Newbie 1625: American Spring - Day 5 (DL - 08/31)
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Thespio Mafia Scum
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Akuseru Goon
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fferyllt Titan of Trajectory
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Last edited by fferyllt on Wed Aug 05, 2015 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.-
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HenryCabotLodge Goon
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In post 1024, Thespio wrote:tru^ So he jailed BBT. this means he is inno and was targeted. Or he was guilty and couldnt kill. Regardless he saw BBT as scum and would have jailed him. That means he is innocent. Or BBT is a RB and guessed the jailor and killed him. Occam's razor states BBT is innocent. Micc probably jailed BBT and someone else killed him.
I don't think it's wise to lynch based off speculating on who Micc did or didn't jail. We're assuming something is a given that can't possibly be confirmed. If you ask me, Occam's razor would dictate that either BlueBloodedToffee or Joram is scum because they stayed off the Bulba wagon. Evidence points to Micc jailing Stubbs/Bulba on night 1 but I don't think we should assume anything beyond that.-
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Thespio Mafia Scum
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In post 1028, HenryCabotLodge wrote:In post 1024, Thespio wrote:tru^ So he jailed BBT. this means he is inno and was targeted. Or he was guilty and couldnt kill. Regardless he saw BBT as scum and would have jailed him. That means he is innocent. Or BBT is a RB and guessed the jailor and killed him. Occam's razor states BBT is innocent. Micc probably jailed BBT and someone else killed him.
I don't think it's wise to lynch based off speculating on who Micc did or didn't jail. We're assuming something is a given that can't possibly be confirmed. If you ask me, Occam's razor would dictate that either BlueBloodedToffee or Joram is scum because they stayed off the Bulba wagon. Evidence points to Micc jailing Stubbs/Bulba on night 1 but I don't think we should assume anything beyond that.
That wasnt who we should lynch its why i think BBT is innocent. We think its joram because of this train of thought:
-Joram stated he wanted to be copped ~this means he knows something we dont or he is a newbie.
-We now know that there was a jailor, that means there is a 50% chance there is a RB mafia.
-If mafia see's there is a RB on their side there is a 50% chance there is a cop.
-Scum also know that they attacked someone NP1 that didnt die (Stubbs probably, just to make micc look bad)
-That means they are likely to deduce that that there is a Doctor. (if they are a newbie who took a quick look and didnt realise there might be a jailor.)
That^ means that mafia had a 50% chance of getting the cop (if there is one) killed NP2, if the cop investigated Joram then told us if he was townie or scum. That would leave only a doctor who cant out the scum.
This is our reasoning.
My other reasoning was this:
-Micc suspected Stubbs and BBT so last night Mic knew there would only be 1 scum alive. Thus he could jail the 1 scum and there would be no NK. This leads me to believe he jailed BBT and thus BBT is innocent.
there is a small small chance that he is a mafia rb:
1/2 that RB exists
1/5 Chance he RB the right person
And this assumes that RB takes Priority over Jailor.-
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HenryCabotLodge Goon
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In post 1029, Thespio wrote:In post 1028, HenryCabotLodge wrote:In post 1024, Thespio wrote:tru^ So he jailed BBT. this means he is inno and was targeted. Or he was guilty and couldnt kill. Regardless he saw BBT as scum and would have jailed him. That means he is innocent. Or BBT is a RB and guessed the jailor and killed him. Occam's razor states BBT is innocent. Micc probably jailed BBT and someone else killed him.
I don't think it's wise to lynch based off speculating on who Micc did or didn't jail. We're assuming something is a given that can't possibly be confirmed. If you ask me, Occam's razor would dictate that either BlueBloodedToffee or Joram is scum because they stayed off the Bulba wagon. Evidence points to Micc jailing Stubbs/Bulba on night 1 but I don't think we should assume anything beyond that.
That wasnt who we should lynch its why i think BBT is innocent. We think its joram because of this train of thought:
-Joram stated he wanted to be copped ~this means he knows something we dont or he is a newbie.
-We now know that there was a jailor, that means there is a 50% chance there is a RB mafia.
-If mafia see's there is a RB on their side there is a 50% chance there is a cop.
-Scum also know that they attacked someone NP1 that didnt die (Stubbs probably, just to make micc look bad)
-That means they are likely to deduce that that there is a Doctor. (if they are a newbie who took a quick look and didnt realise there might be a jailor.)
That^ means that mafia had a 50% chance of getting the cop (if there is one) killed NP2, if the cop investigated Joram then told us if he was townie or scum. That would leave only a doctor who cant out the scum.
This is our reasoning.
My other reasoning was this:
-Micc suspected Stubbs and BBT so last night Mic knew there would only be 1 scum alive. Thus he could jail the 1 scum and there would be no NK. This leads me to believe he jailed BBT and thus BBT is innocent.
there is a small small chance that he is a mafia rb:
1/2 that RB exists
1/5 Chance he RB the right person
And this assumes that RB takes Priority over Jailor.
