Open 556: Fire and Ice (Over)

[Randomnamechange]

OH HEY ITS THESE GUYS I KNOW THESE GUYS.
Good to see you again Tricks, Moonlight and Zephrus. Wait a minute!
Zephyrus
phyr
fyr
fire

Vote Zephryus

[Randomnamechange]

I'm worried that Moonlight is scum because he played such a strong game first time round.

[Randomnamechange]

If it was a joke, just treat your wagon as the punchline.

Oooh Burn

[Randomnamechange]

Tricks is a playing a very similar game to the game he played when he was town. So yeah.

[Randomnamechange]

vote 4 heads

If they had been reading through the thread, they would know that we were out of RVS. Mafia lazy? Also, not really sure how I am buddying.

[Randomnamechange]

@4 heads The fact that you gave no reasoning for your vote.
@Moonlight I have become more confident at mafia.
I think Finglove had a decent explanation for his odd voting.
Boro is tunnelling, but I don't really have that as a tell, as in Mewbie 1447 (link at top of page) I saw Hanzo (scum) tunnelling against Tricks (town), Tricks tunnelling against Hanzo, and Tricks tunnelling against TwilightCalls (town). So this is more of a comment really.
I think people are getting a bit hung up on the not_mafia RVS comment.
I definitely see where people are coming from on the tman RVS vote.
The_Ascended makes a good post, but I can see this post coming from scum.
Not got much on the other players really.

[Randomnamechange]

I hate hydras.
I think that Baezu's case on Tricks is more or less baseless assumption.
I'm not sure what to make of tman, gonna wait a bit till everyone has posted more before I start giving solid scumreads.

[Randomnamechange]

I think that 4 heads is playing a game I have seen scum play before. I'm really seeing his play as scummy.
I don't know what is going on with boro, Tricks, Moon and not. They just seem to be throwing random accusations back and forth.
I agree with Moonlight's vote count request.

[Randomnamechange]

Im getting a Hanzo vibe from 4 heads as well. Sorry I havent been the most active, had exams so have been quite busy.
Im keeping my vote where it is, but am going to re evaluate my other reads.
@tricks, if you think Boro is doing a Hanzo, would you be looking at a lurker as the partner?

[Randomnamechange]

Im getting a Hanzo vibe from 4 heads as well. Sorry I havent been the most active, had exams so have been quite busy.
Im keeping my vote where it is, but am going to re evaluate my other reads.
@tricks, if you think Boro is doing a Hanzo, would you be looking at a lurker as the partner?

[Randomnamechange]

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p5867760]post 353[/url], Not_Mafia"]Semi off topic; I'd love nothing more for postgame lulz than for Trickster and Moonlight to be on opposite scumteams who are both trying to captalise on their dynamic to get townread[/quote]
I was thinking exactly this.
I see Hanzo in four heads in that his defence against all votes is basically 'you are just butthurt'

[Randomnamechange]

OK, now 4 heads is threatening to policy lynch. Something they were complaining about.

[Randomnamechange]

OK, now 4 heads is threatening to policy lynch. Something they were complaining about.

but was it different heads? that's what makes it impossible to follow. I have no problems with hydras

per se

, but it's ridiculous that they are allowed to post like this.

Yep. It was red hydra both times.

[Randomnamechange]

Can I just say that, regardless of any ethics involving a Hydra, I think 4 heads is scum.
The_Ascended, is that mastin or pasch in the last post?

[Randomnamechange]

OK. I just had a thought. If boro is playing a very similar game to Hanzo, isn't Yuriko playing a very similar game to Alexcellent?
I would definitely be ;looking a ta boro and yuriko/finglove/idk scum team.
Posts well, but not very often.
VOTE: Vote borphil
I think he is scum, and out of my scumreads his flip would be the most informative.
PEdit: Zephyr, that's how moonlight plays. He is pretty paranoid.

[Randomnamechange]

What are VIs?

[Randomnamechange]

OK thanks. I agree that Zephyr and Tricks are suspicious, but I'm keeping my vote where it is.

[Randomnamechange]

I don't think they that Zeph and Tricks are a scum team. Even if they were both resigned to being lynched, they wouldn't have both given up at the same time, losing their team the game.

[Randomnamechange]

Baezu, havent other players been causing confusion in the thread? Why are you only calling it out when there are two easy lynches who are doing it?

[Randomnamechange]

This game has gone really quiet...

[Randomnamechange]

My reasons for my vote on Boro are basically the same as Tricks, and I could see scum playing this game in this setup.
I don't know why I don't have my vote on Trickster. Maybe it's because my scumreads don't really fit with Tr1ckster. Also, I think a Boro flip would be quite informative.

[Randomnamechange]

I have to say that, although he wasn't as much earlier, this is very much town Tr1cks. Valid points on Moon's meta as well. I'm really struggling to read those two.

[Randomnamechange]

There was a big argument involving you. The majority of players reacted to this. I basically have two sets of scumreads, and your flip will help decide which one I think is right.

