Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Spoiler:
These are some quotes of Quick pushing Gamma D2, D3, and pushing Shea wrt to his Gamma push in Day 1. I bring this up solely because, Gamma likes to use his own slot as a stepping stone for his scum mates to use and take a better position in the game. In the back of my mind, I thought "Ok, if LQ and Gamma are scum, we might be in a pickle." In Penguin Mafia Redux, Gamma slowed down his posting on purpose so I could agree with Transcend's points on Gamma, which made me think 'Ah, he is right, may be town then' when I was having problems with the Transcend slot. Turns out, they were cross bussing each other day 3 so that either one could get town credit based on that push. When I say Gamma is similar to there, I mean the tactical aspect of his play, or at least how it is associated to LQ. That idea was suddenly sparked when I see him and LQ, both people town reading CES, voting CES upon NSG's case. Shea comes in and reverses his read he has had on CES all game as well. They are openly wolfing here. Why, I don't know. Their votes on CES need a hard look in future days.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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In post 2784, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Unfortunately not yet, other things happened. As for Marquis suspectors I think it will be easier to sort with a flip of Marquis.In post 2738, northsidegal wrote:
Did you get around to doing this? What came of it?In post 2692, Gamma Emerald wrote:
I'm actually considering itIn post 2622, Ranmaru wrote:I'm not going to switch again. Join me.
I'll look over CES again and maybe Marq too
it certainly can be, and i think from what iIn post 2709, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Plenty scumread him, but it can be read into what is done with that readIn post 2665, northsidegal wrote:In post 2661, LicketyQuickety wrote:Incorrect question. You should be asking instead, why wouldn't Scum bus Marquis?- It puts them at one lynch away from an instant loss, a significantly disadvantaged position that they don't need to put themselves in.
- If marquis is scum, there are other town lynches would be equally as easy to push as the marquis wagon (and wouldn't be on a scumbuddy).
- Nobody gains significant towncred from a scum marquis flip given that he's barely around to provide any interactions and the number of people willing to scumread him.
haveread into of that, it indicates that he's town. did you come to a different conclusion based on the number of people willing to scumread him?-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Look at Shea's notes on his Scum game in Mini Normal 1811. I think that's the game I was speaking of. He interacted plenty with Transcend as well, mulch too. They were all active and caught up with me, the highest poster.In post 2332, Thestatusquo wrote:Eh, fuck it. I'll post it anyway. He read your thing about unvotes before posting so was explicitly looking for it.
Cheets meta dive of gamma:
TownGame Anything UPick
Large amount of off topic posting
Serious from the very start of game with vote, Votes Whemeplay for suggesting shooting the vig.
There's very a very disappointingly low amount of him actually playing the game here.
Some setup spec, could maybe see him speccing on team comp if he doesn't ever setup spec as scum
Isn't afraid to be doing nothing and not pushing anything as town
Clumsy. Puts his foot in his mouth a bit.
Holds serious votes very long.
Is frequently annoyed at being pushed.
Gets lynched.
TownGame Gold Rush
Replaced in.
Says that he doesn't feel capable of playing a "deep wolf game."
This game happened after team mafia started, so very recent. Basically saying he doesn't think he can carry a scum team.
Not relevant to alignment, but cheet is annoyed that in his catchup he responds to single posts on at a time.
Doesn't vote at all in his catchup.
Suspicious of competent players who lurk
Unvotes very frequently as town here.
Votes Cabd basically for not engaging enough with the game.
TownGame Valentine's Dance
Setup specc at the very beginning of the game.
Is paranoid of the "good players" on the list.
Lots of pokes at peoples reads when they're expressing higher confidence than he thinks they should be.
Thinks overanalyzing setup spec is scummy. (lol)
Again, very tentative with pairing similar to with voting.
Scum really pushed for his ML
Gets really annoyed when people are worse than he expects of them
Says he has a reactive scum game.
He gets VERY angry.
ScumGame Mini Normal 1811
Asks busywork questions rather than commenting on things going on.
Unvotes.
LOT of buddy interaction. Way higher than most.
Another unvote.
Sheeps "townreads". We don't think we saw that anywhere in the town games we read.
He votes a lot more frequently as scum in this game.
Puts a lot of emphasis on distancing from his buddies.
He is less defensive and gets less angry at people for scum reading him.
More willing to compromise with his votes than the town games.
Votes a lot more frequently.
Lots of waffly fence sitting.
