open 896: describing conker (game over)

[fireisredsir]

hi

VOTE: oopsiedaisy

[fireisredsir]

im gonna guess the scum team as elements + dannflor on page 2

i dont care that dannflor hasnt posted yet that's never stopped me

i don't think its dann

[fireisredsir]

see?

scum dann would never

[fireisredsir]

i think the nice thing about this setup is that it does give you some info immediately to talk about bc scum made decisions about who goes where

i guess i don't really have strong opinions about it but my vibe is unironically that dann scum arranges things differently

and on the other side i could pretty easily imagine ari scum setting things up this way

[fireisredsir]

also general heads up that ill probably be less active compared to previous games

idk we'll see

[fireisredsir]

i guess my thought process with dann went like:

i see the groups -> my eye is immediately drawn to dann as someone who like stands out as someone i want to focus on and sort in our group -> i think dann would probably want to avoid this singular focus bc he is dann the deepwolf -> dann probably doesn't make that choice as scum

[fireisredsir]

not specifically me just like the general composition of the group i guess

[fireisredsir]

ok actually i guess if he's scum with ari then he might. i could believe that

[fireisredsir]

i think that you would be confident in your ability to not be the first lim in the small hood, and i think that kind of narrow focus plays to your strengths. you can just tunnel a townie and yeet them while not leaving any associations behind

idk if there's like a standard for where people lim first in this setup idr if ive ever read a game of it. but either way

i don't think you being in the small hood makes you more likely to be scum but i think it is pretty believable that scum!you would want to go there. like compared to ydra for example i am a little more ehhh on the prospect of her choosing that path

[fireisredsir]

more important yes but like anyone could not be the first lim in the big hood. it doesn't take much to accomplish that i think

does this setup tend to play out with the small hood not mattering? that seems weird to me but idk

[fireisredsir]

according to wiki there's been 6 of these and in 4 of those they went for small hood first

in the other 2 they hit scum in the big hood and instawon lol

even if it's been higher success rate to go for big hood, it seems a little silly to say the small hood doesn't matter?

[fireisredsir]

but like anyone could not be the first lim in the big hood. it doesn't take much to accomplish that i think

i do take this back lol. maybe it isn't so easy

[fireisredsir]

elements feels like their position on ari developed as a result of ari's read on ydra (which sets up a 1v1) rather than being a natural result of their own read on ydra or ari

[fireisredsir]

elements feels like their position on ari developed as a result of ari's read on ydra (which sets up a 1v1) rather than being a natural result of their own read on ydra or ari

yes

[fireisredsir]

why can't ydra be the scum in the small hood fypov

[fireisredsir]

how do you set up the neighborhoods as scum fire

i probably would have put more thought into the setup than i currently have so idk

i think id probably stack a hood with people i know just bc its fun

[fireisredsir]

the line of logic from dann and daisy here is also what i was thinking for ari over ydra being more likely to opt into small hood

idk elements' scum style

[fireisredsir]

elements/knott imo

[fireisredsir]

elements who do you think is scum in the big hood?

[fireisredsir]

i mean i read it as kind of tongue in cheek

but all of your posts have this kind of "oh im just joking around playing fast and loose hehe look at me" type vibe that feels... like you're taking it a little too far?

it feels like you're trying a little too hard to be carefree

similar vibe is why i thought the vote on knott felt like they felt pressured into making it

[fireisredsir]

Fire, Daisy, Meuh

i read this as a suspect list, are you saying it was a townread list?

[fireisredsir]

is fire's terrible push on elements in the room with us now?

the extra naked vote on top of two others is super in character for elements, there's nothing scummy about it at all imo.

i don't think it's scummy if you disregard the context

that said, i misunderstood what elements' reads were at the time so now i think it's a lot more believable for it to be a town move

[fireisredsir]

el is known for running up any wagon they see, they even put a disclaimer saying they wanted to avoid doing it to cause e-1's this game here:

Before anyone says anything I'm not planning on trying to push anyone to e-1 early this game

my point was that it felt more like "i have to do this in order to look town" rather than something they actually wanted to do

[fireisredsir]

its not impossible but i think its a little unlikely that ari as scum would see a gamestate where things were kinda dead and nothing was happening, and decide to break that by starting a wagon on knott

it's like a pretty proactive, get things moving, prod the town to life sort of play

and she could just not do that

[fireisredsir]

idk maybe

i just remember looking at the thread a few times and wishing someone would do something to move the game forward and then she did

so that maybe made it feel extra towny to me

[fireisredsir]

I don't think I'd characterize my scum play as pretending to be wallpaper but thank you for the vote of confidence fireisredsir

okay, sorry.

[fireisredsir]

oh. ok! :>

i might read too much into things

and i am still remembering how to play this game

[fireisredsir]

this is going to be so embarrassing if the one time I don't scumread you you're actually mafia

pocketed

[fireisredsir]

idk maybe

i just remember looking at the thread a few times and wishing someone would do something to move the game forward and then she did

so that maybe made it feel extra towny to me

I think if I am scum and I am presented with a dead game state I tend to view that as an opportunity to take control of the game and/or get town cred. Not taking action usually just hands the initiative off to a townie who is willing to do it instead.

