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Post #819 (isolation #211) » Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:05 pm
Postby Costello »
i am still playing ffxiii sorry i am very burnt out on rereading games atm
farkran softed by saying hectic had no friends/was alone, put that together with already knowing PTs exist due to raven mech, not too hard to put 2 and 2 together
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Post #825 (isolation #212) » Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:40 am
Postby Costello »
In post 823, Farkran wrote:i think nobody fakeclaimed with the possible exception of Costello but once again that's just heavy paranoia
I'm sorry but what lmao
I could absolutely be mafia but how on earth am I the one who might be mechanically fakeclaiming lmfao
Confirmed to be Eve by PoE/public rolenames, the vote was redirected to someone else yesterday, confirmed due to my role via Ydrasse investigation of catboi, multiple softs of dead bird/Raven, me/catboi actively communicating with lyrics all day, was the Raven, and me unilaterally redirecting without the in-between would in fact be ridiculously busted
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Post #826 (isolation #213) » Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:42 am
Postby Costello »
Like I guess if you're saying I'm fakeclaiming the part about me/catboi having a PT? Then maybe? I can go back and cite specific instances of coding, though, that are....very clear and conclusive when given context
In post 331, Gamma Emerald wrote:The way Flea’s reacted to Ydrasse’s push looks like town based on how fae pushed back against her two-faced advance
Ydrasse I think has genuine paranoia but could also be genuine-sounding scum, so I want her opinions on other slots since I doubt she can fake those other reads as well if scum
In post 338, Gamma Emerald wrote:It looks like Ydrasse is trying to say two things at once there (you have and have not been cautious)
Ydrasse, your response? This is the second thing I’ve noticed of this type from you
In post 338, Gamma Emerald wrote:It looks like Ydrasse is trying to say two things at once there (you have and have not been cautious)
Ydrasse, your response? This is the second thing I’ve noticed of this type from you
what? i’m saying i don’t think she’s done anything especially cautious that’s worth pointing out so far wrt the early wagon as i thought that’s what hectic was basing off of
In post 343, Ydrasse wrote:what second thing have you noticed and have you pointed it out before someone prodded you on me?
But like
Hectic said she wasn’t being cautious
It looks like you ended up agreeing with him as such
And you’ve had confusing takes on Flea (which looks paranoia-driven) and madeline (which seems like you started disagreeing with hectic on some level but reached the exact conclusion he did)
Maybe I'm not giving Gamma enough credit but I think scum!Gamma lacks this kind of nuance when giving reads on partners. Critiquing your partners is not particularly difficult. It's mostly this interaction I have her as town for tbh
You are absolutely not giving scum Gamma enough credit but I'm lazy and really don't want to go digging to prove it but I will at some point.
I'd encourage you to review the spat with Ydrasse and Flea's latest mechanical solving. I really do not think fae are mafia. In contrast, I think Ydrasse really was not out to fairly evaluate the slot. Whether because she's mafia or because she's frustrated, who knows? Similarly, I think Farkran's thought processes are both clear and natural in a way that I suspect he does not have down pat as scum. I'm not 100% sold-only like 80%-but this game would be a step up for sure.
And oh god looking through these games Gamma has some really fucking horrendous habits as mafia that are outright gamelosing but I'll save those for next time.
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Post #846 (isolation #223) » Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:02 pm
Postby Costello »
I'll type up a more thorough response in a bit when I have time just out of appreciation for the effort that took, me being lighthearted probably doesn't help when you're clearly demotivated already.
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Post #847 (isolation #224) » Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:12 pm
Postby Costello »
I'm actually kind of mafia'd out for the day so it'll hold off until probably tomorrow depending on how I'm feeling, but I'll do you a solid and promise to meta Flea and read the same games you're describing, potentially at the risk of my sanity.
What other things do you think I should be looking at/what could I potentially do to help you or myself out?
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Post #851 (isolation #226) » Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:35 pm
Postby Costello »
Essentially, I find everyone but you hardtown in ways that I think are out of their range.
Spoiler: Specifically for each player
madeline's weird progression around me, some of the interactions with Gamma. Flea's reaction to you pushing them, fae's treatment of madeline, and Flea's mechanical solution. Farkran's progression/interactions with Gamma are pretty bad but his reads Day 1 were quite natural and organic in a way that I think he really struggles to fake as scum. The saving grace for Farkscum here would be that early on, with the game wide open, it's a bit easier for him to just work forwards/react to things organically inthread, and here we're very much limited to the early game. bugspray is a lot more of a crapshoot but I townlean them based off the bodyguard claim/them clearly having not read catboi at all. Hectic's progression around Gamma was quite good imo-at times defending him but at others very aggressive, and
correctly
aggressive in reaction to bad Gamma posts.
