Mini 1747: Cinnamon Roll Mafia Endgame

[toolenduso]

WOw1! Town read! Syndesis!

Do you mean this?

Just curious, is everyone here brand new?

Nope.

VOTE: swordsworth

for the waggins.

[toolenduso]

Ofc I mean it. Syndesis is ez town read. mMmm, good good, start the other wagon.

Still not sure whether you're being sarcastic.

If you're serious, do you have reasons?

[toolenduso]

to join a wagon

[toolenduso]

What's your stance on hawkleader3 right now?

true neutral

[toolenduso]

So his actions make him neither town nor scum for you?

Any thoughts on how Hawk's later posts? I have an opinion on them but would like to hear yours first to prevent introducing leading question bias.

I have a theory that the beginning of the game typically follows a pattern of events. The definitions of each event in that pattern are necessarily vague to allow for variations in the details, but my theory is that coming up with a model of early D1 in closed setups is entirely possible and that it will be accurate the majority of the time.

The basis for this concept is that up until a certain point in that pattern, the likelihood of finding scum based on their posts is going to be ridiculously small. Hawk hasn't reached a place in his posting yet that I would consider to be at all helpful in guessing at his alignment. So no opinions on him yet.

Put in a much simpler way: I don't see anything worth speculating on from Hawk yet. But we'll get there.

[toolenduso]

@dave and sword: what do you think of Moosy's #36?

[toolenduso]

Who looks most suspicious right now?

Sword, I guess. For an eager-to-please looking entrance.

But then there's his join date, which explains that entrance just as well as a scum role PM would.

Then there's the fact that we're in RVS, which also explains his entrance.

So yeah.

[toolenduso]

Just to clarify, you're referring to being in RVS at the time of the posts which are now being analyzed, right?

Yes.

Most would say that we're talking about motivations and analysis now, which would mean it isn't random any more -- though there may still be pockets of quirk.

Eh....I think we're straddling the line out of RVS a little bit. If you think of a wagon as having three votes or more then I

think

we've had an actual wagon or possibly even two so far, but I kinda feel like they weren't very serious wagons. Not even sure everybody has posted yet. And while Moosy has some conviction already, I do not.

[toolenduso]

whoa wagons are happening

Very much so, yes. Thoughts on Moosy specifically would be appreciated when you make your post.

[toolenduso]

and should we start the claims at L-2 or L-1?

Wasn't aware that people did it at L-2 as a rule. My vote's for L-1, that way scum doesn't get info on town PRs unless it's totally necessary to prevent town from lynching a PR.

[toolenduso]

Anyway, exactly what is scummy about having a chipper first post, Tool?

Not

chipper

, exactly...more like anxious-disguised-as-or-perhaps-mingled-with-excited. Like "oh man it's my first time playing scum better do a good job! I'm gonna open with a joke!"

Like I said, not exactly solid reasoning, but hey I was asked to give thoughts :/

Not game related: Also are you fine with being called Tool?

I will consult my brand manager and get back to you.

Spoiler:

No but seriously tool is fine. There are scummers who still call me tool irl.

[toolenduso]

Not

chipper

, exactly...more like anxious-disguised-as-or-perhaps-mingled-with-excited. Like "oh man it's my first time playing scum better do a good job! I'm gonna open with a joke!"

Examples: paulw in Newbie 1561 and bjc in Mini 1559.

[toolenduso]

On that note, how are you people's days going?

p good. you?

@TheCow: do you have any thoughts on moosy?

[toolenduso]

@toolenduso: do you have any thoughts on moosy?

I do! But I am not giving them out atm.

[toolenduso]

guys cmon hawk is not fakeclaiming. like what about this could possibly make you think he is fakeclaiming. please unvote.

and for future reference, town, here's the best way to do L-1:

1. Put a person at L-1.
2. Person does not claim.
3. IF somebody wants to hammer, they declare intent to hammer.
4. Person claims.

[toolenduso]

About moosy: I saw that he expressed conviction about something before it made sense to, so I decided to dangle him out as lynchbait and see if any scum hopped onto it. That required me to not express why I was asking people about moosy or the strategy wouldn't work.

As it is, it backfired because people just focused on why I was asking people about moosy instead and the only person to hop onto moosy is now a claimed pr.

Actual thoughts on moosy are that he looks somewhat town. Posts seem like genuine reactions -- if a little quick to judgment, his posts also don't seem to show too much concern for how he looks.

[toolenduso]

Wasn't aware that people did it at L-2 as a rule. My vote's for L-1, that way scum doesn't get info on town PRs unless it's totally necessary to prevent town from lynching a PR.

Look at above post (115) (well it was above when I started typing). Look at this post.

Voila! I'm confused.

Left it out because I feel like all of this is obvious -- didn't think to explain it in detail and assumed that people understood that you don't need to claim until a hammer is imminent. That is, after all, the intent behind waiting until L-1 -- to prevent revealing PR info unless it's totally necessary.

[toolenduso]

TheCow, ask yourself whether you think a scum player like hawk -- one who has admittedly not played in years and is therefore more or less a newb, would have a PR fakeclaim sitting around and ready to go this early in the game, and whether he would be actively waiting to post it.

Signs point to town PR, not fakeclaiming scum.

[toolenduso]

The gentleness of 66 sort of...contrasts with 115.

K.

[toolenduso]

Even put aside the possibility that hawk is lying about his claim, and just think about this. His claim is more likely than not going to be verified one way or another within the next day phase or two. We could get a counterclaim, or he could be NK'ed, or he could prevent a NK, or somebody could get a result on him, or so on and so forth. Him being NK'ed is probably the most likely.

So why lynch him?

[toolenduso]

Yeah my motive is not lynching a town PR.

Weren't there still people voting him?

[toolenduso]

Yeah dude there were still three people voting hawk when I wrote that, one of which (moosy) is still arguing for a wagon on him.

[toolenduso]

What if the doctor could save me?!

^or you could jail the scum performing the kill.

But, I see your reasons for lynching me.....

What? What valid reasons does he have?

Yes we should lynch hawk when he was un CC'd. Just the fact that Mafia will make him a target off the bat gives us more incentive to kill him ASAP.

What kind of ridiculous logic is that? Let's kill a town PR before scum can get to him?

Are you just trolling right now? Because come on, I get D1 isn't always the best, but we can at least try to lynch scum.

[toolenduso]

I really hope you're just trolling.

[toolenduso]

Moosy that strategy makes no sense. If he is scum fakeclaiming then leaving him alive means we might actually end up with a more clear indication that he's fakeclaiming, and then we lynch him. In the meantime we lynch somebody else, hopefully somebody who's scum. If he is town then lynching him means we've lynched a friggin' PR and we get no benefit from that PR at all.

