Mini Normal 1917: :X Mafia (Game over!)

[CCC]

Hi, Gamma, Grendel, Accountant!

I know I've played with all three of you before. Been a while, though.

1. What is your preferred alignment?
2. On a scale of one to ten how collaborative a player are you and why?
3. How important is it to take other players personalities into account when forming reads on them?
4. What player do you have the most experience with on this roster?
5. What are you feeling as you enter this mini's D1?

1. Generally, Town.
2. I'll happily collaborate with people to the extent that I think they're Town, if I have no strong leads of my own. If I do have strong leads, I'll try to encourage people to follow my vote instead.
3. Important.
4. Not sure. One of the three I greeted at the top of this post.
5. Cautiously optimistic.

[CCC]

...I'm a bit suspicious of this dogpile on Cheetory. I mean, yes, Cheetory hasn't exactly been a shining example of pure Townishness... but at the same time, having three votes on him makes him look like a safe Mafia target, especially so early in the game. MuttonChopMagic's long rhyming posts are hard to read and hard to parse... DeathRowKitty's feud would look a lot more suspicious if she wasn't the first to start piling on Cheetory; but what really strikes me as the Mafiaest post so far (and that's a pretty low bar) is Klick calling for a quicklynch on Cheetory.

I'm sure Mafia would

love

a quicklynch on Day One. Less time to talk, to make and consider reads, to act and react, to allow Town time to work.

VOTE: Klick

[CCC]

Still why is it bad?

The questions don't have enough (any?) of a direct tie to the current game for alignment to meaningfully appear in answers. *insert theory discussion of early game here* so RQS is basically the worst thing ever. Talking about it in general terms is also a bad thing though so etc

So, what do you think we

should

be talking about on Day One, then?

[CCC]

I think NotTheRealPaul is probably scum. The selfvote + questionnaire answering felt like a really bad attempt to fit in/insert self into game and their post was more or less an isolated island that didn't touch on what was being discussed around them. This is scummy because mafia find it way easier to put themselves into a game through easy to fake stuff like selfvote jokes or answering NAI questions rather than put themselves in the midst of real discussion.

VOTE: NotTheRealPaul

oh crap you caught me

Let me just hop onto the maf thread and ask cheetory what to do.

This is either a scum confession or an attempt at humour in seriously bad taste.

I consider the second of those two possibilities rather significantly more likely than the first; but, either way, I think the unreal Paul deserves some scrutiny.

Not that there's much to scrutinise yet...

[CCC]

I know it's hard to seem Townish on day one.

Both of my tutorial games, I was lynched day one for apparently looking really scummy. Both of my tutorial games, I was Town. So, yeah. The struggle is a hard one. I understand it.

But... I can also understand why people might want to vote for you. I'm not trying to knock you. Not at all.

[CCC]

Just as a general question for everyone - is having around one in three players Mafia a reasonable ratio?

Which, with thirteen players, would mean four Mafia?

[CCC]

You're a very genial person!
Don't worry, I was just kidding around.

Excellent!

[quote="In [url=viewtopic.php?p=9279617#p9279617]:I'm going to be very town when I start feeling good about a scumread.

While we're here, do you think scum genuinely thinks that they can get a quicklynch in the first 5 pages?[/quote]

No, I don't. I do think that they'll grab it with both hands if it falls into their lap, though.

And I do think that trying for it, even in a completely non-serious way, is at least a slight hint of Mafianess.

[CCC]

Argh. Apologies; messed up that quote in the last post.

Oh jeeze.
Uh.
Three mafia is probably the only thing you're going to see here.

So, one in four, then? That's better than I'd expected...

[CCC]

forgot to add a slight scumread on CCC just because he thinks an obvious joke warrants scrutiny

Do you have reason to believe you might not be able to withstand scrutiny?

[CCC]

TripleC is probably my strongest townread atm ftr.

I'm gratified but slightly surprised. Normally I seem to make people think I'm slightly scummy when I'm Town.

TripleC is probably my strongest townread atm ftr.

Dont let his niceness fool you

Oh, wait, there it is.

[CCC]

I did some homework!

One of TripleC's recent games was an 11 player game in which there was 3 scum.

Newbie games have nine players, two of whom are Mafia. Here we have eleven players.

Three mafia sounds about right to me.

Given that this is something they've been interested in trying to figure out as town before, the # of games they've played in general and the different numbering in said game, I'm leaning towards believing that the # of players line of questioning is genuine.
His tone as scum is a little more forced from what I saw in the one game I skimmed and I feel like he genuinely believes his reading for his scumread on Klick.
So, town for now.

Number of Mafia is an important question for me because I am a mathematician at heart. I know probability theory and a fair bit of C++.

Incidentally, if you're right about the three Mafia, and if I assume that all vote targets are completely randomly selected, then Town would have about a one-in-five chance of winning the game. But votes are

not

randomly selected, and PRs

do

have an effect, so... I'm not sure how useful that is.

(If you'd like, I can show the code I used to find that figure - I can do more relevant calculations as well, but I need something to calculate

from

, which I don't have much of yet).

[CCC]

okay okay so I have some good poe going
this should make the scum start showing
cheetory, accountant, klick, gamma, notsure as green
so that leaves 3/7 scum in {bigben, ccc, paul, backhand, raya, grendel, drk}, neat

Hmmmm. So, it's not that I've done anything that looks at all scummy, but because I'm not in the group that looks specifically Towny? I guess I can live with that.

Apart from myself - as I'm clearly Town - I do find one of your other reads a little odd - might I ask why you have Klick on the green side?

[CCC]

so here we see 8 posts in a catch up
not a single thing gamesolving or even advancing the thread, yup
I actually didn't notice how bad it was my first read
this is a gross as fuck entrance, votes we might need

How exactly is one supposed to 'advance the thread'? I gave what few reads I had - most people are still looking pretty neutral to me, what reads I have are very slight indeed - and tried to engage on a few of the topics presented for discussion. What else were you expecting from me?

[CCC]

Backhand - since you're here and catching up, what are your current reads on everyone?

[CCC]

Oh so a VI is pretty much me got it

also after looking back at it, my little scum read on accountant was just me being stupid. Agree with cheetory that he was being pretty tryhard so id say he is prob town rn.

This seems a bit sudden. Could be Town rethinking a read, could be Mafia realising a fake read isn't going to fly and backing off...

[CCC]

MCM is starting to grow on me

Not on me. His communication's poor, his rhyming is obscure, his acronyms overused, his communication confused.

And the worst of it is,

none of that is in any way alignment indicative

, so I can't even justify voting him off on that basis. I get the feeling that about half the time, I'm missing the point of his posts; and that's not good for Town, but it doesn't exactly help Mafia either, so as much as I want to use it as an excuse for scumreading him, I can't.

[CCC]

Catching up.

If things keep going like they were yesterday I may not need to analyze all the RQS responses. --Meaning-- that I've developed some reads I'm confidant in.

That's good!

Mind sharing them?

[CCC]

My thoughts on gamma's response is that he probably legitimately doesn't know what I meant.

I had the thought of "scum Gamma would care more about making themselves look good and would therefore read it until they understood it so they can form a better response" but im very unsure of how legitimate this is as a tell which is why I didn't bring it up

Scum Gamma

might

also falsely claim an inability to understand to hide not being able to answer the case.

I don't

think

that's what he's doing - I think he doesn't understand it, which seems legitimate because my understanding of DRK's post was somewhat at odds with Gamma's limited comments, which implies that at least one of us is getting it wrong and therefore there is genuine confusion there - but it is a strategy that theoretical Mafia might theoretically use.

[CCC]

@Death Row Cat
I actually disagree on post 94

Accountant what is your actual position on doing the RQS?

Gamma is approaching this line of questioning is very inline with how I have moved discussion through RQS in the past as town. More importantly I don’t think its something that Gamma would do with the expectation of getting town read by anyone. His thinking isn’t restricted with the purpose of looking town. Meaning he is more likely to be town.

Hmmmmmm... but a discussion on theory is a place where Mafia can easily retreat to - a place where Mafia can give genuine opinions without having to look fake. Gamma's looking mostly neutral to me at the moment... but I don't think this point is really worth even a slight Townread.

Each to their own, of course, but that's my opinion.

[CCC]

Oh i misspelled sacred as scared lol.

That explains the "???"

So... when you were Mafia, you were

sacred

of using RQS around certain players...???

Scared

makes sense in that sentence - if you had reason to be concerned that using RQS in front of those players would lead to you being outed as scum. But I don't know how to even parse the word 'sacred' in that sentence structure. Could you perhaps elaborate on your meaning?

[CCC]

Oh so a VI is pretty much me got it

also after looking back at it, my little scum read on accountant was just me being stupid. Agree with cheetory that he was being pretty tryhard so id say he is prob town rn.

This seems a bit sudden. Could be Town rethinking a read, could be Mafia realising a fake read isn't going to fly and backing off...

Why did you make this post?

Because, while NotPaul's sudden reversal

could

be Town, I'm getting a slight scum vibe off it.

Sorry, I should probably have made that clearer.

[CCC]

MCM is like Kain or RC or kuribo or anyone else with a weird shtick

Put the effort into understanding them and focus on the actual content

Urgh. Half the time he seems to be deliberately making it difficult.

...I guess I should buckle down and make the attempt to properly decipher it, but not right now.

[CCC]

My current reads:

Towniest of the Town:
CCC

Slightly Townish:
Backhand, Cheetory

Mostly Neutral:
Accountant, Gamma, Grendel, Notsure, Raya36

Neutral but annoying:
MuttonChopMagic

Slightly scummy:
DeathRowKitty, Klick, NotTheRealPaul

The only one of these reads that's really got any strength at all is my own read, and that's only because I've seen my own role PM. But that's more or less my thinking so far.

I think I'm happy leaving my vote where it is for the moment.

[CCC]

If you were making poetry - which requires more than just rhyming, you'd need to pay attention to things like rhythm and metre an metaphor and imagery and similar - then I think it would be less of an annoyance. Or if what you were trying to say was a good deal clearer.

But, as it is, it looks like you're sacrificing clarity for and annoyingly low-effort attempt in the vague direction of actual poetry.

[CCC]

I usually make much better beats and I'll admit it's been lacking this game
I've basically been drunk or hung over this entire time and haven't had the same

...I guess that's a

little

better. Not great, and honestly I'd really rather prefer it if you dropped this rhyming idea, but at least here you've made some effort to scan.

okay okay so I have some good poe going
this should make the scum start showing
cheetory, accountant, klick, gamma, notsure as green
so that leaves 3/7 scum in {bigben, ccc, paul, backhand, raya, grendel, drk}, neat

not much has really changed besides grendel switching teams
VOTE: raya I don't remember anything from him it seems

I know I've asked this before, but I didn't see any answer - how did Klick get on your green team?

[CCC]

Once I feel I have a solid preliminary readslist Ill put it here
I have a solid chunk of townreads rn and one scumread

I'd certainly like to see your list, once it's ready.

[CCC]

VOTE: bigbenwd

I've read up and this guy is serious obvscum

Hi, and welcome!

I'm looking forward to seeing some actual content from you. Something that is at least theoretically useful in differentiating Town from Mafia.

[CCC]

So... when you were Mafia, you were

sacred

of using RQS around certain players...???

Scared

makes sense in that sentence - if you had reason to be concerned that using RQS in front of those players would lead to you being outed as scum. But I don't know how to even parse the word 'sacred' in that sentence structure. Could you perhaps elaborate on your meaning?

<snip>

RC, and Frogger had fresh town meta of me playing a game where I didn't RQS, or open with anything notable really. Thought I should keep that in line and not introduce something unexpected

The "???" was in reference to Accountant here.

More importantly, I was scared of using RQS around players like RC, Frogger, and JayReed.

???

What did you need this info for?

Frankly, putting 'sacred' (meaning 'holy') into your sentence made absolutely no sense at all. Putting 'scared' (meaning 'worried' or 'concerned') made a whole lot of sense. So I couldn't figure out why you said that the word should have been 'sacred' (meaning 'holy') and not 'scared' (meaning 'concerned').

The word you originally had made sense, and after this post I am even more certain that you had the correct spelling to begin with. The word you said it

should

have been

didn't

make sense (and still doesn't).

At this point, I'm inclined to think that you meant 'scared' (meaning 'concerned') the whole time and simply got a bit muddled when you tried to correct it.

Right now my reads are:

Cheetory6, Gamma Emerald, notsure, Accountant,

MuttonChopMagic, Not_Mafia, Hiraki, CCC, Klick, DeathRowKitty,

Backhand, NotTheRealPaul,

My scum reads aren't especially strong, but I am p confidant in all my town reads.

The newly subbed in players are the dead null on the list of course.

Hmmmmm. You're not the first to feel a lack of confidence in Backhand.

My current reads:

Towniest of the Town:
CCC

Slightly Townish:
Backhand, Cheetory

Mostly Neutral:
Accountant, Gamma, Grendel, Notsure, Raya36

Neutral but annoying:
MuttonChopMagic

Slightly scummy:
DeathRowKitty, Klick, NotTheRealPaul

The only one of these reads that's really got any strength at all is my own read, and that's only because I've seen my own role PM. But that's more or less my thinking so far.

I think I'm happy leaving my vote where it is for the moment.

What backhand doing way up there?

It's a weak read. General impression. He seems to be asking questions, trying to understand other people's motivations. He just... feels genuine, I guess.

Like I said, it's a weak read. He's looking just a slight bit better than neutral.

[CCC]

I have experience of CCC using his meta as a popular D1 lynch to dissuade lynch rallying on him as both alignments. This situation seems like a parallel to me.

I don't know

why

I'm a popular Day One lynch, but if I can use the fact to become a less popular Day One lynch, I will do so. I actually

like

playing games for more than a single day on occasion...

[CCC]

I don't really want to put up with a contrivance the whole game, and I'll admit that's probably coloring my views, but if you look past that to the content, you get:

An OMGUS vote, poorly explained
An OMGUS vote, not at all explained

I'm baffled as to why anyone would townread the slot.

I may be taking it too far the other way. I also don't want to have to put up with this all game, and it's leaving a bad impression - so to compensate, I'm completely ignoring my general impression and trying to work on explicit tells only.

But yeah, his votes could certainly use a bit more explanation.

[CCC]

Who is masian

Masian is a legendary poster on this site. It was once said that she once caught the entire scum team on page 1. She has never not been protected at night and when she replaces into games, it's standard operating procedure for the scum to just claim and let themselves get lynched to save everyone time. She quit mafia after the FBI offered her a lucrative contract to put her skills to work sniffing out Russian spies.

So, Masian is Chuck Norris's screen name, then?

[CCC]

Hi, Hiraki!

I'm glad to see you're jumping right in with your views!

No, I don't. I do think that they'll grab it with both hands if it falls into their lap, though.

OK but that's why you're the only one voting Klick - you understand this, no?

That's reasonable. Right now, I'd be perfectly happy switching my vote to either NotTheRealPaul or DeathRowKitty; none of them are really strong scumreads individually, but I'm pretty confident that at least

one

of them is Mafia.

