Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Gamma Emerald]

Yeah I think I am starting to make sense of it. Plus your interactions with Marquis aren't really all that solid as scum-scum interactions now that I look at them.
UNVOTE:
not gonna vote yet since I'm rather tired now

Okay so it was after this post my eyes glazed over, so I'm gonna try to analyze everything beyond here
That's right I'm finally doing my readback of the day 2 stuff I ignored, plus addressing anything I forgot to do in that time. Prepare for a massive wall

[Gamma Emerald]

NSG

: Almost50 is thinking that team 9 got 2 or 3 scum pms, and that team 1 got 1 or 2 scum pms. He thinks it is likely that team 9 is scum in two games, and that our own team, team 15, is being eliminated from all games due to his method. He say precisely in this game, that he took a closer look at Eddie and Davsto and decided they are not scum. He thinks that the three scum in this game have come from teams with 1 scum pm each, and has cleared NSG, Davsto, Gamma, which I agree with. He came up with a pool of Lycanfire, CES, Dunn, Shea, and Marquis. I then looked at that pool and tried to see who was the most likely scum.

His reads are based on (in order from 1 to 3):

1. In-game association and behaviour
2. In-game VCA
3. Global VCA

He says Mastina has come up with a way to mess with the VCA by forming a

3-Player Wagon (all scum) voting a slot early game

, and he doesn't believe it is the case with Eddie. Make sure your team reads this post and please have them return a response soon. He thinks we should be working with teams 4,5,13,14 and possibly 10 but 10 is not a hundred percent. (Although I want to work with AD since he's my hydra buddy)

NSG, here is what A50 thinks are the most likely to pick scum:

1) Annen/Tbone, 2) Lycan/Eddie Cane, 5) ??, 6) CES/CDB, 7) Implosion/Marquis, 9) All of them, but Mastina and Thor already flipped, so Gingie/Bulb > Eddie, 10) AD/CK, 11) GL, 12) TSQ, 13) Chara

wtf is global VCA? So A50 is saying scum has been wagoning together early in all games? If that's the case there may have been some validity in me saying Dunn was wagoning Marquis even though he was the first vote. As for who would take scum, I have been doing some tracking of flips across games so maybe my team and A50 (Aero's in A50's game right?) can compare notes on who would take scum. And lol yeah my team is honestly one of the fuckiest ones if we got a scum slot cos none of us are really strong as scum, like honestly I am actually the strongest among us, I'm aware I said otherwise earlier but I checked our beginning chat at one point and feel I was wrong back then.

[Gamma Emerald]

didn't mean to post that goddammit
at least you know where I'm at currently

[Gamma Emerald]

FUCK ME IN THE ASS WITH A CACTUS
ELLI CHANGED THE RULES ON ME LIKE AN HOUR AGO, WHILE I WAS STILL READING STUFF, BARRING WHAT I JUST DID
BAN ME IF YOU LIKE BUT IF YOU DO YOU'RE A PIECE OF SHIT FOR CHANGING THE GOALPOSTS

[Gamma Emerald]

Alright here's my thoughts on the last like ten pages

Spoiler:

GE @ 1368
Those 2 quotes posted in LQ's direction, deep dive those for the Ran case. Those are her thoughts mixed with my wordings. Also, for that list, her thoughts tbh. She has you at null. I'd tick you to the town/null line tbh

Which two posts to LQ? Also how would you be reading Ran and Marq if not for mastina's input?

VOTE: LQ

I didn't read overnight even though I should have

Team all agrees on this tho so I'm parking and riding wheeeeeee

Also liking nsg slightly more because that's pretty much exactly how I feel about where I am with this game. That and someone else please obvtown soon so I have a stepping stone to get back in

(the post where he banters with GE is garbage. Starting to get wankers cramp)

What part with me bantering? and why do you say it's garbage?

Willing to lynch LQ or Eddie preferably LQ.

And yes it's convenient that they're like the two biggest wagons besides me, deservedly so.

Remember yesterday when he was the lead wagon and then Screenplay became the lynch?? Let's NOT repeat that today.

You seem to be the leading wagon today. tmi...?

what she thinks I should be doing if what I'm doing is so wrong earlier

i think if you're town the way you look at mafia is too by-the-book and you see things that scum obviously would not do and that town are more realistically likely to do, as things that scum would actually do.
i think if you're scum you think this is how to look town because this is a method of playing it safe.

@all again i have a certain limit for how much "too scummy to be scum" i can apply to a read and still be able to take it seriously. and it feels like almost every time i step back into this game gamma is intent on ringing that bell and adding onto the count. it's literally so often it's uncanny.

the only reasons i'm not voting for him is because other than that i like wagons and have stronger read priorities, i'm a fake and can't keep "too scummy to be scum" in my pants. in terms of settling-on-a-lynch reasons, it tends to be my last resort because i put more stock in that one solitary reason to townread him than i'd like to admit.

I guess that's fair? Honestly when I came in I was kinda wanting to give you a fresh start but then I changed my mind after a few vote hit you and I felt a little less tense about the whole affair, and then Ranmaru shifted off of you when she did which raised my eyebrows. I've been considering the possibility Eddie is right, since all of a sudden you were taken off the table by Ranmaru. That's why I think there's a dichotomy, I think LQ and Eddie are being promoted as the best wagons to reduce the viability of a scum lynch today.

Ran is protecting him. Putting Myself and LQ on the table is

easy

to see and do. Hence why I point out above that Postie's RC stance is easily seen, Davsto even pointed it out, and as such and should be put under a HUGE microscope.

mmm as I said earlier some Marquis and Ran interactions are not very scum theatre-like

I'm not sure. I'm just telling you what it feels like. Maybe it's not to drag myself and Postie down, but rather to make a disconnect between each other. I can't know the exact reasoning scum would do this, I can only guess. On LQ being aware of it: Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. What do you mean desperation is in the air for you? I liked Marquis's vote on Eddie, his reasoning that was similar to mine. I liked that he made stances and was actually interacting quite a bit. Originally I scum read him based on him being in early game, and being less present during most of D1, which would make sense coming from scum. If he becomes active D2, most of that problem goes away for me. Especially since there are other slots that are much more under the radar, like AD or Dunn.

It took me throwing a fucking case from Mastina at Marquis to come in and even start REMOTELY getting active/doing fuck all. It's like he took a spit-take to the fact that someone dared make a case on him, then he easily hot drops a vote on me when my wagon is starting to gain a good chunk of traction/heat only to disappear back into the night again because he's got his scum team to protect his ass. Hmmm, I WONDER WHY THIS SOUNDS SO FAMILIAR!?! -looks back at day 1- HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM. Right AFTER hammer, Marquis DANCES in and just starts spamming the thread.

One thing I dislike about how Eddie is playing here is that he doesn't seem to be having the reaction to the wagon on him I'd expect if he were town. If he were town I'd think he'd go raging against his wagon here. Also how is Marquis posting in twilight scummy? Kinda on-the-fence with that rn

RC says that LQ thinking I'm bussing makes sense given he's seen RC bus a lot recently and it lines up with how LQ has scumread RC in every game they've ever played and so naturally reads anything related to RC as scum-motivated. He says that LQ's play has been bad but that doesn't necessarily make him scum, and that rationalising lynching Eddie because he thinks I'm bussing him might actually be something he wouldn't do as scum just because of how bad it looks.
He doesn't like that Ranmaru seems to be specifically saying LQ is playing badly and telling him to play better rather than telling him to play less scummyly. Some things on recent pages have been gut pinging him.

So does that last line mean RC perceives an association between Ran and LQ?

i'm pretty sure that my team and postie's team are on the same wavelength when it comes to ran's slot. ran, what's a50 interested in specifically? because i'd be willing to hear it out.

more specific responses incoming.

What wavelength is this wrt Ran?

LQ if you're town here we want to point out that there totally is resistance and both you and Marquis were counterwagons for a while before we shut them down

Indeed, there was the Marquis wagon earlier. Also I'm giving Postie townpoints for stating she shut those wagons down, if Eddie ends up town that means she claims responsibility for shifting the wagon to him.

Ran, RC says that all he sees you doing right now is trying to make another Eddie counterwagon happen, and that if Eddie is scum he wants you lynched tomorrow. He says you should help lynch Eddie if you want your TSQ read taken seriously.

Sorry I'll start playing the game myself more soon too.

Coming back to this not being completely out of it there's more I take issue with. Like how much does RC believe in Eddie!scum?

VOTE: Postie
Yeah, thinking on it that

very

much looks like pushing an agenda, Ran has stated he doesn't believe those two are scum together so it's basically "help me push a mislynch then I'll join you".

I don't really think so. This is the kind of thing that RC does when he is town and trying to control the town.

Granted, it's also what he does when he's scum trying to control the town.

Basically RC just likes to control the town.

I think this was my last vote
UNVOTE: because while I feel Postie's thinking here is askew I'm not quite sure it's scum at this point

I could get behind Dunnstral tho, I feel he's avoiding me

Stull feel like Dunn's avoiding me

That shows LQ was skimming the first lines rather than actually caring to read the post
VOTE: LQ

ok
VOTE: LicketyQuickety
Since I wasn't voting Postie

Davsto says my interactions with TSQ have been off? I wanna hear this

I don't mean off as in ingenuine if that's what you think I mean

I mean like I remember you coming out quite badly with your confrontations with tsq in terms of your points coming out looking rather poor ygm

But recently you've rubbed me much less wrongly so that is why I'm planning on ISOing you soon

So like, what do you mean my points came out poor?

Why don't you explicitly say that you town read Postie instead of saying 'not scum'? Usually, scum fake reads, to fit in with the town. Your actions line up with this. I don't deny that mistakes can come from town, but they can also come from scum. I am very detail oriented, I look at all the small things, I ask about everything. I weigh everything, and ask myself the town motivation and scum motivation. LQ Scum motivation: Avoid town screen wagon to keep hands clean, drop reads without much reasoning to hide actual reasoning for dropping it, discredit town read players when given the chance (like your push on myself, then Davsto). LQ Town motivation: Do weird stuff because that's what you always do and you are too stubborn to change it. This is why I am asking others that have played with both of your alignments to comment to help my read. At the moment I don't trust your answers anymore. Also, I don't use Occam's Razor. Anyway, it doesn't seem like to me, that you are trying to be accurate with who is scum. You are just floating around, reacting. That's it. Then when I expect a response, you are frozen in time, especially when your reads on Shea and Lycan were weak. You had no intentions of strengthening those reads. To me, this means #267 was all for show. So the question is, do you care about getting your reads right, and if so, how are you doing that? Also, I want your full reads list. I asked for it, you never gave one.

I didn't realize that it was necessary to explicitly state what my read on Postie was at the beginning of the game /s
Seriously, why does this matter? How is my answer going to help you sort me? I keep saying this and you keep ignoring answering this.

Seriously, you are going to have to show some pretty solid evidence for why you think I had more incentive as Scum to be off the Sceen wagon then as Town. I mean, it's like you are not even looking at the actually reasoning for me not being on the wagon OR how I delayed the EOD when I very well could have be lynched because of this. So much for being detail oriented. And there have been some people who have SR both you and Davsto. Tell me why both of you have never had a wagon on you take off. And I do want an answer for this.

And you didn't give a genuine statement about my motivation as Town to do what I am doing. I would have expected you to give me at least some credit for doing what I am doing as Town. It makes it look like there is no way I am Town. It's just biased as hell.

As far as other players playing with me as both Town and Scum, there really are not players who fit this I don't think. North, shea, and GE has seen me play as Scum. Shea, GE, Dunn, Postie, and Marquis have seen me play as Town. I don't think there is a single player who has played with me in more than 2 games. Possibly GE. North has seen me play as Scum twice and I think that is more than anyone, but North died N1 in one of the game so...

I mean, like what incentive do I even have to give you are reads list? It's not like you are going to start TRing me because of it. What's the point of knowing my reads?

Which games have I seen you as town in besides that hydra game I avoid thinking about?

Brain is a bit full of fuck right now

Once already this morning I was phone posting something really good. I realized it didn't mesh with the conclusions I thought I was coming to. Tonight I made my thoughts more coherent and let my analysis take me to my conclusions. I'm happier than when I started, but I'd like to do some quid pro quo with Ran first.

Lycanfire, you had LQ as a scum read Day 1. When and why did that change?

Pretty much the circumstances of how he took Shea's pressure mixed in with a bit of Llamarble's. It culminated in posts like

It seems that I am a player who people seem somewhat polarized on. Given this, It might actually benefit Town if I am lynched, but then that takes away all my power to have an influence on the game based on my play and I think I can give Town a better chance at winning if I am not lynched. That said, if people remain to have polarizing views of me, then it's likely I will be able to stay in the game for a while because Scum will not NK someone they think they might be able to lynch. Given this, it puts a lot of pressure on me for my reads to be good and to produce good content. Most of this pressure is self induced because last time I survived to end game I used a method to try and solve the game that I put too much trust in and it ended up with me having a few of bad reads so I don't want to have another poor performance where I survive to late game to have a poor influence on helping my team win the game.

This is before Llamarble's game predict post where he began treating himself as already lynched. He's basically just egging it on.

And I did really like that sod post I quoted before-

@Marble, I've got Screen in my sights for today. However, from the AtE and flailing going on, I'm willing to let the case write itself right now and give screen more time(and rope essentially) to hang themselves with it. If anything, I'm a patient man.

I want to point out the dissonance in this. He implies that he strongly thinks Srceen is scum, but then says he wants to give him more time and isn't going to vote or push there.
Like, Eddie in this post straight-up, literally, says that he wants this lynch but wants it while sitting back and letting it play out without his involvement.

I didn't know it was possible to play exclusively to scum wincon so hard and not be obvscum.

Like jesus christ guys this isn't rocket science

And if I had a nickel for everytime Llama changed their scum reads I would probably have several dollars by now.

I think it's Scummy af for you to try and use Llama's death to say Eddie is Scum. Llama was widely widely TR. That is why Llama was probably killed, not because of who Llama went after.

Scum love starting shit with NKs. NKA might be under-used, but it's also poorly used, and if it's a one liner at sod, it's not even analysis, it's just shit. Why does scum!LQ make this post-no, here's a better question. Why does scum!LQ make that post, at that time? If someone wants to earn towncred by making a voice of reason post, they can still let the fans be flamed by somebody else. Contributing at that moment in time was about as towniest as it was going to get-he could have done so later, and let people get tangled in bias, or let something catch on fire. Nope, it's time to proceed with day. Thank god.

I'd like to ask you: can you explain your read on Gamma?

For everyone else: get rid of your fucking null reads. If you find someone town for X and scum for Y say it. You might not be the only one. You might be the only one, and nobody noticed X or Y. It doesn't matter if you're wrong, or hurt somebodys feelings. If some ill-fated push happens as a result, it won't be just because of you, so go ahead and reach for the stars, even if they're made of shit.

I'd townread this last sentiment
But BOTH me and Ran know that it's not one scum are unable to have, I mean it's how Ran caught me out in

our first goddamn game together

.

So I'm think the team is among LQ/Eddie/Dunn/Lycan right now from the stuff covered here. Marquis is a suspect as well based on previous events. Current solid townreads are Ran and Shea, plus I'm feeling Postie is town. CES still town. AD/Dave/nsg I haven't sorted, maybe ISOs? Also need to ISO lycan still

[Gamma Emerald]

btw beeboy thanks for posting that an hour late, real helpful

/s

[Gamma Emerald]

I want you to look into NSG and tell me what you think.

will do that after lycan

[Gamma Emerald]

So I'm think the team is among LQ/Eddie/Dunn/Lycan right now from the stuff covered here. Marquis is a suspect as well based on previous events. Current solid townreads are Ran and Shea, plus I'm feeling Postie is town. CES still town. AD/Dave/nsg I haven't sorted, maybe ISOs? Also need to ISO lycan still

Your analysis sucks and your reads suck worse. I played with you in PYP.

Alright I remember that one now. Think I shut it out because of crap teammates. Also you gonna drink the haterade with Marq? Cos if so just like I said to her I need some backup of what you're saying. Prove me wrong if you think so strongly of it.

You're also way to concerned with how people see you when you aren't being heavily SR.

You wanna tell me how I'm doing this cos I don't think that's the case here

Lycanfire iso in progress btw, just saw these when previewing to get to the next part of it. Damn does Lycan inadvertently wallpost

[Gamma Emerald]

Welp my lycan iso got eaten so I'll just post my conclusions, was almost done anyway

So I'm think the team is among LQ/Eddie/Dunn/Lycan right now from the stuff covered here. Marquis is a suspect as well based on previous events. Current solid townreads are Ran and Shea, plus I'm feeling Postie is town. CES still town. AD/Dave/nsg I haven't sorted, maybe ISOs? Also need to ISO lycan still

Your analysis sucks and your reads suck worse. I played with you in PYP.

