Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Thestatusquo]

I also want to poke at Dunn by the way.

He has three posts today and none of them are good.

[Thestatusquo]

Dunnstral
What's your read on me

Town

I also want to poke at Dunn by the way.

He has three posts today and none of them are good.

Ok then: I'm ok with lynching Eddie and will vote him if we're ready

I don't scumread LQ, but I haven't been looking into this posts in-depth

Marquis pushing that there was a dichotomy but never actually going into why a dichotomy is

bad

(and I did ask) is at the very least strange

Can you give me some more in depth thoughts about players more on the periphery?

What do you think about the action dan? CES? What do you think of postie independent of the eddie case? What about Wgeurts?

What part of the postie case do you agree with? You mentioned you were going to do some digging into it but I don't see the result of that, I just see you saying "I'm going to look into that" changing into "I'm gunna vote eddie later".

[Thestatusquo]

Meant to say wgeurts/davsto

[Thestatusquo]

Those are very surface level opinions.

[Thestatusquo]

We're mid day 2.

[Thestatusquo]

We're mid day 2.

No, we are not. We are like 3 days into D2, I would hardly call that the midway point.

This is really what you feel like commenting on?

[Thestatusquo]

Do you have literally no concept of how colloquialism works?

[Thestatusquo]

Are you honestly accusing me of having the dastardly scum plan of hoping that people don't realize that 3 does not equal exactly 7?!?!

Is that legitimately what you think is happening right now?

[Thestatusquo]

Ran, I posted that I got super busy at work. I made sure to set an hour out of my day today specifically to answer your questions. I don't understand where this is coming from.

Is your argument that I'm not interested in your reads? Because I specifically asked you with help in the middle of my read pile, and I took that into account. Responding to your question literally caused me to reevaluate the thought I had on LQ that he wasn't likely to be scum on a town lynch.

I don't agree with you on lycan, though I can reread him, and I do think eddie is scum because as you said yourself the case is good.

But I have been trying to work with you, my work load just went up between day one and now.

[Thestatusquo]

I'll get to a bunch of that tomorrow as I'm half asleep, but I'll point out I did consider LQ today before I voted eddie. I made a post about it.

[Thestatusquo]

VOTE: EddieFenix

I think that LQ being scum mostly makes sense from the perspective of tchill being scum.

If tchill isn't scum a lot of LQs actions on that wagon look a lot better

.

I didn't really get the feeling that you only considered LQ bad solely due to his interactions with T-chill (which certainly was part of it, but you seemed to have more on him). So this felt out of place. Fair that you'll get to it after sleeping, I must sleep as well. I am also tired from work.

read the post I made before that. I thought a lot about it, and also I think I got caught up too much thinking there was little scum motivation to LQ to act as he did with town tchill which I thought outweighed other scumminess.

If you look at my answer to your question about LQ and also my post immediately after that, I think musing over the interactions made me change my mind.

[Thestatusquo]

Shea hasn't been trying to work with me as much as have been with him. Note that he asks Llamarble to reconsider his read on NSG but he doesn't try to ask me anything. As I re-read I noticed that LQ was giving good points on Lycan yet Shea started attacking him a few minutes later, ignoring the content LQ posted. Shea also doesn't have a good reason to not vote Lycan yet he's hesitant to put him in a pool. My biggest problem with Shea is that he is happy to push Eddie and isn't trying to reconsider his reads, and it seems odd for him to be pushing Eddie over LQ when he had big problems with him the day before. If Eddie is town then Shea is just letting Postie push Eddie and he's along for the ride, win-win for him. He also wasn't considerate of his push on you, Gamma. You were explaining that you were making a mistake but he continued to push on you without actually considering it.

Shea

: On day 1 I asked you for your thoughts on Davsto and I had to repeat myself before you actually responded to me. I was thinking since you and I disagreed on reads, being the most top town reads, you would be interested in asking me to reconsider any reads, like you did with Llama. Today you never

initiated

a conversation with me, your strongest town read. So my question is this: Why haven't you made the initiative to ask? Of course if

I

ask you to talk reads, you'll talk, I am not disputing that. Why don't you agree on Lycan, do tell. Why did you ignore LQ's #434, and attack him a few minutes later? Why did you never comment on LQ's #434. I also did not like your treatment of Gamma on a re-read. I want an updated full reads list from you with reasons. I felt that you should have considered LQ before simply voting Eddie this phase. I expected your assistance on LQ so it was odd that you preferred to support the Eddie wagon instead at the time.

1) Re: davsto. I'm human and I miss things? When there's a lot of things I feel I need to answer in a thread, sometimes I don't see posts or they don't register to me? Idk. Other examples of something I missed in this game: GammaEmeralds unvote. I don't understand why you think this is AI.

2) I am interested in you reconsidering reads. That's exactly why I asked you what you thought of the eddie case, because I want you on this wagon.

3) I don't understand this point really. You think that I wanted to work with llama when he was my top town read but now I don't want to work with you now that you're in? I don't understand why this makes me scum, since I've both worked and not worked with a top town read this game, so how could you possibly think its AI? Do you think its a scum tell that I don't want to work with you specifically (hint: I do)? Or do you think its more likely that since I live near mike and know him in real life my interaction with him might be more informal and more prone to familiarity? I think its the latter thing thats coming across.

4) Mainly because I thought it was garbage and I don't make a huge habit out of defending other players to scum reads.

My read list has already been posted and I have already given reasons for everything except the null slots which are kind of hard to give reasons for.

[Thestatusquo]

5) I do have a good reason to not vote Lycan. I think he's town. I haven't been ambiguous about this, he's been among my top town reads pretty much from when he made that post that made me rethink my LQ actions onward. I thought it was a very town post, and I think that his posts this game do nothing but spur good discussion.

6) I have not really ignored content LQ posted. LQ is the number one person I've interacted with is this thread. I haven't responded directly to all of his posts, but I've responded to many of them.

7) Literally I reconsidered my reads at the start of this day to put eddie in my scum pile because of the case. Literally I reconsidered my read on LQ in response to the flip. Literally I reconsidered it again when you asked me about it. Literally I moved Davsto into my town reads from null today because of his posting today. I just don't understand how you could possibly say I'm not reevaluating my reads? It's just not true?

8) I was pushing gamma to push gamma. Players react differently when they are under intense pressure. Just because I wasn't saying every counter argument does not mean I was not considering what gamma was saying, and indeed I stopped voting gamma, and I feel my push got a lot of information, allowed me to move gamma out of a scum suspect and also directly coincided to his greater participation in the game. So I'd say that push worked out pretty well.

[Thestatusquo]

Ran, RC says that all he sees you doing right now is trying to make another Eddie counterwagon happen, and that if Eddie is scum he wants you lynched tomorrow. He says you should help lynch Eddie if you want your TSQ read taken seriously.

Sorry I'll start playing the game myself more soon too.

So if she wants TSQ scum lynched
She has to lynch Eddie, who is town based of TSQ being scum

Great plan 10/10

Yeah this post is just positively DRIPPING with RC.

[Thestatusquo]

VOTE: Postie
Yeah, thinking on it that

very

much looks like pushing an agenda, Ran has stated he doesn't believe those two are scum together so it's basically "help me push a mislynch then I'll join you".

I don't really think so. This is the kind of thing that RC does when he is town and trying to control the town.

Granted, it's also what he does when he's scum trying to control the town.

Basically RC just likes to control the town.

[Thestatusquo]

I need to think about the flips because a

part of what made LQ scum was the tchill associations

. Not all of it, but some part. I think my votes going to end up there but I want to reread postie's eddie case and think about what the tchill flip means for LQ before I do.

Alright when you get back I want you to show me where you show this thought process during Day 1. Also, if you were thinking of it like that, why were you fine with killing

either

LQ

or

T-chill then?

viewtopic.php?p=9907935#p9907935
viewtopic.php?p=9907952#p9907952
viewtopic.php?p=9927646#p9927646

I thought it was pretty clear that I thought they were buddies together. Maybe I wasn't super explicit about why, but I definitely was trying to put out there that a part of the reason I found them both simultaneously suspicious was that they were both scummy and made a lot of sense as scum TOGETHER.

[Thestatusquo]

Also, I just want to throw this out there:

I absolutely hate this "tournament solving" perspective. I think its mostly nonsense. It boils down to either wifom (who on the team would take a scum PM, which mainly only works in the context of extremes, like a team that has one very good scum players and four very bad ones.) OR it's the gamblers fallacy. (all games were rolled independently of each other. Player A on team 1 rolling a scum PM does not do anything to increase or decrease the chance that player B on team 1 also rolled a scum PM. The same way me getting pocket kings in a hand of poker does nothing to influence the likelihood of me getting pocket kings on the next hand. The two events are independent of each other in terms of probability.)

Even if there were some merit to it, which as I said I don't think there is, there's no indication to me that its better than just regular ol' scum hunting and meta analysis for finding scum players. I think that's been pretty reflected in my teams thoughts over the course of the tournament.

Basically I hate it and I wish a50 would stop doing it. Obviously I can't make him stop, but I'm giving it zero credence in my analysis of this game.

[Thestatusquo]

I just want to make it clear that my last post "I wish a50 would stop doing it." was in reference to the post ran made in this game about what a50 thinks about this game.

[Thestatusquo]

Lycanfire

: I was telling people to look at your votes so they'd see you voting CES and not doing as much from my perspective. I've looked at your meta and it checks out. I think that interaction means they are not aligned. It's possible he didn't care about it since he town reads you, though. CES explains the #466 in his #1451. I liked your response, so I'm retracting my scum read on you.

Shea

: I thought it was AI because I've done it before as scum, that's the simplest way to explain it. Fair enough on reconsidering reads. That is a good point, actually (the informal thing). I didn't consider that. 4) makes sense too. Fair on number seven, if Eddie is scum then I'll have no problem at all. Fair on pushing gamma for reactions. Fair enough on the T-chill/LQ association.

---

I've decided I'm wrong on this entirely, including CES if he's right on Postie/Eddie. I'm now willing to help with the Eddie wagon. I'm concerned about LQ's actions as I pushed for Shea/Lycanfire.

If Eddie is town I think my focus goes back onto LQ. I have pause on postie because on the one hand I have liked her play and think shes more likely to be town, but on the other hand RC is VERY capable of a long term push on a townie expecting to run them up and not get any heat from it.

[Thestatusquo]

AD, I'm interested in wagoning Dunn but not particularly interested in wagoning gamma.

I'd be interested in a deeper explanation of why you think Eddie is town, along with a breakdown of your feelings about the postie case and davsto follow up to the postie case.

[Thestatusquo]

Could you respond to my questions?

[Thestatusquo]

once again reminding people that my activity naturally goes down on weekends, so I won't be posting a whole ton til monday.

I saw your question ran but I want to think about the answer because I think hes doing a lot of different things.

[Thestatusquo]

@Ranmaru, Re: my reads changing with little progression. I have talked about this before on this site, see here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=72320

a lot of the problem is that its not like you really reevaluate, its like you shift from full town reading them to voting them with no warning and no indication that you were ever even remotely thinking of them as someone you might before.

Latest example being davsto.

[Thestatusquo]

@Ranmaru, Re: my reads changing with little progression. I have talked about this before on this site, see here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=72320

a lot of the problem is that its not like you really reevaluate, its like you shift from full town reading them to voting them with no warning and no indication that you were ever even remotely thinking of them as someone you might before.

Latest example being davsto.

Yeah, I do the opposite as well and change from Scum to Town reads this is just a part of my play, deal.

do you try to emulate this as scum?

[Thestatusquo]

prodge.

I'll be very active tomorrow.

if you guys want to lynch eddie before then thats fine with me I don't have a lot more to say.

[Thestatusquo]

It seems disingenuous to accuse me of not having a direction simply because the direction I have is different from yours, lycan.

[Thestatusquo]

Yup. This is why Pre-Flip sucks eggs.

Well, you can help us move to the post-flip stage.

Still want to see more from Shea, North, AD, Dunn, Postie, Eddie and you as well.

This is ridiculous. I'm the second highest post count player in the game, and I don't post fluff.

I have stated multiple times in this thread that I am low activity on weekends.

If you don't know where I stand you're not paying much attention.

[Thestatusquo]

Eddie Deep Dive:

post 136
Eddies first post in the game, and I don't love this post. We have a bunch of hand wave-y bullshit here including "I wouldn't pick scum in this game" which is a meaningless argument along with "mastina is amazing and therefore ... " which also doesn't mean anything. Additionally, this post has one of my favorite, which is an overall struggle to find players to scum read, while throwing out town tells like candy. In this post on page 6 he declares llamarble town and action town with little to no justification, and his attack on lycan is nonsense. He came in and voted? How is that a scum tell. He ignores me and NSG completely.

post 192

This is the post that caused NSG to town read eddie, and to be fair I see their point. BUT as I mentioned at the time this is something I often do myself as scum, find a little something to post fluff about that doesn't actually effect the focus of the day and doesn't ruffle any feathers and doesn't put pressure anywhere.

post 208

Mastina is referenced several times at the beginning of his iso, but in a very superficial and name-droppy way. We get one further read list from mastina, (here in post 1343) despite the fact that she's been around and people (like postie) ask Eddie to talk about their thoughts on the game. This reads like there was an initial plan to make it seem like teammates were involved in the game and then it sort of faded away. I would be much more inclined to expect team mates to be helping with town games rather than scum games, with some exceptions. As it turns out, eddie mentions mastina a whole bunch of times and only mentions a single other teammate once. Is there a reason that he thought that none of his teammates besides the one who prides herself on her (admittedly terrible) scum play would be reading this game?

He also has a weird buddy buddy vibe going on with me
post 370 is an example of this. This is not typically how I would expect town players to interact with other town players.

Perhaps the biggest problem with Eddie from the perspective of this game is that he doesn't seem to have done anything. And I don't mean that he hasn't made posts, but rather that he posts huge gigantic walls that don't really seem to accomplish anything.

post 943 is a good example.

It literally takes me 4 mouse wheel scrolls to go through it, so you would expect it to be filled with tons of opinions on the game or maybe a case against a scum read or what not.

