White Flag - TM2020

[Espeonage]

Hey I'm alive. Straight up unhappy to be in this game. Will give some effort tonight.

[Espeonage]

So just skimming this page alone. idgaf if it's prevalent in other games, but here, I don't want to see any of this attacking with x reason because y teammate said so. It removes accountability, the teammate is able to read from a neutral perspective, and therefore muddies the entirety of the game.

Bounce ideas of them sure, but play your game, don't be a conduit for someone to just play four games.

Vote: Auro

[Espeonage]

I posted looking at the previous page. Realised I hadn't refreshed. Page 10

[Espeonage]

@everyone, why did everyone choose this game?

Didn't was meant to be in Large Theme. Someone on my blacklist was in there so I didn't get put there and our allocations were shuffled and now I'm in one of my least favourite setups commonly played.

[Espeonage]

So I've found two scum which is enough to win the game. Auro and Dunn are both scum kthxbi

[Espeonage]

Like yeah true, but it's a horrible setup.

Lets take mountainous and make it easier for scum by adding an exploitable mechanic.

[Espeonage]

So I've found two scum which is enough to win the game. Auro and Dunn are both scum kthxbi

ice cold take

Which impacts its validity how?

[Espeonage]

Questions are framed to find a way out of suspicion rather than getting a level of understanding which is a scum mindset v town mindset thing.

[Espeonage]

Questions

are framed to find a way out of suspicion rather than getting a level of understanding

which is a scum mindset v town mindset thing.

[Espeonage]

Questions are framed to find a way out of suspicion rather than getting a level of understanding which is a scum mindset v town mindset thing.

Example of such question framing?

[Espeonage]

uhhh... like that.

Like, town need to not lynch town too. And majority of players are town. So chances are if someone suspects you, you could be working better with them. So you try and get in to their head to understand why they are thinking the way they are thinking.

So you want to lynch Gobble?
Can you help me see town Cephrir?

Like this is good.

My team is supporting me on the Auro suspicion

More details on why your teammates suspect me, pl0x?

This is really bad.

Do you see the difference. One is you working with someone to get in to their head to understand what they are thinking and most importantly why. The second is getting the blueprint on how to appear more town.

[Espeonage]

Welp looks like it's going to be a fun play in to the game phase for me.

[Espeonage]

Oh and seeing as it's been a talking point, none of my team have read any of this game.

[Espeonage]

It is entirely anecdotal but my entire experience with team mafia is that people will help a bit and some people are more likely to than others, but the time I won most of my teammates played ok to well and I got carried like fuck and had about 5 posts the entire game and won.

So any argument that has basis in x team would do y bc this is team mafia is inherently flawed and will get you nowhere. Better to drop that entire line of thinking and take everything at face value.

[Espeonage]

I don't know, independent of her meta tell for being scum, the fact that she left her vote on wgeurts despite naming him as one of her THREE town reads seems pretty bad coming from the Paragon.

Burden of proficiency is bad and why a lot of great players leave the site and burn out. Y'all can revisit this later as anecdotal evidence but I am gonna need more than logical fallacies to join wagons for the sake of it.

[Espeonage]

To provide actual works to answer Dunn's question.

The point I am making is that there is a right way to ask about suspicion on yourself, and just asking and getting ammo on how to fix it and be town read is not the way to do it. That is why I am scum reading Auro. All of the mentality stuff I am reading in Auro's posts reads to me as working out how to be town read not how to convince others of their own reads to work with others. This isn't even town ego either which I would admit is probably townie despite being a shithouse way to play the game that I am a hypocrite for calling out.

The entirety of my reasoning is Auro cares more about being town read than finding scum.

[Espeonage]

ebwop: words

[Espeonage]

I could be getting completely swindled but I dislike the people on FFs wagons and am happy with the wagon I am on.

It seems really super fkn convenient if that's the scum team which means at least one of them is very likely reading this game completely differently to me.

I will say that FF's catch up was eh at best, lots of IIoA inspires not huge confidence.

[Espeonage]

All of the mentality stuff I am reading in Auro's posts reads to me as working out how to be town read not how to convince others of their own reads to work with others

So after more than one person asked you to look at my town games where my posts come off exactly like this, and my calling your allegation of "not working with anyone" blatantly false... You justify your vote on me because wagon composition?

Okay.

I have not looked at a single one of your games and I never will. If you run your mouth with self meta you gonna end up being another mod kill to add to the pile.

[Espeonage]

I've played with them both before as well, so what? See above.

[Espeonage]

I've played with them both before as well, so what? See above.

So based on their experience with me (which you lack) they don't think I'm the best vote for reasons you allege.

They must be crazy, amirite?

I think they're wrong. Which everyone is most of the time.

And if you had read any of my games you would know that I have advocated strongly that if someone says they have self meta showing they are town and flip town it should be reflipped as they have proven trust tell posthumously.

Like I have had this stance for years and tried many many times to powerlynch people on principle.

Like the longer you go down a "this is my town meta" line without being mod killed the bigger and bigger chance that you are in fact scum by virtue of not being punished.

[Espeonage]

Ceph, be the change you want to see int he world.

[Espeonage]

I don't care! If he doesn't use meta, that's his prerogative.

Let's try to figure where we disagree.

1. Esp said I'm scum for a reason X.
2. A cursory glance at my town games would show X in those games.
3. Dunn also says I do X as town.
4. Therefore, scumreading me for X is not valid.
5. Therefore, Esp should re-assess.

(I don't think X is scummy by itself anyway, but that's a different issue)

Can you tell me which point you disagree me with on?

Just to butt in, I agree with points 1, and 3. I'll take face value on 2. But 4 and 5 aren't the natural conclusions.

[Espeonage]

Just to butt in, I agree with points 1, and 3. I'll take face value on 2. But 4 and 5 aren't the natural conclusions.

Okay. If X is an exact behaviour, then 4 is a direct conclusion from 2.
If 4 isn't the natural conclusion, there must be

some

qualitative difference between X in town games and X here.
Can you have a look and explain?

Both of those statements are categorically false.

If you do X as town and people have observed this there is even more equity for you to do X as scum. You obviously do it as town, you could take advantage of doing it as scum, it's null.

