Newbie 1673: University of Mafiascum Class 108 - D4- OVER!

[Workdawg]

/confirm

[Workdawg]

Holy cow.

I get back from vacation to see that this game is just starting so I confirm... and now this. I've been up for a long time travelling, so I'm having a tough time wrapping my head around all of this, but since things are going down I want to chime in. I'll reread sometime tomorrow when I'm less tired but here are my general impressions so far.

First and foremost:

EE is at L-1, PLEASE DO NOT HAMMER HIM THIS EARLY IN THE DAY

We'll lose a ton of time and content that we can use to find scum. Even if he were to flip scum, we'll likely have no idea who his partner would be. If he is scum, he can flail around more and maybe he'll reveal something we can use to find his partner.

EE vs Kahlan.... woah. It seemed to me like a bit of a misunderstanding with the confusion about acronyms and whatnot, but EE seems to almost be trying to make things sound scummy when I'm not sure they are. That's scummy by itself, so I'm generally getting a scum read on him for that.

FOS: EE, but since he is already L-1, I am not willing to hammer him and lose all the time we have left today.

Drixx vs EE... Pretty unsure about this one. I can't really get into the details right now, but Drixx's behavior so early in this game is rubbing me the wrong way as well. I don't know exactly what to think about this. One thing that bothers me about Drixx is that some of his tells seem to be above my head a little bit, even as an SE player. "Reaction tests" and whatnot that make him seem very confident in their results, and I just don't really see it. I'm not saying he's wrong about whether things are tells or not, he seems to have MUCH more experience than me, I just can't wrap my head around his logic sometimes.

Overall, I really like where we are going so far because there is a lot of content to analyze right now. However, I really think we need to make sure that we hear from some of the lurkers as well before we lynch someone. In a game like this, it's VERY easy for scum to hide out and let town tear each other apart. Especially in a game as active as this one has been. Just look at the post count so far:

EE: 23
Kahlan: 18
Drixx: 11
Ness: 10
usted: 6
newbieinmafia: 4
TheDominator: 2
Workdawg: 1

That INCLUDES confirming posts. Less than half the players in the thread barely have posted more than a confirm/RVS post. One player hasn't even confirmed yet (I don't think).

Looking at the group of lurkers, I do find it suspicious that TheDominator put the 3rd vote on EE while he was supposed to be on V/LA. Makes me wonder if he isn't following a scum partner in either Kahlen or Drixx to help get the bandwagon going, but also appear innocent by way of absence.

VOTE: TheDom

Even if he is V/LA, votes are one of town's greatest tools and I won't let mine go to waste voting for no one.

pedit: This post is current as of somewhere around post 75 now. I keep writing things, hitting preview and seeing that more people are posting. I really have to go to bed now though, so I'll catch up tomorrow.

[Workdawg]

Alright, this is going to be a few posts, because I have a lot of thoughts.

First off, some smaller, one-off thoughts...

Ok. What do you think of kahlan and that whole interaction?

....
Her and Drixx: they don't seem like a scum team because she probably would have ask her questions in mafia PT.

This is actually a very dangerous assumption, if she (Kahlan) is scum she SHOULD be asking all her questions in this thread to make sure that she looks like a newb so that any potential slips would be viewed as potential newb tells and not scum tells.

[Workdawg]

First off, the hot topic... EE:
It seems that I was wrong that EE was ever at L-1. I missed Kahlan's unvote and it seems like just about everyone did though. I apologize for that and I would have voted for him, as I stated, if I had known my count was wrong. But, lets take a look at the rest of my thoughts for now...

I like workdawgs post.

Ness confuses me. I think theres being on different pages, and then unthinkable there's being in different books, and then I think there's where ness and I are. I have no idea why on earth she's getting at. Sooo... Ok.

@newbie (is there a better way to shorten your name?) Ok I see why you're saying. Right now I really disagree, but I might be misinterpreting things. I do that a lot when I get my hands dirty at the beginning of the game, so I'll go back and look at it again with fresh eyes tomorrow that aren't as emotionally invested in the thread.

1.I'm a dude
2.I am on the same page as you.
3.You're acting like nothing is a big deal, yet you're trying to get answers out of people?

Yeah, i get that asking questions is good. But heres the thing about you.

A)You make things look scummy when they aren't
B)The questions you ask lead to nowhere and don't exactly lead to the progression of finding out roles.

So, are you scum? Probably, but lynching you isn't going to give us any information as to who the other mafia is. That, or you're just a clueless townie with nothing to do.

I agree with A, however I very much disagree with B.

Since B is simple, I'll address that first. EE's questions have gotten us to this point, 6 pages of content to digest. Whether you think they were pointless or not doesn't really matter. I would almost go so far as to say that there are no stupid questions as long as they relate directly to the game. I really don't see how EE asking questions makes him scum. I'd also like to again point out that we have many players (myself included) with pretty much no content. Scum could easily be hiding among us that way.

A is a pretty scummy thing to do, trying to find things that are scummy rather than looking for things that ARE scummy. They are very different things. The reason that I'm not 100% on EE being scum is that "making things look scummy" is something that I've seen town do as well when they start to get tunnel vision (myself included, maybe too much). I don't really see any obvious scum tells on EE.

Misrepping Drixx would be another scumtell indeed, but I didn't notice that in my read through. I actually just went back to read Drixx's ISO (including going back to check context) to make sure I didn't miss it and didn't see it. I read Drixx because he said he quoted it happening. Unless it's in post 49, but I'm actually not even sure what EE was saying in that quote so I'm not really sure what to think about that. Post 59 is another possible "misrep" by EE, but I don't see how that's a big deal at all. Drixx's next post is 121 and he's already claiming EE is misrepping him, so I really don't see where this quote is. I just don't see where this misrepping occurred if Drixx claims he's already quoted it.

Having reread the whole thread, my overall feelings about EE is that he's leaning scum regardless of this "misrep situation".

For that: VOTE: EE

[Workdawg]

This should have been in my previous post but:

@Drixx

could you please clarify the misrep situation for me, because I'm really missing it for some reason.

Moving on...
Small tidbits on Drixx:

I find drixx's seeming lack of attempt to discuss the actually alignment indicative disturbing.

Now you have my vote for serious.

I very clearly said that either alignment might make a post ensuring it was okay to start the game; however, scum would do so to make a positive impression in people's minds.

Since there is no objective way to know just from the original post, I put something in my first post to get reactions.

Thank you for firming up your scummy reaction. You are entirely way too focused on what I'm thinking than you are on trying to interact with people and start to sort them. Your posts reveal a mindset that does not feel town motivated in any way whatsoever.

...

However Kahlan I would like to know the same thing EE has asked several times. Why question my vote, but cast the same vote as drixx. Drixx said his vote was for obvious reasons, but I don't see the reason. (Common to vote the person with /first post?)

Drixx, I know your vote was RVS, but why EE?

The obvious reason I referred to was that he posted but didn't put up an RVS vote.

There was also a bit of a reaction test there. He also appeared to be trying to get some town cred by appearing to be helpful/cautious and I wanted to see if anyone would pick up on that.

I understand the first reason, and I would have plopped an RVS down if I thought the game had started already, but every other game on this site has started with a mod post, so I wanted to make sure. I don't see how that was alignment indicative at all, but I guess?

However Kahlan I would like to know the same thing EE has asked several times. Why question my vote, but cast the same vote as drixx. Drixx said his vote was for obvious reasons, but I don't see the reason. (Common to vote the person with /first post?)

Drixx, I know your vote was RVS, but why EE?

Well the honest truth is I was in the process of typing out EEs name to vote when Drixx voted before me. I'm very slow at typing ( in the process of practicing ) so I just reworded my vote because I thought that was how I was suppose to do in order to show I'm part of the town and who I wanted to vote for was just the same as Drixx. I was asking questions because I though that is what we were suppose to do to wager on if we are voting right or if votes need to be changed. I honestly didn't realize you have already put a reason to your vote. That is why I asked the question. And still voted for who I was using as my RVS vote.

The bold part pings my scumdar hard.

Also you were going to vote for me before drixx did? Why?

What you posted wasn't alignment indicative. How you (and others) responded to me saying that I was voting you for obvious reasons was what I wanted to see.

Someone of any alignment might make the post you made. That said; Scum might make such a post to try and have people read them positively. The question is discerning which is which.

In both quotes, the bolded parts, Drixx is talking about actions that are not really indicating one alignment or another. However in both quotes, he points out the specifically scummy motivation for the actions in question. This strikes me as a bit odd that he doesn't give the town aligned motivation but he specifically includes the scum one. Why choose to only include one, and why is it the scum motivation that is included? Adding the scum bits doesn't seem to help his case at all. It seems like he's trying to imply that the person who's actions are in question (in this case it's EE) is scum by attempting to guess the motivation which he is indicating is that of scum. I mean, Drixx obviously thinks that EE is scum, but it just rubs me the wrong way a bit because this seems like a sneaky way to trick us all into believing EE is scum due to actions that are not strictly scummy. If EE is scum, then let his actions show it, don't try and make his actions seem scummy when they are not. EE was doing it directly and that's why I have a scumread on him right now.

...

@Workdawg - *wave* ... if scum quickhammer on day one, then they make a 1-for-1 trade which is terrible for them, so it's not a big deal to put someone at L-1 and see if they will post enough to solidify a read. For example ... I was pretty sure EE was scum, but that could have been confirmation bias. I wanted to see how he would respond to specific and intense questioning while he was one vote away from the gallows. I managed to get what I wanted given that there was a super obvious white knighting on him along with a counterwagon push on me. That's pretty solid feedback for me that I am right.

Hello again Drixx!

If scum quickhammer on day one, then it seems very likely that it would be a 1-1 trade, which would be great for us. But this is a newbie game and it's not out of the realm of possibility that a townie accidentally hammers someone. I agree that L-1 isn't bad, but I just think we need to be very careful when we get there and make sure that everyone is on the same page.

[Workdawg]

pedit: Ah! Here we go again with the incoming posts. This is all in reply to EE's post in 142.

What part made you think that I was doubtful? I'm always unsure of my reads until someone flips. I'm a very cautious player.

As for seeming friendly with Drixx, I hardly think implying that he lied is being friendly. I'm just trying to figure out what everyone is talking about regarding that. If he lied about you misrepping him, then that makes him scummy. If you did misrep him, that makes you scummy, so it's pretty important.

