Open 570: Making Friends and Enemies (Mafia Wins!)

[davesaz]

Howdy folks, reading in.

[davesaz]

OK, I've done quite a bit of reading. It doesn't feel the same as it would in real time, so I don't trust it as much. It's also very instructive to see if / how other players change their interaction with a slot when a new player comes in. So I won't go on a big quoting binge right now, just some preliminary reads based on the gestalt.

First off, don't want to let my predecessor's vote sit there, whatever it might be. If I think it's valid I can always put it back.
UNVOTE:

The way Mala explains her early game methodology seems genuine. It's the type of thing that would be hard to lie about. However it's also an easy out for scum, so this is not necessarily alignment indicative. I'd approach reading this type of player by seeing if her meta reads seem to match up with the content itself. Null for now, I think.

I don't trust myself to read BBT without some VCA to back it up. And then maybe not even then. His play style so far matches the other game we've been in together, and I had a hard time reading him there. Firm null till I can see some additional interaction.

Scripten was also in that same game. I totally read him wrong, but in hindsight it was more about not looking closely enough than being fooled per se. His questions and answers have seemed fairly reasonable. Very mild town read so far, but keeping my eye on him.

MS's play style in the early game would bug me to no end. Thank goodness I wasn't here to respond to it in real time. I'll reserve judgment on the read.

I got a weak scum on Shinobi, but it wasn't due to the interaction with BBT. As I said at the beginning of this post, it's really just the totality of the thread to date.

[davesaz]

While you're here, what are your current reads?

I have seen this question before, and it makes me nervous.

[davesaz]

While you're here, what are your current reads?

I have seen this question before, and it makes me nervous.

Don't be nervous. Engage.

I was going to post again right after, it makes me nervous coming from you specifically. But apparently you're camped on the thread since it took me only about 15 seconds to write the followon post which was going to go here.

[davesaz]

you made a funny

What's funny (strange) is that the only thing you seem to post is funnies and comments on funnies. If you're going to replace in, at least you could play the actual game you replace into. You could be indifferent about a VT role, or you could be scum feigning indifference to a VT role. Keep it up and we might need to lynch you, if only to rule out the 2nd possibility.

[davesaz]

Npau, why is it that you think it's bad that Mala doesn't have a serious vote down but you've completely ignored the fact that I haven't either?

I saw this back and forth, and figure it's based on the concept that some of the players in the game know each other.

I on the other hand do not know you, and would like to know when you're planning to leave the shadows. Surely you must have some kind of opinion, so what is it?

[davesaz]

NPAU do you think people are making pot shots at you because you have 8 posts and 5 of them contain vote changes?
That's if you count your "confirm" post. Nearly all of your posts have had a vote change.
Goodmorning
BBT
Huntress
Goodmorning again
and Now
Mala

On top of that, they are nearly all without player engagement.
I'm still not sure what the Huntress vote was for. Can you explain?

I don't see a problem with vote changes, especially in the beginning of the game, when you are trying to figure out who is scum among the many.
My vote on Huntress was a gut thing. I felt like she was mainly cruising through the game being neutral. She had no vote so I voted her to see how she would respond. She didn't really respond but I was back at arguing with BBT before I could follow up on it

To reiterate the question, what good does a vote do if there is no player engagement to go with it? I've seen town use a vote plus commentary and interaction and move on if the interaction is satisfactory, but you feel more like scum tossing votes to see if a wagon can magically appear. That technique gives scum an out of "but I didn't start that wagon, clearly my vote wasn't serious." Or a chance to move off once it gains traction, hiding the scum distancing in a vote hopping pattern.

[davesaz]

you made a funny

What's funny (strange) is that the only thing you seem to post is funnies and comments on funnies. If you're going to replace in, at least you could play the actual game you replace into. You could be indifferent about a VT role, or you could be scum feigning indifference to a VT role. Keep it up and we might need to lynch you, if only to rule out the 2nd possibility.

*ping*

I really hate this post.

It feels like you are fishing a reaction on this one.

Like why can't he be a mason with less interest in the game. Why assume he's a VT?

No, I'm not trying to get a mason reaction. TBH the sites where I've played before almost never used that role and therefore I'm not used to thinking about it.

Soft playing/active lurking a role (any type be it mason, cop, doc) can be a useful tactic, but it's still necessary to not carry soft play/active lurk too far. Because the same observation holds, it's hard to distinguish that from scum. Therefore, I'd still like to see some activity.

[davesaz]

@ davesaz:

Hi! Why did you comment on 466 before NPAU had had a chance to answer it?

Because I saw something questionable and wanted to investigate it in the flow vs. trying to remember to investigate it later.

[davesaz]

I noticed a little something about Scripten's push on NPAU.

On another note. I like zebulin's recent explanation. Can we vote Peabody now?

VOTE: peabody

I wouldn't mind a Peabody lynch. He's a little scummy, but right now I'd like to see a good NPAU wagon. His votes are all over the place, he's misrepping BBT something -hard- in (320). Also, (224) is terrible, but this takes the cake:

Define soft defend. Why would scum more likely to soft defend each other and not just outright defend or outright distance each other?

Might do a short meta checkup, but that's ringing scum to me.

VOTE: nopointinactingup

Newb scums are obvious scums

Newb towns are vi

Alright. That's a fair enough point for the moment. Why are you pushing a lynch on goodmorning again? What makes a scum GM opposed to a town GM to you? Gimme something good.

Npau has suddenly become a scum read based on 439.

And he is easier to kill than goodmorning

vote npau

Just as I was getting confident you're town

I agree that 450 is pretty scummy. Why don't you explain why? I wanna know if our reasons coincide.

This last one is a bit long, so I trimmed it down to the NPAU comment itself. The rest of the post is about other things.

In case you're wondering, BBT, MS still looks pretty scummy to me. It's Zeb's slot that changed. I still want to see NPAU lynched. He looks like the most likely scum, IMO.

In all that time, these are the only posts I could find where Scripten is on the NPAU case. I don't really have anything against the case, and have no great desire to see a big tunnel, but why so little followup? Trying to figure out if this is meant to be a real case or not.

[davesaz]

MS - Are you still town-reading Mala?

And scum-reading GM?

yes and yes. I have static reads. Unless a player has made something that definitively makes me want to reconsider their alignment, they will remain static in my readslist.


So this method is flawed in that there might be scum in my townpile. But it has a 100% rate of catching scum correctly so you're gonna have to trust me on that one

>hence goodmorning should die but *shrugs* she is skilled <

Isn't the 100% rate of catching scum bit a little brash? Don't see how this can be correct if there are scum in the town pile, unless you're trying to claim you never put town in the scum pile.

[davesaz]

@BBT: Time, and maybe. Need to go to work, more complete answer later.

[davesaz]

davesaz, question still out there for you: what is your experience level with Mafia? I need to ask you a few things, depending on this.

This is easy to answer with regard to quantity -- dozens of games. 2 complete games on this site.

In terms of quality it's a little trickier because I don't have a strong read on whether that would make me very experienced here or just average.

There are also significant differences, in particular a wider variety of roles used here, and very long deadline times (2 weeks with an immediate hammer on majority) compared to what I'm used to (1-2 days and highest vote total lynched whether it's a majority or not, no quick hammers). I'm also used to games with unlimited private communication, which makes a huge difference in how you play

all

roles, even VT. The adjustment is almost complete.