[Randomnamechange]

Vote Finglove

They have posted in other Open games, but not this one. Lurking scum alert.

[Randomnamechange]

Please can people actually explain why they think im scum? It would be nice if people bothered to build decent cases.

[Randomnamechange]

A couple of things. 1) I wagon-hop. That's just how I play.
Anyone else finding it odd that Finglove's only two scumreads are the scumreads of the majority of players? Might be just me.

[Randomnamechange]

Baezu
Not_Mafia
BoroPhil
randomidget/Moonlight
Moonlight/randomidget (about equally on the town half)
4 Heads of Insanity (honestly, about equal to them, too)
YurikoJasmine
Finglove
Zephyrus
tman2nd
idk
Tr1ckster

Something like this. But it doesn't feel right. Best I have right now, off of my casual catch-up. I'll need to do more later.

Sorry, not really sure what this means.

[Randomnamechange]

My reads list, from town to scum:

Leaning town: Not_Mafia, Moonlight

Weak lean town: Boro, Baezu

Null: 4 Heads, The_Ascended (I find hydras pretty hard to read, but nothing in their posts has particularly alarmed me yet)

Leaning scum: idk (lurking), randommidget (lack of conviction in scumhunting), Yuriko (lurking, even taking V/LA into consideration)

Scumreads: Zephyrus, Tr1ckster (see previous post)

(Replacing out: tman2nd)

Sorry, but what does lack of conviction to scumhunting mean? Please can you show your examples. Similarly to The_Ascended, I start to get into my stride once we have one or two flips. I am starting to look at what certain flips would mean, but cant provide anything concrete yet. Also, it is slightly odd that you have more scum reads than town reads. And I think that your reads are very...conformist. If I wanted to stay low and not bring attention to myself those are very similar to the reads I would give.

[Randomnamechange]

Sorry, but what does lack of conviction to scumhunting mean? Please can you show your examples.

Why don't we take that post?

Similarly to The_Ascended, I start to get into my stride once we have one or two flips. I am starting to look at what certain flips would mean, but cant provide anything concrete yet.

Nobody can provide anything "concrete" day one, and everyone has more conviction following flips. What you mean is "I'm not happy sharing views based on such limited information", but we all have to do that to give us the greatest chance of catching scum. You don't get a free-pass at D1 just because you're not sure of anything. Nothing in that description shows why you should be behaving any different to the rest of us, if you are town. And now for some lacking conviction:

Also, it is slightly odd that you have more scum reads than town reads. And I think that your reads are very...conformist. If I wanted to stay low and not bring attention to myself those are very similar to the reads I would give.

This is the sort of lacking conviction scum hunting I'm talking about. Let's take that sentence by sentence:

1) There are four scum in this game, and I have two stronger reads and three weaker reads, which feels right to me. I'm not going to townread more people just because there's more scum in the game, I townread people when I think they're town.

Fair point, but just out of interest what was your read on tman?

2) Why not just say "your reads are conformist, and I think you're scum" rather than hedging with all of your careful language and not actually challenging me. Similarly, I'm not going to change my reads because some of them are similar to other peoples', that would be a) disingenuous and b) detrimental to achieving a D1 lynch and c) obscuring the fact that some posts are quite objectively scummy.

I didn't say I thought you were scum. I was thinking that it was worth commenting on.

3) I hardly think you've elevated yourself above the parapet this game. See also comments in 2) about changing reads for whimsical reasons.

I have already stated that I jump my vote around a lot. Not really sure what the point is here.

[Randomnamechange]

UNVOTE: borophil didnt realize I still had my vote here. Still thinking about where my vote should go.

[Randomnamechange]

Moonlight. You are complaining about Tr1cks ignoring arguments about him. Yet you think idk and Jasmine not answering means there isn't anything you can do.

[Randomnamechange]

I wish we could lynch both you and Tricks at the same time. Meanwhile, you should be considering me for a NK, because I won't rest until you're lynched with how you've been playing. And keep in mind that both teams might shoot me, resulting in me staying alive instead.

Good luck WIFOMing yourselves, scumfucks.

Calm down Moonlight.

If NM and Moon feel we can't get anymore out of this day (cuz of lack of activity and whatnot) we could just end it early. I'm kind of feeling like it's stalled and we need a flip to get it going again

This doesn't ring right. Why does it only matter if Moon and NM don't fell we can get anything out of the day?

I find Zeph's deviations from the more agreed-upon town and scum reads very interesting. Most of us put NM, Boro, and Baezu near the top. Also us and Moonlight. Zeph puts us, Baezu, and Moonlight at the bottom. No idea why he thinks we and Moonlight are scummy. Meanwhile, almost everyone puts Midget, IDK, and Trickster near the bottom.?

The majority of players have me in their top half.

Also, have fun providing reasoning as to how I would taunt the other team to shoot me if I was scum.

Because you were hoping to WIFOM them out of killing you in the belief that the other scum would also shoot you.

[Randomnamechange]

What wagon? Tr1cks is voting moon and Boro made a non-serious comment about them being on a scum team together.

