Micro 488: Forest Fire - Endgame

[Gyre and Gimble]

Hi

We've been literally waiting forever to replace in

Ego post and I forgot hydra password and I'm super tired and well this is a check in

Sheesh, I PM'd it to you ages ago.

Ego-posting with the actual hydra. Metal, you better not hydra slip over and over - it's kind of dangerous to have this thread in the ego for your main - plus I was hoping for no slipping so we could lord it over Nacho

Don't think I'll 55 page catchup tomorrow, but since we have a flipped scum I'll probably just read their ISO and see if I can catch the buddy with fresh eyes.

[Gyre and Gimble]

Sonic checking in from hydra main

ready to lock and load

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Oh hah, I was going to just go to bed because it's 2am but figured I'd get the scope of the YJ ISO and it was so short I just did it. Not really anything to go on.

Maybe a slight scum case can be made for:

I'm making VERY slow progress here. After reading the first 6 pages for three times, I think pie and GB are possibly both town as I can see both coming from town and the sensible scum approach would not to be arguing about things again and again.

So many diminutives makes me feel like this is YJ trying to give a read on a buddy and being so terrified she wraps it in a million safety nets (so one of pie/GB). But it's not that strong of a tell.

So the YJ ISO didn't really help. Well, I'll figure out some clever way to catch up tomorrow.

ps. we can maybe sign posts if you really care, but something tells me it will be pretty clear which posts are hito posts and which posts are sonic posts.

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i have an exam tomorrow so we'll probably catchup tomorrow

hito is busy too

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also UNVOTE: because the last VC had quil voting himself which is bad

also lets strive for perfect town win perfection is key

and 7 days to deadline is a goodly time

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oh and pieguy is obvious town

so is nachoffery

these are my townreads from what little i've read

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gentlemen bastards probbly town too

more soon

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hi

i am ready to full scan this thread for the last scum

hito is yet to be here

we'll synch up, and if we magically agree, we'll push whoever it is

gosh.... on my first post?

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/page 10

wait, this did seriously take 2 hours

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no, it took 1 hour

this is going to suck

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i read every single word

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/20

this is a very healthy game

full of multivitamins and joy and love and all you need for a balanced diet!

the opposite of cancer!

its so healthy im gonna die

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i'm on level 5 analysis mode

level 6 includes timestamps analysis

i am not at level 6

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i kind of want to play smite

this dramonic is evil. i was tempted to join smite and now he doesnt accept my friend request???? evil. pure evil.

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all catchup thoughts withheld until i can synch with hito


~all sonic

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you can, however, ask me stuff

i will also ask ffery why she isnt joining PIEGUY'S SAKI MAFIA

YOU GUYS SHOULD JOIN

what a fun playerlist

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no

this is my first game in a hydra with hito

in fact,

this is the first game that i'm PLAYING with hito.

i have never played in a game with hito before. if i did, i don't remember.

only played the games he mods. he is one of my idols. he modded my 2nd game on the site and it was very very well done

AND

this playerlist is one of the best, most pristine ever. it is the best playerlist i have ever seen in mafiascum, especially when yuriko (conveniently scum) was exhumed. even better than team mafia

so yes, i am going to take this game seriously. we want to perfect win. at least i do.

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*hugs ffery*

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this playerlist is one of the best, most pristine ever. it is the best playerlist i have ever seen in mafiascum, especially when yuriko (conveniently scum) was exhumed. even better than team mafia

ok this sounded a little mean to yuriko

let me make up for that with a compliment:

"you have a pretty avatar"

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Sneaking on a little bit at work.

this is ffery.

When you hydra do you usually synch before posting analysis?

I'm pre-inned to a game that's going to start soon, and I can't handle lots of simultaneous games right now, so I'm exercising draconian self-control and not looking at queues right now.

I've only done two hydrae before this one. In Copper, we tended to just mind-meld and gave each other authority to unilaterally do stuff. It worked because we were very similar in thoughts and tone (we were actually confused as a one-person posts hydra because we were so consistent.) As Twilight Sparkle, it was sort of a wild west punctuated with occasionally live-chat catchups.

Metal and I would like to live catch up but the time zone thing is quite rough for that. Ultimately, I'm not that concerned about avoiding hydra dissonance; if pie has an easy time reading Metal, I'd much rather let him loose than have him making fewer posts or non-transparent posts in the interests of hydra unity. This is doubly true given how town-sided our situation is - fundamentally if we just don't get mislynched, we're already exerting a ton of pressure for our slot, with catching scum being just a bonus. Obviously it's best if we can come to a beautiful accord ASAP, but the most important thing is allowing Metal to post naturally and be easily townread.

Anyway, Metal as primary driving force was sort of the reason I wanted to make the hydra - I think Metal does a really good job putting effort in and finding stuff, whereas he can use help with editorial restraint and mechanics knowledge. So mostly I'm looking at the large number of posts that ping his hyperactive scumdar/towndar (good to make sure you don't miss anything) and lending additional weight to posts that trigger my hypoactive scumdar (good to condense into a single action plan).

Pie is pretty obviously town; I have no quarrels with that read. Conflicted on Rancid Broderick Drake. He has a lot of hallmarks of bussing; early vote on the scumbuddy while the active pushes are outside of Yuriko. Notice how Drake is very passionately involved in the non-Yuriko arguements, while hardly mentioning Yuriko, and yet his vote doesn't move off of her all day.

Also, look at all those hot attempts to get off of Yuriko:

Also Jasmine is kkkkkkkk newb maybe? Someone talk to me, I want company until Tel wakes up tonight.

My strong-town list: goldsaucer, pieguy, gb
My nulltown list: bbmolla, quillford (nacho would put Yuriko here too, I think)

YES: Pieguy, you
EH SURE WHY NOT: Saucer, Yuriko(mostly for newbtells and stuff)
NO: demon regfan hydra thing(<3 empire)?

This will prob tighten up over interactions.

bork is showing me up consistently and I feel like reviewing so many games together has given us two a good ebb-flow to it, while Yuriko is only really there for newbtell stuff.

Or trying to get the town-at-large to disarm the wagon:

Yuriko might be town for 102.

What did you like about 102?

-Nati?

And hey, here's a

really

gross thing:

I think Yuriko doing setup spec is unlikely as a normal tree

(she specifically named Arsonists by name

). Hence the Firefighter/Arsonist thoughts and I still stand by it. I think she's probably scum who is scared of the playerlist and hiding behind setup spec.

Underlined: not a bad point at all and not something I was considering when I made my gutshot at her 55 forever ago

-b

I will grant this is a very solid point. Also, I just realized we will all be here, and alive tomorrow. Oh dear.

"I will grant" is ten million percent not the verbiage you use when someone has a scumtell on the person YOU'RE VOTING.

Wow hito, you said conflicted but that case seems kind of one-sided. Well, fundamentally, it's a 2 player scumteam without daytalk to plan a sacrifice play; it's just so, so rough to do a D1 bus. Y'know? But if ever someone was going to bus D1 on this setup, this is what it'd look like. It's pinging metals gut bad and I don't like it either.

Metal, you can vote Drake if you think someone would bus here. I'm still torn from a Bayesian perspective - the fact that this really, really looks like a bus play doesn't change the low prior probability for busing in general.

[Gyre and Gimble]

Metal posted a bunch of quick reactions to the thread through page 20; I skimmed through those and then I bounced through Drake's ISO because I was sniffing out the vote/passion disconnect.