Alright I remember that one now. Think I shut it out because of crap teammates. Also you gonna drink the haterade with Marq? Cos if so just like I said to her I need some backup of what you're saying. Prove me wrong if you think so strongly of it.

You're also way to concerned with how people see you when you aren't being heavily SR.

You wanna tell me how I'm doing this cos I don't think that's the case here

Lycanfire iso in progress btw, just saw these when previewing to get to the next part of it. Damn does Lycan inadvertently wallpost

The things I am saying are not a given because I am the one saying it.

Your questions are not really good questions to ask. They are all kinda basic type of questions that anyone can ask. Like, what are you actually going to do with your answers? How does this help you read someone? It's similar to Ran asking me what my reads are - just why.. why are you asking? If you know what my reads are and you don't give me the credit to know that I am fully capable of faking reads pretty damn well, then this is pretty much the only reason I can see for Town being concerned with reads.

You seem to be the leading wagon today. tmi...?

Like... seriously, why ask this?

One thing I dislike about how Eddie is playing here is that he doesn't seem to be having the reaction to the wagon on him I'd expect if he were town. If he were town I'd think he'd go raging against his wagon here. Also how is Marquis posting in twilight scummy? Kinda on-the-fence with that rn

Seriously, this is BAD. Especially when I think that was an engagement that I thought Eddie handled quite well. Like what Eddie said that actually makes a whole lot of sense and you are acting like what he is saying is the Scummies thing you have seen. I mean really, way way way more often than not when I see someone say "I think you would do X different as Town" they are so off their rocker they have no idea how inaccurate that kind of tell is. Unless you have really really solid meta on someone, you really should never be saying this. Saying "this person doing this reminds me of when they were X in game Y" is like worlds better than what you are saying and the latter is still a pretty damn weak read without some pretty damn solid meta.

It's more of an expectation from how he started the day. If he really thought those two were scum then there should be a bit more oomph to his pushing of them imo. If you still disagree, tell me how I'm wrong using evidence from this game only.
And which questions are you actually taking issue with? You get on me about me asking meaningless questions but I don't really see them? The one underneath if you think that's one wasn't a question as much as a "does anyone else think this?"

[Gamma Emerald]

So like the main issue I see with Lycan is hypocrisy. A fabulous example is him saying early in the game saying he won't take a team and run with it yet he's doing that -right now-. Another issue is him saying people ten to not be willing to reconsider their reads leading to "feely bullshit", which I somewhat see in his posts? Real convenient he left out any definition of what "feely bullshit" means

[Gamma Emerald]

There was no deeper meaning. I felt there was a higher chance of LQ and Eddie being scum together, while I had Marquis as a scum read on the back burner, as I wasn't too confident in it. I'd like for you to look into NSG.

What
fairly certain this is to me but what about?

[Gamma Emerald]

So like the main issue I see with Lycan is hypocrisy. A fabulous example is him saying early in the game saying he won't take a team and run with it yet he's doing that -right now-. Another issue is him saying people ten to not be willing to reconsider their reads leading to "feely bullshit", which I somewhat see in his posts? Real convenient he left out any definition of what "feely bullshit" means

I said I wasn't running with a team in that single post where I gave 6 scumreads. It was to emphasize I was doing analysis in near isolation from where I left off to the end of LQ vs Shea. I never made any promises of

not

doing this... Is this only a problem for you when you're in the team, or when I say CES/Dan/NSG it's super cool?

As for the latter comment. I said people not reading PAST their first gut feeling.... Is feely bullshit. I don't know what you think you're doing with this post, but it isn't doing whatever you think it's doing. Make more sense.

No, that was to Lycanfire. Yet I'd like for you and Lycanfire to ISO her and look at my #1821, then tell me what you think.

That's essentially why I was calling her lurksack every post, because she's aware of it. She's not exactly trying to avert it either, but people also aren't keen on wagoning CES, so. if we're going into bad territory and nsg is scum, it isn't with Eddie. Does your scumteam change and if so why?

P-Edit: I hope you can take this post as a consolation. I am thinking GE could be Scum here after all. I will look over that PYP game I played with him and see what I can get.

Does scum!Gamma blindly agree with Eddie's godread on Marquis post?

Alright then. I guess that a fair response and to be expected but I felt like it might get something out of you. Also more shade yippee! Like, I never said which team I took issue with. I took issue with CES-AD-nsg because it seems you're kinda ignoring evidence against that, as shown with you not taking in the fact scum have daytalk in this game and adjusting your AD-CES reads based on that. At this point I don't recall anytime you actually called me scum but I am reminded of something I wanted to ask you: if my "defense" of eddie was so bad, why don't you seem to suspect me for it? And shouldn't you also suspect eddie based on that? Along with that, I have another grievance with the post where that was brought up: the "thoughts" feel like useless analysis. You kept saying "these aren't s v s" with out making any conclusions. Thinking about it just now it feels like leaving options open.

@LQ I've been taking a while to do things this whole game, don't say I've been taking a while to respond to questions when it's been everything that I've taken a while to respond to.

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay, so we're on the same page there then. Townreading CES btw
Honestly I think I'm actually in love with white flag now that I'm engaged in playing the setup

I remembered this post for some reason. I don't like it, IDK why.

Me neither. All I'm doing is noting my agreement with Ran and stating a read I disagree with, then saying I like the setup (which is because I like not having to worry about being 100% right on the scum since 2 is enough to win).

[Gamma Emerald]

Yeah I actually did well there, my teammates were shit is what caused problems. However I kinda feel like I'm not really playing to my scum meta as detailed by Infinity324? I'll have to fetch the time he described it and run it by my play this game. I will admit it's not like the tell is foolproof anymore but it's still pretty solid tbh, especially if there's something intimidating me from getting into the game (basically if I'm scum and getting suspected and I haven't really gotten my foot in the door yet I'm inclined to lurk out rather than play past it)

[Gamma Emerald]

@Dave

I was scumreading Lycan beforehand, maybe I should have noted that in my list but I refer you to my points against Lycan after that retread for why I scumread him

[Gamma Emerald]

Well at least I know you cared to read it

[Gamma Emerald]

Alright. Want me to fact check scum balking at you?
So you're saying Dan's shift to townreading you is scummy. What about your CES read? Also I think using "they said something weird together" is a bad scumtell but I can't remember the last time it popped up as one. As for the other associations I'm not sure scum would buddy up that hard? Plus we haven't seen Marquis' alignment yet so until we see a Marquis townflip you can't really find that shift to Marquis 100% scummy. I have a question for you: let's say it's you, Dan, and CES +2 randoms in 5p lylo. Which do you vote? Explain why.
You called me scum but not with LQ or Dan? I get that you said me and him weren't S v S, but what about LQ? As for defending Eddie I will admit that kinda does look like a defense taken out of context, but Imy thoughts were more of "he seems suspicious at poiints but not anything I think I'm willing to vote rn". Also, Ran has told me spoiler longer posts, and I'm going with the person I am closer to, which is Ran. And I didn't blame Shea, I said it made sense he would vote me given what Shea had just done. So instead of me blaming Shea for Eddie voting, I'm noting that eddie's vote is less pingy when put into context. As for the mental gymnastics, I wasn't doing any of those, and also why the hell wouldn't you state that it was mental gymnastics earlier? And honestly what makes you think 506 isn't scum theatre?
as for those thought you made, yeah you put the thoughts on paper, but there's no sticking your head out with speculation on what any of it might mean. The scum gain is that you can fake analysis that doesn't really mean anything and twist it to any conclusion you want if it suits you later.
And fuck no I'm not going to be lined up for a lynch. If Eddie is scum then I'll deal with any fall out but I'm sure as heck not getting turboed over it.

[Gamma Emerald]

TBH, don't care about reading up.

FUCK ME IN THE ASS WITH A CACTUS
ELLI CHANGED THE RULES ON ME LIKE AN HOUR AGO, WHILE I WAS STILL READING STUFF, BARRING WHAT I JUST DID
BAN ME IF YOU LIKE BUT IF YOU DO YOU'RE A PIECE OF SHIT FOR CHANGING THE GOALPOSTS

Agreeing with this sentiment. -walks away-

which one

[Gamma Emerald]

Alright. Want me to fact check scum balking at you?
So you're saying Dan's shift to townreading you is scummy. What about your CES read? Also I think using "they said something weird together" is a bad scumtell but I can't remember the last time it popped up as one. As for the other associations I'm not sure scum would buddy up that hard? Plus we haven't seen Marquis' alignment yet so until we see a Marquis townflip you can't really find that shift to Marquis 100% scummy. I have a question for you: let's say it's you, Dan, and CES +2 randoms in 5p lylo. Which do you vote? Explain why.
You called me scum but not with LQ or Dan? I get that you said me and him weren't S v S, but what about LQ? As for defending Eddie I will admit that kinda does look like a defense taken out of context, but Imy thoughts were more of "he seems suspicious at poiints but not anything I think I'm willing to vote rn". Also, Ran has told me spoiler longer posts, and I'm going with the person I am closer to, which is Ran. And I didn't blame Shea, I said it made sense he would vote me given what Shea had just done. So instead of me blaming Shea for Eddie voting, I'm noting that eddie's vote is less pingy when put into context. As for the mental gymnastics, I wasn't doing any of those, and also why the hell wouldn't you state that it was mental gymnastics earlier? And honestly what makes you think 506 isn't scum theatre?
as for those thought you made, yeah you put the thoughts on paper, but there's no sticking your head out with speculation on what any of it might mean. The scum gain is that you can fake analysis that doesn't really mean anything and twist it to any conclusion you want if it suits you later.
And fuck no I'm not going to be lined up for a lynch. If Eddie is scum then I'll deal with any fall out but I'm sure as heck not getting turboed over it.

Lycan you missed this

[Gamma Emerald]

Dunnstral
What's your read on me

Town

What do you think of the reason I scumread you day 1?

Dunnstral answer this

Why did you scumread me day 1?

Well I thought you had joined the Marquis wagon. I was wrong though because you started it.

Dunn I still need you to respond to this

[Gamma Emerald]

lol Dunn's scum
if he was town he'd be more critical of me for that, plus he kept dodging the question
VOTE: Dunnstral

[Gamma Emerald]

You kept "not noticing", after a while it can't be explained away as that, plus I feel like you would be a bit more critical of it since it was a reasoning on you

[Gamma Emerald]

You know what I think Dunn might just be that stupid but like
I still suspect him even without that part of things

[Gamma Emerald]

Vote: Northsidegal

NSG: Who's scum to you today? Please post KMD's notes.
Gamma: Who's scum to you today? Read on NSG? Did you ever do that ISO on her?
LQ: Who's scum to you today? Read on NSG?
Shea: What direction are thinking of going today?

I'm not that solid today. I'm going to re-read after work.

Suspecting idk. I feel like the kill was to get rid of dead weight since EddieFenix got lynched. I'd say Marquis, Dan, Lycan, and LQ

You know what I think Dunn might just be that stupid but like
I still suspect him even without that part of things

Gamma, can you go more into this? Why do you still suspect him if you think he's being silly overall? Also, can you tell me why a dichotomy yesterday was bad?

So I had a cross-game read on Dunn where I figured he was scum and town in two games, so I tried to discern his alignment in one to get his alignment in the other. This was based on his treatment of the action of falsely accusing someone of following on a wagon when they were not, something I did to him in this game and someone else did to him in the other game. He had different reactions so I figured there was something up with that. Unfortunately I got taken out of the other game before I could press him to the breaking point so I went after him here instead. When I realized he'd fixed himself in the other game I figured it was useless pressing him here. However I still believe he's town now based on the significant difference in treatment of that one behavior.

[Gamma Emerald]

btw I never did the NSG iso but I did try to start it

[Gamma Emerald]

I feel like the kill was to get rid of dead weight since EddieFenix got lynched.

Why would the scum want to get rid of dead weight?

Vote: Marquis

This lynch should happen Today.

Dead weight to them
After eddie got lynched they didn't need postie to push that
so I'm gonna scout the eddie wagon for scum

[Gamma Emerald]

I feel like the kill was to get rid of dead weight since EddieFenix got lynched.

Why would the scum want to get rid of dead weight?

Vote: Marquis

This lynch should happen Today.

Dead weight to them
After eddie got lynched they didn't need postie to push that
so I'm gonna scout the eddie wagon for scum

What do you think of my SR on you?

I think it's kinda sudden. Do you have specific posts to point to like you do for Shea?

Gamma,

If I said I am SRing you based on the way you vote, what would you say?

I'd say you need to specify what "based on your votes" means.

[Gamma Emerald]

Oh really? Then what makes you say I'm voting like I do as scum?

[Gamma Emerald]

BTW, I realize my case on shea is shit.

My observations of Gamma are a lot better and will give us something to discuss.

why would you press it if you thought it was

[Gamma Emerald]

How can you possibly say there was no counterwagon? Either of the first two days? It's something you keep saying but its not true.

This. While nothing popped above there was certainly one at least on D2 (Marquis), I mean I noted there was a freaking Dichotomy on D2
actually I think Ran asked me about that earlier

[Gamma Emerald]

You know what I think Dunn might just be that stupid but like
I still suspect him even without that part of things

Gamma, can you go more into this? Why do you still suspect him if you think he's being silly overall? Also, can you tell me why a dichotomy yesterday was bad?

okay here it is
I thought the dichotomy was bad because yet again we had two options with minimal considerations for others

[Gamma Emerald]

TSQ you're not giving a read on me specifically there

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm interested in this case on me, as I think I may know where it stems from and have a problem with it, and I can only post in detail quickly for about an hour before I have to leave where I'm posting. I may be able to post sporadically after but that's not certain.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Ranmaru

LOL explain this shit. Just because Ran is telling you to present first you're voting him? You wanna revise that line of bullshit?

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Ranmaru

LOL explain this shit. Just because Ran is telling you to present first you're voting him? You wanna revise that line of bullshit?

Why is it bull shit?

Because you're not scumreading him but still voting him because he's pressing you on your read on me

[Gamma Emerald]

I will suggest you check multiple games given my large meta
also be careful as I have a habit of posting in games that have finished that I didn't play
I'll check who on your team has played with me in the past btw TSQ

[Gamma Emerald]

So Reck and Keely have played with me
Radja has modded a few games I was in
No experience with hiplop iirc

[Gamma Emerald]

All I am seeing here from LQ is "I want to connect Ran and Gamma through them defending each other". I've seen enough.
VOTE: LicketyQuickety

[Gamma Emerald]

All I am seeing here from LQ is "I want to connect Ran and Gamma through them defending each other". I've seen enough.
VOTE: LicketyQuickety

If that is what I am saying, would you say that is inaccurate?

Well yeah, you're trying to argue we're scum through that connection

[Gamma Emerald]

All I am seeing here from LQ is "I want to connect Ran and Gamma through them defending each other". I've seen enough.
VOTE: LicketyQuickety

If that is what I am saying, would you say that is inaccurate?

Well yeah, you're trying to argue we're scum through that connection

Why would that be something that wouldn't be a tell?

The issue is fmpov, I know I'm town so I am calling you out for softballing this accusation

[Gamma Emerald]

All I am seeing here from LQ is "I want to connect Ran and Gamma through them defending each other". I've seen enough.
VOTE: LicketyQuickety

If that is what I am saying, would you say that is inaccurate?

Well yeah, you're trying to argue we're scum through that connection

Why would that be something that wouldn't be a tell?

The issue is fmpov, I know I'm town so I am calling you out for softballing this accusation

Why would me softballing mean I am Scum tho?

It's that you're holding it out like this, like let the act go we can all see it, I at least know how to press someone without blowing my load.

[Gamma Emerald]

I want people to Meta Dive Gamma and tell me if you see any glaringly obvious differences between his Town game and Scum game.

Yes and what does that have to do with ranmaru at ALL.

That's actually one of the problems I have with LQ's push
Why does Ran lie about my meta?

[Gamma Emerald]

So that would be the read.

Ran's defense of Gamma is completely unwarranted. He keeps saying it's a meta read, but he has yet to demonstrate how this game is any different that Gamma's other games. The reason I wanted people to look at Gamma's games is to show that Gamma is remarkably good at copying his Town meta. So then for Ran to just give these lame ass "reasons" for a "Meta Read" which isn't even a distinction between his Town and Scum games shows something funny is going on here.

This is incorrect. I'm not always good at copying my town meta. As town I generally push independently of other people. As scum there is frequently a catalyst for my pushes. That's how I perceive the difference in my town and scum games. If you think differently then explain how.

[Gamma Emerald]

Trust me, he's improving. He's town though. I'll let him respond before I comment further.