No. It contains the following:
1) My schedule is hectic.
2) Answer to the question "should I answer cases against me?" by LQ.
3) I think you are null LQ.
4) Don't be AtE LQ.
5) anger at llamarbles attempt to game solve.
6) Reiteration of mastinas read which was stated in post 1, which was like 30 posts earlier.
7) Calling llamarble correct for saying he was town.
8) "I'm always scummy"
9) Reiteration that he doesn't like how llamarbles reads shift.
10) "I know I'm going to flip town"
11) "Fuck you I'm not voting"
12) 8 gifs/images.

The problem isn't the one post, its that he has posted almost exclusively this and one liner questions which he doesn't follow up on.

He hasn't really "pushed" anyone the whole game. Sure, he's voted, but I don't get the impression he has any desire to push the days lynches to where he thinks they should go.

Tl;dr version:

1) I think hes playing this game by posting massively sized posts to distract from the fact that hes doing NOTHING.

2) I think the fact that mastina specifically is the one teammated he consistently references is telling.

3) I think his interactions with me feel off, and he's interacting with people in a way that does not look designed to find scum.

4) I think postie's meta case is good.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm happy with this lynch.

[Thestatusquo]

By my reckoning he's got about 55% chance of being scum.

My I ask precisely where you got this from?

I have a specific process to come up with numbers like these - I make them up. Then, after making up a number for everyone, I add up all the numbers and see if they add up to #ofscum - they probably don't, so I start changing the numbers until they do, making sure to think long and hard about how embarrassed I would be if one of my town reads turned up scum whilst doing so in order to keep my confidence in check. The idea is that the triple constraints of math, embarrassment and not wanting to underestimate my confident scum reads will lead to some semblance of truth. It's a bit involved but I prefer it to making reads list in terms of taking stock because I could actually experience how the existence of null reads like Dunn and ActionDan make me somewhat less confident in Marquis and Eddie.

Spoiler: Answer to the inevitable question

Marquis: 60%
Eddie: 55%
GE: 30%
Postie: 25%
Dunn: 25%
ActionDan: 25%
northsidegal: 20%
LQ: 20%
Davsto: 15%
Lycan: 10%
TSQ: 10%
Ranmaru: 5%

How has this never come up in any of the games I've played with you before?

Has this came up before ever?

Can you point me to other times you've talked about this method.

[Thestatusquo]

Ranmaru

I remember you asking me a question but I can't seem to find it here as I catch up. Can you shoot it my way again (if I'm remembering correctly.)

Can you tell me why you have [ad nsg] ahead of [dunn]? I think Dunn is the most scummy player in the game after eddie.

[Thestatusquo]

a) he did explain his method. b) he admitted that the method involves coming up with rough guestimates of numbers and then tweaking them with different sources of information.

Sometimes its like you're not even reading the posts you're responding to?

[Thestatusquo]

Like you're literally quoting the post where he's explaining his method and telling you that part of it involves making up some numbers and you're responding "EXPLAIN YOUR METHOD! OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE YOU'RE MAKING UP NUMBERS!"

[Thestatusquo]

a) he said it was a bit arbitrary. The fact that you don't like the method does not mean he didn't explain it.

b) I'll just quote you: "he literally said he was making up numbers and then ... manipulating them"

If you think his method is bad feel free to attack it, but suggesting that he hasn't explained it when literally in your point a you say what he does because he explained it is a bad look.

And I edited out the arbitrarily in your sentence, because while its clear that some amount of the process is guess work, it doesn't look to me like anything he said about it suggests its at random.

[Thestatusquo]

key word is "bit." he says the initial numbers are basically guesses.

how is that any different from posting that someone is a "town lean"

how is it different in any way besides the fact that hes trying to quantify his reads differently than you are?

[Thestatusquo]

Shea

: AD I had there for giving out a few town leans without really doing as much over time went on. I have Dunn as null, though. Dunn's been voting though, NSG has been holding her vote and has been posting around in other games and leaving this game in the back burner. I feel like since she saw people give her lock town reads she didn't feel the need to continue posting or trying as much. I am interested in why you scumread Dunn.

he's been doing literally nothing else though.

[Thestatusquo]

fwiw I don't think your logic in 1821 follows at all.

if anything the fact that they think they made the wrong decision on tchill because they didn't think enough implies towniness.

[Thestatusquo]

postie, how about you play the game you signed up for and tell rc to suck eggs?

[Thestatusquo]

Like i'm willing to listen to rcs input and I'm willing to listen to his reads but I think him dictating entire large posts and dictating the pace of the day is too much.

[Thestatusquo]

postie, how about you play the game you signed up for and tell rc to suck eggs?

How you gunna say I am dropping things when I say something that makes sense you completely fail to further the conversation? Like are you still Scum reading me? Why or why not? Otherwise it just looks like you are throwing shade honestly.

I have no idea what this is in reference to.

[Thestatusquo]

as I said, I'm willing to listen to rc, but I'm not willing to let him dictate the pace of play in a game hes not even playing. If he wants to make a post, make it. I don't see any reason for anyone to wait for him though.

RCs involvement is basically the only reason I'm wary of you fwiw. Regardless of how eddie flips I think both a bus and an aggressive push on a townie are things that are in RCs scum range.

[Thestatusquo]

I don't think anything you said in that conversation made sense.

[Thestatusquo]

RC wasn't really that involved until today. In a world where I'm scum do you think he tells me to bus Eddie day 1? Was my drive to get him lynched then down to RC? My case?

from my pov I have no way to know that this is true.

It's also just straight up false? you reference RC 4 times in your first 20 posts.

[Thestatusquo]

I don't think anything you said in that conversation made sense.

Well, then your not thinking critically enough.

Do you ever grant the possibility that maybe you're the one who is wrong?

[Thestatusquo]

I don't see RC's involvement on day 1 as that involved, but I guess it's a bit different from an outside PoV when you don't see the level of involvement behind the scenes. He gave the odd bit of input on occasion but mostly brushed me off when I asked him things; today he's been actively telling me to post stuff and been really open with his thoughts without needing any prompting.

What I mean wrt to my Eddie push is, like, read my posts. What do you think the chances are I can just fake that level of enthusiasm because RC told me to? How likely is it RC wrote a meta case that size for me and I just sat down and paraphrased the whole thing without any of it sounding like RC? Like I don't understand how you can read my posts for day 1 and think "yep this could all just be RC". That's both insulting to my play and the effort I've put in and incongruent with how bad you claim to believe RC is at the game.

this is a reasonable point, and I'm not attacking. Just suggesting that the only reason I'm wary of you is that there are things that I think you're doing that might be out of your scum range but are not out of RCs.

[Thestatusquo]

RC says he mostly just wants to highlight that the possibility of Ranmaru-scum should be taken seriously. He doesn't feel like making a bigpost anymore after seeing TSQ's response.
He says that restricting his input weakens the town on the whole, and that on day 1 after he'd commented on nsg meta and disliking Eddie's ISO he gave no input until EoD.

He sure does have a high opinion of himself.

As to ranmaru being scum, he/you have now shaded me and shaded ranmaru seemingly for no other reason than we were being loud and consensus town read. That's exactly what I would expect scum RC to do.

:/

[Thestatusquo]

i think she was lean-scummy while she was posting and her disappearance today hasn't helped that impression any.

[Thestatusquo]

just generated this vc.

Votecount 2.9

EddieFenix(6)

~ Postie, Thestatusquo, Davsto, Cogito Ergo Sum, Lycanfire, LicketyQuickety

Marquis(2)

~ EddieFenix, Dunnstral

LicketyQuickety(2)

~ Marquis, Gamma Emerald

northsidegal(1)

~ Ranmaru

Dunnstral(1)

~ ActionDan


Not Voting (1): northsidegal

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-18 19:30:00)

FLAVOR

This is an automated vote count generated by a tool written by MathBlade. It goes much smoother with exact votes but will try to detect bold votes and misspellings. If you have issues during this beta, please get MathBlade.

doesn't look like a hammer to me unless someones vote was missed.

[Thestatusquo]

reck posted a full read list. i'm presenting it here in a paraphrased form. Obviously I disagree with some stuff on it and am using it to supplement my reads rather than as the gospel truth. It's useful information for town to have though so I think I want to post it in full. It's not in any particular order.

SCUM | Dunnstral | Eddie | northsidegal | CES | Lycan | LQ | Gamma | Postie | Dan | Marquis | Davsto | Ran | TOWN

with the breaks being between nsg | ces and LQ | Gamma

Marquis:

believes he's legit busy because he follows him on snapchat (lol) and believes that hes trying when it would be easier for him to do nothing.

Ranmaru:

town for his earnest scum hunting and his flowing read progressions.

Postie:

he thinks postie is town because he thinks rc would be more likely to tryhard as town than scum here, and there are some other thoughts that I can't get into because they involve an ongoing game.

Dan:

he's seen dan in catchup mode as scum a number of times and he doesn't think this is dan scumcatchup. he thinks this is town dan trying to play from behind and similar to his thoughts on marquis he thinks we'd see a different tone in dans posts if dan were scumlurking here.

Eddie:

he wants to remind everyone that meta is garbage and that posties meta analysis is therefore garbage but says he independently scum reads eddie because he thinks him refusing to catch up and parroting gammas frustration with rules changes is the kind of thing he would expect from scum in this situation. He thinks eddie is scum who has given up and is trying to distance himself from as many associations as possible by not really interacting with anyone.

northsidegal:

didn't really understand why she was getting town read in the first place. Thought the early game had quite a few scum pings. he wants to contrast her recent posting of "oh sorry I'm lurking but don't worry I wouldn't do that as scum" is in pretty stark contrast to how dan and marquis have lurked because its more like the tone he would expect from a scum lurker as opposed to a town player who was behind.

Lycanfire:

doesn't really have a good handle on him as a slot but liked his pressure on nsg so he thinks hes a slight town lean.

LQ:

he thinks LQ is an actual crazy person and refuses to help me sort the slot.

CES:

he says he always scum reads ces, which is similar to my meta analysis earlier. he doesn't want him left in lylo. he wants to reiterate that meta is garbage and that my meta read is therefore garbage but wants to note that he was wrong about ces being scum in both the spinning paper and author mafia so that backs up my garbage point.

Dunnstral:

dunn has a whopping 48 post iso and if you dig deeper into it theres basically nothing there. theres no transparency on reads, there's shitty votes for lukewarm reasons. 1429 in particular is a really shitty and lukewarm reaction to davsto's eddie case. He doesn't like how he dicks around doing nothing until he votes eddie because its good enough for today. he never references 1429 again despite telling us that he was going to in order to decide if he was going to vote, then votes anyway without doing that.

Davsto:

he's the only other person in the game besides dan and ran who is earnestly trying to gamesolve.

Gamma:

some of D1 felt like a lot of fluff, but he likes his recent tone and attitude. his recent big 1815, arrives at a lot of conclusions that Reck shares which he thinks is more likely to come from a town mind set.

[Thestatusquo]

dat counter wagon tho.

[Thestatusquo]

I really don't like nsg's interaction with the eddie wagon btw.

they have said "it's something that needs to happen." and have attacked someone for taking their vote off of it. But they have managed to do this without taking a definitive stance on the wagon or on eddie himself, and have piled onto the counter wagon.

this is classic fence sitting.

if eddie flips scum, they can't be tagged with being against the wagon, after all they said it needed to happen and attacked someone for removing their vote from it, and hey theres a chance the counter wagon would be successful. if eddie flips town they can say they weren't on the wagon and led the counter and that they never supported it.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm not going to go into the details of town motivation vs. scum motivation or game theory re: white flag too deeply, but suffice it to say that you're approaching this wagon in one of the ways I would expect scum to approach the wagon.

[Thestatusquo]

I did already, they are that I think approaching the wagon the way you are allows you to stay relatively clean tomorrow regardless of the outcome and I don't see a lot of town motivation for almost complete avoidance of the most consequential topic of discussion right now.

Your response was to give me theory about how scum bus like crazy in white flag (something that is certainly not universally true) and to claim that no one gets any credit for not being on a town wagon (which is also something I think is just dead wrong.)

So I don't really know where you want me to go from there?

I want you to take a position on eddie and the wagon more helpful than "yeah, I guess thats a wagon alright."

If he's null, I want you to explain why, because it seems pretty hard to have him as null given there have been like 3 different cases and 1 defense from various different players.

[Thestatusquo]

those cases probably happened during the time when i was only kind of skimming the thread. i'll go back and read them now to try to refine my own read, i've just so far kind of put off talking about it because i don't really like just sheeping other people's reads – i like to have my own reads on things and i haven't had that for eddie so far.

also, you make it sound like i just resorted to theory as a defense, but you were the one who put forward theory as to why i'd be scum – your theory was that my fence sitting was beneficial to me as scum no matter how eddie flipped, because if he flipped scum i could take credit for the wagon and if he flipped town i could say that i wasn't on it. my response to that is that, at least for myself and the way i've dealt with the eddie wagon, there's no world in which i would reasonably get any "credit" for it, whether he flipped scum or town.

Ok so my problem with this is that when I jump back into a game as town, whether that be as a replacement or from my own inactivity, my first job is to understand what is going on and why, and that involves understanding where the current wagons are coming from and figuring out if they're good or not.

The fact that you seem to have no curiosity about this what I would call fundamental part of a catchup is another part of why your catchup doesn't feel genuine to me.

If you're town, why don't you care about sorting the player that is L minus freaking one?

[Thestatusquo]

ran curious what you think it tells us about nsg? want to see if it matches what I think it tells us about nsg

[Thestatusquo]

OK, so my biggest 3 suspects at this point are:

shea
Gamma
Marquis

Any particular reason for each on this list of three?

Ran, I'm pretty sure that I want to lynch somewhere in [Dunn, NSG, marquis] today. I'm least sure about marquis because of Reck's town read on him.

I have pretty lock town reads on ran lycan and davsto and everyone else is kind of in a mish mash of various town and scum leans.

[Thestatusquo]

I'd like to hear a couple things:

I want to hear NSGs opinions on the wagon, in terms of who was most opportunistic on it, who does she think is more likely to be scum from it, town from it, etc.

From Dunn I would like to hear a full read list with reasons for each player.

From marquis I would like him to outline who he would like lynch today and why.