Why didn't you do something to move the game forward?

that's probably true

and idk im shy uwu

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: fire

What makes you want to vote fire?

knott wagon: 2 consecutive votes, elements responds by joining the wagon
my wagon: 2 consecutive votes, elements responds by questioning the wagon

what caused the difference in response?

[fireisredsir]

i thought that evaporated

[fireisredsir]

Spoiler: Pages 6-12

126 - this doesn't really track to me. It seems like fire has thought about the setup quite a bit

128 - Elements trying to take the attention off of the small hood. It feels like she's doing it in a different way than Ari was earlier, but that feeling could just be coming from my vibe townread on Ari. Not sure what to make of Elements not voting much or trolling at all in this game but she definitely feels different

131 - I like this thought but I've never played with Ydra so I'm not sure how accurate it is

143 - not liking this WIFOM on a gut level but I don't really think it's AI

148 - this post made me double check the playerlist. Project isn't even in the game

152 - Locktowning this

Afrayed wagon on Page 8 is interesting. Not seeing the scumminess in Afrayed's posting but I think this could just be a reaction wagon of some sort

185 and some of Oopsie's previous posts gives me Elements/Oopsie paranoia

I like Dann's read in 185

203 - "Not Daisy or Meuh" ...would Elements include her scum buddy here? Maybe so if it's with one other person but idk. I don't know why Meuh gets a pass

213 - great question by Dann. Vibing town with Dann so far

Oopsie is defending Elements

a lot

on page 9. I don't think a partner really goes to this extreme to defend their buddy so much

217 - I like this question by Ydra

221 - Kind of a weird take by Afrayed here. There's more to the game so far than friendly jokes between familiar players

I like Afrayed's responses on page 10 though. Vibing town here as well

Ari's sharpness from earlier continues on page 11. It feels like she's trying to sort Afrayed here

258 - I'm really sorry to hear this Afrayed

I like Oopsie's 269 and the ensuing Fire wagon

279 mindmelding with this thought from Ydra even though my Elements/Oopsie paranoia has lessened a bit

And here we are

First thoughts fresh off the read is that Ari, Dann, and Afrayed feel pretty townie. Oopsie is a townlean. Not feeling great about Fire, Elements, and Meuh. Fire/Elements is my gut solve. Maybe Meuh/Elements

I like the Fire wagon but I don't really want to put it at e-1, so...

VOTE: Elements

i pretty much agree with these reads except for the part where you scumread me

and im still a little skeptical of oopsie but eh

[fireisredsir]

and im still a little skeptical of oopsie but eh

Can I ask why?

my first read on the game was that you and elements back and forth in the first 3 pages felt a little overly constructed and unnatural to me. like it felt like a topic that you knew you had to talk about but it felt more like going through the motions to me, especially the thought process in 18. and 54 into 55 into no reply just felt like a strange interaction. that was why i voted you, and told ari that her dann/elements solve was wrong cause it wasn't dann

but then when i read your game where you were scum with elements, there wasn't really a similar playful-but-stiff vibe to your interactions, so i lost a little interest in that solve. i did notice though that you seemed pretty comfortable with coming up with thoughts and there was an element of trying to establish footing in the game that felt familiar. which at least made me hesitant to townread you for that type of play

at this point i don't really feel any strong active scumread feelings towards you but i also don't feel like i have a lot of leads in the big hood either. i thought knott was scummy until his "nope i have no reads" in the face of a wagon felt a little towny to me. meuh is a scumlean i guess but more due to having a quieter presence, i don't really know how to read meuh, im usually wrong. black slot and dann feel fine to me

[fireisredsir]

why did you townread me in the first place? that was always what my iso looked like

[fireisredsir]

me about everything

[fireisredsir]

to expand, i think it is more focused on looking good than actually getting alignment indicative content from knott

i also think 257 is kinda awkward and pockety?

for the knott part, it didn't seem off to me, i think he tries to reach out to people like that as town (usually giving them like, one chance) if she isn't confident that they're scum

the pocket on me probably worked though

[fireisredsir]

typo obviously. she

[fireisredsir]

we had this discussion earlier and i did look at the other runs of this. it's mostly been small hood lim first (4 to 2) but the big hood lims have been more successful

[fireisredsir]

i do not get what you mean

[fireisredsir]

meuh was saying the opposite (which makes sense)

[fireisredsir]

meuh said that limming in small hood there is the upside of being a higher chance of hitting scum, but the downside being that there's still a wide pool to look through for associatives, and if we focused on the small hood there might not be many anyway

i do not understand what elements was trying to say, the logic feels backwards

[fireisredsir]

i had a dream that meuh said "sorry everyone but you can stop voting me, im not a deepwolf" and then i was gonna say "true, you're a shallow wolf" but then i thought that sounded mean so i didn't

[fireisredsir]

After reading the setup my first thought was to fade in the small hood because I liked the odds but fading in the big hood is definitely more intriguing

it feels like a double edge sword, if we fade in the big group we can win, but we also only get assosiatives with 3 players? (kinda, not really but you get what I mean) But limmin in the small group we can get 6 assosiatives to look at ya know?

