Open 893 - 09:12 - Postgame

[Thomith]

Been a long long while since I've played one of these so looking forward to getting going.

VOTE: Cobblerfone

[Thomith]

What if the apple belongs to the crab?

Are apples healthy for crabs? Research to be done.

Apparently Hermit Crabs eat fallen fruits, which can include apples!

Yes I did just look this up because this peaked my curiosity...


The more you know.

[Thomith]

According to the wiki its ELo/LiLo (Eliminate/Lim or lose)
Had to look up some of the new terms myself too lol.

[Thomith]

I'm feeling this actually
VOTE: Celebloki

Any particular reason why you're feeling that vote, or is it still kind of random?

[Thomith]

I did briefly consider if hypoclaiming (everyone picks a town role off the clock and then claims a target/result at the beginning of D2, the actual town PR's could claim their real results and then if they die)

Unless there's enough overlap in claims, doesn't this give scum the exact setup?

I was thinking this, I'd be a little worried to do this, because the scum could guess either the exact setup, or get very close to the exact set up depending on what PR they themselves have, and who ends up hypoclaiming what.

[Thomith]

That is a point against it but also Maf already have a 50/50 shot of guessing the exact setup since they can infer it from their PR.

I don't think that's true. Due to how the clock could work, I think there would be 3 different combinations of Town PR's that it could be depending on the Mafia's PR. Even more if the Mafia have a Rolecop.

[Thomith]

I kind of want to wait and see what Puff's response to people questioning of 30 is before looking too deep on what the motivations could have been.
I feel like it easily could have been done with the same motivations as 19 tbh, but will wait and see what they say about it.

[Thomith]

I think the ideal play for D2 is to do a pre-hypoclaim "categorical" claim where everyone claims whether or not they have a hard guilty. A hard guilty here would be a Rolecop that discovers a Rolecop/Roleblocker, or a Follower that sees their target kill. Assuming everyone claims they do NOT have a guilty, then we can proceed to hypoclaiming as though we are all one of the 4 roles that surrounds Mafia Rolecop. This will allow anyone who is actually on 2/4/8/10 to claim their results for post-flip analysis without giving too much away to scum in the moment. On the plus side, in the case of a hard guilty, there is a 50% chance that the other TPR is a protective that can save the player that claimed the hard guilty for more results D3 onward.

If the number roll was 8, could there not be a Town Roleblocker and Rolecop in the same setup?

[Thomith]

I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.

UNVOTE:

May I ask why this makes you town read ssbm/Mizuki? Was it the way they went about it/responded to it, or just the fact they were trying to figure out how the setup could work/how hypoclaiming could get it to work in our favour?

[Thomith]

I don't necessarily think Cobblerfone is scummy, but my vote remains for now until they contribute something that let's me get a read from them.

If I'm honest I'm mostly waiting for your response to being questioned about post 30 before deciding how to proceed with my vote.

[Thomith]

Why are so many people waiting to see the response to post 30?
Feels like an excuse not to play
VOTE: Thomith

I personally want to get a response regarding 30 because Puff has seemingly town-red 4 players in the game by page 4, and I'd 1) like to know how serious 30 was and 2) would like to know the reasons for those reads.

[Thomith]

To be fair, maybe I am tunelled too much on 30.
Gunna be a bit busy today but will reread things with a more open mind over this weekend.

[Thomith]

Cobblerfone, could you elaborate on what you mean when you say you doubt Puff is mafia due to statistical reasons?

[Thomith]

I don't like how ssbm_Kyouko misrepped mine and gob's posts. It will take a while for me to respond to this post and from my understanding gob has been baiting reactions.

- A

Reaction testing makes sense, I'm happy with this explanation for now.
To be honest with how the Puff slot in general responded to the questioning, and how they have been posting since, I do have a slight null leaning town read for now. Might look into how that wagon seemed to grow as there may be a potential of there being at least one scum pushing it if this slot is town as a kind of easy push reason (not answering).

Cobblerfone, could you elaborate on what you mean when you say you doubt Puff is mafia due to statistical reasons?

there's a 7/9 chance that the first big wagon of the day is town. I'm town and was the third vote. If Kyouko is town, she'd have a 2/9 chance of voting mafia on day one. If she were puff's partner, she could "randomly" vote informedly to distance, but considering their interactions so far I doubt they are mafia together unless Kyouko has a history of bussing

With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.

Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.

Why is kyouko scum individually?

That's part of the reason I unvoted Puff. I have a townread on Kyouko and if she's town she and I are both more likely to have randomly voted for town than for mafia. 2/9 * 2/9 = 4/81 chance of mafia

Why are you misrepresenting my reads?

These two quotes make me happy with my vote where it is for now. I don't really know how well or accurate these statistics can be, because when these things are influenced by peoples actions/differing motivations in how they are acting or voting, I think it fudges the accuracy of these statistics.
I'll need to reread Cobblerfone's ISO, because at a glance, specifically these quotes, feels like it could be scum acting like they are providing more information than they actually are.

