Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Ranmaru]

I will engage it right now.

[Ranmaru]

How is it confbiased if I wasn't even pushing it until recently? I have been flip flopping on my reads trying to re-evaluate, but then my gut tells me 'No this is not scum' and I go in this direction. I think I understand why you have a problem with CES, and I think you are being misguided with your push on him. You are so confbiased by your read on CES you think his main push is a mislynch.

[Ranmaru]

i've given reasons in the past for why i think you're scum. i also get the feeling from the way you're framing things here that marquis is the scumteam's designated mislynch (this combined with dunnstral's later vote).

I acknowledge that you've mistakenly claimed I had a town read on Tchill before in order to paint my hammer in a scummy light; that was part of it.

don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him. even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.

i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you. especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

To be fair it seemed likely that Screenplay was salvaging a scumslot upon switching in. Otherwise, T-chill would have picked up the slack himself instead of lurking out. That's on T-chill. (Eddie too) It's bad play to lurk out as town.

You say you haven't seen any gamesolving or scumhunting from CES. Technically, he is scumhunting, and he is pushing for Marquis. Gamesolving, he isn't doing as much as I am, but that is his playstyle. This may be your first time playing with him, but he typically plays in a concise manner. I think Llamarble said that usually if he's town, he's pretty accurate. I think I have a good understanding of the game, and I feel Marquis does too. That's why Marquis knows how to pop in and seem town. I don't understand why you have had a null-town read on him all game though. I think you are also being unfair to CES. He asks you to look at Marquis's meta and you say you didn't look into it. #584 So, have you looked into that yet? Right now the person who needs to re-evaluate is you.

[Ranmaru]

CES

: I want a full reads list from you with reasoning.

[Ranmaru]

Unvote

[Ranmaru]

NSG

: I have unvoted, and I am willing to talk to you. I will be back later.

[Ranmaru]

Quick, what's your read on CES right now?

[Ranmaru]

I don't want you on a vanity wagon. I want you on the wagon I go on.

[Ranmaru]

Sweet.

[Ranmaru]

Actually, I've already realized I was wrong and I'm sorry for coming across as stubborn. I'll elaborate in a bit. I think you are right.

[Ranmaru]

CES's #122 looks like a buddy talking to another buddy, about a wagon he hasn't actually commented on yet. Action Dan has a good point on CES: #526 He doesn't think CES had good reason to scumread him before he was wagonned, nor had he stated that reasoning before. He stated this: #349 asking Llama why he considers Marquis the towniest, which comes off as slightly forced. #665 and #728 are votes against one confirmed town, and a high town read. His reads on Lycan and Shea in his #1596 are lazy. If he says he is having trouble finding scum, why does he cop out when it comes to these two? I agree that his #1597 comes off as non-passionate. #2279 I don't like because he doesn't actually explain his actions when NSG's team mate gave a good point. Seemed he was more intend on discrediting NSG there instead of having her understand his play. He doesn't seem to have a good explanation for why he went about it like that: #2334

In general, he doesn't seem passionate in his pushes, nor does he actually push the Marquis wagon as hard. He says this is due to being busy. His read on Shea is lazy, and shows he isn't really trying to sort him, especially when he needs to re-evaluate his reads. I do agree with NSG that his Eddie vote was bad. Some of his early posts to LQ seem awkward. Lately CES has been seeming townie but these small scumtells are what made me reconsider. Marquis really seemed like scum here by the way he was playing and it gave CES enough fuel for me to be convinced.

[Ranmaru]

Vote: CES

[Ranmaru]

NSG, I want you to talk to me about Shea and Quick.

[Ranmaru]

CES: It's fine to bite your lip and sheep someone's read. It's still lazy to not really try to reconsider it later in the game after two mislynches. You even stated that the Postie kill worries you, how has that affected your reads?

[Ranmaru]

CES Scum motivation: Argue with a buddy to interact with him about a scum read [CES] has yet to speak about. Hammer two town he isn't passionate in to progress scum win condition. Discredit NSG rather then explain himself to her to taint her as scum (since there is some idea of her being scum from Reck and myself). Uses the excuse of sheeping Llama to avoid sorting Shea, his scum mate.

CES Town motivation: Only town motivation I can find is him genuinely being busy. It would be understandable if he tried to reconsider his read on Shea later on, but he doesn't. His votes on town (Postie, Gamma) would make sense if he was also trying to consider his other reads (Shea, Lycan) yet he doesn't, so it doesn't line up to me.

[Ranmaru]

Quick, will you vote CES now?

[Ranmaru]

Vote CES with me.

[Ranmaru]

Vote with your town read instead of voting by yourself. Work with me.

[Ranmaru]

I'm not going to switch again. Join me.

[Ranmaru]

[Ranmaru]

I'll be waiting.

[Ranmaru]

No, you should sheep me.

[Ranmaru]

Interesting.

[Ranmaru]

Can you tell me why you decide to vote Marquis? Why not join me on CES?

[Ranmaru]

So is this a policy vote?

[Ranmaru]

I'm staying on CES.

[Ranmaru]

Gamma

: Join me on CES. I know you town read him, but two scum are on the Marquis wagon right now. (Shea and LQ) Look at #2578 and #2629. Tell me what you think of those votes. One of Marquis and CES are scum.

[Ranmaru]

(Three scum since CES is also on it, but I mean two scum joined it recently)

[Ranmaru]

Shea: Starts out voting NSG in his #82 because he doesn't like that she used wifom, and that she was voting in a way that he felt didn't progress RVS. Yet, a page before, Lycanfire votes Shea in his #70, without any reasoning at all. Shea never asks or comments on Lycan's post here. In his #440 Mentions Tchill and LQ and a pool of players who might be scum with them, but doesn't mention Lycanfire. He doesn't really seem to try to sort Lycanfire, he just townbins him. I still think this is a concerning play from Shea: #435. He interrupts his push on Lycan and doesn't actually comment. He states in his defense #1673 that he just thought it was garbage and felt no need to defend Lycan to his scumread. Yet he hasn't really done much with Quick after reading him as town. During Day 2, I was pushing Quick again but he was not really pushing much, he just commented a bit when I was talking about his progression. Doesn't feel like he had passion for LQ as scum during Day 2, and was content with sitting on Eddie from the beginning. Him wanting to look into Dunn doesn't really feel like he's trying that hard to find mafia, and Lycan did make the point that [Eddie and Dunn are both lynchbait]. (Note if he has ever criticized Shea for pushing Dunn) I do like that he's attempting to work with me more after my original concerns, but still feel he is scum. I don't think his read on Lycan is convincing, and don't understand why he has Dunn as scummier than NSG. NSG feels scummier than Dunn and I feel Shea is running out of options. (Although I think NSG is town, just that she seems like scum from her recent play) #2083 In general, Shea posts reads lists but doesn't really give reasoning along with them, which doesn't help me see why he feels a certain way. Scum.

---

@Ran I would happily kill either LQ or Tchill. Right now there is a wagon on one of them and not on the other. I have pretty high confidence in my scum reads on both of them, so I don't see why it makes sense for me to switch over to LQ at this time unless the wagon moved over there for some reason independent of me.

---

He says this but his actions don't show this, especially on Day 2 when he just sits on Eddie. Today, he had started a counter wagon on Dunn, without being able to elaborate on why: #2580. In his #2439 he votes LQ instead of voting Dan with me, when I tell him to. It shows he was interested in voting LQ (since that interaction was staged) over voting likely scum in his pov (as he stated to me in #2393. Now, you ask me, why do LQ and Shea interact like that when Marquis is being wagoned? Would Marquis not be the buddy they are trying to save? It would seem that's what they'd want us to think. Yet Shea has been defending the slot quite a bit, and LQ has been poking everywhere about it (like myself when I gave a null town read of him). Yet they are doing that as a red herring. It's more telling to see this: #1734. When I pushed for Shea, LQ was quiet, and voting for me.

[Ranmaru]

NSG

: A50 says for you to stay on CES as he is most confident on this one. I agree.

[Ranmaru]

Therefore you are voting on policy. Yet you can vote with your town read on CES if both were null to you. You have no reason to vote Marquis on policy. Why do you think Shea is scum with Marquis?

[Ranmaru]

Quick, answer my question.

[Ranmaru]

So why are you voting with his preferred scum read?

[Ranmaru]

Normally, you would vote the option scum don't want. Not the option they want. You both [Quick and Creature] are reading Shea as scum, yet you are fine with wagoning a null read for policy, while being

with a scum read

.

[Ranmaru]

This is white flag.

[Ranmaru]

Votecount 3.6

Marquis(5)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, Thestatusquo, LicketyQuickety

Cogito Ergo Sum(4)

~ Lycanfire, Davsto, northsidegal, Ranmaru

Ranmaru(1)

~ Marquis

Dunnstral(1)

~ ActionDan


Not Voting (1): EddieFenix

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

FLAVOR

This is an automated vote count generated by a tool written by MathBlade. It goes much smoother with exact votes but will try to detect bold votes and misspellings. If you have issues during this beta, please get MathBlade.

Performed 15 calls in 60 seconds. With an average of 4.0404 seconds per call.

[Ranmaru]

Disregard Eddie.

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

[Ranmaru]

Answer the question.

[Ranmaru]

Go ahead and answer both questions. Otherwise it shows that you have something to hide.

[Ranmaru]

Answer the question.

[Ranmaru]

Quick is being intentionally obtuse so he can be read as town when he is actually scum. NSG, since Quick doesn't want to answer the question, go ahead and answer it for him to show why he doesn't want to give that up to town.

[Ranmaru]

Quick

: My read changed due to this: 2380, this: #2410, and this: #2487. This too: #2629. You vote your consistent town read, for pressure. It's another weird vote like your vote on myself in Day 2. The next link is a very forced reaction. The third is you lying about Shea not answering to you, which lines up with you being obtuse as scum to rile him up, you don't care to sort him. The last is you voting Marquis without giving a conclusion or talking to me about it. You just vote him, even though he's null to you and you are voting on policy. Your reads change at the drop of a hat, and your push on me and Shea is obtuse on purpose to get the reaction from others that you are town.

[Ranmaru]

Dunnstral, tell me what you think of Shea's vote on Marquis, and Quick's vote on Marquis. Tell me what you think of this: #2607

[Ranmaru]

Thank you Dunnstral. Quick, I'm going to sleep, but can you answer this: #2660 I'll respond tomorrow after I get home from work.

[Ranmaru]

I am at work. Right now, Marquis why did your read on Quick change, and what is the reasoning for it now? What is your read of Shea? How do you feel about the Shea and Quick votes on you?

CES, talk to me about Quick. Also please give me two town games of yours and two scum games. Will respond to you as well when I get home.

[Ranmaru]

For the record only because I don't think I've elaborated on this anyway

That's why I asked them. Tell me what you think of this: #2380, and those pages. Tell me what you thought of LQ v Shea there.

[Ranmaru]

That's the end of my break. I'll respond to Quick and CES after work. (That's at 8PM)

Marquis, what are non-risk wagons?

[Ranmaru]

I am starting to think you are Scum actually. Reason being is that your read(s) (at least on me) seem to come from something based on my stances and change on a whim, rather than any deductive thought. Regardless of if you can case me (or others for that matter) is really of no consequence. What I am looking at is how your reads are almost by definition changing based on the reads of others without looking at the reasoning behind those reads from those players. I don't see a Town motivation for this considering it occupies manipulation as opposed to an unbiased presentation.

They change by my feeling and by your actions, not reads. You stating I am scum reading you for not liking your read is an obvious misrepresentation. Your tone when addressing me here is much different then: #2442 or this: #2666. It makes me wonder why you take on that tone when I'm bringing up a concern. You bring up 'why you do things as town' yet you still have not answered my #1790. Compare the scum motivation and town motivation and explain why you think I don't have town motivation for what I'm doing, and then I'll explain to you the town motivation. I also am wondering why you didn't respond to my #2350. I'm fine with your Shea read. If you presented a serious case like you are doing so in your 2689, I'd look into it. I didn't get your push in those pages when I voted you, it seemed like a distraction rather then a push to wagon Shea. Also another thing to note that is you always omgus me. Why do you always omgus me?