So to try and explain further with examples:
Day 1 we lim a town in the big hood
Big hood players 1 is actively pushing for the mislim
Small hood players 1 is pushing for a mislim but also protecting someone
The reverse being true for mislimming in the small hood but the protecting associatives can be looked at for 6 players rather than 3
Does that make more sense?

actually yes i think so

it isnt how i would think about it but i follow what you're saying at least

[fireisredsir]

I still wanna sheep Ydra meta stuff and on the surface I like what she's posting

fwiw for me at least the early meta stuff i was thinking about on dann/ydra/ari was mostly just a starting point before we had real posts to look at. im not really taking that into account much at this point (it's always fun to try, but i don't think trying to predict that sort of thing is super likely to be accurate) so idk if i would recommend sheeping it

but i do generally like ydra's posting as well, feels more like she's doing things bc there's actual thoughts behind them rather than for the sake of making it look like she has thoughts

[fireisredsir]

@Fire you are scum

no!!!!

[fireisredsir]

Fire did say he was bored in the hood 10 minutes before I started posting and then didn't show up, that deserves a vote at least

i was off reading toriel's patience since you linked it actually lol

i agree that is a pretty towny ydra but my instinct is that there's just different flavors and i think the solving energy feels similar there to here in terms of where she finds a point she's interested in and prods at it

[fireisredsir]

Fire did say he was bored in the hood 10 minutes before I started posting and then didn't show up, that deserves a vote at least

Yea I'm interested to hear if he has any thoughts on your return considering how much he and Dann were anticipating it.

my immediate read is that the meuh return feels a lot like the town meuh that ive previously incorrectly interpreted as scum meuh

im not like entirely sure what scum meuh actually looks like though

[fireisredsir]

For the sake of taking a stance, your return initially threw me off a bit with the "BAD!!!!!" posting accusations. It read to me as annoyance that you were being pushed and wanted to lash out moreso than good thought-out posting.

do you think this is more likely to come from scum?

[fireisredsir]

Fire did say he was bored in the hood 10 minutes before I started posting and then didn't show up, that deserves a vote at least

Yea I'm interested to hear if he has any thoughts on your return considering how much he and Dann were anticipating it.

my immediate read is that the meuh return feels a lot like the town meuh that ive previously incorrectly interpreted as scum meuh

im not like entirely sure what scum meuh actually looks like though

to elaborate on this (and the question i asked daisy) i think there is a sort of indignance to being pushed and confidence in the face of that where its like "oh yeah? well this is what i think." and i think my gut instinct is to see that as blustery and faked but in the past that instinct has been wrong

i think her engagement with ydra and trying to explain a thought that maybe isn't super explainable and the notes of frustration that comes along with that feels towny as well

[fireisredsir]

For the sake of taking a stance, your return initially threw me off a bit with the "BAD!!!!!" posting accusations. It read to me as annoyance that you were being pushed and wanted to lash out moreso than good thought-out posting.

do you think this is more likely to come from scum?

Depends on the player and their meta, and I don't know Meuh's. In general I'd say it's slightly scummy but I acknowledge a lot of that comes from a personal preference towards good faith interactions and not anything super backed by mafia theory.

i would say mafia generally has more motivation to look like they're having good faith interactions with the people pushing them, because they know they're town and often want them on their side

whereas the lack of knowledge that town has can sometimes lead to more lashing out and annoyance at being pushed

not that being nice is scummy or anything like that, but i think that the information that scum has about people's alignment can make interactions have a different flavor

and like in this particular case i don't really see why that would be a reaction that scum meuh would have here except for trying to imitate a town meuh. in which case why can't it just simply be a town meuh

[fireisredsir]

i have played with scum meuh and have read i think every scum meuh game, i was just saying that in the past ive incorrectly applied lessons learned from those

im noncommittal bc historically ive been pretty bad at reading her

[fireisredsir]

probably a better phrased statement in 470 would have been "i don't know for sure how to notice the signs of what scum meuh looks like"

[fireisredsir]

well that's my issue rn is that everyone feels kinda towny to me. or at least not very scummy. which tends to make me think that it's more likely to be someone who is holding a decent position of game control

if i were to guess id say it's daisy but i don't think i have good reasons for that, it's more of a gut thing, and possibly partially a reaction to what i feel like are people townreading her too easily

i think if it's dann scum then he's playing with the intention of specifically not looking like scum!dann in a way that would be kind of awkward and probably unsuccessful to accomplish his goals so im not too worried about that rn

id say second guess would probably be you, i don't think i have a particularly compelling reason to townread you at the moment

[fireisredsir]

having looked at some other knott games i think my previous bar for his posting may have been a little low. he's been townier. but the recent posts are decent enough

[fireisredsir]

daisy did you have any thoughts on 474? do you disagree?

[fireisredsir]

I'ma be real I don't buy into the Ydrasse push right now either. A lot of what I read from your end felt more like paranoia than a reasoned scumread.

this too is like, not a reason to scumread someone. saying it "felt like paranoia" when paranoia is only something that town can experience doesn't really explain why you're suspicious of it

what makes you think this is more likely to come from scum?