[Randomnamechange]

Okay I'm a bit more into it now. First, elaborating scumreads:

randomidget:

• 40 and 47 are coattails fluff.
  
  These were in the first 50 posts. I wasn't exactly going to be building any cases at this point
  
  
• 102: Poor vote. Supposedly not reading isn't alignment-indicative.
  
• 120 is a bunch of fence and middle-of-the-road opinions.
  
  So I'mm scummy for having fairly standard opinions? That is very similar to one of the main reasons for voting Tricks and look where that got us
  
  
• 166 reminded me that 163 existed and was kinda lame.
  
• 276 came back from inactivity and...contrubites just about nothing.
  
• 402: "I think he's scum". Still no reasoning other than 276, which is just "I think he's scum" again.

I think a lot of my read on 4 heads was gut, which I should probably have explained. I'll admit my interactions with him have been weird

Welcome Glidderman and Nobody Special. I'm going to analyse the Night Kills later. I need to re-read to see who I want to lynch, but Tr1cks townflip works with a Zeph scumread still, and my ISO of him shows that I really wasn't paying attention in regards to how scummy he was playing. VOTE: Zephyrus Might as well get him to talk.

[Randomnamechange]

randomidget
Finglove
Moonlight
BoroPhil
Mr Glidder
4 Heads of Insanity
Baezu
Zephyrus
Nobody Special
idk

Least scummy at the top, most at the bottom. I really don't like the way idk is flying under the radar.

[Randomnamechange]

VOTE: idk
Sorry, forgot to put my vote here.

[Randomnamechange]

Fine. I'm happy with a Zeph wagon, but still seriously don't trust idk. Also, it is probably good to remember that most people were suspicious of Yuriko, so NS's slot is already suspicious
UNVOTE: idk
VOTE: Zephyrus

[Randomnamechange]

My town - me, Moon, Finglove, Mr Glidder, Boro, 4 heads/Baezu
My scum - Zeph with Baezu/NS, idk with 4 heads
I'm not 100% sure on the second team, but I am confident on the first one.

[Randomnamechange]

BoroPhil

,

Moonlight

,

Baezu

,

4 Heads of Insanity

,

Finglove,

Not_Mafia

,

The_Ascended

These are the people on Tr1cks wagon (blue = dead)
So there were two possible scum on the wagon.

[Randomnamechange]

Continuing with more thoughts of mine: it's unlikely that Tricks' wagon was completely scum-free, it was a perfect chance for scum to get major towncred in case he was on the other scum team, and I believe that Baezu's push on Tricks counted on that.

It's really hard to scumread her based on her early D1 play, but her D2 intro was simply awful. She should know better than regarding me confTown at any point, and that me not getting NK'd could simply have come out of fear that a Doc would protect me, so no one bothered to shoot me. She jumped to the conclusion that I must be scum because of my intro, which I can't find anything bad about. I was scumreading Zeph and being wrong about Tricks made me re-examine all my reads, but I reached the same conclusion: that guy's not Town in this one.

Speaking of Tricks, I believe that the formation of a townblock was a huge threat to scum, and it's part of the reason I had second thoughts on 4 Heads (Viomi hated the idea). And right now, a good townblock is the only thing that can save us after the flip and NKs.

My town block would consist of you, me, Finglove, Mr Glidder and Boro.

[Randomnamechange]

I wasn't the popular wagon at any stage though.

Since Zeph shows no signs of life, I'll play devil's advocate for him. The one thing I can find in his defense is his absence.

If I was scum, even if I had to go V/LA, I would try my best to check the thread once in a while to see how my buddy is doing. Even if I trusted my buddy completely to not let Town lynch someone who's not responding, I'd still hate to leave something out of my control.

Zeph and I are different people of course, but the lack of his presence unsettles me when it comes to reading him, despite finding his play very scummy.

(This whole defense is moot if he is cunning enough to be checking the thread while logged out though.)

He doesn't need to do that. You can select to not have it shown that you are online. Also, in Newbie 1488 he was a bit of a lurker and town.

[Randomnamechange]

Continuing with more thoughts of mine: it's unlikely that Tricks' wagon was completely scum-free, it was a perfect chance for scum to get major towncred in case he was on the other scum team, and I believe that Baezu's push on Tricks counted on that.

It's really hard to scumread her based on her early D1 play, but her D2 intro was simply awful. She should know better than regarding me confTown at any point, and that me not getting NK'd could simply have come out of fear that a Doc would protect me, so no one bothered to shoot me. She jumped to the conclusion that I must be scum because of my intro, which I can't find anything bad about. I was scumreading Zeph and being wrong about Tricks made me re-examine all my reads, but I reached the same conclusion: that guy's not Town in this one.

Speaking of Tricks, I believe that the formation of a townblock was a huge threat to scum, and it's part of the reason I had second thoughts on 4 Heads (Viomi hated the idea). And right now, a good townblock is the only thing that can save us after the flip and NKs.

I reckon the doc protected you, as you, the_ascended and nm were the obvious targets.

