A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Mastermind of Sin]

Choose: Zoraster

[Mastermind of Sin]

Oooooh, we can vote, too?

Vote: Zoraster

Choose: Zoraster

=P

[Mastermind of Sin]

K, Plum is town.

Unchoose, Choose: Minimum

baaaaaaa

[Mastermind of Sin]

Gay. CES is clearly wrong about who we should choose but I don't think he's scum for holding that position.

Unchoose

[Mastermind of Sin]

aaaaaand I'm already annoyed by the roleplaying.

[Mastermind of Sin]

22) Pandora (Hydra)

wait...we have an anonymous hydra in this game? Fuck that shit.

[Mastermind of Sin]

aaaaaand I'm already annoyed by the roleplaying.

You're boring MoS. (And for someone who tends to annoy people in games just for the fun of it a little hypocritical.)

Also, I think it's fun that we have a Starbuck and someone with a totally different name but an av of Starbuck.

I only annoy people for the fun of it when provoked. Don't give me a reason.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote: Pandora

Choose: Pandora

Fuck anonymous hydras.

[Mastermind of Sin]

They are not anonymous, MoS, and if you bothered to read either them or the thread you'd realize their identity. Pandora is Quilford + Shadoweh, and your 'policy' reeks.

Mod should totes update the first post then.

It's bad enough that there are hydras at all in this game, but an anonymous one would be unforgivable.

Unvote

Unchoose

[Mastermind of Sin]

I find it curious that you have null reads on three of the weakest players in the game.


How sad that this thread would ignore redFF's scumminess. Minimum is a bad lynch and, moreover, we wouldn't want to ruin CES's record of not getting lynched, now would we?

UNCHOOSE: Feysal
CHOOSE: Minimum

This is a really bad post in pretty much every respect.

Didn't see this before, but I pretty much agree with cow.

Vote: Tierce

Choose: Tierce

[Mastermind of Sin]

molla stop being retarded.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I couldn't tell you much about what else Tierce has done b/c she's playing under a stupid alt and I have trouble connecting that on the fly. Can't really remember what else she has said, nothing else stood out to me.

That one post, though, has several things VERY wrong with it.

[Mastermind of Sin]

MOS: Tell my why this post you quoted is so bad, you can call me dumb if you want, but I don't get it.

I will, as soon as Mina reveals her reasons for thinking it's bad (tit for tat, as they say).

Since you seemed to miss a lot, how much of the game have you read.

Your guess is as good as mine.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Overwhelmed by the pace.

I thought this was pretty obvious. Then again, not that surprising that Tammy can't understand basic implications when she's trying really hard to paint someone as scummy.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Note to all games: I'm probably not going to post much (if at all) for the next 24 hours or so. I need to step away from the site for a bit. I'll reevaluate when I get back.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Mastermind of Sin

, I explained what bothered me about Tierce already. Look up my answer yourself. Since I only mentioned one issue, you can enlighten us on the others (as can Cow, while he's at it). However, that was pretty much the

only

thing that bothered me about Tierce--the rest of her play felt very protown. I can buy her explanation, so you voting and choosing her solely because Cow said he didn't like that post looks lazy and disingenuous.

You'd better quote it then, because I never saw it and I checked your ISO before I made my post earlier.

I thought this was pretty obvious. Then again, not that surprising that Tammy can't understand basic implications when she's trying really hard to paint someone as scummy.

Are you saying you have a scum read on Tammy? Do you believe that one quote in which she misinterpreted the word overwhelmed (which was a characterization of his play in a

completely different game

) is even remotely alignment-relevant?

Nope, that was just me being a dick to Tammy. Sorry about that.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Unvote, Vote: Shadow

Unchoose, Choose: Shadow

Coo coo kachoo!

MoS: Is that normal for MoS regardless of alligment?
I have seen him playing with short snippes at the beginning of the day as scum. (Link hope that works):

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=18732

(It also has Amrun and Quilfordtown and me as SK)

Man, I wish I bothered to try that hard on Day 1s anymore...that game took a lot more effort.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Thanks, Mina.

4) MoS:
In post 358, Minimum wrote:
Tierce, why did you vote to Choose us in the same post that you said we were a bad lynch? Yes, we'd be a better Choose than lynch, but you haven't mentioned a single negative thing about our slot until we became the leading lynch.

I thought it was implicit that I'd found it scummy.

Yea, I definitely have a problem with Choosing someone you'd object to lynching, as they should be essentially the same thing, because you should try to target scum for both.

That's not the only problem I had with it:

I find it curious that you have null reads on three of the weakest players in the game.


How sad that this thread would ignore redFF's scumminess. Minimum is a bad lynch and, moreover, we wouldn't want to ruin CES's record of not getting lynched, now would we?

UNCHOOSE: Feysal
CHOOSE: Minimum

1) Choosing someone that you call a bad lynch (as Mina pointed out)
2) Calling out redFF's scumminess, but then neither choosing nor voting him, instead Choosing someone else for a shit reason
3) The little joke flipped off at the end about CES's record of not getting lynched doesn't sit right with me either, but that's more of a gut thing.

If redFF ever flips scum, I'd bet money that this is Tierce as a scumbuddy here.

That said, I'm bored, so baaaaaaaa. Wake me up if we ever get back to Tierce-scum.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Cogito Ergo Mum: Call me paranoid maybe.

1) Choosing someone that you call a bad lynch (as Mina pointed out)
2) Calling out redFF's scumminess, but then neither choosing nor voting him, instead Choosing someone else for a shit reason
3) The little joke flipped off at the end about CES's record of not getting lynched doesn't sit right with me either, but that's more of a gut thing.
If redFF ever flips scum, I'd bet money that this is Tierce as a scumbuddy here.
That said, I'm bored, so baaaaaaaa. Wake me up if we ever get back to Tierce-scum.

1) My Minimum read, for the nth time, is the-power-of-sheeping-Regfan. And yes, I Choose differently than I Vote and I've explained why.
2) redFF was V/LA, and

I was voting him at the time.

3) So... why do you have a problem with me making jokes here, but never had an issue with me and Vi chatting each other up in Otherworld?

Yes, that was tremendously convincing. You're not even reading my posts, since you're blatantly ignoring this:

Blatantly?

Maybe I'm not the only one who isn't paying attention...

I couldn't tell you much about what else Tierce has done b/c she's playing under a stupid alt and I have trouble connecting that on the fly. Can't really remember what else she has said, nothing else stood out to me.

That one post, though, has several things VERY wrong with it.

This pretty much answers 1) and 2) for you. No, I wasn't aware that you'd explained your dumb idea about voting and choosing differently. No, I wasn't aware that you decided to sheep Regfan. *shrug* It's not like I felt strongly enough about my read to still be voting you.

As for 3), I didn't really notice you doing that in Otherworld because I largely tune out everything you say (which is why I didn't even notice the original post until Cow quoted it to point it out. It's not like we even really interacted very much in Otherworld, either, and I didn't see what you and Vi were doing as "chatting each other up". Hell, I'll even prove it for shits and giggles:

Tierce - Null read,

haven't really paid attention to her much

although the

fighting between her and Vi has been more annoying

than constructive

There is a difference between being lazy and just pushing shitty cases, which is what you were doing, given that you had no awareness of who I was voting.

The implication that I had no awareness of who you were voting is that I was being lazy, yet instead you accuse me of purposefully pushing shitty cases. Which is it, Tierce? Did I not know you were voting redFF, or did I purposefully ignore that fact? You can't have it both ways.

MoS's play is lol. Why vote and choose shadow? Seems redundant.

I don't see a good reason not to vote and choose the same person, since they should both be scum, and thus the options are equivalent to me. Once one is selected, I simply move my other vote/choose to a new person.

[Mastermind of Sin]

MoS is a good player when he deigns to pay attention to the game. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't throw a vig shot away on a bad target just because he's lazy when alive on D1. His laziness has several reasons, and while I disagree with them, I understand where it comes from and it's characteristic of his D1 play.

