Micro 567: Kids with Guns - Game Over

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: RaskoInikov

any reason why you didn't vote TellTaleHeart?

[GuiltyLion]

do you think that makes him a possible mafia though? i cant see your reasons considering that you didn't vote telltaleheart either... ;-,

Everyone is a possible mafia, I'm just asking him to start conversation.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm pretty sure he's at L-2, not L-1. I'm not completely sold on advantage being genuine with his claim but if he did think he was gonna get hammered then he probably would have suicide bombed if he's the bomber.

Why'd you ignore my question? What's with the rush to hammer here?

[GuiltyLion]

I agree with this. the claim was bad. I am comfortable with where my vote is.

This doesn't feel right to me as a response to my post. I wasn't saying the claim was bad. I was trying to make the point that a suicide bomber at L-1 would probably bomb if they truly believed they were about to be hammered. However, since advantage was at L-2, it's impossible to know whether he truly believed he was about to be hammered or not, so it's a bit of a wash which is why I hedged in my opening sentence.

this really just looks like aa9 is trying to come up with any reason to keep going for an easy lynch/continue with her rvs push out of convenience.

I agree with this too.

VOTE: ArcAngel9

[GuiltyLion]

BTW, ArcAngel9 is completely correct about the downside of claiming VT.

It's a bad move for town

because it gives the mafia better odds to hit a power role in a random nk. An outed VT cannot provide camouflage for power roles and

thus becomes a useless thing

.

Yes but is it scum?

I see newbies prematurely claim VT in Newbie games all the time and I'm always going to be more suspicious of the people that advocate to lynch them solely on those grounds.

[GuiltyLion]

oh whoops sorry I didn't realize that was the same color as yours N_M, you can change that post color in the quote or something if you want.

that's a bad mistake I'm sorry

[GuiltyLion]

^do you think advantage is scum or not?

[GuiltyLion]

Nothing any of them have said is technically "wrong" or "scummy" per se. GuiltyLion and Khan have an oddly robotic feel to their posts. They seem to have no trouble pointing out things that could potentially be scummy but there's a missing link that would really give their logic trains anything satisfyingly readable.

Look, I'm fine with you scumreading me for a "robotic feel" to my posts, I get that a fair amount.

But if you think there's a missing link to my thought processes, why don't you ask me about what you think is missing to see if you can find it?

Because when you start saying things like this:

I see a couple GuiltyLion town reads bouncing around the thread. Would anyone care to explain them?

without talking to me directly,

it begins to read like you want to discredit the idea of me being town more than you want to genuinely attempt to sort me.

[GuiltyLion]

advantage is basically the towniest person in the thread at this point and I'm waiting for arcangel to justify that terrible vote on him, and an answer to my question from Kublai Khan.

I also don't like this:

You just hid behind a claim that's easily faked by scum. You valued your skin over the town.

coming from Kublai Khan immediately after he said this:

The biggest criticism I always get in early game play is that I blow things out of proportion. I'm trying to change that by acknowledging that the charge I've levied is over-blown in nature.

[GuiltyLion]

In 63 you acknowledge that you are often criticized for blowing things way out of proportion. Your approach to correct this is to acknowledge that your charges are overblown.

Then in the next post you go and make an even more overblown charge by saying advantage "valued his skin over the town".

It felt like an intentional effort to provoke a response from advantage, which you are clearly self-aware of given 63. I can see this possibly coming from town as a method of scumhunting, but it also worries me because if you are scum and someone reacts poorly, you can spin their reaction to push them as scummy rather easily.

Basically those two posts are a weird mix of transparent and not transparent and I don't feel like I trust you enough yet to understand where you were going with 64.

Overblown charges in general are a warning sign to me because scum is more likely to dress things up as scummier than they actually are.

[GuiltyLion]

ArcAngel9 - I have a leaning town read on him. He has reads and acts on them, but he doesn't have any strong follow-up to his votes. Time will tell.

Can you explain this read? It seems very shallow compared to the level of effort put into your other reads, and I'm not sure why you are so quick to townread ArcAngel when I see nothing town in her ISO.

I don't even see the need to try to figure out who is which mafia because it doesn't really matter. We aren't ever going to get to a point where we are trying to specifically lynch the suicide bomber.

So is this the thrust of your case against me - me thinking advantage is probably not suicide bomber?

We aren't trying to specifically lynch either mafia role, but it's a given that the suicide bomber will bomb as soon as they feel like they are about to be lynched. That's the only point I was trying to make - if advantage seriously believed he might get lynched, he probably would have bombed there. It wasn't a full read on advantage, who I consider my strongest townread now.

One, it feels like you're painting me with a broad "this is scummy" brush, but there's literally nothing there.

You're accusing me of doing something which could potentially be done by scum. That's the nature of the whole game. Everything could potentially be done by scum. That's not really a valid reason to "not like" what someone is doing.

Second, why are you isolating the scenario where I am the only one that could take advantage of a "poor reaction"? When I pressure a newb (or someone whom I think responds poor to pressure) it's also to learn from the reactions of everyone else to that poor reaction.

