Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]
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Rce/a50/ydra/Raya PoE right?In post 946, northsidegal wrote:Umlaut is aligned with theTown.
Fredrick A Campbell is aligned with theTown.
Eevee is aligned with theTown.
Snowblaze is aligned with theTown.
Titus is aligned with theTown.
Day 2 begins.-
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tricks? uhhhh I'll try my best uh
I have some gum if that helps?-
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talk to me about menalque - our scumflip is offwagon, and the wagon was reasonably well padded with ICs
who struck you as opportunistic around it? who felt EMPOWERED AND RIGHTEOUS about menalque being scum?
do you think you were deceived, or do you think town danced off a cliff? noting that SS was probably not the immediate deceiver
what do you think about SS choosing to escape rather than ~whoever his buddy is~-
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i would normally assert that bussing is counter-intuitive in this setup, but also kinda have to acknowledge that at a minimum, SS bussed.In post 944, northsidegal wrote:
so is the second busser in this situatio raya or ydrasse? given they're crossvoting now i can't help but wonder if one of them has been keeping the other alive/unconfirmed to set them up for this ~~
or is mohab/maemuki staying off their cw for so long to distance from rce or a50?
it's like a big technicolour jigsaw puzzle. i'm excited!-
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it shows something very different actually! we have different thought processes, and i have freshly replaced into the game.In post 2045, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:I believe the fact that I have not thought of any of those questions just shows how bad I am at this game.
I will think it through so that I can give you a well thought out answer. Don't have time to do that right now, but you could expect it in 24 hours.
i'd value your input quite highly, since we're just as likely to come up with different answers, as we are to come up with different questions.-
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@ydra
assume i'm tired & fairly hung over and not really prepared to deepdive your walls of analysis above
can you give me a couple of sentences on why any of that actually makes the other person likely to be mafia aligned with SS?
@raya
i'll probably ask you to do roughly the same-
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In post 1745, Almost50 wrote:The good news is: I am home
The bad news is: I am beat and really need to sleep
I'll probably read back tomorrow, but right now I will do this:
VOTE: S_S
I am assuming AT LEAST one scum bus'd and one didn't. The 3 unconfirmed on Mae's wagon were Raya, Ydrasse & S_S. I think the scum of them likely fence-sat yesterday, in an attempt not to be caught on a miselimination. "I was on the scum wagon but not on the Town wagon" is a good defence from scum PoV. S_S is the one that fits the profile. Ydrasse & RTaya were both on me, and I was this close to being eliminated myself. If that had happened they'd have looked bad (almost as bad as Menalque does for many), so I conclude S_S is the one scum ON the Mae wagon, but I really can't decide whether the 2nd scum was also on the Mae wagon (Ydrasse) or the Snow wagon (Menalque). (My problem is Menalque has been promoting himself as a GOOD scum player, and I did witness his Scum game once and he was indeed good, so I am not sure if this is his bad town play or his attempt on being too scummy to be scum.)
Aside from that, S_S is play is reminding me of his play in the previous game (with me and Menalque) when he was Scum. He looks disengaged and rarely intervenes. He refused to bus in that game though, and that's what kept him off the bottom of my readlist here, but the thing is I can't see Raya+Ydrasse as a team that double bus'd and then decided to powerpush me on D2 too. In fract, I don't think this is Raya's scum game at all, so it's either S_S or Ydrasse (or both). Oh, and the reason I firmly believe at least one scum bus'd is the fact I know I'm Town and the confidence I have in my TR on RCE.
Disclaimer: Sleep on this for 24 hours if you will. I don't even know if what I've just typed reflects my thoughts accurately or not, because I amfalling asleep already. Please do ask me for elaboration on whatever you think doesn't make sense or is unclear to you and I will respond when I come back next (in less than 12-16 hours ideally, but give it up to 24 hours at max)In post 1902, Almost50 wrote:Daily reminder that S_S is scum with ydrasse or Menalque and should be the elimination here.In post 1903, Almost50 wrote:What if I fakeclaimed a guilty on S_S? Would that help?? Hmmm.. guess not.