[Thestatusquo]

Also I need to reread and recalibrate. Will give the results of that when I'm done.

As a note:

@mod and everyone: I'm going out of town this weekend for the magic the gathering and will have zero computer access. I'll try to follow along on my phone but I'm bad at posting on my phone

[Thestatusquo]

Oh and ran can I get an updated read list which takes postie-eddie flips into account? I'll give mine when I get done with my reread.

[Thestatusquo]

So your scum case against me is that you say stupid shit and then I call you out on it and that I was hoping to catch you in a contradiction about how you think you're playing this game?

zzzzzzzzzzzz.

LQ, I'm increasingly thinking you're town but could you at least try to sort the game?

[Thestatusquo]

Like actually this is why I'm pretty sure that LQ is town the more I think about it.

If he wanted to build a fake scum case on me he could pretty easily do it, but instead he trots out nonsense that is so unconvincing that I'm reasonable sure he has to actually believe it. No one would ever fake a case that bad.

[Thestatusquo]

Can gamma or anyone else suspecting lycan give me reasons why? I think his posts basically only come from town in this game so I'm worried I might be missing something there.

[Thestatusquo]

yeah, I looked at them and I already know what your narrative is going to be because its the same one you used to attack me earlier.

It hasn't gotten any better.

[Thestatusquo]

I have voted for people I think are scum. I was wrong on both of them.

That does indeed make me look bad, and is actually what I was referring to when I said that I think LQ could easily fake a case on me that was actually convincing but was not doing so.

So I guess strike that point.

Most of your points in the list of posts you have just stated have already been "explained" by me in the thread. Maybe you don't like my answers, but accusing me of not answering them is a misrepresentation.

[Thestatusquo]

yeah, I looked at them and I already know what your narrative is going to be because its the same one you used to attack me earlier.

It hasn't gotten any better.

Explain 751, 842, 845, 863, 1627, and 1787.

Here are the posts you want me to "explain" and I will also quote the post where I literally did explain them and apparently you're just ignoring that fact.

751: Do you think llamarble was being surface level here? I think picking down through to what might happen if eddie is town and hammers is far deeper analysis than scum players usually fake. Do you disagree? If so, why? Provide me examples of that kind of analysis being faked by scum. Because I haven't seen it and I've been playing 10+ years.


Heres 842:

@Ran I would happily kill either LQ or Tchill. Right now there is a wagon on one of them and not on the other. I have pretty high confidence in my scum reads on both of them, so I don't see why it makes sense for me to switch over to LQ at this time unless the wagon moved over there for some reason independent of me.

What is your strong SR on me based on? I expect some pretty strong evidence considering this is D1.

We had like a 5 page back and forth about what my scum read on your was based on. I explained it to you multiple times. We argued about it for pages.

There's literal no way you don't remember why I'm scum reading you. This is more well poisoning.

Oh look I responded, telling you to read the entire game. Because honestly I still don't understand how you could not understand how I was scum reading you. Here are some of the posts that I was trying to direct you to look back on that apparently you're too fucking lazy to do so.

I consider what people say about their play, but I don't let people tell me why they're doing the things they do because people lie. You know damn well I know you're quick and I believe I've told you that I've read your wiki, but I also recall you have something of a poor memory, so I forgive you for not remembering that.

The problem with your actions is that the things you're doing also have significant scum motivations. Regardless of if you think you're doing them for other reasons, I'm not in your head, and I can't just trust you.

And I also am starting to be pretty sure you're scum because you're poking and drawing almost no reasonable conclusions. You start long discussions with me about nonsense about how reck is using different tools to find reads, and then disengage as soon as I try to explain. That's the biggest problem here. You're poking, but you don't seem to care about the responses to your pokes. At least not from the people you're poking. You seem to be singularly interested in the responses of other players, which makes me think you're more interested in finding where you can find an easy lynch, and not concerned about finding the correct lynch. This squares quite nicely with your vote on marquis also, which you have not fully explained after naked voting. It's nice to be on the highest vote getter who happens to not be posting much.

Actually, literally all the votes on marquis right now are atrocious.

1) I didn't say you're going for the easiest lynch. I said you were going for an easy lynch, which I think "the second easiest lynch" would qualify as.

2) I don't agree with people just because they town read me. That's playing town 101. Please give me more credit than that, I've only been playing this game for 10+ years.

3) you seem to think that this read is coming out of nowhere out of one thing. That's not the case, and it doesn't come from lycan. Lycan's post just made me circle around to something thats been bugging me about your play for basically this whole game, which is what I laid out in my last post. You're poking everywhere, but you don't care about the persons response to the poking. You keep trying to figure out how the rest of the town is responding to the poking. That's the basis of me thinking that your motivation is not to find scum but to find where you can rally town support.

4) I am voting another scum read. I'm allowed to have multiple. Would happily switch to your wagon. I have been pretty transparent about how I feel about people. The reason I asked the question is that you haven't been. I have no way of knowing who you find scummy other than your vote, because you keep poking at cracks and moving on when a wagon doesn't form.

Like that vibe becomes even stronger with the conclusion.

It's another reason I think you're likely to be scum.

You keep trying to subtly discredit scum reads on you. And I just mean like, argue and dispute arguments, because theres obviously town motivation to do that. What I mean is you keep trying to weasel around people scum reading you. One example of it is trying to cast all the people scum reading you as not understanding how you play, and saying they were doing so because they didn't like you playing mechanically, when in fact doing so was not the reason I had stated I was scum reading you, nor do I think its a fair characterization of the reason others were.

Similarly, in this post you seem to be suggesting that llama has not done the work, and subtly implying that his reads on you aren't to be trusted. At no point has llama said or even implied he hasn't read your iso, so you throwing it out there like that reads to me as an attempt to discredit his arguments instead of trying to interact with them.

It's disingenuous. You're not making good faith arguments.

I laid out in GREAT FUCKING DETAIL why I thought you were scum. I did it multiple times. The fact that you couldn't fucking remember is not a fucking scum tell for me.

845

We had like a 5 page back and forth about what my scum read on your was based on. I explained it to you multiple times. We argued about it for pages.

There's literal no way you don't remember why I'm scum reading you

. This is more well poisoning.

You admitted yourself you know I have a bad memory. What the hell, man?

Oh my fucking god look I responded literally TWO POSTS AFTER.

We had like a 5 page back and forth about what my scum read on your was based on. I explained it to you multiple times. We argued about it for pages.

There's literal no way you don't remember why I'm scum reading you

. This is more well poisoning.

You admitted yourself you know I have a bad memory. What the hell, man?

This isn't some passing remark, this is the fundamental and huge part of this game. I simply do not understand how you could possibly have a position on me and how I've played this game without some understanding of why I am scum reading you. Nor do I believe that bad memory means "don't remember a huge thing that happened like 3 days ago"

I'm not relitigating the argument. I'm just saying the claim you're making in 850, that llamarble was interpreting my words without context and that I had done nothing to explain them and that I had never confirmed he was correct is DEMONSTRABLY false.

You've basically just said that your hard defence of Llama is completely baseless because otherwise you would see that my interpretation of what you said is correct and Llama's is incorrect. Reason for this is the point I bring up (which is a valid one) is that under what condition do I always vote for you in that situation. This is a situation that has not been answered and so it is NEW. We haven't talked about this yet and if we have, I don't remember getting an answer. So what I am seeing here is although MY interpretation of what you said is true and Llama's is false, you still SR me and TR Llama. How do you account for this disparity?

I didn't respond to this because its bullshit. your entire premise is false. Llamarble was correct and you were wrong. Full stop. Furthermore, clearly you should know I would have this opinion because again we already had a full page long argument about this. You are wrong. The fact that you literally have no idea what colloquial language is is again not a reason I am scum.

Are you honestly accusing me of having the dastardly scum plan of hoping that people don't realize that 3 does not equal exactly 7?!?!

Is that legitimately what you think is happening right now?

Did I say that is what is happening now?

So I'm scum because I didn't feel like having a fight with you about whether someone saying "in the middle" to mean "not at the very beginning" is valid? Thats fucking bizarre dude. I think you are mistaking me being frustrated with the fact that you don't make ANY fucking sense for a scum tell.

Frankly I hate talking to you because I never understand what you're saying and it seems like at times you're purposefully misunderstanding the things I'm saying. What is the point of pointing out that 3 does not literally equal 7 if you're not trying to suggest I'm misreping? What is the actual fucking point you're making because honestly I'm still not fucking sure, so I have no idea what you even would want me to engage with you on here.

@Ranmaru, Re: my reads changing with little progression. I have talked about this before on this site, see here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=72320

a lot of the problem is that its not like you really reevaluate, its like you shift from full town reading them to voting them with no warning and no indication that you were ever even remotely thinking of them as someone you might before.

Latest example being davsto.

Yeah, I do the opposite as well and change from Scum to Town reads this is just a part of my play, deal.

do you try to emulate this as scum?

I thought you didn't agree with self-meta. Why are you asking this question?

To answer, I think I have don't it in the past, but more often than not I try and have my reads "make sense" to Town members so it doesn't look like I am laking progression on people. It depends on the game. As Town, I just care more about constantly looking at things from different angles, so that is why my reads change like this. Ultimately, I would say switching reads like this is a tool I utilize, but it's not one I am constantly thinking about. Also, my perspective in doing this as Scum has more of an agenda, which is that I am usually in danger of getting lynched so I try and make it as hard to tie myself to my teammates as possible. And yes, I am actually pretty damn good at doing this considering I rarely see end game as Scum, but I still have a decent record as Scum. Really tho, much of my game as Scum is about confusing Town if I die. That is why I pull things like cross distancing with my teammates. I also try and make believable pushes on my teammates and it usually doesn't get them Lynched because I am actually horrible at pushing lynches because no one ever believes the reads I have. That's why it confuses Town so bad when I push my buddies - because they don't know what I was doing because my pushes make sense coming from me (at least on my teammates).

Literally already answered this. I was trying to catch you in a lie. I didn't. You weren't lying.

[Thestatusquo]

Also I don't understand why you think me not explaining the full details of my thought process to you specifically is a scum tell. I don't always explain my thought process, because not doing so allows me to catch people in contradictions and use my thought process later to read people. You literally just claimed to do the same thing a few posts back when you said you purposefully didn't explain what was scummy about my posts.

Your whole argument is basically that for some reason I'm not giving credence to your points and apparently this is a thing scum do. But I'm not giving credence to your points because they're mostly stupid and wrong, if you want me to be brutally honest, and sometimes I don't respond to you because I really don't like arguing with you because you're not even remotely rational and I fucking hate trying to litigate every detail of the very nature of the english language with you. None of this is a reason to scum read me, but it IS a reason why you are very unpleasant to talk to and why I have been avoiding it as much as I possibly can given that I'm still playing a game with you.

[Thestatusquo]

And you know what, if you want to scum hard scum read me for that, go right the fuck ahead.

[Thestatusquo]

How can you possibly say there was no counterwagon? Either of the first two days? It's something you keep saying but its not true.

[Thestatusquo]

Votecount 1.28

Srceenplay(5)

~ Thestatusquo, northsidegal, Dunnstral, Lycanfire, Llamarble

LicketyQuickety(3)

~ Ranmaru, Srceenplay, Gamma Emerald

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum

EddieFenix(1)

~ Postie


Not Voting (5): Davsto, Marquis, EddieFenix, ActionDan, LicketyQuickety

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-05 21:00:00)

There's a counter wagon on the tchill/screenplay wagon. He was at 7 before this counter wagon happened.

Votecount 2.10

EddieFenix(4)

~ Postie, Thestatusquo, Davsto, Cogito Ergo Sum

LicketyQuickety(3)

~ Marquis, Gamma Emerald, Ranmaru

Marquis(1)

~ EddieFenix

Dunnstral(1)

~ ActionDan

Davsto(1)

~ LicketyQuickety

Cogito Ergo Sum(1)

~ Lycanfire


Not Voting (2): northsidegal, Dunnstral

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-02-18 19:30:00)

Sorry for the delay had a lot of work stuff.

Here's a counter on the eddie wagon. Eddie was at 5 before this happened.

[Thestatusquo]

How can you possibly say there was no counterwagon? Either of the first two days? It's something you keep saying but its not true.

What is your read on Gamma?

how about you answer my question first.

OK, so my biggest 3 suspects at this point are:

shea
Gamma
Marquis

Any particular reason for each on this list of three?

Ran, I'm pretty sure that I want to lynch somewhere in [Dunn, NSG, marquis] today. I'm least sure about marquis because of Reck's town read on him.

I have pretty lock town reads on ran lycan and davsto and everyone else is kind of in a mish mash of various town and scum leans.

[Thestatusquo]

speaking of questions and lq, lq i don't believe you ever answered my question.

What was your question?

So what is your read on Gamma?

look literally 2 posts above this one.

[Thestatusquo]

TSQ you're not giving a read on me specifically there

No, nor was I trying to yet. I want to get him to answer my question which he seems resistant to doing?

[Thestatusquo]

I think my read on gamma is a pretty strong lean town. I had him there because I think that his jumpiness is indicative of town trying to figure out how to best use his vote, reck also town reads him if you refer to my big post of reck reads, because he feels like the conclusions he's coming to are generally the same as the ones gammas coming to.

[Thestatusquo]

TSQ you're not giving a read on me specifically there

No, nor was I trying to yet. I want to get him to answer my question which he seems resistant to doing?

I already answered. Like if that wasn't good enough I expect you to detail what exactly you want from my answer.

Was answering posts in sequential order, brah. Calm your sardines.

[Thestatusquo]

Ok, but that's not going to happen for a little bit.

I want to reread this game first, and as mentioned earlier I'm out of town without a computer this weekend and I don't plan on doing meta dives on my phone.

Also it would be a lot easier for me to look at gamma scum and town games if you gave me some idea of what I was looking for rather than this vague decree.

[Thestatusquo]

Ok, but that's not going to happen for a little bit.

I want to reread this game first, and as mentioned earlier I'm out of town without a computer this weekend and I don't plan on doing meta dives on my phone.

Also it would be a lot easier for me to look at gamma scum and town games if you gave me some idea of what I was looking for rather than this vague decree.

