NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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In post 65, VitaminR wrote:Unvote, Vote: LoudmouthLee
I'm not a fan of any of the MafiaSSK votes on this page. Feels like a bunch of strong players going for an easy target. I especially don't like LML's #62, which nicely sets up a potential switch to the MafiaSSK wagon while maintaining a push on Tigris. Seems like something scum might do to make sure that two wagons keep momentum.
As in: the response was in the abstract rather than talking about what the vote was concretely supposed to do in this game? Meh.In post 51, chamber wrote:Her words weren't actually meaningfully responding to the context of the question.
Vote:VitaminRI want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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In post 81, chamber wrote:Discussing things with you seems like it would just annoy me, so I'm not going to, hence my first response being dismissive.
10 bucks says chamber is town. Green crayon is also looking vaguely pro-town here.In post 82, Green Crayons wrote:I look forward to a long and illustrious game of you ignoring my questions!I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Hi.
Do you think you know why I'm voting you?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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In that one post, you hard-defended SSK and implicity attacked everyone on his bandwagon (saying it looked like a , and attacked people for being on the tigras wagon, and voted LML for being on the tigras wagon and FOS's SSK. Without naming names other then LML, you hinted at a suspicion for the "strong players pushing the SSK wagon" (which, at the time, probably meant Seol and PJ, since they had made the real cases against SSK). You also implied that you thought that both tigras and SSK were town, without really explaining why.
Defending both SSK and tigras, the two leading bandwagons, and going after people like LML, PJ, and Seol all at once is an incredibly ballsy move, and I don't really see why you would stick your neck out like that so far, so early in the game, based on so little.
So my initial thought, reading your post, was that your behavior here would make the most sense if you're a scum who already knows SSK's and tigras's alignment.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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On a side note, I agree with a lot of what PJ is saying about SSK. That's part of the reason that VitimanR's hard-defense of SSK stuck out at me as a weird move; based on the evidence to that point, there really wasn't a good reason to defend SSK, as far as I can see. I can understand people not wanting to jump on the wagon right away, but going as far as to defend SSK just seems off.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Hey. I'm back. Half asleep, but back.
I'm getting some weird vibes off of Undo's posting so far this game. Kind of wishy-washy. Kisses up to everyone in first post, votes DGB "as homage". ? Says MafiaSSK's post #45 " doesn't look right", but then hedges that read, and doesn't vote. Takes off random vote on DGB without voting anyone else. Then later votes SSK.fos:UndoPosting and voting pattern so far looks overly cautious.
Oh, and to answer your question, Undo:
VitimanR's move is only "ballsy" because if SSK or Tigras flip scum eventually, he looks linked to them, and it creates a lot of confusion. My suggestion was that VitimanR's move would be a lot less risky if he already knew SSK's and Tigras's alignment.Wouldn't that 'balsiness' make VitaminR more probable to be town?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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In post 246, undo wrote:
May I recommend you to get some sleep then? Your acumen seems to be impairedYosarian2 wrote:Hey. I'm back. Half asleep, but back.
I'm getting some weird vibes off of Undo's posting so far this game. Kind of wishy-washy. Kisses up to everyone in first post, votes DGB "as homage". ? Says MafiaSSK's post #45 " doesn't look right", but then hedges that read, and doesn't vote. Takes off random vote on DGB without voting anyone else. Then later votes SSK. fos:Undo Posting and voting pattern so far looks overly cautious.
No, but seriously, you've just made a chronological list of some of my actions in this game. What's actually suspicious about them? The fact that I am excited to be playing this game (shame on you for dismissing my sincere first post as fawning!)? The fact that I don't vote when I don't find anything immediately voteworthy?
Not everyone plays the same way. I for one don't follow my gut. I don't go voting or fosing people without having minimally solid arguments to do it. If you take one action that I find dubious but not necessarily scummy, I'll take note of it for myself. If you keep on acting dubiously, I will have reasons to find you scummy and evidence to justify my read.
I've been asking questions to several players (some of which remain unresponded) to collect material, so to speak -- but until I form anything valid and concrete from that material, I keep my votes to myself.
In general, your play thus far looked overly cautious for day 1, like you were trying extra hard to stay on good terms with everyone. If there's any point at all to random voting, it's to try to create pressure or get something moving early in the game, but you placed your random vote in such a way as to make sure it didn't create any pressure, and the you dropped it without explaining why and without voting anyone else, at a time when no one else was voting DGB. You seemed to imply that you thought SSK was suspicious, but would rather vote for nobody then vote for him; you then voted for him eventually, but you seemed hesitant to do so, and joined the wagon fairly late. (In fact, i would say that SSK actually looked less scummy when you voted him then he did when you declined to do so). Your first comment about SSK seemed kind of wishy-washy, trying to both say you understood why he looked suspicious while negating that in the same sentence.
In my experience, scum tend to be more cautious then town; they hesitate about voting, they try to avoid making any "enemies", they are more inclined to be wishy-washy and to try to have it both ways then to make a strong stand on anything, all because their main goal is to never get lynched; and that's been my impression of your play so far.
