Micro 130: Noughts & Crosses Mafia

[serrapaladin]

Yay, this is happening again.
VOTE: Bitmap because

[serrapaladin]

Pretty sure Bitmap is scum. Rondar's vote on me is also good.

[serrapaladin]

So guys, we're not lynching our innocent child today. Bitmap is a great lynch, please wagon.

[serrapaladin]

Sure.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Rondar

[serrapaladin]

Conftown told me to. Also, corner start gives town more options going forward than side start.

[serrapaladin]

Nah, Tic Tac Toe is a solved game which ends in a tie for optimal play. I really don't care for too much theory talk at this point, but the optimal play for town is that which leaves the smallest number of NK options with the largest number of lynch options.

Starting on a corner is mildly better in that respect.

[serrapaladin]

I just looked at it, and if we have corner start we can win sooooo easily it is rediculous. Only problem is if we lynch Rondar we need to hope scum don't kill BB. VOTE: Rondar

What the hell is this post?

[serrapaladin]

You're kidding, right?

[serrapaladin]

Venrob, did you actually think scum would fall for that?

[serrapaladin]

Happy BDay.

I actually quite like Mitillos. Sap is a good counterwagon.

I'll keep my Rondar vote for now though.

[serrapaladin]

But wanting to seem as though you're coming up with a pro-town plan, when you know it won't work, is probably scum.

[serrapaladin]

Yeah. Chill guys

Whether Venrob's plan is scummy or not depends on whether we believe that he believed it might trick scum. Siv believes Venrob did, whereas I don't. We don't have conclusive evidence either way, so there's no way Siv is scummy for disagreeing.

I never said I have 'stronger' scumreads than Rondar. I don't like his jump onto the Siv wagon.

[serrapaladin]

Besides thinking Venrob is a VI, what has Siv done to deserve your votes?

[serrapaladin]

This site has to stop fakehammering.
That is all.

Oh, and Siv is probably town.

[serrapaladin]

What Bitmap said. But seriously, if you fakehammer as much as people do here, it just becomes a distraction.

Siv should probably claim, right guys?

[serrapaladin]

Nope, you?

[serrapaladin]

That's a yes then?

[serrapaladin]

For disliking fakehammers, defending Siv, or calling Rondar scum?

[serrapaladin]

I was bitching about site meta, how is that scummy? People use fakehammers so often, you hardly get a useful reaction, and when you do, most people I've seen do it are knee-deep in confirmation bias. I've seen few well-executed reaction tests so far.

If you're going to call me scum in association with Siv, you should probably wait for his flip before saying you'll lynch me tomorrow.

[serrapaladin]

Well, this is awkward.

[serrapaladin]

Well, this is awkward.

[serrapaladin]

But he hasn't done anything. Literally. I'd consider joining Bitmap on your wagon though.

[serrapaladin]

Meh. Sides shouldn't be excluded from wagons just yet. Venrob is as likely to be scum for those reasons as saporo.

[serrapaladin]

Hey Bitmap, why's BB scum?

[serrapaladin]

What're you on about? Tunneling on me to make sure your position doesn't get lynched?

[serrapaladin]

Still don't get why, but whatever. Voting sapo so you can lynch me tomorrow is horrible.

[serrapaladin]

Because if you're convinced I'm scum you should just lynch me today. There's complete symmetry between lynching Sapo, then me, and vice versa. If you're gonna stick to corners today you can't already decide you want to lynch a side tomorrow.

[serrapaladin]

Ah it's no fun keeping my vote on Rondar.
VOTE: BBmolla

[serrapaladin]

Still think Rondar might be scum, but we're not lynching him in 8 hours.

BB looks like a decent lynch at this point. I guess I'll go for Sap, if I have to by DL.

[serrapaladin]

Hey guys, can we please not let the DL run out? Mitillos, if you think BB might be scum, vote him. In general, everyone please place their votes on a wagon.

[serrapaladin]

What are you talking about Siv? BBmolla wants to lynch Sapo to line up my lynch - if he just wanted me lynched he should be voting me. Conveniently, Sapo is also on the other side of the board to him.

