Micro 71: Lucid Dreamers - Night 4

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/bow to T-Bone's grace

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VOTE: Zoidberg

Piggy knows where I'm coming from on this.

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So the proposed plan is no lynch, then a circle of reveal alignment actions?

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Here's a link to the last Lucid Dreamer's game's night actions with a bunch of the same players: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p4440907

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Lucid Dreamers

- Actions that have a condition such as "only use this action if they are nightmares" are disallowed.

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Also:

Lucid Dreamers

-Actions that are gamebreaking, at Mod's discretion, are disallowed.

It seems that if the reveal alignment circle is unbeatable, it's gamebreaking.

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I propose that we not plan out specific night actions. Here's why:

1) I believe T-bone intends to preclude any win guaranteed by pre-planned actions.
2) Any plan known in advance can be thwarted by nightmares
3) Discussion of plans lends itself to game theory discussion which detracts from scum hunting.

On the other hand, I do think we should breadcrumb our intended night actions which is possible since coding our messages is allowed.

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Mit, sorry. If 1) is true then 2) follows. So, if any openly planned set of actions would win regardless of scum's actions then I believe that set of actions would not be allowed. Therefore, any legal plan we do come up with could be thwarted by scum.

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The zoidberg vote is for his stupidity in not submitting an action in the last game.

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Wagon ho!

VOTE: Empking

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You were a random vote. Empking's posting a lot without actual content which makes him actually scummy.

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yep, which is 10% of the game thus far. 5 posts is plenty to do something.

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Piggy things Mit is "no doubt" town yet leaves her vote on him. That's scummy.

UNVOTE: empking
VOTE: PiggyGal15

Vote Count

Activity Check - Siveure has not picked up his role PM, replacements are queued, Siveure has until one of my replacements responds

VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp
Just realized you were here. Come talk.

~both signed by M

Why vote someone who is in the process of being replaced? Given that he hadn't picked up the pm he seems to be a completely null read.

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Referring to me or SD?

~M

SD

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So piggy is now obv scum. Does everyone else see why?

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Such a strong sense of deja vu. Vote confirmed.

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I do, indeed, mind. If someone else asks, I will explain.

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Um, I think we could potentially all do useless and confirmable actions at night, to prevent scum from doing anything except one of those useless yet confirmable actions.

I veto this proposal.

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At this point I think there is exactly one scum between Piggy and Siv.

@qwints: Go on, why is Piggy obvscum? Is it the lack of a vote, as Mist suggested? Or is there something additional?

Piggy is obvscum for several reasons. First, her reads:

Spoiler: reads

Emp, Zoid, Mit, you three are town, no doubt.
No idea about the rest of you.

Qwints

might

be town. We'll see.

[Prohawk] and Mist are my biggest scum reads, though I doubt the interaction between them comes from scumbuddies.

I think [you, Prohawk, are] scummy because you're actually thinking logically.

There are two things here that make her scum. First, she gives no real reason for these reads. Reading her iso, she says that the first three town reads are based on consistent play style and that Prohawk is being too logical. Those are both poor reasons for reads. More important are two factors. The lack of a vote (instead leaving her RVS vote on Mit), and the fact that's she dropped Mist since her first mention of her. Piggy's only mention of Mist is that she is the second of Piggy's two biggest scum reads. That's a scummy move and reeks of distancing to me.

Second, piggy's position that pro-town play like logical, well thought out posts is scummy.

Spoiler: scumtells

I think your scummy because you're actually thinking logically. By now I'm just thinking that's just you, but when I'm looking for scum, I'm looking at who seems to be really putting thought into every single one of their posts. Making them perfect and well-worded and thought out. So far, that's exactly what you've been doing.

You debated on posting your comment... only scum ever are unsure if they should post. Humming and hawing about a comment means you were thinking "Oh, maybe I should re-word this so that I don't get scum points"

Logical, well thought out play is pro-town. Those kinds of posts give town more information to work with. Attacking players for pro-town play is scummy.