Honestly, I don't have a "solid list" of reasons for a scum read on you. However, as I previously mentioned it seemed like you were looking for reasons to find Kahlan scummy, rather than looking for really scummy actions. If you were misrepping Drixx like he and Ness (and maybe others) seemed to think you were, then that's even more scummy. Obviously I don't think there is enough reason to hammer you at this point since I would have done it last night if I thought that, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to put my vote on the person I feel is the most scummy.

As I previously mentioned, I don't believe in "not voting". My vote will stay on whoever I find is the most scummy at any given time. Before rereading this whole thread, that was TheDom, now I think it's you.

[Workdawg]

@Drixx: Thanks for that. I guess it's post 46 that was throwing me off. I'm not really sure what EE was getting at saying that, but I do see it now.

@newbie: That's an interesting point that I managed to overlook. I guess I was focusing more on EE since that's where most of the heat was yesterday. I'm still a bit worn out, so I'm going to head to bed soon, but I will reread the Ness tomorrow.

[Workdawg]

Alright, I'm back with my ISO on Ness / the Drixx wagon.

I'm more or less rehashing what newbie says in post 144 but I said I'd provide my thoughts, so here we are.

Posts 68 and 70: Ness calls Drixx's comment "scummy as hell".
Post 72: Ness gives Drixx a Null town read. This isn't necessarily strange. His justification is that the rest of Drixx's posts have been fine, just that one comment was scummy. One scummy thing does not a scum make, so I'm okay with the read despite the comments. He also says the EE might be scum with the same justification as everyone else. Votes EE because of that. Again, not a big deal IMO.
... a bunch of posts where they (Ness and EE) go back and forth...
Post 102: They make up and Ness unvotes. He's "moving on" from EE.
... they go back and forth a little bit more anyway...
Post 122: Votes for Drixx for seemingly no reason. It was right after Drixx got on EE's case again about the same stuff. Drixx also says the Ness' RQS is a waste of time since we are out of the RVS/RQS stage already. That fact makes it seem maybe a tiny bit like OMGUS since it was literally 2 minutes after Drixx's post, but from what I can tell, Ness hasn't commented about the scumminess of anyone but those two.

So that's it. The curious thing to me is that there's really nothing that happens between when Ness unvotes and when he then votes for Drixx. EXCEPT, as newbie points out, a wagon on Drixx appears out of no where. Usted puts the first vote down after seemingly presenting a case against Drixx. Not 20 minutes later EE jumps on the wagon as well. Then not 20 minutes later AGAIN Ness is on board. That is quite remarkable. Almost all of the posts in that 40 minutes were people answering the RQS, there's very little, if any content to actually analyze or that could contain tells (at least IMO). It really does reek of Ness wagon hopping.

Another thing that I noticed is that Ness was the 3rd person on EE's wagon as well. Further enforcing the theory of his wagon hopping. Was Ness bussing/distancing himself from EE when the heat was on, and then now they wagon together on Drixx, the next target? It's interesting to me that they just made up so easily despite the fact that EE made some genuinely scummy moves.

Minor FOS on Ness

. I still like EE right now though so my vote stays.

[Workdawg]

Alright, this is going to be a few posts, because I have a lot of thoughts.

First off, some smaller, one-off thoughts...

Ok. What do you think of kahlan and that whole interaction?

....
Her and Drixx: they don't seem like a scum team because she probably would have ask her questions in mafia PT.

This is actually a very dangerous assumption, if she (Kahlan) is scum she SHOULD be asking all her questions in this thread to make sure that she looks like a newb so that any potential slips would be viewed as potential newb tells and not scum tells

.

I feel Newbieinmafia had very valid point especially for a newbie game. I think workdawg gives a scummy response. First off this is a newbie game is it not? isn't the point to ask questions to get familiar with the game? and what newbie or I should say a newbie with little to no experience in this game would even think of posting questions in the thread like how workdawg has stated would be what he think he is in the mind set of a scum. He is basically set this 'Dangerous Assumption' up to hurt the town because how are we ever going to be safe to ask questions if we are accused of being scum when we ask questions. This statement just rubs me the wrong way. It is why for now I VOTE: workdawg

@Kahlan - even though I said scum probably wouldn't want to stand out much, it's pretty weak reasoning, which is why I attribute it to gut feeling.
also, I think you are misunderstanding workdawg's post. and his sig is not alignment indicative~ he will have that sig whether he drew town or scum.

Okay it should be clear to everyone by now that I don't have as much as experience in this game. This is my actual first game and it's a little hard for me to keep up with everyone. I still stand by my vote for now. @newbie and @ee wither or not if he was drawn as scum his sig has to have some significance. In my mind it probably has some personal significance to him and who he is as a person because if it didn't then why keep the signature? Granted that is not a big reason to call him out as scum that is why I had my second reason. Now what I'm gathering is most of you agree with workdawg statement but I still don't. In my mind he is saying that to create doubt in the town. Now everyone will zero in on the newbies asking question sincere or not. Even if you don't plan to do it and you don't see anything wrong with what workdawg said you will probably analyze every question asked by a newbie to find a deeper hidden message that might not be there. Just how EE did to me in the beginning.. He analyzed every one of my question and then accused me of budding with Drixx and being scum because I was asking questions as a newbie that I needed answered.. Alright in this game I figured we are suppose to break down and analyze our follow townies in order to find scum but isn't scums job to create doubt and confusion in our minds. For now I still feel like he is scum and I feel like his mind set is that of scums.

I'm not saying AT ALL that asking questions is scummy. I am simply saying that given the assumption of a Kahlan/Drixx scumteam, it would make more sense for you (Kahlan) to ask your questions in the main thread and on the scum QT.

The base assumption of newbie's question was that you were scum with Drixx, the IC. So if we elaborate from there, there are really two options.

1. You ask your questions to your scum partner (in this case Drixx) in the scum QT. In this case, the town knows nothing. It makes zero difference to town.
2. You ask your questions in the game thread. Since we were specifically talking about questions that you asked to the IC (that he is obligated to answer truthfully and regardless of alignment) they can really only lead to you looking like a newbie.

Overall, my point is that in case 1. There is no affect of you posting your questions to the scum QT because as the town, we aren't going to see it so we couldn't possible get a scum tell from your questions.
In case 2, your questions are only making you look like a newb, which you are. In that case, I think generally speaking people will be a little bit more forgiving to a newb. Those questions didn't contain any actual game content, just meta stuff, so no chance of a slip. The only potential effect of posting your questions is to gain some newbie cred, which possibly comes along with more forgiveness.

[Workdawg]

@Ness

*trys to hold back laughter*
*can't*
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQSsrvsszcs[/youtube]

I'm a Vanilla townie and

you should all just take my word for it

~I don't see either of them as an easy target, i just saw either one as scummers. Both were argueing and both have made a few things that stuck out to me so far, so thats why i went after them.

I also don't see how me making a RQS is scummy? It was supposed to help us get somewhere because all that was happening at the time was pointless rambling. I'm not here to cover my butt, thats the truth.

Can you explain this post? What's so funny that you posted a youtube video? What prompted you to claim? Why should we "just take your word for it" that your are a VT?

...
That should answer your 2 questions, but i'm probably going to look like scum no matter what i say right now.

You answered newbie's two questions in the above quote (I removed it to save us the wall of text). Why would addressing newbie's concerns make you look scummy? Do you think your answers are making you look scummy? Are you concerned about looking scummy?

[Workdawg]

*sighs*

No way to defend myself right now because i have no idea how to.

Well, you could start by responding to post 178

[Workdawg]

From what I've heard and my experience, scum are most often in the middle of the wagon

I agree that this is the most common scenario. However, especially early on D1, scum could have a lot to gain by starting -- or at least pushing -- a wagon on their team mate.

Assume, for instance, that Ness is partnered with EE:

- EE is already established as suspecting Drixx in 50.
- Ness establishes suspicion on both EE and Drixx in 72.
- Ness hops on EE wagon in 72. (Whether this starts the wagon or pushes it is irrelevant to the supposition.)
- Ness busses EE through until 102 where he gives it up, despite it being made clear that they both still disagree and suspect each other.

This is an incredibly safe maneuver overall, because we all know that no one is getting lynched that early in the game.

The goal would be to set up EE as an overly aggressive player. Because as I noted last time, scum would be crazy to draw so much attention to themselves, right? So EE remains in some small amount of danger, but really not any worse than any run of the mill aggressive townie might be. Meanwhile, Ness has had a chance to buss without actually getting his partner lynched. Now EE has an established persona and can accuse people indiscriminately to muddy the waters, either causing a no-lynch D1 or maybe even hitting gold and getting the town to lynch their own. At the same time, Ness can play the somewhat calmer traditional scum role, stepping in to push wagons in the middle and try to keep enough suspicion off him to make it to the endgame.

Too complicated, maybe? But everyone here (aside from Kahlan) appears to have some experience, and scum *does& get daytalk, which would help immensely.

So I'm gonna go out on a limb and...

VOTE: N e s s

This is definitely an interesting theory. It's something that I mentioned at the end of my post 174 where I came to the same conclusion after analyzing the Drixx wagon. You elaborated a bit more on it, obviously, but it's definitely something to look back on if either of them flips scum later on.

@ Newbie

... EE already said scum are usually in middle of the wagon so if Ness were to push wagons in the middle, wouldn't that make it obvious?

EE made a very valid point: Scum is

usually

in the middle of a wagon. (Note the emphasis.)

The main goal of scum is to be above suspicion whenever possible. After the lynching, everyone will try and figure who actually DROVE the wagon to Lynchville. Sure, the two people most suspected are typically the guy who rented the car (first person) and the guy who actually tossed the body in the trunk (the last person.) Everyone else in the wagon shouting encouragement has a little bit more plausible deniability. But make no mistake, if the lynchee flips town, every single person in that wagon is going to get scrutized pretty heavily.

On the morning of D2, we will have a corpse (two, actually) on our hands to provide our first bit of real evidence. Since everyone on the wagon will be suspected, scum only has to be somewhat less suspicious than the townies who participated. If they think they can do that while starting a wagon or hammering, they'll try it. But usually the middle is a lot safer.

But hey, safe doesn't win wars, right? And scum makes as many mistakes as town does, they are just better informed.

Huh, I thought I had made a comment about scum placement on wagons in the previously mentioned post 174, but I guess I didn't. I hope people realize it was implied with the comments about Ness wagon hopping, but I guess I forgot to elaborate on that part.

