Mini Normal 2023 - Game Over

[Krazy]

I exist!

What's deadline?

[Krazy]

As a point of philosophy, with 13 player normal do we even lynch d1? I've still read nothing btw.

Thanks Gamma!

Here's your obligatory cat!

[Krazy]

Locke113

caught up and I missed nothing of significance. Feels weird replacing in on d1. Usually I'm coming in on 50 pages and I feel like I should be able to solve the puzzle.

[Krazy]

gdi I forgot again that doesn't work

VOTE Locke113

[Krazy]

So we're 13, what all does that leave as a possibility?

I still haven't reviewed this site meta in a while, but we're expecting something like:
~6.5-7.5? VT
~2.5? town PR
~3? mafia
~1? third party

I'm not sure it's actually optimal play to lynch today. I do remember this site seemed to have a hard on for no investigative, but even so, on the chance we have a cop, to have a strong wincon for endgame we would want 3+ result investigations. We're also right now looking at a game state where a third party killer, if they exist, would be more likely to hit mafia than a town-sided PR, if my guesstimations are anywhere near correct. I know every town ever always has a hardon for the day 1 lynch but I feel like moreoften all that does is result in early PR revelations and hurt town's endgame. If we actually have an investigative (for once) we would want to slow down the bloodshed and give them time to work. If there is no third party killer, we could even theoretically no lynch tomorrow, although I'm assuming town's bloodlust would make that impossible.

[Krazy]

Ohhhh, right, wiki says it's 14 player minimum for third parties. For some reason I thought 13 player was minimum for third parties.

So we scumhunt and do not lose a chance to lynch.

In that case....

[Krazy]

Garmr, can you please indicate three people, one you think is town, one you don't have a read on, and one who is scum?

[Krazy]

Hmm, multiple entries for scum. Disappointing. Welp, 2/3 ain't bad.

Good news though, Rob and popopopo, when this flips scum, you're conf town this game!

Vote Garmr

[Krazy]

[Krazy]

But guys, why don't you ask the important questions, like, who has the biggest epeen?

[Krazy]

How am I supposed to push when my fos ragequits by the time I wake up?

Between this and town self-voting I'm like about ready to siteflake again.

[Krazy]

re: Garmr, while we see this more often from town, I kind of feel like that's mostly because there's more town in the game. I wash my hands of the /out and the AtE in the return, so I'm sticking with my earlier read of Garmr as scum.

As a point of overall strategy, I'm not sure how much I want another claim today. I feel like I see a lot of games with way too many unnecessary day 1 claims which hurts town endgame. I'm kind of chuffed he claimed before there was intent to hammer. If he's not scum, he's lightning rodded way too much attention while we were still fairly early in the day, or at least it feels that way to me. We could be wrong on Garmr (although I don't really think we are), but he should not have claimed before intent to hammer, and we should not set a precedent that anti-town tactics will work. Otherwise we're just going to see more anti-town tactics used by both flailing town and scum and we won't be able to tell them apart.

After that, I'm thinking about Gamma and French. I'm playing with Gamma's vote on Garmr in my head. Gamma + Garmr team? It kind of looks like distancing, considering how quickly he was willing to jump to James. Both votes look weak.

I'm also playing with French in my lineup.

Vote: Gustavo

If Gamma's gonna bus I'll take it.

But happy to lynch Gamma or Robster.

Rob is probtown, so to me this reads like distancing between Gamma and French. Not much but there's not much to work with beyond that in this slot.

Scum Levels

Garmr -- 40% scum
Gamma -- 35% scum
French -- 30% scum

Baseline -- 8% scum

pedit: hi Rob! <3 u too

[Krazy]

lol Rob how is Gamma leantown?

[Krazy]

please don't self-vote, I think you were actually fair townread post-replace

How? There's two pounds of AtE for every pound of reads. I don't see how this slot is above 40% for anyone other than Rob, who apparently has decided that fake replace outs are town tells for some reason.

From the game Gus linked:

I'm pissed that's why i am replacing out so everyone who accuses me of replacing out tactically can fuck themselves.

Lock Laser Designator on Garmr

I have the clear from command to drop the bomb on this shit. Fire away.

[Krazy]

Having trouble between deciding to vote gus or james.

Gus is the bigger wagon

but at the moment James feels better.

Good to know that "is the bigger wagon" is a reason for voting someone in Garmr's book.

WHY DO I NEVER GET DAYVIG?

[Krazy]

Gus wagon has French, Gamma, and Garmr?

[Krazy]

I think Hiraki is looking at this thread and asking to be nightkilled, which isn't an unreasonable request. I mean I looked at this last page and want to claim bodyguard just so I eat a bullet tonight.

[Krazy]

>Checks thread
>Garmr isn't dead yet
>Leaves thread

Yeah sure town lynch Gus that seems like a great idea.

[Krazy]

How about town joat with 1 shot neighborizer, 1 shot protective, and 1 shot investigatoive.

Vague enough?

Now can we PLEASE lynch the fuck out of Garmr and then rob tomorrow PLEASE.

I’ve caught 2 scum so everyone else can save the lectures about how stupid it was for me to claim. I didn’t mean to but that post did slip out and so there isn’t any more shade casting on me by scum we can just move forward

Wait was this a serious claim?

Sorry I'm still getting used to site meta again, is one-shot neighborizor JOAT a "not joke" in a mini-normal? I thought you only saw this stuff in mini themes is why I ask. I actually ignored this because I thought it was a joke. Haha. We didn't... they didn't...