[fireisredsir]

mafia also need to get players pushed out, playing in survival mode is only going to get you so far so mafia can't just rely on having good faith interactions with townies for the win. It is necessary for their win con to engage in bad faith. 

she's calling you town so i don't see how her calling your posting bad is helping to push you out or playing to scum wincon. i still don't understand what you actually think is scummy here

it just feels to me like you are in a comfortable position with me and meuh being the wagons and are unnaturally resistant to changing that state of things. i don't think that the reasons you have for that really add up and it doesn't feel like you're interested in genuinely evaluating who is scum

[fireisredsir]

my point is more that i don't see the towniness in meuh the same way i see it in dann, black & afrayed's play. which sure in essence makes the poe between you and meuh and therefore a scumread but the scumread comes from the play of others not the play of meuh in particular.

hmmm ok

[fireisredsir]

yea idk im like 75% that he's just not been around. i think him actively avoiding the thread in this situation isn't much more likely to happen if he's scum, if at all, so i don't really get it

[fireisredsir]

maybe it was just awkward for him to re-enter thread and actually interact with meuh when she's ateing because he doesn't know how to close her without making himself look bad and he hopes Black will push her over the edge for him.

it feels like he doesnt want to be here and I can see why he'd not want to be here if black!town is pushing meuh!town for him and he can just kind of cheer from the sidelines.

like this feels like kind of a stretch to me in several ways

- i don't think dann would really believe that meuh would be likely to go over without his active support
- i don't think it would be a particularly difficult thread state for him to navigate
- i don't think it would help him long term as scum to be conspicuously absent while town pushes town. that's likely to look significantly worse than being present

[fireisredsir]

Is there any other reason you scumread Dannflor? I don't think he's been on the site today

i felt like the way he responded to me saying he was town for scumreading me for being nice felt somewhat guilty in a weird way

i don't really see that as alignment indicative. i think he just felt bad for making what you called an icky read and regretted phrasing it that way. which i can very much relate to

[fireisredsir]

maybe it was just awkward for him to re-enter thread and actually interact with meuh when she's ateing because he doesn't know how to close her without making himself look bad and he hopes Black will push her over the edge for him.

it feels like he doesnt want to be here and I can see why he'd not want to be here if black!town is pushing meuh!town for him and he can just kind of cheer from the sidelines.

like this feels like kind of a stretch to me in several ways

- i don't think dann would really believe that meuh would be likely to go over without his active support
- i don't think it would be a particularly difficult thread state for him to navigate
- i don't think it would help him long term as scum to be conspicuously absent while town pushes town. that's likely to look significantly worse than being present

ok but i just played a game with scum!dann where he basically chilled while I fought with another loud town player so its kind of like deja vu to me

thats fair i guess. do you think that was an intentional choice by him though?

[fireisredsir]

lets say you're right though fire

who is the mafia in the big group then?

my current vote is daisy

[fireisredsir]

i think i feel a little stronger about that now than i did then. i felt like she was overly comfortable with just having me and meuh as poe because she townreads everyone else, and it felt like she wasn't interested in tackling the issue of who is actually scum

its fine to not know who is scum but it felt like there was a level of pushback against advancing her worldview in a solving direction, not just that she wasn't sure which direction to look

[fireisredsir]

my phrasing there was confusing i think but hopefully the point makes some sense

[fireisredsir]

lets say you're right though fire

who is the mafia in the big group then?

my current vote is daisy

ok but why does daisy unvote at e-1 and back off the meuh mislim if she's mafia? optics?

I'm paranoid about Daisy too but why does she unvote in 526 instead of letting the whole Ari/Elements hammer thing play out if she's scum?

it feels so counter intuitive to do at that spot unless she's mafia with elements and its planned?

idk this is wild to me that you both have this opinion

[fireisredsir]

personally i thought there was like a 2% chance of the day actually ending there

[fireisredsir]

you asking elements if you should hammer just looked like a very obvious reaction test i didn't think you were actually ever going to

[fireisredsir]

it seems extremely intuitive to me to unvote there as maf so its just very baffling to me that you think it would be unlikely

if it was just ari thinking that id say partnered but idk why black thinks so too

[fireisredsir]

like maybe im bad at maf or something but if i were in daisy's shoes i think my instinct would be to unvote in that situation like 9 times out of 10

unless i thought there was a threat of me dying instead that day i think its just like almost always better

[fireisredsir]

i think going in straight lines is better a lot of the time tbh

but i also think daisy is less likely to be that type of scum player

[fireisredsir]

thats fair i guess

i guess my perspective on it is that i had like right before this just been pushing pretty hard for her to explain her meuh vote and the final conclusion was basically "i dont have a scumread it's just poe"

and i think if i were in that position i would be pretty wary about immediately after having my weakly supported vote contribute to a death, when there was the opportunity to unvote. i think that would draw a lot of eyes the following day

so if it were me id be kinda antsy to unvote already and would gladly take an opportunity that looked like being reflective and towny and all that

the only downside is if people somehow turn on her and lim her instead but that seems pretty unlikely since most people townread her. town is gonna die either way, doesn't matter if it's meuh now or someone else later. and maybe it's better for it to be someone else bc then meuh is left for later as one of those slots that people feel pressured that they "need to resolve"

[fireisredsir]

waiting a few minutes is possible but idk personally i think its almost worse to have town get hammered while lingering on a wagon that you don't really belong on (again, if there's no real threat)

[fireisredsir]

i made a mental note of it but i don't usually dig into people voting me

it's probably a flaw i guess but i don't really enjoy doing it and i don't often get much out of it anyway

[fireisredsir]

you're welcome to share your reasons if you'd like though

[fireisredsir]

good night!!