I don't really expect you to listen to me because that doesn't seem to be your style, so how about we worry about this if anybody else is actually interested in lynching hawk.

Spoiler: ISO reads

hawk:

-Just going to skip this for now in the interest of saving time because especially this early in the game his claim preempts pretty much any other factor I could use to read him.

Soap:

-Main focus has been on me and my thing with moosy. In a surface-level way, this actually strikes me as town. When I was secretive about something in my last game, it was two townies who endlessly pushed me trying to get me to be more explicit.
-Nothing else other than that that seems alignment indicative.

FA:

-Second post (#95) he places hawk at L-1. Says hawk is trying to appease people and is ignoring mounting pressure on his slot.
-His response to hawk's claim does not address anything about the claim itself but rather continues to try to make hawk look bad. This seems scummy to me.
-Has a lot of posts where he's clearly trying to get people to talk more, which looks towny.
-Unvotes, I'm assuming because of my arguing, in #161.

Moosy:

-Expressed conviction waaay too early. Like, his second post. Then he has more conviction about more things before there's really too much of a basis for having that conviction (#30, #34, #36). I take this as more town-looking than scum, it genuinely looks like somebody who is bored with D1 and wants to try to have fun with it by being a troll.
-That also explains his cheeky response to me in #60, #61 and #62.
-The way he's doggedly sticking to his hawk vote despite multiple in-thread explanations for why this is a bad idea also seems like town...Moosy seems reckless and stubborn, and as scum it's much better to be flexible so you don't get scumread for stupid stuff.

TheCow:

-Starts doing a lot of work right off the bat, approaches the game with a drive to base reads on evidence. Tend to think this looks towny, but then it's something I do to guide my thoughts and make them look more town when I'm scum. There is one part where it looks kind of genuinely town though, and that's where he's asking hawk for his typing speed to see whether he had his claim typed up beforehand. Why this would impact his evaluation of hawk's claim I'm not sure, but TC obviously saw something behind it, and given some of the other stuff he's looked at (he did meta research and commented on a player's use of punctuation), it fits into his MO.
-He does put Hawk back at L-1 after the first person unvotes Hawk following the claim (#104), but then there were enough people who didn't immediately unvote Hawk following his claim that I don't think scum could explain all of them. Plus, you know, the unlikelihood of all three scum being on the first substantial wagon to form. So TC leans town for me.

Metrion:

-Null, only two posts and neither have anything substantial.

Sword:

-Obviously newbie, to the point where he doesn't know how to unvote. This needs to inform the read on him.
-I do think that basically preempts the scum explanation for his eager entrance to the game.
-It also makes me doubt the motivation behind posts like #47 and #97, where he seems to be looking for reasons to scumread people. Maybe this is just him learning to scumhunt.
-So null, basically.

ira:

-Also very newbish.
-#76 seems somewhat towny to me. He's exhibiting paranoia of a lot of different players and I kind of don't think such a new scum player would think to do fake pre-flip associatives.
-Posts like #77 and #158 demonstrate an openness to ira's thought process that strikes me as town as well.
-Interaction with hawk slot could come from scum, though. His vote on hawk in #76 put hawk at L-2, and his unvote was made in response to my urging people to unvote. It's kind of like I gave him an excuse to.

Chaotic:

-Nothing substantial, null.

Syndesis:

-Has a clearly self-doubting attitude about scumhunting, which I think looks towny. Some examples: in #105, asking if somebody thought it was a good idea to lynch a claimed PR, in #110 beginning a sentence by saying he doesn't like a post and then reversing and saying it's fine.
-Yeah it just seems like he's not very sure of himself, which I think he would be more self-conscious about as scum.

dave:

-Has several posts that kind of look like he's trying to interact with people to get them to look scummy but doesn't really want to draw attention to himself, as well as posts where he's just kind of interacting without giving thoughts on the game. Examples of the former would be #38, #42, #92 and #93. Examples of the latter include #37, #39 and #153.

Too few scumreads right now, which could be a product of scum being in {metrion, chaotic, sword}, but I expect this to improve as we go along.

Right now I think dave looks bad. May do some meta work on him, but only so as to find out whether he also posts like this as town...when I tried to look for patterns that could indicate scum or town in meta work in my last game, it didn't go so well.

VOTE: dave

[toolenduso]

sorry synd wrong pronouns :/

[toolenduso]

Swords is only a site-newbie, IIRC?

don't know, but his play seems newbish

[toolenduso]

This is anti-town to the point that it makes me wonder if you're a jester or something. (Normals can have a non-normal role)

They can have one role that's not on the "explicitly normal" list.

They cannot have any role that is on the "explicitly non-normal" list.

Jester is on the "explicitly non-normal" list: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game

[toolenduso]

dude can you just scumhunt plz

[toolenduso]

Syndesis (slightly town): ... Once I got over the fact that she wasn't scum

fact?

TheCow (slightly town): If he reads every scum victim like he reads me and studies me, this guy is for sure town!

What do you mean by "scum victim"?

[toolenduso]

Everyone who he sees as scum and comes within L-3.

OK then I don't understand what he's doing with "scum victims" that you see as town, could you explain?

[toolenduso]

activating "ignore moosy until D2" mode.

[toolenduso]

Are you talking to me or hawk? Because I'm not scumreading moosy.

[toolenduso]

^agreed.

Anybody? Thoughts on dave?

dave:

-Has several posts that kind of look like he's trying to interact with people to get them to look scummy but doesn't really want to draw attention to himself, as well as posts where he's just kind of interacting without giving thoughts on the game. Examples of the former would be #38, #42, #92 and #93. Examples of the latter include #37, #39 and #153.

@FA: Are you scumreading anybody?

[toolenduso]

OK, how is he scummy?

[toolenduso]

To get this out of the way: my phrasing in my ISO read on dave wasn't the greatest. I said he was trying to make people look scummy -- more like "hint that people might be scum in order to undermine townreads."

I know a couple people who can act exactly like Syndesis as scum. Though I do agree it's fairly rare.

Moosy gives Syndesis a town read, and is questioned on it. His reasons for the town read are "he thinks like me" and "he pushes his thoughts".
My reply is an observation that these are not good reasons to town read someone, because I have seen scum do these things very effectively.
I get the feeling that you are trying to read something into what I said, that I think Syndesis is scum? Or do you think I'm trying to paint Moosy as scum?

I think you're sowing seeds of doubt: "I know you're townreading this person, but maybe don't."

Please explain yours, especially since your reason is "might as well".