So I've read through a lot of things pertaining to Drake and Yuirko but only in the first ~third of the game for everything else.

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Also, Tammy, please stop stealing my thoughts (#1490)

I'm caught up but I am still in the position where I don't feel like I have much else to say and it's annoying because I feel the need to do SOMETHING but I don't know what. I'm waiting to see what Soft-spoken has to say in response to pieguyn's case and to see what G+G have when they fully catch up with this game (though hito's posts are a nice start).

Nati, have you and Muffin discussed my slot in the recent past?

If you're looking for something to do, you can give me your thoughts on Drake (especially as it pertains to my observations on him) since you have the whole game as context.

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if there is no day chat for scum this gets easier

Do we know if scum have daytalk or not?

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It's 7 am and since catching up on 10 pages takes literally 1 hour I am going to do it on a computer so maybe 12h later when I am home

Also, hito is already divine from what he helped post overnight


Seems like I can be natural in the thread? OK

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tbh hito offered a really fresh new perspective in that long post that I didn't really notice on a larger scale. Like he showed me the forest for the trees WOW (I was only looking at the trees not the forest) and the trees were bad. The forest, was also bad

And I am pretty convinced to get rbd

From hito's case

Even though I only have 20 pages caught up

tl;dr hito highlighted muffina's play that mirrored mine in the nightless re: bus-no-bus

I didn't see it and he didn't post it in the hydra pt and he just posted it here and I'm like WOW

Or maybe it's just 7am and I'm woozy

Whatever

VOTE: rbd

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tbh hito offered a really fresh new perspective in that long post that I didn't really notice on a larger scale. Like he showed me the forest for the trees WOW (I was only looking at the trees not the forest) and the trees were bad. The forest, was also bad

Hello, new sig.

Scum don't have daytalk.

GG I'd really like for you guys to get caught up enough to opine about S-s.

What from s-s are you waiting for us to hit?

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will look at it in detail later but hydra dissonance to protect a partner/push mislynches is a very good scum tactic and I do it often

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Pie guy do you remember doduo playing with their hydra heads and signing to obfuscate how they are being read? You were scum with them and I correctly caught them for it.

I am not thinking this is town behavior

phone posting so nup no catchup

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I don't like it but I'll shut up ;-;

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We are excusing a slot that does an action that I frequently perform and abuse as scum.

OK, I know that they're not me, and I'm not them, and my reasoning was wrong on quilford in twin trap, but I still want to point that out yeah.

It's not about signing -- that's only a minor factor. My point is that they are abusing hydra dissonance to hedge on Yuriko -- one scumreads, and one townreads, so they can swing whatever they want according to the situation.

~sonic

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can you ask me an easier question? You don't expect me to write another wall to add on to the happy pile that is in this game already, do you? Also, they are pretty obviously town so making me explain the obvious is just rather unnatural for me and I am really not sure if making me do this is even alignment indicative

What do you want to know,

specifically?

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i.e not alignment indicative because arguments have already been put forth by others. If I'm scum, I can just regurgitate. And as town you are going to bore me when I can spend that hour catching up on 10 more pages

Hope that clears stuff up

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I was serious about 1421 btw. He posted in caps and stuff . I would instantly townread him if I replaced into any other slot. I was following the game a little bit only but yeah

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regfan you of all people should know that I shit up Mina's game, right?

why would you puke when I posted 1421? Really?

[Gyre and Gimble]

kk basic stuff

pie is evaluating stuff and all his posts look natural. When he is scum his posts will sound fake and forced and I will catch this immediately. He will typically post lesser walls as scum and more as town, because he is afraid that he might slip in that large wall of text. Everything he has done is super stream of consciousness and esp. his pushback on you (crudely I call omgus power) on the first 10 pages made him look more town than you did. You did come off looking town too through conviction and scumhunting but I was in the pieguy camp.


Nachoffery...... Ffery is the easier head to read, though I'm no slouch at nachoscum either. Nacho is better at scum IMO. He will dominate most of the hydra if they rolled scum. Ffery was towning it up and getting reads and opinions on people and interacting and all that in a manner that I don't think she's capable of as scum. She would just sit back and let town destroy themselves.


None of this is based on associative tells. I haven't got to the Yuriko flip yet

[Gyre and Gimble]

Basically pie town is very strong minded and if he gives a shit about the game (clearly he does, who wouldn't?) he will be very aggressive and defend his townreads and pierce his scumreads.

He is slow in doing this only because he needs to be 100% confirmed and committed in his read first. Don't wanna make a wrong choice or wrong move now

wen pie is scum I can see the bulllshit lol. Esp in this player list it will stick out like a sore thumb

[Gyre and Gimble]

regfan you of all people should know that I shit up Mina's game, right? why would you puke when I posted 1421? Really?

Because we were the team that we attempting to pull you out of your Quilford tunnel via the meta-information and we (well I, I can't speak for Empire here) don't think meta is a big indicator that Quilford is town, I find his play here very different to his TM play (He was far less forthcoming his with his reads and reasoning here and much less proactive and questioning people and getting reads to begin with), willing to concede that some of it may be due to him being busy in real life but you coming in with the stance of "I know how to read him now, he's obvtown" when that's not even close to our read on him is ugly but I don't think it's a scum-tell coming from you and it's not something I particular think is worth focusing or discussing to much.

He indeed is busy in real life. I know this because I keep pestering him to hydra but he has <no time sorry maybe in a few months>

Tbh I would give more fucks about this game than team mafia... But that's only because I'm in a hydra with hito and I love all of you. Quil may have had different circumstances I.e team mafia was more important than this game. They were contending for the win after all

[Gyre and Gimble]

regfan you of all people should know that I shit up Mina's game, right? why would you puke when I posted 1421? Really?

Because we were the team that we attempting to pull you out of your Quilford tunnel via the meta-information and we (well I, I can't speak for Empire here) don't think meta is a big indicator that Quilford is town, I find his play here very different to his TM play (He was far less forthcoming his with his reads and reasoning here and much less proactive and questioning people and getting reads to begin with), willing to concede that some of it may be due to him being busy in real life but you coming in with the stance of "I know how to read him now, he's obvtown" when that's not even close to our read on him is ugly but I don't think it's a scum-tell coming from you and it's not something I particular think is worth focusing or discussing to much.

Sir I don't know if it was good or bad, but I replaced into quilford slot. I KNOW he's town

Enough about that. Read me. Or ask me stuff to get a read on me. I want to obvtown this slot up to get it out of the mislynch pool. Like I had to do in that game. Then hope my guess for the scum isn't wrong @_@

[Gyre and Gimble]

back at the computer

catching up begins now

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sorry guys i just got distracted 15 minutes because of youtube related videos



this looks like a cool game


i'll focuss now

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/30

that took long, par for the course

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yeah, 1 hour per 10 pages is how this looks like

to bed i go, catch up 10 more tomorrow

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How I feel about this game

i think quilford-slot is probably the last scum still!

I agree

ho hum hum

no he isn't

Believe in the nocaps.

pls

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Bbmolla it's sonic here

I replaced quilford

I swear on the sanctity of team nocaps that this slot is town

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GB, that's very disrespectful and moderately rude. First, my goal isn't to be "read as town", it is to get a perfect win, stick that in your head. 2, don't tell people to "catch up on the god damn game as fast as possible", I have a life, and it takes me 1 hour to quality scrutinize 10 pages of this game, 3. "Throw your reads, thoughts, and reasoning here" is not going to help you a single bit. I take 1 hour to read, it's going to take longer to write.