[davesaz]

MS - Are you still town-reading Mala?

And scum-reading GM?

yes and yes. I have static reads. Unless a player has made something that definitively makes me want to reconsider their alignment, they will remain static in my readslist.


So this method is flawed in that there might be scum in my townpile. But it has a 100% rate of catching scum correctly so you're gonna have to trust me on that one

>hence goodmorning should die but *shrugs* she is skilled <

Isn't the 100% rate of catching scum bit a little brash? Don't see how this can be correct if there are scum in the town pile, unless you're trying to claim you never put town in the scum pile.

Yeah the latter

Are you seriously trying to say that if I do a "find posts by user" with votes, and look at the corresponding flips, that you've

never

voted someone who flipped town?
Is that really what you're trying to say?

[davesaz]

If I really wanted to press this, I'd ask how often you vote people without having a scum read on them.
Pushed and lynched is a higher bar. At least saying the people you push a lynch for are usually scum is almost believable. Statistically very unlikely to be "always", but I don't think going the crazed statistician OCD route on you is profitable.

[davesaz]

I happen to agree.

She said she was working on a reads-list a while back, I've been waiting for it.

I didn't know she was posting elsewhere though.

VOTE: GM

So just to clarify, you're totally sheeping here?

[davesaz]

I happen to agree.

She said she was working on a reads-list a while back, I've been waiting for it.

I didn't know she was posting elsewhere though.

VOTE: GM

So just to clarify, you're totally sheeping here?

I take that back, this does look like a reason. Maybe not an especially good one, but it's something.

Goodmorning, we need some activity. I'm not as picky about it being a reads list, but something useful would be nice.

[davesaz]

Spoiler: BBT's requests for reads

While you're here, what are your current reads?

I have seen this question before, and it makes me nervous.

Don't be nervous. Engage.

I'm also looking at BBT and NPAU but I don't think they are scum together.

Is there a reason you don't think me and NPAU can be scum together?

Newb scums are obvious scums

Newb towns are vi

Alright. That's a fair enough point for the moment.

You're very compliant in this game Scripten. It's like you're trying not to ruffle any feathers.

I got my eye on you.

Also I forgot about marvel entirely and you were town there and so was I, but I replaced in and I think you were basically conf-town by then.

You couldn't use his town play from that game to help you determine his alignment in this game?

Mala, can I have a reads-list please. I don't think I've seen you give an opinion on someone that wasn't extremely wishy-washy and fence-sitty.

Need to see more from Uct, Heph and GM.

Waiting for Mala's and GM's reads-lists.

MS - Are you still town-reading Mala?

And scum-reading GM?

Dave, in 473 you left out quite a few people from your reads-list. Was there a reason for this?

Have you developed a read on any of the players you left out or have any of your previous reads changed?

Hi Mala,

Reads-list please.

Can I have that reads-lis now?

Because it's considered filler and hypocritical because you aren't giving a readslist yourself, but asking others for it.

How is it filler? I want to see people's thoughts/reads.

Nobody has asked me for a reads-list.

So BBT, how about that reads list? You seem so obsessed about what everyone else thinks, but seem to be dispensing your own ideas with a dropper.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Hestephus

Your vote on NPAU looks opportunistic. Especially since only half of those voting him have any reasoning (Scripten, MS) although both cases are vague.

And especially since the only person you prodded as possible scum was MS.

Ok so the problem with this game is that it hasn't built momentum due to all the replacements. At this point I'd expect at least one solid wagon but instead there's a ton on vanity wagons that aren't going anywhere and I don't even know where to begin looking for scum.

Are you only looking for wagons?

This looks opportunistic as MS's 'NPAU is easier to lynch' line. Which you called out.

Long story short: NPAU -might- be scum. But the wagon on him is incredibly scummy. Hephaestus's vote looks most suspect of the four.

So I've been reviewing the people who aren't involved in the GM wagon in some way (either on it, or questioning those who are on it). You're in this category.

Has anything happened since the quoted post to change your reads?

[davesaz]

OK. Anyways, I want Scripten and BBT to give a case on me. The others are sheeping/scum I think. TBH, I'm no fan of this game, but I'll try to respond to it the best I can

I'll do this as soon as I can. For the moment, I would suggest ISOing NPAU and getting context on the places where he votes to see why he looks suspect to me.

I'm trying to decide whether I should join this wagon or take a harder look at its perpetrators. Any chance you can post something enlightening to help me decide?

[davesaz]

Confirming that NPAU is on the scum side of null for me.
Both observations on my 448 are correct, it's a statement of scumminess and scumhunting to do so. The (lack of) result does not look good for town NPAU.

I didn't expect BBT to be so obliging so quickly. This causes some reassessment (in the townward direction), though I also need to keep the principle in BBT's signature in mind.

pedit -- I'm very undecided on Huntress. I don't have experience of her previous games to work with and the behavior in this game doesn't really ping alignment in either direction.

[davesaz]

Dave, in 473 you left out quite a few people from your reads-list. Was there a reason for this?

Have you developed a read on any of the players you left out or have any of your previous reads changed?

@BBT: Time, and maybe. Need to go to work, more complete answer later.

In this upcoming complete answer, can you also tell me why you chose those people to post your reads on.

I don't think answering these will help much with the scum hunt, but I do believe in being polite and helpful so I'll answer anyway. I don't tend to do a complete spectrum read all at once. I start with people I know, ones who are posting a lot, and ones who are posting but not being useful. The ones I know because it's easier to start from the familiar, the ones who are posting a lot because they tend to either be scum or valuable town assets (before someone jumps to conclusions I mean good scum hunters, not power roles here), and the ones who are posting but not being useful because they're usually either scum flying under the radar or people who are disappointed to be VT.

The answer for whether reads are changed or not can best be found by looking at my subsequent posts.

[davesaz]

EFFORT IS NOT AND HAS NEVER BEEN INDICATIVE OF ALIGNMENT

my scumread on hephaestus is mainly based on him being 100% useless.

You're a funny gal

That is a good contradiction you pointed out.

But this does not mitigate the fact you're not doing anything useful. Just these two lines are not enough to condemn gm, nor are they enough to clear you. You gave a couple of scum reads but gave no reasons for them. And that does not help us lynch anyone. I've been bothered by this all along, and have tried to be patient, but it's not looking good for you. There are a lot more reasons for scum to play this way than town.

[davesaz]

Case on NPAU

Jumpy vote hopping (All of his votes so far have apparently been serious, as per (105)): (33) (105) (224) (320) (439)

Finds MS unlikely to be scum, (224) but, despite MS's playstyle not changing, he considers him scum by (521). Yet, he barely pushes at MS, which is a marked change from his other accusations. I also did not notice him voting MS. Considering how much his votes have jumped around, this is inconsistent, especially when he jumps onto GM in (634). After all, if he was changing his playstyle because it made him look scummy, he should have stopped vote-hopping by that time. (If he was town, stopping scummy behavior would have made sense. Even if it cast suspicion on him, it would ultimately make the game clearer for the town. Scum thrive in confusion.)

There's some scummy wording and opportunistic attacks in those posts, too.