[Ranmaru]

Because Ranmaru is obvtown for one. I think it's a pattern you see often with inactive but relatively competent scum - they try to fill their few posts with attempts to look town, so Marquisscum would absolutely do the classic vote against the grain here (Marquistown could also do it, sure, but it's not exactly likely.)

Would you say Marquis is a competent player? I don't see how comparing a different player to Marquis is really going to sell me on your read on Marquis. Have you looked into Marquis's meta? Now I have looked at your games (especially your town games), I think it is different. Can you explain why that is? Have you thought about my #2352, what do you think about it? Also, why do you think Llama was killed? In reference to your Shea read, what does him being very 'Sheaeay' mean and why does it make you at ease with sheeping Llama? What do you think of Shea's interactions with LQ?

[Ranmaru]

Quick, then please, answer my questions, and then explain to me what you were trying to convey in a concise case.

[Ranmaru]

Will you at least give a concise case on Shea?

[Ranmaru]

I think these are good posts to look at again while things are slow:

In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.
Scum are going to NK TSQ, Me and / or Postie, NSG / Ran
That's 5 lynches; we get 6. If we haven't won the game with those 5, the people still alive at that point can reevaluate.
If somehow those 5 players are all town, then well played scum. Team would have to be like Marquis Postie NSG or something.
In fairness, NSG scum is more plausible than I was thinking; her ISO is essentially just some reads and reasons.
NSG mostly works on Eddie and CES teams and such though.

The lylo that would leave is:
Marquis
Dunnstral
Lycan
Davsto
Gamma

Give whoever you lynch the day before lylo (CES if he makes it that far) the right to pick the lylo lynch if they flip town. Otherwise elect somebody to control all the lylo votes.
Town MUST all 3 get it right, if game goes to lylo, so they need some preexisting mechanism to agree and stack their votes or else scum have a 90% chance of winning in 2/3 lylo.
And once again, do not assume someone who lacks a good possible buddy must be town. I was universally scumread in Whiteflag 1 and won as scum because Mith distanced from me successfully and it looked like nobody could be my partner.

I can see LQ flipping town. I can see AD flipping town, maybe. I can see Tchill flipping town if all the scum are on the gamma wagon.
CES I can't really see flipping town here, but I'm also too lazy and not reliable enough at reading him to try to lynch him D1. If alive in lylo, all votes go on him please.
Eddie is probably where my next big timechunk of reading should go.

Put simply I want to set things up D1 to ensure a town win, so I am thinking a few moves ahead. I don't have a very long shelf life as town.
Your post essentially says "I find it annoying that you're thinking far ahead." Which offers even less value than my post
Lynch math - 15 -> 13 -> 11 -> 9 -> 7 -> 5 = 5 lynches; if we've hit scum with those 5 we get an additional lynch.

I think I'm voting town.
VOTE: Tchill
Just do Tchill, when it flips red do CES.
Do AD or maybe LQ if game isn't over by then.

Based on what?
Nightkills go on people who are good at identifying scum and are never going to get lynched.
TSQ is playing well and obviously never getting lynched. If he's scum we'll just have to lynch his buddies.
I'm never getting lynched because I'm town, though if scum want to leave me alive to lylo, letting a player with my history of lynch control and lynch accuracy alive through 5 days, and I fail to win it by then, I will accept my own autolynch in lylo because I'll deserve it.
NSG and Ran and Postie are universal or near universal townreads.

Lynches go to people who are not obvtown or people who are scummy.
There are decent to very good reasons not to lynch Gamma Dunn Lycan Davsto and Marquis, but they aren't universal townreads either so they prob won't eat nightkills.
LQ Eddie Tchill CES AD are all widely scumread players (to varying degrees), for good reason. It's not hard to have a decent guess of where things are going.
Am I getting ahead of myself, sure. Am I really helping by posting this, maybe? I tend to just let my thoughts out in the thread a lot. It can be a little spammy sometimes unfortunately but I don't think there are many players who get as cosmically obvtown as I do so it's worth it to me.

[Ranmaru]

This one too:

CES is rarely particularly townie looking unless he lynches scum.
He's pretty good at not getting lynched though; dangerous scum player.
Often as town he will do enough dmg or look threatening enough to get himself NKed.
My preferred solution is to let him play a few game days but if town isn't winning before lylo he is probably scum.
I generally advocate lynching the player who had no business still being alive in lylo.

AD who is the third scum with TChill and CES if not you? Marquis maybe? He isn't particularly town I suppose.

[Ranmaru]

I do like the idea that we should elect our pick for lylo vote controller. We should proceed like this:

Elect: Gamma

That's my pick. He's currently my strongest town read. Lycanfire is a good pick too.

[Ranmaru]

NSG

: Come in here and talk reads with me. Also read the above posts, and tell me what you think.

Action Dan

: Where are you at with the read? Talk to me about the major wagons.

[Ranmaru]

I think you still have a CES post you said you were making. I'd like to see that too. Also, I still want you to explain your Shea and LQ reads. In fact I want a full reads list from you as well. (When you have the time)

[Ranmaru]

Yes I'd like a reads list from him as well please.

[Ranmaru]

How are you feeling about Action Dan right now? What do you think of his vote on Dunn?

[Ranmaru]

NSG

: I want your reads list tomorrow. I'm going to make one soon as well. Now, I want yours first, not your team mates. You said that you are in control, show me with your reads list.

[Ranmaru]

I'll go read up

? And?

[Ranmaru]

Have you ever considered re-evaluating? Why have your reads remained static? What is your updated read on LQ?

[Ranmaru]

Between CES or Marquis, who would you vote and why? I asked if you have thought of re-evaluating because Dunn has been your main push for a while.

[Ranmaru]

Nope. I totally get what shea is saying. It makes more sense as a personality trait than that they are necessarily Scummy. I'm somewhat of a psychology buff, who reads complicated shit regarding psychology in my free time.

What do you think of this quote, Dan?

[Ranmaru]

Shea, I just want Marquis over dunn. I want you to look at Davsto hard. get back to me on that. Action Dan too.

I just reread the game, what do you want me to say about them?

High level:

Action dan and davsto are very similar players to me in how they've played. Every time they post I think they're town, but neither of them are actually doing much to advance the game and they don't seem to care about who is voted and why. Like, they say they care, and they have opinions, but they are both doing very little to actually achieve the goals.

I think I could actually see either of them as scum from the reread.

That's just a personality trait, I don't think that means they are Scum necessarily.

Ok, but does this response make sense to Shea's point here?

[Ranmaru]

Please elaborate on why you think so. Also go more into the Shea point.

[Ranmaru]

Then tell me what you think of this post: #2410

[Ranmaru]

To me, those posts don't seem genuine. I just wanted to see your point of view on them.

[Ranmaru]

=============
Game Winning Reads
=============

----

Town

----

Gamma: My read on Gamma remains the same. As I have explained in my #2217, this seems much different then his scum game or his third party game. His 'forced' reactions are null, he does it as both alignments. I like his questioning in his #2283, and I like his reconsideration of Quick after Quick rightfully explains himself. In Penguin Mafia Redux, he wasn't actually scumhunting as much. Here he has been doing plenty of that. I would also like those pushing for Gamma (CES) to look into my #2217 and tell me their thoughts. || Basically, my read remains unchanged on Gamma.

Lycanfire: Each time I push him, my gut screams town. I have actually liked his content and analysis up until now. His #2723 is a good post. I also see plenty of gamesolving from Lycan, I just think his push has been a bit misguided, although it would be fair to understand why he has felt that way. I think it's fair to understand why we all are wrong right now. We are too involved. Which reminds me, Lycan is also showing passion for his read, which I read as townie. Town.

CES: He seems to be slightly town, and I was pushing him on his mediocre push on Marquis. I don't see the same energy as I would expect, yet also if [Action Dan / LQ / NSG] is the team, he is mostly town reading them and has them up too high. I have considered the Postie Kill was made due to my own reads being highly incorrect, but I'm thinking the reason may have been to frame CES/Shea (Llama kill) and then Dunnstral with the Postie kill. In fact the whole town is imploding due to 'this person wouldn't pick scum' reasons. I'm going to say this now: Throw all that out the window, now. Look at the play, and see if it lines up with progressing the town win condition. That is all. I think he makes a great point on Action Dan in his #2715, stating that AD felt strongly that Eddie picked a town role PM but hasn't really defended him until Eddie was near dead anyway. Slight town.

Shea: Has been a bit absent, but I can understand since LQ riled him up and he isn't able to find anything with Dunn. I think his #2393 and his #2423, and #2421 are good posts. NSG is starting a trend of not replying to a few things, yet although subtle, is slightly suspicious. I was mostly thinking he was scum with LQ, but I don't think that is as likely now. Overall I didn't really have a problem with his D3 play. I think he is town reading the wrong person. (LQ) Even so, I think he is right on NSG and Action Dan. The end of Day 2 was actually reasonable from him as well. I'm starting to think he's most likely misguided with his read on LQ (which I can't blame him for). Slight town.

Davsto: With Davsto, I couldn't really get a strong vibe from him either way. Which I thought may have been scum trying to be under the radar, but he is on the radar more than Action Dan. I also like his #1725. I also like that he didn't join me on a whim when I asked for his vote. He seems to be trying, and he has updated his reads. Slight town.

----

Null

----

Dunnstral: Repeating what I have said earlier: The only thing I get is null. I do like his votes, on Marquis, and his push on T-chill did seem like he had conviction for it. He has been present, and voting, but that's about it. Not seeing any scum intent from him, though. A50 does have him in the scum pool, which is the only thing I have in the back of my mind to keep in mind when reading Dunnstral. An important post I think, is his #2034, which states he isn't invested. The good thing to keep in mind is, that even though he isn't invested, he's still present. || I haven't really seen much from him today, he's just wondering about the kill for now. If we don't lynch scum before him for at least today / tomorrow, then he needs to die. Yet, I do like his reads list. It would show that he's 2/3 before I even re-considered. Null.

Marquis: I think his reads are surface level. CES says he is competent but I don't get that feeling from him, since he isn't looking at intent. Yet, he's not fully caught up, he's only skimming so his reads make sense there. I have looked at his meta, and only see one town game that seemed solid, others it is 50 / 50 but usually is lynched / mislynched due to his inactivity. I dislike his vote on Dunn, I do think it's possible he may be scum trying to seem town and worm himself in after I give him the opportunity. That's the best he can do to survive without claims. His early play was awkward, but I can see it as him finding scum but then letting scum slip because they are both in the same boat. I think his read on me is also due in part to paranoia, which I can see as coming from town. Marquis is null.
----

Scum

----

Quick: Here's my original case on LQ: Quick Case. In short, his reads are not genuine. He seems to have some good gems, but he reconsiders them with superficial thought. He isn't reading thoroughly, and snaps quickly to discredit rather then determine alignment. Examples: #1721, #2410, #2399; He also seems to be intent on sowing confusion rather then understanding, to distract. He cannot respond to my question of 'what have you done to help town and progress the town win condition?' #2725. Every time I push him he responds with 'This is what I do as town' yet he can't answer to the results he has gained. He omguses each person that pushes him in an obtuse manner, to seem town. He currently sits on a null read due to policy. He is scum, and dies after Action Dan. I encourage everyone, most importantly Shea, to ignore anything he says from here on out. His word means nothing in this town when he can't even answer to the good he may have done the town.