[fireisredsir]

imo it would have looked really out of place if they said basically anything else so it's hard to judge what they actually wanted

if i were to guess, id lean towards thinking they didn't care if you did, but i also think as a chaos agent there's like a solid chance they'd say "do it" anyway even if partnered with meuh

[fireisredsir]

 I said I was gonna be busy and then the questions came in and I answered them in a way where I was hoping to sorta cut off the questioning and yea. On the one hand prolly shouldn't have been staring at the game and playing whilst round a friend's but on the other I'm glad I was there to unvote before the possible hammer came through.

the play that i took issue with was prior to the day where you said you would be busy so idk why you keep bringing that up. your answers to my questions that day were fine

[fireisredsir]

tbh i think you made a mistake putting me in small hood rather than big because even if we 1v1 here and you win you're still kind of losing if they deadsheep me tomm which is why you cant really hardpush me here.

what has you convinced that dann is scum i still don't really feel like ive heard what prompted this belief

[fireisredsir]

idk if im just reading dann's posts more charitably but it feels like ari is repeatedly arguing against points that dann isn't making

[fireisredsir]

The issue is I don't know how to solve Fire because he's mostly just been pushing me in recent pages and I don't know how to separate my bias from just objectively analysing the push. It's completely broke my brain lol. Like I think the push is just a bit shit and uses one mid read of mine to justify continuing to sit on me for the entire game, but it doesn't look like anyone in the game actually agrees with me on this so is it just bias?

sorry

im not like super confident so im trying to give you some space to do other things to see what happens

i was feeling like the back and forth wasn't very productive, and im aware you said you don't do well as town under pressure so it's probably not the best sorting tool

it's probably unfair of me to pick on one specific moment but i haven't really seen other things from the big hood that have jumped out to me as scum-indicative

[fireisredsir]

UNVOTE:

don't really like how this wagon has developed. ill be back later

[fireisredsir]

@Fire Do you have any opinions on the players in the small hood out of interest?

elements - initially thought they were the scummiest of the three, but their latest engagement with you i thought was much more towny than they had been previously. felt like they were proactively digging into your play and trying to sort, and there was just an energy behind it that felt like town


ydra - she's been fine. don't have a lot to say on her rn, can't call her solidly town at all but i think its more likely so far. waiting on what she says/does once she's back in thread


ari - probably scum i guess. i think her push on dann is uncharacteristic of town!her, i can't recall a time ive seen a push from her as town feel as forced and unconvincing. the "weakness" of the push isn't about her conviction in the read or how hard she's pushing, which she argued against in 688, but about the case itself being weak. it's possible that it is like a TvT miscommunication situation where they're talking past each other but it doesn't really feel that way to me, the misinterpretations seem intentional in order to continue to prop up the push

another point that i keep coming back to here is her posting in response to my suspicion of you, particularly 564 but also the posts surrounding it, reminded me SO MUCH of turing test where scum!ari was trying to convince me her buddies were not scum. it's hard to quantify exactly but the way she was talking to me set off alarm bells for me. ill admit i was teamsolving a little bit there and that factored into my read on you, but im trying not to get too tied up in that hypothetical

some example posts:

Spoiler: from turing test

Subject: Open 861: The Turing Test [game over]

bell - scum
kuti - scum
dann - town

Feeling kind of tempted to sheep fire becuz he was so kind to win Frenemies for me after I was tragically murdered at night by someone I never expected to kill me but I will feel sort of dumb if Dann is scum here >.>

like what do you actually expect Scum!Dann to do in this game with a weak team ?

the way I think about the scum team win condition is;

they all have to get through the gauntlet

eventually

like regardless of what the scum team is - the way they win the game is to get the town to flip the other person - which more or less means the scum players have to each pass through the gauntlet unless they win early, and it means the scum team necessarily must be revealed over time - similar to perpetual mylo except the scum have some extra agency in terms of getting to pick the gladiate.

The best way for the scum to do this is to set up associative pushes that look good on D1 so that as they are flipped, one flip begets another.

Like let's say someone like Bell who is pretty bad at scum[no offense Bell] is on the scum team.

The scum team would necessarily see Bell as somewhat of a liability, he basically is unable to replicate his town!meta when he's scum, he's just kind of a sitting duck.

So the best way to cash that liability into something good for the scum team is to push him D1, cash him in for towncred early - Bell even had the early vote on Kitty to establish distancing that way so that if Bell goes down Kitty gets somewhat reflected Towncred.

It feels like the whole bus Bell for Cred plan didn't work out for Dann because Bell wasn't as obvscum as people required for him to actually go down and eventually kitty became more or less inevitable.

