Yellowstone

[Marky Mark]

Also that talk has been going on since D1 so you talking about it now is a tad late tbh.

What talk? I don't quite follow, sorry.

[Marky Mark]

Also that talk has been going on since D1 so you talking about it now is a tad late tbh.

What talk? I don't quite follow, sorry.

Well my theory of you being scum with DGB is based on PR mechanics (if DGB didn't block the N1 kill, then either scum no-killed N1 or the kill on toog WAS the scum kill and JV fakeclaimed to cover it) so clearly that talk wasn't happening on D1

[Marky Mark]

@MarkyPoo, from memory you acted incredibly nonchalant regarding my vigi claim as if you expected the claim due to some form of TMI. I also remember a few weak ass interactions with Piggy that seemed like distancing when I re-read around my claim. I'm not gonna push on the activity thing as holiday's is a fine excuse although I feel it's been relatively all game which is a much different tone and energy whacker than I expect from town!you.

Yeah I mean the vig claim seemed initially fairly legit to me as would be risky for scum to claim vig and risk a CC from a town vig.

Thinking this through tho, this is slightly flawed logic as if DGB is scum and a DGB/JV scumteam NKed Toog N1 then they would know that there had likely been no vig shot N1 anyway as there was only one death overnight (any vig would have had to not shot or cross-killed toog)

Like I don't inherently SR you individually JV, it is more a case of if DGB is scum here, then you would make most sense as a buddy, as otherwise DGB would've had to no-kill N1, which seems suboptimal for them.

I mean I tried to push piggy for info/reads to help me sort that slot, and I was mild townreading them prior to the DGB guilty on them. I'm not really sure that's distancing, altho I can see how it looks bad that I light TRed them and then they turned out to be scum.

Activity wise, this game has consisted of the last week of work before Christmas, which was a bit crazy, and then the Christmas holidays. I have not been as active as I would've liked, and for that you collectively have my apologies

[Marky Mark]

@MarkyPoo

I haven't actually thought about DGB scum = Jacko scum but I think that's actually only half correct bc if DGB scum, the Pig kill wasn't blocked. They used it on Toog. Jacko claimed toog. They might've doublekilled

This is possible BUT a cross-kill seems unlikely as Toog was being widely SRed D1. Doesn't make sense for scum to NK here imo as its an easy miselim target for them UNLESS they needed to be able to frame it as a vig kill.

In this theory, the JV vig fakeclaim is a tool to give you an excuse for the kill N1 while still being able to frame the 'blocked' kill on pig, so that they can be bussed for towncred. There has to be an explanation for the night kill (ie they were vigged) that still lets you pretend to have blocked scum

[Marky Mark]

so to finish on the half correct thing, if dgb was jacko's partner and wanted to prove the claim, they would've outed earlier and not waited that long?

There wasn't any real pressure on JV tho, so there was no imperative to 'clear' them

[Marky Mark]

@Noraa - you say that I've flipped my read on you, but tbh I was chiming with you all through yesterday. I pointed out some LAMIST stuff around twilight iirc, but that doesn't mean I was hard SRing you, just that I was pointing out stuff as I saw it. If anything, I held people to account when they were trying to push for your lim over G's. I just feel on a pretty similar page to you with a lot of stuff, eg you pointing out how JV had been flailing after I suggested the DGB/JV idea

[Marky Mark]

[7]Horsewoman:

JacksonVirgo, Momrangal, Toogeloo, DrippingGoofball, Guillotina, Mathblade, Marky Mark

[6]AGamblingPig:

Flea the Magician, Marky Mark, Infinity 32, Momrangal, JacksonVirgo, DrippingGoofball

[5]Guillotina:

Marky Mark, Infinity 324, Mathblade, Momrangal, Noraa

--

Usually VCA is EVERY VC after a scum-flip but eh it's fine I'll just do these. Horsewoman wagon should have at least one scum on it and the only possible scum is DGB and Marky Mark. So they're in a 1v1 or it was a full-town wagon which in post-game would be hilarious. On Piggy's, DGB's vote here solidifes my TR on them I think, if they both were scum bussing each other with a "red-check" I would have assumed they would have tried voting earlier to gain the most cred, but no they voted last which doesn't really seem like it's fueled by an agenda. DGB/Mark/Infinity all on this wagon. Gills was a stupid wagon over Vax and I have to look back to see who it was that saw my logic as to why the chances that Gills was a blocked kill, accepted it as true, yet voted there anyway over Vax. I think it was Markypoo but could be either Noraa/Infinity as well. Mark/Infinity/Noraa. Vax being gone out of all of them is frustrating but what can you do.

Mark is on all three wagons, Infinity and DGB on two, Noraa on one and Vax on nuthin'. I am seeing a Vax/Mark scum-team now to be completely honest. Mark, can you give your thoughts on the VCA as well? Same with anyone tbh.

