Mini 1501: We're On A Boat! (END?! results inside)

[fferyllt]

I'm not in a hurry.

[fferyllt]

I was willing to compromise-lynch her yesterday on the basis of SpyreX' read. Would be very reluctant to make that kind of compromise on a town read. So no, not particularly townreading her.

[fferyllt]

I'm having to remind myself that you're now the player I most wanted to lynch yesterday. :/

[fferyllt]

I know from our one prior game together that bad reads plus heavy pressure happen in your town game, but doing that accidentally as town leaves room for purposeful mislynches as scum.

I'm sure you know of a way to discern between the two possible scenarios. Don't let me down.

I'm bitter about the ABR lynch and my hand in it, and I want to blame it all on you.

I'll probably get past that in a few hours.

[fferyllt]

I'm bitter about the ABR lynch and my hand in it, and I want to blame it all on you.

I'll probably get past that in a few hours.

Not sure if you meant that as a joke, but given you had an entire nightstage to get over that, I don't think the proclaimed sentiment that your bitterness will be over in a few hours is genuine.

A joke with an undercurrent of truth. Interactions are usually how I shake off concerns if they're misplaced.

[fferyllt]

And, that was an acknowledgement that my concerns have at least a partially flawed basis in that I'm not happy with my own thought processes and decisions right before nightfall.

[fferyllt]

I find your self-criticism misplaced, given the circumstances of the lynch.

I provided pretty compelling arguments, I forced you into that specific compromise and time was running out. The only alternative you had was a no-lynch. The only ones who really are to blame for that lynch are SleepyKrew, Aeronaut and Albert B. Rampage as far as I'm concerned.

Blaming me would be a more logical thing to do if you don't think the Albert B. Rampage lynch was called for.

So fferyllt: why are you so hard on yourself?

I didn't think the lynch was well supported and I would not have voted him outside the context of preventing no lynch given the cases presented and my own read of the slot while SK was active. As usual IME, a last minute compromise lynch wound up on a town player. I'm never happy about mislynches.

As for hard on myself, that's par for the course. It's what drives improvements.

[fferyllt]

So what would you improve exactly? Let's assume we go back in time and we find ourselves right back in that situation. What would you have done differently?

I would have argued against the lynch more. I didn't put a lot of time into that because the slot was basically inactive.

Also, feel free to answer me question to Yates, as I noticed you agreed with his line of thinking.

I agree with the conclusion. I'm not sure about the line of thinking.

If I had asked this question, I'd prioritize whose answer I most want, because whoever answers it first takes a little heat off later answerers.

So, I'm asking you if you want my answer first before I answer you.

[fferyllt]

I think she's town.

What's your read of SpireX?

What's your read of CTD?

[fferyllt]

I'm pretty sure CTD is going to want to lynch Plum unless his thoughts have changed significantly since day 2.

[fferyllt]

He didn't?

Spoiler:

I just can't get back into this game. Hopefully, an SK replacement can breathe new life into it.

I'm still not okay with a CDB lynch.

notscience, stop looking scummy, your antics will possibly halt this wagon on scum. Thank you for your understanding.

I didn't really see this as scummy antics. Antics, sure, but more the "let's make something happen" kind. The "whoops, didn't mean to put him at L-1" take-back is more problematic to me. I don't really understand why you'd object to your #1 suspect being put at L-1.

unvote, vote: Plum

With a little more than a day until deadline, we should either force a claim out of CDB and go from there or work on a viable counter-wagon.

I obviously prefer option b.

I don't think an SK wagon based purely on his flaking has a lot of legs, but I'm not generally opposed to his lynch if ABR doesn't start putting in effort. I think Plum is more likely to flip scum.

Fuck. I'm so sorry. This isn't fair, I'm not going to have enough time over the next few days to catch up with this. Particularly sorry to CTD 'cause at least I've completed games with some of the others here.

Mod:

Huge apologies. It's best if I request replacement. Sorry for not manning up and recognising as much sooner.

Wow. Dropping out as one of the leading wagons 4 hours before deadline.

Obviously not shocked about the drop out, but good grief that's fucking dismal.

A CDB lynch is possible, but he will still very likely flip tow

n (even more likely with the request to be replaced).

Maybe. The last person who requested replacement at the 11th hour in a game of mine was scum.

Given my history with CDB, I don't see him pulling this as scum

.

[fferyllt]

I had a strong independent town read on notsci from the outset. I was unsure of SpyreX because I felt like he was aggressively buddying me during the first few days of day 1 and it eventually made me a little paranoid. CDB actually defused that with the kuribo flowchart, but I recovered the town read on my own because the back and forth bouts of paranoia between notsci and SpireX looked town-on-town. Whether a notsci town flip actually points strongly to town SpireX may be debatable (I say it does point that way), but the more important consideration to me is what would scum think? Continued or increased paranoia between those two could help increase the in-thread noise level. And the confirmation of notsci-town, given notsci backed off his own scum read yesterday makes SpireX's concerns about the neighborhood look even more like town paranoia.

I've agreed with many of SpireX' reads, with the exception of CDB and notsci. Plum for me is more of a null but that's probably in part because I devalue VCA a little.

