Mini 1782 Game Over

[Roshar]

So, like I said previously, I didn't like the APF vote from Garmr D3. Two reasons. 1) It came first thing D3, right after the announcement of the no NK. 2) His reasons were those from D2, which he directly quoted when he was asked. Almost feels like an effort to quickly settle on a vote before a possible role blocker appeared.

@APF I would not mind lynching Heur today. I'm considering he may be partners with Titus. I haven't yet done a detailed analysis on both slots, but one thing in particular that I noticed was his Titus read. There was so little there, and it was basically discussing the technique titus was using instead of assessing the slot.

Because of the pre game business I mentioned the slight scum lean. I noticed that Titus seems to like to post most right after a vote count and not much at other times, and I think it gives that player a little power since they are pretty much commencing the next step in the game, it could be a power gaining role thing, similar to a phone call and the person getting in the last word having the most power, or two men shaking hands and the one that lets go first being in the weaker position. Not a scum or town specific tell, but kind of gives more leading power in my opinion if true. I would like to see more posts, but I'm feeling null slight scum lean.

Titus' recent responses to froot have only made my scum read stronger. I do not believe she believes her reasons for voting Lowell. I wanted to wait a bit before changing my mind on Lowell and voting Titus to see if she was going to vote Lowell as well. And she did. And I think it was a predictable move, if Titus is scum. He's (lowell) an easy vote, and his D3 actions can be way too easily presented as scum motivated. This makes me more and more confident that he's not scum. What's the most important thing that all scum need to do? Blend in. Would they scum-read a PR to fish for a claim and town read their scum buddy, and make themselves look terrible D4? No. This makes absolutely no sense. The fact that Titus is pushing this superficial read is solidifying my scum read on her.

@Johnny, The titus wagon comprises of Froot and I (excluding FaQ). When did I push you? And where did Froot push you? The reasons we're voting Titus have little to do with finding her intimidating. There has been a long back and forth between froot and titus. Did you form an opinion on any of it?

@Titus, you said you thought scum would have voted Huntress quickly after my claim and without questioning it b/c they would have known it was correct. That leaves us with Lowell and Garmr/Heur. Would you be willing to vote for Heuristically, if his wagon takes?

[Titus]

@Roshar, I would.

[Titus]

I do think Lowell's tactic along with others not voting Huntress does draw out the claim. Scum wouldn't want to be seen attacking Roshar, but get a claim out regardless.

I disagree here. One thing that happened is that I clearly hinted that I was going to "explain later", I.e claim. The only players that would have understood this would be scum. After knowing my intentions, I would expect scum to agree with me and vote Huntress in an attempt to distance themselves and cut their losses. Either that or maintain a neutral read on her. I would not expect scum to town read Huntress and scum read me in an attempt to get me to claim. Otherwise they'd have to consider the scrutiny they'd place themselves under when Huntress gets lynched.

I think your assumptions are Wifom at best. You're supposing all town are incapable of reading and incapable of reaching Huntress scum without knowledge of it. That's frankly insulting and one of the reasons I prefer scum on this site. I've laid out clear trajectories motivations and you're sole reason for disagreeing with me is the suggestion scum wouldn't take heat like that.

Lowell is getting like no heat at all from anyone but me. Yet, you're tearing into me for being too smart. It's the same way Max was lynched most likely.

[Titus]

Where is Lowell? Lurking is ass off. Yet, he'd never do something consistent with avoiding heat on himself.

[Ircher]

Mod will be V/LA next week (May 30-June 3)

[Ircher]

Vote Count - Day 4 VC #6

Titus (3) - Froot, Rosh, FA_Q2
Froot (0) -
Johnny (2) - Heur, Lowell
FA_Q2 (0) -
Heur (1) - Plain
Plain (0) -
Lowell (1) - Titus
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (1) - Johnny

Deadline

Day 4 will end on May 26 5:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-05-26 17:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Mod Notes

Mod V/LA 5/30 to 6/3; Dier will manage during that time.

[Lowell]

V/LA unexpectedly until Tuesday. Sorry!

[Froot Loop]

So, people not voting the heur/Garmr/shaddow slot, are you townreading him, or scumreading him but only at #2 scum, or what?

I'm townreading you, Roshar and FA_Q2 and I think Lowell's play is unlikely as scum. So I'm left with Titus (scum read,) Johnny and HA.

I didn't mind Shaddowez' play and he asked a lot of people questions. If he were scum, he'd have had to be questioning his scum partner at some point now that we've seen flips. That, as well as town players. He asked Huntress for clarification of her reads in 1003.

You're right about Garmr, there's practically nothing there. I'm leaning towards giving HA more time to get into the game but I pointed out the comment I didn't like and 1782 and 1794 are odd posts to me - I don't really think they show an understanding of the conversations or what's going on.

I'm also unsure about your conclusions in 1688. Can you clarify what it is that implies there's one scum, or more, in each category?

