Newbie 1768: Party Mafia - Game over!

[GuiltyLion]

Time to deathtunnel this guy and his partner again ;p

not gonna lie I was absolutely dreading the possibility of playing scum against you again when I saw the playerlist

Is your scum game as good as your town game?

@kentofan @Bulbazoor

If I'm not mistaken, you'll be replaced if you don't confirm within the 72 hours.

why are you acting like a moderator?

VOTE: Agent Sparkles

[GuiltyLion]

I'm guessing that question is just for RVS purposes, but if you actually want it answered, I'm just reminding the inactive players so that they don't get kicked from the game. And for obvious reasons, it's helpful to have as many active players as possible.

But why do you think bulba/kento would need to see your post to remember that they have to confirm? If they're reading this thread, they would already know they need to confirm and participate, no?

I'm operating under the assumption that we should try to break down any read, whether town, scum, or null, and that if a read is good it'll stand up to scrutiny by others.

I want to talk about this. What do you mean by "good" read - a read that is accurate or a read that is justified? In my experience, scum like to make everyone's reads about logic and evidence, because those things are easier to twist or poke holes at. If a player happens to accurately (but perhaps illogically) townread a townie, there isn't a pro-town benefit to breaking down that read unless it is actively helping sort the player who gave the townread. Whereas it helps scum to jump in and weaken townreads, as it keeps the lynchpool wider.

Also, because scum already know who is town, when asked about their fake townreads they can usually explain them convincingly. Scumreads are harder to fake.

IMO the most effective townplay is scrutinizing and justifying scumreads, not townreads

[GuiltyLion]

I was hoping that this was like some other forums, where doing @player would alert them.

huh, I see. this actually feels genuine

UNVOTE:

on the other hand, this does not:

I voted for GuiltyLion hoping to receive some information from him or other players discussing him but I'm a little disappointed that there isn't a lot of debate going on about him. Also as soon as people started voting for him, he hasn't posted much. Which seems a little shifty to me, like he's lying low and letting it blow over. I mean, I don't know his personal life or playing style so I might be wrong.

I agree with everything bowdown said in 71, and I'd also like to point out that Agent Sparkles did attempt to discuss it:

I still stand by my vote since I have not received any new information about GuiltyLion and no other posts have convinced me about the scumminess of any other player.

Are you saying that GuiltyLion is the only scummy one, or that no one is scummy so far? It could be taken either way.

Missing this question isn't scummy in itself, but missing this question and then complaining that your vote did not generate discussion is scummy. I think a townie who thought I was a good vote and was genuinely looking for reactions to his vote would have noticed and responded to this question. Instead, EL's 68 feels like LAMIST and an excuse to scumread me for low activity or not responding to RVS votes on me. Also, the 'hasn't posted much' point is an exaggeration, as the game literally just started.

For the record, I generally work 9-5 PST, I sometimes check mafia during work when I have slow days, but otherwise I'll only be around in the evenings (and maybe occasionally quick morning posts if something stands out to me).

VOTE: EccentricLemon

P-EDIT: also, I was just about to post this when I saw 72 -

@EL

why did you unvote? Did bowdown change your opinion of me?

[GuiltyLion]

- GuiltyLion, I'd love to hear more thoughts about this game specifically other than "sparkles why are you acting like a mod?"

I have been mulling over whether I think Jae's 24 is sincere, as it's a bit of a curveball question to answer if you're scum. I know as scum I've bragged about my scumgame before (start here and read the subsequent discussion), because it projected a certain town-esque indignant attitude of "how dare I be [correctly] scumread, if I were scum you would think I was town", so the fact that they pointed out a shallow feature of their scumplay may indicate they're working with a town frame of mind. Regardless of their alignment in this particular game, it's probably a true self-assessment, so I'd keep it in mind later in the game (after a few game-Days) if you're town and you get the sense that they're faking emotions or forcing reads, and bring it up again.

I asked nancy that question about reads because I wanted to dig into why she was pressing Jae on his townreads, but felt a little rebuffed by 53 However, I do think her 'gut scumread' on toejam looks genuine, I don't think newbie scum would have the bravado to post something like 67 and refuse to try to explain the read. Light townlean there.

everyone else still pretty null. I like to let some conversations between other players breathe a bit because I find I generally make better reads from observing interactions rather than driving them. Whenever I replace into games, my reads are usually better than games where I'm posting from the getgo, and outside of RtR I have a bad habit of tunneling on town in D1. Newbie games I like to slow down and pace myself a bit more, partially because the games tend to get more involved in the "theory of mafia" anyway.

[GuiltyLion]

Sorry, that's my mistake that I didn't reply to that comment.
I meant that no one was scummy so far. I was interested in where that vote might take the discussion. It didn't reveal that much new info to me, so keeping my vote there wouldn't do much and

might have even hurt me down the road

.

What do you mean by this? Why did you say it?

I can vote and unvote at any time, so unvoting wasn't an issue if I was trying to prove I'm not trying to be accusatory.

Why not be accusatory?

[GuiltyLion]

I was talking about nancy and GuiltyLion

I'm so sorry, I misread that GL as an EL. My bad. Sorry I called you out on it.

I don't think this mistake is fake, so given that EL misread a tojam post, it is more likely that she also missed the Agent Sparkles question I pointed out, rather than strategically ignoring it. Combined with her other posting, I feel she is genuine. I agree with nancy's description of her as "town unable to give off towntells".

UNVOTE:

VOTE: bowdown
The Triangle vote reads to me like it was for show, given that:
a) bowdown gave himself a reason to go back to Lemons ("if your hunting sucks this vote is coming back")
b) Triangle hasn't posted since his vote, but bowdown already moved to tojam.

Further, I think he may have slipped knowledge of town!Lemons here:

Seeing who jumps and doesn't jump on the lemon wagon and their reasons for doing so could be illuminating. Extreme case is that two others quickly jump on Lemon with poor reasons - d2 we look strongly at them.

and I have some thoughts on his tojam case but I would like to let tojam respond to it first before jumping in

[GuiltyLion]

Jae's reaction seemed towny enough to me. As scum, he would've been consciously pointing out the flaws in his own playstyle, which could be risky in the long run. Also, could you elaborate on what LAMIST is?