[fferyllt]

Yates, I would also like to see your cases.

[fferyllt]

Garmr is town.

How confident are you on this read?

Would like to see those cases.

[fferyllt]

Would like to see those cases.

There's plenty of time in the day for that. OR - Plum gets hammered, flips scum, and I can spend my time building a case on someone less obvious?

I'm not interested in hammering without more input from some players, including you.

But, I am interested in hammering.

So, cases probably suit your interests?

p-edit I'd love to read whatever it is.

[fferyllt]

So, cases probably suit your interests?

It's possible I'm posturing, yes?

The last time I decided I like you, you were scum :/

[fferyllt]

The last time I decided I like you, you were scum :/

What can I say? I'm a likeable guy regardless of alignment. Unless I'm hunting you. Right, Plum and Garmr?

So nu, why are you hunting me?

This post seems pretty inadequate given the game state.

[fferyllt]

It's my way of asking you for a defense and maybe a case on someone you think should be lynched today.

[fferyllt]

A defense against what, exactly? I've said all I think there is to say to CTD's points - if you disagree, kindly point out what, if anything, I should address about his case that you'd find relevant. Peabody is convinced that I'm scum because apparently all the people I've ever suspected in this game are ether flipped Town, people he's Townreading, himself, or 'easy targets'. He manages to make that basically the entire game, which seems to me like a noise/signal interpretation issue on his end. Yates suspects me because I was voting town-Brian at the end of Day 1 and him at the end of Day 2, and was off the ABR wagon, which was also on Town (and would gladly have joined it in the interests of not no-Lynching had my access been cooperative). I can't tell why he mentioned Garmr and Peabody along with me but not, say, Grimgroove or CTD (voting Town at the end of both Days). I am legitimately not sure what his case on me could possibly be, but he's acting like it's a whole lot and making a big deal about how he's hunting me.

That's a defense.

You thought that CDB's meta examples of similar play as town to his play in this game were invalid. What made them invalid to you?

[fferyllt]

I'm not a he.

[fferyllt]

Let's worry about it today. It's likely that at least one opinion won't get expressed if we save it for day 4.

I have some concerns about Garmr. He's not striking me as scummy, but there's something off in his play.

[fferyllt]

If discussion doesn't pick up I'll vote sometime tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

Garmr's reaction to the 2nd kill on day 2 bothered me.

The main problem I have with Plum's play is that it seems to have no objective. Not in a town wandering around lost way, but more like which wagon went through on day 2 didn't really matter.

I dunno. Her play style is hard for me to process.

Intent to hammer

[fferyllt]

You can hammer now. fferylt

You don't want Plum to have the opportunity to claim?

[fferyllt]

Why did you choose Grimgroove to track?

[fferyllt]

So you were leaning town on Grimgroove/YYR on day 1 leading up to the Brian lynch.

Sorry for the inactivity. Didn't manage to get a post in Friday afternoon, Friday night/Saturdays always bad for me because Jewish Sabbath. Aaaaaanyway.

Plum, thoughts on Brian lynch?

Better than YYR/Grimgroove (have skimmed ahead); Brian is somewhat scummier to my reading (esp. given Grimgroove reads Townish to me). May be the best viable option, especially given that the chances of him looking much better and not being a constant is-he-or-isn't-he debate as the game goes on don't seem particularly high, either.

Pretty meh on Peabody, to be honest. Grimgroove feels great - high, but super proactive in a catchup read. His scumhunting drive feels pretty convincing. It's something that feels lacking in Peabody's. Peabody asks a few questions little conviction; he notes a lot of people, often in the form of questions, but I'm not sure what he thinks of anyone but the couple of people (fferylt and SK, surprise surprise) he thinks look at least a little Town.

You don't seem too upset the wagon youre on isnt taking off anymore. Has anything changed about your read?

Not particularly, though I don't feel extremely confident about this game overall. I certainly didn't have time or energy this past week to do a very hard push. I really don't like the notion that a strong player shouldn't be lynched early because his scumhunting could pay dividends. The longer a strong player stays alive the more he can do for his team, but that goes whether he's Town or not; a strong scum player alive Day 3 and 4 in a game like this can be a very very dangerous beast. I didn't say much against it at the time - somewhat demoralized, I guess, and a difference of opinion that was rooted in a theory disagreement seemed unlikely to sway fferylt, for instance. I thought the wagon might yet have something in it. That's certainly not the case now. Blah.

Going back over stuff, Peabody's second post of catching up is more of the same.

I don't want to waste our Day 1 lynch on a miller claim. It robs us of information for day 2. Scum can easily pass on "Yeah, this lynch should happen," instead of contributing in a meaningful way.

Also, also,

this

. Peabody, do you have a read on Brian? Have you tried to read him? At all? Your catchup notes list him once, and that's to say you're ignoring the Miller claim in reading him. Passing on trying to read him given the situation seems like even less meaningful contribution and much less accountability than the situation you describe.