Like I said, I can only catch up on the computer. I'm online all the time via phone, which allowed me to make those posts, but fact is they aren't useless, and please don't imply as such.

Thanks.

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ugh, sorry for that reaction but it needs to be said

I was only angry for 3 minutes so peace

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hi im back for some reading action

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/40

whew

i got to the yuriko fakeclaim

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/45

got until day 1.

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thats all for today

i'll watch another episode of the mirror's edge playthough then go to sleep

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i'll consolidate my thoughts and give it to hito and see if he can do the writeup, i hate writeups

i mean

ah

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in short i think rbd is scum. i disagree with pie that 'S-S "fakeable = scum"". rbd has an underlying scum agenda/motivation while S-S looks like he doesnt

i want to bring regfan+empire's attention to rbd's play which resembled zar in my nightless. sit on the weak ass obviously-going-to-die partner, and do no shit until lylo.

yuriko was obviously-going-to-die. odds are that she would be lynched within the 3/4 mislynches necessary to win this game. bussing is optimal here.

and look who rushed to bus

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i mean now

there is a 100% chance that yuriko's scumpartner bussed her

it is just a matter of 'how early'.

i'm going to look quickly at pie's "s-s' = scum argument and see if i can rebut it with day 1 evidence

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The explanation here makes me feel a lot better about the way you were pushing me in the early stages of the game, though. Like, I don't think these are particularly strong points, but I can see why you in particular would think this way given certain things.

so I find this interesting more or less because of these posts from early on D1:

Oh, and just because I wanna be able to point back to this in post-game and brag about my reads.

Calling a Yuriko-Nacho scum team right now.

If that's not the team, this post never happened and no one ever read it.

-Nati

er... Submitted early.

I think you're bullshitting the strength of your pieguy town read.

I would vote you because you haven't done anything particularly town yet and leave it at that.

That would be an even worse angle than your current push, tbh, and I probably would have driven you into the ground if you even tried that.

But yes, your only other real options would be pushing Yuriko (who hasn't really done anything town but you have a very awkward town read on for setup spec which doesn't make a whole lot of sense), Soft-Spoken (for... not posting, I guess?) or bbMolla (even though I don't think you could actually make a case on bbMolla).

-Nati

if zmuffin is scum here, he laid down a bunch of false associatives between Yuriko and sangres, lynched Yuriko D1 as you'd expect, and then ..... forgot about it entirely?

I really don't know if that makes sense especially given this kind of player list where you essentially need as many mislynches as possible in order to make it to endgame. even in a standard player list, I usually don't see scum just give up after laying down interactions with the express purpose of linking ppl towards their partners.

did you seriously think that muffina has the power to overpower nacho now?

i mean

he *can*, but in this circumstance, no. it would make sense to drop it.

[Gyre and Gimble]

even in a standard player list, I usually don't see scum just give up after laying down interactions with the express purpose of linking ppl towards their partners.

um this is not making sense

this is an elite player list

scum giving up after being put into the PoE pool + a really fat ass townblock is perfectly expected,

even if they laid down the lamest associative with 0 justification and 0 reasoning and 0 angle on post 100

[Gyre and Gimble]

what I'm saying there is that, based on 357/364, scum-zmuffin's strategy would have been setting you up as a potential Yuriko partner. so I'm pretty sure that, if he was scum here, he would have been continuing to pushing you as scum and bringing said associatives he pointed out back up in order to lynch you next as opposed to backing off in the way that he did here.

I think he definitely could have made 357 as scum, it's how it ties in to what he did D2 that I don't think makes any sense coming from scum-him (especially in this game).

also, good news: I can read MS 100%, so this might be ez mode.

read: they gave up


also <3

I think BBM + Soft-Spoken/ Gold Saucer is scum.

Soft-Spoken > Gold Saucer in scumminess I think

so I first thought Quil might have been Yuriko's partner because of that half-assed town read she tried to put up on him. I think it might actually be the other way around and those "reads" she had at the end were just half-assed distancing. GS is 100% town, leaving ...

on S-S' side of the coin, his approach to the Yuriko wagon was to treat it like a "policy lynch" - which in retrospect I don't like since there were several people who had legitimate reasons for Yuriko being scum here.

Spoiler: everything s-s said about yuriko

yuriko is a decent policy lynch, but im not seeing any substance in a yuriko push fyi

i mean the whole deal where yuriko seems like she is afraid town will lose because she thinks its scumsided. that was a marginal towntell imo... its just... its hard to defend someone who is so chronically inactive.

i guess im not really the proactive forum player that i thought i was. i was in games that had little to no content and was eager to force things to happen... now i hardly have the energy to post after a 45 minute catch-up session. ill be the counterbalance. when yall run out of steam and your gums stop flappin as much ill fill in the blanks

im not going to pretend like i have any solid reads atm... honestly there is too much going on, and too many talented players... im used to there being a few low hanging fruit types that i can push and and see who sheeps and whatnot... or just make myself look scummy. but this isnt really the game for those antics so ima havta learn to be a more sophisticated player maybe.

If lynching yuriko is one of those things you have to do then go for it. id rather see someone be adventurous and step out on a limb and hard push one of your meta-buddies but the courage to do so seems rather lacking, even among the people who do have legitimate fos's ... maybe lynching yuriko will be the thing that moves this game foreward.

your posts are bearable for the most part. the problem i have with the huge wall posts is the ones where there is no place for my eyes to rest or (subject/content) speed-read

sometimes i even make huge posts but, they are chopped up with subjects, @'s , quotes... ect. when i see a neverending stream of text that is impossible to skim through i just shut down.

my reads are ATM... pie is town. most people are town-leaning (sangres slot recently moved from town to town leaning for me thanks to nachos posting) quil gives me the WTF's but im not sure that qualifies as a scumread. yuriko is begging for a policy lynch. this game is rather unreadable as a whole to me right now.

im done with waiting for yuriko to post. tbh if yuriko is town im gunna have a hard time forgiving her for not replacing out

VOTE: YurikoJasmine now is the time to post anything you possibly can. idc if you arnt caught up.

l-1

Hence my very blunt "She's firefighter or scum" words.

hahah i saw this coming when i saw yurikos claim

and ya to state the obvious here... scum has no reason to cc, and scum has no reason not to claim under duress. no brainer.

usually my worst town performances are in the easiest games so yuriko being scum makes sense on so many levels.

in either case, I don't really have anything I want to do that can't wait until tomorrow.

bbl for real

good point. selfhammers suk

UNVOTE:

i just did the math and its actually CCing the FF and winning the cc is not a bad position for scum to be in if molla was scum and quil wasnt.


but thats just paranoia speaking.


yuriko is coming out with some rather strange fos's (me/gold) that arnt substantiated.

in fact yuriko was right from the getgo... this is a rather scumsided setup.

its going to give me a stroke trying to explain it all, but i dont think thats necessary.

maybe not overall scumsided... lets say swingy. if town has unlynchables, scum has perfect priming targets and wont misplay any night whatsoever... especially with FF dead... sp basically if yuriko is town and we lynch her its a 4v1 with no clears mechanically d3

in other words. we have 1 mislynch and no claimable roles unless mafia primes someone who is later lynched.

yuriko if you are town you really need to try harder here. you WILL be hammered 99%

in general, he didn't *really* commit to a read either way on her and tried to claim it as a policy-ish vote for her continuing to stall out content. I think there is scum motivation here in that he didn't want to look too bad if Yuriko actually got lynched, but wanted to hold out as long as he could if the momentum swung a different way and he could lynch someone else instead. in hindsight, it's fairly different from what, for instance, GB did (committed to a firm stance, laid out play-based reasons for it, and stuck with it the whole way through).

he voted Yuriko really late, which makes sense if he wasn't seeing the scum reads on her based on her play. but I think it'd be fairly typical for scum to bus in that position.

the last sentence 1079 kind of reads like overjustification. from a town POV, I think it was really obvious Yuriko was scum here, and it was also obvious that her last-minute "reads" were really awful. what he did feels somewhat like scum being overly cautious about their interactions with a partner - like they think it's a good thing to point out, when in fact what they're saying is in actuality silly/pointless for town to say. I think it's more likely that town would just leave it out entirely or say something along the lines of "yep, Yuriko's reads are worthless".

