Micro 794: Miss List II (Game Over)
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Mathdino Survivor
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Oh boy
VOTE: Not_Mafia-
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Mathdino Survivor
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not_mafia-scum means this is scumIn post 4, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Greetings to those players I am familiar with - implosion, creature and Not Mafia. I’ll only be phone posting til evening when I have computer access so don’t expect walls til then.
NotMafia- want to take a stab at selling me that you will be more active than in our past games and thus not an optimal Day 1 lynch given the setup?
I’ll have some general thoughts about the setup tonight when I have a computer.
null-townIn post 7, CultOfAthena wrote:
Do you typically wall post within the first page or two of the game?In post 4, MagnaofIllusion wrote:I’ll only be phone posting til evening when I have computer access so don’t expect walls til then.
oh boy this is gonna be funIn post 10, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Yes, always.In post 7, CultOfAthena wrote:
Do you typically wall post within the first page or two of the game?In post 4, MagnaofIllusion wrote:I’ll only be phone posting til evening when I have computer access so don’t expect walls til then.
Well more accurately I make reasonable posts that are more than 1 line and are called walls in the current game environment.
And do you have an issue with not voting in my first post? Ok have one then ...
VOTE: Cult
okay let's policy lynch not_mafia to determine magna's alignment-
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Mathdino Survivor
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#badposting
objectively badposting
not_mafia --> Magna sacrifice
let's go-
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Mathdino Survivor
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why not not mafia first-
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#helpscumbus-
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Creature
CultOfAthena
Mathdino
BuJaber
Not_Mafia
MagnaofIllusion
Chickadee
implosion
HeathCliFF3
Creature is scum, hasn't posted yet.
Cult is probtown.
I'm locktown.
Bujaber seems chill, probtown.
Not_Mafia and Magna are scum together.
Chickadee is lynchbait, so she's always town.
You're sucking up to me, so you must be town.
Heath is scum by PoE.
Creature/N_M/Magna/Heath scumteam, sheep me, game won.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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I like lynching N_M first, and Magna has shown a willingness to also vote N_M here.In post 21, BuJaber wrote:
Because magna is scummier and if what you're reading as an associative works if NM flips scum why wouldn't it work if magna flips scum?In post 17, Mathdino wrote:why not not mafia first
Plus I trust Magna more to play along with the "sacrifice because of the associations" idea than N_M.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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i mean there's a chance that magna is just really fucking weird town, but if he is, i would hope he sacrifices tonight if N_M flips scum
the scumread is mostly from the weird-ass association to N_M
Edit: DID SOMEONE SAY POLICY-
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Mathdino Survivor
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VOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Not_MafiaVOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Not_MafiaVOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Not_Mafia
Edit: chickadee is lynchbait, i don't see how any of this is alignment indicative for her so far-
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Mathdino Survivor
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because what happens if magna flips town-
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mislynching not_mafia is much less risky than mislynching magna i think-
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Mathdino Survivor
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in that i prefer to have a hypothetical town-Magna around than a hypothetical town-Not_Mafia?
like if N_M flips town, i'm not scumreading magna nearly as hard
if magna flips town, fuck me up
now if either flips scum the other should clearly sacrifice
and magna is also more likely to go along with that methinks-
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Mathdino Survivor
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pages start coming and they don't stop coming
fed the game rules so i hit the ground running
didn't make sense not to live for fun
the game's by Smart but the town gets dumb
so much to do, so much to see
so what's wrong with lynching by policy?