NSG: I think she's scum due to fence sitting, lacking presence, and not committing to the Eddie wagon without a stance on it. She states her lack of motivation was due to having bad posts, but I never got that feeling, and she was never pressured. I certainly think that she is more likely scum who actually lost interest in keeping up. She posts in other games and seems to have more energy for those and leaves this in the back burner. She also hasn't seemed to re-evaluate her CES read, she seems to be more harping on him and trying to find anything she can on him rather then actually try to determine his alignment. #1963 || I began to reconsider and think if maybe she had a point. My concern is that she doesn't seem as eager to talk with CES as she would expect him to be (since she says he isn't sorting). This looks very bad on her. She's putting off the most important thing, and that's interacting with her main scum read. It takes myself calling her out to get her in thread. Her #2581 pinged me in a similar way to Action Dan's post after I voted Eddie. (Which put Eddie at 5 votes) #2423 Is a good post from Shea as well, which looks bad on NSG. #2634 Is suspicious to me as I am pushing for CES, she states openness to Dunn. Compromising is a good skill, but not so early in the day. I felt it was out of place with her focus. NSG's #2528 has been going unexplained for a while. It feels like she stated that to appease me rather then to actually do anything with it. (She has said she wavered on him, and her read change back to TSQ is unexplained)

Action Dan: It seemed he tried to play more of a role during Day 1 then Day 2. He states that for him, this game is a town hunt since he's having trouble gaining scum reads. #1147 Yet, some of his town reads aren't that solid. I also get the feeling Action Dan is trying to stay under the radar, especially during Day 2. His #1698 felt weird, timing wise. This was after I voted Eddie, and Eddie had 5 votes at the time. Dan had wanted to give his snap feelings of the dueling wagons, and not that much else. Two things to note: In Political Corruption Mafia, he was more present then he was here, yet in our hydra game together, he was busy and I was the person mostly posting. (Yet, I had it down on lock) I would understand if he was really busy, but the comparison of presence between Day 1 and Day 2, is pretty visible. I think it's more likely he's scum who is having trouble scum reading town players and has to resort to 'town lists' and note that he did not give out a full reads list. Dan intends to continue pushing Dunn for using a crude defense mechanism while not casing anyone himself. Dan isn't really looking at the intent though, nor is he when he mentions Marquis not bringing up the read on me earlier. Dan comes back to defend himself to me when I am talking to Shea about him and Davsto. #2431 This is right before Quick unleashes an obtuse attack on Shea, which is a distraction from the real thing. I felt Dan was coming in only because there was attention going his way, as this happened after I was talking to Shea about him and Davsto. Now let's look at these quotes:

Spoiler: quotes

Action dan and davsto are very similar players to me in how they've played. Every time they post I think they're town, but neither of them are actually doing much to advance the game and they don't seem to care about who is voted and why. Like, they say they care, and they have opinions, but they are both doing very little to actually achieve the goals.

Nope. I totally get what shea is saying. It makes more sense as a personality trait than that they are necessarily Scummy. I'm somewhat of a psychology buff, who reads complicated shit regarding psychology in my free time.

In short, Shea's analysis was calm and composed and made sense. Quick's response was to discredit it saying it's a personality trait. I agree that Action Dan isn't really trying to progress the game for town. CES's #2715 is a good point on Action Dan, which shows that CES is paying attention and gives me slight town vibes.

This reminds me of a certain someone's post in another game:

#1461

Townies generally want to influence the game and lynch scum; elk and Aneninen both knew when deadline would be and what their choices were; I can't imagine just letting deadline pass by and let the rest of the game make that decision for me. Ank's unvote is a more extreme example of that since he was actually here but actively chose to limit his own influence.

Which is a very good point and I feel that really fits with Action Dan. (And NSG)

[Ranmaru]

SCUM [Action Dan > NSG > Quick | Marquis > Dunnstral | Davsto > Shea > CES > Lycanfire > Gamma > Ranmaru] TOWN

Unvote; Vote: Action Dan

This is the best chance at lynching scum today. We are throwing all claims that 'So and so would not pick scum' out the window because that is harming our reads. Look at the play of these individuals, look at my reads, and tell me, does it line up with pro-town play at all, then make a conclusion.

[Ranmaru]

In general, Action Dan and his scum team are planning to be in the back seat. Evidence shows that they will show up near deadline, and state plenty of town reads but not try to really narrow down suspects. I found this gem from a certain someone we know: #1461

Townies generally want to influence the game and lynch scum; elk and Aneninen both knew when deadline would be and what their choices were; I can't imagine just letting deadline pass by and let the rest of the game make that decision for me. Ank's unvote is a more extreme example of that since he was actually here but actively chose to limit his own influence.

Action dan and davsto are very similar players to me in how they've played. Every time they post I think they're town, but neither of them are actually doing much to advance the game and they don't seem to care about who is voted and why. Like, they say they care, and they have opinions, but they are both doing very little to actually achieve the goals.

This also makes sense with the night kills. Llama killed due to being obv town, and to frame CES/Shea mostly. (Although he had the lynch line of [CES AD LQ] anyway, which LQ had a problem with) Postie was killed due to low information factor, and to frame Dunnstral. It would also show that I was correct at the end of D2, but they would need my clout to push for them, when they sit in the background. It lines up with NSG's play, which is to seem like she's working with me, but doesn't actually try to sort CES (she still has a big reply to make to CES), and has some questions that she has ignored. (To Shea, to myself, etc) LQ remains active, omguses and remains obtuse to seem town, while pushing a scum win condition with confusion and distraction. They make the most sense as a team, together and make sense as scum individually. They all have been trying to get passes with the 'this person wouldn't pick scum' reason. At the very least I'm confident in Action Dan flipping scum today.

[Ranmaru]

Marquis

: If you are town, I think your reads are surface level. Yet, it makes sense since you are not engaged enough. At first I thought you may be scum trying to seem more town as me leaving your wagon gave you that opportunity to worm yourself back in. If you truly believe I am scum, I want you to know that I don't care if a lynch is easy or hard. I'm trying to find scum. I have voted Shea and Lycanfire, both players much harder to lynch then yourself. I would not consider CES an easy lynch, he only has a few votes behind him. I think if you were engaged enough, you'd know that I am obvious town and that I'm going to die tonight. One thing for sure is that I do think scum are trying to push confusion into the town, which is hurting the town. Once we find a scum today, we'll be able to make sense of it somehow. If you are town I want you to get your shit together after I die. Having read some of your games, I think you get lynched quite easily, so I'm less likely to go for you. I want you to take a whole hard look at my ISO, and then ask yourself if I am progressing the town win condition or scum win condition, and then think of which is more likely and why. From seeing your reasoning for your scum read on me, again, it looks surface level and you aren't reading deeply into intent. You need to work on that.

[Ranmaru]

With the Postienightkill, I'm also currently thinking that one potential purpose of it would be to make nsg look more town and thereby more clout to steer the lynch away from Marquis. Obviously, that does explicitly require Marquisscum but there are definitely scum teams for which that would make sense as a tactic (e.g. Marquis-nsg-Dunnstral). I think it's probably still more likely that it points to a relatively confident scum team (e.g. GE-AD-TSQ, but let's not actually entertain the possibility of Marquis being town if we can avoid it). I should do some calculations as a sanity check but it shouldn't matter too much Today either way - Marquis is the way forward.

Your #2715 is a solid point on Action Dan. Something else I have been considering is that Llama was killed to put suspicion towards CES / Shea. Postie kill to put suspicion on Dunnstral. I think a likely team is [Action Dan, Quick, NSG]. I've noted that NSG hasn't been as interested in sorting you as she states she would want

you

to be. She's not really active as much as I'd like, but her #2581 pinged me similar to an Earlier AD post: #1698. Her post, seems like she wasn't actively engaged yet she was reading through enough to know the vote count, and when Shea puts Marquis at L-1, she insists I unvote quickly! It just rubs me off the wrong way and it's very similar to AD. The team of [AD, Quick, NSG] Seems competent and confident enough to pick scum since people state that they each would pick town. Then Dan's #234 shows he believes Mulch picked scum over LQ or anyone else on his team. For LQ, I think this post and further interactions confirm LQ as scum: #2725. He keeps telling me 'this is what I do as town' yet he doesn't answer how what he is doing is helping town because he can't answer that. LQ is entirely progressing the scum win condition, not town win condition. If you can see with his persistent omgus on me, he is willing to put up a fight.

I don't even know where this charge on nsg comes from; I've definitely been engaging her (just in my last post I encouraged her to continue our main strand of conversation).

I actually agree that this looks bad on her.

[Ranmaru]

(I know I hate how people ignore my reads so I'll give LQ a pity fuck- 2410 is over the top to 2426 is accusing Shea of doing something he isn't doing... Though I suppose that by attacking Shea's premise "once you're caught you're dead" is also attacking the Marquis wagon? I just don't view any of this as actually town, so seeing this as an attack on Shea, or the credibility of the Marquis wagon all get outpaced by the idea that LQ is just trying to create uncertainty tomorrow.)

Thank you. Out of Marquis and CES, I'd choose CES. Yet, I don't think either may be scum at this point, and prefer an Action Dan lynch. I highly agree with what you said, and I think I understand why LQ stated all that. #2393 is the source of all of that. I thought it may be likely LQ and Shea were having a calculated fight to distance, since Shea just parked his vote on LQ while I was telling him to vote Dan. Thing is I got Shea to consider Dan/Davsto as likely scum and LQ went crazy from there. I know everyone is saying 'Dan and NSG are town because they wouldn't pick it!' yet it doesn't match up with their actions in thread. Nor does LQ's. I think this is likely throwing us all on the loop, while Dan/NSG are being sort of in the background. (While LQ is active)

[Ranmaru]

Dunnstral

: Vote Action Dan with me. You scum read him. Join me.

Marquis

: Vote Action Dan, you have him above me and Dunnstral. Join me.

CES

: You have him as null. (And you are questioning why you had town vibes from him) Realize you might be wrong on Marquis, but the same profile applies to Dan, but even more so as he has been very invisible.

Shea

: I was misguided with my read on you. Please sheep me once again, as LQ has confused me. I think this is our best shot at lynching scum.

Gamma

: Vote Dan with me.

Let us lynch Dan today.

[Ranmaru]

I don't see the scum intent in Dunn's posts, yet you continue to tunnel him while remaining in the background. I mean scum intent, scum motivation. Why does his 'crude defense' make him scum? You also refuse to look deeper into LQ's posts. You state his action is bizarre, but you never mention how it affects your read. Bizarre how? Bizarre in a scummy way, or townie way, and why? See. You are town reading your scum mates and they are town reading you, which is expected in this setup and makes sense.

[Ranmaru]

Lycanfire

: I also want you on this push. I think scum are killing in a way to let others do the work for them while they sit in the background. LQ votes Postie in his #1210 in a weird manner to stay off the wagon to keep his hands clean. NSG votes T-chill, but lurks after words and prod dodges: #707 #1030. No appearance before day end. No vote from Action Dan. Marquis too. D2 LQ is on Eddie's wagon because he believes Postie is bussing. So instead of pushing for Postie, he follows her push. While Action Dan and NSG wagon Dunnstral. Note that NSG held her vote until the EOD to start a counter wagon. I don't think she really intended for that vote to *do* anything.

Votecount 1.31

Srceenplay(8)

~ Thestatusquo, northsidegal, Dunnstral, Lycanfire, Llamarble, Ranmaru, Gamma Emerald, Cogito Ergo Sum

-- HAMMER

Postie(1)

~ LicketyQuickety

LicketyQuickety(1)

~ Davsto

EddieFenix(1)

~ Postie


Not Voting (3): Marquis, EddieFenix, ActionDan

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-05 21:00:00)

MOD NOTES

It seems there is a hammer according to my tool. I will be home to verify in 30 minutes-1 hour.

If it is indeed hammer I will PM saying it is night start and put the appropriate flip.