How exactly is this "trying to get Moosy to look scummy without drawing attention to myself"? I am calling attention to something that is scummy, not trying to make it look scummy.

It looks like it could be you, as scum, trying to goad a player who is clearly expressing conviction before it makes sense to trip over themselves trying to explain that conviction.

Calling attention to something that is scummy is the same thing as trying to make something look scummy. The action is not scummy simply by its nature -- other players have to evaluate it and decide whether it's scummy. So it's not like you've found something that is red and you're calling out to people and saying "hey here's something that's red." It's more like you've found something that you think is bad, and you're trying to get that thing to demonstrate why it's bad.

This is not the best example in my list, but it fits in with the overall theme.

How is "might as well" a valid reason for voting someone?

It isn't. I wasn't challenging that.

How is asking someone for reasons while giving none yourself anything but scummy and hypocritical?

Hypocritical, sure. Scummy...meh. People can have lots of reasons for not explaining themselves. Just look at ABR.

Maybe you'd rather I just pound the table and yell "that's scummy"?

That would be endlessly entertaining.

What do you think about Swordsworth's entrance, does it make him likely to be scum-aligned or town-aligned?

The userid is new, created specifically to sign up for this game, if you look at the join date and date of first post. It's possible that he's from another site drawn here by this game. It's also possible that it's an "alt" userid of an experienced player, trying to appear new by not knowing custom. In either case, I'd have to say it's not alignment indicative. For the brand new user, there is no site background, and acting new is how you build an alt when you don't want people to catch on to your main id, regardless of what alignment you get in your first game.

I don't agree with reading newness like this as town "because scum would be afraid to act that way". True new players won't know what is scummy, so won't know what to avoid.

You lumped this in with interacting with people to make them look scummy. Who am I trying to paint as scum here?

Sword. But again, it's more like casting doubt.

I say that Swordsworth's entrance is not alignment indicative, which is certainly not painting him as scum. My position disagrees with iraonavp's town read but says nothing about his alignment either.

Right. So it doesn't exactly push him as being scum, but it muddles up townreads.

[toolenduso]

Your utter inability to understand what I'm saying might be because you're town.

I'll have to consider that a little further though.

[toolenduso]

Ah got it. That erases the argument for you being town then.

To point out the obvious: you saying that your motivation is not what I think it is doesn't mean anything if you're scum.

[toolenduso]

It sure could, from the point of view of somebody who is town and not me.

Aren't factual statements fun?

[toolenduso]

Your utter inability to understand what I'm saying might be because you're town.

I'll have to consider that a little further though.

I do not exactly understand this perspective. In this example, how would davesaz's utter inability to understand what you're saying make him more likely to be town-aligned?

I would think that town-aligned players could misunderstand as easily as scum-aligned players, and I'm not sure if your post was some kind of offhand and sarcastic comment.

I was proposing a scum explanation for his actions: that he was trying to undermine people's townreads and make people look scummy so that they could be mislynched, as opposed to genuinely scumhunting.

When he replied to it, his response was something like: "like that doesn't even make sense because my motivation was to find scum."

In other words, he gave a town explanation as an alternative to my scum explanation. But he did it in such a way that it looked like he couldn't see things from my perspective at all -- instead of considering what his actions would look like from the point of view of somebody who doesn't know whether he's town (me), he seemed only capable of considering his actions from the point of view of somebody who knows he's town. That only makes sense if he's town.

But then he said that he did understand my arguments, which kind of contradicts my theory.

I've been thinking about it some more, though, and I'm starting to feel like the underlying point might still stand on its own -- that dave has displayed the perspective of somebody who knows they're town (as opposed to trying to convince others they're town).

I wanna go through his ISO once more I think.

[toolenduso]

We've had a good amount of fireworks with the Hawk runup and claim. I think we should be looking for subtle opportunism getting onto that wagon.

Let me know if you find anything here btw. Unfortunately at least half of the votes on that wagon weren't serious, so I'm not sure whether it'll actually yield anything but I'm interested to see if you find anything that hasn't been highlighted yet.

[toolenduso]

Yeah #262 from dave does demonstrate what looks to me like a towny mindset.

Want to take a look at some of the more recent votes that have happened.

I think it was Synd that mentioned feeling adrift -- I think most people are in this game right now. It seems like everybody has been waiting for everybody else to do stuff, which partially explains Moosy's behavior I think. But it might be something useful to keep in mind when scumhunting -- perhaps scum have been inactive (Birdy) or hesitant to jump on any wagons.

[toolenduso]

Chaotic does look objectively scummy -- Moosy is, and has been since the beginning of the game, lynchbait. I tried to use him as such (nobody bit but hawk). And here's Chaotic pushing Moosy but never actually voting him. He also says I look scummy and never votes me. The activity is minimal and his vote is still where it was in RVS. He's aware of this, as #300 shows. The lack of activity also fits in with my theory that town is at a standstill right now partially because scum haven't been very active.

I'm also worried about FA at this point, and his vote for Chaotic makes me hesitant because I don't think it would make sense for scum to bus their partner right now -- so if one of them is scum, I think the other is town.

The reasons I'm hesitant about FA are:

-His vote on hawk in #95, which put hawk at L-1 (note: L-1 is not necessarily a scummy place to be, it's more that he was willing to push hawk that far based on what seems like thin reasoning.) (scum explanation: looking for an easily-justified vote)
-He posts a few times kind of trying to continue to justify his vote on hawk after the claim, but then unvotes hawk in #161 after I start arguing that the claim invalidates the wagon. (scum explanation: not wanting to let go of an easy mislynch, balking in the face of an unexpected move from town, then the unvote because he thinks he's going to start looking really bad if he stays on the hawk wagon)
-The vote on Chaotic in #303. (scum explanation: going for lynchbait)

As I said in my ISO reads though, there are a few things that look like FA trying to get reactions/get people to talk more/scum hunt in his ISO. So not sure yet which one is a better vote.

[toolenduso]

Or you're blatantly defending scum in an effort to look town.

I'm defending scum...to look town? What?

But it should be obvious if he gets lynched that I was one of the main people pushing that wagon - I'm not going to magically be free of responsibility when he flips just because I wasn't voting him.

"Free of responsibility" is the kind of wording you would use when indicating that you would be in trouble. Which implies that moosy would be flipping town, no?

Infact if he flips scum I'm sure someone (you) is going to argue I was bussing.

This makes no sense. First, I don't get why scum would bus in this situation. Second, I don't believe I've indicated that I think you're bussing scum so I don't know why you would assume that I would push that if Moosy flipped scum.

VOTE: Chaotic

P-Edit: Oh hey lolbabe, I think we played together once.

[toolenduso]

Has your read on FA changed? Why vote dave? What do you think of Chaotic?