First I'm not voting you, I don't have a strong read on your alignment yet. Part of the reason I called it out was to see how you would respond.

If something "potentially done by scum" is not a valid reason to dislike something, then what would you consider a valid reason to dislike something?

I didn't say you could be the only one who could exploit a poor reaction, but you were the one provoking it with your loaded accusation. I'm mostly trying to generate more content and see how people react to things, because there's hardly been anything alignment-indicative so far.

[GuiltyLion]

I am reading guilty as scum because I don't see his reason to jump into my wagon, it looks like easy vote of a scum.

he should be lynched today.

This is literally trash. My vote is on you because you tried to justify your advantage vote on the basis of him claiming VT, rather than a genuine belief in him being scum.

Answer my question please, since you ignored it:

do you think advantage is scum?

[GuiltyLion]

Claiming VT is bad.. It minimizes scum chances to hit VT's. Even if you're telling truth.. youre as good as dead.

^Quoting this again to show what I'm talking about

how is advantage "as good as dead" if he is truly a VT? Given that you literally just said scum won't attack him the sentence before. This thought process doesn't make any sense. This post is the kind of post that scum make when they want to try to drive mislynch wagons through to completion.

[GuiltyLion]

One, it's busy-posting. It's similar to IIOA, except it's not even information. It's not fluff either. It's just... words. You're wording. "Look at all the words I'm wording!". It doesn't contribute anything to the game.

I'm responding to what I understand to be your case on me:

Like, why focus on that? I don't even see the need to try to figure out who is which mafia because it doesn't really matter. We aren't ever going to get to a point where we are trying to specifically lynch the suicide bomber.

I posted to explain my thoughts better regarding this point, and now you're just calling it words.

This feels like a disingenuous attack from you - am I not allowed to clarify and answer your question to help you read me accurately?

So to steer this conversation somewhere productive:

why do you think I'm scum?

because clearly there is a miscommunication here.

Two, it's poor reasoning. If advantage had posted a minute after Raskolnikov and said "Woah, don't hammer I'm VT" then sure whatever. You might have a point. But it was a half-hour. advantage had plenty of time to properly count the votes (game was literally two pages) and then decide to fakeclaim. I imagine a Suicide Bomber would be hyper-aware of the number of votes on them.

This is basically exactly why I said at the time:

I'm pretty sure he's at L-2, not L-1. I'm not completely sold on advantage being genuine with his claim

but if he did think he was gonna get hammered then he probably would have suicide bombed if he's the bomber.

Is this the basis of your townread on advantage?

No, my townread comes from basically everything he's posted since my 30.

[GuiltyLion]

The AA9 push is still rough but I'm still giving him a little time to develop it.

I agree that my push is rough but that's partially because AA9 is giving nothing to work with. She won't answer my question, she's actively lurking/prodging, she's offered almost nothing in terms of reads on players or comments about the game. Her ISO consists of an L-1 vote on advantage, a justification of her vote that he should be lynched for claiming VT, and then an OMGUS switch to me.

Like I don't see how anyone reads that at town. We should be forcing her to give us more to work with.

[GuiltyLion]

i still think this is a bad reason to vote guiltylion.

but anyway i am busy and i will just VOTE: guiltylion since i don't have time to write more.

i can explain more later i hope... ;-,

Yeah I'm waiting for you to explain this one. If you don't agree with AA's vote on me then why are you joining her on the same wagon?

[GuiltyLion]

received prod. sorry mod
this game is so stalled I don't have much inputs yet. I am reading guilty as scum because I don't see his reason to jump into my wagon, it looks like easy vote of a scum.

he should be lynched today

. with that said I am okay with my vote on him unless if anyone else have better theory on other wagons, I will rethink about it.

This is another example of what I mentioned earlier about how AA is posting to get people lynched, rather than sort the alignment of other players.

Town has no reason to say the bolded part unless they're absolutely convinced I'm scum. But her last sentence immediately after it doesn't make it sound like she's convinced I'm scum.

So why would town!AA9 be:
a) so certain that I'm scum given that I explained exactly why I voted her?
b) so confident that I should be lynched over anyone else in the game?

[GuiltyLion]

Claiming VT is bad.. It minimizes scum chances to hit VT's. Even if you're telling truth.. youre as good as dead. So we lynch you..

advantage

where in this post do you get the sense that she genuinely believes that you're scum?

[GuiltyLion]

ironically in #132 guiltylion is himself just posting to get arcangel9 lynched not sort the alignment of players.

did you ever consider that I say things and make votes to get reactions

There's a difference between saying "she should be the lynch today" and keeping my vote on her until she responds to my question.

[GuiltyLion]

also i think he is responding by attacking kublai khan as well who was being voted earlier so that he can potentially vote for kublai khan, if more people decided to go with it.

it's important to argue with multiple people to figure out what they're thinking and why

so that you see their intentions and motives - even if I die, you'll see my argument with KK in a different light

you seem to be concluding that I'm scum and then analyzing everything I do following from that assumption, instead of looking at what I'm doing and then trying to figure out what my alignment is. Like in the second half of this sentence, you're speculating about what I could potentially do, when I haven't done it at all.

