. However, Towns nowadays are often aware of this behaviour and will consider it a major scumtell."

(And #266, which Italiano posted while I was writing that, says pretty much the same thing in using many fewer words. This makes me suspect that Italiano is town, having come to the same conclusion as me independently from the same evidence.)

This line of thinking is a mistake in my opinion.

@Frogsterking: Do you view Nosferatu as significantly scummier than sordros? If so, what's the difference between the two slots?

Yes. Here are the top four differences:

#1 Experience

It's easy to see sordros is new to the format of the game. Here is his first post in the spoilers below:

Spoiler:

I know a few players in the playerlist (SJReaver, Frogsterking, & Walter)

I don’t know the others, but this is for everyone...

1. What is your mafia experience?
2. What is your play style strength(s)? Weakness(es)? Do you know?
3. In your opinion, what is the most important thing to look for while scumhunting? While townreading?

I’ll go first.

• - This is my 5th game game onsite, however, I have been playing the wolf/village variation of the game on a forum called WeBL since about 2006. I’m still learning how to play the game on this platform; trying to get the terms down and all that; still learning the roles and alignment s and slots and all that, so by mafia standards I’m still a noob.
  - I’d have to say my strength is the ability to townread players. Because of my overall experience I am right on village/town reads probably about 80-85% of the time all time. It’s obviously not that high on here, but still fairly high enough, I’d say about 55%. My weakness is scumhunting. A large part of this is my overthinking. Many times I’ve talked myself out of scumreads or finding wolves because of this. No matter how much I’ve tried to alleviate this flaw it keeps biting me in the butt, so I figured I’d focus on my strength and try to keep strengthening that.
  - I think looking for inconsistencies and either passiveness or aggressiveness given the context. When I townread, it’s mainly gut sometimes as I can’t point to something specific, but I’d say I look for a player being disagreeable and/or a player who has his own thoughts and mind and doesn’t go with the crowd.

Look forward to your answers.

Hello fellows!
I like this way to get things going.

I’ve played mafia here for a while a long time ago and played werewolf/mafia here and there over the years.
I don’t think I’m introspective enough to know my real strengths and weaknesses, but I guess I’m kind of good at paying attention to detail when I have enough time and spotting inconsistencies, which I think is the best way to hunt mafia scum.
I get a townie vibe from people who participate and keeps things clear, without inconsistencies. Problem is a good mafia player will strive to achieve just that.
That’s what keeps things interesting for this game I guess.

Peace!

#2 Intent

Because of difference #1, Experience, it's difficult to discern whether sordros's lack of presence is due to difficulty keeping up with the pace of the game or a desire to hide something. Contrast this with Nosferatu whose intent to not contribute is very purposeful in the spoilers below:

Spoiler:

prodge to post when i'm sober

im posting for the mod not you doofus

I recognize tour cote has valid criticism of my gameplay so far.
Nm nosferatu
Any fucking reads?

thats a lil personal dont u think?

#3 Openness

Despite the lack of presence, in contrast to Nosferatu's evasiveness in the examples above, it's easy to find examples of sordros participating in the discussion in some way. In addition to sordros's intro post in the spoilers under #1, more examples of sordros providing unsolicited input into the discussion in the spoilers below:

Spoiler:

We don't know anything about the set-up?

No idea how many mafia there are, if there are more than two factions? No idea what roles people might have?

This is weird. I don't like it.

Here's some better questions guys:

1) What do you like most about cinderblocks

2) What is your favorite concrete color mix?

3) When was the first time a cinder block changed your life?

4) What is the capital of Assyria?

5) Do you believe the Church and gospel of Jesus Christ have been restored through the Prophet Joseph Smith?

1. They are solid.
2. Grayish
3. When it smashed my toes
4. Assur?
5. More input required to compute

Wow. At this point in time you are suspicious of the labeled RVS?
I guess I’d think it depends on the bandwidth each player has to invest on this but honestly I don’t get any clear read from what I’ve read so far. I’d consider random voting still valid. Let me go back and review the posts...

More from me tomorrow

What happens when someone fluffposts a lot is that the thread ends up expanding quickly and making the useful content harder to find; then people end up dreading having to catch up (and get frustrated at the "thread has been bumped" indicators), stop reading for a while, their eyes glaze over and they stop scumhunting. Then scum win. Reducing the number of posts like that (even if you simply just combine them) makes it easier for players to get into the game, and makes people generally easier to read.

Oh I can definitely agree to that. Too much volume makes it harder for me to catch-up and easier for smart scum to hide between the lines.

#4 Attention

Sordoros's attention seems to be on group discussions and thoughts and feelings of other players. If he's not interested in opening new lines of discussions, he's at least interested in continuing existing ones. He also seems to avoid discussions containing filler. This is in contrast with Nosferatu whose attention is on filler and shutting down lines of discussion (especially shutting down lines regarding scum tells and/or himself):

Spoiler:

Wouldn't call active lurking + silent BW + immediate counter BW from three other players a null slot or bad excuse for a vote.

u unironically sat down at ur computer and said that u didnt believe that i would post sober bc the person in my avatar was smoking LMAO

he posted too many questions its not that deep

he posted too many questions its not that deep

Oh I see so nothing.

idk why u were looking for something where there is none

By the end of page 3 I will have caught 1 scum.

Proceed.

Nope. By the end of day 1 no one will have caught scum. Never happened before, it isnt going to change here

Wdym by “no one will have caught scum”

I find day 1s fairly useless, way too much noise and people being too clever. no one has got any info to go on and day one is just random....excepting scum never get lynched.

thats cause you suck at the game

VOTE: Walter

RQS should be permabannable

finally some quality content

Final Notes:

There was one post from sordoros I thought could be a scum tell because of its potential to be gloating:

Spoiler:

By the end of page 3 I will have caught 1 scum.

Proceed.

Awesome! Looking forward to that!

I also thought Nosferatu's reaction to my FoS was terrible in addition to his silent BW in the spoilers below:

Spoiler:

I feel like Nosferatu if he flipped town would just post some filler there instead of explaining that he couldn't post filler because he's drunk.

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

what are you even saying bro
which one of us was drinking last night lmao

wait until sober to post*

VOTE: walter

Overall sordoros appears closer to new-neutral than new-scum from my point of view while Nosferatu straight up deserves a BW.

Well at the very least he’s an unhelpful pointless townie
VOTE: Nosferatu

[ItalianoVD]

Oh wow, gotta lot to catch up on.

[ItalianoVD]

Okay so what’s happening with 334 What’s a spoiler chat?

Aight I think Frog is scum and it looks like the interaction between him and Nosferatu is scum theatre. Frog’s reason is weak and forced. Nosferatu’s reaction to that weak forced case also seems weak and forced. That’s why my vote is there and will probably stay there. You voting for yourself is never a good idea imo.

I’m feeling a little off about callforjudgment. Very townie. Very beautiful and perfect posts. The best posts in the history of our country. You’ve never seen posts like these before. So beautiful.

Townies

Walter
SJReaver
Banana
RCEnigma
Raya
Not_Mafia

Scum

Frogsterking
Nosferatu
callforjudgment

Null and/or no read

sordros
Gamma
geraintm

I have to look back over Gamma and geraintm to get a better read. Still no idea what Sordros is doing here.

[ItalianoVD]

VOTE: callforjudgment

[ItalianoVD]

Spoiler chat = the dead/spectator thread that games have so those who aren’t playing anymore, plus those who just want to watch, can discuss the game, there’s variable practice on how much information the mod will give in them (sometimes there’s 2 for spoiled and unspoiled discussion) but generally you’ll at least get some drips of info from the mod or those with extra knowledge (scum most of the time) talking about the game events in there

Oh okay. Appreciate that.

[ItalianoVD]

Dayvig: Gamma

@RCenigma - you have call for judgement as scum, but you have just killed Gamma??

Cfj is the easier to elim, so yes.

Sorry, no clue what this means. What is dayvig? Gamma is killed?

[ItalianoVD]

selfvotes are always scummy

I don’t know if it’s only a scum based action, but definitely anti-town. On that note

@Nosferatu: what purpose does it serve besides ATE? Which is not helping town, but helping yourself? With the numbers the way it is a townie elimination on Day 1 will not break or lose the game for town. I know play styles/personality have a lot to do with how players react to pressure and wagons being formed on them, etc., but your action seemed fake and forced (scum) or at the very least bad unhelpful play (townie)

[ItalianoVD]

Am I the only one that thinks that is townreading Nos? I don't understand the scumreads on him and the votes on him feel opportunistic at best

Could you explain why? I’m open to see things differently.

[ItalianoVD]

Tone feels town, I have also done the exact same thing as town multiple times myself in the past.

I respect that. I actually did it myself in two games I’ve played here, but was told it was stupid and anti-town, so when I see, I assume that’s what it is.

Mainly, I don't see the play here from a scum POV. Especially with the self vote. I understand the "AtE" argument but it feels like suboptimal play, he could just attempt to brush off the criticism as scum instead of going ham like this and self voting

I see. Have you played with Nosferatu as both alignments?

if i was scum i probs would've waited for like a couple more votes before throwing a tantrum what was i at like 2-3 votes lmao?

When people say this, I never get with it. People say this all time and expect the town to just say “oh okay, if you said it, it has to be true”. I’m saying it can be faked, however, I’m willing to give you the benefit of the doubt for now.

[ItalianoVD]

okay does no one know how the role rules work rn

Right here.

[ItalianoVD]

Mainly, I don't see the play here from a scum POV. Especially with the self vote. I understand the "AtE" argument but it feels like suboptimal play, he could just attempt to brush off the criticism as scum instead of going ham like this and self voting

I see. Have you played with Nosferatu as both alignments?

I haven't played with anyone here

Hmm, I figured you’ve played with him, which is why you’re saying what you’re saying.

[ItalianoVD]

And i read that and went "oh..." but every game I play there seems to be a new role I've never played with before.
I wish people wouldn't lie fake claims just confuwe me. I'm a simple man and just want things kept all easy

Yeah same.

[ItalianoVD]

Charmander just shot up to FoS #2 for his terrible defense of Nosferatu. Arguably it makes him even scummier than Nosferatu.

For reasons I can’t reveal based on the rules, I’m taking Frogsterking out of my scumreads.

[ItalianoVD]

@Frogsterking: I’m wondering why you’re so hostile towards Nosferatu? What say ye?

For now: VOTE: Frogsterking

I'm not sure why initially but now I feel pretty platinum about it.

Okay so what’s happening with 334 What’s a spoiler chat?

Aight I think Frog is scum and it looks like the interaction between him and Nosferatu is scum theatre. Frog’s reason is weak and forced. Nosferatu’s reaction to that weak forced case also seems weak and forced. That’s why my vote is there and will probably stay there. You voting for yourself is never a good idea imo.

I’m feeling a little off about callforjudgment. Very townie. Very beautiful and perfect posts. The best posts in the history of our country. You’ve never seen posts like these before. So beautiful.

Townies

Walter
SJReaver
Banana
RCEnigma
Raya
Not_Mafia

Scum

Frogsterking
Nosferatu
callforjudgment

Null and/or no read

sordros
Gamma
geraintm

I have to look back over Gamma and geraintm to get a better read. Still no idea what Sordros is doing here.

Interesting. A lot of assumptions but definitely exciting. I would probably do this as scum if I ever got the chance.

Which ones are the assumptions and which ones are exciting?

[ItalianoVD]

Taylor Swift??

[ItalianoVD]

Too bad you’re scum.

[ItalianoVD]

I'm a Day PT Cop, BananaCucho has a PT

VOTE: BananaCucho

What??

[ItalianoVD]

im a day daycop cop. N_M isnt a daycop of any kind.

[ItalianoVD]

I'm a Day PT Cop, BananaCucho has a PT

VOTE: BananaCucho

What??

Do you not have the ability to read one post up?

What does it mean?

[ItalianoVD]

All these hidden roles and real or fake gambits. I wish I could vote for all of you.

[ItalianoVD]

People are complaining about something happening but refuse to vote on wagon. Callforjudgment is being scumread. Nosferatu is being scumread. At the moment callforjudgment is the leading wagon so jump on it and we can kill scum. Thrones complaining about wasting time are the ones wasting the time.

What’s up shelly?

[ItalianoVD]

Those not thrones.

[ItalianoVD]

cfj is one of my scumreads... and this was just an observation I made that supports that

I get that. But one of your two scumreads has been close to elim for a few days now and you kinda just....opted to ignore the wagon as a whole until now. Which is cool, looks weird, but it's cool.

No it’s not cool.

[ItalianoVD]

Bah you were the leading wagon until Taylor changed her vote. I missed it initially. Now there are 3 wagons at 3 votes.

[ItalianoVD]

Is the evaporation of CFJ's wagon suspicious to you?

You could say that. I’ll have to look back at where the momentum stopped. IIRC, there were people calling the game boring and asking to make something happen. It was then followed by the claims/gambits, etc. That has me the most suspicious.

@callforjudgment: there were 3 other players on your wagon why are they not getting the same speech? Why didn’t they try to persuade people to vote for you? It’s not my job to make people vote for who I want. Sounds like scum would be okay with doing. And your vote seems like it’s a frustrated vote. I brought the attention back to your wagon and you don’t like it.

[ItalianoVD]

Okay so 573 is where it all started. Then Not_Mafia did his thing. Nosferatu and Frogster followed. Then 579 happened. By the responses in 586 587 & 588, I assumed it was all a joke, but I didn’t know about the roles and whatnot and still don’t (the wiki pages are kinda wack) so I was confused and no one explained it to me so now I’m frustrated.

