Mini 1748: ClownTardis Mafia - GAME OVER!

[Not_Mafia]

I blocked plotting kittens last noght

[Plottin Kittehs]

What did you do on night 4?

--P

[BROseidon]

Hey guys, who wants to get stuck in an infinite NL->NK loop because if not_mafia kills again it confirms him as the remaining scum?

[BROseidon]

Kuroi and Kittehs have both been blocked by not_maf. That means that it has to be him or me unless the kill is unblockable.

If we NL, him performing a kill confirms him as scum (which I know to be the case from my POV). Therefore he has to NK.

VOTE: not_maf

[Not_Mafia]

What did you do on night 4?

--P

I copped Aeronaut

And I don't trust my role block 100%, because a) role madness and b) I was told no one visited rob the night he died

VOTE: NL

[Plottin Kittehs]

Do you have to use all of your abilities before you can reuse them?

If so, I don't think any of the resulting scenarios are meaningfully different than today's scenario. If someone dies, you can claim to have not seen anything again, or you can claim a guilty on probably-broseidon (implying x-shot ninja instead of full ninja), but since it's LYLO you'll be in the same 1v1 you're in today, just without an extra town player alive to make the decision. If nobody dies then Day 7 is exactly the same as Day 6.

If not, and you're free to use your roleblock on night 6, then regardless of who the last scum is, no kill gambit is the best solution, and then Day 7 is 4p MYLO again. + The question arises of why you used cop instead of roleblock on Night 4.

Let me know if i'm missing something obvious here.


I don't think I'll need the full two weeks for this, and I'm pretty sure i know where we'll be voting, but I'd like to talk to kuroi some, and I'd like to read over some things, just to be sure.


Kuroi, how would you account for the differences in your playstyle that i'm noticing between this game and the game that I ICed?


Broseidon, how would you have approached this game differently if your alignment were different?

--P

[KuroiXHF]

VC 6.1

Day 6 Begins!

Not Voting

(4): Plottin Kittehs, BROseidon, KuroiXFH, Not_Mafia

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline: February 18, Noon US Eastern Time
Countdown: (expired on 2016-02-18 09:00:00)

Mod Notes:

I would like to say that both Plottin' Kittehs and BROseidon are NOT serial killers. If we have lynched no other serial killers, it has to be Not_Mafia, right? Are we in a LYLO situation? If not, assuming we don't have a troll mod who creates serial killer investigators with no serial killers, I think by the process of elimination, we have our man.

Do you have to use all of your abilities before you can reuse them?

If so, this sounds sketchy.

Kuroi, how would you account for the differences in your playstyle that i'm noticing between this game and the game that I ICed?

I have a MUCH shitter game this game. I freely admit that and for some reason, I have a hard time getting into it. I am trying, however.

[Plottin Kittehs]

i motivated kuroi and aeronaut both nights. If kuroi didn't get a message today that he can check two people tonight, then that confirms me being roleblocked by not_mafia.


We're looking for the last scum. I wouldn't rule out mod trolling, it says "clown" in the game title after all.

Not mafia claimed to have copped shiro on night 1, roleblocked you on night 2, watched Rob on night 3 (he died, but no one visited him), copped aeronaut on night 4, roleblocked me on night 5.

Not mafia has used his abilities in a rotating pattern of cop, roleblock, watch, cop, roleblock.... The roleblock seems like the most powerful of those, especially after the watch failed. If he has to use all 3 before he can reuse them, then watcher is next, and that's the one that failed on night 3. He wasn't roleblocked, because he didn't get "no result"; he was told that nobody visited Rob, which implies Ninja and implies that tonight he again won't see something if there is something to be seen, so I want to know what he hopes to gain by going to night phase. If he can use his abilities in any order, then I want to know about why he made the choices he did, but there's the broader point that regardless of which ability he uses tonight he'll probably be in a 1v1 with broseidon tomorrow.