-Trying to imply I am in a 1v1 with DGB and then loudly TRing DGB is a cheeky way to try and convince people to lim me
-Ref the pig wagon, DGB literally came out with a guilty on pig, so the fact they voted later rather than earlier is not a towntell, as others have pointed out
-Guills was an inspired wagon as they were stretching increasingly over the game (eg consider their theory that the masons were w/w late yesterday). I may have been wrong but I don't think the wagon was a poor choice by any stretch, and I was genuinely surprised to see them flip green
--Yeah, I totally take the point that DGB blocking correctly twice in a row

seemed less likely than I initially thought

, but it still seemed the liklier option, as Guills' play was scummier than vax's. Less likely than I initially thought != unfeasible
- I don't quite follow your point about "Vax being gone out of all of them"

[Marky Mark]

Horsewoman wagon should have at least one scum on it and the only possible scum is DGB and Marky Mark. So they're in a 1v1 or it was a full-town wagon which in post-game would be hilarious.

Btw - You voted HW for the majority of the day. I went there late D1 as a compromise as I couldn't get my top SR (Toog) elimed (clearly I was miles off on this one too) so it is somewhat rich that you are trying to pin me being on that wagon as me being scum when you'd been parked there yourself. If the DGB/JV theory is true, then that would be 2 scum on the wagon, which I could believe

[Marky Mark]

@Noraa - you say that I've flipped my read on you, but tbh I was chiming with you all through yesterday. I pointed out some LAMIST stuff around twilight iirc, but that doesn't mean I was hard SRing you, just that I was pointing out stuff as I saw it. If anything, I held people to account when they were trying to push for your lim over G's. I just feel on a pretty similar page to you with a lot of stuff, eg you pointing out how JV had been flailing after I suggested the DGB/JV idea

yeah I didn't like that stuff at twilight.

I don't think you did ever explain how you thought I was telling TPRs what to do, so I hope you can see how it looked liked busywork fmpov

[Marky Mark]

acko/DBG/pig is a paranoia team.

I would have agreed with this at daystart, but JV's reaction does make me wonder if I have touched a nerve

All town wagons are possible, there's no particular reason why scum have to be on a town wagon except for probability. If no scum is in danger, scum actually want to be off the wagon.

Exactly. DGB/JV being scum would mean that Vax/G yesterday (which at the time seemed to 90% have 1+ scum within them) would actually be T/T, which makes the fact that the G wagon would be all town less unusual

[Marky Mark]

Way to deflect attention from you onto someone else

Lolwat? I was just replying to noraa's comment and explaining the reasoning behind why I made the post that they are calling out as sus.

[Marky Mark]

So the quickhammer yesterday really threw me, as I just felt we were starting to get somewhere with that discussion.

I was TRing Noraa before, so fmpov this day comes down to whether their hammer was a genuine mistake (in which case most likely scumteam is DGB/JV) or a calculated play (in which case the scumteam is them and one other).

I'm not sure how noraa is trying to fit me as being a scumbuddy of DGB here - as I explained yesterday, if DGB is scum then JV makes the most sense as a partner, as it would explain the N1 kill. Otherwise, scum no-killed N1, which seems unlikely and suboptimal.

[Marky Mark]

I will talk zero logic at this point honestly. Yesterday was a huge misstep for me(the hammer was bullshit) but Mom knew vax was town. She told us the solve. Our job is as easy as can be.

This is bad and I think you know better . Afaik, the masons shared all their results with us, so you have just as much info as they did. Take accountability for your SRs and make a case if you actually think I'm scum here.

--pedit 1 -> Noraa just proves my point here
--pedit 2 -> which two? I am SRing you for your hammer vote yesterday, not your initial vote today

[Marky Mark]

Incidentally, Mom (while a competent player) clearly isn't omniscient, as she was the third seat on the wagon on town yesterday.

[Marky Mark]

Incidentally, Mom (while a competent player) clearly isn't omniscient, as she was the third seat on the wagon on town yesterday.

She knew it was town all of yesterday

Aside from the point that Mom is not infalliable and has no more information than you, this simply isn't true.

Noraa
Marky Mark
DrippingGoofball
JacksonVirgo
Vaxkiller

JV

Nora
Infinity
Vax

Mark
DBG

I'm also not expecting anyone else to look at anyone else but vax and even if I manage to convince to get another lynch, people will still look at Vax tomorrow

She had Vax as the bottom of her null pile

[Marky Mark]

This is, however, a tangent. If you think I am scum then make a case so that we can talk through it and scrutinise your logic.

[Marky Mark]

Theory 1: Noraa + 1 other

-TPRs: 2x mason+, 1x Roleblock, 1x Fruit Vend, 1x N1 vig, 1x PGO = 5/10 townies (4/10 if DGB or JV is the buddy)
-(known) Scum PRs: N/A (If DGB is the buddy then maaaybe there could be a scum RB)
-Scum on HW wagon: 0-1 (0 unless JV or DGB is the partner)
-Scum on pig wagon: 1 (ie any possible partner of Noraa was on the wagon)
-Scum on Guillo wagon: 1-2 (2 unless scum was DGB or JV)
-Scum on Vax wagon: 1-2 (2 unless DGB is the buddy)
-Notes: This theory is mainly based on the quickhammer yesterday, as up to that point I really felt like Noraa was on the same page as me

Theory 2: DGB + JV

-TPRs: 2x mason+, 1x Fruit Vend, 1x PGO = 4/10 townies
-(known) Scum PRs: N/A (altho could speculate that DGB is scum RB)
-Scum on HW wagon: 2
-Scum on pig wagon: 2
-Scum on Guillo wagon: 0 (caveat that in this theory, both leading wagons were on town)
-Scum on Vax wagon: 1
-Notes: If DGB is scum then JV as buddy seems by far the most likely as it would provide an excuse for the N1 kill while still letting DGB set up the 'Guilty' on pig to bus for towncred

--pedit: @Noraa noted, I don't think I was, or certainly had not intention of telling them to, but people are welcome to ISO me and make up their own minds

[Marky Mark]

^ Just trying to get my thoughts straight on which theory is better supported by the facts.