[Workdawg]

Uh, the quotes above are pretty screwed up... Can you try and post that again?

[Workdawg]

Prodge

-_-

[Workdawg]

I will be V/LA THROUGH Saturday.

[Workdawg]

...

~. Thanks. I had assumed WD would be V/LA until Sat, but not through. I'm withdrawing his Prod. ~~~.Zar

@Zar - Can you let us know if TheDominator is V/LA or not? It seems you might have confused my V/LA with him. He didn't post in the thread he will be V/LA, but you said he was while I posted in the thread and you didn't say I was. Just looking for clarification because he hasn't posted since Thursday and as of this post it's been about 50hrs since he posted and I don't see any message from you saying he's being prodded (again...).

[Workdawg]

Well, looks like I didn't miss too much the past couple days.

A couple thoughts...

Ness is rising on my scum-dar and EE is dropping. Right now I'd say that are about even. EE seems to be acting a lot more reasonably recently, I am really curious about what Ness has to say when he returns. I was really hoping for a response from him by now, but I guess not... Between those two, they are still my top 2 on the scumdar.

Drixx remains a curious subject to me. He's hinting at some potentially significant things, but still withholding that information from us, so I'm pretty wary of that.

EE has requested read lists. I'm not a big fan of that. You guys probably know by now that I tend to really elaborate on my thoughts in mafia. Because of that I am a bit reluctant to give town reads because I feel like it lets the scum get an idea of what actions they could take to appear more town to me. You should have a pretty good idea of who I am suspicious of simply based on my posts so far.

---

...
Regardless of my feelings on anyone else here, I can't ignore that. It's nearing policy lynch status, which bothers me immensely.

The above is soul commenting on TheDom.

I REALLY hate policy lynches in newbie games. Newbies make stupid mistakes and while the chances of a newbie being scum aren't insignificant, it seems to me they will more often accidentally scum tell vs just making newbie mistakes. But he's an SE. He has no excuse for newbie mistakes and thus should be exempt from the previous statement. That said...

Not only has he been all but absent, but the few posts he has made are all things that others have already pointed out. He has been zero help so far. Does that make him scum? Not necessarily. Right now though, he's on the top of my list of "bad town". If we can't come to a consensus about who to lynch before the deadline, I would be okay with lynching him.

As I posted above, we need to know if TheDom is really V/LA or not

[Workdawg]

I can't withhold information that I don't have. What I have at the moment is speculation. And at the moment it's speculation I'm not even very confident about. There's something odd going on in the way the wagons formed... but figuring out what to make of that observation is the problem.

Fair enough. Is there anything about the wagons that is curious to you that hasn't already been pointed out? Do you have any theories about the wagons that you can share?

[Workdawg]

Workdawg -

I'm not having much luck here. His usefulness as an SE is perhaps blinding me to the obvious. Somebody pitch me a wild scum theory about him so I can try to prove / disprove it!

Don't let my SE title skew your thoughts on me. Unlike the IC role, I have NO obligation to help anyone but myself here. The IC is obligated to answer questions about game theory but I am not. My only obligation is to play to my win condition.

---

@Kahlan

- That's a good point about Ness about how he states that he has experience with mafia. He was throwing off some newbie tells, IMO, before going AWOL and I let that cloud my judgement on him recently.

...
That should answer your 2 questions, but i'm probably going to look like scum no matter what i say right now.

*sighs*

No way to defend myself right now because i have no idea how to.

These two quotes to me are pretty big newb-tells, and since he hasn't been around in a while, that's what's stuck in my mind the most. However, as you pointed out, he claims to have 5 games under his belt, so there really is no excuse for this. With this new context brought to light, it seems more scummy to me. It feels more like scum flailing around because they feel like they are under pressure. I was going to wait until Ness got back and see how he would defend himself before making up my mind, but I think this is enough to change it up.

VOTE: Ness

As a side note: Nice job Kahlan, you're doing some good scumhunting IMO. Keep it up. Worry less about trying to defend yourself and more about trying to find scum.

---

Lastly, it seems clear that TheDom is not V/LA. In fact, I checked his profile and he's been very active in many other games.

@TheDom

- Please either commit to this game or replace out. It's not fair to us for you to lurk so much and provide pretty much no content when you do post.

[Workdawg]

Oh ffs, please don't hammer before he actually posts something.

[Workdawg]

@Ness

- Please respond to post 178 during your catch up.

[Workdawg]

Oh ffs, please don't hammer before he actually posts something.

@workdawg this make me curious. Why ask us not to hammer ness but yet you don't unvote for him? Newbie came in a unvoted. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

Well, I'm always weary of a wagon getting to L-1 early on in newbie games. Especially after my last game where town lynched someone that I felt was obviously a newbie, not necessarily scum, and they did it very early in the day. I guess it was sort of a knee-jerk reaction based on that. I wanted to make very sure everyone knew he was at L-1.

As for why I wouldn't unvote, simply because I still think he's scummy. I'm not afraid of him being at L-1, I'm just afraid of someone accidentally hammering him before he has a chance to explain himself.

[Workdawg]

If I'm not afraid of him being at L-1, why would I unvote?

Being at L-1 is MUCH different than being at even L-2 and it's a unique amount of pressure to be under. If every time a player gets to L-1 someone else unvotes, then it doesn't mean anything.

[Workdawg]

Wow, this is really frustrating and it's from an SE which makes it even worse I think. I'm not sure I 100% agree that this is definitely within his meta. Simply looking at his posts, I see that he often does one line replies, but there are also quite a few posts where he does actually discuss things. Granted those posts are like 3-4 lines long each, but it's better than 3-4 words. However, at this point I'm definitely on board with lynching him at the end of the day if we don't find scum.

@TheDom

- It seems fairly likely that you're going to be lynched today, do you even care?

@Ness

- Where is all this content you keep promising us?

[Workdawg]

@Drixx

- Where do you stand on TheDom?

[Workdawg]

@Ness

- You said that you'd post content in posts 251, 255, 267, 270, and 293. Yet the only content you posted was a response to my post 178, which I specifically asked for twice. Since this wagon formed, you've posted pretty much nothing. You've flailed around giving us nothing to work with. A bunch of OMGUS and whining about how we are wrong. If you don't want to be lynched, then you have to actually provide some content for us to read that will convince us that you're town.

---

...
- I could be convinced to lynch Ness or Dom, based almost solely on lack of interaction with the game. I honestly get the scummier vibe from Ness -- he already had my vote from a while ago, so I have not changed it. Dom is almost aggressively inactive. I am willing to vote on him, but I'm also harboring the hope that he replaces out so we can have someone active.

I'm kind of in the same boat. It's a hard choice though. As you said, they both have been pretty inactive recently, but my vote's on Ness over TheDom. The only reason I'd vote for TheDom is for compromise/policy lynch just to avoid a no-lynch. He hasn't posted shit, but he hasn't been scummy either. It's certainly possible he's lurking as scum, but Ness has been at least a bit scummy. Opportunistic voting at the beginning, flailing around since then.

[Workdawg]

@Kahlan

- You should not be afraid of seeming like scum. That's a newbie mistake. If you explain your actions and are genuine in your intentions, we should be able to see that. That's the only real advantage that town has; that their intentions should always be pure. Scum, on the other hand, have to lie and deceive the rest of the players to win the game. Let your actions help the rest of us determine your alignment, you can't be afraid of doing what you think is right.

As for the whole wagon thing, it's HIGHLY unlikely that scum would not be on the wagon if a mislynch occurs. For that reason, every player on the wagon will be suspect. However, we should be able to look back at how the wagon formed and analyze each persons intent when they voted and that should give us clues about who had good intentions and who didn't.

---

Also, hello huntress! Welcome aboard. I look forward to you posting so we can actually get an idea of that slot's alignment. Needless to say, TheDom was pretty much worthless in that slot.

[Workdawg]

Finally some content from Ness, unfortunately there isn't a lot of content there. Some basic reads, but a lot of OMGUS it seems to me.

My reads right now
...

Workdawg/SoulMonarch

: These 2 have been pushing me to lynch. I'm suspicious of these 2 because~

A) They're saying i'm scum for not giving them information
B) I'm simply "innactive".

Workdawg also claims that its likely that whoever is on the lynch train likely isn't the mafia, but thats suspicious to me. Obviously 1 of the mafia are going to be on the lynch train. Workdawg is the #1 person to be pushing a lynch on me, and SoulMonarch is too. Soul has been giving plenty of reads on me and others, and i think he's somewhat ok.
...

@Ness

, show me where I'm "pushing" your wagon. Since I voted for you, I've asked you to actually post and straight up told you what we need to see from you... that's far from pushing your wagon. If your argument is that I presented the best case for your lynch, that may be true, but I have hardly mentioned that at all since. I'm not out there yelling at people to vote for you or constantly bringing up how scummy you are. Your apathy for the game is "pushing your lynch" more than anything right now.

Furthermore, my reasons for voting you originally had nothing to do with your lack of content. (Which is what your points A and B sum up to above) If you go back and reread either my ISO or just the everyone's posts while your wagon formed you will find the reasons. My post 174 is where I initially call an FOS on you. This was because of the fact that you pretty much dropped your arguments with EE and pretended like they never happened, and then jumped on Drixx's wagon for seemingly no reason. I didn't even vote for you until days later in post 238. You can review that post as well, but the gist of it is that you were giving off some interesting tells. I originally interpreted them as newb tells, but when Kahlan pointed out that you aren't a newb, they looked much more like scum tells.

[Workdawg]

Well, that sucks. It is too bad that our IC is gone. It occurs to me now after looking back that Drixx mentioned a few "interesting things" early in the day that he never elaborated on, so we're going to miss out on that, as well as his guidance as an experience scum hunter.

...
Anyways now we have some things to dicuss like

how I was wrong about drixx being scum

, and we were all wrong about NESS being scum. It is pretty late here so I will go back and look at some ISO's to see who I think would be likely to kill drixx (welcome to WIFOM city)

If you thought Drixx was scum, why was your vote on Kahlan at the end of the day and not Drixx?

[Workdawg]

So, I went back over the wagon on Ness. Here's a summary of it.