Literally no angry reaction to being pushed [to clear a scum buddy]
White Flag
Early vote on Marquis
Vote on Dunnstral
Unvotes
Votes TSQ
Cheet thinks he's taking this game a lot more seriously than any of the other games we read, and this comes out in his tone and his demeanor.
Unvotes while reviewing.
Votes LQ for being too argumentative for the sake of being argumentative
post 647 is a game that we would expect to see more in his town game than scum game.
Votes TChill for shading, bad reasons, etc.
Says that LQ is playing entirely reactively
Says he stopped reading about halfway through because he's tired of reading so many gamma posts.
But we got through several town games a scum game and half of this one.
General thoughts:
Cheet thought, before doing this dive that townGamma is generally obv town. But he's more lynchbaity than he originally thought based off of these games.
Gamma's scum game is pretty weak (based off of prior experience) He gets lynched d1-3 a lot, so cheet tried to dive a game where he lasted longer than that.
He thinks that given gammas self-evaluation of his scum game, he'd be very unlikely to take a scum slot unless he had the direct intention of being early bus fodder to clear his teammates.
He thinks that based off of what hes seen here he can only really see gamma as scum with LQ because of that, otherwise hes not really doing anything to overcome his self described "not deep wolf game." The rest of the pushing and engagement is too scattered to make sense otherwise.
With his votes, his scumgame was typically a little more votey, where his towngame is a lot more unsure and tentative.
He thinks that overall if he were reading this in a vacuum he would say the play is more similar to his scum game than his town game, but he doesn't think this is a super weight-y point because its possible that team mafia makes gamma play a lot more seriously than he typically does as either alignment, which is generally born out in the lack of shit posting in this game which you see constantly in other games of both alignments.
He reiterates that he thinks 647 is way more likely to come from town gamma than scum gamma.
There isn't really the waffly fence sitting or the awkwardness or the compromise in this game that we saw in his scum play.
Basically we still think he's more likely to be town than scum.
This is untrue. We saw him unvote in literally all three town games. If anything, unvoting seems like a town tell to us. Though its likely not that either.You also rarely see him unvoting in games he is Town.
LQ wrote:
Cheet doesn't think this is true and he wants to know what votes you think it applies to.In this game, if you look at his votes, they are very "well I guess, not really sure" which looks really bad for him.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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The interaction between LQ and Gamma seems like distancing, but his interactions with Marquis seem the same way too. With how he says 'There are reasons to scumread you'. I think Gamma has been playing a solid game, and I did say if he were scum, we'd be outplayed and that is what I think is happening here. He just slipped up with his recent push on CES.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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I noted you saying Gamma is locktown and didn't think to respond, but I want to mention that Llama did say that is how he won as scum, being locktown due to 'no connections' to scum. Also, yes Shea points Gamma as a possible scum partner to LQ. Yet he then says 'in a vacuum, his play is similar to his scum game over town game but it may be because he's taking Team Mafia seriously overall'. There are only two posts that I can remember at the top of my head that made me wary of Gamma, but I considered trivial. Yes, LQ and Dan were the only ones that wanted him, and CES. I think that would give them room to distance, otherwise if Gamma were in more trouble, I'm not sure how they'd want to play that out.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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In post 961, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: LQ
At this point I'm honestly wanting this flip more, he's scummy, his scumminess matches past reconds of scumplay, andhonestly at first blush srceenplay doesn't seem half bad
These two posts were the only things that made me go 'uh oh'.In post 1999, Gamma Emerald wrote:You know what I think Dunn might just be that stupid but like
I still suspect him even without that part of things-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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I think it's possible CES voted one scum. (Gamma) Now like I said, I did note that there was less of him working together with me as I have seen in his other games. He says he tried working together with Llama but was rebuffed. I don't really expect CES to be gamesolving. I will say that part of my concern with CES is because I have only played one game with him where he was scum. Don't have much experience with his town play. I disagree with his postie NKA theory, I felt my theory was better. A thing to note is that RC did also read Gamma and Shea as scum, alongside myself. Now on his wagon not taking off:
I think scum were avoiding it to give a false sense of 'hey this person must be scum, since it's not gaining steam'. I think if [Gamma, Quick, Shea] are the team, then they had two scum wagon Marquis each day. Quick, Gamma Day 1. Gamma, Quick Day 2. Gamma, Shea, Day 3. Although, Day 3 I do remember Quick voting CES.4. VCA
I'm confident in saying that cogito ergo sum has voted only town this entire game.