Then we have 600 (wait for it) Taylor’s post in 602 sounds like scum distancing and fake reading. Then 32 posts later in 634 she votes for Walter which looks like sheeping Not_Mafia.

If the whole claiming nonsense was just jokes and if we’re still joking, then what’s the point of anything?

[ItalianoVD]

Read into whatever you want to, but I’m suspicious of everyone voting for Walter.

[ItalianoVD]

Except Not_Mafia

[ItalianoVD]

Again, are you even reading the game?

Tayl0r was pushing me as recently as #561, and started to loosen her read in #602, changing vote in #634. That's the absolute opposite of parking on a wagon and doing nothing (look at how close those numbers are, especially relative to Tayl0r's activity level).
RCEnigma voted for me in #364, started loosening his read in #525, changed vote in #641; and also did look at other slots rather than just me (#396, #397). Despite this, I felt that this was a bit slow / scum-convenient for a read progression; it wasn't a strong enough scumread to vote the slot while other reads needed sorting, but I did mention the read in #547.
SJReaver (=Looker) posted me in #379 and almost immediately flaked out. Not posting when you're gone from the site is hardly suspicious. (Besides, I think this was most likely a pressure/wagoning vote rather than being based on a read, due to the timing and SJReaver's general style)

I’m not interested in engaging in your argument because you’re trying to take it away from the point I’m making...

Votecount 1.10

callforjudgement(4)

~ RCEnigma(52), Looker(49), ItalianoVD(48), Tayl0r Swift(19)

WaltertheDunce10(2)

~ Raya36(43), Not_Mafia(23)

shellyc(2)

~ Nosferatu(61), Frogsterking(26)

Tayl0r Swift(1)

~ callforjudgement(50)

Not_Mafia(1)

~ geraintm(50)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(56)

geraintm(1)

~ Gamma Emerald(70)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ WaltertheDunce10(62)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

...which is you were the leading wagon before Taylor switched her vote. You actually had 5 votes on you before the whole daycop claim circus. You’re denying what the facts are to push something else.

Acting like I'm being unfair by calling you out in particular is being really oblivious;

I didn’t say that. Don’t assume.

the way you've been treating my wagon is much scummier than the way anyone else has been, and I'm not the only person to notice this.

Really? Who else?

(On a side note: suppose the circumstances had been different, and I had singled out you in particular. What conclusions could you draw from this? It sounds like you're implying that you think I'm scum and that everyone else on my wagon is scum alongside me, which is very implausible.)

If you singled me out I would’ve just kept playing the game. My conclusions would be that you are either wrong or scum. Where am I implying what you think? If you can quote it, I will handle it as such.

If I scumread you and you are my top scumread, I’m not going anywhere else. You think I dropped a vote and checked out. That’s not it at all. I was actually being scumread for jumping all over the place early on.

If you are town, and if you have a strong scumread, it

is

your job to make people vote for it.

I don’t agree with this. Call it my playstyle, but I don’t do that. That’s why it’s a forum. You place your thoughts down and people are supposed to read them and either agree or disagree with them and then you engage in conversation to clear it up. I also don’t assume.

Because of this, I think most people assumed that you didn't actually have a genuine scumread on me, which is why your complaints about my wagon going nowhere were so surprising.

Why are you speaking for people?

[ItalianoVD]

yes but why this wagon? i have alarm bells ringing in my head.

1. Italiano is one of the more familiar names on the playerlist, I've played with them in Newbie 2019 / 2025.
2. Looking through Italiano's ISO, I don't really like the Frogsterking FoS by them. Frogster's posting (for now) reads fairly townie to me.

yes but why this wagon? i have alarm bells ringing in my head.

1. Italiano is one of the more familiar names on the playerlist, I've played with them in Newbie 2019 / 2025.
2. Looking through Italiano's ISO, I don't really like the Frogsterking FoS by them. Frogster's posting (for now) reads fairly townie to me.

Did you really iso? Caused you would’ve seen 490. Maybe you missed it.

[ItalianoVD]

i mean, you dont think the timing of: a) wagon starts forming on walter b) suddenly the game becomes active and theres a flashwagon thats forming counter to walter on you suspicious? i cant prove that my above posts were made as i read prior to seeing this, but doesnt that suggest that im not merely distancing from cfj but rather trying to evaluate cfj honestly and fairly? isnt reconsidering pro-town?

Sure, you can say that from a town perspective. You have said callforjudgment is your stronger scumread of the two but you are voting Walter. To me it sounds like distancing.

i voted walter because walter is pretty scummy and its a viable wagon. i left the naked vote to see what reactions would be. the counterwagon and sudden flurry of activity suggest that my walter vote was a good one.

That’s fine, I just don’t think he’s scum. I’ve played with Walter and I just have a strong feeling he is townie.

[ItalianoVD]

why this vote? ive really seen nothing so far to indicate you had suspicion of italiano, and this isnt a major wagon, so why join here? seems like now that theres a little momentum on walter that you come in and start a counterwagon. interesting.

No one's convinced me that Walter is scum. But I feel like Italiano can flip red by virtue of being outside of my townreads.

I'd like to flip all of Italiano, cfj, taylor, gamma, Raya, banana today and then reevaluate after.

Well we agree, I’d like to flip the entire playerlist, then I’ll feel better.

[ItalianoVD]

@callforjudgment: You are right, at the time I made my comment I thought you were still the leading wagon because I initially missed Taylor and RCEnigma jumping off of you. My apologies on that; with that said: There were two changes to the game state that your wagon was involved in.

(1) Nosferatu said the game was boring and for someone to do something. That’s when the counterwagon to your wagon was created (Banana)
(2) You said you didn’t like the game state and wanted something done about it. That’s when your wagon gets dissolved. (Walter / myself)

You

were

the leading wagon and were at L-2.

1) RCEnigma started it
2) Nosferatu jumped on
3) SJReaver jumped on
4) I jumped on
5) Taylor jumped on

Then 573 happened, and Banana became the counterwagon. In 631 you said you didn’t like the gamestate and wanted something to be done about it. At the time of that post you were still the leading wagon. Then your wagon dissolved and went back to Walter and then to myself.

There is a problem with all this and the #1 problem is that you are pretty universally scumread. Frogsterking scumreads your slot, RCEnigma scumreads your slot, Taylor scumreads your slot, Raya scumreads your slot and yet none of them are voting for you.

If you are scum:

then I’d surmise your two partners are in that group or one is in that group and the other has distanced themselves from you completely.

If you are town:

then you’d be an easy target for scum to latch onto given your universal scumread, which is why I find it hard to believe that your wagon would dissolve if it was scum driven.

[ItalianoVD]

also worth noting that italiano is taking this opportunity of pressure on him and plausible counterwagon and NOT being opportunistic.

This statement really got me thinking. If you haven't already, I recommend reading Italiano and Walter in double ISO, following how they interact with each other.

The first wagon on Walter starts at #238 by Nosferatu. Italiano's next post, #266, is denouncing it. (At the time, I assumed that this was Italiano reading the situation the same way I was, and townread Italiano for it. I think I was wrong, though.)

Italiano had previously implied a townread or at least "no reason to think scum" read on Nosferatu (#234).
Walter attacked Nosferatu around the time Nosferatu voted Walter (#249, #257, #278).
Soon after, Italiano was attacking Nosferatu too (#281, vote in #294).

The Nosferatu wagon sits at four votes for a while. Then I derail it, based primarily on a gut read (#367).
Italiano places a (what is to me) surprising scumread on me in #381 and vote in #382. (This is the third vote, after RCEnigma and Nosferatu.)
Walter does not join this wagon (although he does ask lots of questions about it, that's natural when it's the largest wagon).
Eventually Walter calls me "70% certainty" of town (#614); this is technically a mild scumread (assuming a 10:3 setup, a hypothetically town Walter would think a perfectly null read was 75% likely to be town.)

The CFJ wagon sits at four votes for a while.
Then it starts shrinking, as Tayl0r moves to Walter (#634); that wagon's now the same size as mine (N_M voted Walter in #600).
Italiano reacts surprisingly strongly to this (#655), in effect complaining that the wagons should be on me and/or Nosferatu.
Italiano then defends Walter by attacking the wagon (#674, #675).

Walter earlier agreed with me that #655 is scummy (#659), but doesn't vote for Italiano.
As Tayl0r pointed out, there is notable pressure on Italiano but he has no interest at all in the counterwagon on Walter (instead, he's primarily been attacking me).

---

What I get out of all this is that Italiano is focused quite heavily on defending Walter. Whenever there's a wagon on Walter, Italiano votes the counterwagon (except that with this most recent wagon, the counterwagon to Walter is Italiano himself, and his response is to complain that people aren't on the wagons that previously collapsed!). Basically every time anyone scumreads Walter, Italiano attacks the

read

(but Italiano has only twice actually called Walter town, placing him top of a townread list in #381, without explanation; and giving a gut townread in #687). The attacks tend to be with weak or no reasoning, too (e.g. #674 attacks a read as "sheeping Not_Mafia", and you can't really sheep someone who never explains).

I think the most plausible explanations for all this are:
a) Italiano and Walter are scum together.
b) Italiano is scum (with Walter town), and wants everyone to think that Walter is scum alongside him, in the hope that we end up voting out Walter and Italiano can end up being vindicated by the townflip.

In either case, though, Italiano ends up as being scum. Unless someone can find meta evidence otherwise, I don't think it makes sense for a hypothetically town Italiano to defend Walter

this

hard based only on a gut read.

this is a good post. i think there is a third possible explanation though, which is why i moved my vote away from walter. i dont think im going to vote for walter or italiano today, but will expect more from them on subsequent days.

This makes me feel good. A good post.

[ItalianoVD]

At the moment the votes are:

Italiano (3) ~ shellyc, RCEnigma, callforjudgment
Walter (2) ~ Raya, Not_Mafia
callforjudgment (2) ~ Looker, Italiano
shellyc (2) ~ Frogsterking, Taylor
Not_Mafia (1) ~ geraintm
geraintm (1) ~ Gamma
Gamma (1) ~ Walter

A lot different from the gamestate that has been for the majority of this day.

[ItalianoVD]

@Italiano when you said "two partners are in that group" - what was the group you meant?

I was talking about this group

There is a problem with all this and the #1 problem is that you are pretty universally scumread. Frogsterking scumreads your slot, RCEnigma scumreads your slot, Taylor scumreads your slot, Raya scumreads your slot and yet none of them are voting for you.

This is not even taking into account cfj’s two voters (myself and Looker). So there’s a total of 6 slots out of the 13 that have made it known that they are either scumreading him or comfortable placing a vote there.

[ItalianoVD]

@frog - I havent been scum since I think my first game back in a newbie game. I've been vt game after game after game.

But that doesn’t mean you can’t be scum right? Occam’s razor and all that. That’s not really your defense is it?

[ItalianoVD]

At the moment the people I am townreading are of course Walter, now Taylor and Nosferatu.

Reason being, I know what I am and they both did things that they had no reason to do if they were scum imo.

Nosferatu saw the weirdness of people regarding cfj (namely Raya and Taylor) and pretty much backed me up. It doesn’t matter how you read me (null, town, scum) the fact that you did this regardless of where your vote is at the moment is pretty major.

BTW...you having fun on my wagon yet?


Taylor’s 715 post ... particularly this:

i think there is a third possible explanation though, which is why i moved my vote away from walter. i dont think im going to vote for walter or italiano today, but will expect more from them on subsequent days.

This shows me she is paying attention and had no reason to highlight a third option if she was scum. CFJ threw out the bait and she didn’t take it.

Sorry if these reads are personal and can’t be seen by others, just giving my thoughts. That’s it for now though, my other reads have been re-evaluated due to today’s wonderful events.

[ItalianoVD]

No, it was pointing out they wouldn't find a game where I had been acting differently because I was scum, which I believe they were asking.

Oh okay I see. I thought you were saying that as a response to being scumread.

[ItalianoVD]

Alright

VOTE: shellyc

[ItalianoVD]

I probably won’t be on at deadline, so wanna get my thoughts out now. I’m probably off in my scumreads, but just in case I get nighkilled.

okay
any suspects rn?

I’m suspicious of RCEnigma, Raya, callforjudgment, and possibly Gamma. I believe scum is somewhere in that group.

If I do get nightkilled then I believe either I was on the right track or the real scum will try to frame these players. If I do die make sure you look at it from both angles. If I don’t get nighkilled then perfect cause I have a feeling a town bloc will begin to form.

[ItalianoVD]

I can’t say I expected that execute flip, or that kill
Maybe I need to reset?

Or we can just vote you off.

[ItalianoVD]

VOTE: CFJ

He tried to pull the BW off shelly yesterday.

Among other things.

[ItalianoVD]

I think the shelly wagon was scum driven. Scum rarely get eliminated Day 1, except by luck or major slipup and the way this gamestate was in Day 1, it's very likely imo. Shelly wasn't even all that scummy to me.

[ItalianoVD]

ok italiano. its time for you and walter to explain why you were so confident in each other yesterday. i dont like your entrance to today, and while i covered for you yesterday i think you owe an explanation to everyone for what you crumbed yesterday.

And I appreciate that a lot. It's going to come up eventually, but I am the Friendly town neighbor and I share a neighborhood with Walter.

[ItalianoVD]

@Taylor: I am scumreading Gamma, just so you know.

[ItalianoVD]

I feel like there's a pretty good chance scum is between cfj or Walter though

So you're saying both scum bussed shelly?

Spoiler:

I will hammer whichever wagon hits E-1 first as soon as it hits E-1 no questions asked. Claims out if ya got em.

this post never comes from town

ur so cracked

honestly ill switch to shellyc

VOTE: shellyc

i town read this slot but i really don't like who's on the walter wagon with me

I'm tempted to town read Nosferatu for the end of day switch here.