LAMIST = "look at me, I'm so town!". It's used to describe an impression that someone is posting primarily so that others will townread them, usually implying that it is scum doing it.

[GuiltyLion]

Hey GL,

Do you think Eccentric Lemon is town?

What do you think of me?

Why you ignore my hello?

What did you think of my freudian slip?

1. yah
2. well you're not really being town, but I just mislynched you last time we played together and I feel like I scumread you every game so I'm not exactly ready to start barking up that tree yet
3. I wasn't there when you asked so I figured it was a stale question today. Didn't mean for you to feel like I was ignoring you, hello!
4. I don't really have any thoughts on it one way or the other, I could see it coming from either alignment. All it shows is you didn't proofread your post.

[GuiltyLion]

What do you mean by "for show"? I was on Lemon because that was my first decent-sized ping. I moved off Lemon to see what she was like without feeling like she has to be on the defensive. I'm unsure how I feel about lemon right now - I want to do some more in-depth reading of her latest post and I think there's some credence to nancy's idea that Lemon's just not putting out goodtown tells.

"for show" = without a real scumread or desire to lynch.

Have you done the in-depth reading? What do you currently think of Lemon?

Triangle vote was absolutely legit, but I moved off it for three reasons:

1. Two days have gone since Triangle even posted, so the pressure there is wasted
2. It didn't generate much discussion or content, which IMO is the most important thing we can get out of D1
3. Most importantly, tojam put out some seriously scummy posts and I have a decently strong scumread there - much stronger than either of the initial Lemon/Triangle reads.

I guess my problem with 1 is why was pressure on Triangle better than pressure on Lemon at the point in the game at which you unvoted?

on 3, I'm not sold on tojam's posts being "seriously scummy", my thought on your case below

What do you think of the questions Jae has asked so far (e.g. 88, 102)? Do you feel like they're from a protown perspective?

oops I forgot to respond to 88 actually.

response to 88: wasn't bothered by it
thoughts on 88: I could see it either way, if town!Jae is scumreading nancy then it makes sense to poke at me about it like that, but if scum!Jae were fishing for mislynch votes then it could serve that purpose as well. It's something to revisit on a nancy flip, and also slightly more informative now that Jae also has nancy as their top townread.

so

@Jae

- at what point did you decide nancy was a top townread?

as for 102, I've asked questions like that before when I thought newbies were scumreading people for bad reasons and I wanted to get a better grip on their reasoning. I'd say it's a pro-town question.

and I have some thoughts on his tojam case but I would like to let tojam respond to it first before jumping in

Would love to hear them now that tojam has responded.

so the thing is your entire case is built off of tojam being hypocritical in scumreading nancy for vote parking on a null, while doing the same thing himself.
Why do you think hypocrisy is indicative of scum alignment, especially in this particular case? Your 124 reads to me like "here are facts about things that happened, so tojam is a good vote", but I feel I'm missing the causality reasoning as to why voting nancy for doing something that he is guilty of himself makes tojam scum.

[GuiltyLion]

hey guys I'm gonna prodge for right now, it looks like there's a lot of content I need to digest so a post during lunch at work won't suffice

I should be able to post with substance tonight in about 10-11 hours, possibly earlier

[GuiltyLion]

okay, so I went through and reread and I don't want to lynch {tojam, nancy, Lemon, Jae} today.

I most want to do this
VOTE: Revan

reasons forthcoming

[GuiltyLion]

Bow down why are are you so inclined to vote Lemon, if Titus didn't even present a case that could?

To see what happens and try to sort out my scumreads.

That doesn't make any sense. If you wanted to see what would happen, you would've voted Lemon before Titus asked you to.

This sequence looks like Revan is stretching for reasons to interact/scumread bowdown. I don't like the subtle embellishment phrasing in 202 of "so inclined" to vote, like bowdown's vote was simply a vote, and it's not as if bowdown's scumread on Lemon wasn't established beforehand. One of my favorite tells is exaggeration/embellishment in pushing something, scum feel compelled to make their reads/cases sound more genuine and so they tend to add a subtle layer of aggressiveness when they comment that townies don't usually exhibit. Further, I think 203 is a sensible answer to Revan's question, I can't really grok Revan's comment in 204. bowdown sheeping Titus doesn't preclude things from happening, I feel if Revan was honestly engaging with bowdown's response then he would have considered that.

I like what bowdown pointed out in 211 as well.

But the big kicker is here:

I never scumread Titus, I voted her to get a reaction because I was having a tough time discerning her alignment.

This statement isn't congruent with Revan's ISO. Revan entered the game giving some townreads and then calls Titus "obviously scum" in 156. Even if this was intentionally meant to be hyperbole, if Revan were town the Titus scumread behind the post would still be genuine. However in 269 he's now claiming that he "never" scumread Titus - I think a townie might acknowledge that their read was weaker than they presented, but I don't think a townie would dismiss it entirely. It reads more like scum!Revan is nervous about what Jae pointed out in 243 and is trying to wave away the inconsistency between their "scumread" in Titus and their switch to Jae.

p-edit: maybe if you had waited for my forthcoming post it wouldn't be "wtf" to you? Why did you make that comment before I had explained?

[GuiltyLion]

What do you think of the questions Jae has asked so far (e.g. 88, 102)? Do you feel like they're from a protown perspective?

oops I forgot to respond to 88 actually.

response to 88: wasn't bothered by it
thoughts on 88: I could see it either way, if town!Jae is scumreading nancy then it makes sense to poke at me about it like that, but if scum!Jae were fishing for mislynch votes then it could serve that purpose as well. It's something to revisit on a nancy flip, and also slightly more informative now that Jae also has nancy as their top townread.

I think GL followed to the wrong question there. I think this was his answer to me for 87. I'd like him to look at 88 again and answer again in that case.

You're right here, I was looking at post 87. I think bowdown's point is more clear when looking at 88, those read to me like IC questions rather than town game-solving questions. I wouldn't (and didn't ) give you any towncred for 88

[GuiltyLion]

Her "push" if you can call it that, fades when "the cool kids" unvote. She makes a big deal about how she's not accusing anyone.

also Titus if you're going to make this point, I'd like you to directly address EL's response to me in 89 and Agent Sparkles in 140. Those posts read genuine to me.

