Micro 71: Lucid Dreamers - Night 4
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qwints Mafia Scum
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Here's a link to the last Lucid Dreamer's game's night actions with a bunch of the same players: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p4440907-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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qwints Mafia Scum
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I propose that we not plan out specific night actions. Here's why:
1) I believe T-bone intends to preclude any win guaranteed by pre-planned actions.
2) Any plan known in advance can be thwarted by nightmares
3) Discussion of plans lends itself to game theory discussion which detracts from scum hunting.
On the other hand, I do think we should breadcrumb our intended night actions which is possible since coding our messages is allowed.-
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qwints Mafia Scum
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Piggy things Mit is "no doubt" town yet leaves her vote on him. That's scummy.
UNVOTE: empking
VOTE: PiggyGal15
In post 56, T-Bone wrote:Vote Count
Activity Check - Siveure has not picked up his role PM, replacements are queued, Siveure has until one of my replacements responds
In post 58, screamlampost wrote:VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp
Just realized you were here. Come talk.
~both signed by M
Why vote someone who is in the process of being replaced? Given that he hadn't picked up the pm he seems to be a completely null read.-
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qwints
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In post 126, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:
Um, I think we could potentially all do useless and confirmable actions at night, to prevent scum from doing anything except one of those useless yet confirmable actions.
I veto this proposal.-
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At this point I think there is exactly one scum between Piggy and Siv.
In post 113, Mitillos wrote:
@qwints: Go on, why is Piggy obvscum? Is it the lack of a vote, as Mist suggested? Or is there something additional?
Piggy is obvscum for several reasons. First, her reads:
Spoiler: reads
There are two things here that make her scum. First, she gives no real reason for these reads. Reading her iso, she says that the first three town reads are based on consistent play style and that Prohawk is being too logical. Those are both poor reasons for reads. More important are two factors. The lack of a vote (instead leaving her RVS vote on Mit), and the fact that's she dropped Mist since her first mention of her. Piggy's only mention of Mist is that she is the second of Piggy's two biggest scum reads. That's a scummy move and reeks of distancing to me.
Second, piggy's position that pro-town play like logical, well thought out posts is scummy.
Spoiler: scumtells
Logical, well thought out play is pro-town. Those kinds of posts give town more information to work with. Attacking players for pro-town play is scummy.
Third, piggy's push towards wasting town actions. It's a waste of an action and no one should do it. I'm incredibly suspicious of everyone who's trying to decrease the efficacy of town's night actions by pre-planning them or limiting them to weak actions. Siv is as or more scummy for this.-
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In post 136, PiggyGal15 wrote:Mit, what did the mod say last game about nightmares and guns? He said that only if a person chose to be a vig that night, they would have a gun. Meaning nightmares don't by default have guns. I was being sarcastic about the "scumslip", hence the
Siveure... that... that was just...
Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:Mit, I can take a LONG time to actually post stuff. I put it in, got the PEdit,then hummed and hawed about actually posting it.
You debated on posting your comment... only scum ever are unsure if they should post. Humming and hawing about a comment means you were thinking "Oh, maybe I should re-word this so that I don't get scum points"
Caught scum, right here.
VOTE: Siveure
If we're neighbourizing people, sorry Mit, we had some fun times, but I'm going with Siveure or Prohawk. I suggest if we do this, the towniest town reads should be put with the scummiest scum reads. That way there's little chance of scum being paired together.
Two things about this post that make me post it in full. First, I don't think scum piggy makes that kind of attack on her scum buddy which is why I don't think they're scum together. Second, can we talk about just how stupid this neighbourizing proposal is? What a waste of an action. Not only is this discussing plans of actions (which is anti-town), it's proposing incredibly weak actions. If scum piggy convinces just one townie to neighborize instead of doing something more useful, she'll have achieved a victory for scum. Piggy needs to be the lynch today.-
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In post 173, ProHawk wrote:She did neighborize in her last game as town which says to me she thinks its a smart move.
Presumably you're pointing to posts like this:
In post 35, PiggyGal15 wrote:Actually, having been invited into a neighbourhood as scum, there really isn't much sway you can have. If anything, it got more suspicion on me because I was more careless in the quicktopic.
You're certainly right that she advocated that as town. My problem with this line of reasoning is two-fold: 1) First replicating that town meta as scum is trivial since everyone has pretty much constantly referred to Micro 56 and there's no cost to advocating neighborizing ; 2) I don't think anyone can legitimately believe that Piggy's night 1 action actually helped town.-
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In post 199, screamlampost wrote:I think we should be discussing how the hell are we going to act tonight.
I veto this. I will vig someone who insists on it.-
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Some scattered thoughts:
1) Do we want to mutually agree on someone we think is scummy to make the first vote?
2) I went reflective over protect because I was fairly confident that no one was going to vig. I was going for a scum self-kill.
3) We should remember that there was nothing preventing scum from going double godfather last night
p-edit:
Mist, at this point I think you should reveal exactly how you restricted siv.-
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In post 274, Mitillos wrote:@qwints: But why would they try to kill Mist?
