Mini 2065 - Access Point [Endgame]

[Ankamius]

Heya Alisae

I actually just woke up myself, I will do some catch up before work but no guarantees of how far I will get before I have to leave

[Ankamius]

Would you be disappointed if I shower first

I might miss being able to if I do catch up stuff immediately

[Ankamius]

That will be an hour and a half

Okay I'll be back soon

[Ankamius]

Btw I haven't played with most of the plist

So general reads into personalities might help

[Ankamius]

Okay I've read enough to be able to comment on this.

RC, to be scum, would be walking a very interesting tightrope this game.

1. He very likely sent obvtown NSG to the access point, who, as he has said, has a reputation for being a strong town player (I personally have not played with her before, but I can trust it to be true). She also has a reputation for having a beyond terrible scum game, as evidenced by the fact that I replaced scumher in a game last year and was read as locktown solely because she had even bothered to post at all.
2. This means that for RC to be scum this game, he HAS to try to win by sending 2 scum to the access point if he is not specifically trying to be pushed in there himself. This is doable for him and if he IS scum this game, this would easily explain why he would put NSG in the access point first. I could easily see him seeing her as the only threat to him in this playerlist.
3.

this means you should be trying to read RC by the players he is pushing into the AP rather than the player himself.

I would like everybody's read on ruirui specifically and why when everybody next posts. I am pretty sure RC is just town this game, but I will also make damn sure to check his work to make sure that this play works.

[Ankamius]

And Alisae idk, I've never played with insomnia before

I know labrat strongly believed that the read was accurate, but I don't know her well enough to know how trustworthy that read is

And that push was... well, never going to be well received in the first place. It was the wrong time to do it

[Ankamius]

Yes please, Ali

[Ankamius]

I've done the extremely loud pushing thing on incorrect reads enough to know its not the best indicator of accuracy :S

[Ankamius]

I understand what you mean Ali, I'm just too careful for that.

My role in games is to be a town lead or support based on the level of play active in the game, with town leading being the focus in weaker lobbies and supporting being the focus in stronger lobbies.

This is definitely a game where I'm much better for checking people's work rather than trying to solve the game myself. So my predecessor's read and read strength is going to factor in how I read the game, but I'm not going to sheep it just because she thought it was strong

[Ankamius]

I'll get back to this when I have time to, Ali

You have permission from me to go to bed early

[Ankamius]

I think I need to be caught up on all the mechanics talk to have much more to add and that will take too long for me to say anything before having to leave

[Ankamius]

Here's a funny idea

What if the very low activity posters are all the scum

[Ankamius]

I'm kinda thinking this is one of those games where 2 scum will be easy to catch if for no other reason than how the game progressed

There's actually a ton of scum equity in the low content posters atm

[Ankamius]

Is this a good time to say I've been loosely following the game for most of it

[Ankamius]

Roster I think

[Ankamius]

This is me acknowledging reading the posts since my last one

Please do not finish this day before I can properly answer, I have a lot to say

[Ankamius]

Namely that I don't agree I am the best AP choice today

[Ankamius]

I think in a LyLo environment I can read that slot extremely well.
I’ve done so in the past, and I will do it again.

Unless ywall want to AP me, I won’t stop you.

Pedit: Kay~

Who is this post responding to? You said this after a post about you wanting to send me to the AP today and a post about your slot

[Ankamius]

I hope that if you decide to access point me today (I will only accept it if BOTH vigs want it) that it's because of my play rather than because of a replace out

[Ankamius]

Alisae please tell me you understand why I would be paranoid of you pushing to AP me today

[Ankamius]

Insomnia can you describe your playstyle for me please?

[Ankamius]

okay

can you describe to me roughly how your thought processes work in these games

[Ankamius]

I mean how do you approach the game in general

I want to get a read on your personality and how it applies to mafia because I think I need that in order to read that properly

[Ankamius]

tbh I think the vigs are useless in most scenarios

but I haven't thought about them too much either so

[Ankamius]

that helps, thank you insomnia

[Ankamius]

Alright so here is what I think for today:

I believe that all of Rc slot (Alisae), Labrat slot (Ankamius) and Insomnia are town - Of those, aside from me, I think the most likely to make it into an AP today or tomorrow is Ankamius. I do think that Insomnia would be lynched in a final 3 scenario, and would also suspect NSG who I trust

There was talk about RCE going to the Ap - I don't agree with this, I'm null reading them and would feel nervous about them being sent

I didn't have a read on Locke coming into today, looking over him I think he's towny, with reasonable doubt

It makes me nervous that all the scum would be in the lurkers though - DT, BRVR, Rooster

idk how to take this post

[Ankamius]

actually

honestly, I think Insomnia is just town

I'm seeing the benefits of an RC-slot vig, but I still would much prefer not having to pull the trigger on that; I'll go into it more once Alisae and I have another engagement again so that it's not poisoned by em knowing what my thoughts are atm

[Ankamius]

actually

honestly, I think Insomnia is just town

I'm seeing the benefits of an RC-slot vig, but I still would much prefer not having to pull the trigger on that; I'll go into it more once Alisae and I have another engagement again so that it's not poisoned by em knowing what my thoughts are atm

ftr

my reasoning for thinking RC-slot being shot could be a good thing is very different from Insomnia's

[Ankamius]

I think in a LyLo environment I can read that slot extremely well.
I’ve done so in the past, and I will do it again.

Unless ywall want to AP me, I won’t stop you.

Pedit: Kay~

wait

are you referring to the game where I posted a giant wallcase and then you literally just reaction tested the other guy and locktowned him from that?