However, I have specifically stated that my issue with you isn't what you are doing, but how you are doing it. I have talked about your mentality behind the base action and the words and tone you use. THAT is the difference why I think you are scum.

[Espeonage]

I agree with Ceph that you are caring way too much about the parts of the whole rather than the whole.

I agree with you that this is worth talking about, if only because it has made me more confident in my read on you.

[Espeonage]

Dann, I was the original gentleman 2.

[Espeonage]

If you do X as town and people have observed this there is even more equity for you to do X as scum. You obviously do it as town, you could take advantage of doing it as scum, it's null.

However, I have specifically stated that my issue with you isn't what you are doing, but how you are doing it. I have talked about your mentality behind the base action and the words and tone you use. THAT is the difference why I think you are scum.

Yes, I'm saying it's

null

, and therefore not a reason to scumread me.

I'm claiming that you would get the same general impression about my words/tone from other town games. The accusation that I "am trying to form a blueprint to get out of being scumread" is a distinct enough behaviour to glean from other games. My focus on defending against scumreads on me is also something you can spot very easily from a skim.
I've explained my mentality behind such behaviour as well -

do you believe you can see little reason for town!Auro to be posting in such a way?

Spoiler: For reference

Questions

are framed to find a way out of suspicion rather than getting a level of understanding

which is a scum mindset v town mindset thing.

uhhh... like that.

Like, town need to not lynch town too. And majority of players are town. So chances are if someone suspects you, you could be working better with them. So you try and get in to their head to understand why they are thinking the way they are thinking.

So you want to lynch Gobble?
Can you help me see town Cephrir?

Like this is good.

My team is supporting me on the Auro suspicion

More details on why your teammates suspect me, pl0x?

This is really bad.

Do you see the difference. One is you working with someone to get in to their head to understand what they are thinking and most importantly why. The second is getting the blueprint on how to appear more town.

I agree with Ceph that you are caring way too much about the parts of the whole rather than the whole.
I agree with you that this is worth talking about, if only because it has made me more confident in my read on you.

The parts form the whole. Is there something you think I'm ignoring/not talking enough about?

@Bolded: Yes

[Espeonage]

Dann, I was the original gentleman 2.

Do we have all 3 people who held Gent 2s slot in this game?

I fucking hope not.

[Espeonage]

Bc someone came in after me, was a complete dick to people who don't deserve it, and was an all around arsehole.

Dunno who it was during that period though.

[Espeonage]

I stfg if someone really decides to let RC run multiple games at once I will destroy everything everyone loves.

[Espeonage]

Bc someone came in after me, was a complete dick to people who don't deserve it, and was an all around arsehole.

Dunno who it was during that period though.

You talking about the guy who finished the game and won it for town?

no

[Espeonage]

If it helps, I think I meant to say Dann if I said Dunn. And also I forget why it was so there's that.

[Espeonage]

Fuck I lost a huge post.

Basically I had this big thing that there's probably 1 and maybe 2 scum in the lurkers because of wagon reasons and it ended in me asking for cliff notes on the lurkers from Hopkirk and Auro and my mirroring some points Ceph made.

[Espeonage]

Oh, I do have a little thingy that someone needs to remind me of later that I'm wary of from Ceph.

[Espeonage]

Hey all, cozy weekend, will be back soon.

[Espeonage]

I am against Lynching NSG on principle of lurkers being terrible day 1 lynches.

Hop seems p town recently. Kitty has some interesting framing from the skimming I did (sorry the posts are dense).

Not too sure there.

I read all the bits I missed over the weekend. Something doesn't sit well with me from Dann and I can't pinpoint it. I physically cringed at the entire back and forth that happened with telling team members role pms. If I hadn't told my team not to give two shits about this game bc I was town and feeling happy about my ability to win the game with relative ease I probably wouldn't have told my team what my role was either.

I am trying to work out if Auro pressure dropped off bc Auro shut up and town lost interest, or because it was scum pushed. Solving that would make me happy.

[Espeonage]

It means I have gut issues with Kitty but can't parse why yet.

bc it was proxy speaking. Play your own game.

On the NSG thing. This is a mountainous game. We ONLY have day play. Wasting the day 1 Lynch on a zero information wagon gives all the tempo to scum to dictate what voices they want being loud bc no one is implicated or soft cleared by an NSG Lynch. It is far far more important to Lynch someone who has concrete interactions other people or poignant lack of interactions with other people. NSG gives us nothing no matter what way she flips.

[Espeonage]

bc it was proxy speaking. Play your own game.

eh sorry if you take issue with this but my whole team are very strong town players and I'm going to use that to my fullest extent

Knowing your team and knowing your team knows me, it should come as no surprise to them that I don't give two shits what they say if they aren't playing. Bc they aren't the slot and will objectively have an easier time giving real thoughts that aren't NAI. So I would appreciate if you can at least make it clear what you think independently of what they say.

[Espeonage]

like that sounds nice but the reality is this is a much better wagon then any of our previous have been

also "we can't lynch lurkers" does not work in a game where have the player list has under 30 posts

If you had to lynch someone other than Auro, who would it be?

I could compromise on most of the playerlist.

PEDIT: Time.

[Espeonage]

I'm not saying you haven't. I just don't want a bad precent being set day 1.

[Espeonage]

Go ask worst if he thinks I think I'm stronger than everyone on your team. That should give you your answer.

[Espeonage]

If you're scum they actively make the game harder for us.

[Espeonage]

Like I'm already shitted off by being in this game, bc its the worst setup with the weakest playerlist. I don't want other rogue elements coming in and obfuscating the entire thing when it SHOULD be simple enough to just solve the game and be done with the entire thing by the end of the week.

That said, it seems like people are more interested in protecting their scum games by playing blatantly anti town and claiming it's their town meta. So idek any more.

[Espeonage]

if I'm scum they are scum thoughts and wouldn't be real thoughts, or would be AI

if you're going with the "I didn't tell them my role PM theory" then they are still town thoughts!

The problem is that if you are scum what stops you from taking their thoughts and just presenting them as town own. And even if they know you are scum, they have enough brains to put reads together that can make some kind of objective sense to allow you to present in a townie way.

That is my concern.