you'll never know if you don't go
you'll never shine if you don't glow-
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Mathdino Survivor
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oh yeah you're right good point
honestly i just want to lynch not_mafia
but i accept that the correct logic is
Magna scum --> Not_Mafia scumbuddy
N_M town --> Magna less likely to be scum-
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Mathdino Survivor
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yeah this still holdsIn post 39, Mathdino wrote:like if N_M flips town, i'm not scumreading magna nearly as hard
i made a logic oopsie
that said, flipping not_mafia as scum still makes magna more likely to be scum in a kind of bayesian way imo-
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Mathdino Survivor
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How can we solve this game?In post 45, Creature wrote:Yey this game started.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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"How can *I* solve this game" is different from "How can *we* solve this game"
implosion pls lern 2 red-
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Mathdino Survivor
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"How can we solve this game" is a lowkey site-meme basically indicating a scumclaim
it's also pretty similar to the kind of posts scum-Creature tends to make, so i'm messing with him basically
i have no read on creature's 2 posts-
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Mathdino Survivor
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cult your reads list is basically upside down from mine right now
please explain this-
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Mathdino Survivor
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i'm reading the list as heavy scumread on Chickadee (unfounded since she hasn't done anything AI), scumreads on Mathdino/Magna (I'm still wrestling with whether that hilarious post comes from scum), townreads on Bujaber/implosion (both of whom I'm feeling a little weird about}
i don't actually townread chickadee
i'll post a real non-meme reads list when we've gotten to a nice stopping point-
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Mathdino Survivor
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OH I FIGURED OUR WHAT I'M SEEING
The thing magna is accusing me of is literally the exact same thing I have been accusing him of
A hamfisted attempt to bus Not_Mafia
Scum would be aware of that i think
So yes, regrettably magna is town-
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Mathdino Survivor
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Idk it just seems like you're talking to me without that much direction in mind
Like idk what you expected asking me to read creature off 2 posts, or how serious you thought my gamesolve was-
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Mathdino Survivor
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Aware that I am telling him
You're bussing Not_Mafia, let's lynch Not_Mafia to check
And he responds with
NO YOU'RE BUSSING NOT_MAFIA, LET'S KILL MATHDINO ON N_M SCUMFLIP-
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Mathdino Survivor
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I can get on board with this scumteam
VOTE: Heath-
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Hypocrisy is a towntell.
Magna-scum realises what I'm doing and avoids accusing other people of doing the exact same thing. If he even is scum, I would actually say that clears N_M at this point.
What this is is me being good with a Heath/Creature scumteam idea.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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you realise this game started 8 hours ago
i am not suggesting heath is scum for lurking lol
or even that he is lurking, he probably just hasn't seen the daystart or his role PM
although creature very well could be scumlurking-
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i'm townreading N_M now?In post 82, CultOfAthena wrote:Yeah – why? What happened to you wanting to lynch NM and voting with him now? Where did Heath even come into this?
magna-town, N_M-town, shooting completely from the hip i'll say that bujaber/implosion are probably not scum together so one of them is town
you're probably like just an inch into the townpile
heath scum by PoE
creature scum by creature-
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Mathdino Survivor
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i don't understand what you mean by inferring N_M was a boat anchor
i like wagons
why should i care that it looks strange
like, i understand why it looks strange to you, and N_M clarifying that you're stuck in a 7 year old meta is definitely consistent with that
but i'm not scumreading you for asking lolquestions-
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Mathdino Survivor
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would you like to see a game in which i actually did bus not_mafia on D1 and won alone after 4 mislynches-
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Mathdino Survivor
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cult do i look like a player to you that plays his entire hand and details every reads change over the course of pages 1-5
there is a wagon on heath, not on chickadee
early wagons are good
the more i go into how and why my read on not_mafia evolves, the more he shifts his play as scum to get townreads from me, so i'm not doing that
Edit: and fucking lol
holy scumclaim batman-
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Mathdino Survivor
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HOT TAKE: We should save confscum Creature as a backup plan for a vengekill if we lynch wrong today, so we don't have to go into the sacrifice mechanics.-
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shit i could sheep this hardIn post 98, Not_Mafia wrote:Heath, Creature, Chick, implosion
chick and implosion can be swapped out with some permutation of {bujaber, cult}
but yeah-
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go read the setup thread again with a "critical eye"In post 102, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Chicka I very much disagree his narrative was consistent. Read page 1 again with critical eye -
13 - NotMafia and I are partners.
15 - NotMafia being lynched means I should sacrifice.
20 - We are partners again.
Granted there is to be expected some early game hyperbole but that is two diametrically opposed stances in 8 posts. Keep in mind the only way I could sacrifice is if I am Town. So 15 shows he clearly either doesn’t think I was really scum and had an agenda or that he was not logically thinking in his stances.