[CCC]

A majorty of the scum reads around him seem to do with his posting gimmick and him being scummy for that vs reasons I think are creditable?

This is one of the things I find particularly worrying about the calls against MuttonChopMagic. Calls to lynch someone for a posting gimmick just feel a lot like Mafia trying to push through a lynch on a Townie - and then get away with minimal suspicion when he does, in fact, flip Town.

[CCC]

NotTheRealPaul (1): NotTheRealPaul

Why does this still exist?

Hmmmm. Looking back at this... I notice that a self-vote takes the player's name out of the 'not voting' pile and makes it look, to a casual glance over the votecount, that he's participating more than he is. So I guess it

could

be an attempt to look busy.

[CCC]

"But I'm also inclined to think DRK is trying to start a wagon to direct away from my read on them, as shit and/or personal as people might think it to be."

is

"But I'm also inclined to think DRK is trying to start a wagon to direct away from my read on them, as shit and/or personal as people might think my read on DRK to be.

Not sure can you explain this? DRK hasnt even voted you Im not sure how he is trying to start a wagon on you

Notsure never said that DRK was starting a wagon

on Notsure

. He said that DRK was starting a wagon

as a distraction

to draw attention away from Notsure's read on DRK.

[CCC]

I considered his replies satisfactory
do you need a sentence by sentence reaction to see?
like, not sure what that question means

what about my reply did you not like g

Requoting the same post over and over does not magically make people understand you better. Sometimes, rephrasing the same statement in different words

does

, and I can strongly recommend such a strategy in the future.

[CCC]

Don't hold your breath

Hikari replaced in well after you, and he's been reading, talking, engaging with the game. There's honestly nothing in your slot

to

read.

I won't hold my breath, but... do you think you could at least let us know your current reads?

[CCC]

Once I feel I have a solid preliminary readslist Ill put it here
I have a solid chunk of townreads rn and one scumread

I'd certainly like to see your list, once it's ready.

dunno if you didnt read or trying to look like you are encouraging discussion. I already said this.

Hadn't got that far at the time of posting. I saw Gamma's post, checked his ISO to look for the reads, didn't find them, and posted. Came across your post only afterwards.

[CCC]

my klick read is from very little content very early so clearly it's not strong
but I believe building early wagons is pro town (hence wht I voted cheet) and him getting pushed for it was wrong
his quicklynch post is clearly not for real
but, a) scum doesn't usually post like that due to attention ya feel
and b) the fact it was taken seriously confused me
so, he gets to be green until something shows me otherwise you see?
and no, he can't just idle and keep that green
if he subs my read goes back to neutral and bleak

...ah, okay. That makes sense, thank you.

I did consider that it might have been a deliberate attempt to look Towny by pretending to be Mafia in such an overblown way that no-one takes it seriously (and if it

was

then your reaction was precisely the intended one) but maybe I've been going too far down the rabbit hole.

[CCC]

Vote notmafia

Haven't caught up yet, or don't want to? Whatcha thinking?

I'm thinking 'doesn't want to'. It looks like he's pulling off one or two low-content posts per day - just enough to still be playing while not letting any information out from himself. It'll be interesting to see how that strategy plays out.

[CCC]

A majorty of the scum reads around him seem to do with his posting gimmick and him being scummy for that vs reasons I think are creditable?

This is one of the things I find particularly worrying about the calls against MuttonChopMagic. Calls to lynch someone for a posting gimmick just feel a lot like Mafia trying to push through a lynch on a Townie - and then get away with minimal suspicion when he does, in fact, flip Town.

Practically speaking policy lynches never go through

Good to know, thanks.

I won't hold my breath, but... do you think you could at least let us know your current reads?

You shouldn't have such lofty expectations of N_M.

*Sigh*... Not so good to know.

[CCC]

My current reads:

Superbly Town:
CCC

Slightly Townish:
Backhand, Cheetory, Notsure

Neutral:
Accountant, Gamma, Grendel, Hikari, Not_Mafia, MuttonChopMagic

Very slightly scummish:
Klick

Slightly scummish:
DeathRowKitty, NotTheRealPaul

I'd vote NotTheRealPaul - but I see he's softing a PR. This implies that he's unlikely to be a plain vanilla Townie... which means that getting an actual lynch on him is a high-stakes bet. If he's as scummy as he looks, all is well, but if he actually

is

a PR... well, the last thing we want to do on Day One is lynch a power role.

So, backup time, I guess.

VOTE: DeathRowKitty

[CCC]

I really like the way drk engaged with raya and gamma in these posts, mcm. So I'd take him out of your pool, if I were you.

If we all think and/or know not_mafia plans on being unreadable and useless through the whole game, I'd as soon be rid of him now.

I don't know. His engagement with Raya was, well, pretty much aggression more than anything else. As for Gamma - well, if DRK

does

flip scum, then I would imagine that Gamma would be more likely to be Town - I don't think they'd both be scum together.

As for not_mafia... I can't say you're wrong there, as a Townie who never contributes and never votes is pretty much a gift for Mafia. But I do think it would be a better idea to vote for someone who you actually think has a good chance of being Mafia, as opposed to the dead-null player.

[CCC]

no, we don't completely ignore him because he softed pr
if he doesn't do anything actually useful then he climbs the lynch bar
if he's at l-1 and claims something believable, that is when we lynch elsewhere
I am the only vote on him atm I believe, that's not exactly biological warfare
also, to get all altruistic and shit, but understand
we should not be teaching beginners softing having a pr after 1 vote = a good plan

Carefully hidden in this rhyme is a very good point. You're wrong on one thing, though - NotTheRealPaul has two votes now, so far as I could spot (NotSure put on the other one).

But that doesn't change your main point. Frivolous PR softing should not be encouraged. Also, I'm sure the Mafia's picked up on it already - he has very little to lose by being a little more explicit at this point.

VOTE: NotTheRealPaul

And that, I believe, makes three votes.

[CCC]

As for not_mafia... I can't say you're wrong there, as a Townie who never contributes and never votes is pretty much a gift for Mafia. But I do think it would be a better idea to vote for someone who you actually think has a good chance of being Mafia, as opposed to the dead-null player.

When do you turn on the dead-null player?

An excellent question. And a difficult one.

...I'm not sure. But, for the moment, I'm willing to give him a few more days (not Days, until about Friday or Saturday) of needling in the hope of getting content out of him before I even consider some sort of policy lynch.

Or, alternatively, if you've got a lot of strong Townreads and few actual Scumreads, then you'd have a case for him as Scum even in the absense of input directly from him.

Or, I guess, if you have no actual scumreads, the silent player would be a better choice than not.

[CCC]

I agree on giving him a few days, he hasn't *actually* proven useless yet. But towns being so good at hitting scum Day 1 with their reads sounds like a fun hypothetical world that doesn't exist.

I live in hope and optimism.

And I

have

seen scum identified and hit on Day One. It is possible.

[CCC]

i am sick and not reading things

Get well soon!

[CCC]

That said- I do think you are wrong on backhand.

I know what you are saying here but I'm inclined to believe that you are town reading Back b/c he voiced belief in your claim. Which could mean you are town, as I would probably avoid weighing in if a scum buddy started faking town tells. Backhand probably jumped on the moment to start forming some early reads without having to put extra effort to "find" them. That makes more sense then a S/S interaction.

You know, I can't find anything in here that I can say with

certainty

is wrong. Backhand did seem to agree with my thoughts, and this may well have been a strong factor in my Townread of him. I'm pretty sure it was at least

a

factor...

It's not impossible that he could be scum trying to ghost my reads and follow along. I still think he feels like Town who just happens to agree with me, but I may be wrong on that...

[CCC]

I really like the way drk engaged with raya and gamma in these posts, mcm. So I'd take him out of your pool, if I were you.

If we all think and/or know not_mafia plans on being unreadable and useless through the whole game, I'd as soon be rid of him now.

I'm uncomfortable with how you've moved from MCM policy lynch to N_M policy lynch rather than ~ actual scum lynches ~

...you know, I hadn't noticed this before. Now, I can understand wanting a policy lynch on someone, but... two in a row? That

does

seem a tad excessive.

[CCC]

no, we don't completely ignore him because he softed pr
if he doesn't do anything actually useful then he climbs the lynch bar
if he's at l-1 and claims something believable, that is when we lynch elsewhere
I am the only vote on him atm I believe, that's not exactly biological warfare
also, to get all altruistic and shit, but understand
we should not be teaching beginners softing having a pr after 1 vote = a good plan

Carefully hidden in this rhyme is a very good point. You're wrong on one thing, though - NotTheRealPaul has two votes now, so far as I could spot (NotSure put on the other one).

But that doesn't change your main point. Frivolous PR softing should not be encouraged. Also, I'm sure the Mafia's picked up on it already - he has very little to lose by being a little more explicit at this point.

VOTE: NotTheRealPaul

And that, I believe, makes three votes.

Don't like this, registers as rolefishing.

...looking over my own post in hindsight, I can see how it might seem that way, taken out of context.

In

context, however, I think it's clear that rolefishing was not my goal.

If you take a look at my previous vote, I had already been considering NotTheRealPaul fairly scummy. My scumreads are still light - but nonetheless, his was the strongest. At that time, however, I hadn't voted for him, because he'd softed a PR - and the last thing I want to do is lynch a genuine Town Power Role.

Now, let's consider some maths.

We have thirteen players, and for the moment I will assume three Mafia. Let me go further and assume two Town PRs. Then the field would consist of:

Mafiax3
Town PRx2
Vanilla Towniex8

Now, NotTheRealPaul must fit into one of these categories; that is, he is either Mafia, or Town PR, or Vanilla Townie. Before taking into account any scumminess in his posts, the base probabilites of each group are approx. 23% chance of Mafia, 15% chance of Town PR, and 62% chance of Vanilla Townie. But he felt some pressure, and softed a Town PR role. This changes things.

Specifically; Mafia can claim either a Vanilla Townie role, or a Town PR role. Let's assume that Town roles never lie; and Mafia roles have a 50% chance of pretending to be a Vanilla Townie, and a 50% chance of pretending to be a Town PR. So. We know that he has softed a Town PR. What is he, really?

He cannot be a Vanilla Townie, because Vanilla Townies do not lie by softing a PR. He is therefore either Mafia, or a Town PR. What I want to know, therefore, is the probability (before factoring in any scumminess in his posts) that he is Mafia, *given* that he softed a Town PR. Using Bayes' Theroem:

P(Mafia | Softed PR) = P(softed PR | Mafia)*P(Mafia)/P(Softed PR)

P(Softed PR) = 2/13+(0.5*3/13) = 7/26
P(Mafia) = 3/13
P(softed PR | Mafia) = 0.5

Thus, P(Mafia | Softed PR) = (3/36)/(/7/26) = 3/7 = approx. 43% (with the remaining 57% going to the odds of being a genuine PR)

All the working (including the assumptions I made to get there) is in the spoiler, but, long version short; before considering any other scumminess in his post, looking only at the fact that of the PR claim, and not even considering its timing; his odds of being Mafia went up from 23% to 43% - mainly because he cut out the chances of being a vanilla Townie (I'm assuming Townies wouldn't lie about that). At the same time, however, his odds of being a genuine PR went up - from about 15% to around 57%.

Now, on the basis of the 57% chance of being a genuine PR, I had originally decided I shouldn't vote him - despite him still being my top scumread. Mainly because losing a PR would be a disaster, while losing a Vanilla Townie - well, it wouldn't exactly be

great

, but it would be a good deal less bad. However, MuttonChopMagic bought up a good point - that, by refusing to vote for someone merely because he softed a PR, I would be setting a bad precedent for the future.

I considered his point. What harm could my vote do? It could be a part of a lynch on NotTheRealPaul. But we were a long way from there. To even reach L-1, at least two other Townies would need to vote with me - and an actual lynch would require the aid of at least one more Townie on top of that.

It could put enough pressure on him to force him to claim. Forcing a PR to claim is a bad thing, because the Mafia then know who to target at night. But... he'd already softed his PR. Mafia already know who he is. Him suddenly jumping up and saying "I'm the Cop" or "I'm the Doctor" or whatever isn't going to make things a one bit worse - Mafia don't currently know

what

role he is, but they do know

who

softed a PR, and - well, that's pretty bad, but that's also

done

. There's no putting the genie back in the bottle now.

So, in the end, I concluded that there was minimal danger in voting for my top scumread, despite his claim, and promptly did so.

[CCC]

Town
notsure
CCC
Cheetory6
Accountant
Backhand
DeathRowKitty
Grendel (null)
Hiraki (null)
Not_Mafia (null)
MuttonChopMagic
VOTE: NotTheRealPaul (top scumread)

...you know, I really like this readslist. I don't agree 100% with it, but it makes a lot of sense.

[CCC]

Alright I promised some analysis didnt I? So Im up at 3:45 AM slaving away through ISO's, so there is a slight possibility I mix things up.

I really don't think people would mind if you waited a couple of hours and got some sleep first.

Well Ive been looking at ISO's and so far this is what Ive got. List goes town at top scum at bottom.

Accountant, Grendel, DRK
Klick, CCC, Hikari
Notsure

So my townreads im pretty confident in.

The null reads generally havent posted much except CCC. So I mostly like CCC's post and would probably put him in town except in a lot of his posts he says, "well I could see scum!person, but could also be town!person" and its kinda waffly and it just pings me hard. Its my only real problem with his posting, but its mostly alleviated when he made that readlist.

Yeah, I do tend to waffle a bit when I have weak reads. I think it's because I don't like to overstate my case too much.

In some of my early games, I played with a player who would take his top scumread and really nail it to the ground, yelling to everyone that "X is scum!!!!" and pushing, and pushing

hard

, for everyone to vote with him - until he got another scumread, and hammered that one just as hard. Now, it's kind of a playstyle thing, but - well, I want to make sure that when I'm sure enough to push someone

hard

, then that is noticeably different from my weaker, early reads.

That leaves notsure who I slight scumread. Like his initial scumreads of DRK and Klick seemed to simply be because they disagreed with him on theory and pointed out why they thought his opinion on theory was foolish. It wasnt so much an OMGUS, but he obviously felt threatened and lashed out especially in DRK's case. His lashing out seems to be a way to take percieved pressure off him. Now his vote on me, was fair. I mean I failed reading and brain derped hard, but I thought it was hypocritical thag he said I half-ass paid attention when he so clearly failed to read properly in his argument with DRK. I admit that might be a reach. Rn im reading more of a newb!scum because of his reactions to percieved pressure.

Will do another post looking through a few more.

...my top scumread is scumreading one of my townreads. Somehow, I'm not surprised.

Alright its round 2:

Cheetory, Backhand
NotMafia, Raya
MCM, GE

Once again Im pretty confident in my townreads. Dont see reason to explain as of now.