[Thomith]

-SNIP-

These two quotes make me happy with my vote where it is for now. I don't really know how well or accurate these statistics can be, because when these things are influenced by peoples actions/differing motivations in how they are acting or voting, I think it fudges the accuracy of these statistics.
I'll need to reread Cobblerfone's ISO, because at a glance, specifically these quotes, feels like it could be scum acting like they are providing more information than they actually are.

Not sure if we're mind-melding here or just sheeping what I've said on Cobb, lol.

Genuinely didn't mean to sheep if I have similar reasoning to you , I genuinely just saw the statistics posts and really didn't like them at all.

[Thomith]

112 comes off as a player trying to sound analytical but the actual content is a very nothing-burger argument, and that type of play is more likely to come from scum here.

Oh just saw this, yeah I can see how it came across as me sheeping you then, but I missed this when I was skim reading, but yeah, I did get a similar vibe from those posts.

[Thomith]

Kyouko I have light TR on mostly from vibes
Thomith I think is rather towny, I think there’s some good questions asked by him
Elements I’m slightly concerned about. I feel like the first 3 CrabApple posts are fake new-ness on reflection.
VOTE: Elements
Still don’t have a lot of feelings about shaddowez so that vote feels stale

I feel like faking newness could more be attempting to hide being an alt rather than indicating any kind of alignment in this case?

[Thomith]

I will say Elements vote on me was completely fair and did seen town motivated to try and get the game moving. Sure, they singled me out, but to be fair, I was the only person who was fully waiting on a response without analysing anything else further, which again to me makes the vote seem more town motivated vs opportunistic Mafia motivation.

Admittedly, as I said before, I had tunelled quite a bit on post 30, and wasnt really paying attention to much else.

[Thomith]

When rereading I just realised something I did not notice before.

I fully only thought there were like 2 or 3 of us questioning Puff about post 30, but on a reread it seems like it was over half the playerlist in the entire game that was questioning the slot (Me, Gamma Emerald, Cobblerfone, Elements, Mizuki, Kyouko) either directly on post 30, or on other things after it became clear that the Puff slot had gained a lot of attention. That definitely gives me vibes that Puff could very feasibly just be Town, and there was at least one Mafia jumping on that seemingly easy train of thought/suspicion.
Again this also makes me more tempted to read Elements as Town currently, as it did look like they were trying to avoid this happening, at least to me.

[Thomith]

@Cobblerfone, we have your thoughts on Kyouko and Puff, what are your thoughts on the other players in this game?

[Thomith]

I don't think Gamma is a good vote

VOTE: gamma

What changed your mind on her between these two posts?

Skimmed Gamma's iso from open 891 and then reread its iso from this game

Okay. What similarities did you see?

You felt a lot more "look at me! I'm here to have fun!" In your entrance than I remember you feeling in other games I've played with you

@Kyouko, as I believe you have said before that you felt confident identifying Gamma Emerald as Mafia, I'm curious to know your thoughts on this? Do you agree with this assessment?

[Thomith]

Spoiler: Cobblerfone's Long Quote

@Cobblerfone, we have your thoughts on Kyouko and Puff, what are your thoughts on the other players in this game?

Admittedly you remind me of my scum IC in my first newbie game on the site. Way back long ago. So you give me scum vibes, but I'm actively choosing to ignore them, because I think it was probably mostly a personality thing. When I read your posts, I imagine an old man in a leather armchair hanging back and but asking questions with a point to them. Though when I check your profile you seem to be younger than me in reality, so apologies.

For Elements, their vote hopping sticks out to me RVS!Puff -> Thomith -> Cobblerfone -> Gamma. When I read their posts they have a more naive voice in my head, but whether it's naive town or naive scum, I'm not sure.

Gamma gives the impression of just hanging back until I called her out. First parcel of content is in ISO 5 in which she gives the opinion that hypoclaiming targets but not results will be better. Next non-setup post of substance is ISO 9 where she asks Adorable what she thinks of Gobs reads. And that's it until I vote for her low content posts. Then she becomes more active. IDK, maybe she's mobile posting, but overall her early posts gives the impression of someone who wants to appear to be posting but to also fade into the background without strong opinions.

Mizuki, I think of in terms of her tunnel on me. My gut gives me a slight town read because I have a history of attracting misguided town tunnels. She was also the first vote on me when there was still a plausible wagon on Puff, so unless Puff is mafia and Mizuki is their partner, I don't see her being mafia. Though if Puff is mafia, then Mizuki is scummier.

For Celebloki and Shadowez, there's not enough interaction from them. Them being V/LA is slightly annoying, but it's Thanksgiving so whatever.