I need to go back and figure out what/if S-S had anything to say about RBD/GB's Yuriko pushes.

@S-S:

what, if anything, did you make of GB's 862 when they posted it?

everything you said here applies to muffina in the pre-prototype-not-actually-a-case that hito posted -______-

hydra dissonance to avoid giving a legit stand on the scumpartner
nati's "lol newb" "lol newb town" "im townreading her LOL"

I'm currently reading the entire game again (focusing on S-S' posts in context) and am up to p25.

honestly, compared to everything else in the game, I think most of what S-S has done so far has been relatively fakeable. the only really blindingly town thing so far has been the arsonist townslip, but I don't think that's unfakeable at all anymore. I think that if he's scum here, he likely planned it out pregame, which would also account for specifically how it played out. I still agree with zmuffin's assessment that it didn't really come off as forced, but I'm not going to write it off as town bc of that especially coming from someone who's apparently capable of faking shit like that.

I don't know if he straight up admits "I can fake this as scum" after the fact as scum unless he had reason to believe there'd be someone who'd call him out on it, but if he would have invented such an unorthodox strategy to begin with, it doesn't seem unreasonable.

I'd like if someone could tell me if I'm just being dumb or not.

what has muffina posted that has not been fakeable?/

I actually managed to get to the end of D1 and wound up with an entirely unreadable post that I haven't filtered in any way whatsoever. tl;dr is that I'm actually really concerned with how S-S played this: I'm seeing a lot of poking at alternate targets to Yuriko (RBD, sangres), while ignoring the majority of the Yuriko-related discussion that happened. the point where he decided to vote Yuriko (958 ~ 959) came immediately after GB's 956 where he essentially said he was voting Yuriko, which was about the point where it became obvious ppl weren't going to tolerate Yuriko stalling for content and would likely lynch her - if that was what his strategy was, it makes a lot of sense that he'd give up and bus her at that point when it was obvious it wasn't getting anywhere. the reasoning behind said pushes were him sheeping sangres on RBD and in general not making sense of any of Nacho's posts, which once you get down to it is pretty weak.

this might make sense if he legitimately just didn't see anything beyond "policy" for Yuriko being scum. but the thing is, there was stuff like Regfan specifically disagreeing with the initial town read he put up (657), and a *lot* of points where people put up legitimate non-policy reasons for Yuriko being scum, and he *still* didn't seem to notice any of it

Yuriko's 1089 was interesting. GS, GB, and S-S had all posted saying they scum read her but S-S was the only one she questioned - as if she was specifically going out of her way to interact with him. compare to 1064 re: GS' scum read on her which accomplishes basically nothing whatsoever. this could also just be because she had him as her top "scum read".

his play this game day also passes the "makes sense coming from scum" test in that I haven't actually seen him do anything, and when he did, he didn't really commit to any firm reads and instead left a lot of options open for scum reads

someone please please please tell me I'm just being ridiculously dumb here, bc the more I look at this the more sense I think it makes - and I really don't know if Quil's recent play makes sense coming from scum

sounds like conf bias to me

i refer to you

if i were scum, i would coat my partner as "newb lynch" rather than "policy lynch"
___

that was it

[Gyre and Gimble]

I don't think it means anything that he didn't really do anything to "push" Yuriko. Yuriko hardly did anything at all this game. her initial posts were all setup spec and she didn't start doing anything substantive at all until very late in the game day. therefore, it makes sense he'd spend an amount of time pushing her proportional to the amount of posts she actually made. he spent the majority of his time commenting about the non-Yuriko arguments because they were a significantly larger part of the game than the posts Yuriko made and Yuriko had done fuck all for the majority of the game.

tbh

i dont see how any legit town player can scumread and catch yuriko correctly at post 100 something.

or 300 something. yuriko had only a few posts. whatever

plus, Yuriko really wasn't a point of contention in that the majority of the game agreed she was scum. on the other hand you had, for instance, Nacho and GB both feeling really really strongly that I was town/scum, respectively. there was no need to be "passionately involved" in pushing Yuriko because hardly anyone saw a need to discuss it anyway; there was, on the other hand, a need to be involved in the non-Yuriko arguments because it was a major point of contention for the majority of the game day.

nah it just looked like a really half-assed bus attempt.

overall, the impression I got from how they played this was that Yuriko was primarily zmuffin's read. there was a huge amount of dissonance in between zmuffin and Nati basically this entire game. all 3 of these posts were Nati's posts and they never really had a chance to sync. I don't think there was any explicit scum motivation here, I think this was just her either having a conflicting read as town or faking a read that went opposite zmuffin's read as scum and playing accordingly.

muffina didn't actually explain his 'read'

just for you i'll check bby~

-----

oh, he did. he thought she was "scum" at post 100. when she had only 2 posts. made up some (your pet phrase) fake-able reasoning, and stayed on her forever
that is not town behavior




in fact, thats pretty fucking bad

lol

I also think if he was scum here he was just trying to emulate this as opposed to doing what you're saying here (i.e. he's either town or scum faking it). I don't think it was him searching for an excuse to get off the wagon or anything like that, I think it was more aimed to discern my alignment.

have you fought muffina scum before? because you are making an assumption.

in general, I think there's alternate motivations for most of what you're pointing out here that make as much sense with RBD-town as RBD-scum. I think in particular you're getting confused on the dynamics of their hydra and/or holding them to higher standards than I would with hydra dissonance. either way I don't agree their interactions look like scum/scum.

i've just pointed out alternative motivations that hito didnt point out, because i read more the thread

i'll talk to him more and discuss stuff



stronger scumread on muffina now

[Gyre and Gimble]

i actually took 30 minutes to do this not-case-case thing

wow

thats slow

time consuming

i'll pump stuff into the pt then good night

i dont think i can even watch another episode

maybe tomorrow

[Gyre and Gimble]

yeah

i took 1 hour to write stuff in prose too

gosh


im going to bed. more next time. counting on hito

[Gyre and Gimble]

it looked at the walls and it speeded away

[Gyre and Gimble]

I still don't understand why you re townreading muffina. All I can see is that "muffina is town because too scummy to be scum"

But you are scumreading S-S because "not townie enough to be town"

please correct me if these super abridged translations are wrong

[Gyre and Gimble]

btw I'm townreading S-S because of other stuff, I didn't care about the "townslip"

[Gyre and Gimble]

I don't have a lot of time but some quick thoughts.