There are several things wrong with this statement:

1) You're assuming that if I get chosen I'll have paid enough attention to D1 to be able to make an informed decision about who to vig.
2) You've clearly never seen me with a vig role. I'm awful at it, usually because I spend so much time second-guessing myself inside my head.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Do you really think this is that viable a tell in a game you think is Multiball? Scum have every reason to scum-hunt in a Multiball environment. Personally I find it to be a “Not used to the noise” tell in Large games for players with no MS experience.

Who decided this game was Multiball?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Okay umm how about the hydras started acting like one slot instead of two mason/scumbuddies
This is mostly @DEdd, but also a bit about others

+1 to that, although I'd rather we just didn't have any hydras at all. Oh, what a life that would be. They can go right after the lame alt accounts.

[Mastermind of Sin]

If Feysal were scum, he would be more likely to be careful in the first few posts of the game to not speculate on something that he had inside knowledge of. That he talked about the possibility of multiball doesn't mean he for sure slipped as scum. And people who are claiming that it's bs that people are calling it a scum slip don't have to be scum either.

This makes sense, although I might have to go back and read Feysal's post for myself.

(probably won't, though)

[Mastermind of Sin]

Uhhh, who actually bothers to ISO a person before placing a vote? You kidding me? LoL...

That said, I did actually look at the vote count to see if you were voting redFF, but I just looked at the most recent one in 552 when I was responding to Mina. Didn't really think about you changing your vote, meh.

At this point no one speculated at anything relating to multiball, so coming off like that and saying it without saying something like "assuming" or something, yes, it's suspicious.

Hmm, yea. That's a little different from out-and-out speculating multiball, which is what I thought Tierce was referring to. Could be a scumslip, hard to tell with Feysal only having 7 posts, though.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I don't know, who would bother making sure that their 'case' is not total bullshit? Who would do check their facts when asked about it, instead of just making up stuff and hoping it sticks?

Oooh, I know the answer to this one! Scum would do this!

And do you know what was at the top of this page, from which you're saying that that vote was, in which you say I'm not applying the appropriate pressure on redFF?

Who said my vote was based on the redFF comment? I certainly didn't. I only noticed the redFF thing later.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Stop putting words in my mouth. I pointed out 3 things I found wrong with your post. Not all of them came to mind when I placed my vote, though, and I never claimed that they had. You're just making all sorts of assumptions, and we all know what happens when you assume.

Anyway, it's not like I went and did some sort of detailed analysis before voting you, that would just be silly and require a whole bunch of unnecessary effort. Point #1 is the reason I originally voted you. Points 2 and 3 happened later when I was talking about the post with Mina.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'm not even voting you lol

[Mastermind of Sin]

I still don't like the Minimum wagon, so I'm going to

Unvote, Vote: Shinori

to give a little competition for a better option.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Are you comfortable with a Choose vote on Shadow after who he said he'd vig?

I'm not basing my choose off who I think they're going to vig, so...yes?

[Mastermind of Sin]

At the point you cast this vote Shinori and SnowStorm were tied on five votes each. What do you think of SnowStorm? Don't think you've mentioned him as a town-read, or ... well, at all, yet. Can't see that you mentioned Shinori before, either. Why Shinori over SnowStorm? For that matter, why not try voting for Tyene? (She's the only person you've really talked about suspecting to date.)

Didn't even see the SnowStorm wagon. I could go for either one over Minimum.

Why would I continue to vote for Tierce after it's clearly been demonstrated that most of my case was based on mistaken facts? I'm not going to pretend that it's still a good case, even though I thought it was decent at the time I posted it, because I now know more than I did then. It wouldn't make sense to vote her at this point.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Are you comfortable with a Choose vote on Shadow after who he said he'd vig?

I'm not basing my choose off who I think they're going to vig, so...yes?

Interesting. You're just completely ignoring an important part of the event? Why?

Because if the person we're choosing is scum (which should be the goal), then they probably lied about who they're going to shoot anyway.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Sala: If you think MoI is scum then choose him. Who cares if he would shoot you if you catch a scumbag?

But I just said MoI is probtown, which is why I don't want him to shoot me.

Something about this post doesn't sit right with my gut. Hrmmm...

[Mastermind of Sin]

Unvote, Vote: Sala

[Mastermind of Sin]

Why does he have to be faking about the game going over his head to be scum? Just curious.

[Mastermind of Sin]

If he were scum, he'd be trying to look like he's making a real effort.

The copy-pasted reads list shows Salamence doesn't really care how he comes across, because he doesn't have anything to fear.

You think I'm scum because

why

?

lolno, Sala don't fake being VI because he is VI. There is alot of content here.

I'm not voting you for "faking being VI". I just wanted to know what led Tierce to make the conclusion that because you weren't faking being VI that you also weren't scum, because those two are not mutually exclusive. (I would know, I've been burned on that once or twice)

Yeah, because your play has been so much better. I'm atleast glad to see you're not voting and choosing the same person anymore.

Once again, I'm not voting you for bad play, so I hardly see how that's relevant.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Then what are you voting me for?

Gut, re: my previous post about it.

If I live past Night 1 maybe I'll be motivated to begin caring again. Until then I'll probably prod-dodge out the day so I don't have to see all the whining in thread.

MoI, when did you turn into me?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Unchoose, Choose: Feysal

[Mastermind of Sin]

MoI: what is your read on me, shinori, and MoS?

MoS: Gut is nothing. But ok

Gut is everything. Gut is more reliable than cases. I'd trust my gut over my brain ANY day.

MoS: What are your reads?

Don't have a list, per se.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Wait wait wait.... he doesn't post since post 83 other than a will post comment... and thats it... lol, this slot can die.

I really can't do much about the previous inactivity from my slot (other than be active now), but if you are so adamant about me dying why are you not voting for me? or anyone for that matter? (both your votes are on the "not voting" list.)

*snipe snipe*

[Mastermind of Sin]

I was going to sheep this SnowStorm wagon, then I decided against it.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I agree we need blood, I just don't think SnowStorm is scum atm. Not a strong read, but my gut doesn't like it.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'd take Sal over SnowStorm.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I actually feel like a newb here... Sometimes even at Westeros. It's your read on me that is wrong, Regfan. I don't know what else I can do to prove it. Yeah, I can scumhunt, that's easier said than done, and it's not like I've tried, but it seems most of you ignored it. In fact, I think most of the you are just parking your vote on the biggest wagons and relieved that the wagon is not on you.

This response right here is a really good reason not to lynch SnowStorm today.

P-Edit: Wow, you guys actually made him claim? *sigh*

[Mastermind of Sin]

No comment.

[Mastermind of Sin]

MoS you haven't done shit today... and everything I said was true.

There are better options out there, and there were before. You parking your vote on the largest wagon was a dumb move.

[Mastermind of Sin]

No comment.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Good thing I'm asking 24 other people besides you, heh, MoS?

They're not going to say anything either.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Exactly. Good to know you're town in this game, Tammy.

[Mastermind of Sin]

But for now i am more than comfortable with choosing him, and would vote him if his Vote wagon had any chances, he is more scummy than Salamance20.

CHOOSE Shadow1psc

Uhhh...Shadow had more votes than chooses...why the fuck would you be comfortable choosing him but lament the fact that he doesn't have enough votes to be a viable wagon?

In fact, to further illustrate this point, there are two vote wagons of 8 and 6 right now. There are also two choose wagons of 8 and 6. The competition for a Shadow wagon for both voting and choosing is

exactly

the same. The only difference is that Shadow has more votes than chooses. So why the fuck would you say his vote wagon had no chance and then go ahead and choose him, which by your own logic has even

less

of a chance at succeeding?

Unchoose, Choose: Kortul

Kill it with a fiery passion!

[Mastermind of Sin]

So let's vote Sala and choose Kortul. 2 for 2 D1s are hard to beat!

[Mastermind of Sin]

Nacho, convince me your Kortul scum-read isn't bullshit.

Regfan, convince me mine is.

[Mastermind of Sin]

MoS, read Post 1095, then explain to me why Kortul is scum.