Honestly, I'd really like to see those explanations. Knowing why you're Townreading someone is at least as informative as knowing why you're scumreading someone. (Also, if - as seems more that possible - you flip scum, then looking over your opinions on everyone will be very helpful in finding the other Mafia; by the same token, if you flip Town, then seeing the Townreads of a known Townie would surely be helpful to Town)

The null reads are quite simply theyve done nothing. As far as NotMafia I think he is only the lynch if we have no other hood leads as CCC or Backhand said.

Now MCM and GE arent really scum reads but theyre not dead null like raya and nm, so I put them a little lower. So I didnt like MCM's opening few posts. Someone said his pbpa seemed like a townie reaction, but I disagree it felt like he was overcompensating. Like he was scum trying to scare some of us out of SRing him lest he tunnel us. Although recently his posting has pinged town to me so he isnt quite scum but he isnt dead null.

GE is here mostly because of his readlist. So while he was catching up b4 his readlist, he called CCC out (kinda) saying he thought he was rolefishing, but lo and behold he is one of his top town reads when the list is out.

Huh. Now that you mention it - I didn't notice it at the time, but that

does

seem a little odd.

Now I dont believe he really mentions backhand at all and yet backhand is still a tr for him. IDK like I think im reaching but its something I noticed. His push on cheetory pinged me really hard, but the rest of his play is okay.

So that should be everybody. My SRs arent very strong so IDK who'd I'd vote rn. It'd be between MCM and Notsure. I do want to go back and look at DRK's case on GE as it confuses me, but Im too tired atm. If someone could explain it concisely and simply (so MCM prob not u) that would be nice.

Looking back I realized all my SRs are people who are voting me so it does look pretty ONGUSy. But ehh, my reads are what they are.

And ifs prob time I sleep as its 4:30 AM here

Hmmmmm. So, MCM who's not "really scum reads" is competing with notsure, your "slight scumread" for the position of top scumread. This kind of makes sense for Day One... it does mean that all the reads you've explained are the weak ones, while the ones you're pretty confident in, your townreads, you explicitly

haven't

explained.

If you'd like to explain those, it would be very much appreciated.

[CCC]

This indicates you aren't paying attention to things. It's a proven fact that scum don't have to read the Game as closely as they know everyone's alignment.

whoever told you this was wrong and bad at the game

explain?

Like I guess what GE said only applies to bad scum as good scum would pay attention to the game more knowing who theh can easily push.

So like I get it if he thinks Im newbscum who skimmed, and it would make sense as Ive never played scum before and this isnt my normal tone. Note: This isnt a scumslim Im just saying I can see how it makes sense from GE's POV.

Why is your tone different to normal, then?

[CCC]

I think the scumtell on Paul for not paying attention is really, really bad and I refuse to enable a wagon based on it. Feel free to talk to me if it's any other reason why Paul is scum.

Personally, I first started suspecting him of scumminess back in post 194 - where his sudden, unexplained reversal of a suspicion started setting off a warning bell.

...I think most of the rest of the reasons for scumreading him have been gone over by others.

[CCC]

His characterization of town is sketchy. You are an experienced player and I'm sure you know enough to know that town is not in fact hyperattentive machines at all times. Furthermore, mafia can skim and wagon who they like but whether they do so is dependent on their personality and not their alignment. They have to read up anyway to justify their wagons.

Yeah, this makes sense to me. Some people pay more attention, some pay less. But it's down to the person, not to the role.

[CCC]

I mean, I think it would depend on the quality of the scumplayer and how hard they're trying to keep up with the game.
There are some instances where scum is just going to casually follow along and just do whatever they can to coast along without paying attention, others where the scum just says whatever comes to mind and doesn't worry about how they're perceived [a little more rare I think], but I think any scumplayer who's putting in any kind of effort into the game and cares about how they're being perceived is going to have to put in significantly more effort into reading the game to try and create a train of thought that's consistent and seems real. It's generally harder for people to fake their mindset than to just inhabit it.

So, tldr: accountant is probably right that scum with any kind of chops is going to spend more time reading than posting, while town is probably going to say things without thinking about it as much.

So, you're saying scum is hardworking while Town is lazy?

In terms of where I'm at right now, I'm being pretty lazy!

...oh. I see what you did there.

My lazy reads would be that one of notsure/realpaul is probably scum because something feels off there, but I should really throw some effort at trying to parse what's going on there
as the tone of Realpaul's posts feel fake to me [which could be a general tone thing] and the over the top nature of notsure's posts feel fake to me [which could also be a general tone thing].

Hmmm. When you get to real posting, this is worth taking a closer look at, I think. (I already have my own opinions on their alignments, but I would rather like to see your views as well).

[CCC]

And lastly, I DONT JUDGE YOU FOR BEING DEFENSIVE. well I kinda do. Its that there was no actual pressure. You are so concerned with implied pressure, not even a single vote, and you lashed out. So yea its cuz you were extremely over defensive.

I can't help but notice that you were the one who started softing claims when there was - what, one, maybe two votes on you?

So, yeah, that was pretty over-defensive of you already.

[CCC]

But it's weird that people go after people based on so little at the beginning of the game.

Mainly because there's so

little

to base a read

on

. You base your read on whatever's strongest. And on Day One, 'strongest' isn't much...

[CCC]

I gotta go, but throwing this out there now

Not_Mafia bigbenwd --- ???
DeathRowKitty --- Been gone a while...
Cheetory6 --- notsure
Hiraki Raya36 - slightly scummy, detached observer, answered the questionnaire with little content, making it harder to judge them beginning posts
CCC --- still want an answer on that possible slip-up post
Grendel --- Where you at?
MuttonChopMagic --- Mutton seems Town to me.
notsure -- obviously scum (yes, it's a joke)
Backhand --- Reads kind of null, maybe slightly scummy. makes some good posts that discuss whether players seem town aligned in their motivations, puts a vote on MCM, talks it out, but just leaves the vote...hmm.
Accountant --- Seems pretty Town, other than saying Town doesn't pay attention, but mafia does. Townies in general pay attention when they put someone in the spotlight. strange, but probably a misunderstanding or something.
NotTheRealPaul -- how do i say this notsure. have to think about him some more now.
Klick --- is this person even playing?
Gamma Emerald -- strong town read. I'm just going to jump in his pocket, if he doesn't mind.

Gave an answer to the post in question when I got up to Gamma's querying of it. Let me know if you think I need to add anything more.

I disagree with you on notsure - you still look Townish to me. (Yes, I know it was a joke. Still can't help but wonder slightly...)

I also notice that two of my three scumreads (DRK and Klick) seem to have since become the poster boys for non-participation. Alright, not to the extent of Not_Mafia, but still. (And apparently a replacement for Klick is already being sought, so... he's not playing, anymore).

[CCC]

I think notmafia should participate in the game, since we've gotten one post from the slot the whole game. Not sure why that's confusing.

Three posts. All equally empty and uninformative.

Not_Mafia! We need to hear from you!

[CCC]

Well, I was going to do a PBPA on NTRP, but I only got two posts in and I realized he's either town or is playing a deeper game that his other posts don't really back up (no offense, I hope)

I think NotTheRealPaul is probably scum. The selfvote + questionnaire answering felt like a really bad attempt to fit in/insert self into game and their post was more or less an isolated island that didn't touch on what was being discussed around them. This is scummy because mafia find it way easier to put themselves into a game through easy to fake stuff like selfvote jokes or answering NAI questions rather than put themselves in the midst of real discussion.

VOTE: NotTheRealPaul

oh crap you caught me

Let me just hop onto the maf thread and ask cheetory what to do.

This is a townslip. Could be fake, but like CCC, I doubt it.

I still think it's a poor attempt at humour, which makes it pretty much entirely non-alignment-indicative. The ability to make bad jokes is not exclusive to Town.

[CCC]

...you know, I hadn't noticed this before. Now, I can understand wanting a policy lynch on someone, but... two in a row? That

does

seem a tad excessive.

If I'm down for one, I don't know why it would be weird to be down for another. But mostly I just wanted to get a better sense of what they are actually thinking from both of them, which mcm has given (think he's getting better at the gimmick) and notmafia obviously has not.

Being down for policy lynches I can understand. Being

only

down for policy lynches looks like a bad sign to me.

FYI, I checked--you have go back 13 mini normal games to find one where scum was lynched Day 1. So town using their scumhunting instincts instead of policy isn't some huge upgrade.

...huh. That's... if we have three in thirteen scum players, then I'd expect to see scum lynched on average three times in the last thirteen games. Not

once

.

I wonder if this statistic holds over a larger sample? If so, then it might well turn out that we have better odds of hitting scum on a random policy lynch than on a well-thought-out trying-to-hit-scum lynch.

[CCC]

Spoiler:

We have thirteen players, and for the moment I will assume three Mafia. Let me go further and assume two Town PRs. Then the field would consist of:

Mafiax3
Town PRx2
Vanilla Towniex8

Now, NotTheRealPaul must fit into one of these categories; that is, he is either Mafia, or Town PR, or Vanilla Townie. Before taking into account any scumminess in his posts, the base probabilites of each group are approx. 23% chance of Mafia, 15% chance of Town PR, and 62% chance of Vanilla Townie. But he felt some pressure, and softed a Town PR role. This changes things.

Specifically; Mafia can claim either a Vanilla Townie role, or a Town PR role. Let's assume that Town roles never lie; and Mafia roles have a 50% chance of pretending to be a Vanilla Townie, and a 50% chance of pretending to be a Town PR. So. We know that he has softed a Town PR. What is he, really?

He cannot be a Vanilla Townie, because Vanilla Townies do not lie by softing a PR. He is therefore either Mafia, or a Town PR. What I want to know, therefore, is the probability (before factoring in any scumminess in his posts) that he is Mafia, *given* that he softed a Town PR. Using Bayes' Theroem:

P(Mafia | Softed PR) = P(softed PR | Mafia)*P(Mafia)/P(Softed PR)

P(Softed PR) = 2/13+(0.5*3/13) = 7/26
P(Mafia) = 3/13
P(softed PR | Mafia) = 0.5

Thus, P(Mafia | Softed PR) = (3/36)/(/7/26) = 3/7 = approx. 43% (with the remaining 57% going to the odds of being a genuine PR)

Ooooogh, I messed up the math spoiler in my previous post. I guess I should use the Preview function more often.

Here it is, fixed and easier to read.

[CCC]

But that's not the point I'm making. And you're an asshole. This game is toxic.

...actually, I'm done. This isn't fun...I don't even care about solving the game anymore.

REQUESTING A REPLACEMENT

...okay,

that

was unexpected.

Huh. Well. I guess that means we have two players awaiting replacement, then.

[CCC]

I wasn't trying to be an asshole, but now I will be for a second:

Shocking

that the guy who uses snowflake as a slam is the first to bail on the game.

Don't be that person. Town or scum, there's no reason to be deliberately rude to anyone.

[CCC]

I feel the town power level is usually 3-5 PRs in a 13p game, especially if it's 10:3.

Okay, reworking the math on the assumption of 4 PRs instead:

Spoiler:

Mafiax3
Town PRx4
Vanilla Towniex6

Now, NotTheRealPaul must fit into one of these categories; that is, he is either Mafia, or Town PR, or Vanilla Townie. Before taking into account any scumminess in his posts, the base probabilites of each group are approx. 23% chance of Mafia, 31% chance of Town PR, and 46% chance of Vanilla Townie. But he felt some pressure, and softed a Town PR role. This changes things.

Specifically; Mafia can claim either a Vanilla Townie role, or a Town PR role. Let's assume that Town roles never lie; and Mafia roles have a 50% chance of pretending to be a Vanilla Townie, and a 50% chance of pretending to be a Town PR. So. We know that he has softed a Town PR. What is he, really?

He cannot be a Vanilla Townie, because Vanilla Townies do not lie by softing a PR. He is therefore either Mafia, or a Town PR. What I want to know, therefore, is the probability (before factoring in any scumminess in his posts) that he is Mafia, *given* that he softed a Town PR. Using Bayes' Theroem:

P(Mafia | Softed PR) = P(softed PR | Mafia)*P(Mafia)/P(Softed PR)

P(Softed PR) = 4/13+(0.5*3/13) = 11/26
P(Mafia) = 3/13
P(softed PR | Mafia) = 0.5

Thus, P(Mafia | Softed PR) = (3/26)/(11/26) = 3/11 = approx. 27% (with the remaining 73% going to the odds of being a genuine PR)

...huh. That actually changes things. That changes things a

lot

.

In short, under the assumption of 4 PRs (and a 50% chance of any of the presumed three Mafia claiming PR) then almost all of the probability space left by eliminating the (now only six) Townies goes into the odds of Paul being a genuine PR.

That... seems to push my worries of accidentally lynching a genuine PR into sharp relief.

On the

other

hand, unvoting him merely for a PR claim genuinely does set a bad precedent, I can see the precedent as bad...

On the

other[/i[ hand, it seems that most people who were voting him took their votes off. So, I don't see any urgency in making this decision. I have time to think about it a bit more.

[quote="In [url=viewtopic.php?p=9292638#p9292638]

Town
notsure
CCC
Cheetory6
Accountant
Backhand
DeathRowKitty
Grendel (null)
Hiraki (null)
Not_Mafia (null)
MuttonChopMagic
VOTE: NotTheRealPaul (top scumread)

...you know, I really like this readslist. I don't agree 100% with it, but it makes a lot of sense.

Can you talk with me about this? How does it make sense?[/quote]

I'm Townreading your top three Townreads and my top scumread is your top scumread. Beyond that, we start to differ, but at that point I think were talking very minor differences in any case...

Honestly, the only way I could find this list in any way suspicious is if I thought you were scum ghosting my reads. (Which is a strong possibility, but I haven't seen anything else from you that looked scummy...)

[CCC]

CCC you seemed to have a lot to say to me. Let me know if I missed anything.

I think you've covered the most important point - that is, you've given at least a brief explanation of your Townreads. There were a couple of mostly minor points that you missed - the most important one being here - but you should really get some sleep before answering them.

So my town reads. I mean without going into too much detail, I feel they've been doing the most to further the game. Asking questions, fostering discussion, etc. Some, like DRK who havent really done too much came off as genuine. Although since a lot from her was theory I may need to rethink that. But thats the gist of my townreads. If you want like post nunbers or specific readons for a person ask, but Id prefer not to have to go back through each and every one.

Hmmmm. You've mentioned DRK... of the others, I think I'm most curious about Accountant and Grendel. Could you expand a bit further on them, perhaps?

Preferably

after

getting some sleep.

You made a fair point about my soft, but I said pretty quickly it was a mistake/a dumb thing to do. Like Ive already owned up to it, I shouldnt have done it, and it was a play made mostly out of annoyance in hope it would get you off my back. Looking back though, it was dumb, and I kinda regret it.

If you are really a PR, then yes, yes it was. If you are really Mafia, which is still looking fairly likely, albeit less likely than it was, then... well, then I'm not sure whether it was a good idea or not. We'll see, I guess.

From what I gather your vote was a pressure vote on me yes?

No, I voted on you because you were my genuine top scumread. You still are, as a matter of fact. (You'll notice my vote hasn't moved).

Also, Im not quite following the backhand lynch. I read him as town when going through his ISO, but maybe I missed something that pinged everyone?