I agreee sorta also. Iam trying to figure out why scum team would not stall out the game state again. Which makes me think nos is town for that. Although I'm not sure RCE using the same reasons is a good one.

Do you think a stall would be inconspicuous if they were already bussing?

I don't know how effective jumping off of shelly last minute would be.

Jumping on would be. Or staying off for that matter.

[ItalianoVD]

Do you have the ability to confirm yourself to people overnight?

Yes

If so, who did you confirm yourself to last night?

If that person wants to reveal that they can do that.

...and while i covered for you yesterday i think you owe an explanation to everyone for what you crumbed yesterday.

I missed this initially. Why does it sound like you are so concerned that I crumbed?

ok but do you know each other's roles? because a scum-town neighborhood is definitely a thing

From what I’ve read scum is more likely to be in 3+ person neighborhoods. That’s not to say it can’t happen in a 2 person neighborhood, but I don’t think it’s likely in this case.

And to answer your previous question, no Walter’s role has not been confirmed to me, but I wasn’t gonna feel comfortable him getting eliminated because I’ve had a strong feeling that Walter was/is town.

[ItalianoVD]

I think there's a chance that Italiano is confused between the roles "neighbour" and "friendly neighbour"; Italiano has been confirmed to have the first by Walter, and has claimed the second (possibly by mistake). It is possible, even in a Normal, for him to have both. This is why it's important to get a clarification of the claim, because there's a big difference in terms of balance impact and in what we can deduce from Walter's actions.

@

Italiano

: Are you a Friendly Neighbour (can confirm self as town), or just a Neighbour (can talk privately)? If you are a Friendly Neighbour, a) who did you confirm yourself to (knowing this will probably let us confirm you as town), b) did Walter know that prior to the end of Night 1?

Not confused and not a mistake. I have a dual-role.

[ItalianoVD]

im concerned because i picked up on the crumb and made an assumption about your role and then hard defended you and walter (especially walter).

I’m confused. What were you expecting? It sounds like you feel you were duped or something.

following that, the pressure on walter disappeared. if theres a possibility that walter could be scum (if most/all of you are in neighborhoods it becomes increasingly likely that at least some of you are in neighborhoods with scum). if the pressure on walter disappeared for bad reasons, then we should look back at day 1 and reconsider whether walter is a good push today.

There are only two people in the neighborhood. The neighborizer can grow the neighborhood but that’s not a role that we can see.

[ItalianoVD]

well i was expecting you to be masons. or otherwise be sure of each other's role/alignment, since you said you thought walter is town. unless other people claim to be neighbors as well, its probably safe to assume that walter is town (a T-S neighborhood as the only neighborhood would provide a tremendous amount of disutility to town and would probably not be balanced in a normal game without some really strange other roles), but the point of the neighbor role rather than the mason role is that you can potentially be neighbors with scum. so based on the information you had at the time i dont know why you assumed walter was town. but i guess i dont have access to your pt so maybe theres something there.

Well I think it’s like Masons on steroids. This makes me think that the scum have some extra special powers or it’s a 9-4 setup like Frogster theorized, otherwise it’d be one or the other but not both.

as for your second point i realize that its only the two of you in that neighborhood, but there could be other neighborhoods, right?

I have no idea, I can only speak for our neighborhood.

[ItalianoVD]

Panic from both the tayl0r and CFJ slots.

what sort of panic do you think im in? what exactly do you think is causing me to panic?

I don't know the type or cause of what I'm perceiving to be panic, it's just how I would describe the tone of your posts. I'd expect town to be somewhat relieved or even emboldened over the results of the previous night and day alone. Then fmpov Italiano brings even more good news for town with his claim and I didn't read a positive emotional response from you then either.

If there was a scum on the shelly wagon, which I don't believe is necessarily true, based on your D2 opening I think you're the most likely.

At this point in time if the setup is 10-3 I believe the scumteam is Gamma, CFJ and shelly, if the setup is 9-4 I would add you to that list.

Do you still think this with 897 in mind?

[ItalianoVD]

I missed geraintm's claim:

Player List:

ItalianoVD claims hood
WaltertheDunce10 claims hood

RCEnigma (implicit no hood claim?)
Nosferatu

Looker claims no hood
taylor claims no hood
gamma claims no hood
geraintm claims no hood
Raya36 claims no hood
Frogsterking claims no hood
callforjudgement claims no hood

Unless RCEnigma and Nosferatu claim they’re in a neighborhood, it looks like Walter and I are in the only one. And is it safe to assume that you have a power role as well Taylor? Going off 897, I’m guessing it’s not a scum aligned one.

[ItalianoVD]

I don't understand this. you say the reason scum get lynched day one is due to error or luck, but you toss in a 3rd reason which is scum drove it?

I just find it very hard to believe that 7 townies eliminated Banana/shellyc when multiple people including myself townread or slightly townread the slot. But it makes sense now that I look back on my interactions with Banana. I also know that according to vca we will be able to tell if the wagon was scum driven later on in the game if we have a couple a mislynches in a row. I guess for now, I could place it on the backburner and look offwagon.

[ItalianoVD]

I can’t say I expected that execute flip, or that kill
Maybe I need to reset?

Or we can just vote you off.

pour quoi?

@Taylor: I am scumreading Gamma, just so you know.

why?

-An uninspiring iso

-Early day 1 interaction with Banana and Walter: He was okay answering Banana’s pointless questions (45), but got on Walter for asking pointless questions (191). His explanation in 240 made no sense to me. He put merit in Banana’s questions but disregarded Walter’s and they were equally as unproductive.

-The inconsistency on Walter in 842 and 843.

-Potential offwagon scum[/list]

[ItalianoVD]

I don't understand this. you say the reason scum get lynched day one is due to error or luck, but you toss in a 3rd reason which is scum drove it?

I just find it very hard to believe that 7 townies eliminated Banana/shellyc when multiple people including myself townread or slightly townread the slot. But it makes sense now that I look back on my interactions with Banana. I also know that according to vca we will be able to tell if the wagon was scum driven later on in the game if we have a couple a mislynches in a row. I guess for now, I could place it on the backburner and look offwagon.

if you think scum was on the wagon, who is the scum?

I’m trying to figure that out now. If I don’t find evidence to support my theory then I will let you know.

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

to me the only possible scum on the wagon would be frogster and nosferatu. frogster may have put a distancing vote and then gotten trapped as the wagon gained momentum and nosferatu may have been a reluctant bus vote towards the end. off-wagon i'd look at looker, and then maybe raya and gamma. i was so convinced raya was town yesterday, but raya's posts today have made me seriously doubt that.

Well I don’t think it’s Frogster and probably not Nosferatu. Could be RCEnigma or geraintm, but that would take some real digging. Now that I’m talking about it though, it probably makes more sense that scum was offwagon. So then how much of the day 1 elimination was good scumhunting and how much of it was luck? Oh and we’re pretty much thinking the same on Raya, although I was thinking it yesterday.

also italiano if you townread shelly why did you vote there?

Well I townread you and Frogsterking so I figured you saw something I didn’t see and comfortably followed.

also since i think everyone has posted and no one has claimed to receive the message, italiano if you targeted me last night i didnt get the message but im not counterclaiming, i think there may be another explanation.

Hmmm. If that’s what you’re saying then it’s a weird setup. Are you able to say what role you have? If you don’t feel you should, don’t. The person I targeted knows who they are and I would rather them confirm. Before the day is out the town will know who I targeted whether confirmed by me or them.

[ItalianoVD]

@Taylor: 952 is a joke right?

@Raya: Did you ever look into Walter’s meta? (224). And did you ever go back? (299)

And am I the only one who DIDN’T think Frogster was in a neighborhood?

[ItalianoVD]

I can’t say I expected that execute flip, or that kill
Maybe I need to reset?

Or we can just vote you off.

pour quoi?

@Taylor: I am scumreading Gamma, just so you know.

why?

-An uninspiring iso

-Early day 1 interaction with Banana and Walter: He was okay answering Banana’s pointless questions (45), but got on Walter for asking pointless questions (191). His explanation in 240 made no sense to me. He put merit in Banana’s questions but disregarded Walter’s and they were equally as unproductive.

-The inconsistency on Walter in 842 and 843.

-Potential offwagon scum[/list]

VOTE: Gamma

[ItalianoVD]

what are the odds that cfj vs frog is TvT here? pretty low i reckon. in any case scum is suddenly doing a good job of muddying the waters, and some townies are helping them.

Actually I believe that there’s a pretty good chance it is TvT.

Can you elaborate on your second sentence?

[ItalianoVD]

This is not a defense, but all those suspicious of Looker, were you suspicious of SJReaver?

[ItalianoVD]

Anyone else notice Looker is self-voting for no reason?

VOTE: Looker
I checked the context of that vote and that’s a whole crateful of yikes.

I’m not a fan of how cfj is interacting with frogster, feels like discrediting. It seems like cfj wants to smear frog’s reputation just on principle

Great misdirection.

[ItalianoVD]

Gamma starting to town tell now in recent posts leaves me with a solid scum read on the CFJ slot.

But you unvoted Gamma and for cfj before Gamma even said anything.

[ItalianoVD]

@Frogsterking: look at what Gamma has said about cfj in 1031 from the perspective that cfj is scum. Feels good right?

Now look at it from the perspective that cfj is town. Do you get the same good feeling?

[ItalianoVD]

@Taylor: 952 is a joke right?

@Raya: Did you ever look into Walter’s meta? (224). And did you ever go back? (299)

And am I the only one who DIDN’T think Frogster was in a neighborhood?

I skimmed some Walter meta and I didnt go back through cfj

1) What did you find from skimming through Walter? 2) So then you just said you were gonna go back through cfj because it sounded good, but wasn’t actually planning on doing it?

[ItalianoVD]

This is not a defense, but all those suspicious of Looker, were you suspicious of SJReaver?

i certainly was

This is not a defense, but all those suspicious of Looker, were you suspicious of SJReaver?

I TRed SJR, I might re-evaluate that read now, seeing as I already was wrong on a townread that I feel was similar in logic

Anyone else notice Looker is self-voting for no reason?

VOTE: Looker
I checked the context of that vote and that’s a whole crateful of yikes.

I’m not a fan of how cfj is interacting with frogster, feels like discrediting. It seems like cfj wants to smear frog’s reputation just on principle

Great misdirection.

yeah thats a really bad sequence from gamma who has been pretty lurky all game.

I wouldn’t say lurky, I’d say forgettable.

[ItalianoVD]

the gamestate was in a really good spot 24 hours ago. we had good leads and the game felt under control. now it feels like chaos, which is partially scum driven im sure (either a wagon was going somewhere they didnt like or they were just being slowly cornered. but its also partially town driven. there are townies stirring shit up which is bad. now suddenly the game feels much less certain and sure - im not confident in where to apply pressure anymore. that suggests that wherever pressure was going 24 hours ago was the right direction

I’m sorry, but I’m not liking this post. 24 hours ago (from when you made this post) this was the vote count:

Votecount 2.2

WaltertheDunce10(1)

~ Looker(3)

Looker(1)

~ Tayl0r Swift(18)

callforjudgement(1)

~ Frogsterking(14)


Not Voting (8): ItalianoVD(15), callforjudgement(8), Gamma Emerald(4), geraintm(3), Raya36(10), Nosferatu(3), RCEnigma(5), WaltertheDunce10(4)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-22 17:44:55)

Then you, cfj, Raya, and geraintm jumped onto RCEnigma. Then you jumped off onto Raya and RC voted for Raya. You gotta be more specific about what you’re saying. And what gamestate are you referring to? What townies are stirring it up? You’re not confident in applying pressure? Really? Why? Just do it. BTW what

are

your reads up to this point?

[ItalianoVD]

Let’s get some more pressure on here, see what movements happen

VOTE: Raya

That’s E-2

[ItalianoVD]

Aren’t they mutually exclusive?

anti-town = selfvote
scummy = selfvote

anti-town=lolhammer/quickhammer
scummy = lolhammer/quickhammer

Unless I’m oversimplifying it?

[ItalianoVD]

Well last time CFJ was on wagon it dissipated. I think the town is a little more sure of itself, at least I hope so.

VOTE: CFJ

[ItalianoVD]

And just to elaborate on why this is frustrating: "looks like all my reads were wrong, I need to re-evaluate" is one thing that often happens to townies and can be annoying for them; but in this case, it's more like "looks like all my assumptions about how people play Mafia are wrong". We're in a game where some players are/were intentionally obtuse about their actions (Not_Mafia, RCEnigma), and some players have an excessively reactive playstyle which makes them hard to read (geraintm, Nosferatu, even Walter to some extent), and (perhaps because of this) few players seem to have a strong read on anyone.

Just look at the shelly wagon, for example:

• Tayl0r Swift: Appears to have had a genuine (if mild) scumread on shelly, but didn't explain it D1 (the closest to an explanation is #690), and didn't really push it.
  
• Frogsterking: Recently claimed to have had a D1 scumread on shelly; this surprised me, because it wasn't apparent in his D1 posting (it's stated in #619 and #734 but without explanation, and was explained but weak in #488).
  
• Italiano: Deadline vote; apparent counterwagon vote to Walter, who Italiano was defending at every opportunity D1 (presumably due to getting a townread from the neighbourhood), rather than being due to a scumread on shelly.
  
• Walter: Cross-voting the counterwagon. Doesn't appear to have had a scumread on shelly.
  
• Nosferatu: Explicitly stated a townread on shelly, but disliked the composition of the Walter wagon.
  