[serrapaladin]

Fair enough. I'll
VOTE: Siveure
for now, but I'll switch back to BBmolla to avoid an NL. Rondar, would you be willing to hammer BB come DL?

[serrapaladin]

We're less than 2 hours away from DL and you're voting someone who isn't getting lynched...

[serrapaladin]

Fair enough, but having someone lynched on 3 votes is awful.

[serrapaladin]

So it's Siv, then, huh?

[serrapaladin]

VOTE: BBmolla

[serrapaladin]

If we're playing like last time, three-in-a-row trumps other wincons.

@mod, right?

Lynching Blueberry would have been an awful idea, it would have given scum a full choice of kills.

I still think Rondar might be scum, but at this point his lynch also leaves scum too many options.

BB and Channel, and possibly Bitmap and sapo should be in the lynchpool for today.

[serrapaladin]

If we lynch Mitillos or me, scum can pretty much force a win, regardless of whether we're scum or not. If we lynch Rondar, scum can force a win unless both scum are among Bitmap, sapo and Rondar.

[serrapaladin]

You seem to be a bit too confident in your scumhunting.

Why would it be relevant that it's QUICKER to lynch scum. Surely we should be concerned about actually winning, and unless we're certain about a scumread, lynching according to the grid gives us a better chance of that happening.

[serrapaladin]

Fair enough, but I don't think there's anything wrong with starting off by "focusing" on more than half of the remaining players. I don't think between four targets, confirmation bias is that big a factor.

[serrapaladin]

What do you mean by it being a scumslip? I think it's definitely townie behavior to vote for a lynch that will lead to your own death. If he's gambling on the fact that BB will get himself out of this, that's one ballsy move by scum. I don't think scum-Bitmap would play badly enough to "accidently" cause his own death, if that's what you mean by scumslip.

[serrapaladin]

BB is making very little sense, which confuses me, because I would think as scum he'd make sure to understand the mechanics...

[serrapaladin]

What do you think of Bitmap's lack of self-preservation?

[serrapaladin]

Right. Now, a BB lynch will lead to a Bitmap NK and vice versa. I think getting the X on BB will make tomorrow's board nicer.

[serrapaladin]

I solved the stats for the board last game, which I can refer to if necessary, but I'd rather not reveal too much about optimal play for scum.

[serrapaladin]

Yes, that's what I was saying. And I find from a town perspective the X on you looks a bit "nicer."

[serrapaladin]

The way I see it at the moment:
Likelihood of scum among {Bitmap&BB > Deli&Sapo > Rondar > Mitillos}.
And I feel if we kill Bitmap&BB, the X is better placed on BB.

[serrapaladin]

Have you at all read the thread?

Actually, how would people feel about a sapo lynch? Deli is probably town, but sapo doesn't look great.

[serrapaladin]

So you think I'm more likely scum than sapo?

[serrapaladin]

So you think I'm more likely scum than sapo?

[serrapaladin]

What are you talking about? I am center-right and I don't think I've been particularly subtle about the fact I'd prefer a BB lynch if we're lynching one of you.

Now that we're not at L-1, I think there are a few bits of theory I should post, as they can't really affect scum decision-making at this point. I'll post it from a neutral perspective because bias and stuff.

[theory]
Lynching Deli or BB is symmetric in the sense that if there's exactly one scum among {Mitillos, Rondar, serra} it'll come down to LyLo between the three of us.

The difference is, if Deli is scum with one of {Mitillos, Rondar, serra}, he wins by lynching BB today. The same goes for BB being scum and getting Deli lynched. The fact that Deli hasn't hammered means he's likely town. On that note, we shouldn't be putting anyone at L-1 anymore, but instead keep people at L-2 and wait for 2 Intents to Hammer.

Similarly, if two of {Mitillos, Rondar, serra} are scum, they could have forced a scum win by hammering BB.

If both scum are among {BB, Bitmap, Deli, sapo} town wins by lynching BB. (Insert: The fact that sapo doesn't want BB lynched suggests to me that sapo's scum.)

If the second scum is Bitmap or BB, town is good. Otherwise, it'll come down to a LyLo between Mitillos, Rondar and serra.
[/theory]

Just in case it comes down to that LyLo, I'd like everyone, particularly the next two people to die, to weigh in about whom they would vote out of the three of us.