Third, piggy's push towards wasting town actions. It's a waste of an action and no one should do it. I'm incredibly suspicious of everyone who's trying to decrease the efficacy of town's night actions by pre-planning them or limiting them to weak actions. Siv is as or more scummy for this.

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You're not scum together, but you're both very scummy.

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Mit, what did the mod say last game about nightmares and guns? He said that only if a person chose to be a vig that night, they would have a gun. Meaning nightmares don't by default have guns. I was being sarcastic about the "scumslip", hence the

Siveure... that... that was just...

Mit, I can take a LONG time to actually post stuff. I put it in, got the PEdit,

then hummed and hawed about actually posting it.

You debated on posting your comment... only scum ever are unsure if they should post. Humming and hawing about a comment means you were thinking "Oh, maybe I should re-word this so that I don't get scum points"

Caught scum, right here.
VOTE: Siveure

If we're neighbourizing people, sorry Mit, we had some fun times, but I'm going with Siveure or Prohawk. I suggest if we do this, the towniest town reads should be put with the scummiest scum reads. That way there's little chance of scum being paired together.

Two things about this post that make me post it in full. First, I don't think scum piggy makes that kind of attack on her scum buddy which is why I don't think they're scum together. Second, can we talk about just how stupid this neighbourizing proposal is? What a waste of an action. Not only is this discussing plans of actions (which is anti-town), it's proposing incredibly weak actions. If scum piggy convinces just one townie to neighborize instead of doing something more useful, she'll have achieved a victory for scum. Piggy needs to be the lynch today.

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She did neighborize in her last game as town which says to me she thinks its a smart move.

Presumably you're pointing to posts like this:

Actually, having been invited into a neighbourhood as scum, there really isn't much sway you can have. If anything, it got more suspicion on me because I was more careless in the quicktopic.

You're certainly right that she advocated that as town. My problem with this line of reasoning is two-fold: 1) First replicating that town meta as scum is trivial since everyone has pretty much constantly referred to Micro 56 and there's no cost to advocating neighborizing ; 2) I don't think anyone can legitimately believe that Piggy's night 1 action actually helped town.

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Acknowledging prod.

Zoidberg unvoted in post 158

Given the nearness of deadline, I think piggy is the obvious lynch for the reasons already cited.

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I think we should be discussing how the hell are we going to act tonight.

I veto this. I will vig someone who insists on it.

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scream, I swear that if either of your heads says anything else about night actions today, I will vig you tonight.

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Zoid, why announce intent to hammer in this sort of game?

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Go on...

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I made myst reflective. If you targeted myst, you actually targeted yourself.

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myst = Mist7676

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Some scattered thoughts:

1) Do we want to mutually agree on someone we think is scummy to make the first vote?
2) I went reflective over protect because I was fairly confident that no one was going to vig. I was going for a scum self-kill.
3) We should remember that there was nothing preventing scum from going double godfather last night

p-edit:

Mist, at this point I think you should reveal exactly how you restricted siv.

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@qwints: But why would they try to kill Mist?

Fear that people would treat Mist as conf-town due to mod error.

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Siv, is it close enough to be a paraphrase? Also, are you scum?

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So Mist, you thought that Siv might try to be "sneaky" in saying "I admit I am scum"?

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Anyone else think Mist's plan seems to dumb to be town?

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In that case, I'm willing to do this:

VOTE: Mist7676

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Mist's night action doesn't make sense for town.

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Mod Note: Some of you may have witnessed my mistake at the end of Night 1. Because of the nature of the game and the way roles are laid out it doesn't mean anything other than me confusing one scummer's name with another, and thus no further action shall be taken by me. Carry on.

The mod explicitly said that you were not cleared by the D1 flip. But that statement was not made during the N1 actions. I had a null read on you at the time, and I thought there was a good chance that scum would try and kill town-myst rather than risk having a "confirmed townie" alive D2. I now know 3 things I didn't know when I protected you.