I can't tell you what to look for because then that defeats the purpose. I need to know what your unfiltered thoughts are on Gamma as Town and Gamma as Scum. I can ask other people. Who I ask isn't that important, I just want a few people to humor me with this.

I can ask a teammate if they have time to do it for me this weekend and see what they say.

[Thestatusquo]

It's gunna be cheet realistically because will thinks meta is garbage and Kilby is kind of checked out after his game ended.

[Thestatusquo]

it feels like lq has caught onto the people who say they shouldn't lynch him because he's lynchbait and too scummy to be town and so has doubled down on it

What do you think about my post about his case? Do you really think scum fakes a case like that? I have a really hard time seeing it and further I have a really hard time seeing scum doing it on purpose to level me into thinking scum wouldn't do that, which it seems is what you're arguing.

[Thestatusquo]

All of this is town v town nonsense I'm pretty sure.

[Thestatusquo]

I want people to Meta Dive Gamma and tell me if you see any glaringly obvious differences between his Town game and Scum game.

Yes and what does that have to do with ranmaru at ALL.

[Thestatusquo]

cheet says he'll get to it tomorrow if he's not still feeling sick.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm checking in on my phone but where the fuck am I defending Marquis? He's in my lynch pool right behind nsg and Dunn. I would happily lynch Marquis today.

[Thestatusquo]

So, LQ I have a whole bunch of things I'm going to respond to but I've decided that I'm not going to respond to your attacks on me anymore. For my sanity. I've said my peace and if you want to scum read me because you're not understanding the words I'm saying thats fine. I just can't talk about it anymore because frankly nothing I'm saying is getting through to you. It's not that I can't defeat your arguments, but rather that I have and you refuse to acknowledge it. I have no desire to continue to hash that out with you. Vote me, if you think I'm scum.

What I do want to talk to you about is that I have a whole bunch of cheet content on the gamma meta, do you still want this? It seems to me that you're off that now, but if you still want to hear what cheet has to say I'll take the time to paraphrase his wall posts.

[Thestatusquo]

Eh, fuck it. I'll post it anyway. He read your thing about unvotes before posting so was explicitly looking for it.

Cheets meta dive of gamma:

TownGame Anything UPick

Large amount of off topic posting
Serious from the very start of game with vote, Votes Whemeplay for suggesting shooting the vig.
There's very a very disappointingly low amount of him actually playing the game here.
Some setup spec, could maybe see him speccing on team comp if he doesn't ever setup spec as scum
Isn't afraid to be doing nothing and not pushing anything as town
Clumsy. Puts his foot in his mouth a bit.
Holds serious votes very long.
Is frequently annoyed at being pushed.
Gets lynched.

TownGame Gold Rush

Replaced in.
Says that he doesn't feel capable of playing a "deep wolf game."
This game happened after team mafia started, so very recent. Basically saying he doesn't think he can carry a scum team.
Not relevant to alignment, but cheet is annoyed that in his catchup he responds to single posts on at a time.
Doesn't vote at all in his catchup.
Suspicious of competent players who lurk
Unvotes very frequently as town here.
Votes Cabd basically for not engaging enough with the game.

TownGame Valentine's Dance

Setup specc at the very beginning of the game.
Is paranoid of the "good players" on the list.
Lots of pokes at peoples reads when they're expressing higher confidence than he thinks they should be.
Thinks overanalyzing setup spec is scummy. (lol)
Again, very tentative with pairing similar to with voting.
Scum really pushed for his ML
Gets really annoyed when people are worse than he expects of them
Says he has a reactive scum game.
He gets VERY angry.

ScumGame Mini Normal 1811

Asks busywork questions rather than commenting on things going on.
Unvotes.
LOT of buddy interaction. Way higher than most.
Another unvote.
Sheeps "townreads". We don't think we saw that anywhere in the town games we read.
He votes a lot more frequently as scum in this game.
Puts a lot of emphasis on distancing from his buddies.
He is less defensive and gets less angry at people for scum reading him.
More willing to compromise with his votes than the town games.
Votes a lot more frequently.
Lots of waffly fence sitting.
Literally no angry reaction to being pushed [to clear a scum buddy]

White Flag
Early vote on Marquis
Vote on Dunnstral
Unvotes
Votes TSQ
Cheet thinks he's taking this game a lot more seriously than any of the other games we read, and this comes out in his tone and his demeanor.
Unvotes while reviewing.
Votes LQ for being too argumentative for the sake of being argumentative
post 647 is a game that we would expect to see more in his town game than scum game.
Votes TChill for shading, bad reasons, etc.
Says that LQ is playing entirely reactively
Says he stopped reading about halfway through because he's tired of reading so many gamma posts.

But we got through several town games a scum game and half of this one.

General thoughts:

Cheet thought, before doing this dive that townGamma is generally obv town. But he's more lynchbaity than he originally thought based off of these games.

Gamma's scum game is pretty weak (based off of prior experience) He gets lynched d1-3 a lot, so cheet tried to dive a game where he lasted longer than that.

He thinks that given gammas self-evaluation of his scum game, he'd be very unlikely to take a scum slot unless he had the direct intention of being early bus fodder to clear his teammates.

He thinks that based off of what hes seen here he can only really see gamma as scum with LQ because of that, otherwise hes not really doing anything to overcome his self described "not deep wolf game." The rest of the pushing and engagement is too scattered to make sense otherwise.

With his votes, his scumgame was typically a little more votey, where his towngame is a lot more unsure and tentative.

He thinks that overall if he were reading this in a vacuum he would say the play is more similar to his scum game than his town game, but he doesn't think this is a super weight-y point because its possible that team mafia makes gamma play a lot more seriously than he typically does as either alignment, which is generally born out in the lack of shit posting in this game which you see constantly in other games of both alignments.

He reiterates that he thinks 647 is way more likely to come from town gamma than scum gamma.

There isn't really the waffly fence sitting or the awkwardness or the compromise in this game that we saw in his scum play.

Basically we still think he's more likely to be town than scum.

You also rarely see him unvoting in games he is Town.

This is untrue. We saw him unvote in literally all three town games. If anything, unvoting seems like a town tell to us. Though its likely not that either.

LQ wrote:

In this game, if you look at his votes, they are very "well I guess, not really sure" which looks really bad for him.

Cheet doesn't think this is true and he wants to know what votes you think it applies to.

[Thestatusquo]

Dunn and NSG I asked questions. Neither of you responded that I saw. Please do that, or point me to the response if I missed it somewhere?

LQ are you going to respond to the meta that cheet put a large amount of work into while he was sick because you asked him to, or is not responding to a post only scummy when I do it?

[Thestatusquo]

I'm not lynching ces over dunn nsg and marquis.

From my reread I didn't particularly like dunn at all. He and marquis are basically the same player in this game but one keeps getting tons of pressure and the other is getting none. Plus reck is screaming at me that dunn is scum in the discord.

Another thing that continually keeps coming up is LQ as a counter wagon to the town wagons. It's happened both days. I'm not huge on VCA but that does suggest to me that LQ is more likely to be town because there's not a lot of scum incentive to try to shift the wagon off of a town player that way, which means likely the early votes on his wagons were town as well.

VOTE: dunnestral

I want this before marquis and nsg. But I'd happily vote any of the three of them today.

@lycan

What do you think of my meta analysis on ces?

@LQ

is that a response to what cheet said?

[Thestatusquo]

Making life difficult for mods since 2006!

[Thestatusquo]

Why is literally no one interested in dunn? Take a second to read his iso. It's not very long.

[Thestatusquo]

Thats fine. I'll probably join you once I ascertain that no one wants to go after dunn.

[Thestatusquo]

Shea, I just want Marquis over dunn. I want you to look at Davsto hard. get back to me on that. Action Dan too.

I just reread the game, what do you want me to say about them?

High level:

Action dan and davsto are very similar players to me in how they've played. Every time they post I think they're town, but neither of them are actually doing much to advance the game and they don't seem to care about who is voted and why. Like, they say they care, and they have opinions, but they are both doing very little to actually achieve the goals.

I think I could actually see either of them as scum from the reread.

[Thestatusquo]

I mean part of the different nature of wagons can be attributed to the mountainous setup. In non-mountainous setups you push and then you maybe get a claim and then you evaluate and then people react to the claim which starts new wagons. You don't really have that here. Have you ever played mountainous before?

I also still think that you're not quite correct about the fact that there haven't been competing wagons on which to draw conclusions. A large part of why I think you're town has to do with how the wagons d1 and 2 shook out.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm poisoning your well to....imply you're town?

[Thestatusquo]

It's basically what I just said. A lot of the action in mafia is dictated by roles. They shape wagons and pushes (sometimes overtly, i.e. with guilties and sometimes not with neighborhoods and masons and what not.) when you remove that from the game you get a lot of people who are expecting the subtle ways that roles effect the way the game plays out.

One of those subtle ways is that often the purpose of wagoning is to get more game information. A claim, or a fake claim to evaluate and to read other peoples evaluations of those same things. In mountainous those things just don't exist, we're literally just voting for who is scum in our minds, so our behavior is slightly different. It definitely effects what happens at the end of wagons.

Try to think through what would happen if claiming were against the rules, or, better yet, if every single time you pushed someone to claim they claimed VT. Think about how that would change how wagons typically play out.

[Thestatusquo]

W...what?

[Thestatusquo]

Literally the only thing I can think of that might be called a "lie" is that I simplified some of the reasons that people vote (like, for instance, reaction tests and the like as well as to see how people deal with pressure or I mean, there's a bunch of other ones) because they weren't relevant to the thing I was discussing, and they obviously exist in both worlds.

But I am completely baffled by how LQ could possibly think me discussing OOG theory because I was asked to is in some way AI.

[Thestatusquo]

Yeah I don't see it from that. Also if I think about it like that, it means counter wagons are more important to release pressure on wagons on scum, since there are no roles to help salvage a slot. Counter wagons and also, being under the radar to avoid pressure.

That follows, yeah, but white flag is even different from that because of how buddying and bussing plays out vis a vis a normal mountainous game.

[Thestatusquo]

Thats kind of one of the things I was looking at in my re-read, which is part of why LQ is town to me and part of why I want to go after Dunn.

[Thestatusquo]

You haven't done a lot to push. You just make posts that lay out some of your internal monologue, and disappear for 24 hours. The vibe I get from you is not a leader or a follower, but a man babbling to himself in the corner.

That implies you're crazy, when clearly I don't think that, but I don't think you have to be a high impact player to have SOME impact. I think you've had literally none, and while this is in my experience just kind of how you play, its even more stark here than it usually is.

[Thestatusquo]

I also want to go back to this post:

those cases probably happened during the time when i was only kind of skimming the thread. i'll go back and read them now to try to refine my own read, i've just so far kind of put off talking about it because i don't really like just sheeping other people's reads – i like to have my own reads on things and i haven't had that for eddie so far.

also, you make it sound like i just resorted to theory as a defense, but you were the one who put forward theory as to why i'd be scum – your theory was that my fence sitting was beneficial to me as scum no matter how eddie flipped, because if he flipped scum i could take credit for the wagon and if he flipped town i could say that i wasn't on it. my response to that is that, at least for myself and the way i've dealt with the eddie wagon, there's no world in which i would reasonably get any "credit" for it, whether he flipped scum or town.

Ok so my problem with this is that when I jump back into a game as town, whether that be as a replacement or from my own inactivity, my first job is to understand what is going on and why, and that involves understanding where the current wagons are coming from and figuring out if they're good or not.

The fact that you seem to have no curiosity about this what I would call fundamental part of a catchup is another part of why your catchup doesn't feel genuine to me.

If you're town, why don't you care about sorting the player that is L minus freaking one?

Which lays out the crux of why I feel not great about NSG.

[Thestatusquo]

Nope.

[Thestatusquo]

It's because you say that Wagonomics won't work in this game because it's mountainous which is a load of liquidy diarrhea.

Please point to where I say that.

In fact I said the literal opposite. I said I'm not into VCA in general but that I think it clears you.

This is what I'm talking about. You're accusing me of saying something when in fact I'm literally saying the exact opposite.

I said that wagons develop differently, not that you can't read them.

[Thestatusquo]

I LITERALLY DID VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IN THE FUCKING POST THAT YOU'RE CLAIMING SAYS VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IS BAD.

LITERALLY.

FUCKING LITERALLY.

IN THE SAME POST.

YOU ARE LITERALLY FUCKING CLAIMING THAT I AM SAYING "VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IS NOT CORRECT SO I AM GOING TO NOW DO SOME VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS.

[Thestatusquo]

You know what.

Fuck you

VOTE: LQ

I don't give a fuck if you're town I'm not playing with you anymore.

[Thestatusquo]

I LITERALLY DID VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IN THE FUCKING POST THAT YOU'RE CLAIMING SAYS VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IS BAD.

LITERALLY.

FUCKING LITERALLY.

IN THE SAME POST.

YOU ARE LITERALLY FUCKING CLAIMING THAT I AM SAYING "VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IS NOT CORRECT SO I AM GOING TO NOW DO SOME VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS.

Yeah, you did it to get a Town read on me, someone who is such a wild card it doesn't even matter if I am a TR or not.

Where are you doing this to find Scum, Shea?

fuck you.

[Thestatusquo]

No you are not fucking right.

You are not right that a post that literally fucking contains vote count analysis is claiming vote count analysis is bad.

You are not right that I give a damn what you think about me being scum. Even if I were you couldn't get me lynched if you started me at L-2.

I'm fucking pissed that I have to put up with you continually not making a fucking iota of sense and spamming the thread with your reads which are literally garbage and then moving off of them immediately when people point out they're garbage.

I'm fucking pissed about not being able to literally make a theory point which is fucking COMMON SENSE about how wagons develop differently in mountainous games from roled games without you thinking its some grand plan to discredit you.

BRO I DON'T HAVE TO DISCREDIT YOU.

YOU DISCREDIT YOURSELF.

IF I WERE SCUM I WOULDN'T WASTE MY TIME RESPONDING TO A LITERAL THING YOU SAY BECAUSE LITERALLY NO ONE IN THE WHOLE GAME THINKS YOU'RE CORRECT ABOUT ANYTHING.