What do you think about Titus and our conversation? And:

@Everyone

- Do you think scum would've known that Roshar was a roleblocker? Not dragging you into the conversation between Titus and I, but the likelihood of that is a pretty compelling part of my thinking. A yes or no answer would be enough for me to see if it's a reasonable idea.

[Roshar]

That's not my assumption. Town could have reached the conclusion that Huntress is scummy on their own. But that wasn't exactly what happened with you. I had presented the case twice. You stated you hated my reasons, and that you'd have voted Huntress, except my reasons are making you uneasy.

*I hate Roshar's reasons for Huntress push out.

Roshar, I'm a little concerned about you not moving your vote so early. Yet, I'm struggling to find a reason that I agree with in your ISO. I think Huntress is scummy though but I am not wanting to vote something that the only person pushing it is giving reasons that make me feel uneasy. Can you rephrase or rearticulate your push on Huntress without quotes (I'll ask for verification if necessary)?

You show concern I'm not moving my vote so early, and if you ask me, I think this looks like an attempt to get me to claim (and it worked).

I don't get the thought process here btw. You're concerned about me not moving my vote, because you think that's scummy? Or because you may have an idea who I am? You follow it with a, "yet, I'm struggling...agree with" meaning that the concern isn't me being scummy. The concern is possibly who I am, i.e
"I'm concerned about who you may be (town pr), yet I'm still not agreeing with your reasons" vs "I'm concerned what you did is scummy, but I still don't agree with your reasons"

The second one doesn't make sense, as 'yet' is used to initiate the opposite perspective. For example, you wouldn't say, "I think you're suspicious, yet I don't believe you" as both these things are similar. You'd say, "I think you're innocent, yet, I don't believe you". You could have simply been using the word yet incorrectly, and that I'm reading way too much into it, but it's working for me.

I then explain to you that I'll explain later why I won't move my vote. And proceed to restate my case. And your stance changes from, "I hate Roshars reasons" " reasons that make me feel uneasy" to "I can follow that for now".
Now there are two ways to interpret this.
1) is that I restated my case really well, and you hate quotes
2) You understood what I meant by, 'explain later' and thought 'better jump on the wagon early, Huntress is getting lynched, and I'll look better if I'm here early"
I'm inclined to believe the latter.


It's not a matter of thinking you're too smart, I just feel like you're pushing reasons that don't add up. I agree with Froot when she says she thinks you're faking it.

[Roshar]

@Titus, you would be willing to lynch Heur? Are there other reasons that make you willing to lynch him? Other than Garmr quickly bought my claim?

[FA_Q2]

Not much to really comment on since my last post.

Why are you not voting johnny?

[Froot Loop]

What do you think about whether or not scum would've known that Roshar was the roleblocker?

[heuristically_alone]

Max was lynched day 2. Look at who he voted and tunnelled...Huntress. Scum have been playing to try to lynch the smarter players in the room.

I think scum are lynching whoever they can get lynched and whichever town wagon takes.

To clarify, are you saying that scum are waiting for town to make wagons then just join in on the wagon? Makes sense, if true then anyone starting a wagon is probably not scum, and the second player on a wagon less likely (but still possible)

[JohnnyFarrar]

This is the first time I've gotten votes as town in a really long time and I'm not sure how to react honestly.

@heur I defended myself against you. Either twist many words into something that helps your case or tell me why they don't matter. Being ignored just frustrates me and makes me not want to play.

@Rosh you're right about the makeup of the wagon, I guess I was just blinded by concern for myself. I am making the mental adjustments from here on out to be less tunnelly.

[FA_Q2]

What do you think about whether or not scum would've known that Roshar was the roleblocker?

I think this is directed at me so...

I think that scum certainly would have thought it was a strong possibility. Read through rosh's ISO and note every single time that he mentions huntress prior to post 1508 (the Max lynch). Universally rosh mentioned that huntress is a low posting slot that he cannot get a goo dread on. There are multiple pushes for more content from the slot itself and even one post that I would consider soft defending the slot itself in 1417. Going into day 3 there is little to zero indication that rosh has a hard scum read through day 2. Right in the beginning of day 3 though rosh pushes huntress immediately. If I were scum that just had a failed kill that would ping my radar rather hard.

Now, that does not mean that they would necessarily KNOW that rosh was the one that blocked the kill (and it could have even been a doctor) so I think that they would likely try and draw a claim out. This is a bit of WIFOM though - we cannot necessarily fret out what scum was actually thinking but it is a solid theory that scum had strong suspicions of rosh.

[Roshar]

@Rosh you're right about the makeup of the wagon, I guess I was just blinded by concern for myself. I am making the mental adjustments from here on out to be less tunnelly.

What do you think about the Titus/Froot exchange? You've stated that you didn't have an opinion about Titus beginning of D4, has this still not changed?
Do you still not have an opinion about APF as well?

To clarify, are you saying that scum are waiting for town to make wagons then just join in on the wagon? Makes sense, if true then anyone starting a wagon is probably not scum, and the second player on a wagon less likely (but still possible)

I'm saying I don't think there's been careful thought and manipulation of the lynch by scum. Town created both the Clumsy and Max wagons, and scum pretty much had to decide which to push.