I think VitR is somewhat suspicious. If we lynch him he does flip scum, then that would make LML look more town-ish to me. I'm not sure it would say much about Jelly or about Seol.I see what you mean. So considering you think VitR is scum, are you townreading LML, PJ, and Seol?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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In post 210, Glork wrote:Incidentally, I am SUPER DUPER AMUSED that people are crying foul at MafiaSSK's "big wagons good" theory, whenat the time he referred to my wagon as "almighty" he jumped AWAY from it, thereby creating a greater spread of votes.
Like, this wagon is legit based on nothing SSK did to actually hurt the game, and just on his theory crafting.
Getting townie vibes from Glork here. His posting about the SSK wagon just feels honest to me.
People who are likely town-
Chamber
Glork
GreenCrayons
DGB and Albert also feel like they're playing within their normal day 1 pro-town meta, leaning town on both of them.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Ok. How would you distinguish between "SSK is acting scummy" and "SSK has a very different view on mafia theory and scumhunting tactics then I do" here? I certainly agree that looking for association tells on day 1 between random people seems like a bizzare way to scumhunt, but I'm not really understanding the scum motivation here, or why you think that's more likely to come from scum then town.In post 258, undo wrote:Yosarian2 wrote: I voted for him because between one post and another, he kept on coming out with some hardly defensable conjectures (I'm mainly referring to his posts 156 and 173). When he said he thought CES's post 137 (and I invite you to read it again) was scumdiscreetlyshowing agreement with a scum partner, he really just seemed desperate to come up with any connection, any valid suspicion that could shake off the heat he had on him.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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I know you replaced in late, but that was 2 days ago, and the thread is only 11 page long.In post 263, Natirasha wrote:I'm lurking.
I'm going to give you another 24 hours to read the thread and post something intelligent about it. If you haven't done so by then, I'm going to vote for you.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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LmL, can you explain what your stance was on Tigras was again? Was it a random vote, or was it an actual suspicion, and if so, why? I'm getting a little confused about what you're trying to say here.In post 282, LoudmouthLee wrote:
So, to paraphrase you: You're voting me because I went along with two (wait, one and an FoS) weak wagons with less than 7 pages on D1, and when I find something that truly looks and smells scummy to me, I change my vote to that person?In post 281, VitaminR wrote:That's all you're going to respond to? I've already explained multiple times why I felt your move stood out in particular. You're just picking on my wording there.
When I voted StD, I had a grand total of 2 or 3 votes on me (You, DrippingGoofball- who will vote for me regardless of anything whatsoever due to history, and Albert- who also likes voting me as well) - Hardly a wagon. There was no real pressure (sorry!) for me to make a move. I did it because I'm actively scum hunting.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Are you implying that you think VitR and LML are scum together? That doesn't feel likely to me at this point.In post 288, Untrod Tripod wrote:and I'm not trying to back off my VitR or LML reads there. I still feel strongly about those.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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You're still not really explaining your thought process here. What was it that Tigris did that, in your mind, was suspicious enough to warrant a FOS?In post 302, LoudmouthLee wrote: Yos, going back to the opening page, my first post was a dice roll (myself) and the second post was a re-roll. Tigris was the vote in RVS. I didn't move it to begin with because of Tigris's hop on MafiaSSK for being the third person to vote on a wagon, twice. I kept my vote on Tigris instead of moving it because (a) no one, at the moment, was more suspicious and (b) my vote was there already.
I know this may not make any sense, but my suspicion of Tigris would have not have warranted a vote at the time... but since my vote was already there, I kept it there. It would have warranted a FoS.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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In post 265, Yosarian2 wrote:
I know you replaced in late, but that was 2 days ago, and the thread is only 11 page long.In post 263, Natirasha wrote:I'm lurking.
I'm going to give you another 24 hours to read the thread and post something intelligent about it. If you haven't done so by then, I'm going to vote for you.Vote: Natirasha
You have 3 choice; you can play the game, you can replace out, or you can die. It's totally up to you, but one of those three things is going to happen today.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Not really. When someone has a meta of making short, declarative statements about who is town or scum without explaining, it can actually make them easier to read; you just have to look at the timing of the statements and figure out why they're making them at those moments and what they're trying to do. The key is to not try to look at the posts in isolation; it's to look at them in context.In post 325, Save The Dragons wrote:
?In post 257, Yosarian2 wrote:DGB and Albert also feel like they're playing within their normal day 1 pro-town meta, leaning town on both of them.
Both of them have metas that take little effort to fake.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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In post 343, LoudmouthLee wrote: [*]One of my favorite things to do is to find the village idiot and hunt scum off of the wagon. That used to be a really easy way to find scum. Also, when you have an outspoken "foot in mouth player" (such as myself and DGB), we become mafia fodder as well.
Ugh. This one makes me cringe, especially since I remember LML as being especally hard to lynch most of the time. Is he really using the "I'm a village idiot so scum like to target me" defense here? His posts have felt off to me for much of the game, and this just feels like a scummy defense.
