Mini 1804: Poker Mafia (Game Over)

[RedCoyote]

Nevermind, I just scrolled up.

[Infinity 324]

I'd rather wagon faq as he's actually done scummy stuff while fire has done nothing.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: MagnaofIllusion
I want to see where this goes.

@Infinity: you mentioned that MoI had made some towny posts. Can you direct me to them?

[RedCoyote]

The point of the meta argument is that if Red Coyote was being honest his assessment of my play should say I'm probably Town. But that's not the conclusion he reaches.

I maintain, apparently to [MoI's] chagrin, that I don't find [MoI] particularly scummy at this time

I'll hang this up on the thread for all the world to see.

[RedCoyote]

I'd rather wagon faq as he's actually done scummy stuff while fire has done nothing.

If only we could lynch both. You grab one and I'll grab the other.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Don't like MoI, Infinity or SS from the early game posting.

[Infinity 324]

@Infinity: you mentioned that MoI had made some towny posts. Can you direct me to them?

Spoiler: MoI's push on RC

Posting for my benefit for later reference – FA and Pers have both made “13 player oops” slips.

The bad part of MM’s full readslist is not that it is not strong. I don’t expect that on Page 4. Why it may be an example of scum play is it appeared right after MM had drawn a couple votes (Infinity and Lane) and has the feel of “Have to post content to look Town before a wagon develops”. Pers’s reaction 92 looks Town. So does Quib’s at 102.

I also an very, very wary of Lane’s buddying / borderline hero worship with Pers. At best it is bad Town play which has caused problems in the past (just look at anyone who are deemed Top Players and you will find a game where they are scum and given a pass due to Hero worship – most recent example I can think of is Killthestory towards Ranger in Open 633 - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=65953 ).

There will be a showdown, right? That might give us some clues as to what happened. If one of the two shows a very premium hand, it's at least unlikely that they are a team.

How do you come to this conclusion – frankly it is the opposite that makes more sense given Pre-Game talk possibilities.

What did you think about RC's post in terms of his alignment?

You can read below but this bring up two questions –

1. Why did you specifically ask me?
2. You post before this seems to not be drawing the same read I am. Why is that? I see your later vote but that vote is basically naked and nothing in your ISO says “I suspect RC” to my eyes.

Not many people responded to my random reads list, but s_s responded in a towny way.

Please elaborate on what exactly was his Townie reaction.

I really like this question and thought process. I hadn't considered any money shenanigans, but it makes sense that the scum may want to pool their money together under one person if they can, especially given how everything costs more than $500.

Does this necessarily point to lane as scum though? I'm thinking no. lane strikes me as the impulsive type. I don't get the feeling that his bet was part of a gambit, but it's something to still consider going forward.

I’m having issues with these linked paragraphs. Specifically the manner in which he just assesses that Lane wouldn’t be scum because he’s impulsive. That doesn’t make any sense given that Lane being an ‘impulsive type’ would be impulsive regardless of the alignment he drew. This looks like reaching to draw a conclusion that he already knows.

Mod, could you put the numerical amount of votes each player has in your VCs? I know I can count them myself, but I'm lazy. Additionally, I think it would be helpful for everyone if you kept track of who's in/out, who called/bet and what, etc. Perhaps in a separate area tag under the VC? Just a suggestion. It would definitely help the game run smoother if we had all the updated info at a glance.

Strikes me as LAMIST to a degree. All of this could have been just as easily handled in a PM. And specifically because it isn’t a question (which others have posted, Pers as I recall most recently) which benefits general knowledge.

VOTE: Red Coyote

Otherwise it could just be someone who tried to bluff and got called. You guys obviously know nothing about poker. People bluff. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. I think it's obvious you guys know nothing about poker to think that there would obviously be a call on all in first hand. You're trying to make it scummy when it isn't.

I think Lane’s response to the pressure has been Null/Reasonable but this post pushes my gut.

Lane made what is the equivalent of Newb101 Poker Bad Play. Going effectively All-In the first hand with what he is claiming is a bad hand is the kind of thing you see from complete novice players. And yet his response is to basically ridicule everyone who suspects him as not understanding poker.

This is 5 card stud with 3 wildcards. Anyone with a modicum of math skills knows that all three Jokers are distributed the first hand. So odds are very favorable that worst case we have three pairs at a minimum among the 11 players. Yet Lane is claiming to understand poker and went all in with a self-proclaimed bad hand?

Doesn’t follow logically for me. Now all this goes away if we get a showdown and Lane actually has a hand that makes sense for trying to draw out calls. But for now I’m still wary of his play.

What idea? The chip-dumping theory? Just because I'm confident in my hand doesn't mean I'm scum, otherwise that would mean I was just collecting lane's monies. Besides, lane claimed to have done that with no coordination, so what do you think are the odds of the guy with the nuts be town? Just down to luck, out of the 10 remaning, odds are 2 or 3 are scum, making it like 75% chance I'm town.