Why do you think he is so willing to defend you so strongly in the early game?
i hang around in open setup discussion, i helped clear this
the game was half-broken before by lynching scum, then forcing the scummiest player to sacrifice
if they were still alive the next day, it confirmed them as scum
when i said "magna should sacrifice" that literally means "magna is the scummiest person by far if N_M flips scum, and should sacrifice to prove he's not scum"
i legitimately can't believe you manage to actually play town by scumslip hunting-
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Mathdino Survivor
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why would i sacrifice myself just because you don't like how i play
i don't use instagram or snapchat
not only do the cogdiss tells not apply here, they literally stopped being useful in 2008; i dare you to show evidence that they're better than random at finding scum in 2017/18
regardless, i think Not_Mafia is town, and i think you're town, and i don't know if cult is town, so i'm putting myself on a town-motivated PoE wagon-
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Mathdino Survivor
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like i feel like it's pretty obvious that when i request a player to sacrifice themselves under a hypothetical scenario, i'm reading them as scum in that scenario
i'm not asking you to sacrifice just because i'm being a dick, i, at the time, thought you and N_M were scum together
i am actually incredulous that you from your POV on the game think i'm a better sacrifice than Not_Mafia and Creature, both of whom you've shit on for being useless-
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Mathdino Survivor
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hey panther can you do me a favour and list the last 5 or so games you replaced into
don't have to link them all, i can do the rest-
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because the last time people scumread you over your weirdly ingenuine sounding tone, you were quicklynched on page 4In post 115, Chickadee wrote:Math - I'm curious why you keep writing me off as lynch bait.
i'm very careful with players i've seen easily D1 mislynched before
your reasons for asking me to sacrifice were unclearIn post 116, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Not sure why you are trying to shape that as my point – if I was going to target someone as auto-sacrifice for playstyle it would clearly be NotMafia. My point is you said the scummiest player should sacrifice. Currently you are highest on my radar thus testing your resolve on your plan.In post 109, Mathdino wrote:why would i sacrifice myself just because you don't like how i play
i would sacrifice if a sufficient number of players required me to
as in, i wouldn't sacrifice if i just thought the entire scumteam and one townie wanted me to, but i would if it seemed like the entire town was gonna lynch me tomorrow
i think you need to back up your scumtellsIn post 116, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
I think you put way too much stock that the “game has changed” if you are posting fluff like this.In post 109, Mathdino wrote:not only do the cogdiss tells not apply here, they literally stopped being useful in 2008; i dare you to show evidence that they're better than random at finding scum in 2017/18
it's really annoying when people come in with really old tells that straight up don't work
and calling mafia theory "fluff" when i've clearly been active in posting game relevant content
just stop
when did i ever ask you directly to sacrificeIn post 116, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Are you angling for some sort of Town read for hypocrisy here? Because there is delightful levels of irony in you thinking that my question was any different than your directive in saying “Hey … I think you are the scummiest player so be prepared to make the sacrifice tonight”.In post 110, Mathdino wrote:like i feel like it's pretty obvious that when i request a player to sacrifice themselves under a hypothetical scenario, i'm reading them as scum in that scenario
i'm not asking you to sacrifice just because i'm being a dick, i, at the time, thought you and N_M were scum together
i am actually incredulous that you from your POV on the game think i'm a better sacrifice than Not_Mafia and Creature, both of whom you've shit on for being useless
there's a difference between saying "hey guys i think math should sacrifice on N_M scumflip" and seeing who agrees (as i was doing)
and saying "hey do you wanna sacrifice when N_M flips scum?"
like obviously i'm gonna say no if it's literally just you asking me to do that
screw youIn post 116, MagnaofIllusion wrote:You seem a bit too worked up over a single vote and some questioning here Math. Are you prone to over-emotive outbursts?-
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Mathdino Survivor
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i doubt it
thor had more respect for me even when i did an insane fakeclaim gambit as town-
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it's a lot easier for me to do a quick search for people's towngames and scumgames (using a search for mafia PTs) than it is to find all the games they've ever replaced intoIn post 124, implosion wrote:I am sort of wavering on how much I think I can read math. There is a very good chance I think I can read him better than I actually can.