Three townreads Metal and I have in common are pie, sangres, saucer.

Saucer in particular has a post that reads very un-bussy:

yuriko is a decent policy lynch, but im not seeing any substance in a yuriko push fyi

It's not really a policy kynch from my point of view. I'm having a really hard time believing there's two scum outside of yuko and I don't feel great about a scum read on anyone in the eight.

If she is town, I have some serious rethinking to do about the people in this game because other than paranoia dream teams, Im coming up short.

From the position of reading the game post Yuriko-flip, we do indeed know that PoE is absolutely

annihilating

whoever the poor remaining scumbag is. This isn't a post that comes from Saucer scum, because it's not only encouraging the scum vote, it's encouraging the scum vote by route of

actively discouraging any other wagons

. (Contrast with RBD voting Yuriko while actively promoting alternate wagons.)

As for Pie's thing on RBD, actually BBMolla said it pretty well:

I would expect that if he was scum here he'd have to put a hell of a lot more effort into this than just a throwaway comment after not mentioning anything about it at all before, but it's still possible. attempting to link a town player to your scum partner by pointing out associatives in advance is a fairly common scum strategy.

I don't see why him not doing some specific scummy thing makes him town.

In particular, it makes a lot of sense in this game especially to not make a play like that d2. If scum get a mislynch today, that mislynch target is still going to stay alive and talk. What incentive does RBD-scum have to burn sangres now? Even if RBD was explicitly setting up that associative trap, today would be a silly day to burn it. You need to save that trump card for a later day when the lynch is going to be badly directed - not on D2 when, as RBD, you're sitting quite comfortably.

Every doused target is a lynch landmine - the scum is going to want a lot more control of the lynch on later days.

In fact, let's expand on that. I was going to play that tell close to the vest, so we'd have the trick available on later days but I'll just cash it out now because Metal wants the perfect win (I personally am a win-con absolutist, but I console myself by saying that keeping his dreams alive is a bigger gain than the loss incurred)

Scum have a curious subgame to play here where they have to guess the most universal townreads, douse them, and then

keep them alive

. This gives us an additional avenue to catch scum, because even though the scum is now alone, they're going to be forming 1-way associative tells with their douse targets. Every douse target lynched is a tempo hit for a scum that desperately needs to go for a clean sweep boom in this field of townreads.

So, one potential gambit town can try is to try to sniff out the universal townread and go nuts on them for no reason, and try to catch the scum from their panicked resistance. But look at what S-S posted:

also, we should lynch quil today to get that out of the way. i have a nagging feeling that i was doused by quil and thus the sudden change from me being top tier towny from being top tier scummy. pushing on someone you doused is a waste of a douse... and i was near conf town from everyones perspective but quils + i tried to subtly encourage BBmolla to self his ability

If I'm S-S scum, I quite doubt that I point out that you can catch scum by looking for sudden defenses on people they were previously not townreading. I think I bury that deep and hope no one thinks to hunt for that. That's my main reason to think S-S is town - Metal likes a lot of his off-the-cuff posting that I personally think is more null. Metal's also a fan of some of S-S's Yuriko interactions, e.g

yuriko if you are town you really need to try harder here. you WILL be hammered 99%

Which I don't feel is as strong as a town-tell as Metal, but it is a good post in hindsight - I think scum in general are very sensitive to making vapid posts about their scumbuddies.

It also helps that I'm feeling better about the roughness of the Yuriko bus. Metal left me some thoughts in the PT and he makes a good case that RBD decided from the word go that Yuriko was going to die at some point (probably inspired by either a total lack of pregame talk or pregame talk that left him very pessimistic) and just came in willing to make that play. I've had scum games where someone triggered one of my prime scumtells out of the gate and I just bussed them totally. FTL was the last one.

I feel like there was a question aimed at me about hydra dissonance or something but I can't find it, someone quote it if it's a real thing and not a random fever dream of mine. Also I tried to find it in GB's ISO and looking at those timestamps, GB's pretty much gotta be town as well - way too much posting for Empire/Regfan scum, imo.

tl;dr sangres, pie, saucer town. s-s has a lot of townish factors pointing at him. the point about RBD not voting sangres is meaningless, it's still probably just him. GB gets an effort townread.

[Gyre and Gimble]

:/
If you are saying that I am wrong then you should show me where

my points

hito's

our points are wrong

right now you are just telling me that rbd has "no scum motivation*" which is p weak because it still leaves him open to PoE

*that you can see

[Gyre and Gimble]

that said, We're not done with the full catchup yet and maybe I'll see where you're coming from if your read comes from the last 20 pages

[Gyre and Gimble]

I have seen 817 btw and not only do I disagree with it, I also think it needs to be updated with recent stuff because it was made before the Yuriko flip

[Gyre and Gimble]

kk sure later

[Gyre and Gimble]

him looking like he's "given up" isn't a good reason for scum reading him

him not elaborating on his Yuriko read was incorrect

I didn't see anything else besides that outside of him bussing Yuriko? if there was, link/remind me what it was plz.

lol, I'm not scumreading him for "given up", where did you read that

I am using "giving up" to explain why he isn't pursuing sangres gung ho style, hence, your reason for townreading him for that is incorrect

[Gyre and Gimble]

He did explain his Yuriko read... I mentioned it in my post. I just think it's bullshit. My point was that he couldn't have caught Yuriko scum correctly at post 100 without internal information. At lest I remember writing that @_@

[Gyre and Gimble]

my posts are very misreadable

[Gyre and Gimble]

Phone post

a) scum have no reason to do this. If s-s was scum and knew that Yuriko was going down (let's face it, at that point of the game she was going down 100%) it would be beneficial to bus. This is an example of "too scummy to be scum" that I will buy.
b) not sure about this, but I clearly recall S-S initiating the conversation and Yuriko replying, as if to a townie "how did you catch me?" Note that she never interacted with muffina at all, I don't think so. No, commenting on a stupid pgo claim doesn't count
c) I'll look at that later. Muffina isn't providing any content either from what little I've read


Muffina putting a vote on Yuriko on post 100 (page 5) and not voting any other person at all at any point in the game (including day 2) is fucking unnatural. see my analogy re: nightless and zar

[Gyre and Gimble]

You have been scumhunting pie for quite a large portion of the game and have made waves. What has muffinslot done?

[Gyre and Gimble]

A) pie guy's reason for townreading muffina is "he would be doing more to push sangres and not lie down like that" + "no scum motivation" which is essentially a "too scummy to be scum" argument too

a) reasons + suspicion for S-S just only appeared today, so I haven't got to it yet, rest assured I'll take a look at it

In due time... Maybe I can finish this thing by tonight, we'll see

[Gyre and Gimble]

You have been scumhunting pie for quite a large portion of the game and have made waves. What has muffinslot done?

Answered this?

[Gyre and Gimble]

back on the com, beginning catchup...


btw im hooked on the mirror's edge playthrough. looks like i'll be watching that instead of anikme

[Gyre and Gimble]

/50

that's 23 minutes according to sonic

[Gyre and Gimble]

/60

im done

[Gyre and Gimble]

40 mins or so

[Gyre and Gimble]

Fairly confident Quil is playing to his scum meta btw

read day 1... that is quil's town meta

his day 2 posts were shite but i don't blame you. day 1 was quil town

look at this:

Spoiler: cherrypick obvtown quil posts

My name is Broderick Drake and some people have described me as a rancid fellow. I am just popping in to inform you that

we are a PGO

- whether or not you choose to believe us is up to you (I cannot think of a reason we would lie about this, though), but you have been warned, so don't target us!