The biggest problem I have with his play so far, though, is that there's very little real scumhunting. Most of his posts seem to be him making excuses for not doing much proper scumhunting yet, which really bothers me, and feels both out of character and scummy. His attempts to have it both ways with Tigras still bothers me, but it wouldn't bother me so much if he was also scumhunting. The only other real scumhunting he did was his STD vote, but that also feels pretty weak to me; he doesn't really explain it, and he doesn't press it, or try to put pressure on STD, or try to get STD to answer any questions or anything.
VitimanR feels less suspicious to me now. Still wouldn't mind an Undo wagon.
For now,vote:loudmouthleeI want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Not really. The timing is everything.In post 377, Save The Dragons wrote: Since scum know who the town are, doesn't it make it easier to say XXXXX is town when you're scum?
Several times this game, DGB declared someone town just at at moment where I felt the same way. She's getting a lot of the same gut reads that I'm getting, and that's hard to fake as scum. Also, you can tell a lot about motivation based on timing; I don't see a scum wanting to declare SSK as town on page 5 where she did, for example.
I donno, maybe it's just because I've played with her so many times, but this feels like town-DGB play, specifically.
Also, frankly, declaring this many people town as scum is likely to screw you over in the long run. It's not a good scum strategy to have as many town reads as she does, because you'll probably have to go back on some of them eventually in order to get enough lynches to win.
It's like the old rule for reading Internet Stranger's alignment. People thought he was unreadable because he never made arguents, but I actually felt that that made it a lot *easier* to read him; just look at who he's trying to lycnh, where, and figure out why, and you know his alignment.
Maybe it's more a theory dispute then anything, but random votes are there both to generate pressure and because it's theoretically better to lynch someone at random then to lynch no one at all; you don't drop them for no reason, you drop it if you have somewhere better to put your vote, or maybe if you think the person you're voting for looks town.Save the Dragons wrote: Dropping a random vote without explaining why is suspicious? This entire section seems like a stretch.
That was more a minor point, in an overall pattern I've see in Undo's posting of excessive caution, of a reluctance to pick fights with anyone who might fight back, and a certain hesitancy. It's only a moderate scum tell, because I don't know Undo's playstyle, but in general that is behavior I expect to see more often in scum then in town.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Oh, for the record, STD is town. So far, he's picked a fight with Seol, LML, me, and PJ, who are 4 people that are all absurdly good at getting people lynched, all in the first 13 pages of day 1, without any obvious benefit to him from picking all those fights. So either he's righteous town cloaked in the paladin-like armor of righteousness, or he's gone completely suicidal. No way a scum pretending to scumhunt would stick their neck out that far.
He even attacked me for attacking Undo for the same thing he attacked Undo for earlier this game, which is so completely inconsistent it must be a town tell.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Quite a few things. I did just mention, though, that I'm less suspicious of VitR then I was several pages ago, and yeah, I suppose it's for a similar reason, although to a lesser extent.In post 386, Sotty7 wrote: What's the difference between STD and VitR?
I don't really get his UT vote, either. It also bugs me that both of LML's suspects (STD and UT) are people who were attacking him.LML's push on the wagon hopping just rubs me the wrong way completely, but I'm starting to think that it is just a playstyle difference with just how committed to it he is. I think if you're looking at wagoning you have to include reasoning otherwise you're only getting half the picture. The UT vote adds up considering, but I'm still not 100% buying it, just seems weak to me.
LML Calling UT's Nat vote "opportunistic" is also a huge stretch. It was extremely unlikely that Nat was going to actually get lynched; it was much more likely that he would either respond to pressure and start posting again (probably by lashing out at me for voting him) or else replace out. In order to actually get lurker lynched around here, you *really* have to try. And, in any case, pressuring Nat at that point seems to obviously be a pro-town act.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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[quote="In post 393, Save The Dragons"
Douchy question: do they really?
Better question: have they in this game?
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Do random votes often/ever lead to a lynch?[/quote]
(shrug) Not very often. About the most you can say for the various strategic/theoretical reasons for random voting is that they're slightly more likely to accomplish something then making a first post with no content at all would be.
I just have a pet peeve with people who think there's a "random vote phase" where you vote people for no reason and then you drop the vote later for no reason. If you're going to random vote, you should have a theory/strategy reason for why you're doing it, it shouldn't just be because it's what the cool kids do. And any reason you may have for random vote, quietly unvoting later for no reason, without voting anyone else, at a time when no one else is voting the person you're voting for, makes it completely pointless.
But, like I said in the beginning, that's all just theory. I mostly just mentioned it because it fit the overall pattern of caution and hesitancy.
Basically. When you get rid of your random vote, it should generally be because there's someone else you'd rather vote for, or because you have some other concrete reason.I was about to bark at you some more, but I assume that you are suggesting that not voting anyone is scummier than unvoting a random vote.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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[quote="In post 393, Save The Dragons"
Douchy question: do they really?
Better question: have they in this game?
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Do random votes often/ever lead to a lynch?[/quote]
(shrug) Not very often. About the most you can say for the various strategic/theoretical reasons for random voting is that they're slightly more likely to accomplish something then making a first post with no content at all would be.