I did some reminiscing about the good old days and realized that I actually replaced into a game with Spyrex and Plum once (the latter being part of a hydra) where they were both scum and I correctly read the former and was completely snowed by the latter. I'll try to find the time to reread it. Did a very cursory glance of the two games Empire linked and don't feel confident in forming a full meta yet.

I remember that game! I actually reread it around when I came back to the site shortly before this game because of the fond memories

Klaxons here - Blank 'explanation questions' on are the easiest to ask. Scum prefer them.

^5

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Peabody

Then, based on the Empire flip and after finding he didn't go anywhere on day 2 you're now scumreading him.

Hell yes.

Let's see, quick look at Empire, plus votecounts and other stuff as necessary.

Spoiler: Empire on YYR/Grimgroove and Grimgroove/YYR on Maestro/Empire

Lists him under scum initially but never votes him.

YYR: Very weak read here, but I didn't like his cursory mention of the miller claim when he entered the thread in #57. Aside from that, the attacks he's given on Kaze just feels like he's hitting things that look bad on the surface but not aren't actually scummy. Still waiting on more content from him though.

ffery's case is probably a way more eloquent explanation of what pinged me about YYR but the dude's getting replaced so hopefully there will be more data from that slot.

Jesus christ, I just read through Grimgroove's posting on page 29 and what the actual fuck did I just read?

YYR was under potential pressure from the time Empire replaced in (pretty sure YYR replaced out only slightly afterwards. Checking, CTD had a vote on YYR at the time Empire posted his reads/catchup thing and voted, when I think the Spy had two votes).

Didn't get much out of the catchup. I'm still not getting where everyone is getting a town read on Brian. The SK/Smudger back and forth made me a bit more comfortable on SK, but I kind of just skimmed through Smudger's post. Still like my vote where it is.

What do you think about the Maestro wagon?

Lack of contribution is certainly anti-town, but it doesn't feel scummy unless the guy has a history of it as scum. Feels like a safe wagon especially when pressure didn't seem to work last time.

Do you feel that way about all of the votes?

Yes. None of them look like they're going to commit to that wagon for the long term simply because Maestro hasn't done anything. Someone who's on the wagon is free to correct me.

Maestro was neither, I was genuinely surprised when I saw his "waaaaat"-post. Felt like a post of some out-of-game-observer.

Empire (still no read at this point, so he still is an option)

I'll read up on Empire specifically now. Spyrex and fferyllt pulling it gives me faith.

@ferryllt: my lynchpool is SleepyKrew - Plum - Empire and given his behavior from last night, well, I can't say I'm liking Brian all that much anymore. But SleepyKrew is on his wagon, which gives me enormous pause, and somehow I would understand that a miller is demotivated at a stage like this.

I've just ISO'd Empire and I have to say: it's difficult not to be impressed.

I don't see what you mean by him not scumhunting or townhunting. 423 blew me off my socks in that regard. The level of analysis shown there is just how I would like to have done it.

And in 411 he provided a perspective on the miller claim I hadn't even considered before: pre-game scum QT-talk. It's true, scum could have devided this plan, and who better to perform it than Brian Skies, the newbie nobody will suspect of having thought of such a thing?

I can't see Empire-scum. I'm looking at Lolwagons' and Spyrex' ISO now to see what case he's got against him, but from what I've seen Empire did attack Spyrex, making the latter's vote suddenyl look quite opportunistic. This could be a blitzwagon, with a lack of town-consensus, that Spyrex is trying to force through on character rather than on argument.

It appears I inadvertently entered the Champions League by joining in this game. Slowly starting to feel this is all going over my head.

That said: I prefer a Brian-lynch over an Empire-lynch right now. 411 is an eye-opener and Brian's latest behavior fits that scenario perfectly.

[regarding the late wagon on Empire]

Empire, no, not feeling it, sorry, you'll have to look elsewhere for support for that one.

Spoiler: Empire on CDB and CDB on Maestro/Empire

Empire lists CDB under null initially.

CDB: Liked his entry into the game as that seems consistent with what I remember of his early game play as town, but the fade out really worries me as I know he has a tendency to get lurky / inactive as scum. Expecting more content to hopefully make the slot more readable.

There's a back-and-forth between them about scum taking a stance or avoiding it on hypothetical scumflipped-Brian.

I was kinda getting the urge to vote CDB because a lot of his reasoning for townreading / suspecting notscience and Peabody in particular seemed really fake but the self deprecation bits in posts like #689 sound genuine and I'm fairly sure I've seen him be apathetic like this as town before but I'd need to double check (also minor thing, but I liked that he felt the need to continue posting during his sleeping hours as I don't really think he'd give anywhere near as much of a shit as scum).

I had a good town bloc forming and started to hone in on some suspects but it's hard to do that when they're not even there for me to sort out.

YYR was in your scumlist, so that's excused
But suspect

S

?
Only other person that hasn't been here is Kazeslot
You had Kaze as town
So when did you try to hone in on him?

I'm not talking about replacements only, you know (it's been a while, but I was thinking of YYR / CDB / Brian when I posted way back when...the latter two definitely felt like they haven't been around much at any rate).

CDB on Empire:

Thoughts on the attempted Maestro wagons?