I think I'm understanding this now. As much as I don't care for speculating on the set up, we do have something concrete to go by now that a power role has been outed through death. You definitely have something with Joram's asking for investigation (as in his being confident there's a cop and being confident he'd be cleared). The fact that he was absent at the end of yesterday and was not on the wagon for Bulbazoor's lynch makes him look doubly bad. I think I buy it. Consider this intent to hammer Joram.-
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Thespio Mafia Scum
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Thespio Mafia Scum
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Thespio Mafia Scum
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JoramvanVugt Goon
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Thespio
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HenryCabotLodge Goon
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Yea, but what else can we do except sit on our hands and wait until Joram can respond to his wagon? As of right now we've accepted the thesis that BBT is practically confirmed innocent and Joram was the only player not on the Bulba wagon. Akuseru hasn't done anything scummy and I think it's highly doubtful that notscience is scum considering his play towards Bulbazoor yesterday. I'm also not prepared to go after you, Thespio. I think we just have to wait for Joram. I don't want to drop the hammer until he's had a chance to explain himself.-
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Thespio Mafia Scum
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In post 1036, HenryCabotLodge wrote:Yea, but what else can we do except sit on our hands and wait until Joram can respond to his wagon? As of right now we've accepted the thesis that BBT is practically confirmed innocent and Joram was the only player not on the Bulba wagon. Akuseru hasn't done anything scummy and I think it's highly doubtful that notscience is scum considering his play towards Bulbazoor yesterday. I'm also not prepared to go after you, Thespio. I think we just have to wait for Joram. I don't want to drop the hammer until he's had a chance to explain himself.
I concur completely. FOS still on NS though. His reluctance to hammer is quite odd. If I was town and trying to avoid a lynch, and there was another viable wagon i would be in it in a heartbeat.-
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notscience Survivor
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BlueBloodedToffee Survivor
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In post 1015, HenryCabotLodge wrote:
I was originally going to vote BBT based off the fact that he spent the first half of yesterday calling bulbazoor one of his top lynch choices then opposed it as much as he could when he actually came under threat of being lynched. I also don't like how the first thing he thought to do today was prematurely defend himself from suspicion by saying somebody is trying to frame him.
The eventual point was to show that I'm town. A Micc kill sets myself up to be quick lynched because scum!BBT 100% kills Micc in that situation, no questions asked. However, scum didn't bank on Micc flipping JK and that changes everything and actually clears me instead of implicating me.
In post 1028, HenryCabotLodge wrote:
I don't think it's wise to lynch based off speculating on who Micc did or didn't jail. We're assuming something is a given that can't possibly be confirmed. If you ask me, Occam's razor would dictate that either BlueBloodedToffee or Joram is scum because they stayed off the Bulba wagon. Evidence points to Micc jailing Stubbs/Bulba on night 1 but I don't think we should assume anything beyond that.
It's not wise to speculate on who Micc did/did not jail and then you go ahead and do it anyway? What you're actually saying is 'Let's not discuss who Micc jailed N2 because that clears BBT' but we can speculate about N1 because that incriminates BBT if we believe Micc jailed my slot and there was no kill. The fact is, it's 10x easier to predict who Micc jailed N2 compared to N1.
Can you explain what evidence points to Micc jailing Stubbs/Bulba N1?
I'd lynch Henry Today. His posts are really pinging me and I'm seriously contemplating lynching him over Joram.
In post 1038, notscience wrote:
I still think he's town but we have no counterwagon and I have nothing I really feel confident in.
You should do something about this because right now you're not very useful.Meta this. Meta that. Meta Everything. Meta is not a good scum-hunting tool. PEOPLE CAN MANIPULATE THEIR META. Stop it. Stop. It. Now.-
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Thespio Mafia Scum
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Guys remember there is a 50% chance that there is a BP Townie. There might not have been a kill because they shot the BP.
@BBT, HCL's Posts basicly town confirm him here. If he was scum he wouldnt be arguing his innocence. Also, Just because its likely you were cleared doesnt mean you are out of the fire yet. My lynch order is:
JORAM>>NS>>BBT>>HCL>>AKU
wait is it lylo tomorrow? assuming a mislynch?-
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BlueBloodedToffee Survivor
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Akuseru Goon
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In post 1038, notscience wrote:Meh.
I still think he's town but we have no counterwagon and I have nothing I really feel confident in.
How about lynching HCL? Would you be down for that?-
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Thespio Mafia Scum
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Akuseru Goon
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Akuseru Goon
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JoramvanVugt Goon
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Akuseru Goon
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Also, can we have a mass claim (I'm VT), please? I really want to clear up the whole RB being in this game. Can the 1-shot/BP townie please identify themselves.
If there's one, I'll take the time to look over Joram more. If not...I don't think two goons would risk being caught role fishing for a role that isn't even in the setup.-
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Akuseru Goon
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JoramvanVugt Goon
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