At least one of your points ascribes Kortul waaaaaay more credit than I'm giving him...saying that he'd know better than to do something a certain way as scum doesn't hold a lot of weight with me.

Also, the possibility of multiball means that scum WOULD want to try and read people as scum AND town.

I'm not convinced.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Ugh. Scared scum or overwhelmed townie?

[Mastermind of Sin]

What the hell happened while I was gone?

Where did this DCLX wagon come from? I don't really understand why he's being wagoned here.

I'm a little skeptical of shadow's claim, but I'm not sure if I want to risk it Day 1. Shadow, what faction are you aligned with?

In the meantime...

Unchoose, Choose: Feysal

Unless I really don't like shadow's answers, I'm more comfortable with this choose today.

[Mastermind of Sin]

@Mina: Are you sure you didn't mean to address those questions to someone else? I haven't really said anything to indicate I thought the DCLX wagon was terrible...I just don't understand what caused it. In my skim of the last 8 pages or so I didn't really see a lot of reasoning for voting him, and I can't recall DCLX doing anything so far this game that would have made me even consider voting him. It's not so much that I have a town read on DCLX (I'm decidedly null due to lack of evidence in either direction as far as I've seen), but I don't understand what caused momentum to swing his way all of a sudden. The wagon built so quickly that it must have been some huge and obvious scumtell, but I don't recall seeing anything like that.

[Mastermind of Sin]

DCLXVI's meta claim is bullshit. Honestly, if I see a scum game of his in the near future where he opts to take the 'scum meta' catch-up post instead of what he is apparently aware is his 'typical town' catch-up style, there will be Issues with trust tells. If you're aware you do it, there's no freaking way you won't apply known town meta to scum games when possible (barring occasional subversions for certain situations). So yeah, I am most definitely not buying that. The Regfan bit sounds contrived, too.

That said, I'm inclined to believe most meta arguments the first time they are used, at least somewhat. Oftentimes I've found myself not to be consciously aware of a particular town meta of mine until someone accuses me of being scum for it, at which point I can point to my previous games as proof of the meta. After that point, however, if I remember I will probably try to adapt my scum play to absorb that town meta. The first time has more weight, though, imo.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Wait, StefanB soft-claimed Tyrion?

Unvote, Vote: StefanB

Kill it with fire.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Mina once again speaks wisely.

Unvote, Vote: Bvoight

L-2. Claim or die.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Ugh, I'm tempted to vote Sapo, but not willing to force yet another claim.

This is pretty much the only reason I'm going to

Unvote, Vote: StefanB

instead of voting Sapo right now.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Mina you have literally been reading my mind for the last few pages. I was thinking the very same thing while I was at lunch just now.

Unvote

[Mastermind of Sin]

Bvoigt is scum. Investigation returned

no active role

.

Then why are you not voting him? o.O

[Mastermind of Sin]

Also, what result would you get if you were roleblocked?

[Mastermind of Sin]

I was not blocked and I'm 100% sure I wasnt redirected.

You're avoiding the question.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Ok. You could have just said that the first time I asked instead of being cheeky. That kind of response is a good way to get people to second-guess your claim.

Vote: bvoigt

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'm not sure I like Benmage's idea to use the jailkeep as a doc ability...seems like a good way to render a PR useless for the night.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'm not sure I like Benmage's idea to use the jailkeep as a doc ability...seems like a good way to render a PR useless for the night.

Meh...or a good way to keep a strong town read alive who might otherwise be killed.

I think it's too risky...the only way to make this work would be for everyone to vote without revealing who they chose, and just *hope* that the majority choose a good target. If we made choices public, scum would just avoid killing them and it wouldn't be all that effective. If we make use this aggressively, we can try to target scum and use it to stop them from being able to kill tonight. With 1 scum down (and presumably another in bvoight), we have a lot of information to work with and imo should use this information aggressively to take advantage of the day's mechanic.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I misread shadows saying Staeg instead of BVO. I don't know why.

I'm fine with BVO lynch, however if Bvo flips town we look at staeg and shadows because of weird stuff i got in my pm last night.

##Vote: Bvo

o.O?

[Mastermind of Sin]

I find it curious that, for all practical effects, we only had a kill. DCLXVI's 'faction', whatever that means, knew who he was going to kill, obviously.

How? Maybe DCL wasn't allowed any more communications with his scumteam?

If they do have day talk as Z(?) suggested, that would have been planned before day ended most likely.

Not to mention that DCLX would probably still be able to see the QT to see who his team was planning to kill, at least.

[Mastermind of Sin]

This is still bothering me. Why the masons? They were not being particularly useful, leading visibly, etc. They were not typical N1 kills, even for a team that could afford to off the two of them at once, if that is the case.

I would guess any/all of the following:

1) bvoigt's scumteam was afraid to kill shadow for fear of protective roles, so they decided to off the masons while they had the chance

2) bvoigt's scumteam tried to kill shadow and failed, and a different scumteam killed the masons because they didn't care if shadow targeted bvoigt.

Either of those easily explain the mason deaths, although there's probably more to it that we don't know. I wouldn't say their deaths were *completely* unexpected, though. It does lead me to believe that the scumteam who actually killed the masons are not particularly aggressive players, for whatever that's worth, because they took the safe choice over trying to find a stronger PR.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Why would you even bother to say something like that, BBmolla? Dumbass.

[Mastermind of Sin]

TBH it was pretty obvious they were masons. Anyone who still thought they were faking is pretty dumb imo.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Err no, I meant it was pretty obvious they were masons yesterday...before greenknight even claimed I was pretty convinced SnowStorm was telling the truth. That's why I tried to prevent the mason buddy from claiming and providing the scum with multiple kill targets...

[Mastermind of Sin]

We need like a billion prods please.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Seems like more than that.

[Mastermind of Sin]

While I don't have a problem with this vote, it comes at an odd time - Plum had just presented the case against bvoigt - and it seems to go against the flow of the game.

Wait, what?

Plum's case wasn't even on the same

page

...are you kidding me? I voted Sala as a counter to the Minimum wagon (and still think that slot is scum, by the way), there wasn't even a bvoigt wagon at that point. I didn't even

see

Plum's case at that time...how the fuck could I have been purposefully acting against it? How the hell did you think this was a remotely plausible connection?

[Mastermind of Sin]

I think MoI mentioned that you request them?

[Mastermind of Sin]

I know why it makes sense and is good to take out masons, but I did not expect it in this case. Confirmed town really doesn't mean a whole lot except for in terms of Poe, and when confirmed town isn't really doing much in a game they are not a danger to the scum team. In a game that is likely to be heavily roled they went for masons instead of taking a chance on town power, or on known (likely) town power with shadow.

Which is why the mason deaths are good information for figuring out who would have made such timid choices...

[Mastermind of Sin]

A no lynch would have been better, yes.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Wait, what?

Plum's case wasn't even on the same page...are you kidding me? I voted Sala as a counter to the Minimum wagon (and still think that slot is scum, by the way), there wasn't even a bvoigt wagon at that point.

I didn't even see Plum's case at that time...

how the fuck could I have been purposefully acting against it? How the hell did you think this was a remotely plausible connection?

Since when do things have to be on the same page to happen close to one another? It was on the next page.

Why did you ignore Plumamma's case?

I'm starting to think you didn't even read my post...let me bold it again for you.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Thats not how benmagescum operates.

OMG SELF-META CLEARLY CAN'T BE TRUSTED

[/sarcasm]

[Mastermind of Sin]

And as long as Lyanna/Tyene/Magna/Shadow/Plesszar/Pandora/Sapororerint/BB/Zdenek/Shinori/Feysal/Albert are not lynched, I don't think it can turn bad for town.

Only about half of this list is accurate. Please try again.

[Mastermind of Sin]

EBWOP: Regfan's version is better, but I'd pull Pless and Sapo off there as well, because I'm not sure on Pless yet and Sapo is still pretty likely scum.

