NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Yosarian2]

Hi everyone. Sorry, did not realize the game was starting so soon.

And I'm going away for the weekend; will be gone for about 3 days, from Friday to Sunday. Should be back on Monday, though.

[Yosarian2]

Unvote, Vote: LoudmouthLee

I'm not a fan of any of the MafiaSSK votes on this page. Feels like a bunch of strong players going for an easy target. I especially don't like LML's #62, which nicely sets up a potential switch to the MafiaSSK wagon while maintaining a push on Tigris. Seems like something scum might do to make sure that two wagons keep momentum.

Her words weren't actually meaningfully responding to the context of the question.

As in: the response was in the abstract rather than talking about what the vote was concretely supposed to do in this game? Meh.

Vote:VitaminR

[Yosarian2]

Discussing things with you seems like it would just annoy me, so I'm not going to, hence my first response being dismissive.

I look forward to a long and illustrious game of you ignoring my questions!

10 bucks says chamber is town. Green crayon is also looking vaguely pro-town here.

[Yosarian2]

Vote:VitaminR

Hi Yos!

Hi.

Do you think you know why I'm voting you?

[Yosarian2]

Hi.

Do you think you know why I'm voting you?

Nope, not at all.

In that one post, you hard-defended SSK and implicity attacked everyone on his bandwagon (saying it looked like a , and attacked people for being on the tigras wagon, and voted LML for being on the tigras wagon and FOS's SSK. Without naming names other then LML, you hinted at a suspicion for the "strong players pushing the SSK wagon" (which, at the time, probably meant Seol and PJ, since they had made the real cases against SSK). You also implied that you thought that both tigras and SSK were town, without really explaining why.

Defending both SSK and tigras, the two leading bandwagons, and going after people like LML, PJ, and Seol all at once is an incredibly ballsy move, and I don't really see why you would stick your neck out like that so far, so early in the game, based on so little.

So my initial thought, reading your post, was that your behavior here would make the most sense if you're a scum who already knows SSK's and tigras's alignment.

[Yosarian2]

On a side note, I agree with a lot of what PJ is saying about SSK. That's part of the reason that VitimanR's hard-defense of SSK stuck out at me as a weird move; based on the evidence to that point, there really wasn't a good reason to defend SSK, as far as I can see. I can understand people not wanting to jump on the wagon right away, but going as far as to defend SSK just seems off.

[Yosarian2]

Hey. I'm back. Half asleep, but back.

I'm getting some weird vibes off of Undo's posting so far this game. Kind of wishy-washy. Kisses up to everyone in first post, votes DGB "as homage". ? Says MafiaSSK's post #45 " doesn't look right", but then hedges that read, and doesn't vote. Takes off random vote on DGB without voting anyone else. Then later votes SSK.

fos:Undo

Posting and voting pattern so far looks overly cautious.

Oh, and to answer your question, Undo:

Wouldn't that 'balsiness' make VitaminR more probable to be town?

VitimanR's move is only "ballsy" because if SSK or Tigras flip scum eventually, he looks linked to them, and it creates a lot of confusion. My suggestion was that VitimanR's move would be a lot less risky if he already knew SSK's and Tigras's alignment.

[Yosarian2]

Hey. I'm back. Half asleep, but back.

I'm getting some weird vibes off of Undo's posting so far this game. Kind of wishy-washy. Kisses up to everyone in first post, votes DGB "as homage". ? Says MafiaSSK's post #45 " doesn't look right", but then hedges that read, and doesn't vote. Takes off random vote on DGB without voting anyone else. Then later votes SSK. fos:Undo Posting and voting pattern so far looks overly cautious.

May I recommend you to get some sleep then? Your acumen seems to be impaired

No, but seriously, you've just made a chronological list of some of my actions in this game. What's actually suspicious about them? The fact that I am excited to be playing this game (shame on you for dismissing my sincere first post as fawning!)? The fact that I don't vote when I don't find anything immediately voteworthy?

Not everyone plays the same way. I for one don't follow my gut. I don't go voting or fosing people without having minimally solid arguments to do it. If you take one action that I find dubious but not necessarily scummy, I'll take note of it for myself. If you keep on acting dubiously, I will have reasons to find you scummy and evidence to justify my read.

I've been asking questions to several players (some of which remain unresponded) to collect material, so to speak -- but until I form anything valid and concrete from that material, I keep my votes to myself.

In general, your play thus far looked overly cautious for day 1, like you were trying extra hard to stay on good terms with everyone. If there's any point at all to random voting, it's to try to create pressure or get something moving early in the game, but you placed your random vote in such a way as to make sure it didn't create any pressure, and the you dropped it without explaining why and without voting anyone else, at a time when no one else was voting DGB. You seemed to imply that you thought SSK was suspicious, but would rather vote for nobody then vote for him; you then voted for him eventually, but you seemed hesitant to do so, and joined the wagon fairly late. (In fact, i would say that SSK actually looked less scummy when you voted him then he did when you declined to do so). Your first comment about SSK seemed kind of wishy-washy, trying to both say you understood why he looked suspicious while negating that in the same sentence.

In my experience, scum tend to be more cautious then town; they hesitate about voting, they try to avoid making any "enemies", they are more inclined to be wishy-washy and to try to have it both ways then to make a strong stand on anything, all because their main goal is to never get lynched; and that's been my impression of your play so far.

I see what you mean. So considering you think VitR is scum, are you townreading LML, PJ, and Seol?

I think VitR is somewhat suspicious. If we lynch him he does flip scum, then that would make LML look more town-ish to me. I'm not sure it would say much about Jelly or about Seol.

[Yosarian2]

Incidentally, I am SUPER DUPER AMUSED that people are crying foul at MafiaSSK's "big wagons good" theory, when

at the time he referred to my wagon as "almighty" he jumped AWAY from it, thereby creating a greater spread of votes.

Like, this wagon is legit based on nothing SSK did to actually hurt the game, and just on his theory crafting.

Getting townie vibes from Glork here. His posting about the SSK wagon just feels honest to me.

People who are likely town-

Chamber
Glork
GreenCrayons

DGB and Albert also feel like they're playing within their normal day 1 pro-town meta, leaning town on both of them.

[Yosarian2]

I voted for him because between one post and another, he kept on coming out with some hardly defensable conjectures (I'm mainly referring to his posts 156 and 173). When he said he thought CES's post 137 (and I invite you to read it again) was scum

discreetly

showing agreement with a scum partner, he really just seemed desperate to come up with any connection, any valid suspicion that could shake off the heat he had on him.

Ok. How would you distinguish between "SSK is acting scummy" and "SSK has a very different view on mafia theory and scumhunting tactics then I do" here? I certainly agree that looking for association tells on day 1 between random people seems like a bizzare way to scumhunt, but I'm not really understanding the scum motivation here, or why you think that's more likely to come from scum then town.

[Yosarian2]

The quite tags in that post got messed up somehow; that quote was from Undo, not from me.

[Yosarian2]

I'm lurking.

I know you replaced in late, but that was 2 days ago, and the thread is only 11 page long.

I'm going to give you another 24 hours to read the thread and post something intelligent about it. If you haven't done so by then, I'm going to vote for you.

[Yosarian2]

That's all you're going to respond to? I've already explained multiple times why I felt your move stood out in particular. You're just picking on my wording there.

So, to paraphrase you: You're voting me because I went along with two (wait, one and an FoS) weak wagons with less than 7 pages on D1, and when I find something that truly looks and smells scummy to me, I change my vote to that person?

When I voted StD, I had a grand total of 2 or 3 votes on me (You, DrippingGoofball- who will vote for me regardless of anything whatsoever due to history, and Albert- who also likes voting me as well) - Hardly a wagon. There was no real pressure (sorry!) for me to make a move. I did it because I'm actively scum hunting.

LmL, can you explain what your stance was on Tigras was again? Was it a random vote, or was it an actual suspicion, and if so, why? I'm getting a little confused about what you're trying to say here.

[Yosarian2]

and I'm not trying to back off my VitR or LML reads there. I still feel strongly about those.

Are you implying that you think VitR and LML are scum together? That doesn't feel likely to me at this point.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, going back to the opening page, my first post was a dice roll (myself) and the second post was a re-roll. Tigris was the vote in RVS. I didn't move it to begin with because of Tigris's hop on MafiaSSK for being the third person to vote on a wagon, twice. I kept my vote on Tigris instead of moving it because (a) no one, at the moment, was more suspicious and (b) my vote was there already.

I know this may not make any sense, but my suspicion of Tigris would have not have warranted a vote at the time... but since my vote was already there, I kept it there. It would have warranted a FoS.

You're still not really explaining your thought process here. What was it that Tigris did that, in your mind, was suspicious enough to warrant a FOS?

[Yosarian2]

I'm lurking.

I know you replaced in late, but that was 2 days ago, and the thread is only 11 page long.

I'm going to give you another 24 hours to read the thread and post something intelligent about it. If you haven't done so by then, I'm going to vote for you.

Vote: Natirasha

You have 3 choice; you can play the game, you can replace out, or you can die. It's totally up to you, but one of those three things is going to happen today.

[Yosarian2]

DGB and Albert also feel like they're playing within their normal day 1 pro-town meta, leaning town on both of them.

?
Both of them have metas that take little effort to fake.

Not really. When someone has a meta of making short, declarative statements about who is town or scum without explaining, it can actually make them easier to read; you just have to look at the timing of the statements and figure out why they're making them at those moments and what they're trying to do. The key is to not try to look at the posts in isolation; it's to look at them in context.

[Yosarian2]

Sweet, game is back up.

Let me

unvote

my lurker vote, and re-read quickly.

[Yosarian2]

[*]One of my favorite things to do is to find the village idiot and hunt scum off of the wagon. That used to be a really easy way to find scum. Also, when you have an outspoken "foot in mouth player" (such as myself and DGB), we become mafia fodder as well.

Ugh. This one makes me cringe, especially since I remember LML as being especally hard to lynch most of the time. Is he really using the "I'm a village idiot so scum like to target me" defense here? His posts have felt off to me for much of the game, and this just feels like a scummy defense.

The biggest problem I have with his play so far, though, is that there's very little real scumhunting. Most of his posts seem to be him making excuses for not doing much proper scumhunting yet, which really bothers me, and feels both out of character and scummy. His attempts to have it both ways with Tigras still bothers me, but it wouldn't bother me so much if he was also scumhunting. The only other real scumhunting he did was his STD vote, but that also feels pretty weak to me; he doesn't really explain it, and he doesn't press it, or try to put pressure on STD, or try to get STD to answer any questions or anything.

VitimanR feels less suspicious to me now. Still wouldn't mind an Undo wagon.

For now,

vote:loudmouthlee

[Yosarian2]

Since scum know who the town are, doesn't it make it easier to say XXXXX is town when you're scum?

Not really. The timing is everything.

Several times this game, DGB declared someone town just at at moment where I felt the same way. She's getting a lot of the same gut reads that I'm getting, and that's hard to fake as scum. Also, you can tell a lot about motivation based on timing; I don't see a scum wanting to declare SSK as town on page 5 where she did, for example.

I donno, maybe it's just because I've played with her so many times, but this feels like town-DGB play, specifically.

Also, frankly, declaring this many people town as scum is likely to screw you over in the long run. It's not a good scum strategy to have as many town reads as she does, because you'll probably have to go back on some of them eventually in order to get enough lynches to win.

It's like the old rule for reading Internet Stranger's alignment. People thought he was unreadable because he never made arguents, but I actually felt that that made it a lot *easier* to read him; just look at who he's trying to lycnh, where, and figure out why, and you know his alignment.

Dropping a random vote without explaining why is suspicious? This entire section seems like a stretch.

Maybe it's more a theory dispute then anything, but random votes are there both to generate pressure and because it's theoretically better to lynch someone at random then to lynch no one at all; you don't drop them for no reason, you drop it if you have somewhere better to put your vote, or maybe if you think the person you're voting for looks town.

That was more a minor point, in an overall pattern I've see in Undo's posting of excessive caution, of a reluctance to pick fights with anyone who might fight back, and a certain hesitancy. It's only a moderate scum tell, because I don't know Undo's playstyle, but in general that is behavior I expect to see more often in scum then in town.

[Yosarian2]

Oh, for the record, STD is town. So far, he's picked a fight with Seol, LML, me, and PJ, who are 4 people that are all absurdly good at getting people lynched, all in the first 13 pages of day 1, without any obvious benefit to him from picking all those fights. So either he's righteous town cloaked in the paladin-like armor of righteousness, or he's gone completely suicidal. No way a scum pretending to scumhunt would stick their neck out that far.

He even attacked me for attacking Undo for the same thing he attacked Undo for earlier this game, which is so completely inconsistent it must be a town tell.

[Yosarian2]

What's the difference between STD and VitR?

Quite a few things. I did just mention, though, that I'm less suspicious of VitR then I was several pages ago, and yeah, I suppose it's for a similar reason, although to a lesser extent.

LML's push on the wagon hopping just rubs me the wrong way completely, but I'm starting to think that it is just a playstyle difference with just how committed to it he is. I think if you're looking at wagoning you have to include reasoning otherwise you're only getting half the picture. The UT vote adds up considering, but I'm still not 100% buying it, just seems weak to me.

I don't really get his UT vote, either. It also bugs me that both of LML's suspects (STD and UT) are people who were attacking him.

LML Calling UT's Nat vote "opportunistic" is also a huge stretch. It was extremely unlikely that Nat was going to actually get lynched; it was much more likely that he would either respond to pressure and start posting again (probably by lashing out at me for voting him) or else replace out. In order to actually get lurker lynched around here, you *really* have to try. And, in any case, pressuring Nat at that point seems to obviously be a pro-town act.

[Yosarian2]

[quote="In post 393, Save The Dragons"
Douchy question: do they really?
Better question: have they in this game?

...

Do random votes often/ever lead to a lynch?[/quote]

(shrug) Not very often. About the most you can say for the various strategic/theoretical reasons for random voting is that they're slightly more likely to accomplish something then making a first post with no content at all would be.

I just have a pet peeve with people who think there's a "random vote phase" where you vote people for no reason and then you drop the vote later for no reason. If you're going to random vote, you should have a theory/strategy reason for why you're doing it, it shouldn't just be because it's what the cool kids do. And any reason you may have for random vote, quietly unvoting later for no reason, without voting anyone else, at a time when no one else is voting the person you're voting for, makes it completely pointless.

But, like I said in the beginning, that's all just theory. I mostly just mentioned it because it fit the overall pattern of caution and hesitancy.

I was about to bark at you some more, but I assume that you are suggesting that not voting anyone is scummier than unvoting a random vote.

Basically. When you get rid of your random vote, it should generally be because there's someone else you'd rather vote for, or because you have some other concrete reason.

[Yosarian2]

[quote="In post 393, Save The Dragons"
Douchy question: do they really?
Better question: have they in this game?

...

Do random votes often/ever lead to a lynch?[/quote]

(shrug) Not very often. About the most you can say for the various strategic/theoretical reasons for random voting is that they're slightly more likely to accomplish something then making a first post with no content at all would be.

I just have a pet peeve with people who think there's a "random vote phase" where you vote people for no reason and then you drop the vote later for no reason. If you're going to random vote, you should have a theory/strategy reason for why you're doing it, it shouldn't just be because it's what the cool kids do. And any reason you may have for random vote, quietly unvoting later for no reason, without voting anyone else, at a time when no one else is voting the person you're voting for, makes it completely pointless.

But, like I said in the beginning, that's all just theory. I mostly just mentioned it because it fit the overall pattern of caution and hesitancy.

I was about to bark at you some more, but I assume that you are suggesting that not voting anyone is scummier than unvoting a random vote.

Basically. When you get rid of your random vote, it should generally be because there's someone else you'd rather vote for, or because you have some other concrete reason.

[Yosarian2]

Weird double post; MS might still be being strange.

Anyway:

Rationale:
[*]UT has been on 3 of the major bandwagons, the most out of any player (tied with StD)
[*]UT was also on the Nat wagon which looked incredibly opportunistic at the time.

@Yos: did you just skim or completely miss this post and the subsequent discussion?

Eh. Like I said, your claim that Nat was an "opportunistic wagon" doesn't make much sense to me; there was never much chance of Nat being lynched. And your other argument looks pretty weak; UT just comes off as the "aggressive" playstyle, aggressively pushing wagons to get reactions and to speed up the game.

He voted Tigras for, as he called it, "shameless bandwagoning" (he even said "choo choo" as he did it) but dropped the vote a few posts later because he thought Tigras was looking town. Then he voted you, at a point when you were, in fact, starting to look pretty scummy. Then he joined my Nat lurker pressure wagon, in what I think is a pro-town move.

None of that looks scummy to me.