If it isn’t I will refund time accordingly.

For now locking the thread.

Votecount 2.14

EddieFenix(7)

~ Postie, Thestatusquo, Davsto, Cogito Ergo Sum, Lycanfire, LicketyQuickety, Ranmaru

-- HAMMER

Dunnstral(3)

~ ActionDan, Gamma Emerald, northsidegal

Marquis(2)

~ EddieFenix, Dunnstral

LicketyQuickety(1)

~ Marquis


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-18 19:30:00)

MOD NOTES

Will do day end wagon data and flavor stuff tonight when not dealing with the flu.

For now, night starts and lasts for 48 hours.

Night ends in (expired on 2018-02-16 11:04:39)

Eddie Felix was a

Vanilla Townie

.

[Ranmaru]

Ellibereth might be a neutral organizer of the event but our team has harnessed his power; we have learned the sacred scum hunting techniques and have inherited his scum prowess.

VOTE: Postie

This is an odd vote. I felt like it was a veiled chain saw.

[Ranmaru]

What does scum "intent" mean to you? If it means advancing a scum agenda, I'd say Dunn did his fair share pushing Tchill/Screenplay to lynch. And after that, lurking enough to not get noticed, is the motivation that describes most of his posts. I don't refuse to look deeper in LQ's posts. I've gone over them twice so far this game and thought he was town both times. A random post in 500 is not going to make me randomly reconsider if I don't think it's explicitly scummy, which that post isn't. Like it's bizarre because it's a post that's inexplicable. Who calls someone else a lying snake for something so innocuous as a theory post? It obviously doesn't increase a townread, it distracts from it, but it's not something I'd ever see and go "damn that's scummy" because it isn't that either.

you're acting if that's the end-all be-all when it isn't.

Lurking enough to not get noticed is also what you have been doing. Yet also town reading everyone. Your presence has been very very lacking, especially in Day 2 and Day 3. I think it's that town is generally towning so hard that it's hard for you to truly fake reads. I'm not ruling out that Dunn may be scum, but I'm more confident you are. LQ was using that argument to distract from Shea making a correct assessment on your and Davsto's play.

[Ranmaru]

Yeah I see you don't have a response to me.

I was typing up something towards Lycanfire. What's the purpose of this post?

[Ranmaru]

I want a sorted reads list from you now.

[Ranmaru]

Yet you don't even seem to change yours. I want to see your reads list now.

[Ranmaru]

I asked you because I wanted to know your thoughts on LQ's posts. I wanted a sorted reads list to see where your head is at. I'm not convinced by your Dunn case. Let me try another question: How do you feel LQ is trying to progress the town win condition since you believe he is town. Why do you have Gamma so low? Why have you never brought that read up to me if you were having doubts? I've posted meta, Shea has posted a meta case on Gamma. Have you looked at those? Now, I'm going to sleep. I've been up all night.

[Ranmaru]

Meaning: Since people believe you wouldn't pick scum, picking scum would fool everyone saying 'this person would not pick scum'. Which is why I state we are throwing all the 'this person wouldn't pick this' claim out the window. We are solely looking at in game actions.

[Ranmaru]

Ranmaru, since you like looking at scum teams so much, look at Marquis-Davsto then. It took Davsto 2 votes after voting me to give any sort of explanation and when he finally did, it was just a dressed up version of "CES is very suspicious of Marquis, maybe too suspicious". It's a ridiculously weak vote on a convenient target (if Davsto had given the reasons at the same time, you'd be left to wonder but I can definitely see Davstoscum deciding to vote me before having it fully worked out).

Pedit: I really need to write my posts faster.

Yes, I do agree that if Marquis is scum, Davsto is scum with him. I can see his concern with you asking to ISO Marquis with a conclusion already made for him. I have done this as well in the past. I did see it as 'Davsto is scum with Marquis and is attacking CES to avoid having to do the Marquis ISO'. I also am liking his questioning to LQ. I think your unwavering town read on LQ is hurting your reads as well. Now here is what I have found from your other games which I haven't seen as much here: You have been working with Regfan and Llama to find scum together, but not so sure if you have been doing as such here. The Shea explanation you elaborated on makes sense, so I will keep that in mind. The LQ read, we need to talk more about. We need to talk more about the Dan read. You said that Marquis fits the scum profile as you have seen in the game T-bone was scum, yet tell me about Dan, does he not fit the bill as well? Davsto's #2798 seems fair. I think I have a better assessment of Marquis then you right now. I have looked at his town and scum games and he gets lynched for the same thing. I think Davsto v CES right now is TvT. I am aware you said you feel scum are pushing your wagon but again, I feel scum are trying to avoid that attention this game. You are too passionate in your reads (others as well) to realize that the scum are just sitting back and letting town implode.

[Ranmaru]

Gamma

: I can see it as null since FrozenFlame did the same thing in the Crossover game. (Although in his case, he did it on purpose because he was trying to be as null as possible, as he was always a N1 kill in games so he lurked hard so he would be able to stay alive longer and have more influence on the game that way) Yet note that NSG prodded her way through the day and didn't appear. Tell me what you think of that.

[Ranmaru]

Quick, please answer Lycanfire's #2369.

[Ranmaru]

I just think it didn't stand out to me initially; it's not like I was scum reading him at the time. There were definitely times in D2 where I wavered and was close to switching back to Marquis.

Action Dan not trying to defend Eddie earlier shows that even though he has town reads, he isn't trying to help them live, he lets them die. Note that he also states he tries no to rely on others on his Gamma read, which I don't believe. (As I and Shea have posted Meta cases on him) and he doesn't really factor that into his read on him.

I suspect that's not really a helpful way of thinking about the 'marblekill. I imagine he would've been the default choice so if there's any info to be gleamed from it, it'd be in comparison to another choice of kill (e.g. the fact that they didn't kill Postie N1 may have been a deliberate attempt to let her get her hands dirty pushing the Eddiewagon).

Fair enough. Yet letting her live to push Eddie supports my claim that scum would rather her push first and then after she's done, kill her for a low information kill. (Especially since I feel I was 2/4 at the time) In my: #2352 I state that I think Postie was killed because she fulfilled her purpose, to do work for the scum that couldn't do it themselves, and to frame suspicion on Dunn. Again, She was also a low information kill. Generally I think we can agree on that, as you did say you were worried that she was killed over more townier targets.

We know Mulch did actually pick scum though. (Sheepsaysmeep also getting stuck with a scum role and not acquitting himself that well with is probably a slight point against LQ, but the role madness game is also basically the opposite of this game, so we should go with 'marble's maxim of set-up preference over alignment preference.)

Fair enough, I'll drop that point. Yet I still stand behind not letting a person's preference taint our reads.

[Ranmaru]

To save you time Gamma:

as for why i've been gone i don't really have an answer, every time i go to start a post i either don't or i start something and then delete it for being too bad

[Ranmaru]

Posts NSG has not responded to: #2423, #2629, #355

ces i've had a relatively large response half-typed up for a bit, will try to finish that soon.

Post has never been finished. Responds to Gamma's #355 but doesn't answer his question: #376

[Ranmaru]

I'm also still waiting on her reads list.

[Ranmaru]

What I find more suspicious is that you were right that her CES vote didn't really seem to have any backing to it, you ask, and she ignores the question. So: NSG, why did you vote CES in the very beginning?

[Ranmaru]

Can you elaborate on why she remains a town lean? I'm just curious in seeing your point of view.

[Ranmaru]

NSG

: Why did you vote CES in your #333? Also provide your reads list after you answer.

[Ranmaru]

I'm fine with this. [Action Dan, NSG, Quick] are my pool of lynches I am ok with today.

Unvote; Vote: NSG

[Ranmaru]

NSG, answer the question. Why did you vote CES in your #333?

[Ranmaru]

NSG: Gamma asked you, and you selectively quoted him to respond to his self-meta point but ignored the Gamma question. #376 Follow-up question: Why did you ignore Gamma's question?

[Ranmaru]

what question? the cogito ergo sum vote one? that was a long time ago – i have no clue what to tell you.

Go re-read, and try to remember. This is important. Also, where is the CES post you were making?

[Ranmaru]

NSG is still leaning too much on her team mates because she's having a hard time faking reads. Otherwise she'd be fine with posting a reads list.

[Ranmaru]

Why did you delete it? Also, explain your TSQ and Quick reads. You still need to answer to that as well.

[Ranmaru]

Gamma I'm telling you, Quick is scum trying to deflect. Simple as.

[Ranmaru]

NSG

: Why did you delete it? Also, explain your TSQ and Quick reads. You still need to answer to that as well.

[Ranmaru]

Why do you find no point in giving a reads list? I also want to see you respond to this: #2018

[Ranmaru]

NSG: You deleted your post towards CES. Why did you think the post was bad, can you go into the gist of it? Are you still confident in your read on CES now?

[Ranmaru]

don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him.

No better than random is the

literal definition

of a null read.

even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.

I feel like you're just trying to find new ways to making it seem like I had a big read change; it's just not true. I detailed exactly the nature of my read change in #1596; do you think I should not have been willing to hammer Screenplay at a time when no better lynch was forthcoming?

i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you.

Getting the right people lynched is how you win, so that does tend to be my focus, yes. I tried to engage with Eddie, I've been trying to understand where you're coming from (I'd still like a response to the busywork question), but at the end of the day that sort of stuff is only interesting as far it changes who I want to read. I'm here to win the game, not for brownie points.

especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.

I know this is a concept floating for some reason but this is actually the completely opposite of how it works. Eddie (and Postie) flipping town simply makes it more likely that Marquis is scum - there's only 3 scum and quite a few people look townie to various degrees so it's only become more likely that Marquis is scum. If you're looking for someone and there's 2 man-sized bushes, it's 50-50 they're in the first one but if the first bush is empty, then it's very likely Marquis is hiding in the other one.

I'm also currently in a reread but that's admittedly going fairly slowly - figuring out scum #2 doesn't seem quite as important as getting scum #1 lynched.

[Ranmaru]

Here, is where as town, you'd admit you were wrong, and re-evaluate. Yet you stick to your guns and can't seem to write anything because you know he is right. He defended himself well. You still being confident on CES doesn't make sense alongside that.

[Ranmaru]

I want everyone in town (especially those town reading Quick) to look at #2725, and then explain how Quick is progressing the town win condition over the scum win condition.

[Ranmaru]

Quick: How does that affect your read on NSG? Would you vote her now?

[Ranmaru]

Gamma is not dumb, he's making good points. (That I in fact would not have thought of) Gamma's town.

[Ranmaru]

Here, is where as town, you'd admit you were wrong, and re-evaluate. Yet you stick to your guns and can't seem to write anything because you know he is right. He defended himself well. You still being confident on CES doesn't make sense alongside that.

NSG: What is your response to this?

[Ranmaru]

Better question: Do you think CES was right (or wrong) in his #2534? Do you agree with what he is saying or disagree?

[Ranmaru]

I disagree with what he's saying.

Why? Elaborate.

[Ranmaru]

Here, is where as town, you'd admit you were wrong, and re-evaluate. Yet you stick to your guns and can't seem to write anything because you know he is right. He defended himself well. You still being confident on CES doesn't make sense alongside that.

This is actually a good solid point.

You make a lot of noise, but sometime you really make sense.

Then how does that affect your read on NSG? Would you vote her?

[Ranmaru]

I don't remember asking about you voting Shea.

[Ranmaru]

So, how does that affect your read on NSG, since you say I make a solid point and am making sense.

[Ranmaru]

NSG: Still waiting on that reply.

[Ranmaru]

Quick continues to distract.

[Ranmaru]

This video is for Quick, NSG, and Action Dan.