It helped show me that Kaze is town, which is nice, though I never would have joined it myself. I had Maestro down as firmly null while he was here; Empire seems promising so far.

Thoughts on the leading wagon (SpyreX)?

Chewing on it. This is either my first time playing with him or my first time in a long, long time. Empire's post was well argued but I saw enough in Spyrex's response not to jump on it yet. By reputation, I don't want us to mislynch Spyrex on Day 1 if we can avoid it so I'm probably more likely to see reasons to keep him alive than I am to lynch him, I suppose.

[the exchange noted above]

If Brian flips scum, we get to see how partners reacted to his miller claim. In that instance, I think Kaze broadly avoiding taking a stance on it, as observed by Spyrex a couple of pages ago, might be useful as a buddy indicator.

Do you really think that's a thing? I think buddies of a scummillerfakeclaim would be more inclined to at least say something about it rather than avoid it altogether (it's probably a bit of really pretentious half baked theory, but I'm thinking pregame deliberated actions like that would compel scum to say something because it gives them an easy way to enter the game).

Depends whether or not it was premeditated - I dunno if the scum got a chance to discuss it among themselves before gamestart. But, yes, I do think it's a thing.

Spoiler: Empire on CTD, CTD on Maestro/Empire

- Brian / CTD are unlikely to be scum together given the strong policy-type push from the latter in the early game (wouldn't make sense for CTDscum to agree to the claim only to strongly push a lynch on him early, especially given the site's general antipathy towards miller claims - he's be committing to a hardbus too early).

CTD: Reading him as town mostly because I think he's playing differently than from what I saw of his scum play in /in-vitational 12. In that game, his votes lacked conviction as he placed them on all of the major wagons of the time with weak / lazy reasoning and he seemed more concerned with following the crowd. The votes he's placed this game have a lot more meat to them and him being shocked early on that people are believing Brian's miller claim wholesale is something I don't really expect from his scum game -- I'd have expected him to drop the issue entirely and move onto something else, not continue to pressure Brian. Need to do a full-on meta check here too, though, as I know he plays a very strong game as scum and I don't remember having read his town games too deeply.

And CTD's stuff himself:

I also empathize with a desire to get Maestro to contribute, but I think those votes would be much better served on the people who are contributing without any noticeable intent of moving the game forward, namely Brian Skies and Smudger.

I still sincerely doubt that this budding Maestro wagon is a productive use of votes.

I still didn't move my vote. Even though Empire is probably scum, Kaze is still the better lynch.

Why is Empire scum?

He questions Kaze (I think voting Empire and the only one doing so for a good chunk of the Day) after disputing something Kaze said against Empire's stuff:

Secondly, is this the only issue you have with Empire's analysis?

Nope. I'm not playing speak and spell. If you dont see why I think he's scum from a post you are quoting you're either being willfully obtuse or *gasp* dont care enough to look. Its almost like its a trend.

Don't give me that crap. I hate it when people play "I see something that you don't see" in mafia. All you've had to say about Maestro is that he's lazy and needs to "step up or die". That's awfully thin reasoning to say that Empire is "probably scum", particularly when the "lazyness" in question on Maestro's part has resulted in dropping out.

In the one game I played with Empire, I found him to be very transparently town, and I'm gonna wait and see if that shines through in this game as well before I put much thought into reading him.

Did a very cursory glance of the two games Empire linked and don't feel confident in forming a full meta yet.

Don't have the energy right now to look through SK's ISO and ponder how likely it is that a Maestro buddy would criticized the early mini-wagon on him so vocally (among other potential issues that don't come to mind so readily), but. The above are roughly in the order I find them suspect based on how they related to Maestro and Empire and vice versa.

VOTE: Grimgroove

[fferyllt]

I mean --- finding he didn't go anywhere on night 1, on day 2 you're now scumreading him.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, just found that. I think I was searching for YYR when I found the first posts. My bad.

[fferyllt]

This is trajectory.

I'm seriously sleep deprived. I need something resembling 8 hours sleep and a reread in light of her claim.

[fferyllt]

Mmmmm, trajectory.

Meaning?

[fferyllt]

To be honest, I thought it was you

Look. It's like this.

Plum is scum.

*I* am the cop.
CTD is town.
SpyreX is Town neighbor.
fferyllt is the doc.

fferyllt saved SpyreX last night as an obvious neighbor save.

Easy peasy lemon squeezy.

That leaves the remaining scum in you, Garm, and Peabody. That's why the conversation today is doing nothing.

Hammer at will.

Who was investigated on night 1?

[fferyllt]

fferyllt is the doc.

fferyllt saved SpyreX last night as an obvious neighbor save.

This is incorrect btw. I'm not doc.

[fferyllt]

Says I wrote that, but it's quoted from Yates.

[fferyllt]

VOTE: Plum

[fferyllt]

But, I seriously don't get the haste here.

:/

[fferyllt]

I have a theory about the 2nd kill being SK and who the SK would be, but I don't want to float it in case the player is the 2nd killer but is vig.