[Yosarian2]

Oh, for the record, STD is town. So far, he's picked a fight with Seol, LML, me, and PJ, who are 4 people that are all absurdly good at getting people lynched, all in the first 13 pages of day 1, without any obvious benefit to him from picking all those fights. So either he's righteous town cloaked in the paladin-like armor of righteousness, or he's gone completely suicidal. No way a scum pretending to scumhunt would stick their neck out that far.

He even attacked me for attacking Undo for the same thing he attacked Undo for earlier this game, which is so completely inconsistent it must be a town tell.

Oh! That's cool, Yos! Find an inconsistency and call it protown? That's the weirdest thing you may have ever said.

Consistency is a scum tell.

[Yosarian2]

Quite a few things. I did just mention, though, that I'm less suspicious of VitR then I was several pages ago, and yeah, I suppose it's for a similar reason, although to a lesser extent.

You did? I missed it, can you point me back to the post or elaborate on why he's no longer as scummy to you.

I mentioned it in this post here:

[*]One of my favorite things to do is to find the village idiot and hunt scum off of the wagon. That used to be a really easy way to find scum. Also, when you have an outspoken "foot in mouth player" (such as myself and DGB), we become mafia fodder as well.

Ugh. This one makes me cringe, especially since I remember LML as being especally hard to lynch most of the time. Is he really using the "I'm a village idiot so scum like to target me" defense here? His posts have felt off to me for much of the game, and this just feels like a scummy defense.

The biggest problem I have with his play so far, though, is that there's very little real scumhunting. Most of his posts seem to be him making excuses for not doing much proper scumhunting yet, which really bothers me, and feels both out of character and scummy. His attempts to have it both ways with Tigras still bothers me, but it wouldn't bother me so much if he was also scumhunting. The only other real scumhunting he did was his STD vote, but that also feels pretty weak to me; he doesn't really explain it, and he doesn't press it, or try to put pressure on STD, or try to get STD to answer any questions or anything.

VitimanR feels less suspicious to me now. Still wouldn't mind an Undo wagon.

For now,

vote:loudmouthlee

VitimanR has been falling in my suspicion for a while. I originally voted him because I didn't like his attack on LML (the reasoning didn't make much sense to me at the time), but as the game has been going on, VitiminR has been looking steadily better, while LML has been looking worse and worse. Now, I'm just thinking that LML's scumhunting has just been off all game, and perhaps VitiminR just spotted that before I did (and perhaps didn't articulate it very well).

[Yosarian2]

There is always a trail of bread crumbs explaining all of their changes of thought. This trail of thought breadcrumbs should exist for townies, but townies don't always state everyone of their thoughts, it wont be explicit. This is what I think you and yos meant.

That's part of it. Also, townies who are going back and re-reading the game multiple times, trying to look for scum in different ways, will usually end up contradicting themselves one way or the other, because they're trying different theories on for size and are looking at the game in different mindsets using different (and sometimes contradictory) types of scum-hunting theories. Scum, on the other hand, tend to be much more aware of all the positions they've taken all game, and tend to work to avoid any internal contradictions they might be called out on.

[Yosarian2]

5.)

Yosarian2, why do you think LoudmouthLee and VitaminR are unlikely bedfellows?

VitR's attack on LML doesn't look like distancing to me; if anything, he basically started the LML bandwagon, and pushed it aggressively even as it grew.

I guess it's possible that VitR decided that he would literally start off the game first thing by basically bussing one of his scumbuddies right at the start of day 1 just to look extra townie, but I consider that fairly unlikely. If LML flips scum, then VitR is likely to be town.

[Yosarian2]

c) Here's a really great question for you, PJ (and Yos, and EVERYONE ELSE ON THE POLICY KICK), why Nat, and not any of the other players that hadn't moved their votes? Because Nat was being adversarial. Was stirring the pot. Was angering people.

No, it's because Nat had contributed absolutely nothing, and was strongly implying that he was going to continue to contribute nothing.

I don't care about him rolling into the game and asking someone else who to vote for; provocative move, but not necessarally scummy. But then him never even reading the thread itself, and even just saying he was "lurking" was just too anti-town to let stand.

d) Why not let everyone else do that? You guys can go after the lurker tells (I don't believe in them) and I look to actively scum hunt.

I wish you would.

I really am not a fan of your voting analysis; that might be fine for a starting point, but I would expect some follow-up scumhunting on your part, and I haven't seen it.

So, you did a voting analysis, and UT jumped out at you. Fine. After that, did you go back and read his posts in ISO? What did you think about his posts and about what he was actually saying? Do you have any questions for him? Do you have any comments about his playstyle, or arguments with anything he's said, or anything? Nothing in your posts gives me any indication that you did. I get a similar vibe from your STD vote, too; you voted him, fine, but then you just...stopped. You didn't really say anything more about him, or question him, or attack any of his posts, or try to put pressure on him, or anything.

I just get the disturbing feeling that you did a vote analysis, used it as a reason to park your vote on UT, and then just stopped thinking about it instead of continuing to scumhunt and to try to figure out your suspect's alignment after that point. It feels more like a scum looking for an excuse to vote then a town who really wants to figure out someone's alignment. And I get that vibe from both of your "serious" votes. (Assuming that the Tigras vote wasn't serious; the ambiguity around that still bugs me as well).

[Yosarian2]

Yos's switch from VitR to LML is particularly cringe-worthy and smells like scum trying to ride the tides to an easy lynch.

Vote: Yosarian2

...

Have you read LML's posts this game, Glork?

I mean, like, ANY of them?

[Yosarian2]

Hey Yos, since you're here, what motivation do you see for scum-LML parking his vote on UT? Saying "this guy's votes are bad" and waiting for a response/reaction (which hasn't even come, I might note) seems pretty okay to me. Why is this such an issue for you?

It's part of the same pattern. Like I said in my initial vote, both that vote and the STD vote feels equally bad; like he's just looking for an excuse to look like he's scumhunting, but isn't really interested in finding out anyone's alignment. Overall, I get the feeling he's much more interested in trying to explain and defend himself then in trying to find scum.

Tell me if I'm crazy, I haven't played in a while, but nothing in his posting this game feels like the town-LML posting I'm used to. It all just feels off.

[Yosarian2]

Yos is playing games which I don't particularly like. I remember him as a straight forward chap as town.

Uh. What "games" am I playing? I thought I was being completely straightforward.

[Yosarian2]

In that you were asking VitR to guess the reason why you were voting him. My memory of you would be to be fairly "to the point" with your suspicions.

So you're suspicious of me because I was stirring shit up and trying to create pressure and get reactions during a time when most of the rest of the town was still just random voting? That seems like a strange reaction on your part, especially for you to bring up now. Isn't trying to get reactions like what I was trying to do with vitR obviously helpful to the town at that stage of the game?

I'm equally confused by people like Glork for apparently expecting me to stick with a page 5 suspicion for the rest of the game, and claims to find it opportunistic that I switched to a better suspect when I had more information. Just weird play, I don't get it.

[Yosarian2]

Tell me if I'm crazy, I haven't played in a while, but nothing in his posting this game feels like the town-LML posting I'm used to. It all just feels off.

I think you're crazy, but what do you expect LML's town posting style to be like?

More analytical, more information-gathering, more debating people he finds suspicious. This game, either he's not scumhunting other then a few bloodless voting analysis posts, or else he's keeping his cards very close to his chest, and neither is what I would expect of him.

I looked back at old games of his to see if I was remembering correctly, and while he hasn't played a (non-ongoing, non-newbie) game in quite a while, it does look like my memory is correct. I believe this is his most recent, completed, non-newbie game.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

He was town, and I'm getting a totally different vibe this game. Of course, that was 4 years ago, so who knows, but his play here doesn't feel right.

[Yosarian2]

First UT, then STD, now PJ.

LML's votes all seem really OMGUSy to me. The timing of the PJ vote seems especially dubious.

[Yosarian2]

To be frank, if LML-scum were to make this kind of attack and really stick to his convictions when questioned about it, I'd expect UT to be scum. Earlier in the game, UT was suspicious of LML among others, but didn't really pursue the optino very heavily, which could be a possible distancing link. Coming out of the break, LML tried to show that he was putting forth the effort to vote for UT, and he defended his vote when people questioned his argument's validity. I could potentially see that coming from LML trying to put some distance between himself and a scumbuddy, so that if one of them eventually died, it would lower suspicion on the other one.

My impression of LML's posting isn't that he "really stuck to his convictions". After all, he hasn't really done any follow up, or made any additional points against UT, or really tried to convince anyone else to vote him. It looks more to me like he made a vote based bad reasoning to create the illusion of scumhunting, and then spent a lot of time defending his actions after he was attacked for them.

Compare and contrast his UT vote with his PJ case. I think LML is actually trying to lynch PJ. Note that PJ actually has a bandwagon against him, and is also probably a more significant threat to LML at the moment. I don't think LML was actually trying to lynch UT; I don't think he really cared one way or the other, he just wanted to look like he was doing something. The style of attack is quite different.

(It's also possible his UT vote was distancing, sure; I don't disagree with that. I don't think LML flipping scum here would tell us much about UT's alignment one way or the other.)

[Yosarian2]

2.)

MafiaSSK, where are you?
]

Hi. I'm here. Interest me.

...

I don't know if you noticed, but this town is clearly not going to tolerate lurkers. We already made that point once, with Nat. Contribute something.

[Yosarian2]

Enjoy my second serving of loose notes. They mainly concern pp. 15-20, because I’m still catching up on the last couple of pages.

De Yosarian

Consistency is a scum tell.

I really can’t let this pass without making a comment. I hope you were being hyperbolic for rhetorical purposes, because otherwise that is a very dangerous aphorism. I mean, you could say "Consistency is not a town tell" or "Trying too hard to be consistent (vide MafiaSSK...) is a scum tell". But saying "consistency is a scum tell" is a gross simplification and also potentially misleading. Inconsistency (that is, the lack of coherence in one's reasoning and reaction patterns) is the primal indicator of a latent dishonesty. If your post history shows signs of core changes in your frame of thought, you undoubtedly are more likely to be scum.

In my experience, at least for competent scum, scum tend to be very good at keeping their posts and their votes consistent, while town tend to be much more distractable and all over the place, because town are actually trying to hunt scum with incredibly limited information (so any little thing may send them off in a radically different direction), while scum are just pretending to do so, so they're less likely to change their minds.


When I first started saying that consistency is a scum tell, several years ago, it was honestly mostly for shock/reaction value. As time has gone on, though, I've found it to be a surprisingly effective tell in it's own right.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, I'm not interested in lynching PJ today, and the bookitty wagon feels kind of weak to me. What else do we have on the menu?

LML still looks like the best choice to me, but even though he hasn't done anything since his superscummy vote on PJ, that wagon has sadly faded away.

[Yosarian2]

>What's your current opinion of PJ? Are you not interested in lynching him today because he's PJ or because he's not significantly scummy to you?

His play seems reasonably pro-town so far to me; it all looks like standard PJ-style analysis, mostly on reasonable targets with solid reasoning. Not going to claim to have a strong read on him at this point, but nothing he's done so far feels scummy to me.

>Also, what do you think of Tigris/Kublai Khan?

Tigris's early play was odd, but that may be more playstyle then anything else. Don't really have a read on that slot right now; hopefully Kiblai Khan will post more content soon.

[Yosarian2]

Er, those were supposed to be quotes, from MBL. Too much time on Reddit, heh.

[Yosarian2]

Meanwhile, LML is going after StD and dropping his … I don’t know why he was voting Tigris if not just laziness from RVS. I don’t think he ever indicated he thought she was scum up til this point in the game.

For the record, LML indicated a couple of times that he was actually suspicious of Tigris

Tigris's 3rd vote "vote" seems to play on the old timer's emotions... it's a "tell" that we all know and have looked at before. Almost like trying to garner trust with the town. I like my vote where it is right now, and...

...I'm not a fan of any of the MafiaSSK votes on this page. Feels like a bunch of strong players going for an easy target. I especially don't like LML's #62, which nicely sets up a potential switch to the MafiaSSK wagon while maintaining a push on Tigris. Seems like something scum might do to make sure that two wagons keep momentum.

Am I not allowed to think two people seem scummy? If so, then I've been playing this game wrong for years.

Later, he implied that his vote on Tigras was merely a RVS vote:

I random voted Tigris via dice roll, and changed my vote to StD.

When I questioned him about it, he basically tried to have it both ways.

I know this may not make any sense, but my suspicion of Tigris would have not have warranted a vote at the time... but since my vote was already there, I kept it there. It would have warranted a FoS.

the whole exchange...made me uncomfortable. If he actually thought Tigris's initial posting was scummy, even if it was only slightly so, then it's weird for him to make basically excuses for keep his vote on Tigris like that. Is there really some line on page 5 where "X is scummy enough for a FOS, but you have to do Y to be scummy enough for a vote?

Honestly, if someone wasn't voting for anyone, and then FOS'd someone without voting, that early in the game, I would find that suspicious, but it sounds like that's exactally what he's claiming he would have done if not for the random dice roll. It's just weird.

[Yosarian2]

What interests me now, is you decided to make a thing out of it...

At this point, I'm mostly trying to get you to explain what you're thinking because I'm trying to get a read on you here.

[Yosarian2]

the whole exchange...made me uncomfortable. If he actually thought Tigris's initial posting was scummy, even if it was only slightly so, then it's weird for him to make basically excuses for keep his vote on Tigris like that. Is there really some line on page 5 where "X is scummy enough for a FOS, but you have to do Y to be scummy enough for a vote?

Isn't this counter to your 'consistency is scummy' theory?

Well, what do you expect from me; consistency?

Seriously, I wouldn't care if he random vote Tigris, and I wouldn't care if he voted Tigris because he thought Tigris was scummy. I also wouldn't care if he changed his mind. The way he's trying to have it both ways, though, feels scummy; it feels like he knew his Tigris vote was bad and was trying to distance himself from it, or else like he's trying to do a lot of tapdancing to make it look like his scumhunting was more honest then it actually was. It's not the contradiction that's the problem so much as what looks like an attempt to dishonestly smoothtalk it under the rug.

Tell me, does his explanation there make much sense to you?

[Yosarian2]

I still think that both the Bookitty wagon and the PJ wagon look very weak. I'd be surprised if either one of them flipped scum.

[Yosarian2]

@Yosarian, my question still stands: do you think VitR’s play is as weird as Glork’s (refer to my post 517)?

Meh. VitR's play doesn't look especially weird.

[Yosarian2]

I'm still fine lynching BooKitty -- I agree with her that she's a good information lynch, and that we need to get the game moving. If we lose a VT, we lose a VT.

What information do you think we get if we lynch BooKitty?

Let's say, hypothetically speaking, we lynch her and she flips VT (which I think we both agree is the most likely outcome at this point). In that case, who would you want to lynch tomorrow based on the BooKitty wagon?

[Yosarian2]

Yos: Lynching anyone at this point will be pretty informative -- BooKitty might even be slightly higher than usual given her generous contributions to the discussion so far, and Seol's (to me uncharacteristic) behavior this game.

That's pretty vague. How would it be "pretty informative"? If BooKitty flips town, then who on her wagon would you say looks scummy to you?

[Yosarian2]

Also, a question to whoever: have any of the major wagons in this game felt like they experienced more or less resistance than they should have at the time, given the strength of the case and the strength of the cases on competing wagons? I have my thoughts, will be glad to share but don't want to taint the pool before anyone else has a chance to think about/answer this.

Considering how many people have expressed suspicion of him, and how strong the case against him is, it's been remarkably difficult to keep any momentum going on the LML wagon.

Looking back on the thread, it's also a little surprising by how strongly people were defending mafiaSSK, relative to the quality of his posting.

[Yosarian2]

I think LML's odds of being scum are over 50%.

Bookitty's are probably around 10%-15%. Usually I'm in favor of lynching claimed VT's, but right now I think she's significantly less likely to be scum then random.

Anyway, mathcam, if you want to make a case on her being scummy (suspicious, more likely scum then random, or whatever), I'd like to hear it. If you think her lynch would be "especially informative", then I'd like to hear what specific information you expect to get from it; in my experience, town usually gets very little information from lynching a VT on day 1, and I don't see this example as being anything special in that regards. If you want to make both arguments, that's fine as well, but right now you haven't really made either case in a convincing way.

[Yosarian2]

(That was in response to Mathcam's #633, which was the last post when I made that post)

[Yosarian2]

Looking back on the thread, it's also a little surprising by how strongly people were defending mafiaSSK, relative to the quality of his posting.

I think this is related to the types of claims that no scum in his right mind would want attract the kind of attention that SSK did by repeatedly defending ill-advised theories. Do you think there's any significance to the fact that Seol disagreed with this stance? There was one post where he directly decided to weigh between whether SSK was scummy or wrong, and came down on the side of scummy. Realizing of course the conflict of interest of reading about my past self, I think this was odd, and my first inching of Seol in the scumminess direction.