I also find it interesting just how fast the NPAU wagon broke up and how fast the GM wagon grew at the same time. I'll go back and see where votes changed from one wagon to the other and check if my thoughts match up.

This is a good enough post to make Scripten town if NPAU was lynched and flipped scum today.

The way you say this indicates you'd have a different read if things turned out differently?
Does the post itself have any alignment indicator for you? I see things but would be interested to see if others agree.

[davesaz]

Let's all lynch Hephestus. I feel pretty good about that right now.

Any update to this thought given his post for today? Any bets on when we can expect another?

[davesaz]

This game gets my fullest attention tomorrow.

Why did NPAU put GM to L-1? His vote moves around so much for such faulty reasons. Ugh.

Yeah, there is that and there is also how the wagon rolled back.

Oh geez. I'm way behind. Ummmmmm, sorry to keep doing this. I'll try to keep up with the thread more.

Sooo, I'll post tomorrow.

Looking forward to it. I was seeing interesting stuff from you and then it stopped before there was enough to make a decision.

[davesaz]

@ davesaz:

Hi! Why did you comment on 466 before NPAU had had a chance to answer it?

Because I saw something questionable and wanted to investigate it in the flow vs. trying to remember to investigate it later.

When I saw your post it looked to me like you were helping NPAU out by suggesting an answer to the question Shinobi asked him. If I had been in Shinobi's position there I would have been peeved and a bit suspicious that you intervened as it might have affected the read I would have been trying to get on NPAU. The question you raised could have been asked without referring to the post at all. But Shinobi doesn't appear bothered about it which makes me wonder why.

I was actually calling out Shinobi in that post, not defending NPAU. TBH I forgot that bait was in the water. I looked back and think that Shinobi never responded to my question. At this point I wonder if Shinobi scum could have been crumbing a defense to NPAU scum.

p-edit. Turns out my reply was incredibly timely.

[davesaz]

Repeating an earlier question as it may have been overlooked.

Case on NPAU

Jumpy vote hopping (All of his votes so far have apparently been serious, as per (105)): (33) (105) (224) (320) (439)

Finds MS unlikely to be scum, (224) but, despite MS's playstyle not changing, he considers him scum by (521). Yet, he barely pushes at MS, which is a marked change from his other accusations. I also did not notice him voting MS. Considering how much his votes have jumped around, this is inconsistent, especially when he jumps onto GM in (634). After all, if he was changing his playstyle because it made him look scummy, he should have stopped vote-hopping by that time. (If he was town, stopping scummy behavior would have made sense. Even if it cast suspicion on him, it would ultimately make the game clearer for the town. Scum thrive in confusion.)

There's some scummy wording and opportunistic attacks in those posts, too.

I also find it interesting just how fast the NPAU wagon broke up and how fast the GM wagon grew at the same time. I'll go back and see where votes changed from one wagon to the other and check if my thoughts match up.

This is a good enough post to make Scripten town if NPAU was lynched and flipped scum today.

The way you say this indicates you'd have a different read if things turned out differently?
Does the post itself have any alignment indicator for you? I see things but would be interested to see if others agree.

[davesaz]

I hate how everyone is drawing associative reads from everything.

I'm looking at them and they all look dumb. Maybe it's just me.

I hate how everyone is drawing associative reads from everything.

I'm looking at them and they all look dumb. Maybe it's just me.

I agree. Associative reads without flips/relevant information are indeed dumb.

Yeah I have never fully understood why people do it, but I'm guilty of doing it myself accidentally sometimes

You can get associative reads from the pattern of voting even before a lynch is reached, if you notice that 2 or more people are together when wagons swing, or counteract each other. And also from who people support or lock in on. But I would agree in part, you might have reason to say they're the same or opposite alignment, but not know which is which until there is a flip.

It is also possible to use associations in a PoE manner. It's much easier to find the negative "probably not associated with" than the positive. Someone who looks like they can't possibly be associated with anyone may be more likely to be not scum.

[davesaz]

Your 729 answers it. I think if we are right on NPAU being scum it sets up some people to be town.

GM for same reasons why I've said I don't think they're on the same team.
Scripten for that well thought out case on NPAU (I would doubt its worth it to bus on Day 1 with 13 players, and I doubt a bus would have that much effort Scripten put. In my personal cases of bussing, usually it's some half assed sentence or idea, not a thought out case like that)

If NPAU showed up as town, would that change things? That was what I was really asking.

[davesaz]

You'd prefer one liners?

[davesaz]

I've seen enough to sort everyone. The (r) denotes replacement.

town

davesaz (r)
Malakittens(r)
Josh B(r)
Scripten (r)
Peabody (r)
Huntress town
-----------------------------
Metal Sonic
BlueBloodedToffee
goodmorning
------------------------------
ucitron00(r)
hephaestus (r)
------------------------------
Shinobi
nopointactingup

scum

VOTE: NPAU

[davesaz]

Thanks for asking. I had a scum lean before and then I noticed these posts.

Spoiler: bad-ish stuff

VOTE: uctriton

Okay. I have found the bullshit. I am attacking it.

Here's a one-liner for you:

I've discovered that uct is scum and you should vote him with me.

I've discovered that uct is scum and you should vote him with me.

hi there reaction test

Not a reaction test.

When I get hold of a computer, I'll tell you all why we're lynching duct.

But not this one...

Your 729 answers it. I think if we are right on NPAU being scum it sets up some people to be town.

GM for same reasons why I've said I don't think they're on the same team.
Scripten for that well thought out case on NPAU (I would doubt its worth it to bus on Day 1 with 13 players, and I doubt a bus would have that much effort Scripten put. In my personal cases of bussing, usually it's some half assed sentence or idea, not a thought out case like that)

If NPAU showed up as town, would that change things? That was what I was really asking.

This is basically why we kill uct, for the record.

So I guess the one I didn't notice leaves Shinobi back at the previous point of just a scum lean and near the top of that list. The reason it doesn't swing all the way to town for me is that scum could make the same point that Shinobi did in order to cast doubts on the townpeople on the NPAU wagon to deflect suspicion from a buddy.

[davesaz]

And since?

[davesaz]

I want to see uctritron00 v. Shinobi from a 3rd party view.

[davesaz]

Confirm I'm voting NPAU, but you also have me listed as not voting

No clue what you are talking about.

[davesaz]

Observations on the vote:

NPAU and hephaestus both voting GM is interesting because IIRC several people have floated hephaestus as their 2nd-3rd scummiest player. Perhaps both are scum and neither wants to move for fear of looking even more scummy?
What's up with Malakittens and Josh_B? Could be a double OMGUS with a side of BBT? IIRC (without going to the trouble to read back) I think that trio's votes have been pretty jumpy.
ucitron00 being on shinobi makes sense given the past couple of pages, but it's interesting that shinobi is the sole holdout on voting at this time.

[davesaz]

BBT: Is tunneling that going to get us to a lynch?

Mala: Same question for you, what are you doing to advance town objectives?

[davesaz]

You think you'll talk enough people into joining you, today, before the deadline?
Right now, I'm seeing a no-lynch as a distinct possibility, and I'm not liking it at all. The town is going to need to come together on what we do today.

[davesaz]

I'm looking at a vote count that is spread out all over the place and a big drop in activity, as though a lot of people are willing to leave it this way.