A kill happened on night 2, even though you were roleblocked. A kill happened on night 3, even though you were probably jailkept by Rob. A kill happened on night 5, even though I was roleblocked. These imply that neither of us can be the killer, unless one of us is a Strongman. The Rob kill implies that the mafia don't have a strongman because he was lynchable after what happened with Soren, so it's more likely he was killed for his role (jailkeeper) than because he was too town to be lynched or because of his reads. (He died without an opinion on not mafia, scumreading you, and townreading me and broseidon. He was the only nightkill target who scumread you, though.) This implies that jailkeeper is a threat to the scumteam which implies no strongman.

Putting those things together means the two of us are almost certainly town, which means we're choosing between broseidon and not mafia and one of us dying over night is unlikely to untangle things all that much.


This is MYLO. It's similar to LYLO, but less dangerous because it takes two townies voting wrong for the game to be lost, not one. In MYLO, if there is nobody confirmed town, it can be a good strategy to no lynch to see who will be killed and take your chances in 3p LYLO, but if there are confirmed town, then no lynching just ensures that one of the confirmed town will die, leaving us knowing nothing that we didn't know the day before.



--P

[BROseidon]

Broseidon, how would you have approached this game differently if your alignment were different?

If I were scum, I wouldn't have initiated the pressure on Davsto. Being in a 2-person scum team in an 11 person game would have made me strongly averse to bussing, especially given that I'd have the ability with this playerlist to throw my weight around and keep eyes off of Davsto and on other soft targets throughout the game (not to mention that his role was fucking bonkers, which would have provided further incentive not to bus). My first pressure target would have likely been Persivul, Shiro, FA, or Soren.

[KuroiXHF]

Plottin, I was able to check one person per night, which is how I found out about you and BROseidon. However, regardless of a serial killer existing or not, mafia still has to be caught. Even if we find and kill a serial killer, mafia could kill a townie tonight and win, so...

[Plottin Kittehs]

@Bro: thanks, that makes a lot of sense. Would you have been assuming 2:11 right off the bat or multiball?


@Kuroi:
:/ Then I must have been blocked on night 4 as well because I motivated both you and Aeronaut both nights. I was hoping that this way whichever of you survived would clear everybody of being a serial killer, because i've been suspecting for a while that there isn't one.

I think the serial killer is a red herring. Serial killers tend to kill people. There has been exactly one kill per night each night.


The flipped roles we have are:

1. art vendor (useless)
   
2. someone who can write mod messages (mostly useless)
   
3. another art vendor (useless)
   
4. a
   jailkeeper
   (useful)
   
5. ari's
   JOAT
   abilities:
   
   1. (vanilla cop (useless)
      
   2. determine if two players share an alignment
      (useful)
      
   3. forensic investigator (useless because ninjas)
      
   4. see the future (flashy but useless)
      
   5. something about screwdrivers (unknown whether it was useful or not)
   
   
6. an FBI agent (useless)

Nobody in this setup is a vanilla townie, but many might as well be. I think that you, Aeronaut, Shiro, Soren, and Cheetory were vanilla townies in spirit if not in name. My own role is pretty useless because its only function is to amplify other roles, but most of the roles that I could motivate are useless.

Town doesn't have enough power to cope with a serial killer and and a mafia and there are 6 unaccounted for missing kills. I think our situation is 3:1 (Three town, one mafia) not 2:1:1 (two town, one mafia, one sk).

Also, two FBI agents would be pretty unfair to a serial killer. It's hard to win a game as 3rd party even zero FBI agents on your trail.

We're trying to find davsto's scumbuddy.

--P

[BROseidon]

@Bro: thanks, that makes a lot of sense. Would you have been assuming 2:11 right off the bat or multiball?

I would have assumed a traitor, SK, or multiball, in that order.

[KuroiXHF]

If everyone that has been said is true, I most suspect Not Mafia. If he is truly a Jack of all Trades, his most frequent use of role blocking is more of a hindrance than anything else to the town. More than that, his role blocking is the only thing that's been proven.

IF he could refresh after using all of it, why would he use the role block BEFORE the investigative? My instincts are that he's a mafia roleblocker.