I don't have a strong read on SSK in either direction; I suspect he posts in a fashion much like that as either alignment.

That being said, I thought the strong defenses several people were making of him were kind of strange; he certainly didn't do anything that seemed especially townish, and the degree to which people were defending him from a quite early stage based on no obvious town tells seemed very odd. I commented on it at the time, actually; if you remember, that was one of the reasons for my early-game VitimanR vote. He wasn't the only one to do it, though.

[Yosarian2]

chamber - this is weak for me. I go back and forth on it; I haven't played with chamber that I remember and I can't get any handle on his playstyle. Some things looked really scummy to me but I can't actually recall them now (I'm sure it's in my PBPA, though, for later.)

This is a pretty big scumtell for me, but at this point I'm so wrapped in confirmation bias, can someone else confirm that they see it?

My first impression, reading that, was "townie trying to get their last words down in writing before they get lynched, without enough time to do a re-reading first". Why, what did you see?

[Yosarian2]

Also, a question to whoever: have any of the major wagons in this game felt like they experienced more or less resistance than they should have at the time, given the strength of the case and the strength of the cases on competing wagons? I have my thoughts, will be glad to share but don't want to taint the pool before anyone else has a chance to think about/answer this.

Considering how many people have expressed suspicion of him, and how strong the case against him is, it's been remarkably difficult to keep any momentum going on the LML wagon.

Looking back on the thread, it's also a little surprising by how strongly people were defending mafiaSSK, relative to the quality of his posting.

I don't like this post. The LML wagon hasn't had momentum because its bad, not because of some sinister scum plot, sorry. (There are, presumably, a lot of town left in a game like this. If a wagon isn't getting off the ground, then you're not just failing to convince scum, you're also failing to convince the townies. That's basically a truism.

I'm not sure what part of my post you're disagreeing with. A huge number of people have expressed suspicion on LML so far this game, and yet it's been remarkably hard to keep a wagon going on him despite that.

People who have expressed suspicion of LML:

VitR
Albert
Green Crayons
Dripping Goofball (never really expressed, but kept her vote on the LML wagon for a long time)
Untrod Tripod
Save the Dragons
Yosarian2
Sotty7
MBL (kind of)
PJ
BooKitty

Granted, it looks like both Albert and DGB have changed their minds since then, but that's a hell of a lot of suspicion. Nearly half the people in the game have actively expressed suspicion on him by this point.

This kind of "oh x is hard to lynch" argument only makes sense to me in the context of a town that is flooded with aligned scum - a 3/7 or 2/5 type scenario.

Eh. The thing is, if your buddy is being attacked, you're likely to express suspicion of him, maybe vote him for a bit, and then get off of him. Distancing without actually increasing odds of being lynched. Anyway, with 4 or 5 scum in a 22 person game, that's more then enough to subtly tilt the wagon towards town people.

After all, statistically speaking, scum are lynched significantly less often then random on day 1. There's a reason for that.

[Yosarian2]

((As a sidenote, mafia is a hard game and I don't think I would ever assign a >50% chance of being scum to anyone, like, ever. Beyond cop investigations or role information or whatnot.))

This is a side note, but it's not really that hard to get to 50%. If 25% of the people in a game are scum, and then person X does something that you think scum are about twice as likely to do as town (say, a scum might do it 40% of his games while a town might do it 20% of his games), then that gives you a Bayesian possibility of about 50% that that person who did the scum tell is actually scum. (If 20% of the people in the game are scum, as may be more likely here, then need a slightly stronger tell to get up to 50%, but the idea is the same).

The difficulty is then translating that into a correct lynch in a case where a quarter of the people in the game are actively trying to sabotage the town's chances.

[Yosarian2]

do not lynch bookitty

This is still correct.

[Yosarian2]

It may not be good scum strategy to declare too many people town, but DGB has never conformed to to what is generally accepted as "good strategy" so your assessment of her play feels majorly off.

This is town DGB play. I have a pretty high degree of confidence in that.

Do you disagree, or are you just nitpicking?

[Yosarian2]

Wrong. And you're also completely wrong about CES.

Also:

Vote:LML

One of the two of you or both are scum.

Mmm. Looking at his posts, CES is looking more then a little dodgy this game. All of his suspicions are just weird, and other then his focus on Seol and Bookitty, have seemed basically half-assed.

Assuming Bookitty flips town, then yeah, CES is likely scum.

[Yosarian2]

Seriously, I wouldn't care if he random vote Tigris, and I wouldn't care if he voted Tigris because he thought Tigris was scummy. I also wouldn't care if he changed his mind. The way he's trying to have it both ways, though, feels scummy; it feels like he knew his Tigris vote was bad and was trying to distance himself from it, or else like he's trying to do a lot of tapdancing to make it look like his scumhunting was more honest then it actually was.

Oh I see what you're getting at now, Sotty. It's a remarkably similar argument to the one I made against MafiaSSK. I disagree with Yos' conclusions here mainly because I think the quote from LML's #302 is a sufficiently reasonable explanation for what was going on. I'd be interested in hearing Yos' thoughts on MafiaSSK in light of this post though.

Eh. I don't think SSK was trying to have it both ways on Tigris; his initial vote felt a little jokey, but all of the rest of his posts on the subject were just him trying to explain why he was suspicious of Tigris. His reasoning was pretty bad, but I'm not sure if that's a scum tell from SSK.

I'm kind of netural on the slot at the moment. I guess I expected mathcam to roll in and start giving off all kinds of pro-town vibes, and he somehow hasn't, really. Not sold on that slot being scum, but I guess we could do worse if it came to a deadline lynch.

There's a persistent chorus of "do not lynch Bookitty" that contains Glork, Yos, ABR, GreenCrayons, DGB and maybe others. There are at least 2 scum in that list regardless of BooKitty's flip.

I've been saying that Bookitty was a bad lynch since even before the whole VT claim thing that other people are talking about. It just feels like if we lynch her, she'll probably flip town.

[Yosarian2]

ABR should be vigged.

I don't see that at all. It feels like at every point of the day today, ABR has avoided taking the "easy road" on basically every wagon, has been willing to change his mind on new evidence, has been passionate at the right moments, and basically looks pretty obv town overall.

[Yosarian2]

Well, as for which parts I disagree with, uh, I kinda wrote that in my post, so yeah.

...

In your post, you tried to claim that the reason LML wasn't being lynched was because not enough people suspect him (the way you put it was to claim that the LML wagon "wasn't convincing the townies".) I think I clearly demonstrated that that clearly is not the case, since 11 our of the 22 people in this game have expressed suspicion on LML, more then on any other person in the game I believe.

Are you just standing by your original statement, even after I proved it factually incorrect? Or do you want to explain what you mean a little more here?

And as for the latter, stats? Or is that just a random assertion?

Yeah, there were a bunch of people who gathered stats on large numbers of games, and all of them showed that towns lynched right less often then random on day 1, almost certanly because of scum votes throwing things off. The posts on that were in the MD forum...somewhere. At some point. Of course, I haven't played mafia in more then a year, so maybe that's not true anymore, but it was last time I knew.

(My own rather cynical viewpoint and part of the reason I stopped actively playing is actually that scumhunting in forum games is largely random anyway).

No; in the long run, townies tend to vote correctly more often then random. Of course day 1 is usually a bit random.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, deadline is tommorow. Not sure exactally what time; did Patrick say? In any case, everyone needs to put their vote on someone who might actually get lynched today, and they have to do it right now.

Kublai Kahn, vote for someone. And everyone who's got their vote on some random person no one else is backing (I'm looking at you, MBL and Dripping Goofball) get to lynching someone. You can try to make your case again tomorrow.

If we no-lynch on day 1 due to sheer lack of ability to get a wagon together, we're probably going to lose.

[Yosarian2]

I've been saying that Bookitty was a bad lynch since even before the whole VT claim thing that other people are talking about. It just feels like if we lynch her, she'll probably flip town.

Yeah, you've called the wagon "kind of weak" and called here recent "last words" type posts town. Frankly, I don't see how that translates into you resisting a deadline VT lynch.

I didn't say that; the BooKitty lynch is clearly a pretty bad lynch, but if it's 5 minutes to deadline and she's at lynch -1, I'd hammer rather then see a no-lynch, especially with the VT claim.

Considering how many people have said they're totally opposed to it, though, it's looking pretty unlikely to happen today. LML wagon looks much more likely to go all the way to a majority.

Agreed. It feels like a strategy to me. It's not like he's over-exerting himself by being a contrarian given his playstyle.

Eh. There's no reason he couldn't use that exact same playstyle to aggressively go after someone who's an easy lynch, to score an easy mislynch, if he were scum. I've seen him do it.

[Yosarian2]

Ah, found it, here it is.

Current status: Day 1, deadline: Wednesday 11th June, 10pm GMT.

So, we have until I think that's 5 PM Eastern Standard Time, tommorow. That's only about 22 hours.

Everyone wagon up, now.

[Yosarian2]

VOTE UNTROD TRIPOD

OLDY MAFIA'S ROB FORD

DGB, you're the only one who wants to lynch UT, and the deadline is in 20 hours. It's not going to happen today. Vote for someone else.

[Yosarian2]

Kublai Khan: Vote for someone, now. If we no-lynch today and you end the day without voting for anyone, we're lynching you tomorrow.

MBL: Assuming we're not going to lynch Kublai Khan today, who's your second choice?

[Yosarian2]

I'm not going to lynch LML

A no lynch is preferable?

YES

No, of course it's not. If we can't lynch on day 1, tomorrow we'll be back in the exact same spot, with no useful information and 1 less pro-town player. We need to lynch today, or else we might as well just give up an concceed now, because it's not going to get any easier from here.

45 minutes until deadline. Someone hammer, right now. No more games.

[Yosarian2]

I think a

Vote: petroleumjelly

is in order. He had a range of weird interactions with LML Day 1, including his late jump on the LML wagon after never talking about him and LML's strange OMGUS-y response (which none of his other attackers triggered).

This is a bad vote. I am totally convinced PJ is obvtown now. The way that LML went after PJ seemed genuine, more real then his other attacks; LML he was really trying to lynch PJ, both because PJ was trying to lynch LML and because PJ looked lynchable. One of the big scumtells I had on LML was the difference between the PJ vote, who he seemed like he was really trying to lynch, and his other wagons, which looked like he didn't really care.

[Yosarian2]

I am totally confident PJ is town.

CTD also got a ton of townie points for that hammer. The hammer was an extremely pro-town move. All he had to do was not post for another hour or so, and there might have been a no-lynch instead of a scum lynch.

Kublai Kahn (Tigris's replacement) also looks more town, because of that weirdness I pointed out with LML's random vote on Tigras, followed by LML claiming Tigris actaully looked scummy, followed by LML saying it was just a random vote, followed by him trying to have it both ways. I don't think LML would have acted in that weird way if Tigris was a scumbuddy.

Save the Dragons is also still very much town.

DGB looks a little worse now, with her absurd "I'd rather lynch no one then LML" stuff at the end of the day; when would you ever rather no-lynch then lynch on day 1? This would be a bigger scumtell if it wasn't so blatent, but it's still pretty disturbing.

InHim also looks a little worse.



My biggest suspects right now, though, are Mathcam, undo, and Cogito Ergo Sum. CES is probably the worst. The laser-like focus on BooKitty looked terrible, the scumlist he listed here was just godaweful

Scum team: Seol/ABR/Green Crayons/DrippingGoofball/Porochaz

He did basically no real scumhunting, and covered for it by pounding on the BooKitty drum all day. Even more damning, he almost totally ignored LML all day, which is just bizzare considering the incredible amount of attention LML had basically all day.

Vote:Cogito Ergo Sum

Like I said, I also wouldn't mind an undo lynch; note that these are the only two posts Undo had from June 7th through June 11th:

Just stopping by to express my disappointment with Bookitty's wagon losing steam.

@Porochaz: thanks man.

My vote stays where it is.

And mathcam just looks dodgy. CES, though, is probably the most likely to be scum here today.

[Yosarian2]

Well, found a bit of extra time.

I think a

Vote: petroleumjelly

is in order. He had a range of weird interactions with LML Day 1, including his late jump on the LML wagon after never talking about him and LML's strange OMGUS-y response (which none of his other attackers triggered).

This is a bad vote. I am totally convinced PJ is obvtown now. The way that LML went after PJ seemed genuine, more real then his other attacks; LML he was really trying to lynch PJ, both because PJ was trying to lynch LML and because PJ looked lynchable. One of the big scumtells I had on LML was the difference between the PJ vote, who he seemed like he was really trying to lynch, and his other wagons, which looked like he didn't really care.

See, I totally agree that LML's pursuit of pj felt different (that's what that second point refers to), but I came to different conclusions. I remember LML as someone who can bus hard as scum and my first thought was that he might have doing his best on his pj attack in order to create distance between them. Your explanation is possible too (I didn't think of it, tbh), I suppose, but then why not just go after BooKitty? It didn't seem like he was concerned with lynchability at all with any of his other attacks.

Eh. His attack on PJ just looked like a scum trying to get rid of a threat, and PJ at the time was a huge threat to LML. I commented at the time that his PJ vote looked very OMGUSish; I found the timing extremely suspicious, because LML turned on PJ right after PJ voted for LML.

Most of LML's voting patterns seemed to just be him doing fake scumhunting to try to look like he was doing something, none of it looked like he was really trying, but in PJ's case, I got the impression that LML really wanted him dead.

If you look at his voting pattern, most of LML's votes look like OMGUS votes, attacking people who were attacking him (STD, UT, PJ). PJ was the most serious threat, and the only one that had a real wagon on him, so he tried a lot harder on that one. He probably didn't go after BooKitty because BooKitty wasn't going after him for most of the day; if he had made a case on BooKitty, she probably would have turned on him, which would have lowered his odds of survival.

Also, the best case scenario for the scum team would have been a no-lynch on day 1, which almost happened, so he was probably perfectly happy trying to push a minor third-tier wagon at the end of the day to lower the odds of a lynch happening at all.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos2, I mostly ignored LmL because he seemed mildly suspicious but not on the level of Seol/Bookitty. I didn't want to push the wagon but also not really dissuade it either, so I didn't have much reason to comment on the wagon.

So, why didn't you at least say that? Or at least say what you found mildly suspicious about him, or ask him a question, or mention that you found some post of his townie, or even say that you found him null?

Pretty sure my scum list was reasonable at the time too.

Eh. Everyone on your scum list but Seol was, at the time that post was made (post #230) on my pro-town list. That just seemed bizzare to me.

Now, maybe that wouldn't bother me so much, but I have to try to figure out where that came from because it's basically the only attempt you made on day 1 at scumhunting; everything else looks like either "attacking bookitty" or "trying to get other people to lynch bookitty".

Your whole debate with Glork was pretty dodgy as well, with posts to try and get people to lynch bookitty without actually saying anything useful like this one:

She's clearly not given up if she's scum. She's not going quietly into the noose; she's very clearly trying something.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos

Are you on the fence with CES, or do you think he's scum?

(shrug) I'm not as confident yet as I was about LML by the end of the day yesterday, if that's what you're asking. Let's say that I think CES's behavior makes him significantly more likely to be scum with LML then random, but I'd still like to hear more from him.

[Yosarian2]

KK wagon was bullshit in my opinion. I'm suspicious of anyone on it. I'm beating a dead horse though. If you disagree, I don't think I'm going to be able to say anything else to convince you.

I'm pretty sure it never grew past four. If you think there was a legit attempt by scum to save LML at the probable risk of being exposed over the course of a large normal game made up entirely of veteran (and competent) players, you need to reconsider. Nobody here was going to go completely out of their way to save their scumbuddy LML on Day One at that point, because it makes zero sense as a long-term strategy.

If the town had no-lynched on day 1, like we almost did, then what would have happened? We would have moved into day 2 with the same group of people wanting to lynch LML, the same group of people wanting to lynch Bookitty, the same group of people wanting to lynch KK, and no new information. And one less pro-town vote, increasing the size of the scum voting block, making it even less likely for us to vote scum. More, it would have been very demoralizing for the town; having the exact same debate that we had on day 1 all over again, for weeks. That kind of thing can break even the best towns, can turn good players into lurkers or into irrational zealots.

[Yosarian2]

How did you get roleblocker from hickory dickory dock?

What's that? Where did he say that?

Wasn't there something about a mouse and a clock? I thought messing with the clock movement.

He was referencing the nursery rhyme

"Hickory, dickory, dock,
The mouse ran up the clock.
The clock struck one,
The mouse ran down,
Hickory, dickory, dock."