Did we really out a town PR after FUCKING GARMR FAKE REPLACED OUT?

That vein on my forehead is throbbing... need to... just...

Just close the tab Krazy... just walk away... just walk away

[Krazy]

tbh every time I see neighborizor anywhere I think it's a joke. Neighborizor joat just seemed like toppings on the joke-cake.

[Krazy]

Lock Laser Designator on Garmr

I have the clear from command to drop the bomb on this shit. Fire away.

[Krazy]

I do not understand why rob is on the table with 2 claims.

[Krazy]

I do not understand why rob is on the table with 2 claims.

I don't understand?

Garmr claimed VT and gustavo claimed JOAT. What does that have to do with Rob?

In what world does it make sense to take 3 claims on d1? It has nothing to do with Rob outside of the fact that Rob hasn't claimed.

There was nothing in Garmr's claim that should have made people re-evaluate, other than a bunch of NAI AtE. Yet somehow he has managed to out a TPR before going down. And now you want to out another claim.

[Krazy]

Vote BuJaber

[Krazy]

Alternatively you can think of it this way:

Do you think anybody in this game would not lynch garmr at lylo? I promise you even if robster flips scum if I live til lylo and garmr is there he'd be looking super sketchy to me. And if robster flips town garmr is d2 lynch anyway because it means robster has no information whatsoever and garmr's actions alone if we rekove robster from the equation don't look so good.

Garmr is dead man walking. If he's scum he won't endgame. If he's town scum will be forced to keep him alive. That makes their NKs suboptimal.

So no one else looked at this and thought BuJaber just hardclaimed scum?

No?

Okay I'll just see myself out.

[Krazy]

Alternatively you can think of it this way:

Do you think anybody in this game would not lynch garmr at lylo? I promise you even if robster flips scum if I live til lylo and garmr is there he'd be looking super sketchy to me. And if robster flips town garmr is d2 lynch anyway because it means robster has no information whatsoever and garmr's actions alone if we rekove robster from the equation don't look so good.

Garmr is dead man walking. If he's scum he won't endgame. If he's town scum will be forced to keep him alive. That makes their NKs suboptimal.

1. Gives self permission to lynch Garmr later, so that if Garmr is scum, he tries to make it seem like he isn't defending him. "Oh yeah, he might be scum, but not today guys."
2. If Garmr is town, gives self permission to lynch Garmr in lylo for win. "Oh yeah, I think he's town right now, but I'm okay with lynching him later when the game is on the line."

Considering I'm still thinking Garmr is scum considering how much resistance to his wagon there's been, I'm thinking it's 1 not 2, but either way BJ seems like scum here to me.

[Krazy]

BJ in iso:
Opens with a vote on Garmr, which he then moves shortly
Spends the first half of the day describing Garmr as scummy, while keeping his vote on other people
Agrees that the replaceout AtE was NAI
But then decides that Garmr cannot be scum because GR is defending him
Wants Garmr to stay in the game to be (mis)lynched (if Garmr is town) later (or because he thinks he can derail the wagon on Garmr again tomorrow if Garmr is his scumbuddy)

So there's two possibilities I see:
1.
BJ opened the day by trying to get Garmr lynched
BJ doesn't want to be a part of the Garmr wagon because he knows Garmr will flip town

2.
BJ is scumbuddies with Garmr and started with lowkey bussing
Now BJ wants to avoid lynching his scumbuddy while still keeping that distance

[Krazy]

@Dunnstral was Music prodded?

[Krazy]

1.
BJ opened the day by trying to get Garmr lynched
BJ doesn't want to be a part of the Garmr wagon because he knows Garmr will flip town

Come on its day 1... How does the second line seem remotely likely - scum wants to get town lynched why would they get off the wagon.

I can see why this slot is getting votes but it's starting to look like mislynch bait to me.

BJ or Garmr today plz.

[Krazy]

could you explain what mislynch bait is and why gamma looks like it?

Mislynch bait is when town players make poor arguments that make them look scummy.

I said Dr.D is mislynch bait, not Gamma.

[Krazy]

This day fits Gamma's town profile slightly more than Gamma's scum profile, although meta is bullshit and I still don't like his votes, particularly the Gus vote. This reads as Wrong!Gamma.

[Krazy]

Hi Music!

is u da maf?

[Krazy]

If we're not going to agree on a lynch let's compromise and lynch French/Pop. Their contributions to this game basically amount to nothing.

It's interesting that in a list of people whose "contributions to this game basically amount to nothing" he does not include Music, who has like 3 posts.

I don't know if this was a weak attempt at buddying or an actual deflection off an ally but BJ keeps looking scummier the longer this day goes.

[Krazy]

I mean you proposed a policy lynch on lurkers but cannot remember who the lurkers in this game are.

What am I supposed to do with that?

[Krazy]

Garmr are you drunkposting?

[Krazy]

lol dis guy

how are you still alive

why is this game still in day one

inb4 "is garmr drunkposting a towntell?"

[Krazy]

Popo is town because scum would not use that avi.

[Krazy]

List your top 3 lynchees in order please with reasons if the reasons are not in your ISO

popopo (I don't like the way he's leading my lynch, feels like he knows it's a mislynch)
GR (pretty much me sheeping James but w/e)
French (weak reading that is based off me vaguely remembering agreeing with your stuff on him but not being sure)
in case you couldn't tell I want popopo most

Can you expand on why Garmr and BJ are town?