[toolenduso]

Syndesis giving me town vibes. Does not appear to be concerned about how she's coming across at all.

[toolenduso]

Would just like to highlight this.

But it should be obvious if he gets lynched that I was one of the main people pushing that wagon - I'm not going to magically be free of responsibility when he flips just because I wasn't voting him.

"Free of responsibility" is the kind of wording you would use when indicating that you would be in trouble. Which implies that moosy would be flipping town, no?

[toolenduso]

"Free of responsibility" is the kind of wording you would use when indicating that you would be in trouble. Which implies that moosy would be flipping town, no?

Responsibility boils down to, at the flip, whatever his alignment is, the people on the wagon will typically answer to it. The general idea being that whoever votes for the person being lynched has a higher chance of being scum because a) they're bussing for town cred, or b) they're aiding in a mislynch.

I do not follow your logic here. If you're on a mislynch, you look scummy. If you're on a scum lynch, you look scummy. So everybody looks scummy if they're involved in a lynch?

You should know that. You do know that.

You've demonstrated multiple times now that your reactionary tendencies in this game prevent you from understanding my thought process.

I am, however, realizing how hard you're trying to get me lynched, misrepresenting anything and everything I say behind the guise of scumhunting.

Close! You look scummy and therefore I am pushing you.

Yup, lots of accusations of scumminess, not a lot of good articulate reasons. Matched with the activity level of a koala. Legendary game underway here.

I'd like at least Iraonavp to post more, it's not fair to put on your theatrics then leave the audience waiting.

Bookmarked for later.

It looks like he didn't fully get Tool's inference that he scum slipped by assuming Moosy would flip town, or at least didn't answer that explicitly instead droning on about why scum go on lynches.

"Droning on" = two sentences.

Also, him not understanding my point does not make him town. It might mean that it wasn't a scumslip, which I can kind of buy since he said in a previous post that I would accuse him of bussing his partner if Moosy flipped scum.

But the scumminess of his posts extends beyond the bit about being responsible for Moosy's theoretical lynch.

The inference itself was garbage

Spoiler: Oh yeah?

because the scenario painted that he was responded to was that Moosy was "lynchbait" and that's how I expected a scum response to be because they'd most likely be full well aware of that.

Or maybe he genuinely didn't get it.

Please replace the pronouns with acronyms, I don't quite understand what you're saying.

[toolenduso]

Please replace the pronouns with acronyms, I don't quite understand what you're saying.

And by "acronyms" I mean "usernames."

[toolenduso]

Also would like to point this out:

Day 1 ends: (expired on 2015-12-27 23:20:59)

We don't have a ton of time left this day phase, plus there's a holiday coming up so people will probably be even less active starting Thursday. In the last game I was in, town waited until the day before deadline to start doing stuff in earnest and what happened was that they ran somebody up to L-1, he claimed a PR, they unvoted and then we ran up another person to L-1, and he claimed PR in the middle of the night when nobody was on and then somebody hammered him anyway because at that point it was between him and a no lynch.

So, uh, let's get something going?

[toolenduso]

it's a closed setup, which means we don't get that info. but in 13-player mini normals it's usually a safe bet that there are 10 town and 3 scum.

there are also games where there are two factions of scum with 2 players each versus 9 town, and setups where there are 3 scum/1 serial killer/9 town or 2 scum/1 serial killer/10 town.

but it's usually 10 town versus 3 scum.

[toolenduso]

V/LA until Sunday, 12/27/15.

I am usually able to post a bit while off traveling for holiday stuff but it might not be once every 48 hours.

Have skimmed most recent posting; nothing changes my mind on chaotic.

[toolenduso]

Lolbabe chaotic is still the leading wagon

[toolenduso]

Little over a day left before deadline. Still not back from my Christmas trip yet but things are quiet right now (and may stay that way for the rest of the day) so I have time to post.

I could compromise on FA. #412 does look bad to me, basically for the reasons ira laid out in #417.

[toolenduso]

@Soap

: What are your thoughts on Chaotic?

[toolenduso]

^is there anybody you wouldn't lynch? If yes, who? If no, who would be your least preferred lynch (other than yourself)?

[toolenduso]

what in the actual fuck.

why did hawk fakeclaim

and please don't let it be multiball

[toolenduso]

Agreed, synd. But there are other possibilities, including multiball and SK. Multiball would have to be werewolves since Chaotic's mafia faction was just called "mafia" and not "___ mafia."

Anyway....here's the wagon analysis I did during the night. It's based on Chaotic's faction being the only anti-town faction in the game, so very subject to change should anything come to light that suggests otherwise. Removed sword and hawk because they flipped:

Spoiler: Chaotic Neutrality wagon

-Syndesis #6, L-6 (RVS), switch to hawk in #12, L-7
-FA #303, L-6
-Tool #314, L-5
-Synd #338, L-4, switch to FA in #379, L-4
-Hawk #345, L-3
-dave #431, L-3
-soap #451, L-2
-synd #460, L-1
-sword #461, L-0

FA: OK so FA looks pretty friggin' town here because he actually started the wagon and stuck to it as we approached deadline with nothing else going on. As I've said before, it didn't really look like bussing.

Synd: Synd's switch to FA and redirection to the CN wagon when it became apparent that that was the lynch looks somewhat scumpartner-y. But Syndesis overall looks town.

Dave: Dave might look bad if it weren't for the context surrounding his L-3 vote. At the time, syndesis had hopped off of CN and onto FA. CN and FA had the same number of votes on them and dave agreed that FA looked scummy. So for hypothetical purposes, if dave were scum with CN and FA is town, that would mean that scumdave looked at two wagons with equal momentum and chose to push his partner over a townie. Doesn't make sense. On top of that dave looks town for other reasons which I've gone into before.

Soap: Soap's vote comes soon after dave's vote, and at the time CN and FA were again tied for number of votes (because CN voted FA). It also came after I specifically asked soap for his thoughts on CN. My initial thought was that soap's vote looked the most like bussing scum because of the timing, but CN's vote on FA puts that in doubt a little bit because that meant soap was, at least by pure numbers, in the same position that dave was in when dave voted on CN. However, Soap wasn't posting very frequently in the week leading up to deadline (bc Christmas) and it's possible he wasn't paying a ton of attention to the voting/VCs. Simply by process of elimination, Soap looks like the best candidate for bussing scum on the wagon. If we eliminate him and he flips town, I think I could accept the possibility that it was an all-town wagon that lynched CN.

