Newbie 1625: American Spring - Day 5 (DL - 08/31)

[Thespio]

wow that^ was confuzzling.. basically BBT is inno right now for me.

[Akuseru]

Yeah, it's confusing. I should probably drop the idea for now. With two scum alive I doubt Micc was targeting them rather than a townie.


VOTE: Joram


That should be L-1

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 3.2

Irresistable

Here's Donald Trump's Cellphone Number. No, really.

Mother Jones? Oh the humanity![/b]

JoramvanVugt

(3): BlueBloodedToffee, Thespio, Akuseru

Not Voting

(3): JoramvanVugt, HenryCabotLodge, notscience

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline: August 20, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-08-20 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[HenryCabotLodge]

tru^ So he jailed BBT. this means he is inno and was targeted. Or he was guilty and couldnt kill. Regardless he saw BBT as scum and would have jailed him. That means he is innocent. Or BBT is a RB and guessed the jailor and killed him. Occam's razor states BBT is innocent. Micc probably jailed BBT and someone else killed him.

I don't think it's wise to lynch based off speculating on who Micc did or didn't jail. We're assuming something is a given that can't possibly be confirmed. If you ask me, Occam's razor would dictate that either BlueBloodedToffee or Joram is scum because they stayed off the Bulba wagon. Evidence points to Micc jailing Stubbs/Bulba on night 1 but I don't think we should assume anything beyond that.

[Thespio]

tru^ So he jailed BBT. this means he is inno and was targeted. Or he was guilty and couldnt kill. Regardless he saw BBT as scum and would have jailed him. That means he is innocent. Or BBT is a RB and guessed the jailor and killed him. Occam's razor states BBT is innocent. Micc probably jailed BBT and someone else killed him.

I don't think it's wise to lynch based off speculating on who Micc did or didn't jail. We're assuming something is a given that can't possibly be confirmed. If you ask me, Occam's razor would dictate that either BlueBloodedToffee or Joram is scum because they stayed off the Bulba wagon. Evidence points to Micc jailing Stubbs/Bulba on night 1 but I don't think we should assume anything beyond that.

That wasnt who we should lynch its why i think BBT is innocent. We think its joram because of this train of thought:

-Joram stated he wanted to be copped ~this means he knows something we dont or he is a newbie.
-We now know that there was a jailor, that means there is a 50% chance there is a RB mafia.
-If mafia see's there is a RB on their side there is a 50% chance there is a cop.
-Scum also know that they attacked someone NP1 that didnt die (Stubbs probably, just to make micc look bad)
-That means they are likely to deduce that that there is a Doctor. (if they are a newbie who took a quick look and didnt realise there might be a jailor.)



That^ means that mafia had a 50% chance of getting the cop (if there is one) killed NP2, if the cop investigated Joram then told us if he was townie or scum. That would leave only a doctor who cant out the scum.

This is our reasoning.

My other reasoning was this:

-Micc suspected Stubbs and BBT so last night Mic knew there would only be 1 scum alive. Thus he could jail the 1 scum and there would be no NK. This leads me to believe he jailed BBT and thus BBT is innocent.

there is a small small chance that he is a mafia rb:

1/2 that RB exists
1/5 Chance he RB the right person

And this assumes that RB takes Priority over Jailor.

[HenryCabotLodge]

tru^ So he jailed BBT. this means he is inno and was targeted. Or he was guilty and couldnt kill. Regardless he saw BBT as scum and would have jailed him. That means he is innocent. Or BBT is a RB and guessed the jailor and killed him. Occam's razor states BBT is innocent. Micc probably jailed BBT and someone else killed him.

I don't think it's wise to lynch based off speculating on who Micc did or didn't jail. We're assuming something is a given that can't possibly be confirmed. If you ask me, Occam's razor would dictate that either BlueBloodedToffee or Joram is scum because they stayed off the Bulba wagon. Evidence points to Micc jailing Stubbs/Bulba on night 1 but I don't think we should assume anything beyond that.

That wasnt who we should lynch its why i think BBT is innocent. We think its joram because of this train of thought:

-Joram stated he wanted to be copped ~this means he knows something we dont or he is a newbie.
-We now know that there was a jailor, that means there is a 50% chance there is a RB mafia.
-If mafia see's there is a RB on their side there is a 50% chance there is a cop.
-Scum also know that they attacked someone NP1 that didnt die (Stubbs probably, just to make micc look bad)
-That means they are likely to deduce that that there is a Doctor. (if they are a newbie who took a quick look and didnt realise there might be a jailor.)



That^ means that mafia had a 50% chance of getting the cop (if there is one) killed NP2, if the cop investigated Joram then told us if he was townie or scum. That would leave only a doctor who cant out the scum.