[Krazy]

BJ is still scum but I have no traction and I don't want scum leading a CFD on Music.

Vote Garmr

[Krazy]

BJ, BJ, and Garmr.

[Krazy]

Unofficial VC (if each person had 3 votes instead of 1):
Dr.D - 4 (Gamma, BuJ, Gustavo, Locke)
Garmr - 4 (Gustavo, Locke??, DrD, garmr)
French - 3 (Gamma, BuJ, garmr)
James - 3 (BuJ, garmr, Locke)
Unrealseal - 2 (garmr, DrD)
Gamma - 2 (Gustavo, DrD)
Popop - 1 (Gamma)
BuJ - 1 (Krazy)

Downplaying my double vote on you and popo's triple on Gamma.

OK. So even by your own stupid game that's mean to spread the scumreads, you are trying to manipulate town perceptions.

We're back on this. Fuck the traction.

Vote BJ

[Krazy]

Just going to say I'm not voting Dr.D even if it means a no lynch.

Lynch garmr please.

Can you get on board for BJ first plz?

[Krazy]

[Krazy]

vote Garmr

I'm so ready for this day to be over.

[Krazy]

Or you could just stop responding while he's alive for the rest of the day. That is also an option.

[Krazy]

To be honest I haven't really been sring james, but that claim seems fake af.

[Krazy]

I mean even if this is real we just hammer anyway and then james gets to flip his biggest fos. I see no reason right now not to hammer.

Am I missing something obvious? Otherwise hammmering after my shower.

[Krazy]

Vote James

If you're real, shoot Garmr.

[Krazy]

I'm pretty sure if James was town he would have gleefully shot someone by now.

This is the silence of a scum lynch.

[Krazy]

Spoiler:

[Krazy]

I feel like most of the time, town eats itself alive trying to lynch potential busses. I don't know that Garmr is lock town, but my lynch pool right now basically is only [locke, Gamma]

Yesterday I kinda thought Gamma was town based on meta, but meta is BS and the reads look a lot worse after James' flip.

Also, and this is true, it's never a bad day to lynch Gamma!

Vote Gamma

ONE TRUE PARTY WAGON

JOIN ME POPO

[Krazy]

Yesterday I kinda thought Gamma was town based on meta, but meta is BS and the reads look a lot worse after James' flip.

What specifically looks a lot worse on Gamma given James' flip?

How do you feel about BuJaber and UnrealSeal?

BJ could still be scum, but I don't push him today based on Krazy's Theory of Day 1 Conditional Probabilities Related to Lynchpools (KToD1CPR), it just rolls off the tongue.

UnrealSeal strikes me as towny tbh.

Yesterday I kinda thought Gamma was town based on meta, but meta is BS and the reads look a lot worse after James' flip.

What specifically looks a lot worse on Gamma given James' flip?

I was wrong, thank goodness. Here’s where we are now:

Here’s where we are now:
Music (L-6): Locke
Gustavo (L-6): French
Unreal (L-6): Hirakl
French (L-6): BuJaber
James Brafin (L-5): Gamma, popo
Garmr (L-3): Garmr, James Brafin, Gus, Krazy (Maybe Unreal Seal?)

Not voting: I have no fricking idea.

I forgot I was voting James
VOTE: Gustavo
I feel more strongly on this rn

[Krazy]

The whole chainsaw thing was so stupid I mostly just try to ignore that part of the day at this point. It could be scummy, mostly it's just asinine though. I think forgetting his vote was on James is scummier.

[Krazy]

I think town rarely forgets who they have their vote on period.

[Krazy]

No, lack of interest in BJ has to deal with how I like to play Day 2 vs Day 1.

If BJ is scum, I have already found him. Great! Time to find the buddy.

If I am wrong on BJ, it is stupid to tunnel him all game. Boo.

There's also usually a math component here, but actually it doesn't apply in this situation.

Akari, join us. Gamma wagon has cookies!



Does Krazy wagon have cookies?

I THINK NOT

[Krazy]

Hi fam!

You guys want to know a funny story about occam's razor.

Originally, Occam's razor was actually a theological argument. For William of Ockham, it was actually his belief that "you shouldn't make shit more fucking complicated than necessary if a simple explanation will suffice." That's a direct quote to be sure. Anyway, for William of Ockham, he believed that this was proof in the existence of god. After all, if you posit the existence of god, then you don't need to worry about all the things that would be required to make the universe exist as the way it is. Simpler = better

But now atheists come along and say, "oh no, if we really think about Occam's razor, why isn't 0 better than 1? Why need one supernatural being when we can have zero? That's the true simplest explanation!"

So I get it. Different people view "simple explanations" in different ways depending on their premises, their presuppositions, and all that.

But let's break down why Gus is like super obvious town and his play makes total sense.

First of all, if he is scum, he basically gets solved as soon as literally anyone counter-claims an investigative.

Second of all, if he is town, he has no reason to out his inno. Because then his inno either a) get shot, or b) the protective role splits their targets, and Gus risks getting shot.

Third, Gus doesn't have to worry about proving himself, because tonight he can just neighborize someone and prove that one third of his joat claim is undeniably true.

So which is more likely...
A scenario where...
a) Gus fakeclaimed an investigative
b) The real investigative didn't counter-claim
c) He faked an inno and no-killed on the assumption there's a protective

or a scenario where
a) Gus is real
b) He has an inno, and he doesn't want that inno getting shot tonight
and c) He doesn't even need to worry about proving himself, since he can basically be confirmed tomorrow?