I thought it was a pretty obvious attempt to imply he was the doc, while not actually claiming doc. It was also an obvious scum desperation tactic; a real doctor would either claim or not, but wouldn't play games like that.

[Yosarian2]

petroleumjelly, Save the Dragons, Porochaz, Kublai Khan, Porochaz

Two of these players bus'ed LML yesterday, and are currently going after me, the easy lynch-du-jour.

This obsession with trying to figure out "who bussed LML" seems totally backwards. It's possible a scum or two bussed him, or it's possible none did. Either way, since town had a cop in this game, we're probably looking at 4-5 scum in a 22 player game, and odds are there were more scum off the LML wagon then on it.

Being on the LML wagon doesn't clear anyone, but I'm not reading anything into LML comment about being "bussed" either. That could just as easily be a scum going down in flames trying to mislead the town as anything else.

[Yosarian2]

@Mathcam

: Could you possibly make cases in the normal way, rather than using some arbitrary method that I suspect only makes sense to you? Right now, it looks like you're moving people around randomly with +1s and -1s but you don't connect those to any specific events. If you're awarding me a shiny gold star, I want to know what I'm getting it for. I'm not just talking about the long series of numbers recently posted; I'm talking about the lack of reason given for most of your reads so far.

Right now it looks like your figures can mean just about anything you want them to. Saying your figures are based on gut is the opposite of logic and reason. Just using numbers doesn't make it logical. I could give ABR a +1 because I like his avatar, or DGB a -1 because she didn't bring me cookies. If you don't put any reasons down (and I really don't see specific reasons in your posting) then it looks like you're keeping all your options open.

Can you give more detailed reads or support for your up-and-down votes, please?

And you don't think this is a scum post glork?

She's calling mathcam out right after he called her townish in his points system. That doesn't really make sense if she's scum trying to stay alive.

[Yosarian2]

I think Glork basically covered this, but this is exactly why posting my +1/-1 list was a bad idea. In fact, I think a

FOS: PJ

is merited for this.

Did you really just FOS PJ for...asking you a reasonable question about your reads and for asking you to share your notes on other players scummyness?

That seems like an eminently reasonable thing for someone to ask.

[Yosarian2]

No, for insisting on the +1/-1 list. I'm happy to answer any questions I am capable of about my opinions using normal modes of communication. My notes are not always written in a fashion that is appropriate for public consumption, but PJ explicitly requested to see it in that form because he didn't think it existed.

I still think that's an entirely reasonable request from someone who is trying to figure out your alignment.

[Yosarian2]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, then. We're

all

trying to figure out everyone's alignment. I think of your personal notes as available to me only to the extent that you use them to make and communicate your suspicions. How you collect, format, and process your notes seems to me to be entirely your business.

(shrug) Sure. Then refuse to share them.

But asking to see someone's notes, especially after they've talked about them, seems like a plausible way to figure out their alignment. They might say yes or they might say no, but you can certainly ask, right? I'm just trying to figure out why you think a pro-town person trying to figure out your alignment wouldn't *want* to see that.

And by the way, it's not true that we're all trying to figure out everyone's alignment. Pro-town people are, and scum aren't.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos:

(1) If CES is off the table, who would be next in line to pursue?

Like I said earlier, my main suspect list is CES, mathcam, and undo. I also tend to agree with your case on Glork, he seems a little bit off. And, like I said, I'm more suspicious of DGB then I was yesterday, because of the anti-town way she acted at the end of the day.

(2)

Since scum know who the town are, doesn't it make it easier to say XXXXX is town when you're scum?

Not really. The timing is everything.

Several times this game, DGB declared someone town just at at moment where I felt the same way. She's getting a lot of the same gut reads that I'm getting, and that's hard to fake as scum. Also, you can tell a lot about motivation based on timing; I don't see a scum wanting to declare SSK as town on page 5 where she did, for example.

I donno, maybe it's just because I've played with her so many times, but this feels like town-DGB play, specifically.

I'm interested in your opinion on your ability to read DGB in light of Real Life Results!: DBG declared LML town in D1 (Post 388), and DGB has since explained in D2 that her read was based off of LML's "emotional" posting (Post 910). Do you think her after-the-fact explanation matches up with the in-the-moment declaration?

I recognize that DGB did mention, indirectly, LML one other time in D1 -- when DGB said that a no-lynch was preferable to a LML-lynch -- but I don't think that's relevant to what I'm asking for here: how comfortable you are with your DGB-is-town determination based on her from-the-hip assessments?

Less so, certainly. Basically I have to balance my day 1 pro-town read on her with the fact that she acted in an anti-town way at the end of the day. If she's scum, her end-day defense of LML would have been remarkably blatant, but I'm not sure I would put that past her.

She still wouldn't be my first choice to lynch, we have other people who's behavior looks more unambiguity scummy, but I'm less confident, certainly.

[Yosarian2]

How on earth did you read that from what I wrote?

If you're innocent, I'm not outing a "cop," I'm just pretending to think ABR is a cop.

Only if you're scum, am I outing a cop, LOL. You said I outed ABR-cop who is hinting at a guilty on YOU. You just confessed scum.

Thanks!

...

You give me a massive headache, DGB.

[Yosarian2]

Yos: Do you keep notes on the game?

No, I don't really do that anymore. These days I pretty much just respond to stuff directly in thread, comment on town-tells and scum-tells I see as soon as I notice them, ect. Which is why i often end up triple posting like this, heh. But I think it's usually more useful to share my thoughts like this as I have them, both town-tells and scum-tells, as it might help other people find scum as well.

[Yosarian2]

MBL: I'm slightly less suspicious of CES than I was yesterday, but he's still on my radar.

Really? Why would you be *less* suspicious of CES then you were yesterday?

Personally, now that I know that LML was scum, and that CES totally ignored him all day while focusing entirely on the Bookitty wagon, I think CES is a lot more suspicious. If LML had flipped town, I'd be less suspicious of CES.

[Yosarian2]

3/5 of your argument can still be explained by "Glork was town but wrong, and vocal about his opinion."

That's one possible explanation, Glork, but still, you defended scum. You have to understand that from the point of view of the rest of us, that is, in fact, evidence against you.

There's really not anything here. You're gonna have to try harder, kid. You're trying to cram evidence to fit the conclusion you want people to believe. You need to be critically analyzing the situation and going "why would Glork have said and done these things if he were scum?"

Why would hypothetical-scum-Glork try to stop town from lynching scum? Uh...because hypo-scum-Glork would be trying to get one step closer to achieving his win condition, obviously.

It's not conclusive, but it a point against you, and no amount of self-meta or WIFOM is going to change that. Accept it, and try to convince us you're town by your play from here on.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, there's a difference between "X defended scum" and "X tied himself to the sinking ship that was his doomed scumbuddy."

I don't know. For most of the day, LML didn't look like a "sinking ship"; there were long periods where I couldn't get more then a few people to say on his wagon. He didn't really look "doomed" until the end of the day, which is when you changed course and got on his wagon.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, Undo has been one of my main suspects for quite a while now, pretty much for the exact reason MBL just outlined. I like this wagon.

Vote:Undo

[Yosarian2]

Hmm. I'm not convinced undo is town, but that's a lot of sudden undo hate.

I think there's a lot of people who have wanted to lynch undo for a while, but just never really saw a chance.

[Yosarian2]

@KK

, what do you think of Glork's vote for LML that made it 8-8? Is that really the kind of play scum makes on a partner a few hours before deadline, when no-lynch is a more likely possibility?

Actually, I'm pretty sure I've seen scum-Glork do stuff like that before.

Scum Glork seems like a possibility to me here; it looks plausible to me that he spent most of the day trying to avoid a LML lynch, but when he saw that there was probably going to be an LML lynch (especially as the BooKitty wagon was losing steam going into the deadline, and there was no other wagon with enough support), he made sure to be on it.

[Yosarian2]

Idk Yos, you seem to be putting a lot of faith into the WIFOM town credit grab. Occam's Razor suggests that the fairly-cheeky-but-incredibly-reliant-on-other-people-interpreting-correctly play isn't likely.

I still maintain that as scum I stay away from the thread/site and have the "I work weird retail hours" alibi to fall back on.

Eh. If you were scum, and you saw that one of your scum buddies was going to get lynched on day 1 no matter what you did, I would think you would make sure to be on the wagon before the end of the day, in order to dodge later voting analysis attempts.

And you would probably try to do so *just before* it became obvious to everyone else that your scumbuddy was going to get lynched.

To be clear, none of that proves you're scum; I could see you acting the same was as town. I'm just saying that it doesn't clear you either, like MBL was trying to imply.

[Yosarian2]

On an unrelated note, I'm starting to think that DGB might actually be scum. Which is damn depressing; I really, really didn't want to lynch her. But I don't get what she's doing today at all.

[Yosarian2]

unvote:undo

Time to do a little re-reading...

[Yosarian2]

Ok, let me do an ISO of my top suspects. This is going to be a super-long post, so let me apologize for that in advance, but I just want to do a good analysis of the people I'm most suspicious of and then decide who to vote for. Feel free to skim this post if you want.

Glork was trying remarkably hard to derail the LML wagon, and to attack anyone who was pushing it.

Okay, I didn't read every single word, but I've gotten caught up and have thoughts.

So regarding this whole VitR/LML thing, I think I am of the exact opposite opinion that everyone else seems to hold. I'm feeling a slightly scummy read on VitR, and I'm really unenthusiastic about the LML bandwagon (even though I have town reads on GC/ABR/possibly UT).

I really want to see Seol respond to the whole "lynching MafiaSSK because of a theory argument is bad" criticism of his earlier posts.

I'm wary of CES. I want to go reference the MLP game we played because something he said reminded me of that game, but I'll check that out later.

Yos's switch from VitR to LML is particularly cringe-worthy and smells like scum trying to ride the tides to an easy lynch.

Vote: Yosarian2

I am genuinely curious to know why people think LML went through the VC analysis to try to frame/jump on someone who hadn't had any attention whatsoever. Yeah, he lacked context as PJ indicated, but I'm really really really not seeing the connect between what LML did and an actual scum motivation. PJ's vote also feels in that opportunistic category. There's not a lot going on, and people might be feeling antsy after the downtime, so why not punish LML?



Basically, I want to lynch one of the following people:
Seol (pending further contributions, possibly?)
VitR
Yos2
petroleumjelly
Maybe CES (pending ~reasons~)

Hey Yos, since you're here, what motivation do you see for scum-LML parking his vote on UT? Saying "this guy's votes are bad" and waiting for a response/reaction (which hasn't even come, I might note) seems pretty okay to me. Why is this such an issue for you?

And so on.

He kept attacking PJ as well. I'm really having trouble seeing how Glork reads LML as town and both PJ and me as scum here. LML seemed so obvscum and PJ seemed so obvtown to me, I'm really having trouble understanding how Glork got the opposite reads.

He reluctantly went to LML at the end of the day, saying it was because he wanted to prevent a bookitty lynch. Still, I really don't get Glork's play day 1 at all; almost none of it makes sense to me, which is very unusual, I usually get what Glork's trying to do.

And then he rolls into day 2 going after everyone who was actually trying to lynch LML, I guess because of the "bussing" quote. The amount of empathes people put on this bit of total WIFOM makes me uncomfortable, but Glork wasn't the only one doing that by a long shot, so that might be just a playstyle thing.

I also hate this meta-defense Glork makes later in the day:

Like, I'm actually legit mad that people suspect me, because I would NEVER let my ego allow me to be "wrong" about LML as scum. I realize that's self-meta and probably won't be believed, but I need to say it. I was adamant about not-liking the LML lynch, and I'm almost 90% certain that as scum, I'd have made some allowance for myself to try to gain credibility by deciding LML was scum. Even after the alleged slip, I stated AS I VOTED LML that it was merely "better than a Bookitty lynch." I was working and just as easily could have not checked the site (or not posted) and let that ride out to a no-lynch or a Bookitty-lynch.

Just on principle, I always get more suspicious of someone when they try a defense as blatantly WIFOM as "I defended scum so I must be town because I wouldn't defend scum if I was scum." With Glork, I think that may be more playstyle then anything, I've seen him make posts like this before, so I'm going to call this null-ish, but it still makes me uncomfortable.

Later in the day, jumps on the Undo wagon, and then the PJ wagon. I don't have a problem with his case against Undo, since I felt the same way myself. But his jump on the PJ wagon just seems terrible.

I'm content with a PJ lynch.

Vote: PJ

Overall, I really don't have a good feeling about Glork this game. Basically I just don't get his play here at all if he was town. He's made the argument several times that he wouldn't play like this as scum either, and maybe that's true, but overall I just don't get a good vibe from him.

Ok, next suspect: CES
______________________________________________________________________________________________
As I said before, the biggest thing CES did on day 1 was just to tunnel on Seol/Bookitty to an almost obsessive degree, and he never mentioned LML at all, which is a huge strike against him.

Other then that, he made some weirdly ambiguous comments about a few other people's alignments early...

Tigris seems nice and easy to read.

I agree with CTD that chamber's alignment is fairly obvious at this point.

And then there was this post, where CES's scum list was basically Seol+the 3 most townie-looking people in the game at the time, which was just bizzare:

Scum team: Seol/ABR/Green Crayons/DrippingGoofball/Porochaz

And then I think he attacks PJ, although I'm not sure why:

What makes you think it can't be Seol and Djelibeybi?

And then he basically just goes on to try to get Bookitty lynched for the next 10 or so posts in a row.

Today, all he did was vote mathcam, then move to Undo, then move back to mathcam after the mason claim.

Overall, I still think CES would be a good lynch. The fact that he didn't say anything about the LML wagon at all on day 1 is a huge scumtell, and nothing else he's done this game strikes me as especially town-motivated.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Next: mathcam

SSK came off seeming mildly scummy, and got wagoned for it. Standard early game stuff, playstyle mostly; probably nothing that says much abotu his alignment. In the short time he was here, he voted Glork, Tigras, then FOS'd ABR, the voted VitR, then voted CES. It's worth mentioning that LML did a weird move where he stayed on the Tigras wagon but FOS'd MafiaSSK, and then later gave conflicting reasons for why he did that, if people want to try to read the WIFOM tea leaves there.

Mathcam comes in, decides to leave vote on CES at first. Then moves over to the BooKitty wagon. He then tries to argue that BooKitty's resignation post was probably scum motivated. He tries to imply that the BooKitty wagon would be especally informative somehow, but when I questioned him about this, he didn't seem to have a good answer for how.

After I said that I was more then 50% confident that LML was scum, Mathcam promised to "go through his posts again". He later makes a somewhat strange comment about LML that seems to try to have it both ways:

Rereading LML, I can't say that I've found anything unusually scummy from him. I will say that his posting style has always left me feeling a little uncomfortable, but I'm pretty sure that this has happened as both town and scum. I will note that out of my entire read, there was no instances in which I marked him down with a particularly pro-town vote. He'd probably be in my top-5-scummiest.

I find it very strange, though, that if LML was in his top 5 scummiest, he never seemed to consider joining the wagon later, not even as a compromise.

Now reading Day 2. As I indicated earlier, the whole interaction where PJ asked Mathcam to see part of his notes, Mathcam agreed, and then Mathcam FOS'd PJ in response, just seems really weird behavior on Mathcam's part. It seems obvious to me that a pro-town PJ trying to figure out Mathcam's alignment would ask him questions like that; if mathcam didn't want to share his notes I wouldn't have had a problem with that, but sharing your notes and then claiming to be suspicious of the person who asked makes no sense to me.

In any case, I don't see much real scumhunting going on from Mathcam on day 2. He doesn't actually place a vote until he'd made literally 20 posts on day 2, most of which were irrelevent, and when he does he puts a vote on ABR with little explination. (Although looking back, he did make a case earlier on ABR being potentially linked to LML). He makes a case against ABR again in his post 44. Overall, though, there is remarkably little scumhunting going on here.

I do give him minor pro-town points for saying that he found DGB town-ish after her analysis post, that makes sense. Overall, though, mathcam is posting a lot of stuff but I just don't see a lot of pro-town motivation here.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overall, I think I'm going to go back to a

Vote: CES

for now. Willing to join either a Mathcam or a Glork wagon as well.

[Yosarian2]

And then there was this post, where CES's scum list was basically Seol+the 3 most townie-looking people in the game at the time, which was just bizzare:

You've misinterpreted both of those posts from CES if you think he was talking about scum reads in either.

Those first two posts, I assumed he was saying they were town reads, in a fairly confusing way. The scum list I quoted there, though, looked really weird.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, I don't get what's relevant about the fact that his town reads were worded confusingly. Do you think being confusing is scummy?

I was trying to analyze everything CES did. The relevant point, really, is that there is so little of it, so little of it looks town motivated, and the complete avoidance of even mentioning LML. I quoted those two posts primarily because that was nearly all the analysis he did before spending the rest of the day focused on bookitty.