What do you mean "he is improving"? Why do you feel Gamma's play is sub-par? From what I have seen, Gamma is a pretty competent player. I don't get this "oh, but he's getting better" angle. Like this is why I am SRing Gamma - because I feel like you are trying to say Gamma is just this helpless little player who can't do anything himself. So then you say he "new" and "improving" to say why he is Town. It doesn't make sense to me.

So you're SRing me
based on someone else read on me
but you're pushing me first.
I recall making a tell about someone pushing associative reads in the wrong order, and I don't recall any time where it's failed significantly. Via that tell I'm pretty sure LQ is scum rn.

[Gamma Emerald]

I just went through flavorless. It seems that you have a Scum tell that I will be looking for.

Tell me, I wanna know if it's the one I made for ran

[Gamma Emerald]

sidenote i feel like it's weird that i'm not obviously town rn? like in the least egotistical way possible (if that's even possible but u know what i mean.) not because my play has been a shining beacon of towniness but because i'm usually left alone on d1. it might be because this is the first game i've purposely joined in a long time that i'm not in with someone i have a history of ez townbloc-ing with but it also kind of makes me feel like there's some kind of agenda because otherwise i'm not a typical textbook town player.

Marquis(4) ~ wgeurts, Cogito Ergo Sum, LicketyQuickety, Dunnstral

like looking at the votes on me gun to my head i'd bare minimum pick lickety as the scum agenda one but that's because i've been seeing mediumlong post after mediumlong post and i know he has the capability to play this way as scum which makes me wary, as well as being opportunistic at the same time while not

too

obvious about it. but i'm still concerned that's too meta oriented as opposed to his actual play here which i haven't had the chance to really read in real time.

idk i kind of expected it to be easier than this? in the selfish way. going for the game with lynch one two scum and done while floating. need more real time reading so i'll read while at work then?

i think this turned out into me admitting i don't currently have any value to bring to town other than that i'm a warm town body who when further heated up becomes a potentially delicious roasted tomato full of juicy squirty accuracy. again in the least egotistical way possible.

i also feel like i'm talking past people but that's my fault. this wasn't the most productive stream of consciousness moment bc my dumb ass decided to start it without even attempting to full read but i'll post it anyway.

god i really need to read

pls don't vote me more i'll def have more time friday bc i dont have a nightlife still

Another post I like, this one seems to have towniness in the prose it uses

@Gamma,

Why did you like this post?

I felt like the way she seemed to be speaking felt towny

Also why are you fetching posts so erratically?

[Gamma Emerald]

I've reread the game to like page 18 or so. Marquis needs rope, badly.

@Ranmaru, what I was noticing about Gamma's Town votes and Scum votes is basically the same kind of thing you talk about in the difference in attitude and fervor for playing. As Town, he's very confident in his votes and he doesn't mess around. In this game, if you look at his votes, they are very "well I guess, not really sure" which looks really bad for him. He also sits on his votes as Town for like, forever. In this game he has voted probably at least twice as often as I would expect. You also rarely see him unvoting in games he is Town. In this game, you seem him unvoting much more frequently.

I looked at these games:
viewtopic.php?p=9919407&user_select%5B% ... 4#p9919407
viewtopic.php?p=9935053&user_select%5B% ... 4#p9935053
viewtopic.php?p=9932701&user_select%5B% ... 4#p9932701
viewtopic.php?p=9935020&user_select%5B% ... 4#p9935020
viewtopic.php?p=9884752&user_select%5B% ... 4#p9884752

I feel like a) this is somewhat fair but explained in a past post but b) there's also some completely wrong meta about my town voting habits. In the past I've been

very

mercurial in my voting. Another player by the name of Realeo has noted I am "trigger-go-lucky" as town. I haven't been that way here because I'm trying to tone down my more erratic play for a logical approach, since I'm kinda sorta trying to impress people. However you say as scum I've voted twice as often as you'd expect. The problem with that is I tend to vote more as town. I feel a good example of this is Mini 1840. Near the end of the day I start waving my vote around as I was trying to get someone else lynched within the blitz time limit. Another example I feel might be good is Open 654. I pushed a lot of people in that game because my opinions kept changing (side note lol I picked two games where I got d1 lynched to demonstrate my town meta). As for unvoting, that's actually a fair point because I definitely remember someone noting that before and being right (think it might have been Infinity324 in some micro), but I will say again that I'm trying not to be crazy with my vote, and with that means taking time to consider where it should go.

[Gamma Emerald]

@Ran I'll get to it when I get to it, I don't like replying out of order as I might get distracted. Best example of that (if you don't mind a long read) is Real Folk Blues Rematch.

[Gamma Emerald]

Also @LQ I suggest you meta dive a few more games because some of those were weird. The Upick their poisons game was a weird game where there wasn't an actual scum faction, and the Valentine's Dance game had a lot of throwing. Plus I haven't been scum for real recently (only scum game I had I got killed in the night I replaced in), so taking recent samples kills the ability to find a scum game.

[Gamma Emerald]

Spoiler:

LQ, Gamma is locktown. He doesn't have enough viable partners. I'm convinced enough that everyone else on the site breaks and scumclaims after being pushed by me yet I don't have any real reason to suspect him anymore with Eddie gone. I can't rationalize his interactions with Eddie as anything besides town. For instance, scum have no business sticking their necks out with that spoiler post unless it served some kind of function. If it can't be solving (because it's suicidal), or distancing (because Eddie wasn't scum), was it muddying waters? There's more to the point ways to do that, and if someone does do that, they aren't spoiling their post. Scum

want

the town to see dirty laundry. This is counter-intuitive to harming postflip associations.

Besides, Rosa has been spewing Gamma town through meta since day 1. Something about being as easy to read as Zachstral the moment they get pushed. It's incidental, but Rosa and Ranmaru are right too.

Where my reads are today: it's day 3 and CES is voting Marquis again. I don't see the case on Marquis beyond peacing out on the early pressure. Just about everything he's said this game has been forgettable. Maybe he's flying under the radar, but I don't give a shit. He's here on day 3 selling the same promise as day 1, with no wagon data in hand, no associatives to be found, doesn't give a shit about interactions, or whether anyone else cares about his reads. Somehow like flies to shit Davsto, Postie, Gamma, Eddie, Dunnstral, LQ, and Ranmaru have all voted there at least once, but he never managed to get this great lynch.

Marquis: 60%

Eddie: 55%
GE: 30%
Postie: 25%
Dunn: 25%

ActionDan: 25%
northsidegal: 20%
LQ: 20%
Davsto: 15%
Lycan: 10%
TSQ: 10%
Ranmaru: 5%

Reminder that Gamma and Postie were shit reads he came up with EoD1 to justify not working with the town. Then when push comes to shove and lynchbait is being served he's okay with lending a hand, for some damn reason. Also Dunnstral is blatant town, but never mind any of that, or the fact that they vote Marquis with him. Definitely upper spectrum scum we're dealing with here.

EddieFenix(4) ~ LicketyQuickety, Postie, Thestatusquo, Davsto
Marquis(3) ~ EddieFenix, Gamma Emerald, Cogito Ergo Sum

like even with me and ran voting lq this is very obviously a dichotomy.

and i still don't know how people are even entertaining lynching me over lq or even eddie for that mastina series of wtf -
i'm explicitly scumreading everyone on my wagon other than CES because it's more easy to believe it stems from him holding a different mafia-the-game mindset and simply not understanding my play while still being town. and even then i know that's nothing i should be using as a townread basis which is why i'm purposely keeping him low priority for now.

About the only thing memorable from Marquis is that he consistently wanted Gamma/LQ with a sprinkle of NSG for most of the game while simultanously townreading CES' nonsense because geriatric.

Meanwhile despite scumreading nsg for never being around, he gave out a truckload of nulls for people for the same reason in 1481.

So is Marquis scum? I could see it, but how can CES know that with such certainty, certainty that suddenly melts away whenever the town locks the lynch for the day? There's never a threat of a tipping point or a push vote if any possibility of a Marquis lynch immediately collapses. That's sus as fuck.

Meanwhile there's Dan, who CES not only talked into scumreading Marquis by EoD1, but he himself was also actively distracting from his own petread. What is the point in any of that? And, sure enough Dan comes on board by the end of the day, probably to show some kind of progress in the game. Whatever.

So, Ranmaru, back to where my reads are today. They're back to the egg.



VOTE: CES

Lynch this shit with fire.

Wait who is Rosa? I'd guess Katyusha/GBT.
Anyway I'm liking the thought behind this and it's honestly making me reconsider my read on Lycan. While I'm discussing this might as well state my thought on NSG as well: I think NSG and Lycan could be scum together, but it's not a lead I feel like pushing currently. I feel like Lycan's push on NSG was kinda trite and like while it feels like a bad way to push a buddy it could also be him making a crap case to push his buddy without any real force behind it.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think the only correct thing you've said so far is that Marquis is a supermarket.

You know, the more I think about it the more I think: "Does Marquis really think they can get away with lurking for 2 days straight as Scum?"

I'm sure there's an aspect of genuine inactivity to it but then it's exacerbated by him being scum. All he's done since his disastrous start is occasionally pop in, post something that's meant to sound vaguely pro-town and peaced out again.

CES

: Can I get two more scum picks for today? Have you re-evaluated your reads? Can you explain your read on Davsto?

My only solid secondary suspicion right now is GE (for, in the words of LQ, his votes; #2106 also looks like it's answering the question "why did Postie survive N1?" rather than "why did Postie die N2?"). I feel like I need to re-read; the Postiekill especially worries me since it suggests scum were happier taking out a slightly scummy player with unknown reads than a more town-looking player with known reads. Davsto has just generally sounded town to me; that's one player I should probably take a slightly closer look at.

Read my rebuttal to LQ's case on me and then tell me what you think.

also looks like it's answering the question "why did Postie survive N1?" rather than "why did Postie die N2?"). I feel like I need to re-read; the Postiekill especially worries me since it suggests scum were happier taking out a slightly scummy player with unknown reads than a more town-looking player with known reads. Davsto has just generally sounded town to me; that's one player I should probably take a slightly closer look at.

Don't think too hard about the NK now

Why not? Lack of NKA is one of the reasons town don't do as well currently.

[Gamma Emerald]

Anyway I'm liking the thought behind this and it's honestly making me reconsider my read on Lycan.

Can you go into why you are liking it and what your read is on Lycan at the end of that? What is your read on NSG individually?

I feel like it's actually making logical considerations. I'd say my read after that is probably just barely a scumlean with a possibility to be bumped into my townreads if he can explain a few things. As for the independent NSG read I'm not sure currently but I'm feeling town rn

[Gamma Emerald]

Each what?

[Gamma Emerald]

Each read. Like you have NSG as town, tell me why you think that. Lycan scumlean, tell me why you think that.

NSg's play as I've seen it so far doesn't feel like her scumplay, it feels more like her townplay. When I ISO her I'll have a better read on her most likely than "meta". As for the Lycan read I'm starting to feel better about his content overall but I still feel a bit displeased with him.

[Gamma Emerald]

Got it. At the top of your head, why does this feel more like her townplay over her scumplay? What would you expect of her scumplay?

I feel like she's being muted but engaged. As scum I'd expect her to feel less engaged. Like the game I feel this is most like for her is Marked For Death 2

[Gamma Emerald]

How is she being muted? Can you give examples?

Like she's not expressing herself much
not sure if I can give examples rn, plus if I were to do so I'd be ISOing her at which point I'd be trying to make a more solid read, so imo what's the point

[Gamma Emerald]

Sorta Kinda Reads List:

I think Town can still win this game. I think it's not really going to be super hard to win either, granted Town can get their heads out of their ass and start working together.

For Town I have:
Dan: Pretty much everything he writes is gold. What he says makes a lot of sense and he carries a perspective that I don't think Scum could fake. Only concern is that with the gold that he writes with, I would expect more pressure on Marquis from him.
North: North is a read like Dan. I just don't think North could viably fake what they are doing as Scum. I am also going with Postie's read on North here.
Dunn: Now this is probably the hardest read for me to make, but suffice to say I like their tone. I talk about this in 2062. That said, they don't have enough content for me to be super confident in this read, so I wouldn't mind some pressure there.
Davsto: I feel his approach to the game is wolds different than mine is. That said, I can't say I have really seen anything that is outright Scummy from him. I mentioned that his reads were generic, but I don't think this necessarily means that this is Scummy. I think my trouble TRing Davsto in the past has been because we just approach the game so much differently. Also, as I reread parts of the game, I saw his entrance and I thought it was actually pretty good. No, he didn't give any content in his first post, but he was extremely light hearted and I feel he wasn't faking it at all.
Ran: I think most of my suspicion of him is just plain old paranoia. Like on paper this guy is never Scum. He also hasn't neglected this game which is something I noticed when he was Scum. As Scum he just is always saying "I'll get to this later"
Gamma: If Ran is Town, then I am just going to believe that Gamma is Town is well, it's as simple as that.
Lycan: He's had solid content and I feel this is another read that I can get swept away by paranoia. His posts are solid, much like Dan and North.

That leaves:
CES: After thinking about it a lot, I think I can see some Scum motive in what he is pushing. I saw he voted Marquis at a time when Marquis wagon was on a down trend, then Marquis got voted by me and someone else. I think this could be telling if Marquis flips Scum.
Shea: Yeah, he just gives me the hebejebes. Call it gut but I don't like him at all. The way he has defended Marquis is like highly suspect to me. There is also his horrendous votes and the fact he has never voted Marquis.
Marquis: No Town quality posts at all, isn't here, can't make a Town post to save their life. This is the lynch I want today.

If I am wrong about the bottom three, it's probably CES I am wrong about.

This is a weird turnabout, what changed your read on Ran and me? I want reason for both, and they should be specific for each of us.

[Gamma Emerald]

Mathdino also has some things he wants me to relay:

He said that he thinks the lynch order of:
Ces > Quick > Dunn > Tsq > Marquis

ends the game, and actually would likely end the game after the second lynch.

@Dan

– Math wants to hear your team's read and thoughts on tsq

@Quick

– Math specifically wants to hear Creature's thoughts and reads when he gets the chance. He also wants to hear your case on marquis (none of us are really seeing marquis scum), and he wants you to consider whether your scumreads make sense with eachother.

@Ran

– Math doesn't know you but he knows a50 and he shares my confidence in you being town so he wants to work with you and your team today because he thinks you're a very likely kill target.
With regard to your read on me he wants a50 to look over my iso and take specific note of things that were influenced by my team / where i mention my team's reads.

@Gamma

– He's baffled you're still townreading cogito ergo sum, and wants to hear more on that.

My CES read is based on me not seeing much scum motivation in his stances. I can refer to specific posts if MD likes.

[Gamma Emerald]

for kmd it started with the bad wagon on him early in the game (where only one of his townreads was on it) and he didn't really see much to change that from there, it seems. see:

@Quick

– Math specifically wants to hear Creature's thoughts and reads when he gets the chance.

He also wants to hear your case on marquis

(none of us are really seeing marquis scum), and he wants you to consider whether your scumreads make sense with eachother.

Could you ask KMD to consider the play from Marquis rather than the wagon on her? I'd be good with just an appraisal of it rather than a foctoring into the read, I just want to see analysis of the play.

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm not sure if I want to fully ISO Gamma anymore because it's like 250 posts and I've read them all before so I just start skimming so I leave it until later

So I'm basically putting off playing the game at all because I know when I come back I "should" do the Emerald ISO but I can't get myself to do it so I go "oh well probably shouldn't bother posting then"

Don't worry about it, just state your current read on me and people will respond to it

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm not sure if I want to fully ISO Gamma anymore because it's like 250 posts and I've read them all before so I just start skimming so I leave it until later

So I'm basically putting off playing the game at all because I know when I come back I "should" do the Emerald ISO but I can't get myself to do it so I go "oh well probably shouldn't bother posting then"

That's fine. Here's something easy and productive you can do instead - ISO Marquis keeping in mind that all he's done since his disastrous start is occasionally pop in, post something that's meant to sound vaguely pro-town and peaced out again. (I stole this wording from a previous post because I am also lazy.

I am with this summary of Marquis play. I also dislike him attacking my experience but that's more personal than the other thing so I won't get on her for that specifically.

[Gamma Emerald]

Alright, what do you think of my votes now? Did you read my response to your description of how I vote?
Besides that most of this seems fairly cut-and-dry. I will state that I recall Ran was feeling burnt out in The Thing Mafia because of having been scum in several consecutive games, so he was disengaged there. My tell on Ran is different, it is that Ran seemed to push someone poorly based on another's reasoning in The Thing Mafia.

[Gamma Emerald]

I want to know why KMD thought the wagon was bad early game.

Yeah, I hate to admit it because of what I said earlier about the wagon, but actually after reading that part of the game over, I think if Marquis flips Scum, that wagon is going to be very telling. I think it makes a few people look very good.