[GuiltyLion]

But we do need to decide on a lynch in the next 48 hours before we rush a mislynch.

this is hard to do without Agent Sparkles voting and with a number of legacy/vanity solo votes (EL on tojam, tojam on nancy). At this point in time I think the onus is on you three to make consolidation happen. Normally I'd include Jae in this group too but I trust them to start voting/pushing a lynch before we get too close to deadline. At the very least you can talk about players you're not willing to lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

also Titus if you're going to make this point, I'd like you to directly address EL's response to me in

89

82 and Agent Sparkles in 140. Those posts read genuine to me.

sorry, this should have been 82, not 89

mixing up post numbers left and right

[GuiltyLion]

@GL how would my Titus scumread still be genuine? That makes no sense. I figured the best way to get a reaction is to call them out as "obviously scum" to get them panicked that they got caught so easily.

I don't buy this. I don't believe that you would be town with no read on Titus who makes that first post calling Titus "obviously scum". The fact that you're trying to walkback the declared scumread looks fake, like you wanted to come out swinging for towncred and then felt the need to invent a reason afterwards to explain why you were aggressive initially and then backing off afterwards.

Town doing a reaction gambit as you're describing would still have a legitimate scumread on Titus driving their post, but you posted 269 as if you never had a read to begin with. But even in the last sentence here you're now suggesting that you had some level of suspicion on Titus, but that's not what you said in 269.

[GuiltyLion]

Hey GL, question for you that's bugging me: You voted and made a case on me, and then now follow me onto Regan. It feels weird, especially given that:

- You already followed me once onto Lemon

- Of the three people who have been posting the most (Jae, Nancy, and myself) I am the only one with a townread on you.

I don't know if it's a thing or not, but it's really bugging me.

Following you onto Lemon was super early into D1. I didn't have any sort of read on you then. I found it suspicious how you hopped off of Lemon - while giving yourself room to come back - and went to a non-player, and then jumped on tojam for reasons I didn't think were very good, and wanted to push you on that.

also I generally don't have a problem following someone else onto a wagon on D1, the game will only provide more information and continue to narrow possible worlds as we get flips and reduce the number of players. D1 play is mostly poking people to get reactions that may be useful later, and then coalescing onto a lynch outside of your townreads.

[GuiltyLion]

No. EL seems awfully obsessed with talking about you and busses there.

also, Titus, are you seriously implying that EL and I are partners because EL said she didn't want to "throw me under the bus"? A scum!EL partnered with scum!GL would never slip that way, she used a word without knowing the context/meaning on MafiaScum. Pushing that as an associative is bs of the foulest degree.

[GuiltyLion]

Post coming soon

I'm waiting for this. You haven't posted anything of substance in nearly a week.

[GuiltyLion]

regardless of his alignment, I think Revan has experience elsewhere, I don't think a pure mafia newbie would open in the game the way he did. and I see scum pull the "you'll know I'm town when he flips red" logic all the time

[GuiltyLion]

If you need any convincing, just look at GL's vote on me.

Terrible logic.

Titus how does this read like a town post to you?

[GuiltyLion]

and respond to my question about the associative you're trying to draw between me and EL, please. At the very least - I want you to reaffirm or deny that you are arguing that EL scumslipped by saying she didn't want to "bus" me.

[GuiltyLion]

and respond to my question about the associative you're trying to draw between me and EL, please. At the very least - I want you to reaffirm or deny that you are arguing that EL scumslipped by saying she didn't want to "bus" me.

Indicator, not slip.

???

this is a bullshit dodge. Either it's indicative and a slip, or it isn't. You can't have it both ways

[GuiltyLion]

and respond to my question about the associative you're trying to draw between me and EL, please. At the very least - I want you to reaffirm or deny that you are arguing that EL scumslipped by saying she didn't want to "bus" me.

Indicator, not slip.

???

this is a bullshit dodge. Either it's indicative and a slip, or it isn't. You can't have it both ways

No. An indicator is more likely than not to come from scum. A scumslip MUST come from scum

So what you're saying, paraphrased, is: "It's more likely than not that EL and GL are scumbuddies because EL said she didn't want to throw GL under the bus"? Am I parsing that right?

Now can you tell me why that's not an extremely contrived, nitpicky reach of an argument? An argument which is easily defeated by the alternate explanation which I already presented in 350:

she used a word without knowing the context/meaning on MafiaScum

You're assuming:
a) EL has knowledge of what it means to "bus" someone, despite this being her first game on mafiascum
b) EL and I are partners and both scum
c) EL accidentally slipped point b) by using the terminology "bus" in the context of a) in post 82.

This is a scumcase. It's fake, illogical reasoning. They're all huge assumptions independently, and being used together in a way that no townie would push with genuine intentions. If we're flash wagoning anyone today, it's Titus.

[GuiltyLion]

GL has contributed pretty much nothing all day,

I think you need to reread my ISO. Just because I don't post as much does not mean there is no substance to my posts.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm literally scumhunting in the two posts above yours

You can eat rope if you're going to post one line misreps

[GuiltyLion]

sorry if I'm being aggressive but it really ticks me off when players casually imply that I'm not doing anything

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, given that nancy is not the jailkeeper, I think that's a slip

intent to hammer nancy

I'm not sure how much time we really need left for today but I'll do it in either 2-3 hours before I go to bed or ~10ish or so hours when I wake up. So everyone get your last words in now if you got em

[GuiltyLion]

This is a scumcase. It's fake, illogical reasoning. They're all huge assumptions independently, and being used together in a way that no townie would push with genuine intentions. If we're flash wagoning anyone today, it's Titus.

Guilty... True or false:

Titus makes assumptions and tunnels based off said assumptions as either alignment.

on this, pushing a contrived case is something I find universally scummy regardless of who the player is. Someone advocating for what looks to be a faked scumread is just about the best scumtell there is - almost by definition, as it is what separates town and scum. Maybe Titus behaves this way as town, but if she's town here I'm not seeing any indicators of it yet.