If the ones who are off on their own have actual reasons for being off the wagon, they should work harder at making a case. Especially since some of these spread out votes are there because the target isn't making cases.

@BBT, we know who you suspected. It's not like that information is going to be lost if you switch. Or you convince me that your lead is better than where my vote is now. I'm not totally invested in the current wagon. It's almost like there are too many good leads, in fact more good leads than there should be scum.

[davesaz]

NPAU, Shinobi, Mala if your're onto something. I thought GM was pushed for the wrong reasons. Can't tell if Hephaestus was sincerely just unable to participate or doesn't know how to reengage without looking scummy. Some of the suspicion against Scripten resonated with me and reminds me of our game together. You're different enough this time, though this asking other people for reads instead of promoting your own still gives me cause for concern.

pedit -- thanks for the link, I'll look at that. Actively avoiding questions about active lurking is pinging me on Mala.

[davesaz]

I seriously don't know what to do with Shin v Uct. I don't know why he also added my name in the mix. <_<

Any followup here? I bet there has been posting since then.

Lolno. It won't happen.

Josh. There can be games I hop a lot others I dont. It depends on how I'm approaching the game scum hunting wise etc.

Please tell me where I omgus voted you. I was not really liking your posts at all besides the one that felt town, but its something scum or town could do either way.

Also I voted hopped more than you are making out to not have hopped. Voted my RVS then nyayayaa, then bbt, then GM then you.

So yeah anyone who I was trying to read or actively hunt. So all my votes have had reasons besides maybe BBT with the votes.

So pretty much you've only attempted to read about 5 people this game?

Shin -- I didn't like the defense in the newbie game and I sure as hell don't like it now. T_T

At first I misread NPAU's post thought he was saying he was okay with the lynch on himself. Which felt like AtE, but reading back on it further is not what he said at all.

I'm off today so I'll prob look through the game a bit more, but deadline is close so we do need a lynch. So I'll put my vote to the NPAU wagon if needed.

This implied a big burst of activity, which IMO has not materialized. Did NPAU's post reinforce the idea that he's scum, or not. Does that reply, which is not AtE, feel more like scum resigned to being lynched, or town resigned to being lynched. I'm sure a player who claims to be able to read people on sight should be able to draw some conclusion. You're not gung-ho on lynching NPAU, but you're doing nothing to pursue Josh_B where your vote is now. Scummy, no?

If it makes you feel any better my null read has become a town read on huntress!

Be happy I didn't just reply something snarky to your snark remark BBT.

Congratulations, a read update which is meaningless to the current situation. Hopefully you can do better.

[davesaz]

Dammit, why didn't the preview show that new post?
Reading the latest and re-evaluating.

[davesaz]

So the new post 891 invalidates all the points I made in my latest. Don't know why its coming so late, but I really do like the content -- which makes sense though I may disagree with some of the conclusions. It's obviously not a response to the one I was in the middle of writing, and it's a lot more comprehensive than you'd expect from the other Mala post on this page.

Next question -- BBT, I know that Mala could have posted this specifically in response to your read and engineered it to address your point, but what if it's genuine?

[davesaz]

Now, is NPAU really the right target? I think, without looking back, that a lot of the case was on inactivity, which is really easy to target.
Don't get me wrong, it's not clear that NPAU is town either. If we've been led astray then go for the perp, and if the case is valid then we lynch and evaluate based on the flip.

[davesaz]

Actually, if the flip is town then we can go for the perp anyway.

[davesaz]

i.e. if we were playing real life mafia and someone just said this, i'd be suspicious of it.

Things felt like they had been static for something like 2 (or more) days now. I find that really unusual, so I took steps to do something about it.
If I were scum, and it's headed for no lynch, what possible benefit could there be to trying to stir things up? If I were buddy with NPAU, convincing others to join a wagon I'm already on would be stupid, and if not then why would scum try to kickstart town and then try to stop what looks like a sure mislynch? Neither scenario makes sense. While the town scenario makes total sense -- lynch someone and try to be sure it's really scum.

[davesaz]

Plus I'm still waiting on a Shinobi response; he posted earlier today, and I'll give him benefit of the doubt that he's at work.

Just hope that I don't get a "I don't have to explain anything" scummy response again. Rehashing the question again:

"What was your original case on me, and how did it change to a town read all of a sudden?"

I just really don't feel like dealing with you.

Can we have a refresh? Someone wants a question answered and the other one refuses to answer the question because the asker hasn't posted something. Can't recall who is asking, who is refusing to answer, and what the various cases are.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:

I'm getting a read that says lynching NPAU could be a mistake. It would be a bad thing to fully explain this read now, but I don't want to leave the vote at L-2. If I'm wrong and the read does not develop further, it is easy enough to get back on.

Scripten & Huntress, how strong are your NPAU reads? How do you feel about uctritron and Shinobi?

[davesaz]

Plus I'm still waiting on a Shinobi response; he posted earlier today, and I'll give him benefit of the doubt that he's at work.

Just hope that I don't get a "I don't have to explain anything" scummy response again. Rehashing the question again:

"What was your original case on me, and how did it change to a town read all of a sudden?"

I just really don't feel like dealing with you.

Can we have a refresh? Someone wants a question answered and the other one refuses to answer the question because the asker hasn't posted something. Can't recall who is asking, who is refusing to answer, and what the various cases are.

Alternatively you could stop blowing something useless out of proportion.

Who do you want lynched? Anyone in particular you don't want lynched?

[davesaz]

Plus I'm still waiting on a Shinobi response; he posted earlier today, and I'll give him benefit of the doubt that he's at work.

Just hope that I don't get a "I don't have to explain anything" scummy response again. Rehashing the question again:

"What was your original case on me, and how did it change to a town read all of a sudden?"

I just really don't feel like dealing with you.

Can we have a refresh? Someone wants a question answered and the other one refuses to answer the question because the asker hasn't posted something. Can't recall who is asking, who is refusing to answer, and what the various cases are.

Dave, reread my post and tell me where in there you don't see me asking the question to shinobi

Was that the original question?

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:

I'm getting a read that says lynching NPAU could be a mistake. It would be a bad thing to fully explain this read now, but I don't want to leave the vote at L-2. If I'm wrong and the read does not develop further, it is easy enough to get back on.

Scripten & Huntress, how strong are your NPAU reads? How do you feel about uctritron and Shinobi?

Finished reviewing things and I couldn't develop that nagging doubt into anything more concrete. That is to say, the things I had seen which generated the doubt did not resolve into a better scum read on someone else. I'd still like to have these answers though.

@MOD: Goodmorning appears twice as recipient in the vote count.

[davesaz]

BTW, since someone will probably ask... If I explained what I thought I saw it would help scum.

[davesaz]

@GM, in your read list you have Town L->G ans Scum G->L. What do L and G mean? Least and Greatest would fit but it would be strange to me to put them in that order.
Most significantly, which is most scummy for you, NPAU or MS?

[davesaz]

if i replace out and request access to spoilers i think it would make it very easier wouldn't it

i just want to know if im right

If Shinobi or NPAU isn't lynched I'll join you

Reading these two posts together makes me want to think MS.

[davesaz]

Because if you're town and think you have caught scum, why even think of replacing out? If you're town and think you're right about town, you'd stay to play the next day and catch the scum on the wagon.