I have to say why I hate to admit it more though. I realize that my line of thinking is so contrary to what the norm is that it's borderline detrimental to Town. I have always been like this in Mafia and it's more annoying than you are probably thinking. I realize that by being so unconventional in what I am looking at compared to others that it's almost impossible for me to actually get a good grasp of what is going on in the game. Players like Llama, tho they don't back up what they are saying very well, have a much better understanding of what is going on in the game at the time. It pains me to admit that I am probably just slow in understanding things. It's really rather embarrassing.

So would you object to a Marquis wagon if it came down to it?

[Gamma Emerald]

LOL someone said they were townreading Marquis and I thought it was you
turns out it was nsg's partner (kmdnumbers I thihnk0

[Gamma Emerald]

You know I kinda agree about Dan being suss on a meta standpoint, I feel like in my last completed game with him he was inactive but engaged (valentine's dance fyi) and he wasn't as in it in the game before that imo (Night Clan).

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay correction
I mean to say "I feel like", because LQ isn't actually sussing Dan, so to agree is kinda wrong
Getting that out of the way now

[Gamma Emerald]

Honestly not really. More recently while I wasn't a fan of your push on me and Ran it wasn't like your past play where I felt you were misrepping people. You were pushing things that were clearly there and you reconsidered when you saw evidence to the contrary.

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm sorry Lycan but like, can you break down what you said last page, I legitimately have no clue what you're trying to prove in most of what you're saying.

[Gamma Emerald]

Not too late to replace, too late to swap, but you can replace sans penalty if the TM runners don't need to step in

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma, I also want you to improve on your casing. I think you are playing well here. I just want you to improve on the casing part, that was a problem some people had with your slot earlier. Like I said to Quick, try limiting your own cases to three points so it's simple and to the point, while considering the big picture and the small details together. Overall, I want you, Quick, and NSG to be working together while I'm dead. At least that way, we have a chance at winning. I was wrong on NSG being scum, I think she's likely town. I want you to look into Shea and Lycan. Let's do this.

I can do this. Plus if it shows improvement in results I'll know how to case people in the future. I've looked at Lycan already but I can look at Shea.

[Gamma Emerald]

Also besides my hard town reads not much is really locked down rn
I feel like we need a scumflip today to really clear the air

[Gamma Emerald]

oh lol thanks
VOTE: Marquis
Not sure on dunnstral wagon, this seems fine tho

[Gamma Emerald]

maybe later but for now I wanna vote Marquis

[Gamma Emerald]

Shea, I just want Marquis over dunn. I want you to look at Davsto hard. get back to me on that. Action Dan too.

I just reread the game, what do you want me to say about them?

High level:

Action dan and davsto are very similar players to me in how they've played. Every time they post I think they're town, but neither of them are actually doing much to advance the game and they don't seem to care about who is voted and why. Like, they say they care, and they have opinions, but they are both doing very little to actually achieve the goals.

I think I could actually see either of them as scum from the reread.

Yeah I'm actually thinking that sort of play would be scumplay for Dan
Fuck it I want this more since I'm more confident in it
VOTE: ActionDan

[Gamma Emerald]

If you like the vote why aren't you following me on it?

[Gamma Emerald]

What the ever-living shit?
Like I feel like TSQ is making sense here, what are you seeing?

[Gamma Emerald]

Yeah I don't see it from that. Also if I think about it like that, it means counter wagons are more important to release pressure on wagons on scum, since there are no roles to help salvage a slot. Counter wagons and also, being under the radar to avoid pressure.

True
So it would be advantageous to look at who pushed wagons from scum to town

[Gamma Emerald]

I've read Davsto in depth now.

He's town, though there isn't a specific post I can point to if I were to give reasoning to this, as it's more holistic. I think his main content, which involves talking to Postie and LQ, clearly come from a town-oriented mindset. I can clearly understand his thinking whenever he makes points or arguments. I also like his read reversal with regard to NSG.

----

TSQ, advancing the game is rather subjective. I've advanced my scum reads and given reasons for them. I've cared about who's voted what and why, especially about Eddie, so I'm wondering why you'd say I'm not. You're voting Dunn with me, so I don't know what more can I do for you. Perhaps be "high impact player"?

Gamma, I rather doubt you'd know what my scum play looks like, but can you explain where this new found confidence comes from, and precisely why you implicitly agree with TSQ's post 2393 ?

I've been in a game where you were scum and you lacked presence imo, in Valentine's dance you were absent most of the time but you still worked at the game,this feels more like the scum game. The confidence comes from me wanting to increase my meta reliance cos I feel like that's a good way to go. As for agreeing with TSQ's post I'm with him on the content analysis but have my own interpretation. I don't like throwing around the phrase "I agree" given past horrors

[Gamma Emerald]

Did NSG respond to that?

[Gamma Emerald]

Ranmaru, reading and critically thinking about Davsto alone took 2 hours. I work slow.

That said.

If there's a specific person you want me to analyze, tell me instead. My general view of everybody is mostly the same Day-in, Day-out.

---

I might have a higher impact if people actually listened to me and considered my reads and why I have them. As far as I can tell, I think Lycan is basically the only one who really looks at them, and his response to it is to basically discredit everything I say. That's my experience so far this game. (It was a pleasant surprise to see Mastina actually care, of all people)

But that's not on me. And I'm not the type to scream "LISTEN TO ME". So that's just how it is.

---

This game and Valentine's are pretty different, and I had presence, I posted huge walls and got townread from it. In any case saying "I want to increase my meta reliance"... doesn't that strike you as fucked up. I mean why would anyone willfully want to do that when there is content which will always be a much better indicator of alignment. I mean just look at the meta arguments levied at Eddie. that didn't turn out well did it?

I didn't really agree with the meta case on Eddie, it was in-game content which made me suss him. Along those lines yeah meta shouldn't be the only thing reads are based on but it helps. And yeah Valentine's and this game are different, you were town that game and you actually kinda mattered, here you don't really seem to be trying.

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm just going to straight up tell you it's not Davsto and it's not NSG, Ranmaru.

Their names keep getting thrown around but they are the same caliber mislynches as Eddie. I am not always the best at finding scum, but I am particularly good at finding town. I'm sure if I'm mislynched this won't mean jack as it meant nothing when Postie and Llmarble died, but I ought to just say it, because I really do not know what would get through to you.


---

Also I mixed up Valentine's and Nightclan. Um. Valentine's was a joke. I literally gave zero fucks.

You gave zero fucks
and yet you were 3/3 on scum iirc

[Gamma Emerald]

you mean beeboy was 3/3. All I did was give my vote to him.

---

Good lord everyone, please take a breather, it's not worth it.

ok that's fair
VOTE: Marquis

[Gamma Emerald]

I think while his interpretation of TSQ's post is VERY odd it's not scummy to me

[Gamma Emerald]

Unvote; Vote: LQ

We got another one.

I have noticed that as soon as I make a read you don't like you vote me.

Is that scum tho
Ran/TSQ/LQ: step off each other. LQ and TSQ you need to just avoid talking to each other

[Gamma Emerald]

Unvote; Vote: LQ

We got another one.

I have noticed that as soon as I make a read you don't like you vote me.

Is that scum tho
Ran/TSQ/LQ: step off each other. LQ and TSQ you need to just avoid talking to each other

What other motivation is there for voting me when he doesn't like my reads and unvoting me when he does like my reads?

idk but ur all being irrational

[Gamma Emerald]

PBPA?

I'm okay with it as a temporary thing but if you do it the whole game it's a little ridiculous
And I'm also pointing out it's a little useless to tell him to stop addressing you because he's going to and despite your upset it's not unreasonable for him to continue to do so because it's part of the game n stuff

pbpa = post-by-post analysis

[Gamma Emerald]

This game feels dead, let's shake it up a bit
I'm instating a little minigame: Let's call it Cop, Masonize, Vig. Here's how it works. You give one unique person for each of the slots Cop, Neighborize, and Vig. Cop is for someone you're unsure about (null to scumreads). Masonize is for those you trust (townreads you think are competent). Vig is for people you just want out of the game. Explain if you like.
I'll start.
Cop Davsto (has consistently been behind so I'm concerned he could be somewhat active lurking)
Masonize Ranmaru (town leader duh)
Vig Marquis (Their flip really should happen)

[Gamma Emerald]

This game feels dead, let's shake it up a bit
I'm instating a little minigame: Let's call it Cop, Masonize, Vig. Here's how it works. You give one unique person for each of the slots Cop, Neighborize, and Vig. Cop is for someone you're unsure about (null to scumreads). Masonize is for those you trust (townreads you think are competent). Vig is for people you just want out of the game. Explain if you like.
I'll start.
Cop Davsto (has consistently been behind so I'm concerned he could be somewhat active lurking)
Masonize Ranmaru (town leader duh)
Vig Marquis (Their flip really should happen)

Probably one of the towniest posts in this entire game, honestly.

What role would you give shea? Doesn't have to be one of those three.

As in use on him or give to him?

[Gamma Emerald]

Also I'd like it if everyone participated

[Gamma Emerald]

This game feels dead, let's shake it up a bit
I'm instating a little minigame: Let's call it Cop, Masonize, Vig. Here's how it works. You give one unique person for each of the slots Cop, Neighborize, and Vig. Cop is for someone you're unsure about (null to scumreads). Masonize is for those you trust (townreads you think are competent). Vig is for people you just want out of the game. Explain if you like.
I'll start.
Cop Davsto (has consistently been behind so I'm concerned he could be somewhat active lurking)
Masonize Ranmaru (town leader duh)
Vig Marquis (Their flip really should happen)

Probably one of the towniest posts in this entire game, honestly.

What role would you give shea? Doesn't have to be one of those three.

As in use on him or give to him?

Use on him. I suppose it would be better with the constraints of the three roles you picked.

Out of the three I'd pick Vig but out of any I'd choose Silence (the posting kind not the voting one)

@Marquis please do the activity I posted

[Gamma Emerald]

lol how dare you credit that to eddie, that's 100% Giggles
but the case looks good honestly

[Gamma Emerald]

Why is no one even acknowledging my activity

[Gamma Emerald]

@TSQ

This game feels dead, let's shake it up a bit
I'm instating a little minigame: Let's call it Cop, Masonize, Vig. Here's how it works. You give one unique person for each of the slots Cop, Neighborize, and Vig. Cop is for someone you're unsure about (null to scumreads). Masonize is for those you trust (townreads you think are competent). Vig is for people you just want out of the game. Explain if you like.
I'll start.
Cop Davsto (has consistently been behind so I'm concerned he could be somewhat active lurking)
Masonize Ranmaru (town leader duh)
Vig Marquis (Their flip really should happen)

This post
I'm kinda cheesed off no one is even responding to the idea or my gamestate analysis even

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm not going to switch again. Join me.

I'm actually considering it
I'll look over CES again and maybe Marq too

[Gamma Emerald]

Mathdino wants to hear creature's thoughts on the marquis wagon, quick.

Creature wants a Shea lynch over CES. That's what he has said about the game today.

First I've heard of this
What are his other thoughts

[Gamma Emerald]

This is white flag.

That doesn't all the sudden mean Scum don't bus.

[Gamma Emerald]

Incorrect question. You should be asking instead, why wouldn't Scum bus Marquis?

• It puts them at one lynch away from an instant loss, a significantly disadvantaged position that they don't need to put themselves in.
  
• If marquis is scum, there are other town lynches would be equally as easy to push as the marquis wagon (and wouldn't be on a scumbuddy).
  
• Nobody gains significant towncred from a scum marquis flip given that he's barely around to provide any interactions and the number of people willing to scumread him.

Plenty scumread him, but it can be read into what is done with that read

[Gamma Emerald]

Also I don't wanna find it again and I don't want to come off as conf biased but Ran said something about Screenplay salvaging a slot as scum that just screamed projecting to me.
In case I get lynched overnight gun to my head scum would be Ran, Dunn, Dan? maybe.
My most confident town to not lynch anytime before a LYLO would be Shea, Gamma, nsg, CES (yes for real), and... ??? those
LQ in the middle. Cloud of I don't wanna deal right now. I could be wrong.

wut about projecting? what was being projected by ran?

[Gamma Emerald]

Want to hear from Gamma, TSQ and Dan. TSQ especially I think, can't let him lurk this part of the game out right now.

What's up?

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm not going to switch again. Join me.

I'm actually considering it
I'll look over CES again and maybe Marq too

Did you get around to doing this? What came of it?

Incorrect question. You should be asking instead, why wouldn't Scum bus Marquis?

• It puts them at one lynch away from an instant loss, a significantly disadvantaged position that they don't need to put themselves in.
  
• If marquis is scum, there are other town lynches would be equally as easy to push as the marquis wagon (and wouldn't be on a scumbuddy).
  
• Nobody gains significant towncred from a scum marquis flip given that he's barely around to provide any interactions and the number of people willing to scumread him.

Plenty scumread him, but it can be read into what is done with that read

it certainly can be, and i think from what i

have

read into of that, it indicates that he's town. did you come to a different conclusion based on the number of people willing to scumread him?

Unfortunately not yet, other things happened. As for Marquis suspectors I think it will be easier to sort with a flip of Marquis.

[Gamma Emerald]

=============
Game Winning Reads
=============

----

Town

----

Gamma: My read on Gamma remains the same. As I have explained in my #2217, this seems much different then his scum game or his third party game. His 'forced' reactions are null, he does it as both alignments. I like his questioning in his #2283, and I like his reconsideration of Quick after Quick rightfully explains himself. In Penguin Mafia Redux, he wasn't actually scumhunting as much. Here he has been doing plenty of that. I would also like those pushing for Gamma (CES) to look into my #2217 and tell me their thoughts. || Basically, my read remains unchanged on Gamma.

Lycanfire: Each time I push him, my gut screams town. I have actually liked his content and analysis up until now. His #2723 is a good post. I also see plenty of gamesolving from Lycan, I just think his push has been a bit misguided, although it would be fair to understand why he has felt that way. I think it's fair to understand why we all are wrong right now. We are too involved. Which reminds me, Lycan is also showing passion for his read, which I read as townie. Town.

CES: He seems to be slightly town, and I was pushing him on his mediocre push on Marquis. I don't see the same energy as I would expect, yet also if [Action Dan / LQ / NSG] is the team, he is mostly town reading them and has them up too high. I have considered the Postie Kill was made due to my own reads being highly incorrect, but I'm thinking the reason may have been to frame CES/Shea (Llama kill) and then Dunnstral with the Postie kill. In fact the whole town is imploding due to 'this person wouldn't pick scum' reasons. I'm going to say this now: Throw all that out the window, now. Look at the play, and see if it lines up with progressing the town win condition. That is all. I think he makes a great point on Action Dan in his #2715, stating that AD felt strongly that Eddie picked a town role PM but hasn't really defended him until Eddie was near dead anyway. Slight town.

Shea: Has been a bit absent, but I can understand since LQ riled him up and he isn't able to find anything with Dunn. I think his #2393 and his #2423, and #2421 are good posts. NSG is starting a trend of not replying to a few things, yet although subtle, is slightly suspicious. I was mostly thinking he was scum with LQ, but I don't think that is as likely now. Overall I didn't really have a problem with his D3 play. I think he is town reading the wrong person. (LQ) Even so, I think he is right on NSG and Action Dan. The end of Day 2 was actually reasonable from him as well. I'm starting to think he's most likely misguided with his read on LQ (which I can't blame him for). Slight town.

Davsto: With Davsto, I couldn't really get a strong vibe from him either way. Which I thought may have been scum trying to be under the radar, but he is on the radar more than Action Dan. I also like his #1725. I also like that he didn't join me on a whim when I asked for his vote. He seems to be trying, and he has updated his reads. Slight town.

----

Null

----

Dunnstral: Repeating what I have said earlier: The only thing I get is null. I do like his votes, on Marquis, and his push on T-chill did seem like he had conviction for it. He has been present, and voting, but that's about it. Not seeing any scum intent from him, though. A50 does have him in the scum pool, which is the only thing I have in the back of my mind to keep in mind when reading Dunnstral. An important post I think, is his #2034, which states he isn't invested. The good thing to keep in mind is, that even though he isn't invested, he's still present. || I haven't really seen much from him today, he's just wondering about the kill for now. If we don't lynch scum before him for at least today / tomorrow, then he needs to die. Yet, I do like his reads list. It would show that he's 2/3 before I even re-considered. Null.