Because it's lazy and that feels more like town than scum. The alternative is that you're scum scrambling desperately to push Gamma for {arbitrary reasons} and I don't think that makes sense in the gamestate unless the scumteam is exactly {Cobbler, Elements}, and even then that's a stretch because in that case there are still like 3 low-activity slots that could be pressured to divert attention from Cobbler instead.

Why couldn't it be mafia simply not feeling pressured and lazily throwing out arbitrary scumreads? You present the possibility of lazy!town and desperate!wolf but don't seem to consider the option in the middle.

-SNIP-

I won't get into the whole statistics part of this post because my opinions on statistics in mafia is that they're only useful for the theoretical side of mafia (e.g balancing setups) and have no use in actual gameplay.

I do want to know what you find in Puff's and Kyouko's posts that seems townie and what in Elements posts you find scummy, since those are basically the only reads you've given so far.

I'll assume you mean Gamma instead of Elements (unless that was a scum-slip and Elements is your partner?). For Gamma, see above.

For Puff, it's mostly Adorable. The way they've been answering questions directed at Gob seems more stream-of-consciousness rather than calculated. Adorable is also choosing to reply when they don't have to -- they could just wait for Gob.

For Kyouko, the setup speculation didn't seem calculated to influence the town to choose a bad option. It was also early at the start of the game where there's low information anyway and it got some discussion going, though it didn't really go anywhere. And while she's not asking questions, her reactions to posts feel genuine rather than calculated.

Not completely game related but your visual of me made me smile

Could you expand a little on why you think you attract misguided town tunnels?

I'll bite on one of your other points though, just to hear some reasoning from someone else to avoid tunnelling on you.

@Elements, do you agree with the assessment that you've been vote hopping?

I'm willing to unvote for now. I admittedly don't know realistically how much info a Cobblerfone flip would give us right now.
UNVOTE:

[Thomith]

Honestly?

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I think pushing up here might be worthwhile.

May I ask why?

[Thomith]

Honestly?

VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

I think pushing up here might be worthwhile.

I can join you here
VOTE: ssbm_kyouko
I've been pondering with the idea 202 is also tmi on both me and Gamma being town

What do you mean TMI on you and Gamma being town?

[Thomith]

As in, I actually don't understand what that means, rather than your reason for saying that

[Thomith]

Gotcha, yeah that makes sense.
I'm not sure that I see where in that post Kyouka having more information than she should though?

[Thomith]

Honestly, the reason why I'm a little confused is because the votes happened, but the reasoning for them had to be drawn out of Mizuki and Elements, rather than mentioned when the votes originally happened.
I could be reading too much into this though.

[Thomith]

not sure what to do here tbh

Right now I'm kind of in the same boat, I have some ideas of how I feel about most players, but also feel like I'm missing something that makes me confident to vote someone for sure.

Celebloki and shaddowez should hopefully post soon, which at least will help me feel like I have some sort of a read on every slot

[Thomith]

Anyone else think shaddowez is scum here? just based off the first post.

Elements is being scummy too. But there is the whole alt thing so idk.

What do you think @kyouko

What's scummy about what is essentially an ego post?

[Thomith]

By itself no it's not but I remember being bothered that the promised random vote never came the next day - by the time I noticed that he was gone and there were other things to focus on though

Without double checking, were we not kind of out of RVS by the time he was back? At the least we were definitely into the phase of the day where we were on setup/hypoclaim discussion.

[Thomith]

Anyone else think shaddowez is scum here? just based off the first post.

Elements is being scummy too. But there is the whole alt thing so idk.

What do you think @kyouko

What's scummy about what is essentially an ego post?

Over explainy first post. "Sleep now." "Post tomorrow"

Scum feels the need to over explain, especially in a scenario where they legit gotta go. Town would just be like "sup" and leave.

That's kind of what I assumed you meant.
Hm. I guess I could see it, but I do want to hear more from him before making a full judgement.

[Thomith]

Anyone else think shaddowez is scum here? just based off the first post.

Elements is being scummy too. But there is the whole alt thing so idk.

What do you think @kyouko

What's scummy about what is essentially an ego post?

Over explainy first post. "Sleep now." "Post tomorrow"

Scum feels the need to over explain, especially in a scenario where they legit gotta go. Town would just be like "sup" and leave.

That's kind of what I assumed you meant.
Hm. I guess I could see it, but I do want to hear more from him before making a full judgement.

That's fair. what do you think about elements/crabapple

I feel like their opening was bad enough to warrant a vote today.

Up until the Gamma Meta, and subsequent Kyouko discussion, I had a slight town read on Elements, due to the attempt to push the game forward/away from everyone focusing on you for post 30.

I'm not too sure after that though. It seemed like they backed off the Gamma meta argument when questioned, and as I said before, I do just get a weird feeling that the Kyouko push happened without much reason to begin with (I understand Mizuki's reasoning for this), and the reasoning had to be extracted through questioning.
To be fair, I feel like Elements responded well to this questioning, which is what makes me feel weird about that whole situation and makes me unsure how to read it at the moment.