OK, I'll come clean. I'm a Jailkeeper, and I jailkept S_S twice. This is why scum have not been able to kill yet. (Yeah, THAT'll work)In post 1904, Almost50 wrote:But seriously, I dunno why everybody's being considered BUT S_S. I want someone to enlighten me, cuz he feels so much like he was in the previous game (with the exception of the bus vote as I said earlier)
How moved was everyone by A50 correctly scumcasing SS?
did he have enough clout that this was unlikely to be a bus?-
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Titus was pushing for an Ydra elim before being shot for what it's worth
soul tells me it's just one of raya/ydra-
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first impression here is that it's very realistic for townies to nullread each other as well. it's doubly realistic for a townie to nullread a scum player who plays as .... delicately? carefully? as ss does. at what point did it strike you that Raya was interacting with a scumbuddy in the interactions which you've referenced?In post 2052, Ydrasse wrote:- there was some s_s/raya mutual ~scumreading going on between them and i don't think that it's genuine. there wasn't a lot of push from either of them, fmpov, to get a true wagon going. this is moreso true for s_s who had some point was like "raya won't be voted out, no one is interested in voting raya" despite there being a few sentiments where people were questioning why raya was being townread as thoroughly as she was. neither of them made a very strong effort to go for each other.
I also think misreading the way the plist is treating a player is more likely a sign of Raya and ss not being aligned aorn? usually in anti bus gamestates, a scumread on your partner feels disproportionately heavy. the clawback ss & his partner had to do from losing their first member wasn't a small task. I'd have actually expected his perspective on how people were reading his partner to be more bleak than negligent (or just sassily blatantly incorrect)? Maybe that's just me. :p-
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I don't think I can really address the rest before I do a decent read. Your assumption that I'm tired and hung over was absolutely correct, so I'm not in the right head space right now. But I'll get back to you well before deadline.-
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you villain!!!!In post 2054, Eevee wrote:
Err... the Menalque lynch may or may not have been forced through by me...In post 2044, the worst wrote:talk to me about menalque - our scumflip is offwagon, and the wagon was reasonably well padded with ICs
who struck you as opportunistic around it? who felt EMPOWERED AND RIGHTEOUS about menalque being scum?
do you think you were deceived, or do you think town danced off a cliff? noting that SS was probably not the immediate deceiver
what do you think about SS choosing to escape rather than ~whoever his buddy is~
Anyway, welcome the worst! I'll read Soon.
~Eva
just kidding - it happens!
who if anyone resisted it with integrity? do you feel like there was anyone who felt like, unexpectedly keen to eliminate menalque?-
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ydra can you talk to me about why you have RCE & A50 cleared?
it would mean more coming from you than eevee. sorry.-
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that wasn't critical of you btw eevee
more like, it's another perspective and it's coming from an uncleared mindset which is a big comfort add.-
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wagonomics tell me rce should be a huge red flag. lol. he's also overwhelmingly competent. i could really use a peace of mind injection :p-
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This really resonates with me. I was thinking something similar (but less eloquent). the Titus kill makes a lot of sense as a deadpan kill from Ydra and a small amount of sense as a wifom kill from Raya given the way she opened the day but I'm really not sure that's a kill from a50 or rce.In post 2077, Eevee wrote:The Titus kill also puts the spotlight on you, but kind of unnecessarily so that it feels like a statement (if that makes sense) and I don't know who else wants to make a statement apart from you.-
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Hey if you zoom in real close on duck bills there's like these little bumps that look like teeth. That's basically the same thing right?In post 2086, Almost50 wrote:
Liar. Duck don't have teeth, so they don't have gums.In post 2042, the worst wrote:I have some gum-
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Thanks Raya. I'd still appreciate a couple of quick sentences or paragraphs on why Ydra is certainly scum fypov. I'll do my big readup soon so I'd appreciate some general things to consider if that's ok with you-
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what if i told you i'm like 90% sure it's a50 and he's bamboozling you-
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I'm not being serious. I kinda think it's Raya :s-
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This is a pretty astute observation but it's between two townies and lacks a vote which makes me so angreyIn post 27, Raya36 wrote:I find it interesting how Holden places an omgus vote on Votato. Then when two votes are placed (one for Holden, one for Votato) he engages with the player who voted for Votato-
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Gonna need you to upgrade this to a pinkie promise, please.In post 2115, Raya36 wrote:
I promise it's not meIn post 2105, the worst wrote:I'm not being serious. I kinda think it's Raya :s
....I failed to actually do reading tonight.