????

I read it as town-ish because I can imagine that being something Town!Quilford would contemplate (especially with by absence from the thread despite being online elsewhere at the time, something he was aware of)

This isn't something I was aware of actually! But I'll take your townpoints anyway. Om nom nom

I'm worried that people will be swayed by his influence as a player and wind up scum reading me for poor/incorrect reasons as a result.

gotta say, really don't like this one bit. don't think anyone in this playerlist would be swayed by regfan's 'influence' (largely because they're all pretty competent themselves)

I do think people getting on my back about halting my Soft push are conspiracy theorising. Uh no, I think all my early points are valid, I think the slip is eminently fakeable (and am definitely going to look into it more when I'm not on my phone) and I don't like Soft's reaction to whomever posted that he likes making scummy entrances for the purposes of getting people's reactions (again will elaborate later). I still don't think he's scumhunted at all and I think the reasoning he gave for his townreads was weak.

Thinking my sigh was me not being able to conceal my irritation that another mislynch had escaped me is hilariously stupid. In actuality, it was because I was worried about adding another townread to an already large pile.

Starting to get a bit wary of GB.

I think all my early points are valid

not even remotely valid tbh. i can see why someone could perceive it that way if they thought poorly constructed posts were scummy.

How about if they thought posts that contained a sum total of fuck all were scummy?

*Quil's inner monologue*

Wow. Apparently if I had unvoted at the time, I would be looking a lot more town now! Damn, will have to remember not to make that mistake again in future scum games

Soft, I want you to explain the "Most legitimate scum-tells are invalid in this setup" stance from Post 367, run me through what scum-tells exactly are invalidated due to the setup and why that's the case.

Speaking of tells, did you ever do this?

A

Starting to get a bit wary of GB.

Want this explained in detail please - think you've seen both Empire/myself as scum/town enough to know that we're town here.

You've seem me as scum/town enough to know that I'm town here, hasn't stopped you from having doubts has it?

Also zMuff I deffos remember you reading me with laser precision in Amrun's Otters vs Tigers vs Sharks Mafia and in a Kise (I think) game that was similar to Triplicate Mafia in setup but had a video game theme iirc

I'm still trying to figure out what I make of Quil vs. S-S.

I agree with most of what S-S is posting. if he was "try hard scum", as Quil is saying, then it would make more sense that he would actually read the whole game, or pull up more than 3 quotes, or do anything that actually ... you know, requires trying hard. 605 also completely misses S-S' point (that Quil conveniently dropped that S-S' posts were "genuine" after he got accused of it being disingenuous), which I also agree with.

I also hate Quil's insistence that S-S is "agreeing" with him in 613. it's pretty obvious what S-S is saying there is that if he was scum he'd try to make a more effortful post than the one he made *in this game*; not that he'd try to make more effortful posts in general.

on the other hand, I disagree that Quil-town would need to unvote S-S at the point where he thought S-S was genuine. you'll notice my vote is still on GB despite reading them as town (lol). most of the time, if I don't have someone I feel strongly that I want to push/lynch, I don't care about where my vote is. if I scum read him, it wouldn't be for this.

@Quil:

when did you supposedly "reread" S-S and why did you not mention it when you did so (since I don't remember you posting anything along the lines of "I looked at S-S again, I think I was wrong" until right at this point. correct me if I'm wrong)? also would like to know your thoughts on what I said in the 3rd paragraph here.

I'm continually rereading players. Especially when I start to get a sense that they could be scum, I'll go through their ISOs and look at their posts in context whenever I have a spare minute. I do remember rereading between #533 and #581 because I remember feeling like I had been disarmed by his posts around #529, #532 etc.

I think perhaps a lot of the problem here is that I've been using the word 'tryhard' to mean something that other people aren't quite picking up on. When I called Soft's first non two-sentence post 'tryhard' I meant that it contained no useful analysis and therefore looked like it had been posted for the sake of appearing active, engaged and therefore town.

Re your third paragraph, I didn't pick up on that interpretation of Soft's words at all. I thought he was repeating what I had said back at me in order to try and make a point about circularity.

I do think people getting on my back about halting my Soft push are conspiracy theorising. Uh no, I think all my early points are valid, I think the slip is eminently fakeable (and am definitely going to look into it more when I'm not on my phone) and I don't like Soft's reaction to whomever posted that he likes making scummy entrances for the purposes of getting people's reactions (again will elaborate later). I still don't think he's scumhunted at all and I think the reasoning he gave for his townreads was weak.

Thinking my sigh was me not being able to conceal my irritation that another mislynch had escaped me is hilariously stupid. In actuality, it was because I was worried about adding another townread to an already large pile.

Starting to get a bit wary of GB.

In what regard?

-b

I didn't really like that he was content to give Soft townpoints based on the slip and EM meta (which as he's said cuts both ways, because apparently Soft on EM is quite capable of faking slips) despite Soft's scumhunting still being all but nonexistent... didn't really strike me as a Regfan thing to do. The EM meta discussion also had a softbuddying edge to it as well imo.

Still consider GB town on the whole though.

Why would scum even bother to make a post that contains shit all if they didn't think they would get points for at least looking like they were doing something? Especially valid in your case considering it was already a couple pages in and it was your first post of the game that wouldn't be longer than two sentences or something.

You're begging the question here by assuming that he's scum and then attributing motivation here
Unless you think 'tryharding' (which feels just like a loaded phrase) is a thing that only scum would do?
Or that "posting a post" is some sort of tell because that's all you really seem to accuse him of doing here

I don't know this whole thing presupposes SS is scum and I don't understand why you're doing that

-b

It doesn't actually presuppose anything of the sort? I hope my explanation above of what I was trying to convey by use of the word 'tryhard' clears up your confusion.

I certainly do; I still have no real idea where where your thoughts are on a lot of the players in the game other then "Townish!", there's not a huge amount of detailed explanations behind reads listed and the larger parts of when you do touch on it is after I've pushed you for stances which is a huge problem I'm having with you. Also you wanted someone to be online at the same time as you, I popped on but there's not much you seem to want to discuss, I'm around for the next hour if you're still interested in discussing reads, tomorrow night works for me too.

Please. You haven't had to push me for stances, you've had to ask me for them. You certainly haven't had to be 'dragging them out' of me, as you originally said—that implies some sort of resistance on my end. Prompting people for their thoughts happens in Mafia games literally all the time.

My biggest problem, and it's one that others are having too, is that it's really hard to get a read off of people who seem to be doing a lot of scumhunting with the aid of meta. As my scumhunting style depends massively on the analysis of rhetoric and semantics, I'm often at a loss when looking at these large meta walls because I'm not familiar with players' histories and thus ill-equipped to judge the conviction and genuineness of the cases being made. Yes, I know I'm making excuses. I think they're pretty good ones tho.