Marquis: I think his reads are surface level. CES says he is competent but I don't get that feeling from him, since he isn't looking at intent. Yet, he's not fully caught up, he's only skimming so his reads make sense there. I have looked at his meta, and only see one town game that seemed solid, others it is 50 / 50 but usually is lynched / mislynched due to his inactivity. I dislike his vote on Dunn, I do think it's possible he may be scum trying to seem town and worm himself in after I give him the opportunity. That's the best he can do to survive without claims. His early play was awkward, but I can see it as him finding scum but then letting scum slip because they are both in the same boat. I think his read on me is also due in part to paranoia, which I can see as coming from town. Marquis is null.
----

Scum

----

Quick: Here's my original case on LQ: Quick Case. In short, his reads are not genuine. He seems to have some good gems, but he reconsiders them with superficial thought. He isn't reading thoroughly, and snaps quickly to discredit rather then determine alignment. Examples: #1721, #2410, #2399; He also seems to be intent on sowing confusion rather then understanding, to distract. He cannot respond to my question of 'what have you done to help town and progress the town win condition?' #2725. Every time I push him he responds with 'This is what I do as town' yet he can't answer to the results he has gained. He omguses each person that pushes him in an obtuse manner, to seem town. He currently sits on a null read due to policy. He is scum, and dies after Action Dan. I encourage everyone, most importantly Shea, to ignore anything he says from here on out. His word means nothing in this town when he can't even answer to the good he may have done the town.

NSG: I think she's scum due to fence sitting, lacking presence, and not committing to the Eddie wagon without a stance on it. She states her lack of motivation was due to having bad posts, but I never got that feeling, and she was never pressured. I certainly think that she is more likely scum who actually lost interest in keeping up. She posts in other games and seems to have more energy for those and leaves this in the back burner. She also hasn't seemed to re-evaluate her CES read, she seems to be more harping on him and trying to find anything she can on him rather then actually try to determine his alignment. #1963 || I began to reconsider and think if maybe she had a point. My concern is that she doesn't seem as eager to talk with CES as she would expect him to be (since she says he isn't sorting). This looks very bad on her. She's putting off the most important thing, and that's interacting with her main scum read. It takes myself calling her out to get her in thread. Her #2581 pinged me in a similar way to Action Dan's post after I voted Eddie. (Which put Eddie at 5 votes) #2423 Is a good post from Shea as well, which looks bad on NSG. #2634 Is suspicious to me as I am pushing for CES, she states openness to Dunn. Compromising is a good skill, but not so early in the day. I felt it was out of place with her focus. NSG's #2528 has been going unexplained for a while. It feels like she stated that to appease me rather then to actually do anything with it. (She has said she wavered on him, and her read change back to TSQ is unexplained)

Action Dan: It seemed he tried to play more of a role during Day 1 then Day 2. He states that for him, this game is a town hunt since he's having trouble gaining scum reads. #1147 Yet, some of his town reads aren't that solid. I also get the feeling Action Dan is trying to stay under the radar, especially during Day 2. His #1698 felt weird, timing wise. This was after I voted Eddie, and Eddie had 5 votes at the time. Dan had wanted to give his snap feelings of the dueling wagons, and not that much else. Two things to note: In Political Corruption Mafia, he was more present then he was here, yet in our hydra game together, he was busy and I was the person mostly posting. (Yet, I had it down on lock) I would understand if he was really busy, but the comparison of presence between Day 1 and Day 2, is pretty visible. I think it's more likely he's scum who is having trouble scum reading town players and has to resort to 'town lists' and note that he did not give out a full reads list. Dan intends to continue pushing Dunn for using a crude defense mechanism while not casing anyone himself. Dan isn't really looking at the intent though, nor is he when he mentions Marquis not bringing up the read on me earlier. Dan comes back to defend himself to me when I am talking to Shea about him and Davsto. #2431 This is right before Quick unleashes an obtuse attack on Shea, which is a distraction from the real thing. I felt Dan was coming in only because there was attention going his way, as this happened after I was talking to Shea about him and Davsto. Now let's look at these quotes:

Spoiler: quotes

Action dan and davsto are very similar players to me in how they've played. Every time they post I think they're town, but neither of them are actually doing much to advance the game and they don't seem to care about who is voted and why. Like, they say they care, and they have opinions, but they are both doing very little to actually achieve the goals.

Nope. I totally get what shea is saying. It makes more sense as a personality trait than that they are necessarily Scummy. I'm somewhat of a psychology buff, who reads complicated shit regarding psychology in my free time.

In short, Shea's analysis was calm and composed and made sense. Quick's response was to discredit it saying it's a personality trait. I agree that Action Dan isn't really trying to progress the game for town. CES's #2715 is a good point on Action Dan, which shows that CES is paying attention and gives me slight town vibes.

This reminds me of a certain someone's post in another game:

#1461

Townies generally want to influence the game and lynch scum; elk and Aneninen both knew when deadline would be and what their choices were; I can't imagine just letting deadline pass by and let the rest of the game make that decision for me. Ank's unvote is a more extreme example of that since he was actually here but actively chose to limit his own influence.

Which is a very good point and I feel that really fits with Action Dan. (And NSG)

I took the time to read the Marquis section here and it actual provided a good look into how Mqrquis play here compares to her norm, which is to say it seems close to it.
UNVOTE:
Definitely rereading Marquis when I get the chance now

[Gamma Emerald]

Dunnstral

: Vote Action Dan with me. You scum read him. Join me.

Marquis

: Vote Action Dan, you have him above me and Dunnstral. Join me.

CES

: You have him as null. (And you are questioning why you had town vibes from him) Realize you might be wrong on Marquis, but the same profile applies to Dan, but even more so as he has been very invisible.

Shea

: I was misguided with my read on you. Please sheep me once again, as LQ has confused me. I think this is our best shot at lynching scum.

Gamma

: Vote Dan with me.

Let us lynch Dan today.

Is possible but I want to review the others before going with that.

[Gamma Emerald]

Yeah I see you don't have a response to me.

I was typing up something towards Lycanfire. What's the purpose of this post?

I'm angry that's why. You asked me to evaluate LQ's posts in bad faith and you know it. And we were having a conversation and you veered off to tell lycanfire to vote me. So you can have that snide remark.

I also am 100% betting that you asking me for a sorted read's list is in bad faith also but here you go:

Never lynch:

NSG
Davsto
Shea
Ranmaru, though I dunno how I feel about this anymore. Probably still town just literally leading town off a cliff every chance you get

Pretty much never lynch but sometimes I have the slightest bit of doubt

LQ

People I think are town with a couple resrevations

Lycanfire
CES

I really don't know where to put this person but this isn't a null category

Gamma

scummy

Marquis
Dunn

AD pls
Just state what you have been thinking of me so far in-transit or w/e
stop just saying "I can't sort him meh"

[Gamma Emerald]

Can someone explain to me why Marquis just goes full ballistic in d1 twilight
like I'm not sure of the scum motivation either tbh
besides that it's been either excuses or small smatterings of activity that I'm not sure if I like or not

[Gamma Emerald]

Can someone explain to me why Marquis just goes full ballistic in d1 twilight
like I'm not sure of the scum motivation either tbh
besides that it's been either excuses or small smatterings of activity that I'm not sure if I like or not

Before you get to that point, you have to believe that Marquis earnestly had not idea what was happening in the game, since they voted me after the hammer.

So that's probably town-indicative

[Gamma Emerald]

Well it depends on why she says she did it.

@NSG

why weren't you very active d1?

[Gamma Emerald]

To save you time Gamma:

as for why i've been gone i don't really have an answer, every time i go to start a post i either don't or i start something and then delete it for being too bad

Eh that feels kinda scummy
like why haven't I seen this behavior from you before NSG? I don't see you as one to revise so heavily

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Northsidegal
There has been an influx of evidence dug up recently that has made me suspect her. I think a vote should be in order at this point.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Northsidegal
There has been an influx of evidence dug up recently that has made me suspect her. I think a vote should be in order at this point.

Do share what this influx of evidence is...

The lack of questions answered, the deduction that NSG's activity patterns might be from scum, etc. etc.

[Gamma Emerald]

Ran, you made the point that people who hate scum would take it for the wifom value. I want you to look at the names of every single player who has flipped scum in this tournament. Not making any further comment there. Just look at them.

This is gambler's fallacy. I'll check your team but it's not fair to attribute the thinking of other teams to yours.
Predicting specific response by Marquis in 3...2...

[Gamma Emerald]

Ran, you made the point that people who hate scum would take it for the wifom value. I want you to look at the names of every single player who has flipped scum in this tournament. Not making any further comment there. Just look at them.

This is gambler's fallacy. I'll check your team but it's not fair to attribute the thinking of other teams to yours.
Predicting specific response by Marquis in 3...2...

No, it's NOT Fucking Gambler's Fallacy. WTF?

Okay but my point was you can't make the same analysis for all teams. Gambler's Fallacy just sounded like the right term.

VOTE: Northsidegal
There has been an influx of evidence dug up recently that has made me suspect her. I think a vote should be in order at this point.

Do share what this influx of evidence is...

The lack of questions answered, the deduction that NSG's activity patterns might be from scum, etc. etc.

I think I heard a

might

in there... How does this make you so sure that North is Scum?

Did I

say

I was sure NSG was scum? No.

Gamma is getting more and more interesting. I think that is where I am going next.

You wanna tell me what the hell this is supposed to mean?

[Gamma Emerald]

Dunn has a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Llamarble is essentially a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Postie looks more or less like a naked vote as well.
Wgeurts is voting marquise because there is nothing better to vote atm. This looks kinda opportunistic.
GE vote is prolly the Scummiest of all of them, tbh. Weird that they say Llama is wrong about Postie but right about Marquise. How does GE know Llama is Town if they have such a disparity of reads?

Creature thinks Eddie, Dan and North are Town.

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

You're capable of more than this as town and my team mates don't think you've been towny either.

Honesly yeah I agree on this post being weird. I was able to make something of Dunnstral's vote, and I never said I knew Llamar was town.

What did you see in Dunn's vote on Marquis that you thought didn't need any explanation?

Aren't you forgetting something? Something that has been brought up multiple times?

[Gamma Emerald]

Actually no LQ keep going, I want to see your finale here

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay but my point was you can't make the same analysis for all teams. Gambler's Fallacy just sounded like the right term.

You're making the same generalization like you did about your point with bussing. Are you saying that there's something different to that analysis when it comes to me? If so, please elaborate. If not, this doesn't mean anything.

What bussing generalization?
Also the point is that each team makes their own decisions. I need to see each one's and analyze those.

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay but my point was you can't make the same analysis for all teams. Gambler's Fallacy just sounded like the right term.

You're making the same generalization like you did about your point with bussing. Are you saying that there's something different to that analysis when it comes to me? If so, please elaborate. If not, this doesn't mean anything.

What bussing generalization?
Also the point is that each team makes their own decisions. I need to see each one's and analyze those.

You need to pick up the slack!!! <- Yes, this is multiple exclamation points, deal.

I think Gamma is dumb or Scum.

lmao

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay but my point was you can't make the same analysis for all teams. Gambler's Fallacy just sounded like the right term.

You're making the same generalization like you did about your point with bussing. Are you saying that there's something different to that analysis when it comes to me? If so, please elaborate. If not, this doesn't mean anything.

What bussing generalization?
Also the point is that each team makes their own decisions. I need to see each one's and analyze those.

These two posts, my response to which I don't believe you've answered:

Spoiler:

This is white flag.

That doesn't all the sudden mean Scum don't bus.

Incorrect question. You should be asking instead, why wouldn't Scum bus Marquis?

• It puts them at one lynch away from an instant loss, a significantly disadvantaged position that they don't need to put themselves in.
  
• If marquis is scum, there are other town lynches would be equally as easy to push as the marquis wagon (and wouldn't be on a scumbuddy).
  
• Nobody gains significant towncred from a scum marquis flip given that he's barely around to provide any interactions and the number of people willing to scumread him.

Plenty scumread him, but it can be read into what is done with that read

Sure, each team makes their own decisions, but do you have something specific to say about how a general trend would be violated in my case specifically?

Pedit – Gamma is still town.

First off, why is a generalization bad? The point in that first post is that you can't say scum don't bus cos white flag. As for the second, the point I'm making is you can still try to sort things involving Marquis. Who actually bnelieves their read and who is just along for the ride. Also, how do these things relate to your picking scum for you? Seems you're just misdirecting.

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma is not dumb, he's making good points. (That I in fact would not have thought of) Gamma's town.

Quit putting yourself on a fucking pedestal... I haven't seen you catch any Scum yet.

Haven't seen anyone do it yet, cos no scum flips. Nice shade.

[Gamma Emerald]

Here, I'll help you out:


If your claim is that he "wolfy jumped in the thread" and made a vote based off of wanting to "push a wagon" you'd think maybe he'd have chosen actually a wagon, instead of just randomly throwing a vote at the wind in a place where no one else was.

More to the point, I find it deeply unsettling that you think this is the most important thing to go off of at this point. We have 10 whole pages bruh.

VOTE: gamma emerald

I thought others voted before him, huh
UNVOTE:

Also I'm not wild about the fact that your first instinct was to attack me instead of trying to figure out what I meant. As town when someone says something to me that on face doesn't make sense my first reaction is generally to try to clarify, not to fos them.

I thought you were trying to br obtuse, now I see you were right I'm no longer FOSing you

Ok but why are you voting dunn? Your vote for him is nonsense and there's a lot of scum motivation to park on the lurker who is literally doing nothing, and then make a big show about it as if you had some hyper special read on him and you didn't understand why others didn't. What do you think about the literal anything else thats happened in this game? Why do you think that dunn is the best vote when there is so much going on? Why were you unaware that it wasn't a wagon vote when you've placed your entire sorting efforts in this game into figuring out what happened in that one random early vote?

Okaaaay you're blowing this way out of proportion and I don't like it. I literally unvoted the second I realized my mistake. And the reason I thought there was a wagon there was I remembered votes on someone Llalmarble suspected, and knew some people were suspecting Marquis, so I thought the votes were on her. I get that there is some scumminess to what I did, but I didn't just votepark, I actually thought I had a point. And I've asked other questions and made other reads, so what I'm seeing here is you boiling down my content to one misguided push. Given that and the fact Something_Smart is telling me not to trust you, I feel comfortable with this.
VOTE: TheStatusQuo

This is one of the weirdest progressions I have ever seen..

IDK why Shea doesn't press Gamma on that mistake Gamma made more than this and instead later ends up TRing Gamma based on his 395 which I personally found severely lacking, and I don't get this rapid turn around from Gamma on Shea...

Someone said Gamma's 180 on Shea is Townie, I completely disagree. It makes me think there is a very real change of there being at least one Scum in Shea/Gamma. This is due to Shea's turnabout read on Gamma based on 395. It just doesn't seem like Gamma deserves to be let off the hook that easily.

People (pretty much everyone) are saying Gamma is Town here. Since I think there is one Scum in Shea/Gamma I'm going back to this:

VOTE: TSQ

Why is it one of us? And why back off so soon? You seeing how foolish your push was? Plus if the progression's so weird why not continue to push me? As for the progression itself I realized TSQ was correct to push on my Dunnstral read, and backed off until he didn't back off, which made me think he was pushing a dead line to get me MLed. I started letting off him when I felt he didn't actual understand how the situation shifted.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: TSQ

So after someone you previously voted states a suspicion on your longstanding patsy, you go back to them? Fishy.

[Gamma Emerald]

I am starting to think you are Scum actually. Reason being is that your read(s) (at least on me) seem to come from something based on my stances and change on a whim, rather than any deductive thought. Regardless of if you can case me (or others for that matter) is really of no consequence. What I am looking at is how your reads are almost by definition changing based on the reads of others without looking at the reasoning behind those reads from those players. I don't see a Town motivation for this considering it occupies manipulation as opposed to an unbiased presentation.

They change by my feeling and by your actions, not reads. You stating I am scum reading you for not liking your read is an obvious misrepresentation. Your tone when addressing me here is much different then: #2442 or this: #2666. It makes me wonder why you take on that tone when I'm bringing up a concern. You bring up 'why you do things as town' yet you still have not answered my #1790. Compare the scum motivation and town motivation and explain why you think I don't have town motivation for what I'm doing, and then I'll explain to you the town motivation. I also am wondering why you didn't respond to my #2350. I'm fine with your Shea read. If you presented a serious case like you are doing so in your 2689, I'd look into it. I didn't get your push in those pages when I voted you, it seemed like a distraction rather then a push to wagon Shea. Also another thing to note that is you always omgus me. Why do you always omgus me?

I don't think you understand what I was saying because you in no way answered what I was saying, at all.

Don't really see why you're saying this pushes a specific wincon Ran?

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: LQ
I'm not a fan of their recent takes on things. Also they keep going backwards any time they try to push me it feels.

[Gamma Emerald]

I agree, but I think we should stick to NSG for now. Tell me what you think of Action Dan's #2937.

I don't like his "dumb or scum" thing. Honestly "dumb or scum" is the dumbest fucking thing anyone's said this game, and at least 3 have used it. His vouch is strange and I'm gonna look at his reads on day 2 cos a townread on Eddie is pretty condemning.

