Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[ActionDan]

Ellibereth might be a neutral organizer of the event but our team has harnessed his power; we have learned the sacred scum hunting techniques and have inherited his scum prowess.

VOTE: Postie

[ActionDan]

For the record nsg is scum-tryharding as opposed to postie town-tryharding. The difference is in the reactiveness (?) or general gist of that

NSG looks like NSG here. What you'd call scum-tryharding I'd call NAI. But I 100% disagree with your postie assessment and think as NSG as said, it comes off as forced. "forced" really isn't doing it justice actually, it's more like a cross-examination that where any one line of inquiry splits into two arbitrarily ad nauseam.

[ActionDan]

Pretty confident on Eddie Fenix and lq being town

[ActionDan]

I won't lie I came into this game thinking there was a 99.9% chance Eddie took a town role pm. I don't care much about his post but I think his reads are decent. That's enough

[ActionDan]

Is sauce an axlegreaser alt?

Can't be, Alts are going to be represented as Mains.

yeah I know, consider that post more of an exasperated sigh than anything else.

I would like to add that at any point I will contribute to a sauce policy lynch without hesitation

[ActionDan]

I don't know why that got quoted. I never hit a quote button on my phone

[ActionDan]

@dan – mathdino wants to know why you're townreading quick, he thinks quick was the most likely of his team to pick scum.

Mulch is the most likely of his team to pick scum.

My townread on LQ started in post 93, as during the back and forth between you and Postie I thought that was the right kind of question if one wanted to extract more content that could be potentially useful in determining your alignment and something I might have asked myself. I thought 104 had town vibes too and I don't see anything to dissuade me from these feelings in other posts as of yet.

---

UNVOTE:

203 doesn't seem to be within Postie's scum range judging from the scum games provided. Beyond that, I don't really think she's scummy anymore.

I've read the thread pretty carefully but I don't have any strong scum suspicions. I will read the thread again. In the mean time if people could stop posting multiple times in a row and stop building huge quote walls one sentence at a time I'd appreciate it. I'm pretty sure that's a factor in diluting my ability to make reads.

[ActionDan]

@Liquety's vote (yes, I'm addressing the vote) by now seems more townie to me because it was mirroring my ex-vote on wgeurts

I interpret this to mean that LQ's vote was made on you for reasons similar to your vote on Wgeurts, is that correct? If so, please flesh this out.

[ActionDan]

I'm still in rereading mode. However, I am interested in his response to you and the last couple of posts.

[ActionDan]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I find post 125 incongruous with the Dunnstral evaluation before and after. I also would have expected in post 232 that LQ's acknowledgement of Dunntral's naked vote to be taken as a cue to look back and see why LQ would have said that, instead of making something of it.

Similarly, but much more importantly, there is disparity present between posts 105 and 231 with regard to the read on Sauce. Although 231 doesn't endorse a town read of Sauce there, it is a statement that is a far cry from the feelings expressed in 105.

I don't find anything nearly as scummy in the TSQ/Gamma back and forth as the above, but I will say that I got a strong townread of TSQ out of it.

[ActionDan]

About 125, I felt the vote by Dunn was a bus so I was like "yeah there was bussing, so what". As for LQ's post, I guess that's a reasonable expectation, but there's also the fact that it was a common thread in the post, so I kinda didn't think anything was up with that one in particular.
As for the sauce read, I hadn't really seen much of him yet in that first post. By the time I posted 231 I had gotten to see what he was like more.
Why are you getting a townread from TSQ in the 1v1?

If you didn't think there was something funky with LQ's assessment of Dunn's vote you would not have called him out on it, despite it sharing a similar structure to his assessments on Llmarble's and Postie's votes.

Can you explain how the additional posts of Sauce in-between 105 and 231 drastically changed your view of him as a contender for your vote into someone that someone else might townread?

I see honest scum hunting from TSQ in posts 254 and 265. It's actually good he missed your unvote, as I think I wouldn't have as clear a picture as I do now than if he hadn't.

[ActionDan]

also, i'm pretty much of the opposite opinion to dan when it comes to the tsq/gamma interaction – i think gamma's suspicion on dunn is very easily explained by a confusion of the order of events when it comes to dunn's vote vs the rest of the marquis wagon whereas i think tsq's push there feels opportunistic. mathdino agrees with me here, and he thinks the same "predatory" or "gotcha fishing"-style was visible in tsq's posts to me.

I agree that Gamma probably thought Dunn's vote on Marquis came in the middle of the wagon or at least not the first vote (although I wouldn't say that suspicion on Dunn for this is completely warranted per se), but I disagree with you and Dino that TSQ was predatory at any point.

Do you (or MathDino if he's following along) have thoughts about my 282 which is largely outside TSQ/Gamma interactions?

[ActionDan]

As for Sauce, I feel like it's a general thing about the way he posts. Another person I feel is one of those "annoying but readable" types is Ramcius.
wrt TSQ, Are you saying the missing of the unvote was towny or that it helped you sort him?

Sauce's non-content noise is not readable to me, or really, any sane person I'd wager. There are very tiny bits of content here and there, and 100 and 101 are examples which you made a concrete statement about in 105. I still don't see how you go from that to offering a hypothetical scenario wherein someone could read his

noise

as town (which is no where near anything close to what Ramicus might post). Is Sauce still a contender for your vote?

wrt TSQ, it's the latter, that his miss helped me read him based on the context that he thought your vote was still on Dunnstral when it wasn't (not that missing it was towny)

---

I've been going through a couple of isos.

Lycan, in your 225, do you not think your conclusion that CES is opportunistic scum jumping on Llmarble is example of what you described as "feely bullshit" since it seems to me you don't have a reasonable basis to conclude either that Llmarble talked himself up to rile up scum or that CES voted him in reaction to it as CES hardly gave much of a reason for his Llmarble vote in the first place.

Why do you think the first part of 214 is scummy?

CES which posts of Marquis' do you think are scummy and why was Llmarble a better vote at the time of post 68?

Dunnstral, you have said Postie "leans back" when referencing her teammates opinions, but I neither see it as a crutch nor do I see any opinion of hers being deferred to her teammate's separate opinions (they seem to share many). Similarly, why if someone like RC is taking a large amount of interest in this game, would it be scummy to utilize and showcase his opinion?

To which Postie post are you referring to in 311, Tchill?

In 77 what relevance is there in Llmarble's or NSG's opinions on Marquis in relation to your own Wgeurts?

----

Gun to my head, Tchill/Marquis/Wgeurts would be just above the null line into town but I need to more posts to get a better determination

I agree with NSG's assessment of CES in that his contributions thus far aren't anything to write home about but I think in time I'll get a better feel for him.

Very much not impressed with any of Sauce/Lycan/Dunnstral and furthermore would put them a peg further down the sliding scum scale than CES.

GE is still in the doghouse but I'm not sure where I'll be later.

In large part I need a good amount more of posts from everyone that I've named here. Anyone I haven't is to various degrees a townread and that won't be changing anytime soon.

Also Llmarble, I asked chess to look into EddieFenix but he's wrapped up in his own game atm. That said I highly doubt you'll get a different answer from mine wherein this version looks very different from his previous scum incarnations.

[ActionDan]

ISO analysis was eh.

can you elaborate on what you didn't like?

[ActionDan]

@Dan 374: I don't think I'm gonna vote Sauce at least for right now based on my current feelings about him and having other people I'm considering before then.

What are these current feelings? Actually I'd like you to detail your feelings at 3 points in time: 105, 231, and right now.

Dunnstral, you have said Postie "leans back" when referencing her teammates opinions, but I neither see it as a crutch nor do I see any opinion of hers being deferred to her teammate's separate opinions (they seem to share many). Similarly, why if someone like RC is taking a large amount of interest in this game, would it be scummy to utilize and showcase his opinion?

Nobody has pushed her for her opinions, though

If RC was on a team with scum postie I'd expect him to be guiding her

What rubs me the wrong way is that she was constantly referring to her team which I felt was towny at first but realized would be happening if she was scum too

Although I don't see the relevance, people were pushing Postie earlier in the game for her opinions, with the word "forced" being used by me and NSG. (if you instead meant, "no one has asked Postie for her opinions," I also don't understand the relevance of this)

The next two sentences are explicitly NAI, but previously they were both explicitly used to get a scum read on Postie, the strength of which does not equate to the sentiments expressed here.

Furthermore I don't see why you'd vote hop to Marquis when as far as I can tell you have not expressed any reason to jump off of Postie here.

---

I'm willing to call Lycan's 430 town. I understand a couple of reservations people have with it, (6 scum reads, CES not being mentioned etc.) but it looks, feels, and has meaty arguments that flow and read town.

LQ still looks town to me. Lots of posts I've glossed over admittedly and I probably could use to recheck my read there, but I don't see the scummitude others do.

None of Marquis' recent posts look to me as anything other than null, and certainly not giving me town vibes for the language, emotion or any content within as suggested by Gamma. In fact the time spent making those posts could have been used to read the thread, as I'm sure Marquis is aware.

Tchill lack of anything not Postie related after he thought certain posts of hers looked townie is now a concern of mine. That said recognizing that at least some of her posts have merit to them is an encouraging sign and I maintain previous to that his thought processes didn't strike me as particularly scummy.

I still don't know where CES stands in his reads this game and don't know why he thought Marquis was scummy to begin with earlier before the lurking.

I don't know why mathdino has a townread of Sauce. I trust that he does, but I'm baffled and can't respect it. I continue to see nothing of value from that slot, and I find it's voting patterns incomprehensible.

[ActionDan]

You've questioned Sauce? Where? Could you explicitly link the posts (using URLs, not quoting the whole thing) where you see town value with an accompanying explanation as to why.

[ActionDan]

Also even reading for tone in Marquis post alone it's self-deprecating here and there but that's not AI. I really just don't see anything that you could determine one way or the other

[ActionDan]

Oh ok missed post 507.

CES I'll read that game (where I was scum too!) again and take it into account.

[ActionDan]

Will post tomorrow.

[ActionDan]

skimmed thread when it was locked.

a) Am I missing something with prods because I posted an anti-prod kick the can down the road post but that didn't seem to count
b) Rolling with Sauce town now because of their explanation for the switch, potential WIFOM not withstanding.

I'll post more tonight

[ActionDan]

Somewhere along the way, I lost the thread of this game.

UNVOTE:

I'm never going to be completely satisfied with GE's turn of opinion with regard to sauce and their interpretation of sauce's earlier posts giving town value to certain inane ramblings, but I've never really seen anything besides that that would make me think scum in particular. (Caveat, I haven't analyzed recent reads with a fine tune comb). Most of the game felt this way too back when I last had command of the game. The only real exception was Dunnstral, and my intention was if I were ever to switch from GE it would be to Dunnstral. That said, people seem to be liking his recent posts and I see why, there's a meta case against Tchill that he's pushing reasonably.

I remember having the following thoughts:

@NSG town reading lycan is not a mistake, even aware of what I'd only call moon-logic to connect a CES-Marquis-AD scum team later, his first big post which I called him town for was because I recognized there was evidence of critical thinking and discernment to his reads (in particular his Shea-town explanation and a quibble about my reasoning with regard to the same) that just spoke town to me.

