Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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How is it confbiased if I wasn't even pushing it until recently? I have been flip flopping on my reads trying to re-evaluate, but then my gut tells me 'No this is not scum' and I go in this direction. I think I understand why you have a problem with CES, and I think you are being misguided with your push on him. You are so confbiased by your read on CES you think his main push is a mislynch.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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To be fair it seemed likely that Screenplay was salvaging a scumslot upon switching in. Otherwise, T-chill would have picked up the slack himself instead of lurking out. That's on T-chill. (Eddie too) It's bad play to lurk out as town.In post 2526, northsidegal wrote:
don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him. even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.In post 2475, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
I acknowledge that you've mistakenly claimed I had a town read on Tchill before in order to paint my hammer in a scummy light; that was part of it.In post 2353, northsidegal wrote:i've given reasons in the past for why i think you're scum. i also get the feeling from the way you're framing things here that marquis is the scumteam's designated mislynch (this combined with dunnstral's later vote).
i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you. especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.
VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum
You say you haven't seen any gamesolving or scumhunting from CES. Technically, he is scumhunting, and he is pushing for Marquis. Gamesolving, he isn't doing as much as I am, but that is his playstyle. This may be your first time playing with him, but he typically plays in a concise manner. I think Llamarble said that usually if he's town, he's pretty accurate. I think I have a good understanding of the game, and I feel Marquis does too. That's why Marquis knows how to pop in and seem town. I don't understand why you have had a null-town read on him all game though. I think you are also being unfair to CES. He asks you to look at Marquis's meta and you say you didn't look into it. #584 So, have you looked into that yet? Right now the person who needs to re-evaluate is you.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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CES's #122 looks like a buddy talking to another buddy, about a wagon he hasn't actually commented on yet. Action Dan has a good point on CES: #526 He doesn't think CES had good reason to scumread him before he was wagonned, nor had he stated that reasoning before. He stated this: #349 asking Llama why he considers Marquis the towniest, which comes off as slightly forced. #665 and #728 are votes against one confirmed town, and a high town read. His reads on Lycan and Shea in his #1596 are lazy. If he says he is having trouble finding scum, why does he cop out when it comes to these two? I agree that his #1597 comes off as non-passionate. #2279 I don't like because he doesn't actually explain his actions when NSG's team mate gave a good point. Seemed he was more intend on discrediting NSG there instead of having her understand his play. He doesn't seem to have a good explanation for why he went about it like that: #2334
In general, he doesn't seem passionate in his pushes, nor does he actually push the Marquis wagon as hard. He says this is due to being busy. His read on Shea is lazy, and shows he isn't really trying to sort him, especially when he needs to re-evaluate his reads. I do agree with NSG that his Eddie vote was bad. Some of his early posts to LQ seem awkward. Lately CES has been seeming townie but these small scumtells are what made me reconsider. Marquis really seemed like scum here by the way he was playing and it gave CES enough fuel for me to be convinced.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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CES Scum motivation: Argue with a buddy to interact with him about a scum read [CES] has yet to speak about. Hammer two town he isn't passionate in to progress scum win condition. Discredit NSG rather then explain himself to her to taint her as scum (since there is some idea of her being scum from Reck and myself). Uses the excuse of sheeping Llama to avoid sorting Shea, his scum mate.
CES Town motivation: Only town motivation I can find is him genuinely being busy. It would be understandable if he tried to reconsider his read on Shea later on, but he doesn't. His votes on town (Postie, Gamma) would make sense if he was also trying to consider his other reads (Shea, Lycan) yet he doesn't, so it doesn't line up to me.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Shea: Starts out voting NSG in his #82 because he doesn't like that she used wifom, and that she was voting in a way that he felt didn't progress RVS. Yet, a page before, Lycanfire votes Shea in his #70, without any reasoning at all. Shea never asks or comments on Lycan's post here. In his #440 Mentions Tchill and LQ and a pool of players who might be scum with them, but doesn't mention Lycanfire. He doesn't really seem to try to sort Lycanfire, he just townbins him. I still think this is a concerning play from Shea: #435. He interrupts his push on Lycan and doesn't actually comment. He states in his defense #1673 that he just thought it was garbage and felt no need to defend Lycan to his scumread. Yet he hasn't really done much with Quick after reading him as town. During Day 2, I was pushing Quick again but he was not really pushing much, he just commented a bit when I was talking about his progression. Doesn't feel like he had passion for LQ as scum during Day 2, and was content with sitting on Eddie from the beginning. Him wanting to look into Dunn doesn't really feel like he's trying that hard to find mafia, and Lycan did make the point that [Eddie and Dunn are both lynchbait]. (Note if he has ever criticized Shea for pushing Dunn) I do like that he's attempting to work with me more after my original concerns, but still feel he is scum. I don't think his read on Lycan is convincing, and don't understand why he has Dunn as scummier than NSG. NSG feels scummier than Dunn and I feel Shea is running out of options. (Although I think NSG is town, just that she seems like scum from her recent play) #2083 In general, Shea posts reads lists but doesn't really give reasoning along with them, which doesn't help me see why he feels a certain way. Scum.