Ignore the random pedit at the end of the post - I based this off a similar one I was doing yesterday when the main theories were Vax/1 other and DGB/JV but the thread got locked as I was about to paste it due to the quickhammer. I saved it in my notes PT for reference and must have copied the pedit across when I copied the format

[Marky Mark]

^ Just trying to get my thoughts straight on which theory is better supported by the facts.

Ignore the random pedit at the end of the post - I based this off a similar one I was doing yesterday when the main theories were Vax/1 other and DGB/JV but the thread got locked as I was about to paste it due to the quickhammer. I saved it in my notes PT for reference and must have copied the pedit across when I copied the format

[Marky Mark]

The quickhammer was v sus at the end of yesterday from Noraa, but I was still slightly leaning towards DGB/JV being the solve, especially as JV seemed to overeact somewhat when I raised the theory yesterday. After seeing Noraa try to sheep Mom to push DGB/me today rather than owning her suspicions, I am less sure of myself.

[Marky Mark]

I'm going to head to bed shortly. Hopefully this game will still be here in the morning

[Marky Mark]

Morning all

I swear at this point, you are just waiting for me to go to bed so that you can churn out ~10 pages in my absence

I'm just about to tune in to virtual church (does this count as LAMIST?) but will catch up etc afterwards

[Marky Mark]

Right, I've had a bit of a read up - the weak visitor claim from JV is certainly a plot twist :O

The DGB/JV Theory

-The weak visitor claim cements the strong associatives between JV and DGB
--I had already explained that if DGB is scum then JV is the likely partner and claimed the N1 vig to explain away the kill on toog, as the alternative is that they No-Killed N1
--But now, added to this, if DGB is scum then they would have to be asetic or JV is lying about their visitor night action
--Looking the other way around, if JV is scum then DGB is probably scum too because otherwise why would JV fight so hard to save a townie in ELO?

-3582/3587 are JV trying to keep their options open for an elim or me or infin today, despite the general consensus seeming to be that either Noraa or DGB is scum. This logic only makes sense if JV feels there is a feasible chance of me and infin being the scumteam, which isn't really a vibe I'm getting from them.

-I can see how JV might feel that Noraa was stretching a bit over DGB not mentioning the gating of its RB role in 2405 as that particular post was relating to the nature of their RB action, but in a more general sense it is weird that they didn't mention the gated side of it until after it came into effect. This has very similar overtones of Flavour Leaf magically reinventing his FN fakeclaim in the recent Bending mini, which 4/5 of the current plist will remember.

The Noraa + 1 other theory

-As others have said, the unvote in 3491 is odd if Noraa believes that DGB must be scum
-I get the flip-flopping of reads in ELO as it is natural to be a little bit paranoid, but repeatedly using Mom's reads as a crutch without justifying them with their own logic is sus here. If you SR me Noraa then why not make a quick 2 minute case with a couple of rough bullet points, so that the rest of the town can decide whether they think you have a point, and I can respond to you? I mean, based on my not-too-great townplay this game, I could literally make a case on myself in 2 minutes, so it ought not to be too hard for someone who allegedly thinks that I am scum

Key questions

I'm gonna mull over these, but please feel free to chip in:
-Why does JV sit on the weak visitor info until today?
-Why does DGB neglect to mention the gated aspect of her role until after the event?
-3473 sets out JV's theory on why DGB can't be scum due to setup spec. I need to go back over this and fathom how reasonable this seems
-I think we can all agree that scum either no-killed N2 or cross-killed flea to make sure the PGO did its work but which theory does this fact make more sense with?

[Marky Mark]

Spotted this gem when catching up too

The quickhammer was v sus at the end of yesterday from Noraa, but I was still slightly leaning towards DGB/JV being the solve, especially as JV seemed to overeact somewhat when I raised the theory yesterday. After seeing Noraa try to sheep Mom to push DGB/me today rather than owning her suspicions, I am less sure of myself.

good. handing out free town passes is a very bad scum strategy.

Lolwhat? Are you trying to shade me here for saying that you quickhammering yesterday is sus?

[Marky Mark]

My current thoughts on SRs and probable scumteams

So DGB makes a very good point that people do seem to have a tendency to look past Noraa's sus behaviour. Noraa is definitely a very cutesy player (and I like that about her!) but she is also very capable, which is why I can ABSOLUTELY see the quickhammer yesterday as coming from scum as her cutesy persona gives her more license to get away with it

If Noraa hadn't quickhammered yesterday, I would've voted DGB by now, as that theory makes way more sense to me in terms of fitting the facts of the game (eg, consider infin's excellent point of the risk of scum!noraa no-killing n2 - the only player who benefits from no-killing n2 is the claimed RB, as they can then use this to paint a guilty on someone who they know is town).

As it stands, I am bamboozled. This discussion is healthy though so we should definitely let it run its course before putting votes down anywhere. In particular, I am keen to think thorough the setup spec stuff more and also hear from JV and DGB on why they late-claimed their full roles.