Needless to say, I'm tempted to vote him.

[Not_Mafia]

Yes I have to use each of my abilities before they can be reused they don't have to be in that particular order, that's just coincidence

[Plottin Kittehs]

@Kuroi: if there's anything you need from me or the others to help you make up your mind, let us know.


I went through your ISO earlier and made a map of it (i'm going to start calling them maps now instead of "numbers thing" because it sounds cooler).

kuroi 1537

Broseidon

-?=552 | | | =1336 =1349 =1353 =1357 =1499 =1499 | +1531

Not_Mafia

+99 =373 =377 -426 -438 -501 =552 =591 -659 -880 -883 -887 =889 | | v1282 u1300 | -1336 -1342 +1367 +1370 =1386 -1398 =1499 | -1531 -1537

Plottin Kittehs

=89 =552 -883 | =1227 | | =1342 =1349 =1386 +1391 =1457 =1499 =1505 | +-1531 =1534

---

Frozen Angel

+351 =361 =365 =382

-426

-433 +-+434 =438 =443 =501 =552 =552 =663 -883 =887

-932

✝

Shiro

=501 =900 ✝

Davsto

-v501

-552 -591 -880 -883 -889 -932 | ✝

Cheetory6/faq2

-157 -906 | ✝

Soren

v32 u104 +426 +501 =552 +878 +883 -889 | | -1300 v1301 ✝

Rob13

=350 -v426 -438 -u501 -552 -663 +887 -932 | -v1151 | =1301 ✝

Aristophanes

-501 | | | =1330 =1365 =1367 =1370 =1457 =1466 =1469 -1497

-+-1499

-1501 =1503 +?1505 ✝

Adaptive Heap

=89 -=219 -346 -373 -377 -380 -382 ==501 =887 | | | =1374 =1397 =1398 =1499 ✝

Aeronaut/RC/Pers

-48

-+157

-346

+426

+433 +438 +501 +552 +552

=561

=593 =595 =663 -883 =937 |

-1118

+1151

| | =1351 =1359 =1362 =1374 =1499 ✝

The only time you interacted with Broseidon in a way that seemed like trying to sort him was in 552 where you wanted to know why he had you and not mafia in his untouchable list and wanted to know what is read on you was exactly. Your other interactions with him were just passing mentions/quoting things he said/responding to him, with the exception of your getting a night result on him that he's not an SK. Ignoring role interactions for now, what's your read on him? What do you think of his play? What do you think of the way he's interacted with other people? What questions can you ask him to get a better read on him?


You've had considerably more interactions with Not Mafia than with the other living players, and you've asked him various questions throughout the game and put pressure on him both with your words and with your vote. How do you feel about his responses to your pressure? You have role interactions related reasons to suspect him. When you take out the setup spec stuff and just look at his play, does that make you suspect him less or more?

You interacted with me a little bit more after you figured out who I was, but you haven't put very much pressure on me this game. Is there anything you need from me?


Your first mention of Davsto was in 501 where you voted him for saying that this game was a low priority for him. You weren't on his wagon on day 2 but you only had a couple posts that day phase. Instead, you were voting Rob. Did it bother you that you were sharing a wagon with Davsto? Did your "not an sk" result on Persivul affect your opinion of Davsto, who had been on Persivul's side of the Rob argument?


Why do you think Shiro was nightkilled?


You only had a couple interactions with Cheetory's slot before it died, and both of them were you scumhunting him. Why do you think he was nightkilled?


Your first reaction to Persivul claiming FBI agent in 561 is "I'm not sure I understand this. Is this a Doctor Who reference?" You checked him night 1 and learned he wasn't an SK, but your first post in Day 2 in which you mention him, 1118 is "I thought he claimed serial killer". Your next mention of him that day is that you think he's innocent and you vote Rob. Later on, when you claimed your role, you acknowledge in 1351 that not being an SK didn't clear him of being scum. Is this something you were aware of during day 2 as well?