Spoiler: FA_Q2 wagon

-Synd #139, L-6, switches to dave in #318, L-7
-ira #189, L-5, unvotes in #231, L-6
-lolbabe #378, L-6
-Synd #379, L-5, switches to CN in #460, L-5
-ira #415, L-4
-Chaotic #447, L-3

Synd: OK this side of things continues to make Syndesis look bad. The vote in #139 doesn't really mean much, I could see that coming from a partner or a townie, but the fact that she revoted FA one post after lolbabe decided to revive the FA wagon is a little suspicious given that FA was the only other wagon that looked like it might succeed besides CN's wagon. I'm going to want to take another look at Syndesis's ISO and see how I feel about this.

ira: ira's arc also makes him look like a potential partner to CN. He follows syndesis onto the FA wagon but unvotes when FA questions him a little, perhaps like scum who lack true conviction in a wagon they know is on town. When he revotes FA, it's at a time when it wasn't yet clear that CN was the day's likely lynch. In other words, ira helped push momentum toward the FA wagon that I now believe was likely on town. ira did start saying in #434 that he would lynch anybody, including CN, and I believe this actually supports the case that ira is a partner. #434 was just after dave pushed the CN wagon closer to being the day's lynch (but before CN put FA's wagon equal with his own again) and looks like scum giving themselves the ability to bus if need be.

lolbabe: lolbabe was also in a place that looks like it could be scum pushing a counterwagon to partnerCN, but I will point out that she appears pretty open about the possibility that CN is scum. She says CN looks like town in the post she votes FA (#378), but then pushes CN some in #401, #452 and #453. The first of those, #401, was while the FA wagon was still neck-and-neck with the CN wagon. So that works in favor of lolbabe being town, though she could just be a good scum player.

Everyone else, plus an ISO read on Synd:

Metrion: Metrion's only vote was an RVS vote on the Cow. He unvoted in his second post and never voted again. He wasn't too active during that time, and holy crap does his arc look like a scum partner to CN. Literally half his posts come after I begin pushing CN, and the bulk of that is defending CN/his read on CN. It's always a relatively soft defense (look at the question mark in #334), and after I push back on it he begins to distance himself from the read ever so slightly. But he never goes so far as to abandon his townread on CN. His last post came before dave pushed the CN wagon toward becoming the day's lynch, so we never got to see how his attitude on CN would have changed (or not changed) given the town momentum, but given the slow build and compromise-y nature of the CN lynch, it would make sense for at least one of the scum partners to have been MIA as momentum swung CN's way.His defense of CN was, imo, shallow. I bookmarked a couple snippets from Metrion's defense in case CN flipped scum because even at the time I thought Metrion's defense of CN looked weird. Even as he was defending CN, he was trying to put some focus on other players, like ira. The "droning on" thing I highlighted because it looked like Metrion was reaching to support his conclusion that CN looked towny. It looked like he was grabbing for anything to support his conclusion, which is what you do when you want to arrive at a certain conclusion instead of trying to arrive at the conclusion that truly makes the most sense. I think #346 looks bad as well; he's trying to slow down momentum toward lynching CN by saying that we have five days left -- ignoring the fact that those days made up the week of Christmas, which I had already pointed out. Right now Metrion looks like by far the best candidate for a D2 lynch.

Moosy: It's tough to tell whether Moosy's end-of-day vote on ira was serious or not. He was clearly not taking D1 seriously, and the post in which he voted ira involved him voting every single player including himself. So maybe he did it just to be silly but intentionally made ira the last person he voted for, or maybe ira just happened to be the last person he put on his vote ladder and therefore it was more like another RVS vote. One could argue that his nonchalant and silly attitude on D1 came from scum wanting to absolve himself of any attachment to anything that happened during the day, therefore ensuring that he would live on to D2, but I don't really buy that when I weigh it against the desire to protect your partner (who became the lynch candidate and was under pressure for a good chunk of the day). It's worth noting that Moosy mentions CN in two of the posts where he actually put in some effort, #293 and #312. In the first he leans toward CN being town but says that may change. Looks like genuinely trying to sort CN imo. In the second he says that CN is "probably scum tbh." So even though it's possible Moosy is a partner, I think there are much better candidates to look at right now.

TheCow: Again, the arc with hawk ends with Cow looking town imo. He naked votes me in #269 and declines to say why when asked. For the whole week leading up to Christmas/deadline, he really didn't do anything. This also kind of fits in with my theory from my Metrion analysis above -- that at least one of the scum partners was inactive close to deadline, which is why the CN wagon built like it did -- but again I don't necessarily buy that that's true when Metrion looks much more like scum than Cow and it also makes a lot of sense that at least one partner would be on the FA counterwagon.

Synd: You know what, the tone of Syndesis's posts throughout the game, especially earlier in the day, support the town explanation for her voting pattern re: FA and CN. She plays lighthearted and switches her vote around a lot and votes people to see how they'll react (as opposed to having a ton of conviction behind votes). At one point she says she feels adrift. That explains, from a town perspective, why she switched around from FA to CN, and why some of it looks like it's at times that would be convenient for scum. I'm comfortable keeping Synd out of the scum pool for now.

Spoiler: Chaotic's interactions

-His first real reads are given in #253, where he says moosy and I look scummy. This is further evidence for moosy being town, I think -- moosy was the low-hanging fruit for scum to chase, and the usual narrative is for scum to look for low-hanging fruit to push a mislynch. Plus it was early in the day, so why bus? Not to mention #311, which can now be read with a bit more confidence as Chaotic knowing that moosy would flip town if lynched.
-The vote on FA in #447 could be read as scum bussing to distance themselves from a buddy because they know that they are going to be lynched, but meh.

Reads list

Town:

-FA
-dave

Null-town:

-moosy
-synd
-thecow

Null:

-

Null-scum:

-lolbabe
-soap
-ira

Scum:

-metrion

VOTE: metrion

[toolenduso]

Also, ira is the second-scummiest-looking player IMO, but if metrion did flip scum and we only have one kill tomorrow night (thus suggesting a one-shot kill and not multiball), I would be more inclined to call ira town because of his pushing of metrion.

[toolenduso]

Swords was probs a vig shot. Mafia couldn't have seen him as a NK, and NK has no reason to hunt a quickhammerer like that.

This is a good point, but it doesn't take into account the possibility of an SK. SK has somewhat of a motivation to kill scum at night (so that scum can't kill them, barring the SK also being BP of course), so in that sense sword might have made sense as an SK kill.

Thinking that if there is a vig it might be better for them not to claim (unless they are run up to L-1). That way scum doesn't know if that vig has any shots left and can't know who to kill tonight.

[toolenduso]

aw crap i messed up the spoiler tags.