Sure, you COULD see scenario 1 as more simple. What is more simple is a question people have pondered for centuries.

But from where I'm sitting, Gus is obviously town and the votes on him would be better used finding scum kthxbai

[Krazy]

Yep, I've been incoherent on Gamma. That's one of the main reasons I want to flip it, I'm so preoccupied on the player meta that I end up going around in circles. I basically have no rebuttal because I really have been kinda all over the place there. Sometimes I wake up and think, idk, maybe today I shouldn't lynch gamma. But nope, then something happens, and I end up spending all day thinking about how good a Gamma flip would be. I don't know what to say. I just love me some Gamma flips.

Mmmm juicy, tangy Gamma flips.

[Krazy]

So you prefer to leave your d1 scumread till you've caught the rest of scumteam would that be a correct interpretation of what you're saying?

Let me tell you a story about Ythan.

Once upon a time, Krazy was a lot like Garmr, and Ythan was a lot like Gustavo.

Krazy ended up tunneling Ythan all day, and then lost the game.

Then, Krazy joined another game. And Ythan was also in that game.

And Krazy tunneled Ythan all game. And then Krazy lost that game.

So is Krazy actually Krazy?

Krazy decided that:
A) those games were not fun
and
B) Krazy played like complete shit

So, what did Krazy do?

Krazy made rules.
Day 1: Choose someone. Try to lynch them.
Day 2: Choose someone else. Try to lynch them.
Day 3: Reassess.

If you just tunnel the same person every day, the game is unfun, and you play like shit.

That is Krazy philosophy. You can lynch me for it if you think it's scummy. But I *do not* break the rules. My enjoyment of the game *goes hand in hand* with my sense of optimal play. If you are having fun, you will play better. If I tunnel the same person every day, *I do not have fun*.

[Krazy]

my gut feeling is that it's a distraction to make it harder to analyze

That's been my feeling on BuJaber

If your SR of me is based on your SR of BJ, why not push BJ? It seems like BJ would be scum to you regardless of my flip.

I feel like you are trying to goad me into going back onto BJ. When I am wrong on a slot, this is something I feel like I see scum do. "You SR that slot before! Why aren't you voting them now?" As if a town player is scummy for pushing new slots.

While also discrediting me and my case on Gamma.

Just going to play with Gamma + Akarin in my head for a while and reread some stuff.

[Krazy]

Vote Akarin

I was scumreading your slot before your vote on me. French was my #3 for most of yesterday. I just didn't really talk about him as much once he started replacing out because I wanted to evaluate your play on its own terms first.

But you put James at L-4, which is usually in my experience where scum bus, particularly when there are multiple wagons. I've noticed that scum tend to look at L-4 as a good bus vote because it is early enough on a wagon that if it goes down on a weak player it makes them look like conftown, but still not so far that it looks like a locked leading wagon.

With the way James was playing, if you knew he was scum, I think you would want to bus him early. And your case on me today seems more like a form of misdirection than an attempt to push a SR. I've been pretty clear that my move away from BJ has to deal with playstyle, and your entire case on me is that I moved away from BJ. Who apparently you also SR but also don't want to push? WTF

And now you're trying to discredit my thoughts on you as an OMGUS when I explicitly said yesterday that French was one of the scummiest players in the game. This feels very defensive.

[Krazy]

@Dunnstral, could you please update Post 1 for replacements?

[Krazy]

Is there a way to understand the case on Dr. D without requiring me to pretend I understand any part of 1242?

[Krazy]

Is this a musical chairs day?

Seems everyone has decided to ignore Akarin case.

Let's mix it up then.

Vote Music

[Krazy]

Holy shit Music is an alternate account of Myloninja!

[Krazy]

Mostly I feel like Akarin's case seemed phony more than the association with BJ being that strong. There are other reasons she might want to park her vote on me.

If I'm right about Music being a Mylo alt then that slot is town.

Vote Akarin

[Krazy]

Mylo has a night and day meta. If he writes a response more than two sentences hes confscum, if he only two sentence beetlejuices hes town. Its not the best meta to rely on but it is pretty easy to spot the pattern lol.

[Krazy]

I guess there's still room to wonder about setup spec. Man, are there chances of like "odd night (protective)" in this setup? Hmm. Gus, do you think you should say in case, even if you know you were protected last night, you might not be able to be protected tonight?

Out inno then?

Still, could be a bad idea.

[Krazy]

Why would you not be able to trust your results? If you were rb'd it would ne no result right. And I do not think there is any chance that a joat inno will be wrong in a normal or this setup is f'd.

[Krazy]

What the fuck

So Gus claims 2-shot Loyal Babysitter that targeted Hiraki and no one died. So basically... Gus either no killed or there is a second protective role. But his results on Hiraki mean all of jack and shit because he has no results on Hiraki?

But Gus is making it seem like he has meaningful results on Hiraki and has spent all day saying he's "playing against his win condition"?

What the fuck.

Actually I'm starting to find it unlikely there's a 2-shot loyal babysitter (that lied about being an investigative day 1?!) in a setup that has a second protective role. How the fuck was there no kill last night?

Vote Gustavo

Am I wrong or is this shit basically impossible now?

[Krazy]

So he had a way to confirm his role or get a cop result and instead he chose to protect his top suspect?!