I originally asked, what, six hours ago? Since then I've been dealing with study, dinner and

The Killing Season

. If you want to shoot me a couple questions now go for it.

these 2 mainly, or you can click that spoiler for a damned quote wall

[Gyre and Gimble]

in fact,

VOTE: S-S

I think basically everyone in this game has done a bunch of shit that's borderline unfakeable. go back and read S-S' posts. they all are pretty town, sure, but in terms of things that are absolutely-certainly coming from town? there's nothing there except possibly the town slip from the start and both heads of GB said that was fakeable coming from him.

if you disagree, comment on why I'm incorrect to town read RBD for adopting a strategy that doesn't make sense as scum. or why I'm wrong that it's really dumb for Quil to replace out as scum in this position. or why what I'm saying here about S-S' interactions with Yuriko doesn't make sense, or why you're reading them as town. or DO ANYTHING.

you are incorrect to townread RBD for adopting a strategy that doesn't make sense as scum. THATS THE WAY IT IS. the reasoning is already wonky

plus, RBD has a strategy that i don't think you're picking up? no, pushing sangres wasnt the strategy, try again. the strategy is to *just fucking survive*. survive the bulletstorm, survive the lynches, and nuke them all at once. don't make waves, stay inconspicuous, don't make shitty pushes that will come back to bite you once your target becomes an undead treestump.

as i said, my theory is that he planned to bus pre-game. yuriko probably was like "hi sweet partner, how are you! its my first game as scum, and i don't know what to do ;-; I hope you can please guide me! <3" and muffina probably went " bye *pushes her off the building*"

his vote on yuriko stuck since page 5 and never moved. there is no attempt to scumhunt in his ISO. no attempt to push or interact with people to get a+ townreads. i want you to show me a game where a player moves his vote only once a day (and days are 45 pages long) with this number of posts and doesnt flip fucking scum, lol. its obviously a hard ass buss because that's the only way the game goes

every single one of you had S-S as "town" or "100% town" until pie posted his case so i'm a bit irritated with GB's pokes. nonetheless, i don't think any player has adequately explained muffina town or anything that shows him scumhunting, engaged in the game, or whatever. in fact, he looks like he's ready to quit


GB's method of finding ubertown posts are good

i've found ubertown posts for every player here, included quilford, which i posted above. except muffina.

ok, S-S *may* be fooling me, and maybe my scumdar sucks or whatever, but im betting on muffina

[Gyre and Gimble]

I actually read Muffins Post 1430 as town, won't elaborate on it just yet, want to talk with Empire and see if he picks what I'm reading town about it otherwise I'm worried he's just going to agree with me (It's probably the largest issue I've had with this game, I feel like my reads and thoughts are too influential on him).

this is really strange, because i picked up 1430 and read it as really bad

the entirety of the post is useless and doesn't contribute to the gamestate. i wrote in my hydra pt ":uselessposting:". the first paragraph is a prodge excuse, second paragraph is *lol i have no reads everyone maybe town* in a paragraph. 3rd paragraph, also useless


what does Empire say about it?

[Gyre and Gimble]

I maintain that if RBD is scum here they had what was potentially a free mislynch basically lined up already and then chose not to follow through with it for no apparent reason.

i wrote about this. what is the long-term plan for your theory? muffina lynches sangres, who flips town... then what? let's not forget sangres's conftown dead soul haunting the thread... and seeing that gobshite push from muffina, that would probably end badly. he needs 3 mislynches. that's only one.

so the plan isn't to go for sangres from the get go. your reasoning is incorrect

[Gyre and Gimble]

ok time to go play a game of smite then pack my bag for school then go to bed

ask me any questions, im fully caught up, expect a nice sweet tasty nuke from hito coming soon

[Gyre and Gimble]

Hey look, I found buried treasure in the RBD ISO:

I gotta tell you, being scum in this game would probably literally depress me

Having to deal with confirmed town nacho/regfan/ffery/empire/muffin/tammy etc. talking the entire game while I'm scum (depending on who my buddy would be obv)

like I'd just fucking quit

I'd take solace in the fact they'd lynch the people not in our clique like we do every game first, lol.

Yuriko bus grows less surprising the more I look at it.

Pie:

Let's take the time to put your thoughts on RBD together. So you figure that one half of RBD locks on to Yuriko instantly, and that their two sentence thought about why YJ is scum was enough for them to feel totally done with pushing the issue (even though their very next paragrpah implies their read is turing back with "I'm ambivalent, want to see non-setup related thoughts.). Then, the other hydra head doesn't agree with the evaluation of YJ scum and pushes out elsewhere while continually pointing out "I think YJ's stuff are just newbtells." The hydra head who thinks YJ is scum could still put the vote in play elsewhere to appease their buddy, while seeing how YJ plays without the pressure. Or they could post additional justification for a YJ wagon in thread. Or they could sync up with their buddy until their reads are the same. But they do

none

of these things. Instead, their vote stays right the heck on YJ - who holds to their page 5 vote the entire day when they post 100 times?

For illustrative purposes, here are my d1 votes from my last completed game, Papers Please:

Spoiler: D1 town vote mobility

I wonder if Equi does VC ghosts.

Unvote

Vote: Dinare

Because that looks like an infinitive ending, but dinar isn't a verb at all. Pretty suspicious.

that otolia post is kinda gross. no random vote or nuthin. Like he's already scared there's content he's gotta fake so he gives what essentially feels like a prod dodge post in a game where nothing's happened.

Unvote, Vote: Otolia

Otalia is probably still scum but I want to see what his posts look like as we keep on truckin'.

Unvote, Vote: Kop

I wanted to wait for Wrong Song to answer me before thinking of vote swappin' because I think the answer would be a bit more useful if I wasn't voting him, but my heart is telling me Wrong Song and I'm pretty sick of waiting to be honest

Unvote, Vote: Wrong Song

hito, who would you rather lynch out of PB/elusive?

ooh this is a good question. I think elusive actually is putting me off more with recent posts but PB is more realistic. PB has the vanilla claim also, which makes him a bit safer I guess.

yah I want elusive, PB is more consolation prize flavored.

unvote, vote: elusive

THAT BEING SAID. out of game stuff is always annoying and tunes out scumdars, and in those situations I like to step back a bit and see what happens when the person involved re-normalizes. even though I think elusive has been playing pretty scum motivated, after a big old throwdown like that, it throws a bunch of noise in trying to interpret her latest stuff.
anyway. CO claimed confirmable so his wagon is off the table today. let's just lynch kop.

Unvote, Vote: kop

wheeee

Now yeah obviously RBD isn't the same player as me, but seriously. They have even more reason to either continually re-justify the vote or to have a fluid vote, because, if they're town, they know that there's a confirmed alignment player who doesn't agree with them. Instead, in a day nearly twice as long as the one in my spoiler block, they sit on that YJ vote until judgement day.

And I mean,

shit

, look at their fucking walls like 316 and 658. When they wrote those walls, their vote was on YJ because "I kinda didn't like that early post, and they haven't caught up since then." What an absurd disconnect. But it makes a lot of sense if you're trying to lay groundwork for mislynches while making sure that YJ doesn't get lynched without you on her wagon.

[Gyre and Gimble]

Yuriko bus grows less surprising the more I look at it.

even i didn't understand what you saw in 478... mind explaining ?

[Gyre and Gimble]

... oh I see

rbd was speaking from his heart. he's taking solace because he is scum. or that's what i interpreted, lol.

[Gyre and Gimble]

Let me just condense this down to the essential crisis.

Scum knows how YJ is flipping.

Which one of these D1 voting histories seems more like a YJ sucmbuddy?

Option A

Okay.

VOTE: Soft-spoken

Okay.