Anyway, here's my reasoning for Metrion in isolation:

Metrion's only vote was an RVS vote on the Cow. He unvoted in his second post and never voted again. He wasn't too active during that time, and holy crap does his arc look like a scum partner to CN. Literally half his posts come after I begin pushing CN, and the bulk of that is defending CN/his read on CN. It's always a relatively soft defense (look at the question mark in #334), and after I push back on it he begins to distance himself from the read ever so slightly. But he never goes so far as to abandon his townread on CN. His last post came before dave pushed the CN wagon toward becoming the day's lynch, so we never got to see how his attitude on CN would have changed (or not changed) given the town momentum, but given the slow build and compromise-y nature of the CN lynch, it would make sense for at least one of the scum partners to have been MIA as momentum swung CN's way.His defense of CN was, imo, shallow. I bookmarked a couple snippets from Metrion's defense in case CN flipped scum because even at the time I thought Metrion's defense of CN looked weird. Even as he was defending CN, he was trying to put some focus on other players, like ira. The "droning on" thing I highlighted because it looked like Metrion was reaching to support his conclusion that CN looked towny. It looked like he was grabbing for anything to support his conclusion, which is what you do when you want to arrive at a certain conclusion instead of trying to arrive at the conclusion that truly makes the most sense. I think #346 looks bad as well; he's trying to slow down momentum toward lynching CN by saying that we have five days left -- ignoring the fact that those days made up the week of Christmas, which I had already pointed out. Right now Metrion looks like by far the best candidate for a D2 lynch.

[toolenduso]

So you're saying serial killer would have no reason to kill somebody who quick hammered?

Maybe...idk. Like I said, people were hesitant about sword so it's conceivable that SK thought he might be scum. Personally I thought he looked town af after his reaction to his own accidental hammer, but yeah.

I mean I do kind of feel like vig makes the most sense now that we've talked about it some, but I guess I don't want to assume wholeheartedly that that's the case? Guess we probably won't know until at least the next day phase.

[toolenduso]

but i wanna kill metrion nowwwwwww

[toolenduso]

Droning, to speak tediously about something. I'm unsure of how this connects your point

Because use of the word doesn't really hold up to scrutiny, which supports the theory that you had a conclusion you wanted to arrive at instead of wanting to arrive at the correct conclusion.

and using "weird" to describe things isn't exactly informative.

That's why I followed it up with specific examples, including use of the phrase "droning on" to refer to two sentences.

If I was looking to grab anything then that was rather convenient that I was only commenting on his most recent post and not cherry picking.

There's more than one way to pick a cherry. You can either comb through a player's ISO, looking for snippets that support the conclusion you're trying to reach, or you can take whatever's right in front of you and use that.

Tool mentioned 293 was Moosy saying that he was leaning town on CN but his thoughts were changing. Moosy was actually talking about Iraonavp not CN in that post, and it seems like Moosy was always leaning scum on CN.

Ah yep, you're right. He talked about CN then switched to ira in the same paragraph. So Moosy's only mention of CN in #293, then, is Moosy saying that CN is soft pushing and trying to get people to give him reasons to vote. So that does push Moosy a bit further away from the town side of the spectrum, but still would put him somewhere in the null-town range I think.

[toolenduso]

I also want to point out that CN was a very probable lynch so I doubt his buddy defended him really much so we should look among those who were uncertain about him, placed their vote on someone else or did not vote at all.

But that's the thing -- the wagon on CN was super slow-building throughout the day and it wasn't really clear that he was going to be the lynch until the last page or two before deadline. The last three votes on the wagon were all on the page he was lynched on. That's why I think it would actually make sense for at least one partner to have defended him and tried to get town to go in another direction. That points to you, ira and metrion.

[toolenduso]

Droning, to speak tediously about something. I'm unsure of how this connects your point

Because use of the word doesn't really hold up to scrutiny, which supports the theory that you had a conclusion you wanted to arrive at instead of wanting to arrive at the correct conclusion.

Except it does?

Naw, bruv.

Especially because focusing on "droning on" is getting away from any real argument that could be useful, considering the point is that he didn't respond to the question in the manor I thought scum would. That's the point I was making, if you want to argue that whether or not that CN was droning according to your definition changes the fact that he didn't respond according to how I thought then you can go ahead and push that.

You can call that "the point" of the argument if you want, but "the point" is defined by what is useful and I still think I've found something useful in your choice of wording ("droning on").

As to your explanation for townreading CN, I mean, OK. If you're town then that's cool I guess. If you're scum then it's BS. But it doesn't do much for me in the way of determining your alignment.

Honestly I think switching from town to scum is scummier than sticking with scum through it. Seems more likely that scum would try to fit in like that and adjust their reads accordingly. Why do you think that pushes them further away from being town?

My original point was that moosy looked town because I thought post #293 demonstrated that he was genuinely trying to sort CN. The "trying to sort" part was built on him taking CN from more of a town place to more of a scum place.

Turns out that didn't happen, so my point disappears. It's like, it takes away from the arguments for moosy being town without adding any reasons for him being scum.

[toolenduso]

Aw man we're all splinter-y again. Well...it worked last time, I guess?

I want to target this dave vote because I'm pretty sure he's town.

[toolenduso]

Aw man we're all splinter-y again.

Clarify?

There's no clear front-running wagon, just a lot of people voting different wagons.

davesaz seems more scummy the more I look at him

I'd like to hear your thoughts on my analysis of dave: that he played a big role in lynching CN because at the time he voted CN, CN's wagon had the same number of votes as FA. And if FA is town, then in order for dave to be scum he would have had to look at a wagon on town that was equal with a wagon on his partner and choose to lynch his partner instead of the townie.

1) He's literally only voted twice

Meh. I don't see why this is more scum than town.

2) Most of his posts are just questions and not much else

IMO this demonstrates scumhunting.

3) When he actually goes into any real analysis, it's generally when he's defending himself or something he's said with the CN wagon being the exception

Spoiler: Examples of dave's analysis not related to defending himself or the CN wagon

What do you think about Swordsworth's entrance, does it make him likely to be scum-aligned or town-aligned?

The userid is new, created specifically to sign up for this game, if you look at the join date and date of first post. It's possible that he's from another site drawn here by this game. It's also possible that it's an "alt" userid of an experienced player, trying to appear new by not knowing custom. In either case, I'd have to say it's not alignment indicative. For the brand new user, there is no site background, and acting new is how you build an alt when you don't want people to catch on to your main id, regardless of what alignment you get in your first game.

I don't agree with reading newness like this as town "because scum would be afraid to act that way". True new players won't know what is scummy, so won't know what to avoid.