• RCEnigma: Had already expressed a willingness to hammer either the shelly or Walter wagons (apparently primarily as a deadline scramble, but RCEnigma rarely explains anything); chose shelly after the Nosferatu vote, with a "+1" implying sheeping/agreeing with the reasoning.
  
• geraintm: Naked hammer vote. geraintm seemed to be interested in both the shelly and Walter wagons (going back and forth to some extent) but scumread shelly towards the end (#830).

Based purely on the apparent motivation behind the votes, what would you consider the possibility that shelly would flip scum? I'd put it as close to 0%; a wagon like this, with no apparent attempt by scum to stop it, would make me think that the target of the wagon was town purely based on the wagon composition and the way other people were reacting to the slot. The resulting scumflip, therefore, didn't make any sense.

So then you’re saying you feel it was scum driven in some aspect? Or am I reading it wrong?

[ItalianoVD]

So I’ve been going through the shelly/banana wagon voters and doing ISO’s on everyone’s interaction(s) with the slot. I’m currently on Nosferatu and will be done with geraintm afterwards. There are no opinions; there isn’t any feedback within these findings so no use reading or trying to read into anything said.

[ItalianoVD]

I'm saying that I have no idea what happened, and it bothers me; and that I'm somewhat surprised that other people don't seem as bothered as I am.

Most of the playerlist either had a townread or no read on shelly, or at minimum was unwilling to vote for her. Wagons on such players are normally very hard to build (of course, deadline helps, but there were other deadline options). Normally I wouldn't expect such a wagon to be able to go through without scum manipulating for that to happen; but I also don't see why scum would manipulate a wagon on one of their own if they weren't going to get credit for it (I don't think many people are being given or trying to take credit for the shelly wagon). So I'm utterly confused as to how this situation could have happened at all.

Well I’m bothered by it. I mentioned it earlier in the day, because I agree; it doesn’t make sense for scum to not intervene and/or for town to vote for a townread/unknown slot.

[ItalianoVD]

Another question is and I’m not well versed in this site’s meta, but is towncred the only thought process behind bussing? Like just because it doesn’t make sense does it mean we disregard it?

[ItalianoVD]

I’m gonna go finish my ISO’s but before I do I wanna say this: there are two things on the table that is concerning for the town imo

1) My claim and
2) The shelly wagon

I think if we can figure out what’s going on with this shelly wagon then I will be okay revealing my night’s actions and answering any other questions, but to me my claim is insignificant at the moment and instead of harping on it we should try to figure out what’s going on.

[ItalianoVD]

Okay as promised I am complete with the shelly wagon ISO’s.

Spoiler:

Taylor

Sordros’ only interaction with Banana was in 68 when he was answering Banana’s questions from 44. Taylor’s only actual interaction with shelly came at the bottom of post 678 and that was it. shelly answered her in 683 and then responded to Taylor’s 690 in the very next post 691. Taylor never responded or followed up on that interaction, but I didn’t really look at it as a bad thing since she scumread her for about the whole of Day 1. Since Taylor replaced in, she didn’t have the opportunity to interact with Banana.

Frogsterking

Frogster had no 1on1 interaction with Banana/shellyc on day 1. Banana voted for Frogster in 218. 471 was Frogster’s first mention of Banana. Then he mentions him again in 488 in response to Walter’s 482. Frog votes for Banana in 578 after Not_Mafia’s 574. In 619 mentions he’d be okay with a Nosferatu or Banana lynch. Kind of mentions shelly in passing in 734. Mentions wanting to switch vote from geraintm to shelly/banana in 808. Votes for shelly in 816 and mentions he’s willing to switch back to geraintm. Mentions the shelly wagon again 818. Mentions the strong feeling on the shelly wagon in 854.

Walter

It was kind of difficult doing Walter’s iso because there are times I don’t know who he is responding to given his posting style, so I will try my best to catch everything. He Interacts with Banana in 47 by answering Banana’s 44. Then he posts 61 which is a response to Banana’s 60. 65 was response to Banana’s 63 and 67[/post] is response to Banana’s 66. Then has more interaction with Banana in 127 137 & 145. He asks Raya about Banana in 166and then gives a read on Banana in 168. Kind of elaborates somewhat on the read in 172. Slight mention of Banana in 248 and again in 480. Voted for shelly in 821.

RCEnigma

First interaction with Banana is in 123 answering Banana’s 120. Mentions Banana in passing as one of the players he’d want to eliminate in 688. Elaborates on 688 with 697 which is in response to callforjudgment’s 696. 804 is his next mention of shelly and sort of mentions her in 814 which was in response to Taylor’s 811. Alludes to the shelly wagon in 826 and then votes for shelly in 858.

Nosferatu

It looks like Nos’ first interaction with Banana is in 459, although I’m not quite sure if it’s Gamma he’s responding to, Banana or both. Then he votes for Banana in 575. He then unvoted shellyc in 665. 712 mentions banana/shelly and a little bit of reasoning behind his actions. Then he votes for shelly in 856.

geraintm

His first mention of Banana is in 190. The first actual interaction with the slot is in 652 and 694. There is an indirect mention of the shelly slot when responding to Taylor in 732. Another slight mention in 774 when responding to Frogsterking. Then another interaction with shelly in 775. Mentions shelly in 824. Then a mechanics mention in 828. Votes for shelly in 830, unvoted her in 834 and then voted for her again in 859

After doing the ISO’s I realize I have to do the offwagon ISO’s as well to get the full picture. I will do those tomorrow, my eyes need a rest.

[ItalianoVD]

@callforjudgment: I point you too...

So I’ve been going through the shelly/banana wagon voters and doing ISO’s on everyone’s interaction(s) with the slot. I’m currently on Nosferatu and will be done with geraintm afterwards.

There are no opinions; there isn’t any feedback within these findings so no use reading or trying to read into anything said.

[ItalianoVD]

We have time. I want people to look at it and form their opinions. I already have my opinions written out.

But appreciate the shade though.

[ItalianoVD]

(Just to make sure it's 100% clear: I did not receive a Friendly Neighbour report about Italiano last night, nor do I have any reason to think that such a report wouldn't arrive if it were sent to me.)

Why would I use my ability on someone I feel is scum? Hmm?

[ItalianoVD]

I take it this role is used to form a voting bloc of townie players to go against scum, so sending it to someone you’re suspicious of seems kinda stupid. Of course that doesn’t mean you can’t unknowingly send it to scum who you think is town, but I assume doing that is counterproductive.

[ItalianoVD]

Okay. Duly noted.

[ItalianoVD]

I’ve been out all day, but I said I would do the ISO’s of shelly’s offwagon voters today so here they go. Again there is no analysis or opinions (I will give my thoughts and analysis most likely tomorrow). I will say that doing these ISO’s has completely destroyed whatever reads I thought I had.

Spoiler:

Raya

Raya’s first mention of Banana was in 165[/post. In [post]167 is answering Walter’s 166. Another in 169, responding to Walter’s 168. Also mentioning Banana in 206 still responding to Walter. Alludes to Banana in 208 in response to geraintm’s 190. Then another mention of Banana in 213; again responding to geraintm’s 212. Raya’s first 1on1 interaction with Banana is in 224, responding to 217. Second interaction with Banana comes in 429 in response to Banana’s 427 and then in 441 in response to 432. Interacts with shelly in 671 in response to shelly’s 649. Mentions shelly in 699[post] in response to Taylor’s [post]690. Then she has multiple interactions in 702 704 and 706.

callforjudgment

First interaction with Banana is in 56, then in 62 and then votes for him in 119. Alludes to Banana in 152. Alludes to Banana again in 174. Mentions Banana a couple of times in 270. Again mentions Banana in 464. A mention of banana/shelly in 696, 754, 813, 827, 829, and 835

Gamma

Gamma’s first interaction with Banana is answering his 44. Answers Banana in 240, 241, 242, and 433. Mentions Banana in 434 and then again in 842 and 843

Looker

Replaced in so did not have the opportunity to interact/mention Banana. First interaction with shelly in 666 and then again in 731

P.S. I already have my thoughts/analysis written out so you don’t have to assume I’m potentially making it up as I go @callforjudgment

[ItalianoVD]

My bad let me clean that up, don’t like the way that looks

Spoiler:

Raya

Raya’s first mention of Banana was in 165. In 167 is answering Walter’s 166. Another in 169, responding to Walter’s 168. Also mentioning Banana in 206 still responding to Walter. Alludes to Banana in 208 in response to geraintm’s 190. Then another mention of Banana in 213; again responding to geraintm’s 212. Raya’s first 1on1 interaction with Banana is in 224, responding to 217. Second interaction with Banana comes in 429 in response to Banana’s 427 and then in 441 in response to 432. Interacts with shelly in 671 in response to shelly’s 649. Mentions shelly in 699 in response to Taylor’s 690. Then she has multiple interactions in 702 704 and 706.

callforjudgment

First interaction with Banana is in 56, then in 62 and then votes for him in 119. Alludes to Banana in 152. Alludes to Banana again in 174. Mentions Banana a couple of times in 270. Again mentions Banana in 464. A mention of banana/shelly in 696, 754, 813, 827, 829, and 835

Gamma

Gamma’s first interaction with Banana is answering his 44. Answers Banana in 240, 241, 242, and 433. Mentions Banana in 434 and then again in 842 and 843

Looker

Replaced in so did not have the opportunity to interact/mention Banana. First interaction with shelly in 666 and then again in 731

That’s better.

[ItalianoVD]

@

geraintm

(and everyone else who hasn't clarified yet, but geraintm is posting recently): Could you confirm whether or not you received a Friendly Neighbour message about Italiano last Night?

Italiano's Night action is something that it's fairly important to clarify quickly; it's incorrect in theory to vote him out toDay either way, but knowing whether or not Italiano is a confirmed town voice would be helpful in scumhunting other players, because it would help us know what we should and shouldn't be paranoid about. Normally Friendly Neighbour claims are always town (because it's hard to fake them opposite a town that's checking out the claim), but I

have

seen one successfully faked in the past, and Italiano's recent play (e.g. stalling multiple times when I can't see any pro-town reason not to just say who he targeted) looks a lot more like a player who's hoping to get away with a fakeclaim than someone who's claiming their actual role.

(Even if Italiano is a Friendly Neighbour, the fact that nobody has claimed to receive the message yet makes me suspect that it didn't get through, because there's no reason not to claim it and yet nobody has. You're one of the few players who hasn't yet at least implied not having received the message.)

Or, you know, you can just scumhunt without that information. I looked at the deadline and we have a little over 8 days. If you don’t get that information until the deadline day, what are you not gonna scumhunt? Since you like assuming stuff about me, assume I am what I say I am and go from there.

[ItalianoVD]

I think this is a good time for Italiano to claim who he sent the message to

Why?

if theres only one neighborhood i find it to be exceptionally unlikely that its town-scum. if you're saying theres scum in you and walter,

then it almost has to be you cfj.

Yup.

[ItalianoVD]

Every flip makes scumhunting so much easier.

Yeah, especially when we flip scum, and that’s what happened, so maybe get to work huh? That flip produced soo much content.

It's certainly possible even without the information, but every read I have needs to deal with two possiblities, you as town and you as scum. If I (and everyone else) spend the day assuming that you're town, and then it turns out towards the end that you aren't confirmed town after all, we're all going to have to scramble to re-evaluate and will probably end up making a suboptimal decision. You shouldn't want the possibility of that happening if you're town, whereas it seems like something that would work out very well for you if you're scum.

You know, there are other people in this game and I feel like you are distracting yourself from looking at anyone else because you are so determined to know who I targeted. As I said assume I’m town and just go from there.

After all, if you

are

town, why are you so confident that your message was successfully received? If I were a Friendly Neighbour, and despite all the odds and prompting, nobody had confirmed me by this point in the Day, I'd start being really paranoid that something had gone wrong with the night action somehow and attempt to determine what that was and why.

You're acting like it's no big deal if you end up not being confirmed today.

I’m 99.9% sure my message was received. (bolded): That’s kinda it. I just believe it’s not the

most

pressing issue facing us at the moment. With a week left I want to get into more interactions and ask more questions to everyone. You seem more interested in clearing one slot.

[ItalianoVD]

I think this is a good time for Italiano to claim who he sent the message to

Why?

if theres only one neighborhood i find it to be exceptionally unlikely that its town-scum. if you're saying theres scum in you and walter,

then it almost has to be you cfj.

Yup.

Because of exactly what cfj said in 1185. All this is doing is hurting town. There is no reason for you not to claim who the message was sent to. If you have a reason I'd like to hear it.

If it is a fakeclaim then why tell me in neighbor chat where he sent it too.
That would out his scumbuddy.

If you know you should be telling us. Italiano is hurting town and you holding back info is hurting town too.

Tell me in your own words why it’s “hurting” town? Do you know?

[ItalianoVD]

It isn't a big deal and if his target doesn't out he can just out it before deadline or preferably in twilight.

And what if they still don't

I’ve already made a promise.

The person I targeted knows who they are and I would rather them confirm. Before the day is out the town will know who I targeted whether confirmed by me or them.

[ItalianoVD]

Isn't it somewhat likely at this point that the person you targeted is scum

Uhh, no.

(assuming that your action went through, which you seem to be assuming even though I haven't)?

Is it in your meta to assume as much as you do? I’m finding it very awkward and bothersome.

They've failed to confirm you despite

numerous

opportunities and

numerous

people trying to convince them to do so

So what?

...and when they've been asked to do so by you (who should be confirmed town to them and thus they should be following your instructions).

I’ve never asked anything.