[davesaz]

VOTE: NPAU

[davesaz]

I already said I wasn't sure, and the posts since I revoted have made me less sure. But hopping to GM feels like hopping to town. I think I'll watch the thread and clock.

[davesaz]

I already said I wasn't sure, and the posts since I revoted have made me less sure. But hopping to GM feels like hopping to town. I think I'll watch the thread and clock.

Why are you town-reading GM?

GM's reply to one of my posts. Town is way more likely to give that reply than scum. In fact, I'm nearly certain that GM is town because of a single sentence. No, I'm not going to quote it now.

[davesaz]

Scripten was revealed as recruited mason, which means the masons have used up their one shot ability. (We can infer it is one-shot from the posted PM, right?)

So, exactly why would you not like the idea of finding out who they are? Two confirmed town would help.

[davesaz]

Have I mentioned in this game that I have a serious dislike for naked votes?
Care to enlighten us some?

[davesaz]

Obviously, I was concerned that NPAU might have been mason. At least one of you figured out what I was trying to say -- don't remember who it was though. So I pulled back and tried to find the association. If I had been able to find one, I would have been convinced, and went on to attack the person attacking the associate. But in all the combinations of interactions with NPAU I couldn't find a plausible attacker and defender.

So the upshot is, if you have reservations about a lynch say nothing? Or stay off, vote a meaningless target, and let it go no-lynch?

I think that from {BBT, Mala, Josh} we'll find our scum. Don't know which 2. Uctritron comes in a distant 4th.

What I don't get is why nobody has bothered to look at who Scripten would be dangerous to. Or if you're looking, nobody is saying anything about it.

VOTE: Josh

[davesaz]

Reading comprehension much a problem?

Thought was mason. Unvoted. Determined the evidence did not point that way. Revoted.

So no, I didn't think he was mason in the end. I thought it more likely he was scum than town but did not think the case was very strong. About what you'd expect for d1.

[davesaz]

I think my problem on this site is going to be that I post what I'm thinking. You people don't know how to act when someone is honest.

[davesaz]

On the flip side, I pity my buddy when I finally do catch a scum role.

[davesaz]

What I don't get is why nobody has bothered to look at who Scripten would be dangerous to. Or if you're looking, nobody is saying anything about it.

This reads as nonsense, and counter productive. Why should we be looking at a dead townie, and exactly how dangerous is he?

Who would feel threatened by Scripten's continued presence in the game? If there is anyone fitting that description, they would have motive for a NK. I thought this would be crystal clear. I have found scum in the past by paying attention to who they killed and combining that with the posting and votes. The technique might have changed the outcome of the newbie game I subbed into, if I hadn't bought a line about the only thing you can get out of this is WIFOM. Discarding information is a scum tactic.

[davesaz]

What scum in their right mind would leave a NPAU wagon and then go back on, especially posting what I did? Did you read my explanation at all? There is plenty of town reasoning to do what I did, which is not a big surprise given I'm town. Town don't want to lynch masons, where scum would like nothing better. If I were scum and thought NPAU a mason, I'd try even harder to get him lynched. I can't imagine anyone playing badly enoiugh as scum to leave and go back. It's way too risky to try a gambit like that.

[davesaz]

I also said if you had the slightest inkling that NPAU was Mason, you would have got off that wagon altogether.

No lynch is worse for town than a mislynch, provided the mislynched player is not a PR.
I got worried about the possibility that NPAU could be a PR, so I jumped off to check that out.
Having concluded that NPAU was probably not a PR, a lynch was needed. Therefore I got back on.
I thought then, and still do think, that GM is town.
You disagree with my GM read, and are projecting that as a scum read on me because I preferred the NPAU (possible scum) to GM (probably town) wagon.

[davesaz]

OK, let's take this a step at a time because you're ignoring huge parts of my case.

What made you think NPAU was Mason?

The masons don't seem to want to be outed, though we haven't had a reply this game day from everyone yet, I don't think.
Don't know if it would be right to explain the exact details of why, if doing so would expose them.

Interactions between two other players made it look like one of them could be mason with NPAU and the other scum trying to find the mason pair. For the reason I just mentioned, I'm not going to reveal which two players. The in-depth review of that interaction didn't yield anything useful.

What parts of your case am I skipping?

[davesaz]

Do yall want me to put L-whatever next to peoples names to make it easier?

I agree with the earlier posts asking for a count, and also find the L-whatever to be helpful.

[davesaz]

He really does not have to do that. And we should avoid talking about who might be a mason in general.

Yeah, he does. He was wrong, whoever he thought was Mason

with

NPAU is obviously not so there is no reason not to explain his thought process behind that read.

I'm not asking him to out a Mason. I'm asking him to explain how he came to an incorrect read on somebody being Mason

with

NPAU.

If the person who was not Mason with NPAU is still mason, talking about the reasons I thought that person was mason with NPAU would out their role.

I know you're not this dense. Your play has otherwise been very strong, both in this game and the completed newbie game. Therefore you're trying to get me to identify one of the masons for you, while still espousing the belief that outing them is bad.

VOTE: BBT

[davesaz]

Wisdom, Mala, etc.: Have a look at the beginning of day 3 in this game.
I will leave it to you to draw your own conclusions.

BBT, if you're town you really need to change your tack. Like really quick.

[davesaz]

Dave, your read on the Mason was in direct relation to NPAU, correct?

You said you had other parts? Ones which don't involve the on/off/on vote and reasoning behind it? I think you should move on now.

[davesaz]

FFS? I can't even guess what that one is.

[davesaz]

You wanted to out the Masons here. Now though, it's so anti-town that you couldn't even possibly consider it.

I think they should claim. Since they have not, I conclude they think it's a bad idea. I'm deferring to their judgment.

Final

answer.

[davesaz]

As Town, you don't fight the wagon because

a lynch on Town is better then no lynch at all,

plus you can't be certain you're right - maybe the people who put the wagon at L-1 are on to something.

This is exactly the same point I made when questioned by BBT. Emphasis added.

Sorry, I was sleeping or would have repeated myself before you answered your own question.

[davesaz]

Ok, so Uticron is actually town, That's good to know. I probably should have read him as town when he was arguing with shinobi, but i felt like most of that argument was over playstyle and game theory.

Can you point to what makes you think uctritron is town?

[davesaz]

Why did you stay on the wagon?
Why didn't you try to stop the wagon?
Why didn't you try to push somebody else's wagon?

With 10 hours left in the day? When I thought the most likely alternative (GM) would probably be worse? Also see my recent response to GM's question / self answer. Find the same thing in my ISO earlier. See me getting all concerned about a no lynch, and actually pushing people

like you

to vote NPAU (and then unvote, I might add).

Spoiler:

Sigh.

It feels genuine. I still don't like it took her near 2 weeks to present it, but w/e.

UNVOTE:

I guess I just didn't expect it to take that long, especially when you named 4 or 5 people that you have played with before that you said you would be able to gain reads on quickly.

It doesn't matter now anyway.

VOTE: NPAU

What is the town motivation behind 'Watching the thread and clock' on a wagon you don't feel sure of?

If a wagon I agreed with had formed, and it looked like it would go through, I would have switched to it. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out.
The NPAU wagon was the best (ONLY) hope of a lynch, which is

better for town

than a no-lynch.