[Thomith]

I disagree about their opening. at best it's NAI.

[Thomith]

I want to clarify I 100% understand the push, and understand the reasoning even if I don't agree with it, I just get a weird feeling about the whole discussion that I can't properly put my finger on as to why.

[Thomith]

Readslist:

Yay!

Thomith
Elements
Mizuki
Kyouko
Gamma
Puff
Shadow
Cobb

Nay!

I can see your reasoning for Puff and Cobb clearly in your catch up post, but could you expand on your other reads?

[Thomith]

I did not like imaginality's catch up. The wallpost looked like the kind of post scum would make to fake a read and it looked like he was pairing Cobb's and me as scum buddies. Pairing 2 players as scum I consider it scum trying to setup chain mislim. The part where imaginality said where I was rewarding a town read made no sense to me.

- A

Only would be a chain mislim if Cobb (or you) are scum otherwise it fails as soon as one flips town. So are you saying you're sure Cobb is scum?

This attempt at insinuating that Puff has knowledge they shouldn't feels like a stretch to me...

[Thomith]

lol cobberfone mafia

Why do you think that?

[Thomith]

What's going on...

[Thomith]

Readslist:

Yay!

Thomith
Elements
Mizuki
Kyouko
Gamma
Puff
Shadow
Cobb

Nay!

This reads list gives me bad vibes and I'm not entirely sure why.
I agree with what Cobb has said a little, it feels like the 4 "scummiest" on the list have either already had a decent amount of suspicion on them, or haven't been posting walls so I could see this list maybe coming from a Mafia member trying to set up Mislims against people they think they potentially could out argue.

[Thomith]

It's not specifically that they find Cobb scummy - all 4 of their "scummiest" players seem like they could come from opportunistic scum.
Like it almost feel like the list is ordered from hardest to argue a lim for to easiest to argue a lim for, which has given me a bad gut feeling towards it.

[Thomith]

I've never played with Enchant and thanks for letting us now that he auto hammers at E-1.

- A

Is that actually true?

[Thomith]

I think a Cobb flip gives us a decent amount of information, and they still are my biggest scum read at the moment.

The imaginality reads list is the only thing throwing me for a loop here at the moment though.

[Thomith]

Hypoclaiming plan, in summary, assuming a town PR is not dead by morning of D2:

Everyone in turn claims whether they have a hard guilty or not

If nobody has a hard guilty, everyone hypoclaims as though they are one of the roles on 2/4/8/10 on the clock in the setup. When hypoclaiming, make sure the result you are claiming could be legit, like if you're pretending to be on 2 dont claim as though a 7 is in the game because it's not possible from 2's POV. Every hypoclaim needs to be believable so it can't be used to POE the TPRs. Also dont hypoclaim a guilty because we're checking for guilties before the hypoclaim so that will also out you as a VT. It is very important that any TPR on 1/5/7/11 claims as though they are on 2/4/8/10 otherwise this would obviously expose you.

Benefits of claiming the guilty first before any hypoclaims is half the time the other TPR is one that can protect the investigative TPR that claimed, and by claiming guilty first, the protective has not outed themselves

Benefits of claiming on 2/4/8/10 is that it does not give scum any info about the setup before flips unless someone claims an inno on scum where scum knows a real PR would have a guilty. In this case it helps scum POE into PR kills/wagons

Benefit of 1/5/7/11 claiming as a 2/4/8/10 - 1/5/7/11s do not have the ability to hard guilty anyone and it is still possible to crumb your actual result/target by using the hypoclaim. For example a doctor could say they tracked X nowhere and after that doctor flips, we can probably assume X was doctored if it would make sense from flipped doctor's POV to guard X. I don't think that 1/5/7/11s necessarily should crumb what they did because oftentimes it won't amount to a hard guilty or hard inno.

This is all recapped on mobile without referencing the setup clock but I think it should be accurate

This was the last thing I remember seeing regarding hypoclaiming, so I assume we are going with this plan?

[Thomith]

Hypoclaim: I do not have a hard guilty.

I'd be inclined to say I don't think the last Mafia is Puff - calling back to this post I made during Day 1:

When rereading I just realised something I did not notice before.

I fully only thought there were like 2 or 3 of us questioning Puff about post 30, but on a reread it seems like it was over half the playerlist in the entire game that was questioning the slot (Me, Gamma Emerald, Cobblerfone, Elements, Mizuki, Kyouko) either directly on post 30, or on other things after it became clear that the Puff slot had gained a lot of attention. That definitely gives me vibes that Puff could very feasibly just be Town, and there was at least one Mafia jumping on that seemingly easy train of thought/suspicion.
Again this also makes me more tempted to read Elements as Town currently, as it did look like they were trying to avoid this happening, at least to me.