[Gamma Emerald]

After reading CES/Marquis in more depth, I think CES is probably town. Almost all posts later than those in early D1 look town to me

As for Marquis my thinking is that everytime I have seen a post addressed to LQ in one way or another, either containing a vote or not, I don't think the scumread is justified. I suppose what I didn't like most was its development, from post to post, from 455 onwards. Most everything else I consider null. The reaction to Mastina's D2 contribution I can see both ways. Earlier I thought the mentions of teammates were nebulous, only intended to be seen without much purpose, but recently I can see more clearly SK's presence, though minor.

---

VOTE: Dunnstral

After screenplay's lynch and flip I looked back and thought apart from the Tchill push, there is just a void of anything there, and what little there is I don't like, D2 posting included.

The dual wagons on LQ and Eddie are alarming. They are precisely the mislynches I believe Llmarble was hoping to avoid and I very much disagree with Postie and Mathdino's assessments on Llmarble's NKA.

I still don't believe Ranmaru is scum, and likely won't ever, but I'll go ahead and look into Mastina's casework. Also hi.

At this point the only person I don't have a concrete opinion on is GE. So I guess along with actually reading D2, I'll reread him.

OH HO WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH SOME FIRE HERE
>dual wagons on LQ + eddie are alarming...mislynches Llamar was trying to avoid
Thanks to Ran, this is fresh in my mind: LQ and Eddie were two of the poeple in the "should lynch" zone for Llamar. So this is a crock of bullshit.

[Gamma Emerald]

Well yes, I'm not blind.

As far as a read list goes, it's precisely the same as the last I gave except move CES to the town column.

Thus the not-town column reads as such: "Dunnstral; Marquis; GE" with the caveat that I haven't formed a complete read on GE.

To signal where I stand with both wagons mainly, but if my opinion is worth anything, perhaps slow the roll a tad and maybe even give people a chance to question me about the reads.

Also AD hasn't really shown much motivation to sort past having these reads.

And btw on the initial reason for ISO: a townread of eddie, but none of this bravado? ahahaha AD you've made some fatal missteps.
VOTE: ActionDan
ESKETIT

[Gamma Emerald]

I'll do NSG,that implicates AD anyway
VOTE: NSG

[Gamma Emerald]

Actually let's go over this one by one, willingness to go for AD

Davsto - idk
Lycanfire - should be willing
Gamma Emerald - willing
Cogito Ergo Sum - idk prolly not
Marquis - idk
ActionDan - lolno
northsidegal - maybe?
Thestatusquo - possible
Dunnstral - idk
LicketyQuickety - ehh
Ranmaru - willing

Can we get 2 more after me/ran/TSQ/Lycan?

[Gamma Emerald]

First off, why is a generalization bad?

I'm not saying it's "bad". I'm saying that you're not actually making a concrete point about anything when you speak in generalizations. It's not meaningful.

The point in that first post is that you can't say scum don't bus cos white flag.

I've given good reasons why I think scum

aren't

bussing right now – is your response simply "it's white flag"?

As for the second, the point I'm making is you can still try to sort things involving Marquis. Who actually bnelieves their read and who is just along for the ride.

Sure – I don't disagree, but i fail to see the relevance of this to the argument that scum aren't bussing.

Also, how do these things relate to your picking scum for you? Seems you're just misdirecting.

It's not misdirecting – i'm saying that the vague generalizations that you're using to ignore the fact that i would never pick scum was similar to the vague generalizations you used against my points that scum weren't bussing.

ok then, guess the first point is fair. As for the next two things when did you say scum weren't bussing? Because that affects what I think of the statement. Also I can see how you can connect the generalizations. btw I'm gonna start working on covering every scumflip, the slot occupants, and if I determine something wrt you team that makes me rethink you I might reconsider, but there's also AD stepping up all of a sudden to defend you, which he didn't do for Eddie, a townflip.

[Gamma Emerald]

I'll do NSG,that implicates AD anyway
VOTE: NSG

Not sure if i already asked you this, but explain the reasons you're scumreading me, gamma?

I believe I gave a brief summary earlier, I can quote that

[Gamma Emerald]

ok then, guess the first point is fair. As for the next two things when did you say scum weren't bussing? Because that affects what I think of the statement. Also I can see how you can connect the generalizations. btw I'm gonna start working on covering every scumflip, the slot occupants, and if I determine something wrt you team that makes me rethink you I might reconsider, but there's also AD stepping up all of a sudden to defend you, which he didn't do for Eddie, a townflip.

I forget, it was when i was talking about the marquis wagon.

I don't mean any offense by this, but your logic is incorrect in that last sentence there. Yes, eddie was town and dan did not step up to defend him. Does that necessarily imply something different about my alignment because dan is now defending me? That doesn't make sense – we're entirely different players.

What's more, let's say that it really is me and dan as scum. Making this play would practically be suicide for the scumteam – if people follow what he says and he flips scum, that instantly incriminates me whereas if i were simply to get lynched and flip scum he would be better served by distancing himself from me.

I feel like his inconsistency is scum-motivated. It could be to implicate you though, and it's not just that which is making me scumread him.

[Gamma Emerald]

btw I'm thinking based on your teams flips you might be town, cos I think kmd prefers town? Can some extarnal source tell me if I'm right or rong herre

[Gamma Emerald]

I feel like his inconsistency is scum-motivated. It could be to implicate you though, and it's not just that which is making me scumread him.

First question – why is it scum motivated?

Second question – is it even an inconsistency in the first place if he felt that eddie was not worth defending whereas i am?

Either he's defending his buddy or acting strange to implicate you. As town it feels weird. And he seemed like he considered Eddie worth defending with his comment on the Eddie and LQ wagons being bad, which is another reason I scumread him

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: AD
Unlike LQ I think we can swing this.

[Gamma Emerald]

Either he's defending his buddy or acting strange to implicate you. As town it feels weird.

What's with this dichotomy? Why is it impossible that he's defending someone he townreads?

Because why wouldn't he take the same defense day 2? it's oddly timed I feel.

[Gamma Emerald]

Either he's defending his buddy or acting strange to implicate you. As town it feels weird.

What's with this dichotomy? Why is it impossible that he's defending someone he townreads?

Because why wouldn't he take the same defense day 2? it's oddly timed I feel.

Like I said, me and eddie are different people. Is it impossible to you that dan considers me with defending where eddie wasn't?

Why though? Honestly Eddie would seem more worth defending, he was more active than you.

[Gamma Emerald]

Btw, gamma, you didn't quote your reasons for scumreading me.

I thought it was clear that I would do it if you didn't want to go looking. I guess I have to do everything...

[Gamma Emerald]

Well yes, I'm not blind.

As far as a read list goes, it's precisely the same as the last I gave except move CES to the town column.

Thus the not-town column reads as such: "Dunnstral; Marquis; GE" with the caveat that I haven't formed a complete read on GE.

To signal where I stand with both wagons mainly, but if my opinion is worth anything, perhaps slow the roll a tad and maybe even give people a chance to question me about the reads.

Also AD hasn't really shown much motivation to sort past having these reads.

And btw on the initial reason for ISO: a townread of eddie, but none of this bravado? ahahaha AD you've made some fatal missteps.
VOTE: ActionDan
ESKETIT

I feel like I keep asking Ran this but I'll ask you too.

Why should I feel the need to resort anything when my scum reads are unflipped and my town reads have flipped town thus far. T-chill was the only person of the flipped people so far that I thought had an ok chance of flipping scum.

Also in case you haven't noticed, It's D3 not D2 and we've mislynched twice. It's getting increasingly worrisome that town is getting in it's own way to mislynch people like NSG. You don't particularly seem to get that.

The only missteps I've made this game was not being louder. Now I am. I find it jarring that that of all things is your motivation for your vote. I suppose you can vote me in place of NSG too but I don't know why you scum read her either

lots of cuts

OK this explains some things. I get the being louder part. But you still need to tell me why you misconstrued Llama's post

[Gamma Emerald]

If you think that's the only thing I've been saying you haven't listened to a word I've said.

Not thinking about team composition is also both willful ignorance and willful stupidity. Again - look at every player who's flipped scum this entire tournament. That's not just a defense of myself, that's also a part of my argument on who's scum.

AGAIN

, why do you keep thinking it couldn't be different between teams? If everyone thought alike do you think we'd have such a shitty bipartisan system in the US? No! My point is not everyone thinks alike and constantly pushin tha tline is getting on my nerves.

[Gamma Emerald]

But you still need to tell me why you misconstrued Llama's post

I think people misconstrue which one I'm talking about:

Not 886

But rather 1160, that's the one where he calls Eddie/LQ lynchbaity, though not town. That's the only marble post I've ever referenced.

I'm referring to the posts ran has been quoting. Alright then, that's the

only

Llamar post you've referred to?

[Gamma Emerald]

Also, I just want to throw this out there:

I absolutely hate this "tournament solving" perspective. I think its mostly nonsense. It boils down to either wifom (who on the team would take a scum PM, which mainly only works in the context of extremes, like a team that has one very good scum players and four very bad ones.) OR it's the gamblers fallacy. (all games were rolled independently of each other. Player A on team 1 rolling a scum PM does not do anything to increase or decrease the chance that player B on team 1 also rolled a scum PM. The same way me getting pocket kings in a hand of poker does nothing to influence the likelihood of me getting pocket kings on the next hand. The two events are independent of each other in terms of probability.)

Even if there were some merit to it, which as I said I don't think there is, there's no indication to me that its better than just regular ol' scum hunting and meta analysis for finding scum players. I think that's been pretty reflected in my teams thoughts over the course of the tournament.

Basically I hate it and I wish a50 would stop doing it. Obviously I can't make him stop, but I'm giving it zero credence in my analysis of this game.

Actually it's

not

Gambler's fallacy. Roles were given to teams, then teams picked their roles. So there is team input as to who gets which role.

[Gamma Emerald]

ok fair

[Gamma Emerald]

Either he's defending his buddy or acting strange to implicate you. As town it feels weird.

What's with this dichotomy? Why is it impossible that he's defending someone he townreads?

Because why wouldn't he take the same defense day 2? it's oddly timed I feel.

Like I said, me and eddie are different people. Is it impossible to you that dan considers me with defending where eddie wasn't?

Why though? Honestly Eddie would seem more worth defending, he was more active than you.

You do remember that not even eddie was fighting his lynch right?

That's not what happened? I recall him+mastina fighting real hard

[Gamma Emerald]

Pardon?

[Gamma Emerald]

Pardon?

The whole reason Eddie was lynched is because he tried to lurk out his wagon...

I don't recall that, will check that

[Gamma Emerald]

I promised myself I would never look at mafia on my lunch break but here I am
VOTE: ran
Please just lynch this already
Or someone other than me at the very least even begin to consider him being scum.
Dan and team doesn't count. Even though I hate liking it

It's been going around my head but I view scum!Ran as a follower not a leader

[Gamma Emerald]

Action Dan

: Sheep me. Trust me, remember when we hydrad? Did I not find scum? I want you to trust me, since you say you are having trouble finding scum. Follow me.

Shea

: I want you on this wagon. I want you to reconsider what Reck said. It doesn't look like anyone is interested in Dunn right now. Join me.

Davsto

: I also want you on this wagon. I am thinking CES is likely town. You town read me, so please join me.

Quick

: Join me on Marquis, since you null read him right now. You shouldn't have a problem joining then. Why wagon a person you consistently town read for most of the game? Get on this magnificent wagon with me.

Dunnstral

: Vote Action Dan with me. You scum read him. Join me.

Marquis

: Vote Action Dan, you have him above me and Dunnstral. Join me.

CES

: You have him as null. (And you are questioning why you had town vibes from him) Realize you might be wrong on Marquis, but the same profile applies to Dan, but even more so as he has been very invisible.

Shea

: I was misguided with my read on you. Please sheep me once again, as LQ has confused me. I think this is our best shot at lynching scum.

Gamma

: Vote Dan with me.

Let us lynch Dan today.

CES

: Join me. You scum read him as well.

Marquis

: Join me. You have him above Dunn and Myself.

Lycanfire

: Join me.

Dunnstral

: Join me, you scumread Action Dan.

Unvote; Vote: Action Dan

I also just want to point out how hilariously tone-deaf these things are. every. single. time.

What do you mean by "tone deaf"?

[Gamma Emerald]

BTW, Dunn's votes look horribly opportunistic, and then when the Town lynch is basically ensured, Dunn opportunistically hops off the wagon.

eck
might follow on this

[Gamma Emerald]

nothing else is coming to mind for me to say but i still need 4 more posts.

there was lovely weather outside today.

Why do you need 4 more posts...

[Gamma Emerald]

Cogito Ergo Sum is Scum.

1. Vote / Reads Progression

Let's start back at the start of the game. CES votes llamarble and never explains why. He later calls for dueling marble-marquis wagons, and again never explains why. Llamarble calls him out on this, saying that he doesn't understand why he'd want that as town. This is CES' response:

It's not always about you, 'marble.

He later describes this vote as something he chose to do instead of putting down a serious vote on the marquis wagon.

He calls Marquis the scummiest of the three lurkers (Dunn, Marquis, Wgeurts), and again doesn't explain why. He makes a lot of posts just calling marquis scummy around this time still without explaining why before finally talking about it in 526. What were his reasons? "Awkward tone" and meta from one scumgame in 2015 that he never really explains in any depth. As far as I can tell,

these are still the reasons he's scumreading Marquis

, along with lurking. It goes without saying, but these reasons are both very easily fakeable and are apparently good enough for CES for that single read to last the entire game.

He briefly votes postie, perhaps influenced by marble's questioning of postie in the previous post. He again only explains this much later, saying that postie was more looking good than actually scumhunting. In that same post he says that he obviously agrees with the gist of the eddie case, but that he still thinks it would be an easy thing for postie to focus on if she were scum. All of these opinions are contradictory to eachother.

His Gamma vote comes for Gamma's case in 702, but again he only barely explains this until much later, with a vague comment about Gamma's case being "accusatory" in 823. He goes into more detail in 1567, saying that Gamma was being awkward and looked concerned with how justified his votes were. This is another weak read, and he pretty much entirely drops this point and doesn't bring it up again – you know, after the consensus largely came to be that gamma is town.

I've talked a lot about CES' read on tchill/screenplay, but let's really go over his progression there.
662 – Brings up two points that make tchill scummy, one point that makes him towny. Describes it as a "wagon driven by relatively crude heuristics."
820 – Pretty much doesn't take any stance on tchill, talks about how the lurking doesn't affect his read.
1025 – The swap makes him feel better about the wagon.
1179 – Argues that screen being willing to swap means it's more likely that the tchill slot is scum here.
1185 – When responding to ran, describes how the scumread on postie seems more convincing to him than the eddie part, which "doesn't really sway [him]".
1217 – Hammer.

CES says that he detailed the nature of his read change but he really didn't in any truly explanatory way. He's said how the odds of hitting scum in tchill went up for him, but the only reasons in his iso for this are the swap and screen's desire to survive.

Day two, back on the marquis wagon. Later, when Tsq asks him why he's not on the eddie wagon when he's stated that he agrees with postie's case, he says that that doesn't help with the goal of lynching two scum. What?

He later jumps on the Eddie wagon with no real indication as to why the switch.

Finally, day three, back on the marquis wagon.

---

Let's examine all of the reasons CES has voted people for, this game:
-Lurking
-Awkward wording
-Looking more good than actually solving the game (this vote never went anywhere, however)
-RVS? (Llamarble)

First of all, these reasons are, as a whole, surface level. It was llamarble who said that if CES doesn't lynch scum then he's probably scum himself – given that this is what CES has been pushing people on, I'm inclined to trust that. Next, all of his scumreads have been opportunistic – on players that looked lynchable (notable is that dunnstral is an exception to this, with a very weak reason from CES – this lends credence to my view of the scumteam). Marquis has always been a viable wagon. Tchill and eddie both actually went through. Gamma looked viable for a bit, and that's when CES voted / scumread him. His postie vote followed llamarble placing a bit of pressure there and again stopped afterwards. It's all agenda-driven.

A quick review of team mafia 2015 indicated that he didn't vote lurkers all the time. He seemed to have fairly well-developed reads that don't compare with his fairly robotic scumhunting this game.

---

2. Undeveloped Townreads

Here's a list of every time i could fine where CES calls someone "town":

662 – He talks about a "nice town tell" from tchill but still evidently scumreads him (if his behavior is anything to go off of).

1179 – Says that i had a "townish line".

1397 – Describes how one of quick's posts shows a pro-town mindset, but ultimately comes to the non-conclusion of "It's not hard to find scummy posts by Lickitung but it's not hard to find townie posts by him either."

1596 – Calls lycan town for scumreading him, calls tsq "sheaey", so wants to sheep llamarble's read on him.

1801 – Says that Ran is his strongest townread.