I've already made it clear that I see Rondar as scummier than Mitillos.

[serrapaladin]

so, explain why sapo over deli?>

[serrapaladin]

You know that wasn't the hammer, right? Why is this game so dead?

Bitmap, why Sapo over Deli. What do you think of Rondar, Mitillos and me?

[serrapaladin]

That's almost right. There's one added step of complexity in that scum can achieve a majority win if we mislynch twice. Say we lynch you, then scum force-NK's sap. If you both flipped town, we must lynch Bitmap. If he is also town, we lose by majority, even if BB is scum. Vice versa, if we start by killing BB we can lose if you're scum with one of {Mitillos, Rondar, me}.

I am currently more confident in you being town than BB, so I'd also prefer the BB lynch.

[serrapaladin]

Have people just completely lost interest in this game? :/

Comments on whether to lynch BB or not, and what to do in case we reach LyLo. Please!

[serrapaladin]

He'll get lynched by plurality in just under 17. At least give Bitmap and BB a chance for final thoughts.

[serrapaladin]

Tell me more about why you think I'm scum.

[serrapaladin]

Then your problem (assuming you're town) is the following:

If we lynch Bitmap, scum kills BB and tomorrow's lynch has to be me. Assuming we haven't lost by then, scum can choose a LyLo between 3 out of {Rondar, Mitillos, Deli, you}, which gives them more options than a BB lynch.

[serrapaladin]

Wasn't really directed at you Deli

[serrapaladin]

Yes, but you and Bitmap will be dead and Bitmap has just prod-dodged his way to DL...

[serrapaladin]

Not sure, but I feel good about one of you, Bitmap and sapo being scum. If you still have any thoughts, now's the time.

[serrapaladin]

Yup. Then if we haven't won yet, scum kills Deli and it's LyLo between Mitillos, Rondar and me.

[serrapaladin]

I wouldn't discount the possibility of Bitmap/sapo, but the LyLo is fairly likely.

[serrapaladin]

To clarify, they want each other lynched, rather than BB or Deli. That could be consistent with them as scumbuddies, as the logical lynch the next day would be Mitillos or me.

[serrapaladin]

atm=for rest of game

Thoughts between Rondar & Mitillos?

[serrapaladin]

That's quite irrelevant, though. Deli is dying tomorrow night, if the game is still running by then.

[serrapaladin]

Ugh.
VOTE: sapo

[serrapaladin]

If sapo isn't scum, we've lost anyways.

@empking, if town could no longer win, would you tell us?

[serrapaladin]

You'd tell me if you were scum, right?

[serrapaladin]

I really hope that Deli is town, otherwise that was one waste of a reread.

I disagree with sera. I think that, if there is a scum in {BB, Bitmap}, the better board arrangement would be from a Bitmap lynch, if only by a bit. And if neither of them is scum, we lose the game anyway, by voting one of them, which seems to be what will happen today.

I would also like to hear more from Bitmap, sapo and Rondar. BB, please unvote, until there has been some more conversation.

In retrospective, this could well have been strategic. A Bitmap lynch yesterday would have insta-won the game for scum. He backed off when I argued for the BB lynch, but never really explained why he thought this one would be better.

There's that and the distancing/bussing of Sapo. Otherwise I have nothing.

Mitillos, wanna come up with a convincing explanation of why you thought the Bitmap lynch would be good?

Rondar's D1 play gave me a marginal overall scum read, but I think as sapo's buddy I might actually prefer mitillos. Need to think this through...

[serrapaladin]

I'm confused...

[serrapaladin]

Luckily I won't have to make the decision if it comes to that =)

Hate you! <3

Rondar, why the sapo quickhammer?

[serrapaladin]

VOTE: Mitillos

[serrapaladin]

Sorry town

[serrapaladin]

GG Rondar & Sapo.

Sorry Mit, what got me in the end was

I was under the impression that both sapo and Deli were town

which looked at odds with you wagoning her D1.

I also didn't think sapo would be so blatant as to question why we're wagoning her scumbuddy.
Hate LyLo :/