[davesaz]

Time stamp of

watch the clock post

Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:15 am
time stamp of deadline expired on 2014-10-04 20:45:00

Can you do math?

[davesaz]

Starting a new wagon with 10 hours left is pissing in the wind. At that point, we needed to not have a no-lynch.

The time before that? Trying to figure out the connections, duh. I did not find anything, and returned to the only wagon which would work.
Scum would never leave the wagon to begin with.

I repeat, are you really this dense? You're scum and I'm voting you. You're wiggling exactly the same way you wiggled when Thor voted you at the top of D3 in our newbie.
I, on the other hand, am calmly refuting every thing you try to throw.

[davesaz]

So the new post 891 invalidates all the points I made in my latest. Don't know why its coming so late, but I really do like the content -- which makes sense though I may disagree with some of the conclusions. It's obviously not a response to the one I was in the middle of writing, and it's a lot more comprehensive than you'd expect from the other Mala post on this page.

Next question -- BBT, I know that Mala could have posted this specifically in response to your read and engineered it to address your point, but what if it's genuine?

Sigh.

It feels genuine. I still don't like it took her near 2 weeks to present it, but w/e.

UNVOTE:

I guess I just didn't expect it to take that long, especially when you named 4 or 5 people that you have played with before that you said you would be able to gain reads on quickly.

It doesn't matter now anyway.

VOTE: NPAU

Look at this sequence of posts. Observe the post numbers.

How can you say that I did not influence you getting on the NPAU wagon? A misrep and a lie is how. You misrepped what I was doing, and lied about not being influenced by me.

What gave me pause on NPAU?

Your easy willingness to switch to the wagon

, that's what. I expected there to be fight. I read that willingness as scum, and when you changed to GM it just reinforced scum.

I gave a naked read that scum could be found in {BBT, Mala, Josh}. The point of that read was actually to find out which of them went ballistic and which brushed it off. Ever heard of a reaction test?

BBT wins the grand prize by going ballistic. Can I get some support please?

[davesaz]

Why didn't I push you? Because without your current behavior the vote switch wasn't enough. It was enough to make me look harder at completely unrelated activity. That look took some time.

[davesaz]

Not a contradiction.

NPAU is slightly scummy. GM is much more town.
Don't believe I can start a wagon and get it to a lynch.
Don't believe anyone else will either.
Need to verify not a PR.
Willing to switch votes, if someone does manage to get something going.
Not willing to abandon the only acceptable lynch we have and possibly end up with a worse lynch or no-lynch if it disintegrates totally.

Totally logical, from this position. Possible outcomes in order of most desired to least. NPAU wagon was going to be one of the first 2. Avoid 3rd result.

Lynch scum
Lynch town, not a PR
No lynch
Lynch a PR

[davesaz]

Confirming that NPAU is on the scum side of null for me.
Both observations on my 448 are correct, it's a statement of scumminess and scumhunting to do so. The (lack of) result does not look good for town NPAU.

I didn't expect BBT to be so obliging so quickly. This causes some reassessment (in the townward direction), though I also need to keep the principle in BBT's signature in mind.

pedit -- I'm very undecided on Huntress. I don't have experience of her previous games to work with and the behavior in this game doesn't really ping alignment in either direction.

You mean this post? Which refers to an earlier one?

[davesaz]

1257 does not answer the contradiction.

Read the question. Try again.

I concede the point on you providing reasoning for being on the NPAU wagon. Very little reasoning, but still reasoning.

Point out two things which are mutually exclusive. You can't have a contradiction without it.

pedit: I needed to check something, does not imply that thinking about that something is what made me think I needed to check. i.e. Wisdom is correct.

[davesaz]

There were also other things that made me want to check. I'm not going to point those out, for the obvious reason.

[davesaz]

Or more precisely, other things which told me

what

to check.

[davesaz]

How many days did it take for the existing wagon to develop?
You think I'm arrogant enough to expect that I can singlehandedly pick a dark horse and push a wagon?
No, I had no reasonable expectation of certainty that anyone could do it, in any length of time.

I was willing to switch if it did happen. Where does that say I expected it to happen.

Expecting it to not happen is not mutually exclusive with wanting it to happen, and that is not mutually exclusive with being willing to switch if it does happen.
You are comparing apples to oranges, there can be no contradiction in that kind of comparison.

[davesaz]

Thanks for the unofficial count, Wisdom.

I really need to consider not tunneling back. At a minimum there is another scum to catch, and worst case if BBT goes off as either alignment then my scum read on him becomes a little weaker and maybe we need to find two.

There is a technique in submarine hunting where you drop a torpedo in the water and observe how all your tracks maneuver as a result. Same thing goes for scum hunting, and that means now is a good time to put in some quality analysis of everyone else.

[davesaz]

I've thought all along that there are two. If it's 3 then the logic that led me to believe it was ok for masons to claim now was wrong.

[davesaz]

We could put hephaestus to the lurker vs. absent test. Run up a wagon, and see how long it takes him to appear and how he responds to the accusation.
I've thought it was scummy all along, but wanted to hold off to see if it was really just RL pressure.
This is by no means the strongest possible approach, but it's something that might get results.

VOTE: hephaestus

[davesaz]

I've thought all along that there are two. If it's 3 then the logic that led me to believe it was ok for masons to claim now was wrong.

What logic was that?

Two masons claim: two confirmed town. The pool of possible scum is reduced by two, and scum are pretty much obligated to NK the masons to avoid an unwinnable lylo.
Two masons and two scum claim: All scum have to be within the 4 people who claimed. They claimed in pairs, so it only takes at most 3 lynches to finish the scum team.

With a 3 scum team the 2nd clause is false.

[davesaz]

It will take me a little time to update reads. A lot has to be reexamined based on corrected assumptions.

[davesaz]

Previously answered. I had a scum read on NPAU.

The timing. You reacted to my post. This indicates that my post influenced what you did. My observation is more about what I was doing, which was trying to get people to agree on a lynch. Which, from my stated belief that a mislynch is better than a no lynch, is perfectly in character with how I should act as town. Not to mention, at that point in time I still thought it more likely NPAU to be scum than town. The later reservation on my part was

partially

triggered by the speed with which you changed your vote.

Already answered in 1287. There is no contradiction, these are not mutually exclusive concepts. It is perfectly valid for them to both be true.

[davesaz]

So, BBT asked where the scum were while he was tunneling me. If I step back and assume BBT is town to be asking that question (which is unproven but is a reasonable what-if) then I'm wondering the same thing. I could see one being active and holding back strategically, but you'd expect at least one sheep and possibly two. If BBT is town, Huntress could be a sheep scum -- but I had town read her previous play. With or without her as a possible scum team member, this makes me think we have scum who were either watching what was going on and waiting to see if a couple of town jumped in first, or the scum were completely absent.

I think we need to take a really close look at the people who didn't post during that time, or posted very little.

Of course, BBT could know exactly where the scum were and it was just a rhetorical question. That needs to be sorted as well.

As if we don't have enough stuff to figure out, I haven't completely ruled out the possibility that the obvious WK was exactly that. Wisdom could be scum WKing to get me as a supporter for later. This seems a rather remote possibility but I'm not going to make any rash assumptions about Wisdom being obvious town as a result of it. Plus I don't remember what read I had on that slot from before.