Moon if you are somehow scum this game I'll never forgive myself

VOTE: zephyrus

No one picks up on this switch from Moon being scum to moon being an extremely strong town read in one page when there suspicion on Moon starts getting them into trouble? Also diverting attention to Zeph by putting him at L-1. I smell diversionary tactics

This is a surprisingly quiet game. Thought there would be a lot more posts in 2 days.

Hmmm. Why would they keep you alive moon? You're essentially conftown and that's a great nk for scum. The fact that you're still alive combined with the fact that you pointed it out in that first line throws up a red flag for me all over the place. Why do you think they kept you alive? Also, what's with the rapid vote out of the gate? Man that whole post reeks to me. It seems like it's coming from over cocky scum that thinks he can't get caught... :/

VOTE: moonlight

Holy shit that was forced. You seem to be trying waaaay too hard to get rid of Moonlight. Was it because your scum-buddy changed your NK at the last minute?

I tend to agree with Baezu. (Hey, first time for everything )

VOTE: Moonlight

"Hi everybody, I haven't posted yet, but I agree, let's lynch the most town player here."

What even just happened?

randomidget
Finglove
Moonlight
BoroPhil
Mr Glidder
4 Heads of Insanity
Baezu
Zephyrus
Nobody Special
idk

Least scummy at the top, most at the bottom. I really don't like the way idk is flying under the radar.

Real convincing case there, midget. I might have to vote myself after that one.

I am still suspicious of Boro, but I agree I can't fit him with a partner at this stage. I'm happy with randommidget and moon as town, probably glidder as well. We all seem to share our strongest scum reads as Zeph and NS(yurikoslot) so should we go after one of them?

To be honest, I don't think it really matters who their scumbuddy is at this stage in the game. As no scum has died yet, we're still in a position where we need to lynch the scummiest player. Once there's a scumflip, then we can try looking through interactions to find the other wolf, but until then, it's just wasting time.

Moon if you are somehow scum this game I'll never forgive myself

VOTE: zephyrus

"I got shit for my vote, so lemme switch to a wagon."

I am here, but I seem to be having problems logging in.

Try clearing your cookies. Worked for me.

Initial thoughts:

a) Tricky was town. WTF
b) Scum took out the best two players by far. Pretty lucky not to go for the same one though.
c) Finglove following Tricky's dying wishes is odd considering how badly he played (though if he was sick I guess I can understand him not wanting to put the effort in)
d) But what is odder is he picks out a Tricky post from 470 (May 5) and ignores Tricky's last post - 739, 13 days later. Surely Fingy, if you are happy to 'happy to follow a dead mans suggestion for now', why not his last post?
e) Tricky did look scummy, but before we speedlynch Zeph, surely worth noting that he was actually the only person confidently townreading him. So maybe we should listen to what he has to say.

oh and Fingy, in response to 783 - I've had a scum read on 4 Heads for most of the game - see 322 for example.

a) This seems like a genuine reaction from someone who thought for sure Tricky was scum.
b) Why do you feel like you have to address the NK? Unless you're trying to figure out who would've wanted them dead, I see no reason to bring that up.
c)

Other name that springs out is BoroPhil. Tricks and Ascended got worried about him at various points, and I was scumreading him a while back as Glidder pointed out. Let me just iso him...

He stated that both Tricks

and

Ascended had a scumread on Boro, and also said he had a similar read on him earlier in the game. So it wasn't just Tricky.
d) Surely, Boro, if you had read, he was following not one, but

two

dead men's wishes, as well as his own wish. Just sayin'.
e) I agree that speedlynching someone isn't a good idea, but take a look at Zeph's post. At the risk of sounding quite rude, I think he's either scum or has one of the worst town plays I have ever seen.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So far there have been no posts from 4 Heads of Insanity or Zephyrus today. Let's get some activity from ya!

Now that I'm out of school, I should be able to make more posts. Sorry for the low activity Day 1!

damn that was a townie post. This more or less clears idk unless one of my other scum reads comes up with a good reason why they are town.

[Randomnamechange]

I really have no idea what is going on with this game's modding.

[Randomnamechange]

I think on Zeph we had me, moon, finglove, BAEZU (poss scum) and Mr Glidder who has only unvoted to stop an accidental hammer.

[Randomnamechange]

I hadn't voted for Zeph yet - it was idk. By the time I looked at it would have been hammer!

OK, sorry about that. I really think we need lurkers to post, as we can't get information on them.

[Randomnamechange]

We don't have information and we aren't getting information.
I think if we mislynch today we will have tomorrow 4 town and 3 mafia, which isn't an ideal setup. And if the worst comes to the worst, we could have 3 town and 4 mafia.
PEdit: K sorry must have missed that.

[Randomnamechange]

@idk my post was in response to boro's post about Finglove being keen to lynch Zeph. post 836. The annoying thing is my scumreads aren't contributing.

[Randomnamechange]

On that note, Boro was on that wagon too and he suggested a Baezu lynch instead of Zeph, so I'm

very

confident that there is exactly one scum whose username starts with B.

