Mini 1782 Game Over

[Lowell]

@plain, can you summarize the heur case for me? I have a townlean on him but I don't remember why. I'm curious what you see that I don't.

Right now I'd still take johnny over titus, but I'll vote titus if I need to.

Townreads on APL and FL, the latter of which I believe is new.

[Ircher]

Vote Count - Day 4 VC #6

Titus (3) (L-2) - Froot, Rosh, FA_Q2

Froot (0) -

Johnny (2) (L-3) - Heur, Lowell

FA_Q2 (0) -
Heur (1) - Plain
Plain (0) -
Lowell (1) - Titus
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (1) - Johnny

Deadline

Day 4 will end on May 26 5:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-05-26 17:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Mod Notes

Mod V/LA 5/30 to 6/3; Dier will manage during that time.

[Lowell]

VOTE: titus

I'll be around again briefly about 14 hours from now, but I'll miss the last six hours or so before deadline. I don't want to risk a no-lynch here, so if it has to be titus, so be it. If I come back and johnny has votes I'll do that too.

[FA_Q2]

Not much to really comment on since my last post.

Why are you not voting johnny?

Why are you? I have had him as obvtown since the neighbor thing.

Hmmm, commas are important. That was supposed to be: Why are you not voting, johhny?

IOW, why has johnny not voted for anyone.

I was not voting him as the VC shows, I am voting you...

[heuristically_alone]

Heur - you haven't answered this:
In post 1791, Froot Loop wrote:
@HA - how do you feel about that post considering the quote below? I'll be honest and say that your original comment in 1706 seems like empty content to support a pretty-certain town player.

In post 1747, Roshar wrote:
Everyone else didn't buy my case. And I can see why as I was working backwards. I was actively looking at everything she posted from scum perspective, so I'm not surprised people thought I was tunneling or suffered confbias.

I see why you bring this post up and why it might be seen as scummy, and if I already didn't feel so good about Roshar being town, I would find it scummy. Yet, I feel like Roshar has a serious attitute of "I was walking in the shoes of my enemies to see what I might think/do in their situation". I still find Roshar as town.

[heuristically_alone]

@Roshar, I would.

(content clarification, Titus is responding to Roshar saying if people would be ok with geting on Heur wagon)

Titus, from what I can tell, you haven't been on my wagon/garmr's the whole game. Why now?

Because the vote history hadn't supported it. Now it does.

Lowell has the vote history + scummy play.

A little confused... Now it does support you voting on my wagon?

[Titus]

I am at L minus 1. I'm an even night doctor.

[a plain farmer]

And who was your patient Night 2?

[heuristically_alone]

We have one dead odd night PR for both town and mafia, so it is likely there is an even night PR for both town and mafia, right?

[Titus]

And who was your patient Night 2?

Johnny. Pretty duh. I've hard townread him since the neighbors thing.

[Froot Loop]

I see why you bring this post up and why it might be seen as scummy, and if I already didn't feel so good about Roshar being town, I would find it scummy.

Yet, I feel like Roshar has a serious attitute of "I was walking in the shoes of my enemies to see what I might think/do in their situation".

I still find Roshar as town.

(my bold)

Roshar knew that Huntress was scum and went back to look at her ISO. Roshar then tried to construct a case based on her existing knowledge that Huntress was scum. Your comments don't really make sense, bearing this in mind.

I'm not questioning your town read; Roshar is practically conftown. The fact you haven't mentioned that she has claimed RB and outed Huntress is odd.

We have one dead odd night PR for both town and mafia, so it is likely there is an even night PR for both town and mafia, right?

It's possible, although Roshar has also claimed even-night Roleblocker, so if the roles were going to pair up, scum would need two even night roles.

Nos was a follower and Huntress was an odd-night Ninja - so Huntress' role counteracts Nos'. To follow this pattern, there could be another every-night role and then an odd/even night power which counteracts it. We've got an odd and an even role so that'd imply two every-night roles for the scum? Although their kill could also count as a power which both smith and Roshar's roles counteract. This doesn't really get us anywhere but it's another way of thinking about the distribution of roles.