[davesaz]

What I don't get is why nobody has bothered to look at who Scripten would be dangerous to. Or if you're looking, nobody is saying anything about it.

Have you looked yourself? If so, what did you find? (And if you didn't, why are you expecting others to do it for you?) I think most of us look and at least one person has already got something from it.

My comment did result in replies, and I got useful information from them. In particular Josh_B said it was unproductive to look at this, Wisdom said it's a good idea to look, and you've implied in your followup question that you may have looked into it.

I don't remember seeing anything that would lead from Scripten to a scum team, when I looked myself. If I did see anything specific, it wasn't significant enough to comment on.

[davesaz]

At the point I made the comment, I had not looked. It was much later when I really looked into it myself.

In my past experience, people always comment on the NK. But that experience was on other sites with vastly different play styles.

On the gripping hand, I was interested to see what reaction there might be to broaching the topic, since nobody else had. As you can see, there were differences in the responses.

[davesaz]

POE pile? Meaning you have absolutely no true scum reads, just people who aren't town?

[davesaz]

I too would not be surprised if the whole NPAU wagon was town. There were plenty of people watching and ignoring what was going on there. And there were people who were on at one point and ended up off. Scum who can get off in lieu of town who are willing to push the mislynch end up looking townish, with the bonus ability to attack the town who stayed on the wagon.

This is a factor in the logic which had me thinking BBT's attack on me was scum motivated. He gets on the wagon, notices I'm waffling and therefore a future target, gets off the wagon and goes back to GM which is where he started. Today he attacks me, meets real resistance and backs off. IIRC (going by memory because I'm working and in a hurry) he jumps on Josh and backs off when he sees town leaving that wagon. Won't give a solid scum read now. He jumped back to the comfort zone of GM, and then unvoted again. What's with running back to the GM wagon every time a wagon starts to lose traction?

Not going to sheep onto Shinobi, but I do plan to review him after work, as well as some others.

[davesaz]

Rereads are fun, especially when they reveal inconsistencies which border on bald-faced lies.

Shinobi, on the subject of BBT: Bold added for emphasis.

I'm putting BBT in my anti-sheep list. That's how little faith I have in him right now.

I haven't really been paying attention to this game much, so consider this somewhat of a prod dodge/catch up post.

BBT vs Mala looks almost exactly like a bog-standard TvT fight

: lots of point-by-point analysis being done on each other and lots of passion from both sides. I'd really like you two to stop fighting and to move on to something else, because it looks like you two butt heads every single time you're both in the thread.

I can't even remember where my vote is or why I put it there, so UNVOTE: .

NPAU is scummy for the following reasons: his frequent vote swapping/shoddy reasoning is more in-line with spreading doubt rather than solving the game, but somebody probably already pointed it out.

Someone is going to have to explain the GM wagon to me at some point, and preferably in non-MS terms. Mala's case seems okay but some evidence would be great.

Also, if the people calling me scummy could, like, shut up, that would be great. I'll get more up-to-date at some point.

Very softly calling BBT (and Mala) town, but does not give an explicit read.

Strangely, IMO, there are no significant references to BBT by Shinobi for the remainder of day 1. Or at least not that pulling an ISO and hitting ctrl-f can find.

Unless your point is that bbt's bullshit don't make dave scum, in which case I fully agree.

GM is talking about how Josh's moving to a wagon at the last second with total conviction and a desire to avoid lynching town has neither town nor scum motivation; thus it only has town motivation behind it.

The question touches on BBT and the answer goes a completely different direction.

Idk, BBT's case feels really convoluted because Dave wound up on the wagon anyway. I'm probably going to look over what he's saying but I didn't feel particularly convinced when I read his case the first time.

I really don't understand how people think they're the same thing, because I don't think they are.

Not a strong endorsement of a supposed town read's read, but it's not unusual to admit someone's case is convoluted. Not especially indicative.

Except I've tried to sort out BBT twice now and I've poked at Mala.

How is this not engaging anyone? Have I just not engaged enough people for your liking or what? I think that Josh is scum, so saying that all I care for is making my scumread look bad is silly, especially when that's not even the case.

As far as I can tell, this is clearly a lie. Only one previous post could be construed as sorting BBT, and BBT was only mentioned in a very soft "looks like Tvt" way, not a concrete read.

lol

BBT is funny.

Honorable mention for at least mentioning BBT. lol

You're acting like I should have solid reads on every single player in the game right now and I don't.

Mala isn't posting so I can't question her.
GM is hardly playing so I can't question her. I've already tried asking you about her and you're just like "nah I don't think stuff about that stuff." I thought she was scummy earlier but I guess that just kind of evaporated into nothingness because you wanted it to.
Heph isn't playing so I can't question him.

I've had a townread on BBT for a while now and I don't know how you missed that.

I think you're town and I've explained that read.
I've already discovered that uct is town.
I think Josh is scum and I've explained why.
I don't feel like the dave case is strong, and I have a slight gut townread on him but that's it.

Realistically the only players I don't really have reads on for whatever reason are Peabody and Huntress, and I think it's more-or-less a lack of interest in those players. I don't know what you're doing here.

How about this is a lie, or at least a misrep of himself, because he never actually gave a concrete read.

At this rate, I see the day going to deadline.

Can we vote Shinobi or BBT already?

Nobody is going to listen to you because I'm town, so I don't know what you're trying to do here.

And I think BBT is town, so...Good luck with that, bro.

And the strong "BBT is town" shows up only when we get some associations going.

I'm not totally convinced on BBT being scum as an independent case, but it surely looks like Shinobi is.

VOTE: Shinobi

[davesaz]

Quotes please.

[davesaz]

Yeah, I'm not you, but it still does not make sense from a town perspective. You dropped the scumread too easily, and notably you did it when someone mentioned that the 1v1 might be town vs town. And since then you haven't cared about rereading uctriton despite him not being what you'd call the towniest player in the game.

It makes total sense that you did that to appease uctriton. "Come on dude, let's stop fighting, I think you're town now, so please think I'm town too"

And yeah, I'm not attacking you for supporting a wagon on josh, so that made no sense.

You're doing exactly that: you attacked me for "burying Josh" when he already proved that he was making up reasons to read people.

Also, I can kill dave for that last post. I called Mala town several times and I called BBT town several times. He's ignoring parts of my ISO to push me and it stinks.

Quotes please.

Ahem, if I misrepped you, and you posted something that says you were townreading BBT, it should be trivial to quote it.
Silence?

Can we agree on a lynch here folks?

[davesaz]

@Shinobi, making a single reference to TvT and saying nothing more is not the same thing as a read. And that single reference does not make "multiple times".

@Mala, it's important for us to have a detailed explanation of your BBT and Shinobi reads, because they're coming up a solid scum read for multiple people. I in particular could use some input because I'm seeing multiple sets of people who could be town who are agreeing with each other or could be scum together.

[davesaz]

So yeah my townpool reads look like this {GM, Wisdom, Huntress, BBT, Shinobi, {josh}}

You're missing at least one definite, really obvious townie. And it's more important to know which of the not listed people is your biggest scum read.

[davesaz]

@Shinobi, making a single reference to TvT and saying nothing more is not the same thing as a read. And that single reference does not make "multiple times".