I'm going to look at the others, too. I'm not your IC in this game (though none of us can lie about mafia theory without the others noticing and calling them on it so if at least two of us agree on some game theory point then it's probably true), but it's kind of hard to switch out of that mode of interacting, especially when you seem to be stuck but you're not doing anything to unstick yourself, so I'm hoping that some of these questions will help both of us (me with reading you, you with figuring out how you want to approach this mylo.)

--P

[KuroiXHF]

So I'll be able to take another look - hopefully Sunday but definitely Monday. Sorry, rougher day than expected at work. I do plan on giving this some thought.

[Plottin Kittehs]

i'm gonna need the weekend off too. head's a bit scrambled and i want to be able to give this my full attention.

--P

[BROseidon]

Plot, what exactly are you trying to figure out here? You're putting in a lot of effort for ~something~, but I can't really tell what that ~something~ is.

[BROseidon]

Also Mala being completely absent for this entire game is starting to really bug me.

[Plottin Kittehs]

Mala's gone back to school so she's been pretty busy. I haven't seen her in about a week. This is her last game before she takes a break from mafia, and she was hoping it'd finish before school started up again, but it didn't. I hope she does find some time for us but she's been pretty busy.

I just wanted to reread stuff to be sure. The only times i've voted wrong are the times i didn't reread everything carefully. I'm pretty sure though.

I don't really see a universe in which you're scum. I could make a towncase for you but i'm not feeling very wordy this weekend and I know it's not enough to just post numbers and say town:

broseidon 1516

Kuroi

+511 +==531 | ==1217 | | -1316 -1334 +1344 =1345 =1346 =1350 =1352 -1354 =1361 =1388 -1400 =1401 +1434 +1439 =1470

Not_Mafia

+511 +==531 | ==1217 | v1280 | -1316 v1333 =1346 -1356 -1369 =1388 =1400 -1506 -1516

Plottin Kittehs

-38 =40 +50 =109 +111 +511 +531 | =1114 +1195 | | =1315 =1348 =1388 =1411 =1412 =1414 +1435 -?=1450 =1464

---

Frozen Angel

=111 =506 +507 +511 +531 =532 =533 ✝

Shiro

=119 -==511 ✝

Davsto

-

v115

-116 -119 -508 -510 -511 | =1193 -v1194 -1217 -1240 -1246 -1248 -1258 -1259 -1262 -1263 ✝

Cheetory6/faq2

-==511 | +1195 ✝

Soren

-==511 | | ✝

Rob13

+508 +510 +511 +==531 +533 | =1193 =1213 +==1217 =1218

=+1221

| -?=1281 ✝

Aristophanes

-==511 =531 | +1195 =1217 | | =1315 -v1372 -1394 -1406 =1439 -1506 -1516 ✝

Adaptive Heap

=109 -505 -==511 | +1138 | | =1315 v1355 -1356 =1373 =1394 +1434 ✝

Aeronaut/RC/Pers

-40 -509 -510 -==511 -==533 | =1114 +1115 +1194 +1195 +1213 | | +1343 =1354 =1361 +1434 =1464 ✝

I just want to hear a little more from Kuroi before I vote.

--P

[BROseidon]

This game is ~slow~ now.

I'm still very happy with my not_maf vote. Night actions notwithstanding, I still feel very good about plot and reasonably decent about not_maf.

[BROseidon]

Although stalling out the day phase for an NL isn't really ~bad~ either.

[Not_Mafia]

Pordge

[KuroiXHF]

Before I move forward and go over everything, is it best for a NL? Since none of us are really clear, would it be best to cut us by one in order to increase our odds to lynch? Y'know, with MYLO, and all?

[Plottin Kittehs]

no lynch is only optimal if we don't have confirmed towns. If nobody is confirmed town, then we can learn something by who is killed and can examine their reads, or examine our own reads or something. But we don't get any real information when a confirmed townsperson is nightkilled because they weren't going to get lynched. No lynching wouldn't hurt, but it wouldn't really help either.

--P