Cobb was one of the people that seemed to jump onto suspecting Puff after a few people had already declared their suspicions on them, which now Cobb has flipped red, makes me think they were opportunistic scum jumping onto someone who wasn't them, which makes me feel better about Puff being town - it reinforces what I thought at the time that Puff may just be town.

Unless they randomly hard bussed, I feel very good about Imaginality and Kyouko for sure, also feel relatively good about Mizuki for now too.

[Thomith]

Hypoclaim: Rolecop on Puffalicious. They are Vanilla.

[Thomith]

I don't have a hard guilty - does anyone have a hard guilty before we move to hypoclaims?

These are the possible hypoclaims for 2/4/8/10, where the letters are variables like targets or actions:
2 (Tracker): X went nowhere, X visited Y, (X visited Y and Z is a hard guilty)
4 (Follower): X did nothing, X Jailkept, X Tracked, (X shot/killed is a hard guilty)
8 (Roleblocker): I roleblocked X
10 (Rolecop): X is vanilla, X is a doctor, X is a Roleblocker, (X is a rolecop is a hard guilty)

As a reminder, if you are on 1/5/7/11, you should make up a claim on 2/4/8/10. If you want to you can try to "sneak" your actual claim into the hypoclaim.
For example a Vanilla Cop who got a Vanilla result could claim to be a Rolecop that got a Vanilla result.
A jailkeeper could claim to have roleblocked their target.
Doctors and Babysitters can claim anything, just try not to out yourself.

This is the explanation for why/what we are doing then by the way.

[Thomith]

A combination of re-reading the game during night phase, cannibalizing other people's reads, and associatives from the Cobb flip.

What is your response to 385, by the way?

It makes it hard for me to buy what you're saying and your inconsistency was very pingy. Progressions are very important and you did not show progression on your read on us. It would have looked alot more believable if you said something along the lines of, "I had a town read on Puff from last day but now my town read on them is starting to drop." After seeing the Cobbs flip, I put you as town on my reads list I made in the hydra chat and now that I saw your recent post I became paranoid of you.

What does cannibalizing other peoples reads mean?

My response to your other post is on the first paragraph this is what I believe and I became worried that town would never look into the set up of a miselim because scum can get away from doing it. Where I come from town hardly ever does it and they have individual reads instead.

- A

I very rarely have good progressions. I play very much "in the moment", so to speak, which can make me seem inconsistent. Are you also suspect of Kyouko here? She stated a "firm town" read on Elements in 254 and now 384 looks to be Kyouko now scumreading Elements.

When I say "cannibalizing" I'm basically just sheeping other people's reads. As I said I trust Imagi for right now, and you were suspected rather early in the day.

How many games have you played on MS (talking to Adorable specifically)? I can show you a few games where town lost because they were looking for a team rather than an individual scum-read. I've won scumgames off of that.

Kyouko's post on #384 did not make me suspect her. Cobb said like around 2 or 3 times they have a strong town read on Kyouko and after seeing their flip it made me think they tmied Kyouko town.

You accused my slot of cannabilizing and so are you saying I have been sheeping? Where have I been sheeping because it doesn't feel like I have been sheeping. You said you trust imagi and was it just his catch up you liked? Is there anything else you like about imagi?

I've only played alike around 12-15 games here. I don't know if you are misunderstanding me or not. You said you can show me a few games where town lost for looking for a team rather than individual scum read and my read on imagi was mainly his catch up post from day 1 how it looked like he paired me and cobb as a team when there has been no scum flip at that time and after seeing Cobb's flip I still suspected imagi and on day 2 I became worried he was setting up a day 2 miselim. Are you saying I am looking for team rather than individual scum read?

- A

I'd like to suggest you may be tunelled on imaginality here. I understand the reasoning behind your point but to me, it would feel like it would be absolutely crazy to get your partner eliminated on Day 1, just to secure a mislim on Day 2.

[Thomith]

While my Vote on Cobb started as RVS, I mentioned my suspicion on them multiple times and stated that was the reason my vote stayed there for so long.

Due to how Cobb interacted with Puff early on in the day, jumping on the Puff suspicion after the wagon was gaining speed, and even though they unvoted, kept mentioning they suspected Puff for a long time after unvoting them to stop Puff falling out of discussion as being a possible elimination, I have a hard time believing that Puff is the partner. I'll explain more with examples once I'm home from work later.

If we are between Puff and Gamma, I'd prefer to get Gamma here.
Because Cobb was also on Gamma for a lot of the day, I think there's a chance that Gamma isnt scum either, and we just have a deep wolf.
I doubt it's you, unless you pulled a real nasty gambit by hard bussing Cobb, and I feel good about Kyouko as well.

My gut is pinging on Mizuki, but I really don't know why, so dont want to pursue that at the moment. I need to reread Elements I think.

[Thomith]

With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.

Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.

With the way Puff's responding, I'm sticking with my vote for now. Assuming the head that posted 30 is the one posting recently, they've had ample time to respond to the questioning. Though they might be trying to do something.