@CES, I took a look back at Marquis' posting from the last TM 2015, and if we are comparing entrances there's not enough of a similarity to credibly invoke a meta tell.

I said I'd recheck LQ but that's a horrendous task. I'll attempt this tomorrow I guess, but I will say that in addition to my previous feeling he is town, I am so doubtful that the tone of confrontation and general spitefulness I see here towards everyone scum reading him is something scum would be like to do.

Eddie tho, I absolutely refuse to touch. My read on him stands as town.

As far as recent skimming is concerned, it's abundantly clear Ranmaru is town, if Sauce's post momo-lynch post wasn't enough already. Davsto looks town too, from what I can glean in-between the Point-quote-point catchup style.

I'm not really sure where to put my vote. It's really tempting to just buy into Tchill meta as put forward by Dunnstral, and there's not too many other people I'd vote at this stage (this list is basically just Dunnstral himself / Marquis / CES [who's recent postings I need to read more critically]) but my confidence level on anything flipping scum right now is pretty shit.

[ActionDan]

Also about EddieFenix, he's completely different than TBD here. I still lack a CHESSKID seal of approval to confirm but I would like to think I'm good enough to recognize that EF as it was obvious at the time without meta.

[ActionDan]

I reread LQ's iso. Admittedly skimmed some of the posts but I'm getting 0 scum vibes. i.e, exactly the same feelings I got before.

Postie's Eddie analysis is strikes me as a town post and is mostly correct, but I don't agree that EF's ISO this game matches his scum game. If I had to pick out a similarity it's that sometimes questions don't lead anywhere — but that's rather normal for everyone regardless.

Ranmaru, in the absence of clear scum reads, I'm sorting people into "town" and "those remaining", which is not out of line where others (yourself included) are approaching this game as well. Kagami is calling this game a town-hunt and I can't help but agree (she also suggests the scum team is competent but I don't agree that has to be the case).

So far my town column is:

TSQ, lycan, Postie, EF, LQ, Llmarble, Ranmaru , Davsto, NSG.

I'm going to read Marquis/CES/screenplay

[ActionDan]

Dodging prod. May post tonight

[ActionDan]

After reading CES/Marquis in more depth, I think CES is probably town. Almost all posts later than those in early D1 look town to me

As for Marquis my thinking is that everytime I have seen a post addressed to LQ in one way or another, either containing a vote or not, I don't think the scumread is justified. I suppose what I didn't like most was its development, from post to post, from 455 onwards. Most everything else I consider null. The reaction to Mastina's D2 contribution I can see both ways. Earlier I thought the mentions of teammates were nebulous, only intended to be seen without much purpose, but recently I can see more clearly SK's presence, though minor.

---

VOTE: Dunnstral

After screenplay's lynch and flip I looked back and thought apart from the Tchill push, there is just a void of anything there, and what little there is I don't like, D2 posting included.

The dual wagons on LQ and Eddie are alarming. They are precisely the mislynches I believe Llmarble was hoping to avoid and I very much disagree with Postie and Mathdino's assessments on Llmarble's NKA.

I still don't believe Ranmaru is scum, and likely won't ever, but I'll go ahead and look into Mastina's casework. Also hi.

At this point the only person I don't have a concrete opinion on is GE. So I guess along with actually reading D2, I'll reread him.

[ActionDan]

Although admittedly I haven't read them in depth D2, I have a solid understanding of them D1. Referring to LQ and Eddie's play here, if instead you meant the people wagoning them, I have a decent idea of why that is happening too. It's alarming in the sense that I think both are town, and now have a good amount of momentum imo behind each. I haven't drawn conclusions from that, but I felt compelled to express my snapshot feelings.

[ActionDan]

Well yes, I'm not blind.

As far as a read list goes, it's precisely the same as the last I gave except move CES to the town column.

Thus the not-town column reads as such: "Dunnstral; Marquis; GE" with the caveat that I haven't formed a complete read on GE.

To signal where I stand with both wagons mainly, but if my opinion is worth anything, perhaps slow the roll a tad and maybe even give people a chance to question me about the reads.

[ActionDan]

I'm not saying it's a valid team nor would I ever make associations without a flipped scum. I also strongly prefer Dunnstral than either of you or Marquis.

[ActionDan]

I'm not finished with my reread, but I've been noticing a strange trend where people are severely misinformed about my preferences to be scum or town. I suppose this is directed at NSG and Almost50 but I both prefer town and rate myself as much better at playing town than scum. I'm legitimately curious were your teams are getting the exact opposite idea. I could even quote myself evaluating my shortcomings in my UCV-hydra QT from deathworlders which happens to be one of 3 recent large theme games I've lost as scum each time.

So yeah,

Curious.

[ActionDan]

In time, I'm reevaluating. It's first priority though

[ActionDan]

Will post tonight. Haven't had much time lately

[ActionDan]

I don't think Eddie's flipping scum and I think he's resigned himself to be a mislynch.

I think there's been two arguments for scum eddie in this thread: 1) meta; 2) play. (perhaps sometimes conflated)

All meta cases I've seen, or meta arguments made in favor of scum!Eddie from the likes of Postie/Davsto haven't been sound. Postie's 1132 I'd call the foundation of this argument but I don't think you can draw a sufficient conclusion between the habits described therein (which I broadly agree with) and the behavior displayed this game. In this game even the fluffier posts tend to be longer (e.g., lots of the posts in the back and forth between LQ and eddie), there's more followup, and there's a fair number of reads and they come at an acceptable pace. As for 1427 I'd give credence only to the reference to the 8:4 nightless game since skimming it, I'd say it looks different than play here. At the same time, so does the scum hydra game. Again, I don't see how someone could draw a sufficient conclusion (or the accompanying "Dammit Postie, when you're right, you're right" sentence), but I can see how if you've developed a conclusion previously you could be tempted to confirm it, which it looks like happened there.

Chess kid has said that he shouldn't be an authority at meta reading eddie and that when he's been scum he's been scum from play in context of the game. On this angle I don't think his play has been particularly scummy though I do recognize that there are posts of his – to borrow CES's language (again ) – that don't say a whole lot and that have a low signal to noise ratio. I however don't think those sorts of posts were posted with malice, and I've generally been able to find the "signal" while understanding that the noise is a result of various pressures against the slot. I also think none of this is happening D2. I also have read certain posts as straight up town to me, though I highly doubt anyone else sees it the same way, for example 337 and 341 look genuine to me.

Anyway that's my take, and why I won't support his wagon. I don't think people like Postie/CES/Shea and even davsto are voting it in bad faith though. That also doesn't necessarily have to be the case with LQ/Lycan either (and I stress I still townread both of them), but their arguments for voting aren't as fresh in my mind.

I apologize to Ranmaru I don't think I'll ever get around to doing a comprehensive read list on the entire playerlist. But I also don't think that's necessary at all either.

[ActionDan]

Dunnstral/Marquis and I would state Gamma for lack and anyone else, but I don't feel comfortable giving a scum read there.

If I had to recheck my town reads I'd probably start with Postie/Lycan/Davsto. But first I'm looking into Marquis' latest posts and also looking over gamma. (I guess I should also humor mastin by looking over that case, I never did)

[ActionDan]

Tomorrow

[ActionDan]

@Dan – Math wants to hear your team's read and thoughts on tsq

My team has barely commented on this game all told, but as far as shea goes, Katsuki and chess kid have said that he should be policy lynched before lylo (this is beginning of the game) and after the last two lynches Katsuki rhetorically asked if Shea led them. I told them he was town, but it's safe to say if they were in this game they'd probably be gunning for him regardless.

The postie kill probably makes NSG town, not that that wasn't particularly unclear before but when the last post of someone's is "remember if I die, NSG is lockdown," they probably are.

VOTE: Dunnstral

After reading the latest Dunnstral posts I'm more and more confident in a scum flip here. 2258 is the definition of surface level thoughts. If you aren't prepared to come up with your own answers for questions like these then it's a post for the sake of a post. I feel similarly about posts like 1899 and 1992: Both me and TSQ have given our rationales clearly, and at least for me, this wasn't ever a new development; so adding on the "it doesn't make sense" bit there is indicative of not doing the barest of due diligence, and I'd posit simple willful ignorance. I am aware of Dunnstral not being caught up, but the way that post is written betrays an unwillingness to do so to actually attain the context of my read and potentially sort me from that.

I do think it's entirely possible for the vote switch to marquis from Eddie by Dunnstral late D2 to be attributed to the reason given but that scum would be capable of that thinking too and might see an opportunity to position better knowing eddie was doomed and would flip town.

---

Reading more of Marquis' recent posts is like reading gish gallop, 1510 and 1904 are good examples. And they don't have to be; for example despite 1477 being long, it's pretty clear. It leads me to wonder if it's intentional, and I lean yes. looking back at D2 and the back and forth between Eddie and Marquis, 1477 is rather formative, and spearheads Marquis' scum read of Eddie, serving as the foundation. The more I look back, the more I think 1477's individual arguments against Mastina are speculative without sufficient reason behind behind them. What reason is there to believe the reads list was preset to D1? Without access to the Discord, why speculate that Eddie wouldn't be swayed by Mastina "who is well known for being wrong with these [readlists] than being right"?

I don't think that's honest scumhunting. It's a much more reactionary response than it ought to be, and the followup arguments boil down to a version of "Eddie is my cw and I'm town so it makes sense Eddie is scum," (see 1904) which supports that.

[ActionDan]

I think Dunn is the most scummy player in the game after eddie.

Let's hear it

Dunnstral/Marquis and I would state Gamma for lack and anyone else, but I don't feel comfortable giving a scum read there.

If I had to recheck my town reads I'd probably start with Postie/Lycan/Davsto. But first I'm looking into Marquis' latest posts and also looking over gamma. (I guess I should also humor mastin by looking over that case, I never did)

Let's hear it: Why am I this lock scum for you. It doesn't make sense.

I kinda pity you

[ActionDan]

@ Lycan, those quotes were still saved and appeared because magic.

[ActionDan]

Are you talking about this?

Dunnstral's meta-case on Tchill seemed well intentioned. Something I'm not seeing come up in the simultaneous Dunnstral/Marquis reads is that nobody is mentioning how Dunnstral hopped off Marquis onto Tchill. Frankly, if Marquis is scum, he's getting bussed hard this game, and actually going through with it might be to the scum team's benefit. There's not much of a reason in hopping off there. Similarly if he's town, Dunnstral is hopping off one town wagon to another. Does he need to stick his neck out for that? I would argue that is actually counter-intuitive to lynching Tchill/Screenplay, because the result you'd expect is the result he received: Llamarble immediately suspected him for it, which weakened morale for lynching Tchill.

[ActionDan]

Hey Dan. I want to see you try to elaborate on your full reads list.

Sometime tomorrow

[ActionDan]

I've read Davsto in depth now.

He's town, though there isn't a specific post I can point to if I were to give reasoning to this, as it's more holistic. I think his main content, which involves talking to Postie and LQ, clearly come from a town-oriented mindset. I can clearly understand his thinking whenever he makes points or arguments. I also like his read reversal with regard to NSG.

----

TSQ, advancing the game is rather subjective. I've advanced my scum reads and given reasons for them. I've cared about who's voted what and why, especially about Eddie, so I'm wondering why you'd say I'm not. You're voting Dunn with me, so I don't know what more can I do for you. Perhaps be "high impact player"?