Is this your attempt at a distraction?

I'm also getting a Townier than null impression from Backhand, personally; I am having some trouble figuring out what he did to ping so many people, too.

[CCC]

I wonder if this statistic holds over a larger sample? If so, then it might well turn out that we have better odds of hitting scum on a random policy lynch than on a well-thought-out trying-to-hit-scum lynch.

I got to 50 games before I got bored--town lynch 39/50 (and 1 no lynch). Which is better than 0/13 obviously, but not great. I think the danger with policy lynches is that they can happen with a day of low content, but that's not the case here. 10 out of 13 slots have been pretty well engaged.

That gives a scum-lynch probability of 10/50, or 20%. The odds of a randomly chosen player being scum (given three scum in a thirteen-player game) are 3/13, or about 23%.

So, the odds of a day-one scum lynch are looking pretty close to random. Presumably because of the lack of Day One information to work with, I'm guessing.

FWIW, I also would guess that the incidence of mafia claiming town PR is closer to 1/3 than 1/2, but that's definitely a part of site meta I am not very up on.

If I work this assumption into my math, with 4 PRs and 3 Mafia, then the odds of NotTheRealPaul being Mafia after his claim actually

drop

slightly - to 20%. And leaving him 80% odds of being a PR.

...you know what? NotTheRealPaul is still my top scumread. But I still think I'm going to unvote until such time as I've had a chance to consider this a bit more thoroughly.

UNVOTE: NotTheRealPaul

[CCC]

I'm Townreading your top three Townreads and my top scumread is your top scumread. Beyond that, we start to differ, but at that point I think were talking very minor differences in any case...

Honestly, the only way I could find this list in any way suspicious is if I thought you were scum ghosting my reads. (Which is a strong possibility, but I haven't seen anything else from you that looked scummy...)

Okay. I wanted to get an explanation since my reads were fairly unexplained. I thought you were trying to pocket me.

Well, some explanations of your reads

would

be good. Though that's more in order to be sure that

you

aren't just ghosting

me

than anything else.

[CCC]

why is cheetory a town read for you
both gamma and ccc an answer would b cool

It's pretty weak, but it's mainly because he was the subject of the first three-vote wagon. I was pretty sure there was scum on that wagon - I still think that's very possible, by the way, though two-thirds of that wagon is now completely missing - which would imply that he was Town getting piled on by Scum.

And then he... well, he went V/LA. What little he's saying while he pokes his nose in looks kind of reasonable and non-scummy.

I guess what I'm saying is, he was mainly an early Townread who hasn't moved much on my list while he's away for a few days.

[CCC]

why is cheetory a town read for you
both gamma and ccc an answer would b cool

Uhh I forgot
He kinda feels genuine to start

Okay, now

this

is starting to look suspicious. Your readslist was close to mine, which had been posted before yours, and now you're saying you 'forgot' why you Townread someone on that same list?

Well, then. In order to prove that your readslist is genuinely

your

readslist and not a lazy-scum copy of mine that just shuffled a few central names around, can I ask you to please explain your reads on... um... let's go with Notsure, NotTheRealPaul, and DeathRowKitty. Top of the list, bottom of the list, and one that's not in the same place on your list as it is on mine.

[CCC]

I explained NTRP in a past post

Could you perhaps link the post in question?

I dropped that case and bumped him up one spot
Mutton is my lowest now

Fair enough, reads do change. (If you could explain your read on Mutton, too, that would be great).

DRK I feel their pushes are genuine but I don't really regard that as grounds for a hard townread. I've made pushes on things I legitimately believed were scummy as scum before.
Notsure is just obvious newbtown. Not much to say there. I could point out specific post I like if you really want.

Hmmmmm. I think that pointing out specific posts you like would be a really good idea. "Obvious newbtown" is a very easy thing to say when you don't really know what the case is.

[CCC]

PenguinPower replaces Klick.
SlingshotWaffles replaces notsure.
Nero Cain replaces Accountant.

...well. That's going to change this game quite a bit.

[CCC]

Okay, now this is starting to look suspicious. Your readslist was close to mine, which had been posted before yours, and now you're saying you 'forgot' why you Townread someone on that same list?

This is terrible.

553 doesn't sit well with me either.

Wow - didn't see the Accountant replace coming until I did my research. Yikes.

Vote: CCC

I think I'll start here today, especially based on recent postings.

Because I'm starting to suspect that Gamma Emerald (playing Mafia) copied my readslist, juggled a few names in the middle, and presented it as his own, instead of generating his own fake reads?

[CCC]

so to be clear
you have a good reason to vote yourself my dear?

yup obviously I voted myself because I know Im scum and I want towncred since I led the wagon on myself.

So when I flip scum, then obviously im like conftown because I led the wagon so then I dont need to worry about being mislynched

/sarcasm

UNVOTE:

now town cant get distracted over something irrelevant (IMO) and we can have real discussion

Or is this somehow useful to town? Please explain why because I am newb.

Seems like an over reaction/AtE.

"But I'm also inclined to think DRK is trying to start a wagon to direct away from my read on them, as shit and/or personal as people might think it to be."

is

"But I'm also inclined to think DRK is trying to start a wagon to direct away from my read on them, as shit and/or personal as people might think my read on DRK to be.

Not sure can you explain this? DRK hasnt even voted you Im not sure how he is trying to start a wagon on you

This indicates you aren't paying attention to things. It's a proven fact that scum don't have to read the Game as closely as they know everyone's alignment.
Huh, I forget who taught me that. Proof I've been around a long time by now.

This was why I scumread NTRP MCM

...okay, that makes sense.

[CCC]

His avi really isn't a shade of green?

It really isn't. It's genuinely blue.

[CCC]

I already town read accountant so idrc
but it's obviously purple you hillbillies

Nah, purple would require that it have approximately equal proportions blue and red. It's got just over half as much red as blue (and about three-quarters as much green as blue). I guess you could call it a very bluish turquoise...

[CCC]

Catching up vut CCC i truthfully dont get your question in 520

You mean this 520?

In the post I quoted, you said that this "wasn't your normal tone". My question, therefore, is "why not?"

No it wasnt a distraction I was asking a genuine question because I townread backhand

So do I. Which is why I don't get why you were asking

me

about the case against him?

As fas as accountant they came out really tryhard town like cheetory said at me. Like my initial read was slight scum, but like looking back my view was colored by dislike at their push. And ive since switched them to town

And like Grendel I kinda disnt like when he started that RQS because DRK made a good point IMO that it helps scum blend in. But a lot of his recent posting seems to be advancing the game state, discussing reads, etc.

Like im looking back and the fact that I have only three scumreads is worrying. Cuz there is no way I nailed the three scum so I prob need to go back and look at my town/null reads.

Hmmmmm. I'm going to have to look back on this in Day two or three. Thank you for explaining them.

[CCC]

PenguinPower replaces Klick.
SlingshotWaffles replaces notsure.
Nero Cain replaces Accountant.

...well. That's going to change this game quite a bit.

Oh really?

Why?

Three out of thirteen players were replaced all at once. Wouldn't that make a bit of a difference?

Welcome, by the way! If you have some tentative reads ready, I think we'd all probably like to see them.

[CCC]

Okay, now this is starting to look suspicious. Your readslist was close to mine, which had been posted before yours, and now you're saying you 'forgot' why you Townread someone on that same list?

This is terrible.

553 doesn't sit well with me either.

Wow - didn't see the Accountant replace coming until I did my research. Yikes.

Vote: CCC

I think I'll start here today, especially based on recent postings.

Because I'm starting to suspect that Gamma Emerald (playing Mafia) copied my readslist, juggled a few names in the middle, and presented it as his own, instead of generating his own fake reads?

Do you think this is a reasonable argument?

I'm not sure.

At first, I thought Gamma was Town who just read most people in a similar way to me. But then, when he couldn't explain one of his own reads at all (the one on Cheetory) I began to get suspicious. I asked him to explain some of his other reads, in case he had just forgotten one - and he explained his read on NotTheRealPaul, the one who was scumread by a whole pile of people.

Aside from that, I haven't seen anything scummish from him, but I'm having a lot of trouble finding any reason why Town would present a faked readslist.

Therefore:

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[CCC]

Paul is probably a PR SW

He softed that right?

I still SR him, but he's not a lynch for today.

I am in complete agreement with this stance.

[CCC]

I'm giving up on you

What are your current reads?

[CCC]

CCC :

Oh Im trying something new this game

It wasnt speocifically for you. Maybe I screwed up the wording and you thought that. It was an open question to everyone.

At the end of a post full of replies to me? I didn't particularly anyone else answering your question, maybe everyone thought as I did?

Do you find it sus that waffles' SRs are "safe" SRs? Theyre both SR by others, and waffles even agrees on lynchpool. Curious because of your SR on GE for similar reasons.

Not really, no.

Gamma Emerald strikes me as suspicious on two fronts - firstly, the top and bottom of his readslist looks almost exactly like my previously posted one, with just a few names muddled in the middle. Secondly, he couldn't explain his townread on Cheetory when asked.

Waffle's reads, on the other hand, are

vastly

different to mine. I'm Townreading Backhand, I know I'm Town, I'm scumreading Gamma, Hiraki and Nero are kindof null... the only read that I agree with Waffles on is that you are Mafia. I'm not sure if Waffles is copying anyone else, but he's certainly not copying me.

And also VOTE: Gamma He was kinda a scumread for me earlier and Im gonna trust CCC here. That said if someone could explain the backhand case, Im willing to switch votes

...the fact that one of my top two scumreads is voting for the other is a bit concerning. But we're still a long way from a lynch, so I guess it's not

too

risky to be bussing your scumbuddy right now... or perhaps one or the other of you is actually Town.

Hmmmmmmm.

[CCC]

I don't remember what read I promised I would explain anymore ;-; help

You did at one point say you would cover your read on Backhand.

[CCC]

Page 11
CCC posted a lot. It all seemed fine but unexciting from what was mostly a skim, though I must say I enjoyed his MCM impersonation.

Thank you, I wasn't sure if anyone would notice that.

Page 15
It definitely feels like CCC has talked about "scared" vs "sacred" a lot. Does it just feel like that because I'm reading all of these pages at once? Is it at all alignment-indicative if it's true? I don't know! I guess probably not!! Who has time for thinking when they have a billion pages to read!!!

It's very important to be clear and unambiguous in such matters.

This vote has my attention in a bad way. I should probably reread page 14 more closely to get a better grasp of context, but letting NTRP off this easily in order to vote for someone for not yet posting after replacing in definitely fits the narrative I was considering.

His previous vote wasn't on Paul. It was on MuttonChopMagic.

Ooookay, NTRP softed preeeetttty hard. Also, I wish CCC wouldn't make so many separate posts. It causes things to happen, like 17 pages popping up since I last posted anything useful.

I

do

tend to try to reply to one person at a time when catching up. I'm not sure that consolidating it all in one post would be any better, though - just as much to read, but bunched into fewer pages.

Page 16
Why are multiple people suggesting running someone up to teach them that softing a PR isn't good wtf

It's a bad thing for NTRP to have done in that situation as town regardless of whether or not he gets run up. And beginners probably don't usually soft PRs at 1 vote as scum anyway so...???


People I am referring to are MCM and CCC.

In context:

I had NotTheRealPaul as my top scumread. Then I saw that he had softed a PR and was reluctant to put my vote on him, just in case he

was

a PR after all.

MCM raised the very reasonable point that, at seven votes to lynch, there was absolutely nothing wrong with putting even a potential PR on three votes, if he was already being scumread. Since NTRP was

still

my top scumread, I agreed with this point, and placed my vote.

The intention was never to teach him that softing a PR isn't good. The intention was not to let myself be too controlled by a vague, unsubstantiated claim that's almost impossible to falsify, and rather to vote for the person I felt most likely to be Mafia.

A little meh about this (having such a specific condition on posting is kind of strange and an easy excuse, in theory at least) but I suspect that's not so relevant 12 pages later.

He did post his reads later, yes. They were a pretty good copy of my previously posted reads.

Page 17
This followed by this two posts later is also ???

It is rather, yes. I did not take nearly enough notice of this at the time.

I think I've lost focus. I might finish reading today but hold off on being *actually useful* until tomorrow. Bite me. (Don't actually bite me pls)

I hope you come back and catch up with brilliant focus! Bonus points if you identify the entire scumteam.

[CCC]

MuttonChopMagic - could you please not use the same avatar as Gamma Emerald? It makes reading through the thread very annoying.

[CCC]

@CCC Looks like a misunderstanding. Will try to be more clear next time.

I'm sure it was a misunderstanding. However, I do find it interesting that you do not appear to be showing any interest in actually pushing for an

answer

to that question.

[CCC]

Okay let's play a game, it's called.
Why is Penguin scum or why is Penguin town?
And if you don't take a side then you're being antitown.
Okay?
Cool.

I had a weak early scumread on the Klick slot. So far, PenguinPower has done nothing to change that read. So I still weakly scumread the slot, but would prefer to leave my vote on one of my stronger scumreads.

[CCC]

I did actually check. Town has lynched scum 11 out of the last 50 games. That's more of a persuade-cc argument, but still.

Just to split hairs here - you said earlier that the last 50 games had 39 Town-lynches and one no-lynch, which would mean only 10 scum-lynches.

Which is close enough to the theoretical random-lynch value that I honestly don't know, on only a 50-game sample, whether a random first-day lynch is better or worse than a non-random one. But either way, it's pretty close.

[CCC]

Dayvig:SlingshotWaffles

Now, if the first word of that had been 'vote', then it would have been useful content, which could be used to form a sort of barebones idea of what sort of alignment you might potentially be.

Do you have any reads on anyone?

[CCC]

These are the reads that I went away with the other day:

Cheetory6, Gamma Emerald,

Slingshot, nero, MuttonChopMagic, NotTheRealPaul,

CCC, DeathRowKitty, ///// Not_Mafia, Penguin Power,

Hiraki, Backhand,

I want to lynch Backhand, but will consider compromising on {Not_Mafia, Penguin power, Hiraki}

Of the ones you would vote, the only one I consider a scumread is Penguin Power; Not_Mafia and Hiraki are null and Backhand looks Townish to me.

I can understand having Gamma on green - I thought he was Town too, until I figured out he'd swiped my readslist - but what's Paul doing so high up? Them and Backhand are, I think, the ones I find I disagree with you most about. (And myself, of course, but there I have privileged information proving my Townishness).

Oh, and MuttonChopMagic - thank you for changing your avatar to something not in use elsewhere in this game. It makes the thread a lot easier to read.

[CCC]

You would call that out--to be precise, the last 51 games had 39 town lynches, 11 scum lynches, and a no-lynch I threw out. And this is a random-in-outcome but useful in the long term move, not randomness for its own sake.

Ohhhhhh.

Then yes, if correct, that statistic (11 out of 51 scumlynches) implies that people are not significantly different to random in identifying scum on the first day. If correct. Which does mean that the long-term usefulness of lynching a Silent Player does rise to greater prominence.