[Ranmaru]

NSG

: You state that CES isn't trying to sort people but by your refusing to post a reads list soon, and by deleting your post towards him, it shows you don't really have anything to continue your push, nor are you interested in getting an understanding from him. You say you disagree with the push, but you feel that what you have to say is bad. You cannot elaborate on it when I ask, your silence is telling. Plus you still remain confident in CES, which doesn't make sense if you can't even respond to his rebuttal. The original post where you vote CES #2526 is refuted, yet you A) Keep your vote on him and B) have nothing to say when he rightly refutes it.

CES, Shea, Lycanfire, Davsto

: Thoughts on this.

[Ranmaru]

I need more votes on NSG.

[Ranmaru]

A reads list is literally sorting people in a list, explaining why you feel the way you feel about them.

Sort Definition: arrange systematically in groups; separate according to type, class, etc.

[Ranmaru]

If you can respond to CES's #2534, do it now. (Since you say it's not that you aren't able to elaborate)

[Ranmaru]

Votecount 3.11

Cogito Ergo Sum(3)

~ Lycanfire(33), Davsto(18), northsidegal(56)

northsidegal(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(91), Ranmaru(???) LicketyQuickety(227)

Marquis(2)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum(22), Thestatusquo(66)

Dunnstral(2)

~ ActionDan(30), Marquis(23)


Not Voting (1): Dunnstral(10)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

MOD REMINDERS

Thestatusquo needs a prod. The last post was at: 2/23/2018 1:30:00 PM
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Performed 16 calls in 208 seconds. With an average of 13.0529375 seconds per call.

[Ranmaru]

I've literally tried to encourage you and motivate you but when a wagon goes your away, you suddenly appear and are more present then ever, just as Dan was. I've literally tried to encourage Quick but he hasn't replied to my #2350, yet he also says the same thing when I ask him what he has done to progress the town win condition. I still want your updated reads list. You state that you feel a reads list is only a list of *pre-existing* reads yet that is not true. A reads list is a list of how you are *currently* feeling in the moment about the cast, not how you felt about them in the past. Please make that now.

[Ranmaru]

With reasoning please. Similar to how I make my reads list.

[Ranmaru]

Quick: A reads list forces a player to give their feelings on the whole cast. Since scum have to fake reads, it forces them to fake their reads if they are scum. That's why I continue to ask for reads lists. For example, you attacked Davsto early on for seeming to have a weak reads list, when you actually just skimmed it and was more intent on discrediting him over actually reading his content.

[Ranmaru]

Stop wasting my time.

I asked for a reads list with reasoning. That is still required from you.

[Ranmaru]

explain what's "busywork" about it? of course i think having someone else to talk to about my reads with his helpful, and he's noticed some things that i haven't picked up on.

why ask this question?

When I say busywork, I mean the requests in #2266. I guess that may not have been entirely clear. I ask because you seemed to be taking the role of neutral messenger rather than someone who was involved in the discussion so I was trying to find out where you stood. When I'm town I rarely anyone ask a question without wondering a) whether the question is really worth taking up our attention and b) how best to ask it to get an appropriately detailed answer. I probably am more strict in that than most people but this still felt like a prime opportunity for that type of reflection.

This is CES's busy work question and explanation.

[Ranmaru]

Regfan would agree that giving reads lists is optimal: [#487]

Townies generally want to influence the game and lynch scum; elk and Aneninen both knew when deadline would be and what their choices were; I can't imagine just letting deadline pass by and let the rest of the game make that decision for me. Ank's unvote is a more extreme example of that since he was actually here but actively chose to limit his own influence.

CES: How do you feel about Action Dan wrt this quote? #1461

[Ranmaru]

We have four days left until deadline so we need to be thinking of who the lynch for today shall be. Read my Game Winning Reads. My lynch pool is [Action Dan, NSG, Quick]. Start thinking about your lynch pools if you haven't really given any, discuss and start moving towards a lynch. I'm going to sleep, good night. I will generally be working in the evenings this week.

[Ranmaru]

Not at all, no. Davsto is stated as slight town just above the null line (Where Marquis and Dunnstral are). You asked me about the NSG read, it's in that post too. I'd like to hear your thoughts on that. Good night.

[Ranmaru]

Hey Shea. Recent pages: I push Action Dan, and NSG, and LQ does his distraction thing again. I think your biggest mistake is town reading him. I want us to talk through that read. Especially the counter wagon thing. Since I pushed his wagon D1 especially. I think everyone has to make sense of LQ's whole play or otherwise he will destroy the towns chances of being able to rationally find scum with his noise.

[Ranmaru]

Since you town read him, you let your guard down and let him rile you up. I also highly dislike his recent push on Gamma. You see, LQ is trying his best to snipe my town reads whatever chance he can get. Then when I make a sensible push, he goes back to you. Coincidence? I think not.

I am happy to see you on the NSG wagon.

[Ranmaru]

I think he pushed you in that way because he knows the reaction he'd get, which is getting him town-read. He tried to push Gamma based on my strong town read of him. I think he is confident enough in himself to put up a fight, but note that every time I had pushed him, he directly countered with an omgus. (Which is respectable) I don't see him actually progressing the town win condition in any way. He doesn't try to work with me, he only puts up the appearance of working with me (voting NSG when she doesn't answer to one of my questions) yet notice he doesn't stick to it nor does he have a solid conclusion for moving his vote from NSG to you. He's scum. Now if you still think he's town I highly implore you and others ignore him and his vote and never wagon with him. I want his throat crushed. If you think he's town then I feel after NSG flipping scum, the best course of action for you and others that think Quick is town is to highly consider Action Dan. Now, for things I feel you should read:

#2760 #2762 #2764 #2765

I want everyone in town (especially those town reading Quick) to look at #2725, and then explain how Quick is progressing the town win condition over the scum win condition.

[Ranmaru]

I post that. I'm confident all three of you are scum. You should know, I was your hydra partner and was just as confident in that game too and influenced the game to the point we found scum, so I don't see how you are that confused I'd post such a video towards you, and I have posted that video before. (It's my favorite video to show to scum I'm confident in)

[Ranmaru]

What I mean is, Quick isn't able to show what good he has done for the town because he isn't willing to answer to it.

[Ranmaru]

Not really, I didn't lead any mislynches that game or this game, I have contributed to them this game though, and was wrong. I was 2/3 in our hydra game, had an argument with TTH/Cask, Elusive, Rubicon, etc. Mostly it was thanks to those three, KMD, REM, etc, us all working together to find the scum that was Sala / Hiplop / Farside. (Yes, Teddy too) Now in this game, I want you to explain how you think I

lead

both mislynches. Why are you offering yourself for NSG but not for Eddie? Also, why are you stating NSG is town without actually responding to my reasoning for why she is scum?

[Ranmaru]

Also why no comment on Gamma's posts since you have him low in your list. Since you are focusing on town hunting, I would think that would be an important thing to consider.

[Ranmaru]

I agree, but I think we should stick to NSG for now. Tell me what you think of Action Dan's #2937.

[Ranmaru]

Also note that NSG had delayed a response with her #1 scumread and it took three votes for her to be motivated enough to respond. It shows she has little interest in determining alignment as she would like to appear to be.

[Ranmaru]

Shea I would like a response with reference to our LQ conversation. Those were good observations brought up by Gamma, I would like AD to explain himself on those.

[Ranmaru]

I also want to note that AD was more focused on undermining my position rather then talk to me why he feels NSG is not a viable lynch for today. The evidence is clear.

[Ranmaru]

Yes, Shea. Thank you.

[Ranmaru]

Dan has suddenly gone silent. NSG, give me a moment.

[Ranmaru]

NSG: I think she's scum due to fence sitting, lacking presence, and not committing to the Eddie wagon without a stance on it. She states her lack of motivation was due to having bad posts, but I never got that feeling, and she was never pressured. I certainly think that she is more likely scum who actually lost interest in keeping up. She posts in other games and seems to have more energy for those and leaves this in the back burner. She also hasn't seemed to re-evaluate her CES read, she seems to be more harping on him and trying to find anything she can on him rather then actually try to determine his alignment. #1963 || I began to reconsider and think if maybe she had a point. My concern is that she doesn't seem as eager to talk with CES as she would expect him to be (since she says he isn't sorting). This looks very bad on her. She's putting off the most important thing, and that's interacting with her main scum read. It takes myself calling her out to get her in thread. Her #2581 pinged me in a similar way to Action Dan's post after I voted Eddie. (Which put Eddie at 5 votes) #2423 Is a good post from Shea as well, which looks bad on NSG. #2634 Is suspicious to me as I am pushing for CES, she states openness to Dunn. Compromising is a good skill, but not so early in the day. I felt it was out of place with her focus. NSG's #2528 has been going unexplained for a while. It feels like she stated that to appease me rather then to actually do anything with it. (She has said she wavered on him, and her read change back to TSQ is unexplained)

[Ranmaru]

i'm pretty sure there was like a 12 to 24 hour gap between me saying i'd make that response and you flipping out on me. like, i went to bed one day and then i woke up and found your readslist flipped upside down again. you can't imply a causal relationship between the two things.

Which you state you deleted, and said was bad, even though you said you were still confident in your CES read.

[Ranmaru]

don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him.

No better than random is the

literal definition

of a null read.

even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.

I feel like you're just trying to find new ways to making it seem like I had a big read change; it's just not true. I detailed exactly the nature of my read change in #1596; do you think I should not have been willing to hammer Screenplay at a time when no better lynch was forthcoming?

i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you.

Getting the right people lynched is how you win, so that does tend to be my focus, yes. I tried to engage with Eddie, I've been trying to understand where you're coming from (I'd still like a response to the busywork question), but at the end of the day that sort of stuff is only interesting as far it changes who I want to read. I'm here to win the game, not for brownie points.

especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.

I know this is a concept floating for some reason but this is actually the completely opposite of how it works. Eddie (and Postie) flipping town simply makes it more likely that Marquis is scum - there's only 3 scum and quite a few people look townie to various degrees so it's only become more likely that Marquis is scum. If you're looking for someone and there's 2 man-sized bushes, it's 50-50 they're in the first one but if the first bush is empty, then it's very likely Marquis is hiding in the other one.

I'm also currently in a reread but that's admittedly going fairly slowly - figuring out scum #2 doesn't seem quite as important as getting scum #1 lynched.

Here, is where as town, you'd admit you were wrong, and re-evaluate. Yet you stick to your guns and can't seem to write anything because you know he is right. He defended himself well. You still being confident on CES doesn't make sense alongside that.

NSG

: You state that CES isn't trying to sort people but by your refusing to post a reads list soon, and by deleting your post towards him, it shows you don't really have anything to continue your push, nor are you interested in getting an understanding from him. You say you disagree with the push, but you feel that what you have to say is bad. You cannot elaborate on it when I ask, your silence is telling. Plus you still remain confident in CES, which doesn't make sense if you can't even respond to his rebuttal. The original post where you vote CES #2526 is refuted, yet you A) Keep your vote on him and B) have nothing to say when he rightly refutes it.

CES, Shea, Lycanfire, Davsto

: Thoughts on this.

[Ranmaru]

NSG, tell me your thoughts on Action Dan and Quick right now.

[Ranmaru]

I also still want explanations on your reads, and you said you would have Math give a reads list too.

[Ranmaru]

I'm going to prepare for work. I will try to have quick posts at work, more in depth responses after work tonight.

[Ranmaru]

A50 would bet the tournament on you being town. I disagree, I think you are relying heavily on the preference to try to clear yourself. I am asking your thoughts on AD and quick because I am willing to compromise to them today.

[Ranmaru]

Can you explain your reasons for your reads on Action Dan and Quick? I listened to A50 and Cheeky and town read you for quite a while and you did not do much with it. I do strongly scum read you, AD, and Quick.