I just have a pet peeve with people who think there's a "random vote phase" where you vote people for no reason and then you drop the vote later for no reason. If you're going to random vote, you should have a theory/strategy reason for why you're doing it, it shouldn't just be because it's what the cool kids do. And any reason you may have for random vote, quietly unvoting later for no reason, without voting anyone else, at a time when no one else is voting the person you're voting for, makes it completely pointless.
But, like I said in the beginning, that's all just theory. I mostly just mentioned it because it fit the overall pattern of caution and hesitancy.
Basically. When you get rid of your random vote, it should generally be because there's someone else you'd rather vote for, or because you have some other concrete reason.I was about to bark at you some more, but I assume that you are suggesting that not voting anyone is scummier than unvoting a random vote.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Weird double post; MS might still be being strange.
Anyway:
Eh. Like I said, your claim that Nat was an "opportunistic wagon" doesn't make much sense to me; there was never much chance of Nat being lynched. And your other argument looks pretty weak; UT just comes off as the "aggressive" playstyle, aggressively pushing wagons to get reactions and to speed up the game.In post 396, LoudmouthLee wrote:
@Yos: did you just skim or completely miss this post and the subsequent discussion?Rationale:
[*]UT has been on 3 of the major bandwagons, the most out of any player (tied with StD)
[*]UT was also on the Nat wagon which looked incredibly opportunistic at the time.
He voted Tigras for, as he called it, "shameless bandwagoning" (he even said "choo choo" as he did it) but dropped the vote a few posts later because he thought Tigras was looking town. Then he voted you, at a point when you were, in fact, starting to look pretty scummy. Then he joined my Nat lurker pressure wagon, in what I think is a pro-town move.
None of that looks scummy to me.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Consistency is a scum tell.In post 399, LoudmouthLee wrote:
Oh! That's cool, Yos! Find an inconsistency and call it protown? That's the weirdest thing you may have ever said.In post 381, Yosarian2 wrote:Oh, for the record, STD is town. So far, he's picked a fight with Seol, LML, me, and PJ, who are 4 people that are all absurdly good at getting people lynched, all in the first 13 pages of day 1, without any obvious benefit to him from picking all those fights. So either he's righteous town cloaked in the paladin-like armor of righteousness, or he's gone completely suicidal. No way a scum pretending to scumhunt would stick their neck out that far.
He even attacked me for attacking Undo for the same thing he attacked Undo for earlier this game, which is so completely inconsistent it must be a town tell.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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I mentioned it in this post here:In post 412, Sotty7 wrote:
You did? I missed it, can you point me back to the post or elaborate on why he's no longer as scummy to you.In post 387, Yosarian2 wrote:Quite a few things. I did just mention, though, that I'm less suspicious of VitR then I was several pages ago, and yeah, I suppose it's for a similar reason, although to a lesser extent.
VitimanR has been falling in my suspicion for a while. I originally voted him because I didn't like his attack on LML (the reasoning didn't make much sense to me at the time), but as the game has been going on, VitiminR has been looking steadily better, while LML has been looking worse and worse. Now, I'm just thinking that LML's scumhunting has just been off all game, and perhaps VitiminR just spotted that before I did (and perhaps didn't articulate it very well).In post 379, Yosarian2 wrote:In post 343, LoudmouthLee wrote: [*]One of my favorite things to do is to find the village idiot and hunt scum off of the wagon. That used to be a really easy way to find scum. Also, when you have an outspoken "foot in mouth player" (such as myself and DGB), we become mafia fodder as well.
Ugh. This one makes me cringe, especially since I remember LML as being especally hard to lynch most of the time. Is he really using the "I'm a village idiot so scum like to target me" defense here? His posts have felt off to me for much of the game, and this just feels like a scummy defense.
The biggest problem I have with his play so far, though, is that there's very little real scumhunting. Most of his posts seem to be him making excuses for not doing much proper scumhunting yet, which really bothers me, and feels both out of character and scummy. His attempts to have it both ways with Tigras still bothers me, but it wouldn't bother me so much if he was also scumhunting. The only other real scumhunting he did was his STD vote, but that also feels pretty weak to me; he doesn't really explain it, and he doesn't press it, or try to put pressure on STD, or try to get STD to answer any questions or anything.
VitimanR feels less suspicious to me now. Still wouldn't mind an Undo wagon.
For now,vote:loudmouthleeI want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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That's part of it. Also, townies who are going back and re-reading the game multiple times, trying to look for scum in different ways, will usually end up contradicting themselves one way or the other, because they're trying different theories on for size and are looking at the game in different mindsets using different (and sometimes contradictory) types of scum-hunting theories. Scum, on the other hand, tend to be much more aware of all the positions they've taken all game, and tend to work to avoid any internal contradictions they might be called out on.In post 410, chamber wrote: There is always a trail of bread crumbs explaining all of their changes of thought. This trail of thought breadcrumbs should exist for townies, but townies don't always state everyone of their thoughts, it wont be explicit. This is what I think you and yos meant.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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VitR's attack on LML doesn't look like distancing to me; if anything, he basically started the LML bandwagon, and pushed it aggressively even as it grew.In post 417, petroleumjelly wrote:5.)Yosarian2, why do you think LoudmouthLee and VitaminR are unlikely bedfellows?