I expect anyone would conclude similarly if we continue to see either additional kills or kills that don't look scum-motivated, so I'll leave it at that for now.

[fferyllt]

Did you see my theory?

Yeah, I did. My theory's different.

[fferyllt]

I've said all I'm going to say for now.

[fferyllt]

Yates?

[fferyllt]

I'm guessing this shouldn't come as much of a surprise but

I'm obviously not the cop

and was simply trying to draw the NK. I was running on a hunch that this slot had already been investigated so any real cop would know not to cc me. I also held out bonus hope that if we had a doc they would protect me. Second night phase in a row with a missing kill so maybe it worked?

At this point I'm hoping someone checked into you [Garm], fferyllt, or Peabody.

Also, sorry about trying to frame you as the doc, fferyllt. While I have a - well -

not scum

read on you, I'm not 100% convinced you are Town. Like... did you pay our friend Grimm a little visit last night??

No.

I'm down with mass claim.

[fferyllt]

I'm guessing this shouldn't come as much of a surprise but

I'm obviously not the cop

and was simply trying to draw the NK. I was running on a hunch that this slot had already been investigated so any real cop would know not to cc me. I also held out bonus hope that if we had a doc they would protect me. Second night phase in a row with a missing kill so maybe it worked?

At this point I'm hoping someone checked into you [Garm], fferyllt, or Peabody.

Also, sorry about trying to frame you as the doc, fferyllt. While I have a - well -

not scum

read on you, I'm not 100% convinced you are Town. Like... did you pay our friend Grimm a little visit last night??

I'm one-shot bullet-proof town. That's why I denied your calling me doc. If there's been a missing kill at least one of the two nights with one kill, then it's possible scum knew I couldn't be doc because it would require a self-protect.

I hope there is a doc as well, but if not, I didn't want that possibility removed from scum consideration given your claim.

[fferyllt]

I hope there is a doc as well...

How could that possibly happen? Tell me how that makes sense for balance.

I dunno. x-shot? It depends on what else town has, and what scum has as well.

It also depends on the nature and number of extra kills. If that was one-shot, then I'm guessing no doc.

But, if it was one shot, then the n2 and n3 kills are pretty confusing.

[fferyllt]

Oh fferyllt I am going to be honest I don't have the ability to kill at night I was subtly hinting at it in my previous posts so mafia would kill me in the night phase thinking I was the Vig or SK.

Or SK? Why would you care if scum kill an SK? And when did you start subtly hinting?

[fferyllt]

That said? I share your concerns regarding fferyllt.

And your concerns are?

[fferyllt]

Interesting.

The reason I jumped all over Fferyllt is because *I'm* the Doc. I didn't want to announce first just in case I was wrong about Spy and he wanted to claim Doc. Low angle play but worth the shot, imo.

I never asked mod who CDB protected N1 [because it obviously didn't work] but I protected SpyreX upon replace in. What I said about why "Fferyllt" protected SpyreX is why *I* protected him. That was my way of calling my protection in case I was killed last night.

I protected CTD last night. I thought he was going to claim Cop today and was trying to throw scum off. Then I realized if *I* was thinking this, scum was probably thinking this.

I knew it was a risky gambit but I figured scum would have to try to kill the "doc" knowing I would be protected. Since I thought Fferyllt was an SK, I marked her as the doc. Her waking up alive this morning is - well - strange. Combine this with my fake Town read on fferyllt and this has me fairly convinced she's scum.

Additionally, I'm on board with Garmr's theory. It looks like a textbook scum trying to set up a mislynch play.

At this point I think we can confidently lynch Fferyllt. If the game isn't over at lynch, SpyreX is an SK so we can just knock him out tomorrow.

Vote: Fferyllt

I'm town, and I don't think you can make a case for me being scum based on my play, because I wore my motivation on my sleeve this game, hoping to draw a night kill.

So, I want to think I was right about the CTD slot all along.

Spyrex' kills are in alignment with his stances during the game day, so I'm pretty ok with him being the Vig.

I want to vote you purely on the basis of our abilities clashing the way they do, but with Spyrex claiming three kills, there's a kill missing even if my bullet-proof was used up. The other problem with this theory is that I don't see how scum-you can get to a win given the number of players left, especially after my flip.

So, can we talk about where the final scum lies in this set-up? I'm baffled.

[fferyllt]

I guess it's possible scum skipped a kill to shore up the doc claim.

My flip is going to be a problem for you if that's the case, Yates.

[fferyllt]

So the only real concern about your claim is how you get to LYLO after my flip. Maybe my claim was a surprise but your gambit was already in place.

[fferyllt]

Well I think a fferrylt lynch is a great idea and with a doctor,Vig and inspector we pretty much won this game. Anyway If fferrylt is somehow town we lynch CTD there is no way we can lose.


VOTE: fferrylt

No, if I'm lynched, your lynch priority becomes Yates. Don't mess around with oddball corner cases after you see my flip.

[fferyllt]

I have infinite bragging rights because I sent the mod a PM last night predicting all three PR claims (Peabody investigating NS and Plum, Spyrex killing Empire and NS, Yates protecting Spyrex) and I expect this PM to be posted in post-game.