THE ONLY REASON I KEEP FUCKING TALKING TO YOU IS I THINK YOU'RE TOWN AND I WANT TO ACTUALLY LYNCH FUCKING SCUM AND I NEED YOU TO STOP READING THE MOST INNOCUOUS FUCKING POINTS I MAKE AS MALICIOUS IN ORDER FOR US TO DO THAT.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm going to step away from this game for 24 hours.

If I still feel like this after 24 hours I'm going to replace out.

I have literally never enjoyed playing with a single person less than I have enjoyed playing with you in this game.

[Thestatusquo]

"What do I do when all my points keep getting proven wrong? Idk halp."

[Thestatusquo]

Anyway I'm back, my team convinced me to stay.

VOTE: dunnestral

Not going to mention or listen to a single other thing LQ says the rest of this game.

[Thestatusquo]

name them you fucking irrational piece of shit

[Thestatusquo]

you fucking stating things haven't been answered when half the time I answered your puerile comment less than a half hour later.

Fucking. One of the ones you said I didn't answer I answered FUCKING TWO POINTS LATER.

[Thestatusquo]

Ok now, actually done. Don't talk to me. If you want to vote me fine. If you want to try to convince people to talk to me fine, but stop fucking addressing me.

[Thestatusquo]

*convince people to vote me.

[Thestatusquo]

That's an incredibly useless attitude, and kinda proving his point of you "dismissing" him.

I'm not dismissing him. I keep answering his posts and then literally he just accuses me of dismissing them again.

Its kind of at the point where I don't even know what to do anymore. I feel like I'm being fucking gaslighted.

Some of the posts he's now accusing me of "not answering" are literally answered two posts after he claims I didn't answer them. A whole bunch of the posts in the last thing he spoilered I literally answered the last time he accused me of not answering his points.

I honestly do not know how to make him feel like I'm answering his points when every single time I do it seems like he forgets and then accuses me of missing it again.

And its because initially I responded to the post saying "hey, show me where it says that because I'm pretty sure I said in that very same post that I was using VCA this game so I don't understand how you can possibly interpret what I'm saying to be "VCA isn't usable here." but then he just kept saying I said it and kept saying I was making an argument I had never made to advance an agenda I had never advanced and honestly I feel like I'm losing my god damned sanity.

[Thestatusquo]

Like do you want me to PBPA him or something? I think he's town. I don't see the point in that, and I've tried my damndest to respond to him and nothing I do seems good enough to him so frankly I'm just willing to let him call me scum repeatedly for no reason at this point and not engage.

[Thestatusquo]

Marquis and dunn need to either request replacement or eat rope, and possibly both.

[Thestatusquo]

Full case on dunn coming tomorrow.

Also, my team has told me I'm being a child re: LQ and that I should at least go through his last post of things I have supposedly "missed" and show how they're nonsense, so expect that tomorrow also.

[Thestatusquo]

Super busy at work today. Not gunna get to the stuff. Sorry folks.

Gamma, what would you like us to acknowledge?

[Thestatusquo]

Action Dan

: Sheep me. Trust me, remember when we hydrad? Did I not find scum? I want you to trust me, since you say you are having trouble finding scum. Follow me.

Shea

: I want you on this wagon. I want you to reconsider what Reck said. It doesn't look like anyone is interested in Dunn right now. Join me.

Davsto

: I also want you on this wagon. I am thinking CES is likely town. You town read me, so please join me.

Quick

: Join me on Marquis, since you null read him right now. You shouldn't have a problem joining then. Why wagon a person you consistently town read for most of the game? Get on this magnificent wagon with me.

Honestly I'm having trouble with this game right now. Interacting with LQ has made me dread opening the thread and I feel like I've lost my bearings and they weren't very good to begin with.

I'm willing to sheep you for the moment.

[Thestatusquo]

VOTE: Marquis

That's L-1.

[Thestatusquo]

Like I tried to go through LQs wall this morning and I couldn't bring myself to do so.

Like I ISOd dunn and didn't think anyone would vote him based off of the things I see pretty clearly.

I hate when I read someones iso and I'm so sure before hand that they're scum but then after reading through I have to conclude that its mostly gut.

I don't especially expect anyone to follow my gut.

[Thestatusquo]

i've given reasons in the past for why i think you're scum. i also get the feeling from the way you're framing things here that marquis is the scumteam's designated mislynch (this combined with dunnstral's later vote).

I acknowledge that you've mistakenly claimed I had a town read on Tchill before in order to paint my hammer in a scummy light; that was part of it.

don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him. even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.

i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you. especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

To be fair it seemed likely that Screenplay was salvaging a scumslot upon switching in. Otherwise, T-chill would have picked up the slack himself instead of lurking out. That's on T-chill. (Eddie too) It's bad play to lurk out as town.

You say you haven't seen any gamesolving or scumhunting from CES. Technically, he is scumhunting, and he is pushing for Marquis. Gamesolving, he isn't doing as much as I am, but that is his playstyle. This may be your first time playing with him, but he typically plays in a concise manner. I think Llamarble said that usually if he's town, he's pretty accurate. I think I have a good understanding of the game, and I feel Marquis does too. That's why Marquis knows how to pop in and seem town. I don't understand why you have had a null-town read on him all game though. I think you are also being unfair to CES. He asks you to look at Marquis's meta and you say you didn't look into it. #584 So, have you looked into that yet? Right now the person who needs to re-evaluate is you.

To add on to this, I made a post which contained some CES meta stuff that I think is relevant here.

post 1594

[Thestatusquo]

I received my prod. If someone can give me anything I've missed over the last 5 pages that would be great. I did a skim but it's possible some finer details escaped me.

I see LQ is voting for more nonsense tunnel stuff and we're voting my number 1 scum read now instead of my number 3 scum read!

Is that about the gist?

I'm happy to move over to VOTE: NSG

I'm still waiting for an explanation about why you were not even remotely curious about the lead wagon when you did your catchup? Why were you perfectly content to just let what you thought was a misslynch happen while doing nothing to stop it?

[Thestatusquo]

p.s. I still think ces is nullish town because of the meta analysis and the fact that this sort of singularly focused tunnel is more likely to come from town ces than scum ces. I don't want to lynch ces today. I would lynch Marquis NSG or Dunn.

[Thestatusquo]

Hey Shea. Recent pages: I push Action Dan, and NSG, and LQ does his distraction thing again. I think your biggest mistake is town reading him. I want us to talk through that read. Especially the counter wagon thing. Since I pushed his wagon D1 especially. I think everyone has to make sense of LQ's whole play or otherwise he will destroy the towns chances of being able to rationally find scum with his noise.

I think his single minded push on me is townie. I think a scum player would not continually push cases that are so objectively wrong. He even admits it multiple times by saying things like "I know my shea case is shit." etc. I think scum is in general much more concerned with looking good than with being right. I think that LQs mindset suggests a singular belief that he is correct and he cares more about that than seeming consistent or logical or good. I think that mindset is WAY more likely to come from town than scum. I think it's actually very hard to fake as scum. Keely has a town tell which he refers to as being "confidently wrong." I.E. the willingness to look like an idiot and be confident about it is just WAY more likely to come from town than scum.

My counter wagon point (the VCA that LQ accuses me of calling useless even though I am doing VCA.) is basically that I think that two town wagons means that we would not have a counter wagon on VI town either of those days that would have picked up steam. I posted VCs which showed that on day 1 and 2 both wagons both the town mislynches went from L-3 and L-2 (I think respectively but I don't remember exactly without checking) to pretty competitive votes with LQ. I think its unlikely that would happen with scum players and wagons on town players primarily. Like, why would scum try to counter those wagons?

[Thestatusquo]

Dan, my biggest issue with NSG was her catchup where she displayed a fundamental lack of curiosity about the lynch that was on the block who she was null town reading.

When I as town catchup on games, thats the NUMBER ONE thing I'm interested in, especially as we approach deadline. When I'm scum I tend to just look for my name.

What do you think of that? How can you explain that catch up from a town mindset?

[Thestatusquo]

We are not lynching AD today.

[Thestatusquo]

Like we are 3 days from deadline we have to start coming to a consensus, and there are way better lynches. I.E. Dunn, marquis and NSG.

[Thestatusquo]

you're talking about 2936?

Yeah I'll get to it at some point.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm still waiting for an explanation about why you were not even remotely curious about the lead wagon when you did your catchup? Why were you perfectly content to just let what you thought was a misslynch happen while doing nothing to stop it?

i've already explained this.

I already responded to that. I was largely ignoring eddie because I figured that the wagon on him was inevitable, and nothing pinged me enough to think it was worth derailing it entirely by myself.

I responded to that post. You didn't respond to my continued prodding on the subject.

[Thestatusquo]

those cases probably happened during the time when i was only kind of skimming the thread. i'll go back and read them now to try to refine my own read, i've just so far kind of put off talking about it because i don't really like just sheeping other people's reads – i like to have my own reads on things and i haven't had that for eddie so far.

also, you make it sound like i just resorted to theory as a defense, but you were the one who put forward theory as to why i'd be scum – your theory was that my fence sitting was beneficial to me as scum no matter how eddie flipped, because if he flipped scum i could take credit for the wagon and if he flipped town i could say that i wasn't on it. my response to that is that, at least for myself and the way i've dealt with the eddie wagon, there's no world in which i would reasonably get any "credit" for it, whether he flipped scum or town.

Ok so my problem with this is that when I jump back into a game as town, whether that be as a replacement or from my own inactivity, my first job is to understand what is going on and why, and that involves understanding where the current wagons are coming from and figuring out if they're good or not.

The fact that you seem to have no curiosity about this what I would call fundamental part of a catchup is another part of why your catchup doesn't feel genuine to me.

If you're town, why don't you care about sorting the player that is L minus freaking one?

You have now responded saying that you ignored the wagon because you assumed the lynch was inevitable, but that doesn't actually interact with what I'm saying. The fact that you ignored it because you assumed it was inevitable was my whole point. You just came into the game, did a "catch up," assumed the lynch was inevitable, without determining whether the points were good or not (you mentioned a couple of times that you had not even read the various cases on him despite me asking you to do so like 2 times and despite me asking you for your opinion on those cases)

Despite the fact that you had called eddie various levels of town all of the day and the previous one?

You thought there was no benefit in reading why he was being attacked and disagreeing with it? How did you know the lynch was inevitable when you DIDN'T EVEN BOTHER to read peoples reasons for it.

[Thestatusquo]

I really fucking hate "I'm obvtown by play" in the face of like 3-4 people scum reading you for your play.

Like, even if you are town thats just not a legitimate defense to being scum read.

And even if you think it is, just flatly stating it isn't legitimate.

Why are you obv town by play? Please explain what about your play is obv town?

[Thestatusquo]

Did ran propose a full scum team and I'm missing it?

[Thestatusquo]

Multiple times, yes. Me / Dan / Quick.

Where? I see a lot of him saying he has high confidence scum reads on you three, but if hes explicitly said "the team is xyz" I'm not seeing it?

This seems like a misrep of his argument to me based on things like this:

I post that. I'm confident all three of you are scum. You should know, I was your hydra partner and was just as confident in that game too and influenced the game to the point we found scum, so I don't see how you are that confused I'd post such a video towards you, and I have posted that video before. (It's my favorite video to show to scum I'm confident in)

Where he is saying that he has high confidence scum reads but not high confidence scum reads together.

I often have scum reads that don't interact well with each other (i.e. wouldn't make sense together but do make a lot of sense individually as scum) so I don't see why you would have an issue with a position like this.

But its possible I'm missing him explicitly stating that you are the scum team as you're claiming rather than just saying he has three strong scum reads.

Quote it for me if thats the case.

[Thestatusquo]

I am mobile right now. If you want to post a chart here, go ahead. Then you will have to prove mathmatically why you have not received a scum role pm. (But not sure on the rules on that) More later, driving to work.

Ok so this is a really bizarre post.

[Thestatusquo]

Votecount 3.11

Dunnstral(3)

~ ActionDan(38), Marquis(23), LicketyQuickety(234)

Cogito Ergo Sum(3)

~ Lycanfire(33), Davsto(18), northsidegal(86)

northsidegal(2)

~ Ranmaru(275), Thestatusquo(79)

Marquis(1)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum(23)

ActionDan(1)

~ Gamma Emerald(114)


Not Voting (1): Dunnstral(10)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

MOD REMINDERS

Dunnstral needs a prod. The last post was at: 2/24/2018 1:11:00 AM which was 2 days 12 hours 47 minutes 22 seconds ago.

FLAVOR

This is an automated vote count generated by a tool written by MathBlade. It goes much smoother with exact votes but will try to detect bold votes and misspellings. If you have issues during this beta, please get MathBlade.

Performed 17 calls in 613 seconds. With an average of 36.0784705882353 seconds per call.

[Thestatusquo]

I don't understand how anyone could prove mathematically the thing you asked her to prove.

Or how you could think thats a reasonable burden.

All of these things are probabilistic not deterministic.

[Thestatusquo]

I just think its setting her up for failure. You can't mathematically prove you did or did not get a scum PM. Suggesting you want her to do that is pretty unreasonable.

[Thestatusquo]

Marquis ignored me again

Hopefully they find time to talk about why they're voting me before deadline.

Hopefully your scum butt will find time to actually do something besides defend against the one vote on you and maybe I don't know vote or tell us who you think is scum or...you know really anything at all.

[Thestatusquo]

Also, I just want to throw this out there:

I absolutely hate this "tournament solving" perspective. I think its mostly nonsense. It boils down to either wifom (who on the team would take a scum PM, which mainly only works in the context of extremes, like a team that has one very good scum players and four very bad ones.) OR it's the gamblers fallacy. (all games were rolled independently of each other. Player A on team 1 rolling a scum PM does not do anything to increase or decrease the chance that player B on team 1 also rolled a scum PM. The same way me getting pocket kings in a hand of poker does nothing to influence the likelihood of me getting pocket kings on the next hand. The two events are independent of each other in terms of probability.)

Even if there were some merit to it, which as I said I don't think there is, there's no indication to me that its better than just regular ol' scum hunting and meta analysis for finding scum players. I think that's been pretty reflected in my teams thoughts over the course of the tournament.

