Micro 488: Forest Fire - Endgame

[pieguyn]

the only argument I could *potentially* see for scum-RBD bussing is that he didn't vote sangres or really push them as hard as I would have expected him to. but I don't really think that's that big of a deal, either.

(this isn't what I was alluding to when I said I wanted to make a town-RBD case, btw, just in case)

[Phenenas]

Vote Count 2.3

Rancid Broderick Drake - 4 (Soft-spoken, Gyre and Gimble, BBmolla, sangres, pieguyn) L-1

Soft-spoken - 1 (pieguyn) L-4

Not Voting: Gentlemen Bastards, Rancid Broderick Drake, Gold Saucer

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch. Deadline is July 12th, 7 PM CST. This is (expired on 2015-07-12 19:59:21) from now.

[Soft-spoken]

the whole time i was agnostic RE:yuriko , so why would i be on board with finalizing a policy lynch before the day ended. dipwit.

[Soft-spoken]

hell, ive been agnostic about everyone but you all game hon. you were my only solid TR ... so i guess it makes sense that you fos me afterall.

[sangres]

Remind me why pieguy was a solid town read?

[Soft-spoken]

everything about pie felt natural all game. every time i tried to second guess town alignment on pie it felt like undue paranoia. unless pie is a masterful liar, things like

I had a dream the other night that this game was plurality, RBD was lynched with only 2 votes, flipped scum and the game ended. maybe this is a sign I'm wrong?!?!

point to pie being town. dreaming about a game implies considerable effort in analysis. while the dream comment is fakeable, why add the bit about plurality lynch? its seems like the type of thing that would have significance in a subconscious exploration of the game... and a detail of a type that is unique in a way that most liars wouldn't think to add.

just one recent example of the type of thing that keeps occurring when pie posts.

[sangres]

Yeah I'm more comfortable voting Rancid.

[Soft-spoken]

also worth noting that im prety sure gold is town, but only for mechanical reasons. middle of the heap on a scum lynch is nearly always town. basically its always town unless scum premeditates the vote position to throw off someone who is privy to this voting mechanic

[sangres]

Pie? Do you have some more Rancid-town case that you want to put down?

I really don't think it's S-s. I don't feel strongly that it is Rancid, but there are stronger reasons to see everyone else as town at this point.

If there's a day 3, then I think it needs to start with a hard look at GG and GB.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

@Pie -

Want to hear your town-read on RBD elaborated on (Your Post 1649 is mainly what you disagree re; the case on them but I want to hear why you lean town on them as promised in Post 1650) because they're only a super super weak town read of mine with PoE pointing towards them very plausible being scum here and Empire leans on them being scum and given how the days playing out we're p comfortable with them being lynched at this stage.

@Sangres, I imagine the above post is a ffyer one, am I right?

I do like Softs reasoning for town reading Pie in Post 1655.

every single one of you had S-S as "town" or "100% town" until pie posted his case so i'm a bit irritated with GB's pokes. nonetheless, i don't think any player has adequately explained muffina town or anything that shows him scumhunting, engaged in the game, or whatever. in fact, he looks like he's ready to quit

To put it simply I have more concerns with Softs play (re; how he ignored the case on Yuriko, him leaving options open and coasting based on town-reads that he had ect.) then I do with Muffin, at the same time I find a lot of Softs play D1 (The townslip progression hi reaction afterwards ect.) to read more town than anything that Muffins done so while PoE (I've got really really strong town reads on everyone else including your slot now mostly based on Hito posts) does mean that scum is inside the two of them I'm not super confident which it is and I didn't like the way you were handwaving the Soft case without reading it.

this is really strange, because i picked up 1430 and read it as really bad the entirety of the post is useless and doesn't contribute to the gamestate. i wrote in my hydra pt ":uselessposting:". the first paragraph is a prodge excuse, second paragraph is *lol i have no reads everyone maybe town* in a paragraph. 3rd paragraph, also useless what does Empire say about it?

I liked the second paragraph since it matched my "poe says scums in here but I'm not confident in it since they look kinda town" stance since it's where I am/was at the time and the promise of reads/content before potentially replacing out looks good, the fact there was no follow through on that at all however negates that town-tell entirely. Empire didn't read it as town at all ftr.

[sangres]

@Sangres, I imagine the above post is a ffyer one, am I right?

You are right.

[Gyre and Gimble]

it is just as likely, for instance, that Nati just didn't give a shit bc she was letting zmuffin control the vote - that kind of mindset (letting one person have control of the vote) I think is fairly common in hydras. I also think that all of zmuffin's scum reads outside of Yuriko were fairly ambivalent - with me you had "don't like how she played this but there's a few posts I really don't think she's capable of", with sangres I don't think he ever really nailed down that read - so I still don't see why him not moving his vote off Yuriko throughout all this means anything.

That's the problem, though - why not use the vote where the action is? Why engage solely on ambiguous reads and glean nothing from it?

If Yuriko was being lynched solely on policy, then it would make much more sense for that vote to move out and only circle on to Yuriko near EOD. If Yuriko was being lynched on reads - it implies that they're throwing down these massive walls they care so much about, yet simultaneously find less relevant than the couple of posts Yuriko said at the beginning.

Yes, Yuriko never really posted in that middle stretch. So how on earth were those couple of posts of idle setup spec the only points worth using the vote to pressure, in a game where RBD was so heavily invested?

To put it another way - if RBD only had 20 posts day 1 I would be a lot more in line with you. But go and read some of those wall posts, and then mentally append them with "but idle setup speculation from Yuriko is still the lead I want to pursue, as it was the scummiest thing to happen this game", and tell me how coherent those posts seem.