Gamma, I rather doubt you'd know what my scum play looks like, but can you explain where this new found confidence comes from, and precisely why you implicitly agree with TSQ's post 2393 ?

[ActionDan]

Ranmaru, reading and critically thinking about Davsto alone took 2 hours. I work slow.

That said.

If there's a specific person you want me to analyze, tell me instead. My general view of everybody is mostly the same Day-in, Day-out.

---

I might have a higher impact if people actually listened to me and considered my reads and why I have them. As far as I can tell, I think Lycan is basically the only one who really looks at them, and his response to it is to basically discredit everything I say. That's my experience so far this game. (It was a pleasant surprise to see Mastina actually care, of all people)

But that's not on me. And I'm not the type to scream "LISTEN TO ME". So that's just how it is.

---

This game and Valentine's are pretty different, and I had presence, I posted huge walls and got townread from it. In any case saying "I want to increase my meta reliance"... doesn't that strike you as fucked up. I mean why would anyone willfully want to do that when there is content which will always be a much better indicator of alignment. I mean just look at the meta arguments levied at Eddie. that didn't turn out well did it?

[ActionDan]

Coincidence. Like I said, I just spent 2 hours looking at Davsto specifically. Next up would be Gamma, then CES/Lycan

[ActionDan]

I'm just going to straight up tell you it's not Davsto and it's not NSG, Ranmaru.

Their names keep getting thrown around but they are the same caliber mislynches as Eddie. I am not always the best at finding scum, but I am particularly good at finding town. I'm sure if I'm mislynched this won't mean jack as it meant nothing when Postie and Llmarble died, but I ought to just say it, because I really do not know what would get through to you.


---

Also I mixed up Valentine's and Nightclan. Um. Valentine's was a joke. I literally gave zero fucks.

[ActionDan]

And yeah Valentine's and this game are different, you were town that game and you actually kinda mattered, here you don't really seem to be trying.

Like just no. I am spending hours on this game, even if my post count is low, I spent maybe 30 mins altogether in Valentine's

[ActionDan]

you mean beeboy was 3/3. All I did was give my vote to him.

---

Good lord everyone, please take a breather, it's not worth it.

[ActionDan]

Not true. I am looking at your reads as well. Like I know you are Town. Your previous post is just 100%Town. I know you are good because of how you analyze the game. I think people are either paranoid that you are Scum or Scum said that to discredit you, but I really think you are Town.

I'd even consider voting Dunn because of what you have said and because of your stance on Dunn. I also think shea is Scum 100%. Look, I don't say this often.. I have only done this twice, matina told me about this one time when I was asking for advice via PM, but this is one of those times where I have to use it...

Shea is Scum, just trust me on this. Really, if you see me as Town, then believe what I am telling you as if I was as close to sure as I can get in this game saying that shea is Scum. You just have to trust me on this tho. Like I said, I have only done this one other time. the time I did this before, I called out a very competent player who was a 3rd party role. It's true that the other wagon would have lynched Mafia in when I said that, but That was more like me trying it out to see if it worked. We ended up lynching the 3p and we won the game after that. I can link the game if you want.

I really do appreciate this, but I still don't think Shea is scum. I know you truly do but I have to stick with my own convictions. I'll briefly look at Shea's again though

[ActionDan]

Dan, did you mention that you think it's marquis/dunnstral? Despite my marquis read i think that makes sense, but talk to me about who the third is there.

I've said it before, but looking at associations pre-scum flip is a fool's errand. Both Dunn and Marquis are individually scummy but I don't think there's great amounts of evidence that proves they scum together or not. I would not even attempt to look for a theoretically third when I don't know if both are scum. And it's white flag so if they are, and we lynch them, game would be over. I can't stress enough how unproductive and full of pitfalls that is. Both Ranmaru and Lycan do this and they've summarily wrong thus far and are wrong now too.

[ActionDan]

After realizing Gamma has close to 300 posts and many contain quote pyramids and I've just decided not to look anymore. The way I might tackle that later is looking at votes and the reasons why they occur. When I was skimming I counted 3 unvotes and 10 vote swaps with a total of voting 7 unique people throughout the game. That's a lot and should be a good starting point to look at... for later.

In meantime it's so much easier to look at CES and Lycanfire and my immediate conclusions aren't different from the last time I looked. I still think they're both town, with maybe a couple of reservations.

The immediate thing to check with CES is his projection on his eventual vote for Eddie. It stands up to consistency, isn't a meta based read, and it's understandable. The only question remains is if it's convincing, and I don't know. It's not the deepest of reasons to say something along the lines of "eddie's posts don't add anything to the gamestate" ~ roughly translated, but it's a reason and in the absence of anything if I had similar thoughts with regard to anyone else I'd probably be pushing it too. Aside from this vote, I've either roughly agreed or could follow CES's commentary throughout the game aside from early Day 1. I'd say the only thing that looks whack to me are those percentages and I would have never even thought CES does anything like that. I thought it was a joke but I guess not. In any case I can't point to any behavior or any particular point CES has made and say "that looks like scum posting".

Lycanfire too has a vote on the Eddie wagon and it's the first thing I looked at. It's pretty awful, since Eddie went from lynchbait D1 to an acceptable vote D2 which is a complete abdication of the first read (by voting you're essentially being baited into the lynch, right?) and I don't see enough self-awareness of this in the post to be completely ok with it (although there is a bit of supplemental material in 1669 but here too, the conclusion is Eddie isn't scum). What I do see is an internal monologue justifying voting with CES, which isn't convincing either. That said, there's a lot of pretty towny looking things in plenty of other posts. To give examples I like the top paragraph of 2222 showcasing the town read on Gamma. Also a small but decent association that Marquis/LQ aren't scum together in 2365, along with in general (there and elsewhere) an appropriate amount of resistance to Ranmaru's read change swings. I also like post 1902 among the many many many posts disparaging/connecting me + CES for the way Gamma is treated here.

[ActionDan]

I'll go read up

[ActionDan]

Aright this what I'm thinking.

Firstly, Dunnstral should be the lynch. If for nothing else than for someone that constantly whines that other people don't have cases on him, it's not like he's provided any particular case on Marquis, or anyone else today aside from this:

UNVOTE: Marquis

I'll take another look - you need to talk to me about why you're voting me right now because it looks like you're just trying to get a wagon going and it irks me, I don't make much sense in that team imo

which I think is a tactic that is a crude defense defense mechanism and nothing more.

In his readslist

I can actually give you guys an idea now, I think LQ, Gamma, are town
Ranmaru next tier

Cogito ergo Sum

and TSQ, davsto, lycanfire are all null

northsidegal

,

actiondan

lean scum

Marquis

is scum

the bolded are the people that have professed a strong scum read on him and I don't think it's coincidence that they occupy the scummy slots + a null. Why is NSG a lean scum otherwise? what separates me and TSQ to Dunnstral?

---

Regarding Marquis, these last strings of posts gave me deja vu in that I don't find anything in them convincing. If he really thought Ran was the secret scumlord everyone is missing, than I feel like these types of posts should have come earlier instead of a rather tepid vote and than nothing after until he's in danger of a lynch.

---

Katsuki chimed in recently and said that he thought CES was scumposting. But he said he looked at the thread <1min so I have no idea which posts gave him that impression or why, and he hasn't been back to answer.

I don't really see it still but in CES's comments about his read on me he said that he'd have liked to see more about the townread I gave Eddie. I have to ask, did you not agree with it? originally it was because I'd never think Eddie would take a scum PM as long as his team had any town PMs, which is why I thought there was 99.9% chance eddie was town coming into the game. But considering your vote D2, I highly doubt I'd have changed your mind and you were cognizant of it, it seems. So why the need to reiterate it to you? would that have made you unvote Eddie?

---

LQ asked my thoughts on NSG, and she's a never lynch option. I've never seen a NSG post I disliked this game + the Postie kill implies NSG is town when D2 people thought she was shaky (as apparently skirt skirt agrees with [as does chess kid]).

Speaking of Chesskid wants me to lynch Marquis. Kagami says she doesn't know who is scum but hopes I choose correctly and Smocaine doesn't exist

[ActionDan]

I can actually give you guys an idea now, I think LQ, Gamma, are town
Ranmaru next tier
Cogito ergo Sum and TSQ, davsto, lycanfire are all null
northsidegal, actiondan lean scum
Marquis is scum

UNVOTE: Marquis

I'll take another look - you need to talk to me about why you're voting me right now because it looks like you're just trying to get a wagon going and it irks me, I don't make much sense in that team imo

why should I reevaluate? I've gone over the same posts from Dunnstral and Marquis and CES plenty of times, and others besides. none of them have flipped. I'm unsure what you'd want me to reevaluate and based on what. I will forever admit that I ought to simply "evaluate" Gamma, because I don't have the clear read there, but otherwise I have a pretty good idea of everyone else.

I still think LQ is town. Everytime there's some heated back and forth (with shea e.g.) the read gets a little fuzzy but then there's generally some (imo) :good posting: a bit later to reaffirm it. If you want I can dig up a couple.

[ActionDan]

the quote fairy strikes again

[ActionDan]

Marquis every time – see the bottom half of 2318 for my reasons.

wrt that quote, I'm a rather non-confrontational person by nature, though I'd say I've been argumentative and sometimes emotional in mafia on occasion, something I'd rather avoid here in this game. So he got that right, but beyond that that post gives me no insight otherwise.

[ActionDan]

I think so

[ActionDan]

It's much the same I gave to Shea actually

[ActionDan]

Same reason I mentioned the "high impact player" quip in 2419, that's just not who I am and I've never been that person. In every practically all the mafia games I've played in my life that's been the case. And essentially, what shea is accusing me of is not being that person. To my mind anyway, and I don't think it's too difficult to see it that way, as I interpret LQ to be.

p-edit: It was bizarre. That's what I mean by things get fuzzy at points like that. unsure how you're relating both posts.

[ActionDan]

Considering you've given Dunnstral more clemency than anyone would ever deserve, I'd say you're the one doing the most harm. There is more than just one aspect to my case on Dunnstral. And the one you reference has nothing to do with "intent" (unsure what this means in context anyway). It's showcasing hypocrisy. Try reading a little deeper.

[ActionDan]

What does scum "intent" mean to you? If it means advancing a scum agenda, I'd say Dunn did his fair share pushing Tchill/Screenplay to lynch. And after that, lurking enough to not get noticed, is the motivation that describes most of his posts. I don't refuse to look deeper in LQ's posts. I've gone over them twice so far this game and thought he was town both times. A random post in 500 is not going to make me randomly reconsider if I don't think it's explicitly scummy, which that post isn't. Like it's bizarre because it's a post that's inexplicable. Who calls someone else a lying snake for something so innocuous as a theory post? It obviously doesn't increase a townread, it distracts from it, but it's not something I'd ever see and go "damn that's scummy" because it isn't that either.

you're acting if that's the end-all be-all when it isn't.

[ActionDan]

Yeah I see you don't have a response to me.