Basically I hate it and I wish a50 would stop doing it. Obviously I can't make him stop, but I'm giving it zero credence in my analysis of this game.

[Thestatusquo]

Also, I just want to throw this out there:

I absolutely hate this "tournament solving" perspective. I think its mostly nonsense. It boils down to either wifom (who on the team would take a scum PM, which mainly only works in the context of extremes, like a team that has one very good scum players and four very bad ones.) OR it's the gamblers fallacy. (all games were rolled independently of each other. Player A on team 1 rolling a scum PM does not do anything to increase or decrease the chance that player B on team 1 also rolled a scum PM. The same way me getting pocket kings in a hand of poker does nothing to influence the likelihood of me getting pocket kings on the next hand. The two events are independent of each other in terms of probability.)

Even if there were some merit to it, which as I said I don't think there is, there's no indication to me that its better than just regular ol' scum hunting and meta analysis for finding scum players. I think that's been pretty reflected in my teams thoughts over the course of the tournament.

Basically I hate it and I wish a50 would stop doing it. Obviously I can't make him stop, but I'm giving it zero credence in my analysis of this game.

Actually it's

not

Gambler's fallacy. Roles were given to teams, then teams picked their roles. So there is team input as to who gets which role.

It's not the gamblers fallacy who picked what roles, I call that wifom.

However any arguments that have been made about team comp ARE gamblers fallacy, when they start talking about "oh, x player is more likely to be scum because y players flipped town" which is 100% the gamblers fallacy.

[Thestatusquo]

Like, in all but the most extreme examples its completely wifom who took what PM. Almost every team has multiple competent scum players and there are very few people in the whole tournament who I would be confidant that they would never take a scum PM.

You just simply can't look at any of these teams and say "x player would take scum here" with any high degree of certainty.

[Thestatusquo]

I have interest in voting dunnestral.

[Thestatusquo]

I just think its setting her up for failure. You can't mathematically prove you did or did not get a scum PM. Suggesting you want her to do that is pretty unreasonable.

You are just noticing that Ranmaru is doing this now??? OK...

Most of what hes been saying has been rational. But this is the first time I've noticed him explicitly set someone up for failure like this. If you have other examples I'd love to see them.

[Thestatusquo]

I think Dunn is the most scummy player in the game after eddie.

Let's hear it

Shea, whatever happened to this?

You dropped a "Dunn is the second Scummiest person in the game" and then you don't pursue it AT ALL D3??? Why not?

i already answered this. I don't understand how you can be scum reading me if apparently you're not even reading my posts?

[Thestatusquo]

Shea, get back to me on the Quick post.

CES, I had NSG respond to your post. Talk to me about her and my lynch pool.

Will get back to others (Dan, NSG) tonight.

I'm not avoiding it, I just haven't gotten to it yet.

[Thestatusquo]

Yeah I read the posts, I'm not sure what you'd like me to do with them though.

The only read I really agree with is NSG. I've laid out why I disagree on lq a couple of times and I think that there is some percentage chance dan could be scum but I think he's at best the fourth person I would lynch today.

I'm not here much during the evenings or weekends, but I'll try to pop in later tonight before I go to bed to see your follow up here.

[Thestatusquo]

I think Dunn is the most scummy player in the game after eddie.

Let's hear it

Shea, whatever happened to this?

You dropped a "Dunn is the second Scummiest person in the game" and then you don't pursue it AT ALL D3??? Why not?

i already answered this. I don't understand how you can be scum reading me if apparently you're not even reading my posts?

Really? Really? You're accusing me of not reading your posts?

Let's be real here for a moment.

I have been looking at some things from earlier in the game.
One of those things happen it catch my eye.
I decided to bring it up so it could be discussed.
The point in question seems pretty damn important IMO.
You then accuse me of not reading your posts like I am suppose to have your whole fucking ISO memorized or some shit.
I mean, really, how obtuse can you get?

you have at least 4 times this game accused me of not responding to you when I literally directly responded to you. Sometimes 2 or 3 posts after the post you are claiming that I didn't respond to.

i dont expect you to have my fucking iso memorized but if you're going to accuse me of not following up on something or ignoring something, you might want to check that if I did first.

[Thestatusquo]

I think Dunn is the most scummy player in the game after eddie.

Let's hear it

Shea, whatever happened to this?

You dropped a "Dunn is the second Scummiest person in the game" and then you don't pursue it AT ALL D3??? Why not?

Like I tried to go through LQs wall this morning and I couldn't bring myself to do so.

Like I ISOd dunn and didn't think anyone would vote him based off of the things I see pretty clearly.

I hate when I read someones iso and I'm so sure before hand that they're scum but then after reading through I have to conclude that its mostly gut.

I don't especially expect anyone to follow my gut.

try reading the fucking thread.

[Thestatusquo]

the reason is that I thought dunn was scum and I was sure there would be lots of stuff that was scummy when I went through his iso and then there just wasn't...

so I was kind of forced to conclude that my read is gut and I'm not going to sit here pushing a gut read when clearly my gut has been horrifically wrong this game.

[Thestatusquo]

The reason there isn't a lot to go on for Dunnstral is that there isn't a lot there. He was most active (which is a huge overstatement) D1, with most notably presenting and pushing a T-chill scum meta case.

He's still very likely scum from what he has posted that isn't part of the above.

right which is why I'm still scum reading, but I was expecting to read his posts and go "yeah, this is scum and this is why" but instead I read his posts and I just kind of went "meh."

I'm just reexplaining for captain "hey you ignored me/didn't respond to me/didn't post this thing" when I did do those things over there.

[Thestatusquo]

the reason is that I thought dunn was scum and I was sure there would be lots of stuff that was scummy when I went through his iso and then there just wasn't...

so I was kind of forced to conclude that my read is gut and I'm not going to sit here pushing a gut read when clearly my gut has been horrifically wrong this game.

Yeah, let's talk about your reads this game..

So far, you've done a really good job of casing Town as Scum.. Enough that I wouldn't exactly call it "gut."

What's the story behind your cases that you think are based on gut? Where else have you mentioned gut reads? Hold on, I will check myself.

So it turns out that on page 1 of your ISO the word "gut" appears exactly one time, from a quote wall where you didn't even say it.
On page 2 of your ISO, the word gut appears 7 times in total. Care to guess how many of those times were said recently? You said it Twice in your Whole ISO before I brought up this point to begin with.
So then for you to cry and whine about your "gut" being bad, it just doesn't make any sense to me why you would say something like that. Unless you are trying to cover for the two mislynches you were on, which were not at all "gut" reads, but actually spelled out in "great fucking detail."

I literally could not care less about anything you have to say.

like our interactions have gone like this.

me: says a thing.

you: something related to that thing.

me: reply, explaining how you are mistaken.

you, 10 pages later: YOU NEVER RESPONDED TO THAT THING I SAID.

me: yes I did. here is the direct quote of me doing so.

you: OK COOL SO YOU DID THIS TIME BUT WHAT ABOUT THESE 10 OTHER TIMES YOU'VE ALREADY DEBUNKED.

me: ...

you: PS lets talk about you being scum for some other absolutely bizarre reason.

frankly, fuck off. again.

[Thestatusquo]

cue LQ post being frantically typed right now because I am saying he said things but he didn't actually say those exact words because he doesn't know about the existence of paraphrasing or satire.

[Thestatusquo]

Here's how I'm feeling right now:

Shea seems to have skimmed and only cared to look at my one mobile post, instead of talking to me about the posts I linked to him or my read on Quick. I get the feeling he's simply stuck on a lynch line without really trying to reconsider based on new information. (Like action dan coming in thread and doing a big vouch for NSG) I did not like his tone. I did like the quotes that Quick brought up, which includes him strongly scum reading Quick, but D2, he simply prioritizes Eddie over LQ and then he never reconsiders. Today he isn't really doing as much and his pool isn't that good. (I would say NSG would be the only one that would be legitimate since I and others did have concerns with her, the others are more just lynch bait right now) He simply has focused on skimming and didn't seem as interested in reading the posts I linked to him until prodded to do so. I feel like he talked about Action Dan and Davsto being possible scum yet he doesn't even consider it for today before his pool, which doesn't really look like narrowing down to the most optimal lynch that can find scum.

I expected a little more from CES, I don't get the feeling that he's willing to compromise since he doesn't show a pool. His posts today are a little bit under-whelming. I also don't understand why he'd give observations of NSG and Action Dan (that seem to be concerns) but he doesn't really follow up with them nor shows interested in following up with NSG. I want to point out that in the other game he was more hyper, more intent on the words 'victory' but hasn't really said that as much here.

I dislike Action Dan's #2937. Again, it seemed he was more inclined to focus on undermining my position, and defending NSG hard without actually focusing on town hunting, since he has Gamma in a low null (?) position that he is not willing to talk to me about. Plus I find it odd he doesn't question Shea on his vote on Eddie.

My lynch pool is now [Shea, CES, Action Dan].

Vote: CES

No, I read your posts that you linked. Like I said I understand your reasoning, I just simply don't agree with it.

[Thestatusquo]

Like my read is really based on the two things that I laid out on LQ. I just don't think they outweigh the reasons I am town reading him. Apparently you are now town reading his as well, as your lynch pool is now me CES and Dan?

Like why are you scum reading me now because you seem to have agreed with me on the point I am trying to make that LQ is town?

[Thestatusquo]

*I just don't think the posts you quoted

[Thestatusquo]

Like, shea's read on Dunn sticks out like a sore thumb. Everyone else he has reasons for. With Dunn he just says that even thought he SRs hir, its just a gut read so he doesn't want to push it. That just seems really uncharacteristic of Shea. Who agrees?

Do I need to go through my meta and find instances of me gut reading people as town? Are you really scum reading me because I have a gut read I'm having trouble supporting, because literally thats what you've been doing to me the whole game.

Further, what do you think is the scum motivation for this? You think that as scum I thought to myself "huh, I'll make up good reasons on a bunch of people but then I'll include one person I don't have reasons which will...do what, exactly?" That's something thats way more likely to be null or even a town tell. There's no scum motivation to have reasons for all of your reads but one.

God will you get out of this tunnel fucking PLEASE.

[Thestatusquo]

The reason there isn't a lot to go on for Dunnstral is that there isn't a lot there. He was most active (which is a huge overstatement) D1, with most notably presenting and pushing a T-chill scum meta case.

He's still very likely scum from what he has posted that isn't part of the above.

right which is why I'm still scum reading, but I was expecting to read his posts and go "yeah, this is scum and this is why" but instead I read his posts and I just kind of went "meh."

I'm just reexplaining for captain "hey you ignored me/didn't respond to me/didn't post this thing" when I did do those things over there.

OK. Let's ask a question to Shea:

Do you really think that your answer on why you haven't done pretty much anything with Dunn this entire game is at all satisfying?

People have gut reads. I have a gut read. I have gut reads all the time as town. All players have gut reads all the time as town. Is it satisfying? No? That's exactly why I'm not pushing it? Because I don't think its convincing.

But I am being honest with my reads even if they're not convincing.

[Thestatusquo]

@Ran I would happily kill either LQ or Tchill. Right now there is a wagon on one of them and not on the other. I have pretty high confidence in my scum reads on both of them, so I don't see why it makes sense for me to switch over to LQ at this time unless the wagon moved over there for some reason independent of me.

But quoting this, because I can.

Why?

Do you think somehow people are going to forget that I had a scum read on tchill that was wrong?

Almost everyone in the town had a scum read on tchill.

I had a scum read on you that I am also convinced is wrong.

Again, you are tunneling and conf biasing. This is yet another town tell that you're calling scummy. If I were scum it would benefit me way more to continue with my scum read of you considering gamma and ran were scum reading you at the time. But I didn't because you're town and I will fight against your lynch even though you are making this game a living hell for me with this stupid confirmation bias tunnel.

[Thestatusquo]

sure, but I'm just wondering what is the cause of your markedly different tone between how you're engaging with postie and ces considering they're basically doing the same thing?

What happened to this?

I forgot about this! Thanks!

Hey dunn, whatever happened to this? I remember you engaging with CES and postie completely different, and the answer to this is actually even more relevant now that we've had a postie flip.

Please answer.

[Thestatusquo]

the reason is that I thought dunn was scum and I was sure there would be lots of stuff that was scummy when I went through his iso and then there just wasn't...

so I was kind of forced to conclude that my read is gut and I'm not going to sit here pushing a gut read when clearly my gut has been horrifically wrong this game.

Yeah, let's talk about your reads this game..

So far, you've done a really good job of casing Town as Scum.. Enough that I wouldn't exactly call it "gut."

What's the story behind your cases that you think are based on gut? Where else have you mentioned gut reads? Hold on, I will check myself.

So it turns out that on page 1 of your ISO the word "gut" appears exactly one time, from a quote wall where you didn't even say it.
On page 2 of your ISO, the word gut appears 7 times in total. Care to guess how many of those times were said recently? You said it Twice in your Whole ISO before I brought up this point to begin with.
So then for you to cry and whine about your "gut" being bad, it just doesn't make any sense to me why you would say something like that. Unless you are trying to cover for the two mislynches you were on, which were not at all "gut" reads, but actually spelled out in "great fucking detail."

I literally could not care less about anything you have to say.

like our interactions have gone like this.

me: says a thing.

you: something related to that thing.

me: reply, explaining how you are mistaken.

you, 10 pages later: YOU NEVER RESPONDED TO THAT THING I SAID.

me: yes I did. here is the direct quote of me doing so.

you: OK COOL SO YOU DID THIS TIME BUT WHAT ABOUT THESE 10 OTHER TIMES YOU'VE ALREADY DEBUNKED.

me: ...

you: PS lets talk about you being scum for some other absolutely bizarre reason.

frankly, fuck off. again.

You have an outstanding balance from 30 pages ago, thank you very much for your cooperation.

Not really. The reason I didn't fully respond to that post was that I had already answered almost all of the things you were claiming I hadn't and you just missed the answers or they had been answered in other posts OR I had just stopped responding to that thread because I thought you were being obtuse and I can't argue with you when you refuse to even give my most baseline points credence.

Like the VCA point. Are you willing to admit you were wrong on that? And that I was not attacking vote count analysis and was merely just talking about some pretty non-controversial theory?