[GuiltyLion]

i think she is a townie

why?

citing her posts as your evidence

[GuiltyLion]

also in #132 he is trying to point out things about arcangel9 as if she is a townie who he wants to be lynched instead of himself.

can you explain this in more detail too? Which things? Where do I posture as if she's town?

135 was a pretty terrible post man. pretty much kills my townread on you, it pings me hard as a scum-who-is-being-townread jumping into an existing TvT.

[GuiltyLion]

Why do you think I'm scum though?!?

You said "his vote on me was vague"

I said "I voted you because you justified your vote on advantage on the basis of him claiming VT"

Then you did nothing the rest of the game.

This game is beyond frustrating.

[GuiltyLion]

Guys, let's say you lynch me today and I flip town. Who will you look at next? Will you get the sense that you understand where aa9's head is at? Why am I literally the only one trying to pressure her here?

There's 4 days until deadline, the leading wagon is on town with no real viable CWs currently at this point, and half the playerbase are being lurksacks. This is going to be a town loss unless some of you start doing more stuff.

[GuiltyLion]

And aa9 STILL refuses to give me her read on advantage

[GuiltyLion]

the last several pages/days have been a loop of:

-someone says guiltylion is scum
-i push back and argue with them
-they disappear

This is barely going to be useful after I flip. there's hardly any associative information between any other players, and if you think you've magically caught scum with the terrible arguments against me on D1 through six pages, you're wrong

[GuiltyLion]

Now you're attacking back because i think youre scum

also, this is a misrep.

I'm not attacking you because you think I'm scum.

I'm attacking you because of the confidence with which you say it and your abject lack of interest in attacking/talking to anyone else.

Like townies should never be certain of a lynch 100 posts into the game. You aren't even considering whether you're wrong - if you're actually town here then it's terrible play. What are your thoughts on advantage's 135?

[GuiltyLion]

@mod - I think advantage is voting me, not Suzune, and Marquis is voting Suzune

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - wait no Marquis switched to aa9, so no one is voting Suzune

[GuiltyLion]

I can lynch Suzune if she doesn't make any kind of substantive input before day end, but I still feel AA9 is overaggressively pushing for lynches (with at least one of them being a mislynch fmpov) whereas Suzune is lazily coasting

[GuiltyLion]

why would you not claim in this setup?

[GuiltyLion]

Yeah I know that, wanted to see what she'd say

[GuiltyLion]

I think there's a pretty good chance of it

if she doesn't I'd look at advantage, he didn't seem to want to commit one way or the other in the argument

[GuiltyLion]

plus TTH, KK, Marquis all look hella town to me, I liked Rasko before he disappeared. Suzune slot is also worth a second look tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

Do you think that ArcAngel9 is scum that isn't fighting a lackadaisical wagon or scum that can count votes?

I mean at this point I feel she is more and more likely scum as there's no reason not to be fighting this wagon if you're town.

The fact that she is singularly fixated on me also looks like she's trying to avoid slipping any information about her partner

[GuiltyLion]

I'm waiting on the replacement but I'm glad AA9 finally gave her read on advantage

[GuiltyLion]

droog if you have aa9 meta, is it normal for her to tunnel like this or does she normally advance the game more?

the stubborn refusal to engage with me I could potentially see as town but I don't like how she hasn't interacted with anyone else this game

[GuiltyLion]

I still think aa9 is the best lynch for today, esp if she's played like this as scum before

[GuiltyLion]

okay so one day until deadline

I'm slightly paranoid scum!droog or scum!Marquis is redirecting a lynch away from scum!aa9 here.

Before day end - in one day - we need things to happen:

if we're lynching KK:

-Khan response
-three people of {advantage, Rasko, TTH, GL} to move their vote

I will move my vote if Khan hits L-1 and we're like minutes away from a no lynch, but I don't want to move my vote yet without Khan and advantage and aa9 here.

if we're lynching aa9:

-two people out of {KK, advantage, droog, Marquis} to move their votes.

Droog/Marquis already indicated they don't want to do this, I'm not sure we can count on that.

So it's key that advantage and Khan check in here and let us know what they're thinking, or else we really risk a no lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

:O

[GuiltyLion]

Nobody hammer, I don't think it's Rasko and I don't particularly like this wagon

In this game of Kids with Guns, Not_Mafia bussed the hell out of his suicide bomber partner, and coasted off of the towncredit the rest of the way to the win.

I suspect something similar happened here, especially seeing how multiple players are limiting their lynchpool to those off of the wagon and lining up preferred lynch orders.

VOTE: advantage

I need a much better case on Rasko then what we have currently

[GuiltyLion]

actually I think I like

VOTE: droog

better, after sleeping on it and doing some light rereading

[GuiltyLion]

i really disagree with IC revealing though, they should only do that if they hit L-1 or if it's LYLO. don't like how advantage is fishing for it at all

and please don't just rank your preferred lynch orders, that basically gives scum a blueprint of who to NK and introduces a lot of WIFOM as the kills happen.

[GuiltyLion]

wow I played terribly this game

[GuiltyLion]

thanks for carrying me town

also thanks Not_Mafia for modding, it was well run and a lot of fun!