[Ranmaru]

I think I said Action Dan and his team were likely to have sat back and defend while staying in the background. Yet I am mostly pushing based on individual suspicion. I think I am more right on NSG / LQ then Dan. I need you to stop thinking of team composition and think about in game play. Your reads need more then just 'meta'.

[Ranmaru]

Can you elaborate on the creature thing.

[Ranmaru]

A50 said Dan takes scum.

[Ranmaru]

NSG: You aren't looking at posts of Action Dan due to team comp and preference, you aren't looking at quick due to meta which is based on one specific newbie game, you scum read Shea based on team comp. I also am still waiting on Math reads.

[Ranmaru]

I will ask him. Dan, why did you not continue the conversation from two oages ago? Also, I want you to talk to me on my reasons for suspecting NSG.

[Ranmaru]

I am mobile right now. If you want to post a chart here, go ahead. Then you will have to prove mathmatically why you have not received a scum role pm. (But not sure on the rules on that) More later, driving to work.

[Ranmaru]

I am mobile right now. If you want to post a chart here, go ahead. Then you will have to prove mathmatically why you have not received a scum role pm. (But not sure on the rules on that) More later, driving to work.

Ok so this is a really bizarre post.

Explain. I state I am going to work, will make some quick responses. I can't examine team composition right now, but she can take the time to chart it out or convey it in a legal manner if she wants to have me reconsider. I am the only team mate alive in my team. Mostly just A50 and myself. I have not made a chart of team composition reads to see how they fit nor am I sure if it confirms anothers alignment, and neither am I sure of the math of it. A50 has made a chart, but it was long ago and I am more up to date on this thread then he is. I have simply been focusing on in-game actions.

[Ranmaru]

Probality is not my forte. She is pressing for a response, I would expect her to try to convince me in some way, while I am busy. Are you referring to burden of proof? Me asking her to prove she did not receive one would not be fair in that case. I should have asked her to explain why it should matter so much and what the chances are *a person may or may not be scum*.

[Ranmaru]

That is fair, and I will drop that. I honestly do not know why it should be brought up as a defense if that is the case. Shea, what do you think of people basing reads solely on team comp?

[Ranmaru]

Shea, get back to me on the Quick post.

CES, I had NSG respond to your post. Talk to me about her and my lynch pool.

Will get back to others (Dan, NSG) tonight.

[Ranmaru]

You said you were skimming, have you read the posts I linked to you to help you out?

[Ranmaru]

It's busy but I'll be home in like 5 hours.

[Ranmaru]

post 2979: NSG, in general, I felt that it didn't seem like you were as interested in sorting due to not interacting as much with CES. Is it really my fault that you hadn't responded to him? Now, as town, have you ever decided to delete posts because you thought they were bad? Or is this the first time? Fair enough on you doing that to avoid lynch bait being lynched. I was just a bit miffed at trying to get people to vote CES and then your comment would split attention from the wagon. Fair enough on the TSQ read. A50 states you are %100 town due to team composition reads. Yes, I ignored my team mate because I was very confident in this read. I did dislike you not responding to CES, but your post to him didn't seem that bad, in retrospect. I'm wondering why he didn't reply. A50 states he'd rather I go back to one of Marquis/CES, and he chooses Marquis since he thinks his push on me was bad, and that Bins should know that as well, including SK. (Since A50 didn't take this slot) Yet I still prefer CES if it were between the two of them. My scumread on you, and my confidence overall, is wavering. I apologize if I've demotivated you, I am quite harsh with my scumreads, especially those I am extremely confident in. In general, my biggest concerns was the delay in responses, and not really answering some questions. I'm going to chalk it up to inexperience. I do remember that I myself, got flack from asking questions as town (from regfan actually) but not following up. I feel this is what I may be picking up on. I really want to ask: Why do you ignore questions anyway? Finally, I think it's a big mistake for you to simply look at team composition only for you to base reads. As I have said, I haven't really been doing that myself, I have simply been focusing on in-game actions.

Unvote

Btw Ran, KMD's been behind on this game, heard who you think the scumteam is and said something along the lines of "oh god, ran is better than that."

@Tsq – quote that for me, please?

Can you tell him to get his butt caught up so I can see more of his feed back? Mathdino too.

[Ranmaru]

@Ranmaru,

Does part of the reason that you see the Scum team as Dan/North/me because we are all defending each other?

Yes, partly that, and partly due to NSG and Action being a bit lurky. I really disliked your push mid-day when I was talking to Shea about Dan and Davsto, but I'm trying to reconsider that you may have just really town readed them as much as I do Gamma.

[Ranmaru]

That's nice but I barely remember our hydra game together, it was years ago, and I'm pretty sure I flaked out. The Political corruption mafia game you keep bringing up to meta me is like 4+ years old too I think.

Tell me, you said you had the scum on lock. Did you lead two mislynches two days in a row, then flip your reads lists a half dozen times then finally propose a 3-man scum team without flips and were right?

Because I highly doubt it. But here's your opportunity to prove me wrong.

Dan, you never actually continued this conversation. I wanted to see how you would reply. Basically, in that game I was wrong at times but in the end I was able to come out right. Usually it takes me a few fights and arguments to sort people via interactions with myself, and then that's when I find scum. Now you are asking me if I lead two mislynches in a row. I contributed to the Screenplay mislynch, that is true. It was mostly Llama/Shea/Myself. Eddie, was lead by Postie. I was only the fifth vote at first, and then you came in and posted and I interacted with you, then I voted other suspects in the same day before finally hammering Eddie. Now, if you are concerned about this, why have you not asked Shea the same question?

VOTE: EddieFenix

I think that LQ being scum mostly makes sense from the perspective of tchill being scum. If tchill isn't scum a lot of LQs actions on that wagon look a lot better.

Willing to throw some muscle behind postie's push. I think the case makes a lot of sense.

Not really wanting to go after marquis. But if he tries to lurk through this day too I want him to eat rope really quick.

Tell me your thoughts on this post.

[Ranmaru]

Well, that's a depressing Vote Count. My desire to lynch Dunnstral is approximately zero and I'm not really interested in following up a Postiekill with a nsglynch (there's absolutely things about her that bother me but it also really feels there's a good chance we're just creating an unnecessary mislynch).

Can we just go back to Marquis? He suggested working with me but he's gone almost 3 days without answering my question now. This is a good lynch and I'm not letting it go.

CES, from this post I don't really get the feeling you are trying to be as accurate as I would have hoped. What is your lynch pool right now? I thought you said you were going to try to work with me a bit more.

We need to talk more about the Dan read. You said that Marquis fits the scum profile as you have seen in the game T-bone was scum, yet tell me about Dan, does he not fit the bill as well? Davsto's #2798 seems fair. I think I have a better assessment of Marquis then you right now. I have looked at his town and scum games and he gets lynched for the same thing.

I looked at ActionDan's iso with that question in mind and the answer really is no. AD often sounds like he's talking for himself, without any specific audience in mind, he sounds wonkish at times but I just don't get the feeling from his posts that he's making them with the purpose of looking town, which is the crux of the affair. If you look at Marquis' posts with the profile of competent but lurky scum that does their best to look town in mind, then his posts make more sense; it's not the same with AD. I also looked at some Marquis games that he got lynched in and he mostly just seemed to post fluff? Admittedly a knock against my "Marquis is competent" stance but he's not playing this game incompetently anyway. If there's specific town games of his where his play was similar to this, you can link them to me but otherwise I don't see any reason to change my mind.

P-edit: I did appreciate that and I've been meaning to respond to nsg's post but this is it for tonight, I'm afraid.

Is responding to her not a priority to you? I'm confused as to why you bring up observations on Action Dan and NSG but don't follow through. I want to see your reads list, you said you'd give that out on Sunday. If you are short on time, tell me your reads on NSG and Action Dan right now. How's your read on Shea developing?

[Ranmaru]

The reason there isn't a lot to go on for Dunnstral is that there isn't a lot there. He was most active (which is a huge overstatement) D1, with most notably presenting and pushing a T-chill scum meta case.

He's still very likely scum from what he has posted that isn't part of the above.

right which is why I'm still scum reading, but I was expecting to read his posts and go "yeah, this is scum and this is why" but instead I read his posts and I just kind of went "meh."

I'm just reexplaining for captain "hey you ignored me/didn't respond to me/didn't post this thing" when I did do those things over there.

OK. Let's ask a question to Shea:

Do you really think that your answer on why you haven't done pretty much anything with Dunn this entire game is at all satisfying?

@Ran I would happily kill either LQ or Tchill. Right now there is a wagon on one of them and not on the other. I have pretty high confidence in my scum reads on both of them, so I don't see why it makes sense for me to switch over to LQ at this time unless the wagon moved over there for some reason independent of me.

But quoting this, because I can.

These are good points and you are making sense for once. I think I was totally wrong on you, I just felt like you were doing your best to create noise and distract.

Ran has been pulling this stuff all game. Basically, a huge percentage of what he says is voiced through a confirmationbiased language. He latches onto an idea and then fills in the gaps to fit his own misguided narrative. It's pretty fucking obvious given how often his hit list changes.

Is it really that confirmationbiased? I think I try not to be, but if you feel it's a problem, I'm willing to try to fix that. Please show me where you see this and I'll try to be less confbiased. Yet, I've been trying to be open to my reads changing more so then previous games, it's why my reads do change quite a bit. I'm going to give my feelings overall of my next pool because I don't have time to make another big reads list. I will admit that sometimes I get confident, and the ones I get confident about don't turn out to be scum sometimes. (Yet last game off-site, that wasn't the case, I let scum slip) Sometimes the ones I do consider but am more 'meh' about turn out to be scum, and I am feeling that may be the likely case here.

[Ranmaru]

Here's how I'm feeling right now:

Shea seems to have skimmed and only cared to look at my one mobile post, instead of talking to me about the posts I linked to him or my read on Quick. I get the feeling he's simply stuck on a lynch line without really trying to reconsider based on new information. (Like action dan coming in thread and doing a big vouch for NSG) I did not like his tone. I did like the quotes that Quick brought up, which includes him strongly scum reading Quick, but D2, he simply prioritizes Eddie over LQ and then he never reconsiders. Today he isn't really doing as much and his pool isn't that good. (I would say NSG would be the only one that would be legitimate since I and others did have concerns with her, the others are more just lynch bait right now) He simply has focused on skimming and didn't seem as interested in reading the posts I linked to him until prodded to do so. I feel like he talked about Action Dan and Davsto being possible scum yet he doesn't even consider it for today before his pool, which doesn't really look like narrowing down to the most optimal lynch that can find scum.

I expected a little more from CES, I don't get the feeling that he's willing to compromise since he doesn't show a pool. His posts today are a little bit under-whelming. I also don't understand why he'd give observations of NSG and Action Dan (that seem to be concerns) but he doesn't really follow up with them nor shows interested in following up with NSG. I want to point out that in the other game he was more hyper, more intent on the words 'victory' but hasn't really said that as much here.

I dislike Action Dan's #2937. Again, it seemed he was more inclined to focus on undermining my position, and defending NSG hard without actually focusing on town hunting, since he has Gamma in a low null (?) position that he is not willing to talk to me about. Plus I find it odd he doesn't question Shea on his vote on Eddie.

My lynch pool is now [Shea, CES, Action Dan].

Vote: CES

[Ranmaru]

And Ranmaru said he wasn't going to change who he was voting. He's completely temperamental! Instead of him getting a better and better idea of who is Scum, he instead changes his reads wildly depending on his whim. In short, he's not the type of player you want to follow/sheep.

Look here. I'm doing my best to be as accurate as possible. That's why I keep changing my reads. I want you to explain how I'm not getting a better and better idea who is scum. I'm trying to make sure we get the correct lynch since this is white flag. We have nothing helping us win but finding the actual scum. I liked your recent postings. I'm willing to wagon Shea with you if we can get the support. I want you to talk to me about CES and Action Dan.