[Yosarian2]

Yos: I think you've made most of those points in that post before, and I feel like I've responded to the best of my ability.

Probably. Like I said, I just was trying to re-read my main suspects.

Overall, though, mathcam is posting a lot of stuff but I just don't see a lot of pro-town motivation here.

You and GC both! I'm not sure I have much in the way of a defense here, though I'd argue that it's heavily in scum's favor to vote for anyone but themselves. I think I've been pretty reserved with my vote. Pro-town motivation doesn't necessitate trying to cobble together arguments against people you're not sure about ("scum-hunting"). It can be as simple as finding the one person you think is scum, and trying to push that argument to it's logical conclusion. Of course, there's lots of WIFOM going on here (I could be scum trying not to ruffle any feathers), but I'd like you to ask yourself if there's anything that's genuinely advantageous to scum-Cam about the way I've played today.

Basically, it's about motivation. The main motivations of a protown person is to 1. figure out everyone's alignment, 2. try to lynch people you think are scum and prevent lynches on people you think are town, and 3. try to avoid being lynched. In that order, hopefully.

Scum's motivations are 1. Avoid being lynched. 2. Try to look busy so you can avoid being lynched. 3. Either try to avoid your scumbuddies being lynched, or avoid looking connected to them if they are.

From my point of view, your day 2 posting looks a lot more like you have the second set of motivations. You don't seem to be trying very hard to either figure out anyone's alignment or to lynch anyone.

If you "found one person you thought was scum and tried to push that arguemnt to it's conclusion", that would be one thing, but it doesn't look like you're doing that either. You made an argument against ABR in your first post, then you didn't really attack anyone for your next 20 posts, then you vote ABR apparently because of the case you had made 20 posts ago, then you don't really mention him for your next 8 posts, then you make an attack against him.

If you had been "trying to push an argument on one person to it's conclusion" then I would consider that a type of scumhunting, but it doesn't really look like you were doing that either, except in a very pro forma kind of way.

Still, UT's recent actions have placed him higher up, so...

Unvote: ABR, Vote: UT.

In fact, as a bonus point, LML/UT/ABR as a scumteam does not strike me as particularly unbelievable, either, and UT was on and off that LML-wagon even more than ABR was.

And, honestly, you're doing it again. Why are you voting UT? Do you actually think he's scum? What has he done that you think is suspicious?

All of your voting and scumhunting just looks to me like you're going through the motions. I don't get the feeling that you really care that much about who's getting lynched today.

What makes that even worse is that the one time that you really did seem to care about who got lynched, the one time I got the impression you were really pushing a bandwagon, it was when you were pushing for BooKitty over LML on day 1.

[Yosarian2]

And then there was this post, where CES's scum list was basically Seol+the 3 most townie-looking people in the game at the time, which was just bizzare:

You've misinterpreted both of those posts from CES if you think he was talking about scum reads in either.

Those first two posts, I assumed he was saying they were town reads, in a fairly confusing way. The scum list I quoted there, though, looked really weird.

I don't think he was saying tigris was town. I think he was saying that pursing someone that's easy to read prematurely is silly because they'll make their alignment known with time.

Huh. Maybe. In that case CES's comments were even more unclear then I thought.

Anyway, it's not that important, other then as an example of how little CES has contributed.

[Yosarian2]

@ Yosarian

Can you please compare Untrod Tripod and CES in terms of quality and quantity of "contributing nothing?"

Eh. UT did a lot of aggressive voting and basically bloodthirsty bandwagoning. He also helped push the LML wagon for a while. (And basically every other wagon that's happened all game). I'm not going to say that I have a strong read on him, but he certainly has done stuff.

[Yosarian2]

I believe it was you who said that reading concise players was about reading them in context, not in isolation, did you do so when rereading CES?

At this point, the one real fact we have to put into context for day 1 is LML's alignment, and the LML vs. Bookitty wagon at the end of the day.

You are right, that was mostly an ISO read of CES. Do you think there's some relevant context I missed that makes his behavior make more sense?

[Yosarian2]

My question was about you, not him.

If you're asking about me, then I personally don't really put CES in the same meta-catagory as DGB or ABR.

[Yosarian2]

Porochaz is one of my strongest Townreads.

(nods) I feel the same way. He looks pretty town.

[Yosarian2]

I feel like I'm getting attacked a lot for my playstyle for a game in which every other player's idiosyncrasies are swept under the run for "being their meta." I try very hard to figure out everyone's alignment -- good or bad, I'm just not as successful as most others in believing I have done so. I don't typically push that hard for my lynches, but I listen when other people make their cases, and evaluate whether or not I think that case has merit.

I don't think this is a meta thing. I don't expect you to be hammer repeatedly at people in the ABR style, I expect you to be more genteel and logical, which is fine. But while being logical and reasonable, you can still try to get things done; like I said, you were trying quite hard to get BooKitty lynched on day 1, with several posts in a row dedicated to that. I don't feel the same sense of urgency from you today that I did yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

Is there anyone that would shed tears if we lynched this abomination?

17) SpyreX (replacing inHimshallibe who replaced Zorblag, who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22)

I mean even SpyreX can't bring himself to play this slot. Five players in two days.

We've got better possible lynches, but if we can't get anything better together, sure, you know I'm always up for a lurker lynch.

[Yosarian2]

unvote

vote:Glork

Still don't understand why no one else is willing to join me on CES, but I guess we'll have to deal with him later. Time to wagon up. Frustratingly, I'm not feeling as confident about either Glork or mathcam as I was earlier, they've both been giving more pro-town vibes since I made my case, but I don't have any better ideas either.

Looks like the deadline tonight is 10 PM GMT (Which I think is 6 PM EST? Something like that).

[Yosarian2]

Mathcam comes in, decides to leave vote on CES at first. Then moves over to the BooKitty wagon. He then tries to argue that BooKitty's resignation post was probably scum motivated. He tries to imply that the BooKitty wagon would be especally informative somehow, but when I questioned him about this, he didn't seem to have a good answer for how.

This quote by Yosarian also supports my mathcam-Bookitty theory.

Actually, what I was suggesting is that Mathcam looked like possible scum who might have been trying to lynch Bookitty to protect LML.

It looks to me like the day 1 Bookitty wagon was probably a scum-driven counterwagon to take the pressure off of LML. I think she's unlikely to be scum.

Yosarian, back me up on this, and tell me why VitaminR deliberately making posts that don't attract attention to him isn't scummy, why his defense of mathcam isn't scummy, and more importantly, why does his votes produce little more than a fizzing sound of a balloon losing air?

Early on day 1 I thought VitimanR looked town, but his play since then has been weak. He could be scum.

[Yosarian2]

Looking at some of the stuff from DGB's scumputer:

Votecount

LoudmouthLee (6) -- Green Crayons, Yosarian2, petroleumjelly, Save the Dragons, Porochaz, Kublai Khan
Kublai Khan (3) -- MrBuddyLee, Glork, DrippingGoofball
Bookitty (8) -- Sotty7, Shanba, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber, Untrod Tripod, mathcam, undo, CrashTextDummie
petroleumjelly (3) -- LoudmouthLee, Bookitty, VitaminR
Porochaz (1) -- inHimshallibe
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- Albert B. Rampage

Not voting: Nobody
22 alive, 12 to lynch.

Votecount

LoudmouthLee (11) -- Green Crayons, Yosarian2, petroleumjelly, Save the Dragons, Porochaz, Kublai Khan, VitaminR, Glork, MrBuddyLee, Bookitty, Untrod Tripod
Kublai Khan (2) -- DrippingGoofball, LoudmouthLee
Bookitty (7) -- Sotty7, Shanba, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber, mathcam, undo, CrashTextDummie
Porochaz (1) -- inHimshallibe
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- Albert B. Rampage

Not voting: Nobody
22 alive, 12 to lynch.

I make it around 1 hour and 50 minutes until deadline.

There's got to be at least 1 scum on the Bookitty wagon here, probably 2. I'm becoming increasingly confident that CES has to be scum here. Mathcam is also on the suspect list.

vote:Cogito Ergo Sum

[Yosarian2]

It may be too early for a full process of elimination scumhunting to be worth doing, but let me give it a shot.

Confirmed town:
11) Petroleumjelly
8) undo

Obvtown:
19) Save the Dragons
2) Porochaz
1) Chamber
15) Albert B. Rampage

People I think are likely town:
6) DrippingGoofball
16) Green Crayons
21) Bookitty (replacing Seol)
22) Kublai Khan (replacing Tigris)

Unsure:
9) Sotty7
5) MrBuddyLee

Lurking:
17) SpyreX (replacing inHimshallibe who replaced Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22)

Leaning scum:
12) Cogito Ergo Sum
13) mathcam (replacing MafiaSSK)
18) VitaminR


There are probably 4-5 scum left, roughly. Obviously I might not be right about all my town reads, but out of the bottom 6 people on my list there, (the unsure, lurking, and leaning scum categories) I would guess that more then half are scum.

[Yosarian2]

No, the scum on Bookitty is mathcam. We can get to mathcam later.

You really think that, in a game that probably had 5-6 scum, that there was only 1 scum on that entire Bookitty wagon?

[Yosarian2]

There's got to be at least 1 scum on the Bookitty wagon here, probably 2. I'm becoming increasingly confident that CES has to be scum here. Mathcam is also on the suspect list.

Yeah, that's just lazy bullshit. You're really not looking at your own arguments skeptically if you think this is a thing that matters.

How so? I thought that wagon looked scum-driven at the time, and am even more confident of that now that we know LML was scum.

There's no way a nonesense wagon over nothing builds up like that, as a counterweight to a real wagon on an obvious scum, without some scum pushing the wagon.

Anyway, I keep coming back to the fact that this game might have had as many as 5 or 6 scum, and looking over the player list, I keep trying to come up with a scumgroup that doesn't include you, and it's hard to see. Mathcam, VitimanR, maybe Spyrex (although I kind of doubt it), maybe Sotty....and then who?

[Yosarian2]

First question:

Could

Save the Dragons

be scum?

I would be pretty shocked if he was. The way he went after LML, then went to the bookitty wagon, then came back to LML looks like someone who was honestly trying to find scum, not like someone who already knew LML's alignment and was trying to bus. He also made a bunch of plays that don't make sense for day 1 scum-STD play; votes Undo but then defends him later, tries to pick a fight with me for basically no reason, picks a fight with PJ for basically no reason, picks a fight with you...

Plus, this post:

oh but I don't know if I'm ready. my body's saying yes, but my heart is saying yes...

Wait a minute.

Vote: LML

[Yosarian2]

You said "yosarian looks really bad." Why? You said VitR, Poro look better, CES looks worse. Why? ...etc.

Those that look worse do so because while they were on few wagons, they tended to be on wagon with high probability of the remaining players being scum.

You know, the only reason I wasn't on many wagons yesterday is because I was on CES most of the day and nobody else would join me. And since CES is pretty obvscum at this point, I don't see how that's supposed to be an argument against me.

[Yosarian2]

Check your role PM maybe.

I think I've grown pretty desensitized to your passive-agressive barbs, but I'm intrigued that I can't even figure out what this one's even implying.

She's saying that you're not even looking for scum, and haven't been for most of the game. And then she made the sarcastic suggestion that if you do decide to look for scum, you might want to start with your own role PM.

Sarcasm aside, I tend to agree with her; I said yesterday that you haven't seemed to be doing much scumhunting, and you've done even less today.

[Yosarian2]

FOS: Yosarian

Are you fosing me for saying I suspect mathcam for not scumhunting enough? I've been saying that for quite a while now.

[Yosarian2]

How the heck does this even work when you're town? I assume you MUST do this when town because otherwise I don't know why you're still alive. I'm assuming that you don't have a heap of votes on you because everyone's like "oh, that's just how she plays."

The scumputer is basically witchcraft, imo, but it's something I've seen DGB doing constantly for several years now. She plugs all kinds of stuff and numbers in, does some weird stuff that nobody else understands, waves her hands and dances in a circle while chanting, and then declares a bunch of people scum with extreme confidence.

It's not something I've ever taken very seriously, but if nothing else, watching everyone else's reactions to it can be very useful. It's certanly not a scumtell on DGB's part, she does this while town all the time.

I'm frankly kind of amazed that BooKitty apparently understood DGB's logic well enough to correct her math; I don't think I've ever seen someone try to do that before.

[Yosarian2]

Damn. You caught me.

GG I concede.

Joke or truth???

Damn. You caught me.

GG I concede.

Hey Yosarian, is the above a scum post or what? It makes my scumdar pulsate and glow.

Eh. Maybe I'm biased, but honestly STD could claim scum right now and I still wouldn't believe him.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian: What do you think of mathcam's opinion of CES? 1894

It feels like a reasonable post to me, and like I think I made clear, I'd rather lynch CES then mathcam today.

CES also voted Mathcam a lot yesterday. If they're both scum, they've been distancing for a while.

[Yosarian2]

These chamber votes are awful. pj is just being petty and undo lazy.

2.)

While I am not enthused with Albert B. Rampage, I think he could easily be right on the money on VitaminR. VitaminR has looked scummier every Day of the game. His Sotty7 vote in particular made me curl my lip. VitaminR's play, as I said earlier, looks like he is trying to set himself for play later in the game; he inoffensively is trying to join wagons. I would be willing to lynch him.

I'm not particularly surprised about this, you've never been able to read me. But your idea that I'm setting up play for later is ridiculous (and based on

exactly one vote

). I've said repeatedly that I don't get why people think mathcam is scum. What do you expect me to do? Not vote anyone?

This is very badposting. Bitching about the play of the masons so as to look like you're doing something without actually doing anything useful yourself?

unvote

vote: VitaminR

[Yosarian2]

Happy to lynch either CES or VitaminR at this point. Mathcam also looks suspicious, for a number of reasons, but I have more mixed feelings about him.

Honestly CES just looks to be playing like caught scum at this point; he's carefully avoiding commenting on anyone other then Mathcam, perhaps to avoid giving us anything to go on when he does get lynched, and when I attacked him earlier today his response just sounded like he was complaining that I caught him for the wrong reasons.

There's got to be at least 1 scum on the Bookitty wagon here, probably 2. I'm becoming increasingly confident that CES has to be scum here. Mathcam is also on the suspect list.

Yeah, that's just lazy bullshit. You're really not looking at your own arguments skeptically if you think this is a thing that matters.

It doesn't feel like he's angry I think he's scum, or that he's surprised he's under suspicion, just that he thinks he's being caught for the wrong reason.

Meanwhile, VitimanR juts feels wrong. His votes are wrong, his reactions are wrong, his moves are wrong. Pretty consistently. His suspicions never really feel right, they never happen at the right time. He's buddying chamber really hardcore, and has been since yesterday, often in ways that are totally BS. Chamber questioned me a little, and VitimanR followed. The masons pressure chamber to stop acting in what they precieve to be in an anti-town way, and VitR jumps to criticize the masons for it. That's just not town play.

We really should lynch one of the two of them today, I think. They're probably both scum. I'd compromise on a mathcam lynch if necessary, but I'm less confident about him.

[Yosarian2]

The play of the masons there is just objectively bad though?

(shrug) They're trying to pressure you to act in a more pro-town way, as PJ defines the term; agree or disagree with the details, that's generally a reasonable thing to do, and it's pretty much exactally what I would expect from a coldly logical player like PJ who's used to demanding answers and getting them when someone just flatly refuses to answer questions for no good reason.

Now, seeing that, the town reaction one would expect from some uninvolved third party would be to either support them, or to use the situation to try to get a read on you, or to get out of their way and do something else. Getting in the way of the masons while they're trying to do something they think is useful is just totally counterproductive at best.

The only logical reason for VitR to try to criticize the masons at this point is if he's trying to buddy you and get you "on his side". My best bet right now is that you're probably town, and he's scum trying to use you.

[Yosarian2]

I think you're being a bit unfair here. This is kind of a fabricated point. I posted one line about how I didn't like the chamber votes and the rest was just a response to pj's suspicions of me. Am I not allowed to defend myself now?

You bashed both PJ and Undo for putting pressure on chamber. Attacking masons, and trying to undermine what they are doing, is just obviously anti-town.

And you're exaggerating the chamber stuff. You think it's strange that I took chamber's side against pj? Pj pulled the same 'answer this question, now answer this question'-move on me Day 1 and I refused to play along, because it's just time-wasting. In addition, I'm like almost 100% sure that chamber is town, it's my strongest read in the game. That's basically been true since page 2. So yes, I was also defending him a little bit.

Answering questions asked of you by a confirmed town PJ is "a waste of time"?