WHAT

[Krazy]

HOW THE FUCK DO YOU GET FROM GUS'S CLAIM TO A FUCKING MUSIC POLICY LYNCH

Krazy you said you wouldn't tunnel, it's the rule, you ignore him today, you ignore him today.

WHY DOES HE MAKE IT SO HARD THO

[Krazy]

VOTE CONSPIRACY

I KNEW IT!

IS IT OVER? DO I WIN?

[Krazy]

GUSTAVO HAS TWO CLAIMS AND NONSENSICAL NIGHT ACTIONS

AKARIN THINKS HES REAL AND WANTS TO LYNCH HIM ANYWAY

AND BJ LOOKS AT THIS AND SAYS POLICY LYNCH TIME

AND SOMEHOW ONE OF THEM IS SUPPOSED TO BE TOWN

YOU HAD ME GOING THERE FOR A WHILE DUNN BUT I SEE WHAT WAS GOING ON

THIS ISNT EVEN A REAL GAME

[Krazy]

re: seal lynch

i wasnt feeling it too much but now im really feeling it

Where are you feeling it? In your loins?

[Krazy]

None of this makes any fucking sense to me, but popo both believing Akarin is town because of a really weird statement and then deciding UnrealSeal is scum... I don't know how he gets there. I don't get it. I'm assuming he's guided by his loins because I don't see how a brain reaches this conclusion. "I really fucking hate Gustavo so it makes sense other people would play against their wincon. Now I'm really feeling wagons on people who observe that it's stupid to play against your wincon." WHAT THE FUCK KIND OF REASONING IS THAT?

At this point though I think most of this town is thinking with their dicks, so maybe Seal is scum because he's the only one who is saying fucking anything that makes sense? I guess I can actually understand the points he's making and right now he's literally the only person in this whole game that I can say that for. In that sense he does stand out. But no, fuck that.

Vote Akarin

I CHOOSE TO BELIEVE that UnrealSeal is town, because I refuse to believe that the only person saying fucking anything reasonable in this town is scum. And I CHOOSE TO BELIEVE that Akarin, as town, wouldn't say she wants to lynch Gustavo while believing his claim.

I don't know what that makes popo.

[Krazy]

I mean tell the truth, haven't you thought of /outing from this game? I did not enjoy a lot of day 1 lol.

Today has been better... a bit.

Gamma pretty obviously replaced out because he was sick of reading Gus, Gamma's /out was before Gus's /out and seemed like it was directly in response to one of Gus's ragecaps posts.

Speaking of, I was thinking through if Gus just straight up no killed as scum, but I don't see why he'd keep the neighborizor part of his claim if it was fake. Like did he plan to fake a guilty tomorrow? With one scum down I don't know that he'd force himself into a situation where he gets autolynched even if he gets two free lynches. I've slowly resolved myself to the likelihood Gus is real and just... really was hoping to get nightkilled and in doing so take down Hiraki? His night action makes sense if he basically was planning to get nightkilled, I guess. He didn't need to worry about confirming himself because he wasn't going to be alive.

So it seems most likely that Hiraki was saved... and Hiraki being alive made Gus tiltreplaceout lol

OK so I'm with you that far now. But does that really point to Seal?

Akarin believed Gus's 'revised' claim really fast considering how little sense it made to me initially. If Akarin 'got' Gus's suicidal desires and hope to murder Hiraki, why would she want to lynch Gus? Whereas if she knew Gus was real, it makes sense she would work out the night actions quickly, right? Which implies to me that she knew Hiraki was the night kill target, because you have to make that inductive leap pretty quickly if you're going to believe Gus is real.

Seal wasn't saying he believed Gus, he was saying Akarin's argument was incoherent at that point in time, and I think he's right.

[Krazy]

I'm worried that losing town!akarin is too big a loss for us atm.

I mean, couldn't you make that same argument about Seal?

[Krazy]

Dude, come on, no one looked at Seal's post and was confused as to which was the real quote.

Hiraki for someone who calls other peoples' cases "garbage" you sure are stretching here.

[Krazy]

I like complaining to the mod about non-issues

Yeah I have no idea why anyone would ever change the text in a quote box, definitely not for comedic effect or to make a point

[Krazy]

Spoiler:

OK I guess I can't make you get this if you just don't want to get it.

"I disagree with you that his changed quote for Akarin is scummy."

Just gonna have to leave it there, this is getting really stupid lol

[Krazy]

are we honestly just dicking around until we find 2 replacements and decide on who to lynch??

Honestly I've been kinda wondering why Locke is just chilling on Gus through all this, but ultimately even that doesn't matter if no one on either wagon plans to budge (and it's looking more like people are buckling down than softening up)

[Krazy]

@Dunn, please prod Locke

He went hardlurk when these wagons settled and I don't know what it means

[Krazy]

HERE HERE HERE I'M BACK SORRY

Man I was waiting for the catchphrase and there it is. Today is a good day.

Uhmmm... so, how's the weather guys? Seen any good movies lately?

Seems like we can all just stick our fingers up our butts at this point cause all of jack and shit is going to happen with wagons until we get at least two replacements in.

[Krazy]

Welcome replacements!

FYI Titus your predecessor claimed 2 shot joat with loyal modifier and neighborizer:

That’s why I didn’t want to even talk about it. Why the fuck can’t people just stfu and and scum hunt. Why do we need to dissect what my actions are right now when we had a no kill.