I guess it's possible that VitR decided that he would literally start off the game first thing by basically bussing one of his scumbuddies right at the start of day 1 just to look extra townie, but I consider that fairly unlikely. If LML flips scum, then VitR is likely to be town.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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No, it's because Nat had contributed absolutely nothing, and was strongly implying that he was going to continue to contribute nothing.In post 423, LoudmouthLee wrote: c) Here's a really great question for you, PJ (and Yos, and EVERYONE ELSE ON THE POLICY KICK), why Nat, and not any of the other players that hadn't moved their votes? Because Nat was being adversarial. Was stirring the pot. Was angering people.
I don't care about him rolling into the game and asking someone else who to vote for; provocative move, but not necessarally scummy. But then him never even reading the thread itself, and even just saying he was "lurking" was just too anti-town to let stand.
I wish you would.d) Why not let everyone else do that? You guys can go after the lurker tells (I don't believe in them) and I look to actively scum hunt.
I really am not a fan of your voting analysis; that might be fine for a starting point, but I would expect some follow-up scumhunting on your part, and I haven't seen it.
So, you did a voting analysis, and UT jumped out at you. Fine. After that, did you go back and read his posts in ISO? What did you think about his posts and about what he was actually saying? Do you have any questions for him? Do you have any comments about his playstyle, or arguments with anything he's said, or anything? Nothing in your posts gives me any indication that you did. I get a similar vibe from your STD vote, too; you voted him, fine, but then you just...stopped. You didn't really say anything more about him, or question him, or attack any of his posts, or try to put pressure on him, or anything.
I just get the disturbing feeling that you did a vote analysis, used it as a reason to park your vote on UT, and then just stopped thinking about it instead of continuing to scumhunt and to try to figure out your suspect's alignment after that point. It feels more like a scum looking for an excuse to vote then a town who really wants to figure out someone's alignment. And I get that vibe from both of your "serious" votes. (Assuming that the Tigras vote wasn't serious; the ambiguity around that still bugs me as well).I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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...In post 428, Glork wrote: Yos's switch from VitR to LML is particularly cringe-worthy and smells like scum trying to ride the tides to an easy lynch.Vote: Yosarian2
Have you read LML's posts this game, Glork?
I mean, like, ANY of them?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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It's part of the same pattern. Like I said in my initial vote, both that vote and the STD vote feels equally bad; like he's just looking for an excuse to look like he's scumhunting, but isn't really interested in finding out anyone's alignment. Overall, I get the feeling he's much more interested in trying to explain and defend himself then in trying to find scum.In post 436, Glork wrote:Hey Yos, since you're here, what motivation do you see for scum-LML parking his vote on UT? Saying "this guy's votes are bad" and waiting for a response/reaction (which hasn't even come, I might note) seems pretty okay to me. Why is this such an issue for you?
Tell me if I'm crazy, I haven't played in a while, but nothing in his posting this game feels like the town-LML posting I'm used to. It all just feels off.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Uh. What "games" am I playing? I thought I was being completely straightforward.In post 439, Porochaz wrote: Yos is playing games which I don't particularly like. I remember him as a straight forward chap as town.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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So you're suspicious of me because I was stirring shit up and trying to create pressure and get reactions during a time when most of the rest of the town was still just random voting? That seems like a strange reaction on your part, especially for you to bring up now. Isn't trying to get reactions like what I was trying to do with vitR obviously helpful to the town at that stage of the game?In post 442, Porochaz wrote:In that you were asking VitR to guess the reason why you were voting him. My memory of you would be to be fairly "to the point" with your suspicions.
I'm equally confused by people like Glork for apparently expecting me to stick with a page 5 suspicion for the rest of the game, and claims to find it opportunistic that I switched to a better suspect when I had more information. Just weird play, I don't get it.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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In post 445, Sotty7 wrote:
I think you're crazy, but what do you expect LML's town posting style to be like?In post 440, Yosarian2 wrote:Tell me if I'm crazy, I haven't played in a while, but nothing in his posting this game feels like the town-LML posting I'm used to. It all just feels off.
More analytical, more information-gathering, more debating people he finds suspicious. This game, either he's not scumhunting other then a few bloodless voting analysis posts, or else he's keeping his cards very close to his chest, and neither is what I would expect of him.