[Espeonage]

taking a step back from all this team strategy talk stuff since it seems to be a difference in philosophy

Are you scum reading me? Are you unsure and have doubts? If so why and where are those doubts placed

I think you are too strong a player to be so wrong without questioning why others aren't agreeing with you. So I'm worried that is because you are scum. That said, were I right on Auro your scum equity goes down.

So I have misgivings but they should iron out. If I am wrong on Auro I think he's being pocketed by potentially you though. I feel like sorting Auro clears up a lot about the game given how little vote count moment has happened. So don't worry, I'll get a read on you later. You and Dunn occupy a lot fo the same space in my head as well which is an issue int he short term.

[Espeonage]

You're a dramatic grouch Espeon not sure I buy it. You remind me of Reck in TM last year tho and he was town.
A push on someone other than Auro might help you solve seeing as there are more than 1 scum on a scumteam. Can you be more specific than "most of the playerlist"

I have voiced misgivings about a lot of slots and talked about potentially being wrong on Auro and what that might mean for the game state.

And sure. I would be down to Lynch of Auro, Dunn, Dann, Ceph, and Kitty. Possibly more depending on how the wagon forms and what happens around that.

I really resent being compared to Reck but I get it. I've developed an ego so I guess it makes sense.

[Espeonage]

I see the opposite as true if Auro flips scum in that it implicates Dann and if he's town that implicates Espeon.

What advantage would Dann have in pocketing Auro?

Auro is argumentative and vocal. Both strong qualities in someone town reading you.

My breakdown is that I doubt the entire scum team would jump on to a wagon all together, which is why I would not expect a prominent three person wagon to contain more than 1 or 2 scum.

[Espeonage]

Everyone except you Auro and Dunn.

However that comes with the caveat that I think two of them are probably town. Which means gut says that Kitty and a lurker are probably scum with one of you three.

[Espeonage]

Should also be noted that I reckon NSG is more likely to be town in my book than most of the other lurkers.

[Espeonage]

Oh yeah I'd Lynch ff too.

[Espeonage]

Ok cool, if there actually any reason why NSG has higher scum equity than other people?

[Espeonage]

That people who are defending Auro are going yeah ok its anti town, but it's also what he does so he's town.

[Espeonage]

Esp I am really surprised by you treating NSG like she's a run of the mill lurker while you're going so heavy handed on what you think the

right way

to play team mafia is (which seems to be pretty similar to what you think is the right way to play normal mafia).

Spoiler:

dann, what exactly do you think my plan is as scum here? you know that i actually CAN play scum, right? i've endgamed as scum before in white flag (i'm CultOfAthena). i have the capability to put words to paper as scum, especially if it were team mafia, and especially with RC on my team. (personally i would say that the reason i say less as scum in general is more due to lack of interest rather than lack of ability, but that's neither here nor there)

this game is just as important to my team as the others, and that's exactly why we're going with this strategy. i would never be doing this if i wasn't confident in my ability to show that i'm town when the time comes.

voting me is a mistake and won't make me play differently. with the time left in the day and my focus on other games if i switched now then i likely wouldn't get an optimal lynch but i would still paint a target on my back.

i apologize if this is frustrating, but my team unanimously agrees that it's best for me to spend my time elsewhere. if i don't get nightkilled this game will be my first priority tomorrow.

Scum or not, she's basically banking on her paragon reputation to prod dodge to delay her slot contributing anything substantive until d2, and pretending that this is pro town. For the purpose of "priorit[izing]" Other Things for her team. Besides being disrespectful, I find it pro-scum and scummy because positioning herself as a "No info kill" is more important to her than doing anything besides MAKING WIFOM SELF-META CASES or MOVING HER RVS VOTE ONTO THE SCUMREAD SHE CLAIMED TO HAVE. As scum she is forced to walk an awkward line in this player list of it making sense for her to live a while, without being scummy enough to lynch. In my mind that is better reason for this strat than whatever the deluded "pro town" value is she's claiming.

Clear up for me why, of the lurkers, she is more likely to be town for you.

My impression is that her team wants her attention on their games and she'll get in to this one later. Given that I would expect her to create readable content later on, there's no reason to doubt that she is telling the truth and will produce content later.

At least she has been open about it.

[Espeonage]

If NSG has never bussed anyone I will be super surprised.

And I would not make a claim that NSG is non negotiable n1 kill in any game unless she has absolutely nailed the scum team or can be used to heavily implicate another townie. While I said this was the weakest playerlist due to the severe lack of depth, doesn't mean there isn't a top end.

[Espeonage]

My impression is that her team wants her attention on their games and she'll get in to this one later. Given that I would expect her to create readable content later on, there's no reason to doubt that she is telling the truth and will produce content later.

At least she has been open about it.

[Snip]
Bounce ideas of them sure, but play your game, don't be a conduit for someone to just play four games.

She is implying that she is being conduited to play other games while not playing this one. You being cool with it seems really hypocritical to me.

I'm not in other games, if people aren't gonna chuck a hissy fit like I did over group reading then so be it. The entire point of my rant is that I don't want people wresting control of other games. It would hypocritical of me to hold games I'm not in to my standard.

[Espeonage]

Dunn 346's counter point to Kitty's claim that Auro is posturing as caught for the wrong reasons was to say yeah but he does this all the time. Which was one a found as soon as I started looking.

[Espeonage]

If NSG has never bussed anyone I will be super surprised.

And I would not make a claim that NSG is non negotiable n1 kill in any game unless she has absolutely nailed the scum team or can be used to heavily implicate another townie. While I said this was the weakest playerlist due to the severe lack of depth, doesn't mean there isn't a top end.

Not in a meta sense, she wouldn't bus because the loss of a scum member has a large detrimental impact for scum.

If she's town, scum have every reason to believe she would "town it up" and gamesolve later, I dunno if they'd keep her around as a lynch option. I bring up the N1 kill point because there's an inconsistency - not in the game directly, and I can't say more.

This game is mountainous with EXTRA reason to bus. Your argument is inherently flawed by the fact that scum have even more incentive to bus not less.

[Espeonage]

Auro, if you are town. At what point do you stop and think "Lots of people are scum reading me for the way I am playing and the biggest argument against it I have is it is how I play. Maybe I need to rethink how I am approaching the game"?