Though there are statistical reasons for me to doubt they're mafia, especially since I'm not sure it makes sense for Kyouko to be Puff's partner. Unless she has a history of bussing? I'll research that sometime today or tomorrow. I'll definitely have more free time tomorrow.

What is there to respond to? I just said that to get attention going, nothing that serious.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by "get attention going" and your motive for doing so? Or by "nothing that serious" are you claiming it was tongue-in-cheek?

These two posts happened quite early on in the day, after there were a lot of us questioning Puff at that point. As I mentioned before, when I realised there were so many people going after the Puff slot, it made me seriously consider that Puff could be town, and that there was at least one scum jumping onto the suspicions as this was an easy wagon to go down. Now that Cobb has flipped Red, I am almost positive that I was correct, and Cobb was the scum that was part of this push.

Hmmmmmmmm...

While I think Puff's death could give us the most information (i.e. if they flip mafia then Crabapple and Mizuki seem more like mafia trying to apply pressure elsewhere and if they flip town Crabapple and Mizuki hopping off the bandwagon makes them look townier), Puff's recent posts feel like they come from town to me, especially A's. I think the wagon has produced adequate info. Combined with the the statistical chance previously explained, I think scum's more likely to be laying low.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

All their posts have been low content so far.

Even when unvoting, they make a point to say they think flipping Puff still isn't a bad idea, giving them an easy way to jump back onto that wagon if it picked up again, with the excuse of "trying to get information" because Puff still had heat on them at that point of the day.
The reason why I'm not 100% convinced that Gamma is scum, is the reasoning for Cobb's jump onto Gamma. It feels similar to Puff, where they were looking for an easy reason to latch onto something. Again though, if we

are

choosing between Puff and Gamma, I'm more confident that Puff is town than I am Gamma, so that's where my preference is.

Woke up early today and my mind got locked on the game. I guess sleep really does help process stuff. I didn't vote him yesterday because I wanted to make sure it wasn't just emotion fueling my vote, but I realized something: who are Imaginality's top scum reads? The two players who got to E-2 and the V/LA Enchant slot everyone else is also suspicious of by default. Why vote me when the only reason he gives for me being scum is that I was allegedly trying to defend scum!Puff? I think Imaginality is scum who decided in advance who he was going to vote: the non-RVS wagon of the day, so they go looking for reasons to vote me. But there's a problem, the only potentially scummy thing I've done is divert pressure off of Puff's wagon -- but it's only scummy if Puff is mafia. But he doesn't vote Puff despite having more reasons to vote them, instead he votes for me. Why? There are two possibilities: either Puff is mafia and he's voting me trying to manufacture evidence that Puff is town (he said that if I'm town, then Puff is town) OR Puff is town (more likely given Puff's pushback) and he's voting me because

I

was one of Puff's three votes AND Puff's wagon was mostly RVS.

VOTE: imaginality

This feels like Cobb knows they are in real trouble, knows that they and Puff are being paired, and so started playing into that pair to set up Puff when Cobb ended up flipping Red. This is more of a WIFOM reason than the rest I guess, but I genuinely feel like that easily could have been what happened here.

To me it genuinely looks like Cobb was trying to push Puff early on when Puff was being heavily suspected, and when it was clear that Cobb was probably going down, they tried to make Puff look as bad as possible to drag them down as well, which is why I'm inclined to think Puff is town here.

[Thomith]

seeing 425 reminds me Cobb was newbscum and probably spewed some townies

Owner's Market Blitz was not the game I'm remembering btw

Did Cobb say they were newbscum?

[Thomith]

@Thomasina I don't see why Cobb feels the need to unvote Puff in 119 if Puff is town. Why not just stay on Puff there? Maybe you can argue it's NAI rather than my take of it pointing to them being aligned but I think it's a stretch to call Puff town because of it.

What did you think of my other points about Puff?

@kyouko you can see in the 'statistical reasons' comment in 101 that Cobb was already preparing to jump ship at a suitable time.

If I'm honest I genuinely think you could be tunelled on Puff, the same way I think Puff is tunelled on you.
I think all of your points against puff could be very easily argued as either NAI, or Town motivated depending on the perspective you read the posts from.

81 - Could be town motivated by attempting to avoid people potentially misclearing based on something that isn't actively working towards solving the game.
204 - Reads can change - and this feels like a progression of their read on me, rather than randomly calling me town because I called them town. As far as I remember, Puff never outright suspected me, so it's not like they suddenly flipped their read out of nowhere, which I think would give this point more merit (I see where you're coming from though, so I could be wrong about this).
376 & 386 - to be completely honest, because Puff ended up hypoclaiming an action that was not in the roles that was listed in the hypoclaim plan, I genuinely could just see them not understanding the hypoclaim plan.

[Thomith]

Didn't imaginality restart the Cobb wagon, or am I misremembering?