[Ankamius]

hey DT

where's your head at

[Ankamius]

RCE can you quote where you explain that for me please

[Ankamius]

yes

[Ankamius]

ehhhhh

I just skimmed NSG's ISO briefly and I really really don't think that's ever scum EVEN WITH a lot of coaching

so that's like... all the paranoia gone

I think this game is just a town stomp lol

[Ankamius]

I was initially worried that RC specifically pushed NSG into the AP in order to build enough raw towncred to push both of his buddies into the AP alongside her, which would implicate Ruirui + RCE (or alternatively, one of the lurkers while he pushes himself to the AP)

but Alisae specifically pushing for me to go into the AP second instead made me paranoid that NSG was actually scum and Alisae was trying to do the same thing via that one post about being able to read me in LyLo, the way it was worded pinged me a very bizarre assumption since I was assuming that one of us was going to be shot N2

but I don't think that's doable anymore unless NSG upped her scumgame significantly than I remember

[Ankamius]

and otherwise I don't see what exactly RC's scum plan was so Alisae becomes locktown

[Ankamius]

ftr I think Alisae knows well enough not to put townNSG and townme in the AP together

that's just an easy way to instantly lose the game since I strongly doubt any scum in this playerlist can fool BOTH of us well enough to prevent us from locktowning each other, especially if we have an entire night + day phase to talk it out first

that's too high risk

[Ankamius]

5.Alisae
6.GuiltyLion
12.Ankamius
13.TheGoldenParadox

9.insomnia

1.DoubtingThomas
3.RuiRui
7.BRVR
8.Locke113
10.rosterfoster
11.RCEnigma

^50% chance of any of the above being scum

time to read the thread!

[Ankamius]

I think a vig shot is not useful today

[Ankamius]

I'm actually okay with being sent to the AP today, the main reason I wasn't was because my initial thought was that the only reason to send me there over allowing me to eat the NK would be to sort NSG directly... which would make my presence here tomorrow a lot more important than having me in there and having no effect on who the third person sent is

[Ankamius]

I still want to have at LEAST two scum locked down before day ends in any way btw

don't rush

[Ankamius]

Yeah no DDL dying only really serves to try and discredit RCs reads and it's not a kill he makes when he can push DDL through with a partner day 1 for town cred. Scum should want lylo less than town tbh.

So scumshading RC looks good on RC and Scum RC never sends NSG for town cred. And as Town RC doesn't advocate for Scum!Nsg if he has any doubt. DDL also came around on his nsg read so she's pretty locked for town either way.

I believed that RC's plan was either to send scum-NSG into the AP first and hardpush his other buddy in
or to push townNSG in because he HAS to, and then force both of his buddies or one buddy and himself in

I don't think there's a scenario where he specifically pushes for a LyLo as either alignment except in the EXACT way he did, it's very bad for scum to have to fight strong town in that environment

[Ankamius]

what exactly was the case on Rui being town?

the first few posts ring scum to me

[Ankamius]

So with that in mind my thoughts on Rui are that she could be scum with nsg but never with RC if nsg is town. Like, for scum RC to push nsg through he would have to actively try to be AP'd. Which didn't happen so the shared read is already enough for me to push rui through. In the event all three of us were wrong I trust nsg's ability to reassess.

Locke flipping scum at any point kind of points to Rui being town I think? Just from how he left room to pivot from the read.

I don't remember if ddl agreed on Rui though.

if all three of you are wrong, then there's much bigger problems than that

and no, RC-slot is locktown; the way he played makes zero sense as scum in this gamestate

[Ankamius]

Yeah no DDL dying only really serves to try and discredit RCs reads and it's not a kill he makes when he can push DDL through with a partner day 1 for town cred. Scum should want lylo less than town tbh.

So scumshading RC looks good on RC and Scum RC never sends NSG for town cred. And as Town RC doesn't advocate for Scum!Nsg if he has any doubt. DDL also came around on his nsg read so she's pretty locked for town either way.

I believed that RC's plan was either to send scum-NSG into the AP first and hardpush his other buddy in
or to push townNSG in because he HAS to, and then force both of his buddies or one buddy and himself in

I don't think there's a scenario where he specifically pushes for a LyLo as either alignment except in the EXACT way he did, it's very bad for scum to have to fight strong town in that environment

With DDL dead and RC advocating Rui then me you can see fmpov I would have to then assume the exact scumteam to be RC/NSG/Rui right?

I strongly doubt NSG plays the way she did as scum unless her scumgame drastically improved,

even with

RC coaching her

her scum meta last I knew was literally to not even play, I really really really doubt even coaching would get her to make all the posts she did in the timeframe that she did as scum even with RC's influence

I simply do not see it ever happening

[Ankamius]

So with that in mind my thoughts on Rui are that she could be scum with nsg but never with RC if nsg is town. Like, for scum RC to push nsg through he would have to actively try to be AP'd. Which didn't happen so the shared read is already enough for me to push rui through. In the event all three of us were wrong I trust nsg's ability to reassess.

Locke flipping scum at any point kind of points to Rui being town I think? Just from how he left room to pivot from the read.