[Espeonage]

Yes on Day 1.

Thinking that the white flag mechanic is going to stop hyper bussing is very dangerous wifom.

[Espeonage]

Like look at this way.

If I were scum in this game, given the relative weakness of the playerlist. I would pocket someone strong. I would then hyper Lynch a scum buddy, then I would try and argue that other people are scum and posture that scum are just fkn dumb because both me and pocketed player have BOTH been left alive. Then when push comes to shove I would accuse my pocketed person of doing exactly what I have been doing and try and win the game.

The pure unadulterated and pristine town crew scum gets from bussing day 1 is way way too good to pass up on.

[Espeonage]

Really?

Like actually really?

[Espeonage]

It's more a question of trust.

I have no trust in the other players in this game, so I feel a bit man against the world bc I don't feel comfortable bouncing ideas off anyone here so I'm trying to brute force. Look I'm happy to be proven wrong but at the moment.

[Espeonage]

Like it was reinforced early by Auro's complete stubbornness to see how he is not helping at all while other people defended it as a viable course of action. It doesn't even matter if Auro is town or scum, what matters is that it is frankly unacceptable to get repeated requests from multiple people to rethink what they are doing.

The fact that it is still not resolve drained any meagre optimism I might have had about the game.

To answer your question, wasted? no. Is this game feeling more and more like smashing my head against a wall that should have come down ages ago? god yes.

[Espeonage]

I don't know how you got comfortable doing that with anyone if your strategy for people you don't know is to not talk to them

Because they usually display a willingness to work with others with regularity.

I would expect a normal trajectory of a game to be a bunch of people fluid about how they are looking at things with the odd vehemence that creates discussion where people can engage in a discourse and maybe adapt their reads.

So far this game I have seen two schools of thought at bitter odds, everyone giving up and turning on someone in the corner bc it is easier than admitting that there is eve a slim possibility of being wrong.

The cruel twist is that there is one to two people who have exhibited that, and they are both people in the scummier half of the playerlist which is really screwing with my brain as well.

[Espeonage]

I presented hypotheses on situations I could see myself be wrong based on wagon stuff and asked about how that might colour reads not he rest of the playerlist and it was picked up with an offhand comment by you and dan and then dropped.

It was a concerted effort to start a discourse on where and why I would be wrong in my reads up to that point and was presented with a severe lack of engagement with it.

[Espeonage]

I am uncharacteristically angry at this entire playerlist and setup which isn't helping.

My main quips with the setup were even confirmed like a page ago so whatever.

[Espeonage]

My main qualm with FF is that there is small amounts of analysis, but there's a lot of words that say nothing as well.

That said I can see that being a pit fall of intermittent catchups as well so I'm not super keen on voting there any time soon.

[Espeonage]

I think Dann strong manning people off the Auro wagon by discrediting the reads was also an influence for me and why I would see those two as SvS should Auro flip scum at some stage.

Do you see any credibility to the line that Dann is possibly white knighting Auro given the amount of focus that has been on both that wagon and counterwagons? Like it's not really something that comes in to play until later days but that's my reaction there if Auro flipped town at some point.

I wouldn't fight tooth and nail by any stretch of the imagination if Dann flipped scum first. I'd still be down for Auro.

Like as much as I hate hate hate pre flip associatives that point is moot when every option leads to the same conclusion. I want to answer if I am confbiasing on it all though.

[Espeonage]

On that note Kitty. I am sorry. I was thinking about how best to go about fixing it yesterday. I was just going to forward an apology to the person as it has been too long for the video to make sense. I dropped the ball on that so I'm sorry abut that. I get how that can colour me for the game.

I have no evidence against you if it makes you feel better. If I had to take a guess on it, it would be that I agree with you the most which feels really damn weird in this oddball game. Which is why you are one of the only people who I feel is playing the game at the moment.

[Espeonage]

Off topic, my radio silence is mostly embarrassment at not sorting it out.

[Espeonage]

What I was discussing with Cheeky may help you sort out your issues with forming your own read on Auro.

I got next to nothing on dong in my head though atm if you want to flesh that out for me.

[Espeonage]

Can you pinpoint why?

[Espeonage]

The issue Auro is that it isn't townie.

[Espeonage]

Me any time Auro starts defending.

[Espeonage]

@Kitty: Bc given how batshit I think most players in this game are I think I am projecting distrust of people who agree with me or I agree with. It's pure paranoia.

That's a me issue though. Like I have exactly zero quantifiable one you so I'll drop it.

[Espeonage]

She means Esp green would imply strong Auro red, and in turn Dann, etc...?

Gobble townslipped methinks.

I think Esp is the best lynch regardless today.

I think it is a mistake to assume that me and auto is SvT both potential ways.

I agree that there needs to be analysis of mid day wagons, the resistance they both had and how me v Auro shaped that phase of the day.

I still think Dann looks bad on both sides, but I'm not enjoying my own lines on that read.

[Espeonage]

Unless she is saying I dont read the same from my town game there to my town game here

Yes I've said that

This is a really weak line.

[Espeonage]

I think a "this doesn't resemble his town game from x game" is super weak.

Having qualms with his posting is fine.

[Espeonage]

I read 4 on fish.

[Espeonage]

Missed the BBMoles

[Espeonage]

I pref FF over NSG

[Espeonage]

Vote: FF

[Espeonage]

I pref FF over NSG

Why?

Maybe because I have voiced concerns over FF already and hard defended NSG?

[Espeonage]

Well Dunn, see the thing about having two days or so left and two prominent wagons is that I kinda have to make a choice. I think we can agree on a sliding scale I have shown I have FF as more scum than NSG. So I don't see why my vote is confusing to you.

What action would you rather me take? Vote NSG after defending her, or staying off wagons and being all around unhelpful to coming up with a Lynch.

[Espeonage]

Well Dunn, see the thing about having two days or so left and two prominent wagons is that I kinda have to make a choice. I think we can agree on a sliding scale I have shown I have FF as more scum than NSG. So I don't see why my vote is confusing to you.

What action would you rather me take? Vote NSG after defending her, or staying off wagons and being all around unhelpful to coming up with a Lynch.

[Espeonage]

Dunn, I still don't get your qualms. Do you agree that there should be consolidation of votes at this point in the day?