[ItalianoVD]

dont wait until twilight. what if twilight is short today and you arent around and then you die and your target was scum. just claim it. theres nothing gained by waiting. this is info and clearly people are hung up on it.

Do you wanna claim what role you have?

[ItalianoVD]

I think this is a good time for Italiano to claim who he sent the message to

Why?

if theres only one neighborhood i find it to be exceptionally unlikely that its town-scum. if you're saying theres scum in you and walter,

then it almost has to be you cfj.

Yup.

Because of exactly what cfj said in 1185. All this is doing is hurting town. There is no reason for you not to claim who the message was sent to. If you have a reason I'd like to hear it.

If it is a fakeclaim then why tell me in neighbor chat where he sent it too.
That would out his scumbuddy.

If you know you should be telling us. Italiano is hurting town and you holding back info is hurting town too.

Tell me in your own words why it’s “hurting” town? Do you know?

1. Without you being confirmed because your message receiver hasn't spoken up puts suspicion on your slot. I honestly am thinking you're lying at this point but as a town reaction test, see how people react to an unconfirmed FN claim and see who tries to push it etc. This makes no sense coming from scum.

2. It does make reading players harder when one of the major events is your FN claim. The other major event being the Shelly wagon and contemplation on why it happened. I've been assuming you're town when reading but I hate trying to get reads on other players based on any associations with you. Especially knowing full well any reads slightly related to you could end up being thrown out and fully reevaluated. And I know I don't have to consider interactions with you and assume you're town but that's how I think when I read games. As soon as I confirm someone as town or locktown a player I start to think about how other players interacted with them.

3. If we find out last minute that you're not confirmed and could possibly be scum then that puts town in a pretty bad position, especially if any aspect of our reads are based on you being town. It means we would have to fully reevaluate with not much time left which could lead to a bad decision. I would also hate for a mis-elimination to go through knowing that we didn't have all the information we could have had and maybe with that information could've gotten scum.

This all sounds oddly familiar.

[ItalianoVD]

Isn't it somewhat likely at this point that the person you targeted is scum (assuming that your action went through, which you seem to be assuming even though I haven't)? They've failed to confirm you despite numerous opportunities and numerous people trying to convince them to do so, when there is no pro-town reason not to, and when they've been asked to do so by you (who should be confirmed town to them and thus they should be following your instructions).

I have a feeling this is true. This is why I'm pushing so hard for it to be claimed. Because for someone to hold it back this long for no apparent reasons besides I suppose reactions tests makes no sense. Its scummy and anti-town at best.

So then I should just vote for you, put you at L-1 and then claim the target? Then someone can hammer you?

[ItalianoVD]

Four.

[ItalianoVD]

I’m going to bed, but I’m gonna get some things off my chest real quick.

I don’t like the doubt being thrown around the town right now and it’s so obvious that it’s being done by scum. We were on track to look at the information from the scumflip. I’m pretty sure that’s the direction we were going in today, but misdirection is a powerful tool.

I think we should get back on track and get on these wagons and see what’s happening there. I was gonna give my analyses of the shelly flip after (1145 & 1170), both on and offwagon but these jokers have fully distracted the town and some of you have fallen right into it. Don’t do it, get your minds back on track and disregard the shade and the nonsense. And I’m not saying this to take the attention off of me. I want to lay it all out, just not right now. It’s not a stall, it’s a choice.

Another thing, I am not the leader of this town. Just because I am a TFN doesn’t mean everyone should just sheep me and do no work. My reads could be wrong. That’s why we all need to do work, interact, ask questions (about relevant things). I don’t care how much you ask me or pressure me, I am not giving you what you want. I have my reasons for not revealing who I used my ability on right now. It’s NOT anti-town, it’s NOT scummy, and it’s NOT “hurting” the town, I don’t care how many times you say it.

I will let the town know who I used my ability on when

I

choose to, not when you tell me to. If the one’s pushing this can’t get that, then I will simply ignore you all until I choose to reveal it. I am not intentionally trying to be a jerk, but just give it up. Let’s get this town back to actual scumhunting huh?

[ItalianoVD]

1224 was reference to cfj. There are only four people asking about the claim, not

everyone

like he is trying to frame it.

[ItalianoVD]

And don’t pressure Walter. He doesn’t know and it’s not his decision.

[ItalianoVD]

Okay so I want to give my thoughts on all the ISO’s I’ve done in connection with the banana/shelly slot. First:

UNVOTE: callforjudgment

Of course I will be referring to 1145 & 1170. I placed them in thread as reference for not only myself, but for the town as well. Not sure if anyone else has read them both and has come up with their own theories/opinions, but that was the purpose. I have a lot to get into, so this is the first post of many.

There were a lot of mentions to the banana/shelly slot; everyone in the playerlist mentioned the slot at least once. However when it came to actual interactions (speaking directly to the slot) I grouped them like so:

~ interactions for the sake of having interactions; no follow up
~ interactions to get a read; sort the slot, answer questions, push, etc.
~ no interactions at all

Now those who fit the first category are (Taylor, Looker, RCEnigma). Those who fit the second category are (Walter, myself, Raya, Nosferatu, geraintm, gamma, callforjudgment) Those in the last category is (Frogsterking)

I also did an iso on the banana/shelly slot and noticed something: In 82 Banana sort of gives callforjudgment a pass for his long post and doesn’t scumread him. In 691 shellyc said she saw a town mindset from call.

Why was this slot the only one that saw callforjudgment as possible town, while pretty much everyone else saw him as scummy or scumread him? Now I don’t know about Banana, but Shelly has precedence for bussing her partner and I don’t see her buddying up at all. Although the slot didn’t actually vote for call I think if call was scum I believe both Banana and shelly would have either distanced or bussed or at the very least placed him down as a scumread, should he flip (given he was getting heat for some time). This makes me think that callforjudgment is actually town.

[ItalianoVD]

I just realised that there's a scenario in which Italiano could be town, but nonetheless display the behaviour shown so far this game – if Italiano is

not

a Friendly Neighbour, but

is

confirmable as town via some other means. This would explain the otherwise inexplicable stalling: if he confirms himself, he'll likely just end up drawing the nightkill, whereas if he just waits and hopes the pressure will go away, there's a chance that day ends with him looking very scummy, and scum shoot elsewhere, and there's always a fallback plan for if a wagon does build on him.

Now you’re thinking outside the box.

[ItalianoVD]

It’s not quite exactly like you’ve said it, but you’re kind of in the area

[ItalianoVD]

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

[ItalianoVD]

I think you're underestimating shelly, she does more random things than you expect.

I'm not sure about that and what about Banana?

Then why did he say he did?

He said he knew who I targeted, which he does. What I was saying was he doesn't know why I'm holding back on revealing the target.

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

That's pretty muchf how I'm feeling right now. I had something all written up but after doing the isos, I'm torn.

Okay so I want to give my thoughts on all the ISO’s I’ve done in connection with the banana/shelly slot. First:

UNVOTE: callforjudgment

Of course I will be referring to 1145 & 1170. I placed them in thread as reference for not only myself, but for the town as well. Not sure if anyone else has read them both and has come up with their own theories/opinions, but that was the purpose. I have a lot to get into, so this is the first post of many.

There were a lot of mentions to the banana/shelly slot; everyone in the playerlist mentioned the slot at least once. However when it came to actual interactions (speaking directly to the slot) I grouped them like so:

~ interactions for the sake of having interactions; no follow up
~ interactions to get a read; sort the slot, answer questions, push, etc.
~ no interactions at all

Now those who fit the first category are (Taylor, Looker, RCEnigma). Those who fit the second category are (Walter, myself, Raya, Nosferatu, geraintm, gamma, callforjudgment) Those in the last category is (Frogsterking)

I also did an iso on the banana/shelly slot and noticed something: In 82 Banana sort of gives callforjudgment a pass for his long post and doesn’t scumread him. In 691 shellyc said she saw a town mindset from call.

Why was this slot the only one that saw callforjudgment as possible town, while pretty much everyone else saw him as scummy or scumread him? Now I don’t know about Banana, but Shelly has precedence for bussing her partner and I don’t see her buddying up at all. Although the slot didn’t actually vote for call I think if call was scum I believe both Banana and shelly would have either distanced or bussed or at the very least placed him down as a scumread, should he flip (given he was getting heat for some time). This makes me think that callforjudgment is actually town.

I've also been getting that feeling from cfj in general too. Maybe a bit biased but why defend me and start a counter wagon when I'd be an easy miselim and not many questions would be asked. He even kinda set it up by saying he was worried about me trying to buddy him. Doesn't make much sense as scum.

Mmm...okay. And if you could make a list, given that you don't have scumreads, who would be your strongest to least townread?

[ItalianoVD]

Also is it your meta to not scumread players? @Raya

[ItalianoVD]

@Frogsterking: Could you tell me why you went after geraintm so hard for suspecting you on Day 1, but did not even look Banana’s way when he voted for you in 218. I would think you would have said something to Banana, especially given how hard you did interact with geraintm for 769.

[ItalianoVD]

Spoiler:

At this point it's very unlikely that Italiano is scum; a Friendly Neighbour claim is hard to substantiate as scum (you have to keep claiming to target your buddies and/or the nightkill), and easy to prove as town (that's literally what the role does, proving itself as town). It would be helpful to verify that the claim has actually been substantiated before day ends, though, otherwise it'll lead us to be paranoid into future days.

If scum knew that Italiano was a Friendly Neighbour, that would make him an obvious nightkill choice. So it's also useful to know whether Walter knew Italiano was a Friendly Neighbour prior to the end of Night 1; if he did, that somewhat reduces the chance that Walter is scum.

@Tayl0r: mods (and playerlists!) differ on how much utility a T/S neighbourhood gives to town and/or scum. Some mods think that such a neighbourhood helps town (you can quiz your neighbour in the PT, figure out they're scum, and sometimes even figure out their buddies by the way they talk over the game with you); I once caught 2 out of 3 members of a scumteam because I was in a neighbourhood with one of them. But recently, players have had a tendency to assume that neighbourhoods are T/T, so some mods/reviewers will balance a T/S neighbourhood as though it helps scum and put in extra town power to compensate.

This is a good post. I definitely agree we should have the receiver of the FN message claim by the end of the day so we can confirm italiano is town. And it's also important to know if Walter knew about Italiano being the FN.

I did not know about Italiano being the FN prior to N1.
I only knew it when he posted it in thread here.

At what point did he tell you the target of his role?

Spoiler:

Walter for the non-committal start and weak pushes such as this pushing the fake claim early game to be PR fishing.
RCE for the fakeclaim thing that drew out town PRs and had 0 benefit for town. He also seemed overdefensive on that topic.

I really need to read and get back into the game because I'm very detached right now

Are you saying that Walter's scum because he didn't push hard enough the thing that you're pushing?

Um no? I never said that at all.

Spoiler:

Also I 100% agree that whoever got the FN message should either claim or be revealed by Italiano today and preferably not too late in the day. There is absolutely no reason for town to hold this info back.

I also am concerned about the Shelly wagon, I just haven't had the time to think too much into it.

What good does it do to hold it back? Claiming to receive the message doesn't make you a target. It doesn't make Italiano any more of a target. It doesn't out any extra info to scum outside of confirming Italiano. Claiming does take away any suspicion on Italiano and helps town in that way.

I think Italiano's lying. Two fakeclaims and a half-claim.

I'm starting to think it's all a lie too. Although most likely a lie coming from town.

• Well then, can you clarify?
  • You said RCE was scum for PR fishing, but said Walter was probably scum for weak pushes and saying that fakeclaims were PR fishing.
• Why would the lie be more likely coming from town?
  saw Post 1216

Should we split the wagons between you and Raya? You said you weren't overly* concerned with being elim'd

Do what you do. Don't get caught being the guy asking to be on the wagon though. It's going to look worse when I flip.

I really don't care at this point. This really isn't even fun anymore.

Town has no reason to rely on Italiano being confirmed right now or not. Or even at all today.

If Italiano is FN then cool, he gets confirmed today and the day continues as normal. Let's say his target doesn't claim today, scum has to kill him tonight or he hits town tomorrow. It's not like he's in danger of being lynched even without the claim.

Italiano was a waste of time, you are a waste of time, this game is a waste of time. If losing shelly made scum want to troll, then fine, but I'm not going to entertain it. He should've claimed a long time ago, and his fictitious target should have, too.

Spoiler:

Town has no reason to rely on Italiano being confirmed right now or not. Or even at all today.

If Italiano is FN then cool, he gets confirmed today and the day continues as normal. Let's say his target doesn't claim today, scum has to kill him tonight or he hits town tomorrow. It's not like he's in danger of being lynched even without the claim.

coming back from overnight.
man this game is weird.

but rcenigma, what do you mean by "or he hits town tonight". there is no garuentee that the person he targets is town from my understanding of the role

What's the likelihood that RCE and Italiano have fakeclaimed their ways into a corner?

If it is a fakeclaim then why tell me in neighbor chat where he sent it too.
That would out his scumbuddy.

If you know you should be telling us. Italiano is hurting town and you holding back info is hurting town too.

Fuck no
I will let him or his target do it.
I won't answer for either of them.

I think I missed the bit where walter knew the target. walter - can you think of a god reason why he isn't telling us who he targeted?

CFJ again does weird meta analysis that I don't think adds anything to the game

agree with rayas post 1216

I don't like this vagueness with whether or not Walter knew the target or the role. I don't see a town purpose for this obfuscation.

I don’t like the doubt being thrown around the town right now and it’s so obvious that it’s being done by scum. We were on track to look at the information from the scumflip. I’m pretty sure that’s the direction we were going in today, but misdirection is a powerful tool.

hey, lets not just blame people concerned about your reluctance as derailing today. Rcenigma did a pretty good job too

Italiano's just one person - he can't decide which direction the town is going. All of this random bullshit is weird.