I looked back at old games of his to see if I was remembering correctly, and while he hasn't played a (non-ongoing, non-newbie) game in quite a while, it does look like my memory is correct. I believe this is his most recent, completed, non-newbie game.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
He was town, and I'm getting a totally different vibe this game. Of course, that was 4 years ago, so who knows, but his play here doesn't feel right.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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My impression of LML's posting isn't that he "really stuck to his convictions". After all, he hasn't really done any follow up, or made any additional points against UT, or really tried to convince anyone else to vote him. It looks more to me like he made a vote based bad reasoning to create the illusion of scumhunting, and then spent a lot of time defending his actions after he was attacked for them.In post 500, Glork wrote: To be frank, if LML-scum were to make this kind of attack and really stick to his convictions when questioned about it, I'd expect UT to be scum. Earlier in the game, UT was suspicious of LML among others, but didn't really pursue the optino very heavily, which could be a possible distancing link. Coming out of the break, LML tried to show that he was putting forth the effort to vote for UT, and he defended his vote when people questioned his argument's validity. I could potentially see that coming from LML trying to put some distance between himself and a scumbuddy, so that if one of them eventually died, it would lower suspicion on the other one.
Compare and contrast his UT vote with his PJ case. I think LML is actually trying to lynch PJ. Note that PJ actually has a bandwagon against him, and is also probably a more significant threat to LML at the moment. I don't think LML was actually trying to lynch UT; I don't think he really cared one way or the other, he just wanted to look like he was doing something. The style of attack is quite different.
(It's also possible his UT vote was distancing, sure; I don't disagree with that. I don't think LML flipping scum here would tell us much about UT's alignment one way or the other.)I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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...
I don't know if you noticed, but this town is clearly not going to tolerate lurkers. We already made that point once, with Nat. Contribute something.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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In my experience, at least for competent scum, scum tend to be very good at keeping their posts and their votes consistent, while town tend to be much more distractable and all over the place, because town are actually trying to hunt scum with incredibly limited information (so any little thing may send them off in a radically different direction), while scum are just pretending to do so, so they're less likely to change their minds.In post 539, undo wrote:Enjoy my second serving of loose notes. They mainly concern pp. 15-20, because I’m still catching up on the last couple of pages.
De Yosarian
I really can’t let this pass without making a comment. I hope you were being hyperbolic for rhetorical purposes, because otherwise that is a very dangerous aphorism. I mean, you could say "Consistency is not a town tell" or "Trying too hard to be consistent (vide MafiaSSK...) is a scum tell". But saying "consistency is a scum tell" is a gross simplification and also potentially misleading. Inconsistency (that is, the lack of coherence in one's reasoning and reaction patterns) is the primal indicator of a latent dishonesty. If your post history shows signs of core changes in your frame of thought, you undoubtedly are more likely to be scum.In post 401, Yosarian2 wrote:Consistency is a scum tell.
When I first started saying that consistency is a scum tell, several years ago, it was honestly mostly for shock/reaction value. As time has gone on, though, I've found it to be a surprisingly effective tell in it's own right.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Anyway, I'm not interested in lynching PJ today, and the bookitty wagon feels kind of weak to me. What else do we have on the menu?
LML still looks like the best choice to me, but even though he hasn't done anything since his superscummy vote on PJ, that wagon has sadly faded away.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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>What's your current opinion of PJ? Are you not interested in lynching him today because he's PJ or because he's not significantly scummy to you?
His play seems reasonably pro-town so far to me; it all looks like standard PJ-style analysis, mostly on reasonable targets with solid reasoning. Not going to claim to have a strong read on him at this point, but nothing he's done so far feels scummy to me.
>Also, what do you think of Tigris/Kublai Khan?
Tigris's early play was odd, but that may be more playstyle then anything else. Don't really have a read on that slot right now; hopefully Kiblai Khan will post more content soon.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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For the record, LML indicated a couple of times that he was actually suspicious of TigrisIn post 560, Bookitty wrote: Meanwhile, LML is going after StD and dropping his … I don’t know why he was voting Tigris if not just laziness from RVS. I don’t think he ever indicated he thought she was scum up til this point in the game.
In post 62, LoudmouthLee wrote: Tigris's 3rd vote "vote" seems to play on the old timer's emotions... it's a "tell" that we all know and have looked at before. Almost like trying to garner trust with the town. I like my vote where it is right now, and...
Later, he implied that his vote on Tigras was merely a RVS vote:In post 70, LoudmouthLee wrote:
Am I not allowed to think two people seem scummy? If so, then I've been playing this game wrong for years.In post 65, VitaminR wrote:
...I'm not a fan of any of the MafiaSSK votes on this page. Feels like a bunch of strong players going for an easy target. I especially don't like LML's #62, which nicely sets up a potential switch to the MafiaSSK wagon while maintaining a push on Tigris. Seems like something scum might do to make sure that two wagons keep momentum.
When I questioned him about it, he basically tried to have it both ways.In post 278, LoudmouthLee wrote: I random voted Tigris via dice roll, and changed my vote to StD.
the whole exchange...made me uncomfortable. If he actually thought Tigris's initial posting was scummy, even if it was only slightly so, then it's weird for him to make basically excuses for keep his vote on Tigris like that. Is there really some line on page 5 where "X is scummy enough for a FOS, but you have to do Y to be scummy enough for a vote?In post 302, LoudmouthLee wrote: I know this may not make any sense, but my suspicion of Tigris would have not have warranted a vote at the time... but since my vote was already there, I kept it there. It would have warranted a FoS.