[Marky Mark]

Tbqh I'm leaning slightly towards DGB/JV being the solve because it just seems so risky for a noraa + 1 other to no kill N2 and hope that DGB targets someone that they can then frame. If Noraa is town here, they have made this choice significantly harder because I will be kicking myself if I don't vote someone who openly quickhammered yesterday and they turn out to be scum.

[Marky Mark]

@JV - I've been thinking through some of your setup spec logic -> Some of it makes sense, but a fair chunk may sense fypov if you are town here, but doesn't hold up when looking at it as a third party as I don't know that you are town, and hence cannot rely on your vig claim being legit. I've added some thoughts below - let me know what you think

Why DGB is mechnically Town.

• If a protective were to claim, Roleblocker would be a scum-claim yet there is no protective meaning that Roleblocker makes perfect sense as the "protective" and also weakening the powers of the Masons pre-claim.
  
  I agree that there is an element of risk to this - due to the order that people claimed in, there was a low chance of a RB CC from another player as most people had claimed iirc, but yeah if there was a doc that had claimed VT then this would not be a direct CC but would put DGB in hot water
  
  
• Claiming Roleblocker D2 is almost never coming from a scum!Roleblocker. And in the case of a bus, why would scum no-kill or claim Roleblocker knowing that one either ALREADY EXISTS and blocked their buddy or a protective exists and claiming roleblocker destroys the utility for their role and also creates a 1v1 with the Town PR.
  
  FMPOV, if DGB is scum then it is likely with you, so this doesn't hold up as if you NKed pig then there is no missing kill
  
  
• What Monrangal said, a gambit there from that early on is so impractical it's likely never even a possibility to begin with. They would have needed there be no protective/roleblocker, somehow a reason for Town to think that it's happened via a Town/Scum interaction (aka roleblock) and then claim the perfect role in order to fit into the PR claims that haven't even happened yet. The ONLY advocation for scum!DGB is they killed Toogoloo N1 alongside myself and that's just stupid.
  
  Again, fmpov, they do not need to have cross-killed toog if you are scum with them and NKed toog then fakeclaimed vig to explain it
  
  
  
  As a sidenote, if you and DGB are town here then that is 6 TPRs of 10 townies, which seems like a lot. Is 6 TPRs common in mini themes? I haven't played enough to know how realistic that is

In other words. Anyone within Infinity/MarkyPoo/Noraa should know the other two are scum. And Noraa is almost confirmed scum at this point meaning Mark/Infinity are at a TvS.

[Marky Mark]

I skimmed marks posts. It really doesn't look good. The only good thing is that he isn't saying infinity could be scum which is +town points cuz I do think scum here push the vt. After I've said this multiple times, its prolly no longer the case but anyways.

Marks post basically says "DGB could be scum. Jacko could be scum. Noraa could be scum"

Its like "ok great well that was very helpful"

You are welcome to actually read my posts fully before drawing your conclusions

You keep shading me without actually making a substantive argument as to why - I'd actually like to know why you seem to be seeing me as scum here (unless you are just sheeping mom) so that I can try and sort you between being a misguided townie or being an openwolfing scum based on your view of the gamestate :S

Your summary of my post is also slightly misleading - I am advocating two possible theories -> One with you as scum + 1 other and one with a DGB/JV scumteam

Yes, I am undecided right now but that's just me being honest with where I'm at. Put yourself in my shoes here -> You have a theoretical solve (DGB/JV) that makes sense and then your top TR (outside of Mom) goes and quickhammers a TPR. Are you seriously teling me that this wouldn't leave you a bit stumped too?

--pedit -> will go over the analysis from DGB in a bit

[Marky Mark]

Yo @DGB - before you go would you mind explaining why you didn't initially claim the gated part of your role and only announced it once the gate had been reached (as it were)?

As you will know this is the gambit Flavour Leaf pulled with his FN FakeClaim in Bending so I hope you can understand why I am somewhat sus of people modifying their claim later down the line

[Marky Mark]

I mean you've made it clear that I am part of your solve so I would like to understand why you SR me here so that I can get my head around how your view of the game. I get that you want to focus on DGB now, but clearly your SR on DGB has to fit into a wider solve, given that there are 2 scum left

[Marky Mark]

Thanks for the explanation noraa

A couple of things that are on my mind:

I skimmed marks posts. It really doesn't look good.

The only good thing is that he isn't saying infinity could be scum which is +town points cuz I do think scum here push the vt. After I've said this multiple times, its prolly no longer the case but anyways.

Marks post basically says "DGB could be scum. Jacko could be scum. Noraa could be scum"

Its like "ok great well that was very helpful"

Mainly poe tbh.

I find Infinity more towny than you. That is really the only reason you are in my SRs.

(My underlines above, for emphasis)
1.) You seem to actively call my posts sus in the top quote (see my underline) but then go on to say in the bottom quote that you just have me in your POE due to not TRing me as much as JV/infin. This seems like a mild contradiction here but I don't want to misrep you. Help me understand - are you actively SRing me or not?
2.) You came into this day with me in your solve based on what Mom had said and you now have me in your solve due to POE & being a weaker TR than JV/Infin. Have you moved on from basing your solve on Mom's one?
3.) Given how simple your explanation is for having me in your solve, why have you waited so long to put it out there given how frequently you were asked for it?
4.) Ref the explanation itself - if DGB is scum then JV is lying about being a weak visitor (unless there was some funky role modifier on DGB) so how am I more likely than JV to be DGB's scum buddy?