If you want to defend chamber, then the way to do that would be to explain to PJ why you think chamber is town. You weren't doing that, you were just attacking the masons. And not even like you didn't believe them or anything; you clearly understand they're town, you just wanted to be seen to be "on chamber's side". It's just not a town move.

And show me all the ways in which I've buddied chamber that are 'total BS' to you.

Let's start with the one that really jumped out at me. Page 63 of the game, Chamber asked me questions about my CES analysis, and you then basically echoed chamber, asking me the exact same questions again.

And then there was this post, where CES's scum list was basically Seol+the 3 most townie-looking people in the game at the time, which was just bizzare:

You've misinterpreted both of those posts from CES if you think he was talking about scum reads in either.

Yos, I don't get what's relevant about the fact that his town reads were worded confusingly. Do you think being confusing is scummy?

@chamber and VitaminR

What the hell are you two talking about???

Yosarian made an award-winning post, completely logical and I agree with everything he says. I'm very upset at chamber and VitaminR's ambuiguous replies.

What was ambiguous about my reply? I feel like Yos is trying too hard to make a case against CES out of very little, which worries me, because it could indicate an ulterior motive on Yos's part. I don't understand why he pulled out CES's town read comments, as if stating something confusingly is scummy.

It looks to me like you were both trying to buddy chamber, and to use chamber to both attack me and to defend CES.

There's are other places too where I get the idea you were trying to buddy chamber:

chamber, what do you think of pj and Glork?
.

Detracting from the undo wagon would likely just end in DGB getting lynched, but he's a serious consideration for a later date now, I want to review his older play.

Yesssss.

chamber, I agree that CTD and Shanba are kind of odd choices. It was one of the weaker reasons why I thought there could very well be scum in pj/Glork.

I know, chamber, but answering petty with petty just doesn't seem productive.

Overall, it looks to me like you were trying to buddy chamber, and trying to use chamber to push various bad wagons, especially the PJ and Glork wagons, for most of the game, as well as trying to use him to bolster your attempts to defend CES.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, I freely admit I've defended chamber and CES (I've done this fairly openly from the start).

I'm not accusing you of defending chamber (that is, trying to stop him from being lynched). You don't seem to be doing that, really. What I'm accusing you of is trying to be buddy-buddy with chamber as a way to manipulate him.

You are defending CES, which I'm not a fan of, but I'll admit that's not really a strong argument against you until we know CES's alignment. Your relations with Chamber look different then that; making a point with saying you agreed with him even if cases where it didn't seem to fit what you had previously said (for example, in the one quote above, his opinion of Undo looks different then the one you previously had, but you just quote him and say "yessss").

It's also a little weird when you say things like "Gee, I was wrong about both PJ and Glork, maybe I should re-evaluate all my town reads" and then instantly go right back to buddying chamber and defending CES without showing any sign of re-evaluting your reads on them.

Look, I know both chamber and CES well. They are the players I like the most in this game and feel the most comfortable playing with. I often agree with them and understand the way they think. Do you think that perhaps this by itself explains my interactions with them a lot better than your theory?

Well, I'm not surprised to see you defending CES like you are. I just don't get what your interactions with chamber are supposed to accomplish if you're town, though.

Why? I can no longer disagree with them because they're masons? Maybe you can say I was too harsh, that's sort of fair. But they're not immune from criticism just because they are masons.

If you were convinced that both PJ and chamber were town, then I would expect you to try to make peace between them, or to convince chamber to just answer the questions and get it over with, or to convince PJ that he's acting in a way that's not helpful, or to convince PJ that chamber is town, or something.

Insulting PJ and undo because of their chamber votes doesn't do any of that. Just insulting them, without trying to actually convince them that chamber is town or whatever, is just going to make them dig their heels in more, and predictably so. It's a way for you to *escalate* the fight between PJ and chamber, while trying to look like you're on chamber's side.

I haven't found pj's questions helpful at all this game (and I'm not the only one to criticize him for this). I was subjected to them Day 1 and it felt like being badgered by someone under the pretense of logical questioning without any real appreciation for their point of view.

PJ knows what he's doing. He's one of the stronger mafia players I've ever played with, and everything he does has a purpose.

I can understand blowing the questions off if you're not sure of his alignment or if you're worried he's scum trying to make you look bad, but if you accept that he's town, then not co-operating with him doesn't make sense.

I don't even care about chamber's stubborness here; I think it's anti-town for him to refuse to answer questions, but it's not scummy, imho, there's no real scum motivation for him here. But you supporting him in answering questions, there is.

Also, if you were town who actually thought PJ was scum earlier and now know that you were totally wrong, I would expect your behavior toward PJ to have changed more then it has.

This is fair enough, but I'm not sure it's easy for me to put into words why I'm so convinced chamber is town. Part of it was his intensity out of the gate Day 1, part of it is his attitude. He is much more cautious and logical as scum. His play here is essentially carefree and he's only that way as town.

Even if you had just said that to PJ, that would have been a much more logical play then just calling him "petty". I'm sure you know that's not true; you're just trolling a confirmed town PJ, most likely because you are trying to get PJ to lash out even harder at chamber.

[Yosarian2]

I explicitly address this point above. Did you read my reply? Where are my attempts to manipulate chamber? The ONE question I asked him? Is that it?

(shrug) Weather you're "trying to manipulate" consciously him or not, it's very natural for scum to try to find townies willing to "ally" with them, and that's what your posting history looks like. Sometimes this is a careful manipulative plan, sometimes it's more a subconscious instinct, but either way it's common. The fact that you know chamber well makes hypo-scum-VitR more likely to try that.

Town usually are paranoid about buddying that much, because they don't really trust anyone. Scum, on the other hand, already know who is town; it's much more common behavior to see from scum.

You really think it's realistic to expect me "try and make peace between them"? I'm not their camp counselor. I posted my opinion to counterbalance pj's, which I thought would be more effective. I concede your point that I was probably too harsh, though.

Frankly, if you see two confirmed town masons trying to scumhunt, trying to get some answers and to use pressure to gather information, what I would expect is that you either support and help them do what they're doing, or stay our of their way and see if they find out anything interesting. If you were absolutely convinced that it was a damaging town v town fight, then maybe I could see you try to "make peace", but you weren't doing that either.

Basically you have to understand here that I have limited information to work off of; I have to figure out if you're town or not based on your behavior, and right now, your behavior doesn't look town, since I can think possible anti-town motives for your behavior, and I can't think of any pro-town motives for your behavior.

The response on PJ was just the straw that broke the camel's back; as I made clear, you were already one of my top 3 suspects. Other then your early vote for LML, your voting record doesn't really look town, and the pattern you're making of attacking and defending people doesn't really look town.

PJ knows what he's doing. He's one of the stronger mafia players I've ever played with, and everything he does has a purpose.

I can understand blowing the questions off if you're not sure of his alignment or if you're worried he's scum trying to make you look bad, but if you accept that he's town, then not co-operating with him doesn't make sense.

I don't even care about chamber's stubborness here; I think it's anti-town for him to refuse to answer questions, but it's not scummy, imho, there's no real scum motivation for him here. But you supporting him in answering questions, there is.

Also, if you were town who actually thought PJ was scum earlier and now know that you were totally wrong, I would expect your behavior toward PJ to have changed more then it has.

Whether I find his questioning useful is not an alignment-dependent opinion. I'm not going to unquestionably venerate his methods, like you seem to be doing, just because he's a claimed mason.

(shrug) I don't care if you "unquestionably venerate his methods." But it's obviously anti-town to get in the way of a pair of masons trying to do something useful, like trying to get answers from a player to find out his alignment.

Someone we KNOW is town is trying to scumhunt, trying to gather information from another player. Maybe we'll learn something, maybe we won't. Why wouldn't you let him try and see what he finds out?

[Yosarian2]

Anyone can see that his methods aren't going to lead where he wants them to go. The questioning isn't happening regardless of what I do. The only thing I was trying to stand in the way off were the useless throwing around of votes over it, which, in my opinion, just serve as a distraction.

Uh. If you're trying to get soemone to answer questions, and they flatly refuse to do so, basically your only option at that point is to try to increase the pressure on that person until they do so. Why would you think that's "useless"? It's basically central to the entire way the game of mafia works.

[Yosarian2]

I don't have time to metadive yos right now and seem to remember my gut being unreliable at reading him. Does anyone else have a bad taste from some of his recent posts?

...because I'm trying to figure out VitR's alignment?

[Yosarian2]

Oh, to answer the question:

You think I've been sticking with it because of 'a subconscious scum instinct' to buddy, knowing I'm going to get this kind of flak for it, or because I legitimately have strong reasons to think those players are town?

If you think a player is town, then you have a strong reason to defend that person, or to work with that person. You have zero reason, though, to buddy him, to try to make him "like" you, unless you're scum.

You keep trying to confuse the issue here, but buddying someone is entirely different from defending them or working with them. It's about trying to manipulate *them* to make them think that *you* are on their side.

[Yosarian2]

I've told you the pro-town motives, the ones that are actually the truth. You just don't want to listen to them.

And, for the record, no, you have not. You have not given any explanation yet for how your buddying of chamber or your trolling of PJ was supposed to help the town win, which is what "pro-town" means.

[Yosarian2]

I don't have time to metadive yos right now and seem to remember my gut being unreliable at reading him. Does anyone else have a bad taste from some of his recent posts?

...because I'm trying to figure out VitR's alignment?

It doesn't look like you are trying to figure out his alignment, it looks like you are trying to smear him.

I'm going to keep making my case against him until he starts to make sense, or until it becomes completely obvious that he's scum. One or the other. I don't really care if you like it or not; I'm not going to pretend that his behavior makes sense from a town perspective just because of his repeated appeals to emotion.

[Yosarian2]

Unvote, vote: Save the Dragons

Meanwhile CES is still very, very much scum.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos

, you've expressed near-constant suspicion of mathcam all game, and yet are only of only three players to never vote mathcam. How have you never ended up on any of his abundant wagons?

He's consistently been one of my top 3 suspects since yesterday, but he's never quite been at the top of the list. Mostly because every once in a while he makes a post that gives me a that makes me doubt my read on him, basically for gut.

Logically speaking, he's still pretty likely to be scum, and I'd join a mathcam lynch as a compromise if necessary, but I still have doubts. I'm especially leery since I feel about the same way about him that I did about Glork yesterday; logically likely to be scum, but gut doubts. So I'd rather lynch either CES or VitR right now.

[Yosarian2]

You are just continuously throwing your case against him until he or it(in your opinion) breaks.

Yeah, that's basically how I find scum. Take a look at how I went after LML on day 1; you'll see pretty much the same thing. Either the person breaks, which makes it easy to figure out their alignment, or the case falls apart under closer examination.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, how do you find that set of circumstances obvtownish?

Hmm. Yeah, looking back, i suppose that's a fair summation.

I guess a lot of my STD read is really gut, based on the style of his posts and what I remembered of how scum-STD played.

I also tend to think that if scum-STD was going to bus LML, he's probably try to do so in a way designed to get more town cred; his behavior looks more like a townie who suspected both Boo and LML. But that's a bit WIFOM, I suppose.

I guess you're looking at this in a more unbaised way then I was, and I don't disagree with any of your points. Except...I still don't think STD is scum.

[Yosarian2]

I basically agree with Yos on StD. I think MBL's case is kinda convincing, but I just have a hard time moving past the strong town feeling I get from his posts.

What kind of failscum tries to derail a competing wagon with a credible case?

VitaminR is town.

Meh. We can lynch CES today instead, if you want.

unvote:VitimanR

vote:CES

I'm telling you, though, you should not be on the STD wagon. I really think he's going to flip town.

[Yosarian2]

Sotty was in my "unsure" category when I made my list, and I still don't feel like I have a strong read on her. Considering how many people I do have a town-ish read on, that means I'm willing to lynch her. Wouldn't be my top choice, but she could be scum.

[Yosarian2]

unless someone wants to lynch Yos, which I would also be up for.

Are you sure you're not scum? Because your only case on me was your scummy echoing of chamber's confused question, and the fact that you didn't like that I was attacking you earlier today. When you do naked OMGUS like this, it really just makes me want to lynch you.

[Yosarian2]

We're lynching Sotty today and VitaminR tomorrow.

Much as I like mathcam's reasoning, I'm going to sheep PJ on this and hold off on voting Sotty, at least for now.

[Yosarian2]

We're lynching Sotty today and VitaminR tomorrow.

Much as I like mathcam's reasoning, I'm going to sheep PJ on this and hold off on voting Sotty, at least for now.

PJ's reasoning is what in your opinion?

It was here:

In Georgetown II I spent a fair deal of time reading (and rereading) Sotty7's posts, being concerned in particular with (i) how she defended scum, (ii) how her play appeared to be coasting and (iii) how her play was potentially ingratiating towards a few select players while being selectively dismissive towards others.

Levels of aggression vary depending on the strength of the reads involved, and I believe that is the case here (as opposed to being an indicator of a different alignment). I believe she is honestly trying to determine alignments and her back-and-forth on views (in particular, her "wringing her hands about Save the Dragons being Town" as DrippingGoofball characterizes it) reads exceedingly genuinely. I would be

shocked

if she is scum.

Like I said earlier, I don't have any read on Sotty at all at this point. If PJ says he has a town read on her based on his comparing her play here to a previous game he played with her, then I'm going to take that seriously. He's confirmed town, and I tend to trust his judgement.

[Yosarian2]

I knew where it was. I was confirming that you thought a single point of meta was a sufficient reason to call someone town.

If PJ thinks he has a read on Sotty, and PJ is confirmed town, then, yeah, that's good enough for me to at least not want to lynch Sotty today. Obviously I'd still lynch her if it was that or no-lynch, but I'd rather not.

If PJ says he has a town read on her based on his comparing her play here to a previous game he played with her, then I'm going to take that seriously. He's confirmed town, and I tend to trust his judgement.

NOW

you're scum.

Oh, bullshit. You know me better then that, DGB. If confirmed town PJ, or confirmed town Either, or a handful of other people who I have a ton of confidence in tell me "person X is town", then I'll say "ok" and won't lynch that person. I don't understand why anyone wouldn't, honestly; sheeping a competent mason when you don't know what else to do is just common sense.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian, where would you like me to vote?

For now, I'd say CES. If we can't lynch him today, I'm willing to go elsewhere,. But he can't not be scum at this point.

[Yosarian2]

unless someone wants to lynch Yos, which I would also be up for.

Are you sure you're not scum? Because your only case on me was your scummy echoing of chamber's confused question, and the fact that you didn't like that I was attacking you earlier today. When you do naked OMGUS like this, it really just makes me want to lynch you.

Oh, you're going to pretend this is scummy too?.

Honestly, if you were actually town, I don't think you would suspect me at this point. On the other hand, scum VitR would pretty much have to pretend to suspect me now. You're reacting the way I would expect you to react as scum.

Part of the reason I attacked you was to see how you'd react, and you're not reacting like town. Which is a shame, because I really bought DGB's argument about you being town for a minute there.

[Yosarian2]

Your sucking up to PJ is noted.

DGB, you've played with me in literally dozens of games, hundreds if you include games at Ether's scum meet. When have you ever seen scum Yossarian playing the way you're claiming I'm playing? I mean, ever?

[Yosarian2]

You haven't conceded a single point and been pretty stubborn about it, when I know you're wrong about every one of them!

What have I "been wrong" about? I explained why I thought your behavior looked more likely to come from town then scum. You said as your defense that you might behave like that anyway because you're friends with chamber and CES. Ok, that's reasonable enough, but that behavior is still more likely to come from town then from scum. I don't care how angry you get about it, I'm not going to "conceed that point" when we both know that I'm correct about that.

The fact that you're now claiming to suspect me, using that threat of attack, as a weapon to try to get me to back down from attacking you just makes you look worse. You're attacking me BECAUSE I'm still attacking you, because I didn't "conceed" points or "back down" or whatever. I understand that you would *like* me to stop attacking you, but that's not a reason to *suspect* me. Unless, of course, you are scum, and all your suspicions are fake anyway.

Now, to be fair, it is *possible* for a townie to behave like that; it's not that uncommon for a townie to behave irrationally because he's being attacked and he doesn't like to be. However, it is more likely to come from scum then from town, because town actually want to find scum, while scum think of their vote as just another tool to use to help them win.

[Yosarian2]

Reversed the word order of "town" and "scum" in that post, but you know what I mean.

[Yosarian2]

I also

strongly

urge the players voting Sotty7 to move their votes now. I do not claim to be confident somebody is Town lightly. This is not me just thinking Sotty7 is

probably

Town -- I am

sure

she is Town.

Albert, DGB: I would bet you 50 bucks, right now, that Sotty is town.

We've got one of the best mafia players ever as a confirmed town mason, and you're not even going to *listen* to him when he says something like that? What the hell's the point of having masons, then?