Are you assuming that I'm lying or that both Yates and I are town?

Because being convinced Yates is town is kind of important to me. If he's town, I don't want to turn this into a 1v1. I want to figure out where the 3rd scum actually is.

[fferyllt]

Your flip I presume is scum but I wonder if you have a role FFerylt. Were you rolecop or Just vanilla scum. Maybe you were a tracker.

You presume wrong. I'm absolutely confident that my play from my first post onward is in line with my role. And my role is BP Town. I'm a fairly transparent player as town most of the time anyway. TI went so far as to be sure that a doctor wasn't off the table in scum calculations yesterday if they had already targeted me, when as VT I would have let the assumption that I was doc lie and hope to soak up the night kill.

[fferyllt]

I want to figure out where the 3rd scum actually is.

Well... it's you, silly. Your BP doesn't make sense from a balance perspective. Also, why would you be 1-shot while the rest of us are standard unlimited roles?

An unlimited BP would be a crazy role for town, especially if you are Doc. It sort of makes sense balance-wise due to Spyrex being multi-shot.

I don't think scum - down by 2 - is in a position to no kill. Last night, scum had to try for the doc [to prevent another no kill], the cop [to preserve anonymity] or - less optimally - the vig/sk for any prayer at a win. Of course, you already know this.

I know that's standard strategy.

When I'm scum, I don't always do the expected. And I seriously doubt you do. I don't forget the Rage game where your scum team won by having one of you claim scum in thread at LYLO and lead the lynch on SK-me.

Try again. If you're town, consider the possibility that I'm what I say I am and think about where the final scum is. At the very least it gives me a chance to think about the game and possibly come up with something that will be useful for town tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

I went so far as to be sure that a doctor wasn't off the table in scum calculations yesterday if they had already targeted me, when as VT I would have let the assumption that I was doc lie and hope to soak up the night kill.

Then why wouldn't you do the same as a 1-shot BP? This also does not add up. Your job as BP is to draw a NK. Your play flies in the face of this. Why *NOT* let scum think you are the doc? Heck, why not just CLAIM doc?

You are caught scum. Your claim is quite obviously fake. And your play yesterday - especially late in the day - is enough to incriminate you.

BECAUSE MISSING KILLS.

If I have been targeted, then I CAN'T be doc in their calculations. Scum would know that if they targeted me.

[fferyllt]

I'm really serious here. I'm almost certain to be lynched. I don't want to be screaming for your head on a pike tomorrow if you're town. I've been on the receiving end of that as town, and it was crippling the next game day.

So show some town flexibility and indulge me in the thought experiment.

[fferyllt]

I went so far as to be sure that a doctor wasn't off the table in scum calculations yesterday if they had already targeted me, when as VT I would have let the assumption that I was doc lie and hope to soak up the night kill.

Then why wouldn't you do the same as a 1-shot BP? This also does not add up. Your job as BP is to draw a NK. Your play flies in the face of this. Why *NOT* let scum think you are the doc? Heck, why not just CLAIM doc?

You are caught scum. Your claim is quite obviously fake. And your play yesterday - especially late in the day - is enough to incriminate you.

BECAUSE MISSING KILLS.

If I have been targeted, then I CAN'T be doc in their calculations. Scum would know that if they targeted me.

You could of targeted the same player it's that simple.

Grim, maybe. maaaybe. I was waffling on him overnight given which wagon he was on.

I can't see why scum would have targeted NotSci. Doing so confirmed Spyrex as a likely town neighbor.

[fferyllt]

Town has won fferylt what don't you understand if your town why are you worried.

Who do you lynch tomorrow when I flip Town BP? And why?

And if you're wrong again then where to next?

I hope you're right that this is autowin, but I think there are a few too many question marks. And I think that because I know my role.

[fferyllt]

Spyrex can kill yates if you flip town and if yates is somehow also town we lynch CTD it's that simple.

You're right, provided Spyrex has kills left.

And yates, if town can help Peabody get off one more investigation.

I have a question for the normal set up experts. A mini normal game is allowed one non-normal role. Would a neighbor/vig account for that, or would that be considered a normal role?

[fferyllt]

If you're town, consider the possibility that I'm what I say I am

If YOU are Town, explain to me how this game makes sense.

SpyreX claims Vig. I think we all agree that his claim matches up with the kills. Also, sitting right in front of us is the fact that if he is actually an SK, it seems unlikely he would claim Vig today since he would be the obvious target tomorrow after you flip scum. At the very least, we know for certainty that he is NOT scum. No doubt scum tried killing him after the NS flip. Kill the obv Town. Except, whoops! Yates comes in and doc protects him N2.

CTD? As I said, I don't believe scum would have no killed last night. Unless scum also targeted Grim - a dude that would have been easy mislynch bait today - he was last night's scum kill target. I know this because there was only 1 kill and I protected him last night.

Is Peabody fake claiming cop? I suppose it's possible. I took this into consideration when I asked him those questions in my first [second?] post of the day. Of course, that was before we had all claims on the table. So, tell me how Town wins with a vig, a doc, and a 1-shot BP. Feels like we need an investigative role, don't you think? Two saves means I'm a proven and effective doc. Two kills N1 means Vig/SK is on the table. That leaves your claim as the one in question.