And I've definitely seen her tunnel as scum for nitpicky semantic bs, in Town of Helen she got into a long drawn out battle with (town)SilverWolf over SW calling her "scum" in a past game when she(Titus) was actually a "Serial Killer" in that game, and the whole argument was reachy and contrived (I linked here to the dual ISO). This thing about EL "bussing" me is pinging me the same way, like she saw some awkward phrasing she could riff on and then coasted on that for today, when the actual argument underneath it is incredibly weak.

[GuiltyLion]

here to hammer before bed as promised! I don't want to trust someone else to do it or trust myself to wake up early enough (since I have the day off tomorrow)

VOTE: nancy

===[ ]

[GuiltyLion]

also, if this flips red and I die, I'd look into Agent Sparkles on D2:

Which results in a lynching priority for me of: GL, Titus, EL,

Agent Sparkles

, bowdown, revan

Anyway, here's the post you've all been expecting. I'm going to focus my scumreads or semi-scumreads for now. Eccentric is someone I would keep an eye on. I think we've already established that some of her posts could be newbie fumbles, but

with the exception of nancy's 180 (and even that was playing both sides of the argument)

, most of the TR arguments for her (mainly to revan and jae) haven't done much to persuade that these posts are a sign that she's town. Though this is oversimplifying a bit, there seems to be an argument of "she's probably acting like paranoid scum because she's newbtown" when I've mostly been getting more general newbie vibes for the same reasons, and occasionally slightly scummy ones (like the sudden paranoia early on, and the fact that her vote is still on tojam even though no one has challenged his claim). This read is probably the weakest of the three, so I would keep her alive as a future lynch target.

Titus also makes me feel uneasy. Say what you want about not worrying about yourself as a townie, but when Titus is being suspected she seems to dismiss it altogether (most notably when Revan pushed on her). As a townie, you should at least want to address people's problems when they prompt you to, for the sake of helping the game move forward. Ignoring people altogether is detrimental to town and could be a way of avoiding the issue or an excuse to use the "town playstyle" argument. To a lesser degree, I also don't like how focused she's been on tunneling lemon since page 11, with how little her posts have given besides that.

And then Revan. His reasoning seems pretty shallow and at times irrational. Just like I questioned tojam because his first townread was based on "furthering discussion," Revan claims a similar read on me in 154. His case on Jae is very flawed, acting sure that Jae's comment on being scum in two "completed games" is them slipping, which is really a stretch. As a normal statement, what Jae said made perfect sense, but as a slip, it's a really obvious goof-up that even new players shoud notice before sending, much less an IC. Later, he accuses them of using basic, surface-level thinking, which is exactly what he'd been doing most of the time.

My vote will likely go to one of these three. I'll elaborate on my other current reads as well, but it's super late here, so I'll give you a list for now:

Tojam: Essentially ConfTown
JaeReed- Leaning Town
GuiltyLion- Nulltown
Bowdown- Possibly nulltown, will have to reread him a bit more

Nancy- Neutral

newbie scum like to avoid committing to a firm read on eachother, and these two readslists posts were made when Nancy didn't appear to be a viable lynch option. I think Jae mentioned seeing a possible associatives between them as well. A red flip would probably clear Titus and pretty much all of the flashwagon, I don't think scum!Titus would make these vocal townread posts for a doomed partner and Nancy has some posts to Titus that read more like budding than S-S.

[GuiltyLion]

Not voting Nancy.

Taking note of how easy it is to derail EL without a claim.

Did you miss the scumslip?

No. There was not one.

Did you miss EL's tonal indicators?

I'd bet my game life on Nancy being town ftr.

I don't believe that Titus is town who was just

really

confident in Nancy being town. The amount of overconfidence in town!Nancy in these posts, the continued tunnel on EL, and her flat out ignoring what absolutely looked like a slip, fits more like the play of scum whiteknighting and keeping their hands clean from a mislynch.

Also, in 503, Titus comments on "how easy it is to derail EL". But she's also suggested multiple times that I am scum with EL. I didn't lead the change to Nancy, nor was I wagoning EL prior. So it doesn't make sense that she would suggest scum!motivation to Jae/Revan, who were the primary reasons the wagon switched over yesterday. She's not thinking through her reads organically, she's sticking to a narrative and pretending to scumhunt.

VOTE: Titus

[GuiltyLion]

and there's also still the whole thing about how Titus is pushing GL+EL on the basis of EL's use of the word "bus", which I've already pointed out is absurd. Titus' response to my 455 was scummy as well, instead of arguing with me she gets snarky and dismissive. That's not how a townie who believes in the legitimacy of their case would react.

[GuiltyLion]

Titus, was Jae clearly jailkeeper yesterday after the twilight posts w/Nancy?

Or GL, now that you're here.

I think once nancy revealed that she was not a PR, it became obvious from Jae's jump onto her that he was jailkeeper. If Jae were VT, he may have not pushed so aggressively on the "slip" since it could have also technically been a JK-slip. Nancy also basically pointed this out herself in 506, which is kinda annoying as well - I thought she was scum rolefishing Jae at the time, it made no sense for town to post that.

[GuiltyLion]

You on the other hand are trying to paint everything I do as scummy. That's the narrative sell.

Earlier this game you said I was avoiding you, now you say I'm "painting everything you do as scummy". Which is it?

what I'm doing is pointing out that your "indicator" that EL and I are partners is a load of bs, and you've never acknowledged or responded to that point with any substance.

I did not see a slip. I still do not. You, being a large veteran, know most so called slips are not actually slips.

If most slips are not actually slips, then why did you argue that EL slipped that she didn't want to "bus" me?

and furthermore, as far as "not slips" go, nancy's was pretty bad. She assumed that there was no tracker. In hindsight it was a mistake, but without knowing her alignment it pretty clearly looked like the mindset of a mafia member who already knows we're in column A. We didn't just flashwagon her for nothing, and I can't wrap my head around how you would be so sure in her being town if you didn't already know her alignment.

[GuiltyLion]

Lemon, if Titus' argument is invalid, why aren't you voting for her.

quote for truth, let's get more votes on Titus please

[GuiltyLion]

Tojam, the technically correct answer is that I wouldn't vote early based on pressure.

what does this mean?

when you don't vote you are hiding information from us

[GuiltyLion]

like, is a whole day's worth of gameplay not enough for you to feel strongly enough to vote yet?