I don't remember if ddl agreed on Rui though.

if all three of you are wrong, then there's much bigger problems than that

and no, RC-slot is locktown; the way he played makes zero sense as scum in this gamestate

If all three are wrong it's still a town pushed AP.

yes but if ruirui is scum then it's a massive problem since it literally doesn't matter if NSG can sort them in the access point, we still NEED to send town in D3 or we lose... and we would be assuming that we sent only town in

and scum get an extra nightkill to potentially kill a slot that is most likely to figure it out

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Alisae

I'll park here atm

[Ankamius]

oh I'm pretty certain town has already won

but we still have to prepare for the small % chance that something's gone wrong

[Ankamius]

oh yeah I forgot rce existed

so it's not like an active player thing

{rc
nsg
DDL
insomnia
roster
ruirui}

6/11

should be 3 scum in the remainder

for the record i agree on ruirui, ddl, and disagree on roster.

i was actually thinking just yesterday that this might be one of those games that's just sort by postcount to find scum.

i think we're in a really good position. pretty sure you only need 6 locktown to have a confirmed win regardless of who scum kills, and i -think- we're close to that?

at the moment i think {ruirui, rce, RC} are all pretty town and scum can only kill one of them.

people have been waiting for my reads so here they are, roughly

{nsg, GL, tgp}
{DDL, ruirui, RC}
{RCE}
{BRVR}
{DT, roster, insomnia, labrat}

Keep in mind that my reads may shift a lot given being able to look at people's play on later days. These reads aren't ordered.

Pretty much only gonna elaborate on townreads.



DDL – I've wavered a bit on my DDL read but I think I feel pretty good about it. As I've said before, I've liked his real-time interaction with the thread this game, which as far as I can tell is pretty much his entire ISO. I lean towards that as scum he would be making fewer, larger, more crafted posts that responded to a lot of things at once. I think that that's many people's idea of "how to be townread", although I can't speak for DDL personally.

I also think that scum probably has some plan for how they want to play this if I'm being sent today, and I think that unless he is scum with the lowest posters in the game (BRVR, Labrat, Locke), their plan is probably not "DDL self-votes and asks people to vote him as well"? I've misread this in the last FakeGod game like this where Davesaz as scum kind of just self-voted like that and I townread it, but yeah.

---

RuiRui– I think RuiRui has just been playing pro-town enough to warrant being townread. Like, there's always the argument that in a setup like this there'll be scum who just play very pro-town in order to get selected themselves, but at a certain point i think you have to just look past that and say that if someone is playing like that then it makes them town.

I think these posts are probably genuine:

Spoiler:

What if scum shoot who we access point every night?

They can still be nightkilled

nevermind, I'm wrong

I think this post shows reasonable doubt that might not be there if RuiRui were scum (to argue against myself for a moment, however, RuiRui did townread RC earlier in a slight contradiction to this):

My support for your plan is reliant on you not pushing for yourself to be in the final 3

Finally, I think these posts are just fairly town motivated, especially for a situation in which it appeared that i was just going to be sent fairly quickly. I would imagine that scum might care more about projecting towniness in order to ensure being selected the next day.

Spoiler:

I have other townreads I'd like to discuss tomorrow

I'm kind of impatient with not talking about reads even though I said not to do it earlier

---

RC – Gonna be fairly concise here. I think RC would hold no sentiments about playing directly to win if he were scum here. I recognize that my replace in, if he were scum, would certainly shift whatever plan he already would have had to win – I also think that he would probably still townread me here if he were scum (although it's been a long time since that situation has popped up).

That being said.
I think that his desire to avoid being sent to AP along with me most likely comes from town.
I think that his response to insomnia is most likely a town one.

Don't currently believe that he's scum.

Spoiler:

also think that ruirui's comment to GL is way >rand town, I don't think scum tbem would be so ballsy as to just say hey this guy should be leashed because they scumread me

i think ruirui's town too lol

i don't think i scumread a single active player

oh yeah I forgot rce existed

so it's not like an active player thing

{rc
nsg
DDL
insomnia
roster
ruirui}

6/11

should be 3 scum in the remainder

I guess I'd tier that differently

{RC, nsg, DDL}
{Insomnia}
{Roster, ruirui}

{other people}

I agree with town ruirui

I think rcenigma is the only slot that strikes me as having any not really that deepwolf equity with regards to the not wanting either of us sent D1 and a few other things

Happy for her to be sent

If I die I would slightly prefer ruirui over rce btw

ruirui is my gal

Ok no I'm not risking rce being scum and shooting me

If I die strongly prefer ruirui be APed

My support for your plan is reliant on you not pushing for yourself to be in the final 3

No offense but I'd prefer if Golden Paradox directed GuiltyLion to shoot at somebody

I think what town needs to be doing right now is getting the vig opinions on NSG/Insomnia and likely pushing one of them through to access point, I think talking about other reads hurts town by giving scum a guideline on who to kill

all towny posts imo

I don't believe that town insomnia incorrect scumreads literally all of

myself
NSG
Ruirui
DDL

Whereas as scum yeah he needs to get in access point and that means attacking townreads on ruirui and pushing for me to be vigged. The only universal townread that he hasn't discredited in some form over the last two pages is RCEnigma who also happens to be the person who said that they didn't want to be access pointed. I didn't realize this was scum reading, I thought it was just a random newbie.

Also notable that the way they deal with the NSG being access pointed thing is disgusting. I'm being pushed as scum and discredited because I'm agreeing to send the best town player on MS and someone whose scum meta is narrow enough to be unmislynchable over myself. I'm not the only one who can clear NSG on meta in this game.

Town play in this setup is to look for town. Scum play in this setup is to discredit townreads.

Also his me/nsg conjecture doesn't even make sense

Why would I want to send my scumbuddy to AP over myself

Why would I not want to go to AP because my scumbuddy did

Why do I want to reach F3 and have my flip heavily incriminate my buddy

Scum me just takes access point D1 and wins final 3 and I have more than enough townreads and wim to force it. I don't believe that you believe what you're saying, you're just looking for excuses to not accept RuiRui AP and dayvig me so I can't also compete with you on AP

Did I mention the only universal townread you didn't discredit was the one who said they didn't want to go to AP?