This feels like a "hey look at me, i'm engaging with people and forming reads" question.Mathdino wrote:hey panther can you do me a favour and list the last 5 or so games you replaced into
don't have to link them all, i can do the rest
Do you have past history with him that's making you assume he has replaced in to so many games in the past? What are you intending to do that is worth the effort of looking at these games, but not worth the effort of finding them yourself?
i don't like the "oh I'm happy to get a town PM!" entrance
even though that's literally what i do every time i replace into games (because I purposefully replace into towngames)
so given that it rubs me the wrong way, yet it's also a towntell for myself, the only solution is to do a meta-check on him-
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i guess i'd do it if i replaced into scumgames, idk yet
i just haven't replaced into a scumgame
like it's a towntell because i only replace into towngames
i think if i only said that when i replaced into towngames (and not scumgames) it'd quickly become a trust tell and that'd be no bueno
i'm just conflicted about the "I'M HAPPY TO ROLL TOWN" behaviour, and i do think it's a tell for a lot of people, but whether it's a towntell or scumtell varies from player to player-
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1. yes, but i could also refer to anything upick, where my town persona was D1 scumreading chickadee (along with a few other players IIRC)
2. yeah basically
townreading magna, so that's one
but one townie asking me to do a thing isn't enough
then of course if the entire game or the entire game minus one player wanted me to sacrifice, then the majority of the town would be contained in that by pigeonhole principle
so if it got to that point, then yes, i would sacrifice-
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not seeing what makes cult so likely townIn post 123, implosion wrote:Cult is likely town, and has vote parked chickadee for a while, yet no one has jumped on despite her not really looking especially town. I'm not entirely sure how this plays into this setup with likelihood of scum bussing or not, but I also now quite dislike that she ignored my vote which I think was the kind of vote town will usually be really irritated by.
i can certainly agree that at least one of them is scum though-
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watIn post 136, CultOfAthena wrote:
This feels like you're pre-empting the point I was going to make about that game not really being a good example of what you're talking about – like youIn post 133, Mathdino wrote:1. yes, but i could also refer to anything upick, where my town persona was D1 scumreading chickadee (along with a few other players IIRC)alreadyknow that what you said has holes in it.
if chickadee-town is objectively scummy to the point that
1. multiple townies have suspected her
2. it's really easy to scumread her as scum
then why would i want to join a chickadee wagon when doing so was literally my scum strategy twice in a row
the fact that i was scum in both of those games ADDS to my point-
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never have, no
i would be interested if Cult has played against scum chickadee given she claims she can recognise obvscum chickadee
i'll do a metadive when chickadee has produced more content, but a page 6 metadive is a little early for that-
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Mathdino Survivor
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How am I being helpful on the surface if you're not seeing my reads progression?
Wouldn't that make me unhelpful on the surface when in reality I'm busy gamesolving?-
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Also i answered both of those questions
I always hipfire early reads to create a foundation for myself
My reads on those 2 players solidified around page 2-
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A little bit of both?
Not_Mafia seems like town Not_Mafia
I'm getting better at reading him
Like how I pegged him as scum in gammas game and then lynched not-him like an idiot-
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EHHHHH
1 game was 3:5 in a heavily scumread slot, it's a wonder I narrowed it down to 2 choices at all given that other players had more than 2 options
And last game was scumsided as fuck, you know that
Tbh the only lylo I've lost that wasn't scumsided circumstance in the first place was a 4:1 game
Also in this setup you could legit just lynch me in Lylo and have me vengeshoot
Or agree to have me killed if I pick wrong
Lylo is weird in this setup-
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Wait and that'd total misrep
I had the right choice but then Beefster did jackshit for town wincon to the point of self fucking voting in Lylo
Don't pin that on my scumhunting ability-
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I mean as cathartic as it always is to lynch Not_Mafia
I think he's more than 50% likely to be town
And in that situation
Do we really trust his ability to shoot scum-
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I'm trying to wrap my brain around the actual flaw in just fucking lynching anyone on d1 knowing they'll probably pick right
Like does scum have any motivation to lynch town here on d1-
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Yeah but that 20% chance of winning vs the incredible gains from distancing hard enough that they can win much later on
You agree creature is confscum, right?
I'm trying to figure out how to optimally play this if we have a backup confscum-
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I think cult and Chickadee are scum together...-
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If we just lynch creature straight up, we don't have a plan in place for who to sacrifice
So mafia will just kill the strongest townie-
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This again relies on the idea that enough people to comprise the majority of the town want this. This game has such high scum numbers that scum essentially control dayplay (while town control nightplay).In post 187, CultOfAthena wrote:On an unrelated note, I've been thinking about it, and I think the best play is to always have two people who we think are either the scummiest or who we think are scum together be the ones to sacrifice. If they're both scum, neither will be able to sacrifice and we'll essentially have two guilties, and in the other situations (one town and one scum or two town), I don't think we're any worse off than if just one person was set to sacrifice.