For someone who decried players taking things at face value there is an awful lot you are expecting everyone to just take at face value in this response for it to be reasonable.

See, I agree with FA_Q2's 74 except that I don't see lane's bet as scummy. That said, once we see the hands, I may feel differently.

Please elaborate on what hand combination you think would change your view on Lane and what you think is the situation now with your Town Lane read.

The question everyone has to ask themselves, if you were townMM, would you have called scumlane? If so, why didn't you? If not, why would townMM do this?

This reeks of scum trying to position the argument that there is no logical reason for MM to be Town when the question is very poorly staged.

I would have absolutely called Lane even if I thought he was scum trying some sort of gambit if I had a good 5 card draw poker hand. The obvious answer why I didn’t? I didn’t have a good hand. The second half is pointless given I think Town with a good hand would call scum Lane.

This is a false dichotomy and scummy. If Lane was scum looking to consolidate it is possible MM is a partner. It is also possible that MM has a good 5 card draw hand and he pre-empted scum’s plan as Town. Looking at the vote history he was the second to act.

But only drawing negative conclusions from the scenario is scummy.

I have not characterized my lane read as a townread. I do not think the evidence is there to call him a scumread, however.

Should he have a bad hand, I will reassess at that time.

Stop dodging the question and answer it directly.

What hand are you expecting in your “Lane isn’t scummy” stance?

This is a reach that is completely unworthy of a vote. There's no response for this other than I hope those straws you're grasping at are soft to the touch.

It’s page 5. Anything is going to be a stretch at this point as the game is a whopping 24 hours old. You’ve been around long enough to understand this. Yet you begin with the discrediting language in your first response.

Why shouldn't I acknowledge the elephant in the room? I think you (or someone else) would've criticized me if I didn't address lane or apply this specific argument toward lane. I mean, he's the only one it applys to at this point, after all.

If lane is impulsive, it necessarily weakens the argument that this move was calculated. Because if he's impulsive, he'd maybe do the same bet regardless of his alignment (making the bet null, not scummy). That said, I'm willing to acknowledge the calculated argument is reasonable. I don't find it likely, however, and I'm going to explain why. This was the appropriate time to do so.

1. Moving the goalposts. Not a single point about my argument stated you should not have commented on Lane.
2. Being impulsive isn’t really relevant given the revelation of Pre-Game talk where scum had the change to coordinate their actions. In which case Lane’s partner

could certainly have gotten him on-board with the plan. So your post reads to me as looking for a reason to clear Lane and I think the reason you used was spurious as stated in the first response.

Given your poor arguments in 107, it stands to reason that you'll now comb back over reasonable questions in an attempt to frame them in a negative light.

And more discrediting language. And language that specified implies I'm scum looking to frame innocent posting. Yet no movement to actually vote me. Or anyone since Red specifically avoided voting in his first post.

Happy with my vote.

Those posts are more aggressive than I would expect for scum, and even though they are stretchy, they feel more like confbiased town than tunneling scum to me. I agreed with quite a few of them as well, though his argument has become worse since then. I also like his defense of MM, it echoes a lot of my thoughts. Again, I didn't like how little paranoia he has given he's pushed on RC 3 times before when RC was town, but his response makes me think he actually believes there's no good reason to be paranoid.

What do you think of RC, faq2, and qubixes?

[Something_Smart]

Town, awkward and possibly scum (but probably not a good D1 lynch), and town
I definitely disagree that scum can't make terrible cases that look like confbias. I've been on both ends of forceful cases by scum on town that were weak at best. I think his defense of MM is contrived and could possibly be partner defending (one reason why I want an MoI flip today), and I agree that his thoughts on RC don't seem real.

[RedCoyote]

Sorry if that hurts but the only thing memorable about you was your username.

Lol, I don't put much stock into your memory, MoI, no.

Who isn’t reading now? I SPECIFICALLY mentioned I went through 3 pages of my topics looking for games we might have in common. Many of my games we didn’t but I needed to check them. This took me over one hour. Are you suggesting it isn’t reasonable for me to find 4 games after an hour of searching and conclude your point wasn’t valid?

Please, don't get all pissy. It's funny you coincidentally left out the games most valid to my point is all. Instead of letting just a speck of humility show with a response like, "RC, I don't recall this 'history' you are talking about at all, and I demand you back it up", you make this big show asking me, "why would I lie about something that was so easy for you to check"?

Further, if it was "so easy" for you to go check, why are you now complaining about how it took you over an hour and that I'm being unreasonable to expect you actually stand by the words you yourself wrote?

So your statement (which I feel was yet another attempt to discredit my feelings on your slot) was that I attack you regardless of alignment. Small sample size of scum games shows me never attacking you. Town games I correctly read you 2 of 5 times and incorrectly read you 3 of 5 times. That’s hardly the poor situation you are presenting.