Then sending whichever of me or ruirui is still alive

Do you think this is ever SvS, DDL

If I'm dead ruirui

But ruirui is my girl

If I'm dead lock in ruirui

If I'm dead ruirui -> survivor of DDL/RCE

Do not nominate insomnia no matter what

Still have weird feelings about RCE but I'm not sure if I wouldn't have them if they were town

you're getting one of DDL or rui.

VOTE: ruirui

Ruirui is town
DDL is now flipped town

Why would scum ever shoot me?

VOTE: ruirui

I had to make a statement

you are not better than myself or NSG. I don't care what you think your read is. even if Insomnia is actually town we're not access pointing him and we'll win.

no. do you scumread ruirui? if so, why?

ok, so why should I blindly trust you

if rui is literally your second strongest townread then I'm not understanding why you feel the need to make this big of a fuss about it.

also there's literally no point in saying just shoot you. if you're scum you guys are already all in on getting insomnia in and the flip won't hurt your chances any more than not all inning will. if you're town, it's not going to change anyone's actions.

it's literally between ruirui and rce for today.

anything you say about insomnia is irrelevant. if you have any thoughts about rce ruirui or myself, then you are welcome to share them :]

like either you think that literally RCE/Ruirui/RC is 3 scum or you think that I've given you the opportunity to put forward at least 1 townie for access point. why don't you either decide that we're all scum or search for the townie(s)?

[Ankamius]

one thing I'll note is that RC kept posting that ruirui was his preference to put in the AP day 2... yet DDL died?

[Ankamius]

what are the odds that RCE and ruirui are both scum :V

[Ankamius]

ahhhhh that's what the desire to be vigged is for

okay it's unlikely then

[Ankamius]

idk

I really don't like the lock 3 reads down d1 thing exactly because of a situation like this

and DDL even pointed it out at the beginning of the game

[Ankamius]

VOTE: ruirui

I'm okay with this

[Ankamius]

I'd feel a lot more comfortable sending ruirui if we don't use any vigs

if we use any vigs, I'm no longer okay with it

[Ankamius]

it just adds risk

I'm okay with it now because I don't see any reason why this ruirui -> ank/ali plan would get disrupted by herpaderpness barring me completely misreading RC and not correctly reading what he would do this game (which is technically possible but like 0.1% odds)

regardless of whether ruirui is town or scum, I'm pretty sure that wins town the game

if we add a vig shot to it, odds are good it would just be another town vote we don't have d3 which can potentially cause problems

[Ankamius]

ftr I think Alisae knows well enough not to put townNSG and townme in the AP together

actually, sorry to disappoint but
I actually have no idea what the fuck you’re talking about

that's fine

I'm already well past the point where that matters

[Ankamius]

the game doesn't feel solved atm all of a sudden and idk why

UNVOTE: ruirui

[Ankamius]

good timing

I'm going to bed soon

[Ankamius]

I'd like to see what TGP has to say and if GL has changed his mind first

[Ankamius]

Has a single person here even seen my scumgame before besides Alisae?

[Ankamius]

ok

so do you have any thoughts other than BRVR being town?

or really even why BRVR is town?

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Ankamius

meh

I'm just now realizing that both of the conftowns have 1/3 of my posts combined

I think there's very good odds that DoubtingThomas/BRVR/rosterfoster have 2-3 scum within them

I really really doubt that these slots that are pushing to AP me have very high scum equity except maaaaaaybe locke

[Ankamius]

Tbh the best option is to shoot me, discover I’m town, then send BRVR and Insomnia into the access point and town wins.

this post is like

insanely scummy though

wtf

[Ankamius]

I don't see any scumteam he fits with atm so he's probably town

the only way I could really see him being scum right now is if there was a particular reason to prevent me from going to the access point but the fact that the only person who supported the rui AP was me kind of indicates that isn't an actual thing

[Ankamius]

I guess it's technically possible he's scum with roster and BRVR but that's... still... yeah

that scumteam never wins this setup

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Ankamius

Promise is a promise

[Ankamius]

what are your reads atm TGP

[Ankamius]

I hope that if you decide to access point me today (I will only accept it if BOTH vigs want it) that it's because of my play rather than because of a replace out

I still stand by this btw

[Ankamius]

or

we could avoid vigging

[Ankamius]

cool beans

I'll be back tomorrow I guess :D

[Ankamius]

VOTE: RuiRui

Best start thinking about your AP tomorrow guys, I'd bet I'm the NK tonight

[Ankamius]

I don't support APing myself without the support of both vigs, and TGP doesn't want me APed

[Ankamius]

1 part RC's read. 1 part how easily slots townread labrats replace out but not RC's and then just ditched all of his reads on rep out. The pool of players supporting Anka but not Rui, that's nothing against Anka but obviously I'm going to ask myself why X group is willing to push Anka through if I think scum may lurk in it.

If we AP Anka over Rui I feel the night kill makes the game slightly harder which doesn't apply the other way around (Rui first).

What do you mean by this?

[Ankamius]

Ah I see

Tbh just AP two of rui/ali/me and the game is a town win I'm pretty sure

[Ankamius]

RC isn't scum here

[Ankamius]

Tbh this dichotomy depends on really what you would rather have

1. Easier lylo in access point in case our collective townreads are off? I'm the safer AP

2. Easier chance to make the correct decision d3 to avoid a potential instant scum loss or lylo? Send Rui

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: RuiRui

Holy fuck that wagon is gross

[Ankamius]

I strongly doubt the team is locke/insomnia/DT

So at least 1-2 scum are on that wagon

[Ankamius]

Fire it at me Alisae

[Ankamius]

I want to see what other people think about it first

I think I have a good handle on what scum are trying to do here but this would confirm it I think

[Ankamius]

I am pretty certain I have the 3 scum pegged

AP Rui and then Alisae tomorrow

VOTE: RuiRui

[Ankamius]

There's a good reason I'm not supporting APing myself

I think it causes a needless risk

[Ankamius]

There are exactly 2 scum on the ruirui wagon

But that's on purpose

[Ankamius]

Insom

Are you scum?