[Marky Mark]

I skimmed as I have to work. Mark I held back the claim because I didn’t want scum to make a claim based on my result as obviously if they didn’t the pool is of three instead of four.

I don't quite follow sorry? I'm probably being dense here, but why would you outing an inno on DGB affect what scum were claiming, esp as most slots had claimed by that point anyways?

[Marky Mark]

So I've had a plod through the VCs and tallied up DGB and Noraa's votes against the various groups of players. There's nothing massively illuminating that I have managed to glean from it (other than Noraa votes DGB a lot) but I figured I'd share it in case anyone else can see anything of interest in it.

All of DGB's votes on conftown were split between Mom d1, where she was #2 on the wagon (I was #1) and Horse d1. Noraa's votes on conftown were more spread out and included Guillo d1, and then the Guillo and Vax wagons d3 and d4

Aggregated totals

Noraa

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
4 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 11

DGB

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 15

D1

Noraa

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
2 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 1

DGB

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3

D2

Noraa

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7

DGB

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6

D3

Noraa

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3

DGB

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4

D4

Noraa

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0

DGB

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2

[Marky Mark]

So I've had a plod through the VCs and tallied up DGB and Noraa's votes against the various groups of players. There's nothing massively illuminating that I have managed to glean from it (other than Noraa votes DGB a lot) but I figured I'd share it in case anyone else can see anything of interest in it.

All of DGB's votes on conftown were split between Mom d1, where she was #2 on the wagon (I was #1) and Horse d1. Noraa's votes on conftown were more spread out and included Guillo d1, and then the Guillo and Vax wagons d3 and d4

Aggregated totals

Noraa

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
4 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 11

DGB

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 15

D1

Noraa

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
2 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 1

DGB

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3

D2

Noraa

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7

DGB

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6

D3

Noraa

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3

DGB

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4

D4

Noraa

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0

DGB

On Conf Town | On Conf Scum | On the other | On me/jv/infin | No vote
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2

[Marky Mark]

I skimmed as I have to work. Mark I held back the claim because I didn’t want scum to make a claim based on my result as obviously if they didn’t the pool is of three instead of four.

I don't quite follow sorry? I'm probably being dense here, but why would you outing an inno on DGB affect what scum were claiming, esp as most slots had claimed by that point anyways?

As in if a protective doesn’t claim they’re clear, otherwise I could have been blocked and it’s less of a clear.

Ah right, so your theory is that if you claimed, then scum could've fake claimed they were some sort of a role that blocks or prevents yours, and that is why you didn't die as they targeted you?

--pedit1 @Noraa, well at least you're being honest

--pedit2 @Noraa I mean JV may subjectively come across as more genuine than me to you, but unless DGB flips some kinda scum PR that would prevent a weak who targets them from dying then can you not see that JV must be lying about weak visiting DGB if DGB!scum??

[Marky Mark]

If DGB flips something funky, I would consider Jacko could be scum.

Surely it's the opposite - if DGB is goon or 'standard' scum RB then JV must be lying about visiting them and surviving given his weak modifier?

[Marky Mark]

I skimmed as I have to work. Mark I held back the claim because I didn’t want scum to make a claim based on my result as obviously if they didn’t the pool is of three instead of four.

I don't quite follow sorry? I'm probably being dense here, but why would you outing an inno on DGB affect what scum were claiming, esp as most slots had claimed by that point anyways?

As in if a protective doesn’t claim they’re clear, otherwise I could have been blocked and it’s less of a clear.

Coming back to this because I think I may have struck something here. Consider this from Mom late D2

Noraa- camper
Marky Mark- camper
DrippingGoofball-???
Flea the Magician-???
AGamblingPig-???
Mathblade- ranger (mason)
Guillotina- camper
JacksonVirgo- N1 vig
Infinity 324- VT
Momrangal- mason
Vaxkiller-PGO

Two dead VT flips

Shortly after this Math claims mason, and we learn that flea is a Fruit Vendor. Ie, every slot had claimed by the end of D2, and the only ones being cagey about the extent of their powers were the masons.

JV - Who could possibly be fakeclaiming you if you had outed your N2 inno on DGB during D3, given that everyone had already claimed?

Also - did you get a result from the mod to confirm you had visited DGB, which would confirm you hadn't been RBed?

[Marky Mark]

Not every one claimed, specifically the one roles that would incriminate DGB were asked to not claim. Also I’m a Visitor not a checker so no I just know if I die or not.

OK, so which specific slots hadn't claimed fypov? As far as I can see from Mom's post, all of the alive slots other than Math and Flea had claimed, and Flea and Math claimed shortly after, so I'm not quite following.

Are you saying that you were concerned that one of the slots that had claimed VT would then fakeclaim protective and undermine your inno on DGB?

[Marky Mark]

Not every one claimed, specifically the one roles that would incriminate DGB were asked to not claim. Also I’m a Visitor not a checker so no I just know if I die or not.

OK, so which specific slots hadn't claimed fypov? As far as I can see from Mom's post, all of the alive slots other than Math and Flea had claimed, and Flea and Math claimed shortly after, so I'm not quite following.