Once Kitty went down and scored a point for town, the calculus regarding Bell kind of changes - it's not really viable to bus him at that point because going down 2-0 is basically a death sentence, so the scum have to get him through the gauntlet

somehow

.

There's two ways Bell/Dann!scum can go as a team.

Bell first and then Dann

or Dann first and then Bell.


It feels incredibly hard for Bell -> Dann to work out for the scum because it would look very strange for Dann to suddenly flip his read of Bell on a dime, can he get away with readflipping, getting Bell home and then escape intact himself? I think that's very tricky for him to do. Remember he has to be able to navigate that readflip without anything from Bell

and

survive with enough towncred to get himself out safely.

Otherwise he's stuck double-bussing and playing from 0-2 down which is kind of difficult even against a town that's flipping coins atp.

Dann flipping first however would generate towncred for Bell because it creates distance since Dann was trying to yeet Bell on D1. It's a much cleaner transition for the scum team and I think it just makes sense strategically as a play than the other way around.

Now in the Town!Dann Scum!Bell world; you'd have Bell deciding to hardbus Kitty d1, and then hardbus Kuti d2 and it feels super ~throwy~ ? like the play is so bad for scum I just can't see scum Bell deciding to play that way.

so scum bell is repelling us off the scum wagon by acting as a town repellent

thats so big brain though

[fireisredsir]

Is there a reason your vote isn't on Ari then, if you think she's probably scum?

not really no

felt like i was still waiting for people to catch up ig

[fireisredsir]

in hindsight my initial reasoning about dann is kind of funny bc i have largely ignored sorting him so far

[fireisredsir]

elements feels like their position on ari developed as a result of ari's read on ydra (which sets up a 1v1) rather than being a natural result of their own read on ydra or ari

hmhmhm

okay but why would scum!elements want to 1v1 aristeia in this position

(though elements then immediately returns to 'but i wanna focus on the big hood' which, eh, could be because of your drawing attention to it but also consistent with earlier, so)

i thought it felt like they felt forced into it, not that they wanted to

[fireisredsir]

idk elements' scum style

[fireisredsir]

tried to catch up but brain feels fuzzy and i didn't get a lot out of it ill have to reread again later

dann's thing about me having a linguistic tell is occupying more of my brain than this game is rn which is not productive at all but im so curious

shiki feels like town on a skim but i was super snowed by it from spec one time so im a little wary

[fireisredsir]

dann you said that you don't expect this level of unmotivated play from town black or something like that. do you expect it from scum black?

i dont really have that experience but i can't remember how well i know black's scumplay

[fireisredsir]

5 minutes ago my brain decided that dann is scum but it's gone again i think

[fireisredsir]

doubt the things you were snowed by are particularly similar to things in this game (assuming you are referring to the medeia game)

no there was something specific where i saw it here and thought "ok town" but then remembered and had to revise that reaction

it's hard to put a finger on but it's a certain energy behind your posts that shows up sometimes and looks towny to me but apparently is replicable

[fireisredsir]

5 minutes ago my brain decided that dann is scum but it's gone again i think

was there anything specific or just a wandering "feels right" moment

came about from just thinking back on what you've done this game and angles you've taken. i think the standout was that confidence on the black push felt wrong to me

felt like there was something missing. the thought processes feel less developed than i expect or something like that

but then i decided that may be due to not making as much of a show of them. also im not really sure why you as scum turn on black at that point, it feels like a move that loses you a lot of position in the game when you were pretty comfortable

[fireisredsir]

alright im back

i don't want to lim shiki i think

[fireisredsir]

maybe ari is town tbh

VOTE: oopsie daisy

UNVOTE:

can you add subtitles to these

[fireisredsir]

alright im back

i don't want to lim shiki i think

What do we do then, please guide me Fire

my guidance is don't be guided by me

[fireisredsir]

i believe in you

[fireisredsir]

only town posted on this page imo

[fireisredsir]

im so stupid i read the post explaining the scumslip and my brain was like "hmm i don't understand this post it feels like it was meant for a different thread. scumslip perhaps???"

[fireisredsir]

only town posted on this page imo

callback to coalition

pretty sure it was wrong then too

[fireisredsir]

1111 make a wish

[fireisredsir]

im gonna start using words at random from scumgames ive played until dann votes me. nobody tell him

[fireisredsir]

i think its actually like a pretty good strategy to say we're gonna lim in the big hood and run a bunch of people up and then pivot at the last moment and resolve the small hood instead

that gives us like max info of small hood maf potentially defending their partners from a legitimate threat

[fireisredsir]

@dannflor @elements @meuh

like do you really believe that's what happened here? and if so like, ...why?

and if not then hey let's actually find the scums if you're town yeah?

and speaking of that i feel like the small hood players could very well just be confident that they can force a lim onto someone who isn't their partner from outside the big hood

which again is why i thought ari was a good stylistic fit for small hood and the timing of her starting up a dann tunnel while also trying to pry me away from the oopsie push does like neatly fit into a worldview there

[fireisredsir]

she did! that was a reaction

[fireisredsir]

you don't think a ydra red flip would help us solve the big hood?