Like its exhausting to go through a 30 paragraph post of things that either I think you're just being wrong about OR have missed my answer to. I tried to do and couldn't make myself complete it.

You're going to say thats unsatisfying, and maybe it is, but I have finite time and motivation. Given that you've pretty much conf biased yourself into thinking I'm scum regardless of what I say I don't really feel like its a good use of my time. You're just going to come up ten pages later with the literal same page of quote.

actually do this. you posted a wall of posts that you said I hadn't responded to. then I responded to them showing you that in some cases I had responded to them, sometimes literally 2 posts later, and then your response was to post a new wall, which contained at least 3 of the things I had literally just responded to in my response to the first wall of posts. do you actually expect me to keep answering the same points ad nauseam while you accuse me of missing them? Please tell me why? Why are you doing this to me?

[Thestatusquo]

We had like a 5 page back and forth about what my scum read on your was based on. I explained it to you multiple times. We argued about it for pages.

There's literal no way you don't remember why I'm scum reading you. This is more well poisoning.

This 5 page back and forth never really happened. I counted like 2 times that shea quoted me going back to about post 700.

Well...yeah...because it happened on day 1. When I was hard scum reading you. And we had a long conversation about it. That happened I don't know BEFORE POST 700.

what were your motivations for that conversation with me? it felt like you were trying to see if you could poke around and find traction to start getting a wagon on me, but no one jumped on it so you abandoned it and moved on. you've thrown a lot of shade my way but have avoided attacking me directly. I think that's kind of what lycan was getting at, and I think its pretty clearly true.

so I'll ask you this: are you scum reading me, and if so: why arent you voting me?

I consider what people say about their play, but I don't let people tell me why they're doing the things they do because people lie. You know damn well I know you're quick and I believe I've told you that I've read your wiki, but I also recall you have something of a poor memory, so I forgive you for not remembering that.

The problem with your actions is that the things you're doing also have significant scum motivations. Regardless of if you think you're doing them for other reasons, I'm not in your head, and I can't just trust you.

And I also am starting to be pretty sure you're scum because you're poking and drawing almost no reasonable conclusions. You start long discussions with me about nonsense about how reck is using different tools to find reads, and then disengage as soon as I try to explain. That's the biggest problem here. You're poking, but you don't seem to care about the responses to your pokes. At least not from the people you're poking. You seem to be singularly interested in the responses of other players, which makes me think you're more interested in finding where you can find an easy lynch, and not concerned about finding the correct lynch. This squares quite nicely with your vote on marquis also, which you have not fully explained after naked voting. It's nice to be on the highest vote getter who happens to not be posting much.

Actually, literally all the votes on marquis right now are atrocious.

You've quoted this post and your response to it literally hundreds of times. How you could have forgotten about it is beyond me.

1) I didn't say you're going for the easiest lynch. I said you were going for an easy lynch, which I think "the second easiest lynch" would qualify as.

2) I don't agree with people just because they town read me. That's playing town 101. Please give me more credit than that, I've only been playing this game for 10+ years.

3) you seem to think that this read is coming out of nowhere out of one thing. That's not the case, and it doesn't come from lycan. Lycan's post just made me circle around to something thats been bugging me about your play for basically this whole game, which is what I laid out in my last post. You're poking everywhere, but you don't care about the persons response to the poking. You keep trying to figure out how the rest of the town is responding to the poking. That's the basis of me thinking that your motivation is not to find scum but to find where you can rally town support.

4) I am voting another scum read. I'm allowed to have multiple. Would happily switch to your wagon. I have been pretty transparent about how I feel about people. The reason I asked the question is that you haven't been. I have no way of knowing who you find scummy other than your vote, because you keep poking at cracks and moving on when a wagon doesn't form.

And I know why people are Scum reading me. I think Lycan hit on this point and so did Postie a bit.

It's because people are interpreting my play as "mechanical" and for some reason they thing this means I am Scum. Instead, I would say I am trying to play in a logical way with a big picture outlook on the game. That means I am not going to get into specifics of relating what Player X did at point A and compare that to what Player Y did at Point B. I have never played that way so if people expect me to play that way, I am sorry to say that they will be disappointed. How I play is looking at posts in isolation and seeing if they are internally logical insofar of what I know to be logical comparing this to what I think is the correct way to play. I sometimes compare a post they made somewhat recently to what they are saying, but I am not going to remember something that someone said on page 5 at this point. I will, however, ISO players occasionally and I will usually do this if someone asks me to.

I don't think your summary up there is even remotely responsive to why I am scum reading you. I don't give a damn if you play mechanically or not. I laid out in detail why I think you're scummy, and its mainly because I don't actually see you doing the thing you say you're doing here. I see you starting conversations and interactions with people and then trying to gauge town reactions to those things and disengaging with the pokes as soon as its clear people aren't going to start voting the person. Like, I have no doubt you would have voted me after our exchange if a couple of other people had.

The problem I am having with the SRs on me is that there isn't much probing from players who are Scum reading me. Some players are doing this, but most of what people are bringing to me as an inquiry are things that I don't see a whole lot of relevance to actually sort me. Examples include Postie asking me to ask my teammates what their reads on players are in this game and Lycan asking me why I had a change in perspective on Marquis reads list. Shea has probably been the person who has looked like they have tried to sort me the most, but I am not going to TR him just solely on that fact.

Do you think the methods others are using on you are ineffective or disingenuous? These are different claims, and I think one might be true, but also I don't think its the one you're claiming.

I think this game has become too lopsided. Lots of people voting a single lurker for being a lurker (Marquis) with most people on the wagon having little demonstrated reason for being there. Then you have most of the active players who are fighting amongst themselves mostly and a lot of people who have very little content who are getting by with not doing a whole lot of anything. The state of the game isn't a good one for Town currently - especially considering that a lot of people have expressed that they are Scum read me, whom I consider myself to generally be a Town leader when I am Town. I cannot yet tell who or how many Scum players are going to try and actively push my lynch, but there will most certainly be Scum on my lynch if it happens, so look at those on my wagon upon my lynch.

Homie you were literally voting for that lurker ONE PAGE AGO. With NO EXPLANATION YOURSELF. Literal naked vote. Then you jumped on another wagon without demonstrating or explaining any sort of scum read there. WHY are you voting TChill? WHY did you vote marquis? People aren't scum reading you because you're mechanical, they're scum reading you because you don't seem to care who is lynched and because you're not telling us what your reads are and not explaining them. In the absence of information, what the hell else am I supposed to think?

And I think you are projecting an awful lot here. Lycan explicitly stated that he thought I was playing mechanical and that was the basis for his SR on me. Postie has also said similar things stating that Postie expected more from me insofar as I am not as forceful or chaotic that RC expects me to play. Llama really has yet to state a reason for why I am Scum, so you are just assuming you know the reason that Llama is SRing me. Who does that leave? Marquis? Marquis is not much more than an OMGUS. She still has yet to address what I asked them to do to get involved in the game. Who else does that leave? IDEK who else is Scum reading me, but a lot of people are strongly TRing me as well. So what do you make of those players? Are they all my Teammates trying to cover for my ass? What's your theory for why People are so polarized on me?

My reasons for voting you don't have anything to do with why others are voting you. Please stop responding to posties reasons or lycans reasons. It DOES help that I am TRing both of those people.

I honestly don't even understand this point. You have played enough mafia to know that there is almost never full consensus on a lynch, regardless of alignment. Indeed, frequently the players who its the hardest to reach consensus on are scum because of buddying.

So I went from the person who is "most trying to sort you" to the person who is "too easy" as scum in your eyes? And that corresponds directly with me pushing you more aggressively?

K.

I don't want to let chilly lurk out from under this wagon, but also I think this needs rope.

Nothing you just posted is a contradiction outside of you blatantly misrepresenting what I'm saying.

(If you are town, we are on the same team, so pls help)
Anyway the reason I woke myself up was I got paranoid about Postie and ISOed her in bed and I can't remember why she is town.
Mostly I just see a good player playing the game. Solid probability of town because game loaded with town but not the obvtown I was hoping.
TSQ is take it to the bank never lynch town though because he got frustrated with me and tried to pull me more actively into the game.(which worked). I will ISO him again sometime to make sure but he and Gamma are town 1 and town 2 and NSG has made fakeable posts but they have also been good; gets exhausting to continue to produce moderate grade town tells like that as scum so I think she can be town 3.

OK, this sounds like you are trying to put more effort into getting your TRs correct than your SRs. What's the Town motivation for that? Have you even bothered to ISO me, your strongest SR?

what's the point of scum "getting town reads right" at all? isn't the literal only motivation for getting a town read being town? this game is mountainous. scum doesn't need town reads.

You are assuming I am SRing Llama for that.

for the love of god stop trying to put words in my mouth. I am saying it is an utterly useless question. unless you are suggesting that llama should change his behavior and stop trying to find town reads, OR that he should stop trying to double check his town reads, what exactly are you trying to accomplish with this post? because it reads like well poisoning to me.

especially because the action is a thing that only townies would be prone to do organically.

Like that vibe becomes even stronger with the conclusion.

It's another reason I think you're likely to be scum.

You keep trying to subtly discredit scum reads on you. And I just mean like, argue and dispute arguments, because theres obviously town motivation to do that. What I mean is you keep trying to weasel around people scum reading you. One example of it is trying to cast all the people scum reading you as not understanding how you play, and saying they were doing so because they didn't like you playing mechanically, when in fact doing so was not the reason I had stated I was scum reading you, nor do I think its a fair characterization of the reason others were.

Similarly, in this post you seem to be suggesting that llama has not done the work, and subtly implying that his reads on you aren't to be trusted. At no point has llama said or even implied he hasn't read your iso, so you throwing it out there like that reads to me as an attempt to discredit his arguments instead of trying to interact with them.

It's disingenuous. You're not making good faith arguments.

Like here is my posts from the conversation that you're saying never happened.

You responded to literally all of these posts. How do you think its unreasonable of me to think you'd know why I was scum reading you?

[Thestatusquo]

sure, but I'm just wondering what is the cause of your markedly different tone between how you're engaging with postie and ces considering they're basically doing the same thing?

What happened to this?

I forgot about this! Thanks!

Hey dunn, whatever happened to this? I remember you engaging with CES and postie completely different, and the answer to this is actually even more relevant now that we've had a postie flip.

Please answer.

Dude this is exactly the sort of thing that I didn't catch when I read the iso. Probably because this question occured in my ISO and not dunns so I didn't see it when I ISOd him.

This point is important. Dunn interacted way differently with postie and ces day one in terms of tone and actions, one of those person (the one he treated nicer) has flipped town.

fuck yeah.

[Thestatusquo]

VOTE: dunnstral

[Thestatusquo]

The thing about Shea and LQ, and I'm speaking to both you here, is that no matter whose fault it is, or even if one of you is scum for whatever reasons, no one will ever go back and look at all this because we'd lose our sanity. If I were to even attempt to sort all that out, besides numbing my mind, by this point I have my own biases and would never be able to get anything from it. Maybe I'm wrong and it could be done, but as of right now I don't think it's worth the attempt. If anyone else feels differently, by all means.

I think it would help LQ if someone besides me pointed out some of his inaccuracies. He's not listening to me. I don't know what else to try at this point when I'm being attacked repeatedly for things that are just on face untrue.

[Thestatusquo]

Dan, you never actually continued this conversation. I wanted to see how you would reply. Basically, in that game I was wrong at times but in the end I was able to come out right. Usually it takes me a few fights and arguments to sort people via interactions with myself, and then that's when I find scum. Now you are asking me if I lead two mislynches in a row. I contributed to the Screenplay mislynch, that is true. It was mostly Llama/Shea/Myself. Eddie, was lead by Postie. I was only the fifth vote at first, and then you came in and posted and I interacted with you, then I voted other suspects in the same day before finally hammering Eddie. Now, if you are concerned about this, why have you not asked Shea the same question?

If you actually cared much you'd link the game. And you're never going to be right when you don't have either of Marquis or Dunnstral in your lynchpool, and have me instead. I still don't believe that in a game where you said "I have scum on lock" could even resemble anything close to this game where you absolutely don't. And you changed your reads lists (for the better since NSG isn't there anymore) again so the whole "It's you!" "I'm right, I've got them on lock this time" is clearly false, and I'm going to bet it'll change again and again. Yes? Yes.

You're right you didn't lead both directly, others were first and in the foreground, but you did cheerlead both; screenplay was always a top-3 scum read and Eddie went 2nd->4th->1st in scum reads. In response to your whataboutism with Shea, unlike you he didn't attempt to base his entire read on me by blaming me for his part in mislynching Eddie.

I was more interested in your response about your mislynch angle rather then needing you to see our game we played. If you were really interested in determining my alignment you'd go to my wiki or your own if you update it. In my last game with Gamma, I have done the exact same thing I did here, over there. He can vouch. Yes, I have changed my reads list. Yes, I'm wrong sometimes. I'm human. So then what is your actual concern? You ask me if I lead them, I say no. I scum read Screenplay and Eddie, yes. As did others, as usual when a person agrees and joins a lynch. The shea point isn't the basis of my read of you.

Like my read is really based on the two things that I laid out on LQ. I just don't think they outweigh the reasons I am town reading him. Apparently you are now town reading his as well, as your lynch pool is now me CES and Dan?

Like why are you scum reading me now because you seem to have agreed with me on the point I am trying to make that LQ is town?

My concerns with you are based on Day 2 and Day 3. Day 2 you stick to Eddie the whole time without really doing much else. It seems like you didn't really care to continue your read on LQ since you had the easy mislynch of Eddie. Day 3 your pool hasn't really changed from Day 2. It's remained static. It doesn't seem like you are trying to help town actually narrow down lynches to be accurate, especially since you said your case on Dunn was based on gut, mostly.

I thought we had a conversation about this yesterday and you agreed with my argument that this assessment of my play was inaccurate. Here is what I said at the time:

Ran, I posted that I got super busy at work. I made sure to set an hour out of my day today specifically to answer your questions. I don't understand where this is coming from.

Is your argument that I'm not interested in your reads? Because I specifically asked you with help in the middle of my read pile, and I took that into account. Responding to your question literally caused me to reevaluate the thought I had on LQ that he wasn't likely to be scum on a town lynch.