[Mastermind of Sin]

It just seems a waste of a mechanic that might help us avoid a night-kill, because if we decide on it in public, scum will just kill someone else. And for what? Shinori reads townish, and that "I have something important to talk about" seemed townish as well, but frankly if the alternative is for him to be the jail target, I'd just rather he outed his info now and the jailing be kept private.

This.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I don't really think there's a good way to answer that question without more information from claims/flips...it's too early to tell.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I don't have much to say other than that Pless's strong scumreads list looks great, but the weak scumreads list just looks like reads they can't convince themselves to let go of.

Sapo is pretty obviously scum (as I've been saying for a while now), so this doesn't change anything. Take them out tomorrow after bvoigt.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Sorry, been busy with other games lately (two that I'm modding are about to start), so I didn't get my choice in yet. It's in now.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Last visited:
12 Sep 2012 22:47:13

Please die.

Yes.

[Mastermind of Sin]

WIFOM is so much fun.

Yeah but it only works when you do it right ...

This isn't an example. Better luck next time!

Yea...I'm pretty sure bvoigt doesn't actually have the balls to call out one of his actual scumpartners in those posts.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Could you explain your jailvotes, Feysal and MoS?

I got outvoted on how to use the jailvote, so as to make my vote hopefully actually matter, I picked someone I had relatively high on my town list, aka Minimum.

Staeg is by almost all accounts likely some sort of Role-Cop and made up the "Frey Cop" claim in a panic knowing his links to bvoigt (which I pointed out yesterday) were strong. No chance in hell he is getting Godhanded.

In panic? I was well aware that if I wasn't getting lynched today, then tomorrow. I had 2-3 nights/days to plan for this. What the hell are you trying to say?

Something about this response reads "I've been preparing my fakeclaim for 2-3 days now, how dare you claim that I panicked!" It's a common response for scum to get indignant about being called scum for something that doesn't actually apply, even though they are actually still scum.

Vote: Staeg

Godhand: Plum, MoI, Tierce, Feysal

[Mastermind of Sin]

Godhand: Plum's Yo Mamma

[Mastermind of Sin]

It's happening

Actually, it's pretty much the opposite as far as I'm concerned. Your recent activity has made me more sure you're town, as opposed to other games I've played with you recently where you were a cheeky scumfuck who didn't give two shits about the game.

[Mastermind of Sin]

There was no strategy. I had no idea who was likely to gather votes other than Shinori, and I did not want to vote him because I was fairly sure no scum would try to kill him for that precise reason. I would have been fine with any of my town reads being jailkept, and you had risen to strong town at the end of day one, so I picked you. I was not really aware how many people thought the same, or how many did not.

Basically this.

Whoops, that was me.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Mastermind of Sin - It's Day 3, and I literally have zero impression on MoS. Worrisome, but

going through his ISO in brief shows similar reads to mine

, so, pass for now.

(Emphasis mine)

This confuses me, since the most prominent read I have that is still alive is on Minimum, who I think is town. I'd think that would be fairly obvious from even a cursory read through my ISO.

I also think Tierce is probably town (don't think scum would have questioned the mason kills so strongly...just reads weird from anything but a town perspective), but that read was probably less obvious.

So...which reads exactly do you think we agree on?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Kinda swamped with personal stuff right now...going to try and find time to do analysis over the weekend.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Spoiler: Day 1 Major Wagons (in sequence)