Is Garm a GF? You can't assume that until other options have been exhausted. And, as he has pointed out, this game is pretty much in the bag.

What angle am I missing? Town vs Scum vs SK tomorrow? My save tonight could foul that up. Scum and SpyreX [SK in this scenario] would BOTH have to try to shoot me. Plus, you flipping Town and a non scum kill by "vig" would seal the win for scum since he would be the OBVIOUS lynch tomorrow. Doesn't seem like a smart play by SpyreX.

Ok.

I am going to flip town, so town PRs are going to have to figure out their best moves knowing that either

- garmr is a GF (which I've been contemplating in the back of my mind, but I feel like both a miller and a GF would really punish the cop).

- yates is not a doc

- CTD is scum

Of your other options, I think Peabody cop is confirmed both by his play and by the presence of a miller. And Spyrex has been town to me since mid day 1, his kill targets make sense for vig (though I disagree that notsci looked scum), and he's claimed his kills.

I think I'm done, unless somebody has a question for me.

[fferyllt]

What miller?

Brian Skies, lynched day 1. Instead of Empire. :/

[fferyllt]

who's the miller and no i'm not the godfather -_-

How the fuck could you forget this?

Yates gets a pass because of when he replaced in.

[fferyllt]

Garmr's potential as scum just raised a few points IMO. One of the major themes of day 1 and he doesn't remember. It must not have mattered to him on day 1.

[fferyllt]

There's no attempt at wriggling out. I'm not going to vote Yates and even try to force a 1v1 because I'm not convinced he's scum.

I will have questions in post game about if/how I could have played a BP role better, though.

I consider myself to be 1 vote away from inno child. All of my concerns will be the concerns of confirmed town with another vote.

Ask questions. I'm not the brightest bulb. I'm not the dimmest bulb either.

[fferyllt]

I will have questions in post game about if/how I could have played a BP role better, though.

I think I've already answered this question by virtue of why your claim is not believable. Ignoring balance? If you get assigned a BP role you have one job and one job only - draw NK's away from Town PR's. You didn't do that yesterday. That's why your play doesn't align with your claim in my mind. I also don't see where you hinted at having a PR on days 1, 2, OR 3 - when you had the best opportunity EVER.

That would be totally out of line with my PR play. I don't crumb roles. I crumb targets/results if my role involves them. And tbh the frequency with which I get N1K'd as vanilla town, it didn't even occur to me that I wouldn't be a night kill choice. I still think I was. Probably on Night 2. Even with the concerns about his play, Grim is a formidable enough player that I don't think he would have been an easy lynch. If one of the kills was doubled - i.e., opening the possibility of you not being what you say you are - then it was most likely Grim.

But, I'll consider that for a next time.

[fferyllt]

you consider grim formidable when others considered him a easy lynch and now his dead that's not really making the case is it.

More formidable than notsci.

[fferyllt]

One way or another, my role will be proven tonight so... *shrug*

Also, why play to your meta? Heck, I would use meta to my advantage if I were you.

It's as much about mindset as it is about meta. In the environment where I learned mafia, crumbing roles was literally never done. The same players played together so much that a role crumb would stand out like a sore thumb in one of our posts. We protected PR result crumbs by most of town making subtly crumb-like posts at the start of game days.

My game has adapted to MS realities, but some of what I learned elsewhere either hasn't been extinguished by negative reinforcement yet, or is advantageous in this environment.

[fferyllt]

Just so this doesn't get lost.

SpyreX - please holster tonight!!!

I missed why this is a good idea given a town bp flip.

[fferyllt]

Also, it maybe betrays a belief that there will be a tonight.

[fferyllt]

Neighbor/vig is considered normal. Any normal role + neighbor is considered normal.

Spyrex is undoubtedly a vig and not an SK, otherwise he wouldn't have claimed the kills. If we lynch scum today and the game isn't over, he's an automatic lynch.

Peabody is undoubtedly a cop because the play fits to a T and set-up balance is off if he's not. If he was scum, he also didn't have to clear Garmr, who is undoubtedly town as well.

If Fferyllt is miraculously not scum, the only possible culprit is Yates, and this can easily be solved by a combination of vigging/copping/lynching him and myself.

The only remaining question is who gets to hammer Fferyllt.

I assumed your vote was already on me given the bolded.

If that's truly the only remaining question, then what are you doing?

[fferyllt]

Also, it maybe betrays a belief that there will be a tonight.

It goes without saying that if he's a vig and you flip scum the game is over.

Holstering is a good idea because there will be a cop reveal tomorrow. Why guess and shoot and possibly create a 1 v 1 v 1 if he's an SK? Even as a vig, it's showing that he's willing to let the cop do his job and that he ISN'T an SK.

If he's an SK and creates a 1 v 1 v 1 tomorrow? He loses and scum gets the win. We need that to be clear.

Conversely, what's the advantage to shooting tonight? There isn't one.