Jfc

I’m actually 2 shot joat with a loyal modifier. Babysitter and neighborizer. I originally misunderstood my role and i thought if I was babysitting somebody and I was killed, I’d take them with me. That’s why I outed my protection part yesterday. After reading the person I’m protecting would die. Never heard of babysitter before.

So I decided to use that to my advantage thinking I was going to be NKd. I protected who I thought was scum knowing if I die and they die, town is in good shape. If just I die, scum is confirmed. Hence my little scattering of words at the end of my post.

“IIDLTNA” = If I die lynch the name above.

I can’t trust my results because it’s very possible town could have another protective role. That’s why I just wanted to move on and not talk about it.
[cut whining this quoted message]

[Krazy]

He had also previously claimed a 3-shot joat... so if you're going to make a third claim... uhhh....

please don't make my head hurt any more when I read this game

[Krazy]

Yeah, you probably should just be aware because when Gus changed claims, that's when the UnrealSeal/Akarin divide started, since Akarin wanted to lynch your slot through the claim even though she said she believed it. UnrealSeal wanted to lynch her for that position, and that's basically the leading wagons in a nutshell. Are you sheeping Hiraki or do you think Seal looks scummy in iso?

[Krazy]

Right, I don't want to misrepresent the Seal wagon actually. I think Hiraki is voting Seal because he thinks Seal would have targeted him (Hiraki) for a nightkill. I don't like that reason but the case on Seal isn't only because of his case on Akarin, that's just the part I focus on personally since the night kill speculation is messy.

[Krazy]

Spoiler:

[Krazy]

We should lynch Akarin.

Seal does not flip scum. Prrrobably.

My current theory is that he is trying to commit suicide.

I do not believe that scum fakeclaims masons when they are L-1. And minis have no third parties. If he was scum he would have just self-hammered. The only logical explanation is that he is town, and thought I would quickhammer since obviously I know the claim is fake.

Basically, we need to consider three scenarios here.
A) He is scum trying to muddy the waters.
B) He is town and is done trying in this game. His desire for me to be town lead and Akarin to be lynched in this case is genuine.
C) He is town and is hoping I will save him by accepting the fakeclaim despite the obvious risk to my credibility after he gets nightkilled and flips not-mason.

It could actually be a mixture of B and C, but it is most likely scenario B.

The simplest explanation is that he planned on me hammering immediately and that he is town, probably VT.
There is the small risk he is scum and just has massive balls, but this does not seem to match the rest of his playstyle as much as a suicidal claim like this as town does.
There is also the very small risk that he is scum and has actually given up, but again, if this was the case he would have just self-hammered.

[Krazy]

I mean, but then it wouldn't be so obviously fake. I think it was meant to be a joke? Masons with investigative and bulletproof? No one is going to take that seriously. "If I'm going to get lynched today, I'm going to do so in the funniest manner possible."

idk it makes sense to me but then, I am Krazy.

[Krazy]

Yet, you're going out of your way to defend this slot? Why? Why is it so important that Akarin be lynched when this just seems to be a scumclaim?

I always defend my townreads, no matter how stupid they may be or how anti-town they're acting. I see this level of suicidal behavior as a town-tell. People have given me shit for it in other games and I'm sure they'll give me shit for it in this game. But if I think someone is town, I don't want them lynched. I mean, I think Music is town, but obviously he's not really hunting. He's just a mislynch that gives us nothing.

If you think Seal has now produced too much WIFOM, you don't have to change your vote, but I don't see any reason we can't lynch scum today. Much better chances of that in Akarin than in Seal.

[Krazy]

With James there was no downside since if he was real he was actually vengeful and could simply shoot his top FoS. But beyond the vengeful, James' claim seemed explicitly DEFENSIVE. Miller was an extremely scummy claim and we were right for lynching him through it. James claimed miller after Gustavo had already claimed COP. It seemed to me that James had tailored his claim in response to Gustavo's claim. If he had been a real miller, he either would have announced it earlier, or he would have crumbed. Since he did neither of those things, the claim seemed fake, but with the PURPOSE being to keep him alive.

Conversely, Seal's claim here is only suicidal in nature. I am off his wagon, I know he's not mason, he can only expect an immediate hammer. But Seal's claim is very different than James's in terms of its apparent purpose, because whereas James's claim was meant to stay alive and avoid an investigative result from Gustavo, Seal's claim seems only designed to get lynched.

[Krazy]

If seal is not scum he is vengeful and we should still hammer. We (hopefully he shoots akarin) lynch both wagons and get max info.

This is probably the explanation that actually makes the most sense.

Actually, if that's the truth, I should just hammer.

[Krazy]

We do have time on the day cycle. If any of the replacements want to ask questions before night cycle we can give them time to get a grip on the thread.

[Krazy]

Also, right now the weather is good, but I don't really know how things are going to be tomorrow. Category 4 is coming in.

I guess I'll go ahead and just say

V/LA through Sunday

on the off-chance power is out tomorrow. I'm hoping it cuts west tho.

Obviously I will still be posting if the power is on since it's not like I'm going outside...

[Krazy]

Why did you tell music to hammer when our one shot investigative is still like 30 pages behind...?

How is it better to catch up tomorrow when they need to use their night action?

[Krazy]

Spoiler:

I know you were joking, but what's funny is that the hurricane was supposed to hit between yesterday and this morning, and people were surfing both yesterday and today. Thought they were crazy, but as it turns out the hurricane basically got destroyed as it pushed north and turned into a 'tropical storm'. Unbelievable, but maybe the surfers had the right idea all along? No doubt some dope bragging rights.

