Mini Normal 2119 [game over]

[Iconeum]

[Micc]

I did not start considering any Menalque scum teams until D5. But when I did there was a very clear picture.

I’m gunna paint if for you starting with the spoiler wall I posted earlier. All I ask is that you read it and seriously consider the things I’m saying.

Also it might take me another 24-36 hours to finish because vintage cube is up on mtgo and that’s really distracting.

[Iconeum]

I did not start considering any Menalque scum teams until D5. But when I did there was a very clear picture.

I’m gunna paint if for you starting with the spoiler wall I posted earlier. All I ask is that you read it and seriously consider the things I’m saying.

Also it might take me another 24-36 hours to finish because vintage cube is up on mtgo and that’s really distracting.

Take whatever time you need, I'm currently rereading major parts of the game too. Got distracted by a pagetop tho.

[Menalque]

my fake vote is on micc, I think

I've run through it a bunch of times in my head, and I can't see how icon could have info on Aaron specifically N1, plus N2 info on Datisi AND a role that allowed him to kill through a rolestop on N2 at the same time. scum power has to be high here to compensate for the number of TPRs but I think that multitasking JOAT strongman-follower/tracker is too much even for this setup

like if that is in fact the role that icon has (or if the informed info somehow plays in here but just outright informing scum of who has what role for town seems still OP unless it's info given on D2 or D3 or something and the role is slightly weaker) then I just don't think that's something that's reasonable to expect town to guess and while I'm not exactly okay losing to it, it is some bullshit that you just can't get around

[Menalque]

I wanna reread icon's claim before I'm like finally set on that to make sure he didn't flush out enough info that he could then BS through it, but provided it checks out there too, what exactly do you want icon

[Menalque]

like if it's helpful to you for me to go through emps'/micc's ISO and try to call out a bunch of scummy shit then I can do that and if it's helpful for me to go through and refute whatever his case on me ends up being I can do that too

but I kinda feel like that's ultimately gonna be unproductive and that each of our ISOs in the last 160 pages should spew me pretty clearly as town and I'm assuming him pretty clearly as scum

[Iconeum]

i think it's not very productive for you to scumcase micc

but a vote/wagon analyse would be wonderful?

[Iconeum]

that's to the both of you

[Iconeum]

specifically the positions of menal and micc against both scum lynches

i'm trying myself but it's not easy

[Menalque]

I think the more cogent question is: why are we both here, and why am I here over math/why are you here over math? like in the world of scum!micc, he has exactly 3 lylo possibilities:

(1) micc/math/mena
(2) micc/math/icon
(3) micc/mena/icon

I think (1) is obvious why it wasn't chosen -- I'd made it pretty clear that I was never voting math bc of ~*reasons*~ from D1. math was also TRing me pretty strongly throughout, so I think the odds of math voting me were slim too. so while there's like a chance that he swings math into voting me, I think this is clearly the worst lylo for micc

the more interesting question is why (3) not (2). honestly, I'd kind of expected (2) in the case of micc!scum because that seemed like the optimal setup for him to me -- bring math along who's had a tunnel on you, then with you getting no result (either from tracking me when I wold have died or knowing that you'd get no result on him) hope that he doesn't reconsider and push you hard as having a fake role. only by end of day yesterday, math was coming around to micc > icon as scum, and wasn't as locked on ico!scum as I think it looked like when he first entered the game. I also think math is a strong player prone to reconsideration, and that's a major thread, especially if he were to realise that math might smell a fish from finding himself in lylo with a slot he'd been semi-tunnelling for two days

which I think explains why we're in (3) -- I think it's the best lylo possible from micc's pov out of a bad set of 3. I was pretty confident on icon!town earlier, but my trajectory was basically the opposite of math's. I got less confident as time went on and there were no results/math continued to insist that icon be at least reconsidered. I was also less likely to feel obviously like it was a setup than math was, precisely because I had a different trajectory to him -- in fact, and I think this plays out, I was more likely to be paranoid about micc being brought along as a mislynch than about icon being brought along as the same, and I was leaning icon more than micc at start of day. likewise, icon and I have *history* together, and you've had a tendency throughout the game to get paranoid about me at various points. add that to math being dead when it seems like I should be dead, and that's another option for micc to play off in the hopes of getting you to vote me

[Menalque]

i think it's not very productive for you to scumcase micc

but a vote/wagon analyse would be wonderful?

yeah I can do this but it's not something I'm good at as I rarely use it as a tool