Fear that people would treat Mist as conf-town due to mod error.-
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In post 225, T-Bone wrote:
Mod Note: Some of you may have witnessed my mistake at the end of Night 1. Because of the nature of the game and the way roles are laid out it doesn't mean anything other than me confusing one scummer's name with another, and thus no further action shall be taken by me. Carry on.
The mod explicitly said that you were not cleared by the D1 flip. But that statement was not made during the N1 actions. I had a null read on you at the time, and I thought there was a good chance that scum would try and kill town-myst rather than risk having a "confirmed townie" alive D2. I now know 3 things I didn't know when I protected you.
1) Scum didn't try and kill you.
2) The mod error didn't reveal information (he posted your name with piggy's alignment)
3) You have claimed a night action that doesn't make sense for town.-
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Mit, I get that if Siv is scum, then either he made himself godfather, his partner did or you're lying.
In post 343, ProHawk wrote:In post 337, qwints wrote:Siv's admitted to flaking. He failed to submit an action, and I think that's the most likely explanation for a scum no-kill. The problem, of course, is that he told us he flaked.
Qwints, please explain. Also, how much of the other game did you read?
Read the whole thing, and I know the no-action was from a town player. That doesn't change my analysis.-
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In post 264, screamlampost wrote:Siveure: no action
Empking: made himself untargeteable
qwints: made Mist reflective
Mist: post-restricted Siveure
Mitillos: investigated Siveure - got innocent
ProHawk: made himself a bomb
Scream: investigated Zoidberg - got innocent
Zoidberg: investigated Scream - got innocent
PH, why did you choose bomb?-
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Night 1 Actions wrote:Siveure: no action
Empking: made himself untargeteable
qwints: made Mist reflective
Mist: post-restricted Siveure
Mitillos: investigated Siveure - got innocent
ProHawk: made himself a bomb
Scream: investigated Zoidberg - got innocent
Zoidberg: investigated Scream - got innocent
Night 2 actions wrote:
Mitillos: investigated qwints - got innocent
qwints: made everyone who targeted him bulletproof"
ProHawk: redirected Mitillos's action to qwints
screamlampost:?
Empking: ?
Siveure DtTrikyp: ?
Zoidberg: ?
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In post 448, Mitillos wrote:None of the 4 investigations were on Mist or Piggy. That leaves 7 people. There are 7C2 = 21 possible scum teams. If the actual scumteam does not contain one of the 4 investigated people, there are 3C2 = 3 scumteams. The probability of that happening is 3/21 ~= 14.3%. Your calculation doesn't take into account that the investigations were all on different people.
I was answering the question: what is the likelihood that 3 independent random investigations on night 1 and 1 on night 2 would come up town? The question I think you're trying to answer is: what is the prior probability of the scum groups being one of the 3 remaining possibilities? I don't think that's the correct question.
With Zoidberg's results, the odds are around 20% for my question and they're 1/21 for Mit's question. If everyone is telling the truth and got accurate results, we now know that Empking and Mitillos are scum. That would mean that scum-Mit cleared two townies and that mafia no-killed yesterday.-
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Let's get those last two actions in before we go further.
Investigations wrote:
Mitillos: Siveure and qwints are innocent
Zoidberg: Scream and ProHawk are innocent
Scream: Zoidberg in innocent
Night 1 Actions wrote:Siveure: no action
Empking: made himself untargeteable
qwints: made Mist reflective
Mist: post-restricted Siveure
Mitillos: investigated Siveure - got innocent
ProHawk: made himself a bomb
Scream: investigated Zoidberg - got innocent
Zoidberg: investigated Scream - got innocent
Night 2 actions wrote:
Mitillos: investigated qwints - got innocent
qwints: made everyone who targeted him bulletproof"
ProHawk: redirected Mitillos's action to qwints
screamlampost:?
Empking: made himself untargetable
Siveure DtTrikyp: ?
Zoidberg: investigated ProHawk- got innocent
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Night 1 Actions wrote:Siveure: no action
Empking: made himself untargeteable
qwints: made Mist reflective
Mist: post-restricted Siveure
Mitillos: investigated Siveure - got innocent
ProHawk: made himself a bomb
Scream: investigated Zoidberg - got innocent
Zoidberg: investigated Scream - got innocent
Night 2 actions wrote:
Mitillos: investigated qwints - got innocent
qwints: made everyone who targeted him bulletproof"
ProHawk: redirected Mitillos's action to qwints
screamlampost: made himself bulletproof
Empking: made himself untargetable
Siveure DtTrikyp: made himself 1 shot day-vig
Zoidberg: investigated ProHawk- got innocent
Siv, how are you conf-town?-
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And the reason I did what I did was because I thought there was a good chance multiple town players would target me with investigations or possibly vig-shots after yesteday's hammer. I really thought Myst was a nightmare.
Some night action analysis:
The only person who scum could have tried to kill on night one is Emping. If scum had shot at PH or Mist, they would have died.
Scum could have shot at Empking, scream or Mit on Night 2.
We now have 5 innocent results - meaning that
a) Mit and Empking are scum
b) a cop is lying
c) a cop got bad results (e.g. scum turned into a godfather)-
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