Honestly, if someone wasn't voting for anyone, and then FOS'd someone without voting, that early in the game, I would find that suspicious, but it sounds like that's exactally what he's claiming he would have done if not for the random dice roll. It's just weird.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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At this point, I'm mostly trying to get you to explain what you're thinking because I'm trying to get a read on you here.In post 571, Porochaz wrote:What interests me now, is you decided to make a thing out of it...I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Well, what do you expect from me; consistency?In post 575, chamber wrote:
Isn't this counter to your 'consistency is scummy' theory?In post 568, Yosarian2 wrote:the whole exchange...made me uncomfortable. If he actually thought Tigris's initial posting was scummy, even if it was only slightly so, then it's weird for him to make basically excuses for keep his vote on Tigris like that. Is there really some line on page 5 where "X is scummy enough for a FOS, but you have to do Y to be scummy enough for a vote?
Seriously, I wouldn't care if he random vote Tigris, and I wouldn't care if he voted Tigris because he thought Tigris was scummy. I also wouldn't care if he changed his mind. The way he's trying to have it both ways, though, feels scummy; it feels like he knew his Tigris vote was bad and was trying to distance himself from it, or else like he's trying to do a lot of tapdancing to make it look like his scumhunting was more honest then it actually was. It's not the contradiction that's the problem so much as what looks like an attempt to dishonestly smoothtalk it under the rug.
Tell me, does his explanation there make much sense to you?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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What information do you think we get if we lynch BooKitty?In post 611, mathcam wrote: I'm still fine lynching BooKitty -- I agree with her that she's a good information lynch, and that we need to get the game moving. If we lose a VT, we lose a VT.
Let's say, hypothetically speaking, we lynch her and she flips VT (which I think we both agree is the most likely outcome at this point). In that case, who would you want to lynch tomorrow based on the BooKitty wagon?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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That's pretty vague. How would it be "pretty informative"? If BooKitty flips town, then who on her wagon would you say looks scummy to you?In post 625, mathcam wrote: Yos: Lynching anyone at this point will be pretty informative -- BooKitty might even be slightly higher than usual given her generous contributions to the discussion so far, and Seol's (to me uncharacteristic) behavior this game.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Considering how many people have expressed suspicion of him, and how strong the case against him is, it's been remarkably difficult to keep any momentum going on the LML wagon.In post 619, MrBuddyLee wrote:Also, a question to whoever: have any of the major wagons in this game felt like they experienced more or less resistance than they should have at the time, given the strength of the case and the strength of the cases on competing wagons? I have my thoughts, will be glad to share but don't want to taint the pool before anyone else has a chance to think about/answer this.
Looking back on the thread, it's also a little surprising by how strongly people were defending mafiaSSK, relative to the quality of his posting.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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I think LML's odds of being scum are over 50%.
Bookitty's are probably around 10%-15%. Usually I'm in favor of lynching claimed VT's, but right now I think she's significantly less likely to be scum then random.
Anyway, mathcam, if you want to make a case on her being scummy (suspicious, more likely scum then random, or whatever), I'd like to hear it. If you think her lynch would be "especially informative", then I'd like to hear what specific information you expect to get from it; in my experience, town usually gets very little information from lynching a VT on day 1, and I don't see this example as being anything special in that regards. If you want to make both arguments, that's fine as well, but right now you haven't really made either case in a convincing way.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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In post 634, mathcam wrote:
I think this is related to the types of claims that no scum in his right mind would want attract the kind of attention that SSK did by repeatedly defending ill-advised theories. Do you think there's any significance to the fact that Seol disagreed with this stance? There was one post where he directly decided to weigh between whether SSK was scummy or wrong, and came down on the side of scummy. Realizing of course the conflict of interest of reading about my past self, I think this was odd, and my first inching of Seol in the scumminess direction.In post 632, Yosarian2 wrote:Looking back on the thread, it's also a little surprising by how strongly people were defending mafiaSSK, relative to the quality of his posting.
I don't have a strong read on SSK in either direction; I suspect he posts in a fashion much like that as either alignment.
That being said, I thought the strong defenses several people were making of him were kind of strange; he certainly didn't do anything that seemed especially townish, and the degree to which people were defending him from a quite early stage based on no obvious town tells seemed very odd. I commented on it at the time, actually; if you remember, that was one of the reasons for my early-game VitimanR vote. He wasn't the only one to do it, though.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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My first impression, reading that, was "townie trying to get their last words down in writing before they get lynched, without enough time to do a re-reading first". Why, what did you see?In post 645, chamber wrote:
This is a pretty big scumtell for me, but at this point I'm so wrapped in confirmation bias, can someone else confirm that they see it?In post 643, Bookitty wrote:chamber - this is weak for me. I go back and forth on it; I haven't played with chamber that I remember and I can't get any handle on his playstyle. Some things looked really scummy to me but I can't actually recall them now (I'm sure it's in my PBPA, though, for later.)I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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I'm not sure what part of my post you're disagreeing with. A huge number of people have expressed suspicion on LML so far this game, and yet it's been remarkably hard to keep a wagon going on him despite that.In post 663, Shanba wrote:
I don't like this post. The LML wagon hasn't had momentum because its bad, not because of some sinister scum plot, sorry. (There are, presumably, a lot of town left in a game like this. If a wagon isn't getting off the ground, then you're not just failing to convince scum, you're also failing to convince the townies. That's basically a truism.In post 632, Yosarian2 wrote:
Considering how many people have expressed suspicion of him, and how strong the case against him is, it's been remarkably difficult to keep any momentum going on the LML wagon.In post 619, MrBuddyLee wrote:Also, a question to whoever: have any of the major wagons in this game felt like they experienced more or less resistance than they should have at the time, given the strength of the case and the strength of the cases on competing wagons? I have my thoughts, will be glad to share but don't want to taint the pool before anyone else has a chance to think about/answer this.