[ActionDan]

----
Null
----

Dunnstral: Repeating what I have said earlier: The only thing I get is null. I do like his votes, on Marquis, and his push on T-chill did seem like he had conviction for it. He has been present, and voting, but that's about it. Not seeing any scum intent from him, though. A50 does have him in the scum pool, which is the only thing I have in the back of my mind to keep in mind when reading Dunnstral. An important post I think, is his #2034, which states he isn't invested. The good thing to keep in mind is, that even though he isn't invested, he's still present. || I haven't really seen much from him today, he's just wondering about the kill for now. If we don't lynch scum before him for at least today / tomorrow, then he needs to die.

Yet, I do like his reads list. It would show that he's 2/3 before I even re-considered. Null.

Like really. You change your reads list half a dozen times. And you give him credit for something that's completely throwaway on his end (and honestly on yours too). Like take half a second to listen to yourself. You're delusional.

[ActionDan]

Yeah I see you don't have a response to me.

I was typing up something towards Lycanfire. What's the purpose of this post?

I'm angry that's why. You asked me to evaluate LQ's posts in bad faith and you know it. And we were having a conversation and you veered off to tell lycanfire to vote me. So you can have that snide remark.

I also am 100% betting that you asking me for a sorted read's list is in bad faith also but here you go:

Never lynch:

NSG
Davsto
Shea
Ranmaru, though I dunno how I feel about this anymore. Probably still town just literally leading town off a cliff every chance you get

Pretty much never lynch but sometimes I have the slightest bit of doubt

LQ

People I think are town with a couple resrevations

Lycanfire
CES

I really don't know where to put this person but this isn't a null category

Gamma

scummy

Marquis
Dunn

[ActionDan]

Yet you don't even seem to change yours. I want to see your reads list now.

I dunno maybe we should try lynching my main scum read.

I asked you before but why should I change mine. Why is that scummy not too? I've been incorporating new info when it becomes available.

[ActionDan]

I think LQ is thinking critically about who to lynch and why, for starters, and other things besides. For example I think something like 2688 encapsulates that, and it's a town post in my eyes.

As for gamma, I will never rely on someone else's read and definitely not on a meta read. If I remember correctly, Shea said gamma unvotes a lot, or something to that effect. And for you, it was something along the lines of gamma being unsure of himself when town and more confident as scum. I don't remember completely. I read both once upon a time. In any case I think that's my problem to solve and just because I physically put gamma "low" doesn't mean he is there in reality. He could be the paragon of towniness if I read him that way; I just have to actually do that. But I really really really really really really really don't like the prospect and the pain that will entail if I steel myself and read all the posts and all the quote pyramids in them.

[ActionDan]

My team is playing



with regard to Ranmaru in our PT.

I think it couldn't be more obvious NSG is town here, especially over the last couple pages, and that all the nettling from Ranmaru is almost to a T the exact same treatment I received just prior.

But really who posts this:

This video is for Quick, NSG, and Action Dan.

after successfully leading two mislynches for two days in a row. It's either arrogance of the highest caliber or scum posturing. Not to mention it's almost as wrong as wrong can be.

Similarly just isoing NSG over the last couple pages makes it apparent that, even discarding individual reads, her interactions with LQ don't look anywhere close to S/S talking to each other. Yet in whatever bundle of interactions that make us all magically scum together these aren't taken into any kind of consideration by Ranmaru.

Our team is looking into Postie's kill again and Kagami's input is that as someone who didn't have strong scum reads besides eddie and was mislynchable herself, a Postie kill signifies either correct town reads or potentially threatening scum reads. Originally me and chess kid thought that just meant NSG was town but Kagami thinks that the symptom that led to that kill could very well be RC's featured Ranmaru scum read.

Also for someone who complains I don't factor the meta cases on gamma into a read of gamma, Ranmaru is paying absolutely NO credence to Postie's read on NSG which I believe to at least some extent was based on meta, and is coming from a confirmed town.

---

I think this game would break open with a Dunnstral lynch, still.

But I humbly ask EVERYONE voting NSG to vote me instead. I'm that confident, and at least if I die now, NSG doesn't get mislynched later (unless this town is literally braindead. My fingers are crossed though)

[ActionDan]

That's nice but I barely remember our hydra game together, it was years ago, and I'm pretty sure I flaked out. The Political corruption mafia game you keep bringing up to meta me is like 4+ years old too I think.

Tell me, you said you had the scum on lock. Did you lead two mislynches two days in a row, then flip your reads lists a half dozen times then finally propose a 3-man scum team without flips and were right?

Because I highly doubt it. But here's your opportunity to prove me wrong.

[ActionDan]

Dan, my biggest issue with NSG was her catchup where she displayed a fundamental lack of curiosity about the lynch that was on the block who she was null town reading.

When I as town catchup on games, thats the NUMBER ONE thing I'm interested in, especially as we approach deadline. When I'm scum I tend to just look for my name.

What do you think of that? How can you explain that catch up from a town mindset?

I read back over D2 with your iso and her iso and the vote counts from math blade.

I understand where you're coming from here. If you were ambivalent about the D2 wagon, and couldn't determine whether it would flip town or scum (which is documented in a couple of NSG's posts), I do think a natural reaction would be to try to do your best to determine that. However, if in catchup mode, there's going to be a lot of different priorities, not least of which is documenting and explaining your own scum reads. And in doing that, I think NSG thought if she was able to get something concrete out of it, she'd come to know more about what to think of Eddie and his wagon. In my opinion it's an indirect approach and I can understand why it rubbed you the wrong way, but looking at her posts I believe it's a legitimate approach even as Eddie's wagon continued to grow and grow.

Now saying something like "I think we have to lynch eddie" or that abouts does raise a few eyebrows but a liberal interpretation would be that NSG didn't think anyone would get past that read (think of Postie there) and unto to any of her own without the flip. I still think her posts around then and after with you look very town to me.

I'd ask if you think holistically if you think her play has been scummy aside from this episode. Because though I don't see it there, I get why you would. However, I also don't see it anywhere else, and particularly, currently. Do you?

[ActionDan]

Well yes, I'm not blind.

As far as a read list goes, it's precisely the same as the last I gave except move CES to the town column.

Thus the not-town column reads as such: "Dunnstral; Marquis; GE" with the caveat that I haven't formed a complete read on GE.

To signal where I stand with both wagons mainly, but if my opinion is worth anything, perhaps slow the roll a tad and maybe even give people a chance to question me about the reads.

Also AD hasn't really shown much motivation to sort past having these reads.

And btw on the initial reason for ISO: a townread of eddie, but none of this bravado? ahahaha AD you've made some fatal missteps.
VOTE: ActionDan
ESKETIT

I feel like I keep asking Ran this but I'll ask you too.

Why should I feel the need to resort anything when my scum reads are unflipped and my town reads have flipped town thus far. T-chill was the only person of the flipped people so far that I thought had an ok chance of flipping scum.

Also in case you haven't noticed, It's D3 not D2 and we've mislynched twice. It's getting increasingly worrisome that town is getting in it's own way to mislynch people like NSG. You don't particularly seem to get that.

The only missteps I've made this game was not being louder. Now I am. I find it jarring that that of all things is your motivation for your vote. I suppose you can vote me in place of NSG too but I don't know why you scum read her either

lots of cuts

[ActionDan]

@Dan, could you get to that thing I wanted you to do?

Sorry what was that thing? I must have missed it and don't see it in your last few posts

[ActionDan]

Where he is saying that he has high confidence scum reads but not high confidence scum reads together.

If that video saying "It's you" on repeat wasn't enough then these are posts attempting to link LQ to me and NSG via "distracting"

Hey Shea. Recent pages: I push Action Dan, and NSG, and LQ does his distraction thing again. I think your biggest mistake is town reading him. I want us to talk through that read. Especially the counter wagon thing. Since I pushed his wagon D1 especially. I think everyone has to make sense of LQ's whole play or otherwise he will destroy the towns chances of being able to rationally find scum with his noise.

What does scum "intent" mean to you? If it means advancing a scum agenda, I'd say Dunn did his fair share pushing Tchill/Screenplay to lynch. And after that, lurking enough to not get noticed, is the motivation that describes most of his posts. I don't refuse to look deeper in LQ's posts. I've gone over them twice so far this game and thought he was town both times. A random post in 500 is not going to make me randomly reconsider if I don't think it's explicitly scummy, which that post isn't. Like it's bizarre because it's a post that's inexplicable. Who calls someone else a lying snake for something so innocuous as a theory post? It obviously doesn't increase a townread, it distracts from it, but it's not something I'd ever see and go "damn that's scummy" because it isn't that either.

you're acting if that's the end-all be-all when it isn't.

Lurking enough to not get noticed is also what you have been doing. Yet also town reading everyone. Your presence has been very very lacking, especially in Day 2 and Day 3. I think it's that town is generally towning so hard that it's hard for you to truly fake reads. I'm not ruling out that Dunn may be scum, but I'm more confident you are. LQ was using that argument to distract from Shea making a correct assessment on your and Davsto's play.

(I know I hate how people ignore my reads so I'll give LQ a pity fuck- 2410 is over the top to 2426 is accusing Shea of doing something he isn't doing... Though I suppose that by attacking Shea's premise "once you're caught you're dead" is also attacking the Marquis wagon? I just don't view any of this as actually town, so seeing this as an attack on Shea, or the credibility of the Marquis wagon all get outpaced by the idea that LQ is just trying to create uncertainty tomorrow.)

Thank you. Out of Marquis and CES, I'd choose CES. Yet, I don't think either may be scum at this point, and prefer an Action Dan lynch. I highly agree with what you said, and I think I understand why LQ stated all that. #2393 is the source of all of that. I thought it may be likely LQ and Shea were having a calculated fight to distance, since Shea just parked his vote on LQ while I was telling him to vote Dan. Thing is I got Shea to consider Dan/Davsto as likely scum and LQ went crazy from there. I know everyone is saying 'Dan and NSG are town because they wouldn't pick it!' yet it doesn't match up with their actions in thread. Nor does LQ's. I think this is likely throwing us all on the loop, while Dan/NSG are being sort of in the background. (While LQ is active)

With the Postienightkill, I'm also currently thinking that one potential purpose of it would be to make nsg look more town and thereby more clout to steer the lynch away from Marquis. Obviously, that does explicitly require Marquisscum but there are definitely scum teams for which that would make sense as a tactic (e.g. Marquis-nsg-Dunnstral). I think it's probably still more likely that it points to a relatively confident scum team (e.g. GE-AD-TSQ, but let's not actually entertain the possibility of Marquis being town if we can avoid it). I should do some calculations as a sanity check but it shouldn't matter too much Today either way - Marquis is the way forward.

Your #2715 is a solid point on Action Dan. Something else I have been considering is that Llama was killed to put suspicion towards CES / Shea. Postie kill to put suspicion on Dunnstral. I think a likely team is [Action Dan, Quick, NSG]. I've noted that NSG hasn't been as interested in sorting you as she states she would want

you

to be. She's not really active as much as I'd like, but her #2581 pinged me similar to an Earlier AD post: #1698. Her post, seems like she wasn't actively engaged yet she was reading through enough to know the vote count, and when Shea puts Marquis at L-1, she insists I unvote quickly! It just rubs me off the wrong way and it's very similar to AD. The team of [AD, Quick, NSG] Seems competent and confident enough to pick scum since people state that they each would pick town. Then Dan's #234 shows he believes Mulch picked scum over LQ or anyone else on his team. For LQ, I think this post and further interactions confirm LQ as scum: #2725. He keeps telling me 'this is what I do as town' yet he doesn't answer how what he is doing is helping town because he can't answer that. LQ is entirely progressing the scum win condition, not town win condition. If you can see with his persistent omgus on me, he is willing to put up a fight.