[GuiltyLion]

It's honestly baffling that Titus could think any of the quotes she posted in 684 constitute a case. There's no meat there whatsoever, and the few actual claims that she has made (EL saying she didn't want to throw me under the "bus" indicates that we're partners, I "derailed" EL's wagon yesterDay) I've already argued against in detail. I've seen town!Titus push me hard for much better reasons when I was scum in College Mafia. This is not Titus being genuine.

[GuiltyLion]

1) I said I wouldn't decide to do it based on outside pressure. I'll vote when I think it's the right time to vote, not when the BP is asking me to.

2) A bolded VOTE: Player gives you no information. I've made it clear who I suspect of being scum.

1) When is the right time to vote, and why isn't it now?

2) is actually completely incorrect. Not only does your vote create direct and immediate pressure (because the person is one vote closer to being lynched), it also creates indirect pressure on all other players to respond to it. If someone is at L-1, everyone in the game better be weighing in on the lynch one way or the other, because a hammer could happen soon. Townies want to see their scumreads lynched and their townreads

not

lynched, so wagoning various players gives townies more opportunities to towntell and pushes scum into more opportunities to give themselves away.

when you have a bunch of people not voting and a few half-assed wagons, the game stagnates. You need to vote, and it's unclear to me why you're refusing to do so.

[GuiltyLion]

also, more simply, a lot of times players use the VCs to refresh themselves on the momentum of the game and where people's suspicions stood at different snapshots in time. When you're not voting your scumread, you are in fact literally hiding this information from players who go back through the VCs, requiring everyone to do more thorough rereads of your posts and their context in the game.

while it is best for everyone in practice to do this and reread the game periodically, a lot of players won't make the time/effort to do so, so you're hiding information in that sense as well.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm

obviously

treating an un-CC'd PR claim as town. And I'm not treating AS as town. Titus is just shotgunning desperate accusations now.

[GuiltyLion]

The vote changed to nancy fast because GL shaded Nancy and scum quick hammerred her. There was nothing remotely close to a slip but you still shade the dead and GL should know better.

holy

shit

this is an ENORMOUS misrep. Like a complete denial of reality and projection of a completely different narrative. Titus is espousing "alternative facts", to borrow a popular phrase these days. This 100% comes from scum, there's no possible universe in which town!Titus can genuinely believe this. The goal here is to distort reality as much as possible.

Let's review:

Here's vote count 1.10:

Votecount 1.10

EccentricLemon (4) - Titus, Revan, tojam2, bowdown
Revan (2) - GuiltyLion, Agent Sparkles
GuiltyLion (1) - nancy

Not voting (2) - EccentricLemon, JaeReed

At this point in time, no one had voted nancy yet. EL was the leading wagon with Titus leading the charge. But shortly before this VC, nancy had posted this:

I don't think [GL's] claim is particularly relevant at this point. If he's the real jailer (1/7) then we're fucked, but otherwise it's irrelevant. If he's mafia, he'll almost certainly claim jailer to try to and bait a cc. I doubt the real jailer would out at this point, preferring to just hammer or wait for someone else to hammer if they're already on the wagon. He could also claim vanilla, but this is unlikely because it doesn't do anything for his chances of survival and doesn't stand to give his partner anything to work with. In other words, real jailer shouldn't out/cc D1, so a jailer claim should be ignored. No matter who we lynch we're running a 1/7 chance of being wrong and lynching the real jailer. I like those odds.

^this is what looked to be a slip. Nancy made multiple assumptions of a jailer in the setup, no mention of a tracker - which would be equally possible from a VT perspective, given the BP claim. The only ones who would know at this point whether a JK existed in the game or not were JaeReed (confirmed JK), and the mafia. So from JaeReed's POV, this looks very much like a scumslip. bowdown and Jae call it out immediately:

Or tracker?

Slip in Nancy's 429? Not running her up today but need to make sure we talk about this tomorrow.

Yup. Would vastly prefer to lynch her off that alone. It shows knowledge of there being a roleblocker in the setup. The only people who would know for sure the setup are scum and the jailkeeper, and scum would be more likely to be fixated on jailkeeper to the point where they forget main thread knowledge isn't in line with that. The jailkeeper would be doing everything in their power to not slip knowledge of the setup because scum could find them and nightkill them in that situation.

Had another look and I can't remember why I had early in my notes a nancy/Agent team but it might not be Agent as her partner. I wasn't looking at her pairings as closely all game because I was townreading her.

I mean, this is a case that's strongest if we get a jailkeeper flip and rendered completely moot with a tracker flip so idunno for sure yet, but I'm pretty sure I just witnessed an actual slip, which is usually really rare and things people push on as slips generally comes to semantics but I don't think that's what this was.

At which point they swap their votes, along with Revan in 482, which leads us here:

Votecount 1.11

nancy (3) - JaeReed, Revan, bowdown
Revan (3) - GuiltyLion, Agent Sparkles, EccentricLemon
EccentricLemon (2) - Titus, tojam2
GuiltyLion (1) - nancy

But look at what Titus just said.

"GL shaded nancy"

. I'm sorry, but no. That simply never happened. I was townreading nancy for the vast majority of D1, and when I saw her first post I actually figured it was a JK-slip. It was only confirmed that she was not the JK by Jae's push on her and her admitting it herself in 506. If you read through my ISO, I NEVER pushed or shaded nancy, ESPECIALLY NOT during the critical period at which the wagon switched. You can see even in 456 it's pretty clear I'm townreading her. when I came back to the game and read through the latest developments between my 459 and 528, and saw that nancy stated she was not the JKer in 506, nancy was already at L-1 with half a day or so until deadline, giving me basically no choice other than to hammer (which I was happy to do regardless).

Titus is presenting a version of reality that simply does not exist. She's bullshitting through and through.

she is scum

.

[GuiltyLion]

okay, so I went through and reread and I don't want to lynch {tojam, nancy, Lemon, Jae} today.

and here's a post confirming that I had a townread on nancy in mid/late D1. You can start at this post in my ISO and read through the rest (or even just ctrl+F "nancy"), I literally do not talk about nancy or to even TO nancy (other than 456) again until I stated intent to hammer with a few hours left in the day. The "shade" that Titus just referred to literally never happened.