Anyway, what's the neighborizer results?

[Krazy]

I think Seal wanted to do a weird reaction test that resulted in his lynch rather than replace out like (take your pick from player list). That's why I was pretty sure he was town, scum self-hammers there rather than give me the hammer (or Music in this case, for some reason ignoring Una's request for time. Like, dude, you have to stop sheeping the position of whoever happens to be online when you are on). Obviously it was still hilariously anti-town.

[Krazy]

Basic premise -- there's no way there's 4 town-sided power roles in this setup, especially if there's masonizing investigative and a straight up protective doc
More debatable premise -- It's

unlikely

that we have a real doc, an investigative babysitter, and a third TPR in Dr.D.

Case v. Dr.D -- I actually cannot off-hand think of a scenario where Dr.D claims roleblocked in this game state as scum (he would just get 1-for-1'd if he was scum, which is an unlikely trade in this game state)
>Thus it seems likely there is a roleblocker one way or the other, either town or scum. At the moment I'm thinking scum but if DrD really thinks town I'm willing to hear his reasoning. Obviously if there is an unclaimed town roleblocker this increases the pressure on Una and Titus.

Case v. Una -- Una knew he would be under pressure today, so he claimed protective in self defense
>Una knows that Hiraki was the nightkill target n1, so he wants to say now it could have been Titus instead to muddy the waters
>PROBLEM with Una being scum -- if there is a scum roleblocker AND Una is scum, then there is no explanation for why there was no kill n1 if Una is scum, as scum would block Gus and kill someone else (probably).
>While Una has high motivation to be scum fakeclaiming protective, for the moment let's say this is not the least plausible claim

Case v. Titus -- Gustavo lied day 1, changed his roleclaim, neither night action makes sense
>Loyal babysitter would only kill Hiraki if Hiraki was town, and do nothing if Hiraki was scum, but Gus (an experienced player) insisted he 'understood the role'
>Gustavo claimed an investigative TPR because he actually wants an investigative counter-claim (if there is a real town investigative) so that roleblocker knows who to target (assuming scum roleblocker)
>Titus targets Garmr instead of Akarin, who almost certainly should have been the target last night
>Scum motivation -- fake save on Hiraki leads to mislynch on UnrealSeal, real role is scum neighborizor, threw in loyal modifier to 'buddy' Garmr
>High scum motivation to no-kill night one since that produces maximum wifom, either he being saved, or claiming saved on Hiraki

It seems likely Dr.D is a real TPR because he has no clear reason to counter-claim as scum here
If we accept Dr.D is real and was roleblocked, then there is an as-of-yet unclaimed roleblocker, likely scum

If there is a scum roleblocker, it is not unlikely that we have a real doctor and whatever TPR DrD is.

The simplest explanation at this point is that Gustavo/Titus is a scum neighborizer, they no killed n1, since they know they have a roleblocker, and wanted to either seem to be saved by protective or to have saved someone, either way seeming to 'confirm' them as town.

Gustavo/Titus being scum explains why:
-Gustavo, a fairly straightforward player, lied about his roleclaim
-Why the night actions of both Gustavo and Titus, experienced players, make no sense [they have a scum roleblocker, and no-killing with a roleblocker while a slot has claimed TPR increases wifom and uncertainty]
-Why Gustavo ragequit when he didn't become the unquestioned town lead after no-killing
-Scum team including a weak PR (neighborizor) and a strong PR (roleblocker/jailkeeper) makes sense if town has 2+ PRs, one of which being a real doctor, the other being Dr.D

So if one of our currently claimed TPRs is scum, at present I believe it is most likely to be Titus. At the moment, I find it unlikely we have three real TPR claims.

This makes the most sense to me at the moment:

Vote Titus

[Krazy]

OK. Let's try to make sense of this mess.

First, your setup spec seems kinda weird BJ. Hiraki says he RB'd Dr.D and Dr.D says he was RB'd. I don't really see a strong scum motivation in either one of those slots. Hiraki was already in a position of strength since he was 'saved' by Titus's slot. How the f do you get ascetic or strongman out of that? It's like you're intentionally making this already convoluted mess even more convoluted than it needs to be. And even then, how do you get no lynch out of that... wtf

Right now my main problem is that Titus's claim still has so many massive holes. But Una definitely has the most scum motivation here, since his slot was definitely going to be under pressure today. If we believe Hiraki, which I do, then Una's claim seems likely to be a scum survival tactic. Doctor is the easiest fakeclaim because it is totally unprovable, particularly when there is already a claimed save on Hiraki.

Vote Una

[Krazy]

You're still pinging me. Your reaction to this whole thing is weird af. And your reaction to Gustavo's revised claim was weird af.

>Gustavo changes claims
BJ: "Let's policy lynch Music!"

>the thread becomes an episode of "Maury"
BJ: wtf guys Krazy isn't pushing me anymore scummY!!!!!!

That being said, there's no way you defend Una this transparently as a buddy. And there is a plausible chance you're just a lost sheep, whereas Una's claim seems very survivalistic to me.

[Krazy]

Locke was in my lynchpool day 2 and Una has not improved my read of the slot. You have it backward. I was willing to ignore my suspicions of the slot because the doc claim didn't make sense for scum if they have a roleblocker. With Hiraki claiming townsided roleblocker, there's no reason to think scum have a roleblocker, and there's no reason to ignore my suspicions of Una's slot.