Starbuck (7) -

Dolorous Edd

, Tyene Sand

Staeg

, Minimum, Plum's Yo Mamma, Feysal, redFF

Feysal (4) -

Dolorous Edd

,

Salamence20

,

StefanB

, BBmolla
Minimum (4) - Pandora, Regfan, Tyene Sand, Plum's Yo Mamma

Feysal (5) -

Dolorous Edd

,

Salamence20

,

StefanB

, BBmolla, Pandora
Minimum (3) - Regfan, Tyene Sand, Plum's Yo Mamma

Shadow1psc

(6) - BBmolla,

StefanB

,

MagnaofIllusion

, Plum's Yo Mamma, Benmage, Mastermind of Sin

Minimum (8) -

MagnaofIllusion

,

Salamence20

, Hasdgfas, Lyanna Stark,

StefanB

, Benmage,

greenknight

, Shinori

Feysal (5) -

Dolorous Edd

,

Salamence20

,

bvoigt

,

greenknight

, Shinori

Shadow1psc

(4) - BBmolla,

MagnaofIllusion

, Plum's Yo Mamma, Mastermind of Sin

SnowStorm

(10) -

Plessiezarus

, Regfan, Tyene Sand, Feysal, Jal, Shinori,

MagnaofIllusion

, Pandora, BBmolla, kortul

Salamence20

(5) - Amrun, Minimum,

bvoigt

, Mastermind of Sin,

Shadow1psc

SnowStorm

(5) - Regfan, Feysal, Jal, Shinori,

MagnaofIllusion

Salamence20

(5) - Amrun, Minimum,

bvoigt

, Mastermind of Sin,

Shadow1psc

bvoigt

(7) - Plum's Yo Mamma,

greenknight

,

SnowStorm

,

Dolorous Edd

, Benmage, Tyene Sand, Pandora

Feysal (8) -

Salamence20

,

bvoigt

,

greenknight

, Shinori, Mastermind of Sin,

DCLXVI

,

Dolorous Edd

, Benmage

greenknight

(6) - Plum's Yo Mamma, Minimum, Tyene Sand, Pandora,

Plessiezarus

, BBmolla

Saporerint

(8) - Minimum,

bvoigt

, Mastermind of Sin,

Shadow1psc

, BBmolla, Shinori, Regfan, Albert B. Rampage

bvoigt

(10) - Plum's Yo Mamma,

greenknight

,

SnowStorm

,

Dolorous Edd

, Tyene Sand, Pandora,

MagnaofIllusion

, Seraphim,

StefanB

, kortul

Feysal (10) -

Saporerint

,

bvoigt

,

greenknight

, Shinori,

DCLXVI

,

Dolorous Edd

, Benmage, Albert B. Rampage, Pandora,

SnowStorm

greenknight

(9) - Plum's Yo Mamma, Minimum, Tyene Sand,

Plessiezarus

, kortul, Seraphim,

MagnaofIllusion

, Regfan, Feysal

Saporerint

(6) -

bvoigt

, Mastermind of Sin,

Shadow1psc

, BBmolla, Shinori, Albert B. Rampag

Shadow1psc

(8) - Lyanna Stark, Benmage, kortul, Minimum,

Dolorous Edd

,

Saporerint

, Mockingjaye, Plums Yo Mamma

bvoigt

(8) -

greenknight

,

SnowStorm

, Tyene Sand, Pandora,

MagnaofIllusion

, Seraphim,

StefanB

,

Plessiezarus

Feysal (9) -

bvoigt

,

greenknight

, Shinori,

DCLXVI

, Benmage, Albert B. Rampage,

SnowStorm

,

Dolorous Edd

,

Saporerint

DCLXVI

(9) - Tyene Sand,

Plessiezarus

, Minimum, Regfan, Pandora, Feysal, Lyanna Stark, Kortul, Plums Yo Mamma

Saporerint

(5) - Mastermind of Sin,

Shadow1psc

, BBmolla, Shinori, Albert B. Rampage

Shadow1psc

(13) - Lyanna Stark, Benmage, kortul, Minimum,

Dolorous Edd

,

Saporerint

, Mockingjaye, Plums Yo Mamma,

Staeg

,

MagnaofIllusion

,

bvoigt

, Tyene Sand,

StefanB

bvoigt

(5) -

greenknight

,

SnowStorm

, Pandora, Seraphim,

Plessiezarus

Feysal (8) -

bvoigt

,

greenknight

, Shinori,

DCLXVI

, Benmage, Albert B. Rampage,

SnowStorm

,

Saporerint

DCLXVI

(12) - Tyene Sand,

Plessiezarus

, Minimum, Regfan, Pandora, Feysal, Lyanna Stark, Kortul, Plums Yo Mamma,

Staeg

,

Dolorous Edd

,

StefanB

Shadow1psc

(2) - Mockingjaye,

bvoigt

bvoigt

(9) -

greenknight

,

SnowStorm

, Pandora, Seraphim,

Plessiezarus

,

MagnaofIllusion

, Plums Yo Mamma,

Dolorous Edd

,

Staeg

Feysal (7) -

greenknight

, Shinori, Benmage, Albert B. Rampage,

Saporerint

, Mastermind of Sin, Jal

DCLXVI

(15) - Tyene Sand,

Plessiezarus

, Regfan, Pandora, Feysal, Lyanna Stark, Kortul, Plums Yo Mamma,

Staeg

,

Dolorous Edd

,

SnowStorm

,

Shadow1psc

,

bvoigt

,

DCLXVI

,

MagnaofIllusion

bvoigt

(8) -

SnowStorm

, Seraphim, Plums Yo Mamma,

Dolorous Edd

, Shinori, Feysal,

Shadow1psc

, Minimum

StefanB

(15) - Regfan, Tyene Sand,

Saporerint

, kortul,

DCLXVI

,

bvoigt

,

Staeg

, Mockingjaye,

MagnaofIllusion

,

greenknight

, BBmolla, Pandora, Jal, Lyanna Stark,

Plessiezarus

There's a LOT of information here, especially with both votes and chooses going on at the same time. I'm going to try to decipher this by assigning positive and negative points to players based on various voting actions they took in relation to our flipped scum.

Spoiler: Point Assignment

Players who voted/chose with the Aegon Faction

(-1 for each major wagon):

BBmolla (-3), Pandora (-4), hasdgfas/ABR/Magua (-3), Tammy (-4), Benmage (-2), Shinori (-3), Amrun/Zdenek (-1), Minimum (-2), Mastermind of Sin (-2), Regfan (-3), kortul (-3), Mockingjaye (-2), Plums Yo Mamma (-2), Tierce (-3), Jal (-2), Feysal (-1)

Players who never voted/chose with the Aegon Faction on a major wagon

(-2 for completely avoiding both of them somehow):

Starbuck/Scumhunter (-2)

Players who voted/chose the Aegon Faction

(+1 for each major wagon, +1 for being in the first 5, +1 for tipping the balance against an opposing wagon, +1 for countering a town wagon):

Amrun/Seraphim/Zdenek (+4), Minimum (+4), Mastermind of Sin (+3), Plums Yo Mamma (+3), Benmage (+3), Tierce (+2), Pandora (+2), BBmolla (+1), Shinori (+1), Regfan (+1), ABR/Magua (+1), kortul (+1)

Players on a wagon counter to the Aegon Faction wagons

(-2 for each major wagon):

Tammy (-4), Benmage (-2), kortul (-4), Minimum (-2), Mockingjaye (-4), Plums Yo Mamma (-2), Regfan (-2), Tierce (-2), BBmolla (-2), Pandora (-2), Jal (-2)

Players who voted/chose with the Stannis Faction

(-1 for each major wagon):

Shinori (-1), Mastermind of Sin (-1), Benmage (-1), ABR/Magua (-1), Pandora (-1)

Note: Interestingly enough, the only major wagon DCLXVI was ever on was the Feysal Choose wagon.

Players who voted/chose the Stannis Faction

(+1 for each major wagon, +1 for being in the first 5, +1 for tipping the balance against an opposing wagon, +1 for countering a town wagon):

Tierce (+2), Minimum (+2), Regfan (+2), Pandora (+2), Tammy (+1), kortul (+1), Plums Yo Mamma (+1)

Players on a wagon counter to the Stannis Faction wagons

(-2 for each major wagon):

Shinori (-2), Benmage (-2), ABR/Magua (-2), Mastermind of Sin (-2), Jal (-2)

You can skip to the summary below if you don't want to read through the gritty details, but I've included them above for the curious. It's not a perfect system, but we'll see how it ends up.

Spoiler: Points Summary (Negative is scummier)

Aegon Scores:

Tammy (-8)
kortul (-6)
mockingjaye/4nxiety (-6)
BBmolla (-4)
Jal (-4)
Pandora (-4)
Regfan (-4)

Tierce (-3)
hasdgfas/ABR/Magua (-2)
Shinori (-2)
Starbuck/Scumhunter (-2)
Benmage (-1)
Feysal (-1)
Plums Yo Mamma (-1)
Minimum (0)
Mastermind of Sin (+1)
Amrun/Seraphim/Zdenek (+3)

Stannis Scores:

Benmage (-3)
hasdgfas/ABR/Magua (-3)
Mastermind of Sin (-3)
Shinori (-3)

Feysal (0)
Jal (0)
Magua (0)
Scumhunter (0)
Zdenek (0)
kortul (+1)
Pandora (+1)
Plums Yo Mamma (+1)
Tammy (+1)
Minimum (+2)
Regfan (+2)
Tierce (+2)

Note: The lack of DCLXVI actions on major wagons leads me to believe these numbers might not be all that useful for finding Stannis faction scum.

Conclusions from Day 1:

Feysal is town, based on the chooses in post 1182.

Mockingjaye looks bad for being left voting Shadow with bvoigt by herself.

Zdenek and Minimum are almost definitely not

Aegon

faction.

Our remaining

Aegon scum

are most likely in this group:

Tammy, kortul, 4nxiety, BBmolla, Jal, Pandora, Regfan

At least one

Stannis scum

is in this group:

Benmage, Magua, Shinori

(obviously I know it's not me)

I'm going to go back and look more closely at the ISOs of the players listed above to see if I can narrow it down a bit more.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I forgot about one major thing for the points assignment...oops. (Also forgot to put BBmolla and Mockingjaye on one of the summary lists, lol...)

Spoiler: Point Assignment

The following players were on a major town wagon

(-1 for each wagon):

BBmolla (-4), Plums Yo Mamma (-3), Benmage (-2), Mastermind of Sin (-1), Regfan (-3), Tierce (-3), Feysal (-2), Jal (-2), Shinori (-1), Pandora (-3), kortul (-3), Minimum (-2), Seraphim/Zdenek (-1), Tammy (-2), Mockingjaye/4nxiety (-3)

Spoiler: Points Summary (Negative is scummier)

Since this category applies to either scumgroup, I've subtracted the numbers from both scores.

Aegon Scores:

Tammy (-10)
kortul (-9)
mockingjaye/4nxiety (-9)
BBmolla (-8)
Pandora (-7)
Regfan (-7)
Jal (-6)
Tierce (-6)

Plums Yo Mamma (-4)
Benmage (-3)
Feysal (-3)
Shinori (-3)
hasdgfas/ABR/Magua (-2)
Minimum (-2)
Starbuck/Scumhunter (-2)
Mastermind of Sin (0)
Amrun/Seraphim/Zdenek (+2)

Stannis Scores:

Benmage (-5)
BBmolla (-4)
Mastermind of Sin (-4)
Shinori (-4)
hasdgfas/ABR/Magua (-3)
mockingjaye/4nxiety (-3)

Feysal (-2)
Jal (-2)
kortul (-2)
Pandora (-2)
Plums Yo Mamma (-2)
Tammy (-2)
Regfan (-1)
Tierce (-1)
Zdenek (-1)
Magua (0)
Scumhunter (0)
Minimum (0)

Note: The lack of DCLXVI actions on major wagons leads me to believe these numbers might not be all that useful for finding Stannis faction scum.

Adjusted Conclusions:

Aegon Faction

possible:

Tammy, kortul, 4nxiety, BBmolla, Pandora, Regfan, Jal, Tierce

Stannis Faction

possible:

Benmage, Shinori, BBmolla, Magua, 4nxiety

Off for lunch, then back for individual looks at these players.

[Mastermind of Sin]

It's not a perfect system (and I've never tried it before, just made it up today lol), but that's why I awarded more points based on how/when people voted scum. For the record, bvoigt would have scored a -2 overall just based off the information of Sapo being Aegon scum, I believe. Sapo would have scored a -4 for being scum with bvoigt. I'm not really sure how that would stack up against other players, since those scores were calculated against both scum, but I imagine that both of them (Sapo almost certainly) would be in the upper echelon of Aegon scum.