I'd actually claim that 7 games is a fairly signifcant sample size considering the time span and the amount of games total. Perhaps not the cross-sectional levels of a DGB or Nachomamma, but relatively speaking it's something worth noting.

In any event, 75% of games where we were both town, you either voted or had me on your scumlist or both; 50% when we had different alignments. I just wanted to make that history known to everyone.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Yeah, I'mma do this and hope we have a wagon tomorrow.

VOTE: Infinity

[RedCoyote]

That's horrible, BBT. You better hope that wagon isn't on you tomorrow.

If you're in the middle of typing more content, however, then I will gladly retract the above statement.

[Infinity 324]

I definitely disagree that scum can't make terrible cases that look like confbias. I've been on both ends of forceful cases by scum on town that were weak at best. I think his defense of MM is contrived and could possibly be partner defending (one reason why I want an MoI flip today), and I agree that his thoughts on RC don't seem real.

I know scum can fake confbias cases, but they rarely actually do in my experience and MoI's push doesn't look like that. It's funny you say the MM defense is contrived, because I agree with it quite a bit.

The fact that he said things that were so close to what I was thinking in his initial push on RC and in his MM defense just makes him very unlikely to be scum from my perspective.

We still have a week, and I kinda wanna pressure a lurker slot to see what we can get out of them.

It just sucks that we have a bunch of players using weak logic and a bunch of lurkers, and most of them are probably town :/

[Infinity 324]

Wait, s_s, you said you were going to reread mm, did you get anything from it?

[lane0168]

VOTE: fa_q2

I like this slightly more than moi. I disagree with almost everything moi says. And I'm not liking how he got so worked up with redcoyote saying he scum reads rc regardless of their alignment. Which from what I've seen, appears to be true...

Also wtf still any the fire assassin meta read? I'm kinda talking myself into an moi vote, but fa_q2 takes it.

[lane0168]

^ shit - wrong thread. Can you take car of that MOD?

~Done.

Why did faq2 accidentally post here... But never... Post here?

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, I'm leaning scum on him, but reading him is hard because of the massive theory arguments that really didn't need to be there. I'll look at him more tomorrow, but I don't know how much more I'll be able to find. I'd rather try to sort him going forward, I've found my reads almost invariably improve as a game goes on (which is no surprise).
Pedit: I think mod deleted it.

[lane0168]

No I mean, that was yesterday around noon. His last post before the delete post was the day before. Why did he post here, realize how accident, but not stick around to make an actual post?

Theres a lot I don't like in his iso. How cases are all crap. In a "I gotta find something to look scum hunting" kind of way.

His case on Persivul. The thing I find scummy, is that it stems from Persivul's so called role fishing. Only be never mentions that as being part of his case. He mentions pers reaction to the charge of role fishing, but I feel like if he thought it was role fishing that'd be a bigger issue.

I better go check myself on this...

[Infinity 324]

^^ yeah pretty much that. Especially the "I gotta look like I'm scumhunting" part.

[Something_Smart]

Oh. I don't think that's necessarily alignment indicative, he may have only had time to post in one game and wanted it to be the other one.
One of my reasons for going after MoI was that his flip would provide a lot more info than FA's. However I do like the idea of forcing FA to give more content.

[Something_Smart]

*that refers to lane's first paragraph only, the rest is definitely alignment indicative.

[lane0168]

Ok be says he's not sure if it's dumb or scum, the role fishing.

[lane0168]

@magna. I'm not sure I understand the question. I didn't want to consolidate money into anyone's hands but my own. I didn't expect anyone to call. I want money to get the benefits of getting money. So why am I scummy again?

I find it suspect that you just assumed an immediate All-In would not possibly get called. Especially given you told Pers "I'm not going to win". If anyone calls then odds are overwhelming that one person ends up with $1,000 plus in their bankroll immediately. Which if they are scum is not good for Town.

I could certainly see a pre-game scenario where it was decided to try to consolidate money on one scum via an All-in and scum counterclaim.

Agree.

This move by lane is pretty scummy. I think that we need to see the hands though to make that call. The statement:

Because I didn't think anybody would call. I was wrong

may very well be a lie to get some more players to put their money in. I certainly think it is asinine to all in on a 13 player card game and expect no one to call you. There are to many players at the table to go hard without the hand to back it up. If he has a shit hand then he very well could be trying to shift his money over to another scum.

Fold

First he repeats my play was scummy. But I've seen no reason for it to be scummy unless I'm partners with the mm.

Bad for two reasons, 1) then why not vote the mm 2) he only ever says it's scummy. Why is Persivul's role fishing dumb or scum, but mine is straight up scummy?

You have any other reads? Why vote lane over persivul?

Why vote persivul?