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---In post 841, Thestatusquo wrote:@Ran I would happily kill either LQ or Tchill. Right now there is a wagon on one of them and not on the other. I have pretty high confidence in my scum reads on both of them, so I don't see why it makes sense for me to switch over to LQ at this time unless the wagon moved over there for some reason independent of me.
He says this but his actions don't show this, especially on Day 2 when he just sits on Eddie. Today, he had started a counter wagon on Dunn, without being able to elaborate on why: #2580. In his #2439 he votes LQ instead of voting Dan with me, when I tell him to. It shows he was interested in voting LQ (since that interaction was staged) over voting likely scum in his pov (as he stated to me in #2393. Now, you ask me, why do LQ and Shea interact like that when Marquis is being wagoned? Would Marquis not be the buddy they are trying to save? It would seem that's what they'd want us to think. Yet Shea has been defending the slot quite a bit, and LQ has been poking everywhere about it (like myself when I gave a null town read of him). Yet they are doing that as a red herring. It's more telling to see this: #1734. When I pushed for Shea, LQ was quiet, and voting for me.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Quick: My read changed due to this: 2380, this: #2410, and this: #2487. This too: #2629. You vote your consistent town read, for pressure. It's another weird vote like your vote on myself in Day 2. The next link is a very forced reaction. The third is you lying about Shea not answering to you, which lines up with you being obtuse as scum to rile him up, you don't care to sort him. The last is you voting Marquis without giving a conclusion or talking to me about it. You just vote him, even though he's null to you and you are voting on policy. Your reads change at the drop of a hat, and your push on me and Shea is obtuse on purpose to get the reaction from others that you are town.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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I am at work. Right now, Marquis why did your read on Quick change, and what is the reasoning for it now? What is your read of Shea? How do you feel about the Shea and Quick votes on you?
CES, talk to me about Quick. Also please give me two town games of yours and two scum games. Will respond to you as well when I get home.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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That's why I asked them. Tell me what you think of this: #2380, and those pages. Tell me what you thought of LQ v Shea there.In post 2702, Marquis wrote:For the record only because I don't think I've elaborated on this anyway-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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They change by my feeling and by your actions, not reads. You stating I am scum reading you for not liking your read is an obvious misrepresentation. Your tone when addressing me here is much different then: #2442 or this: #2666. It makes me wonder why you take on that tone when I'm bringing up a concern. You bring up 'why you do things as town' yet you still have not answered my #1790. Compare the scum motivation and town motivation and explain why you think I don't have town motivation for what I'm doing, and then I'll explain to you the town motivation. I also am wondering why you didn't respond to my #2350. I'm fine with your Shea read. If you presented a serious case like you are doing so in your 2689, I'd look into it. I didn't get your push in those pages when I voted you, it seemed like a distraction rather then a push to wagon Shea. Also another thing to note that is you always omgus me. Why do you always omgus me?In post 2689, LicketyQuickety wrote:I am starting to think you are Scum actually. Reason being is that your read(s) (at least on me) seem to come from something based on my stances and change on a whim, rather than any deductive thought. Regardless of if you can case me (or others for that matter) is really of no consequence. What I am looking at is how your reads are almost by definition changing based on the reads of others without looking at the reasoning behind those reads from those players. I don't see a Town motivation for this considering it occupies manipulation as opposed to an unbiased presentation.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Would you say Marquis is a competent player? I don't see how comparing a different player to Marquis is really going to sell me on your read on Marquis. Have you looked into Marquis's meta? Now I have looked at your games (especially your town games), I think it is different. Can you explain why that is? Have you thought about my #2352, what do you think about it? Also, why do you think Llama was killed? In reference to your Shea read, what does him being very 'Sheaeay' mean and why does it make you at ease with sheeping Llama? What do you think of Shea's interactions with LQ?In post 2693, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:Because Ranmaru is obvtown for one. I think it's a pattern you see often with inactive but relatively competent scum - they try to fill their few posts with attempts to look town, so Marquisscum would absolutely do the classic vote against the grain here (Marquistown could also do it, sure, but it's not exactly likely.)-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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I think these are good posts to look at again while things are slow:
In post 875, Llamarble wrote:In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.