Spoiler:

Votecount 1.13

shellyc(5)

~ Tayl0r Swift(42), Frogsterking(46), ItalianoVD(68), WaltertheDunce10(73), geraintm(70)

WaltertheDunce10(4)

~ Raya36(57), Not_Mafia(25), callforjudgement(68), Nosferatu(83)

ItalianoVD(2)

~ RCEnigma(66), shellyc(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(80), Looker(55)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

• prodding Not_Mafia
  
• looking for a replacement for shellyc

Out of these I’d rather we come back to Geraint. I’d also be okay with Italiano, but Shelly and Walter are townreads (at least, I was townreading Banana)

Does scum waffle here with a partner being the leading wagon?

This is just another WIFOM argument.

Spoiler:

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

Of the 4 remaining offwagon slots, coming into the day I had sjreaver/looker as the most likely town in that grouping. But lookers reasoning and timing on gerain is a lot less natural than gammas in general + a couple of town indicators in their iso puts gamma up there for now.

Looker has been on a downward trajectory since repping in but I don't know if that's necessarily scummy or if it's just him wanting to be contrarian.

• What has Gamma done that's so town
  
• What's contrarian about me
  • I think you're bluffing.

Hmm,I've got a theory actually but I still really want Raya out of here before I dive into that rabbit hole.

But then you dove into the rabbit hole two posts later...

---

• There's nothing unorthodox about me.
  • Gamma's just trying to find a way to be off-wagon again.

VOTE: Looker

Nah I’m not buying this. You chose to replace in. You saw the playerlist. You could’ve said “nah I’m not feeling this one” and moved on, but you didn’t. Get over yourself and play the game or replace out.

[ItalianoVD]

@ italiano - that was an awful lot of effort to get to the point that you read CFJ as town. you had to analyse everyone's actions with shelly, and then shelly actions with them. and all you get is CFJ is likely town? i'm not the only one who thinks you have reached. you answer might be right, but you have not got there is a good way.also, 1277/1278 - you are all too clever for me

Yeah there is more, but I want to clear up a few things first. Callforjudgment seems to be the first piece to where I think I’m going.

[ItalianoVD]

Votecount 2.8

Raya36(4)

~ RCEnigma(46), Tayl0r Swift(48), Nosferatu(23), WaltertheDunce10(24)

RCEnigma(3)

~ Raya36(51), geraintm(27), callforjudgement(75)

Looker(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(36), Looker(17)

callforjudgement(1)

~ Frogsterking(38)


Not Voting (1): ItalianoVD(63)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-22 17:44:55)

Get over yourself and play the game or replace out.

Do not tell other players to replace out.

My apologies @Looker. No harm meant.

[ItalianoVD]

@Frogsterking: Could you tell me why you went after geraintm so hard for suspecting you on Day 1, but did not even look Banana’s way when he voted for you in 218. I would think you would have said something to Banana, especially given how hard you did interact with geraintm for 769.

I was on tilt that morning.

Okay, I guess I should say why DIDN’T you go after Banana the same way you did geraintm?

[ItalianoVD]

@Raya: Your responses to my questions seem very townie looking at face value. I can’t know if this is your meta or not. Why do you feel it was okay to sacrifice shelly?

@callforjudgment: Why did you kill Not_Mafia?

@Frogsterking: Why did you not interact with the Banana/shelly slot the entire Day 1? And why was banana/shelly the better sacrifice than your other partner?

[ItalianoVD]

VOTE: Frogsterking

[ItalianoVD]

My questions were reaction questions. I wanted to see the reaction when throwing out assumptive questions.

@callforjudgment: Even though I said it’s possible that you are town given the potential theory found, it doesn’t mean I actually townread you. You are a paradox because I seem to scumread you and townread you at the same time and it’s weird.

You “defending” Frogster is not making me think better about you, in fact it’s having the opposite effect. Frog alluded to this already.

Here’s a theory of mine. If Frogster was alluding to there being 4 scum because he is a part of the team, he would actually know this information to be true.

And if the scumteam’s plan was for Frog to be responsible for 2 scum deaths (the ultimate towncred) because they know the last partner is distanced enough or townread enough to not be looked at. And given the fact that you, Raya, Gamma, Looker are being scumread etc. there are multiple places the scumteam can go that the town won’t question.

Is this a reach? Probably so. I know that the simplest answer is usually the right one: cfj & Raya are the last scum. Vote them off and the game is over, but these are the thoughts going on in my head. Having a confirmed scumflip is also playing into these thoughts.

If shelly flipped green then it wouldn’t be an issue.

[ItalianoVD]

What I’ve gathered from the ISO content is there is a pretty significant difference between

mentioning

banana/shelly and

interacting

with banana/shelly. I feel as though townies would want to sort the slot (if they didn’t townread a slot) so you’d probably see more back and forth interactions from townie players.

To me, “mentioning” that you strongly scumread a slot, but not saying why or not interacting with that slot to sort it out, etc. can be nai, but I’m not sure if it’s likely.

Frogster’s 527 seems like the historical “compliment strong player so strong player can view you as town.”

808 816 818 854 are reiterations of making people know he scumreads the banana/shelly slot. Sort of an allusion to towncred for Day 2 imo.

Mentions Raya in 527 when asking RCEnigma what he felt about Raya’s cfj vote. Mentions Raya in 662 mentioning his somewhat kinda scumread on her. This was still day 1 so it could be that if the shelly wagon didn’t work and the Raya one does, he can still say he scumread someone.

779

A theory that Taylor said in 939 has stuck with me where she says the possibility of Frogster being scum is because he got caught on the shelly wagon not thinking it would gain momentum the way it did. By the time it did, there was no way he could jump off (if his goal was not to bus) and not receive attention for it.

[ItalianoVD]

For the record, between the two (Raya and CFJ) I am more willing to vote for CFJ than Raya.

[ItalianoVD]

@Raya: Your responses to my questions seem very townie looking at face value. I can’t know if this is your meta or not. Why do you feel it was okay to sacrifice shelly?

I feel like from my perspective I usually come across quite townie when I actually try as town. I wish I could give this game that effort right now. As scum I tend to be pretty obvious, I come across as unnatural and it's easy to see through my plans. Of course scum always feel like their scummy so maybe I'm not as bad at scum as I think?

Without knowing how you actually play as both alignments it’s hard to know what you mean by “obvious” and “unnatural”. What differences are there or can be seen when you are “trying as town” as opposed to not trying?

I don't remember saying I was okay with sacrificing Shelly but there was a lot of suspicion on that slot so even if I read it as town I'd have been fine with the elimination. I did consistently read her as scummy-appearing town. It's still interesting how easy that elimination went through when there wasn't much of a push.

It may go against the grain, but I like this response. I was asking Raya this question as if she was scum sacrificing her scumbuddy and she answered it oblivious to the reasoning behind the question. If you are faking this response Raya, then kudos to you.

Yes Raya and Italiano are both motivated by fear of being incorrect.

Italiano is more specific in that his fear is in being incorrect about his scum reads, which is causing him to double take his reads continuously. Raya also appears to fear being incorrect about her scum read on Walter, with the opposite reaction of doubling down under pressure.

Raya, the issue I have with your slot is that you're not only absent from the game, you also appear significantly guarded in your thoughts and feelings. Being busy explains the absence but not necessarily the guardedness.

I think appearing guarded in this lobby is quite a feat, because I don't think this is the most trusting group of people in the world.

Fear of being incorrect is not it at all. I could be wrong, but that doesn’t motivate my actions. The evidence of the shelly wagon and the interactions everyone had with that slot is pretty telling. Shelly is a confirmed flip so I want to use that information as the foundation for where I go. I don’t want to speculate, because I don’t have to.

[ItalianoVD]

What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

maybe youll stop blatantly rolefishing or youll be the one at L-2?

[ItalianoVD]

@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

actually i was the first on the wagon and pushed for other people to join

This is true. And I think wanting the credit of a scumflip is nai imo, but taking her iso/interaction(s) into account and despite my earlier reservations, I’m gonna assume Taylor is towntelling here.

• Frogster/Italiano/Walter joined the shelly wagon in quick succession, effectively killing any chance that the geraint wagon would take off.

I was the leading wagon at the time (729). In 789 you, Walter, and Geraintm were tied at two votes. Shelly was at one vote because Frogster had switched to geraintm. Not sure how much momentum there potentially was for geraintm to become the leading wagon.

@

Italiano

/

Walter

: Did you discuss #820/#821 in your neighbour PT prior to voting? If so, what were you talking about?

No we didn’t discuss anything about the vote; it happened pretty organically. We’ve talked about a lot of stuff in there.

Walter (who may well have just been following Italiano and made it clear that he'd move back to the geraint counterwagon)

I must have missed it, but where did Walter make it clear that he’d move back to geraintm?

Meanwhile, Looker just looks bad from all this

How? Why?

Italiano's recent play has also been much more townish than his play earlier in the game (although he still needs to confirm his night action).

I will reveal my night action confirmation upon twilight. I feel as though I might be the nightkill, so I’ll get all my final thoughts out then. If I knew that I would survive the night then I’d just wait until Day 3 to reveal both night revelations and possibly clinch the game (along with the other potential town prs) through PoE, but I claimed pr and while the tfnn can’t directly hurt the scum team ultimately they need it gone.

The above analysis got me thinking about Looker again, and I'd rather be voting for a slot that hasn't done much townish and has been flying under the radar (even if it hasn't done much that's particularly scummy), rather than a slot I'm conflicted about. VOTE: Looker

Do you town or scumread Gamma?

@Raya: Your responses to my questions seem very townie looking at face value. I can’t know if this is your meta or not. Why do you feel it was okay to sacrifice shelly?

I feel like from my perspective I usually come across quite townie when I actually try as town. I wish I could give this game that effort right now. As scum I tend to be pretty obvious, I come across as unnatural and it's easy to see through my plans. Of course scum always feel like their scummy so maybe I'm not as bad at scum as I think?

Without knowing how you actually play as both alignments it’s hard to know what you mean by “obvious” and “unnatural”. What differences are there or can be seen when you are “trying as town” as opposed to not trying?

I don't remember saying I was okay with sacrificing Shelly but there was a lot of suspicion on that slot so even if I read it as town I'd have been fine with the elimination. I did consistently read her as scummy-appearing town. It's still interesting how easy that elimination went through when there wasn't much of a push.

It may go against the grain, but I like this response. I was asking Raya this question as if she was scum sacrificing her scumbuddy and she answered it oblivious to the reasoning behind the question. If you are faking this response Raya, then kudos to you.

Yes Raya and Italiano are both motivated by fear of being incorrect.

Italiano is more specific in that his fear is in being incorrect about his scum reads, which is causing him to double take his reads continuously. Raya also appears to fear being incorrect about her scum read on Walter, with the opposite reaction of doubling down under pressure.

Raya, the issue I have with your slot is that you're not only absent from the game, you also appear significantly guarded in your thoughts and feelings. Being busy explains the absence but not necessarily the guardedness.

I think appearing guarded in this lobby is quite a feat, because I don't think this is the most trusting group of people in the world.

Fear of being incorrect is not it at all. I could be wrong, but that doesn’t motivate my actions. The evidence of the shelly wagon and the interactions everyone had with that slot is pretty telling. Shelly is a confirmed flip so I want to use that information as the foundation for where I go. I don’t want to speculate, because I don’t have to.

Your solve is less accurate now than it was at the beginning of D2 fmpov. If the cause was not emotional then I'd guess you made a logical error during your analysis of the shelly flip.

How so?

[ItalianoVD]

Happened quick I see.

I didn’t feel comfortable compromising on Raya. As I said if you are scum Raya, it’s whatever, it’s a win-win, but I was leaning towards you being town.

[ItalianoVD]

Well as I said, I think I’m getting night killed so I sent my night ability to Nosferatu.

[ItalianoVD]

If I survive the night and my tfn target doesn’t die then great.

Should the bombshell be given, let me know.

[ItalianoVD]

If Nosferatu doesn’t confirm or isn’t here to confirm before the mod locks then see the comparisons of 756 and 989.

[ItalianoVD]

Oh I see you already did.

[ItalianoVD]

lol Italiano he confirmed it
I agree with nos we launch rce for d3

I don’t know. I’ve been townreading RCE and his hammer doesn’t really change my thoughts on him. He said/kinda did the same thing Day 1, so he kinda has precedent for it.

[ItalianoVD]

lol Italiano he confirmed it
I agree with nos we launch rce for d3

I don’t know. I’ve been townreading RCE and his hammer doesn’t really change my thoughts on him. He said/kinda did the same thing Day 1, so he kinda has precedent for it.

You're 100% dying so this co-sign doesn't help me not get elimmed tomorrow.

It seems regardless of the flip even.

100% huh? Okay.

If Raya is scum, then I think you’re fine: bussing your partner in this situation with the suspicion you have on you is scumscuicide, game over. I think you only get got if she flips green. People are being emotional right now and not thinking. It very much depends on the flip.

[ItalianoVD]

@Raya: I thought you didn’t seem to care. At least that’s what your responses sounded like pregame right. Why are you fighting?

[ItalianoVD]

*prehammer not pregame.

[ItalianoVD]

lol Italiano he confirmed it
I agree with nos we launch rce for d3

I don’t know. I’ve been townreading RCE and his hammer doesn’t really change my thoughts on him. He said/kinda did the same thing Day 1, so he kinda has precedent for it.

You're 100% dying so this co-sign doesn't help me not get elimmed tomorrow.