2223 – Says that davsto generally sounds town, but that he needs to take a closer look. This goes away after davsto votes him.

2610 – Quick is solidly town.

I'm pretty sure that's it. He's barely mentioned a large amount of the playerlist, and for the reads that he has mentioned, his reasons are always self-admittedly weak.

He's keeping his options open.

Look back at team mafia 2015 – a huge difference in how he approaches townreads. He's not playing the same at all, and i'm fairly confident it's because he's scum.

---

3. NKA

Let's examine llama and postie and their relation to cogito ergo sum.

First, llamarble's mentions of cogito ergo sum.
215 – Says to lynch CES in lylo no matter what. Can't imagine why CES called for dueling Marble/Marquis wagons if he was town.
343 – Calls CES null, and makes the point that strong players always appear town early on.
347 – Says again to lynch CES in lylo, mentions that he's been buddied by CES as scum before and to not let it happen this game.
408 – Calls CES the first alternate to his scumreads
516 – Put CES in his scumteam.
537 – Reiterates to lynch CES in lylo.
582 – Says that he could could "easily believe" a scumteam with CES in it.
664 – Same as before.
875 – Lays out a lynch order where CES is first on the chopping block if tchill flips town.
930 – This one is important – says to give CES some time,

but if town isn't winning before LyLo, CES is scum

. He also advocates lynching whoever is left in lylo that should've been nightkilled.
1146 Says that CES should be lower on Ran's readslist.
1160 – Places CES in the category of "don't let live to lylo".

As an aside, Llamarble's thoughts on marquis were that there were decent to very good reasons to townread him, and his lynch order had town leaving him alive until lylo. The llamarble kill day one is a point against marquis scum unless marquis is also scum with one of the people in marble's lynch order.

When it comes to postie, there's very little indication that postie would have gone after marquis and she had me as locktown. Her death clears the way for both of those pushes. This point less directly related to CES scum but still something i'd like to talk about later.

---

Now, a look at cogito ergo sum's use of NKA / his use of dead people's reads.

In 1557, CES says that 1160 would be where we should look given the marble kill, but the readslist in that post was heavily based around tchill being scum. One of the things marble was incredibly adamant on was that we not let CES get to lylo if town isn't winning by then. His readslist also wasn't lynch from the bottom up – he explicitly said that there was scum in the good but hard to read players.

In 2690, he says that if he doesn't care about marble's reads then nobody will as a defense of his TSQ read. Not only is this not true in the first place, but it's kind of a misrepresentation of what marble had made clear – people who are alive at lylo when they shouldn't be need to be lynched. The fact that he doesn't mention this nuance or seem to take it into account doesn't do anything to defend his weak TSQ read, and only furthers the idea of a scumteam there.

Let's look at another TSQ interaction based on marble's reads. In 2742, CES says that he feels good about sheeping marble's townread on TSQ because they know each other in real life and thus marble should have a good idea of how to read him. This again is just selectively choosing parts of what marble said.

2223 – Says that postie was killed because scum preferred to take out a scummier player with unknown reads, when postie had known reads outside of eddie.

2334 – Argues that the postie kill was to make me look better and to give me more sway to steer the lynch away from marquis. What? How does postie being dead, someone who had me as locktown, give me

more

town sway as opposed to less? If the scumteam actually cared about protecting marquis, they probably would've killed the person hard tunnelling him from day one – CES himself. The fact that he doesn't recognize this and this whole point are incredibly disingenuous.

When it comes to what dead townies have said and what the nightkills mean, CES cherrypicks the points that agree with him, ignores the ones that don't and makes disingenuous arguments.

---

4. VCA

I'm confident in saying that cogito ergo sum has voted only town this entire game.

The cogito ergo sum wagon never moves anywhere despite nobody really townreading him. Here are the people who have voted CES:
Day 1 – {Lycan, Ran, NSG}
Day 2 – {Eddie, Lycan}
Day 3 – {Lycan, Davsto, NSG, Ran}

Comparatively, the people who have voted marquis (excluding rvs) are:
Day 1 – {Davsto, Dunn, CES, Llama, Quick, Gamma}
Day 2 – {Ran, Eddie, Gamma, CES, Quick, Dunn}
Day 3 – {CES, Quick, Dunn, Ran, Gamma, TSQ}

The cogito ergo sum wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. The marquis wagon does, the same way the eddie wagon did. If cogito ergo sum were town, his wagon should have taken off at some point during this game, but it hasn't – not even after ran was canvassing pretty hard for it.

---

5. Defense of himself

Cogito ergo sum's defense of himself is notably lacking and inconsistent at times.

1662 – Ran brings up multiple valid points against CES, some of which i've talked about myself. His response is just to call the paragraph lots of spin with little substance and provide some self-meta of him as town.

2003 – His defense of the tchill lynch is to go back to his percentages without going in-depth as to why the percentages changed.

2279 – Discredits my push on him by discrediting both of my teammates' opinions, then tries to reduce my scumread on him to just his being on the lynches.

2534 – People (ran) apparently take this as some incredible reason to townread CES. I've responded to this already, but i'd like to reiterate some points.

CES says that he detailed the nature of his read change on tchill – my point is that his read change is justified with incredibly poor reasoning.
I made the point that he wasn't gamesolving, and he responded that he was solving the game and wasn't interested in "brownie points". He's not solving the game. He's not really coming up with any possible partners for marquis, he's not giving any thoughts as to what happens if he's wrong, he's not really sorting anyone else or looking for townreads (as we've gone over).

2571 – CES argues that scum marquis could just be saying that he townreads CES while a buddy of Marquis' pushes on CES, but he doesn't actually say who that buddy would be. In this same post he also talks about how he didn't like the tchill wagon, inconsistent with what he's been trying to tell me about his reasons for switching.

2690 – Basically completely ignores the question of what happens if marquis ends up being town.

2742 – Again discredits reads from my teammates saying that math is uninvested in the game.

---

6. Conclusion

Cogito ergo sum has exclusively voted town, and has voted the low-hanging fruit in marquis every day so far.

He has almost no townreads – he's keeping his options open.

He's avoided talking about what happens if marquis flips town – again, keeping his options open.

He's selectively and disingenuously used NKA and the reads of dead townies to push things like the marquis wagon.

His wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. This stands in contrast to other town wagons that we've seen in the game.

Cogito Ergo Sum is Scum.[/spoiler]

I skimmed this but what I did read (the beginning) I agreed with. His prodding at me looks half-hearted now that I consider it

[Gamma Emerald]

in case you couldn't tell that was meant to be spoilered

[Gamma Emerald]

This is why me and chamber always say cases are scummy. It's just a cavalcade of nonsense and it's very obvious a lot of it is just ripped from its context or hasn't been given much thought. It just creates the impression that there has to be something there because of its size.

I'll give a detailed reply as soon I can, but the fact that she claims that the reasons for my scum read on Marquis haven't changed when my very last post summarizes exactly why I'm currently scum reading Marquis (and it's not like I hadn't talked about those things before).

I recall some of this context and I don't see where you get that it's taking things out of context

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum
I'm on board here

[Gamma Emerald]

Quick, and Gamma, what makes you join this push rather then when I pushed it and asked for you guys to join me?

Because it makes me question things about CES. You asked me to look over him and I ended up with the opposite read you did. Now that I see the bigger picture I'm with your previous read there.
UNVOTE:
cos fairness

[Gamma Emerald]

Alright. Can you talk to me what you like about the case?

One second
also did I just slip into the twilight zone cos things are weird; why are both Ran and Lycan opposing this wagon now

[Gamma Emerald]

I recall some of this context and I don't see where you get that it's taking things out of context

I'm sure there's some context she hasn't taken things out of. But I've also now written a superlong post that includes many instances of her leaving out context. Give me some sign that you've at least looked at the two examples I pointed out (the two examples are my fully worked out one at the end (link) and the fact that she claimed I was only scum-reading Marquis based on awkwardness and lurking when e.g. I laid out my stance in detail just a few pages ago in #3095. That stuff is like foundational to my play in this game and she just claims it doesn't exist.

These counterpoints: yes I guess those are fair but I'm still not a fan of you reacting "oh and this is why cases suck btw" because it's that knee-jerk value to you being cased and making that statement that makes it horrible. Why didn't this get stated, idk,

when you accused me of being scum for basically making a TChill case

? Was it because you wanted that mislynch to not get shot down?

[Gamma Emerald]

Intent to hammer

[Gamma Emerald]

This massive blowback tells me "you're on the right track, don't ass this up"

[Gamma Emerald]

There is a chance I might not hammer, but the ball isn't really in CES' court right now. not saying whose court it's in cos I want them to make an uninformed attempt at changing my mind.

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm sorry but Ranmaru just upends her townread on me after I go after CES and he's close to lynch? Your counterpoints may be fair but your overall response and the response of others is "oh no all of a sudden this is not allowed" and I'm reading that as affirmation of my reads.

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma's doing the same thing as in our last game (Penguin Mafia Redux). Similar plan. He just seems townier here, I didn't see it until now.

That's not our last game. And how is it similar might I ask? Because I believe you're going to have a fine time proving that given that you cased me the opposite way earlier (I was town for not being like that game).

[Gamma Emerald]

Ok then Gamma. When I get home I can bring up some quotes.

"Some quotes"
I'm sorry but I don't need "quotes", I need evidence of how this course of action upends a very established read on me.

[Gamma Emerald]

On those two examples, I have the same thing to say: that makes sense, but while the case may not be all that good your reaction is horrible as Shea said. Also you say you don't discuss meta theory unless it "immediately relevant". Well it seems like it would have been relevant in the past, so why not then? Why only when it's

you

getting cased?

[Gamma Emerald]

Withdrawing intent to hammer

Honestly I'm not so sure on CES here. Like I think if he were scum he'd be lynched cos his buddies would be trying to bus him for some sweet cred
So either he's not scum or he is and scum are on his wagon already

[Gamma Emerald]

Withdrawing intent to hammer

Honestly I'm not so sure on CES here. Like I think if he were scum he'd be lynched cos his buddies would be trying to bus him for some sweet cred
So either he's not scum or he is and scum are on his wagon already

Not sure on that given it's been a damn long road to get him to L-1.

Was shortened by the case

[Gamma Emerald]

Spoiler:

LQ

: Why does it mean Gamma scum over Town Gamma to you? We also need to see Action Dan, NSG, and Marquis before we end the day. After that, I'm fine.

Because I can see the perspective that Gamma is just doing a sloppy job of trying to do LAMIST. Like I did leave room in my reads list for this kind of behavior from Gamma as Scum. I can see the perspective that GE is just trying his damndest to look as Townie as he knows how. He's asking questions, but they don't seem to really go very deep. They just sorta seem like a bit of a low standard of play (no offense). It looks more like GE is trying to look town than game solve in other words. I am going to look at that ISO now.

IIRC, he's taken a lot of time to answer questions thrown his way. I don't get how you can be here and make like 5 posts and then once someone asks you something you are just gone for the next hour. it doesn't make sense to me.

Okay, so we're on the same page there then. Townreading CES btw
Honestly I think I'm actually in love with white flag now that I'm engaged in playing the setup

I remembered this post for some reason. I don't like it, IDK why.

OK, I ran this by mathblade and he said I can say this:

OK, so I looked at the PYP game that I said I played with Gamma. He was Scum, not Town in that game! Thing is, he has a pretty good Scum game actually. Pretty much all his posts look pretty Townie in that game. It's a head scratcher. I mean I can say that GE probably wouldn't shy away from being Scum at least.

-----------

At this point an Eddie flip tells us a lot about the game. Tells us a lot about Gamma if Eddie flips Scum, tells us about ECS and Lycan if Eddie flips Town. At this point this lynch needs to happen.

Gamma's town. Although would like you to explain Dunn's thought process coming to you as town.

Don't want me to talk about Gamma being Scum. Why not?

I'm telling you Gamma's town. That's it. Now can you answer my question? (Also, you can talk about it as much as you want, I'm still going to tell you Gamma's town)

Why is Gamma Town without meta?

VOTE: Gamma

I'd rather be here anyways.

@Ranmaru,

I want a detailed case on why Gamma is Town based on Meta.

You need to give your case on why you believe Gamma is scum before hand since Burden of Proof is on you. Afterwords I can give you a brief explanation of why I believe Gamma is town.

Nope, not doing that. You tell me why he is Town first and then I will say what I was seeing.

VOTE: Ranmaru

LOL explain this shit. Just because Ran is telling you to present first you're voting him? You wanna revise that line of bullshit?

Why is it bull shit?

You scumread a person, you present your case. Simple as that. If you need to check why I town read Gamma, you can check my posts like you always ask me to. I'm not going to go back and forth on this point. After you present your case, I'll reasonably fulfill your request. Not before.

Well, the read is contingent on your read of Gamma, so...

All I am seeing here from LQ is "I want to connect Ran and Gamma through them defending each other". I've seen enough.
VOTE: LicketyQuickety

If that is what I am saying, would you say that is inaccurate?

Here's what I can do: After you give your case on Gamma, I can explain my Gamma Town Read, and link you to the games I have played with him. That's it. When I reference his meta, I'm talking about games I have played with him. (Hint: I've already referenced two of them)

Did you read the games you asked for, LQ? What did you gain from reading those games?

Nope. It's dependent on you giving your read (and most importantly why) first.

No. Burden of proof is on you. Also you can just check my reads list in my ISO.

My vote isn't moving until I see why you are meta reading Gamma as Town.

So that would be the read.

Ran's defense of Gamma is completely unwarranted. He keeps saying it's a meta read, but he has yet to demonstrate how this game is any different that Gamma's other games. The reason I wanted people to look at Gamma's games is to show that Gamma is remarkably good at copying his Town meta. So then for Ran to just give these lame ass "reasons" for a "Meta Read" which isn't even a distinction between his Town and Scum games shows something funny is going on here.

That said, I asked Ran for his meta read on Gamma, and hopefully people see that Ran's meta read of Gamma is BS.

Trust me, he's improving. He's town though. I'll let him respond before I comment further.

What do you mean "he is improving"? Why do you feel Gamma's play is sub-par? From what I have seen, Gamma is a pretty competent player. I don't get this "oh, but he's getting better" angle. Like this is why I am SRing Gamma - because I feel like you are trying to say Gamma is just this helpless little player who can't do anything himself. So then you say he "new" and "improving" to say why he is Town. It doesn't make sense to me.

This is a weird turnabout, what changed your read on Ran and me? I want reason for both, and they should be specific for each of us.

Yeah, I agree it's a weird turnabout.

Basically, I already kinda touched on it and kinda predicted I would be wrong about it before I committed to the read in the first place when I said "when I am this sure of something, I am usually wrong."

But to answer your question, It was mostly that I saw I was focussing too much on a single aspect of something. That something was how you did your votes from game to game. I had assumed that Ran was just making up their meta read on you so that they could easily say you were Town without having to give details into why saying it was a meta read. My perspective changed when I saw that Ran could in fact back up what he was saying with regards to his meta read on you. I also took into account that on paper, Ran is really playing very very Pro-Town, so after thinking about it, I decided, once again, using Occam's Razor, that Ran was probably just Town because he was playing like a Townie would. This read was reinforced when I looked at one of the Scum games he linked. In that game, half of his posts were talking about how he would post later. He has done that very very little this game and the times he has done it, it hasn't been a string of "I'll post later", "sorry, I can't post now, I know I said I would but I will later" ect. and he has had a legit excuse for doing so, Namely, work. And he was still posting while at work as well. This is the exact opposite of what Marquis has been doing pretty much all game. To go along with this, Marquise has also NOT played Pro-Town like Ran has. BTW, you have played Pro-Town as well, so that would factor in as well. So once I realized that Ran was Town way more often than he was Scum here, and since he is so strong in his read on you, I think you can see that it's not that much of a jump to say that because Ran is Town, then it's very likely you are Town because of how strong his read on you is.

And I have been trying to see the reason in people's reads more this game. Usually I don't pay attention to, or don give credence to my TR's reads, but this game I am. For example, Postie said North is like lock Town. And since Postie flipped green, I can see that there is probably a good read there. Then I match up what I would read North as, which is the same read, so that read gets strengthened. This is the basic concept behind how I came up with the TR's I did, with a few exceptions. Those exceptions are found in Dunn, CES, Dan to a lesser extent, and most of all, Shea.

I want to know why KMD thought the wagon was bad early game.

Yeah, I hate to admit it because of what I said earlier about the wagon, but actually after reading that part of the game over, I think if Marquis flips Scum, that wagon is going to be very telling. I think it makes a few people look very good.

I have to say why I hate to admit it more though. I realize that my line of thinking is so contrary to what the norm is that it's borderline detrimental to Town. I have always been like this in Mafia and it's more annoying than you are probably thinking. I realize that by being so unconventional in what I am looking at compared to others that it's almost impossible for me to actually get a good grasp of what is going on in the game. Players like Llama, tho they don't back up what they are saying very well, have a much better understanding of what is going on in the game at the time. It pains me to admit that I am probably just slow in understanding things. It's really rather embarrassing.