Scum are going to NK TSQ, Me and / or Postie, NSG / Ran
That's 5 lynches; we get 6. If we haven't won the game with those 5, the people still alive at that point can reevaluate.
If somehow those 5 players are all town, then well played scum. Team would have to be like Marquis Postie NSG or something.
In fairness, NSG scum is more plausible than I was thinking; her ISO is essentially just some reads and reasons.
NSG mostly works on Eddie and CES teams and such though.
The lylo that would leave is:
Marquis
Dunnstral
Lycan
Davsto
Gamma
Give whoever you lynch the day before lylo (CES if he makes it that far) the right to pick the lylo lynch if they flip town. Otherwise elect somebody to control all the lylo votes.
Town MUST all 3 get it right, if game goes to lylo, so they need some preexisting mechanism to agree and stack their votes or else scum have a 90% chance of winning in 2/3 lylo.
And once again, do not assume someone who lacks a good possible buddy must be town. I was universally scumread in Whiteflag 1 and won as scum because Mith distanced from me successfully and it looked like nobody could be my partner.
I can see LQ flipping town. I can see AD flipping town, maybe. I can see Tchill flipping town if all the scum are on the gamma wagon.
CES I can't really see flipping town here, but I'm also too lazy and not reliable enough at reading him to try to lynch him D1. If alive in lylo, all votes go on him please.
Eddie is probably where my next big timechunk of reading should go.In post 882, Llamarble wrote:Put simply I want to set things up D1 to ensure a town win, so I am thinking a few moves ahead. I don't have a very long shelf life as town.
Your post essentially says "I find it annoying that you're thinking far ahead." Which offers even less value than my post
Lynch math - 15 -> 13 -> 11 -> 9 -> 7 -> 5 = 5 lynches; if we've hit scum with those 5 we get an additional lynch.In post 886, Llamarble wrote:I think I'm voting town.
VOTE: Tchill
Just do Tchill, when it flips red do CES.
Do AD or maybe LQ if game isn't over by then.
Based on what?
Nightkills go on people who are good at identifying scum and are never going to get lynched.
TSQ is playing well and obviously never getting lynched. If he's scum we'll just have to lynch his buddies.
I'm never getting lynched because I'm town, though if scum want to leave me alive to lylo, letting a player with my history of lynch control and lynch accuracy alive through 5 days, and I fail to win it by then, I will accept my own autolynch in lylo because I'll deserve it.
NSG and Ran and Postie are universal or near universal townreads.
Lynches go to people who are not obvtown or people who are scummy.
There are decent to very good reasons not to lynch Gamma Dunn Lycan Davsto and Marquis, but they aren't universal townreads either so they prob won't eat nightkills.
LQ Eddie Tchill CES AD are all widely scumread players (to varying degrees), for good reason. It's not hard to have a decent guess of where things are going.
Am I getting ahead of myself, sure. Am I really helping by posting this, maybe? I tend to just let my thoughts out in the thread a lot. It can be a little spammy sometimes unfortunately but I don't think there are many players who get as cosmically obvtown as I do so it's worth it to me.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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This one too:
In post 930, Llamarble wrote:CES is rarely particularly townie looking unless he lynches scum.
He's pretty good at not getting lynched though; dangerous scum player.
Often as town he will do enough dmg or look threatening enough to get himself NKed.
My preferred solution is to let him play a few game days but if town isn't winning before lylo he is probably scum.
I generally advocate lynching the player who had no business still being alive in lylo.
AD who is the third scum with TChill and CES if not you? Marquis maybe? He isn't particularly town I suppose.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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