I am not sure if it is just a dumb idea he is pushing or if it is scum.

FA, why is lane bullshitting to cover his bad play scummy? We're playing two games here, he screwed up in one game in a way that only slightly affected the other. Do you think lane's play makes sense as scum if MM isn't his partner?

Because the only real reasoning behind his bad play is that scum wants to combine money pools. It does make a lot more sense with MM as his partner. When lane flips scum MM is the obvious lynch the next day.

Again had to be scummy, only explanation.

Must be partners

Note this quote, a tongue in cheek remark. My only "suspicion" In anyone else other than the mm up to this point

If I was scum and had day talk... And I planned a scum money dump, how do you think that would actually go? What would be the actual plan?

First of all I wouldn't do the plan if we didn't have better than a pair. And I would've been aware of jokers so a pair doesn't mean much. You can figure this out by saying I have a bad, meh, good, very good, probably unbeatable hand.

2 options to start. Either the one with the good hand goes all in, and the shit hand calls. Or the bad hand goes all in and the good hand calls.

To me, it makes sense for the good hand to go all in first. Then if town calls and there's a chance they have a better hand, the bad hand can save its money. That obviously didn't happen.

So now if the bad hand goes all in, and even if a town calls, the good hand would still go all in, because it would've been decided its a very good hand that probably wouldn't get beat.

Considering there was only one call, the only option here is me and mm.

That's no way we would do that plan unless we were very confident we wouldn't be throwing money away. Cause that'd be dumber than town going all in on a bluff.

So faq2, why aren't you voting the mm?

Because you are scummy for more than your bad play. Not only did you push a bad play but you followed that by defending yourself with character attacks (saying that others obviously do not know how to play poker) and have been almost exclusively defending without any real interest in finding scum. You also seem to be willing to throw suspicion anywhere that might not be you. That is not very townie.

Willing to throw suspicion anywhere that might not be me... I said one off handed remark that can hardly be taken seriously. And I definitely had a lot of interest in proving the mm to be scum. This is all just so terrible. Character attacks are scummy? And saying people don't know poker is a character attack? You're just trying to paint a scum picture with chop sticks.

He says several times that it makes sense me and the mm are partners, but compared to what I was saying about the mm, I see no reason why he'd insist on voting me.

And "lane can wait till tomorrow" makes me cringe

[lane0168]

s_s, a lot of things in that post seem to suggest I'm scum, why do you think I'm town?

About mm, I think he's been less careful (the inconsistencies people mention are an example of this) than noob scum would be, especially because he seems more of a careful person to me. I feel like he started off posting carefully, but once he got put under pressure he panicked and tried to over-explain, whereas as scum he would have good explanations prepared for his actions. He also seems quite willing to engage.

PEdit: I don't agree with that at all faq2, and honestly that reasoning seems pretty fabricated. Lane has definitely been trying to scumhunt, the "character attacks" are NAI, and I think most of his changes in reads so far have had a good reason for them.

PEdit 2: Oh I didn't realize that part of your quote about persivul was about the rolefishing. Were you unsure about it from the beginning?

Why do you think persivul is scum for using something you don't think is a scumtell?

It is not necessity a scum tell in this case (as there are already some knowns about the abilities themselves). I do not like the response though.

He does not engage directly with the charge - rather he tries to attack me with a BS meta charge. The timing there is extremely suspect (didn't have any problem with my activity before then), he does not actually go into my meta at all, uses activity as a meta tell which is asinine to start with and ultimately sidesteps the original issue to begin with using that charge. He also tried to cover his fishing with the statement that his choices were obvious not even giving credence to the fact that outing the decisions made tells scum exactly what powers he has and how much money he has remaining. For instance, should he say he was going to purchase the first ability then he does not present any real threat to scum but if he saves that cash for the last one there is a chance that they may want to take him out to prevent that purchase. IOW, rather than get into why his query was toxic to town he attacks immediately and brushes off the fact that town gains no useful information with the question but scum gains tons. If he were town then he would have been genuinely concerned with why I thought such information would be a bad idea to share. There was zero of that.

The more I think about it the more I want a Persivul lynch before a Lane lynch.
VOTE: Persivul

Lane can wait till tomorrow.

What I don't like about the Persivul case, is he says the role fishing is blatant, and also not a tell. Yet here he talks about Persivul trying to cover his role fishing. It was obvious. True, but what's to cover? I feel like he's just trying to pad the case with whatever he can.

Literally no one cared about the role fishing because what was said was true, scum know who the most powerful person is, there's nothing to hide. And yet hes after Persivul about it. When nobody in the game cares? I don't see anything wrong with Persivul's reaction.

[lane0168]

It feels like both moi and fa_q2 would do anything not to vote the mm. And I don't like that

[lane0168]

Idk, writing it all out like that didn't substantiate the gut feeling I had when I first read his iso. I will say that