[Ankamius]

Do you understand why APing me is risky if my scumteam read is true, RCE?

[Ankamius]

None of the flips matter at all in this case

[Ankamius]

Then you know who I think is the scumteam Alisae?

[Ankamius]

I actually think APing me is smarter because Ank if your read is correct, the night kill will show it.

UNVOTE: Ruirui

Lemme think about that

[Ankamius]

I would like the vigs to check in yes

[Ankamius]

mmmmm... We might have different reads or I'm not understanding what you mean Alisae

My current read atm is that it's only important I don't go today

[Ankamius]

I mean... it technically only matters in that APing me allows a scum play that otherwise isn't

I mean... literally just me knowing about it at all makes it useless but still

[Ankamius]

Then ultimately it really doesn't matter I think

As long as the AP is within that group of three, I think town always wins

Now to wait until the vigs check in :V

[Ankamius]

I think that's their only shot at winning yes

[Ankamius]

[Ankamius]

I'm pretty sure I have a different view of what's going on but the Leven of paranoia it gives me is a small blip if anything

It ends in the same place anyways

[Ankamius]

Yeah but them at least acknowledging what we are doing could help make sure the game isn't derailed tomorrow, no?

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Alisae

[Ankamius]

I've only caught on to my specific scenario :V

[Ankamius]

btw, as a secondary reason for me not wanting to be APed specifically

I'm much stronger out here in the thread at large handling the game as a hole rather than dealing with a lylo situation considering I HAVE YET TO EVER WIN A SINGLE ONE ON THIS SITE

[Ankamius]

btw, as a secondary reason for me not wanting to be APed specifically

I'm much stronger out here in the thread at large handling the game as a whole rather than dealing with a lylo situation considering I HAVE YET TO EVER WIN A SINGLE ONE ON THIS SITE

yeah let's not go with that innuendo

[Ankamius]

I've never won a 3p or 4p

I've also never solo endgamed

[Ankamius]

Btw

If we only have been sending town so far to the AP D1 and d2, d3 is effectively "lylo" In the main thread

It might be impossible to get everyone on the same page enough to send a third town in for the win in that circumstance

[Ankamius]

It should be yes

But it would feel worse and be harder to watch

[Ankamius]

Present and accounted for

[Ankamius]

I see nothing is new.

I'll be back tomorrow!

[Ankamius]

I'm conftown in my heart

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Alisae

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Alisae

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Alisae

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Alisae

Vote goes back if that isn't fulfilled

[Ankamius]

All the nonAlisae voters are the slots that aren't playing

[Ankamius]

I'll be around for a good while too

[Ankamius]

If I had known that like 80% of my paranoia that game was unwarranted at the time, I'd probably had been upset

[Ankamius]

BRVR is obvscum lol

[Ankamius]

I don't think vig shots are a good idea

[Ankamius]

shrug

I think roster is pretty close to obvscum too but there still is the option that he really is just really bad town this game as he suggested

[Ankamius]

if there was a lulz vigshot available I'd do it to confirm scumteams but that doesn't exactly help anymore anyways so

[Ankamius]

I like being a vig too but there are some games where you have to be disciplined with them :P

[Ankamius]

GuiltyLion out of curiosity

what do you think scum's plan are this game if they have one

[Ankamius]

*plan is

[Ankamius]

oh, yeah that's drastically different than what I thought

[Ankamius]

but my theory also depends on you being scum so...

[Ankamius]

GuiltyLion out of curiosity

what do you think scum's plan are this game if they have one

I think NSG is/was town and they're trying to work their way in D2 or D3

RC's gonna hate me for being paranoid of his slot and while I'm like relatively high confidence it's town, if he were scum here, he'd have to get a buddy in on D2/D3 as consensus was forming not to do NSG-RC access point and he had already agreed to that himself. maybe that buddy would be Rui?

but if scum!Alisae replaces in and is able to talk down the RC paranoia as scum, then they'd push to get Alisae in today

if NSG/Alisae are both town then they probably just ff at this point or just go all in on whoever the most townread member is

Scum!RCs plan was very likely to win by sending two scum into the access point, which is strongly shown by him not pushing to send himself there (at least not right away)

technically there is a chance that RCslot and Ruirui are both scum (and in which case this current plan singlehandedly loses the game) but I don't think that has a very good chance of happening.

And tbh even if it is, then I'm blaming this game on most of the town not even playing so

[Ankamius]

ftr I think there's very high odds that I'm the NK if I'm not sent today

[Ankamius]

if NSG is legitimately scum this game, she pulled off a damn impressive game and I would not feel bad losing to it at all.

[Ankamius]

It seems like I’m always not getting the nks.

Why was DDL shot instead of Rui?

What did he do to get nked?

Did he town read someone? Rui was being town read by a lot more people.