[Yosarian2]

No, we're at deadline. Vote for DGB, Sotty, or Yosarian. I think DGB is town, but other people don't, so there are your choices.

Uh. The wagons are DGB, CES, and Sotty. Nobody is voting for me, because nobody actually thinks I'm scum, although VitimanR and now DGB are pretending to.

[Yosarian2]

I would bet you 50 bucks

You're trying to be modkilled? Please retract.

You understand that that's just a figure of speech, right? Nobody's actually betting money.

[Yosarian2]

CES hasn't done anything scummy

Except for totally avoiding commenting in any way about the LML wagon while pushing the bookitty counterwagon, and for generally having an aweful pattern of votes all game, and for refuisng act in a pro-town way at any point this game, and basically doing everything but confessing to be scum. But, you know, other then that.

and Sotty is voting for CES, which also makes me think he's town.

Sotty is town. Aren't you paying attention?

I think that you're scum.

And here comes the inevitable day 3 irrational "Yos is scum" paranoia. Never mind that I caught a scum on day 1 and had to fucking pull teeth to get him lynched because I had to drag you, DGB, and everyone else who's trying to lynch me right now had to be dragged kicking and screaming on to the LML wagon. Never mind that I'm clearly right about CES being scum, never mind that you're acting like an idiot. Yos must be scum, because (?)

And here come OGML to vote Yos, of course. OGML, has there ever been a game where you WEREN"T convinced I was scum from the moment you joined? I can't think of one.

You know, whatever. I'm pretty sure I've called out roughly half the scumteam today, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised when random people suddenly come out of the woodwork to try to lynch me for absolutely no goddamned reason the day before the deadline hits. I'm not even surprised.

[Yosarian2]

We've got one of the best mafia players ever as a confirmed town mason, and you're not even going to *listen* to him when he says something like that?

Pffffffffffffffffffffffffft

NO.

PJ is as certain that I'm scum as he's certain that Sotty7 is town.

Therefore Sotty7 is scum if I merge what I know of my own alignment, and PJ's judgment of alignments.

I don't trust PJ's ability to read your alignment. Your playstyles are totally opposite in basically every way; of course he can't read you, any more then you can read him.

However, I do trust PJ's read of Sotty here. You should too.

[Yosarian2]

Ah. Third mason? Interesting, I didn't see that coming.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian is happening, MBL and STD, move your votes.

Wait. You only suspected me in the first fucking place because I stopped you from lynching Sotty today. Now Sotty is confirmed town, and you still want to lynch me? What the hell?

[Yosarian2]

This is a pretty big component of my Yos suspicion. He took the sotty read for clearly weak reasons at face value way too easily. So the question is did he realize PJ was softclaiming masons with her all the way back there. Or did he just assume PJ had good reasons because he knew sotty was town.

I didn't realize PJ was softclaiming, no. But, protip: when a strong player you trust says "person X is town, I know how to read them, get the fuck off that wagon right now", always listen to them, they're right 95% of the time.

Or, to put it another way; we do not live in a universe where town-PJ says something like "I am SURE Sotty is town" and then is wrong. PJ is so rarely that confident about anything.

As soon as PJ said that, the Sotty wagon should have just vanished, period, especially since it was so weak to begin with. I honestly don't understand why it didn't.

[Yosarian2]

Seol/Bookitty (9) --

Sotty7, Shanba

, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber,

Untrod Tripod

, Save the Dragons,

petroleumjelly

, MafiaSSK/mathcam,

undo

No one is going to tell me that this wagon has no scum on it.

THANK YOU. That's what I've been saying all day. Now stop screwing around and help me lynch CES.

[Yosarian2]

MBL, Yos being right every time makes him more scummy not less.

You know, ABR, I actually am pretty good at this game. When I'm town, I'm right, a lot. That's not exactally a logical argument against me.

In my last scum game in a large, Star Wars, I bussed my scumbuddy day 1 in the same way Yos positioned himself against LML.

I'm sure you did. But I dare you to find a game where I did something like that, ever. As scum, I almost never bus, unless I really think I have to; my preferred way to win as scum is to sweep the game with my entire scum team intact.

[Yosarian2]

This is not at all true. You never said anything was "reasonable enough", you said it was "obviously anti-town" and that you couldn't think of "any pro-town motives for my behavior". Your attack on me was totally overblown. If you had actually said what you say here (that my explanations seem reasonable, but you think yours are more likely), it wouldn't have bothered me at all. But it's the fact that every one of your posts just seems to take the worst possible interpretation of anything I say and acts like that's the only plausible reading.

Uh. Of course I'm not going to give you an out when I'm trying to put pressure on you in order to figure out your alignment. It's not my job to construct your defense for you; that's not how this game works.

Anyway, there really wasn't a pro-town reason given. There was a possible scum reason ("to buddy chamber for strategic reasons") and a possible alignment neutral reason ("chamber is my friend irl") but no pro-town reason. If you had a pro-town explanation for your behavior, some way your behavior actually helps the town win, you haven't given it.

Anyway, on the off chance that you really are interested in what I'm thinking, I did imply that I was starting to doubt my scum read on you here:

I basically agree with Yos on StD. I think MBL's case is kinda convincing, but I just have a hard time moving past the strong town feeling I get from his posts.

What kind of failscum tries to derail a competing wagon with a credible case?

VitaminR is town.

Meh. We can lynch CES today instead, if you want.

unvote:VitimanR

vote:CES

I'm telling you, though, you should not be on the STD wagon. I really think he's going to flip town.

And, yes, part of that was because of your defense.

But your attack on me just seems really scummy, and opportunistic; it feels more like how scum reacts under pressure then how town behaves. Your vote on Sotty also was pretty terrible.

Also, I didn't "behave like that because I'm friends with chamber and CES". It wasn't some private party. I defended them because I think they're town (still pretty sure about chamber, maybe less about CES), which comes from knowing them well.

Again, defending someone isn't a scum tell, at least not until that person flips scum. You keep misrepresenting me here, and I'm starting to wonder if it's deliberate. That was not what I attacked you for.

Stop pretending that it's illegitimate for me to suspect you for attacking me in a way that doesn't make sense to me.

You've made clear that you're voting for me because you don't like that I kept attacking you and didn't back down. Of course that's illegitimate.

And, frankly, I don't believe that I "didn't make sense to you"; I think I was speaking quite clearly, and I'm sure I made myself pretty well understood.

[Yosarian2]

I'm pretty sure I've called out roughly half the scumteam today

Where. I iso'd you quickly and couldn't find it.

Here:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go


The relevent part:

...
Unsure:
9) Sotty7
5) MrBuddyLee

Lurking:
17) SpyreX (replacing inHimshallibe who replaced Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22)

Leaning scum:
12) Cogito Ergo Sum
13) mathcam (replacing MafiaSSK)
18) VitaminR


There are probably 4-5 scum left, roughly. Obviously I might not be right about all my town reads, but out of the bottom 6 people on my list there, (the unsure, lurking, and leaning scum categories) I would guess that more then half are scum.

If there's 4 scum left, then 2 of them are VitR and CES. SpyreX is also a plasuable third buddy. Sotty is now confirmed town, and I'm less suspicious of Mathcam.

[Yosarian2]

I happen to know CES quite well and I feel like there are way more town tells in his play so far than usual. He stuck his neck out to make a case against you Day 1, which he wouldn't do as scum (I noted this at the time). He also very quickly read chamber as town Day 1, in the same way that I did, which makes me think we're approaching the game the same way. The way he has reacted to ABR's case on me I think also fits more with him as town, but I'm less certain about that tell.

I defended them because I think they're town (still pretty sure about chamber,

maybe less about CES

), which comes from knowing them well.

What.

Now that it looks like CES might actually get lynched today, VitR is backtracking. While still pushing any alternate bandwagon he can find.

After we lynch CES today and he flips scum, VitR is his buddy.

[Yosarian2]

I've already stated why I think VitR is scum -- and why he's the lynch of the day. Go read that post and be persuaded.

I agree, he probably is, but deadline is tommorow and I don't think there's enough votes on VitR.

Come join us on CES today. Assuming VitR is scum, CES is his most likely buddy anyway.

[Yosarian2]

VitaminR and I caught LML before Yosarian.

Neither you nor VitR were much help in actually lynching him. For a very long time during day 1, me, Green Crayons, and PJ were the only ones pushing the LML wagon. It was quite a struggle to get him lynched.

You can't say you "caught" him when you bailed on the wagon for no good reason. You suspected him, but I was the one who really nailed him.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos

, how would you characterize VitR's work on the LML lynch compared to your own?

VitR voted LML very early, in a way that I at the time thought was rather weird. Later in the day, when LML started actually looking more and more scummy, VitR's support for the wagon faded away, and he moved his vote over to PJ instead.

He did go back to LML in the end, but in a lukewarm way, going back to PJ again for a while before ending up on LML. Overall, knowing LML was scum, I see most of VitR's play on day 1 as overall looking pro-town, but with some really weird notes. His play day 2 was stranger, though.

Overall, I'm not as confident of VitR's alignment as I am of CES's at this point. That being said, I have trouble coming up with a plausible scum group that doesn't include VitR.

[Yosarian2]

I don't care, Yosarian. Answer my question about STD.

I still don't think STD is scum, if that was your question.

[Yosarian2]

Who are your 4 scum, Yosarian?

Clearly at least one or two of my town reads earlier were wrong, which is making me a bit paranoid.

Right now, I'd say CES, VitR, and very plausibly Spyrex are scum, but I'm not sure who the other 1-2 scum are. It's got to be someone in the group of (mathcam, MBL, DGB, Albert, OGML, chamber, STD), but at one point or another in this game I've gotten what I thought was a town read on everyone in that group, so at least one of my town reads is wrong. I don't think it's plausible it could be Bookitty, Prozac, or Green Crayons.

I think once we lynch another scum or two, though, it should be easier to figure out.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, explain this to me, Albert, because you're really not making sense at this point. What, exactally, has CES done this game that's making you so sure he's town? Why are you defending him so hard?

Point me to a post he's made that looks town-ish to you. Anything.

[Yosarian2]

Your list of suspects is too large. I don't get any pro-town vibes from you. I see you trying to get one or two players lynched, but I don't see you trying to read the game and find the scum as a whole.

I don't need to find "the scum as a whole". In order to win, I just need to find one scum a day. Day 1, I found LML and lynched him. Day 2, I found CES. Day 3, I found VitR.

[Yosarian2]

Was VitR using Glork's cover to get off the LML-wagon and on to PJ? Note the bolded "

opportunistic

" in both Glork's and VitR's posts.

Yeah, I tend to agree. That wasn't the only time he did that, either.

Unvote, Vote: pj

Ehh, I've changed my mind again. Glork is right, there's still something very off about pj.

[Yosarian2]

I think that CES is lynchbait. If I were scum, that's who I'd try to push a bandwagon on so I could live another day.

If CES is lynchbait, then why has he been so goddamned hard to lynch? I've been trying to lynch him since pretty early on day 2, because of his behavior about the LML wagon, and it's been impossible to get any momentum going there at all.

[Yosarian2]

Because enough of the game has played with him to know that hes often mislynchbait?

Really? CES? I don't remember him being mislynched a lot.

Anyway, a ton of people are defending him incredibly hardcore, and have been for much of the game, and I just don't see it.

Albert is now denying that he was defending CES, although of course he was:

No, we're at deadline. Vote for DGB, Sotty, or Yosarian. I think DGB is town, but other people don't, so there are your choices.

In a situation where the top 3 wagons were DGB, Sotty, and CES, he ignored the CES wagon as an option. And then, he directly defends CES:

CES hasn't done anything scummy, and Sotty is voting for CES, which also makes me think he's town.

The number of people who have been defending CES, and the vehemence with which they've been doing it, seems totally out of proportion to anything he's done this game. I can understand someone saying "meh, I don't really have a read on CES right now", but I can't understand anyone defending him.

When I asked Albert why he was designed CES, he dodged the question. VitR is now trying to soften his position on CES. It feels like I'm fighting my way through a swamp here trying to lynch him, constantly being opposed while the people who are trying to protect CES are trying to deny they're doing it at the same time. That's part of the reason I'm convinced he's the right lynch.

[Yosarian2]

CES is always mislynched.

If that's true, then the fact that he's been so hard to lynch this game looks even worse.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, a ton of people are defending him incredibly hardcore

No they haven't been? Who other than VitR and weird Albert whims?

VitR, Albert, OGML:

I'm very anti CES lynch

You, of coursE:

CES's vote for undo was completely alignment neutral, I could have told you he would do that before he did.

And then there was this post, where CES's scum list was basically Seol+the 3 most townie-looking people in the game at the time, which was just bizzare:

You've misinterpreted both of those posts from CES if you think he was talking about scum reads in either.

I believe it was you who said that reading concise players was about reading them in context, not in isolation, did you do so when rereading CES?

A lot of other people are just flat out ignoring any case anyone makes against CES, not paying attention to it at all for some reason, and pushing alternate bandwagons for terrible reasons. The Sotty bandwagon earlier today was a good example of that.

[Yosarian2]

chamber does a lot of talking about he isn't defending the people he keeps voicing concern about votes for etc

I've literally never voiced concern over CES votes.

You've been actively defending CES for basically the entire game, chamber. And not just against me, either. The fact that you're now trying to deny that just makes it look worse.

[Yosarian2]

Well I'm not moving my vote from Yosarian until deadline.

Nobody care what you think anymore, ABR. Either you're playing like an idiot, or you're scum. And the way you've avoided answering my questions about why you were defending CES so hard makes the "scum" part much more likely then i would have thought earlier in the game.

[Yosarian2]

Everyone look at this really, really closely.

When I asked Albert why he was defending CES, he said this:

It's plausible that CES is scum, I won't deny it. VitaminR as well. None of that changes the fact that you are scum, Yosarian. And I think you should go first.

But when PJ suggests that we focus on top 2 wagons (DGB or the CES wagons), Albert says:

PJ wants us to choose between two town players???

He JUST SAID that "CES could be scum" (in order to avoid having to explain why he was defending him so hard) and then he goes right back to defending him, saying CES is a "town player".

We have to lynch CES today. After CES flip scum, take a damn close look at Albert tommorow. Especially if I get nightkilled.

[Yosarian2]

VOTE: Yosarian

DGB, what are you doing? You know that I'm right and CES has to be scum. STAY ON TARGET

[Yosarian2]

Huh, one of my posts I made last night doesn't seem to be here, weird.

It was something like this:

I haven't been defending CES so much as I've been dismissing points against him that are just wrong. I'm unsure about his alignment, but I know him well enough to know that the things I called out as being alignment neutral were alignment neutral.

Chamber, when you "dismiss points against someone", when you argue that a scum tell against that person is actually null, that means you are defending that person. Anything that you do to try to reduce the odds of a person being lynched, or to respond to attacks against them, or whatever, is defending them, just like anything you do to go after a person or increase the chances of them being lynched is attacking them. There's nothing inherently scummy about either, of course. But usually people only defend people that they have a town read on, because if you defend someone and they flip scum, it looks really bad for you.

If you had a null read on him, why were you defending him so hard? I understand the arguments you were making, and I don't have a problem with them, but why did you choose to make them in defense of CES?

[Yosarian2]

There's no way you can be that sure that CES is scum. Or even LML. You show a lot more doubt than this when you're town. All your reads seem black and white. When have you even changed your mind on someone's alignment?

Ironically, I actually changed my mind of VitR's alignment; I thought he was scummy on day 1, then I changed my mind later when LML became obvscum. I even did have doubts about LML at first, although by the end of the day I was pretty damn sure he was scum.

I often have doubts. But not today. The fact that you, chamber, and VitR conjured a totally bullshit wagon on me out of your asses based on literally nothing just because I was close to lynching CES just confirms what I already knew.

Justice is on my side. Right is on my side. You're not going to get me lynched just out of force of will and bullshit and spamming the hell out of this thread, Albert. That works on some people, but it's not going to work against me. Not today, anyway. You are not going to derail this CES wagon, no matter how hard you try. He is going to die, and I think we both know he's going to flip scum. And then...well, then I guess we'll see what happens next.

[Yosarian2]

mathcam, does this sound like the Yosarian you know? No? Then why can't you switch your vote.

Lol. You know you've seen me like this before, Albert, when I have a scum in my sights and I'm not going to let him get away. I know we haven't played in a while, but I know damn well that you know my meta a hell of a lot better then you're pretending to right now.

[Yosarian2]

I'm never going to vote CES. I'll die before I vote for CES. Yosarian is not going to get away with this.