However, I'm not sure why you question why bvoigt would have gotten some positive points for voting Sapo and then turn around and bring up the fact that they might not have known they were scumbuddies. Those points seem contrary to each other.

Regardless, the points system is just a guideline for further analysis, it's not the end result. I'm still working on my continuation post.

P-Edit: BBmolla that's because you suck at this game.

[Mastermind of Sin]

So, I started out doing ISOs and then I got lazy and didn't do it that closely for everyone. I might go back over the people who still stand out after this analysis, though.

Spoiler: Continued Analysis

Tammy:

Major wagons -

Unflipped Players: Minimum

Town Players: Shadow1psc, StefanB

Scum Players: DCLXVI

Not a great voting/choose history...it looks like she started out voting Minimum and then Chose Shadow...then voted Shadow and Chose Minimum. Why the flip?

Closer inspection reveals that this was the entirety of Tammy's record for Day 1...she only voted or chose those 4 players throughout the course of the day. She was early on the Minimum/Shadow wagons, middle of the DCLXVI wagon, and was early on the StefanB wagon, only to unvote and then revote as the L-1 vote.

VCA Conclusion:

Doesn't look good, could be scum.

kortul:

Major wagons -

Unflipped Players:

Town Players: SnowStorm, greenknight, Shadow1psc, StefanB

Scum Players: bvoigt, DCLXVI

This looks worse than Tammy's record, I think. Kortul was late on the SnowStorm and bvoigt wagons, but was early on Shadow1psc and StefanB. Finally, he was in the middle of the greenknight and DCLXVI wagons.

VCA Conclusion:

Definitely scummy. I'm not sure if there's anything here that tells me if he's more likely to be Aegon or Stannis faction, so I'll have to come back to that. Edit: Noticed that he called Sala/Sapo scummy but never voted them...could be distancing? Not sure what to make of his ISO 18, though.

mockingjaye:

Major wagons -

Unflipped Players:

Town Players: Shadow1psc, StefanB

Scum Players:

This is pretty sketch, but fairly light on useful information as well. Still don't like that she and bvoigt were the last ones on Shadow at the end of his wagon. She was in the middle of both town wagons, and both times voted in close proximity to an Aegon scum (right after Sapo on Shadow, 2 after bvoigt on StefanB)

VCA Conclusion:

Could very well be scum, but need more information. The strongest tell is her association with how the other scum voted.

BBmolla:

Major wagons -

Unflipped Players: Feysal

Town Players: Shadow1psc, SnowStorm, greenknight, StefanB

Scum Players: Saporerint

Was on pretty much every major town wagon, so that's a big point against him. However, I can't shake the feeling I've had this game that BBmolla is town. He never posts a lot of useful content regardless of alignment, but he disappears from the thread a lot more frequently as scum than he has this game. There's also the info on the Aegon faction he gave us in his favor.

VCA Conclusion:

Neutral leaning town slightly, but IGMEOY. May have to revisit this at some point. If scum, probably not Aegon faction, unless Sapo was a scumbuddy and he didn't know it (but then why would he have volunteered that information?). Not going to hurt my head being all paranoid right now.

Pandora:

Major wagons -

Unflipped Players: Minimum, Feysal

Town Players: SnowStorm, greenknight, StefanB

Scum Players: bvoigt, DCLXVI

Was first on the Minimum wagon but switched to Feysal when the wagons were equal...could be important if one of them comes up scum later. Late on the SnowStorm wagon, then follows the shift of votes onto bvoigt. Stayed on bvoigt even when the Shadow wagon came up. Was relatively early on the DCLXVI wagon as well. Late on the StefanB wagon (L-3).

VCA Conclusion:

Positioning and timing for their votes on the scum wagons make Pandora less likely to be scum. Neutral read, leaning town. In other news, fuck hydras.

Regfan:

Major wagons -

Unflipped Players: Minimum

Town Players: SnowStorm, greenknight, StefanB

Scum Players: Saporerint, DCLXVI

Was very early on the Minimum, SnowStorm, DCLXVI, and StefanB wagons, but late on greenknight (which doesn't mean much until the Feysal flip) and Saporerint.

VCA Conclusion:

Could be scum, vote positioning is pretty aggressive on the major wagons. If scum, probably Aegon aligned. However, we still don't know if Sapo and bvoigt knew they were buddies, so the fact that Regfan only joined the Sapo wagon after the bvoigt wagon was leading only makes sense if Regfan was buddies with bvoigt but didn't know about Sapo. I haven't really had a scummy read on him outside of this VCA, so I need more information to make a solid conclusion. Neutral leaning scum slightly.

Jal:

Major wagons -

Unflipped Players: Feysal

Town Players: SnowStorm, StefanB

Scum Players:

Was late on the Feysal wagon, after DCLXVI was leading in votes. Middle of the SnowStorm wagon and late on StefanB (L-2).

VCA Conclusion:

Could be with either scumgroup, but leaning slightly toward Stannis based on the final Choose wagon.

Tierce:

Major wagons -

Unflipped Players: Starbuck/Scumhunter, Minimum

Town Players: SnowStorm, greenknight, Shadow1psc, StefanB

Scum Players: bvoigt, DCLXVI

Was early on both the Starbuck and Minimum wagons, then she was early on the SnowStorm and greenknight wagons. She was on the middle of the bvoigt wagon, and then jumped off to be late on the Shadow wagon (voted him right after bvoigt did). She was early on the DCLXVI and StefanB wagons as well.

VCA Conclusion:

It's pretty odd that she was early on pretty much every major wagon she was part of except for bvoigt's and shadow's, which built up right after bvoigt's wagon. Not sure what to make of it, though, since I'd expect she'd have taken the chance to switch to shadow much sooner if she was partners with bvoigt. Neutral leaning scum based on VCA at this point.

Benmage:

Major wagons -

Unflipped Players: Minimum, Feysal

Town Players: Shadow1psc

Scum Players:

Was late on the early Feysal Choose wagon and pretty much just left it there for most of the remaining day. Was relatively early on the Shadow wagon that built in response to the Aegon wagons.

VCA Conclusion:

Hasn't done much with his vote, stayed away from all 3 flipped scum and was early on Shadow's counterwagon. Could be scum with either faction, and the closer look makes me want to put him more possible as Aegon than Stannis even though the numbers said otherwise.

Shinori:

Major wagons -

Unflipped Players: Feysal

Town Players: SnowStorm

Scum Players: Saporerint, bvoigt

Voted Sapo counter to the bvoigt wagon, and voted bvoigt counter to the StefanB wagon. Without knowing which parts of the Aegon faction know each other it's hard to decipher this, although you could say that both votes came late enough that they didn't really help the wagon all that much. If Aegon, almost definitely knew bvoigt was scum, dunno about Sapo. Chose Feysal early and stayed there for pretty much the rest of the day, which doesn't look good with the DCLXVI flip.

VCA Conclusion:

In spite of the PR claim, his vote/choose history is pretty sketch and there is evidence that points to either scumteam, although I'd more readily say Shinori is Stannis faction, since the Aegon situation is a bit murky.

hasdgfas/ABR/Magua:

Major wagons -

Unflipped Players: Minimum, Feysal

Town Players:

Scum Players: Saporerint

VCA Conclusion:

I don't really know what to make of this slot, it's gone through so many players that I don't think any conclusions can be made off this little amount of information.

Revised Potential Scum:

Aegon Faction

:

kortul, Tammy, 4nxiety, Benmage

Other possible: Shinori, Jal, Regfan, Tierce, Magua

Stannis Faction

:

kortul, Jal, Shinori

Other Possible: 4nxiety, Benmage, Tammy, Magua

Interesting Notes:

In post 1407, bvoigt has 9 votes, 6 of which have already flipped town. There's a high chance that at least one of Pandora, Magua, or Plums Yo Mamma are scum.