[CCC]

This is me committing to metadiving Gamma tomorrow night.
If I fail then you should poke me in the face over and over until I start bleeding please and thank you.

Poke?

[CCC]

VOTE: Cheetory6

Based off page 1

What? You're finally reading the game and making reads?

Well, welcome!

...let's see. Looking over your ISO, you're scumreading Cheet and Gamma (with no reason given in the second case) and townreading Nero (again, no reason given).

Thank you for providing some small crumb that's more alignment indicative than a complete null!

[CCC]

You're at L-1 actually!

No, no, L-2. He'd just removed his own self-vote a few votes previous.

[CCC]

Is there any interest in Penguin?

there is actually alot of interest in PP rn.

What do you think of notsure/sling?

Mostly null, but with a slightly Townish lean.

Penguin, on the other hand, I find mostly null with a slightly scummish lean.

I'm more certain on the Gamma slot - his inability to explain his "own" reads looks like a fairly good scumtell, I think.

[CCC]

CCC

OK nope, now I'm going FULL BLOWN

why is CCC this high?

Because I'm Town?

I don't know how Cheetory's recognising that, mind you.

I'm not voting anywhere else if that's all Not_Mafia intends to post.
(:

200% Agree

This is a reason to unvote

Yeah, agreed. The fact that NTRP leapt off the Gamma Emerald wagon so early is reinforcing my theory that both of them are Mafia and NotTheRealPaul's vote was only intended to distance himself.

(Okay, the odds of me reliably finding two scum on day one are kind of low. But if one of them flips Mafia, then I'm probably going to park my vote on the other one tomorrow).

[CCC]

CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN THE BACKHAND CASE TO ME??? ive been asking for like 4 days.

Also VOTE: Not Mafia

Not my favorite wagon but no other case seems to be gaining any traction.

CCC here is my actual bote. Please read thank you. Im fine with GE just didnt look like anyone else wanted that lynch.

Are you trying to pretend you haven't seen the latest vote count? Gamma/kraska is the number two wagon after Not_Mafia. If you were to move from Not_Mafia to Gamma, then Gamma would be the top wagon.

[CCC]

My thoughts on the current top wagons:

Not_Mafia is a policy lynch. He's been pretty near silent. Then he put on two votes, claimed a gut scumread on Cheet and gave no explanation of the Gamma vote, and said Nero was town. That's a pretty pathetically minimal contribution to the state of the game, especially since having caught up, I suspect that the reason behind the Gamma vote was self-preservation (which is NAI because all roles benefit from self-preservation).

Gamma actually looks like scum for a variety of reasons, which I have gone over before.

So, I suspect that Not_Mafia is scum's mislynch for today. It's an easy wagon to push, since it's a policy lynch for a genuinely super-quiet player. It's also a wagon that does not reflect badly on scum-on-the-wagon if the slot flips Town. Therefore, I think that the only reason Not_Mafia's wagon has progressed so far, is that there is scum on it; if Not_Mafia is lynched today and flips Town, then I would recommend taking a very close look at everyone on that wagon tomorrow.

Currently, my vote is staying on Gamma/kraska77.

[CCC]

CCC your gamma case is simply that he could not explain reads right?

That's not the

whole

case, but it is an important part of the case.

Another part of the case is that you, my other top scumread, voted for him when there was no danger of a lynch and then took care to remove your vote well before he was in any danger of a lynch.

And no I dont really look at the VCs unless host/mod updates them frequently were they ar e on every page/every other page.

Interesting. You had the wagon pointed out to you

explicitly

, even replied to the post in question, and still want to stick to your policy lynch on Not_Mafia?

[CCC]

My thoughts on the current top wagons:

Not_Mafia is a policy lynch. He's been pretty near silent. Then he put on two votes, claimed a gut scumread on Cheet and gave no explanation of the Gamma vote, and said Nero was town. That's a pretty pathetically minimal contribution to the state of the game, especially since having caught up, I suspect that the reason behind the Gamma vote was self-preservation (which is NAI because all roles benefit from self-preservation).

Gamma actually looks like scum for a variety of reasons, which I have gone over before.

So, I suspect that Not_Mafia is scum's mislynch for today. It's an easy wagon to push, since it's a policy lynch for a genuinely super-quiet player. It's also a wagon that does not reflect badly on scum-on-the-wagon if the slot flips Town. Therefore, I think that the only reason Not_Mafia's wagon has progressed so far, is that there is scum on it; if Not_Mafia is lynched today and flips Town, then I would recommend taking a very close look at everyone on that wagon tomorrow.

Currently, my vote is staying on Gamma/kraska77.

Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty, NotTheRealPaul, PenguinPower

The list of people on NM currently--CCC, if you believe Not_Mafia to be scum's mislynch, shouldn't your scumreads be within this five?

N_M would be a good mislynch for Mafia. However, one part of why I think most of the Mafia are on his wagon is that I believe it to be a distraction from the Gamma/Kraska77 wagon (if Gamma/Kraska77 is

not

Mafia, then there may well be scum on both wagons).

My current top theory is that Mafia consists of Kraska77, NotTheRealPaul, and - probably either PenguinPower or DeathRowKitty, but I'm less sure on the third slot. Now, I don't have

great

reads on any of them... but if I had to pick right now, then that's where I'd imagine our scumteam to be.

[CCC]

Does kraska's posting change your view on what was the GE slot? If not, why?

Her posting today has pretty much removed my interest in that lynch, is part of why I ask.

Kraska's posting looks pretty null to me, so far. My vote for the slot is based entirely on the behaviours of Gamma and NotTheRealPaul.

[CCC]

Also this is WIFOM, but ScumReplacementKraska also parks on NotMafia, I think, unless they're both scum which is improbable.

ScumReplacementKraska might very well be waiting for one more Townie on that wagon first, in order to hammer it. (Especially if both other scum are already on it).

[CCC]

Eh.
VOTE: CCC

...I wish I could say I was surprised.

I

also

wish I knew how not to look like an attractive day one lynch on this site.

There's a lot that feels off with this post.
Especially the "tomorrow I will pick at the wagon". Seems a lot more like setup for tomorrow than a genuine interest in parsing the wagon itself, especially since there's nothing specific being unpacked here.

My top scumreads are Gamma/kraska77, NotTheRealPaul, and either DeathRowKitty or PenguinPower in the final slot. Of those, I think the Gamma/kraska77 lynch will be the most useful and informative for Town today; it will thoroughly (further) implicate NotTheRealPaul for his behaviour vis-a-vis the Gamma wagon, and that should give us plenty of time to figure out the rest.

Also don't like the declaration of N_M being a policy lynch. The confidence there feels a little like it's coming from a place of too much information.

If you don't think N_M is a dead-null policy lynch, then please, feel free to point out what he did that's at all alignment indicative. All I saw him do prior to my post is cast two votes - one for you and one for Gamma - with the ridiculously brief case that you 'feel scummy'. (Plus, I think Gamma might have been a self-preservation vote). I don't think that's enough data to call him

anything

.

Because I'm Town?

I don't know how Cheetory's recognising that, mind you.

Also don't really like this post!
I'm kind of sucking at putting my feelings to thoughts tonight, but this is probably the only thing I feel anything for right now. If I have energy tomorrow I'll put more effort into sorting this if it doesn't just become a wagon.

...that was me attempting to be funny. I may not be very good at it.

[CCC]

okay then VOTE: ccc
switch to ccc

VOTE: ccc

Two more votes, from people I'm thinking likely scum, with no more case than that I don't look as Townish as Waffles?

...I've been scumread so often when I'm Town that I can't really see scumreading me as alignment indicative anymore. But still, I'm somehow not surprised.

[CCC]

I literally am voting CCC, I didn't reduce my read on him

I went back and checked - you're scumreading me because I thought Gamma had copied my readslist?

I can show proof, in this thread, that my readslist was put out

days

in advance of Gamma's. And I can show Gamma being unable to explain one of my weaker reads. What more do you need?

[CCC]

@Kraska Prob waffles

That's not going anywhere though. And CCC is fine with me too.

VOTE: CCC

...and here's the last person I scumread, jumping on my wagon.

I'm not surprised, but I'm pointing this out for the benefit of future days in case I get lynched.

[CCC]

Not_Mafia- who the fk knows
DeathRowKitty- no opinion yet
Cheetory6- town
Hiraki- lean town
CCC- lean scum
Grendel- after reading the iso im not sure about this one
MuttonChopMagic- who the fk knows
SlingshotWaffles- lean scum
Backhand- town
Nero Cain- SCUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! but i would like to make sure people like waffles and ccc dont make it to end game before lynching nero
NotTheRealPaul- i think this might be scum
PenguinPower- no opinion yet

You prefer voting the people you lean scum on over the person you really think of as scum?

[CCC]

There literally has not been a game where, as town, I haven't been able to make it obvious that I'm town when my head's in the game.

...this is a rare and powerful talent that I wish I had.

Teach me your secrets!

[CCC]

Why should the fact that the main wagons are on people who usually get lynched early for bad play change anything? Lots of people feel like they have no footing because we're stuck in moonlogic limbo. it is still in towns best interests to not take lynchbait to endgame

Because I know how to handle probability mathematically. And I understand basic logic. And, not to forget, I am Town.

I think I'll do a good deal better at finding scum once I have some decent information to work from.

[CCC]

In your experience, do you think CCC gets very confident about things as town?

In my experience, I generally do not on Day One, and I have been told that this is part of why I'm such an easy D1 lynch.

Once I have better information, I can get more certain - in the rare case where I survive past D1, I have even been known to end up, rightly or wrongly, tunnelling on someone.

[CCC]

Ccc is getting lynched over nm because anyone can get away with voting nm today and everyone agrees nm hasn't done much at all. Ccc is someone who has put out more content and people had differing opinions on him. We get more info this way. Also I can't follow ccc's thought process on most reads, his posting is bad

Pedit: hmmm

You want to lynch the person who provides more info over the person who provides less info?

[CCC]

@kranska Maybe I'm not understanding something but are you actually scumreading CCC or just want him lynched 'cause he's "lynchbait"?

I just posted my reads a page ago and said multiple times that I can't follow his thought process and don't like his posts,

Feel free to ask questions about things you don't understand. I'm happy to explain my reasoning in detail.

[CCC]

grendel has been really inconsistent. doesn't necessarily make him scum, but something to note for later...

anway
ccc is at l-1, claim pls

L-2 at the time of this post, by my count.

I could claim, but I don't think L-2 is the time to do so yet.

[CCC]

Not_mafia remains incredibly frustrating/useless, still my top choice. Also I have everyone on the wagon except PP on the town side, so I'm not really buying the "scum are piling onto the wagon" argument

Fair enough, but let me point out again that "frustrating" and "useless" are not necessarily scummy behaviours.

[CCC]

P-Edit: Be a dick when people scumread you and then also flail around with anxiety and also be productive occasionally too.

The flailing round with anxiety actually works? I've tried to remain calm when scumread and explain my position logically and accurately, making sure to leave a full list of my current scumreads and my reasoning before the end of the day - is that what I've been doing wrong?

[CCC]

I hear you that all of your scumreads are jumping on your wagon, that would make anyone paranoid, but usually an entire scumgroup doesn't move in unison like that.

...you're right, that

doesn't

make sense for an entire scumgroup. You'd think at least some of them wouldn't make that jump.

I'm... going to have to think about this.

I do still kind of want to lynch Gamma/kraska, though. It's still my strongest scumread.

[CCC]

okay then
VOTE: nerocain
im positive this will flip scum, its about the only scumread im confident about
but i really do not look forword to a day 2 where i have to deal with waffles and ccc wallposting moonlogic about my slot....

Okay... looking back over your ISO, it looks like your case is that you're voting him because he's wishywashy and "doesn't have any strong reads". Is there more to the case than that, or is that all there is to it?

[CCC]

Fair enough, but let me point out again that "frustrating" and "useless" are not necessarily scummy behaviours.

Yeah, but fuck it I'm on a one-man campaign to bring back the lurker lynch.

You don't need to bring back the lurker lynch until the lurkers jump on an "abstain" vote early in the day and them stubbornly sit on it all day long.

[CCC]

if youre town just trust me and vote nero pls.

You... are aware that you're still one of my top scumreads, right?

If you have a case, I'll hear you out, but I'm not going to change my vote entirely on your unsupported say-so while I'm scumreading you.

[CCC]

VOTE: Nero

Another naked vote. Do you perhaps feel like providing a case for it?

[CCC]

@Mod

I'm going to be V/LA 16th to the 19th of June.

...by my count, this implies that you would be V/LA during the entire Night phase.

Hmmmmm.

[CCC]

I went back and checked - you're scumreading me because I thought Gamma had copied my readslist?

I HAVE LITERALLY NEVER SAID THIS

Then I have presumably completely misunderstood what you meant back here:

Okay, now this is starting to look suspicious. Your readslist was close to mine, which had been posted before yours, and now you're saying you 'forgot' why you Townread someone on that same list?

This is terrible.

553 doesn't sit well with me either.

Wow - didn't see the Accountant replace coming until I did my research. Yikes.

Vote: CCC

I think I'll start here today, especially based on recent postings.

Could you perhaps explain this in greater detail?

[CCC]

attempt number two to explain the first half of that thing

her reads have stayed static and her iso gives the impression of like shapeshifts and wiggling around to make the world a place in which those are still her reads

that explanation isn't any better

my brain is potatoes

Let me see if I've got this straight.

Are you suggesting that Kraska is starting from her conclusions, and then working back to find evidence that supports them? As if she said "these people are my fakescum reads, now let me find reasons why I can say that"?

[CCC]

I could lynch slingshot because I'm tired of his shitty pointless potshot playstyle?
(':

No, no, no. Lynch the person you think is scum, not the one who merely annoys you.

[CCC]

For pp/klick they've done a whole bunch of nothing.. The word active lurking comes to mind. Also 1048 is rolefishing and thats just yuck. The ONLY thing I like from PP is their vote on Kraska.

I didn't read that as rolefishing. I read that as a reminder to people to shut up about their roles and not give important info to the Mafia.

Is there a word for the opposite of rolefishing?

[CCC]

CCC we're killing a penguin would you like to join?

Hmmmm. Penguin is... I have a slight scumlean on her. I guess I wouldn't be

completely

opposed to that vote, but I don't read her anywhere near as scummy as kraska77/Gamma.

I think I'll stay on the Kraska wagon for the moment.

[CCC]

triple C, as annoyingly bad as N_M is we aren't lynching a claimed PR.

...I don't want to lynch him. Not today. I was asking for his case on you so that I could examine and consider it and try to figure out whether or not I wanted to transfer my vote to

you

.

Almost all of my scumreads have been putting votes on N_M, to the point of leaving them on over long periods during which he could plausibly have been lynched. That means he's a very bad lynch for today. Though that read might change unexpectedly as scum/townreads change in the future.

[CCC]

What's the reasoning for Gamma being scummy? And if you tell me it's "oh gamma replaceout was scummy" or "gamma copied my reads" I'm going to call you a nerd to your face. Because those are both bad reasons to scumread someone.