I don't even know where this charge on nsg comes from; I've definitely been engaging her (just in my last post I encouraged her to continue our main strand of conversation).

I actually agree that this looks bad on her.

Gamma I'm telling you, Quick is scum trying to deflect. Simple as.

I'm also pretty sure there was a ranmaru post saying me and NSG town reading each other is another linking factor but I can't find it.
I mean Ranmaru said Gamma has "some good points" and the only "point" I've seen is that I'm willing to go to bat for NSG here via my own lynch instead of hers and that makes me scum because I didn't do the same with Eddie. Same idea

---

A50 is talking out of his asshole. Any reasons for that particular statement?

[ActionDan]

I will ask him. Dan, why did you not continue the conversation from two oages ago? Also, I want you to talk to me on my reasons for suspecting NSG.

I was in the shower than made lunch? this was like, what an hour or so.

Your reasons for suspecting NSG are what; half borrowed from Shea in that she fence-sat on Eddie and half that she has bad interactions with CES?

I'll delve into them deeper but I want to make the following comments:

Not too long ago you were pushing CES, and aside from that, your reads lists changes frequently, with paragraphs with basically the exact same content in them jostling up and down your read list. And after this experience I'm not inclined to take you seriously at all. I know how you got your read on me, and it boils down to you pulling a Mitch McConnell complaining I didn't do enough to stop people from voting Eddie.

Nor have you ever extended me the same courtesy by looking at my own cases aside from saying "I don't agree with them" or else I do believe you cherrypicked some particular point with regard to Dunnstral to attempt to refute. Can't remember it offhand.

What's important is that NSG is quite obvious town right now. You seem unable to see that.

[ActionDan]

But you still need to tell me why you misconstrued Llama's post

I think people misconstrue which one I'm talking about:

Not 886

But rather 1160, that's the one where he calls Eddie/LQ lynchbaity, though not town. That's the only marble post I've ever referenced.

[ActionDan]

Alright then, that's the only Llamar post you've referred to?

yup

[ActionDan]

CES why do you have 0 interest in lynching Dunnstral?

Is it just because he's voting Marquis?

[ActionDan]

oh wait he isn't

[ActionDan]

The reason there isn't a lot to go on for Dunnstral is that there isn't a lot there. He was most active (which is a huge overstatement) D1, with most notably presenting and pushing a T-chill scum meta case.

He's still very likely scum from what he has posted that isn't part of the above.

[ActionDan]

Dan, you never actually continued this conversation. I wanted to see how you would reply. Basically, in that game I was wrong at times but in the end I was able to come out right. Usually it takes me a few fights and arguments to sort people via interactions with myself, and then that's when I find scum. Now you are asking me if I lead two mislynches in a row. I contributed to the Screenplay mislynch, that is true. It was mostly Llama/Shea/Myself. Eddie, was lead by Postie. I was only the fifth vote at first, and then you came in and posted and I interacted with you, then I voted other suspects in the same day before finally hammering Eddie. Now, if you are concerned about this, why have you not asked Shea the same question?

If you actually cared much you'd link the game. And you're never going to be right when you don't have either of Marquis or Dunnstral in your lynchpool, and have me instead. I still don't believe that in a game where you said "I have scum on lock" could even resemble anything close to this game where you absolutely don't. And you changed your reads lists (for the better since NSG isn't there anymore) again so the whole "It's you!" "I'm right, I've got them on lock this time" is clearly false, and I'm going to bet it'll change again and again. Yes? Yes.

You're right you didn't lead both directly, others were first and in the foreground, but you did cheerlead both; screenplay was always a top-3 scum read and Eddie went 2nd->4th->1st in scum reads. In response to your whataboutism with Shea, unlike you he didn't attempt to base his entire read on me by blaming me for his part in mislynching Eddie.

CES: You say holding mislynches against townies is something scum really like to do. I'd broadly agree! But how would you respond to Katsuki that it's standard scum play to cast suspicion on others for his own play after pushing two mislynches? Because that's what he sees and is telling me to powerlynch Ranmaru.

2ndly, I have defended Eddie and called him town or went against cases on him at almost every opportunity I could and certainly every time anyone has asked me about it, which incidentally on D2, was more than a week before his lynch. So maybe you should question your own recall of this game and the events in it.

I absolutely agree with your Marquis read, though not quite for the reasons you've given. I'm not great when it comes to evaluating "would player XXX do this to look town," but I agree with the your assessment of those posts were I to know he was scum a priori.

If this were a choice between you and Marquis, I'd be voting Marquis. However, I think it's incumbent on you to look at Dunnstral again, and again.

That applies to basically most everyone; there's a lot of missing the forest for the trees going on here. Marquis and Dunnstral are those trees.

Marquis is absolutely dodging posting while he doesn't have votes on him and Dunnstral's last post about "oh marquis isn't here, I hope he shows up to talk to me before deadline" is just unbelievable.

Some cuts

[ActionDan]

I don't know what to think of CES, and yes I will look at this game some more and explain some reads

If CES were scum I'd be looking back at those as moderately suspicious I'm sure if that's what you're getting at, I need to look at him separately though

Reminder that none of this happened

[ActionDan]

The thing about Shea and LQ, and I'm speaking to both you here, is that no matter whose fault it is, or even if one of you is scum for whatever reasons, no one will ever go back and look at all this because we'd lose our sanity. If I were to even attempt to sort all that out, besides numbing my mind, by this point I have my own biases and would never be able to get anything from it. Maybe I'm wrong and it could be done, but as of right now I don't think it's worth the attempt. If anyone else feels differently, by all means.

[ActionDan]

I see you're running out of room to find reasons to scum read me, now relying on me not getting/producing a read on Gamma. That's fine you can continue to do that, as well as saying Gamma is low/null when that's not the nature of my views towards him. Nor is he anywhere close to a priority today.

You're definitely right that I was writing you off as town, mostly from one of Sauce's post and continually pushing out huge walls, but I'm wising up now.

And I'm not failing to undermine you, I'm doing it. I even got YOU off of NSG! score 1 for me! Hopefully this day ends in a Dunnstral lynch and then we'll really be cooking.

[ActionDan]

@lycan wrt lead lists: being asked by Ranmaru it is [nefarious]. Especially when it's been pretty consistent throughout (I've given them before), when my scum reads are obvious and continually being pushed, and the last time I was asked for a specific opinion (on LQ) it was immediately turned against me. And what has he been doing with it now? Criticizing the physical placement of Gamma on it and harping about how it's so static, while never explaining how that's supposed to be scummy.

So it's being used as fodder to extract whatever argument comes into his head to paint me as scum, as I expected.

p edit: About gamma, theoretically sure, I should be getting a read on him and putting in the work to do it. But tell me, how much do you really care? Like my read will probably not be particularly important unless I scum read him in this environment, and my read doubtful would effect the scum reads I do have. So tell me how a read on him one way or the other significantly "progresses" the game. Because at this point I honestly think it would be useful only in the sense of getting people (like yourself) to maybe shut up about it. We are close to deadline with wagons on CES/Dunnstral and I'm sure you could probably get a decent one on me for sure. That's where my focus is.

[ActionDan]

Action Dan

: Sheep me. Trust me, remember when we hydrad? Did I not find scum? I want you to trust me, since you say you are having trouble finding scum. Follow me.

Shea

: I want you on this wagon. I want you to reconsider what Reck said. It doesn't look like anyone is interested in Dunn right now. Join me.

Davsto

: I also want you on this wagon. I am thinking CES is likely town. You town read me, so please join me.

Quick

: Join me on Marquis, since you null read him right now. You shouldn't have a problem joining then. Why wagon a person you consistently town read for most of the game? Get on this magnificent wagon with me.

Dunnstral

: Vote Action Dan with me. You scum read him. Join me.

Marquis

: Vote Action Dan, you have him above me and Dunnstral. Join me.

CES

: You have him as null. (And you are questioning why you had town vibes from him) Realize you might be wrong on Marquis, but the same profile applies to Dan, but even more so as he has been very invisible.

Shea

: I was misguided with my read on you. Please sheep me once again, as LQ has confused me. I think this is our best shot at lynching scum.

Gamma

: Vote Dan with me.

Let us lynch Dan today.

CES

: Join me. You scum read him as well.

Marquis

: Join me. You have him above Dunn and Myself.

Lycanfire

: Join me.

Dunnstral

: Join me, you scumread Action Dan.

Unvote; Vote: Action Dan

I also just want to point out how hilariously tone-deaf these things are. every. single. time.

[ActionDan]

Well for starters I remember thinking when I saw the first of these "dude, I scum read marquis, he'd be my #2 lynch after Dunnstral, why are you invoking a hydra game I didn't do shit in to trust you just to tell me to vote my other scum read read."

But I also think telling the 2-3 pervious people you've just voted go "follow me, friends!" is just as much if not more so lacking in awareness.

[ActionDan]

Most of my town reads are pretty solid. so that's one premise that isn't true, and even if it were (say I wasn't sold on NSG/Davsto/LQ/Shea) what would that have to do with Gamma. You're just saying that like it means something.

There's a good amount in 2760 that I'd call pretty circumstantial at best, inactivity, timing of vote?, staying under the radar, 5-year old meta from one game where I played with you. There's also a vapid point point about looking at Dunnstral's intent (and Marquis, of which I don't know what you thought of his "intent" was voting you) which is what I was referring to earlier about you cherrypicking a single argument out of my points against Dunnstral. Which, incidentally I'm happy to go over since you can't seem to move past a "null" read on him ad infinitum.

But I really don't care to refute your cases against me. Those are truly the disingenuous ones.

[ActionDan]

Fumes and hot air will only propel you so far.

Your 1) 2) 3) points are laughable at best. For the first two, you're attempting to turn null-tells into scum tells and the 3rd lacks the rather important context that I spent the first half of the day voting Gamma and unvoted the post before, and was attempting to find another option for my vote that explicitly wouldn't be gamma. I think that should be a clear signal to everyone that you're attempting to find everything and anything to throw at me and call it scum motivation.

I mean that and you barely rely on the content I do produce to form a read aside from crying Boo-hoo he should have been more forceful in telling us not to lynch Eddie! the monster!

[ActionDan]

Also, I don't think that someones lynch pool remaining mostly static is a scum tell in any way. I think the same people are scum that I thought were scum yesterday. For the same reasons. Not much has changed in that regard imo.

This is still an outstanding question for you Ranmaru and one that I've brought up repeatingly too before.

[ActionDan]

Waiting with bated breath

[ActionDan]

For your page top

[ActionDan]

I'm going to digest that in the morning.

[ActionDan]

I'm still going through all of it. so many links. Been thinking about it off and on.

[ActionDan]

Spoiler: NSG's CES casework

Cogito Ergo Sum is Scum.

1. Vote / Reads Progression

Let's start back at the start of the game. CES votes llamarble and never explains why. He later calls for dueling marble-marquis wagons, and again never explains why. Llamarble calls him out on this, saying that he doesn't understand why he'd want that as town. This is CES' response:

It's not always about you, 'marble.