Chronological order (bold on L-1 and unvotes from L-1).
- newbie (post 144) - Votes for Ness due to wagon hoping, quoting post 122 as "opportunistic".
- Workdawg (post 174 - Minor FOS based on wagon hoping as well.
- soul (post 185) - Votes for Ness based on speculation of a EE/Ness scumteam. Speculation was based on suggesting their argument was staged to distance each other and setting up EE as an aggressive townie.
- newbie (post 225) - changes read on Ness to "leaning toward newbtown" and says she's not really comfortable with the wagon anymore.
- Workdawg (post 238) - Votes for Ness, citing things that appeared to be newb tells, however Kahlan pointed out that Ness claimed to have 5 games of experience, ruling out the newb factor.

First L-1 below

- EE (post 242) - Votes Ness and puts him at

L-1

. Cites Ness' apparent apathy for the game. (Further clarifies his stance in post 246
- newbie (post 244) -

Unvotes

to prevent an early lynch, also points out that Ness already claimed.
- newbie (post 313) - Puts Ness back at

L-1

when the game slows down.
- Workdawg (post 322) - Points out the Ness keeps promising content and not delivering. Pleads with him to post something useful so that we can get a better read on him.
- Huntress (post 335) - "Intends to vote Ness" citing a disconnect between the way he started the game and his reactions to being voted. Partially because of some connections Ness was establishing with others (accusing Ness of buddying/distancing?)
- Usted (post 336) - states intent to hammer, also claims he has said before that he thinks Ness is scummy.
- EE (post 341) -

Unvotes

"not ready for hammer now that {Ness} is here"
- EE (post 345) - States intent to revote in 24 hours if Ness doesn't answer questions.
- Kahlan (post 355) - Votes Ness to

L-1

. Has a long post about it, so I will only include the main points here: Excuses (essentially lack of posting content), Doesn't want to/know how to defend himself. Wagon hopping. "Faking being a newbie".
- Drixx (post 359) - states intent to hammer, citing short time left in the day.
- Usted (post 376) - reiterates intent to hammer
- EE (post 382) -

Stop, Hammer time!

In summary, literally everyone in the game expressed some amount of interest lynching Ness. Either voting for him or stating intent to hammer once he was at L-1.

Reading through the wagon, one thing in particular stood out to me, and that's Usted. His first mention in the list above, (post 336). In that post he claims to have said before that Ness is scummy. This has prompted me to read his ISO. In it, I've found some minor mentions of Ness. In posts 132, 138, and 181 he mentions a possible Drixx/Ness scumteam. However, in post 271 Usted states that the way Ness has been responding makes him (Usted) not really want to lynch Ness. Certainly a lot happens in 90 posts, so it's possible his read changes, no big deal here. Then post 336 rolls around and Usted is ready to hammer, citing his previous suspicions of Ness. I read Ness' ISO leading up to post 271 (where Usted states that he likes the way Ness has been responding) and between posts 271 and 336 (where Usted gives intent to hammer) and I don't really see where Usted would have changed opinions. There's only 2 posts in between from Ness. Those two posts are Ness' usual "i'll post content" and OMGUS. The only thing I can think of to justify this shift in opinion is that post 270 (the post immediately before Usted states that he likes the way Ness is responding) is a fairly lengthy post (for Ness) in response to a bunch of questions I raised. It's one of the most content filled posts Ness made, so maybe that left Usted feeling good at that moment?

It seems curious to me that Usted more or less came out of nowhere with intent to hammer Ness. However, I also think it'd be strange for him to join the wagon (i'm including his stated intent as being on the wagon) at this point if he is scum. He could easily have just more or less ignored the wagon and let the rest of us lynch Ness. Of course, maybe then he'd look like scum because he wasn't involved and it would appear that he was trying to avoid it. Obviously, this is a bunch of WIFOM as well.

One thing that I will state is that I find it pretty unlikely that both scum were on that wagon, considering literally everyone was willing to lynch Ness there would be no reason for both of them to be involved. That does conveniently imply that either Usted or Huntress is scum though.

pedit: This post took me a long time to write and I see others have posted in the mean time. I'll address that in a bit here.

[Workdawg]

Over the course of Day 1 I in fact stated that I thought many different people were scum. In 132 and 138 I thought there was a ness/drixx scum team (in retrospect that is kinda hilarious).

in #309 I gave my reason for voting Kahlan.

I don't see how me saying that last day phase I thought drixx was scummy but I voted on kahlan is any different than you saying that you thought EE was scummy but moved your vote over to Ness.

You're right. I just struck me as odd that you would immediately mentioned that you thought Drixx was scum but I guess it makes sense since he was just shot. I see now that you had a reason to vote Kahlan yesterday.

[Workdawg]

I love your post soul!

- Workdawg wanted Drixx dead because he recognized that Drixx wielded enough influence to turn the town and nab him... or his partner. In fact, Workdawg had been doing a good job of playing a townie so far -- but Drixx was hunting around his partner and Workdawg wasn't willing to give up his teammate... just yet! It was Workdawg, in the kitchen, with the rope!

A damnit, you got me. I totally tried to make it look like suicide. Drixx hanging from the kitchen lights with the chair pushed just out of reach. Clearly it must have been self inflicted!

[Workdawg]

Now, if I was scum I would have wanted to make sure that I was on that NESS train almost regardless of what other people were wanting to post because of the fact had stated that he was scummy to begin with. I can see how me pushing on NESS a bit and then not voting him would make me look scummy, but I don't really have to worry about being scummy this game because I don't have anything to hide.

Can you explain this to me? If you are scum, why would you WANT to be on the wagon when you know it's a mislynch.

...
Also at the risk of seeming OMGUSy I think that workdawg could be in the same boat. Not as much flavor, but he recapped the NESS train, and then pointed his finger at me which is the easy thing to do.
...

So, I'm scum because I did the easy thing to do? Why is pointing my finger at you the easy thing to do?

[Workdawg]

Weird, I posted last night but it doesn't look like it went through... anyway.

Drixx is this games supposed most experienced player and has flipped town. Near the end of D1 he stated that he wanted me lynched. I'd say I'm a pretty easy target. Scum obviously saw this opportunity to make sure that I would be looked into today.

Also I was really pretty inactive D1 so idk if this site does any Lynch all lurkers policy lynches but I'd fit into that policy I'd say.

So your mixing a bit of WIFOM in with your OMGUS, I see.

Also, what about my question about Ness' wagon?

[Workdawg]

...

(1)

Now, if I was scum I would have wanted to make sure that I was on that NESS train almost regardless of what other people were wanting to post because of the fact had stated that he was scummy to begin with.

(2)

I can see how me pushing on NESS a bit and then not voting him would make me look scummy

, but I don't really have to worry about being scummy this game because I don't have anything to hide.

(3)

Sure, pushing on someone and then not voting them is inconsistent. If you think someone is scum then you vote them.

I stated that I thought Ness was scum, but I never voted him.

(4)

That is inconsistent and if I were playing as scum I would have played it differently.

Which of course if a Wifomy answer but its the truth.

I've put numbers on select quotes from your posts, and italicized the specific parts I'll be referring to.

I don't really feel like you explained anything in more detail, just sort of reworded things. 2/3 are pretty much saying the same things and 1/4 are pretty much saying the same thing.

2/3 is "(3)pushing someone and not voting for them is inconsistent ( (2)which looks scummy)"
1/4 is "If I were scum, I would have voted for who I said was scummy"

So I guess you're just saying that, if you were scum, you would have been more consistent. It sounds like you're trying to justify a scum-slip. "I didn't vote for who I said was scummy, which makes me look scummy, BUT if I were scum, I wouldn't have done that, so I'm not scum" ??

WIFOM indeed. That really seems like a long stretch compared to you just being scum, seeing an easy lynch coming up and wanting to avoid being on the wagon.

VOTE: Usted

[Workdawg]

So I've been thinking about this for a bit, even considered doing it day 1.

Now I think I've come up with a soft claim that allows our other tpr to remain hidden, but allows for them to better understand the setup without giving the same luxury to scum. And imo it also clears my name. You'll have to trust me a bit here. The reason I'm being sketchy about this is because if I just outright claim then scum will have a better understanding of why tprs they are against.

I'm a tpr and my role rests in the left two columns.

What the hell... I've literally spent the past two hours trying to figure out how this helps town. I can't figure it out. The other PR will know you are telling the truth (assuming that is the case), but they can't verify that without giving up that they are also a PR. So you've essentially just bought yourself one secret ally out of the six of us. That ally can't even help you without doing even more damage to the town. This seems pretty self serving to me, but I guess I can't waste more time on you because of the chance it might be true.

VOTE: UNVOTE

[Workdawg]

@Kahlan

- I'm feeling kind of the same way now that Usted has soft claimed. I really need to go back and reread the whole thread I think. As for my unvote, I thought that was pretty clear, but I guess I'll explain. My case on Usted is almost entirely WIFOM related. His vote for you instead of Ness yesterday and how he's responded to my case makes me still think he's scummy. Due to the very nature of WIFOM though, it's not a strong case. It's just the case that has had my attention recently.

Even though I can't think of a reason for him to soft claim, I think it's more likely that he is telling the truth than he's scum trying to pull some kind of gambit. Newbie and I seem to be the only ones interested in his actions, so it's not like he's under a lot of pressure that he needs to make a big move to save himself (if he's scum). So, that said, I don't think it's worth spending more time pushing him right now because it's probably not a good idea to lynch him today on the chance that he is a PR. Unless he does something really scummy, we probably should look at others. Even if he is scum pulling a big gambit, his partner is out there and it'd be better to try and find that person.

[Workdawg]

Well, I guess I'll just delete the post I was typing... I was just going to comment about how I don't think we should be talking more about this in case the scum haven't quite figured it out yet. That's a long shot, especially with day-talk, but hey. Now that you've officially claimed, scum knows the exact setup... so there is that...

I guess this seems like a somewhat reasonable claim, scum obviously aren't going to shoot you tonight. However, I'm still not sure how this has helped town at all aside from getting you out of trouble...

[Workdawg]

Certainly that's true, but it's not like you were in any danger of being lynched when you claimed.

[Workdawg]

I've been trying to figure out the viability of Usted fake-claiming in this scenario. The motivation is pretty obvious, to avoid a lynch, but what are the chances of it working...

So, claiming BP can only really be disproven if a cop or doctor exists in the game (because it would prove a BP is not in the setup). Obviously to disprove his claim, either of those roles would have to claim against him. That would be disastrous and wouldn't prove anything. It would simply be a he-said/she-said scenario. There's only a 50% chance of this being the case. I don't think that scum would gambit outing one of their players to MAYBE find a cop or doctor.