[Thomith]

Oh, I misread the last part of your post - I thought you were saying that they jumped onto the Cobb wagon because it was moving quickly, nevermind.

[Thomith]

I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.

UNVOTE:

What I do see here is a potential Follower crumb and since Cobbler claimed Follower, I could see scum thinking there is a follower in the setup and trying to draw a future counterclaim out of them with this plan. It's a common enough expression, but worth noting as a potential crumb I think.

Did you misread Celeboki as Cobblerfone?
I'm Celebloki's replacement, and this is not helpful speculation.

No I didn't misread it, what I'm saying is Celebloki and Cobbler potentially coordinated to crumb follower so that in the event one was going down, they could try to bait a CC from what is probably the only role that could guilty them if Celebloki rolled strongman, which seems the most likely.scenario if Cobbler claimed specifically Follower. My guess is scum rolled strongman and because strongman can shoot through Babysitter, Roleblocker, and Jailkeeper, the only PR to worry about is Follower

I think the other possibility to this is Scum maybe rolled Rolecop and took the 50/50 on what side of the clock we're on.

[Thomith]

Yeah but the puzzle fits so nicely if it's strongman

True

[Thomith]

Idk, I'm not sure I buy imaginality as scum tbh. While I get your points that it could be possible, and why you think it could be possible, it feels like there are a few too many what ifs that make me question it a little.

[Thomith]

Gamma Enchant Elements Thomith

Everyone else is clear

I think we go

Gamma > Thomith > Ehcnant/Elements

Enchant is dead, and how is everyone else clear?

[Thomith]

While I unvoted, I was pretty vocal about suspecting Cobb throughout the day.

[Thomith]

Gamma Enchant Elements Thomith

Everyone else is clear

I think we go

Gamma > Thomith > Ehcnant/Elements

Enchant is dead, and how is everyone else clear?

Everyone else (except my slot lol) voted Cobbler at one point or another. Gamma didn't vote. You did vote but then unvoted. Elements was last to jump on among alive.

So you also don't think there is any possibility that somebody bussed Cobb?

[Thomith]

Should Gamma claim?

[Thomith]

At this point I'm more inclined to hammer Gamma than you, but I'm not sure I'm ready for the day to end yet, because I'm still a little conflicted.

[Thomith]

I'm just gonna

VOTE: Imaginality

His position after the catch-up is just too perfectly aligned with how scum should be playing in that slot. TRs on popular/consensus TRed slots, suspicion on the most nullish, the take on Cobb's recent post being well thought out just doesn't feel legit. I think the best shot Imaginality had was to counterwagon Puff but maybe he wanted a more natural progression where he has these 3 SRs/suspicious slots in Cobb/Puff/Shadowwes and wanted to move from Cobb to Puff over time, but the Cobb wagon was too fast for him to stop

I think this is the post you are referencing @imaginality

[Thomith]

I think a Cobb flip gives us a decent amount of information, and they still are my biggest scum read at the moment.

The imaginality reads list is the only thing throwing me for a loop here at the moment though.

This is the exact quote Puff is thinking of I think.
I don't see this as me attempting to start a counter wagon, I never voted you. I thought I was pretty vocal on Cobb being my biggest scum read for a while, I was just being wary because your (imaginality) scum reads seemed to be the 4 easiest pushes in the game, which is what gave me slight pause.

[Thomith]

Kyouko do you still want me to answer your question regarding the setup?

[Thomith]

I'll be real I've crumbed my role as well so they may know already.

[Thomith]

I may as well claim since I gave it away I guess, which may have been stupid so I apologise if it does screw us over.

I am Town Rolecop.

As well as what Kyouko has mentioned, I crumbed on Page 10, because Town Rolecop is hour 10 on the setup clock:

not sure what to do here tbh

R

ight now I'm kind of in the same boat, I have some ideas of how I feel about most players, but also feel like I'm missing something that makes me confident to vote someone for sure.

C

elebloki and shaddowez should hopefully post soon, which at least will help me feel like I have some sort of a read on every slot

This is also why I have been hard defending Puff today, because I know they are Town, because the Mafia Goon is dead.

[Thomith]

If you are a Town PR and haven't claimed, you need to CC me/Elements now.
If we remain UnCCed, the final scum is between Imaginality, Gamma and Kyouko.

If we get CCed, the final scum is between Me/Elements/The CC.

[Thomith]

I have a really hard time reading setup speculation without my eye's glazing over, but I think I ultimately followed it. I do think I generally get a town read on ssbm because of it though. Maybe also Mizuki.

UNVOTE:

What I do see here is a potential Follower crumb and since Cobbler claimed Follower, I could see scum thinking there is a follower in the setup and trying to draw a future counterclaim out of them with this plan. It's a common enough expression, but worth noting as a potential crumb I think.

Did you misread Celeboki as Cobblerfone?
I'm Celebloki's replacement, and this is not helpful speculation.