[Krazy]

One of Titus and Una is playing the other and it's hard to tell which.

[Krazy]

Townblock is Hiraki, Garmr, Music, DrD

PoE leaves Una, Titus, Akarin, MwNN, Bujab

I think it's likely there's one scum among the claims. I have serious problems with Titus's claim, but for the moment I'm thinking the scum fakeclaim is Una, which means there's only 33% hitrate among Akarin, MwNN, and Bujab. All three of those slots seem scummy for different reasons to me, but two of them seem like they have to be town... somehow... (sigh)

Almost every TPR is out of shots and Una will just abuse town with wifom if we leave it alive.

[Krazy]

I might be okay with a BJ lynch today actually

[Krazy]

Vote Bujaber

[Krazy]

Townblock is Hiraki, Garmr, Music, DrD

PoE leaves Una, Titus, Akarin, MwNN, Bujab

Do you prefer colors?

These never change:

Hiraki, Garmr, Music, DrD

Serious problems with each of these slots:

Titus, MwNN, Akarin

Best solve:

Una, Bujab

[Krazy]

Clearly you were not in espeonage's game. I am getting a lot better at spotting vts with town's syndrome. When a claim makes no sense but has no scum motivation, and there are no third parties, it is vt with town's syndrome.

[Krazy]

Bujaber is seriously pinging me. This is a good wagon.

[Krazy]

That depends on who you RB.
Una should be lynched at lylo+1 if not killed by NK.

You're my 5th lynch preference hiraki. You're in the pool by PoE but I don't think you're scum currently with the info we have.

Lynching akarin drd noname and krazy in some order before you.

Order that makes the most sense is krazy > Akarin > noname > drD > hiraki > music.

This is all assuming titus, una, and garmr are town.
Prove that's wrong without and I'd be happy to reevaluate.

Unlike krazy, akarin and drd your posts don't read like someone with an agenda. I don't know why you believe lynching una makes sense.

Hiraki and DrD are both town and he's not even considering Titus. Music before Titus? Are you kidding me? HIRAKI before Titus? GTFO

This guy is scum.

[Krazy]

It's not that Titus is scum. It's that there's no reason to be confident Titus is town. But there's about a billion reasons to see Hiraki as basically locktown at this point. This is a scum lynch order.

[Krazy]

I might get lynched, we might lose, I may be wrong about some of my reads but to not give me credit for the James lynch is some severely unfair shit. Borderline evil.

Look at it flail

Lynch it

[Krazy]

Okay.

I'm a town-informed hider.

I have confirmation from the moderator that Hiraki is a TPR.

I've been behind Music every night.

When there was no kill night 1, I really was unsure that Hiraki was the nightkill target, since scum might have thought the hammer cleared me. Maybe not, I wasn't overwhelming townread, but for some reason I've gotten a lot more shade post-hammer, which I kinda think is related to scum missing their shot on me. In any case, I think scum were pushing on Hiraki's misguided read of Seal based on his assumption he was the nightkill when I actually think I was more likely the target. I had been townreading Seal since d1 and the push on him, while town-led, was scum fueled. His claim screamed VT. I know my reaction was weird but I didn't want to shade Hiraki since I knew he was town, but I also felt pretty strongly he was wrong. I tried to unload the wagon without claiming... that has not worked that well for the last few weeks.

I have relatively high confidence in Bujaber/Una as the scum team at this point. Either one is fine today, but Una is off my wagon so rip me I guess.

[Krazy]

? Did you? I don't see it and I'm pretty sure Dunn won't

[Krazy]

I don't have mod confirmation Music is town LOL, I just know he never gets nightkilled

[Krazy]

Wow

[Krazy]

Oh well, this is fine, Hiraki gets confirmed, lynch Una tomorrow.

[Krazy]

Why did you hammer when Garmr had said he thought he unvoted anyway? We had 8 days left...

[Krazy]

Yeah I didn't say Weak Hider. I said town-informed hider. Not the same thing.

You didn't think you might ask me about what you thought was a slip before hammering?

[Krazy]

Well, as tilted as I am over the hammer, it was still really fun playing with you Akarin.

[Krazy]

Town-informed is something you get with your role pm, it is not a night action.

There's a large-normal I'm moderating in sign-ups. It's a pretty juicy setup, I recommend highly.

[Krazy]

Review thread for the pre-designed?

GG all, town played well.

[Krazy]

Gunsmith claim was fake?

[Krazy]

oh nvm you just didn't include it in role list

[Krazy]

Do you guys think my fakeclaim (Town-informed Hider) was implausible from an objective pov? I feel like I still have a hard time understanding what does or does not make for a plausible fakeclaim in this site meta. Like what am I supposed to do when roles sound like "loyal neighborizor"... I kinda went out of my way to make my fakeclaim sound more convoluted just because it seemed like every claim was weird and limited but that really backfired.

[Krazy]

I wish he hadn't said 3-shot bulletproof, I would have claimed mason if he hadn't made it totally unbelievable

[Krazy]

I guess optimal day 1 would have been to try to lynch Gustavo through his claim, but I kinda feel like there's no way I anticipated town having this much power. I saw three goons and thought this game was going to be based on playing around Gustavo, I don't see any way I anticipate three other fairly strong TPRs with what we had.

[Krazy]

It's mostly just me putting up gifs of busses

[Krazy]

Gamma why did you abandon me anyway

I obviously needed your help with the fakeclaim