Looking back on the thread, it's also a little surprising by how strongly people were defending mafiaSSK, relative to the quality of his posting.
People who have expressed suspicion of LML:
VitR
Albert
Green Crayons
Dripping Goofball (never really expressed, but kept her vote on the LML wagon for a long time)
Untrod Tripod
Save the Dragons
Yosarian2
Sotty7
MBL (kind of)
PJ
BooKitty
Granted, it looks like both Albert and DGB have changed their minds since then, but that's a hell of a lot of suspicion. Nearly half the people in the game have actively expressed suspicion on him by this point.
Eh. The thing is, if your buddy is being attacked, you're likely to express suspicion of him, maybe vote him for a bit, and then get off of him. Distancing without actually increasing odds of being lynched. Anyway, with 4 or 5 scum in a 22 person game, that's more then enough to subtly tilt the wagon towards town people.This kind of "oh x is hard to lynch" argument only makes sense to me in the context of a town that is flooded with aligned scum - a 3/7 or 2/5 type scenario.
After all, statistically speaking, scum are lynched significantly less often then random on day 1. There's a reason for that.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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This is a side note, but it's not really that hard to get to 50%. If 25% of the people in a game are scum, and then person X does something that you think scum are about twice as likely to do as town (say, a scum might do it 40% of his games while a town might do it 20% of his games), then that gives you a Bayesian possibility of about 50% that that person who did the scum tell is actually scum. (If 20% of the people in the game are scum, as may be more likely here, then need a slightly stronger tell to get up to 50%, but the idea is the same).In post 663, Shanba wrote: ((As a sidenote, mafia is a hard game and I don't think I would ever assign a >50% chance of being scum to anyone, like, ever. Beyond cop investigations or role information or whatnot.))
The difficulty is then translating that into a correct lynch in a case where a quarter of the people in the game are actively trying to sabotage the town's chances.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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This is still correct.In post 681, Albert B. Rampage wrote:do not lynch bookittyI want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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This is town DGB play. I have a pretty high degree of confidence in that.In post 691, CrashTextDummie wrote: It may not be good scum strategy to declare too many people town, but DGB has never conformed to to what is generally accepted as "good strategy" so your assessment of her play feels majorly off.
Do you disagree, or are you just nitpicking?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Mmm. Looking at his posts, CES is looking more then a little dodgy this game. All of his suspicions are just weird, and other then his focus on Seol and Bookitty, have seemed basically half-assed.
Assuming Bookitty flips town, then yeah, CES is likely scum.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Eh. I don't think SSK was trying to have it both ways on Tigris; his initial vote felt a little jokey, but all of the rest of his posts on the subject were just him trying to explain why he was suspicious of Tigris. His reasoning was pretty bad, but I'm not sure if that's a scum tell from SSK.In post 748, CrashTextDummie wrote:
Oh I see what you're getting at now, Sotty. It's a remarkably similar argument to the one I made against MafiaSSK. I disagree with Yos' conclusions here mainly because I think the quote from LML's #302 is a sufficiently reasonable explanation for what was going on. I'd be interested in hearing Yos' thoughts on MafiaSSK in light of this post though.In post 579, Yosarian2 wrote:Seriously, I wouldn't care if he random vote Tigris, and I wouldn't care if he voted Tigris because he thought Tigris was scummy. I also wouldn't care if he changed his mind. The way he's trying to have it both ways, though, feels scummy; it feels like he knew his Tigris vote was bad and was trying to distance himself from it, or else like he's trying to do a lot of tapdancing to make it look like his scumhunting was more honest then it actually was.
I'm kind of netural on the slot at the moment. I guess I expected mathcam to roll in and start giving off all kinds of pro-town vibes, and he somehow hasn't, really. Not sold on that slot being scum, but I guess we could do worse if it came to a deadline lynch.
I've been saying that Bookitty was a bad lynch since even before the whole VT claim thing that other people are talking about. It just feels like if we lynch her, she'll probably flip town.There's a persistent chorus of "do not lynch Bookitty" that contains Glork, Yos, ABR, GreenCrayons, DGB and maybe others. There are at least 2 scum in that list regardless of BooKitty's flip.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie