Micro 794: Miss List II (Game Over)

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #12 (isolation #0) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:08 am

Post by Mathdino »

Oh boy
VOTE: Not_Mafia
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Post Post #13 (isolation #1) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:59 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 4, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Greetings to those players I am familiar with - implosion, creature and Not Mafia. I’ll only be phone posting til evening when I have computer access so don’t expect walls til then.

NotMafia
- want to take a stab at selling me that you will be more active than in our past games and thus not an optimal Day 1 lynch given the setup?

I’ll have some general thoughts about the setup tonight when I have a computer.
not_mafia-scum means this is scum
In post 7, CultOfAthena wrote:
In post 4, MagnaofIllusion wrote:I’ll only be phone posting til evening when I have computer access so don’t expect walls til then.
Do you typically wall post within the first page or two of the game?
null-town
In post 10, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 7, CultOfAthena wrote:
In post 4, MagnaofIllusion wrote:I’ll only be phone posting til evening when I have computer access so don’t expect walls til then.
Do you typically wall post within the first page or two of the game?
Yes, always.

Well more accurately I make reasonable posts that are more than 1 line and are called walls in the current game environment.

And do you have an issue with not voting in my first post? Ok have one then ...

VOTE: Cult
oh boy this is gonna be fun

okay let's policy lynch not_mafia to determine magna's alignment
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Post Post #15 (isolation #2) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:08 am

Post by Mathdino »

#badposting

objectively badposting

not_mafia --> Magna sacrifice
let's go
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Post Post #17 (isolation #3) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:13 am

Post by Mathdino »

why not not mafia first
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Post Post #18 (isolation #4) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:14 am

Post by Mathdino »

#helpscumbus
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Post Post #20 (isolation #5) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:25 am

Post by Mathdino »

Creature
CultOfAthena
Mathdino
BuJaber
Not_Mafia
MagnaofIllusion
Chickadee
implosion
HeathCliFF3

Creature is scum, hasn't posted yet. :P
Cult is probtown.
I'm locktown.
Bujaber seems chill, probtown.
Not_Mafia and Magna are scum together.
Chickadee is lynchbait, so she's always town.
You're sucking up to me, so you must be town.
Heath is scum by PoE.

Creature/N_M/Magna/Heath scumteam, sheep me, game won.
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Post Post #24 (isolation #6) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:37 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 21, BuJaber wrote:
In post 17, Mathdino wrote:why not not mafia first
Because magna is scummier and if what you're reading as an associative works if NM flips scum why wouldn't it work if magna flips scum?
I like lynching N_M first, and Magna has shown a willingness to also vote N_M here.

Plus I trust Magna more to play along with the "sacrifice because of the associations" idea than N_M.
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Post Post #31 (isolation #7) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:22 am

Post by Mathdino »

i mean there's a chance that magna is just really fucking weird town, but if he is, i would hope he sacrifices tonight if N_M flips scum

the scumread is mostly from the weird-ass association to N_M

Edit: DID SOMEONE SAY POLICY
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Post Post #33 (isolation #8) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:23 am

Post by Mathdino »

VOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Not_MafiaVOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Not_MafiaVOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Not_Mafia

Edit: chickadee is lynchbait, i don't see how any of this is alignment indicative for her so far
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Post Post #35 (isolation #9) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:24 am

Post by Mathdino »

because what happens if magna flips town
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Post Post #37 (isolation #10) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

mislynching not_mafia is much less risky than mislynching magna i think
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Post Post #39 (isolation #11) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:07 pm

Post by Mathdino »

in that i prefer to have a hypothetical town-Magna around than a hypothetical town-Not_Mafia?

like if N_M flips town, i'm not scumreading magna nearly as hard

if magna flips town, fuck me up

now if either flips scum the other should clearly sacrifice

and magna is also more likely to go along with that methinks
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Post Post #41 (isolation #12) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:24 pm

Post by Mathdino »

pages start coming and they don't stop coming
fed the game rules so i hit the ground running
didn't make sense not to live for fun
the game's by Smart but the town gets dumb

so much to do, so much to see
so what's wrong with lynching by policy?
you'll never know if you don't go
you'll never shine if you don't glow
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Post Post #43 (isolation #13) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:37 pm

Post by Mathdino »

oh yeah you're right good point

honestly i just want to lynch not_mafia

but i accept that the correct logic is

Magna scum --> Not_Mafia scumbuddy
N_M town --> Magna less likely to be scum
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Post Post #44 (isolation #14) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:39 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 39, Mathdino wrote:like if N_M flips town, i'm not scumreading magna nearly as hard
yeah this still holds

i made a logic oopsie

that said, flipping not_mafia as scum still makes magna more likely to be scum in a kind of bayesian way imo
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Post Post #46 (isolation #15) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:40 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 45, Creature wrote:Yey this game started.
How can we solve this game?
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Post Post #49 (isolation #16) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:46 pm

Post by Mathdino »

"How can *I* solve this game" is different from "How can *we* solve this game"

implosion pls lern 2 red
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Post Post #51 (isolation #17) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:59 pm

Post by Mathdino »

"How can we solve this game" is a lowkey site-meme basically indicating a scumclaim

it's also pretty similar to the kind of posts scum-Creature tends to make, so i'm messing with him basically

i have no read on creature's 2 posts
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Post Post #60 (isolation #18) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:24 pm

Post by Mathdino »

cult your reads list is basically upside down from mine right now

please explain this
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Post Post #65 (isolation #19) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:34 pm

Post by Mathdino »

i'm reading the list as heavy scumread on Chickadee (unfounded since she hasn't done anything AI), scumreads on Mathdino/Magna (I'm still wrestling with whether that hilarious post comes from scum), townreads on Bujaber/implosion (both of whom I'm feeling a little weird about}

i don't actually townread chickadee

i'll post a real non-meme reads list when we've gotten to a nice stopping point
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Post Post #67 (isolation #20) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:38 pm

Post by Mathdino »

OH I FIGURED OUR WHAT I'M SEEING

The thing magna is accusing me of is literally the exact same thing I have been accusing him of

A hamfisted attempt to bus Not_Mafia

Scum would be aware of that i think

So yes, regrettably magna is town
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Post Post #68 (isolation #21) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:39 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Idk it just seems like you're talking to me without that much direction in mind

Like idk what you expected asking me to read creature off 2 posts, or how serious you thought my gamesolve was
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Post Post #72 (isolation #22) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:41 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Aware that I am telling him
You're bussing Not_Mafia, let's lynch Not_Mafia to check
And he responds with
NO YOU'RE BUSSING NOT_MAFIA, LET'S KILL MATHDINO ON N_M SCUMFLIP
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Post Post #74 (isolation #23) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:43 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I can get on board with this scumteam
VOTE: Heath
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Post Post #80 (isolation #24) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:51 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Hypocrisy is a towntell.
Magna-scum realises what I'm doing and avoids accusing other people of doing the exact same thing. If he even is scum, I would actually say that clears N_M at this point.

What this is is me being good with a Heath/Creature scumteam idea.
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Post Post #83 (isolation #25) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:57 pm

Post by Mathdino »

you realise this game started 8 hours ago

i am not suggesting heath is scum for lurking lol

or even that he is lurking, he probably just hasn't seen the daystart or his role PM

although creature very well could be scumlurking
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Post Post #84 (isolation #26) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:02 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 82, CultOfAthena wrote:Yeah – why? What happened to you wanting to lynch NM and voting with him now? Where did Heath even come into this?
i'm townreading N_M now?

magna-town, N_M-town, shooting completely from the hip i'll say that bujaber/implosion are probably not scum together so one of them is town

you're probably like just an inch into the townpile

heath scum by PoE

creature scum by creature
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Post Post #86 (isolation #27) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:07 pm

Post by Mathdino »

i don't understand what you mean by inferring N_M was a boat anchor

i like wagons

why should i care that it looks strange

like, i understand why it looks strange to you, and N_M clarifying that you're stuck in a 7 year old meta is definitely consistent with that

but i'm not scumreading you for asking lolquestions
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Post Post #88 (isolation #28) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:10 pm

Post by Mathdino »

would you like to see a game in which i actually did bus not_mafia on D1 and won alone after 4 mislynches
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Post Post #92 (isolation #29) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:14 pm

Post by Mathdino »

cult do i look like a player to you that plays his entire hand and details every reads change over the course of pages 1-5

there is a wagon on heath, not on chickadee

early wagons are good

the more i go into how and why my read on not_mafia evolves, the more he shifts his play as scum to get townreads from me, so i'm not doing that

Edit: and fucking lol
holy scumclaim batman
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Post Post #94 (isolation #30) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:18 pm

Post by Mathdino »

HOT TAKE: We should save confscum Creature as a backup plan for a vengekill if we lynch wrong today, so we don't have to go into the sacrifice mechanics.
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Post Post #99 (isolation #31) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:23 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 98, Not_Mafia wrote:Heath, Creature, Chick, implosion
shit i could sheep this hard

chick and implosion can be swapped out with some permutation of {bujaber, cult}

but yeah
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Post Post #107 (isolation #32) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:58 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 102, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Chicka I very much disagree his narrative was consistent. Read page 1 again with critical eye -

- NotMafia and I are partners.
- NotMafia being lynched means I should sacrifice.
- We are partners again.

Granted there is to be expected some early game hyperbole but that is two diametrically opposed stances in 8 posts. Keep in mind the only way I could sacrifice is if I am Town. So 15 shows he clearly either doesn’t think I was really scum and had an agenda or that he was not logically thinking in his stances.

Why do you think he is so willing to defend you so strongly in the early game?
go read the setup thread again with a "critical eye"

i hang around in open setup discussion, i helped clear this

the game was half-broken before by lynching scum, then forcing the scummiest player to sacrifice

if they were still alive the next day, it confirmed them as scum

when i said "magna should sacrifice" that literally means "magna is the scummiest person by far if N_M flips scum, and should sacrifice to prove he's not scum"

i legitimately can't believe you manage to actually play town by scumslip hunting
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Post Post #109 (isolation #33) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:36 am

Post by Mathdino »

why would i sacrifice myself just because you don't like how i play

i don't use instagram or snapchat

not only do the cogdiss tells not apply here, they literally stopped being useful in 2008; i dare you to show evidence that they're better than random at finding scum in 2017/18

regardless, i think Not_Mafia is town, and i think you're town, and i don't know if cult is town, so i'm putting myself on a town-motivated PoE wagon
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Post Post #110 (isolation #34) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:39 am

Post by Mathdino »

like i feel like it's pretty obvious that when i request a player to sacrifice themselves under a hypothetical scenario, i'm reading them as scum in that scenario

i'm not asking you to sacrifice just because i'm being a dick, i, at the time, thought you and N_M were scum together

i am actually incredulous that you from your POV on the game think i'm a better sacrifice than Not_Mafia and Creature, both of whom you've shit on for being useless
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Post Post #114 (isolation #35) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:48 am

Post by Mathdino »

hey panther can you do me a favour and list the last 5 or so games you replaced into

don't have to link them all, i can do the rest
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Post Post #118 (isolation #36) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:16 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 115, Chickadee wrote:Math - I'm curious why you keep writing me off as lynch bait.
because the last time people scumread you over your weirdly ingenuine sounding tone, you were quicklynched on page 4

i'm very careful with players i've seen easily D1 mislynched before
In post 116, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 109, Mathdino wrote:why would i sacrifice myself just because you don't like how i play
Not sure why you are trying to shape that as my point – if I was going to target someone as auto-sacrifice for playstyle it would clearly be NotMafia. My point is you said the scummiest player should sacrifice. Currently you are highest on my radar thus testing your resolve on your plan.
your reasons for asking me to sacrifice were unclear
i would sacrifice if a sufficient number of players required me to
as in, i wouldn't sacrifice if i just thought the entire scumteam and one townie wanted me to, but i would if it seemed like the entire town was gonna lynch me tomorrow
In post 116, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 109, Mathdino wrote:not only do the cogdiss tells not apply here, they literally stopped being useful in 2008; i dare you to show evidence that they're better than random at finding scum in 2017/18
I think you put way too much stock that the “game has changed” if you are posting fluff like this.
i think you need to back up your scumtells
it's really annoying when people come in with really old tells that straight up don't work
and calling mafia theory "fluff" when i've clearly been active in posting game relevant content
just stop
In post 116, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 110, Mathdino wrote:like i feel like it's pretty obvious that when i request a player to sacrifice themselves under a hypothetical scenario, i'm reading them as scum in that scenario

i'm not asking you to sacrifice just because i'm being a dick, i, at the time, thought you and N_M were scum together

i am actually incredulous that you from your POV on the game think i'm a better sacrifice than Not_Mafia and Creature, both of whom you've shit on for being useless
Are you angling for some sort of Town read for hypocrisy here? Because there is delightful levels of irony in you thinking that my question was any different than your directive in saying “Hey … I think you are the scummiest player so be prepared to make the sacrifice tonight”.
when did i ever ask you directly to sacrifice
there's a difference between saying "hey guys i think math should sacrifice on N_M scumflip" and seeing who agrees (as i was doing)
and saying "hey do you wanna sacrifice when N_M flips scum?"
like obviously i'm gonna say no if it's literally just you asking me to do that
In post 116, MagnaofIllusion wrote:You seem a bit too worked up over a single vote and some questioning here Math. Are you prone to over-emotive outbursts?
screw you
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Post Post #120 (isolation #37) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:20 am

Post by Mathdino »

i doubt it
thor had more respect for me even when i did an insane fakeclaim gambit as town
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Post Post #128 (isolation #38) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:42 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 124, implosion wrote:I am sort of wavering on how much I think I can read math. There is a very good chance I think I can read him better than I actually can.
Mathdino wrote:hey panther can you do me a favour and list the last 5 or so games you replaced into

don't have to link them all, i can do the rest
This feels like a "hey look at me, i'm engaging with people and forming reads" question.

Do you have past history with him that's making you assume he has replaced in to so many games in the past? What are you intending to do that is worth the effort of looking at these games, but not worth the effort of finding them yourself?
it's a lot easier for me to do a quick search for people's towngames and scumgames (using a search for mafia PTs) than it is to find all the games they've ever replaced into

i don't like the "oh I'm happy to get a town PM!" entrance

even though that's literally what i do every time i replace into games (because I purposefully replace into towngames)

so given that it rubs me the wrong way, yet it's also a towntell for myself, the only solution is to do a meta-check on him
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Post Post #130 (isolation #39) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:48 am

Post by Mathdino »

i guess i'd do it if i replaced into scumgames, idk yet

i just haven't replaced into a scumgame

like it's a towntell because i only replace into towngames

i think if i only said that when i replaced into towngames (and not scumgames) it'd quickly become a trust tell and that'd be no bueno

i'm just conflicted about the "I'M HAPPY TO ROLL TOWN" behaviour, and i do think it's a tell for a lot of people, but whether it's a towntell or scumtell varies from player to player
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Post Post #133 (isolation #40) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:53 am

Post by Mathdino »

1. yes, but i could also refer to anything upick, where my town persona was D1 scumreading chickadee (along with a few other players IIRC)

2. yeah basically
townreading magna, so that's one
but one townie asking me to do a thing isn't enough

then of course if the entire game or the entire game minus one player wanted me to sacrifice, then the majority of the town would be contained in that by pigeonhole principle

so if it got to that point, then yes, i would sacrifice
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Post Post #135 (isolation #41) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:57 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 123, implosion wrote:Cult is likely town, and has vote parked chickadee for a while, yet no one has jumped on despite her not really looking especially town. I'm not entirely sure how this plays into this setup with likelihood of scum bussing or not, but I also now quite dislike that she ignored my vote which I think was the kind of vote town will usually be really irritated by.
not seeing what makes cult so likely town

i can certainly agree that at least one of them is scum though
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Post Post #141 (isolation #42) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:14 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 136, CultOfAthena wrote:
In post 133, Mathdino wrote:1. yes, but i could also refer to anything upick, where my town persona was D1 scumreading chickadee (along with a few other players IIRC)
This feels like you're pre-empting the point I was going to make about that game not really being a good example of what you're talking about – like you
already
know that what you said has holes in it.
wat

if chickadee-town is objectively scummy to the point that
1. multiple townies have suspected her
2. it's really easy to scumread her as scum

then why would i want to join a chickadee wagon when doing so was literally my scum strategy twice in a row

the fact that i was scum in both of those games ADDS to my point
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Post Post #143 (isolation #43) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 2:49 pm

Post by Mathdino »

never have, no

i would be interested if Cult has played against scum chickadee given she claims she can recognise obvscum chickadee

i'll do a metadive when chickadee has produced more content, but a page 6 metadive is a little early for that
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Post Post #146 (isolation #44) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:51 pm

Post by Mathdino »

How am I being helpful on the surface if you're not seeing my reads progression?

Wouldn't that make me unhelpful on the surface when in reality I'm busy gamesolving?
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Post Post #147 (isolation #45) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:52 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Also i answered both of those questions

I always hipfire early reads to create a foundation for myself

My reads on those 2 players solidified around page 2
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Post Post #150 (isolation #46) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:24 pm

Post by Mathdino »

A little bit of both?

Not_Mafia seems like town Not_Mafia

I'm getting better at reading him

Like how I pegged him as scum in gammas game and then lynched not-him like an idiot
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Post Post #152 (isolation #47) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:28 pm

Post by Mathdino »

EHHHHH
1 game was 3:5 in a heavily scumread slot, it's a wonder I narrowed it down to 2 choices at all given that other players had more than 2 options
And last game was scumsided as fuck, you know that

Tbh the only lylo I've lost that wasn't scumsided circumstance in the first place was a 4:1 game

Also in this setup you could legit just lynch me in Lylo and have me vengeshoot
Or agree to have me killed if I pick wrong
Lylo is weird in this setup
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Post Post #153 (isolation #48) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:29 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Wait and that'd total misrep
I had the right choice but then Beefster did jackshit for town wincon to the point of self fucking voting in Lylo
Don't pin that on my scumhunting ability
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Post Post #155 (isolation #49) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:48 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I mean as cathartic as it always is to lynch Not_Mafia
I think he's more than 50% likely to be town
And in that situation
Do we really trust his ability to shoot scum
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Post Post #156 (isolation #50) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:53 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I'm trying to wrap my brain around the actual flaw in just fucking lynching anyone on d1 knowing they'll probably pick right

Like does scum have any motivation to lynch town here on d1
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Post Post #159 (isolation #51) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:56 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Yeah but that 20% chance of winning vs the incredible gains from distancing hard enough that they can win much later on

You agree creature is confscum, right?

I'm trying to figure out how to optimally play this if we have a backup confscum
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Post Post #160 (isolation #52) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:58 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I think cult and Chickadee are scum together...
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Post Post #162 (isolation #53) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:08 pm

Post by Mathdino »

If we just lynch creature straight up, we don't have a plan in place for who to sacrifice

So mafia will just kill the strongest townie
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Post Post #189 (isolation #54) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 8:36 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 187, CultOfAthena wrote:On an unrelated note, I've been thinking about it, and I think the best play is to always have two people who we think are either the scummiest or who we think are scum together be the ones to sacrifice. If they're both scum, neither will be able to sacrifice and we'll essentially have two guilties, and in the other situations (one town and one scum or two town), I don't think we're any worse off than if just one person was set to sacrifice.
This again relies on the idea that enough people to comprise the majority of the town want this. This game has such high scum numbers that scum essentially control dayplay (while town control nightplay).

Also consider that scum's 1-shot ability to stop the sacrifice was specifically put in place to deal with this breaking strategy. I agree with it roughly, but we still need contingency plans afterward.
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Post Post #192 (isolation #55) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:38 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 191, MagnaofIllusion wrote:First I agree that Panther’s entrance was awkward as heck. But from there I have a question.

Why not do a term search in the replacement thread for his username in reverse Page order to draw the data as opposed to asking him?
Is this question actually relevant at all?

Not all mods put the name of the user that filled the slot. Some games have replacement queues. I've filled slots before they go up on replacement requests.

Plus the question implicitly puts him under pressure and forces self-consciousness. Or, rather, it did before I got dogged for asking the question 3 times.
In post 191, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 130, Mathdino wrote:i'm just conflicted about the "I'M HAPPY TO ROLL TOWN" behaviour, and i do think it's a tell for a lot of people, but whether it's a towntell or scumtell varies from player to player
This is some sort meta joke, right? I mean after all your lecturing on what constitutes valid scum-hunting earlier for you to float this really blows my mind. Enough so that you get a pic ..
Don't be an ass.

Some tells are useless altogether. Some tells vary from player to player. I think this COULD be alignment indicative, but I'd need to see how he replaces into games in general. It was a one off question, not the basis of my entire scumhunting.
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Post Post #195 (isolation #56) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:45 am

Post by Mathdino »

I realise now that the specific thing Bujaber is worried about is me picking wrong in LyLo, not me being the scum in LyLo. In Gamma's game (just finished) he was going on about how I should be lynched if I were alive by LyLo (all lies lol), and I agreed to be killed by then if I hadn't fucked up the scumteam already.

But obviously being agreed to be killed on the condition that I pick wrong in LyLo only solves the "paranoia of Math-scum" issue, not the "Math choosing wrong" issue.

So I mixed things up cuz #phoneposting.
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Post Post #196 (isolation #57) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:47 am

Post by Mathdino »

What percent sure are you that Chickadee is scum? With 50% being totally random from your POV.
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Post Post #200 (isolation #58) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:59 am

Post by Mathdino »

Me agreeing to get shot in 3p LyLo boils what should objectively be a 2/3 chance by that point (because we get 2 kills and 3p) down to a 50/50. Which seems fine on the surface, but it's less than 100% likely we even get that far. Planning that out is strictly suboptimal for town.

The answer matters strategically.

Going on the assumption that the majority of people's top scumreads (even mine) are only slightly better than average, this is basically how the game gets lost by town:

- We lynch a scummy individual who actively campaigns for the lynch of a scummy townie. Scumteam helps orchestrate this lynch.

- Scumteam puts that person's top scumspect on the Miss List.

- Lynchee shoots, we lose.

I have a few strategies then, in increasing order of complexity.

A. If you get lynched, and your top scumspect is on the list, don't shoot them. Even if they're scum, there's a 75% chance of hitting scum elsewhere. Your reads would have to be at least 50% better than random in ordinary games to bet the game on it. Shoot randomly if you're around 75% sure (most people overstate their reads accuracy).

B. If you see your top scumspect on the list, don't immediately shoot them. Find any pair of players you believe can't both be scum (two pairs if you're feeling adventurous), and shoot randomly elsewhere.

I don't think we should discount the idea of shooting randomly from a pool of people. Scumteam might have sacrificial lambs in place already, i.e. people they know will likely get shot at night. It's better, IMO, to save those people for the lynches.

C. We use confscum Creature as a way to communicate with the dead. More on this in a bit.
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Post Post #201 (isolation #59) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:00 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 198, MagnaofIllusion wrote:NotMafia seems far too composed and putting on a similar “Look at me, I’m casual about not doing much to scum-hunt or help people sort me as Town” move that Creature is. The NotMafia I am familiar with is much more hyperactive and tries as Town even if his historic results have been poor. And while relational links are very weak pre-flip what I’m seeing with his interactions with Math also put him here.

Creature is lurking so hard that I am finding it harder to believe he is Town. Town Creature in games I’ve played with in the past (including a Something Smart joint) has been much more active.
You clearly know nothing of both Not_Mafia and Creature scumgames/towngames.

You should see N_M play vig sometime.
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Post Post #205 (isolation #60) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:06 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 200, Mathdino wrote:C. We use confscum Creature as a way to communicate with the dead. More on this in a bit.
Work in progress.

We (or whoever we lynch) create a list of 3 people who we propose to be the scumteam (besides Creature).

If whoever we lynch sees those 3 people on the Miss List, they shoot Creature. If not, they shoot elsewhere using their best judgment.

If Creature is shot, we have a pool of 3 people who must contain 2 or 3 scum. We lynch the towniest of the bunch, and if we hit town, we have that townie shoot between the other two based on whether a 4th person shows up on the Miss List.

If Creature is not shot, we reevaluate in the morning, knowing there's town in that group.
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Post Post #207 (isolation #61) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:07 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 203, CultOfAthena wrote:
In post 200, Mathdino wrote:C. We use confscum Creature as a way to communicate with the dead. More on this in a bit.
Nope, sorry. Already thought about this and don't think the mod appreciates it.
Wtf? How is that against the rules?
In post 204, CultOfAthena wrote:By the way, I don't see how any of that relates to you agreeing to what would be a game losing play if you were town?
It's not game losing if I pick right. It just agrees to what would be a 50/50 play. Like, I understand the concept of "Mathdino is scum when he's aggressively wrong". The solution is for me to not be aggressively wrong.
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Post Post #208 (isolation #62) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:15 am

Post by Mathdino »

Here's an example. If you lynch me, I will shoot Creature if and only if I see {Cult, Chick} and one of Bujaber/implosion.

If Creature dies in the morning, you know that Cult/Chick must contain scum. If one of them is town, you know Bujaber/implosion must contain scum.

If Creature DOESN'T die in the morning, you know that I did NOT see Cult/Chick/Buplosion, meaning that group must contain at least 2 town. This makes it optimal to lynch outside of that group, and force scummy people inside that group to sacrifice.

Rinse and repeat. If you lynch town tomorrow, they give a list of people they'll shoot Creature if they see.
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Post Post #209 (isolation #63) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:22 am

Post by Mathdino »

Following off of that,

VOTE: Cult

More than 50% likely to be scum IMO.

On scumflip, Chickadee should sacrifice, since she's self-admitted lynchbait and that was a transparent busplay.

On townflip, I trust this to shoot scum regardless of Chickadee's presence on the list.
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Post Post #211 (isolation #64) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

implosion and Cult are really the main people I trust to do setup-breaking with right now, but:

Given that we have confscum, and we can use them to communicate with the dead, at what point is it actually just better for us to lynch good but paranoia-generating players who are likely to be town? Lynching scum sends us into sacrifice WIFOM, which is not something I really want to get into.

If it seems like it's better to lynch town, I'll fall on the sword and try to come up with a plan to get maximum information out of what I see tonight. Cult is also a good candidate there I think.
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Post Post #212 (isolation #65) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 210, CultOfAthena wrote:That example would be a lot easier to parse if you didn't use "one of bu/implosion".

That vote is a scumclaim, by the way
.
in what universe do you actually believe this wtf
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Post Post #215 (isolation #66) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:31 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 213, CultOfAthena wrote:
In post 207, Mathdino wrote:It's not game losing if I pick right. It just agrees to what would be a 50/50 play. Like, I understand the concept of "Mathdino is scum when he's aggressively wrong". The solution is for me to not be aggressively wrong.
Have you ever agreed to "lynch him and then lynch me if I'm wrong" before?

Also, quoting this again for people's consideration. I still believe it's best to agree beforehand that two people should sacrifice.
In post 187, CultOfAthena wrote:On an unrelated note, I've been thinking about it, and I think the best play is to always have two people who we think are either the scummiest or who we think are scum together be the ones to sacrifice. If they're both scum, neither will be able to sacrifice and we'll essentially have two guilties, and in the other situations (one town and one scum or two town), I don't think we're any worse off than if just one person was set to sacrifice.
No, but I generally always say "you can read me by whether I'm alive at the end and I still haven't nailed scum". The more I'm right, the more likely it is I'm town. Plus, I don't do "lynch me if I'm wrong" precisely because I'm never that confident about my reads.
Were you looking for me just saying "No I won't agree to that because I'm town"? It's more complicated than that. The 50/50 seems fine on the surface but really takes us from a 2/3 to a 1/2 chance.

I'm not sure about the double sacrifice yet tbh. It seems like it's better only if we take the view of "we should avoid lynching town" which I'm not sure is true.
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Post Post #216 (isolation #67) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:46 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 214, CultOfAthena wrote:
In post 212, Mathdino wrote:
In post 210, CultOfAthena wrote:That example would be a lot easier to parse if you didn't use "one of bu/implosion".

That vote is a scumclaim, by the way
.
in what universe do you actually believe this wtf
I'm obvious town.
that is by no means true

besides i'm not voting you because you're my top scumread, i'm voting you in line with my current strategy which is "lynch strong players i'm paranoid of"
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Post Post #217 (isolation #68) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:03 am

Post by Mathdino »

Actually this strategy might work best on d2 with one scum down

It'll be probabilistically easier to call the scumteam on d2 than on d1

So in that case, I volunteer to be lynched on d2 as long as we keep creature alive
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Post Post #218 (isolation #69) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:13 am

Post by Mathdino »

let's resolve this instead

VOTE: Chickadee

tomorrow can be implosion me or cult
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Post Post #220 (isolation #70) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:30 am

Post by Mathdino »

I think she would've been lynched in anything upick had she not revealed as innocent child

Let's just lynch her if cult is so confident
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Post Post #223 (isolation #71) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:41 am

Post by Mathdino »

Lynching creature right now is strictly bad for town. Please see where I'm coming from
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Post Post #224 (isolation #72) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:42 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 221, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Putting aside the fact that Day 1 is the best time to lynch a player you don’t trust to generally shoot – please tell me more about NotMafia’s Vig prowess given you don’t trust him to shoot into a 80% scum pool Day 1 if he is Town.
He's terrible as vig, and doesn't really give a shit as town in my experience. My point is I don't think you really have the ability to read Not_Mafia
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Post Post #225 (isolation #73) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:44 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 221, MagnaofIllusion wrote:So is the point here you are more worried about not being perceived as playing to your scum meta?
Your game would be a lot easier if you actually fucking addressed my points instead of doing the asshole move of "OH I SEE SO EVERY POST YOU MAKE IS SCUM MOTIVATED"

You're ruining your own d1 by playing like this
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Post Post #229 (isolation #74) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:22 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Christ am I gonna have to play dumb or scum with the entire town
I am actually ashamed that the only townread I have that has good reads is Not_Mafia

Thor is good at scumhunting and has better than random reads
This is not thor
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Post Post #233 (isolation #75) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:31 pm

Post by Mathdino »

My reads on a couple players in this game have been historically better than random
If my read on you is correct, I have one confirmed good read already
I'm telling you to stop doing the thing where that one player in every game I play is determined to quote every single post I make and tell me how it makes me scum
Cuz I've seen about 15 of you too
You're always town
And you're always dead wrong and fail to acknowledge it at the end
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Post Post #234 (isolation #76) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:32 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 230, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Hey I’m on board with this plan as long as the lynched player is not the one to determine the list.
WHY WOULD YOU NOT LET THE SHOOTER DECIDE HOLY SHIT

The shooter has no reason to trust anyone but themselves given that a full half the game is scum

Dear God you're bad at opens my dude
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Post Post #235 (isolation #77) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:33 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 230, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Creature – Not Mafia – Buj – Math / Chicka (whoever we don’t lynch).
This is absolutely ridiculous and if you think you can force me to go along with YOUR list after having reads so bad that I'm you're top scumread next to my top townread

Jesus fuck
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Post Post #238 (isolation #78) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:36 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Magna I'm straight up not following your plan if you lynch me, you can't make me do that
I already posted my own proposed team, if you don't like it, do something else

The only reason I'm not pushing to just policy lynch your ass is that I gain 0 information from me/Not_Mafia being confirmed as not the scumteam

God this setup is the most annoying shit
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Post Post #239 (isolation #79) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:39 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Current team is Chick/implosion/Creature and then BuJaber or Heath btw
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Post Post #242 (isolation #80) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:42 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Why not just resolve cult/chick right now?

I'd rather implosion be the d2 lynch given that I trust town him to setupbreak
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Post Post #244 (isolation #81) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:44 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I agree as of last page

But then why not trust her reads over taking down implosion
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Post Post #246 (isolation #82) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:49 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Scum is probably gonna start neverbussing pretty soon here considering how paranoid town is getting of bussing
Especially if daytalk or nights longer than a day

We're not more likely to be able pull a lynch on scum tomorrow

We'll still be in Lylo numbers
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Post Post #247 (isolation #83) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:51 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Ebwop: less likely
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Post Post #249 (isolation #84) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:58 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Will doing so actually help you determine my alignment?

Being able to write coherent paragraphs isn't AI for me lol
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Post Post #251 (isolation #85) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:14 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Idk i feel like the onus is on you to prove my read changes are strategic given that you're the one scumreading me

Like it just feels like a waste of time seeing as I don't have to convince you of anything since we're already voting together

And in the case that you're town I already agree BuJaber scum if not panther
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Post Post #253 (isolation #86) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:27 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 70, Not_Mafia wrote:Magna is hard to read cos he's stuck in site meta of like 6-7 years ago
Helpful in an unhelpful Not_Mafia way
Shows actual nuanced attempt to read Magna
Town
In post 73, Not_Mafia wrote:VOTE: Heath

I think it's Creature and Heath, Creature will reveal himself before long anyway
Diving after the lurker, shows that he's thinking in PoE, agendaless
Town
In post 97, Not_Mafia wrote:lol I forgot this was 5-4
Towntell, check the timestamps, this was like 30 minutes later
Unplanned
Town
In post 98, Not_Mafia wrote:Heath, Creature, Chick, implosion
Gamesolve
Town
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Post Post #254 (isolation #87) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:28 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Oh yeah and implosion interrogating me about my read on Creature's 2 posts makes me think he already knew Creats was scum and was getting a leg up

I don't think creatures first 2 posts could've been anything but null
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Post Post #262 (isolation #88) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:53 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Yeah townbloc complete
Mathdino
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Panther

God help me try to get this to function though
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Post Post #268 (isolation #89) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:04 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Honestly the presence of a player like creature in this setup kinda breaks things for town
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Post Post #269 (isolation #90) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:10 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 265, Not_Mafia wrote:I'm not convinced by Panther

VOTE: Chickadee

Magna sacrifices
It would probably be better for both of us if you sacrificed instead
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Post Post #270 (isolation #91) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:30 pm

Post by Mathdino »

So are we just waiting for Chickadee to propose a scumteam or what
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Post Post #273 (isolation #92) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 6:04 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Do you think you're doing well?
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Post Post #275 (isolation #93) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 6:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I really don't think magna is scum

Why is cult town from your pov
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Post Post #277 (isolation #94) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 6:29 pm

Post by Mathdino »

OHHHHH
OK yeah cult is town, I completely forgot that tunneling used to be a factor in their playstyle

In that case yeah i don't have many better ideas for scum from your pov

Maybe Panther?
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Post Post #284 (isolation #95) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:09 am

Post by Mathdino »

How much of your scumread is based on me being scum with Not_Mafia?

Because if that's literally the extent of it, I could just say "all townies who see both me and Not_Mafia on the list can go ahead and shoot N_M." laden with WIFOM, but it does test your idea.
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Post Post #286 (isolation #96) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:19 am

Post by Mathdino »

Because if we both live through the night, it means we're both town. Magnas scumread on me seems to be entirely based around the idea that I'm bussing Not_Mafia.
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Post Post #288 (isolation #97) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:35 am

Post by Mathdino »

It would also ensure one of us is for sure scum tho
And given that magna is so obsessed with Not_Mafia/me scumteam, I'm saying it would be optimal fmpov to just say "shoot Not_Mafia if you see us both"

If Not_Mafia flips scum, I'll lynch myself tomorrow
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Post Post #290 (isolation #98) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:47 am

Post by Mathdino »

I'm actually kind of disappointed that no one else who's played with Not_Mafia before is realising he's town
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Post Post #291 (isolation #99) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:53 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 279, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Frankly because the cares of the lynched player are much less important than getting information useful to those living Town players left alive. The role of the lynched player (assuming Town) is 100% to communicate to the living players whether the list of 4 is all represented on the Miss List or not. That's all. Remember - the living players are those who have to go forward. Getting a consensus (even if some input is from scum ... it is going to have to be) of what list of 4 to send also provides information going forward as to what players wanted what names on the list. Heck you could even have every non-lynch target player name the 4 they want and do a straight point tally. The point is to either lock in that at least 2 of the 3 names on the list are scum (with Creature being dead) or provide "Can't all be scum together" information for endgame.

As to scum being able to skew the input - um ... that's really irrelevant.
That's ridiculous. You're just doing the "YOLO I'm better than everyone else" in reverse.

1. The cares of the lynched player are all that matter, because LITERALLY HALF THE REST OF THE GAME IS SCUM FROM THEIR POV. The lynched player and any dead townies are ALL they can trust. What if the player isn't townreading you?

2. Say I get lynched. The fact that me and my top townread are your top scumreads already proves to me that my reads are significantly better than yours this game. I also have more experience with most of this playerlist, and the fact that you're still not lockscum on Creature REALLY shows how little you know of Creature's scumgame.
So why the fuck should I listen to you?

3. A point tally is going to be won by scum. Town never agrees on anything. Scum have an inherent day advantage here.

You're dangerously naive. If I got you lynched and then tried to force you to use my proposed scumteam, would you do it?
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Post Post #294 (isolation #100) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:10 am

Post by Mathdino »

Again. You're gonna have a real hard time convincing me your reads are worth following over my own when you're

1. Trying to lynch me

2. Trying to lynch my next top townread

3. Not even lockscumreading Creature

4. Hardtownreading implosion who FMPOV must be scum

Your reads are literally equivalent to rolling the fucking dice FMPOV.

I never said my reads are ZOMGAMAZING. I've played with Not_Mafia, Creature, and CultOfAthena more than you have, and I'm currently townreading you, which is accurate from your POV. Note that those are the only reads that I've displayed a great deal of confidence in. implosion, Bujaber, Panther and Chickadee are all basically "take it or leave it" reads.

The ONLY benefit to the Creature plan is that the lynched player gets to call the scumteam and test their hypothesis. If the scumteam is wrong, the guess was useless. PoEing out a single FOUR PERSON SCUMTEAM is utterly useless given how unlikely those calls are anyway.

Chrissake you're arguing with me over my own fucking strategy here and telling me you have more of a right to tell me how to operate than I do. What if I were scumreading you? Should I still listen to you?

You've shown 0 effort in working with me despite my experience with others, and you've assumed that any indication of confidence in my reads must be either
A. scum who is alignment informed
or
B. a "piss poor attitude" that thinks I'm "god-Mafia Player Supreme" when I can recognise that my reads are, in general, SLIGHTLY better than random, and when I've played with and successfully read half this playerlist more than you have.
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Post Post #296 (isolation #101) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:12 am

Post by Mathdino »

Cult town
Magna town
Not_Mafia town
Me town
I literally need one town in the 4 of you and I don't choose you, Pikachu
Could be wrong but there's like a 18% chance I'm wrong
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Post Post #298 (isolation #102) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:55 am

Post by Mathdino »

Hey Not_Mafia can you sacrifice tonight so I can sheep your reads tomorrow and not be called scum with you repeatedly
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Post Post #299 (isolation #103) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:14 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Wait are we just not going to acknowledge that that was the hammer
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Post Post #300 (isolation #104) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:24 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 272, Chickadee wrote:Alright. Scum team.

Creature (OBVSCUM)

Otherwise:
BuJaber
MagnaofIllusion
implosion
Okay so if you're town and see this scumteam, go ahead and shoot Creature. Otherwise, use best judgment. Remember that WIFOM is a thing given that scum know your reads.

If this flips scum,

I request that Not_Mafia and BuJaber both opt to sacrifice.


N_M because apparently people who claimed to have been able to read him suddenly can't read him (here's to you, Cult). Bujaber because he's a clear null slot for almost every player.

I'm not sacrificing because I created a potential breaking strategy and I'm sure as hell living to tomorrow to see it. I will accept being lynched tomorrow in order to test out my own scumteam.

Creature isn't sacrificing because he's scum. Magna isn't sacrificing because Magna. I want implosion and Cult both around tomorrow even if they're scum. Panther is a nullslot.
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Post Post #302 (isolation #105) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:00 pm

Post by Mathdino »

If they're both town, one randomly dies. If only one is town, mafia has the option of stopping their kill.
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Post Post #303 (isolation #106) » Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:00 pm

Post by Mathdino »

> implying mod is going to answer your question before locking the thread

not_mafia hammered and literally no one noticed lol
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Post Post #310 (isolation #107) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:15 am

Post by Mathdino »

cult get better at the game

2 or more of Magna, Bujaber, and implosion are scum

also means my townbloc of N_M, Magna, Cult, and Panther has scum in it

if we lynch town, they can communicate to us the rest of the miss list, while also being ensured to have scum on the list to shoot

so i believe we should try to lynch town today
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Post Post #312 (isolation #108) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:17 am

Post by Mathdino »

i mean we should lynch town in magna/bujaber/implosion

although there might be some merit to lynching town outside of that and trying to get the 4th scum (assuming that is not literally the scumteam)
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Post Post #314 (isolation #109) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

okay well

let's assume for a second that there's 1 town in magna/bujaber/implosion

because if that's literally the scumteam, it's 100% game over

Scumbloc: Magna, Bujaber, implosion
Townbloc: Mathdino, Not_Mafia, Cult, Panther

Miss List can be any of 6 options:
Math/N_M
Math/Cult
Math/Panther
N_M/Cult
N_M/Panther
Cult/Panther

I'm trying to see if there's any option for us to give Magna a binary choice while still giving us information about the remaining scum (i.e. scum can't just mess with the results).

Now that I think about it, I'm not actually sure that's possible though. So maybe we should just lynch scum lol
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Post Post #317 (isolation #110) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:34 am

Post by Mathdino »

That's certainly the obvious team, yeah.

VOTE: implosion

Thinking we should lynch scum and have {Bujaber, Magna, Panther} all sacrifice. If no one in that bloc dies, then we've gamesolved.

If Panther dies, then lynch Bujaber and have Magna + 1 sacrifice IMO. If Magna dies, lynch Bujaber and have Panther + 1 sacrifice.

Trying to figure out whether the +1 should be Cult or N_M, but we don't really have to figure that out today.
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Post Post #319 (isolation #111) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:39 am

Post by Mathdino »

He will if he has a soft guilty on him. He's 100% the lynch in the next two days if he doesn't.
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Post Post #321 (isolation #112) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:41 am

Post by Mathdino »

Maybe my read on Magna was wrong?

The whole "the reads of the lynched player don't matter" is a blatant attempt to wrestle power from whatever dead now-conftown we end up lynching.

Like I've been kinda going with a "too scummy to be scum" argument with Magna, assuming he wouldn't:

- Trounce all over my Magna/N_M theory with a stupid Math/N_M theory
- Outright ignore my reads on players that I've played with more
- Literally tell to-be-lynched players that his proposed scumteam is more important than theirs
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Post Post #322 (isolation #113) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:42 am

Post by Mathdino »

I'm pretty down to just lynch whoever doesn't volunteer to sacrifice then. That's clearly not only most likely to flip scum, but also highest utility for our strategy.
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Post Post #324 (isolation #114) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 323, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Quick phone post - optimal play is to lynch Town within the me / Implosion / Buj group and have a list with remaining two and scummiest player left outside group.

Since I know I’m Town I volunteer for rope today. For shits and grins force Imp and Buj to agree to sacrifice.

When I get to computer tonight I’ll reread and figure out best info to be gained from third list member.
- I'm having trouble finding out how information can be gleaned from the town lynch honestly. I think we're better off just lynching scum and forcing sacrifices.

- ...if you're town imp and Bujaber can't sacrifice tho?
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Post Post #326 (isolation #115) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:46 am

Post by Mathdino »

Panther who's the scum in me, cult and Not_Mafia

That's legit all we need to discuss at this point
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Post Post #327 (isolation #116) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:04 pm

Post by Mathdino »

...guys?

me/not_mafia should not be the only active players lol
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Post Post #329 (isolation #117) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:34 pm

Post by Mathdino »

UNVOTE:

obviously

also that's a scumclaim
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Post Post #331 (isolation #118) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:45 pm

Post by Mathdino »

great, so you're town in theory

that means magna/implosion is scum

who's the last scum

we need that person to sacrifice so
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Post Post #333 (isolation #119) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Soooooo
you're saying that after sheeping Magna's read on me (Magna who is now confirmed scum to you)
and after saying N_M's flip determines my alignment (how? we can't BOTH be scum)
and after saying that Cult was our best lynch yesterday along with Chickadee

you're telling me the third scum could be ANY of {N_M, Math, Panther}?

So that means you're hard TRing Cult, yeah?
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Post Post #336 (isolation #120) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:26 pm

Post by Mathdino »

The setup is broken by having a player as easily readable as Creature imo. We wouldn't be in this position otherwise.

Meanwhile, if Creature were town, he would conf himself as town and the entire rest of the town could just repeatedly sacrifice in order to carry him to 3p endgame.
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Post Post #338 (isolation #121) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:46 am

Post by Mathdino »

See, I already went through that. N_M and Panther CAN'T both show up on the list, because there are only 3 scum left and implo/Buj are confirmed scum to you.

In fact, I don't think there's any possible information to be gleaned that mafia can't just mess with by adding the correct townie to the Miss List.

So with that, I think our best call is to lynch scum, and decide which of the 4 of us is the best designated sacrifice.
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Post Post #341 (isolation #122) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:17 pm

Post by Mathdino »

so is cult coming back or what
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Post Post #342 (isolation #123) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:25 pm

Post by Mathdino »

mfw cultofathena has literally already signed up for another game

that's gonna be a necessary lynch before not_mafia imo

VOTE: implosion

Magna/Bujaber sacrifice to confirm yourself as town


Cult sacrifice because literally not playing the game


no matter what, there's at least one town in here

if there's 2 town, one will successfully sacrifice and we can reevaluate

therefore if no one on this list dies, we've confirmed our lynchpool to win the game
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Post Post #345 (isolation #124) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:31 pm

Post by Mathdino »

and if you're wrong?
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Post Post #346 (isolation #125) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:33 pm

Post by Mathdino »

the most likely scenario if you're correct that it's panther or not_mafia is that scum just put the other one on the miss list

shoot confscum

then tomorrow we lynch the other confscum and demand panther/n_m sacrifice

that way one of them can be safely flipped

and we can just lynch the other (or lynch cult if she still decides to literally not play)
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Post Post #348 (isolation #126) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:40 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Chickadee was lynched, guessing the scumteam to be Creature/Magna/Bujaber/implosion. She said that if she saw all 4 of these on the Miss List, she would shoot Creature.

Creature was shot. This means that either:
A. Magna/Bujaber/implosion is the scumteam
B. 2 of Magna/Bujaber/implosion are scum, and the scum put the 3rd on the Miss List to bait the Creature shot.

Scumbloc (2 or 3 scum): Magna/Bujaber/implosion
Townbloc (3 or 4 town): Mathdino, Not_Mafia, Panther, Cult

If the scumteam is Magna/Bujaber/implosion, we win by lynching them all.

If the scumteam is 2 of the scumbloc and 1 of the townbloc, our goal is to find one scum between Mathdino/N_M/Panther/Cult.

We lynched implosion.

If implosion is scum:
Magna, Bujaber, and Cult should sacrifice. If none of them die, we can auto-win.

If implosion is town:
This confirms Magna/Bujaber as scum. He shoots one, we lynch the other, and demand a sacrifice out of Math/N_M/Panth/Cult.
If the game's not over by then, we go to 3p LyLo where we have a 66% chance of winning.
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Post Post #351 (isolation #127) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:50 pm

Post by Mathdino »

literally hasn't posted at all since before the day end

has already signed up for another game just today

like i get that activity telling is unfair but that's kind of ridiculous

and to me is a tell for "i can't win solo after all 3 of my scumbuddies die"
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Post Post #354 (isolation #128) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:54 pm

Post by Mathdino »

because if we're wrong, and if there's town in the scumbloc, we have a 33% chance of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
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Post Post #355 (isolation #129) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:54 pm

Post by Mathdino »

implo self hammered my dude
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Post Post #360 (isolation #130) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:59 pm

Post by Mathdino »

i would assume that we'd all get a PM if we lynch scum

and fucking lol implosion has to be trolling, i know he's smarter than this
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Post Post #362 (isolation #131) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:35 pm

Post by Mathdino »

i purposefully ended the day my friend

i knew i was L-1ing him

i'm not gonna sit around and wait for cult to get replaced
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Post Post #368 (isolation #132) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 2:21 am

Post by Mathdino »

N_M you should unvote that

we should be lynching between confscum
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Post Post #371 (isolation #133) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 2:26 am

Post by Mathdino »

VOTE: Bujaber

bujaber publicly "sacrificing" is a hilarious kind of scumclaim tbh

magna should probably concede if he's the last scum cuz yeah this is an autolynch tomorrow if not sacrificed already
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Post Post #376 (isolation #134) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:42 am

Post by Mathdino »

i gotta hand it to manga man, he's making an incredible argument for us not lynching him
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Post Post #377 (isolation #135) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:53 am

Post by Mathdino »

i mean except in the case of actual confirmed scum present on D1

lynching scum is always better

if we lynch the town in magna/bujaber, they shoot confirmed scum, and we gain nothing

if they try to plan out anything, scum will just add the right person to the miss list to fuck them over

however, if we lynch the scum in magna/bujaber, we gain another day for scum to use up their sacrifice stopper
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Post Post #379 (isolation #136) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:12 pm

Post by Mathdino »

why would scum ever decide to kill cult after we just told her to sacrifice

occam's razor says she checked in and went with the plan

my knowledge of cult as a player suggests she checked completely out of the game after ruining D1 with her tunnel on chickadee and fell on the sword so she wouldn't have to play this setup after everyone was inevitably going to activity tell her (as she gets very annoyed when people try)
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Post Post #380 (isolation #137) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:13 pm

Post by Mathdino »

i really don't understand how you can be this un-self-aware of how bad your reads have been this entire game tbh
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Post Post #385 (isolation #138) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:22 pm

Post by Mathdino »

My town on end of d1 was you, me, cult, and Not_Mafia
The only townie I didn't catch was Chickadee, who I talked extensively about how mislynchbaity she is

Your town was yourself and implosion xD
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Post Post #386 (isolation #139) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:23 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Like you're literally the last person I trust to make the right shot
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Post Post #387 (isolation #140) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:29 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Btw there's actually a solid chance the only way Not_Mafia is this good is if he's deepwolfing tbh
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Post Post #390 (isolation #141) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:31 pm

Post by Mathdino »

I have been infected by MU

Edit: yeah basically
The opposite of burden of proficiency
Burden of shitposting
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Post Post #392 (isolation #142) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:33 pm

Post by Mathdino »

You're a smash hit, Not_Mafia
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Post Post #394 (isolation #143) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:35 pm

Post by Mathdino »

You realise that a BuJaber Panther scumteam would just vote magna and watch magna self hammer

Then put me on the miss list and have magna shoot me to win

We might not have the votes
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Post Post #395 (isolation #144) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:37 pm

Post by Mathdino »

Magna you spent all of d1 tunneling me and Not_Mafia scumteam on the basis of a shitty bus

You don't get to come in here bragging about how you'll 100% shoot scum if you ever get lynched

Just hammer confscum please
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Post Post #407 (isolation #145) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:14 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 398, PantherPunt wrote:Mathdino who are you on MU?

Also- did you read magnas plan and can you poke any holes in it in the world where I'm town (As in- don't say "ya..if you're scum, then 'XYZ'. pretend to know I'm town and think/answer)
In the case that you're town, Magna's plan involves lynching town-Magna and:

- If he sees you and one of me/N_M on the Miss List, he shoots not-you
- If he sees me and N_M, he just shoots confscum Bujaber

This is exactly equivalent to just lynching confscum Bujaber and having Magna and whoever we're lynching tomorrow sacrifice.

If you're town, mafia is gonna say "well I'd rather Bujaber get shot" and whichever of me/N_M is scum just puts the other one on the list to force that shot.

Basically, the plan is a case of Fancy Play Syndrome. It adds nothing because scum can just tailor the Miss List to whatever plan we write.

And I just read MU for the articles :P
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Post Post #408 (isolation #146) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:15 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 404, PantherPunt wrote:
In post 401, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Chicka shot Creature on a list of Me / Impl / Creature / Buj

She was only supposed to shoot Creature if all four were on the 5 person Miss List. So unless Chicka went rogue (which I have no reason to think she would) at least 3 of the four on the list have to be scum for her to shoot Creature.

Truth be told he's only Conf Scum from my point of view. So you do need to exercise your judgement. But I know for certain he's scum based on the Creature shot and knowing I'm Town so when I get lynched and go to shoot I know he's showing up with two other players on my Miss List.
How were those 4 names selected? Who made that plan? And what we she to do if that result wasn't the case?

I'll definitely read it now but it is helping me read the game to have you talk about it
I told Chickadee to call the scumteam, and she called Magna/implo/Creature/Bujaber. That was it, it was just a good read from her.

I made the plan.

If she sees all 4 names, she shoots Creature. If she doesn't see all 4 names, she shoots based on her best judgment.
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Post Post #410 (isolation #147) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:48 pm

Post by Mathdino »

you're obviously neglect the fact that you're for whatever reason willing to bet the entire game on the idea that panther is town

and that scum-panther wouldn't just put me or not_mafia on the miss list in order to get town shot

i'm floored that you somehow think panther is more likely to be town than both me and not_mafia
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Post Post #412 (isolation #148) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:00 pm

Post by Mathdino »

if panther is scum with bujaber then you're essentially throwing the game over your own shitty read

we lynch scum, this is fucking simple

scum will only lynch town if they feel like your reads are bad

that's literally the only scenario in which you get enough votes to lynch yourself -- scum thinks "magna's reads are shitty enough that we can lynch him and win the game"
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Post Post #415 (isolation #149) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:16 pm

Post by Mathdino »

i mean i'm gonna be honest with you, the primary reason i don't want to do this plan is because if you're scum, this plan literally loses the game FMPOV
he's arguing this whole READ BETWEEN THE LINES, MATHDINO IS MANIPULATING YOU
when like, no fucking shit, i'm doing what wins the game FMPOV

if magna and you are both town, and not_mafia is scum, this plan is exactly identical to "lynch bujaber, have one of magna/N_M/panther sacrifice, lynch N_M in the morning"

at the same time, keep in mind that again, the only way magna has enough votes to get lynched is if scum feel like he's going to shoot wrong

you can vote for magna, and he'll vote himself, but bujaber only votes him if bujaber knows this is a bad plan
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Post Post #417 (isolation #150) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:20 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 413, PantherPunt wrote:Math- show me magnas road to victory if he is scum with bujb and suggesting this plan?

Why is it that you're hardclearing notmafia? Maybe I'm wrong but it feels like you're not at all considering bujb+nm

Pedit I'm posting this then reading that
In post 414, PantherPunt wrote:Aorn I'm rolling with magna

You can lolme as hard as you'd like if he is mafia, but you've failed to tell me how he wins with this plan if he is mafia (unless bubj is town in which case it seems we can blame someone else)

Mathdino sounds desperate to not go in this direction but the only logic of that is me being scum, which I'm not, so ya
- there's no path to victory, we always lynch bujaber and magna in that order today and tomorrow. like, he's asking to be lynched right now.

- i'm hardclearing not_mafia because i've played with him 6 or 7 times now, and while people like magna and me-from-7-games-ago think N_M is unreadable, multiple players are on record for finding him VERY EASILY READABLE, and i've figured out how
i've always had in the back of my mind the idea that N_M's reads are only this good if he's scum
but if that's true, and N_M is deepwolfing by just lynching all the scum in succession
then it literally benefits me to keep N_M around and to not explicitly talk about how i'd be willing to lynch him in lylo
this setup has no nightkill mechanic; in the case of scum-N_M, my plan was to basically hardclear him, let him lynch scum for me since that's pretty clearly the plan, and then reevaluate at the end
but occam's razor says my read is just correct and he's town
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Post Post #420 (isolation #151) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:42 pm

Post by Mathdino »

i've been treating you like that since literally page 2 of the game

magna all you've done so far is do the whole OH READ BETWEEN MATHDINOS WORDS, THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SCUM-HIM

well no shit, any plan i make involves me not dying

but also consider that scum-me can literally just lynch you and put not_mafia on the miss list to force you to shoot bujaber

why have i not done that yet?

you haven't shown how my play is inconsistent with town-me

in fact you're ignoring that my play is outright inconsistent with scum-me, in that your plan does fuckall if i'm scum, and i can just end the goddamn game already by lynching you

but i'm town, and i'm afraid that panther-scum puts me on the list and has you shoot me

what i'm trying to argue is that your plan isn't even robust enough to get past scum-me, and you're so far up your own ass that you think this is the ultimate solution to scum-mathdino

the solution to scum-mathdino isn't in night actions, it's just by lynching me straight up instead of fucking lynching yourself
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Post Post #421 (isolation #152) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:46 pm

Post by Mathdino »

also my whole "you only get lynched if your plan sucks" argument is directed at magna

magna, N_M and i will literally never lynch you

the only possible situation in which you get lynched is if bujaber and panther both pile onto you and you self-vote

which will ONLY happen if bujaber knows your plan is horse-shit

so the question is, would you rather lynch a wagon you KNOW FOR SURE is scum-motivated (yourself)

or just fucking lynch confscum already and get this shit over with
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Post Post #423 (isolation #153) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:49 pm

Post by Mathdino »

In post 422, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 420, Mathdino wrote:but also consider that scum-me can literally just lynch you and put not_mafia on the miss list to force you to shoot bujaber

why have i not done that yet?
Because that clears Panther 100% since he isn't on the Miss List and thus dooms you to lose.

Why do you think somehow this is a damning refutation of the plan when it was already accounted for in the plan?
SO WHY WOULD BUJABER EVER GIVE YOU YOUR VOTE?
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Post Post #425 (isolation #154) » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:55 pm

Post by Mathdino »

not_mafia remember that one game where i held up 7 other players by refusing to lynch literal confscum

and then led my own scum-driven wagon on you with confscum and hammered you while you weren't even online

suddenly

i understand.
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Post Post #427 (isolation #155) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 2:35 am

Post by Mathdino »

happy easter!
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Post Post #429 (isolation #156) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 2:37 am

Post by Mathdino »

okay but seriously can we please just lynch confscum already
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Post Post #432 (isolation #157) » Sun Apr 01, 2018 2:39 am

Post by Mathdino »

omfg

panther you asked me directly, what the problem with the plan is under the assumption that you're town

so i answered under the assumption that you're town

yet you're telling me that i'm taking a completely different line to not_mafia
when you specifically requested that different line
and you're calling me scum for it...?


dude underneath all of this motivation is me being terrified that you're scum and magna is going to singlehandedly lose the game by self-lynching with the entire scumteam

and then shoot

not confscum

not you

but me or not_mafia

who he only originally even fucking thought were scum because he insisted all game that we were the fucking scumteam
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Post Post #451 (isolation #158) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:39 am

Post by Mathdino »

Wow my least ideal lylo

Fucking told you guys I can read him
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Post Post #453 (isolation #159) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:55 am

Post by Mathdino »

i assume by that you're literally saying that you're ready to shoot me
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Post Post #454 (isolation #160) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:58 am

Post by Mathdino »

magna why does mathdino-scum take you to lylo instead of not_mafia

actually just lay out your entire fucking case on me because i don't think you ever once explained the scum indicativeness (or at least what's inconsistent with town me) outside of "mathdino is scum bussing not_mafia"
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Post Post #455 (isolation #161) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:02 am

Post by Mathdino »

like you're putting me in a position where i basically can't afford to townread you

you literally proposed a plan yesterday that FMPOV, assuming you're town, would've instantly lost us the game

which is now proven by not_mafia flipping town (just as predicted)

so honestly what the fuck reason is there for me to not just lynch you based solely on burden of proficiency
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Post Post #457 (isolation #162) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:27 am

Post by Mathdino »

VOTE: Mathdino

then vote me and i'm taking the fucking shot
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Post Post #458 (isolation #163) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:29 am

Post by Mathdino »

In post 456, MagnaofIllusion wrote:If you think you look obvTown by being a “better than you” avatar since page 1 you really need to take your own advice on self reflection.

FMPOV you have spent this entire game shitting all over me in an attempt to be TownKing which I’ve seen far too often from scum over the years. You may think you are a special snowflake but it’s all old hat to me.
this is completely ridiculous

i'm telling you that time and time again your reads have been proven dead fucking wrong yet you still keep 100% confidence in them regardless of what happens to the gamestate

you're absolutely right i've been doing that

because FMPOV it takes ONE BAD TOWNIE to lose this entire game and somehow not_fucking_mafia had reads three times as good as yours despite your shitting all over him

you can't tell me "you think you're a special snowflake" (and fuck off btw) and call me scum in the same sentence
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Post Post #459 (isolation #164) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:31 am

Post by Mathdino »

like what even has your read on me been

if you think i'm being an asshole trying to control the town and thinking i'm amazing and have the best reads ever

then doesn't that just mean i'm town?

you've done 0 meta on me, you've made 0 effort to actually determine my alignment, you've just held on to a shitty page 2 read based on a bad associative
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Post Post #461 (isolation #165) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:33 am

Post by Mathdino »

you're either the least valuable town player i've ever seen since RC ruined 3 games simultaneously

or an actually pretty great scum player, and hats off to you

convince me you're not scum here
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Post Post #462 (isolation #166) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:38 am

Post by Mathdino »

smart's online dude

literally do not have all day
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Post Post #464 (isolation #167) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:41 am

Post by Mathdino »

you do realise RC ruined those games over awful reads and driving the town over a cliff repeatedly

what the fuck is your problem with me this game
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Post Post #467 (isolation #168) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:48 am

Post by Mathdino »

well done magna

i played dumb or scum and chose dumb, ignoring my usual burden of proficiency tell

shot panther because his ISO had practically 0 mention of the scumteam, only talked about reads on townies
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Post Post #468 (isolation #169) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:49 am

Post by Mathdino »

also the fact that panther was caving to your plan on D3 read very badly on him

couldn't understand how town would've been okay with that one
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Post Post #469 (isolation #170) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:52 am

Post by Mathdino »

i'm not really into this setup in practice btw

it just seems to offer very little in the way of reward either way for lynching town vs lynching scum

confirmed scum creature should've broken the game open had N_M and i not gotten played

it's balanced in theory, sure, but that just means it comes down to that 3p lylo 90% of the time

and town either loses to the deepwolf, or lol their way into a win
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Post Post #472 (isolation #171) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:57 am

Post by Mathdino »

yeah it's really not

anyway what i learned from this game

is that when a supposedly good player that you just met is continually awful throughout the entire game and spouts scumsided advice

you just lynch them for it instead of assuming that they came from a different site meta
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Post Post #474 (isolation #172) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:02 am

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it makes the setup unfun

i mean the other thing we learn here is that when you create a breaking strategy you just follow it

had town followed the strategy they'd have won; this was a distinct case of me going with reads over mechanics

but yeah the majority of the talk was about what the fuck to do at night rather than who to lynch and that just made it not super mafia-esque
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Post Post #476 (isolation #173) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:09 am

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i mean sure but there's always going to be one player that's 100% readable by another player one way or the other

had creature been town, we would've just been able to bust our asses to sacrifice in order to keep him alive

i don't like the idea of a points system mixing with the miss list system really; it's the centrepiece of perpetual mylo while here it'd just be a bandaid

i just think it's one of those mechanics that's better in theory than in execution
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Post Post #477 (isolation #174) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 9:13 am

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also, re: the ego thing

i never meant to imply to everyone else that my reads were great, or that i'm objectively the best town player ever

i meant to imply that, from magna's POV, my reads were almost 100% on point due to me townreading him and scumreading panther FMPOV

so the "my reads are better than yours" was specifically trying to appeal to a hypothetical town magna

obviously none of that applies in the case where i get fuckin played

and this turned out to be that case

still, my beef is things like

- what does D1 even matter? town is not going to shoot wrong on D1

- as a result, town can lynch scum 3 times in a row and still lose. that seems unfair

- conversely, scum can lynch town 4 times in a row and still lose.

it makes the setup straight up not based around dayplay. it's interesting as a gimmick but not really the MafiaScum Way :P
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Post Post #481 (isolation #175) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 10:10 am

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also in retrospect panther should 100% have been the sacrifice

i don't know why the plan on that changed

i wasn't around when that decision was made :/
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Post Post #485 (isolation #176) » Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:34 am

Post by Mathdino »

I was put in a position where either of you would've shot me

I self voted so I could be the one to take the shot

Not_Mafia was the only one super lock townread I had and was the only one townreading me

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