I don't care about the replaceout. Something like half this game consists of replaceouts - surely they can't

all

be scum. Replacing out is null.

Gamma looked pretty scummy. Yes, copying my reads is part of it. So is accusing me of rolefishing and then townreading me something like three posts later. Both of these are pretty ancient history by this point.

There's also a certain amount of cross-reading going on; NTRP's behaviour with his Gamma vote looks more than a little like scum trying to bus early for distance, then step back before the vote comes anywhere close to a lynch, then refuse to step back on and lynch a scumbuddy. This is an even weaker read than the above paragraph, because NTRP's scumread isn't all that strong to begin with, but it's another feather on the scale, so to speak.

But ancient history is all I've got. Ever since the replaceout, kraska has been looking pretty null. She's called for a lynch on Nero, claiming meta. (I don't actually know what Nero's meta looks like, I don't remember having played with him before). So, the slot hasn't moved any further scumwards in my reads since Gamma left.

If Gamma hadn't looked so scummy before he left, I would probably be voting for either PenguinPower or DeathRowKitty by now. (NTRP is my second-top scumread, but I'm reluctant to risk a PR claim on a weakish read).

--------------

So. There are a few other considerations here. For example, a strong factor for future scumreads is to consider the Not_Mafia wagon versus the Gamma wagon. If, as I suspect, it turns out that Gamma is scum, then that's fairly compelling evidence that the people who were on the Not_Mafia wagon at the time are more likely to be scum than the people who were on the Kraska wagon. Therefore, confirming this particular slot as scum now, on the first night, puts us in a very good position for scumhunting on future nights.

[CCC]

Not today. I was asking for his case on you so that I could examine and consider it and try to figure out whether or not I wanted to transfer my vote to you.

Why not engage me yourself then? Sans anyone else's case on me how do

YOU

feel about me?

If you're Town, you'll truth and tell me you're Town. If you're scum, you'll lie and tell me you're town. Also, you've been defending yourself from everyone else and I've been catching up on reading your ISO.

Having read through it... Kraska has a lot of good points. You

are

being wishywashy.

Your first post was a random vote, one you called out as a random vote. Your next post was on someone for calling his slot predecessor an idiot, which other players seem to consider a pretty weak tell. Your third vote was on Gamma for... replacing out. After that, people started voting for you and you got defensive. (Also, your avatar looks like it's trying to deflect accusations. Waving its little fists around and yelling "Guys! Guys, it's not me! I'm not the Mafia you're looking for! Guys! Back off, okay?")

Now, the fact that Kraska thinks you're scum doesn't mean much. Kraska is still my strongest scumread. But... Backhand is my strongest Townread. The fact that

Backhand

thinks you're scum doesn't do your slot any favours.

...I'm still scumreading Kraska. And I don't think we'd be able to get as much information from your lynch as we would from Kraska flipping scum. But I'm not entirely opposed to your wagon, either.

[CCC]

nero/me should be the wagon choices for today. i think whichever one of us gets lynched, people will have much better footing later days...i think...

On this I am in full agreement with you. Lynching you will give us far better footing for future arguments than lynching (say) PenguinPower.

pedit: i dont get why he would make a compromise vote(from what i can tell, hes saying im scum and waffles is lean scum?) on an outside shot when we have an actual wagon on me rn

That... is kind of odd. If he's Town, he might be thinking that Penguin is currently looking a bit scummier for some reason; I fail to find any reason why Mafia would do it, though.

[CCC]

Then I have presumably completely misunderstood what you meant back here:

that quote LITERALLY SAYS NOTHING OF THAT SORT

I disagreed WITH your reads-list and a SLEW of other things. The fact that the post that says that I don't like one of your posts is your biggest target for me is just flat-out the easiest cop out in the game.

It's the case you made when you placed your vote on me.

It wasn't a very convincing case. Yes, I didn't engage with it at the time, because I felt my time was better spend hunting down actual scum rather than trying to answer a case so weak that it didn't convince anyone else. (There were a few other votes for me later, on a different basis, and they provided actual cases, which I addressed).

Here are other things I ACTUALLY said about you.

For reference, here is post 553:

I explained NTRP in a past post

Could you perhaps link the post in question?

I dropped that case and bumped him up one spot
Mutton is my lowest now

Fair enough, reads do change. (If you could explain your read on Mutton, too, that would be great).

DRK I feel their pushes are genuine but I don't really regard that as grounds for a hard townread. I've made pushes on things I legitimately believed were scummy as scum before.
Notsure is just obvious newbtown. Not much to say there. I could point out specific post I like if you really want.

Hmmmmm. I think that pointing out specific posts you like would be a really good idea. "Obvious newbtown" is a very easy thing to say when you don't really know what the case is.

If I say that this post is bad,

You know, on reflection, that post

is

pretty bad. I should have already been scumreading Gamma by then, and I wasn't.

Also why did you ignore the several other posts in my ISO that clearly call out your bad play????

I

know

my play on day one is terrible. That's why I got lynched day one in both my newbie games. I don't know why my play gives a slight scum vibe on this site's meta; though I've been trying to deal with it.

[CCC]

because lots of people are hyper focused on me being scum and they cant all be scum. seeing a green flip from me will make them reconsider their reads

Seeing a green flip from you will

definitely

make me reconsider my reads.

Same as any opposite-to-expected flip, really.

[CCC]

(CCC posts like a more advanced robot programmed to play Go, playing mafia in their free time)

...having played my part in programming the odd robot, I can say with some certainty that I've never yet known one to do something it wasn't programmed to do in its spare time.

Also, despite any rumours to the contrary, Mafia would be a distinctly more complicated problem for a robot to tackle than Go. (Go is not easy, but it's straightforward - putting a white stone here always means a white stone is here. Understanding language as a robot is

difficult

, and understanding the subtleties of tone and shades of meaning that underlie a game of Mafia is yet more difficult for an AI. It would be easier to pass the Turing Test than to play Mafia as an AI, and I've never yet heard of the Turing Test being passed yet...)

[CCC]

By my count:

Kraska is at L-1, with six votes
Penguin has three votes
Nero has two votes
No-one else has more than one vote

We have three and a half hours left to get one of these wagons to the lynch point. (A no lynch on day one is terrible for Town)

The lynch point is seven votes.

[CCC]

Is kraska the lynch then?

Someone (cheet maybe?) said kraska's posting felt genuine and I fully agree. Not a big fan of yhe wagon but need a flip. Not sure if waffles hammered but VOTE: kraska

Deadline is soon and IDK if I'll be back in time.

I am suddenly feeling a good deal less sure about the Kraska wagon.

Mind you, looking at the count, I fully expected

someone

to hammer that slot once it was all laid out, given the time limit. I just wasn't expecting it to be my other top scumread who did it.

[CCC]

UNVOTE:

[CCC]

My count was off. I missed Nero_Cain's vote for PenguinPower. My apologies.

...still, with NTRP now voting for Kraska, I'm doing some serious rethinking of my reads.

[CCC]

UNVOTE:

Who are you going to vote then?

Not sure. Thinking. I might end up back on Kraska. Alternatively, I might go with Penguin. NTRP isn't an option or I might go for him... I could also see myself going for Nero.

I just want to get achance to think a bit before getting on the lynch.

On any lynch.

[CCC]

It's 11 at night. I am

not

going to be staying up until two in the morning over a game of Mafia.

[CCC]

Argh, it's too late at night for this.

Both my top townreads (Cheetory and Backhand) are on PenguinPower. One of my top scumreads (NTRP) is on Kraska. I'll trust that at least

one

of those three reads is good.

VOTE: PenguinPower

[CCC]

Argh, it's too late at night for this.

Both my top townreads (Cheetory and Backhand) are on PenguinPower. One of my top scumreads (NTRP) is on Kraska. I'll trust that at least

one

of those three reads is good.

VOTE: PenguinPower

look, you also think one of me or nero should go today. so do something about that. vote nero

I don't think there's time for the Nero wagon to hit the lynchpoint today. And I'm less sure about you being scum than I was.

Yes, you flipping scum will be more informative than Penguin flipping scum. But then why did Paul put his vote on you? (I thought it was a hammer. I'm pretty sure Paul thought it was a hammer, too. So it's not a simple distancing vote. If it was a bussing vote, it's a bussing-to-death vote).

[CCC]

I would like to take this moment to make sure that everyone sees CHEETORY6's username before it changes back.

Pink capital letters? I see it.

[CCC]

also thoughts on the nodeaths? we have some sort of protective role who should now know a conf townie right?

My thought is that the nodeath goes a long way towards making you probable Town. There are several ways to create a nodeath - including a scum team deliberately faking one - but the most likely seems to be either a doctor or a Town roleblocker.

If there was a Town roleblocker, then we've got someone who's got a pretty good idea who one of the scum is. If so, then that person should probably keep roleblocking the same target until that target is lynched, to prevent further kills. But a doctor seems more likely.

Moreover, the doctor must have chosen to protect the same person as the Mafia chose to kill - if that's the reason for the no-lynch. Now, it seems to me that the obvious person for the doctor to protect is NTRP - since he's made it reasonably clear that he's either Mafia or a PR, and the doctor wants to protect PRs. And clearly, since no-one died, that means it seems likely that either the Mafia is pulling a fast one with a deliberate no kill, or they tried to kill NTRP; the second of these options thus implies that NTRP is Town.

There's a lot of maybes in that chain of logic, so it's nowhere near ironclad. But it seems sensible to townread NTRP a bit more due to that.

[CCC]

I thought Kraska was voted, not PP lol.

VOTE: Kraska

Kraska was

almost

voted.

I counted the votes, but made an error (didn't notice NeroCain had moved his vote off kraska) and announced L-1 on Kraska. NTRP jumped in with one more vote, announcing (incorrectly) the hammer, implosion put up the VC showing kraska now at L-1. I panicked because I was still scumreading NTRP and jumped right off the wagon. I dithered a bit between kraska and PP and eventually went with my gut (and my top two townreads) and jumped on the PP wagon, bringing it to L-2 (along with the kraska wagon). Then two more people voted PP in quick succession. (Then I think two people switched to kraska but it was too late, PP had already been hammered).

[CCC]

I got what looks like a cop's inno on someone

Interesting. Do you know who the result is on, or do you just have a note saying "INNOCENT"?

(I'm not asking you to reveal the name if you have it; I'm just asking whether it's there at all)

[CCC]

Hmmmm. The Kraska-MCM interplay is... interesting.

There are two options, here. Either they are both Town, and all is as it seems - MCM really is a Friendly Neighbour. Other option, they are both Mafia, playing roles to look Townish. This seems... rather unlikely, and is easily verified - once MCM has visited

enough

people at night, we'll have mod confirmation of innocence sent to more people than there are Mafia, at which point he (and therefore Kaska) will be proven Town.

For the moment, i.e. until more information is obtained tomorrow, I shall assume them both Town.

[CCC]

NTRP is likely Town, for the reasons I outlined previously - he seems the best candidate for Doctoral protection, and we had no night kill. I know I'm Town.

That leaves eight people who might be Mafia: Not_Mafia, DeathRowKitty, Cheetory6, Hiraki, Grendel, SlingshotWaffles, Backhand, and Nero Cain.

My thoughts on these follow:

Not_Mafia is still mostly silent, and deliberately hard to read. Null.
DeathRowKitty hasn't said anything useful today. Near-Null.
Cheetory tripped over kraska's post about MCM in a way that looks very much like innocent Townie behaviour, and revealed info that would appear (in the short term) good for Town. Leaning Townish.
Hiraki is trying to figure out the Nero Cain scumreads. Or pretending to. Null so far.
Grendel has yet to turn up today. Near-Null.
SlingshotWaffles - ohhhhh dear. SlingshotWaffles appears to be making deliberate effort to fish for the identities of PRs. Looks scummy.
Backhand - Seems to be making a genuine effort to figure out what's going on. Feels Towny, but that's only a feel - there's not much backing it.
Nero Cain - I would normally have said near-null, but now that I'm reading Kraska as strongly Town, I have to give a lot more weight to her Nero read. (And, moreover, looking over his ISO, kraska is

right

- Nero has been pretty vague and uncertain. Not quite sure that's necessarily scumsign, but kraska seems sure and if she's Town, then, well...) - Scumlean

So, right now, if I had to pick a scumteam, it would be SlingshotWaffles, Nero Cain, and one of my Nulls or Near-Nulls (Grendel, Hikari, DRK, or Not_Mafia)

VOTE: SlingshotWaffles

[CCC]

Why me over Nero when there is already a Nero wagon?

My scumread on you is stronger.

[CCC]

Also noticed that the time I reached out to interact with nero his response were p under whelming, and he made no attempt to engage me further. Which is weird if he was town reading me like he says he was.

His responses to

everyone

are pretty underwhelming and unengaged, yes. Still not sure that's reason for more than a weak scumread - it seems more a case of playstyle to me - but it's indubitably there.

[CCC]

Okay, I'll be back tom when im free to write down a detailed post on nero and grendel

Looking forward to it!

[CCC]

Do you think that NeroxSling makes much sense tho?

My reads on them are pretty much independent - could be there's one scum between the two of them, could be they're both scum. I'm hoping to flip one of them today, and then reconsider the other tomorrow.

Nero was on Sling a lot yesterday.

- Went to check implosion's ISO for the votecounts. Nero was only on Sling for a single votecount. He was on Penguin a lot more.
- Sling was never in any serious danger. Perfect time for a bussing vote.

For these reasons, I don't think Nero's day one vote is good reason to think they can't both be scum.

Can we talk about your consistant backhand read sometime? I didn't do enough yesterday to pull attention to him aside from complain about how nobody was paying him any attention lol

It's a weak read, entirely impression-based. He's talking like I expect Town to talk, asking sensible questions, following up on them, seems to be actually scumhunting and not just pretending to...

[CCC]

tbh I'm having trouble forming reads this game because I've gotten into a bad habit of accidentally scumreading most power roles as town but I think I understand how it happens and I'm being overly careful to not let myself fall into that this game and it's making me weird and cagey because avoiding it requires me to be more careful and I haven't really felt able to do so since I fell behind once in this game and that's been locking me into only being able to talk about the subset of players I feel like I've put enough effort into separating properly in that way

and now i'm just playing like shit in a different way than usual so that's useful

That souns like the opposite of my problem, where I scum read town power forcing them to cliam.

If you weren't being careful where would you reads be?

I'm with DRK on this. This is just terrible. Blatant rolefishing.

[CCC]

A) I feel this doesn't mean much because he was mainly a PL/voting him for things he always does.
B) That's because that's when Gamma requested to replace out.

If he was a real PL on Town, wouldn't scum have found it easier to push through his lynch that create a distractionary wagon on we-now-know-is-Town?

[CCC]

NotTheRealPaul- prob Town

So then....why are you voting him...........?

An excellent question.

slingshots reads:

me, mutton
paul, hiraki, grendel
cheetory
---
nm
---
drk, backhand
nc

pick one of your 3 scumreads and vote there

You left out that he's scumreading me as well.