I mean I'm much more a tone/gamestate player but I'll try

[Menalque]

oh, and as another point, from the pov of me!scum, there are also 3 possible lylos:

me/math/icon
me/math/micc
me/icon/micc

in the first case, I'm mental because deliberately flipping micc!town is basically a losing move for scum!me regardless of what you/math think on each other, so obviously that's never happening when I'm scum. the other two are the more interesting for you to consider, because I think a (me/math/micc) lylo would be much more optimal for scum!me than this one. again, math was consistently TRing me throughout the game, you flipping town can easily be played off as micc not wanting to fight a 1v1 against you/not wanting to have a result from your PR, and I think that game is fairly locked up for scum me by just being conservative and telling math whatever he wants to hear.

whereas here I have to deal with you which is a pain in the ass from scum!me's pov given your doubts on me throughout the game, despite your position on micc being the most likely scum, because you know me better than anyone else in the game bar datisi and have actually played with scum!me twice. and if I this was a lylo I'd chosen, why do I not just push micc from start of day?

[the worst]

vote count 6.01

not voting: Menalque, Micc, Iconeum

with 3 alive it takes 2 to lynch

This phase ends in (expired on 2020-03-31 12:30:00).


mod notes: quack

[Iconeum]

Scum!micc kills math, which means micc thinks it's possible i will vote menal over him. Unlikely?
Scum!menal kills math, which means menal thinks it's possible i will vote micc over him. More likely.

I think both of you had an easier time killing the othe dude and leaving math alive, because i'm fairly confident he'd vote me.

[Iconeum]

This reads Ico couldn’t put menal and micc together so bussed his buddy.

Pretty much confirms Menal town and bji flips red.

Remember to fake vote tomorrow people.

I really think menal is town here and it’s in Ico/Micc.

Ico if alive should have results.

These are maths last (barring the posts only referring me) reads.

Scum!micc has most to gain by killing math I think? He can't kill me for obv reasons, and killing menal puts it to a somewhat coinflip in the hands of math I think.

[Iconeum]

i really dont see town!ico playing like this tbh

intent to hammer in like 10 hrs or so

i dont trust myself to like wake up tmrw then just have my first thought be "i should hammer ico now" so hopefully i remember sometime in the evening lol

not bad associates at all uh huh sure jan

[Iconeum]

i'm so paranoid lol

don't really see how micc chooses this as his winning lylo, and def see why scum!micc would

[Iconeum]

second micc is menal

[Menalque]

Yo sorry i have a cold so you’re gonna have to wait for a bit on the VCA stuff

[Menalque]

Icon I see where your paranoia is coming from but consider that for me basically any lylo with micc alive is good for me whereas for micc none of the lylos are “good” per se so it’s more choosing one that’s not bad

[Menalque]

Or is the least bad*

[Micc]

The tl:dr of want I wanted to show by going through menalque’s iso is that you mislynching me in lylo is something that’s been set up this whole game. Sorry I’ve been kinda distracted and also unmotivated about spelling it out. Hoping to hit it hard tonight.

But Menalque snuck onto the day 1 wagon and the spent then middle part of the game simultaneously pushing for lynches off the wagon and avoiding pushing me if at all possible. Countless times Menalque posted that if this doesn’t work it’s micc tomorrow without ever actually coming back to me. He played a big part of picking bob over bji on the key D4 lynch that brought us to lylo. And he’s the clear answer to who would actively chose to keep you alive twice when you could have been nightkilled.

[Micc]

Spoiler:

vote count 1.21

Chemist1422 (7)

:

Iconeum

,

GuiltyLion

,

bji

,

bob3141

,

Menalque

,

Datisi

,

Looker

Looker (4)

:

Chemist1422

,

wilky

,

emps

,

AaronFrost

not voting:

Pine

,

Tchill13

with 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

This phase ends in (expired on 2020-02-19 08:00:00)


mod notes: quack

Willing to vote in any of those 4 names

Pedit: okay willing to lynch in any of those 4 names -AFF

GL/icon/bji all town for getting the chem wagon going and sticking with it

Tchill is still town off plank’s play I think

AFF should self-resolve so gets treated as locktown for now

Looker is prob town for being the main CW to chem!scum

Bob gets some towncred for being earl on the scum!wagon but I still don’t like him on play

I don’t like datisi’s position on the scum!wagon but she’s still town on balance for play

So scum all in wilky, emps, pine

Think it’s somewhat unlikely but not impossible that all the scum pushed looker so prob 1 scum in (wilky, emps) +pine

If there was a bus then prob (bob, dats)

vote count 1.21

Chemist1422 (7)

:

Iconeum

,

GuiltyLion

,

bji

,

bob3141

,

Menalque

,

Datisi

,

Looker

Looker (4)

:

Chemist1422

,

wilky

,

emps

,

AaronFrost

not voting:

Pine

,

Tchill13

with 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch

This phase ends in (expired on 2020-02-19 08:00:00)


mod notes: quack

Willing to vote in any of those 4 names

Pedit: okay willing to lynch in any of those 4 names -AFF

@icon, this is why, if you have a look

If the reason chem wagon stalled so hard was that scum weren’t willing to get on, which I think is more plausible than scum getting on super early (esp with GL now flipping town meaning it would have to be you or bji in that universe) then it means scum were resisting the wagon all the way through

Of those other names, one is self resolving, so he’s out of contention for today

I still think plank!slot is just town after fighting with him

Which leaves 2/3 scum in (pine, micc, slaxx)

I’d be kind of surprised if all the scum got on looker one after another, which I think makes it more likely that we have pine!scum + 1 scum in (micc, slaxx)

Here is the start of menaque's push for finding scum off the wagon. A group that doesn't include bji or himself. This is the thinking that lead to mislynches on both Pine and slaxx, and has always been the biggest case against me. Remember that everyone familiar with emps meta was strongly town reading emps prior to the day 1 lynch. The argument to look off the D1 wagon makes sense and is something that me and other people have given menalque town credit for. But it's important to remember how menalque removed himself from this very pool, a deadline jump onto chemist that he never really justified. Putting this together his jump to chemist and the ensuing direction make sense as a scum motivated game plan to get him and bji to the endgame.

Spoiler:

Agreed menal

but why is Pine a better lynch then emps/micc today

mecc lynch provides much more information

Bc it does a better job of reducing universes imo

If pine!scum, I think it’s very likely that I’m correct and the world we’re in is where all the resistance to chem!wagon was from scum staying off

But pine!town means that if that’s true then all 3 scum were on the counterwagon which seems, idk, excessively bold as a D1 strat when you know that looker flipping green means chem prob gets lynched D3 at the latest and that your associations will look terrible

So pine!town means seriously looking at the wagon again to see if anyone bussed — particularly in dats/bob but also at you/bji, I think looker is prob town regardless

Whereas emps!scum means we’re still prob lynching pine the next day

But emps!town doesn’t reduce the universes, as I think emps!town means it could still be (pine, slaxx) and I think makes it easier for scum to stay UTR as we keep working off an incorrect model of what happened D1

@Menal, you are arguing to me about worlds and gamestates.

Pine hasn't played this game yet. Lynching him changes neither gamestate NOR worlds.

You know what does?

Lynching emps/Pine

And if that flips scum, ya'll lynch menal next.

But it does do that icon: if Pine!town then we have to decide if there actually were all 3 scum simultaneously pushing on looker against a scum wagon

Because that is terrible optics

It is possible because there was a lot of difficulty with chem!wagon, but it seems unlikely because it’s so short termist

So lynching pine today and resolving that is massively beneficial for tomorrow, as it forces greater reconsideration of the wagon and I think implies bussing in bob/dats most likely

The next part of D2 is menalque pretty aggressively pushing for pine to be lynched over me. Me alive is a good thing for scum as I'm a likely mislynch. Central to the reasoning for lynching pine is that a town flip would bring him back to looking on the D1 wagon. Fast forward through a pine lynch and into days 3 and 4 and we will not see menalque look back to the D1 wagon as was implied here.

Spoiler:

Mena
Say we lynch pine today and he flips town
Who are you going after tomorrow

Not sure

Probably still micc, but I’d wanna start pressing you/bob more, and to re-examine bji and icon

Obviously mass claim brought a lot of new information into play D3, but this is another line of thinking we will not see menalque come back to despite pine flipping town.

Spoiler:

Ughhhhh

intent to hammer when I wake up tomorrow

Still think pine is more optimal

I wish

Even with you we’d only have 3

Would need to get looker or bob on board and convince 2 of aaron/dats/bji to flip

VOTE: pine

Another sequence that shows menalque strongly favoring pine over me. Even choosing to only give intent despite that I had already claimed and given my last will. Menalque had a vested interest in keeping me alive for a future mislynch, and as the game moves forward that theme will continue.

[Iconeum]

What was bji position on menal pushing against micc lynch

[Iconeum]

Micc everything you just said would be a reason for you to vote Ico or Aaron since from your perspective one of them must be lying. So why are you voting Pine?

Why are you asking Ico to confirm that Aaron wasn't blocked? Ico has already confirmed that at least once.

How do we know Aaron wasn’t blocked or interfered with? It would be awful play to claim a blocking ability as either alignment hereZero benefit to town and just giving info to scum

I'm telling you. Whatever happened that resulted in a 'no result' didn't occur on Aaron's end.

Also why do you conclude that Aaron must be scum and not Ico?