Are you saying that you were concerned that one of the slots that had claimed VT would then fakeclaim protective and undermine your inno on DGB?

I was waiting for everyone to full claim for that reason yes, I didn’t want to give scum a reason to fake claim it more than they already would and me claiming would help force the clear away.

How would a protective fakeclaim undermine an inno on DGB? I guess at a push they could claim to have protected you but in the swing of things forcing scum to commit to a fakeclaim and getting crucial info out there on DGB's alignment (given how much of the D3/4 play was based around her claimed actions) is surely worth the risk of a scum fakeclaim muddying the waters somewhat?

--pedit I have no strong feelings on whether a town RB makes sense in this setup, although more generally, I do think that 6 PRs seems like a lot for town. Yes, I did see your post and Noraa and their contradictions when I was catching up, and have also read DGB's cases on them too. I mean noraa has made some contradictions and the quickhammer was v sus, but equally a JV/DGB scumteam makes more sense in terms of explaining the no-kill N2, in addition to the late claim changes being sus and 6 TPRs seeming like too many for town

[Marky Mark]

I am heading to bed shortly - still keen to hear from DGB why they neglected to mention the gated aspect of their PR until the gate had actually kicked in.
Night all, it's been a pleasure (as always)

[Marky Mark]

I haven't read up, I had a migraine today

@Mark: I don't think JV/DGB is possible because the setup wouldn't pass balance. Theoretically the other scum could be a roleblocker

So let's say DGB is scum here (as you seem to think). That would mean that they would have to have some unusual modifier or JV would be dead if telling the truth.

I can see arguments for a DGB/JV scumteam here (no kill N2 makes more sense if claimed RB is scum) or for Noraa (quickhammer d4) but I'm finding it hard to see DGB being scum here without JV. Who do you see as being a potential partner?

I was looking at some mini-normals to get an idea of how many PRs in a 13p is typical and consider this game with masons - viewtopic.php?f=90&t=83883 where there are 3 masons w/ a mason+, no other TPRs and multiple scum PRs. If that's balanced, then are you trying to tell me that 6 TPRs here is balanced?? As that is what we would have if DGB/JV are town.

[Marky Mark]

kes more sense in terms of explaining the no-kill N2,

I’ve already said why this isn’t the case. Noraa/Mark team?

Mark is awfully fencesitty even for someone that’s constantly saying how they think it’s me and DGB all the time

I must be missing where you explain how a no-kill N2 makes more sense - unless you are talking about 3502 where you suggest a cross-kill is possible, but as scum knew that flea was going to target a PGO and die that seems an unlikely NK target for them. If I'm missing another post where you explain this better, please could you link me as I couldn't see it in your ISO when scannning through.

I hadn't given it much thought until infin mentioned it, but just seems so risky for scum!noraa to no-kill n2 as if DGB targets noraa or any other member of the scumteam for that matter then it will seem like a guilty due to the lack of kill other than flea (which is explained by the PGO). Conversely, scum!DGB can use a no-kill n2 to paint a guilty on guillo (as we have seen). Do you have an alternate explanation for this?

[Marky Mark]

Why? Maybe they didn't want Vax to be confirmed PGO; maybe they didn't trust Flea to target Vax? I don't know. But with hindsight and Guillotina having flipped town, we can be pretty confident that scum NK'd Flea.

Is this a slip? We know Flea visited Vax as Vax was able to confirm the contents of the picnic basket (after a bit of mod faff), so we know for a fact that Vax's PGO role killed flea. Yes, scum may have cross-targetted flea but this would be functionally the same as a no-kill.

[Marky Mark]

And yeah, I'm fence-sitting real hard rn because the DGB/JV solve makes more sense to me, but I would die inside a little bit if I let someone have a free pass for quickhammering D4 if they then turned out to be scum. I just think Noraa is competent enough as a player not to quick hammer by mistake.

[Marky Mark]

We have stacks of time and I want to try and get my head around N2, as working out which explanation there makes more sense could hold the key to this

--pedit: Just seen JV's wall but need to head out imminently. Will read up when I get home.

[Marky Mark]

I'm back

And yeah, I'm fence-sitting real hard rn because the DGB/JV solve makes more sense to me, but I would die inside a little bit if I let someone have a free pass for quickhammering D4 if they then turned out to be scum. I just think Noraa is competent enough as a player not to quick hammer by mistake.

I am just going to say this quick. Do you honestly expect all three scum to make a combined gambit N1 and me immediately thrust into claiming it when the chances it goes wrong is GOD LEVEL's higher than chances it succeeds, that and I am generally hateful against Gambits as they fail 9 times out of 10.\

Also what's the difference between DGB/JV and a Noraa/[X] scum-team regarding the N2 kill. What makes it more likely it's the former with the missing kill?

1.) Scum deciding to gambit N1 is exactly what happened in Bending, and led to scum walking the game, so yeah, I can totally see that happening

2.) Ref the N2 no-kill (as I understand it)
->If DGB is scum then no-kill N2 lets her paint a fake guilty on whoever she chooses to RB - so it could be an overall positive for the scumteam
->If Noraa is scum (and DGB town) then if she no-kills N2 and DGB targets ANY scum slot it will look like that slot is guilty - so it is a significant risk to the scumteam
Please come back at me if you think I am misunderstanding this - I am keen to fathom this out as N2 underpinned the narrative for most of the midgame

[Marky Mark]

1 kill with a claimed PGO is miles more easier to push than a PGO claim with a "confirmed" PGO kill.