[CCC]

2)

NTRP isn't an option or I might go for him... I could also see myself going for Nero.

This bullshit which in context is really annoying considering that CCC hard scumread both N_M and Kraska BEFORE conceding here and voting WITH them while SRing Nero. I tried to do URLs to make this not messy but I am such shit at that shit. This is all in CCC's ISO.

I never hard scumread N_M. Day one, I mostly nullread him, but thought his wagon was a perfect excuse-wagon for scum. Day two, I'm starting to think Backhand's got a point about N_M's wagon, but it still makes for a pretty weak read; there are scummier players.

Yes, my scumread on kraska turned right around. This is because MCM and Kraska put out good reasons to consider each other Town.

Keep in mind that CCC, in argument with me, called his D1 play shit and D2 he's just going to continue with those D1 reads! Yay!

If I was just going with my D1 reads I'd be voting NTRP or Kraska now.

[CCC]

im travelling soon and will be cut off internet for days so i should put sth out before that happens, i'll do proper reads post tom(not that anyone cares lol...)

I do. You're one of my top townreads, which means your readslist is particularly important.

[CCC]

MuttonChopMagic- conf Town(?)
kraska77- conf Town(?)

this is pretty silly. Like ok, I think there is the possibility that MCM and Kraska are scum pulling a gambit but that should get cleared up sooner rather than later unless he's like 1x. It could easily be a difference in playstyle but the last time I received a FN message I did

NOT

out the conf town until they got ran up b/c why? Like you advertise that X is conf town and alert the scum and any potential protective roles where to be. I just don't think her actions are as pro-town as she wants you to believe but Slings kinda fencesit here is gross.

Kraska's actions weren't particularly proTown but the fact that she received the message at all when it was sent with a Loyal modifier makes her confTown anyway (unless her and Mutton are both scum pulling a trick, but that should be obvious soon if so and seems unlikely)

[CCC]

Okay, so, day before yesterday I voted slingshotWaffles because he seemed to be rolefishing, with Nero as my second-top scumread because practically confTown Kraska is scumreading him.

Today, I find Grendel trying a bit of rolefishing of his own, oh,

and

Kraska is also scumreading Grendel. So, he's kind of hit both the reasons for my biggest current scumreads at once.

VOTE: Grendel

[CCC]

I didn't take it that way, CCC. I think grendel was just trying to get DRK to contribute more, which is something that we need. Like you have to believe that grendel believes that DRK actually has some magic ability to detect town power roles to really scumread over that.

Magic power? No. But Grendel finding out where DRK thinks the power roles are might help Grendel to pinpoint them with greater accuracy.

I'm aware that Grendel's statement can be taken in multiple ways. I'm... not at all sure which of those ways is correct.

I agree that the NM wagon could have been safe and lazy. However, it seems indicative to me that lazy scum do not appear to have jumped on. And given the (bad, in my opinion) wagon that got driven on kraska by you and waffles, there's some associative guilt there, I'm expecting there to be one scum between the two of you. Waffles fishing on NTRP was super gross but its really hard to tell what he's thinking.

Hmmmmmmm. That is a good argument.

If I take it as given that there's one scum between Nero and Waffles... well, it could go either way, but right now I'd be more likely to pick Waffles as the Mafia member. (Though that could easily change).

[CCC]

CCC is probably bitter because I _have_ been pretty inactive this game.

If I was voting on inactivity bitterness, I'd be voting for Not_Mafia before you.

I'm with DRK on this. This is just terrible. Blatant rolefishing.

And how long have you been in a relationship with DRK btw?

Not "in a relationship" with. "In agreement" with.

[CCC]

...confefe's vote analysis post has inspired me to take a closer look at yesterday's wagons. And I noticed something interesting. Take a look at these two votecounts:

Not_Mafia (6): Not_Mafia, Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty,

NotTheRealPaul

,

PenguinPower

Gamma Emerald

(2):

CCC

,

MuttonChopMagic

Backhand (1): Grendel

CCC

(1): Hiraki
Cheetory6 (1): SlingshotWaffles

Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald, Nero Cain

--------------

PenguinPower

(7): Cheetory6, Backhand, Nero Cain, DeathRowKitty,

CCC

, Not_Mafia,

kraska77

kraska77

(5): SlingshotWaffles,

MuttonChopMagic

,

PenguinPower

, Hiraki,

NotTheRealPaul

Backhand (1): Grendel

Not Voting (0):

See it? Take a good look at these two wagons. Consider what happens if Not_Mafia is or is not Mafia.

I'll explain what I think I've seen there in the spoiler below.

Spoiler:

Three unverified names are on both wagons - Cheetory, Backhand, and DeathRowKitty. Now, since PenguinPower was Town, it's almost certain that there were some Mafia on her wagon. (Note, also, that none of these three names were on the kraska wagon that formed afterwards).

Let's consider two possibilities. First, consider Not_Mafia being scum:

Not_Mafia

(6):

Not_Mafia

, Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty,

NotTheRealPaul

,

PenguinPower

Gamma Emerald

(2):

CCC

,

MuttonChopMagic

Backhand (1): Grendel

CCC

(1): Hiraki
Cheetory6 (1): SlingshotWaffles

Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald, Nero Cain

--------------

PenguinPower

(7): Cheetory6, Backhand, Nero Cain, DeathRowKitty,

CCC

,

Not_Mafia

,

kraska77

kraska77

(5): SlingshotWaffles,

MuttonChopMagic

,

PenguinPower

, Hiraki,

NotTheRealPaul

Backhand (1): Grendel

Not Voting (0):

In this case, it's clear to see what happened; the votes on Not_Mafia were all Town. Not_Mafia and Nero Cain were the two Mafia votes on PenguinPower. We take those two out, and then we've only got one Mafioso left to find.

But there's the other option, the option in which Not_Mafia is Town. In that case, we have:

Not_Mafia

(6):

Not_Mafia

, Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty,

NotTheRealPaul

,

PenguinPower

Gamma Emerald

(2):

CCC

,

MuttonChopMagic

Backhand (1): Grendel

CCC

(1): Hiraki
Cheetory6 (1): SlingshotWaffles

Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald, Nero Cain

--------------

PenguinPower

(7): Cheetory6, Backhand, Nero Cain, DeathRowKitty,

CCC

,

Not_Mafia

,

kraska77

kraska77

(5): SlingshotWaffles,

MuttonChopMagic

,

PenguinPower

, Hiraki,

NotTheRealPaul

Backhand (1): Grendel

Not Voting (0):

In this scenario, Not_Mafia was an attempt at pushing through a mislynch on a mostly-absent player. There must have been at least one or perhaps even two Mafia in the group {Cheetory6, Backhand, DeathRowKitty}. (Two of whom I'm Townreading, but I have little but tone to base those reads on, so they could well be wrong).

So. It seems that Not_Mafia would, at the very least, be a most

informative

lynch; proving, for sure, one way or another, whether he's scum or not should allow us to focus our future scumhunting very, very precisely.

[CCC]

covfefe has requested replacement.

Searching.

...wow, that was fast.

[CCC]

Never fear, Vedith is here!

UNVOTE: All

Games night tonight - I'll do shit tomorrow.

Welcome, Vedith! (Wow, these repplacements are confusing).

...for the reasons specified in this post, though, I think that the right thing to do is VOTE: Vedith (apologies, Vedith, but you replaced in at exactly the wrong time)

[CCC]

So. It seems that Not_Mafia would, at the very least, be a most informative lynch; proving, for sure, one way or another, whether he's scum or not should allow us to focus our future scumhunting very, very precisely.

yes congratulations CCC, you've clearly defined the reasoning that N_M is lynched, regardless of role, in most of his games - great job

Because his flip would provide good data on close on half the other players?

[CCC]

I didn't take it that way, CCC. I think grendel was just trying to get DRK to contribute more, which is something that we need. Like you have to believe that grendel believes that DRK actually has some magic ability to detect town power roles to really scumread over that.

Magic power? No. But Grendel finding out where DRK thinks the power roles are might help Grendel to pinpoint them with greater accuracy.

I'm aware that Grendel's statement can be taken in multiple ways. I'm... not at all sure which of those ways is correct.

CCC is probably bitter because I _have_ been pretty inactive this game.

If I was voting on inactivity bitterness, I'd be voting for Not_Mafia before you.

I'm with DRK on this. This is just terrible. Blatant rolefishing.

And how long have you been in a relationship with DRK btw?

Not "in a relationship" with. "In agreement" with.

So you aren't sure which meaning it is, while you simultaneously agree with DRK that I'm role fishing?

I'm not certain, but I do think that the role-fishing meaning is likely.

In truth it was a rushed post I made when I saw DRK was on, and I wanted to interact with her so I could start my sorting process. I won't deny that I framed it up poorly. I aligned my thoughts in a dirction that was better in my next post.

That's the other possibility, yes. It's also what you'd claim, either way.

Be that as it may, though, I'm currently thinking we can solve about half the game by getting Vedith's flip, one way or the other, so I'm currently more inclined to leave my vote on him.

[CCC]

I aslo took some time to look at CCC and uh CCC actually looks kinda bad in retrospect. It seemed like he spent a lot more time honing in an trivial things then I remebered. That one long exchange about how I misspelled "scared", and Lecturing Mutton about rhyming structures... idk why but it feels not very focused for someone as analytically inclined as CCC.

Nothing to analyse day one. It's a problem.

And how long have you been in a relationship with DRK btw?

Not "in a relationship" with. "In agreement" with.

I was actually wanting to know what your current read on her was. Like do you think she is town?

I might of missed it since I didn't scour your D2 posts.

Oh. Near to null, but if anything on the scummy side of null. No strong reason to read anything more than that out of her slot that I can see. If Vedith flips town, then she will abruptly become probable scum - if Vedith flips scum, she'll be probable Town.

[CCC]

Hi Vedith!

You probably don't remember me, but I remember subbing into your slot for a game. And I think we were in another game together at one point too.

I've played with you at least twice, once you were in a hydra, and once in a large game I think!
Hello!

So I am here, what's the facts of the game?
Before reading the game, I'm going to call Kraska scum, because Kraska. Other than that, where am I starting?

Day One, the player in your slot was... ridiculously quiet. Said basically nothing of consequence until he hit L-1, and even then said the very minimum. Was close on policy lynched, until a second wagon was started on the slot that Kraska replaced into. Eventually, the lynch was down to between PenguinPower and Kraska; PenguinPower died (flipping Town) and Kraska narrowly (very narrowly) lived.

Also, during Day One, NotTheRealPaul got a vote or two and immediately (and unnecessarily) softed a PR pretty noticeably.

Night one, there was no kill. (My theory is that the Doctor and the Mafia both hit NTRP for his PR softing)

Early in Day Two, MuttonChopMagic and Kraska revealed that Kraska had got a PM overnight stating that MuttonChopMagic was innocent. MuttonChopMagic revealed that he was a Friendly Neighbour with a 1xLoyal modifier - the fact that Kraska had received his message meant Kraska must be Townsided as well. Which means that the two of them are either both Town or both Mafia and pulling off a massive bluff. (But both Town seems more likely to me - MCM can prove that by Friendly-Neighbouring more people in future nights).

--------------

So much for the highlights. Now, on to more speculative matters. Looking at the wagon on Not_Mafia (which is your slot - it's been through several players) yesterday, and comparing it to the votes on the proven-Townie PenguinPower lynch wagon, I notice that (if one ignores the likely-town MCM, Kraska and NTRP) three names are on both wagons - Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty. Considering that the day one wagon on your slot was basically an easy policy lynch, the only way I can imagine that there wasn't a heavy scum presence on your wagon was if you yourself are scum. So, if you're Town, then at least one or two of those three pretty much have to be scum - while, on the flip side, if you're scum then I would assume that those three are all likely to be Town (in which case Nero Cain is very likely one of your scumbuddies).

I think you have a pretty decent chance of being scum, and the information we get from verification of your slot is massively valuable.

[CCC]

Vote Count 2.6

DeathRowKitty (1): Cheetory6
DeathRowKitty (1): Grendel

Implosion: I think this may be an error.

It has in fact been an error for three vote counts. Fixed.

[CCC]

Implosion: I think this may be an error.

It has in fact been an error for three vote counts. Fixed.

Huh. Well. Not sure how I missed it for so long, then.

[CCC]

also CCC going for an information lynch is probably not a good idea - do you have a compelling reason to think that Vedith/Not_Mafia is scum over, say, Nero?

Over Nero?

Hmmm. I don't see how Nero can avoid being scum if Not_Mafia is scum (in fact, if Not_Mafia were to flip scum, I'd jump straight onto Nero next). On the other hand, I can imagine Nero being scum without Not_Mafia being scum.

Hmmm. Which means that Nero is, by definition, more likely scum than Vedith/Not_Mafia. It's not

quite

as informative a lynch - I can assume Not_Mafia Town if Nero is Town but I can't assume Not_Mafia scum if Nero flips scum - but there is still some decent info in there.

...let me just finish catching up before I move my vote.

[CCC]

Hi, Gigabyte. You're making your slot look a lot Townier than the previous player did.

Finished catching up. Didn't see any reason not to

VOTE: Nero Cain

[CCC]

that's l-2 yeah?

Think so, yeah.

[CCC]

So, for a start, I don't care about your read on me, so it's a waste of an opinion towards me.

However, explain to me how you come to the idea that either scum was on my wagon, or all town was and I'm scum?
Backhand, Cheetory6, DeathRowKitty - What do you think of these 3 players from how they played so far?

Okay, first off, Not_Mafia was silent. I mean,

really

silent. He was a late sub into a slot belonging to someone who literally never posted a single in-game post.

Go look at his ISO. Look at the dates on the post. That first vote of his? That's on his own slot. (bigbenwd was the player who never turned up). Over the course of the following week, he then posts a grand total of six posts, containing such gems as "whoah I need to read" and other such alignment-null comments. (That unvote of his? That was

after

the wagon on him had already hit L-1).

So. He was a dead-null player, with emphasis on "dead". This makes him a very easy policy lynch; there were arguments being made that this is

not

a player one wants around in MYLO or LYLO, and someone (Backhand, I think?) went so far as to gather data to suggest that day-one lynches are generally not much better than random chance

anyway

.

And, let me reiterate, he hit L-1.

So. Two options. Either you are scum or you are not.

Let us consider first the case where you are scum. In this case, the Mafia must have been in a panic. One of their own, up for the lynch - and so early, for such terrible reasons? They would have grabbed the next-most-popular wagon and pushed it,

hard

. (As Backhand points out, there were a rapid pair of votes added to the next-most-popular wagon around then).

Alternatively, it is still possible that you may have been Town. If you were Town, then either the wagon on your slot already had scum on it, or it was pure Town. But - if you were Town, and the wagon on you was pure Town, then

why

would Mafia not have hammered you? Your slot's lynch was a policy lynch, no-one was suggesting that the slot had any more chance than anyone else of being scum - what better lynch to be able to walk away from after townflip and just shrug?

So, yeah. Either you're scum, or there's scum on your wagon.