If yes, then stop being nitpicky, these are the two biggest wagons. If not, then propose what you would like done instead?

[Espeonage]

I mean like, if FF does flip scum this looks pretty fkn weird for you right now.

[Espeonage]

Plot twist. It was Dunn white knighting auro all along. We've been fools. It all makes sense now.

We gotta Lynch ff now. This is too juicy of a weird af reaction to consolidation votes.

[Espeonage]

Tin foil hat time.

There are two players that have been on two important counter wagon movements today. One is on someone who if town, fits a very strong archetype for white knighting, someone argumentative with a divisive personality and convenient but not necessary valid counterpoint to rally around.

Then, as consolidation happens at end of day with part of it around an easy lurk Lynch and the other on another generally scum lent slot, they launch a second co-ordinated counter wagon movement, one doing with with a tone that felt to me frantic.

I accuse Dunnstral in the Dannflor with the Formerfish. I'd like to check the envelope please.

[Espeonage]

Is no one else getting klaxons going off in all directions from Dunn's reaction to the FF momentum?

Because that is ringing so clear at me right now.

[Espeonage]

I hate reads lists but I think I'm a bit all over the place so I might hand draw a little mind map or some shit for this game.

[Espeonage]

who are even gobbles and dong? I can't recall a single one of either of their posts without going back to them.

[Espeonage]

Vote: Dunn

[Espeonage]

Vote: FF

[Espeonage]

Dann can you pick playing either townie or scummy because I feel like you are town most of the time and then you make posts 1278 and I go, is this guy really going to decide the day's Lynch based pre flip associatives?

You made really logically sound arguments for FF over NSG and then flip flop around. I am going to go benefit of the doubt and say that you are just flip-flopping because of the high thread presence and overthinking, but really man, have conviction in some direction.

[Espeonage]

Actually the vc makes sense because one vote switch provides a two vote momentum swing not one.

[Espeonage]

One person swaps and hey, the other wagon is winning. And then another does and they aren't ever equal until the people not picking a side get with the program and pick.

[Espeonage]

I feel like 1275 and 1276 directly contradict each other. For both myself and BB.

[Espeonage]

Ok I think I can make my breakdown clear.

NSG flips town. We get absolutely nothing from it.
NSG flips scum. Great.
FF flips scum, great but also we have a bunch of shit to go on from that because they were actually engaged in discourse.
FF flips town, we can actually examine what this means for gamestate based on that fucking discourse.

Both situation are better for flipping FF.

[Espeonage]

My top town read atm is actually Cheeky which might surprise everyone even thought it shouldn't.

I feel more confident in Cheeky town than in any of my scum reads.

[Espeonage]

If you're town, there must be some discussion about gamesolves for this game, right? While if you're scum there wouldn't. So I want access to them, and paraphrasing is allowed.

I don't think anyone on my team has read any of the other games. I don't even know the roles of any of my teammates. Like Don't get me wrong, I want ff lynched but like, this isn't necessarily true.

[Espeonage]

Hey Auro, if you had to vote between FF and NSG right this very second without anyone making any more posts today, which would it be?

[Espeonage]

TM Rules: They may not copy and paste text OUT of their PT/DC into game threads.

[Espeonage]

Y'ello.

I stand by my logic for not voting NSG. I think it was still sound in the grand scheme of things. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 and it is easy to look back and go Espe defended NSG the hardest, must be scum.

I present an interesting observation. Dann agreed with most of what I was saying in the latter half of Day 1, and now is spearheading my wagon for reasons previously he agreed with, or at least saw the logic in. That smells really bad from my PoV. I think Ceph is on the right track here. Unfortunately, this means that the FF/Dunn team I was dreaming of isn't likely to be a thing. Not impossible, but also unlikely.

Vote: Dann

The 180 read based on a flip when I approached the competing wagons from a purely information and logic standpoint feels telling to me.

[Espeonage]

Dunn only makes sense if FF is also scum tbh. But that's my most tinfoil read, I'd go with the other scumspects today.

That was my tinfoil hat theory lol.

[Espeonage]

Ok I think I can make my breakdown clear.

NSG flips town. We get absolutely nothing from it.
NSG flips scum. Great.
FF flips scum, great but also we have a bunch of shit to go on from that because they were actually engaged in discourse.
FF flips town, we can actually examine what this means for gamestate based on that fucking discourse.

Both situation are better for flipping FF.

yeah basically that ^

I think there's almost always 1 scum between NSG and FF and I've felt that way since NSG came in and voted FF.

I don't want to lynch NSG for what are mostly NAI things.

I still think FF is scummy. And I don't think people should be swayed by AtE that comes from a place that is NAI. FF would be frustrated here as either alignment I can guarantee that.

Uhhh, no misrep from me found. :/

[Espeonage]

Like that was the entirety of my reasoning. Like I defended NSG because I understood what she was saying even though in hindsight it was a ruse.

I also expressed some small issues with FF which was pre the end of day situation.

[Espeonage]

So yeah Dann trying to Lynch me for points he agreed with smells scummy to me.

[Espeonage]

Enlighten me to my own thoughts oh Omniscient one.

[Espeonage]

663 is the tl;dr of 1287. Like they say the exact same thing. One just provides the background thinking. idk how you can agree with one and disagree with the other. Unless you were doing to argue that FF was lurking.

I don't think NSG had a higher scum equity than any other lurk slot. Like even post flip I would argue there was at no point a plausible case on her. The case was she has a reputation of being good and is lurking so Lynch her. That isn't a plausible case regardless of if it is on scum or not. It doesn't matter the player or the game.

[Espeonage]

Ok so to get back to the point I was making originally, your opinion of my stance changes on how much you agree with me? So if you agree with me I'm town and if you disagree with me I am scum?

Because that seems very wrong.

The point of your response was to argue that I didn't have a single logical explanation for voting FF over NSG which I have pointed out and then responded to your counterpoint, and now you are arguing that they are different bc you had a read change between them??!??

And no it isn't an oversimplification. There is going to be a game where a meta tell is wrong bc if not it'd be a trust tell. So no, there was nothing VALID that gave her any scum equity over any other lurker.