I don't agree with you on lycan, though I can reread him, and I do think eddie is scum because as you said yourself the case is good.

But I have been trying to work with you, my work load just went up between day one and now.

I also was very willing to wagon both marquis and dunn with maybe NSG thrown in there too.

Basically I think I've been very wrong about things this game, but I think saying I wasn't willing to reevaluate day 2 is just untrue. I literally reevaluated LQ day 2 because you asked me to.

I have been fairly open with my reads day 2. If you look at my posts from yesterday I think you'll see that I was mostly interested in him because I thought he was mostly likely to be scum. I even cased him. I thought (and still think, for that matter) that the meta on him was good, it just happened to be wrong.

The person this argument you're making most fits is actually postie. Postie was the one most locked into eddie and unwilling to entertain any options. Postie has flipped town.

[Thestatusquo]

Also, I don't think that someones lynch pool remaining mostly static is a scum tell in any way. I think the same people are scum that I thought were scum yesterday. For the same reasons. Not much has changed in that regard imo.

I also don't really even think its true. I went into the day with LQ still on my lynch list and then he came out with that bizarre attack on you gamma and me and I think that absolutely 100% doesn't come from scum, so I took him off my lynch pool. I went into day 2 with davsto in my lynch pool and then reevaluated based off of his play. Earlier today you asked me what I thought of the slot and I reevaluated again because his play today hasn't really been townie at all.

I had dan as null with a potential to lean scum but now that his posting has increased I see a lot of townie things in those posts.

[Thestatusquo]

Also, I don't think that someones lynch pool remaining mostly static is a scum tell in any way. I think the same people are scum that I thought were scum yesterday. For the same reasons. Not much has changed in that regard imo.

This is still an outstanding question for you Ranmaru and one that I've brought up repeatingly too before.

An addendum is that I think it IS a scum tell when someone seems overly concerned about their reads remaining consistent. But this doesn't seem to be the argument here, nor do I think it would be an accurate assessment of my play.

[Thestatusquo]

The case isn't very good but CES' reaction to it borders on atrocious.

[Thestatusquo]

Have you been paying literally attention to LQ this game? Have you been paying literally any attention to ANYTHING in this game besides marquis?

Because I've had to do that like 5 times.

VOTE: ces

L-1.

If we lynch dunn/marquis/ces/NSG we win the game.

[Thestatusquo]

Ran ffs I'm pretty sure you've called 90% of the player list scum with absolute certainty at this point.

Will you get it together?

[Thestatusquo]

I will say shea's vote looks Sus af regardless of how CES flips.

you would say this literally fucking regardless of what I did.

[Thestatusquo]

@North,

I think we push shea/Dunn next game day regardless of flip, correct?

so you think my special scum strategy here, if ces flips scum, is to push my bus my buddy today (ces) while at the same time pushing hard for the lynch of my other buddy (dunn)

seriously what the fuck is wrong with you.

[Thestatusquo]

Quick: Same question. Who is scum on CEStown flip, and CESscum flip. In fact, everyone answer this. Ces scum = Ces, Shea, Quick.

I still don't understand why you think ces flip makes me scum. With LQ of literally all players. That would require you to think scums strategy is just basically turbo bussing which is just bizarre.

[Thestatusquo]

I think if CES flips scum it pretty much clears:
NSG, Lycanfire, davsto.

Lycan is less important because I was already heavily town reading them, but a ces scum flip would cause me to drastically rethink my NSG read because this doesn't feel like bussing on her part.

I think the people who would look bad with a ces scum flip are:
Ranmaru and Dunn.

CES town looks bad for: Me, NSG, Gamma.

[Thestatusquo]

Also the fact that Ran thinks I would be scum with a ces flip when I'm clearly the counter wagon here is bizarre. That's part of what doesn't make much sense with ranmaru if ces flips scum. He looks like he's doing everything he can to save a buddy and counter-wagoning someone who was not even on his scum reads lists before when he was declaring with absolute certainty the scum team was lq dan nsg.

[Thestatusquo]

Same with gamma to be honest here, why would the counter at this point in the game ALSO be on scum if CES is scum. Are you suggesting that scum is trying to save their buddy by voting another buddy?

Please don't ignore the wagon on me.

[Thestatusquo]

My vote on CES, for those who keep saying its "SUS" is because we're at deadline and I thought his reaction to the NSG was horrific. It didn't respond to any of her points. It's main contention was that NSG was simply misunderstanding CES, but I don't think that's fair. It went point by point to make it seem like it was big and full of line by line retorts but it wasn't. It was mainly just repeating the same thing over and over and again and accusing NSG of being disingenuous when I really didn't think she was.

Also, anyone who is saying I had a firm town read on him before is DELIBERATELY mistating what I have said before.

I've had him as null town, because of meta, but that meta does not include responses like this. That's not ces town play, and we're at deadline.

If there were a viable wagon on Dunn I would join it, but its not there.

[Thestatusquo]

I think if CES flips scum it pretty much clears:
NSG, Lycanfire, davsto.

Lycan is less important because I was already heavily town reading them, but a ces scum flip would cause me to drastically rethink my NSG read because this doesn't feel like bussing on her part.

I think the people who would look bad with a ces scum flip are:
Ranmaru and Dunn.

CES town looks bad for: Me, NSG, Gamma.

Why does CES!town look bad for NSG? Also Ran being scum with CES is off the table for me pretty much.

Because NSG was the third vote on the wagon, mostly. If ces was the chosen misslynch for scum today thats exactly where I would expect her to be.

Actually now that I think about it CES town also looks really bad for Marquis, because he's the wagon that was on the block before that and NSGs big case essentially took him off the table. If CES is town NSG/Marquis could easily be a scum team.

Why don't you think ran can be scum with ces?

[Thestatusquo]

Like he's clearly doing EVERYthing in his power to stop this wagon and putting votes every place he can possibly think of, imploring town to join him. Town he was shading earlier in the day with the same level of certainty he's now shading me.

I had him as a high town read but his play today has not been town at all.

Today he has declared that the following people are all scum:
Me
You
ActionDan
Marquis
Dunn
LQ
CES

He might have called NSG scum too. I'm not remembering.

He also voted ces at the beginning of the wagon and then hopped off as it began to gain steam and then started attacking the people on it.

Like its textbook how I would expect a buddy to interact. Distancing, then trying to stop the wagon, but never outright defending ces.

[Thestatusquo]

CES reacted validly and in full? Can you talk about that? I think thats exactly what I'm saying. He reacted with a LOT of stuff, but I felt like all of that stuff was mostly nonsense.

Can you tell me what about it you liked?

[Thestatusquo]

Because I don't think coasting off the bus works, and we're getting to the point in the game where I think scum are less likely to bus. 3 mislynches means they're very close to a win. 2 plus 1 scum means they're 1 lynch away from a loss.

It's also not a play he could make if he felt like the third on their team was in danger of being lynched. So if the scum team is Dunn/Ran/Ces he would have to go the mat to save CES because there's no way that Dunn is living to end game.

Coincidentally, if ces flips scum I think thats exactly who the scum team is.

[Thestatusquo]

It was mainly just repeating the same thing over and over and again and accusing NSG of being disingenuous when I really didn't think she was.

I think I repeat myself twice, both at relevant points. The vast majority of my reply posts is providing context and explaining where I was coming from. This is not in any way accurate.

I dont mean you're literally repeating yourself word for word, I mean that your defenses as far as I can tell basically boil down to "NSG is removing context" when I don't think she was and I don't think the removed context was relevant and "you are misunderstanding."

Obviously theres a little more to it than that, but your defense basically hinges on her taking you out of context when I don't think she was and that she was misunderstanding you when I don't think she was.

[Thestatusquo]

CES reacted validly and in full? Can you talk about that? I think thats exactly what I'm saying. He reacted with a LOT of stuff, but I felt like all of that stuff was mostly nonsense.

Can you tell me what about it you liked?

It's that it doesn't feel like a desperate recovery attempt and more like an actual explanation of what the situation is and what is wrong with the case.

Leaving aside that I disagree and think its fairly desperate, isn't this what you would expect a scum and town player to do?

It seems pretty NAI at best to me.

[Thestatusquo]

team is convinced I'm a goner tonight

I disagree, I am trying to win this for town and lynch scum before I am night killed.

No chance, no way, this scene won't play; I bet you know deep inside, it'll be NSG or even Davsto! More than a prediction, it's my absolute conviction
You'll keep on mislynching, without ever once flinching, though, to cure your affliction: lynch Dunn with my benediction!

Why don't you think the team is Dunn/CES/Ran.

I think the team is Dunn Ran CES.

[Thestatusquo]

I hate to say this because it means I was wrong, but I think the shea wagon is a Scum driven wagon.

*falls out of chair in absolute god damned shock*

[Thestatusquo]

I hate to say this because it means I was wrong, but I think the shea wagon is a Scum driven wagon.

I predicted you'd change your stance once you get the opportunity to join a Shea wagon. Who is scum on a CEStown flip and CESscum flip?

The wagon is way too easy. I brought up point after point before and people invalidated my points on shea. Why all the sudden this quick wagon on shea?

Hint its because I'm town and ces is scum.

[Thestatusquo]

Shea: Can you explain why you think CES's reaction to NSG's case was nonsense and makes him scum to you?

Literally already did this in the last few pages.

[Thestatusquo]

Shea: Can you link it, i'm at work.

My vote on CES, for those who keep saying its "SUS" is because we're at deadline and I thought his reaction to the NSG was horrific. It didn't respond to any of her points. It's main contention was that NSG was simply misunderstanding CES, but I don't think that's fair. It went point by point to make it seem like it was big and full of line by line retorts but it wasn't. It was mainly just repeating the same thing over and over and again and accusing NSG of being disingenuous when I really didn't think she was.

Also, anyone who is saying I had a firm town read on him before is DELIBERATELY mistating what I have said before.

I've had him as null town, because of meta, but that meta does not include responses like this. That's not ces town play, and we're at deadline.

If there were a viable wagon on Dunn I would join it, but its not there.

[Thestatusquo]

Like a summary is: When ces town posts content he posts content. He doesn't pad posts for length.

If town CES thought that NSG was actually misunderstanding and misrepping him and taking him out of context, he would make a post, and he would say exactly that. He would say this applies to many different parts of your case.

He wouldn't go line by line finding new and inventive ways to say what is essentially the same point. Thats Scum Ces trying to make his response seem longer and more weighty and more authoritative.

I also really don't like his response to me, where he says "I literally only repeated myself once." because I think that is a drastic misunderstanding of my point. So bad that it seems to be intentional. Theres no way that CES thought my argument was that he was literally saying the same words over and over again when he wasn't doing that. If he did, I'll eat my hat. He attacked that straw man full on though.

[Thestatusquo]

I don't want to try to flash wagon someone at the last second and risk a NL.

Ran and I are in full agreement that it should be me or CES today.

[Thestatusquo]

Keep in mind we have less than a day til DL.

[Thestatusquo]

Yes, I am one of them.

What I'm worried about is all of them checking the thread in the next 20 hours and agreeing to vote there.

[Thestatusquo]

btw NSG is town cuz team comp

a) This is against the rules.

and b) I don't even think its true.

[Thestatusquo]

Yes that was also against the rules.

I dont know why "don't talk about ongoing games" is difficult, but apparently it is.

[Thestatusquo]

It's not the reevaluation that's the problem, its the sudden switch on a dime from calling 1 group of people confirmed scum to ten seconds later calling a different group of people confirmed scum and asking the group of people you were calling confirmed scum 10 minutes prior to work with you to lynch your new group of confirmed scum.

Also, I hope you're happy. The end of this day has caused me to reevaluate a lot.

[Thestatusquo]

can we not have last minute shitty compromise lynches mkay (that's especially @Ran who was even scumreading CES earlier but has the nerve to ask me to compromise on LQ or Shea like,, the fuck? Why would I ever compromise on a lynch when the person I scumread most is at L-1??? Fuckin nuts)

This real difficulty in getting a hammer on CES despite less than 24 hours left is as frustrating as it is fishy

Town post.

yup. Davsto pings me as town every time he posts.

I wish he would post more.

I had him and dan as very similar players who both posted townie things but didn't post with enough frequency to look like they actually cared about the direction of the town.

ActionDan has started being louder in response to that post and I wish davsto would too.

[Thestatusquo]

Ran asked for what I'd read people if CES flips scum or town? Idk why I can't just leave this until tomorrow (because I don't want to seem like I'm extrapolating further CES-scumread from other players' behaviour - I'm not, this is merely how you can expect me to feel tomorrow upon CES scum or town flip) but I suppose I should

CES flips scum (more detail here because obviously I've given it more thought) - Ran scum, it feels like Ran gave the CES an obligatory amount of effort and a vote then hopped off once it gained momentum and is now campaigning and virtually begging hard for unvotes to kill the momentum. Again, I'm not going to extrapolate and I'm not saying today that CES is scum because of this behaviour by Ran, because I know if I don't clarify this someone will accuse me of it. I'm not sure who the third scum would be under this situation. NSG and Marquis town likely for clear reasons, and though I wouldn't totally rule out bussing on Marquis that'd be a theory I wouldn't consider chasing up unless Marquis came across badly.

CES flips town - Ran probably town, the above description does not feel like scum-defending-town for towncred. I'd probably begrudgingly listen to him and look deeper into Marquis being scum, but I'd hardly put it as solid unless I found evidence for myself. I have other people I'd consider for scum but it's not really an associative in relation to CES as much as they are just because one person I've scumread turned out town so there's more scum among my townreads, if that makes sense.

Third scum would be dunn. If there's a bus vote on the CES wagon its dunns.

[Thestatusquo]

Wait I just checked and Dunn didn't vote CES.

I am apparently. crazy. Scratch everything I said about that.

[Thestatusquo]

I could have swore I remembered him voting CES but it looks like I was just remembering his vote on me.

[Thestatusquo]

My vote on CES, for those who keep saying its "SUS" is because we're at deadline

Yeah, this does make sense.

There was other reasoning there too, obviously.

I'm not just going to hop on, say, a ActionDan wagon just because we're at deadline. But it does make my threshold lower.