I sometimes don’t get the nks in this game

:V

[Ankamius]

can you go into that more GL?

also TGP does not support that AP

[Ankamius]

tbf the way you lose to a scum!NSG or scum!Ank here is by sending in a scum d3, assuming we go with sending me today

like yeah both our scumgames are bad but that's still something you need to keep in mind with statements like that

[Ankamius]

Rui doesn't seem like scum to me. I wouldn't send them to AP today, but I would send them in the future if we had to.
People who I think we can safely send on AP today or tomorrow:
NSG
RC
RCE
I'm not sure about the entire meta gaming thing that's happening about RC. Wouldn't it be in somebody's best interest to act the same way for each and every game no matter what? It just gives you away in games if you are extremely talkative and helpful as mafia, but only have about one post every few days as town. If you keep acting the same way in each and every game you're in people aren't gonna be able to out you as scum or town day one from how active you are. A problem with acting the same way each game is that some people like Rui or Insomnia (Sorry didn't see which and I don't want to go back to read and see who it was.) will doubt what ever you say and won't trust you no matter what you do. What i'm saying is using RC's previous games as scum or town isn't really that good of a plan. I've never meta gamed or payed any attention to it so I dunno. Maybe Meta gaming is the best strategy you can do in this situation? From my experiences though Meta gaming is frowned upon in many games I've played on the forums and online games which is probably why I have this opinion of it.

one other thing I've been thinking about

everyone's saying BRVRVRVRV is obvscum. I agree

who's the scum that they're suggesting gets Access Pointed here?

I think they're purposely being useless

[Ankamius]

I currently think there is a maximum of one scum that is trying to win atm

it's actually very detrimental for scum to make a determined push of any kind on D2 when the AP has been pretty much set all day

the thing I'm worried about is that the plan scum have is to wait until D3 to push for a scum to go into the AP and hope to win the LyLo from there

[Ankamius]

well the idea is that they're trying to get one scum townread enough to push for that

[Ankamius]

like that's what I'm paranoid of with insomnia

if he's trying to town up really hard to try to charisma his way to the AP...

I mean... I don't think he wins against both NSG and me in the AP, but it's the best gambit he can do to get a strong enough global townread to pull that off

[Ankamius]

I believe so too, but what other options would he have lol

[Ankamius]

I really wish I had the opportunity to talk with NSG in real time this game

[Ankamius]

GL do you think NSG is locktown or close to it?

[Ankamius]

:/

this game is so simple but it feels really difficult

[Ankamius]

if NSG and I are BOTH town, then I think it literally doesn't matter who you send

I think it will be obvious to both of us that the other is town just from interacting in the AP

[Ankamius]

:/

well fuck

[Ankamius]

insomnia I'm curious what's changed between before when you really wanted me pushed into the AP and now?

[Ankamius]

do you believe there's good odds I'm scum here Alisae?

trying to push myself to be APed D3 is a strategy I would be able to come up with but executing on my strategies are always a huge weak point for me as scum

[Ankamius]

yeah but if town gets pushed in D3

then I still have to deal with NSG!town

[Ankamius]

and I've never played with NSG before

I HAVE to respect her reputation and cover my bases to make sure I'm townread for my actions as well going into the access point

it's not as simple as "town replace out means I can just coast on it" in this situation for me

[Ankamius]

Who’s “town” for you?

This plan only is really necessary if I have to carry the scumteam

and with how the gamestate is, that's extraordinarily likely

[Ankamius]

I promise that I will make damn certain that NSG is town before voting the third slot in a LyLo situation

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Ankamius

[Ankamius]

tbh

I think there's essentially no situations where I'm not NKed otherwise so... :/

my best preference is to be here D3 to help solve but ofc I had to replace into the obvtown slot so fuck my life

[Ankamius]

is that what you believe is happening atm Alisae?

[Ankamius]

I meant the bolded, Alisae

[Ankamius]

Alisae do you believe NSG and I will be able to sort each other properly in the AP?

[Ankamius]

we can talk about the game afterwards if you like

[Ankamius]

deep breaths alisae

[Ankamius]

Welp

[Ankamius]

hi momo

[Ankamius]

this sure is a mafia game we are playing

wao

[Ankamius]

this sure is a mafia game we are playing

wao

[Ankamius]

depends on what he actually does lol

[Ankamius]

but I'm looking forward to pegging all three scum today :]

[Ankamius]

ngl him specifically shading my slot and ruirui's slot is making me more comfortable just listing him off as scum though

[Ankamius]

please tell me it was something I did

[Ankamius]

what do I win?

[Ankamius]

momo can you unpack RC's opening to the game

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Ankamius

[Ankamius]

Uh dude
There’s no reason not to wait for replacements here

[Ankamius]

momo you understand that what you are suggesting as scum's plan here is exactly what I started this game trying to solve, right?

[Ankamius]

The vig shot on RC is if he flips scum, then there is a really high chance of NSG being scum with him.

I'm town regardless of whether RC is town or not (although I think that he is). There is no universe in which me and RC are both scum here and the decision is made to send me. It just doesn't happen.

like

I've neve played with NSG before

but I HAVE played with RC plenty of times and I've seen enough about NSG's townplay and scumplay to believe that this is very likely to be genuinely true.

RC's plan in this scenario is to win by sending two scum into the AP, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense with NSG being scum unless the third is Ruirui or RCE.

[Ankamius]

even though the lobby at the start of the game was about midtier, that's an incredible risk to send scum!NSG into the AP alone to fight out a LyLo without RC's support.

that's not a plan I would associate with a competent scum like RC.

[Ankamius]

The vig shot on RC is if he flips scum, then there is a really high chance of NSG being scum with him.

I'm town regardless of whether RC is town or not (although I think that he is). There is no universe in which me and RC are both scum here and the decision is made to send me. It just doesn't happen.

like

I've neve played with NSG before

but I HAVE played with RC plenty of times and I've seen enough about NSG's townplay and scumplay to believe that this is very likely to be genuinely true.

RC's plan in this scenario is to win by sending two scum into the AP, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense with NSG being scum unless the third is Ruirui or RCE.