Also consider that scum's 1-shot ability to stop the sacrifice was specifically put in place to deal with this breaking strategy. I agree with it roughly, but we still need contingency plans afterward.-
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Is this question actually relevant at all?In post 191, MagnaofIllusion wrote:First I agree that Panther’s entrance was awkward as heck. But from there I have a question.
Why not do a term search in the replacement thread for his username in reverse Page order to draw the data as opposed to asking him?
Not all mods put the name of the user that filled the slot. Some games have replacement queues. I've filled slots before they go up on replacement requests.
Plus the question implicitly puts him under pressure and forces self-consciousness. Or, rather, it did before I got dogged for asking the question 3 times.
Don't be an ass.In post 191, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
This is some sort meta joke, right? I mean after all your lecturing on what constitutes valid scum-hunting earlier for you to float this really blows my mind. Enough so that you get a pic ..In post 130, Mathdino wrote:i'm just conflicted about the "I'M HAPPY TO ROLL TOWN" behaviour, and i do think it's a tell for a lot of people, but whether it's a towntell or scumtell varies from player to player
Some tells are useless altogether. Some tells vary from player to player. I think this COULD be alignment indicative, but I'd need to see how he replaces into games in general. It was a one off question, not the basis of my entire scumhunting.-
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I realise now that the specific thing Bujaber is worried about is me picking wrong in LyLo, not me being the scum in LyLo. In Gamma's game (just finished) he was going on about how I should be lynched if I were alive by LyLo (all lies lol), and I agreed to be killed by then if I hadn't fucked up the scumteam already.
But obviously being agreed to be killed on the condition that I pick wrong in LyLo only solves the "paranoia of Math-scum" issue, not the "Math choosing wrong" issue.
So I mixed things up cuz #phoneposting.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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- Posts: 14337
- Joined: February 24, 2013
- Location: Right Behind You
What percent sure are you that Chickadee is scum? With 50% being totally random from your POV.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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Me agreeing to get shot in 3p LyLo boils what should objectively be a 2/3 chance by that point (because we get 2 kills and 3p) down to a 50/50. Which seems fine on the surface, but it's less than 100% likely we even get that far. Planning that out is strictly suboptimal for town.
The answer matters strategically.
Going on the assumption that the majority of people's top scumreads (even mine) are only slightly better than average, this is basically how the game gets lost by town:
- We lynch a scummy individual who actively campaigns for the lynch of a scummy townie. Scumteam helps orchestrate this lynch.
- Scumteam puts that person's top scumspect on the Miss List.
- Lynchee shoots, we lose.
I have a few strategies then, in increasing order of complexity.
A. If you get lynched, and your top scumspect is on the list, don't shoot them. Even if they're scum, there's a 75% chance of hitting scum elsewhere. Your reads would have to be at least 50% better than random in ordinary games to bet the game on it. Shoot randomly if you're around 75% sure (most people overstate their reads accuracy).
B. If you see your top scumspect on the list, don't immediately shoot them. Find any pair of players you believe can't both be scum (two pairs if you're feeling adventurous), and shoot randomly elsewhere.
I don't think we should discount the idea of shooting randomly from a pool of people. Scumteam might have sacrificial lambs in place already, i.e. people they know will likely get shot at night. It's better, IMO, to save those people for the lynches.
C. We use confscum Creature as a way to communicate with the dead. More on this in a bit.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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You clearly know nothing of both Not_Mafia and Creature scumgames/towngames.In post 198, MagnaofIllusion wrote:NotMafia seems far too composed and putting on a similar “Look at me, I’m casual about not doing much to scum-hunt or help people sort me as Town” move that Creature is. The NotMafia I am familiar with is much more hyperactive and tries as Town even if his historic results have been poor. And while relational links are very weak pre-flip what I’m seeing with his interactions with Math also put him here.
Creature is lurking so hard that I am finding it harder to believe he is Town. Town Creature in games I’ve played with in the past (including a Something Smart joint) has been much more active.
You should see N_M play vig sometime.