Here's a funny one:

You (and nacho) seem to be suggesting that my post #119, before anything had even taken place (as in, before GB had even seen your #112 and responded to it) is bad because I "took a side". And since you're now also pushing this line of reasoning, I'm just going to nip this awful shit in the bud.

There was no fucking argument to take sides on.

I commented on your god-awful push because that's what it was; a god-awful push. In the first place, if you thought pushing Yuriko was scummy, then you should have been attacking other players who also thought this (like, oh, I don't know, the person voting her?) and if you thought his bork read was scummy, then you should have also been attacking anyone else who formed the same read. But you didn't mention them, and went straight for an argument with the person voting you because... they mentioned that you'd been posting elsewhere, even though that clearly wasn't the primary reason they were voting you.

But ignoring that and the other issues I had with your initial push on gentlemen, you (and nacho) seem to be either mixing up or misrepresenting the sequence of events. gentlemen hadn't responded. I didn't comment on the strength of gentlemen's at the time non-existent arguments against you because, surprise fucking surprise, it was non-existent (as was the second point you made against him in this post). I commented on your post and your post alone. Conflating this with what I did in bork's IN is just dumb (and, by the way, you've actually used against me as scum before, so if I were scum and you were town, I'd know you know about it and avoid anything that could be perceived as similar like the fucking plague).

So nacho's dumb argument that bork's take on it was town for looking at both sides of the argument and criticising both sides and I'm scum because I only attacked pieguy is fucking dumb, and part of why I think nacho's bullshitting his read on me. At some point he also suggested instead that I was egging gentlemen on or something, but that's just as bad an argument because (a) IF #112 is as town as nacho is suggesting it is, then gentlemen might have seen that too and what I said about it wouldn't have influenced their opinion on it (like it apparently didn't influence sangres's opinion on it, but oh, I might have influenced gentlemen because they're pure shit at the game or something), and (b) I didn't need to do anything as scum there if an argument was inevitably going to break out (I could have, for example, just refrained from commenting on it, which is probably what I would have done if I actually were scum - at least until an argument was actually happening) - nothing I said there could have possibly influenced anyone's opinion on that post.

You suggesting this is similar to me taking sides in an argument in that bork-game is equally dumb because (a) even if it were, taking sides is part of mafia anyway (and it's not like you've never seen me do that as town), but (b) there were no sides to take on the 1v1 because

there was no 1v1

.

But idle setup speculation from Yuriko is still the lead I want to pursue, as it was the scummiest thing to happen this game.

[Gyre and Gimble]

Trivia corner: Suppose you think Yuriko and sangres are the scumteam. If you could have either one as a confirmed town treesstump in the event you were wrong, which one would you pick?

[Gyre and Gimble]

Like damn I can't believe I didn't think of that before. Metal did you think of it and I missed it?

Oh, and just because I wanna be able to point back to this in post-game and brag about my reads.

Calling a Yuriko-Nacho scum team right now.

If that's not the team, this post never happened and no one ever read it.

-Nati

One million percent this should be a sangres vote (probably even before this but this is just an easy one to find in ISO). They're the one around to respond to your suspicion who could potentially come off better or worse, and they're the ones you want as stumps if you're wrong.

Anyway I'll stop spam posting and go to sleep, that one just literally occurred to me in a flash - I posted the bigger post, went to get a snack before bed, and it hit me out of nowhere.

[Gyre and Gimble]

nope, didn't think of that

hito is awesome

[Soft-spoken]

[quote="In post 1659how he ignored the case on Yuriko[/quote] there was no case on yuriko. RBD making a half assed attempt at one is the main reason he was in the group of people i was willing to lynch. anyone trying to make a legitimate case on someone who made 1 post either believes they are gods gift to mafia or are entirely full of it in some other manner

[Soft-spoken]

sorry about that

how he ignored the case on Yuriko

there was no case on yuriko. RBD making a half assed attempt at one is the main reason he was in the group of people i was willing to lynch. anyone trying to make a legitimate case on someone who made 1 post either believes they are gods gift to mafia or are entirely full of it in some other manner

[Gyre and Gimble]

I DID think of that^

my point exactly

[pieguyn]

I'm going to sound like a huge dick saying this _now_, but when I was making this I realized it wasn't anywhere near as strong as I initially thought it was. most of the reasoning I have is essentially that the way he did a lot of things in this game isn't like how I usually expect him to play as scum, but there's nothing that's indicates he's omg-basically-conftown like there is with everyone else.

so, meh. I don't really think I want to pursue this further. I also think I agree with 1662.

[pieguyn]

essentially, starting to agree he might just be scum and I was on the wrong track with S-S this whole time

I kind of want to just go ahead and hammer.

[Gyre and Gimble]

time to lay down the ham

Unless we're waiting for something

[Soft-spoken]

I DID think of that^

my point exactly

ya i read your post after i made that one... you also mention something else that pinged with me before... the RBD "im not taking sides, there are no sides to take" agro post @ sangres happened right before i switched to RBD d1. i wasnt willing to commit to "rbd is scum because that post gave me the undefined jeebies" yet but i was hoping my relatively naked vote would cause more interaction and/or encourage a BW

[pieguyn]

god damn it though I _really_ don't see zmuffin's scum game here

I'm gonna take a shower, come back, and then figure out what I want to do about this.

[Gyre and Gimble]

I am hungry

this is one of the times I don't want to look at pieguy

nom

[Gyre and Gimble]

on topic: not seeing scumgame =\= town

son-ic tzu's words of wisdom: sometimes the obvious scum is just scum