Soon!-
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The more I read the more I don't feel all that great about anyone
A50 is probably town; if he isn't then the fauxbus on SS was probably game winning. I think this is the kind of plist he can beat as scum but he reads reasonably sincere and I do kinda agree that SS may have actually been a contender that phase. I don't think A50 is ever the type to be like "SHEEP ME FOOLS" unless blatantly contradicted which I don't feel like he was.
RCE is not outside scumrange which is Stressful but whatever I'm outsourcing this read to the fact everyone who actually interacted with him townreads him
I think Raya has had more glimmers of towniness than Ydrasse. I think Ydrasse feels like she really needs Raya eliminated more than Raya feels like she desires for Ydrasse to be eliminated
I suppose in a manner of speaking, town who get an elim through have a chance of winning; scum who get an elim through instantly win
idk
maybe this is nonsense?
VOTE: Ydra sry if I'm wrong-
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At a vca level raya and Ydra are like. hauntingly equal slots. it would not surprise me whatsoever if scum considered vca manipulation with their kills, but it would surprise me very much if A50 made the decision to set up a final day Raya/Ydra dichotomy then lurk out in the hopes they killed each other. he was probably setting up Ydra realistically which he hasn't really capitalised on. idk maybe scum!a50 feels comfortable enough, lol. if so ripIn post 2122, Umlaut wrote:VC-
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so she can eat while she flees the ship, andIn post 2132, Ydrasse wrote:watermelon
to kill any townies she bumps into on the wayIn post 2132, Ydrasse wrote:and the knife.
gottem-
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the thing with this section of the argument is I don't feel like that's a way many scumbuddies actually interact, to be entirely honest.In post 2139, Ydrasse wrote:more or less claiming we are the same alignment only UNTIL the mafia gave her a way to recant it
trying to establish Raya as the deepwolf but then stopping halfway to help Raya establish you as a miselim shortly before KNOWING he was about to flip scum would be like....an insanely baller move on SS' part
SS is good at scum for sure but I think he has too much respect for our sanity to do that-
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this is low-key how I feelIn post 2134, Raya36 wrote:
I mean I would disagree from my point of view. There's a much stronger case on me than there is on you I think. I just happen to know that case on me is wrongIn post 2129, Ydrasse wrote:i think it’s unfair to say that me feeling like i have to eliminate raya is a scumpoint and it isn’t the same in reverse. like... yeah? everyone here has basically made up their minds i feel like and i’m working against the tide of everyone. no one can say raya needs to feel like she has to get me out today because 1) she’s been allowed this entire game to go under the radar it feels like and everyone’s kind of given her a townread for most of the game and 2) she isn’t in a position where she’s the person who is gonna get voted out currently so she doesn’t have any reason to push harder until that pressure’s on her.