The final DCLXVI wagon had 15 votes, 6 of which have flipped town, 2 of which were late scum votes. Additionally, the last 7 votes on DCLXVI are now dead, which leaves the early voters still alive. That means it's likely one or more of Tierce, Regfan, Pandora, Feysal, Tammy, kortul, and Plums Yo Mamma are scum.

In Post 1010, we have three major wagons on flipped players, 1 town and 2 scum. There's a decent possibility that an Aegon scum is in the group of Regfan, Feysal, Jal, and Shinori that were still keeping the SnowStorm wagon alive as two Aegon wagons were countering it.

The following players are of note when cross-referenced with the above lists:

Magua, Tierce, Regfan, Tammy, kortul, Jal, Shinori

. Plums Yo Mamma is of mild interest for showing up in two of my notes, even though they didn't score low in the previous analysis, so I went back and looked at them a bit further.

Spoiler: Bonus Analysis

Plums Yo Mamma:

Major wagons -

Unflipped Players: Starbuck/Scumhunter, Minimum

Town Players: Shadow1psc, greenknight

Scum Players: bvoigt, DCLXVI

Very early on greenknight, middle of the Shadow wagon. Was early on bvoigt, then left for the Shadow wagon, then went back to bvoigt and stayed there. Was middle of the DCLXVI wagon.

VCA Conclusion:

If scum, probably not Aegon faction due to sticking with the bvoigt wagon when the StefanB option sprang up.

Kortul, Tammy, Jal, Shinori, and Magua

showed up on pretty much every list (which were created from independent reasons), so that's where I'd look first for scum.

Vote: kortul

for showing up high on all the lists, he could very well be with either faction so I think that's the best place to start.

P-Edit: I don't think the points system can be adjusted for a possible split within the Aegon faction. I think you just have to take that (and possible bussing as well) into account when you look more closely at players individually (I certainly tried to think about those possibilities in my continued analysis). The idea behind the points system is to keep the values low so that if a scum player manages to do one thing that makes them slightly more likely to be town (such as bussing), those positive points can be outweighed by something else they do that is scummy (such as vote clumping or being on town wagons). It's very hard for scum players to avoid doing scummy things when you look at it from so many angles. Now, perhaps a case could be made for there to be more categories under which we assign points, but I feel like this initial run gave me a good idea of who I wanted to look more closely at.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Which, coincidentally, I agree with. But you probably didn't read past the fact that you scored horribly to realize I think you're town, lol...

[Mastermind of Sin]

Like fuck I'm going to read 98 pages in-depth. I don't have that kind of time, and so the list of things I focus on has to be narrowed down in a fashion that takes far less time.

That said, you're misquoting me and not really looking at the point of what I said. In general, I believe that actions reveal motivations, and that you can't make conclusions based on actions without considering the motivations. That's why I started off looking at the actions and then delved a bit deeper to see if the actions matched possible scum motivations. If I had just run the numbers and then declared my suspicions based off that first post, that would be looking at actions without motivations (although even then it would already be a bit more in-depth than what you are referring to). For example, if I wasn't looking at motivations and other details I wouldn't have droppped Pandora or BBmolla off the lists from my first post. That doesn't mean I looked at every single person's interactions in-depth, though, and if you were paying attention you'd notice that I already said I didn't look *that* closely at ISOs.

Just because I have a list to work with and have placed a vote based on my current analysis doesn't mean that I won't go back and look more closely at those people later. I've already spent 3 hours on this game today, and it would have been another 3 hours if I'd tried to read in detail just the people who ended up on my list, much less the others who I was considering. Do you really think that everyone has the ability to make that kind of time investment into a game?

[Mastermind of Sin]

MoS, at first glance your method just rewards scum, who likes to bus the partners and avoid other major wagons, sitting on vanity wagons, and as in any statistical system the points you look for and the weights you use really change the results. It can be useful for you to pick a players to ISO (given 18 players alive and the number of pages), but that's about it.

You said that "points system is just a guideline for further analysis", but in the end came to conclusion that several players are scummy for showing "up on pretty much every list", which means that your conclusions ARE based on points system, not on detailed ISOs.

Cases where the follow-up analysis supports the conclusion of the points system indicate players who are most likely to be scum, because not only did they exhibit base behaviors that can be indicative as scum, but the timing and positioning of those actions further supports that possibility. Just because the points system is part of my results doesn't mean it was the only part. Several people who were indicated as possible scum due to the points system are not people I suspect, because the follow-up analysis didn't support them being scum.

Also i think that somewhere on a road in your VCA you took a wrong turn, since the final Stannis list changed a lot, and in that final post you weren't really analyzing that faction...

At least one

Stannis scum

is in this group:

Benmage, Magua, Shinori

(obviously I know it's not me)

Stannis Faction

possible:

Benmage, Shinori, BBmolla, Magua, 4nxiety

Stannis Faction

:

kortul, Jal, Shinori

You'll note that Benmage and Magua (the only two guys you claim "dropped off") are still in line as possible Stannis, just not quite as likely as they were before. Just because I narrowed my lists down to two tiers for each faction doesn't mean they're no longer suspicious or can't be in the Stannis faction.

Also, how the hell can you claim that my conclusions are completely based on the points system in one post and then in the next post turn around and question why my suspicions changed during follow-up analysis and don't match the initial points results? That doesn't make any sense at all.

[Mastermind of Sin]

You're directly contradicting yourself, kortul.

[Mastermind of Sin]

@Zdenek: I hadn't really thought about it before, but I guess you could look at it that way. There's certainly more advantage for scum to get the Choose. That means we definitely need to take a closer look at the DCLXVI wagon...

Also, PAGE 100!

[Mastermind of Sin]

MoI: what is your read on me, shinori, and MoS?

MoS: Gut is nothing. But ok

Gut is everything. Gut is more reliable than cases. I'd trust my gut over my brain ANY day.

And yet you just made a numbers list...now does your gut feel about the people on the lists?

Pretty good...since I'm voting a guy my gut said was scum since Day 1? Not sure what you're trying to say lol

[Mastermind of Sin]

I've played one other game with feysal, and he didn't have much input to the game, like,here. He was rather sporadic in his activity, but he was instrumental in lynching scum and in making sure scum was lynched in endgame. His lazor focus on Starbucks is frustrating, but he is a careful player who weighs evidence properly so some of the Starbucks focus is being overlooked, though he really needs to expand reads.

The Feysal I know is much more active and has a LOT of input...that said, I think he's town cuz *reasons*.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Regfan, what scumreads of mine were you expecting me to extrapolate on? All of my top scumreads were eliminated recently...I did that analysis because I didn't know where to go and I needed to get a new perspective on the game. I'm not really sure what you expected from me.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Regfan, what scumreads of mine were you expecting me to extrapolate on? All of my top scumreads were eliminated recently...I did that analysis because I didn't know where to go and I needed to get a new perspective on the game. I'm not really sure what you expected from me.

Untrue. You had a scum-read on Kortul previously that you never retracted so you going the long way round of doing a 'points scoring' to justify voting him is bullshit. Not just that though but there's a bunch of players you have as strongish town reads inside your 'scum most likely inside of' piles and the fact that you haven't gone around stating, okay, x/y/z are probably town from play/other things making a/b/c significantly more likely scum and then looking into them shows no real indepth thought process from you other than collect points data, throw it up and pretend it's contribution. Not just that but 'voting alongside same wagon as scum' in a game of this size isn't exactly a 'scum-tell' but your points data attempts to construe it is and you've flat out avoided looking at certain people; Jal, Scumhunter/Starbuck, Mockingjaye/4nxiety and Plum to some degree other than slapping their names on your list. And considering that they're all discussed likely scum and more than likely lynches today not looking into them when doing 'content' really shows you're not even attempting to scumhunt in the slightest.

Kortul was *a* scumread, but not recently at the top of my list. In fact, he had kind of dropped off my radar completely in the last few days. I didn't create that post just to look for a reason to vote kortul, that doesn't make at all. I came into my analysis with a relatively clean slate, not knowing who was scum and not really having a good feel for the game. Then, when the analysis brought up kortul's name I remembered I'd had a scumread on him way back on Day 1. The fact that my earlier gut read correlated with the results of the analysis just further solidified my feelings that he's the best play for today.