There's no way that a townie honestly following the events of the game would get the story wrong like this.

[GuiltyLion]

can someone just hammer this please

[GuiltyLion]

GL, I would still like to hear your response on Titus' post.

what, the one where she just quoted my ISO where none of the posts had any kind of shade at nancy without any kind of explanation whatsoever? The one where she called my hammer "opportunistic" despite the fact there was no time left in the day? Frankly I don't even know how to respond to it, I assumed her lack of apparent thought or effort would speak for itself. Titus can't show where I "shaded" nancy, because it never happened and she got caught in a lie.

[GuiltyLion]

case on GL is based on forced interactions with Titus especially today and some overall behavior I can go more in depth on if requested from yesterday.

how are my interactions "forced"? What does that mean?

@GL - would you be fine with a Revan lynch today?

not really. I don't see any reason not to lynch Titus.

[GuiltyLion]

like, take your time and create discussion if you want, but I'm not interested in moving my vote at all. Titus is scum.

[GuiltyLion]

1. misrepresenting Titus's argument by repeatedly claiming it's only based on post 82 and in general (ex. post 661), 2. overreacting like in post 722.

1. Sorry, am I misrepresenting it? Can you show me what other arguments she has made?

2. I'm not overreacting at all. Titus scumtold. She completely lied about the narrative of events that happened in this game, and I have

never

seen that come from town. It's infuriating that anyone is letting it slide. She's accusing me of things that never happened and refusing to acknowledge her mistake - town do not do that.

I missed the Lemon question though, will respond

[GuiltyLion]

Why exactly are you so focused on not getting me lynched? At times, it definitely seems like you know more than what's been given to you. Defending me would be quite an advantage for you assuming you are scum and I am town:
1. It would give you towncred to back a town.
2. It would clear allegations that you are scum because since everyone's been mostly looking at you in the context of my scumpartner. If I flip green, that's to your advantage.
I'm not 100% convinced that you're scum, but it seems logical to me that you definitely could be.
So I'm asking you to convince me that you have a reason for defending me that isn't scummy.

I don't really agree I'm "so focused" on not getting you lynched. I pushed you early cause I thought you sounded scummy, then your responses to me felt genuine and transparent so I dropped it.

Titus is the one pushing this narrative of "GL derailed the Lemon wagon!". Which, again, I already covered simply did not happen. You were probably going to get lynched D1 if it weren't for Jae yanking the wagon over to nancy.

I don't think I did anything other than say that I townread you and looked elsewhere. I generally try not to push what look like mislynches, it's against my wincon.

[GuiltyLion]

also, I'd like everyone to look at these two posts again:

Also, in 503, Titus comments on "how easy it is to derail EL". But she's also suggested multiple times that I am scum with EL. I didn't lead the change to Nancy, nor was I wagoning EL prior. So it doesn't make sense that she would suggest scum!motivation to Jae/Revan, who were the primary reasons the wagon switched over yesterday. She's not thinking through her reads organically, she's sticking to a narrative and pretending to scumhunt.

I am at EL/GL GL/Revan or EL/Revan,

yet GL is correct that town essentially became unhinged at EoD yesterday

.

here, Titus is even

acknowledging

that I am right, that the EL wagon was "derailed" by Jae and Revan. She straight up admitted as such. But has she changed her reads or sought to investigate this? No, she hasn't, and when she was pressed she defaulted

back

to a lie about how I was the one who "shaded nancy".

[GuiltyLion]

2. Debatable. Either way I feel town would respond by further questioning Titus, not a giant post containing not very good arguments to the contrary.

I'm sorry, "not very good"? What part of it do you not understand?

1. Titus accuses me of "shading nancy" as the reason the wagon moved from EL -> nancy at the end of D1.
2. I point out two things: a) I never "shaded nancy" and b) the wagon derailed explicitly due to a plausible scumslip

Do you disagree with #2, or find #1 to be an accurate description of events? What part of this am I missing here? I don't see how this argument isn't anything but crystal clear.

[GuiltyLion]

You tricked them. You tricked Nancy into believing she slipped when she hadn't. That lynch was terrible.

Show us the post where I "tricked" Jae/Revan/bowdown, which caused them to move their votes. Show. us. the. post. Quote it, directly from my ISO, and show where I cast the "shade", where I "tricked" these players.

I'll be waiting. Again, I NEVER POSTED during the time when the wagon completely flipped. I posted when Nancy was at L-0, and then came back to her at L-1.

[GuiltyLion]

Or tracker?

Slip in Nancy's 429? Not running her up today but need to make sure we talk about this tomorrow.

Yup. Would vastly prefer to lynch her off that alone. It shows knowledge of there being a roleblocker in the setup. The only people who would know for sure the setup are scum and the jailkeeper, and scum would be more likely to be fixated on jailkeeper to the point where they forget main thread knowledge isn't in line with that. The jailkeeper would be doing everything in their power to not slip knowledge of the setup because scum could find them and nightkill them in that situation.

Had another look and I can't remember why I had early in my notes a nancy/Agent team but it might not be Agent as her partner. I wasn't looking at her pairings as closely all game because I was townreading her.

I mean, this is a case that's strongest if we get a jailkeeper flip and rendered completely moot with a tracker flip so idunno for sure yet, but I'm pretty sure I just witnessed an actual slip, which is usually really rare and things people push on as slips generally comes to semantics but I don't think that's what this was.

3 more votes on nancy, please.

@Titus, GuiltyLion, tojam2, EccentricLemon, bowdown

EL especially, you should vote nancy to put her at L-2 and make her into a proper counter to you if you're town.

@GL vote nancy please when you get back.

like, the only plausible explanation I can possibly come up with for this massive lie is if you thought these posts came from me instead JaeReed, or something.

[GuiltyLion]

can someone just hammer this please

[GuiltyLion]

GL - what is your opinion on the case on Revan?

which case specifically? bowdown's, Agent Sparkles', or the general abstract "case" of a summation of everyone's comments on his play?

[GuiltyLion]

@GL - the general abstract case. I just haven't seen many references to Revan in your posts and wanted to know what you thought of the discussion.