[Espeonage]

eddie has commented that your attitude of hating this game/playerlist/life/universe all of D1 makes a lot more sense if you rolled scum with NSG

Nah. I hate white flag bc it's a terrible setup to be town in not because it's terrible to be scum in. I believe I argued it was mountainous with extra stuff for scum and everyone went you're an idiot.

I'm actually mad bc one of the only players I absolutely hate with a passion signed up for the large theme and bc it was at the bottom of our priority list (bc it's the biggest playlist) I got shunted to this god forsaken setup.

I mellowed out after Kitty called me out for being antisocial bc I actually feel really bad for being a dick out of game to her.

[Espeonage]

The point of your response was to argue that I didn't have a single logical explanation for voting FF over NSG

I don't think I ever said this? Please quote it if I did.

Look, I understand where you're coming from with lurkers being bad lynches. I don't think I ever said that logic specifically is incorrect. However, I disagreed with the way you used it to defend NSG originally because yes! a scum tell that usually fits her scum meta does raise her scum equity!

I am not ever going to let a meta based case sway me. I have too frequently seen this kind of shit abused including by myself. Ask Ducky if I am ever going to believe a meta argument? There is NO person's meta I would accept as the basis of a read and if anyone has any respect for anyone else's skill ceiling they wouldn't either.

even if it's wrong sometimes. You not entertaining that point and using the often repeated logic of needing a high information lynch D1 felt disingenuous to me.

And you would be wrong. Not using meta EVER is a hill I will die on

I agreed later because I'd felt my reasons for NSG scum had lessened and FF had become a much spicier lynch, but I digress. This feels like a semantics or language issue we're having because I thought I was always very clear it was the way you originally used that defense I took issue with. We were wagoning NSG and you popped in with "lurkers are bad lynches," which is not bad logic in theory, but felt like a LAMISTY attempt to discredit the wagon on her without even considering the valid point raised against her.

There was never a valid point raised on her. And when no one was even listening to my argument against lynching her, I explained the behind the scenes thinking for this exact stance and you agreed with it. They are the exact same argument, one is a one liner, the other is a four liner

I don't think I ever said you never had a reason to vote FF over NSG. That would in fact be very hypocritical. My issue with you has to do with the fact that you did (and are still) dismissing the issues with NSG as nothing, even though they were valid reasons to scum read her. Like your point about meta tells sometimes being different otherwise they would be a trust tell is silly because the logical conclusion to that as a dismissal is that we just shouldn't use meta at all.

See above. The hill I will die on. I am CERTAIN that there are people that will never ever use meta to defend or incriminate me because of how perfectly I can fake my scum game as town and how perfectly I can fake my town game as scum and I am not even close to being one of the best players at doing this.

You were treating NSG like any other lurker and boiling it down to "lurking lynches bad." Even though the case was deeper than that. There was a reason NSG got wagoned over another lurker like Dong.

I didn't agree with the reasons. Also people wanted to Lynch dong all day anyway.

Responses in bold.

[Espeonage]

Ask Ducky if I am ever going to believe a meta argument?

Isnt this meta though

NAI

[Espeonage]

As in, I'm not arguing it is scum or town indicative.

I am arguing it is how I fundamentally believe the game works.

[Espeonage]

Hmm... ok I see how you can take that line. Sorry I forgot I was also defending not just casing on Dann lol. Fair enough. Disregard it.

[Espeonage]

I might be ascribing town points to Dong's posts because of Dong™ things and not things that are actually town indicative. Because a lot of it feels too wolfy to be wolfy but if Auro says he's just like this then that might be a bad thing to fall back on.

Espeonage, the only thing I really have to say is that it doesn't matter whether or not you believe in meta as a scum hunting tool. The fact of the matter is there was valid reason to believe NSG's scum equity was higher than other lurkers for the other players in the game. And even if you personally don't subscribe to using meta in mafia it

didn't seem like you were even recognizing the concerns people

had, instead discrediting them as just-another-lurker-lynch.

I was wilfully ignoring them.

[Espeonage]

Hey Espe, let's leave aside the lurker lynch argument for a moment because I don't think that's going anywhere.

Should also be noted that I reckon NSG is more likely to be town in my book than most of the other lurkers.

Why did you think NSG was more likely town than other slots here? What was your logic/reasoning behind town reading her? Or at least town reading her more than the other lurker slots?

This was very close after the AtE which I ate up.

[Espeonage]

Ok so I'm in a weird spot because my town reads at the moment include Cheeky and Dong.

That said I am also wresting with, if scum is leading the town at the moment which is 'feels' like, then the narrative of yesterday likely would have been different. I'm gonna try and wrap my head around that conundrum and come back with some theories because all the momentum stuff points to scum in the mid charisma tier if that makes sense.

[Espeonage]

515 was the big one ya.

[Espeonage]

Like if I was on a team that was serious about winning and I wanted to manipulate specific playlists then yeah I totally would. I can explain my reasoning on this post game bc I'm not sure if going head first in to it would break team mafia rules.

[Espeonage]

Like I 'may' be both right AND wrong at the same time. Like I was wrong on NSG but my logic may well prove true as well.

[Espeonage]

Who was vote 6 on the NSG wagon?

[Espeonage]

Vote Count

northsidegal - 5

(Kittymo, Cephrir, Dunnstral, Formerfish, gobbledygook)

Formerfish - 4

(BBMolla, northsidegal, Dannflor, Espeonage)

gobbledygook - 1

(Hopkirk)

Not Voting - 3

(Auro, CheekyTeeky, Dongempire)

Activity Check - All Good!

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-17 22:59:30)

Vote Count

northsidegal - 7

(Kittymo, Dunnstral, gobbledygook, BBMolla, Dannflor, Cephrir, Dongempire)

Formerfish - 2

( northsidegal, Espeonage)

BBMolla - 2

(CheekyTeeky, Formerfish)

gobbledygook - 1

(Hopkirk)

Not Voting - 1

(Auro)

Activity Check - Lynch at #1460

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-17 22:59:30)

Anyone got on hand what happened in voting between these two VCs?

[Espeonage]

I probably will. I am just interested in seeing the actions. Like talking about doing something near end day is all well and good, but it's the action that matters in a time like that.