Calling a fight between two players town vs town =/= calling them town?

Oh the jubbery.

When you have 172 posts in a thread and only mention it once, in passing, it sure as hell is not obvious that it's a read.
Once again, you later said that you had called BBT town multiple times. Is the place where you said the word multiple supposed to count as one of the multiple?
I'm seeing your responses as being that you're responding to the text of what I'm saying but not the idea behind the text.

[davesaz]

My biggest scumread is Uct; the person I'm voting.

Pay attention to my behavior. It's there to see, if you're willing to see it.

Thanks for the answer on Shinobi. If the lie I'm running down weren't really a lie then I'd be back to being willing to think of him as town, or at least not immediately scum. He's certainly not the only player who has caught my interest.

Did you post details on Uct? Going to the store but I have time to look back later, so if you did then no need to repeat. If you didn't, then pretty please?

Pedit @Shinobi. Look, that kind of inconsistency is a scumtell. It's like one of the most important scumtells that doesn't rely on VCA, and it needs to be investigated. Please don't take it personally. I was kinda hoping you might post content or something, to back your case, instead of getting upset about it.

UNVOTE:

Spoiler: Note to future self:

I'm going to be incredibly pissed with myself if it turns out this guy really was scum, because that will make 2 games out of 5 starts that I had something and dropped it.

[davesaz]

Well, this just gets more and more confusing as the days go by. I think I'll wait to see if Nero's catchup comes today.

[davesaz]

@BBT what confuses me is that the scum reads from the various people

seem

to form several cycles, like a->b->c->d->a.
I'm going to have to really focus and work out what it really is. But it's late at night and I can't take the necessary time right now.

[davesaz]

Dave needs to see some posts by a replacement.

[davesaz]

Because Metal Sonic gave me a headache to read at all, and then Wisdom did that big 180, and several other people keep shifting around (don't remember which ones bother me the most) so my read on pretty much the whole game is shot to hell right now.

[davesaz]

And yes, I agree that I need to do that.

[davesaz]

I have to read it again to even know that. Are you having difficulty comprehending my words?

[davesaz]

Let's revisit this post.

I have Mala, GM, and Davesaz as town.
Peabody is town, but I'm less sure.

That leaves BBT and Shinobi claiming to know that each other is town, but claiming to not be masons.
And that Leaves
Wisdom/MS and Nero/heph claiming that each other is town.

I'm definitely thinking that one group is scum. Are they scum or are they masons? or are neither of them scum, and neither of them masons.
It's like it's multiball only one team is town and one team is scum.

Without getting into masons again, I have a big question about your comment that the Wisdom/MS and Nero/heph slots are claiming each other as town. Can you point to the places where these slots actually said that, in a definite way? Not just a read between the lines joking around type incident, but where they actually meant it?

[davesaz]

@Josh, looking more into that same post, I see Shinobi calling BBT town, but can't find BBT calling Shinobi town, at least not in a definite way.

So I'm lacking evidence on 3 of the 4 people you put into pairs with each other. Looks like you have some serious explaining to do.

[davesaz]

Why not? Josh makes connections between Wisdom and Nero, and between BBT and Shinobi. I pointed out that these connections don't actually exist. If Josh is totally making up connections, where's the town motivation in that?

Note, I'm not asking what the connections really are, I"m asking for where Josh thought he saw connections. If I'm missing something, then fine let's see the evidence.

[davesaz]

The other replacement.

[davesaz]

Re-read complete, one more piece of data would help.
Nero, what's your read on uctriton?

I'm having the most trouble getting a concrete read on BBT and MS/Wisdom. BBT because I'm hard pressed to find anyone he hasn't found scummy at one point, and Wisdom because of the hard reset.

I'm confident of Huntress, Mala, uctriton as being town. GM and Nero are probably town.

Best candidates for scum, according to the re-read analysis, are Josh and Shinobi. Peabody is a weak scum read, with BBT or the Wisdom slot on the bubble.

BBT is a special case. His play is very strong and aggressive, to the point that I think I've seen him pushing on everyone in the game. This could be a really active VT. What gives me pause and prevents me from just calling him obvtown, is that he played the exact same way in our previous game together, and he was scum in that game. I'm afraid that if he is town, and we both survive to LYLO, I'll WIFOM him into the scum slot and lose. And equally afraid that he could be scum and we'll write him off as obvtown. So I put him in the waffly category and hope that others who don't have a recent bad beat against him can sort it properly. Unfortunately, some other players reads on him are wavering too.

[davesaz]

BTW, anticipating the "what took you so long" post. That took me between 3 and 6 hours (maybe even more) of real time, time sliced over the past 2 days. The text file with the notes I took while researching is 173 lines long, and that has just the hilights.

[davesaz]

Nero, it would really help me to know your uct read.

[davesaz]

@MOD, you complained about missing pagetop but didn't fill in a VC

There was one close to it and I didn't want to spam vote counts.

[davesaz]

I assume you meant NL instead of ML.
Scum reads?

[davesaz]

Looks like a day and 9 hours left. I'd prefer to let Aegor catch all the way up first.

[davesaz]

going to hammer once Peabody gets to L-1. I think Peabody's defenders are sketchy.

How about this, you choose who you're going to vote for, and leave the hammer for someone else.

[davesaz]

Actually, changed my mind. I've been WIFOMing and it's preventing me from going with the person I really feel is scummiest.

VOTE: BBT

[davesaz]

If you read what I've been posting, you know that I said that BBT is either super scum or super town, and I honestly don't know which one. The choice is between my weakest, just barely scummy by a hair Peabody, or the possibly-might-be-the-scummiest-ever BBT.

I now know that uct and BBT are either both town or both scum.

VOTE: Peabody

[davesaz]

^ Or at least, it's not uct scum and BBT town... Could perhaps be the opposite...

[davesaz]

Town uct still has the option to no-lynch if he thinks you're town, in which case we get to see what Aegor is made of. If he shows up.

[davesaz]

Oh, and I'm town either way.

[davesaz]

I took note of that, and have been asking questions related to the concept.

[davesaz]

I'm wondering which 1-2 of us who aren't here now are scum.

[davesaz]

I didn't like the way the end of day went. I'm thinking more and more that Uct and BBT are both scum. The NK makes that more likely as well.

VOTE: uctriton00

[davesaz]

That's interesting, BBT's claim came before my day start PM, if I can believe the timestamps.
Maybe just a coincidence, but on the surface it looks like thread sitting. If that's even a concept here.

[davesaz]

I'm not really convinced Nero is town. I could see Huntress as scum, she's one of my weaker town reads. I found some things which seem to support BBT's claim. The slot I'm most uncertain about is MS/Wisdom/Aegor. Totally need to do more reading of the thread to refine all this, other than the BBT claim which I have looked deeply at.

Pedit: I have seen both town and scum in Josh's posting, at various times. I have seen BBT organizing a LYLO vote when scum, but don't know if that is significant enough to override the evidence supporting the mason claim. I agree that it is quite possible to make VCA on its own mean almost anything you want it to. I think it is best used to narrow down re-reading of interactions.

[davesaz]

That's exactly the approach I've been taking. It is time consuming, but has yielded results before.

[davesaz]

Well, at least the last reads I posted were partially right.

The modding was OK, I might suggest vote counts a little more frequently.