I do have a scumread on Revan, but it is tremendously outweighed by my scumread on Titus. I still find his walkback of "Titus is scum" to "I had no read on Titus and was just testing her!" to be hard to believe. I've also been waiting to see him vote today but he's been avoiding making a commitment all Day - this is scummy for the same reasons I pushed Sparkles on it as well.

Also, I find it scummy that bowdown was in his townblock but now he's casting shade on you as soon as you call him out. That's an act of self-preservation, not of working with townreads to direct their attention onto your scumreads.

I'll move to Revan if the Titus lynch isn't possible and he continues to avoid committing to any firm stances. We're kind of in an impasse right now, Revan absolutely needs to vote or else someone else needs to budge off of one of their wagons.

[GuiltyLion]

revisiting Revan's ISO reads like a Titus partner trying to surf on the tides of town opinion and hoping not to commit to scumreading and pushing her lynch. It's probably just Titus-Revan

[GuiltyLion]

ugh

I need to reread, and I'll have time to do that tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

Current opinion is that Revan might actually be town

In the meantime, I'd like you to walk me through this

[GuiltyLion]

okay, rereading D1 gave me the clarity that I needed. Revan is scum. I got so wrapped up in Titus' push on me that I lost sight of how fake his reads are.

GL why do you think it is more likely that I had a scumread on Titus than not having a read?

This is the key right here. I don't think Revan had a scumread on Titus, I think Revan is scum who was hoping to justify a Titus vote and then changed it to a "reaction test" when he got called out on dropping his push. Revan has continually tried to set this narrative that he never had a scumread on Titus, that he had no read.

But look at why he is making this argument:

Titus is obviously scum. Insincere questioning, and posts seem to be coming from someone that has the motivation to distract town.

VOTE: Titus

Here is where Revan enters the game with the "scumread" on Titus. It's a loaded, aggressive push, one that is certainly designed to get a reaction from Titus.

He makes a few more pokes at Titus:

I say we lynch Titus.

Titus is being pretty uncooperative, and hard to read.

Why don't you defend yourself?

Titus what makes Lemons's speech patterns funny? Are these patterns indicative of scum?

These types of posts are absolutely designed to get a reaction out of Titus. I think Revan wanted her to flail so that he could justify and continue his push on her. Unfortunately, he got stonewalled.

Here's the key point though: a townie who legitimately did not have a read on Titus would expect a follow up. A townie with a nullread on Titus would want this read to resolve. Revan never has a moment where it becomes clear why his read on Titus flips from "null" to "town", and it definitely does not come from any interaction with her.

So when Revan switches off of her, voting JaeReed in 210, and JaeReed calls out this disconnect:

Within the span of 22 posts you went from a decentish case on Titus to questioning bowdown on listening to Titus (your stated scumread), to voting me without getting my answer on why I was scumreading tojam, for reasons that aren't even related to my tojam vote. It looks like you just wanted a reason to vote me. Especially given the justification of "slip".

What I see here is:
To me: Explain your vote. (decent demand of "back it up")
To bowdown: Explain why you followed Titus. (implies you think he could be partnered with Titus or scum sheeping Titus since she told him to do it)
To Titus: Explain why EL's speech patterns are worth a vote.
*votes Jae*

There's a disconnect there.

Revan gives this explanation:

I never scumread Titus, I voted her to get a reaction because I was having a tough time discerning her alignment

. Unfortunately, it didn't work out for two reasons.

a) Jae defended her before she defended herself, which is odd. This is where I am getting the vibe that Jae is protecting Titus.

b) Titus never defended herself.

This is a lie. If town!Revan legitimately did not have a read on Titus, why does he drop it suddenly, and never pursue her again? I can't quote it all, but everyone should read his ISO after this post - the only real substantive comment he makes on Titus again is this one:

I guess Titus's no response is a bit of a towntell, then? I would think scum are more focused on self-preservation and would defend themselves.

and then he shelves her as a "townlean" and

doesn't meaningfully talk to or comment on her again, even when she was the primary focus of D2

. That's not how a town with an uncertain read would play it. That's scum keeping their hands clean and coasting. Ask yourself -

if you were town and weren't sure of Titus' alignment, would you play D2 the way Revan played D2?

Also, scum often have a hard time voting/commenting on mislynches that are about to go through. These end-of-D2 posts from Revan give me the sense that he knows Titus will flip town. And they're both setting up an EL lynch on D3:

I'm having a really tough time reading Titus. I would only hammer if it was near DL. Town flip, I wild lynch EL D3.

VOTE: EL

I think this has a higher chance of being scum than Titus

I'm not sure who the second scum is between Sparkles/Sobolev. I don't think it's an EL-Revan team because of how Revan and EL voted eachother late in D1, ensuring that they were two of the most likely lynch candidates. That's far more likely to be 1S and 1T rather than both on Scum.

VOTE: Revan

[GuiltyLion]

tojam, I really don't see the case for scum!EL. Why do you think she's scum?

[GuiltyLion]

@GL - I see what you're saying about Revan but given Titus's flip I'm having trouble seeing Revan being partnered with anyone left. I guess most likely would probably be AS. I also agree with you about the EL case - it seemed pretty weak to me.

My analysis can be simple because a lot of the people in this game are easy to read, except Titus and GuiltyLion.

This post was why I thought scum!Revan's partner would be either Titus or GL. Still think that's likely. Post 866 could easily be a bus.

I am having a hard time squaring the difference in how you are talking to/about me between these two posts. Your vote says that you think I'm scum, but the first post is talking to me as if my intentions are honest. What exactly is your read on me, and why?

Your posts after my 866 match the way I would expect scum!SS partnered with Revan to play. Giving yourself room to move over to him if necessary today while setting up to mislynch me tomorrow, or get the win by lynching me today instead.

[GuiltyLion]

She tried tunneling me when I was conftown.

EL - you should respond to this

[GuiltyLion]

Prodding GL
As the game has been going on for a while I will give him 12 hours to pick up his prod despite it being his third prod as getting a replacement now would be troublesome.

Sorry, I didn't realize I was so close to being prodded already! I appreciate this

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: EL

I think this has a higher chance of being scum than Titus

You've made one post about EL's phrasing. I don't think you realize the reason you can't convince people to join you on EL is because you're not making a case.

What's changed between now and then?