I just hope I've got the right one. >_>

Eh we lynch Zeph today then we see who is scummier tomorrow.

[Randomnamechange]

Boro, if Baezu is scum, can you explain how you imagine her D2 play making sense if Zeph is not her buddy? What did she have to gain by wanting me gone instead of Zeph?

I got nothing. I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if Baezu hammered Zeph though.

[Randomnamechange]

I say we lynch Zeph. I cannot be arsed to lynch Baezu right now. Decent post from nobody though. That does seem like a scumslip from Baezu on Finglove.

[Randomnamechange]

VOTE: Baezu screw it.

[Randomnamechange]

[Randomnamechange]

Not quite MyLo. If town pro they can get scum to kill each other off.
reino, I've posted more than the majority of slots. Come at me with something better than lurking and fence-sitting, which I haven't even been doing Day 2. In both games I have played I fence-sit Day 1. It is my style. reino would be looking town, but if I was being scumread as scum that is how I would play.
Pedit: finglove explained my MyLo point better. Oh well.

[Randomnamechange]

I am going to reread to find the other scumteam, but I am confident in reino/baezu.
PEdit: because we are getting hungry for blood boro.

[Randomnamechange]

Sorry but don't want to make myself a target for tonight and don't know how long till nightfall. Yuriko/NS is scum, and I'm fairly confident about this. Have to go and don't have time to pp
ost my reasons but will do if night hasn't fallen when I get back.

[Randomnamechange]

No lynch

To summarize; moonlight is town, I am town, finglove/reino is town. Everyone else is scum. Looks like fire scum were possibly trying to hit scum as NS was generally being scumread, Boro could have been either as opinions on him are varied. I am fairly confident both teams will try to cross-kill tonight.

[Randomnamechange]

Correction near the end there..."good town players" don't do that crap. Especially not when they're repeatedly told that it doesn't mean anything without flips.

Aaah, now we're talking. When did you catch me saying I consider myself good?

I used what makes the difference in this setup. Unlike other setups, what separates Town and scum is the knowledge of the alignment of ONE more person, not the whole list of players. So excuse me for trying to apply associative tells on a slot that I can't possibly see Town motivation behind. If it makes me bad, so be it. It's what I considered the right thing to do.

And I'm going to do it now too: I said that your buddy is either smart, or you're Town. I completely forgot that 4 Heads were absent on D2, and they were on Tricks' wagon too. It fits.

But too little too late, I don't expect to convince enough people and I'm surprised I'm still being townread by some to be honest. =/

I will always believe in you Moon.
So you think a 4 heads/rach marie + zeph/reino scum team?
For me this would mean a Mr glidder +Finglove/idk team. I think that Finglove + Mr Glidder makes more sense, but I have a stronger town read on finglove.

[Randomnamechange]

If only I had the ability to shoot every other player and win the game.

[Randomnamechange]

If only I had the ability to shoot every other player and win the game.

So, despite the fact that you have no basis for making a team of players, and despite every lynch so far has been a mislynch, why don't you explain how you came to those teams. If you're going to waste time trying to make associative tells, I might as well hold your feet to the fire and make you justify your reasoning. Go ahead randomidget: explain to everyone in the class how you came up with these teams despite absolutely no scum flips this game.

This is assuming Moon's guessed team is correct.

[Randomnamechange]

I wasn't buddying. I was saying that 'if moon s right then this would be the scum IMO.
I don't like the way that me moon and reino are the only ones really contributing today.

[Randomnamechange]

@Mod, please can we get a prod on idk?

It has been 6 days since he last posted and three days of those were night.
PEdit: Moon read my last post.

[Randomnamechange]

(Phone posting) @ idk Says the guy who just sheeped my town strategy. I'm hurt, truly. For the record, if moon is in fact scum, who do you think his buddy is and why?

If moon is scum mr glidder is his buddy 70%, you 20%, someone else 10%.

[Randomnamechange]

I'm not seeing scum motivation behind your posts. I haven't for the whole game. I just do.

[Randomnamechange]

Has anyone done wagon analysis? there should be a fair bit by now. Of course with it being multiball, that does make it more confusing, but still wagon analysis should help by now.

Yeah I was thinking about doing more of that. E3 2014 is kinda consuming my soul but I'll see what I can squeeze out.

You and me both mate.

[Randomnamechange]

Damnit I keep thinking RM means me -_-.
What do the numbers represent?
Also, I'm really not into the whole so scummy must be town.
Also, Zeph was being a VI. He wouldn't have done that in that situation.

[Randomnamechange]

VOTE: RachMarie
Anyone up for a wagon? From my POV, and I'm assuming Moon is town, I have a 80% chance of hitting scum. RachMarie is scum.

[Randomnamechange]

It's posts like this one above that make me townread midget. He just drew all the attention to himself with that vote after going along with Finglove's idea.

I'm going to sleep on this for now, hoping for a clearer head tomorrow.

I'm bored. I need blood. I really think town will rip itself apart by the deadline and a lynch might help. My hope would be we lynch scum and scum both cross-kill.