--------------

Which brings us to the next point. Backhand, Cheetory, DeathRowKitty. The first two I've been Townreading; DRK I had been reading as scum but that's changed somewhat after Gigabyte replaced in. All three reads were fairly light, and tone-based, and therefore could well be wrong; before Gigabyte's replace-in, had you flipped Town, I would have wanted to vote DRK next. Now, I'm... less certain which way to pick between them.

Nonetheless. If that happens, I'll deal with it when it does. Right now, I'm thinking you're more likely to flip scum than most other players at any rate.

[CCC]

So you think there is a possible waffles, nero, NM scumteam?

Im much more in favor of a nero lynch, as NM hasnt done anything particularly scummy. I'll wait to see how Vedith plays but Im not toally against NM lynch.

Don't know about Backhand, but I can think of several possible scumteams involving Nero. Waffles might be swapped out for Grendel, and if Not_Mafia is somehow Town, then at least one of {Backhand, Cheetory, GigabyteTroubadour} pretty much has to be on the list (possibly two, if Nero is swapped out as well).

[CCC]

if scum had a completely null partner wouldnt they be fine bussing it since it's an infoless lynch that could be used to give them towncredit

or better yet do nothing about it and push other people as bussers

So, you're saying that even if Not_Mafia was scum, there could still have been scum on his wagon? Or there might not have been?

...that's disturbingly plausible, and does rather reduce the information that could be gained from a Vedith lynch.

[CCC]

So, yeah. Either you're scum, or there's scum on your wagon.

It's plausible that there are scum on my wagon, but I want reasons to why. Town can be bad when it comes to day 1 wagon, I'm highly unlikely to scum read someone with that information alone.

Short version: If there was no scum on your slot's wagon, and your slot was Town, then that meant that every single member of the Mafia decided not to take a easy hammer that was pretty much handed to them on a silver platter.

That's all there is to it.

Which brings us to the next point. Backhand, Cheetory, DeathRowKitty. The first two I've been Townreading; DRK I had been reading as scum but that's changed somewhat after Gigabyte replaced in. All three reads were fairly light, and tone-based, and therefore could well be wrong; before Gigabyte's replace-in, had you flipped Town, I would have wanted to vote DRK next. Now, I'm... less certain which way to pick between them.

Nonetheless. If that happens, I'll deal with it when it does. Right now, I'm thinking you're more likely to flip scum than most other players at any rate.

Why were you town reading them? Gut?
Why is DRK scum (or was)? give me examples why.

Gut. All gut, for all three of them. DRK looked slightly scummy because of some early day one posts and never did anything to change that. Posts like this one just looked rather scummish to me.

[CCC]

So, you're saying that even if Not_Mafia was scum, there could still have been scum on his wagon? Or there might not have been?

...that's disturbingly plausible, and does rather reduce the information that could be gained from a Vedith lynch.

I've seen you play and I don't believe that this hasn't occured to you before.

Nobody's perfect. I did think that if N_M was Scum, then the people on his wagon would be probable Town; I wasn't thinking in terms of the Mafia deliberately abandoning one of their own until gigabyte pointed out how it would look from the Mafia perspective.

There aren't many Mafia. A successful lynch on the first day leaves Mafia far more vulnerable to bad luck.

[CCC]

Short version: If there was no scum on your slot's wagon, and your slot was Town, then that meant that every single member of the Mafia decided not to take a easy hammer that was pretty much handed to them on a silver platter.

That's all there is to it.

So that's your only reason? Because of odds, or what?

Yep. Do you want me to put figures to that?

Gut. All gut, for all three of them. DRK looked slightly scummy because of some early day one posts and never did anything to change that. Posts like this one just looked rather scummish to me.

Okay, so give me your entire reads now it's day 2. If you only have gut for reads today (other than mine, again, I don't care there) then we're done.

Town:

CCC - mod PM
MCM, Kraska - mutual vouching via MCM's Friendly Neighbour with 1xLoyal modifier
NTRP - Most likely Doctor target (note no lynch last night)

Gut reads: Backhand, Cheetory, Hiraki, Gigabyte

Likely Scum:
Nero: Heavily scumread by strong Townreads. Suspicious voting behaviours.
SlingshotWaffles: Could have been rolefishing. Also suspicious voting behaviours.
Vedith/Not_Mafia: Likely beneficiary of 'rescue wagon' by Nero/Waffles as described in previous posts
Grendel: Also could have been rolefishing; plus heavily scumread by strong Townreads

(Yes, I know I have four people under "likely scum")

[CCC]

wait why is paul a likely doc target

Because he rather heavily softed PR on Day One. (After only one or two votes, he seemed to panic a bit).

So because your TRs SR people, you SR them?

Yes? If I Townread someone, it means I think they're telling the truth. Also, my gut is - not good at the whole scumhunting thing, so I find it worthwhile to listen to other people's guts as well.

[CCC]

hmm

ok

then yeah

it's probably nero+grendel+comical third option

I can certainly see nero+grendel+vedith as a possibility.

Or nero+backhand+cheet. Or nero+waffles+vedith. There's loads of possible teams that include Nero (and comparatively few that don't).

[CCC]

Removing Mutton and Kraska my reads are something like this

Sling, NotPaul, Cheetory6,

Gigabyte, CCC,

Vedith, Backhand,

Hiraki, Nero Cain

Why's your Slingshot read so far in the green?

The rest I can understand, even if I don't always agree, but that one just seems wrong to me...

[CCC]

ugh ok my list is terrible

I think it looks quite sensible, myself.

[CCC]

today's lynch pool is {vedith, nero} for me
and slingshot but nobody else agrees

I'd be happy to vote Slingshot. His rolefishing attempt was just terrible.

I could see myself voting anywhere in {slingshot vedith nero}. Grendel's also a possibility still, but I'm no longer certain he's a good choice for today's lynch.

[CCC]

I'm trying here!
I'm reading parts and trying to determine motives.
To you I'm not doing anything maybe but my posts have purpose.

And you're in a slot that's made a speciality of silence. This is why I still think that seeing your flip will go a very long way towards solving the game.

[CCC]

but I’d apperiate a defense for why you think he is town/ a bad lynch aside from that.

OK - he is a player who's lynch is pushed on by scummy players for meta reasons when I'll bet a shitton that they have not read a snippet of his meta. I never said I TR'd Nero - I said it was a terrible wagon and lynch compared to Waffles and CCC.

I can provide a non-meta based reason to vote Nero as scum.

Take a look at the day one wagon on Not_Mafia. Aside from N_M's self-vote and a bunch of people who now have strong reasons to be considered Town, the votes on that wagon are Backhand, Cheetory, DeathRowKitty.

Now, take a look at the votes on the PenguinPower lynch at the end of the day. Backhand, Cheetory, DeathRowKitty are also on that wagon, along with a lot of very-probably-Townies and Nero Cain.

Now. Either Not_Mafia is Town or Not_Mafia is Mafia.

If Not_Mafia is Mafia: The people on his wagon are more probably Town than Scum. This causes Townleans for Backhand, Cheetory, DRK. There probably is scum on Penguin's wagon; this means that N_M being scum translates into a very strong probability of Nero being scum.

If Not_Mafia is Town: Almost certainly, one (perhaps two) of the people on N_M's wagon are scum. (That's between Backhand, Cheet, and DRK). Nero is still quite possibly scum; though the odds of Town Nero are a good deal higher in this probability branch.

Summed over both branches, Nero's probability of being scum ends up being higher than Not_Mafia's. (Though we get better information from the Not_Mafia slot).

[CCC]

NRTP seemed scummy D1 imo.
Though with night actions he seems a bit townie.

I still don't really trust him though.

And I guess I should explain the rolefishing. I don't trust him so I wanted to know his role.
Still bad, but yeah.

So... your explanation of why it looked like you were rolefishing is that you were, in actual fact, rolefishing?

VOTE: SlingshotWaffles

[CCC]

today's lynch pool is {vedith, nero} for me
and slingshot but nobody else agrees

I'd be happy to vote Slingshot. His rolefishing attempt was just terrible.

I could see myself voting anywhere in {slingshot vedith nero}. Grendel's also a possibility still, but I'm no longer certain he's a good choice for today's lynch.

This^

Not sure about vedith though I dont remember him doing anything except saying hi.

Nero's response was pretty trash IMO.

VOTE: nero

If the Nero lynch is actually going to go through I can put my vote back there.

VOTE: Nero Cain

I'm pretty sure that makes L-1

[CCC]

Not_Mafia (6): Not_Mafia, Backhand,

Cheetory6

, DeathRowKitty,

NotTheRealPaul

,

PenguinPower

Gamma Emerald

(2):

CCC

,

MuttonChopMagic

Backhand (1): Grendel

CCC

(1): Hiraki

Cheetory6

(1):

SlingshotWaffles

Not Voting (2):

Gamma Emerald

,

Nero Cain

Not_Mafia (5): Backhand,

Cheetory6

, DeathRowKitty,

NotTheRealPaul

,

PenguinPower

Gamma Emerald

(4):

CCC

,

MuttonChopMagic

,

SlingshotWaffles

,

Nero Cain

Cheetory6

(1): Not_Mafia

CCC

(1): Hiraki

PenguinPower

(1): Grendel

Not Voting (1):

Gamma Emerald

kraska77

(6):

CCC

,

SlingshotWaffles

,

MuttonChopMagic

,

PenguinPower

, Hiraki,

NotTheRealPaul

PenguinPower

(4):

Cheetory6

, Backhand,

Nero Cain

, DeathRowKitty

Nero Cain

(2):

kraska77

, Not_Mafia
Backhand (1): Grendel

Not Voting (0): Nobody

PenguinPower

(7):

Cheetory6

, Backhand,

Nero Cain

, DeathRowKitty,

CCC

, Not_Mafia,

kraska77

kraska77

(5):

SlingshotWaffles

,

MuttonChopMagic

,

PenguinPower

, Hiraki,

NotTheRealPaul

Backhand (1): Grendel

Not Voting (0): Not a single person

Nero Cain

(7):

kraska77

,

SlingshotWaffles

,

MuttonChopMagic

, gigabyteTroubadour,

NotTheRealPaul

,

CCC

,

Nero Cain

Vedith (2): Backhand,

Cheetory6

SlingshotWaffles

(1): Hiraki
gigabyteTroubadour (1): Grendel

Not Voting (1): Vedith

...I think that's all the major wagons from the last two days, now with colour. I'll wait to hear from Vedith before actually voting (I don't particularly like his "no talking unless I have no votes" ultimatum, since a single scum could use it to silence him completely, but let's hear what he has to say).

My current thoughts; if Vedith is scum, then his final partner is either Grendel or Hiraki. If Vedith is Town, then Backhand and DeathRowKitty's voting patterns begin to look extremely suspicious. So I'm perfectly happy to lynch Vedith today and work from there. (But no vote just yet, so he'll speak up).

[CCC]

RAINBOW READS!!

kraska77

MuttonChopMagic

Cheetory6

CCC

gigabyteTroubadour

NotTheRealPaul

Grendel

Backhand

Hiraki

Okay. Backhand/Hiraki does make some sense as a scumteam. (I'd still like an explanation of how you figured it out, Vedith, so that I can test the strength of your reasoning).

The thing is, though, that Vedith/Grendel

also

makes sense as a scumteam. (So does Vedith/Hiraki, for that matter).

So. Two options.

One, Vedith is Town. He really has solved the game; the solution is above.

Two, Vedith is scum. He is lying through his teeth.

Personally, I think that the second is more likely. And on the off-chance that he

does

flip Town - well, then we'd have a completely solved game and just need to go through the lynches.

VOTE: Vedith

[CCC]

Interactions / VC / Logical reasoning

I think we're going to want a

teensy

bit more detail here.

[CCC]

also just fyi 2-shot loyal friendly neighbor seems really weird in this setup when there's other pr claims

we've had games that were just 3 masons from the start and no other prs

It's always possible that there are scum PRs to balance it out.

In fact, going back and checking the rules post:

1. Any mafia member who has a night action other than their nightkill may both use that action and kill on the same night.

This seems to imply that there

are

Mafia members with other roles. And how does a Godfather interact with the Loyal modifier? Would a Mafia Godfather still get the Friendly Neighbour message?

If a Godfather

does

still get the message, that could seriously mess with our situation here.

[CCC]

godfather isnt normal and is highly unlikely (like .0001% chance) to be in play

Well,

that's

a relief.

i want to avoid setup spec at the moment but i see it as really unlikely that theres a backup pr :/

Yeah, that's probably a good idea.

[CCC]

also, scum didn't block me last night
either they blocked Paul and tried to shoot me or they don't have a blocker here
but... this setup seems really townsided so idk
at least us 3 are basically vanilla ics today

Slingshotwaffles

died

last night. There's a number of ways that could have happened if they tried to shoot you, I guess... but none of them seem particularly likely.

[CCC]

No!

I solved the game. Vote Hiraki!

Show us some decent reasoning, then. Or find some other way to convince us that you are Town.

[CCC]

I gave you the game. I'm not here to look town, I'm here to find scum and that's what I did! \o/

Then I believe I shall leave my vote where it is for the moment.

[CCC]

I felt like I must have played rly incompetently but looking back. But it appears that my EoD Town reads are 4/5 thus far.

Statiscally speaking, that's... not

actually

all that impressive.

You had six Townreads, out of twelve players. (You -

might

very well still be Mafia yourself; but for the purposes of the below calculation, I shall assume that you are not; I shall also assume a scumsize of three Mafia players).

Now, if you take six players at random out of twelve (in which there are three Mafia) then you will include either zero, one, two, or three Mafia, with the remainder in the half you left behind. The odds of choosing one are the same as the odds of choosing two the odds of choosing three are equal to the odds of choosing zero. In other words, the odds of a randomly selected six players out of twelve containing no more than

one

Mafia are exactly 50%.

So, even

if

NTRP is also Town... you're not exactly doing significantly better than random chance, here. (And if NTRP is scum - which admittedly is not looking all that likely - a random selection of six "townies" on Day One has a 50% chance of guessing at least as well as you).

[CCC]

One thing we should look into is any notable change in interactions pattern between the time when nero first replaced in and was widely townread based on predecessor, and nero's associations towatds the end of day 1 when people were starting to suspect him. I will have decent internet access when I'm back at my hotel room after Tom, so this will have to waiti till then

I look forward to your analysis, when you have the chance. But make sure to enjoy your holiday, too!

[CCC]

I think that my tr on Giga might be misplaced, some things I noticed that bothered me yesterday/today. Some scum bussing scum rhetoric that I noticed.

I should be back later tonight to talk about it.

I'm currently reading Giga as a good deal Townier than you, but I'd like to see your arguments nonetheless.

[CCC]

I think that my tr on Giga might be misplaced, some things I noticed that bothered me yesterday/today. Some scum bussing scum rhetoric that I noticed.

I should be back later tonight to talk about it.

Cant wait for this.

Giga hardbus neto for towncred to win game? Was nero the only wagon D2?

Yes. (I don't think any other wagon managed to push to more than four posts over the entire day).