the case against Raya scores more points as far as like, things which could be considered scummy at some level, but it also doesn't /feel/ right-
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someone w Raya meta please reassure me that her calm and very pleasant tonality is just a feature of her playstyle as either alignment
I know I'm right I just want someone who likes meta to reassure me
I can taste that Ydra is vexed but I don't think the reason for the vexation is really ai-
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basically ya I'm not sure why a lot of these conversations are still happening-
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yeah, if I had to find a way to compare this to my understanding of your meta I'd call it exactly on brand. you're like, earnest and seem to enjoy the game. but you're very likeable and don't seem to take it too seriously.
so it's probably not AI here; I'm just tending back towards the other stuff I'm seeing-
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I'm probably confbiasing atp so outsourcing:In post 2153, Ydrasse wrote:i don’t know who it is if not raya. that’s all i’ve got to offer and if i’m gonna get elimmed at this point then so be it i guess
anyone else find Ydra giving up here kinda scummy?-
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\o\ mood /o/In post 2159, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:I have. However, I am a lot less confident in my read as, in attempting to support it, I have found there is nothing to suggest my guess is even close to being right. To the contrary, there is plenty suggesting my guess is wrong, so my position now is that it is not Almost50.-
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Both.In post 2164, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:
Did you mean 2159?In post 2163, the worst wrote:I feel the same as 2160 to a t.-
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Maybe? Sure. Idk.In post 2165, RCEnigma wrote:This question is a bit leading TW but how likely do you think it is that SS redirects scum agenda upon replacing in?
For the hypothetical say wagons are forming on town but scum aren't interacting with the wagons. Just in general how do you think SS approaches his new scum partners OOT?
This is a quick game; he knows that nobody needs to endgame in the traditional sense. We never, ever play to like f3 for example.
All he knows is that his partner and he need to escape within two phases. I think he knows that he's on thin ice with a50 having shaded him without having a read and potentially needing to 1v1 him to win the game (1v1ing a50 is just an absurdly chaotic experience). Scum shoot Titus who was both suspecting Ydra, and is also a vca wizard. It's like evidenced that scum smelled Mohab's peril in the wind and decided to bus. I think it's very likely there was some distancing/softbussing y'day as well - like being "not associated enough for us to be linked literally tomorrow" is the wincon for scum interactions.
Which is a big part of why I was a bit anxious in townreading A50. But idk. I don't think SS' "he sure is a player" or whatever is particularly partnery. I think A50 is capable of having pushed more nonsense through as scum. I don't think he..... fits?
Raya could be it but it just feels like, anticlimactic. She feels like the player who is normally eliminated in scenarios like this not the player who is aligned with flipped scum. If we had a couple of phases left I think she'd be a great contender but we have one bullet, so I think we need to get a bit more creative.
I'm actually probably more suspicious of you than Raya than A50 atp - it's also kinda PoE-ey but like. the more I think about it Ydra also fits my impression of the way scum in her shoes should be performing in this game.
Like all they need is for people to panic long enough not to kill them
Or to panic and kill someone else
so flinging everything she has at Raya and praying is like exact wincon
I think town in her shoes is probably more inclined to get paranoid of A50 or revisit her read on you
It just feels...maybe constructed?...definitely convenient
:shrug: I think it's just her-
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Sorry I didn't really answer your question directly. I think there was probably a double bus on Mohab/Maemuki. SS definitely bussed that slot. I think it stands to reason that he distanced/softbussed the other.
Bearing in mind my stance on the immediacy of the scum wincon and the facts SS both already has bussed, and is like overwhelmingly sensible?
yeah sure. I think he redirects the scum agenda on rep in if he's not comfortable with the direction it's headed in.-
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It's probably more of a growing discomfort at the idea of eliminating Raya than a scumread on you. if that makes any sense. it might just be my mood too.-
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This is definitely astute.In post 2169, RCEnigma wrote:His mini spat with Raya day 2 just looked really contrived from the outside looking in and even as it was playing out I thought it looked awful but I could see SS leaving that interaction as a red herring.