[fireisredsir]

maybe you meant pointless in an existential sense

which is fair ill accept that

[fireisredsir]

i don't think ydra is partnered with meuh

[fireisredsir]

i think if people are just stuck hopping from one wagon to the next unsure of who they actually wanna vote for we should just vote in the small hood. i think there's been enough action today that associatives exist for a lot of people between big hood/small hood gamers anyways so i don't think we lose info voting in the small hood.

who do you want to lim in the small hood

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: ari

[fireisredsir]

i feel like all of the small hood gives us info on a flip especially if they're scum and i don't really get why "no info???" keeps being presented as a counterargument here

[fireisredsir]

elements probably gives the most info of the three so thats definitely a wild take

[fireisredsir]

my heart says that was tmi-ing elements as town actually because i cannot understand how someone could think a red elements flip wouldn't give us info

[fireisredsir]

there's even 3 to choose from

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: daisy

[fireisredsir]

are we only allowed to flip someone whose potential townflip would achieve something

[fireisredsir]

like we're trying to find scum here

info is not our primary goal

[fireisredsir]

i call

[fireisredsir]

so do you really think i’m 60+% to be mafia right now

I don't think Dann, Daisy, Knott or Fire are red
So to me you or meuh and ari or Ydra are the same

this was a pretty wild post i guess

[fireisredsir]

That was a fake read list to see how shiki would react

hm

[fireisredsir]

what did you learn from shiki's reaction

[fireisredsir]

i am scared it's true

[fireisredsir]

UNVOTE:

[fireisredsir]

wanted to go look at the elements/daisy scumgame again

came out of it thinking there's more similarities here for elements than for daisy

[fireisredsir]

elements/knott imo

this was right maybe

[fireisredsir]

i think the funniest solution to this game is, like, afrayed/elements and that's why it took ages for the game to actually start/neighborhoods to be sorted, and both of them lack a lot of meta information that we've been discussing here and that's why things seem wack

ayy

[fireisredsir]

or maybe the wolves put our names into randomizers to forgo the evil of meta

optimal strat honestly

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: elements

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: elements

*eyeroll*

?

[fireisredsir]

i didn't expect to be voting el either but im looking at more meta and i think i gave them a pass too easily

[fireisredsir]

that one i think could go either way but yeah not specifically a scum thing

[fireisredsir]

im confused why afrayed's first post feels like it's mostly saying the shiki slot is towny and then it ends with a vote on shiki

i don't really get where the scumread came from

im not sure its like a scummy thing even because why??? im just confused

[fireisredsir]

i won't be able to post a ton btw but ill check this when i can

[fireisredsir]

i think elements is just pushing wherever is convenient at the time i don't think they have real reads

and if their reads get called out as not making sense they just say "oh that was fake for a reaction test" and then make no indication that they actually cared about making reads off the reaction

idk where their scumread on me went it just disappeared when there wasn't pressure on me anymore. idk even where it came from in the first place

[fireisredsir]

i don't even think that should be clearing

id be alright with a switch to ari though

[fireisredsir]

PLEASE DO

[fireisredsir]

if that's what it will take can we wagon me

[fireisredsir]

i need socks

[fireisredsir]

id be surprised if ive ever said the word socks before as either alignment

[fireisredsir]

it's now a 100% accurate towntell

[fireisredsir]

if you and elements are both voting meuh and the choice is between ari and meuh id rather vote ari

[fireisredsir]

im still kinda hung up on thinking it's elements

[fireisredsir]

if you and elements are both voting meuh and the choice is between ari and meuh id rather vote ari

to be clear this was meant to be a line of logic not a statement of read preference

[fireisredsir]

although that's also my read preference

[fireisredsir]

lim el

[fireisredsir]

so much info

[fireisredsir]

hello, sorry, ill probably be up for talking in a day or two if you all don't mind taking the day a bit slow

[fireisredsir]

hi umm i haven't thought about this game in like a week. ill catch up later tonight

my instinct of a starting point rn is that dann is town bc i do not think the way him vs ari went down is partnered. the general structure of it maybe but i think when ari busses (and she does enjoy bussing) she tends to have like a convincing case. i think thats something she's pretty good at as scum. and just a lot of little things with their interactions didn't feel like they made sense from partners

[fireisredsir]

what are your thoughts on ari arranging the hoods in the way she did if she’s partnered with Afrayed?

You were using that as a defense earlier on D1

still think it'd be weird for her to have done so in this way and it's the thing that makes me feel the uneasiest about an afrayed knott/aristeia pairing right now

because sending a newbie to the large neighbourhood and then pushing them and playing in the way aristeia did in general (small neighbourhood doesn't matter etc) really does seem like a lot of added pressure for partner and the split makes more sense for other partners as i said - really for any of the other three of you as you're all strong scum players - but that doesn't make the other factors go away and were afrayed knott an experienced mafia player i think aristeia's play around the slot would make a lot of sense for a partner

if they are partners i kinda wonder if aristeia asked which neighbourhood afrayed knott preferred and afrayed knott chose the large neighbourhood

i think aristeia definitely chose ydrasse to go with her obviously

but then look at the situation we are currently in which is also more or less the situation aristeia was largely playing towards throughout the game it's just a weird situation to throw a newbie into yeah? just don't know how to weigh that against other things

does it change your opinion if afrayed is a relatively experienced mafia player and is perhaps underselling his experience with the "im still learning" thing in 242 etc

[fireisredsir]

I wanna know where fire is at after his top scumspect died

hello!