It seems regardless of the flip even.

100% huh? Okay.

If Raya is scum, then I think you’re fine: bussing your partner in this situation with the suspicion you have on you is scumscuicide, game over. I think you only get got if she flips green. People are being emotional right now and not thinking. It very much depends on the flip.

Scum doesn't need someone around defending me if Raya flips town so yeah. 100%

I agree. It’d be dumb for them not to.

[ItalianoVD]

Happy to be alive, I gotta say. I expected to be killed, but kinda wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t and here we are. I’m guessing the night kill happened for two reasons:

1) The scum were more scared of Taylor’s ability than mine or
2) I was off in my scumreads/not a threat to them right now.

I think we need to hit scum today and I think we can/will, but I’m pissed! Why’d we take out all the women in this town?

[ItalianoVD]

For what it's worth, I also have quite a strong scumread on Looker at this point. #1384 looks pretty bad after the Raya flip, in addition to #802…#825 looking bad after the shelly flip.

Not really. If he scumread her.

If the remaining scum aren't RCEnigma + Looker, I think Gamma and geraintm are the next most likely possibilities, but have no particular reason to think that either of them are scum.

I don’t think it’s either. Probably Gamma.

[ItalianoVD]

I received a Friendly Neighbour's PM last night (and I'm pretty sure I read it correctly).

Italiano is Town.

Did you really read it right?

[ItalianoVD]

Looker's vote for Raya is in #1384. It appears to be written as a lurker-vote, plus a bit of "agreeing with" Tayl0r and not with Walter. This is strange as a sheep vote given stated reads (he hadn't stated a read on either for a while, but #962 shows scepticism of Tayl0r and I can't see anything to contradict that read in between). Reads evolve, but if Looker had a strong enough townread on Tayl0r to trust her judgement, I would expect him to have mentioned it at some point.

Why? Different playstyles right? Not every player writes down everything they’re thinking.

Incidentally, Looker calls me scum in #1479 for

not

voting Raya, which is an interesting form of soft pressure in retrospect. #1416 contains similar pressure, although not directed specifically at me.

Why are you framing it this way? He never called you scum for not voting Raya; he didn’t call you scum at all actually. He pointed out the hypocrisy of your perceived callout of his vanity wagoning in 1469.

[ItalianoVD]

As far as I'm concerned I've voted scum correctly both days now while you have done the opposite. There is no similarity the way you're framing it.

You're trying to use AtE to guilt me into second guessing myself.

Hmm. Is it working?

After Raya's claim I was heavily expecting Raya to flip town

and would only have hammered her to prevent a nolynch.

A nolynch? You really believe that a nolynch was a real possibility? And something about the bolded doesn’t seem right. I’ll have to look back and see why I feel that way.

I believe Raya should have claimed much earlier than she did.

Huh? Why should she have claimed before getting to L-1?

[ItalianoVD]

I think we need to hit scum today and I think we can/will, but I’m pissed! Why’d we take out all the women in this town?

powereliminating the women to own the libs

I’m going to sleep, but just to get it out there...

Nosferatu, Walter, RCEnigma, geraintm, and Looker are in my townpool
Frog, Gamma, and CFJ are in my scum/lynchpool.
(PoE)

VOTE: Gamma

[ItalianoVD]

Happy to be alive, I gotta say. I expected to be killed, but kinda wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t and here we are.

I fully expected you to be killed too.

I’m guessing that because I was confirmed tfn and Taylor was unconfirmed, better to get rid of her in hopes of hitting a more powered role.

@italiano - why are your reads on looker and enigma so different to everyone else's?

Well I strongly townread SJReaver and even though Looker has played strangely, I don’t think it’s scum play. I’ve townread RC for a while now and the hammer of Raya didn’t make me think scum (although, that seems to be the consensus). Also his fakeclaim has been shown to be his meta and is not ai.

Here are my full reads:

TOWN

geraintm

- For almost all of Day 1 and part of Day 2 I could not get a read on geraintm. Never scumread him, but couldn’t hone in a solid read. As I started to see more of his reasoning and thoughts regarding events in the gamestate and when my own interactions with him increased I began feeling better about him. Geraintm has been the ghost vote/wagon since Day 1. Coincidentally along with Looker, it’s been Gamma, callforjudgment, and Frogster.

85%

Nosferatu

- After thinking Frog and Nos were possible scum partners earlier in the day I read Nosferatu as town late in the day for seemingly backing me up when I was going after callforjudgment even though I was the leading wagon at the time. I was hoping he was town by sending him my tfn message. I know it doesn’t make sense for scum!Nos to deny receiving the message, meaning it could be faked, but based on the late Day 1 response to my wagon along with the Day 2 posting, I’m thinking pretty strongly town here.

90%

Walter

- My strongest townread out of everyone. Nothing more needs to be said here.

100%

RCEnigma

- The two things RC is being scumread for I think are NAI and other than those two things I have not seen anyone say anything that could actually be considered scummy. I’ve pretty much townread RC since late Day 1 and as I said there hasn’t been anything I have found through his ISO that I could say would be worth voting him for.

85%

Looker

- SJReaver claimed she was scum. CFJ claimed that he thought her action was more likely to come from scum then town, although his sample size was only three (174). I disagreed then and I still do. I have only seen/experienced veteran, highly experienced players claim wolf while actually being wolf and that’s only been like 5 times maybe, which is also not a strong sample size. The other times I have seen it (much more often than 5) has been from regular villager or power role villager (seer, Angel, etc.). All in all I think no matter what alignment you are it’s simply a reaction test. Anyway, I’m saying all that to say:

~While it’s possible, I think/thought it was highly unlikely for scum!SJReaver to comfortably claim scum while being scum, especially being a new player.

~SJReaver as scum would not come after me as town because town!SJReaver knows I go hard after who I think is scum and would not risk getting tunneled. I don’t think 90, 91, and 92 comes from scum!SJReaver.

I don’t really have to say anything about Looker since it’s the same slot. I haven’t seen anything that has made me think otherwise on the slot. Though I was annoyed in 1312 it wasn’t a scumread.

85%

SCUM

Frogster

- I started to allude to my suspicion of Frogster in 1308. I wasn’t satisfied with the answers in 1314 and 1321. I perceived them as brush off answers. Then in 1322 changes the subject to pointlessly question Looker about his username. Again in 1366, I tried to get some type of response/reaction out of him and was again met with sarcasm (1369). And thus the reason for the vote in 1385. 1403 was an elaboration of 1385. I was ready to engage with him and understand what his thoughts were, but it seemed like he had/has something to hide so I’m good with voting him out and why he’s in my lynchpool.

90%

Gamma

- I’ve scumread Gamma since Day 2. Wasn’t able to really get a good read on him Day 1 as I forgot he was in the game although he was a top 3 poster. I think he might have been second in posting iirc. Posting that much and not being memorable had me scratching my head. After doing an iso on him Day 2 he seemed very much like a possible scum slot. I said this in 943 and then reiterated again in 1010 when I voted for him. I don’t see any changes to this read.

90%

CFJ

- I’ve been pretty suspicious of call from the beginning. His framing of events have had me scratching my head constantly. Not sure why he frames things the way he does. Sometimes in a weird way, sometimes outright false.

No one caught it but my read of callforjudgment in 381 was a parody of Trump’s description of everything being beautiful even though it’s not (read it again in Trump’s voice). Although it was delivered as a joke, it was a true read of how I thought his posts were too perfect. Townies post and do things that look scummy all the time. Call’s post were just too perfect and to me that seemed like he was trying too hard. Since Day 1, it’s been an up and down rollercoaster when trying to read him. Recently (mid-late Day 2) he has looked more town with his responses and interactions, but then he does something (1493) or says something (1589) that pushes him right back into my scumpool. I do admit, however, that callforjudgment is more of a PoE read than an actual scumread at the moment.

55%

[ItalianoVD]

1589 - i'll have to read that more later.

So, trying to look at votes over the past 2 days to see what I can make of things.
Day 1, the lynch went through with
Frogster
Me
italiano - assume town
Nosferatu
RCEnigma
TAylor < dead town
Walter - assume town

Day 2 went through with

CFJ
Looker
Nosferatu
RCEnimga
Taylor < dead town
Walter - assume town

the people on both lynches were
Nosferatu
RCEnigma
(TAylor)
Walter - assume town

[as an aside, Gamma was on neither, rest on 1 or dead]

SO, I have italiano in my town pile.
I have walter in my strong town pile

I ended Day 2 with Frogster as the person I would likely have been voting for, RCenigma as someone I didn't care for at all and their hammer just stank.

this leaves me considering Frogster - for being on the shelly lynch and their suspicious activity end of day 2
Nosferatu - on both lynches
RCenigma - on both lynches and the horrible lynch and everything else

as my top 3 suspicions.
Do people agree with that? I am generally a player watches what goes on and follows actions, and these are the people who have caused me to be suspicious.

Are you saying you think scum!Nosferatu and scum!RCEnima would be voting together? As partners?

[ItalianoVD]

I see what happened yesterday, there was a miscommunication in the tone of my posts because we are communicating through written word. The tone of my posts in my responses 1314, 1321, and 1369 was not sarcastic, I meant them literally. There wasn't a conscious choice to not interact with Banana D1 on my end and probably his as well, and I probably would never have noticed had you not pointed it out. Because of this there is no way to answer the questions you asked, the best I can do is answer in a general sense.

Nice try. I don’t think that’s what happened at all. I don’t think you had a legitimate answer for not interacting with that slot. Had you just come out and said so, I’m sure I would have probably given you the benefit of the doubt.

As I said, I was only somewhat suspicious, but I wasn’t scumreading you. I was just trying to figure it out so I wanted to engage, however, from your responses my perception was that you didn’t want to engage. (i.e. you have/had something to hide). Even after multiple attempts. 1366 was an assumptive question to you to see how you’d respond and still nothing. Then as Taylor and geraintm began pointing out other things about your play late in day 2, it just kept solidifying my suspicions.

Are you saying you think scum!Nosferatu and scum!RCEnima would be voting together? As partners?

i have frogster there too, and i think i have them coming off worse from my looking over the votes. RCenigma is my second, nosferatu i guess third but i think there should be a clear gap between rcenigma and nos.

I guess I’m asking you a hypothetical. Do you think both scumpartners would be on both wagons together back to back days like that? How likely do you think that is?

[ItalianoVD]

@Frogster: It seems like you’re grasping for straws at this point. CFJ is my scum partner now? Well then Nosferatu would have to be scum too since he confirmed my night action huh?

CFJ is now getting a full townread from me. CFJ, you do not have to say anything about anything and I commend you for being a cool guy.



My guess is someone tried to roleblock me while killing Taylor and was surprised that the tfn still was able to get through.

[ItalianoVD]

I think we really need to look at this again. Is RCE scummier than Gamma?

[ItalianoVD]

• Will RCE get to live through this day despite yesterday's wagons?

He should at least be able to defend himself, don’t you think?

---

Spoiler:

VOTE: CFJ
I am no longer asking. Answer my question. You are obstructing my ability to confirm a town slot as I see it. How does knowing what the FN result PM looks like help scum? I can make conclusions already but I want to be certain.

In addition,

Italiano

, do you have any modifier to your role? You don’t have to claim what it is, but knowing yes or no will help me determine whether I can piece together the situation.

The literal answer to your question is "no".

Please,

please

stop rolefishing. I didn't have a scumread on you before now, but I'm getting a pretty strong scumread now.

I have a question of my own: did you receive the same PM I did? (If you aren't sure at this point, then you didn't; if you did, it will be very obvious given the information I've disclosed so far.) This answer is highly important, because it will help me figure out why you are apparently acting in such a highly anti-town way.

But you didn't consider RCE's fakeclaim rolefishing? Or him asking who was in a hood?

But he didn’t ask who was in a hood, Taylor did.

In roughly but not strictly chronological order:

1. Meta for behavior of both alignments for each living player, to establish a baseline from which tells can be drawn. Must be done ASAP.
2. Self-reported psychometric analysis for each living player, placing us on the continuum of each category of OCEAN. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_ ... ity_traits If anyone is not familiar with the big five traits I can provide clarification for each one.
3. Self-reported answers to: a) How often we lie each day, b) Who we tend to lie to (strangers, acquaintances, family, etc.), c) Our lifetime experience playing mafia or related "social deduction" games.
4. Our self-reported beliefs and motivations during several key moments in the game, decided by our PR, in reverse chronological order.
5. Meta for behavior that appears in only one alignment for each player, or "signs" or "tells" of an alignment.
6. Analysis of the reads of every dead player.
7. Analysis of the interactions of every dead player.
8. Overall analysis of the choice of the night kill.
9. Analysis of

all

bandwagons that have occured (aka "VCA".)

Executing this plan will require all players to comply with answering the questions in steps 2, 3, and 4, and the pr to decide which moments are considered key for step 4. This means that even if a player disagrees with this approach or is choosing to lurk, they will still be able to comply with the plan in only a single post, as long as they answer the questions in 2, 3 and 4.

In order to finish each step with the appropriate depth and breadth to be effective and avoid overwhelming influence from maf in the given time frame (11 days), completing steps 1 and 5-9 will require at least four different players to participate. I will volunteer to participate.

There is also more meta information available on my playstyle I will volunteer: on epicmafia.com, after registering and searching for an account named AngryFrog, under "Recent Games" you will be able to skim read how I approach both alignments during every stage of the game, albeit a different medium of mafia, it will be more helpful than my history here which is sparse.

In addition, I will post an annotated list of references tomorrow morning or evening, which provide some evidence and/or instruction and/or inspiration on these steps I've suggested.