This is our reasoning.

My other reasoning was this:

-Micc suspected Stubbs and BBT so last night Mic knew there would only be 1 scum alive. Thus he could jail the 1 scum and there would be no NK. This leads me to believe he jailed BBT and thus BBT is innocent.

there is a small small chance that he is a mafia rb:

1/2 that RB exists
1/5 Chance he RB the right person

And this assumes that RB takes Priority over Jailor.

I think I'm understanding this now. As much as I don't care for speculating on the set up, we do have something concrete to go by now that a power role has been outed through death. You definitely have something with Joram's asking for investigation (as in his being confident there's a cop and being confident he'd be cleared). The fact that he was absent at the end of yesterday and was not on the wagon for Bulbazoor's lynch makes him look doubly bad. I think I buy it. Consider this intent to hammer Joram.

[Thespio]

Some tiny part of me was fearful that micc would be last scum. I hate it when experienced players come in and end up scum.

[Thespio]

@Mod Pls Prod Joram.
@Joram, Any responses @ all?

[Thespio]

NS you have any opinions of this lynch??

[JoramvanVugt]

it took me like 20 hours to get this up.

internet on holiday works for like 5 min a day, ill be back saturday afternoon. ill catch up then. sorry

[Thespio]

slow day...

[HenryCabotLodge]

Yea, but what else can we do except sit on our hands and wait until Joram can respond to his wagon? As of right now we've accepted the thesis that BBT is practically confirmed innocent and Joram was the only player not on the Bulba wagon. Akuseru hasn't done anything scummy and I think it's highly doubtful that notscience is scum considering his play towards Bulbazoor yesterday. I'm also not prepared to go after you, Thespio. I think we just have to wait for Joram. I don't want to drop the hammer until he's had a chance to explain himself.

[Thespio]

Yea, but what else can we do except sit on our hands and wait until Joram can respond to his wagon? As of right now we've accepted the thesis that BBT is practically confirmed innocent and Joram was the only player not on the Bulba wagon. Akuseru hasn't done anything scummy and I think it's highly doubtful that notscience is scum considering his play towards Bulbazoor yesterday. I'm also not prepared to go after you, Thespio. I think we just have to wait for Joram. I don't want to drop the hammer until he's had a chance to explain himself.

I concur completely. FOS still on NS though. His reluctance to hammer is quite odd. If I was town and trying to avoid a lynch, and there was another viable wagon i would be in it in a heartbeat.

[notscience]

Meh.

I still think he's town but we have no counterwagon and I have nothing I really feel confident in.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I was originally going to vote BBT based off the fact that he spent the first half of yesterday calling bulbazoor one of his top lynch choices then opposed it as much as he could when he actually came under threat of being lynched. I also don't like how the first thing he thought to do today was prematurely defend himself from suspicion by saying somebody is trying to frame him.

The eventual point was to show that I'm town. A Micc kill sets myself up to be quick lynched because scum!BBT 100% kills Micc in that situation, no questions asked. However, scum didn't bank on Micc flipping JK and that changes everything and actually clears me instead of implicating me.

I don't think it's wise to lynch based off speculating on who Micc did or didn't jail. We're assuming something is a given that can't possibly be confirmed. If you ask me, Occam's razor would dictate that either BlueBloodedToffee or Joram is scum because they stayed off the Bulba wagon. Evidence points to Micc jailing Stubbs/Bulba on night 1 but I don't think we should assume anything beyond that.

It's not wise to speculate on who Micc did/did not jail and then you go ahead and do it anyway? What you're actually saying is 'Let's not discuss who Micc jailed N2 because that clears BBT' but we can speculate about N1 because that incriminates BBT if we believe Micc jailed my slot and there was no kill. The fact is, it's 10x easier to predict who Micc jailed N2 compared to N1.

Can you explain what evidence points to Micc jailing Stubbs/Bulba N1?

I'd lynch Henry Today. His posts are really pinging me and I'm seriously contemplating lynching him over Joram.

I still think he's town but we have no counterwagon and I have nothing I really feel confident in.

You should do something about this because right now you're not very useful.

[Thespio]

Guys remember there is a 50% chance that there is a BP Townie. There might not have been a kill because they shot the BP.

@BBT, HCL's Posts basicly town confirm him here. If he was scum he wouldnt be arguing his innocence. Also, Just because its likely you were cleared doesnt mean you are out of the fire yet. My lynch order is:
JORAM>>NS>>BBT>>HCL>>AKU


wait is it lylo tomorrow? assuming a mislynch?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

It's MyLo tomorrow if we mislynch.

Henry isn't arguing his innocence, he is lining up lynches. His U-turn on Joram was ugly as well, I really don't like it.