He later describes this vote as something he chose to do instead of putting down a serious vote on the marquis wagon.

He calls Marquis the scummiest of the three lurkers (Dunn, Marquis, Wgeurts), and again doesn't explain why. He makes a lot of posts just calling marquis scummy around this time still without explaining why before finally talking about it in 526. What were his reasons? "Awkward tone" and meta from one scumgame in 2015 that he never really explains in any depth. As far as I can tell,

these are still the reasons he's scumreading Marquis

, along with lurking. It goes without saying, but these reasons are both very easily fakeable and are apparently good enough for CES for that single read to last the entire game.

He briefly votes postie, perhaps influenced by marble's questioning of postie in the previous post. He again only explains this much later, saying that postie was more looking good than actually scumhunting. In that same post he says that he obviously agrees with the gist of the eddie case, but that he still thinks it would be an easy thing for postie to focus on if she were scum. All of these opinions are contradictory to eachother.

His Gamma vote comes for Gamma's case in 702, but again he only barely explains this until much later, with a vague comment about Gamma's case being "accusatory" in 823. He goes into more detail in 1567, saying that Gamma was being awkward and looked concerned with how justified his votes were. This is another weak read, and he pretty much entirely drops this point and doesn't bring it up again – you know, after the consensus largely came to be that gamma is town.

I've talked a lot about CES' read on tchill/screenplay, but let's really go over his progression there.
662 – Brings up two points that make tchill scummy, one point that makes him towny. Describes it as a "wagon driven by relatively crude heuristics."
820 – Pretty much doesn't take any stance on tchill, talks about how the lurking doesn't affect his read.
1025 – The swap makes him feel better about the wagon.
1179 – Argues that screen being willing to swap means it's more likely that the tchill slot is scum here.
1185 – When responding to ran, describes how the scumread on postie seems more convincing to him than the eddie part, which "doesn't really sway [him]".
1217 – Hammer.

CES says that he detailed the nature of his read change but he really didn't in any truly explanatory way. He's said how the odds of hitting scum in tchill went up for him, but the only reasons in his iso for this are the swap and screen's desire to survive.

Day two, back on the marquis wagon. Later, when Tsq asks him why he's not on the eddie wagon when he's stated that he agrees with postie's case, he says that that doesn't help with the goal of lynching two scum. What?

He later jumps on the Eddie wagon with no real indication as to why the switch.

Finally, day three, back on the marquis wagon.

---

Let's examine all of the reasons CES has voted people for, this game:
-Lurking
-Awkward wording
-Looking more good than actually solving the game (this vote never went anywhere, however)
-RVS? (Llamarble)

First of all, these reasons are, as a whole, surface level. It was llamarble who said that if CES doesn't lynch scum then he's probably scum himself – given that this is what CES has been pushing people on, I'm inclined to trust that. Next, all of his scumreads have been opportunistic – on players that looked lynchable (notable is that dunnstral is an exception to this, with a very weak reason from CES – this lends credence to my view of the scumteam). Marquis has always been a viable wagon. Tchill and eddie both actually went through. Gamma looked viable for a bit, and that's when CES voted / scumread him. His postie vote followed llamarble placing a bit of pressure there and again stopped afterwards. It's all agenda-driven.

A quick review of team mafia 2015 indicated that he didn't vote lurkers all the time. He seemed to have fairly well-developed reads that don't compare with his fairly robotic scumhunting this game.

---

2. Undeveloped Townreads

Here's a list of every time i could fine where CES calls someone "town":

662 – He talks about a "nice town tell" from tchill but still evidently scumreads him (if his behavior is anything to go off of).

1179 – Says that i had a "townish line".

1397 – Describes how one of quick's posts shows a pro-town mindset, but ultimately comes to the non-conclusion of "It's not hard to find scummy posts by Lickitung but it's not hard to find townie posts by him either."

1596 – Calls lycan town for scumreading him, calls tsq "sheaey", so wants to sheep llamarble's read on him.

1801 – Says that Ran is his strongest townread.

2223 – Says that davsto generally sounds town, but that he needs to take a closer look. This goes away after davsto votes him.

2610 – Quick is solidly town.

I'm pretty sure that's it. He's barely mentioned a large amount of the playerlist, and for the reads that he has mentioned, his reasons are always self-admittedly weak.

He's keeping his options open.

Look back at team mafia 2015 – a huge difference in how he approaches townreads. He's not playing the same at all, and i'm fairly confident it's because he's scum.

---

3. NKA

Let's examine llama and postie and their relation to cogito ergo sum.

First, llamarble's mentions of cogito ergo sum.
215 – Says to lynch CES in lylo no matter what. Can't imagine why CES called for dueling Marble/Marquis wagons if he was town.
343 – Calls CES null, and makes the point that strong players always appear town early on.
347 – Says again to lynch CES in lylo, mentions that he's been buddied by CES as scum before and to not let it happen this game.
408 – Calls CES the first alternate to his scumreads
516 – Put CES in his scumteam.
537 – Reiterates to lynch CES in lylo.
582 – Says that he could could "easily believe" a scumteam with CES in it.
664 – Same as before.
875 – Lays out a lynch order where CES is first on the chopping block if tchill flips town.
930 – This one is important – says to give CES some time,

but if town isn't winning before LyLo, CES is scum

. He also advocates lynching whoever is left in lylo that should've been nightkilled.
1146 Says that CES should be lower on Ran's readslist.
1160 – Places CES in the category of "don't let live to lylo".

As an aside, Llamarble's thoughts on marquis were that there were decent to very good reasons to townread him, and his lynch order had town leaving him alive until lylo. The llamarble kill day one is a point against marquis scum unless marquis is also scum with one of the people in marble's lynch order.

When it comes to postie, there's very little indication that postie would have gone after marquis and she had me as locktown. Her death clears the way for both of those pushes. This point less directly related to CES scum but still something i'd like to talk about later.

---

Now, a look at cogito ergo sum's use of NKA / his use of dead people's reads.

In 1557, CES says that 1160 would be where we should look given the marble kill, but the readslist in that post was heavily based around tchill being scum. One of the things marble was incredibly adamant on was that we not let CES get to lylo if town isn't winning by then. His readslist also wasn't lynch from the bottom up – he explicitly said that there was scum in the good but hard to read players.

In 2690, he says that if he doesn't care about marble's reads then nobody will as a defense of his TSQ read. Not only is this not true in the first place, but it's kind of a misrepresentation of what marble had made clear – people who are alive at lylo when they shouldn't be need to be lynched. The fact that he doesn't mention this nuance or seem to take it into account doesn't do anything to defend his weak TSQ read, and only furthers the idea of a scumteam there.

Let's look at another TSQ interaction based on marble's reads. In 2742, CES says that he feels good about sheeping marble's townread on TSQ because they know each other in real life and thus marble should have a good idea of how to read him. This again is just selectively choosing parts of what marble said.

2223 – Says that postie was killed because scum preferred to take out a scummier player with unknown reads, when postie had known reads outside of eddie.

2334 – Argues that the postie kill was to make me look better and to give me more sway to steer the lynch away from marquis. What? How does postie being dead, someone who had me as locktown, give me

more

town sway as opposed to less? If the scumteam actually cared about protecting marquis, they probably would've killed the person hard tunnelling him from day one – CES himself. The fact that he doesn't recognize this and this whole point are incredibly disingenuous.

When it comes to what dead townies have said and what the nightkills mean, CES cherrypicks the points that agree with him, ignores the ones that don't and makes disingenuous arguments.

---

4. VCA

I'm confident in saying that cogito ergo sum has voted only town this entire game.

The cogito ergo sum wagon never moves anywhere despite nobody really townreading him. Here are the people who have voted CES:
Day 1 – {Lycan, Ran, NSG}
Day 2 – {Eddie, Lycan}
Day 3 – {Lycan, Davsto, NSG, Ran}

Comparatively, the people who have voted marquis (excluding rvs) are:
Day 1 – {Davsto, Dunn, CES, Llama, Quick, Gamma}
Day 2 – {Ran, Eddie, Gamma, CES, Quick, Dunn}
Day 3 – {CES, Quick, Dunn, Ran, Gamma, TSQ}

The cogito ergo sum wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. The marquis wagon does, the same way the eddie wagon did. If cogito ergo sum were town, his wagon should have taken off at some point during this game, but it hasn't – not even after ran was canvassing pretty hard for it.

---

5. Defense of himself

Cogito ergo sum's defense of himself is notably lacking and inconsistent at times.

1662 – Ran brings up multiple valid points against CES, some of which i've talked about myself. His response is just to call the paragraph lots of spin with little substance and provide some self-meta of him as town.

2003 – His defense of the tchill lynch is to go back to his percentages without going in-depth as to why the percentages changed.

2279 – Discredits my push on him by discrediting both of my teammates' opinions, then tries to reduce my scumread on him to just his being on the lynches.

2534 – People (ran) apparently take this as some incredible reason to townread CES. I've responded to this already, but i'd like to reiterate some points.

CES says that he detailed the nature of his read change on tchill – my point is that his read change is justified with incredibly poor reasoning.
I made the point that he wasn't gamesolving, and he responded that he was solving the game and wasn't interested in "brownie points". He's not solving the game. He's not really coming up with any possible partners for marquis, he's not giving any thoughts as to what happens if he's wrong, he's not really sorting anyone else or looking for townreads (as we've gone over).

2571 – CES argues that scum marquis could just be saying that he townreads CES while a buddy of Marquis' pushes on CES, but he doesn't actually say who that buddy would be. In this same post he also talks about how he didn't like the tchill wagon, inconsistent with what he's been trying to tell me about his reasons for switching.

2690 – Basically completely ignores the question of what happens if marquis ends up being town.

2742 – Again discredits reads from my teammates saying that math is uninvested in the game.

---

6. Conclusion

Cogito ergo sum has exclusively voted town, and has voted the low-hanging fruit in marquis every day so far.

He has almost no townreads – he's keeping his options open.

He's avoided talking about what happens if marquis flips town – again, keeping his options open.

He's selectively and disingenuously used NKA and the reads of dead townies to push things like the marquis wagon.

His wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. This stands in contrast to other town wagons that we've seen in the game.

Cogito Ergo Sum is Scum.

Ok I've gone through all of this, with the use of CES's iso as a reference. I am aware of CES's long posts and I'll read them later but I want to just post my initial thoughts first without any other influences. I think it's a bit of a waste of space to go through each individual point so I'll just address the conclusions, and since I have my own thoughts after, I'm going to do what I normally would never and bold my reactions inside the quote below.

6. Conclusion

Cogito ergo sum has exclusively voted town, and has voted the low-hanging fruit in marquis every day so far.

Maybe. (ignoring gamma ftm) I don't think there's substantial reason to think Marquis is town, now or ever, although I do agree that if CES flips scum that'd be the best one I'd ever see. This point is also related to how one views CES's vote on Eddie. I do think there's sufficient progression that that raw vote in 1597 isn't unexpected, and incidentally the translation to "I want to lynch 2 scum instead of 1" meant "I think Eddie is scum but is the easier lynch, so better to vote Marquis now". So it comes down to whether CES's read on Eddie is believable. I'll say what I said before, that it's impossible to know, at least for me. It becomes less believable the more you give credence to the following thought "CES being alive near lylo without scum dead means he's the scum" which I'm sure is what you've got to be thinking here. I'll talk about more of his votes below though.