I can see the logic behind this though

[Marky Mark]

@Mod - if scum had targetted Flea with a NK would that have resolved before flea was able to give their picnic basket to Vax?

[Marky Mark]

Scum could have no-killed/cross-killed to set up three Town eliminations at once. Vax followed by the blocked (Gills), followed by DGB themself which is actually playing out right now to be completely honest.

This is true - it would be v high risk, but not imossible tbf

[Marky Mark]

Talking through the N2 what-ifs was helpful. I still think that DGB/JV as a scumteam does provide a logical explanation for N2 and for the wild abundance of TPRs (6/10 seems like A LOT). I also am somewhat sus of the late JOAT claim from JV that happens to inno the slot that he's suspected of being scum with (fmpov).

That being said, it's hard to look past the noraa quickhammer yesterday and I am uneasy that both noraa/infin are seeing DGB as scum WITHOUT JV as the partner, which as I have explained just does not make sense to me.

I also don't understand Noraa appealing to JV to vote for DGB - a slot that he allegedly has an inno on??

Noraa, if you are town here then I'm sorry, but I think you are a competent enough player not to inadvertently quickhammer and as such it just seems like openwolfing to me. Intent to vote noraa in the next few hours, unless my mind is substantially changed by their responses.

[Marky Mark]

You're saying I'm scum because? Like if you're actually town here can you not see how sus it is that you are asking JV to vote for a slot that he's (allegedly) inno-ed?!

--pedit: you are a good player and I honestly think town!you would have an awareness of the vote #s. I would buy this maaaybe D1 if there was like 7 votes to keep track of, but I'm pretty sure you can count to 4, especially given the proximity of a votecount to your time of voting.

--pedit2: If you're actually town here then work with me. This, however feels like an attempt to swing an elim on me because it's not looking like you're getting one on DGB any time soon. If DGB is scum here then explain a.) why JV is alive and b.) why he is going to such great lengths to defend her

[Marky Mark]

--pedit: you are a good player and I honestly think town!you would have an awareness of the vote #s. I would buy this maaaybe D1 if there was like 7 votes to keep track of, but I'm pretty sure you can count to 4, especially given the proximity of a votecount to your time of voting.

why would I?

To secure a miselim before town consensus changed (eg consider Mom's unvote almost immediately after your quickhammer)

--pedit another ATE

[Marky Mark]

I will give it this evening to see if infin has anything ground-brraking to say, but still planning to bite Noraa unless there's some earth-shattering argument I've missed that infin can bring to light

[Marky Mark]

Well, that escalated quickly! (This is me not hammering btw to rule out some tinfoil me/infin or me/noraa scumteam)

[Marky Mark]

I haven't read up, I had a migraine today

@Mark: I don't think JV/DGB is possible because the setup wouldn't pass balance. Theoretically the other scum could be a roleblocker

So let's say DGB is scum here (as you seem to think). That would mean that they would have to have some unusual modifier or JV would be dead if telling the truth.

I can see arguments for a DGB/JV scumteam here (no kill N2 makes more sense if claimed RB is scum) or for Noraa (quickhammer d4) but I'm finding it hard to see DGB being scum here without JV. Who do you see as being a potential partner?

I was looking at some mini-normals to get an idea of how many PRs in a 13p is typical and consider this game with masons - viewtopic.php?f=90&t=83883 where there are 3 masons w/ a mason+, no other TPRs and multiple scum PRs. If that's balanced, then are you trying to tell me that 6 TPRs here is balanced?? As that is what we would have if DGB/JV are town.

You or noraa is the partner.

You keep talking about 6 TPRs, but one of those is a PGO, which is negative utility. One of those is a fruit vendor, which barely adds anything. One of those is DGB, who is scum. The masons and JV have all the power in the town. Yeah it's a decent amount of power but it's by no means super townsided.

]

Ok yeah, that kinda makes sense. So, by that logic, DGB and JV both being scum would make town too weak as would be the masons, a negative PR and a semi-useless PR. It seems improbable that DGB just happens to have some funky modifier that would stop JV dying from visiting scum!them so I feel like their alignments are v likely bound up together

[Marky Mark]

Scum could have no-killed/cross-killed to set up three Town eliminations at once. Vax followed by the blocked (Gills), followed by DGB themself which is actually playing out right now to be completely honest.

But it's not 3 elims if DGB blocked noraa which it was probably going to do lmao

You're literally not nightkilling in order to guilty your own teammate. It makes zero fucking sense and nothing anyone has said has convinced me otherwise.

Yeah, I agree its a risky play, and that is deffo one of the arguments in favour of a DGB/JV scumteam

[Marky Mark]

All of mark's logic points towards DGB being scum, but he's gonna vote noraa anyway. Make that make sense.

The case for a DGB/JV scumteam is a complex case involving gambits, fakeclaims and convoluted PR interactions, so clearly there's lots to talk through and pick apart.

The case for a nora + 1 other scumteam basically boils down to whether noraa can count to 4 or not

[Marky Mark]

Its pretty clear as day that Marky and DGB are scum here.
Marky keeps saying scum team is DGB/Jacko just to make it look like he has townie paranoia. But townie paranoia is not what townies have here. Here it is clear as day what the solve is and we are waiting for one person to finally realize it.