See that's the thing. I don't like RuiRui or RCE in this game.

I've established my reasons on RuiRui. On RCE, I believe he's said that he has ideas that he doesn't want to share.

I understand this from a veteran member like RC but from someone relatively new like RCE it seems like posturing. That said, I can't remember a game with him so I don't know.

do you think that all the town just stopped caring?

[Ankamius]

Well, Occam's razor disagrees with you.

DrDoLittle is confirmed town and was active.
northsidegal was active and sent into the AP day one.
GuiltyLion/TGP are confirmed town and... somewhat exist. They are mostly irrelevant to this but it should be noted that their relative inactivity is not as indicative as the rest partially because they are conftown and partially because they cannot be added to the access point and have to be very specific with their vig shots.

Now who's left?

RC/Alisae -> very active across both slots, left because of playstyle differences
Labrat/Ankamius -> inactive town replaced by active town, both slots tried to ensure their townreads are pushed into the AP
Insomnia -> very active, looking to push townreads into the AP
RCEnigma -> not very active, but looking to push town into the AP
RuiRui -> not very active, but looking to push town into the AP

there's only four slots left that really haven't played to a town win condition.

I think your slot is the most likely town among the four because Locke still at least tried and you are currently trying, but...

BRVR just pushed whatever, didn't seem to care.
rosterfoster just pushed whatever, didn't seem to care.
DoubtingThomas did fucking nothing, didn't seem to care.

What picture does this paint to you, momo?

[Ankamius]

Alisae just block him please

I'll avoid quoting him

[Ankamius]

tl;dr

I'm seeing evidence of all but three players playing to a town wincondition
and exactly three players NOT playing to a win condition

[Ankamius]

BRVR’s catchup post does not come from scum though.

I’m not going to lie, I tried and failed to read the pages I missed.

Tbh the best option is to shoot me, discover I’m town, then send BRVR and Insomnia into the access point and town wins.

VOTE: Ankamius

I’m useless this game, whatever.

If you think I’m confscum you should shoot me, then you can start rethinking things when you realise I’m shittown.

What if I vote with you?

VOTE: RuiRui

It is painfully obvious that BRVR is town though.

Also it’s gonna be hilarious when you discover I’m just playing like shit.

Yeah I think I’m gonna pretend these games never happened. I’m usually so much better.

This is not playing to a town win condition.

[Ankamius]

Oh my god i'm so sorry I forgot I was in this game. Only thing I'm surprised about is that two people replaced out. Another thing i'm surprised about is that people are town reading me despite the fact I've not even been paying attention to the game nor trying to. I just read around 12 or 13 pages and i'm pretty slow so that's gonna be hard for me to process. Right now I'm unsure who we should send if the mafia get another kill tonight. I'm convinced that these players are town
RCE
Alisae
Ankamius
I'd send Insomnia on the mission tomorrow if everybody wants to, but if it goes to Lylo I might end up voting them over NSG and... i think Ank or Rui who are the top candidates for being APd today?
I might have more tomorrow cuz i'm tired and this was all thought of in about a span of like 45 minutes

Yeah if we had to shoot somebody i'd probably shoot me or RosterFoster or another inactive poster. I'm just very useless right now cuz... i'm usually useless. That vote on me is really weird i'm most likely scum if scum are lurkers. I'm just really unsatisfied by my lack of good posts. I haven't really contributed to anything except agreeing with common reads i think? Anyways i'm gonna VOTE: Rui Rui based on Roster's bad vote on me. Rui Rui was gonna be sent tomorrow right? I'll explain what i'm thinking tomorrow if the day ends while i'm sleeping.

Roster is a bit scummy to me and I wouldn't vote with them. Why not Rui then you/RCE tomorrow? Both plans work well and we'll still win.

That turned around quick. I'm gonna keep my vote on Rui Rui though.
Really hard to explain why but i'll still tell you guys tomorrow even if you guys still AP Aliease. Not like after today like in game tomorrow is what I mean.

This is heavily disengaged. Consistent with scum not knowing how to continue playing the game.

[Ankamius]

rce
nsg
RC
insomnia

everyone else

DDL
Locke

is where i am at

gonna have to iso others, tbh

sup kids what have i missed

not connected to this game ata alll

why are we AP'ing anka, tbh

@mod

Sorry, I have been completely out of this game and all the players in this game deserve better.

I'll replcae out

This is heavily disengaged. Consistent with scum not knowing how to continue playing the game.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Ankamius
labrat's push for insomnia felt genuine and I've liked Ankamius so far so I'm fine with this.

Also I believe Insomnia, did you suggested vigs shoot me? Not inherently opposed to idea but what information would it really give town?

Locke, are you fine with Rui being sent into the AP today?

Yes, I think I mentioned that Rui was part of my D3 pool during D1 though I'm not sure. I don't really care that much whether its D2/D3 so I would be fine with APing Rui if that appears to be the majority opinion today.

Hmm, why haven't you wanted to be AP'd? Locke and DT.

:lol:
1st. I had no delusions that it would be even remotely a possibility in the first place
2nd. I have 0 experience with this setup or a setup like while the game has been filled with people with a much better grasp of not only mafia in general but this setup specifically
3rd. If there is a mafia in the pool by the end of D3 and I was AP'd, we lose. I'm not a strong enough mafia player to put the responsibility of winning the game for the rest of town, only one of whom would be there to help me, on my shoulders

This is Locke genuinely believing what he is saying despite being very inactive.

He's playing to a town win condition.