He has almost no townreads – he's keeping his options open.

I broadly agree. I don't find fault with certain things, like Davsto becoming a stale/"evaporating" read after being a townread, but I'd tend to think scumreads/townreads would have been more palpably defined aside from LQ, Ranmaru, (I'm explicitly not counting Shea as a well-defined townread) and Marquis (only scum read) at this point.

He's avoided talking about what happens if marquis flips town – again, keeping his options open.

He hasn't avoided saying he doesn't have a good bet for others than Marquis but I guess that's the point of this. My thoughts are exactly the same as above.

He's selectively and disingenuously used NKA and the reads of dead townies to push things like the marquis wagon.

With regard to Postie CES's NKA is definitely wrong. I agree that Posite was mislynchable but had clearly known reads (didn't matter some where from RC) and that her dying to bolster your towncred to increase the chance of a non-marquis wagon is way too convoluted no matter the case. I can't determine how disingenuous that could be though because it's honestly incontrovertible what exactly Postie's reads were. As for Llmarble's well as far I see the only thing he's borrowing from that is a town-Shea conclusion which as a side note looks blown out of proportion based on that alone, which is all I've ever seen supporting his read on Shea.

His wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. This stands in contrast to other town wagons that we've seen in the game.

I'd say the wagons so far that had gotten within critical mass of lynching, or have been the lynches were limited to Tchill/Eddie/Marquis/ and I'd say LQ kinda. I don't think that says too much at the moment. I sort of shrug at VCA's without scum flips already though. So shrug.

Cogito Ergo Sum is Scum.

It's certainly possible

There are definitely a lot of points in the above case aside from what I've commented on that I don't think are particularly scummy. The early Llmarble vote and the lack of justification for it, for example. Or that it'd be scummy to be contradictory when scum reading both Postie and Eddie.

That said there are a couple things that stuck out over a reread. The original vote on Postie going unexplained for a good while did strike me as somewhat scummy, even though I found the later explanation just fine. It's not a pro-town mindset to leave it to guesswork as to why you are voting someone as a counter to the lead wagon if you want to get something to stick.

The other more major behavior that was pointed out was that the GE scumread has basically disappeared for inexplicable reasons while I'd say the closest thing CES has to an alternative to voting Marquis is voting me based on recent posts. I'm sure I feel this more than someone else might but to me it does feel like a shot at angling for my lynch instead of an honest reread.

However, while I very much disbelieve the push unto me, I still can't help sympathizing with his Marquis push. Because while it does come down to lurking in a somewhat theatrical way, I think that case is still believable and within town CES's range to make.

In any case NSG I think Dunnstral is essentially guaranteed to be scum if CES is but not necessarily the other way around. I still think Dunnstral/Marquis; Dunnstral/Ranmaru are just as possible, and would prefer that first, so there's a pleasant choice the next day. If CES is town there's going to be a really tough choice between Marquis and Dunnstral.

[ActionDan]

team is convinced I'm a goner tonight

I disagree, I am trying to win this for town and lynch scum before I am night killed.

No chance, no way, this scene won't play; I bet you know deep inside, it'll be NSG or even Davsto! More than a prediction, it's my absolute conviction
You'll keep on mislynching, without ever once flinching, though, to cure your affliction: lynch Dunn with my benediction!

[ActionDan]

I'm going through the rebuttals and other such things now.

p-edit. It's a definite possibility, and if it's a choice between you and CES I'll be voting CES no question. I didn't mean to imply that CES was a mislynch from that or that Ran was town.

Currently I think it's most likely Dunn/Ran/? where ? could be a number of options, though CES is one of them

[ActionDan]

Also I'm fairly certain Ran/Dunn/Lycan will be parking their votes on me tomorrow regardless of any outcome today, which is mainly where the mislynch bit came from.

[ActionDan]

Between 3169 and 3170 the only specific problem I have with it is the following paragraph

That just refers to the fact that we need to lynch 2 scum to win the game (in context it provided a nice contrast - 2 vs 1). I was worried about the exact situation that I think we find ourselves in now: Eddie's town, Marquis is scum and my credibility has been undermined by me joining the Eddiewagon.

He later jumps on the Eddie wagon with no real indication as to why the switch.

That's because my vote for Eddie essentially came down to me letting go of the more strategic approach and just voting with the goal of getting what I thought was a good lynch. It was prompted by me explaining my reads to Ranmaru and at that point I just felt that I was being somewhat condescending by trying to game the system in order to secure my preferred lynch (i.e. intentionally not joining the Eddiewagon when it was my natural inclination to do so in order to keep my credibility intact for a Marquislynch).

I don't really believe this. I don't remember you giving any indication ever that you felt Eddie was anything but scum D2 or precisely which of Marquis/Eddie was scummier. I'm pretty sure you just had them as both scum and done. I mentioned this before but what you say here is nothing close to the impression I got which was that Eddie was the easier lynch of the two to get at the time. Even if you were for whatever reason secretly harboring doubts of any sort it would have cost nothing to mention them.

I also took more of a look at the D3 from the 2015 game and I think the treatment of the gamma emerald read basically disappearing is just not something that would have happened in the other game if all things were equal as it seems you painted with a wider brush when it came to scum reads there (if not town reads) and were quite willing to explore them.

Otherwise I am more or satisfied with the rest of the post, but I find these two issues outstanding, and worthy of a vote regardless.

I'll be around until deadline so I think it'd probably be good for NSG to give what thoughts she wants since if that's not the NK I'd eat a hat. Davsto can also read up I suppose.

[ActionDan]

I really wish this day had been more a choice between Dunnstral / Marquis. Going through their recent iso's is depressing.

[ActionDan]

basically, it was that none of ces' teammates seemed to care about this game despite town doing pretty bad in this game, both in general and as compared to how town did early in the games now completed. i also think fenchurch's reads that he gave (in 3235) seem pretty likely to be faked (and i'm trying to be objective here and not just say this given my pre-existing read here). they're really just a reflection of cogito ergo sum's own reads and while that on its own isn't necessarily a reason for them to be faked, i find it hard to believe that those people are the only ones that fen feels she could say something original about.

I was very surprised that it specifically didn't include a Dunnstral read. that ISO is short and clearly not a focus of CES's so a supplemental voice there would have been logical.

In any case. I will probably go to sleep now which will leave ~2 hours between when and I wake up and deadline, so that should be enough time unless some somebody spoils the wagon by unvoting or similar.

Maybe I'll nap and wake up in a couple hours.

[ActionDan]

Also I'm fairly certain Ran/Dunn/Lycan will be parking their votes on me tomorrow regardless of any outcome today, which is mainly where the mislynch bit came from.

No, I won't.

Hello. The remaining scum is Marquis and Action Dan. I am fine with being put at L-2 or L-1 today while I make a case, vca, and final reads list in the case I'm mislynched today. I will not vote outside of those two today. I still think Town will win with or without me. I suggest today should be used with asking me questions about my mindset if I do die today, that way you can consider it in light of my town flip. I think Quick, Gamma, and Shea all get town credit for their reaction to NSG's CES case. I think CES's scum flip is the best town can ask for, since his flip gives more information rather then a Marquis or Action Dan scum flip.

Please vote LQ, Ran.

I don't think it's LQ. Both Marquis and Action Dan never showed up before deadline.

My sides.

[ActionDan]

The information on a scum CES flip was: Don't lynch Marquis before Dunnstral, and something like Davsto/NSG/Lycan move to whatever is just short of confirmed town, and Shea/LQ are more likely to be town. That's just in general.

Still pretty sure remaining scum is simply Dunnstral/Ran.

VOTE: Dunnstral

[ActionDan]

Alright I'll probably give this game a good amount of attention and not become too complacent. Have to adjust to the mod kill giving scum an effective mislynch. Also I fully recognize that a non-me mislynch today would I'm pretty sure make my own mislynch viable the next, so it's very important not to get it wrong for me. I still think my rather hard town reads are correct. Aka, Davsto/LQ/Shea. So today's the day I actually go read gamma. The other things to do are to look closely at VCA and solidify whether Marquis was bussed by CES or was as NSG has argued scum's perennial mislynch since that's a serious possibility and would be the first place I'd look aside from Dunn/Ran.

[ActionDan]

Also Hi Shadoweh. ^_^ I promise I'm town THIS time.

[ActionDan]

UNVOTE:

request granted.

[ActionDan]

I ISOed CES ctrl-f'ing Marquis and the actions of CES towards Marquis are not scum theatre, they those of a scum trying to push low-hanging-fruit

I disagree this is clear at all.

The more I read back the more I like CES's case on Marquis (when it was made), strange as that may sound. It sounds true. Previous to that, I think it's possible he was holding back like giving morsels and platitudes that also just happened to be correct.

I'm still thinking about it, and re-analysising Marquis' early D1 behavior and behavior and interactions with Eddie.

[ActionDan]

Caveat, I think Dunn probably should be lynched, and I think he deserves it. But I can't block out a bus here for a good amount of reasons. Notably, that this IS white flag and a calculated bus is a strategy that has been deployed before. (granted this could be Ran busing CES briefly but that's less strategy and more tactics imo, and yes there's a difference).

[ActionDan]

We've lost power for most of the day and it won't be restored until at least 24 hours apparently

[ActionDan]

Soooo Power won't be restored until late at night Saturday. Fun couple of days for me and my family await.

Also I have plenty of doubts about you gamma, but link w/e post you want.

[ActionDan]

Powers back. I've had some thing to think about this game when it was off and will post those thoughts today

[ActionDan]

This is a phone post because I'very been out most of the day and still am, but my thoughts:

Firstly recent posts on this page and last page look a bit manic to me I dunno but there's no need to rush any lynch here, and also it seems like there's a bit of hysteria. Maybe let's calm down.

Secondly, over the last couple days I've been thinking about CES's posts and how he's approached this game in general, and I've had the unique opportunity to literally step back from the game and more or less clear my head. I'm concerned mostly about how CES approached Dunn and how fenchurch did not include him in her reads (whether that was faked by CES or not is irrelevant). There's a reason I said CES implies Dunn scum and it's because he's left a literal road map to him and that bothers me. The behavior that CES employed towards dunn, complete avoidance of him, and fenchurch not saying a thing about him, has to be deliberate. This skirts WIFOM territory but I've tried to reconcile that with dunn being both town and scum, and it doesn't really make sense with dunn scum. The only way it could is if CES plannew to survive with Dunn to the finish line but considering CES''s play I also don't think that was particularly viable. That's a bit harder to explain but there's a lot of negligence and complacency in CES posting on top of the somewhat hostile environment towards him that would make survival as scum something that I don't think he'd ever have counted on in his position.

I still think Dunn's play is atrocious for a team mafia game but I'm weighing heavily on my understanding of CES''s posting. Which is pointing me towards thinking he's town.

More thoughts later when I get home

[ActionDan]

I knew Dan was going to change his read on Dunn

Ya I mean the other half of this and the other impetus for me is that I do think more and more and more and more that marquis looks like a bus. I'm going the opposite way as basically everyone else there now. Same sort of reasons.