Let me ask you, how many scum do you think bussed NSG in the last 2 irl days of the day?

[Espeonage]

Well really I want people to do my busywork bc I am work and play when I am bored. I barely open my computer at home.

Also quick fire; Asked you bc you were around. It's designed to help give me direction today bc I am feeling Conf bias-y and want to start afresh. Partly bc my scum reads are universally town read and partly bc my town reads are universally scum lent. So this is my starting again day 2 bc NSG has given us little bc she was super bussable and kitty kill was next to zero info as well. Like the only kills that would make sense in my head would have been kitty and maybe Ceph. I don't think anyone else would have been close.

Now mid charisma tier would be people who aren't leading but also aren't lurking. They maybe have the ear of a player or two. Less of a reflection on people as a whole, more about how people are this game. Like I would put Ceph, Dong, Myself, Cheeky, Kitty, Dunn here.

[Espeonage]

I more want to see if I am missing something on you and dong, or if I have something on Dunn, or if Ceph is flying under the radar. Or if it is all nothing. idk.

[Espeonage]

Hot take unrelated to anything I've talked about bc I just was thinking in the toilet. An FF flip would help a lot rn.

[Espeonage]

I'll be annoyed. But I get where BB is coming from tbh. There's a bunch of free lynches.

[Espeonage]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm..... Had a look and I think there's two important points to look at from the end of the day.

1. No one had any point had a real opportunity to hammer until Dong did it.
2. The flash wagon on BB got to L-2 and just ran out of steam quite abruptly. There needed to be a Lynch so I don't think any votes after that get any town crew EXCEPT that dong specifically thought NSG was going to flip town and that wording seems to genuine to be played up.
3. Dann was the momentum jump, however BB wasn't going to happen at that point, and FF only had two votes on him left. Also the first time Dann voted NSG in the end of day shenanigans.
3. Ceph put to l-1. Potential cred snap up, so unsure here. I think Dann comes off worse as Ceph was vote parked on NSG while Dann stayed off it and was commenting from the side.

All other votes were earlier composition so I would think they have all been added to the hive mind and don't come in to specific scrutiny here.

[Espeonage]

@Dong: As much as I hate to ask, I can't see it and don't think there is likely any credence to it, but one of your teammates said they saw Ceph/NSG relationals.

I'd like to confirm I can soft Conf town ceph and noticed your point there. Would be nice to be able to throw it away.

[Espeonage]

haha I managed to say two points, write numbers 1 through 3, and had 4 points total.

I'm good at this.

[Espeonage]

I can tell you the answer to number 1 is no, and the answer to the second one is idk.

[Espeonage]

If I was scum I would have been playing Hangman in the scum thread to calm down.

[Espeonage]

However that's just want I do in all PTs I am in lol.

[Espeonage]

Toilet thought.

Scum either bussed or didn't bus. However, if they did bus then they are both in at least decent town standing.

If they didn't bus then they are both off the wagon.

We don't need both scum, so I think anyone who was not in good town standing on the NSG wagon should just be excluded from the Lynch pool for at least a couple of days. Which I think removes Gobble, BBM, and Dong from the effective Lynch pool.

[Espeonage]

haha, didn't read the pedit.

[Espeonage]

If I take Ceph and myself off my Lynch pool and probs cheeky bc I like that town read. My effective Lynch pool is Dann, Dunn, Auro, Hop, and FF.

[Espeonage]

I was looking from the pivotal vote count onwards. As I said everything before that has already been covered.

Like the specific phase where there is the jump and scramble for end of day lynches is most certainly the strongest part of the day for any sort of relational analysis.

Like even if you take me out of my town reads I think mechanically there are at most 6 mechanically viable lynches. Five if I don't include myself.

[Espeonage]

Given how many mislynches we have I will vote for any of these.

Dann, Dunn, Auro, Hop, and FF

[Espeonage]

If you want me to vote elsewhere talk to me about my relational analysis or sell me on cheeky or ceph.

[Espeonage]

Engaged with her yesterday. I feel like I have sorted her, I am happy with that. I am also quite content in my plan for game solve as being quite strong. My own analysis puts me in the Lynch pool for any player not named me.

Like I am as close to certain as anyone can be in mafia that here is at least 1 and possibly 2 scum in my five player pool. And those are pretty damn good odds even if people consider it 1 or 2 in a 6 person pool.

Better than random lynching and a good sight better to rally people behind.

[Espeonage]

Dann, Dunn, Auro, Hop, and FF

I would be very unsurprised if this was 5 town.

I would honestly be a teeny bit surprised if it didn't contain two scum.

[Espeonage]

I may be throwing away BB too easily, but eh.

[Espeonage]

I am not sure how to parse that question.

[Espeonage]

We don't need both scum, so I think anyone who was not in good town standing on the NSG wagon should just be excluded from the Lynch pool for at least a couple of days. Which I think removes Gobble, BBM, and Dong from the effective Lynch pool.

Can you re-explain this?

How does this make sense? This reads to me like "I only want to lynch townie people" for... what reason exactly?

I can understand a town read on Dong tangentially but why are you clearing Gobble and BBM—even if just for "a couple days."

If you gonna bus in White Flag it's potentially really strong but you also have to be able to carry the game. So anyone who voted for NSG that was in weak standing probably isn't scum bc they aren't in positions to carry the game out.

Those players, if they weren't on NSG would be in the Lynch pool. But I have removed them as they aren't carries and WERE on NSG.

Because like we need one scum not both. So there is no way any of them are partnered together either posturing around on NSG.

So that removes them from the Lynch pool. leaves 8 of the 11 players. Take myself out, 7 players, take out Ceph and Cheeky for reasons previously stated, five people. And that is a pretty damn tight Lynch pool.

[Espeonage]

The duck has offended me.

Ok let me put this together in a way that makes sense bc my wording is getting cyclical when I try and type it out and it would be really difficult for anyone else to parse.

[Espeonage]

Formerfish - 5

(BBMolla, northsidegal, Dannflor, Espeonage, Dongempire)

northsidegal - 5

(Kittymo, Cephrir, Dunnstral, Formerfish, gobbledygook)

gobbledygook - 1

(Hopkirk)

Not Voting - 2

(Auro, CheekyTeeky)

for reference

Cheeky, Auro, I think you should vote FF

Ok this might be a better vote count to reference.