Secondly, there's a difference between listing data and making solid conclusions from it. When I made my lists based on wagon states to figure out who might be scum, I purposefully listed every living player who fell in that category, so as not to accidentally eliminate any possibilities prematurely. Then I went and looked at those lists and cross-referenced them with my other analyses and my own gut reads and gave you a final list that had who I thought we should look at for scum. If I wasn't eliminating people from the first lists based on my "strongish townreads", how do you think I could have possibly ended up with a different final list that didn't have them on it? The only person on my top scumreads list that I posted that you could possibly claim I ever had a townread on was Tammy, who I keep going back and forth on (but if you read my analysis you'd realize why I'm second-guessing that read), and Shinori, who I didn't really have a townread on but was unwilling to lynch at that point due to being a PR.

All I'm seeing from you is lashing out at me because I think kortul is scum and you don't. So really, I welcome you to explain that again, because nothing you just said actually makes any sense if you were reading my posts and paying attention.

[Mastermind of Sin]

4nxi3ty: Town-MoS is very lazy. He gets better in later days, true, but it still seems a lot of effort to present in a game this size and then... not reach a really viable conclusion. It's a behavior uncharacteristic of town-MoS, but it makes sense from scum-MoS.

You *do* realize that I have been try-harding as town lately, right? And that there's documented evidence of this?

[Mastermind of Sin]

By all means, go on. Show me where I'm wrong--if nothing else, your words show that I'm not imagining this kind of behavior in your not-recent meta, so I'd like to see this evidence of you making an effort as town recently.

You can check out Always On (where the mod just gave me an award for best use of mechanic) or The Reckoning II (where I had to pretty much single-handedly save the game after Fate and a bunch of quick-lynching dumbasses nearly handed scum a win), and there's another ongoing game that I'm dead in where I was also fairly proactive as town. I've been somewhat turning a corner on my play lately (got bored of being bored, I guess you could say), just depends on how much people annoy me or piss me off. That said, I can't say with 100% certainty that this change wouldn't also apply to my scum game, as I haven't had any scum games recently to compare to.

In this game in particular, however, I mostly just needed to do something to get my head back in the game because the last few game days have not really been productive for me to get a grip on things, since bvoigt was an obvious lynch Day 2 and you guys killed my main suspect, Sala/Sapo, before I even had a chance to check out the game thread Day 3. Hasn't really helped me get a feel for who else might be scum, so I needed to go back and look at things fresh with as little pre-existing prejudice as possible. Hence my analysis posts (duh!). I'm planning to take a look at a few other things in this game eventually, but that becomes less and less likely to happen the more I have to spend my only free game-posting time responding to retarded people in this game saying I put no effort into my analysis.

[Mastermind of Sin]

What Pandora said. In GvE (and other games) I remember Feysal being a lot more active. But his interactions with the flipped scum so far lead me to believe he's probably town, so I still think he's a bad lynch.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote: Scumhunter

[Mastermind of Sin]

What Pandora said. In GvE (and other games) I remember Feysal being a lot more active. But his interactions with the flipped scum so far lead me to believe he's probably town, so I still think he's a bad lynch.

Which interactions make you think that he's not Stannis aligned?

DCLXVI staying on the Feysal Choose wagon instead of the equally viable Greenknight wagon...also I find it unlikely that we had 4 competing wagons on scum D1...Sapo/bvoigt for votes and DCLXVI/Feysal for chooses...

[Mastermind of Sin]

Still not really feeling it, but I'm interested to see what Feysal has to say in response.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Obviously I'd expect to put effort into scum games, otherwise you'd be creating deliberate town meta. Worry not, that's not what I'm asking.

For months I tried creating a deliberate town meta of being incredibly lazy...and it never worked. I finally give up on that and change my play around and someone finally decides to use my previous meta...to paint me as scum for not following it anymore. *sigh* >.<

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'll go through these games tomorrow and mull this over. Thanks for answering.

FYI, the other game was Judge, Jury, & Executioner, which just ended. I was the first Judge until the mafia finally found me and killed me.

[Mastermind of Sin]

The fact that you haven't stated any read on Jal/Scumhunter/Mocking and a bunch of other people including Benmage at all

Hmm, let's see. I have previously stated I thought Jal was highly likely to be Stannis faction, and that Mocking/4nxiety and Benmage were both highly likely to be Aegon faction.

So either you must be REALLY bad at reading comprehension to not realize that claiming someone is probably part of a scum faction means I have a scumread on them or you're purposefully trying to do everything you can to attack me right now without actually stopping to make sure that your "case" makes any sense.

...and I really don't think you're that stupid to actually think your case makes sense.

Major FoS: Regfan

[Mastermind of Sin]

THAT'S EXACTLY IT. You've gone through your analysis and came back stating they're likely X/Y scum but you've never decided 'hmm I should re-read their actual posts and not some stupid points system to get a read on them', you're content basing all your reads of point system which makes no sense at all which is why it's a fake contribution and allows you to just vote high points back to back without justifying with any real reasoning other than 'high points!'

lolololololol

I love how are trying to set up this lose-lose situation for me. If I don't dig further into my scum suspects you'll say "see, I told you he would do that, he's scum!". If I *do* dig further as the game goes on, you'll just say "he's only doing it because I pressured him to do it, he's scum!". Which makes your case completely baseless because you're jumping on me for not doing something I haven't had time to do yet. You started going after me as soon as I posted my analysis, which means that you didn't care to see if I was going to look at my suspects any further, you just cared about trying to paint me as scummy as possible to get your mislynch.

Close, but no cigar buddy.

[Mastermind of Sin]

"Jumping on something I haven't had time to do yet" is complete bullshit, you haven't shown any intention to look deeper and have posted a lot since your 'analysis' without touching on any of their ISOs and reads from it. You're literally showing no townie mindset at all. And not just that but your reacting in a "Omg point out scum-tells of mine" must be pushing for mslynch which is uberscum defensiveness!!!

If you're going to do the reading into them then god damn do it. Stop creating excuses not to and pretending that your list of 'x' 'y' is anything useful.

No. You can go fuck yourself. I'll read into them when I fucking feel like it. Eat a cock, bitchfaggot.

[Mastermind of Sin]

First I try to put some effort into this game with what little time I have (there's a reason I'm only in one game right now), and immediately you come after me for not putting MORE effort into the game. And then I have to spend the rest of my time explaining to your fucking retarded brain why I'm not doing MORE to scumhunt, when YOU are the exact reason I don't have time to do MORE. So seriously, fuck off and get off your goddamn high horse.

I'm done with you and your bitch ass.

Mod: Replace me

[Mastermind of Sin]

Okay guys, can I just apologise for some of my abysmal play in this game. I went through what I have since realised was a bout of depression IRL, and every time I looked at the game I just couldn't muster the effort to read it (all my past hobbies no longer interested me, not just mafia...) But then the thought of replacing me out made me feel even worse, so I tried my best to keep afloat. When I got "confTown" based on role I tried to just let that keep me in the game.

PS Magua I don't think I ever read your alignment right.

Yea...RL depression is a large part of why I replaced out. My face-off with Regfan couldn't have come at a worse time for me, I had literally been dumped like 2 days before I ended up replacing out. So yea, that sucked. Thanks for filling in for me, buddy.

You're welcome for being "confTown"...I was trying to set that up from the very beginning. I saw some of the debate going on in thread over why I would have done something like that.

I was hoping that the other half of our team would kill Shadow N1, so I rolestopped to prevent him from being protected, and then made up a fake role that claimed my rolestop also stopped kills (which it totally didn't). I thought it was a pretty good plan, too bad I wasn't in the frame of mind to finish out the game. I felt like our team was pretty gimped from the beginning anyway, though. It kinda felt like I was the only one who really had a chance by the end of Day 1. :/