On the other side of the coin, BP seems to be uniquely suited for a fake-claim in that scum would know the setup if another townie claims a role, it should give the scum a lot more information. BP is in an intersection with the mafRB and the mafGoon, so another townie claiming would give them a lot of information. (The cop is in a similar spot, but would require him to post night action results, making things more risky). Additionally, other town roles such as JK and Tracker (the other possible roles based on his claim) wouldn't need to target him as neither role would serve a purpose doing so as newbie pointed out in post 458. I suppose he could claim and let his scum-buddy do all the work, but if he loses his partner, that would possibly be bad.

In any case, scum now knows with 100% certainty the setup. That also means that it's possible for them to counter claim the opposite role (JK or tracker, and assuming he's telling the truth) and we have no way to distinguish who is telling the truth. Kind of shitty for us I think.

As much as his other actions have seemed scummy, I really don't think we can lynch Usted until we get into lynch-or-lose, at which point we'll hopefully have other PRs to claim and verify him since we'll have to put all our cards on the table anyway.

[Workdawg]

pedit: This post was a draft that I built on from earlier today. I've had a long night so I'll catch up with the most recent posts tomorrow.

[Workdawg]

Usted's claim still seems sketchy to me. His wagoning yesterday bothered me. The conclusion I came to in post 429 really bothers me... but I still don't think we can lynch him.

VOTE: Soul - I don't really like the way he was theorycrafting around Usted's claim. Seemed like he was fishing to try and get more information. Usted's claim post did have all the information he wanted to give up, but Soul's pushing forced Usted to elaborate and reveal more information that didn't help town. I don't really see the point of that. Non-PR town really have no need to know the setup.

[Workdawg]

EE is an interesting character and kind of bounces back and forth between scum and town for me. At the start of the game he certainly seemed scummy based on his pushing of Kahlan but he came back towards a town read later in the day. Today he's been pretty neutral. The only thing that really stands out to me today is the fact that EE gave Kahlan a strong town read, and then suggested maybe he should vote for her. I'm currently trying to sort out just how scummy that is and how it compares to soul. I don't really see his reaction to Usted's claim as scummy, though apparently Usted himself does. That puts him back into the scum pool today for sure.

Some other thoughts right now:

I still find it very hard to believe that there were two scum on Ness' wagon. Unfortunately, that also means that either Usted or Huntress would be scum. Now, Huntress has been pretty absent today just stopping by once in a while to drop little tidbits, but it's still very hard to read that slot. She's certainly better than TheDom, but she's really not giving us much to work with. Usted has been the hot topic, so you guys know where I stand on that. I guess my scum reads are:

soul - for pushing Usted's claim and forcing him to reveal more about it.
EE - for previous scum reads from D1 and for the flip flopping on Kahlan.
Usted - for previously mentioned reasons, but near the bottom of the list because of uncontested claim
Huntress - simply unsure about her since there is so little content

[Workdawg]

I stand by it.

I am aware that people tend to read "pushing" as scummy behavior. I don't take it personally. (Standard moralistic fallacy:

"This person seems like a jerk right now, therefore this person is most likely scum."

)

I typically avoid making that type of play unless I think the potential outcome is worth it. In this case, I considered it worth the possibility of a mislynch or making myself a target for the NK. Figure it this way: I know that if I die I'll flip town. So the question becomes "does everyone else benefit from knowing that I was genuine?"

Also, I have elaborated a couple times about why Usted's 'reveal' did not give any additional information about the setup to anyone. Moreover, I also have elaborated on why transparency is beneficial to town in this case. The only people who benefit from obscuring information are the scum.

I won't lie: It bothers me a touch that you reiterated a point that I have already put lots of time into, and did it as if I had not even tried.

...

I don't find pushing to be scummy necessarily, obviously we have to do it to find scum. I don't think I said that I felt you were scummy for pushing Usted. I said that it felt to me like you were fishing for more information about the setup. I know you've said that there was no more information to be found, so it's kind of a moot point, but I will elaborate on why I'm not entirely sure about that below.

As for the second bolded part... I'm sorry I guess? I'm not really sure what you are referring to though.

---

@Kahlan

- The problem for me, and it seems like for you as well, is the assumption that Usted knows with 100% certainty that there is another PR. Usted never says it in any of his posts until he hard claims in post 450 and lays it all out there. It is implied, but since he never explicitly stated it, there was no way to know for sure. And because he was being intentionally vague up until post 450, there's really know way to know for sure if he knows 100% or not. Now in 450 he does state it, so that makes things clear.

Here are all the posts where he talks about this:
[spoiler="Posts talking about "the other PR"]

So I've been thinking about this for a bit, even considered doing it day 1.

Now I think I've come up with a soft claim that allows

our other tpr

to remain hidden, but allows for them to better understand the setup without giving the same luxury to scum. And imo it also clears my name. You'll have to trust me a bit here. The reason I'm being sketchy about this is because if I just outright claim then scum will have a better understanding of why tprs they are against.

I'm a tpr and my role rests in the left two columns.

The other tpr

knows I'm telling the truth.

At this point I see Soul as the most likely scum. It seems as if they tried to skew what my claim actually means. I thought out all of the scenarios in my head about what information my claim would give

the other pr

as well as what information it could potentially give Mafia.

I am in fact aware of the 1 column or row feature. That is the whole basis of my claim. Any time someone is a PR they know the exact setup between 2 options (their row or column). I don't know the exact setup but I do have it narrowed down between 1 row and 1 column.

I think would is also trying to town slip by talking about the possible existence of a Mafia rb.


And for the reasons stated above
VOTE: soulmonarch

im not sure what you want me to respond to. You didn't ask me any questions. Your ability to analyze the situation so well makes me feel that you have more information than the VT's. God bless you if you are

the other pr

, because you should've layed low. Thus my vote remains.

Here is what I intended to be interpreted from my message.

I am a pr in the left two columns, and

I know that there is another pr

. That means that the game is NOT Row 1, Column 2, or Column three.

The town roles in the left two columns are JK, Cop, VT, and one shot. If I was a VT I am pretty sure I would be not aware that I was a VT from the matrix. If I were JK there would be 50/50 shot that we had a one shot or a VT. if I was cop it would be 50/50 between VT and doctor. But I KNOW there is another PR.

So obviously yes I am one shot bpv townie. Anyone given my message could have interpreted this.

Now I suppose it is possible that I could be lying about this claim, but why would I go to all the trouble.

As a one shot bpv there is a 50/50 that there is a goon/goon setup or a goon/RB'r mafia setup. So now mafia knows more than we do.

I was trying to send a message to the other PR but you guys decided to go out and say it anyways.

Is it common to lynch claimed power roles? Surely not.

[/spoiler]

So, operating under the ASSUMPTION that he knows there is another PR with 100% certainty, then his only role could be BP.

[Workdawg]

Sorry guys, I've had a really busy past few days and haven't had a chance to really keep up. Thankfully not a lot of posting has gone on, so I haven't missed much. I have one long catchup post, but I'm going to break it into a few posts to make it easier for people to quote/reply if they feel the need. First up...

Recent point of discussion.

Scum on Ness' wagon?

Anyone else feel that both scums could have been riding the ness train?

Workdawg's logic does make some sense: Since most everyone was leaning into the Ness lynch, scum would be pretty likely to just let it happen without their vote --

maybe they'd voice some non-committal support for it to seem like they were part of the mob mentality, but otherwise it would have been smartest to stay out of it.

...

And that's exactly why I was getting a scum read on Usted before he claimed. Obviously the Ness wagon was a bit of a cluster with people unvoting at L-1 and revoting, etc. And with all the other non-vote support... it's just so hard to figure out. Like I said before, literally everyone voiced commitment to the wagon, but only the people actually on the wagon at the end (Soul, Work, Newbie, Kahlan, EE) had actually voted for him. The other 3 (Huntress, Usted, Drixx) had simply stated intent but had never actually been on the wagon. I think the fact those those three had never even voted support the idea that one of them is scum even more, however, of course both scum could be on that wagon. They could have started it, hopped on in the middle, or gotten on at the end. I've already gone into why I brought this line up. It's big ball of WIFOM.

[Workdawg]

...
Here is one of my theories as I see playing out right now...

Soul/EE

Soul started the wagon on ness and EE finished it.
...
Here are some other team I think I could see too..
Soul/Workdawg
Workdawg/EE


Okay all three of these gentlemen are smooth talkers and can talk themselves out of almost anything I say and which of course causes me to doubt but if we are going off reads and gut feelings I think it might make it a bit easier... lol maybe.

Here are my reads

Usted

Going off his reads and claim I think he is more than likely town especially since no one had disproved his claim.

newbie and huntress

read/feel as town to me

Workdawg

I will say even putting him as a possible scum team^^ I think I'm leaning more town with him. That doesnt mean I'm completely sold but he saying a few thing lately I agree with.

EE

Ah EE I know I will probably be hearing from you but I feel right now EE could be scum. He is very quick to attack those who call him out or vote for him.

Soul

seems like scum to me at the moment. He is really good at writing posts but I felt that by him breaking down usted claim was actually worse then usted actually claiming. It was like he was trying to find out which exact role usted had or find the other PRT. If he is town then analyzing it probably wasn't wise choice because scum found out more information to help them possibly win.


VOTE: Soul

You say you are leaning town on me, but then you throw me in with your two scum reads and say that literally all possible combinations of EE, Soul, and me are your scum team reads? I guess I'm just pretty much your third scum read, despite you saying I am leaning town. Normally you should be looking for interaction between the two players that indicates a scumteam. Your argument for EE/Soul might have been valid if it were accurate. As Newbie pointed out, soul didn't start that wagon though.

[Workdawg]

Lynch me before we lynch soul, that's how certain I am in my town read of him.

I just doubt scum would get into a discussion like that over power roles. It seems like it only makes him look scummier. And I was town reading him before that and agree with his views. I've gone to say things and then seen them better said by soul. Very not interested in his lynch today.

I don't really like that first post, and that followup... Defending your partner with some WIFOM?

Huntress is number one.

Strong town are kahlan and soul, with Usted, although I agree with soul he seems a bit.. shady about the ordeal. Newbie is... nullish. Detached. As does workdawg, but I'd prefer a newbie lynch over work, I think/.