[ActionDan]

I remember that post of yours giving the hammer and I didn't take it because I still thought Dunn had a bether shot at flipping scum. It was very tempting though. After ces''s flip I along with with probablymost people thought that a sign of "oh I guess marquis is towm" but that is just jumping to conclusions. I don't think I was wrong on marquis and I also think CES''s own cases on marquis do hold water. I said earlier "I don't believe ces on me, but do believe him on marquis" and revisiting my posts and his on the matter I am reaffirming this. I know lycan completely dismissed my response to NSG but I hold by my statements there too. Lots of things CES has done have looked town, but it's definitely possible to pinpoint the things that aren't. In short lycan is giving CES too little credit. I was too but putting myself in his shoes changed my perspective.

[ActionDan]

I don't really mind if you don't believe me tbh, but it's important to confront the possibility at the least.

Pedit: please don't go off the deep end. Like you can agree disagree or even vote me if you feel like it, but please no rhetorical questions

[ActionDan]

If my best answer to that question is "I'm town because I am" then there's no value to it. I have nothing to justify. I've pushed scum reads and defended town reads, and read the game and used logic without holding anything back to inform my decisions.

[ActionDan]

VCA hasn't really yielded anything particularly fruitful so far, except reminding me that gamma loves to vote all over the place. I'm still mulling over gamma but my piliminary feelings so far are that his votes strike me as weak (which potentially could be a play style feature more than AI) but that there are a couple of nugents every so often that look town. I'll keep thinking about this.

[ActionDan]

oh? Just isoing myself and searching for mentions of "LQ" undermines your assertion. I've been asked twice explicitly this game for a read on you + reasoning and I've given it.

Your statement feels like you're maligning me via extrapolation; regardless of what you think of my attitude and read on you this game, do you think I haven't in general provided sufficient reasoning for town reads when appropriate? And if so, how does that effect your own read on me?

[ActionDan]

I'm not a huge fan of dans reasoning on Dunn. I think that he's scum. I think ranmaru is more obviously scum though.

I saw his response to my case and I have not found time to respond to it yet, but he just keeps trying to rewrite history w/his opinions.

Gamma was obv town except when he wasn't when ces was on the chopping block. It was for meta but the reason he was scum was also meta.

I've kinda tuned out Ran after his opener today to be frank. I'll go check whether the changes in read on gamma were indeed both based on meta.

[ActionDan]

I think LQ's attitude towards Dunn is completely reasonable, and in a vacuum, I'd lynch Dunn every time. I'm not understanding why sudden scumreads are being directed there for having a hard-on to lynch Dunn.

It's probably important to do, but my goodness that's a lot of words between Ranmaru and Shea that I should read. I haven't even checked that thing about Gamma and meta that I said I would.

[ActionDan]

Right. I probably should have voted earlier, didn't realize deadline was encroaching that fast.

As for that.

VOTE: Shadoweh

I actually kinda like most of your posting today. But...

But.....

But.....................

Marquis was scum. Also to a lesser extent, SK, whose opinions read very fake to me considering he did seem to be following along even when Marquis was imploring people that Ram was scum. If his opinion is that LQ is scum now, then something isn't right. That segues nicely into....

LQ is never scum here. Mostly from D1 and D2 and D3 postings. Pulled off the segue. Looking back I'd put LQ as more town than Shea/Davsto even only because there remains a faint possibility that 1) Shea is having a god-tier or close to it scum game, and 2) that maybe Davsto's play is scum and is on another level having a different kind of god-tier scum game but again I super duper doubt it.

Anyway that leaves Dunn/Ran/Gamma and I'm not voting Dunn now or the next day unless I get a promise that the day's lynches will go Dunn --> Shadoweh. Which I bet I won't

Gamma mostly just smells town atm. Dunno what to say there to be honest. In an entire 4 game days in a decently long game I've struggled to get a solid read on him.

Ran is I guess is someone I could be compelled to vote if I had too. I absolutely would have done it yesterday, but now I don't feel it so much anymore.

Ya... I bet this satisfied 0% of anyone here, but that's really where I'm at and where I've been for about a couple rl days since power came back on.

[ActionDan]

C'est la vie

[ActionDan]

If I do get mislynched vote Shadoweh the next day? will you make that deal?

[ActionDan]

Marquis was never lynchbait. That's kinda a key thing to recognize. His postings were definitely calculated to an extent. Calculated in terms of lurking and trying to sound town the exact argument CES made (Town and scum both do this, but the point is that it's a deliberate play that goes against what you might think of "lynchbait", i.e. someone drawing attention to themselves in very unselfserving ways). When Marquis wasn't doing this D2, he was basically the poster child of scum posting.

Do not underestimate him so.

And also don't underestimate CES's capability for extensive and calculated busing.

[ActionDan]

Yes, yes it is.

If Dunn/Ran had instead voted Shadoweh disaster may have had a chance to be averted. But this is practically about to force me to vote Ran.

[ActionDan]

It's ok it's not as hard as a flip flop from Sleepy Krew, from LQ is wacka alpaca town ---> ??? bad interactions from post 23## ---> hates LQ.

[ActionDan]

anyway. TSQ is not in the cards Dunn and will probably end up dead with Davsto either tonight / tomorrow night after a no lynch should we fail to win today. Vote Shadoweh?

[ActionDan]

What is your read on Ranmaru, Dan? CBA to look it up atm.

It was 4sure scum, but that read dwindled a bit today and looking at the posting within the last page it's lessening asymptotically because those recent posts sure do look town. Like shit.

[ActionDan]

Yes, yes it is.

If Dunn/Ran had instead voted Shadoweh disaster may have had a chance to be averted. But this is practically about to force me to vote Ran.

Your problem is that you are town reading scum. Hopefully when you see my flip, it might make you reconsider.

Two things would make me do this. 1) you flipping town, not because of your arguments which I just can't force myself to synthesize, but because at that point I am wrong somewhere, and well, there's a possibility it's on TSQ. 2) TSQ surviving if there's 5 players left. I guess that goes without saying but I expect him to die even if you get lynched and flip town.

Pre-edit. I think Quick is about the same as NSG levels of town. completely different reasons, but my strength of read is practically the same there.

As for voting Dunn. No, I swear CES's play makes like 0% sense with Dunn scum, I've come from it from 1 billion angles now, and it really doesn't work.

[ActionDan]

We could also no lynch here. just saying

[ActionDan]

That ends well in about 0% of cases.

[ActionDan]

But if we lose like that than so be it honestly. I will at least enjoy the schadenfreude from Lycan perhaps learning some sort of lessen. Unsure what form that will take.

pedit:

I had a town-read on Shea from forever ago back from the time when he voted gamma and gamma voted him, and since then I'd say he's in general been a bastion of sanity this game in a sea of people that were... less so. I suppose that's not the best of reasons for a town read, but there's really been nothing I can think of that's ever made me doubt it; even now I'm trying to recall anything in the flow of the game that I ought to pause for and I'm coming up empty. If I were to recheck anything it'd be his eddie vote and perhaps how he approached scumreads ~D3 and how hard he pushed them. I remember both of those things not giving me worries but if there's anything close to scum intent it would be around there. I'd also check interactions between him and Marquis, to be frank.

[ActionDan]

do you mean all of it, or just the initial post quoted?

[ActionDan]

Unvote; Vote: Shea

VOTE: TSQ

VOTE: TSQ

:V

I'm super tried I'm sorry I can't pull the trigger on this without sleep it would be irresponsible

[ActionDan]

Don't tempt me to bring back fun traditions.

I could carry on the legacy of NeoSerela

[ActionDan]

Yes. He also didn't have CES in his pool until that very point, which makes more sense as scum taking advantage of a bus rather then town just jumping on at the last minute.

Actually I don't remember if CES was mentioned one way or the other before NSG's case but that does remind me that I do think I did pause briefly when Shea critiqued CES's response to NSG's case wherein he said something along the lines of "CES is answering the same thing twice" or somettinhg and it wasn't really true. lemme go back

[ActionDan]

My vote on CES, for those who keep saying its "SUS" is because we're at deadline and I thought his reaction to the NSG was horrific. It didn't respond to any of her points. It's main contention was that NSG was simply misunderstanding CES, but I don't think that's fair. It went point by point to make it seem like it was big and full of line by line retorts but it wasn't. It was mainly just repeating the same thing over and over and again and accusing NSG of being disingenuous when I really didn't think she was.

Also, anyone who is saying I had a firm town read on him before is DELIBERATELY mistating what I have said before.

I've had him as null town, because of meta, but that meta does not include responses like this. That's not ces town play, and we're at deadline.

If there were a viable wagon on Dunn I would join it, but its not there.

Right this first paragraph isn't correct. CES responded to the vast majority of her points. And quite fairly and well too to most of them. Only on a few did he dissemble.

[ActionDan]

thats not what I said, I said that CES' answers to the case were basically that NSGs case is misrepping him or taking things out of context and he tried to use this to invalidate multiple points in the case when I didn't think she was doing either of those things.

Yeah, you're right, I just remembered disagreeing at the time but not thinking much of it

[ActionDan]

I mean I still think your assessment was wrong. but shurg.

[ActionDan]

I thought he was overly dismissive of the case. CES town doesn't respond to a case that spot on by basically saying that NSG was misunderstanding everything and that she was taking him out of context. Especially when she wasn't.

It wasn't spot on though. And the quotes you pulled I completely agree with CES there. I think it'd be natural to be dismissive especially if NSG was objectively incorrect in many places, which she was.

pedit: Ranmaru. I'm about to have a breakdown.

p-p-edit: Ok definitely for the best LQ took the hammer away, like spock I feel emotionally compromised.

[ActionDan]

I'm not voting Dunn.

I'm not going to vote Ran before a no-lynch

I'm not sure if it's really particularly scummy that TSQ is definitely wrong about CES's response or if my BoP I'm applying to him is absurbly high there. He is wrong though. The question is wether being wrong is in tandem with voting CES to make that a more believable bus, but I'm not sure why he would have to take that angle at all.

What I am doing is curling up in a metaphorical fetal position for the moment.

[ActionDan]

Yeah, Davsto is super Town based on play as well.

Agree with this.

Pretty sure he dies horribly in the night tonight. TSQ had a chance of that, but uh, things happened.

[ActionDan]

I got the feeling CES was a foregone conclusion at some point D3. Unsure if I felt that way before or after Shea's vote.

[ActionDan]

It was either CES or Dunnstral and the balance tipped squarely into CES at one point, is my recollection

[ActionDan]

I think Shea has more of a chance than Dunn of being scum. Shadoweh is only confirming that for me via her vote. However I don't feel compelled to vote

Would it really be that bad if we just no lynch?

[ActionDan]

Gamma will most likely be night killed, and we'll be in this same scenario but with one less vote, and Dunn possibly being lynched at that time.

The threshold goes down by 1 anyway and I'd be pretty happy with Gamma dying and flipping town. I know you're certain he's town but I'm not. Also Gamma's vote is fairly unpredictable so :/. It's on TSQ now but it could be on LQ/me/Dunn at any point.

[ActionDan]

Yeah my hope is we all hold hands and vote shadoweh tomorrow. Is it realistic? well, if this End of Day has proven anything, quite possibly!

If TSQ is scum Ranmaru yeah, I again didn't pull the trigger, but I can't feel bad about it.

Good night and best wishes to all, even Lycan.