Your alignment is going to be up for serious question after my flip. That's why I ask and it will have to be sorted some way or another. There are two players that need either investigation or death. You're one of them.

[fferyllt]

Just shoot CrashTextDummie his the wild card and investigate either yates or Spyrex doesn't matter which. It's either 3 players or 4 players and 3 players is better.

So you are comfortable with both a BP and a doc in the game once the BP is confirmed.

[fferyllt]

Just shoot CrashTextDummie his the wild card and investigate either yates or Spyrex doesn't matter which. It's either 3 players or 4 players and 3 players is better.

Investigation on SpyreX is worthless. He's either a Vig or an SK. They would both come back clean to a cop.
Investigation on me is worthless. I'm either a doc - as I claim - or I'm dead when the cop turns up dead in the morning [ie. you wouldn't get the result].
CTD is the ONLY investigation needed.
And we will know his alignment in the morning.

That's why I'm against SpyreX shooting. This way if CTD comes up clean, the discussion about a GF comes back into play. Since I will be dead for that discussion, you are the one that makes the most sense as a GF in that specific scenario.

I'm fairly confident [like - 90%] in the fferyllt flip but this is a fun exercise to brainstorm in case of a similar situation in future games. So, I'm willing to indulge for the sake of practice.

And I'm about 50% confident on your flip or I'd be voting you.

[fferyllt]

Does this look like the final post of a doctor who was at L-2 mere hours before nightfall?

Fuck. I'm so sorry. This isn't fair, I'm not going to have enough time over the next few days to catch up with this. Particularly sorry to CTD 'cause at least I've completed games with some of the others here.

Mod:

Huge apologies. It's best if I request replacement. Sorry for not manning up and recognising as much sooner.

[fferyllt]

I'm back from V/LA and now going to get caught up/go back over Day 1. A scumflip is exactly what the doctor ordered; I'll get my teeth into this one.

On the other hand, this could be a crumb. :/

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I don't see any alternative to my lynch really, given the lay of the game.

The crumb does make me feel marginally better about yates.

[fferyllt]

Its fine. There's a few things I'm really not excited about in the dance of lies but ffery's c/p on CTD's pretty clean crumb shores that up.

Really the only losing situation here is peabody fakeclaiming cop which would be professional grade. If ffery is town and I die tonight, don't buy into this rushed nonsense again.

Unvote, Vote: ffery

You know that I'm going to flip town. The problem is figuring who actually is lying, and we can't effectively do that unless town as a whole is willing to make the effort and willing to look at the whole game, not just this day's claims.

The crumb does make me feel better, though it's possible that CDB had a fake claim in mind from early on. I have one prior game with him where he was vanilla town. I have no idea if such a plan would fit the parameters of his scum game.

I hope my flip brings some clarity to the game and sets up a town win tomorrow. Good luck.

I'll keep an eye out for additional comments or questions.

[fferyllt]

I'm still t town. ctd or garmr I guess.

[fferyllt]

yeah, so I guess nobody wants to talk to the townie you just lynched. So, Peabody was off my wagon. I guess it's a gazillion to one chance he's not not the cop. That was the Kaze slot, and I had him as town from pretty early on.

So yeah. Without that crumb of CDB's I'd still be thinking 50% chance Yates is lying. With the crumb, though, not so much. CTD and garmr are in the frame.

[fferyllt]

If it's spyrex SK, my heart will break and I will cry bitter tears and never look upon kuribo's flowchart again. Seeing Empire dead on day 2, though, that was perhaps the high point of this game for me.

[fferyllt]

regrets uncounted
time pauses, then flows onward
requiem for BP.

[fferyllt]

gg SpyreX. Working on those bitter tears now.

[fferyllt]

Yes he was.

[fferyllt]

I was pretty outraged about the lynch on one level, but the wifom of both a bp and a doc in this size game wasn't going to go away. I felt like my play outside setup spec was solidly protown.

[fferyllt]

ABR shouldn't have been lynched. SleepyKrew had played very protown. That lynch really pissed me off. I think I'm getting progressively stubborn and opposed to lynching townreads rather than letting nolynch happen.

[fferyllt]

^^ Very protown prior to flaking I should say. And he flaked in all his games.

[fferyllt]

The high point of this game for me was the player list. It was an enjoyable and challenging group of players, many of whom I didn't know prior to game start or replace-in. I would gladly play another game with this group.

[fferyllt]

We were beaten by the setup, fair and square.

We also mislynched a ton of obvtown. I'm not sure town would have salvaged this if the last day had been 2-1-1 though I think CTD's plan was as good as it could get for that scenario.

[fferyllt]

Given the data I had available and my assumptions about the game: 3 scum to start and possibly no doctor due to my role, this was one of very few occasions in mafia games where I felt leaving another player's assumption or gambit untouched was a bad idea. Night 4 might have worked out differently if I had kept quiet about not being the doc, but I doubt it.

I usually value reads over setup spec and prefer to lynch the scummiest looking player, end of story. At the point where I needed to find a lynch that was better than my own, I came up empty. My last post pre-haiku was the best post I made on day 4.