And that's because Huntress opened with vote on work, which I think is unlikely as scum.

What? These are consecutive posts. Huntress is number one, because of an action that is unlikely as scum? Are you replying to different things here or what, because that makes NO sense at all.

[Workdawg]

OMFG, how did soul sneak a post in between my walls?

My conclusion to all of that. VOTE: EE
My last post with the set of quotes from him shows a lot of, interesting, things for him to say. That with his recent flip flopping on his read of Kahlan has me very nervous about him.

Outside of that soul hasn't done anything to drop my scum read on him, but EE's recent posts have caused him to climb fast.
Huntress remains a frustrating slot of course. Never officially gone V/LA and has managed to post just enough to avoid a prod recently, but has posted so little that I just don't know. Unfortunately, the deadline is coming up soon and I'm afraid of going ANOTHER day without being to get a read on this slot.

[Workdawg]

I'm going to "climb fast" if you intentionally misread my posts, buddy.

Doh, sorry. That actually makes sense. I pointed out that they were consecutive but didn't actually read them as one paragraph. My bad.

[Workdawg]

Huntress remains a frustrating slot of course. Never officially gone V/LA and has managed to post just enough to avoid a prod recently, but has posted so little that I just don't know. Unfortunately, the deadline is coming up soon and I'm afraid of going ANOTHER day without being to get a read on this slot.

What have you done to try to get a read on me? I didn't declare vla because I haven't been absent. I've been reading and responding to stuff but just haven't had the time to dig a bit deeper into the motives behind all the recent posts. I do have that time now.

I suppose that's fair. The rest of us, aside from Newbie have been posting pretty large posts. Newbie has been consistently doing so from the start, but has also been pretty thorough in explaining things that require it. Maybe that's why it seems like you haven't been contributing much. That's not to say that you have to post a wall of text for me to get a read on you, it's just that when comparing you to everyone else, it doesn't seem like there is a lot to work with.

I went back and reviewed your ISO (and of course context where required) to try and better get a read on you and I think what's bothering me/making you hard to read for me is that you are pretty vague. Up until post 482 you hadn't really presented a case on anyone. You mention a couple little tidbits here and there (such as my "crocodile tears" over Drixx), but mostly you keep saying things about how you are rereading and your gut says this or that. Those kinds of things aren't really providing content for us. I guess maybe I should engage you more, as you suggested.

[Workdawg]

I've been trying to find what gave me that gut read on Workdawg but apart from the following from post 85 I can't find anything definite in his ISO. I suspect it might have been some interaction that added to the read I had from 85.

As of last Monday (post 443) you claim to have read the thread about 3 times. Along with your original read on me (post 335, you said you wanted to review the wagons and other people. Did nothing come of that?

From that post I had the impression he was buddying up to Drixx.

I guess I can see how that might appear that way. I was actually a little bit concerned about Drixx's play at the time because he and I were together in my previous newbie game. At the time, the game hadn't finished yet (Newbie 1666) so I couldn't directly refer to it. His play during D1 in that game seemed different from his play in D1 in this game, so I was very weary of him. I was trying to make people take a closer look at what he was calling tells (by implying that things he says are tells maybe aren't really). It's a moot point now though.

Also, only

nine hours

into the game he is listing post counts and complaining that less than half the players in the thread have posted much more than a confirm/rvs vote and calling them lurkers, which is a misuse of the term. He then makes the point about votes being one of town's greatest tools and not letting his go to waste, then goes and votes for a player who he knows is on vla.

I suppose you are correct here as well, 9 hours isn't a ton. However, there were 85 posts during that time (9 per hour!) and having confirmed and come back to finding that, it certainly seemed like a lot had gone (and it obviously had). The only people who hadn't posted more than a couple of times were TheDom and me. So everyone else had a chance to chime in a few times, but why weren't some of them saying more? It just seemed like with all that was going on, it would be easy for a scum to lurk in there.

As for voting for TheDom, if you noticed when I voted for him, I mentioned that he was officially V/LA, but he also managed to show up during that time and put an "RVS" vote on EE. That seems like a bit of a stretch. Obviously you now know whether that slot is scum and will know if he was being opportunistic with that vote or if you really are town and that might really have been RVS. You can't know for sure his intent obviously, but you can make an educated guess. The rest of us don't have that luxury to look back and probably know what's going on. At the time it looked scummy, and no one else did, so I was voting for the scummiest person at the time. I hardly think that's a waste of the vote even if he's V/LA.

[Workdawg]

It doesn't take a moment to make an rvs vote so being on vla wouldn't stop him doing that. According to what you said at the beginning of 140, you thought EE was the scummiest at the time, so why did Dom leaving his rvs vote on him seem bad?

It just seemed very opportunistic, for obvious reasons.

[Workdawg]

Here's a quote from the post in which I vote for him in which I explain the reason...

...
Looking at the group of lurkers, I do find it suspicious that TheDominator put the 3rd vote on EE while he was supposed to be on V/LA. Makes me wonder if he isn't following a scum partner in either Kahlen or Drixx to help get the bandwagon going, but also appear innocent by way of absence.

VOTE: TheDom

Even if he is V/LA, votes are one of town's greatest tools and I won't let mine go to waste voting for no one.
...

Granted the scum-partner part is a bit of a stretch. I threw that in there to see if anyone would react to it at all. The main thing is that he slipped on the bandwagon after saying he'd be V/LA. He put EE at 3 votes in less than an hour from the start of the thread then he is conveniently not around to have to really explain it.

As I said, it could have really been random, but it does seem pretty opportunistic to me.

[Workdawg]

I can see that. Doing so would mean that the vote isn't truly random though, right?

TheDom claimed it was in post 206.

So either it was truly RVS, which I would say is suspicious. Or it was put there on purpose to get a reaction and TheDom lied about his intentions.

Since you know his (and now your) alignment, I'm interested about what you think about that...

[Workdawg]

Wow... lots of interesting stuff going on right now.

First off

WIFOM this VOTE: Eagle

This literally made me laugh... so yeah.

On Huntress...

I am very skeptical of her "it's RVS, not random" stuff. I understand that RVS isn't "roll the dice and pick a random player to vote" random. It's more like "pick some weird reason to vote and do it" random. TheDom seems to do that with his vote

VOTE: extrapolating
Will we need to know what hat extrapolating means for the test?

Furthermore, newbie pushes this same issue early on...

Hi guys,
It seems like we should be out of RVS so I won't be voting.
For now, I find EE over-analyzing or reaching. Kahlan didn't threaten to vote you because you are voting her. She merely defended herself. But I am not sure if EE's jumping to conclusion is scummy or not so I am not willing to put him at L-1. I find it too early since someone can accidentally (or scum) hammer to end the day early.
I find most others (Usted, Drixx and Kahlan; although I agree with EE that Kahlan uses her newbie card a lot) null except Dominator.
@Dominator Why join the wagon and park your vote if you are V/LA?

FoS: Dominator

I am not voting Dom because he's V/LA and I don't want to push someone who might not be there.

Also, to someone who asked how much experience we have, I don't have much but I have been reading a few games here and played a game here a few months ago but I replaced out due to not having enough time.

My vote was RVS.

So newbie straight up asks TheDom why he would join EE's wagon and go V/LA. TheDom responds "My vote was RVS." I suppose it's possible that TheDom subscribes to this RVS isn't random thing that Huntress is talking about. However, in post 204 TheDom votes for EE AGAIN. He never changed votes. That, to me, says that his vote was "RVS" random and that now he believes that there is enough information to confirm his vote is no longer RVS. That or he's just straight up not paying attention to the game and literally doesn't know where his vote is. I guess based on TheDom's play, either could be possible. Though why wouldn't he just say "it wasn't really random, I was testing his reaction". I really can't figure out how this makes sense.

This is a large ping on my scumdar in the direction of Huntress.

---

Soul and Kahlan's discussion about accidentally lynching the other PR... Soul's latest post looks a little bit like IoA. "Let me post all this statistical analysis", but when I read Kahlan's post I was thinking pretty much the same thing. So I guess that a not significant right now.

[Workdawg]

I had to go back and review the current vote count to make sure where we stand because I just remembered that we are fast approaching the deadline. I would prefer a lynch on Soul or Eagle (not EE... just noticed your sig), but apparently no one agrees with me at all. As I said above, TheDom's original "RVS" vote and Huntress' not so great (IMO) justification of it is a big hit to her townie-ness (again, IMO), so I wouldn't be upset about lynching her today. My record as town is pretty bad, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if my reads are just totally off.

[Workdawg]

Holy crap, giant fail on my part. I looked at the VC on the last page but forgot to actually look at the changes to the votes. Huntress pretty much hid the L-1 statement not only in a second post, but it's barely bolded at all. Ugh.

@Zar - Could we get an official vote count please?

If my count is correct, there are two votes on Huntress (L-2) and three on Eagle, currently at L-1. Newbie and Usted are currently not voting, though Usted has no claimed intent to hammer. I think Kahlan's vote for Eagle threw me off. I thought it was a joke, and now he's at L-1.

When I posted last night I figured the with Newbie's intent to hammer that the Huntress train had left the station. Especially considering Huntress' responses to the RVS situation seem like BS to me.

I'm going to VOTE: UNVOTE temporarily as reread last night and today's posts. I don't want today to end QUITE yet.

[Workdawg]

@Kahlan

- Can you explain your vote for Eagle? Your last set of reads (post 495 has Soul as your top scum read (and a vote for him) and you even changed to Newbie after that. I don't see you talking about Eagle in between at all. In fact, the context of your vote seems like it's simply vindictive, which is pretty scummy. From what I can tell, everyone is trying to help you understand WIFOM, and then when Eagle chimes in with his thoughts, you jump on his wagon. I mean, you didn't even respond to him and it seems like you've just been ignoring him for a while. I have a town read on you, but this... this really confuses me.

pedit:

I see you talked about your vote a little bit above, but I think my comments are still relevant. In response to your latest post...

Between the small amount of bold and the second post to say it, it's hard to notice, I dunno. It could be an easy oversight, I just missed it and I'm mad at myself for that.

I'm getting a sinking feeling about this. I know that I said that I'd prefer an Soul/EE lynch, but the more I think about Huntress, the more I like that wagon better. All the content that she's actually provided recently just doesn't sit right with me. I mean, is it just me that finds that whole "RVS" thing scummy? I know she's trying to talk her way out of it, but I think TheDom's actions there pretty much refute what Huntress is trying to say. She hasn't responded that my latest post on it though, so I guess we'll see what she has to say about that.