[Akuseru]

Meh.

I still think he's town but we have no counterwagon and I have nothing I really feel confident in.

How about lynching HCL? Would you be down for that?

[Thespio]

Ive concluded that BBT is likely town and that Aku is as well, but HCL is less and so is joram.. Although lynchin HCL urks me

[Akuseru]

Although lynchin HCL urks me

How come?

[Akuseru]

Spoiler: I'll probably be unavailable this weekend, so I'll just post my thoughts on HCL and Joram (my 2 choices for lynch)

HCL

1. HCL tends to ignore the negative comments/scum reads on him (the ones that are not directed at him but more towards everyone else)...

545

979

1011



...unless they're from Bulba

619 - Bulba mentions an HCL action (pretty light in comparison to the above links) that bugged him. HCL comments on it/explains himself (in the last paragraph of that post).




2. I never really liked his reason for voting NS (starting from day 1 and throughout day 2).

Day 1, he kept pressing that NS was pushing a stoz lynch based on stoz' activity and he considered that scummy (which I didn't agree with since NS was pushing for a lynch that wasn't his town reads and stoz had a wagon so why not? What's wrong with lynching stoz for his activity/lack of content?), he then pressed that it would make NS look bad if stoz flips towns.

Day 2 - Primary reason for voting NS is because stoz flipped town. 826 - last paragraph.

They're not terrible reasons for voting NS, but compared to those reasons, bubla was more suspicious (ie: HCL didn't like how NS was voting stoz based on activity (said it was flimsy), but he didn't comment on Bulba's reasons for voting NS: arrogance and "sheeping". With his vote on NS, HCL still stayed "objective" and called out any scummy behaviour he saw in other players (ie: 684, 709), so I don't understand why he didn't call out bubla. He rarely commented on bulba unless asked.




3. He passively complains about NS not being around to post so he (HCL) can further his case against him (His excuse for why his reasoning for voting NS is getting weaker in comparison to the developing bulba wagon)

notscience - Still scum. His absent is detrimental to my case since there's a lot of new information to go on, but I'm still comfortable with my vote on him based on what I've said already.

He get's his chance...

Oh shit he's here!

Not comfortable lynching bulba before we've had some input from notscience.

..but doesn't engage with him. NS is his top scum read, and he could have pushed/questioned him (along with BBT) but didn't. That was odd.

A couple days later HCL posts:

NS has also not posted in awhile, which hurts my case against him in light of new developments.

You've had your chance to talk to him. You could have left questions for him to answer. You decided to stop going after your top scum read. But now it's NS' fault for not acting scummy anymore? How did his inactivity hurt your case (note: the inactivity between NS' last post and the above quote)?




4.

I think it's highly doubtful that notscience is scum considering his play towards Bulbazoor yesterday.

However, near the end of day two...

OK, so you DO see them as a possible scum team then?

Yes. There are many possible scum teams at this point.

Anything is possible, this could be a protracted performance by the two of them- they were, after all, the chief defenders of Joram on day 1 and the movers in the Stoz lynch. Day 2 (without a nightkill without a nightkill on Day 1!) is not the time for such speculation, though. It's better to lynch somebody based off of their posting and what it would mean for the town, and right now I think Bulbazoor is the best player for that.

You say it's highly doubtful based on his play yesterday. However, based on his play yesterday, you said it was a possibility and even gave reasons why. Why didn't you mention it was highly doubtful yesterday when BBT asked you? Instead you pressed that NS was still scum. You didn't explicitly say they were a scum team, yet you wouldn't drop NS as scum. Either you did think they were a scum team, or you voted Bulba even though you thought he was town (a scummy town, but still town). If so, why would you vote bulba if you were town reading him?

Joram

1. Most of my points against him basically come down to him being a really bad townie. And not in the scum-trying-to-act-town-but-failing way. He's just a bad townie (consequently making him a bad scum...)

[JoramvanVugt]

Okay we went home a day early cause the weather was gonna be super bad tomorrow.

Im home again and i have my amazing internet back xD. tomorrow i will catch up with all posts and share my reads etc.
I noticed that Bulba was a mafia goon, i did not expect this and my read on him was wrong.

[Akuseru]

Also, can we have a mass claim (I'm VT), please? I really want to clear up the whole RB being in this game. Can the 1-shot/BP townie please identify themselves.

If there's one, I'll take the time to look over Joram more. If not...I don't think two goons would risk being caught role fishing for a role that isn't even in the setup.

[Akuseru]

JORAM BEFORE YOU GO, WHAT IS YOUR ROLE?!!

[JoramvanVugt]

Aku ive already claimed before. Vanilla townie