1) Scum didn't try and kill you.
2) The mod error didn't reveal information (he posted your name with piggy's alignment)
3) You have claimed a night action that doesn't make sense for town.

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Mist's because it has no conceivable benefit for town. What else was going to happen besides: hey guys, I have a post restriction, especially once mist admits it. It does nothing except cause annoyance.

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unvote: Mist

Siv, you speak sense. I need to re-read more, but I'm willing to drink your wine for today at least.

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Scum's failure to kill combined with the fact that no one's claiming protection is really messing with my head. I kind of want to lynch Siv on the general principle that scum wouldn't willingly choose not to kill.

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Siv's admitted to flaking. He failed to submit an action, and I think that's the most likely explanation for a scum no-kill. The problem, of course, is that he told us he flaked.

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Mit, I get that if Siv is scum, then either he made himself godfather, his partner did or you're lying.

Siv's admitted to flaking. He failed to submit an action, and I think that's the most likely explanation for a scum no-kill. The problem, of course, is that he told us he flaked.

Qwints, please explain. Also, how much of the other game did you read?

Read the whole thing, and I know the no-action was from a town player. That doesn't change my analysis.

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Do we really think scum Mist would place a fake post restriction on Scum Siv and neither would kill somebody? The only way I see that happening is one godfathering Siv and the other shooting empking.

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If the post restriction is fake, siv and mist have to be scum.

The delayed kill is certainly an interesting possibility. I could see that being an alternative to an emoting shot.

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It's easy to check, just iso and find "I admit I am scum"

He hasn't violated the restriction.

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Siveure: no action

Empking: made himself untargeteable

qwints: made Mist reflective

Mist: post-restricted Siveure

Mitillos: investigated Siveure - got innocent

ProHawk: made himself a bomb

Scream: investigated Zoidberg - got innocent

Zoidberg: investigated Scream - got innocent

PH, why did you choose bomb?

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I want to see where a scream wagon takes us. Their lack of content today bothers me.

VOTE: screamlampost

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There's enough that bothers me about the post restriction to hammer.

UNVOTE: Scream
VOTE: Mist7676

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V/LA Starting tonight until Sunday. I will be able to get my night action in.

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I made everyone who targeted me bulletproof.

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Siveure: no action
Empking: made himself untargeteable

qwints: made Mist reflective

Mist: post-restricted Siveure

Mitillos: investigated Siveure - got innocent

ProHawk: made himself a bomb

Scream: investigated Zoidberg - got innocent

Zoidberg: investigated Scream - got innocent

Mitillos: investigated qwints - got innocent

qwints: made everyone who targeted him bulletproof"

ProHawk: redirected Mitillos's action to qwints

screamlampost:?

Empking: ?

Siveure DtTrikyp: ?

Zoidberg: ?

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I stand by the Myst lynch - the post restriction made no sense from town and we needed a lynch before deadline.

Some thoughts:

Odds of these 4 accurate innocent investigations if 2 scum:
6/8³ * 5/7 = approx. 30%

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None of the 4 investigations were on Mist or Piggy. That leaves 7 people. There are 7C2 = 21 possible scum teams. If the actual scumteam does not contain one of the 4 investigated people, there are 3C2 = 3 scumteams. The probability of that happening is 3/21 ~= 14.3%. Your calculation doesn't take into account that the investigations were all on different people.

I was answering the question: what is the likelihood that 3 independent random investigations on night 1 and 1 on night 2 would come up town? The question I think you're trying to answer is: what is the prior probability of the scum groups being one of the 3 remaining possibilities? I don't think that's the correct question.

With Zoidberg's results, the odds are around 20% for my question and they're 1/21 for Mit's question. If everyone is telling the truth and got accurate results, we now know that Empking and Mitillos are scum. That would mean that scum-Mit cleared two townies and that mafia no-killed yesterday.

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Let's get those last two actions in before we go further.