[Workdawg]

I am very skeptical of her "it's RVS, not random" stuff. I understand that RVS isn't "roll the dice and pick a random player to vote" random. It's more like "pick some weird reason to vote and do it" random. TheDom seems to do that with his vote

If you understand this, then why did you claim that either the vote was suspicious or that Dom was lying about it being rvs? I'm really not getting what you don't understand here.

I think I see what you are getting at here, and it's way back in post 534:

I can see that. Doing so would mean that the vote isn't truly random though, right?

TheDom claimed it was in post 206.

So either it was truly RVS, which I would say is suspicious. Or it was put there on purpose to get a reaction and TheDom lied about his intentions.

Since you know his (and now your) alignment, I'm interested about what you think about that...

So yes, I guess my statement doesn't really make sense since both cases I presented are pretty much the same. I meant to say that "either it truly was RVS,

which I am suspicious of

. Or he lied about his intentions." So that's a mistake on my part, but it lead to all of this very interesting discussion.

Regardless of that, let's analyze what's been said about this. There are two possible cases, right?

1. TheDom's vote was "random"
2. TheDom's vote was not "random"

In the first case, there is no issue, it happened to be on Eagle and put him at 3 votes.
In the second case, there is an issue. He intentionally put Eagle at 3 votes and then went V/LA.

Knowing which case is correct leads to different reads on Huntress. If case 1 is true, then there is no information there. However, if case 2 is true, that leads to a scummy read (IMO) because TheDom voted intentionally for Eagle and then LIED ABOUT IT. If we have no way to know the truth then we can only speculate based on the information in the thread. I've laid out my speculation based on this, so I won't rehash it. BUT, what if we do know the which case is the truth? Perhaps if TheDom TELLS us which is the truth. Like he does in post 206.

Now this leads to a little bit more speculation on whether he meant "My vote was RVS." as "my vote was random" or "my vote occurred during RVS but was actually intended to put pressure on Eagle". Go read post 206 again and tell me which you think is the case? I don't see how you can actually think TheDom meant anything other than "my vote was random".

This seems to give credence to case #1, which wouldn't even really be an issue. The problem that is stuck in my mind is why is Huntress trying so hard to defend this action when a simple "I don't know, it was probably random" would have been acceptable. Instead she brings up this whole "it's probably not even random" stuff to try and justify it. She seems to be trying to justify case #2 for no reason, which leads me to believe that she thinks it was case 2. The only reason for her to think it was case 2 instead of case 1 would be if TheDom had a reason to lie about his vote, and the only reason he would have lied about it would be if he were scum.

VOTE: Huntress

---

I said earlier that Eagle didn't seem to fit with Workdawg, which was due to Work's votes on Eagle but 555 and 563 are changing my mind on that. It looks like he thought it was safe to vote his buddy but has made excuses to get off the wagon now it's getting serious. Still not sure due to the Day one wagon but looking back at Work's posts on Eagle there that could have been distancing too.

If you look back at my post 509 and Eagles response in post 513, you'll see that I misread some of his posts, which was giving a big bump to my read on him.

Spoiler: Quoted for reference

Lynch me before we lynch soul, that's how certain I am in my town read of him.

I just doubt scum would get into a discussion like that over power roles. It seems like it only makes him look scummier. And I was town reading him before that and agree with his views. I've gone to say things and then seen them better said by soul. Very not interested in his lynch today.

I don't really like that first post, and that followup... Defending your partner with some WIFOM?

Huntress is number one.

Strong town are kahlan and soul, with Usted, although I agree with soul he seems a bit.. shady about the ordeal. Newbie is... nullish. Detached. As does workdawg, but I'd prefer a newbie lynch over work, I think/.

And that's because Huntress opened with vote on work, which I think is unlikely as scum.

What? These are consecutive posts. Huntress is number one, because of an action that is unlikely as scum? Are you replying to different things here or what, because that makes NO sense at all.

Ugh. No, silly. I'm saying it's unlikely you're scum with huntress because she opened with a vote on you. I'm not saying that makes her any more or less scummy, I'm saying it makes it more likely that youre scum together.

*facepalm*

I'm going to "climb fast" if you intentionally misread my posts, buddy.

Doh, sorry. That actually makes sense. I pointed out that they were consecutive but didn't actually read them as one paragraph. My bad.

I never unvoted before because he was, and still is, on my list of scum. However, as I've mentioned before, Soul is still there and Huntress is now even higher. Right now I'd put it at Huntress, Soul, Eagle, in that order. Eagle was slightly ahead based on my misunderstanding of his post, but since he clarified it, he dropped slightly below Soul again.

---

@Kahlan

- About the Eagle stuff... He does like to argue with you and it is curious that he didn't really react to you. I suspect the reason for that is because normally he reacts negatively towards you when you misunderstand things. Just throwing a vote on him isn't really giving him anything to get riled up about. I think that's a pretty sneaky move though, I like it.

About Huntress' slot, because Huntress replaced TheDom, we know that her role is the same as his was. She takes his place in the game completely, role and all. That means that any of his actions that can be read as scummy make that slot, and thus her, look scummy as well. The same goes for actions that make the slot look like town. You have to analyze both players and apply all the conclusions you draw to that slot. That is something that makes replacing into a game tricky for players, but thankfully people are willing to do it because it would be worse for everyone if no replacement was made.

So yes, TheDom's actions should definitely be considered when determining if the slot Huntress now occupies is town or scum.

[Workdawg]

HUNTRESS IS NOW AT L-1

[Workdawg]

ebwop: Of COURSE that would happen to be on a new page. FML.

Again,

Huntress is at L-1

[Workdawg]

@workdawg talk about hiding L-1s? you didn't even put it in your post. You need to let everyone know that huntress is at L-1 now.

[Workdawg]

...
You have taken those two simple facts and spun a whole theory around them.
At first I thought it was because you didn't understand that rvs votes aren't necessarily random. But you said you did so that can't have been the reason. So I can only conclude that all this "analysis" is just conjured up to back up your vote on me.

You're the one who spun up a bunch of wild theories to justify what was most likely just a random vote. I said in my previous post that it's no longer about what TheDom did, it's about how you are trying so hard to justify a potentially scummy action when there is a completely reasonable town answer. My mistake at the beginning of this discussion would have been caught right off the bat if you were town. Instead, you got scared that I pointed out scummy intentions in the vote and tried to justify them.

[Workdawg]

Well, I guess that pretty much confirms Usted as town. Unless someone is holding back being the doctor, which seems highly unlikely at this point.

Also, I assume everyone knows that LYLO, as Usted pointed out means that if we lynch town again today, we lose.

I'll have to go back and reread a little bit I guess.

[Workdawg]

That's actually a really interesting, and disappointing, observation. It would make vote count analysis a lot more tricky. I don't really subscribe to VCA necessarily, but I know some people do. I guess I haven't seen much of it in this game though.

Also, I was pretty busy with work yesterday, but I hope it'll be a slower day today so I can finish up my post. I've been prepping another wagon analysis like I did for Ness' wagon but it's not quite done yet.

[Workdawg]

Alright, so here we go...

Post 457 - EE votes (L-3), possibly a lurker?
Post 471 - newbie votes (L-2), reasoning in post 440, Partly PoE (giving Workdawg and Kahlan town reads and Usted's claim) "feels like she's coasting"
Post 474 - No vote, but soul has "healthy distrust" of Huntress do to quiteness
Post 489 -

Usted votes (L-1)

- because his vote on EE didn't spark any interest?
Post 492 -

newbie unvotes (L-2)

- no reason given
Post 499 - EE says "Huntress is number one" (scum read)
Post 508 - soul says he'd prefer a Huntress lynch because of her play "would be very wise if she were scum"
Post 510 - Workdawg expresses frustration over her slot still not really contributing much
Post 518/519 - Workdawg engages Huntress attempting to get content
Post 524 - newbie reiterates that soul and Huntress are her top scum picks
Post 539 -

soul votes (L-1)

, citing previous comments about her being on the top of his list and says its time to "vote or get off the pot"
Post 551 - newbie gives intent to hammer
Post 553 - Workdawg says "... large ping on scumdar for Huntress" after the "RVS voting shenanigans"
Post 557 -

Usted unvotes (L-2)

and posts intent to hammer Eagle at the same time. Says switching to Huntress was only to test to see who would unvote from her.
Post 568 - Workdawg expresses concern about Huntress again based on the "RVS voting shenanigans"
Post 574 -

Workdawg votes (L-1)

, due to new revelations in the "RVS voting shenanigans"
Post 587 - newbie states intent to hammer due to deadline
Post 589 - Eagle reaffirms scum read on Huntress
Post 590 -

newbie hammers

(Eagle, soul, Workdawg, newbie)

I really don't see anything particularly interesting about this wagon, unfortunately. EE starts it out and the rest of it us sort of mosey on to it for various reasons. Newbie hammered but she was already on the wagon early on and someone had to hammer at that point.

Looking at it objectively, I would say that my voting probably looks the most suspect since I got on the wagon near the end of the day. However, I actually developed a case against her and truly thought that she was scummy (not just due to a lack of content at that point), so I feel it was justified. Everyone else seems like they were on the wagon because of a lack of content. No one really responded (other than soul making a couple of comments here and there, and Eagle commenting right at the end) which is a little bit curious to me, but oh well.

[Workdawg]

That seems pretty reasonable. Would you like to pick the order?

[Workdawg]

I think that since you are the only known town you should call the shots here. IMO, you call out people in the order that you feel they are scum so that their answers can't be adjusted based on what everyone else says.

[Workdawg]

That kind of defeats the purpose of my suggestion, unless your scum reads happen to be in that order. But whatever floats your boat.

[Workdawg]

What the fuck is happening in here? I check in yesterday afternoon and things are on track for a logical discussion and scumhunt and now we are completely off the rails... wow.

I can't believe that Usted as actually town. He is not acting like it AT ALL, IMO. This isn't the first case of it either, just the most egregious. If there was ANY shred of proof he was lying I'd vote him straight away... this is ridiculous.

However, it does seem to have worked since this pretty much confirms Eagle is scum, IMO. The chances that everyone still alive checks in and scum don't organize a mislynch through daytalk is almost zero. I don't know that I agree with Usted that newbie is his partner because as both newbie and Eagle have said, no one is really posting anything so I hardly think they are both scum based on lurking. Also, I have no idea how this proves that I'm scum. Want to clarify that, soul?