The cogito ergo sum wagon never moves anywhere despite nobody really townreading him. Here are the people who have voted CES:
Day 1 – {Lycan, Ran, NSG}
Day 2 – {Eddie, Lycan}
Day 3 – {Lycan, Davsto, NSG, Ran}
Comparatively, the people who have voted marquis (excluding rvs) are:
Day 1 – {Davsto, Dunn, CES, Llama, Quick, Gamma}
Day 2 – {Ran, Eddie, Gamma, CES, Quick, Dunn}
Day 3 – {CES, Quick, Dunn, Ran, Gamma, TSQ}
The cogito ergo sum wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. The marquis wagon does, the same way the eddie wagon did. If cogito ergo sum were town, his wagon should have taken off at some point during this game, but it hasn't – not even after ran was canvassing pretty hard for it.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Gamma, in your town games, have you ever reversed a read on a solid town read you had all game like this?
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Who do you think are scum in the case of CESscum and CEStown and why?In post 3234, Gamma Emerald wrote:Withdrawing intent to hammer
Honestly I'm not so sure on CES here. Like I think if he were scum he'd be lynched cos his buddies would be trying to bus him for some sweet cred
So either he's not scum or he is and scum are on his wagon already-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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In post 3211, Thestatusquo wrote:Have you been paying literally attention to LQ this game? Have you been paying literally any attention to ANYTHING in this game besides marquis?
Because I've had to do that like 5 times.
VOTE: ces
L-1.
If we lynch dunn/marquis/ces/NSG we win the game.In post 2439, Thestatusquo wrote:You know what.
Fuck you
VOTE: LQ
I don't give a fuck if you're town I'm not playing with you anymore.In post 2083, Thestatusquo wrote:
Any particular reason for each on this list of three?In post 2081, LicketyQuickety wrote:OK, so my biggest 3 suspects at this point are:
shea
Gamma
Marquis
Ran, I'm pretty sure that I want to lynch somewhere in [Dunn, NSG, marquis] today. I'm least sure about marquis because of Reck's town read on him.
I have pretty lock town reads on ran lycan and davsto and everyone else is kind of in a mish mash of various town and scum leans.In post 1694, Thestatusquo wrote:
If Eddie is town I think my focus goes back onto LQ. I have pause on postie because on the one hand I have liked her play and think shes more likely to be town, but on the other hand RC is VERY capable of a long term push on a townie expecting to run them up and not get any heat from it.In post 1688, Ranmaru wrote:Lycanfire: I was telling people to look at your votes so they'd see you voting CES and not doing as much from my perspective. I've looked at your meta and it checks out. I think that interaction means they are not aligned. It's possible he didn't care about it since he town reads you, though. CES explains the #466 in his #1451. I liked your response, so I'm retracting my scum read on you.
Shea: I thought it was AI because I've done it before as scum, that's the simplest way to explain it. Fair enough on reconsidering reads. That is a good point, actually (the informal thing). I didn't consider that. 4) makes sense too. Fair on number seven, if Eddie is scum then I'll have no problem at all. Fair on pushing gamma for reactions. Fair enough on the T-chill/LQ association.
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I've decided I'm wrong on this entirely, including CES if he's right on Postie/Eddie. I'm now willing to help with the Eddie wagon. I'm concerned about LQ's actions as I pushed for Shea/Lycanfire.In post 841, Thestatusquo wrote:@Ran I would happily kill either LQ or Tchill. Right now there is a wagon on one of them and not on the other. I have pretty high confidence in my scum reads on both of them, so I don't see why it makes sense for me to switch over to LQ at this time unless the wagon moved over there for some reason independent of me.In post 1400, Thestatusquo wrote:VOTE: EddieFenix
I think that LQ being scum mostly makes sense from the perspective of tchill being scum. If tchill isn't scum a lot of LQs actions on that wagon look a lot better.
Willing to throw some muscle behind postie's push. I think the case makes a lot of sense.
Not really wanting to go after marquis. But if he tries to lurk through this day too I want him to eat rope really quick.In post 1595, Thestatusquo wrote:Actually I'm pretty sure reasoning out my response to ran makes me think that there's a higher chance of scum LQ approaching the wagon the way he did than I was previously thinking.In post 2382, Thestatusquo wrote:I'm not lynching ces over dunn nsg and marquis.
From my reread I didn't particularly like dunn at all. He and marquis are basically the same player in this game but one keeps getting tons of pressure and the other is getting none. Plus reck is screaming at me that dunn is scum in the discord.