[Ranmaru]

I'm going to sleep now. I'll be posting from work mostly tomorrow as well, and will be posting around the same time after work. Good night.

[Ranmaru]

Dan, you never actually continued this conversation. I wanted to see how you would reply. Basically, in that game I was wrong at times but in the end I was able to come out right. Usually it takes me a few fights and arguments to sort people via interactions with myself, and then that's when I find scum. Now you are asking me if I lead two mislynches in a row. I contributed to the Screenplay mislynch, that is true. It was mostly Llama/Shea/Myself. Eddie, was lead by Postie. I was only the fifth vote at first, and then you came in and posted and I interacted with you, then I voted other suspects in the same day before finally hammering Eddie. Now, if you are concerned about this, why have you not asked Shea the same question?

If you actually cared much you'd link the game. And you're never going to be right when you don't have either of Marquis or Dunnstral in your lynchpool, and have me instead. I still don't believe that in a game where you said "I have scum on lock" could even resemble anything close to this game where you absolutely don't. And you changed your reads lists (for the better since NSG isn't there anymore) again so the whole "It's you!" "I'm right, I've got them on lock this time" is clearly false, and I'm going to bet it'll change again and again. Yes? Yes.

You're right you didn't lead both directly, others were first and in the foreground, but you did cheerlead both; screenplay was always a top-3 scum read and Eddie went 2nd->4th->1st in scum reads. In response to your whataboutism with Shea, unlike you he didn't attempt to base his entire read on me by blaming me for his part in mislynching Eddie.

I was more interested in your response about your mislynch angle rather then needing you to see our game we played. If you were really interested in determining my alignment you'd go to my wiki or your own if you update it. In my last game with Gamma, I have done the exact same thing I did here, over there. He can vouch. Yes, I have changed my reads list. Yes, I'm wrong sometimes. I'm human. So then what is your actual concern? You ask me if I lead them, I say no. I scum read Screenplay and Eddie, yes. As did others, as usual when a person agrees and joins a lynch. The shea point isn't the basis of my read of you.

Like my read is really based on the two things that I laid out on LQ. I just don't think they outweigh the reasons I am town reading him. Apparently you are now town reading his as well, as your lynch pool is now me CES and Dan?

Like why are you scum reading me now because you seem to have agreed with me on the point I am trying to make that LQ is town?

My concerns with you are based on Day 2 and Day 3. Day 2 you stick to Eddie the whole time without really doing much else. It seems like you didn't really care to continue your read on LQ since you had the easy mislynch of Eddie. Day 3 your pool hasn't really changed from Day 2. It's remained static. It doesn't seem like you are trying to help town actually narrow down lynches to be accurate, especially since you said your case on Dunn was based on gut, mostly.

[Ranmaru]

Action Dan Scum

:

1. Little presence D1, tiny presence D2, D3 present when a light under his ass is sparked. #2937
2. Shows a survivalist instinct. #2431
3. States he is focusing on town hunting but doesn't look into Gamma at all. #1147

Scum motivation: Action Dan can't fake any scum reads and can only push lynchbait. So he stays as invisible as possible and lets others push mislynches for him. His motivation for his mislynch angle on me is to deflect pressure from his own slot, as I made a big push for him. If that had not happened, he would be contempt with my slot. Otherwise, if he truly had a concern, he'd bring it up much sooner. #2746 Shows that he is only intent on talking about Dunn, Marquis, or CES. (Him and partly his team mates) If he truly had a concern with me he'd bring it up there. The only change is I'm a threat to his slot, therefore he tries his best to undermine my slot and fails.

Town motivation: I see no town motivation from Dan. He focuses on town hunting, but yet doesn't actually try to do it when it comes to a slot he has as null or low in his sorted reads list. #2778 He says he has no concrete opinion of Gamma in his #1698 and says he will re-read him, but he isn't even caring to sort him now. He doesn't seem to be trying to progress the town win condition. He's let others do the work for him, and now he's omgusing my push on him. He isn't trying to influence the game positively to find scum.

[Ranmaru]

CES

: Join me. You scum read him as well.

Marquis

: Join me. You have him above Dunn and Myself.

Lycanfire

: Join me.

Dunnstral

: Join me, you scumread Action Dan.

Unvote; Vote: Action Dan

[Ranmaru]

Also, I don't think that someones lynch pool remaining mostly static is a scum tell in any way. I think the same people are scum that I thought were scum yesterday. For the same reasons. Not much has changed in that regard imo.

I also don't really even think its true. I went into the day with LQ still on my lynch list and then he came out with that bizarre attack on you gamma and me and I think that absolutely 100% doesn't come from scum, so I took him off my lynch pool. I went into day 2 with davsto in my lynch pool and then reevaluated based off of his play. Earlier today you asked me what I thought of the slot and I reevaluated again because his play today hasn't really been townie at all.

I had dan as null with a potential to lean scum but now that his posting has increased I see a lot of townie things in those posts.

What are your reasons for suspecting Marquis again? I want you to comment on my #3112 and how it affects your read on Dan. Tell me why you are town reading him as well.

[Ranmaru]

I see you're running out of room to find reasons to scum read me, now relying on me not getting/producing a read on Gamma. That's fine you can continue to do that, as well as saying Gamma is low/null when that's not the nature of my views towards him. Nor is he anywhere close to a priority today.

Most of my reasons come from the original read I gave here: #2760. I state that most of your town reads aren't that solid even though you are town hunting. This lines up with you not caring to analyze Gamma and I have progression of asking about Gamma with you. I've also mentioned your presence being very minor, until a wagon was looming your way. The only new information in my read is A) Your disingenuous push on me. That's it.

[Ranmaru]

Action Dan Scum

:

1. Little presence D1, tiny presence D2, D3 present when a light under his ass is sparked. #2937
2. Shows a survivalist instinct. #2431
3. States he is focusing on town hunting but doesn't look into Gamma at all. #1147

Scum motivation: Action Dan can't fake any scum reads and can only push lynchbait. So he stays as invisible as possible and lets others push mislynches for him. His motivation for his mislynch angle on me is to deflect pressure from his own slot, as I made a big push for him. If that had not happened, he would be contempt with my slot. Otherwise, if he truly had a concern, he'd bring it up much sooner. #2746 Shows that he is only intent on talking about Dunn, Marquis, or CES. (Him and partly his team mates) If he truly had a concern with me he'd bring it up there. The only change is I'm a threat to his slot, therefore he tries his best to undermine my slot and fails.

Town motivation: I see no town motivation from Dan. He focuses on town hunting, but yet doesn't actually try to do it when it comes to a slot he has as null or low in his sorted reads list. #2778 He says he has no concrete opinion of Gamma in his #1698 and says he will re-read him, but he isn't even caring to sort him now. He doesn't seem to be trying to progress the town win condition. He's let others do the work for him, and now he's omgusing my push on him. He isn't trying to influence the game positively to find scum.

[Ranmaru]

Spoiler: Conclusive Evidence

Will post tomorrow.

skimmed thread when it was locked.

a) Am I missing something with prods because I posted an anti-prod kick the can down the road post but that didn't seem to count
b) Rolling with Sauce town now because of their explanation for the switch, potential WIFOM not withstanding.

I'll post more tonight

Dodging prod. May post tonight

Will post tonight. Haven't had much time lately

Tomorrow

Hey Dan. I want to see you try to elaborate on your full reads list.

Sometime tomorrow

Coincidence. Like I said, I just spent 2 hours looking at Davsto specifically. Next up would be Gamma, then CES/Lycan

I'll go read up

Spoiler: Conclusive Evidence

Votecount 1.20

Tchill13(4)

~ Thestatusquo, northsidegal, LicketyQuickety, Llamarble

Marquis(2)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum, Dunnstral

northsidegal(1)

~ Marquis

Llamarble(1)

~ Sauce

LicketyQuickety(1)

~ Gamma Emerald

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ ActionDan

EddieFenix(1)

~ Postie

Davsto(1)

~ Tchill13

Cogito Ergo Sum(1)

~ Lycanfire


Not Voting (2): Davsto, EddieFenix

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-04 21:00:00)

MOD NOTES

Prodding ActionDan. ActionDan has 24 hours to make a content post.

Added Links to votes for easier finding of votes.

Votecount 1.31

Srceenplay(8)

~ Thestatusquo, northsidegal, Dunnstral, Lycanfire, Llamarble, Ranmaru, Gamma Emerald, Cogito Ergo Sum

-- HAMMER

Postie(1)

~ LicketyQuickety

LicketyQuickety(1)

~ Davsto

EddieFenix(1)

~ Postie


Not Voting (3): Marquis, EddieFenix, ActionDan

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-05 21:00:00)

MOD NOTES

It seems there is a hammer according to my tool. I will be home to verify in 30 minutes-1 hour.

If it is indeed hammer I will PM saying it is night start and put the appropriate flip.

If it isn’t I will refund time accordingly.

For now locking the thread.

MOD NOTES

Eddie Fenix and Action Dan are being prodded.

Spoiler: Conclusive Evidence

Ellibereth might be a neutral organizer of the event but our team has harnessed his power; we have learned the sacred scum hunting techniques and have inherited his scum prowess.

VOTE: Postie

@dan – mathdino wants to know why you're townreading quick, he thinks quick was the most likely of his team to pick scum.

Mulch is the most likely of his team to pick scum.

My townread on LQ started in post 93, as during the back and forth between you and Postie I thought that was the right kind of question if one wanted to extract more content that could be potentially useful in determining your alignment and something I might have asked myself. I thought 104 had town vibes too and I don't see anything to dissuade me from these feelings in other posts as of yet.

---

UNVOTE:

203 doesn't seem to be within Postie's scum range judging from the scum games provided. Beyond that, I don't really think she's scummy anymore.

I've read the thread pretty carefully but I don't have any strong scum suspicions. I will read the thread again. In the mean time if people could stop posting multiple times in a row and stop building huge quote walls one sentence at a time I'd appreciate it. I'm pretty sure that's a factor in diluting my ability to make reads.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I find post 125 incongruous with the Dunnstral evaluation before and after. I also would have expected in post 232 that LQ's acknowledgement of Dunntral's naked vote to be taken as a cue to look back and see why LQ would have said that, instead of making something of it.

Similarly, but much more importantly, there is disparity present between posts 105 and 231 with regard to the read on Sauce. Although 231 doesn't endorse a town read of Sauce there, it is a statement that is a far cry from the feelings expressed in 105.

I don't find anything nearly as scummy in the TSQ/Gamma back and forth as the above, but I will say that I got a strong townread of TSQ out of it.

Somewhere along the way, I lost the thread of this game.

UNVOTE:

I'm never going to be completely satisfied with GE's turn of opinion with regard to sauce and their interpretation of sauce's earlier posts giving town value to certain inane ramblings, but I've never really seen anything besides that that would make me think scum in particular. (Caveat, I haven't analyzed recent reads with a fine tune comb). Most of the game felt this way too back when I last had command of the game. The only real exception was Dunnstral, and my intention was if I were ever to switch from GE it would be to Dunnstral. That said, people seem to be liking his recent posts and I see why, there's a meta case against Tchill that he's pushing reasonably.

I remember having the following thoughts:

@NSG town reading lycan is not a mistake, even aware of what I'd only call moon-logic to connect a CES-Marquis-AD scum team later, his first big post which I called him town for was because I recognized there was evidence of critical thinking and discernment to his reads (in particular his Shea-town explanation and a quibble about my reasoning with regard to the same) that just spoke town to me.

@CES, I took a look back at Marquis' posting from the last TM 2015, and if we are comparing entrances there's not enough of a similarity to credibly invoke a meta tell.

I said I'd recheck LQ but that's a horrendous task. I'll attempt this tomorrow I guess, but I will say that in addition to my previous feeling he is town, I am so doubtful that the tone of confrontation and general spitefulness I see here towards everyone scum reading him is something scum would be like to do.