[Randomnamechange]

In this post I do MATH™. Should you dislike MATH™, it's spoilered for your convenience.

Spoiler: MATH™

The game is currently in 3:2:2. Assume the teams are A-scum and B-scum (doesn't matter which is which at this point). Also assume that all lynches and kills are random (which face it for this game would be an improvement).

• We can lynch.
  • We lynch town. Odds of this are 3/7. N3 is 2:2:2.
    • Both kills are cancelled. Odds of this are 1/4*1/4 (the chance that both teams picked the same target). Still at 2:2:2 for D4 - which is a dilemma scenario.
      
    • A-scum kills town. Odds of this are 2/4-(1/4*1/4). Now at 1:2:2 for half-night.
      • B-scum kills town. Odds of this are 1/3. 0:2:2 and both teams draw.
        
      • B-scum kills A-scum. Odds of this are 2/3. 1:1:2 into D4 and B-scum would have to play against their win condition to lose (guaranteed win or draw with A-scum).
    • A-scum kills B-scum. Odds of this are 2/4 (cannot be cancelled, as the other team won't be killing itself). Now at 2:2:1 for half-night.
      • B-scum kills town. Odds of this are 2/4. 1:2:1 into D4 and A-scum would have to play against their win condition to lose (guaranteed win or draw with B-scum).
        
      • B-scum kills A-scum. Odds of this are 2/4. 2:1:1 into D4. This is dilemma.
  • We lynch A-scum. Odds of this are 2/7. N3 is 3:1:2.
    • Both kills are cancelled. Odds of this are 1/5*1/4 (since A-scum has five targets while the B-scum have four). Still at 3:1:2 for D4.
      
    • A-scum kills town. Odds of this are 3/5-(1/5*1/4). Now at 2:1:2 for half-night.
      • B-scum kills town. Odds of this are 2/3. 1:1:2 into D4 and B-scum cannot lose.
        
      • B-scum kills A-scum. Odds of this are 1/3. 2:0:2 and B-scum wins.
    • A-scum kills B-scum. Odds of this are 2/5. Now at 3:1:1 for half-night.
      • B-scum kills town. Odds of this are 3/4. 2:1:1 into D4 and dilemma.
        
      • B-scum kills A-scum. Odds of this are 1/4. 3:0:1 into D4 and MyLo for town.
  • We lynch B-scum. Everything here is identical to lynching A-scum, just with all As and Bs reversed.
• We can no-lynch. N3 is 3:2:2.
  • Both kills are cancelled. Odds of this are 1/5*1/5. Nothing is gained.
    
  • A-scum kills town. Odds of this are 3/5-(1/5*1/5). Now at 2:2:2 for half-night.
    • B-scum kills town. Odds of this are 2/4. 1:2:2 into D4; this is also dilemma.
      
    • B-scum kills A-scum. Odds of this are 2/4. 2:1:2 into D4, which is either dilemma or scumwin.
  • A-scum kills B-scum. Odds of this are 2/5. Now at 3:2:1 for half-night.
    • B-scum kills town. Odds of this are 3/5. 2:2:1 into D4, which is either dilemma or scumwin.
      
    • B-scum kills A-scum. Odds of this are 2/5. 3:1:1 into D4, which is either dilemma or LyLo.

So, by chaining probabilities, we get this:

• We lynch
  • We lynch town: 3/7
    • No kills: 1/16 (2:2:2) [total: 3/112]
      
    • A-scum kills town: 7/16
      • B-scum kills town: 1/3 (0:2:2) [total: 1/16]
        
      • B-scum kills A-scum: 2/3 (1:1:2) [total: 1/8]
    • A-scum kills B-scum: 1/2
      • B-scum kills town: 1/2 (1:2:1) [total: 3/28]
        
      • B-scum kills A-scum: 1/2 (2:1:1) [total: 3/28]
  • We lynch A-scum: 2/7
    • No kills: 1/20 (3:1:2) [total: 1/70]
      
    • A-scum kills town: 11/20
      • B-scum kills town: 2/3 (1:1:2) [total: 11/105]
        
      • B-scum kills A-scum: 1/3 (2:0:2) [total: 11/210]
    • A-scum kills B-scum: 2/5
      • B-scum kills town: 3/4 (2:1:1) [total: 3/35]
        
      • B-scum kills A-scum: 1/4 (3:0:1) [total: 1/35]
  • We lynch B-scum: 2/7
    • No kills: 1/20 (3:2:1) [total: 1/70]
      
    • B-scum kills town: 11/20
      • A-scum kills town: 2/3 (1:2:1) [total: 11/105]
        
      • A-scum kills B-scum: 1/3 (2:2:0) [total: 11/210]
    • B-scum kills A-scum: 2/5
      • A-scum kills town: 3/4 (2:1:1) [total: 3/35]
        
      • A-scum kills B-scum: 1/4 (3:1:0) [total: 1/35]
• We no-lynch
  • No kills: 1/25 (3:2:2) [total: 1/25]
    
  • A-scum kills town: 14/25
    • B-scum kills town: 1/2 (1:2:2) [total: 7/25]
      
    • B-scum kills A-scum: 1/2 (2:1:2) [total: 7/25]
  • A-scum kills B-scum: 2/5
    • B-scum kills town: 3/5 (2:2:1) [total: 6/25]
      
    • B-scum kills A-scum: 2/5 (3:1:1) [total: 4/25]

Finally, I add together all paths that lead to the same results (for example, adding together all the 1:1:2 results as well as the 1:2:1 results, because we don't care which team in particular). I'll put it outside this spoiler box.