I think the reverse is true for his comment about SS/Ydra being ridiculous in a way? Unless the last scum is A50 he's intentionally left little breadcrumbs or red herrings to his partner & the set miselim. I have this wonky feeling we're meant to be reading into his decision to leave before his partner but I also don't really feel inclined to do that-
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I guess I could crunch through someone's iso and talk thru what strikes me as towny or not towny until I talk myself into it or out of it if you want? I definitely remember her trajectory fail on Frederick and like yeah it didn't strike me as agenda-fulfilling. it felt kinda clumsy & like maybe a real thoughtIn post 2169, RCEnigma wrote:I haven't really seen Raya as townie as everyone else seems to. The only thing that makes me think hmm town is probably more likely to do this is when Raya defaulted her vote back to Frederick after agreeing he likely towntold. It's offbeat enough to be town just blanking on what's going on.-
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I suppose I'd expect scum who were pushing someone who then towntold to be fairly wary of the towntell
whereas I can absolutely buy being unsure about how to read Freddie in the heat of the moment. I don't think he's the type of player to like exert oppressive levels of sheer obvtown energy. When I've read games with him previously I've generally found him kinda nullish until a certain Cerebral Moment
Or maybe Raya jumping back to Frederick was just uncertainty and opportunism or like trying to avoid the scum wagon actually going through
Who knows ~~
friendly reminder scum made the decision to clear Fred (even tho he was p unlikely aligned with Mohab but whatever) - do we think Raya allows that kind of loose end in her iso as endgame wolf?-
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sure. but every piece of info they've made public has happened via scum agency. their decisions are the most pertinent alignment indicative factors in the game. so I don't think we should go down that particular rabbit hole but I think we should be wary.In post 2175, RCEnigma wrote:Asking why he escaped is the kind of wifom I don't really want to get into. It's just as useful as asking why his partner didn't without knowing his partner.-
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soulread: Titus would engage me about the idea of scum!A50-
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This is a philosophical discussion for another day I think- we're both right and both wrong, just important that we don't get bogged down with possibilities. The answer has to like make sense with the reality we live in, but it's pretty improbable that we'll divine the answer based on mech decisions and all that-
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hey rce I heard a certain monkey thinks you're scumIn post 2181, RCEnigma wrote:
Make A50 call me scum and I'll scum case him.In post 2178, the worst wrote:soulread: Titus would engage me about the idea of scum!A50-
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hello I now think A50 is more likely than rce and I don't know where Raya fits in that
pedit: basically exactly that too ya ;-;-
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I mean I think we've all been aware of the fact scum 100% win if they aren't elim'd vs. town whatever% win if they're not elim'd but beyond that, like
if that's the case I'm not sure why you aren't reconsidering slots other than Raya?-
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I'm like transparently willing to talk about scum A50 or scum rce. I don't feel like anyone has engaged me or tried to engage me on this. might be like biasing because I think I'm great tho-
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this is literally what you do to win the game...In post 2197, Ydrasse wrote:i guess if you think it's a scum mindset i can't really... change that.-
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
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`-`
I feel like my vote makes me a good townie but a bad person
help-
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
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I appreciate that but fmpov focusing on that is like, the least useful thing possible for me
I think maybe if I was less grumpy and jaded I'd find it easier to revisit my bias but in this case I'm like, actively aware I'm biased but also don't really see a reason to fix that bias...?-
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36877
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36877
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
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- Joined: November 7, 2015
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yeah ditto
VOTE: Ydra
sorry which responses do you want my input on? I'm a bit sluggish this morn-
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
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I'm kinda fine with rce
I don't really know that I agree with Menalque and it was pretty hard to follow him this game (hey he'll be back to laugh at us postgame if it is rce)
I haven't played with him in like a long ass minute. I don't think he's as obvtown as everyone is saying he is but I do think he's fairly towny. Rce is very competent.
The less I like Raya as the elim the more I'm like
Ydra > RCE > Raya > A50
tho-
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the worst Snuggly Duckling
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