Also, we've had two PRs killed. Ircher said there's no N0 ability, so maybe this is an odd-day role? Or scum have some information about roles in the game.

I've got to say, I'm super happy about Titus' lurking earlier today, avoiding questions and now claiming with ~20 hours to go. Makes this discussion super easy.

I don't believe Titus' claim and I still want to lynch her today. However, I know that some people aren't as convinced as I am. I'll be around for basically the rest of the time until deadline (it's daytime for me IRL right now) so I'll check back regularly. If everyone wants to move onto Heur and talk about Titus tomorrow, I'll move my vote.

[Titus]

Lurking earlier? Really? I'm modding a game, and have other games, plus a real life job.

Fuck you. You're scum aren't you?

[Froot Loop]

No I'm not.

You received a prod today. Everything else I said is true and is now influencing our decision. I'm annoyed that time is a factor.

[Titus]

And I don't know how the fuck that happened.

[Titus]

Ask anyone, hyperactivity is a Titus tell.

[Froot Loop]

Ok, but what about discussing something now?

[Titus]

I have been. You just shout me down to pidgeon hole your damn theory.

[Froot Loop]

Maybe I have been shouting but I think the questions were fair. If we're trying to get to a lynch today, at least, the point about Lowell and his attack on Roshar is something to talk about. The lynch on Max: that was so different from your previous idea that I thought/think it's a surprising change.

[Titus]

It was different but reads change with new information.

I focused first on Huntress given the vote wagon. Huntress flipped scum. Ok, who acted funny regarding the claim? Lowell/Garmr slot. What does Huntress scum tell us? Scum weren't bussing and lynching smart people (Max) and content using me to do it.

[Titus]

To me, there's zero chance Roshar claims if she gets the support without it. Lowell and co hard defended Huntress and accused Roshar of being scum. Why? She gave tunnel indicators. If they could defend Huntress by making Roshar look like scum/insane, they don't have to burn the ninja.

[a plain farmer]

Here I come to shill for Titus again. The claim is certainly plausible. Read her interactions on Page 62, at the beginning of Day 3, and the trust and value she seems to place in Johnny are consistent with having just protected him on a night with a failed kill.

More importantly, though, Heur is probscum and hasn't claimed doctor, so the opportunity cost associated with his lynch is much more favorable.

Titus should put her vote on Heur, and I hope Johnny wants to as well. And then we'd just need a couple more from Froot, Rosh, and FAQ, the latter two I believe scumread Heur. All these people I think are normally active enough during the next several hours to put the vote down. Let's do it.

[Titus]

I would rather have Lowell and since no one is voting with me, why should I go to Heur? If you say Heir is more viable, prove it.

[a plain farmer]

It's true that I'd also rather lynch Lowell than lynch you. But my vote is going to remain on Heur at least until I return to this thread tomorrow (when there will be about 5 hours left), and I think it would better your chances of survival to move your vote to him in that time and thus present another viable lynch.

I don't have much more to say on Heur than I did in 1816 and 1752. I'll add that shaddow and Garmr had been doing more hiding than anything else. If it were just an individual player you may be able to pass it off as them being busy or apathetic. But when you see it from two different players in the same slot, then it becomes more likely that the behavior is a result of the slot. All my points may not quite "prove it", but I don't see anything better against Lowell either.

[Titus]

So you're telling me that I essentially have to side with the same people who are trying to mislynch me on a wing and a prayer they're right on the second read and mostly town?

Why can't you just move to Lowell now?

[a plain farmer]

Well yeah that's your situation. But the lynch threshold is 5, so if you're going to want to survive you'll need the help of at least 1 person who's presently on your wagon. You can put your vote on Heur, but have it be essentially also a vote on Lowell, in that you'll move it if enough people subsequently express interest in Lowell.