Anyway, these are the results of the MATH™:

• Lynch:
  • 3:2:1 = 48/1680 (2.86%)
    
  • 3:1:0 = 96/1680 (5.71%)
    
    
  • 2:2:2 = 45/1680 (2.68%)
    
    
  • 2:2:0 = 176/1680 (10.48%)
    
    
  • 2:1:1 = 468/1680 (27.86%)
    
    
  • 1:2:1 = 742/1680 (44.17%)
    
    
  • 0:2:2 = 105/1680 (6.25%)
    
    
  • All town insta-losses = 1023/1680 (60.89%)
    
    
  • All dilemmas = 513/1680 (30.54%)
• No lynch:
  • 3:2:2 = 1/25 (4%)
    
  • 3:1:1 = 4/25 (16%)
    
    
  • 2:2:1 = 13/25 (52%)
    
    
  • 1:2:2 = 7/25 (28%)
    
    
  • All dilemmas = 20/25 (80%)

Bolds

are best-case scenarios (defined as those than can lead to MyLo or LyLo D4).

Italics

are insta-loss for town (assuming people play to win condition).

Underlines

are dilemmas.

Looking at these numbers...well I guess whatever decision we undertake would be based on how you guys would treat a dilemma.

OOH I LOVE MATHS!
Also I was scum reading 4 heads and reinoe is being more useful today than RachMarie.

[Randomnamechange]

I had better teammates in that game. People who actually saw me for who I am instead of people who scumread every attempt of mine to win for Town.

I'm contemplating logging out and never logging back in on this site ever again. I feel so betrayed, so shunned for just being me that I cannot stand it. I've been wanting to matter, to have worth, to have something and instead I get this bullshit. Fuck people, fuck everything, I am so done.

VOTE: Moonlight

2 more votes for this torment to end. Please do it, then kill reinoe in the night. I'm done. So fucking done.

Moon calm down. I know you are town, you know you are town.
Why don't we just lynch the common scum read of Rach Marie.
Also, if we lynch town today, scum have no choice but to target each other. If one target town and the other targets the scum team then the scum team with two left wins. I am seriously tempted to lynch Moon on the basis that they are town. Never thought that that would happen. But I'll hold off for now. Please give your thoughts on my theory.
But for now,
UNVOTE:
VOTE: reino read the thread. Also, me and Moon aarent buddying. We are townreading each other and trust each other. In this situation we need two town players working together to get this out of this fucking mess. This game is rapidly getting less fun.
PEdit: I think it was more anger than whininess.

[Randomnamechange]

Reino douche level: 30000
Finglove and Mr glidder I am willing to work with you on strategy. I know one of you at least is scum but maths doesnt lie. My point is that scum must crosskill to have a chance of winning, assuming one team at least tries to crosskill. Here are the possibilities if we lynch town today and asuming both teams send an action in.
Scum shoot different townies = 2 scum vs 2 scum = draw.
Scum shoot same townie = 2vs2vs2 but both scum teams have that player as conf town.
Onw scum crosskills other hits townie = 2 scum vs 1 scum vs 1 town = no lynch, last scum from second team dies + one other scum = 1 scum vs 1 town scum win OR two scum team misjudge and shoot the townie and other scum shoot scum team leading to 1vs1vs1 which has been explained OR both shoot the townie scum learn who is town qnd two scum team win the game OR 1 scum shoots town and 2 scum shoots two scum leading to perfect scum win.
Scum both crosskill, work out who is other scum, convince town to vote them and win.
Crosskilling comes up favourably for scum in this situation. Too tired right now to explain what town should do in last scenario, will do later.

[Randomnamechange]

VOTE: No lynch
Just realized that my maths fails to take one thing into account - who the scum teams targeted.
I am not buddying Moon. We both trust each other and are trying to work together to get town out of this fucking mess.
I can defend moonlight from the things idk said, but that WOULD be buddying, and I don't know if he is coming back.
After tonight we can see if town can win.

[Randomnamechange]

Reino, you were swearing at Moonlight. We did the maths, it works out. So moon is town then? Lol

[Randomnamechange]

Hey there's three town and Four scum!!! Yep, no lynch is totally town driven. Hahahahahahaha.

Given how good a lynch would be for scum, I find it unlikely. Pretty sure some scum crept in behind my initial post. Speaking of which

Do you think we should be lynching at all?

I really don't know. I feel that regardless of what we do, we need a crosskill to have a chance.