And, given the above, I can see no reason to lynch Pine over Micc. So:

VOTE: Micc

L-1

I have to get up in 6 hours, so good night all.

UNVOTE: Micc

VOTE: Pine

L-1 again, Pine.

@ducky what happens if a roleblocker and a rolestopper target each other?

I personally think the answer is obvious, but it's the mod's job to answer not mine.

What is the purpose of this question?

There’s not much help coming from that bit of mumbo jumbo besides making slaxx likely to be Town. Have to assume Roleblocker and not strongman to account for Aaron’s no result N1. Roleblock and nightkill is an action for both scum. Ruling out multitasking as too much scum power it follows that anyone not visiting N2 is town.

I think it’s time for icon to full claim. 1. Because he’s presumably held in check by the Rb until he dies and 2. If he’s got information that someone didn’t act on N2, that person is very likely town.

Micc explain again why "have to assume roleblocker and not strongman to account for Aaron's no result N1"? I don't follow.

Well, it kinda looks like icon

is

lying right now. But icon rolled back his claim that Aaron wasn’t messed with N1, which I took to mean aaron could still have been RB’d at the time I made posts your quoting.

Sorry, can you point out where Ico rolled back the claim? Because I must have missed that ... there was ALOT to read after all ...

Ftr I think it’s mechanically impossible for icon to be scum, and also that we can trust Datisi’s point that icon is way beyond his scum range.

Well I might be dense, but again, why can't Ico be a scum tracker and scum have a strongman?

Why can't that also explain everything?

So who is keeping me around?

Same question I had for Looker. Why do you think you would have been lynched over a cop and a protective role? I feel like you are begging the question here.

My train of thought here was to ask who is protecting me from a lynch, whereas I think you're interpreting it to be asking why I'm not night killed. I'm self aware enough to know that I'm very far down the nightkill priority list in this game.

Yeah I meant to ask why you would have been NK'd, not lynched, you interpreted my question correctly. Thanks for clarifying what you meant.

Micc, you are saying you voted bob because you thought he is probably better at scum than you are and thus would bus better than you would?

Can you give some reasons why you concluded that bob would be better than you are as scum?

OK I've done as much re-reading as I have time for.

Ico is town, I've already stated why I think this is true.

emps/Micc are town. emps play was null and Micc had plenty of opportunity to push Ico heavily but his resistance to that felt very genuine to me on re-read. Since I town read Ico and believe Ico's claim I think scum Micc would be more likely to try to get more effective doubt casting of Ico out of Ico's claim snafus.

Menalque is scum. Must have gotten lucky on missing being roleblocked and investigated. Also post 1121 is really bad on re-read. He is trying to maneuver the wagon away from Chem. Claims to want to lynch bob or Looker, but play after this completely ignores bob until I started a wagon on bob and then Menalque was happy to pile on. And 1211 makes no sense, seems like with Menalque's attitude he should just stay off of the chem wagon. Also why did he change in just a few posts from "chemist is likely town" to scum reading chemist in 1563? He consistently town read me in the early game but then slowly started scum reading me without providing reasons and now in 5p LYLO I am his top scum read.

Math is scum. I don't like how he pushed for Ico lynch yesterday and without any change in Ico status (and Ico being alive should make Math

more

suspicious, not less) is now town reading Ico. In fact Math appears to be willing to town read anyone who seems willing to vote me. Math keeps referencing quotes from other players that make me look worse (for example post 3673). Also Math pretending to need time to re-read the game to decide which of bob or I to hammer seemed fake because Math was really only scum reading me all day. Math didn't even interact with bob at all but made a point to keep up interaction with me. That smells of setting up a mislynch. And also Math is trying to use our previous game history as a reason to scum read me here when my play in our previous games when I was scum was

nothing

like my play in this game, so at worst my history should be NAI for Math, not evidence for scum!bji.

I think the UP/Menalque drama can be explained by the argument starting or intensifying in scum private thread. UP replaced out rather than continue to play with a partner that he couldn't get along with.

I think Menalque and Math have both worked to set me up as the winning mislynch today.

In terms of which I'd lynch first, I think Menalque is the better choice. His maneuvering me to the top of his scum reads was not as obvious to me as it slowly built during the game but on re-read it's clearer. The setting up of my mislynch is almost blatant.

Fake vote: Menalque

a) I might be dead which would make it a large and complete waste of time

do you think you had high liklihood of being nightkilled N4 over strong PR claim icon or concensus town read menalque?

Not a high likelihood, but not a zero chance either.

@Ico: do you want me to vote Menalque according to Math's plan?
@Micc: do you want me to vote Menalque according to Math's plan?

If I get a yes on both, I will vote Menalque.

Working through bji ISO to zee what is s v s interaction