@Heur, have your town /scum reads changed at all during D4? Who are your scum reads currently?

[a plain farmer]

So Rosh and Titus both scumread Heur. FAQ was voting Heur earlier in this day. Froot and Johnny, if not explicitly scumreading Heur, don't seem particularly warm on him. This looks like a good lynch for us, folks.

I'm also unsure about your conclusions in 1688. Can you clarify what it is that implies there's one scum, or more, in each category?

I am supposing that scum would be hesitant to be on the same wagons as each other, especially when that wagon was small enough that they couldn't "hide" on it. Max's D1 wagon had you, Titus, and Huntress (and Clumsy but he'd already flipped when I made that post). Huntress flipped scum, so that makes it less likely imo that you or Titus is scum.

Then I grouped those who were not on Max's wagon D2 (FAQ, Lowell, mhsmith). This is more an assumption that there'd be at least one scum off Max's wagon than that there would be only one scum there, but unless both FAQ and Lowell are scum (which I guess is a possibility) then there would be only one.

That leaves only one scum that isn't in one of those two groups from among {Johnny, Rosh, Heur}. Since I have a solid townread on both Johnny and Rosh, Heur is the most likely scum from this group.

Now there are a lot of ways this could go wrong: Max's D1 wagon could've had multiple scum (which would probably mean Titus, since I'm townreading you more). Both FAQ and Lowell could be scum. Or Johnny could be fooling me and it's him and not Heur that's scum in that group. But of all these scenarios, the one that seems initially the most likely is Heur being scum. And this is then compounded by the consistent scumminess of the slot.

[a plain farmer]

What do you think about Titus and our conversation?

I am not sure you and Titus disagree with each other as much as you think you do. Titus's position seems to be: scum didn't know what Rosh was, but they thought she was *something* so they acted unconvinced by her case in order to draw it out. This also seems to be your position too?

And:

@Everyone

- Do you think scum would've known that Roshar was a roleblocker? Not dragging you into the conversation between Titus and I, but the likelihood of that is a pretty compelling part of my thinking. A yes or no answer would be enough for me to see if it's a reasonable idea.

My inclination is to say no here, but with the caveat that we don't know what kinds of investigative roles the scum may have that give them an advantage in setup spec (for example, if they had rolecopped smith, and saw that he was odd-night, they may have assumed there was an even-night equivalent, and that would've more readily allowed them the idea of Rosh having blocked the kill).

As I said before, I've seen people put votes down and declare they weren't moving it, and most of the time they didn't have any kind of PR result to back it up. It certainly didn't make me think "roleblocker" when I saw that (but I am a bit inexperienced).

[Froot Loop]

What do you think about Titus and our conversation?

I am not sure you and Titus disagree with each other as much as you think you do. Titus's position seems to be: scum didn't know what Rosh was, but they thought she was *something* so they acted unconvinced by her case in order to draw it out. This also seems to be your position too

I think that scum would've known so they wouldn't have needed to draw out the claim. Also, it would make scum more likely to buddy Roshar and disown Huntress. This:

I think it's about the responses to your case. Almost no one was convinced by it because it wasn't actually that strong.

For Titus to come in a vote for Huntress off the back of it makes me think she knew Huntress would be outed, she knew you were the roleblocker and she wanted to be on the right side early.

(my bold now)

I didn't get Roshar's hint either but scum had more information than us, and based on that information, I think they would've had a good idea.

Lynching Heur is a far, far second choice for me today. I understand your VA but I think to have as a foundation that scum wouldn't be voting the same way is a little weak. There's no indication that that's the case as far as I can see.

If people aren't convinced about Titus, I totally understand, but it'd be good to hear why, referencing the points that have been made against her.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Plain is trying to foster a kinship between two people who aren't obvious townreads. Anyone

not

thinking he's town after that?

[heuristically_alone]

This is the first time I've gotten votes as town in a really long time and I'm not sure how to react honestly.

@heur I defended myself against you. Either twist many words into something that helps your case or tell me why they don't matter. Being ignored just frustrates me and makes me not want to play.

How often do you get votes as scum?

I know you defended. I gave my case and you gave yours. Now it is for the jury to decide (town) if they agree you're guilty or if you're innocent. That's how I generally play. If I didn't reply, it was probably because I didn't see anything in what you said in your defense that mattered.

[heuristically_alone]

Also, one more thought I noticed, you say you haven't been voted as town in a long time, why do you think scum aren't willing to vote you in the past?

[heuristically_alone]

Haha sorry, I keep posting and then having one more thing to say.
If you haven't received votes as town in a long time, wouldn't that make you scum this game since you're getting votes?

[heuristically_alone]

@Roshar, I would.

(content clarification, Titus is responding to Roshar saying if people would be ok with geting on Heur wagon)

Titus, from what I can tell, you haven't been on my wagon/garmr's the whole game. Why now?

[Ircher]

Deadline is appraching....