Hm. The odds of at least one crosskill by no-lynching are 17/25 (68%), but dilemma is almost guaranteed. The odds of at least one crosskill by lynching town are 19/24 (79%), but we insta-lose unless there are two crosskills. The odds of at least one crosskill by lynching scum are 7/12 (58%), but if the remaining scum of the lynched team kills town, we also insta-lose.

If we lynch, we avoid dilemma and insta-loss with probability 8.57%. If we no-lynch, we do so with probability 20%.

Given this game's track record, I think we should defer to the numbers.

Vote: No lynch

What I fail to understand is why Glidder didn't reach this conclusion immediately. I think he is scum, but knows that this is the correct town play. Therefore, he wanted to keep a lynch on the table as long as possible, which he wasn't able to do after I pressed him.

I cant believe no one called me out for suggesting we lynch town...

[Randomnamechange]

It would take a scum to vote their own team for a lynch to go through. Also moonlight could ve lying

[Randomnamechange]

I am the vamilla townie. You are all lying; please love me.

[Randomnamechange]

The question of the day is is Moon lying?
You could be faking this moon.

[Randomnamechange]

VOTE: No lynch
Might as well move it to night phase in the hope something happens.

[Randomnamechange]

VOTE: moonlight
A draw is better than a loss.

[Randomnamechange]

IMO, every side played terribly.

[Randomnamechange]

Luckily glidder decided not to go with my insane gambit which was to look very scum, selftarget in the hope the other scum team shoots me as obv scum before realizing im town as no team would be stupid enough to shoot themselves and if we played it right could win.

[Randomnamechange]

Any chance to see scum QTs?

I'm okay with it.

midget played excellently. I wouldn't have pegged him as scum in a million years.

tricky was awful, I don't think anyone can be blamed for lynching him.

NM and Ascended looked town and were town.

Idk looked scummy, had we lynched him instead of baezu we might have had a chance.

worst town performance ever?

You, NM, and Ascended looked too townie to keep alive in my book.

I'm shocked moonlight was town. That's all I'll say about that. A draw is better than a loss. I did have 3/4 of the scum team pegged though. I wouldn't have gotten idk though.

You lost. Scum drew.

If anyone was at fault for this being a draw, it would be me. Night 3 Finglove said he wanted to NK either Glidder or reinoe, and I said reinoe. If we had gone after Glidder instead, this game might've resulted in an Ice victory! Sorry. :/

We went after The_Ascended N1 since they were town-looking, but had minor scum-reads on at least one of us (I think it was me, I forget), Boro N2 since we thought you were scum, and if not, we still be ridding us of a town player who had a scumread on us, reinoe N3 because we thought he was scum, and Glidder N4 because we thought he was scum.

So you totally missed midget's 1065? He wondered if I'm telling the truth, and if he was the last VT he'd know I was lying my ass off.

Yup. Damn.

If I had voted rm instead of you, would you have lynched him, or would you still have advocated the No Lynch?

I swear I killed ascended.

In other news, im putting up my wiki page on Sunday.

[Randomnamechange]

I'm pretty happy with my performance. I think the majority of players were townreading me for most of the game, but my scumhunting left quite a bit to be desired. I do have one question though: was it best to go for the draw in the end? idk, would you have shot me or moon?

[Randomnamechange]

@Moonlight, Mastin will probably have better advice for you, mine would be to calm down a little, even stepping away from the game overnight and sleeping on things if you need to, I meta'd you a little so I know why you had those reactions, not sure how feasible my advice is in relation to that, but that's my 2 cents.

Thank you. I'm not sure myself if I'll be able to apply such advice when things get heated in future games, but I'll be damned if I don't try to! =)

Anyway, post-game is typically where I do my teaching, and while I'm not sure how good it'll be given my knowledge (see above) of the game, I can typically still give a few helpful pointers here and there if you want them.

*shyly raises hand*

Here's an example from a past game of mine: I townread a player heavily. Someone chimes in that they disagree with my reasoning and provide their own. This causes me to look at things from a new perspective (while keeping in mind that that player might be trying to manipulate me), resulting in me having a null read on the first player after considering their points. A lynch on another player happens, it's a scum flip, and on D2 I figure out through PoE and an effort to get attention away from the D1 lynch that the player I townread is the lynchee's buddy.

This is why I say many times in my games that the most useful players to me are the ones that disagree with me. I tend to keep tons of possibilities in mind when a game starts, then I tend to focus on the ones I consider most likely while disregarding the rest, which results in tunnel vision.

The question is: how do I know when it's right for me to stop and start from scratch on a read of mine? Is there a way to do this without relying on another player for the fresh and different perspective?

You did this with our first game when you went after Tr1cks on Day 3 to be fair. But I guess I'll leave this to the pros.

[Randomnamechange]

So could have gone either way.

[Randomnamechange]

BTW I was wondering why I got NKed over stronger players too?

We thought you were scum.
Interesting that all players involved in the big argument day 2 were town.

[Randomnamechange]

BTW I was wondering why I got NKed over stronger players too?

We thought you were scum.
Interesting that all players involved in the big argument day 2 were town.

day 1