Hmmm

As has been discussed, scum!DGB mechanically means JV is lying unless DGB has some very specific role modifier to prevent JV dying due to the weak aspect of his role. Surely the paranoia is you thinking a DGB scumteam WITHOUT JV is more likely here.

[Marky Mark]

Scum team is just :
Pig(mafia goon)
DGB(Ascetic goon)
Marky(Ascetic goon)

Jacko said something about some action going thru on DGB so DGB isn't ascetic. Ig its possible scum have a 1 shot RBer/Rolestopper or something like that?

Idk about the mech shit but ik DGB/Marky is the solve

and there are no damn clears mech wise. It doesnt matter that town is underpowered. Scum might have some negative utility role or some shit.

You can't base everything on mech and there is no confirmed clear.

"I'm going to ignore mechanical reasons that very strongly bind DGB/JV's alignments together, because it is inconvenient for my worldview"

[Marky Mark]

If this doesnt hammer, the game state is narrowed down to two possibilities
Infinity/Noraa
DGB/Marky

Inaccuracy: DGB/JV is a possibility, which you seem to be completely overlooking

[Marky Mark]

Noraa it’s confirmed DGB IS NOT ASCETIC

Stop pushing lies

This. Even if scum!DGB was rolestopped/rber how likely do you think it is that they would target a claimed N1 vig over a mason++?

[Marky Mark]

I've seen enough VOTE: Noraa

[Marky Mark]

Noraa it’s confirmed DGB IS NOT ASCETIC

Stop pushing lies

This. Even if scum!DGB was rolestopped/rber how likely do you think it is that they would target a claimed N1 vig over a mason++?

No its either a factional ability or its a one shot/two shot and ur the rolestopper that rolestopped DGB

Masons rolecopped me as vanilla. Try harder next time.

[Marky Mark]

Sorry, my last couple of posts may have crossed the line from being cheeky into being rude and I apologise if they came across that way.

Noraa, I really do think you're scum here, but I mean no offense on a personal level

[Marky Mark]

Let's take some of the heat out of this thread

[Marky Mark]

I mean clearly someone is trolling here, whether its Noraa or JV

[Marky Mark]

Let's take some of the heat out of this thread

be quiet, scum.

Woah there. If you're actually town here then you are miles off as I'm VT

[Marky Mark]

GG all, and seriously WP scum.

Ty mod for a really fun setup

[Marky Mark]

Even if we had correctly elimed DGB, there is literally 0 way that I'd have ever got Noraa or Infin to vote JV over me because they seemed so tunneled on the illogical DGB/Me solve.

I also massively overestimated Noraa's ability to count to 4

[Marky Mark]

I have no doubt the dead thread were screaming at me through today, when I effectively had the casting vote between noraa/infin and DGB/JV

[Marky Mark]

I also massively overestimated Noraa's ability to count to 4

I wasn't counting.

Haha, it's all good. It was fun playing with you

I hope you can see from my pov how it looked like openwolfing covered over by cutseyness

[Marky Mark]

good meme

[Marky Mark]

Be honest Noraa, if DGB flipped standard scum RB would you have elimed me tomorrow over JV?

[Marky Mark]

Well that's kinda a relief in a weird way that even if i'd guessed the right way it wouldn't have been the deciding factor

I'm genuinely all about that VT life tho - it's the most chilled role in the game

[Marky Mark]

JV played really well, the gambit was inspired. Scum played really well.

I totally agree. I reckon they picked up a few things from DK and Flavour in that Bending mini

[Marky Mark]

the point of the PGO at least from my pov was to serve as a quasi IC. Like, scum are just going to leave that alone and unless you guys lynched it (wich u did) its gonna be there for the whole game. or maybe that makes sense to no one else but me.

I think if Vax's slot had claimed D1 then things would have worked out fairly differently, as people would have been less sus of the claim and we probs wouldn't have sent flea to their death just to verify it

[Marky Mark]

The flavour idea was really good and I'd have loved to see it turned up to 11 - eg instead of Pig flipping as a goon, they could've been some kinda generic bear like a Brown Bear and then DGB could've been some kinda bear that blocks people eg a Blocker Bear (idk, but you get the idea)

I mean the masons were v powerful tbf and I think in hindsight the premature claim may have got us as town into a fair bit of hot water. I am very much partially to blame for this as I started the wagon on Mom

[Marky Mark]

This makes my town record 1 win for 3 losses - still infinitely better than my scum record of 0 for 1. Guess I still have a lot to learn

--pedit lol Noraa, good advice

[Marky Mark]

This makes my town record 1 win for 3 losses - still infinitely better than my scum record of 0 for 1. Guess I still have a lot to learn

--pedit lol Noraa, good advice

[Marky Mark]

Nora and guillotina are the two towniest in the thread. I'm expecting some scum shade in either/or/both slots

:OOOOOOOOOOOO
Momrangal is seriously a genius.

I mean the DGB/Me solve was 50% right tbf

[Marky Mark]

JV kills flea

And scum Nking flea was a slip from DGB after all that

[Marky Mark]

(as opposed to no-kill, I mean)

Its interesting that Vax clearly still got the basket, so the NK must go after the fruit vend, I guess