Swords feels like an experienced player who needs to look newb due to join date, mixed with genuinely not knowing site meta. I see it as slightly scummy, since scum are the ones who need to know how to act. There is another possible interpretation but I won't bring it up now because discussing it is antitown.

On the surface it would seem Moosy would have to be town, because there is the assumption that scum would not risk going all in like that on a clearly unpopular position. If Hawk flipped scum, Moosy might be able to ride that to a nearly confirmed town status. It's a little similar to the way my partner got town cred in one of my scum games. Too early to do associations, but the two of them being scumbuddies is something to guard against.

We've had a good amount of fireworks with the Hawk runup and claim. I think we should be looking for subtle opportunism getting onto that wagon.

Let me know if you find anything here btw. Unfortunately at least half of the votes on that wagon weren't serious, so I'm not sure whether it'll actually yield anything but I'm interested to see if you find anything that hasn't been highlighted yet.

hawkleader3 - (6) Davesaz, Syndesis, Swordsworth, MoosyDoosy, iraonavp, FA_Q2 L-1

My vote was RVS.
Syndesis was a naked vote, followed up with "caught scum please sheep" after Hawk replied to it.
Swordsworth piles on with a comment that claims it's RVS, but then says he doesn't understand
MoosyDoosy comes on with the "might as well" post and asks Swordsworth for a explanation
iraonavp's vote had a reason.
FA_Q2 - vote has a reason and I have no reason to suspect

Syndesis vote had all the hallmarks of a reaction test, and iraonavp and FA_Q2 both gave concrete reasoning. If there is scum my bet is on Swordsworth or MoosyDoosy.

Reviewing FA-Q2 ISO. The only thing I saw that was at all scummy was one I pointed out already, where a question would have been a better response to the "it's inevitable" post.
I'd say more town than scum. Here are some examples with my thoughts.

That makes no sense. Scum can make up reasons just as easily as town could, and they'll often look better because they're paying attention to how people read them.

Placement of the votes and motivation matter a hundred times more than reason.

I don't like this post one bit.

You cast doubt on Dave's statement but fail to complete your statement. If placement mattered so much more then why did you not bother to address those that jumped on where you consider scummy placement? I would also state you are completely incorrect. Placement matters but scum can just as easily manipulate that as they can come up with reasoning. Reasoning is a powerful tool for town - as the game rolls on scum tend to reveal themselves with inconsistent reasoning and in the motivations behind those reasons.

Calls out CN for casting doubt on my assertion that "reasons" is townier than "no reasons" but not following through with the thought that placement matters.

bored with my current vote so

VOTE: davesaz

Is that your only reason to change votes?

What do you man by 'feelings' for dave? I don't really see where dave has been scummy.

Scum are more likely to let a meaningless vote slide, where town are more likely to question it. Though it would not be impossible for scum wanting to look town to make a post like this.

I'm sorry I'm not in logical mode right now!

not

I really just have no idea what I'm doing in this game anymore except kind of flailing.

Another attempt at reads incoming.

Not really liking these posts. Syndesis votes me and then places some reasoning for that vote. The instant that it is pointed out that the reasoning is rather vapid, they run from those statements. It feels very appeasey to me in general.

Scum tend to not make a big deal of it when they are unvoted. Town tend to question it more because they want to distinguish the scum voting them from the town voting them.

Looking next at toolenduso, I didn't really have an opinion until he tried to push me for casting doubt. That whole exchange seems very townie to me. He went into a lot more detail than I'd expect from scum, and stuck with it when I came back strong. I would have expected scum to break off when I said I understood his push but disagreed, and would also have expected a stronger reaction to the soft "maybe you're scum for still pushing". Then he looks into background and comes around on his own, where scum would have let it die down and keep the justification for a future mislynch attempt.

Stopped looking at the end of D1 but there are more in D2.

4) His vote on CN is very likely to be bussing scum I feel. 427 is a very brief explanation of CN's scumminess, and then 428 and 431 are going into why the people

on CN's wagon are town

, which seems rather, appeasy, for lack of a better word

Again, I'd like to hear your thoughts on the VC when dave made his vote: CN and FA had the same number of votes, and dave voted scum.

[toolenduso]

Only reason why he would know CN was going to claim was if they meditated between each other in the scum chat that CN would claim if it looked like he would be hammered.

Claim (verb): To purport publicly in-thread, either truthfully or falsely, to have a certain role.

Ex.: "I am a VT." "I am a cop." "I am a PR."

I'm assuming that you thought "claim" only referred to claiming a PR because otherwise there is a very simple explanation for ira thinking that CN would claim at L-1: We all talked about why people should claim at L-1 early on D1.

I have a theory that the beginning of the game typically follows a pattern of events. The definitions of each event in that pattern are necessarily vague to allow for variations in the details, but my theory is that coming up with a model of early D1 in closed setups is entirely possible and that it will be accurate the majority of the time.

The basis for this concept is that up until a certain point in that pattern, the likelihood of finding scum based on their posts is going to be ridiculously small. Hawk hasn't reached a place in his posting yet that I would consider to be at all helpful in guessing at his alignment. So no opinions on him yet.

Put in a much simpler way: I don't see anything worth speculating on from Hawk yet. But we'll get there.

So how's this going for ya?

Started gathering up mini normals to get baselines for what that pattern might look like; realized it was a lot of effort and stopped.

But hawk flipped town and I was right about CN so. A little past needing this in this game.

Will try to respond to Metrion and FA later today.

[toolenduso]

You're saying because "droning on" doesn't fit with your definitions of the word then that makes my argument bunk because it's reaching, no?

No, that is not what I'm saying. I'm saying there's your overall argument, which is "he didn't respond in the way I thought scum would" and then there's the specific phrase "droning on."

I don't care about the overall argument. The overall argument can stand or fall on its own for all I care. What I care about is the use of the phrase "droning on," which is included almost as a kind of throwaway in #334:

Spoiler: #334, emphasis added

Chaotic may seem a bit more Town after that last post? It looks like he didn't fully get Tool's inference that he scum slipped by assuming Moosy would flip town, or at least didn't answer that explicitly

instead droning on about why scum go on lynches

. The inference itself was garbage because the scenario painted that he was responded to was that Moosy was "lynchbait" and that's how I expected a scum response to be because they'd most likely be full well aware of that.

Or maybe he genuinely didn't get it.

If we remove the last part of the sentence -- "...instead droning on about why scum go on lynches" -- then your point does not change. In essence, the part I just highlighted was unnecessary to the argument. But you did include it, and the wording makes me feel like you deliberately packaged it as being slightly negative ("droning on") because CN is your partner.

That is my theory. Sorry if I didn't explain it clearly enough before.

So a town read flipping scum actually reinforced your original scum read?