This is the last votes before the scramble. There are no votes between this and the BBM flash wagon so this is pure positional with no guarantee on anyone.
An important point is that gobble is the tipping vote that switched momentum to NSG which was even talked about after the VC came out. Really strong points for gobble here.

I have gone through the scramble votes and I am already seeing that I may have been quick to give a pass to Dong, however I am fairly sure I called them town at some point which was based on play not analysis.

Anyways, there is still scope for non NSG Lynch here, so any votes on NSG aren't super alignment indicative yet being pre-scramble.

Vote Count

northsidegal - 7

(Kittymo, Dunnstral, gobbledygook, BBMolla, Dannflor, Cephrir, Dongempire)

Formerfish - 2

( northsidegal, Espeonage)

BBMolla - 2

(CheekyTeeky, Formerfish)

gobbledygook - 1

(Hopkirk)

Not Voting - 1

(Auro)

Activity Check - Lynch at #1460

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-17 22:59:30)

End of day. There was scope for FF or BBM to be lynched instead but they ran out of steam which is when the consolidation on NSG happened. I have gone over how votes on NSG here make sense as scum, but there is also the point that there was scope to be stubborn without too much repercussion or just to ignore the thread.

So at this point scum need to make a decision to either bus, or play out for no Lynch or be stubborn and try and force on fish or bbm, a last two hours consolidation on FF was not out of the question.

Using all of this I think that any scum votes on NSG that exist in the final vote count are done with the express notion that they can carry out the game.

This is why I have excluded Gobble, BBM, and Dong from my Lynch pool. The rest has been covered in detail already and isn't the point of contention.

My Lynch pool are people that aren't excluded by any of these categories.

They are not a widely suspected person on the NSG Lynch wagon

- Eliminates Gobble, BBM, Dong

I am not lock-town reading them

- Eliminates Ceph and Cheeky

It is not myself

- Eliminates me.

Once again for those not paying attention. I will Lynch in Dunn, Dann, FF, Hop, and Auro.

[Espeonage]

I am not saying that none of them could be scum. One of the people I have discounted very well could be. But the chances of two of them being scum are so astronomically small coupled with negative utility means that they leave the Lynch pool bc they are ignorable bc this setup is a steaming pile of shit.

The single silver lining is that I get to create this subset of names that is sure to have one if not more scum in it.

The point is that the there is no conceivable combination of the names excluded that could be both scum as far as I am concerned.

[Espeonage]

Fuck man, I haven't actually gone back and done this much quoting and explanation in literally years I think. I really hate doing work at work.

[Espeonage]

You are going to need to point and argue against my fundamental logic.

My pools for scum are
1-2 scum in Dunn, Dann, FF, Hop, Auro
1-2 scum in Dunn, Dann, FF, Hop, Auro, Ceph, Cheeky, Dong, Gobble, BBM
0-1 scum in Ceph, Cheeky, Dong, Gobble, BBM

Why would I ever Lynch in a 0-1 scum pool.

Also At what point did you go from lets consider lynching Hop to very surprised if hop flips scum? I just realised you said these things.

[Espeonage]

Inb4 dann is scum and setting me up for the NK.

Quietly been feeling this all day lol.

[Espeonage]

Dude I have been voting him for like this whole day.

[Espeonage]

Alright.

Dann, can I talk to you for some real talk here bc you are running the town and while I don't think you are town, there is at least a decent chance you are and scum is other people in the list.

One of the things that reinforced my read on you was the fact that your duck Lynch pool post makes more sense as scum telling you how important my Lynch is which could be paraphrased. I refuse to believe a team as smart as yours isn't able to take a step back and go Espe thinks with some amount of certainty that one of these five players is scum, I am only one of them, so I don't need to try and shoot down the case. Like the fact that there is an overlap in our Lynch pools is really grinding on me because I do not see town you not compromising with me for a day or two. And I especially don't see duck letting you do that.

Now to FF, I am really really annoyed at the fact that you somehow think I am pushing you. I am not pushing you, haven't since day 1, but you are trapped in some sort of irrational paranoia that is about the only thing you have talked about all day.

@Dann quoting me, I haven't felt like FF should be lynched first since I went in to game solve. I didn't even really think it. It was an off topic post to what was being discussed bc at the time I felt it was true bc I still really wanted to get more info on Dunn. FF would have been a tool to that end.

If people want me to order my Lynch pool list my preferred order would be Dann, Hop, Auro, Dunn, FF.

With the proviso that not a single player that has come under medium to high level of scrutiny is lynched until at least two highly town read players. Because like I don't enjoy the term deep wolf, I am nest to certain in my Lynch pool list hitting scum at least once and god save this game if I am lynched and Dann or Dunn is scum.

[Espeonage]

My issue with your entire approach is that the game is past the phase where reads matter any more. Reads don't matter any more.

This is pure mechanical game solve.

[Espeonage]

Like in what world can you argue mechanical is worse than reads. Reads are much much more fallible.

[Espeonage]

Look I included that I fit all my own criteria except that I know I am town. Flip me then start lynching in my pool.

[Espeonage]

If that is what it takes to get my viewpoint respected then so be it.

[Espeonage]

We have enough lynches.

[Espeonage]

My issue with Hopkirk next is a pure straight up do not trust the playerlist to Lynch you before Lylo if both me and cheeky are dead.

[Espeonage]

One of the main reasons you are at the top of the list is that people's strength of town game is irrelevant at the moment, but how strong they are as scum here is the biggest factor.

[Espeonage]

Irrelevant.

[Espeonage]

I'd rather Hop, ngl.

Vote: Hop

[Espeonage]

Lynch Dann before lylo, and only Lynch within my pool without fail, kthxbye

[Espeonage]

:p

[Espeonage]

I'll only lynch Espy if we 100% lynch gobbles tomorrow.

This is fkn terrible.

[Espeonage]

Not too late to make Hop happen tbh.

[Espeonage]

I'm not going to vote Gobble. Like they might be scum. But if they aren't then there's not really enough time to go through my pools and that's not a risk I'd like to take.

[Espeonage]

VLA for 48 hours. It's a public holiday in Australia