Mitillos: Siveure and qwints are innocent
Zoidberg: Scream and ProHawk are innocent
Scream: Zoidberg in innocent

Siveure: no action
Empking: made himself untargeteable

qwints: made Mist reflective

Mist: post-restricted Siveure

Mitillos: investigated Siveure - got innocent

ProHawk: made himself a bomb

Scream: investigated Zoidberg - got innocent

Zoidberg: investigated Scream - got innocent

Mitillos: investigated qwints - got innocent

qwints: made everyone who targeted him bulletproof"

ProHawk: redirected Mitillos's action to qwints

screamlampost:?

Empking: made himself untargetable

Siveure DtTrikyp: ?

Zoidberg: investigated ProHawk- got innocent

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Let's hear scream's action before proceeding further.

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Siveure: no action
Empking: made himself untargeteable

qwints: made Mist reflective

Mist: post-restricted Siveure

Mitillos: investigated Siveure - got innocent

ProHawk: made himself a bomb

Scream: investigated Zoidberg - got innocent

Zoidberg: investigated Scream - got innocent

Mitillos: investigated qwints - got innocent

qwints: made everyone who targeted him bulletproof"

ProHawk: redirected Mitillos's action to qwints

screamlampost: made himself bulletproof

Empking: made himself untargetable

Siveure DtTrikyp: made himself 1 shot day-vig

Zoidberg: investigated ProHawk- got innocent

Siv, how are you conf-town?

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And the reason I did what I did was because I thought there was a good chance multiple town players would target me with investigations or possibly vig-shots after yesteday's hammer. I really thought Myst was a nightmare.

Some night action analysis:

The only person who scum could have tried to kill on night one is Emping. If scum had shot at PH or Mist, they would have died.

Scum could have shot at Empking, scream or Mit on Night 2.

We now have 5 innocent results - meaning that

a) Mit and Empking are scum
b) a cop is lying
c) a cop got bad results (e.g. scum turned into a godfather)

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Lynching someone on the day of the deadline isn't a "co-ordinated hit". I was leaving for BGG.con, and I wanted to make sure we lynched someone before the deadilne.

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Yeah, I meant to ask scream.

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VOTE: Siv
For testing purposes. My top lynch target right now is Empking.

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2 kills would make scum 2/5. That's lylo, but it's not a win. Lynch scum and 1 scum kill and scum are 1/3.

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For the record, the cop investigations are not guaranteed to be false - they just produce the unlikely scum team of empking and mit.

My number 1 target is still epmking.

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Siv, I buy that prohawk went into last night thinking mit and I are scum.

Pro, I see Mit as more likely town. I don't buy scum clearing people two nights into a rown

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I'd support a vigging of empking

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@qwints: But not scream?

That's correct.

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I really don't think siv-scum pulls that move. Unfortunately, T-Bone's quick response seems to have pulled the teeth from the gambit but I'm leaning towards siv-town.

Siv, what was your real night action?

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Siv, do you plan on actually vigging someone today or not?

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I say siv shoots to prove his claim or we lynch him.

My vote is he shoots Empking.

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UNVOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp
VOTE: Empking

Assuming Siv's telling the truth this time.

Siv: Why scream?
Scream: Last words?

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You're not dead until the mod flips you.

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If scream flips nightmare:

I don't believe scum would shoot his partner given that it would be likely to garner him negative attention. There clearly was not a consensus behind a scream-vig with the exception of Mit calling for it. Zoidberg's the obligatory next lynch.

If scream flips dreamer:

Zoidberg looks good (although we should remember that Zoidberg claimed after scream). Siv needs to do a lot of explaining not to be the lynch.

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also
UNVOTE:

until the flip

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Wow, lot of scum for a micro. Empking was a SK?

Night actions?

Thanks for modding T-Bone!

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What was the effect of the give gun actions? Would it make the target show up guilty to a gunsmith?

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I've got a better question: what did ProHawk think he was accomplishing by tracking Zoidberg n3?