[Ankamius]

I'd be comfortable with RCE in the AP too

Alisae seems town to me

Ankamius is my preferred AP today

would be fine with insomnia in AP

Anyone else aside from me I don't want in the AP

I just want Grand Paradox to come back and take a looksie at labrat/Ank again, since that's the only reason we couldn't push that in

NSG/Alisae/Rui (fear of insta loss here from Alisae-Rui powerscum team)

Just fyi I had the opportunity to hammer Alisae earlier but you said you were going to post thoughts so I held off

I townread labrat independent of the replace out at the end - ank was saying she doesn't want to be ap'd just because of the replace out

I don't think this is a lose, I'm townreading NSG + Ank and I believe they can make the right call if a lylo situation occurs, also there are many people I am find with sending so I think we can win without the lylo

IF RCEnigma is scum then they embarked on a mission to tunnel me into the AP just to make me look bad after they flip

But they aren't setting themselves to be in the AP 3rd and I don't see any other scum getting into the AP

And if there's no scum in the final 3 then town wins

If I get nked send Alisae

RuiRui shoots you
RuiRui points to this post to discredit me

If that goes to F3 she can win that fairly easily.

What do you mean? For us to both be in final 3 we'd have to be AP'd today and tomorrow, if you get sent d2 then why does insomnia dying the next day mean anything? Plus I'd push for Ank. If I get sent d2 then I can't be shooting anyone - I noticed in the rules that the mafia can only talk to each other during the night.

I kind of feel like bvrv is pushing me into the ap with the expectation that they'll be shot today

which makes me kind of side-eye you then asking for that to be shot :/

Alisae relax

I'm town, I'm not going to nitpick about you if we're alive on day 3, I trust your slot to be town

Does anybody here think that RCEnigma can be scum if I'm town?

I'm ok with Alisae in the AP too

I think it's important to understand that without the ability to talk during the day, it can be hard for mafia to have a coordinated plan of attack - that's a good explanation for the current gamestate

This does not look like there is a scum agenda behind it. What exactly is RuiRui going to do in the AP in a LyLo situation against town!nsg and town!me/town!alisae? the two most active leader types still in the game right now? I would strongly assume there would be wooden posting or some form of panic/giving up but I'm really not seeing it here.

[Ankamius]

Alright then Ali, given that you've decided not to let your emotions slip through, please describe in an objective manner beneficial to town why DayViging you right now doesn't increase our chances of winning the game (and please don't make the argument that "I know I'm town because anyone can say that).

Can you objectively deny that this basically confirms NSG and Anka as town both to each other and the general town, guaranteeing us a win in LyLo.

NinjaEdit: I see your point Anka. I can say that I'm town and should be sent to AP but I would say that as scum too. If you all think I'm town, you should send me but my main focus rn is finding two more townies.

I can say that if we choose not to DayVig Alisae, I'm fine with myself being sent. But that said, then I wouldn't know if I should trust NSG in lylo.

NinEdit2: Yeah roster is def not getting sent to AP.

NinEdit3: Roster might just be lazy but BRVR and RuiRui being scum together is something I can accept.

That said Anka, while I agree with your scumreads, my main question is who are your town reads and who do you support getting sent to AP. Also, what are your thoughts on an Alisae DayVig?

I don't agree with anyone being vigged.

I don't think the AP should be outside me/alisae/ruirui primarily due to the slight odds of insomnia still being scum deepwolfing.

[Ankamius]

that's interesting momo, because I'm like 90% sure I'm dying tonight if I'm not sent into the AP

[Ankamius]

I'm getting really close to just parking my vote on myself and leaving the thread

[Ankamius]

I don't trust anybody to meta Creature anymore after how universally wrong everyone was on him in Anuket

[Ankamius]

purposely not hammering yet

[Ankamius]

who

RCE or me?

[Ankamius]

funny story btw

I don't think anybody has stated yet that if we vig town today, suddenly it takes all but one town voting a single town to push them into the AP instead of two.

[Ankamius]

..

[Ankamius]

yeah I'm leaving the thread for the day

bye

VOTE: Ankamius

[Ankamius]

I'm town.

[Ankamius]

If that's the hammer and not the endgame, I believe NSG is town. RC would want to town NSG regardless of his alignment.

Day 3, we vig the RC/Ali/Random Replace in slot. If they flip town, we win LyLo.

If they flip scum, we send me to LyLo to win the game.

btw I'm really skeevy of this

[Ankamius]

remember when I went into how scum would want to make their move D3?

that's exactly what that looks like.

[Ankamius]

THANK YOU FOR NOT MAKING ME CHOOSE IN THAT LYLO

[Ankamius]

I almost certainly would have picked insomnia, but I also am pretty certain already I can't read him ever so

[Ankamius]

I honestly was thinking that if I was put in that scenario, I'd just reaction test NSG to push her out of her range and then lynch insomnia

shrug

[Ankamius]

RC what was your plan?

[Ankamius]

I was pretty clearly wrong about you trying to push double scum in the access point but I'm not entirely sure what you were looking to do otherwise :V

I assume push yourself in D3?

[Ankamius]

ngl I'd really be upset at labrat's replaceout as scum too :/

if it helps, I was in the queue for a good while before that so I didn't specifically try to replace into that slot

[Ankamius]

the other thing I will say is that nsg was really fun to talk to in the access point

I feel like I missed out last year

[Ankamius]

I still kinda feel like that's ultimately why I got APed in the first place

[Ankamius]

sigh

[Ankamius]

Ank couldn't be APed b/c no one ever thinks ank is scum post flips

what do you mean by this?

[Ankamius]

OH

you mean for scum

I got you

[Ankamius]

tbf though

I haven't ever won a single 3p lylo on the site

so

[Ankamius]

I'm sorry rc :V