I find this very scummy as scum have a reason to avoid looking inconstant. A scum flip on a town read *should* cause you to re-evaluate your original positions, not entrench them. Point out those soft defense posts you infer about. I believe this is the first time you mention them.

...

Here you are claiming that one of your scum picks (me) is a 'compromise lynch' which is a false claim IMHO. You labeled me as scum - not as a maybe. I notice that you did not even include any maybes in your statement. You cannot compromise by lynching one of your top scum picks. It really looks like you were positioning yourself for my flip. Considering you were pushing for me at the end I certainly do not see your vote on my wagon as a 'compromise.'

These are good points.

[toolenduso]

What do you think of iraonavp though? Moosy made other points besides the claim one.

Going into today I thought that ira looked second-scummiest after Metrion, while acknowledging that a scumflip from Metrion might mean ira is town (because of ira's pushing of Metrion while the CN wagon was building). Now I am thinking ira is looking scummier than before, in no small part because of FA. I don't know if ira looks worse than Metrion, so I want to spend some time thinking about that next.

As for Moosy's other points, I don't find them as convincing as FA's points about ira.

[toolenduso]

I'm having trouble remembering why folks think Metrion is scum.

Here

[toolenduso]

Huh. I just realized that I'm more or less townreading everybody on the ira wagon.

Hello rasky wasky. The wagon on ira is mostly about him pushing a counterwagon to the D1 lynch, who flipped scum.

[toolenduso]

Eh...I could get into the details of the back and forth between FA and ira but it wouldn't amount to much at this point. Ira's responses give me the town explanations for his actions and I can see them being true just like I can see the scum explanations being true.

What I think will be more useful is going back over my notes for ira and looking again at the dynamics of the wagons. What moosy just said about the hawk wagon makes sense on first consideration, so the hawk wagon might be a good place to start.

[toolenduso]

I also think the lack of interest in a Metrion lynch is interesting...I came into today thinking Metrion was the obvious candidate for a lynch and that we'd have to slow things down to prevent him from being instalynched, but so far I think it's just been me and ira? Like if Metrion is town I would think he would be a good target for scum to push as a mislynch, and if he were scum that would mean ira would likely be town and that would partially explain the lack of interest in a Metrion lynch -- because his partner is off pushing ira (or not voting for fear of being associated with a mislynch, as the case may be).

Idk it just makes a ton of sense to me still that Metrion would be scum. But this is part of what I want to look at -- if ira is scum, and everyone voting him right now is town (which I think is very possibly true), then what's his partner doing?

[toolenduso]

Look at Metrion plzerino?

What do you mean, specifically?

[toolenduso]

moosy did you just like slam back a whole pot of coffee or something

[toolenduso]

just want to point out right now that syndesis moved her vote, so voting ira right now would only put him back at L-2, not L-1.

I'm not going to rush, moosy, sorry.

[toolenduso]

I mean, I see the argument for ira. I really do.

But metrion is so freaking scummy you guys. So freaking scummy. Metrion only had one vote D1, and it was in RVS -- recall that CN had problems with voting as well -- then he half-defended CN as the wagon kept building and tried to get town not to lynch him. All without having very good reasoning for thinking CN was town. Meanwhile, he didn't push anybody else, including FA who was the counterwagon to CN, which looks like scum who already have a partner on the counterwagon (lol/rask, for example).

I could compromise on ira to avoid a no lynch, but right now I'd like to hear what people on his wagon think of metrion.

[toolenduso]

@Everybody on the ira wagon:

Why is ira a better lynch than Metrion?

[toolenduso]

Ira was the most vocal defender of CN. Metrion didn't stick out.

This is part of the reason I'm still pushing metrion instead of ira. It makes sense to me that a partner would try to stay out of the spotlight rather than vocally pushing against their partner's lynch. Scum don't want their partners to be lynched (unless it's a designed bus), but they also don't want to be super obviously associated with their partner if their partner does end up getting lynched.

[toolenduso]

I have some thoughts on what Metrion's partner is doing if Metrion is scum, but I'm kind of thinking it would be better not to reveal them right now for fear of influencing scum behavior.

But they're there, which is to say that I can explain the current game state without calling ira scum.

[toolenduso]

That should be L-2.

[toolenduso]

Why does that Cn post make moosy look like scum? I read it as the opposite, Cn was assuming moosy would flip town. Besides wasn't moosy like the only person Cn actually went after on d1?

Flubber: open my ISO and ctrl+f "holy crap" to find my reasoning for voting metrion.

[toolenduso]

Huh, I was going to come in here and try to get people going to make sure why lynch flubber but then I realized that p much everybody is ready to do it anyway.

So, B_E, have anything more to put out there before the day ends?

[toolenduso]

Just kind of waiting for the lynch to happen over here, and for people (B_E specifically, since he just replaced in) to get thoughts in before the end of the day. So I'll give some thoughts while waiting for stuff to happen.

I'm a little worried about Flubber's whole "hey guys I'm hinting that I'm a PR! but actually I'm not tho" thing. Wondered at first why scum wouldn't just claim a PR knowing that they would get lynched. But there are a few other things to consider:

-It's very, very likely Flubber is telling the truth when he says he didn't read the whole game. Town or scum, why read the whole game if deadline is approaching and you're the leading wagon?
-We don't know whether scum have day chat. So it's very possible a partner could have influenced Flubber's decision without town knowing, which could explain the turnaround on claiming a PR.
-It would also make sense from a scumFlubber perspective if he, his partner or both decided that it would just be better for the partner to bus Flubber for the cred.
-Could be giving up. Sucks to replace into a scum role that's headed for the noose close to deadline. VT claim/lack of reads doesn't give town info to find last partner.

[toolenduso]

it's hypothesizing so i don't unduly write something off as being impossible

[toolenduso]

If this lynch goes down and I die, I still think town is in a decent-ish spot to move on.

...do you not think Flubber will flip scum?

[toolenduso]

need to read up to see something, but for now i'll just stick with this.

protip: when you have confirmed scum, ie soap, just lynch them.

[toolenduso]

not making excuses for dave.

but soap was confirmed scum for everybody in the game and should've been lynched. maybe town goes on to lynch dave the next day, maybe they don't. but soap was confirmed.

[toolenduso]

ok -- i was wrong. i somehow thought you had investigated dave.

should've investigated dave.

[toolenduso]

and i was thinking about scum killing dave instead.

nvm. i'll shut up now. sorry.

[toolenduso]

and i was thinking about scum killing dave instead.

nvm. i'll shut up now. sorry.

[toolenduso]

and i was thinking about scum killing dave instead.

nvm. i'll shut up now. sorry.