Another thing that continually keeps coming up is LQ as a counter wagon to the town wagons. It's happened both days. I'm not huge on VCA but that does suggest to me that LQ is more likely to be town because there's not a lot of scum incentive to try to shift the wagon off of a town player that way, which means likely the early votes on his wagons were town as well.
VOTE: dunnestral
I want this before marquis and nsg. But I'd happily vote any of the three of them today.
@lycanWhat do you think of my meta analysis on ces?
@LQis that a response to what cheet said?-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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1. Sus vote on CES, his town read that he has had all game. Doesn't explain why CES's reaction means it is a scum reaction.
2. Is fine with helping the Eddie push without doing much of nothing Day 2.
3. Has Quick as scum independently, but prioritizes Eddie without any actual re-evaluation (BEFORE the talk with me). Then town-reads Quick. He never intended to switch from Chill to Quick.
4. His presence Day 2 and Day 3 has diminished by a landslide. He's not actively trying to influence the game as he did in Day 1.
5. Static scumreads, doesn't really do a good job of looking for slots that may be actually scum. (In the case of AD, AD at least had Gamma so he's fine)-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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CES, vote Shea with me. Tell me what you think of his vote on you.
Davsto: What do you think of his recent play? Would you care to join?
NSG: I think I will die tonight, and I think it's best we push Shea today before there is less support for it tomorrow. What do you think of his vote on CES?
Quick: You suspect Shea, join us.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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If you do consider replacing, get Zachrulez. Solid player, he's still in replacement que.In post 3246, Marquis wrote:I've put this off long enough but I'm going to really consider replacing out. I don't expect this to end anytime as soon as I thought it would and you all know I keep tapping in and out here.
Asking my team about it, will get back in the morning with a fresh head and final decision.-
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Scum motivation: Be proactive Day 1 to have the appearance of being town. Interacts with scum mates, drops push the next day in favor of Eddie push. Once the players that can read him correctly are gone (Llama, RC) He becomes lazy. Has resorted to skimming. Isn't actually reading posts I link to him (since he had to ask NSG if I said anything about scum teams) Opportunistic vote on CES. (States CES is null but doesn't think he should go before Dunnstral, NSG, Marquis) Reason: Possibly because town won't punish Quick/Gamma/Shea for whatever they do so they make this aggressive play.
Town motivation: Looks for scum Day 1. Becomes lazy due to in real life reasons. I can't see any town motivation beyond that.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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I think you are scum regardless of his flip.In post 3313, Thestatusquo wrote:
I still don't understand why you think ces flip makes me scum. With LQ of literally all players. That would require you to think scums strategy is just basically turbo bussing which is just bizarre.In post 3271, Ranmaru wrote:Quick: Same question. Who is scum on CEStown flip, and CESscum flip. In fact, everyone answer this. Ces scum = Ces, Shea, Quick.-
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I predicted you'd change your stance once you get the opportunity to join a Shea wagon. Who is scum on a CEStown flip and CESscum flip?In post 3344, LicketyQuickety wrote:I hate to say this because it means I was wrong, but I think the shea wagon is a Scum driven wagon.-
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No, I won't.In post 3346, ActionDan wrote:Also I'm fairly certain Ran/Dunn/Lycan will be parking their votes on me tomorrow regardless of any outcome today, which is mainly where the mislynch bit came from.-
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Who is scum on a CES town flip? CES scum flip?In post 3343, ActionDan wrote:Currently I think it's most likely Dunn/Ran/? where ? could be a number of options, though CES is one of them-
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In post 3355, Ranmaru wrote:It wasn't as easy as the CES wagon just two or three pages ago. It's just me, Dunn, and CES (who can see how bad Shea's vote was). So, the wagon on Shea right now makes sense. Plus remember when I voted Shea Day 2, and you didn't actually join me. That was your time to wagon him as well.-
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This is how I feel right now. I'm not sure I have much else to say.In post 2602, northsidegal wrote:i would much rather be trying to figure out viable scumteams with you. it's just that i think you're pointed in the entirely wrong direction.-
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NSG: The point about CES's team mates. I think that depends on the situation. Right now, the only team mate following my game is A50 at this time. Everyone, but me, died at night. (Or was already lynched) So, either checked out from boredom (from lack of involvement) or depression (for being lynched). Yet, I will say your point here is sort of fair, as I did try to get CES to have Singersigner comment and I didn't get a response. I know she prefers town like I do. That is why I wanted her feedback. So I do wonder why I've heard nothing from her.-
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