No I didn't misread it, what I'm saying is Celebloki and Cobbler potentially coordinated to crumb follower so that in the event one was going down, they could try to bait a CC from what is probably the only role that could guilty them if Celebloki rolled strongman, which seems the most likely.scenario if Cobbler claimed specifically Follower. My guess is scum rolled strongman and because strongman can shoot through Babysitter, Roleblocker, and Jailkeeper, the only PR to worry about is Follower

I think the other possibility to this is Scum maybe rolled Rolecop and took the 50/50 on what side of the clock we're on.

I'll also say this is why I questioned this, because I knew there wasn't a strongman in the setup.

[Thomith]

I guess coordination isn't required because if you both target the same player and one of you dies the remaining one still has a guilty/inno on one of the 2

Eh I think we still may as well.

[Thomith]

Everything checks out, I'm a VT.

It really just has to between Gamma and Imagi then, I don't see Kyouko putting herself into a corner like this as scum and I can't see anything egregiously manipulative in the mech spec.

I'll be honest I've been thinking about something similar today, and figured out if we have exactly a Roleblocker we could do this plan, but didn't want to claim before in case we had a Doctor and then I'm outed for no reason.

[Thomith]

Which is why I agree, I don't see anything manipulative in the mech spec either.

[Thomith]

I'll Rolecop Kyouko then, assuming it goes to Night 2.

[Thomith]

I'd still like everyone to claim Town PR or Not Town PR in their next post before we end the day I think, just to make 100% sure.

[Thomith]

I guessed thomith was a town invest who checked my slot and got a town clear on us. I didn't want to say it in the thread and I only said in the hydra chat I thought he was a town invest who cleared us and turns out I was right.


- A

I'll be real, I almost just soft claimed, because I thought that my defense of you made me obvious that I knew something a VT wouldn't. I'm surprised more people didn't pick up on it (if they did, they didn't mention it),because in hindsight I feel like I was real obvious today.

[Thomith]

I'll Roleblock whichever of Gamma/imaginality we don't lim today

If we go to Night 2, and there is No Kill, please wait for my result before we speedlim I guess, just in case Mafia No Kill to fake a Guilty.

[Thomith]

Gamma already claimed VT I believe

[Thomith]

Imaginality made it sound like they were going to claim something, so may be worth waiting, but tbh if they claim something I feel like they just get hammered anyway so I guess so.

If you hammer Imaginality and the game doesn't end, to confirm, if you Roleblock Gamma and I'll Rolecop Kyouko. Game should be solved after that.

[Thomith]

GG.

Yeah this setup looks like it is easily an auto town win if there is one mafia dead and two town PRs with the ability to clear by the start of Day 2 - I almost outright just full claimed so much sooner than I ended up doing and asked if there was a role blocker, because I knew if there was we literally just win.

I'll probably be down to play this setup again , would just depend on when the game happens because ima be a little busy for a few weeks, but we'll see.

[Thomith]

If we eliminated the Mafia PR rather than the Goon Day 1, Mafia at least still have a chance.
Strangely, I think in most setups in 09:12, if the Goon is the Day 1 lim, Mafia probably just straight up lose.

[Thomith]

Like, if Cobb was the Rolecop here, only Elements can get a straight guilty on someone and is the only one that can clear people properly.

In this scenario, I could only clear Elements, otherwise I cant clear anyone as everyone else would investigate as Vanilla - which also means I could no longer get a hard guilty either.
Makes the game a less sure fire win for Town.

[Thomith]

I don't even think its necessarily a scum dying day 1 that's the issue, its that specifically Mafia Goon dying day 1 meant Rolecop is able to get hard clears while still being able to get hard guilties.

If Goon doesn't die day 1, I cant hard clear Puff, so we would only have had 2 clears Day 2 rather than 4, which isnt as hopeless.

[Thomith]

I also never hard claim with a Vanilla result on Day 2 if the Goon is alive, unless it's to directly CC someone.

I also die Day 1 if Enchant doesnt hammer it feels like. I was typing my hammer post but Enchant beat me to it, so Day 2 goes very differently if I managed to hammer instead.

[Thomith]

Night 1*

[Thomith]

I almost feel like this setup might be less swingy if its 12p or 13p with 3 mafia tbh.

[Thomith]

Yeah I guess the D1 scum elimination makes things much different - scum rolecop just feels really weak though, especially versus hypoclaims where by the time you've found a PR on N1 using the rolecop ability, the PR results are already out there. If you find them on N2 I guess scum knows who

not

to try to push in 5p ELO on D3

Maybe it's not as bad as I'm thinking - I think the townblock was pretty solid this game after Mizuki was done voting me, although Elements roleblocked Mizuki so maybe it wasn't as strong as I thought.

I suspected Mizuki for the entirety of Day 1 but didnt really know why I felt that way (was mostly gut) so I just never mentioned it