You'd better hurry up and bus CES, Albert. You're running out of time to do so in a way that might look convincing.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, it looks like Albert is now trying to set up the WIFOM defense, so tomorrow he can claim "I wouldn't have defended CES *THAT* hard if I knew he was going to flip scum." It worked for DGB on the LML wagon day 1, after all, and he's now doing almost the exact thing she was doing when she refused to vote LML on day 1.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, it doesn't matter what Albert does at this point, just keep it in mind for tomorrow.

CES is now 6 votes, which is lynch -3. Everyone else who's not scum needs to get over there right now; deadline is today, we don't have that much time left, and we don't know who is going to get a chance to get on again before deadline. If we no-lynch today, then I'm going to be pissed.

[Yosarian2]

lol please. I want you to be voted out so bad right now.

Not going to happen, scum. You're going to have to nightkill me.

Also, lol at your slip:

My prediction is that CES will flip scum if he's lynched.

[Yosarian2]

And now you're lying about the votecount? Wow.

All I can say is this:

My prediction is that CES will flip scum if he's lynched.

My prediction is that CES will flip scum if he's lynched.

My prediction is that CES will flip scum if he's lynched.

My prediction is that CES will flip scum if he's lynched.

My prediction is that CES will flip scum if he's lynched.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, stop. I'm with you for now, but you're not doing yourself any favors.

Sorry. It just pisses me off the way ABR thinks he can have his way by just spamming the hell out of the thread, when he has no case, no argument, and nothing else. My natural reaction is to not let him get away with that bullshit.

I guess I need to walk away from this thread for a while, scum-ABR is really getting under my skin, which I guess was his goal. But we need 3 more votes to lynch CES, and I'm couinting on you guys to do it.

(Although, you have to admit that that scum slip ABR just made where he accidentally said that he knows CES is scum was pretty damn funny.)

[Yosarian2]

So, you're accusing me of never changing my mind, and accusing me of changing my mind, in literally the same sentence?

Look, ABR, I tried to give you a chance to explain yourself, to explain your defense of CES. You refused to do so. You STILL haven't done so, even now, even after spamming dozens of times over the last ten pages. Of course that's going to change my opinion of you.

If someone had an ARGUMENT for why CES was town, I would listen. Literally no one has even tried to write one at this point, they've just done chainsaw defenses and spamming and bullshit. You, personally, defended CES, then denied you were defending him, then went right back to calling him town, and you STILL haven't explained that.

[Yosarian2]

We told you a million times that CES is lynchbait. He doesn't post much and doesn't betray any emotion.

That's not actually an argument for him being town, you know. That's at best a null argument.

If I were just wagoning him for "not posting much" or "not having much emotion", that would be a reasonable response. But there have to be scum on the bookitty wagon, and he's the only one that makes sense. There's the connection with LML on day 1. There's the general terrible quality of his voting history this game, and there's the opportunistic pattern of his voting in general. And then there's the whole process of elimination thing; there's still at least 4 scum in this game, and I have too many who seem obvtown at this point.

I've played with CES a ton of times. He makes short posts, he doesn't usually make cases; that's fine. I didn't have a problem with that, and it has nothing to do with the reason I think he's scum. However, while he makes short posts, I have a pretty high opinion of his scumhunting abilities and his play in general, and his play this game doesn't fit that. Nothing he's done this game seems very pro-town to me, that's not normal for him, whatever you say.

[Yosarian2]

There's no real case against CES, just Yosarian spouting rhetoric and PJ blindly following his master.

Still trying to discredit the masons, huh?

[Yosarian2]

Raise your hand if you think VitaminR is scum, and then if you raised your hand vote for him.

I would, but even with both of us, we'd need, what, 7 more votes? Something like that? I don't think there are even that many people online right now.

Same goes for the OGML voters. I don't really think he's scum, but in any case, it's not going to happen today. Get on a real bandwagon.

[Yosarian2]

Ugh. I do not understand how CES flipped town, or why Albert started acting so weird yesterday if CES was town, or how the whole end of the day yesterday went like that if CES was going to flip town. I really don't get this game at all.

What I do know is that now some of my town reads from earlier have to be wrong, which basically means I don't know anything. I'm going to have to do a ton of re-reading, and I really don't feel like it.

Well, I hope everyone who gave me shit about "buddying" CES realizes that I was totally right.

Vote: Yosarian2

Also, ABR, why have you changed your mind on me so much?

Well, at least VitaminR is still acting like scum, that's almost a relief; perhaps I wasn't wrong about everything.

VitaminR, at this point, I'm thinking the way you keep misrepresenting the case I made on you yesterday has got to be deliberate. You made me repeat it like half a dozen times, and now you're still pretending you don't know what it was?

You weren't being accused of "buddying" CES, you were being accused of buddying Chamber, as one fairly minor point against you in a much larger case. I'm sure you know that, so I have to wonder why you keep misrepresenting it?

[Yosarian2]

It would have meant that I maybe had misremembered your case or something, perhaps had confused it with something someone else said. Is that scummy?

Ok, is that your defense? Are you claiming you "misremembered" what i said? If my attacks on you are "unrelenting", and if you actually suspect me of being scum, then how can you at the same time be claiming you've forgotten what they are?

You voted for me, and now you're saying you don't remember what my case against you was in the first place? Do you often vote without looking at the posts of the player you're voting for, VitR?

[Yosarian2]

Bookitty only seems to post whenever it benefits Bookitty to show up. Have you ever given any thought to the possibility she might be scum and that there's no scum on her wagon because it's a successful D1 wagon on scum?

Frankly, I have trouble thinking of a game when both major day 1 wagons were on scum, without any wagons on town at all. Usually scum at least try to lynch someone else.

I'm not saying it's impossible, maybe the scum decided to just all bus each other on day 1 or something, but I'd put the odds at less then 10%.

[Yosarian2]

Like I said, some of my earlier town reads must be wrong, at least 2 of them, so I need to do some re-reading. The first person I'm wondering about is STD.

First thing that jumps out at me is his post 377, 393, ect. Now that I know undo is town, it almost feels like he's trying to cheerlead a fight between two townies. He kind of tries to have it both ways: he partly agrees with me, and then he partly calls me scummy (even though it's basically the same case he made earlier this game). It kind of sounds like he wants Undo to get lynched, but he wants me to get the blame for it.

The pattern of his LML votes are less impressive then my day 1 impression of them was. He didn't really support the wagon very hard.

He does get some town credit for defending Undo on day 2 before the claim, though.

It's hard to say much about a lot of STD's attacks during the course of the game, since we still don't know either Mathcam's alignment or DGB's.

Overall, I guess I'm going to move STD down into the null catagory; he could be scum at this point, or he could be town. If DGB flips scum, STD looks a lot better; if she flips town, he looks worse. I'm leaning towards her being town, I guess, but I'm really not sure at this point.

[Yosarian2]

God damn it. Thanks, Albert, you just chased our best scumhunter out of the game with your constant abuse.

[Yosarian2]

I brought in Juls to compensate for losing PJ, who was having a bad game anyway.

PJ's been right more often then you have been this game, Albert. We've only lynched one scum so far this game, and he was on the wagon when we lynched him; you weren't.

[Yosarian2]

So, you think OGML is scum because he had strong opinions right from the start?

I'm not sure that's a strong argument in this case, because I don't think I've ever seen OGML not have strong opinions.

[Yosarian2]

Right now, I'm looking at lynching either VitimanR or STD today. In a pinch, I might lynch DGB (she's been playing just horribly this game, all her reads are wrong; that's not normal for DGB when she's town) or Spyrex (still haven't gotten any real town-tells from this slot). Although DGB and STD aren't that likely to be scum together, since they've been at each other's throats all game; probably one of them is scum, but probably not both.

Beyond that, I'm not sure who the scumgroup could be. If VitR is scum, then chamber is likely town. Mathcam still looks town to me, although voting history is still a little dodgy. OGML is probably town. Unfortunately, Albert is still pretty likely to be town, although if he is he's also playing terribly this game. Porochaz is still pretty clearly town, as is Green Crayons. It's also extremely unlikely that Bookitty is scum.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian has a lot of gall to be criticizing DGB or me after the disastrous chaos he manufactured yesterday. Really.

I thought CES was going to flip scum, so I spent the last 48 hours of the day yesterday trying to figure out who, out of the people who had defended him (you, chamber, and VitR) was his buddy, by attacking all three of you, putting pressure on you, demanding answers, and generally trying to make it as difficult for you as possible to continue to try to have it both ways on CES. I wanted a hard answer on why you thought he, chamber, and VitR thought he was town, and I wanted it before the lynch happend. I went pretty far out on a limb there to try to get a reaction out of you three.

But saying that "I sewed chaos" is bullshit; you were the one trying to use spam and bullying to get me to unvote CES. If you had used logic and evidence instead, then I might have listened to you.

Anyway, so far this game, I was right about LML, right about PJ, right about UT, wrong about Undo, wrong about Glork, right about Sotty, and wrong about CES. You were nowhere on LML when it counted, wrong on PJ, wrong on UT, wrong on Sotty, and right about CES. If we're really keeping score on "who's right more often", then I think i'm still a few points ahead.

[Yosarian2]

If there is ONE scum, though, who would that scum be? It's not likely Bookitty... she's being wagoned! It's not likely mathcam... he's being wagoned!

Who is left???

STD

.

Well, or you. You were also on that bookitty wagon.

At this point, I'm really thinking that either you or STD is scum, but I'm not certain which one of you it is.

[Yosarian2]

It's interesting that you should point this out 15 minutes before Porochaz shows up, only for him to ignore all the trouble I've gone through to force your hands into bus'ing STD. You guys have daytalk?

I actually pointed out that either you or STD were scum long before you posted that.

So, just to be clear, you're admitting at this point that either you or STD has to be scum, right? So if we lynch STD and he flips town, you're scum?

[Yosarian2]

I thought CES was going to flip scum, so I spent the last 48 hours of the day yesterday trying to figure out who, out of the people who had defended him (you, chamber, and VitR) was his buddy, by attacking all three of you, putting pressure on you, demanding answers, and generally trying to make it as difficult for you as possible to continue to try to have it both ways on CES. I wanted a hard answer on why you thought he, chamber, and VitR thought he was town, and I wanted it before the lynch happend. I went pretty far out on a limb there to try to get a reaction out of you three.

Can you show me where you did this? I'm having a hard time viewing your attack on me through this lens.

Less on you, actually, since I already thought you were scum for other reasons.

I think it's quite obvious that all of my end of the day badgering of ABR was me trying to press him on the issue of CES, accusing him of being partners with CES to try to get a reaction, asking him questions about CES, ect. Starting from around here, and then my next 10 or so responses to ABR:

Anyway, explain this to me, Albert, because you're really not making sense at this point. What, exactally, has CES done this game that's making you so sure he's town? Why are you defending him so hard?

Point me to a post he's made that looks town-ish to you. Anything.

I'm never going to vote CES. I'll die before I vote for CES. Yosarian is not going to get away with this.

You'd better hurry up and bus CES, Albert. You're running out of time to do so in a way that might look convincing.

So, you're accusing me of never changing my mind, and accusing me of changing my mind, in literally the same sentence?

Look, ABR, I tried to give you a chance to explain yourself, to explain your defense of CES. You refused to do so. You STILL haven't done so, even now, even after spamming dozens of times over the last ten pages. Of course that's going to change my opinion of you.

If someone had an ARGUMENT for why CES was town, I would listen. Literally no one has even tried to write one at this point, they've just done chainsaw defenses and spamming and bullshit. You, personally, defended CES, then denied you were defending him, then went right back to calling him town, and you STILL haven't explained that.

And so on; I was trying to get a reaction from ABR in terms of CES, was trying to pressure him about CES, and was trying to get him to actually put his CES down in the thread in explicit terms. That was really the main goal I had in that whole back and fourth with ABR at the end of the day.

I did try to press you on this specific issue as well, while also attacking you on other points:

I happen to know CES quite well and I feel like there are way more town tells in his play so far than usual. He stuck his neck out to make a case against you Day 1, which he wouldn't do as scum (I noted this at the time). He also very quickly read chamber as town Day 1, in the same way that I did, which makes me think we're approaching the game the same way. The way he has reacted to ABR's case on me I think also fits more with him as town, but I'm less certain about that tell.

I defended them because I think they're town (still pretty sure about chamber,

maybe less about CES

), which comes from knowing them well.

What.

Now that it looks like CES might actually get lynched today, VitR is backtracking. While still pushing any alternate bandwagon he can find.

After we lynch CES today and he flips scum, VitR is his buddy.

And I pressed chamber on the issue, starting here:

Anyway, a ton of people are defending him incredibly hardcore

No they haven't been? Who other than VitR and weird Albert whims?

VitR, Albert, OGML:

I'm very anti CES lynch

You, of coursE:

CES's vote for undo was completely alignment neutral, I could have told you he would do that before he did.

And then there was this post, where CES's scum list was basically Seol+the 3 most townie-looking people in the game at the time, which was just bizzare:

You've misinterpreted both of those posts from CES if you think he was talking about scum reads in either.

I believe it was you who said that reading concise players was about reading them in context, not in isolation, did you do so when rereading CES?

A lot of other people are just flat out ignoring any case anyone makes against CES, not paying attention to it at all for some reason, and pushing alternate bandwagons for terrible reasons. The Sotty bandwagon earlier today was a good example of that.

chamber does a lot of talking about he isn't defending the people he keeps voicing concern about votes for etc

I've literally never voiced concern over CES votes.

You've been actively defending CES for basically the entire game, chamber. And not just against me, either. The fact that you're now trying to deny that just makes it look worse.

Huh, one of my posts I made last night doesn't seem to be here, weird.

It was something like this:

I haven't been defending CES so much as I've been dismissing points against him that are just wrong. I'm unsure about his alignment, but I know him well enough to know that the things I called out as being alignment neutral were alignment neutral.

Chamber, when you "dismiss points against someone", when you argue that a scum tell against that person is actually null, that means you are defending that person. Anything that you do to try to reduce the odds of a person being lynched, or to respond to attacks against them, or whatever, is defending them, just like anything you do to go after a person or increase the chances of them being lynched is attacking them. There's nothing inherently scummy about either, of course. But usually people only defend people that they have a town read on, because if you defend someone and they flip scum, it looks really bad for you.

If you had a null read on him, why were you defending him so hard? I understand the arguments you were making, and I don't have a problem with them, but why did you choose to make them in defense of CES?

I really wanted to see how each of the three of you would respond if, on the eve of CES's lynch, I made a bit point of pointing out the way you'd been defending him. I wanted to get an explanation for why you guys were defending him, I wanted it in black and white in the thread, as explicitly as possible, and I wanted it done before the lynch, instead of after. So then when he did flip scum, I would have a good idea of where to go next.

[Yosarian2]

Surprise! The scum is twisting my words.

It is STD that is listed in your role PM, with a good chance of Bookitty, and a remote chance of mathcam. ABR, chamber and myself are not mentioned in your role PM.

Your disingenuous push to create a dichotomy between myself and STD, but to lynch the townie first, and your buddy later, is noted.

If YOU want to pretend that you believe one of us must be scum, then vote STD.

I'm asking you a question, DGB, because I'm trying to get a read on you, because I'm trying to decide which one of you to lynch today. You're not helping yourself with this.

If we lynch STD today, and he flips town, we lynch you tomorrow. Do you understand that, or not?

[Yosarian2]

So, just to be clear, you're admitting at this point that either you or STD has to be scum, right? So if we lynch STD and he flips town, you're scum?

THIS

IS NOT

A QUESTION MEANT TO FIGURE OUT MY ALIGNMENT.

Of course it is. It's a trap, of course, and an obvious one. But if you are really as sure about STD's alignment as you claim to be, and if you're town, then you wouldn't care; you would call my "bluff" and walk right into the trap with a grin on your face.

If you're not sure, then we could just lynch VitR instead. Or we could lynch STD, but if we do and he flips town, we lynch you tomorrow. So, what do you think?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, I have to say, 3092 is pretty icky.

I know, it's one of those things you're never supposed to say in a mafia game. But in this case, I think it's actually true, and I really need to know what DGB's response is. If you want to attack me, don't do it until after she actually answers. Don't help her weasel out of this.

[Yosarian2]

Right now, I'm looking at lynching either VitimanR or STD today.

Hey Yosarian, how come you're saying that you want to lynch either VitaminR or STD today, but suddenly, if STD flips town, I should walk myself to the guillotine?

@ABR & everybody: do you guys see what I see?

I see you still not answering my question.

I really do want to lynch STD today, but only if you're town. If you're scum, then he has to be town. I said almost that exact same thing in that very post you keep quoting one section of, so don't pretend you don't understand it.

So why are you not answering such an easy question? According to your own logic, the logic you've been repeating over and over again since day 2, either you or STD has to be scum. Is that correct, or not?

If you want to back down from your earlier statements, this is your last chance to do so.