Eddie tho, I absolutely refuse to touch. My read on him stands as town.

As far as recent skimming is concerned, it's abundantly clear Ranmaru is town, if Sauce's post momo-lynch post wasn't enough already. Davsto looks town too, from what I can glean in-between the Point-quote-point catchup style.

I'm not really sure where to put my vote. It's really tempting to just buy into Tchill meta as put forward by Dunnstral, and there's not too many other people I'd vote at this stage (this list is basically just Dunnstral himself / Marquis / CES [who's recent postings I need to read more critically]) but my confidence level on anything flipping scum right now is pretty shit.

After reading CES/Marquis in more depth, I think CES is probably town. Almost all posts later than those in early D1 look town to me

As for Marquis my thinking is that everytime I have seen a post addressed to LQ in one way or another, either containing a vote or not, I don't think the scumread is justified. I suppose what I didn't like most was its development, from post to post, from 455 onwards. Most everything else I consider null. The reaction to Mastina's D2 contribution I can see both ways. Earlier I thought the mentions of teammates were nebulous, only intended to be seen without much purpose, but recently I can see more clearly SK's presence, though minor.

---

VOTE: Dunnstral

After screenplay's lynch and flip I looked back and thought apart from the Tchill push, there is just a void of anything there, and what little there is I don't like, D2 posting included.

The dual wagons on LQ and Eddie are alarming. They are precisely the mislynches I believe Llmarble was hoping to avoid and I very much disagree with Postie and Mathdino's assessments on Llmarble's NKA.

I still don't believe Ranmaru is scum, and likely won't ever, but I'll go ahead and look into Mastina's casework. Also hi.

At this point the only person I don't have a concrete opinion on is GE. So I guess along with actually reading D2, I'll reread him.

@Dan – Math wants to hear your team's read and thoughts on tsq

My team has barely commented on this game all told, but as far as shea goes, Katsuki and chess kid have said that he should be policy lynched before lylo (this is beginning of the game) and after the last two lynches Katsuki rhetorically asked if Shea led them. I told them he was town, but it's safe to say if they were in this game they'd probably be gunning for him regardless.

The postie kill probably makes NSG town, not that that wasn't particularly unclear before but when the last post of someone's is "remember if I die, NSG is lockdown," they probably are.

VOTE: Dunnstral

After reading the latest Dunnstral posts I'm more and more confident in a scum flip here. 2258 is the definition of surface level thoughts. If you aren't prepared to come up with your own answers for questions like these then it's a post for the sake of a post. I feel similarly about posts like 1899 and 1992: Both me and TSQ have given our rationales clearly, and at least for me, this wasn't ever a new development; so adding on the "it doesn't make sense" bit there is indicative of not doing the barest of due diligence, and I'd posit simple willful ignorance. I am aware of Dunnstral not being caught up, but the way that post is written betrays an unwillingness to do so to actually attain the context of my read and potentially sort me from that.

I do think it's entirely possible for the vote switch to marquis from Eddie by Dunnstral late D2 to be attributed to the reason given but that scum would be capable of that thinking too and might see an opportunity to position better knowing eddie was doomed and would flip town.

---

Reading more of Marquis' recent posts is like reading gish gallop, 1510 and 1904 are good examples. And they don't have to be; for example despite 1477 being long, it's pretty clear. It leads me to wonder if it's intentional, and I lean yes. looking back at D2 and the back and forth between Eddie and Marquis, 1477 is rather formative, and spearheads Marquis' scum read of Eddie, serving as the foundation. The more I look back, the more I think 1477's individual arguments against Mastina are speculative without sufficient reason behind behind them. What reason is there to believe the reads list was preset to D1? Without access to the Discord, why speculate that Eddie wouldn't be swayed by Mastina "who is well known for being wrong with these [readlists] than being right"?

I don't think that's honest scumhunting. It's a much more reactionary response than it ought to be, and the followup arguments boil down to a version of "Eddie is my cw and I'm town so it makes sense Eddie is scum," (see 1904) which supports that.

[/quote]

[Ranmaru]

There you go, those support my claims. I just never thought I'd have to show it like that. NSG, Lycanfire, Quick, Gamma. Let's talk tonight after I get off work. NSG, I want you to connect me to KMD and Mathdino. Tell KMD to look at my case above, and tell me what he thinks.

[Ranmaru]

Fumes and hot air will only propel you so far.

Your 1) 2) 3) points are laughable at best. For the first two, you're attempting to turn null-tells into scum tells and the 3rd lacks the rather important context that I spent the first half of the day voting Gamma and unvoted the post before, and was attempting to find another option for my vote that explicitly wouldn't be gamma. I think that should be a clear signal to everyone that you're attempting to find everything and anything to throw at me and call it scum motivation.

I mean that and you barely rely on the content I do produce to form a read aside from crying Boo-hoo he should have been more forceful in telling us not to lynch Eddie! the monster!

It shows how often you were posting 'tomorrow' and then never posted. You have been prodded as well. Your presence had been severely lacking, Yet you are more present now then ever. Tell me, why are you more present now? Your votes show that you only vote Dunn and Gamma. One of which is town. Early game you seem to joke vote Postie when things are already getting serious, and you don't really state anything that can progress RVS. For example, you state that you are confident that Dunn will flip scum in your #2318, but it doesn't feel like it to me.

Also, I don't think that someones lynch pool remaining mostly static is a scum tell in any way. I think the same people are scum that I thought were scum yesterday. For the same reasons. Not much has changed in that regard imo.

This is still an outstanding question for you Ranmaru and one that I've brought up repeatingly too before.

I think it's suspicious if a person keeps the same lynch pool, when it's only based on gut, and no other game solving or any other contribution. (Besides the meta case) I feel like Shea did plenty in Day 1, but much less Day 3. I feel like he is getting lazy.

[Ranmaru]

Well, I managed to sort of write up 2 of my reads. Let's pretend that this is a good start.

Marquis: Marquis is scum. His play is performative and lacking in pro-town intent (e.g. he made a big show of wanting to cooperate with me but hasn't answered the question I asked 2 hours later). His entrance was awkward and he then lurked his way out of the resulting pressure (he admits as much in #381 which is also an example of him being performative with the 1)2)3) righteous indignation angle). Another example is him popping in at the end of D1 and being more focussed on working in the claim that he wouldn't pick scum naturally into his posting than on what was actually going on in the game (i.e. the Screenplaylynch). Yet another example is #1481 - just look at his explanations for his read on me and GE or that last paragraph, he's talking to an audience trying to look town. His vote on Ranmaru is the most textbook example of him trying to look town (i.e. the classic scum vote against the grain); I don't actually think this is the most compelling example but certainly the most easy to digest.

ActionDan: quite a bit less confident in this read as I don't strong vibes from most of his posting either way, so this ends up being more about a few specific ones. One point is his behaviour around the Eddiewagon - I don't get how as town you think it important enough to mention Eddie's alignment preference on page 6 when no-one's suspicious of him but don't find it important enough to reiterate this fact during Day 2, when the Eddielynch seemed the most likely outcome of that Day basically right from the start; he only gets round to defending him one real-life day before the end (I also have some niggling feelings about the structure of #1985 but I think the timing was sufficiently bad that ADscum wouldn't have to skimp on the content). My other issue with AD was in his recent response to Ranmaru's push - I really don't like his accusation in #2937 (reiterated in #2941) that Ranmaru led 2 mislynches; that doesn't match how I see the game at all and I think holding mislynches against townies is something scum really like to do.

I actually like this post. Especially since Marquis seems content on doing nothing really. He's not even trying. I can actually see that he's not even trying to have a conversation with yourself or me. He's also being hypocritical, before my push on him, he accused me of trying to shade town reads, when I was pushing Shea. Then after my push on him, he says I'm just trying to push weaker players like himself. Yet I was just pushing Shea before that. So why does he *really* have a problem with me. Also note, that he had me as a top town read below Shea, and I asked him why he was town reading me. He never answered. Also take note that he was trying to pocket me Day 1.

[Ranmaru]

Ran, if dan's lynch isn't happening today (which it isn't), where would your vote be going?

Marquis. I think scum are [Dan, Marquis, Shea]. (Least confident about Shea)

[Ranmaru]

For the record nsg is scum-tryharding as opposed to postie town-tryharding. The difference is in the reactiveness (?) or general gist of that

NSG looks like NSG here. What you'd call scum-tryharding I'd call NAI. But I 100% disagree with your postie assessment and think as NSG as said, it comes off as forced. "forced" really isn't doing it justice actually, it's more like a cross-examination that where any one line of inquiry splits into two arbitrarily ad nauseam.

Ellibereth might be a neutral organizer of the event but our team has harnessed his power; we have learned the sacred scum hunting techniques and have inherited his scum prowess.

VOTE: Postie

VOTE: north

Someone ttm

Hi! Why did you vote for north

Probably the same reason you did!

---

NSG, I just want to show you why I feel Scum are trying to set you up as their 'fall girl'. It's right above. Marquis votes you and puts himself an in awkward position, to link himself to you on his scum flip. Dan, on the other hand, votes Postie (your attacker) to show a veiled chainsaw. (Essentially, he's pseudo defending you by attacking your attacker) Either flip implicates you, but I think you are town and they are doing so as a red herring since this is white flag, and they'd rather draw fake connections instead of bus.

[Ranmaru]

does this make him scum, somehow?

I would think so, yes. I don't see a pro-town reason for him to come out of the woodworks when his established pattern of presence was much less then that.

you realize this perfectly describes cogito ergo sum, yes?

mathdino is saying that he thinks you're very

biased by who's supporting the wagon you're currently on, and that effort isn't AI for marquis

.

His isn't based on gut, and I can actually follow it. I am confused, can you elaborate further on this. Also, who's scum on a CES town flip? Who's scum on a CES scum flip?

[Ranmaru]

Yes, I'll get to that. I want to ask what you think of his recent posts, by the way. Then compare it to how you are reading Dunn.

[Ranmaru]

Only comparison in my mind is that Marquis is suspicious to me, while Dunn is null. Only concern I have with Dunn now is that he's not voting nor is he helping right now, and posting else where. I would expect both will be lynched either way. I just suspect Marquis will be the red flip. I also think Marquis's recent posts are those of a survival instinct. Can you talk to me more about the bias thing?

[Ranmaru]

I've been reading it, and will comment later with my input on it. (Would you rather I give input as soon as I get a chance, or after CES responds to it?) By the way, the weather is fine. I may take a nap though as I am tired. Anyway, in the case we get this wrong today, I really do want you, Lycanfire, Quick, and Gamma to try hard to re-evaluate and find the right scum once I am killed at night. Has KMD gotten a chance to read up on the game any further?

[Ranmaru]

I'm at work, will respond to NSG and comment on her case after I get home. CES, can you comment on my Action Dan case?

[Ranmaru]

Quick, and Gamma, what makes you join this push rather then when I pushed it and asked for you guys to join me?

[Ranmaru]

Thank you Quick. Now Gamma, I want to hear your answer too.

[Ranmaru]

I think town is going to lose.

[Ranmaru]

Alright. Can you talk to me what you like about the case?

[Ranmaru]

Gamma, you there? Still waiting.

[Ranmaru]

Lycanfire we need to talk tonight. CES, I'll reply when I get home.

[Ranmaru]

Ok. I understand why LQ was attacking my read on Gamma this day now.

[Ranmaru]

Unvote

Scum is Shea, Quick, Gamma.

[Ranmaru]

More when I get home.

[Ranmaru]

Gamma's doing the same thing as in our last game (Penguin Mafia Redux). Similar plan. He just seems townier here, I didn't see it until now.

[Ranmaru]

If he hammers instant lynch him tomorrow.

[Ranmaru]

Ok then Gamma. When I get home I can bring up some quotes.