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: Meuh

has felt like you wanted to fold this hand for a while just can't figure out if because you were unsure or because position pretty doomed

agreed and the development of it seems off

[fireisredsir]

Am I crazy or is that just partnered

idk why you think i go out of my way to make myself look worse by saying that i would switch to ari, knowing that it is likely to happen, only to then announce that i have cold feet once it does happen and then encourage everyone to switch away

like on the list of possible ways for me to play that situation, that response is so far down filed under "intentionally look scummy around a partner in the hopes that people later decide i wouldn't be that dumb" which is a path i very rarely attempt because it doesn't really work

i don't even expect this to be convincing but i still feel compelled to say it

[fireisredsir]

i think elements is just pushing wherever is convenient at the time i don't think they have real reads

and if their reads get called out as not making sense they just say "oh that was fake for a reaction test" and then make no indication that they actually cared about making reads off the reaction

idk where their scumread on me went it just disappeared when there wasn't pressure on me anymore. idk even where it came from in the first place

The most substantial read here is a playstyle oriented thing that I'm not sure town Fire would be comfortable with throwing out there as the basis of a read
Townies are disjointed in their reads all the time, does this make Elements scum?
This feels shallow

to be honest i think it was a little shortsighted of me/forgetting what setup we're playing in a way

bc like my reaction to dann's 1359 was to roll my eyes and be like "ok but we can't let them get away with it if they are scum"

but in hindsight yeah we could have bc the small hood was going to get resolved either way so they were either gonna get towncleared or limmed later. so, i probably should have discounted that aspect which was admittedly influencing my choice of where to vote, but i didn't really think about it rationally at the time



still though i think it's incredibly generous to refer to "they are blatantly fabricating their reads and don't appear to have real thoughts to support the directions they're moving" as "a playstyle oriented thing"

i thought elements' play was scummy. possibly town playing in a scummy way, but more likely just scum. and at the point where ari came back and did some really good posting it was enough to tip me over the edge towards thinking elements was more likely to be scum

and you agreed at the time (even agreeing that their thoughts were made up 1473) so i don't get your point here anyway. you didn't even really give reasoning when voting. why is mine too shallow?

[fireisredsir]

heavily considering just accepting that shiki wins if it's scum and that the possibility is likely slim anyway and just townbinning

[fireisredsir]

went to go read to confirm the choice i had already made and i actually think black's posting around ari is kind of questionable but im going to pretend i didn't see that

[fireisredsir]

its not impossible but i think its a little unlikely that ari as scum would see a gamestate where things were kinda dead and nothing was happening, and decide to break that by starting a wagon on knott

it's like a pretty proactive, get things moving, prod the town to life sort of play

and she could just not do that

reading through again, i actually kind of stand by this, i dont really think she would be very likely to do this, but that's more if knott is town

i wasn't really thinking about the potential world of knott scum at the time

it seems more probable in that world because there's like a very specific targeted goal

[fireisredsir]

only town posted on this page imo

probably true

the vibe still feels correct reading through now

[fireisredsir]

i dunno i don't really think it's meuh

[fireisredsir]

heavily considering just accepting that shiki wins if it's scum and that the possibility is likely slim anyway and just townbinning

this post was probably unhelpful. i do think shiki has been towny

[fireisredsir]

shiki seems very motivated which i kind of inherently dont trust but i dont scum read any of her content today

this is probably along the lines of what i was wrestling with as well. i don't think it is particularly fair to be mistrustful of that but it was still in the back of my mind

i think it does have plenty of motivation to be seen as town when it is town, in addition to the usual solving motivation

[fireisredsir]

other people's impressions of me are always so strange to me like i haven't really felt particularly motivated this game ya know like i'm a fullon zombie right now and can barely even read and there are versions of myself where my spark hasn't been sealed away in some unreachable abyss who would just read 30 games in an attempt to create a model of everyone

however! the paranoia is good if a non-me town is eliminated whoever is the scums should bring me to final three and write a case during the night and vote me at daystart i'll even help with the case if you want

i think "motivated" probably isn't a word that properly encapsulates the feeling

maybe "driven" is better

it's not exactly that there is an overwhelming inspiration to post and to solve and be seen as town and all of that type of energy

it's also i think the nature of your posts feeling relatively like they have a strong direction to them. there's still a lot of asides and such, but the way in which the central flow of ideas moves feels purposeful. maybe more than i would expect it to

this is vague and not something that is necessarily scummy but it is i think a more accurate description of what is in the back of my mind making me wary

[fireisredsir]

oh

[fireisredsir]

ty for mod skyg and ty for playing all, fun time as always

and btw oopsiedaisy you were fun to play with, sorry for suspecting you all game!!

[fireisredsir]

given the flips i now am impressed by rather than wary of shiki's drivenness towards the correct answer here, i think that ended up convincing a lot of the town

or helped me find it at least, i can't speak for everyone