Gamma, are you still feeling I am Scum?

Honestly not really. More recently while I wasn't a fan of your push on me and Ran it wasn't like your past play where I felt you were misrepping people. You were pushing things that were clearly there and you reconsidered when you saw evidence to the contrary.

Here, I'll help you out:


If your claim is that he "wolfy jumped in the thread" and made a vote based off of wanting to "push a wagon" you'd think maybe he'd have chosen actually a wagon, instead of just randomly throwing a vote at the wind in a place where no one else was.

More to the point, I find it deeply unsettling that you think this is the most important thing to go off of at this point. We have 10 whole pages bruh.

VOTE: gamma emerald

I thought others voted before him, huh
UNVOTE:

Also I'm not wild about the fact that your first instinct was to attack me instead of trying to figure out what I meant. As town when someone says something to me that on face doesn't make sense my first reaction is generally to try to clarify, not to fos them.

I thought you were trying to br obtuse, now I see you were right I'm no longer FOSing you

Ok but why are you voting dunn? Your vote for him is nonsense and there's a lot of scum motivation to park on the lurker who is literally doing nothing, and then make a big show about it as if you had some hyper special read on him and you didn't understand why others didn't. What do you think about the literal anything else thats happened in this game? Why do you think that dunn is the best vote when there is so much going on? Why were you unaware that it wasn't a wagon vote when you've placed your entire sorting efforts in this game into figuring out what happened in that one random early vote?

Okaaaay you're blowing this way out of proportion and I don't like it. I literally unvoted the second I realized my mistake. And the reason I thought there was a wagon there was I remembered votes on someone Llalmarble suspected, and knew some people were suspecting Marquis, so I thought the votes were on her. I get that there is some scumminess to what I did, but I didn't just votepark, I actually thought I had a point. And I've asked other questions and made other reads, so what I'm seeing here is you boiling down my content to one misguided push. Given that and the fact Something_Smart is telling me not to trust you, I feel comfortable with this.
VOTE: TheStatusQuo

This is one of the weirdest progressions I have ever seen..

IDK why Shea doesn't press Gamma on that mistake Gamma made more than this and instead later ends up TRing Gamma based on his 395 which I personally found severely lacking, and I don't get this rapid turn around from Gamma on Shea...

Someone said Gamma's 180 on Shea is Townie, I completely disagree. It makes me think there is a very real change of there being at least one Scum in Shea/Gamma. This is due to Shea's turnabout read on Gamma based on 395. It just doesn't seem like Gamma deserves to be let off the hook that easily.

People (pretty much everyone) are saying Gamma is Town here. Since I think there is one Scum in Shea/Gamma I'm going back to this:

VOTE: TSQ

These are some quotes of Quick pushing Gamma D2, D3, and pushing Shea wrt to his Gamma push in Day 1. I bring this up solely because, Gamma likes to use his own slot as a stepping stone for his scum mates to use and take a better position in the game. In the back of my mind, I thought "Ok, if LQ and Gamma are scum, we might be in a pickle." In Penguin Mafia Redux, Gamma slowed down his posting on purpose so I could agree with Transcend's points on Gamma, which made me think 'Ah, he is right, may be town then' when I was having problems with the Transcend slot. Turns out, they were cross bussing each other day 3 so that either one could get town credit based on that push. When I say Gamma is similar to there, I mean the tactical aspect of his play, or at least how it is associated to LQ. That idea was suddenly sparked when I see him and LQ, both people town reading CES, voting CES upon NSG's case. Shea comes in and reverses his read he has had on CES all game as well. They are openly wolfing here. Why, I don't know. Their votes on CES need a hard look in future days.

I need to ask you this same question that has been asked of me: why would we be that obvious? with two scum lynches ending the game what purpose does all of us being obvscum serve? This question made me reconsider CES!scum. As for what made me reconsider CES being town, I felt his activity overall had been for show when I realized his push on me didn't have much force behind it.
Also this is actually somewhat sensible so I'm going to drop the vitriol and just try to level with you here.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: LQ
At this point I'm honestly wanting this flip more, he's scummy, his scumminess matches past reconds of scumplay, and

honestly at first blush srceenplay doesn't seem half bad

You know what I think Dunn might just be that stupid but like
I still suspect him even without that part of things

These two posts were the only things that made me go 'uh oh'.

Why the first one? and for the second one that was a cross-game read, can explain if you really want to poke into it but it might take a bit

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum
I'm on board here

Gamma, in your town games, have you ever reversed a read on a solid town read you had all game like this?

Maybe? I have a lot of games, I think one is occurring to me though so I might look into that. I'm thinking of Mini 1923 currently as which one it happened in

[Gamma Emerald]

Withdrawing intent to hammer

Honestly I'm not so sure on CES here. Like I think if he were scum he'd be lynched cos his buddies would be trying to bus him for some sweet cred
So either he's not scum or he is and scum are on his wagon already

Who do you think are scum in the case of CESscum and CEStown and why?

CES!scum: probably Dave/Quick/Shea (wouldn't blame anyone for suspecting me using my own logic btw)
CES!town: probably one of the above plus Lycan, and thinking Marquis and Dunn could also be scum (Dunn's not a certainty though)
Will say I don't really suspect you that much anymore, now that you've clarified your read on me it's logical, but I want to know how quickly you made the connection to Mini 1911

[Gamma Emerald]

Quick: Same question. Who is scum on CEStown flip, and CESscum flip. In fact, everyone answer this. Ces scum = Ces, Shea, Quick.

Why is it those 3 and not, say, CES/me/Shea?

[Gamma Emerald]

Vote: Shea

I prefer this and I think this has the most support. Join me.

Reasoning if you haven't given it recently?

[Gamma Emerald]

Scum motivation: Be proactive Day 1 to have the appearance of being town. Interacts with scum mates, drops push the next day in favor of Eddie push. Once the players that can read him correctly are gone (Llama, RC) He becomes lazy. Has resorted to skimming. Isn't actually reading posts I link to him (since he had to ask NSG if I said anything about scum teams) Opportunistic vote on CES. (States CES is null but doesn't think he should go before Dunnstral, NSG, Marquis) Reason: Possibly because town won't punish Quick/Gamma/Shea for whatever they do so they make this aggressive play.

Town motivation: Looks for scum Day 1. Becomes lazy due to in real life reasons. I can't see any town motivation beyond that.

ok thanks
It looks interesting but I'm gonna sit on it while I catch up

[Gamma Emerald]

okay so if this shit isn't locked when i wake up i want lq's next post to have answers to my 3205 that he promised

if gamma is on and doesn't vote ces, he needs to say why and who is the lynch for the day

if shit is fucked, and this is a townflip there

must be

a pre-determined player that controls lylo come day 5.

i suggest

whoever is left tomorrow out of

{myself nsg gamma ranmaru}

come to a consensus day 4 who will choose the day 5 lynch. everyone that is town disputes this shit tomorrow because people that don't fall in line day 5 missed the train and claim scum.

don't even bother fighting me on this now. fuck you, do something productive with your life instead.

I haven't hammered cos I'm trying to think things over again before just jumping in since things weren't quite adding up
Honestly now that Ran's logic is clear I'm less resistant to voting CES again because I'm not worried about "why are scum being obv"

[Gamma Emerald]

From my point of view I also think a reasonable high-level summary of (part of) nsg's case is that my play has been focused on getting what I see as the right lynches and not on unimportant stuff like town reads on people that are in no danger of getting lynched. Certain people might find that scummy but that's essentially just my playstyle. I also had fully intended to give a full reads list on Sunday when we got home from our Cardiff trip but that trip ended up being another 3 hours longer than I was expecting so I would've ended up talking about several things she's complained I haven't talked about if not for happenstance.

So what you're saying is you're getting scumread for having different priorities?

[Gamma Emerald]

I think if CES flips scum it pretty much clears:
NSG, Lycanfire, davsto.

Lycan is less important because I was already heavily town reading them, but a ces scum flip would cause me to drastically rethink my NSG read because this doesn't feel like bussing on her part.

I think the people who would look bad with a ces scum flip are:
Ranmaru and Dunn.

CES town looks bad for: Me, NSG, Gamma.

Why does CES!town look bad for NSG? Also Ran being scum with CES is off the table for me pretty much.

[Gamma Emerald]

My vote on CES, for those who keep saying its "SUS" is because we're at deadline and I thought his reaction to the NSG was horrific. It didn't respond to any of her points. It's main contention was that NSG was simply misunderstanding CES, but I don't think that's fair. It went point by point to make it seem like it was big and full of line by line retorts but it wasn't. It was mainly just repeating the same thing over and over and again and accusing NSG of being disingenuous when I really didn't think she was.

Also, anyone who is saying I had a firm town read on him before is DELIBERATELY mistating what I have said before.

I've had him as null town, because of meta, but that meta does not include responses like this. That's not ces town play, and we're at deadline.

If there were a viable wagon on Dunn I would join it, but its not there.

I feel your vote was valid initially, but he actually responded very intensively and in full, so it was just a knee-jerk reaction

[Gamma Emerald]

I think if CES flips scum it pretty much clears:
NSG, Lycanfire, davsto.

Lycan is less important because I was already heavily town reading them, but a ces scum flip would cause me to drastically rethink my NSG read because this doesn't feel like bussing on her part.

I think the people who would look bad with a ces scum flip are:
Ranmaru and Dunn.

CES town looks bad for: Me, NSG, Gamma.

Why does CES!town look bad for NSG? Also Ran being scum with CES is off the table for me pretty much.

Because NSG was the third vote on the wagon, mostly. If ces was the chosen misslynch for scum today thats exactly where I would expect her to be.

Actually now that I think about it CES town also looks really bad for Marquis, because he's the wagon that was on the block before that and NSGs big case essentially took him off the table. If CES is town NSG/Marquis could easily be a scum team.

Why don't you think ran can be scum with ces?

Look at what you wrote in the next post. If Ran was scum why not just coast off the bus?

[Gamma Emerald]

CES reacted validly and in full? Can you talk about that? I think thats exactly what I'm saying. He reacted with a LOT of stuff, but I felt like all of that stuff was mostly nonsense.

Can you tell me what about it you liked?

It's that it doesn't feel like a desperate recovery attempt and more like an actual explanation of what the situation is and what is wrong with the case.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Dunn
I think we can all agree to this?

[Gamma Emerald]

@TSQ okay then
@Ran what's wrong with seeking a compromise?

[Gamma Emerald]

Several people have expressed willingness to vote Dunn though.

[Gamma Emerald]

Hmm
guess not
UNVOTE:

[Gamma Emerald]

Hmm
guess not
UNVOTE:

What's your read on CES and Shea?

Up in the air
That's why I've been questioning so much, I'm trying to figure things out to make an educated decision on CES' alignment
Also I'm still working on finding a game where I dropped a townread
Maybe I need to go deeper, to a much older game

[Gamma Emerald]

Hmm
guess not
UNVOTE:

What's your read on CES and Shea?

Up in the air
That's why I've been questioning so much, I'm trying to figure things out to make an educated decision on CES' alignment
Also I'm still working on finding a game where I dropped a townread
Maybe I need to go deeper, to a much older game

I think I found a game where I dropped a townread suddenly: Mini 1830
@LQ I'm coming back to the idea but I think I might do some backreading first

[Gamma Emerald]

Subject: Mini 1830 - Game Over

I looked back at your case House, and it doesn't feel as strong now. To remedy that, I want you to tell me what CCC has been doing that's scummy since you presented that case.

I don't care what you want, scum. Stop interfering in my interaction with CCC.

If you want me to vote with you, you're gonna have to do this.
UNVOTE:

I would rather you swing, tbh.

Why?

Just fulfilling my win con, nothing personal.

Subject: Mini 1830 - Game Over

What did you just...what.
Tell me why I should still townread you, House.

Here, the read change and the catalyst.
There I knee-jerk reacted to the post that I thought was scummy, here I felt like with the part of the case I liked and the reaction it was enough to overturn my previous opinion given it was fairly old.

[Gamma Emerald]

Also tell me your read on Shea.

Could be scum with CES but I think associations will be clearer after I do a backread

[Gamma Emerald]

this page is lol

[Gamma Emerald]

I could have swore I remembered him voting CES but it looks like I was just remembering his vote on me.

Derp Clear IMO.

why

[Gamma Emerald]

makes sense, but idk I've known some airheaded scum

[Gamma Emerald]

Votecount 2.14

EddieFenix(7)

~ Postie, Thestatusquo, Davsto, Cogito Ergo Sum, Lycanfire, LicketyQuickety, Ranmaru

-- HAMMER

Dunnstral(3)

~ ActionDan, Gamma Emerald, northsidegal

Marquis(2)

~ EddieFenix, Dunnstral

LicketyQuickety(1)

~ Marquis


Not Voting (0):

Time for some wagon analysis. BTW I do think there's scum on the Eddie wagon. We know Postie is town cos night kill. CES and TSQ are both on the Eddie wagon. Not really suspecting Ranmaru currently so thinking that's not it. Davsto I've been feeling as town throughout so not thinking it's him either. Lycan is justified cos tunnels.
TSQ: says postie's case makes a lot of sense. I think he's just swayed by cases easily, probably town (this has nothing to do with anyone else's alignment)
CES: He was actually scumreading Eddie day 2, but what's interesting is he pushed an Eddie/Postie team, which honestly was pretty stupid and probably a scum-motivated push.
Quick: Voted later saying Eddie didn't seem to want to play. Fair vote but not necessarily towny.
So CES is the scummiest off that wagon imo

[Gamma Emerald]

17-8=9
I should be able to be on at DL if I get up early

[Gamma Emerald]

Not much but with what's happening I can see reason to not hammer, info is being generated

[Gamma Emerald]

someone give me a reason to not hammer now
I got aminute

[Gamma Emerald]

hey @gamma please don't go to sleep or something without hammering.

I made more time. I've got 'til midnight est

[Gamma Emerald]

hey @gamma please don't go to sleep or something without hammering.

I made more time. I've got 'til midnight est

for what

to talk and possibly hammer

[Gamma Emerald]

I made more time means I did something to work towards having the time to do this, I didn't just end up with it suddenly

[Gamma Emerald]

Funniest post itt IMO.

Not really no. I forget what macaroons are though.

They're a dessert
more seriously Ran I'm thinking of diving back into backreading what should I look at from earlier in this game? Try to keep it simple

[Gamma Emerald]

Read early game. Like page 1 - 3.

NSG on page one seems pretty towny
AD's first post is pretty neutral
Marquis' 24 feels like a cop-out from giving an actual read + passing responsibility
Dunn's 29 is blank but I'm not taking issue with it
I finally deciphered what Marquis' "lol someone's projecting" means, it's about NSG projecting her play onto Postie, idk I'm not sure about that
There's a non-zero percent chance Llamar's "Dunn - possible first page bussing yay" had informed my thoughts on Dunn early on
@Marquis re: 36, what about the reactiveness was scummy or w/e?
Marquis' representative thing might be her talking with a teammate
46 by NSG is a good response, will look out for Marquis' reply (to the reply: why must the two things be separate, they look like a continuity to me, what's wrong with that?)
NSG's 54 townpings me
@AD why do you say Marquis' postie assessment is like a cross-examination?
If Postie hadn't gotten nightkilled I'd be wondering if 62 was scum theatre
CES 68's middle section feels like silly filler, and the last part is discrediting imo
71 actually broke a rule but I won't press it, will state that the post wasn't really necessary, but if I were choosing a setup given the presence of the teams I would have gone with pure vanilla 12:3 mountainous cos I played the MU shadowhydra game and that was well balanced imo
72 + 73 are pretty good imo

That should be it, thinking the first pages indicate CES + Marquis + ? as scum

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

[Gamma Emerald]

Why does Ran try to save CES when she can switch on for towncred?

[Gamma Emerald]

Also, I am pretty sure this rules out a Dunn/Marquis team

Agreed
Also re: the next post and the point that my hop on hop off with Dunn was town-indicative, I'm not sure why? It's just me being a dum-dum imo.

[Gamma Emerald]

Also, I am pretty sure this rules out a Dunn/Marquis team

Agreed
Also re: the next post and the point that my hop on hop off with Dunn was town-indicative, I'm not sure why? It's just me being a dum-dum imo.

Yeah, but the thing is, if the votes are what they were, you have no

incentive

to get off in the first place, because you have far more incentive to stay on to keep the votes from flipping on to a Scummate, which can happen sometimes. I am not explaining this very well, but basically, it's completely unnecessary for you to move your vote at all in that spot because you have literally NOTHING to gain by doing so.

...except I was just told my reasoning for voting was wrong?