Sure, I’ll indulge you. We have plenty of time.

I tracked someone to you last night.

Oh did you now?

It was not Italiano.

Really

As such I’m figuring it was someone else who is also FN.

I have a theory.

Italiano, if you’re comfortable, I’d like if you could specify your full role, because I think the puzzle will snap into place with that information.

I’ve already done so, but why is your “information” dependent on knowing this?

FYI I’m not revealing anything I wouldn’t reveal at the end of this process anyways.

Getting your story straight so it’s believable?

Why would that prompt you to ask the questions you did, though? Tracking a player lets you see their target, but it doesn't tell you about other players with the same target; what made you reject the possibility that Italiano and someone else both targeted me?

Also, if you did decide that a non-Italiano Friendly Neighbour had targeted me, why push me to confirm that in thread? If they die N3 the information doesn't matter, and if they don't die N3 they'll be able to confirm themself to someone else. (Besides, they presumably confirmed themself to someone N1.)

Because my working theory means the other FN can’t do what you propose.

Can’t wait to hear it.

[ItalianoVD]

I don’t know why I’m up so stinking early but I am.

[ItalianoVD]

Key moments:

• RCEnigma’s
  Dayvig on Gamma

• Not_Mafia’s
  Day PT Cop claim on Banana

• Shelly’s
  Red flip

• The revealing of the
  Town Friendly Neighbor

• RCEnigma’s second
  Claim

• Confirmation
  of the Town Friendly Neighbor

• Raya’s
  Green flip

• Night 2’s
  Results

• The Town Friendly Neighbor’s
  Night Actions

[ItalianoVD]

I have been constantly going over my reads and seeing if there are chances they can be wrong. I’m actually curious to do this exercise to see if it causes me to change my reads based on evidence I didn’t have or perhaps missed.

[ItalianoVD]

Looking back on italianos claim at classified.
I think it is very odd gamma has no reaction at all like she already knew that. But there is nothing there at all. It is very strange.

Something I also found strange was this...

Yeah I was having a bit of a brain poop moment. In the moment

I didn't understand how Italiano was able to get a FN off

and forgot Nos had already confirmed him.

Read the (bolded). It doesn’t read like someone who is part of the uninformed majority. To me it reads as if Frogster knew that I was supposed to be blocked from using my ability and did not understand how the tfn message got to CFJ.

[ItalianoVD]

Yup

[ItalianoVD]

Hmm...from what I know the tracker’s role can’t be confirmed unless flipped.

I’m not that well versed in all the roles and I’m not sure how you’d balance them out.

Tracker??, tfnn, and pt cop vs. goon/roleblocker??/ascetic??

[ItalianoVD]

That’s L-1 Walter.

[ItalianoVD]

so you're explicitly confimring my theory is wrong, and you and walter arent' odd and even night FNs?

You’re asking “I won’t confirm yet” to answer your question?

[ItalianoVD]

Someone have intent to hammer?

[ItalianoVD]

Or should we discuss more?
VOTE: unvote

[ItalianoVD]

• Did Italiano think I was trying to quicklynch RCE?

Not at all. He was at L-3 and I didn’t want scum to come in and quichammer. This is going on the belief that he is town, which I believe to be true. However I’m wondering if this is uncaring townie or flaking scum. 77 hours without a post???

[ItalianoVD]

@geraintm

Votecount 3.3

Gamma Emerald(4)

~ Nosferatu(7), ItalianoVD(19), callforjudgement(36), WaltertheDunce10(15)

RCEnigma(2)

~ Looker(2), geraintm(11)

callforjudgement(1)

~ Gamma Emerald(15)


Not Voting (2): Frogsterking(40), RCEnigma(2)

With 9 alive it takes 5 to eliminate.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-07 19:26:08)

[ItalianoVD]

Oh he’s actually at 2 votes now. Hmm, I think being at L-2 is better, at least until we discuss these roles and try to understand what’s going on.

VOTE: Gamma

[ItalianoVD]

@Gamma: I know you’ve asked me a few questions and I’ll feel better about answering them if you can answer these for me. And these are not traps or assumptive at all.

- You mentioned that you were checking people somewhat visible but without claimed active powers. Did Not_Mafia who also faked a pr ping you at all. And on Day 2, Taylor was hinting at a pr along with RCEnigma’s second claim. Walter never hinted at anything. I know it’s probably WIFOM, I’m just trying to understand the thought process here.

- Do you feel the suspicion on you has been scum driven? Meaning, you have been getting scumread for a good part of the game and I would have to look back to see where it started, but do you feel your suspicion/scumreads are legitimate/fair or illegitimate/unfair?

[ItalianoVD]

• That ItalianoVD thought scum would quickhammer RCE at L-3 but not Gamma Emerald at L-2 is curious to me.

Oh yeah makes sense. Well I think RCEnigma is town and Gamma is scum at the moment so I don’t/didn’t think Gamma would be quickhammered.

I’m trying to sort this tracker thing right now.

[ItalianoVD]

Looker over here throwing a wrench into everything. Nosferatu/callforjudgment scumteam. What on earth?

[ItalianoVD]

Could the scum have more power roles than just goons? Like roleblocker or cop? Tracker would then be balanced? Yes? No?

[ItalianoVD]

Okay, makes sense. Thanks for that.

[ItalianoVD]

I think I may have been blocked unless I can be confirmed. If not then roleblocker is there.

[ItalianoVD]

It was Frogster and 4 scum seems unlikely based on what others have said. I’m inclined to believe it’s more like what CFJ stated.

I entirely ignored the second question oops
I haven't paid attention to who has been pushing me, I recall frogster doing so d1/d2, as well as RCE during d1 at least, beyond that I don't really have a good head on that, and I have an even worse concept of whose pushes on me look good or bad

How long have you been playing?

[ItalianoVD]

There’s a few problems with your claim. You are currently voting for callforjudgment and you said you are leaning towards scumreading Walter correct? At the very least if you think Walter is scum and callforjudgment is town, what possible scum role could/would there be where scum is tracked to town and a nightkill death is not the result? Alternatively what possible scum role could/would there be where scum is tracked to their partner? To go further what possible town role could there be where town is tracked to scum and a guilty is NOT revealed? If the possibilities you are trying to get at is at all possible than why wouldn’t Walter reveal a guilty of scum!callforjudgment?

Weren’t you scumreading Walter earlier? If you are the tracker why didn’t you track him and if you did track him, while thinking he is scum, then why isn’t the so called target dead?

[ItalianoVD]

Actually scratch that first scenario as I just realized that that would be the roleblocker or rolecop.

[ItalianoVD]

Hammer outside of Gamma today, and figure out a way to confirm/deny his role.

Only way to confirm/deny the role is to flip.

[ItalianoVD]

• Why does ItalianoVD think a Nosferatu/CFJ scumteam is so bizarre? And why wouldn't he just explain?

Well you threw out the possibility that they are a possible scum team. I don’t think so. It’s not up to me to convince you why they’re not, you have to convince me why they are.

[ItalianoVD]

I am assuming italiano knows more than me, about cfj and Nosferatu, because I cannot see a known reason why they cannot be scum

I know nothing more about them than you do. Maybe my perception of events were off, but then someone needs to let me know why and in what way. Back to you Looker.

[ItalianoVD]

Walter for real how much have you suspected that Italiano is scum in this game?

Lol, we did actually talk about this, because we both thought the other was scum. Enough has happened to make us believe we are right for trusting each other.

The playerlist is getting smaller so tracker will have higher chances of hitting a guilty. Especially being a a tracker that is already outted, he can just share his guilty with the rest of town and get the scum lynched. That means he should draw either the night kill or the role block.

When was it established that we have a roleblocker?

[ItalianoVD]

• Why does ItalianoVD think a Nosferatu/CFJ scumteam is so bizarre? And why wouldn't he just explain?

Well you threw out the possibility that they are a possible scum team. I don’t think so. It’s not up to me to convince you why they’re not, you have to convince me why they are.

Occam’s Razor.

[ItalianoVD]

Italiano, what do you think of my Walter, geratim, gamma theory?

Walter is in my neighborhood and I am thinking very highly that he is not scum, however, if he is, it’s probably one of the best scum plays I’ve ever seen.

I already believe Gamma is probably scum, but what I’m questioning and what doesn’t make sense is how scum!gamma would know to “track” Walter to callforjudgment? The only way that’s possible is if all three of them (Gamma, Walter, & callforjudgment) are scum together.

Geraintm I don’t see either. I believe he is town, based on the feel of his posts and interactions.

In any event, if any of the players I am townreading at the moment turn out to be scum then I don’t mind losing. If someone can make me think otherwise because of something I missed or because I missed something then I’d be willing to listen.

[ItalianoVD]

Well my scumteam is Frogster and Gamma.

Spoiler:

Here are my full reads:

TOWN

geraintm

- For almost all of Day 1 and part of Day 2 I could not get a read on geraintm. Never scumread him, but couldn’t hone in a solid read. As I started to see more of his reasoning and thoughts regarding events in the gamestate and when my own interactions with him increased I began feeling better about him. Geraintm has been the ghost vote/wagon since Day 1. Coincidentally along with Looker, it’s been Gamma, callforjudgment, and Frogster.

85%

Nosferatu

- After thinking Frog and Nos were possible scum partners earlier in the day I read Nosferatu as town late in the day for seemingly backing me up when I was going after callforjudgment even though I was the leading wagon at the time. I was hoping he was town by sending him my tfn message. I know it doesn’t make sense for scum!Nos to deny receiving the message, meaning it could be faked, but based on the late Day 1 response to my wagon along with the Day 2 posting, I’m thinking pretty strongly town here.

90%

Walter

- My strongest townread out of everyone. Nothing more needs to be said here.

100%

RCEnigma

- The two things RC is being scumread for I think are NAI and other than those two things I have not seen anyone say anything that could actually be considered scummy. I’ve pretty much townread RC since late Day 1 and as I said there hasn’t been anything I have found through his ISO that I could say would be worth voting him for.

85%

Looker

- SJReaver claimed she was scum. CFJ claimed that he thought her action was more likely to come from scum then town, although his sample size was only three (174). I disagreed then and I still do. I have only seen/experienced veteran, highly experienced players claim wolf while actually being wolf and that’s only been like 5 times maybe, which is also not a strong sample size. The other times I have seen it (much more often than 5) has been from regular villager or power role villager (seer, Angel, etc.). All in all I think no matter what alignment you are it’s simply a reaction test. Anyway, I’m saying all that to say:

~While it’s possible, I think/thought it was highly unlikely for scum!SJReaver to comfortably claim scum while being scum, especially being a new player.

~SJReaver as scum would not come after me as town because town!SJReaver knows I go hard after who I think is scum and would not risk getting tunneled. I don’t think 90, 91, and 92 comes from scum!SJReaver.

I don’t really have to say anything about Looker since it’s the same slot. I haven’t seen anything that has made me think otherwise on the slot. Though I was annoyed in 1312 it wasn’t a scumread.

85%

SCUM

Frogster

- I started to allude to my suspicion of Frogster in 1308. I wasn’t satisfied with the answers in 1314 and 1321. I perceived them as brush off answers. Then in 1322 changes the subject to pointlessly question Looker about his username. Again in 1366, I tried to get some type of response/reaction out of him and was again met with sarcasm (1369). And thus the reason for the vote in 1385. 1403 was an elaboration of 1385. I was ready to engage with him and understand what his thoughts were, but it seemed like he had/has something to hide so I’m good with voting him out and why he’s in my lynchpool.

90%

Gamma

- I’ve scumread Gamma since Day 2. Wasn’t able to really get a good read on him Day 1 as I forgot he was in the game although he was a top 3 poster. I think he might have been second in posting iirc. Posting that much and not being memorable had me scratching my head. After doing an iso on him Day 2 he seemed very much like a possible scum slot. I said this in 943 and then reiterated again in 1010 when I voted for him. I don’t see any changes to this read.

90%

CFJ

- I’ve been pretty suspicious of call from the beginning. His framing of events have had me scratching my head constantly. Not sure why he frames things the way he does. Sometimes in a weird way, sometimes outright false.

No one caught it but my read of callforjudgment in 381 was a parody of Trump’s description of everything being beautiful even though it’s not (read it again in Trump’s voice). Although it was delivered as a joke, it was a true read of how I thought his posts were too perfect. Townies post and do things that look scummy all the time. Call’s post were just too perfect and to me that seemed like he was trying too hard. Since Day 1, it’s been an up and down rollercoaster when trying to read him. Recently (mid-late Day 2) he has looked more town with his responses and interactions, but then he does something (1493) or says something (1589) that pushes him right back into my scumpool. I do admit, however, that callforjudgment is more of a PoE read than an actual scumread at the moment.

55%

[ItalianoVD]

@Titus

[ItalianoVD]

@Walter/Italiano, Did your hood exist pregame or was it created?

From what I assume, the hood was already in existence before I got my pm from the mod.

[ItalianoVD]

If Gamma does flip as the tracker then my confusion about this would have been eliminated. I hope he just makes it easy and flips scum.

[ItalianoVD]

Yeah, same.

[ItalianoVD]

Geraintm you stinker. Great game. That last post from you convinced me you were scum. My bad Frogster.

@Titus: I’m gonna have to learn VCA because you had it down.

I really enjoyed myself. This was a great game and a great group of players. Can’t wait to discuss it.

[ItalianoVD]

I can say Geraintm definitely surprised me. My reads were otherwise spot on save for Frogster, sorry again man.

[ItalianoVD]

So sorry, forgot to thank you for running it George and Datisi and also a shoutout to Mastina for the setup. Had a lot of fun.