I agreed with Titus's case.

???????? This is just a blatant contradiction. Between ~679 and when he votes me, Revan asks Titus multiple times to provide evidence and then states that the evidence she's providing isn't enough. (See #664#679#682#695) This is definitely something worth looking into.

This is a really good catch, another reason why Revan is absolutely the right lynch today

[GuiltyLion]

also note that Revan isn't really adding any reads or opinions, just halfheartedly nitpicking at arguments against him. That's textbook scumplay for when you're about to be lynched, clam up and don't give away any last posts that could incriminate your partner

[GuiltyLion]

I'm concerned with everyone's willingness to lynch Revan.

I don't actually see any willingness to lynch Revan from you at all

[GuiltyLion]

@GL - the reason my vote is on you now is because I don't want to put Revan to 2 votes, I would still vastly prefer lynching him today.

like this really isn't consistent with a townie frame of mind. If I'm partners with Revan and my vote is already on him then a quickhammer at L-2 is flatly impossible

if you really thought Revan was the correct lynch you wouldn't be worried about a quickhammer

[GuiltyLion]

Scum is in {GL, EL, AS}

yes, this post tells us so much about who you want to lynch today and why you think they're scum

[GuiltyLion]

Strongly disagree with these. She's been pretty consistent ever since Titus flipped town about wanting Revan hung the most. And at this stage of the game, anyone who puts their scumread in quickhammer range without being 100% sure of their guilt is either reckless or scum.

Words are not actions - my point is that Sobolev says she wants a Revan lynch, but has voted elsewhere multiple times now and openly advocated for lynching me instead.

And I don't understand your last sentence - short of a night action result, how can you ever be 100% sure of someone's guilt?

[GuiltyLion]

Recent posts make me think that GL (or maybe Sparkles, but this is less likely) is trying to set me up for a mislynch in lylo after bussing their partner Revan.

oh wait where have I heard this before

Your vote says that you think I'm scum, but the first post is talking to me as if my intentions are honest. What exactly is your read on me, and why?

Your posts after my 866 match the way I would expect scum!SS partnered with Revan to play. Giving yourself room to move over to him if necessary today while setting up to mislynch me tomorrow, or get the win by lynching me today instead.

S_S is seeing now that the Revan lynch is gonna go through and now she's pushing the lynch on me tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

The cycle of faltering/uncertainty on him was enough to make me think a partnership was possible, but not enough for me to think your 905 was justified.

frankly I'm just going to play the experience card here and tell you flat out that my 905 was absolutely justified. I've played a ton of games here and I know how to identify a player saying one thing but voting/doing another. If it's late in the game and you are not voting your top scumread then something is off.

[GuiltyLion]

@Revan - I'd still like for you to explain your read on GL in more depth.

why? If he's scum then everything he says is just going to be WIFOM anyway

I don't see how this is a protown question

[GuiltyLion]

I'd just like to get this out there: is it possible that scum could have chosen not to kill last night to make Tojam seem town? It's way out there and it's highly unlikely this happened, but it's still something to keep in mind. I think it's more likely that scum is noob though.

Scum are allowed to no-kill, but I don't think that's what happened here. The thing about Tojam's BP claim that makes him essentially conftown is that he made the claim before anyone else had claimed yet, and he still hasn't been CC'd.

Knowing now that we had a JKer, we are either in column A or Row 1. If he were scum in column A, he would have been CC'd by now (and probably when he first made the claim). If we are in Row 1 and tojam is scum, then from scum perspective he could have been in B, C, 1, or 3 when he made the claim, and he just happened to hit the one setup where nobody could CC him. It's technically possible, but highly unlikely. Scum usually only pull the fake-BP claim when the JK is already revealed or flipped and they know it's a safe claim. If they're in goon-goon and they think they're going down, they're more likely to claim something like Doctor to get the high priority night kill PRs (JKer or Doctor) to out themselves.

[GuiltyLion]

@Revan @tojam2 @GuiltyLion @EccentricLemon

Any more thoughts to share?

Nah

[GuiltyLion]

@The people that want to lynch me today, who do you think my partner is?

This question has absolutely no pro-town purpose.

Revan is scum.

Actually I would like to take a sec and explain why S_S is right here and you shouldn't have answered this question. All this information does is help Revan's partner make a good NK to give them the best chance of winning. When you start talking about who you would like to lynch in future days, it gives scum hints about who they should kill and creates WIFOM over who stays alive. Always focus on today's target, and give snapshots of your reads to be transparent, but sometimes it's really anti-town to lay your cards down and show everyone exactly what you're thinking.

[GuiltyLion]

Naw his hammer was 100% a scumclaim, I was just the only one who saw it

Kind of shocking how much of a scumlord he was this game while getting TRed for it xD

I feel like only bowdown and Lemon ever really townread me, and Lemon was wavering on D3. the key to successful scumplay is making sure there are always better wagons on not-you, the wagons matter more than people's reads IMO

I'm sorry for being scum guys, I prefer town by a mile. Hope it was fun for everyone!

Thanks SirCakez for modding and yeah I'm fine with releasing the PT. the only embarrassing thing in there is I suggested we should roleblock Revan N1, in hindsight that was dumb and pretty risky

[GuiltyLion]

also AS you played real well this game! made my job easy. thanks for being such a great partner in crime

[GuiltyLion]

also yeah nancy you absolutely destroyed me in twilight, I was expecting to get lynched on D2

[GuiltyLion]

Excessive justification of that hammer suggests to me that you were afraid that someone would wise up and the wagon on EL would resume. We already know you promised to hammer me before bed, you don't need to remind that you promised it just because Titus was defending me and it might make the hammer look suspicious. Tojam already said he'd hammer me and we all know by his posting history that he isn't particularly fond of me. Scum. You are scum.

Again posting another convenient "scumhunt" post. Agent Sparkles is already heavily suspected. Was. A red flip for me would not clear Titus, that is bs and you're trying to misdirect town into thinking that because me flipping red = Titus clear, me flipping green = Titus scum.

these two posts in particular, I think deserved second look from all the townies because they were spot on. My hammer was excessive and awkward, and the last sentence in the second post is exactly what I was trying to do. subtle tricks like that often work but you saw right through it.