VOTE: Quilford

since nobody is jumping on quill with me atm

VOTE: Rancid Broderick Drake

oh and the person im voting? i was sheeping a slot i townread... they have since unvoted and are less town to me than they were when i sheeped so

UNVOTE:

VOTE: YurikoJasmine now is the time to post anything you possibly can. idc if you arnt caught up.

in either case, I don't really have anything I want to do that can't wait until tomorrow.

bbl for real

good point. selfhammers suk

UNVOTE:

Option B

Actually, Yuriko could be scum. Golden Shower might be town. Gentlemen maybe town.

Vote: Yuriko

-Nati

Yuriko bus grows less surprising the more I look at it.

even i didn't understand what you saw in 478... mind explaining ?

RBD thinks the game will probably start by lynching out-clique. If you think YJ is going to be lynched regardless of how she plays and she's your scumbuddy, you definitely have bussing on the mind. You were trying to guess what happened pregame to make RBD decide right away to lock on the bus, but we have it straight from the horses mouth that the player list itself would make him want to bus, regardless of how Yuriko plays.

[Gyre and Gimble]

I mean, there are two days and some change left until deadline and you're already voting Rancid Brodrick Drake (nice!). Let's just lynch RBD and then probably the game is over and we don't need to worry about it.

And if anyone disagrees, show up right the heck now and let's hash it out. Them's the options. I'm feeling pugilant and happy to throw myself into an argument and vote someone else if I'm convinced. But if people want to play that "wait and see" game all the way to deadline you have to just sheep Metal and me cause we're the ones showing up hard.

Metal did a great job catching up but now I am turning on hito mode and today's lynch is the lynch that we pick. Which is RBD unless someone gives a shit enough to turn us around.

[Gyre and Gimble]

it is just as likely, for instance, that Nati just didn't give a shit bc she was letting zmuffin control the vote - that kind of mindset (letting one person have control of the vote) I think is fairly common in hydras. I also think that all of zmuffin's scum reads outside of Yuriko were fairly ambivalent - with me you had "don't like how she played this but there's a few posts I really don't think she's capable of", with sangres I don't think he ever really nailed down that read - so I still don't see why him not moving his vote off Yuriko throughout all this means anything.

That's the problem, though - why not use the vote where the action is? Why engage solely on ambiguous reads and glean nothing from it?

If Yuriko was being lynched solely on policy, then it would make much more sense for that vote to move out and only circle on to Yuriko near EOD. If Yuriko was being lynched on reads - it implies that they're throwing down these massive walls they care so much about, yet simultaneously find less relevant than the couple of posts Yuriko said at the beginning.

Yes, Yuriko never really posted in that middle stretch. So how on earth were those couple of posts of idle setup spec the only points worth using the vote to pressure, in a game where RBD was so heavily invested?

To put it another way - if RBD only had 20 posts day 1 I would be a lot more in line with you. But go and read some of those wall posts, and then mentally append them with "but idle setup speculation from Yuriko is still the lead I want to pursue, as it was the scummiest thing to happen this game", and tell me how coherent those posts seem.

Here's a funny one:

You (and nacho) seem to be suggesting that my post #119, before anything had even taken place (as in, before GB had even seen your #112 and responded to it) is bad because I "took a side". And since you're now also pushing this line of reasoning, I'm just going to nip this awful shit in the bud.

There was no fucking argument to take sides on.

I commented on your god-awful push because that's what it was; a god-awful push. In the first place, if you thought pushing Yuriko was scummy, then you should have been attacking other players who also thought this (like, oh, I don't know, the person voting her?) and if you thought his bork read was scummy, then you should have also been attacking anyone else who formed the same read. But you didn't mention them, and went straight for an argument with the person voting you because... they mentioned that you'd been posting elsewhere, even though that clearly wasn't the primary reason they were voting you.

But ignoring that and the other issues I had with your initial push on gentlemen, you (and nacho) seem to be either mixing up or misrepresenting the sequence of events. gentlemen hadn't responded. I didn't comment on the strength of gentlemen's at the time non-existent arguments against you because, surprise fucking surprise, it was non-existent (as was the second point you made against him in this post). I commented on your post and your post alone. Conflating this with what I did in bork's IN is just dumb (and, by the way, you've actually used against me as scum before, so if I were scum and you were town, I'd know you know about it and avoid anything that could be perceived as similar like the fucking plague).

So nacho's dumb argument that bork's take on it was town for looking at both sides of the argument and criticising both sides and I'm scum because I only attacked pieguy is fucking dumb, and part of why I think nacho's bullshitting his read on me. At some point he also suggested instead that I was egging gentlemen on or something, but that's just as bad an argument because (a) IF #112 is as town as nacho is suggesting it is, then gentlemen might have seen that too and what I said about it wouldn't have influenced their opinion on it (like it apparently didn't influence sangres's opinion on it, but oh, I might have influenced gentlemen because they're pure shit at the game or something), and (b) I didn't need to do anything as scum there if an argument was inevitably going to break out (I could have, for example, just refrained from commenting on it, which is probably what I would have done if I actually were scum - at least until an argument was actually happening) - nothing I said there could have possibly influenced anyone's opinion on that post.

You suggesting this is similar to me taking sides in an argument in that bork-game is equally dumb because (a) even if it were, taking sides is part of mafia anyway (and it's not like you've never seen me do that as town), but (b) there were no sides to take on the 1v1 because

there was no 1v1

.

But idle setup speculation from Yuriko is still the lead I want to pursue, as it was the scummiest thing to happen this game.

[Gyre and Gimble]

Trivia corner: Suppose you think Yuriko and sangres are the scumteam. If you could have either one as a confirmed town treesstump in the event you were wrong, which one would you pick?

[Gyre and Gimble]

Like damn I can't believe I didn't think of that before. Metal did you think of it and I missed it?

Oh, and just because I wanna be able to point back to this in post-game and brag about my reads.

Calling a Yuriko-Nacho scum team right now.

If that's not the team, this post never happened and no one ever read it.

-Nati

One million percent this should be a sangres vote (probably even before this but this is just an easy one to find in ISO). They're the one around to respond to your suspicion who could potentially come off better or worse, and they're the ones you want as stumps if you're wrong.

Anyway I'll stop spam posting and go to sleep, that one just literally occurred to me in a flash - I posted the bigger post, went to get a snack before bed, and it hit me out of nowhere.

[Gyre and Gimble]

nope, didn't think of that

hito is awesome

[Gyre and Gimble]

I DID think of that^

my point exactly

[Gyre and Gimble]

time to lay down the ham

Unless we're waiting for something

[Gyre and Gimble]

I am hungry

this is one of the times I don't want to look at pieguy

nom

[Gyre and Gimble]

on topic: not seeing scumgame =\= town

son-ic tzu's words of wisdom: sometimes the obvious scum is just scum

[Gyre and Gimble]

btw im perfectly ok with delaying the hammer for selfish reasons. if RBD is scum its going to delay the game to be unnecessarily long, if RBD is town, it will make for a stale couple of days in the game.... on the other hand id like to be able to have a chance at actually participating to my fullest if that is the case... which may be possible in about 6 days

I don't understand what this post means

Deadline is in 36 hours

[Gyre and Gimble]

if rbd is scum then we win lol

there is no delay

[Gyre and Gimble]

lol

Now we can go about our merry lives until the mod announces the flip and either rejoice or be very sad