[Workdawg]

Well, I guess it's settled.

VOTE: Eagle

[Workdawg]

Is this where I throw some WIFOM (same as you did, Usted, 429) on the fire and say that I'm a much better scum player and I clearly wouldn't have done that? lol

Also VOTE: soul because he must be the last scum.

[Workdawg]

That's interesting soul. "It's so rare that you know what's going on as town" and yet this seems to be your second game on the site; and the first ended in 2008. Looking to draw some sympathy here?

Then there's some nice WIFOM on there... "clearly I would have shot Workdawg because he's been lower on your scumdar". At least when I throw WIFOM out there I acknowledge it.

Lastly, let's appeal to emotion and compliment that RVS. I guess it's a fair point.

---

I'll try to get a case together soon.

[Workdawg]

Well, at least wait until I have some time to make a case and reply to soul's comment above. Too much work right now to post more than some quick thoughts.

[Workdawg]

Still fairly busy with work and haven't had a chance to properly review the whole game, but I wanted to respond to this...

...
The first time I really see any breakdown on Workdawg's part is during Usted's claim. It makes sense that I got some blame shifted to me for that, but pretty much everyone walked away calling Usted town. Workdawg wasnt about to keep voting for him, but he made it clear a few times that he'd still like to have been. (Looking back, I see Eagle tested those waters to see if anyone else would get the wagon going with him again.) The whole thing seemed decidedly out of character for Workdawg.
...

And you said yourself, a few times, that you weren't sure you believed Usted's claim. Further, yesterday when I said I didn't like the way Usted was playing as town, you agreed with me...

@Workdawg - Also: I won't argue with you about Usted's play. If I didn't have him as confirmed town I'd be voting him in an instant. But just can't think of any possible way that he could get away with lying about it, the real power role would have counter claimed.

So if this is your only scumtell on me, then it's just as much a tell for you.

---

Another thing I wanted to look at is the voting trends.
[spoiler="My vote analysis on Ness' wagon]

So, I went back over the wagon on Ness. Here's a summary of it.

Chronological order (bold on L-1 and unvotes from L-1).
- newbie (post 144) - Votes for Ness due to wagon hoping, quoting post 122 as "opportunistic".
- Workdawg (post 174 - Minor FOS based on wagon hoping as well.
-

soul (post 185) - Votes for Ness based on speculation of a EE/Ness scumteam. Speculation was based on suggesting their argument was staged to distance each other and setting up EE as an aggressive townie.

- newbie (post 225) - changes read on Ness to "leaning toward newbtown" and says she's not really comfortable with the wagon anymore.
- Workdawg (post 238) - Votes for Ness, citing things that appeared to be newb tells, however Kahlan pointed out that Ness claimed to have 5 games of experience, ruling out the newb factor.

First L-1 below

- EE (post 242) - Votes Ness and puts him at

L-1

. Cites Ness' apparent apathy for the game. (Further clarifies his stance in post 246
- newbie (post 244) -

Unvotes

to prevent an early lynch, also points out that Ness already claimed.
- newbie (post 313) - Puts Ness back at

L-1

when the game slows down.
- Workdawg (post 322) - Points out the Ness keeps promising content and not delivering. Pleads with him to post something useful so that we can get a better read on him.
- Huntress (post 335) - "Intends to vote Ness" citing a disconnect between the way he started the game and his reactions to being voted. Partially because of some connections Ness was establishing with others (accusing Ness of buddying/distancing?)
- Usted (post 336) - states intent to hammer, also claims he has said before that he thinks Ness is scummy.
- EE (post 341) -

Unvotes

"not ready for hammer now that {Ness} is here"
- EE (post 345) - States intent to revote in 24 hours if Ness doesn't answer questions.
- Kahlan (post 355) - Votes Ness to

L-1

. Has a long post about it, so I will only include the main points here: Excuses (essentially lack of posting content), Doesn't want to/know how to defend himself. Wagon hopping. "Faking being a newbie".
- Drixx (post 359) - states intent to hammer, citing short time left in the day.
- Usted (post 376) - reiterates intent to hammer
- EE (post 382) -

Stop, Hammer time!

In summary, literally everyone in the game expressed some amount of interest lynching Ness. Either voting for him or stating intent to hammer once he was at L-1.

Reading through the wagon, one thing in particular stood out to me, and that's Usted. His first mention in the list above, (post 336). In that post he claims to have said before that Ness is scummy. This has prompted me to read his ISO. In it, I've found some minor mentions of Ness. In posts 132, 138, and 181 he mentions a possible Drixx/Ness scumteam. However, in post 271 Usted states that the way Ness has been responding makes him (Usted) not really want to lynch Ness. Certainly a lot happens in 90 posts, so it's possible his read changes, no big deal here. Then post 336 rolls around and Usted is ready to hammer, citing his previous suspicions of Ness. I read Ness' ISO leading up to post 271 (where Usted states that he likes the way Ness has been responding) and between posts 271 and 336 (where Usted gives intent to hammer) and I don't really see where Usted would have changed opinions. There's only 2 posts in between from Ness. Those two posts are Ness' usual "i'll post content" and OMGUS. The only thing I can think of to justify this shift in opinion is that post 270 (the post immediately before Usted states that he likes the way Ness is responding) is a fairly lengthy post (for Ness) in response to a bunch of questions I raised. It's one of the most content filled posts Ness made, so maybe that left Usted feeling good at that moment?

It seems curious to me that Usted more or less came out of nowhere with intent to hammer Ness. However, I also think it'd be strange for him to join the wagon (i'm including his stated intent as being on the wagon) at this point if he is scum. He could easily have just more or less ignored the wagon and let the rest of us lynch Ness. Of course, maybe then he'd look like scum because he wasn't involved and it would appear that he was trying to avoid it. Obviously, this is a bunch of WIFOM as well.

One thing that I will state is that I find it pretty unlikely that both scum were on that wagon, considering literally everyone was willing to lynch Ness there would be no reason for both of them to be involved. That does conveniently imply that either Usted or Huntress is scum though.

pedit: This post took me a long time to write and I see others have posted in the mean time. I'll address that in a bit here.

[/spoiler]

Spoiler: My vote analysis on Huntress' wagon

Alright, so here we go...

Post 457 - EE votes (L-3), possibly a lurker?
Post 471 - newbie votes (L-2), reasoning in post 440, Partly PoE (giving Workdawg and Kahlan town reads and Usted's claim) "feels like she's coasting"
Post 474 - No vote, but soul has "healthy distrust" of Huntress do to quiteness
Post 489 -

Usted votes (L-1)

- because his vote on EE didn't spark any interest?
Post 492 -

newbie unvotes (L-2)

- no reason given
Post 499 - EE says "Huntress is number one" (scum read)
Post 508 - soul says he'd prefer a Huntress lynch because of her play "would be very wise if she were scum"
Post 510 - Workdawg expresses frustration over her slot still not really contributing much
Post 518/519 - Workdawg engages Huntress attempting to get content
Post 524 - newbie reiterates that soul and Huntress are her top scum picks
Post 539 -

soul votes (L-1)

, citing previous comments about her being on the top of his list and says its time to "vote or get off the pot"
Post 551 - newbie gives intent to hammer
Post 553 - Workdawg says "... large ping on scumdar for Huntress" after the "RVS voting shenanigans"
Post 557 -

Usted unvotes (L-2)

and posts intent to hammer Eagle at the same time. Says switching to Huntress was only to test to see who would unvote from her.
Post 568 - Workdawg expresses concern about Huntress again based on the "RVS voting shenanigans"
Post 574 -

Workdawg votes (L-1)

, due to new revelations in the "RVS voting shenanigans"
Post 587 - newbie states intent to hammer due to deadline
Post 589 - Eagle reaffirms scum read on Huntress
Post 590 -

newbie hammers

(Eagle, soul, Workdawg, newbie)

I really don't see anything particularly interesting about this wagon, unfortunately. EE starts it out and the rest of it us sort of mosey on to it for various reasons. Newbie hammered but she was already on the wagon early on and someone had to hammer at that point.

Looking at it objectively, I would say that my voting probably looks the most suspect since I got on the wagon near the end of the day. However, I actually developed a case against her and truly thought that she was scummy (not just due to a lack of content at that point), so I feel it was justified. Everyone else seems like they were on the wagon because of a lack of content. No one really responded (other than soul making a couple of comments here and there, and Eagle commenting right at the end) which is a little bit curious to me, but oh well.

I find this pretty interesting.
Soul votes for Ness based on speculation of a scumteam with Eagle. Then proceeds to just sit on the wagon until the lynch occurs. After voting/unvoting by others, soul was the "first" vote on the wagon. newbie was first, soul second, but later newbie unvoted. Interestingly, Drixx pointed out that soul's vote on Ness felt opportunistic to him.
On the Huntress wagon, Soul doesn't get on at the start, in fact seems to be almost avoiding it eventually putting Huntress at L-1 a second time because "it's time to vote or get off the pot". soul ends up "second on the wagon"... Is this another opportunistic vote? It was right after Kahlan put a second vote on Eagle. Could have been trying to divert attention from that...

[Workdawg]

Town, you're welcome.

I can't believe you think you did anything for town besides roll the dice and get lucky twice in a row... you were more scummy than I was. At least as far as anyone commented on.

My switch from Eagle to Huntress at the end of D2, and then Eagles flip scum should have been pretty damning. Also, accusing soul of being scummy for pushing Usted's claim when scum already knew the setup, was kind of ridiculous. There would have been no reason for scum to push it at all.

[Workdawg]

Also, fwiw. Eagle's comment about giving Kahlan a town read, and then voting for her was a pretty bad slip, IMO.

[Workdawg]

That last day you should have really been the only one scum hunting. Obviously I would be presenting crap and trying to make it look scummy. Soul would be looking at pretty much everything I did KNOWING I was scum and that would most likely lead to him pointing out things that aren't really scummy but trying to explain why they are. Soul's post was pretty good, though I don't think he made me look scummy at all. If it had dragged on, both of us would have just been muddying the water because he would have to be stretching further and further to find something that would stick to me. I thought about pointing that out to you because I was getting a bit apathetic towards the game, but since you told us you weren't going to I figured I'd have to try and push soul.