In contrast, I think the reasons for you being town are mostly based off tonal oneliners that are trivial to fake, and the interaction with Gamma was far from clearing even if you look decent from it. Instinctively, I also think the engagement with Flea was in bad faith, but I'd need more meta on you to really get to the bottom of that.
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Post #852 (isolation #227) » Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:42 pm
Postby Costello »
Just to be clear: The above is just what I'm currently thinking/based off what I've seen from this game: I'll revisit Flea's meta and compare it to this game for you when I can.
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Post #857 (isolation #228) » Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:10 pm
Postby Costello »
When I said "instinctively seems in bad faith" I meant more that I found fae's reaction very natural and town-indicative, but that you willfully chose not to see that. And yeah, if you're town that's just not the case, and hopefully by getting a better background on Flea I can see that.
I don't think your points were outright wrong/bad, but that's only half the story if that makes sense.
I definitely feel confident, and perhaps wrongly so, but I have read the entire game through 6x and will do so at least twice more, and easily another 5+ if it goes past today. Arguably that's worse if I'm wrong on you given how much time I've sank, but rest assured I will go over every inch of every post you want me to look at-and then some.
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Post #882 (isolation #229) » Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:41 am
Postby Costello »
Flea is 100% confirmable and we should never be voting fae today.
madeline has seein fae's rolecard and knows there is no ascetic/roleblocker, confirm shutting down neighborhood=0 PT access and suddenly the slot is completely mechanically clearable.
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Post #883 (isolation #230) » Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:44 am
Postby Costello »
Way to do this btw isn't to directly ask Chara about the PT cops or anything but to have both madeline/Flea just ask a simple "Do I currently have access to any PTs?" after neighborhood closure
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Post #890 (isolation #234) » Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:11 am
Postby Costello »
In post 886, Hectic wrote:I think it's unlikely anyone's gonna be ascetic on top of an additional confirmable role ability, but I see your point
We have yet to see an ability that coincides with the ambiguity of "No Result" for Farkran's PT investigation; the setup doesn't require there to be one but it remains unaccounted for.
In post 883, Costello wrote:Way to do this btw isn't to directly ask Chara about the PT cops or anything but to have both madeline/Flea just ask a simple "Do I currently have access to any PTs?" after neighborhood closure
uh, I don't think the mod would respond to us in thread for that. We would need to be investigated to confirm.
It wouldn't be inthread, the idea is you both privately ask to verify that Farkran's result will be accurate. Because there's only one scum, you will receive and publicly give the same answer. When Farkran investigates, you will be mechanically cleared.
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Post #896 (isolation #237) » Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:03 am
Postby Costello »
for the mods i'm not saying you should go to tiny url, no space, with a .com and a /4charaisis on the end because direct links trip the site's spam filter but i would consider it
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Post #900 (isolation #239) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:53 am
Postby Costello »
Arguably, it is, but you're going to have to explain a bit more than "this is the winning play" to get the team on the same page to carry it through with you.
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Post #902 (isolation #240) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:24 am
Postby Costello »
In post 901, bugspray wrote:basically hectic has focused mostly on mech play which due to the setup will not give us any information about the actual game
scum would love to have everyone claim so thathtye can plan out night actions and hectic has been one of the strongest proponents of it
Hmmmm, maybe, but I think the Flea nuance was a bit hard to spot; it took me a day or two.
I think the fact he didn't want to take me up on Ydrasse, who before this was the best chance at an "investigation clear" points the other way.
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Post #906 (isolation #242) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:36 am
Postby Costello »
I'll try to get to the reading I promised Ydrasse in a few hours, today might be the last day of undivided attention I can give this gameday. Hectic, I'm curious as to what you're thinking now that we have the fullclear on Flea on the table.
Before rereading, I wouldn't really be surprised if Ydrasse was town. If both Ydrasse/Farkran were, though, I would be
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Post #909 (isolation #244) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:54 am
Postby Costello »
i might submit ydrasse's 840 to a publisher tbh, not sure it's the same level of literary achievement but i'm pretty sure it's longer than hemingway's "old man and the sea"
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Post #912 (isolation #246) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:01 am
Postby Costello »
Being honest I've been skimming through several games from both Ydrasse/Flea and definitely see Flea as mafia now, but I am maybe like 20% through what I want
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Post #920 (isolation #249) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:07 am
Postby Costello »
(And even a Flea night investigation being foolproof still requires Chara to answer the question "Do I currently have access to a PT?", and in the negative, for you/Flea)
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Post #926 (isolation #251) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:16 am
Postby Costello »
To more directly answer your question regarding holes: Unless Farkran is both town and gets a guilty overnight, we should not expect a mechanical solution to the game.
There are many mechanical possibilities but only two are unambiguous: A hypothetical Day 3 Farkran guilty (He can't 1v1 w/ a miselim) or Flea mechanical clear.
There are interesting side questions like "Will bugspray die N4 or N5? What does Hectic's Body do?"
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Post #928 (isolation #252) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:20 am
Postby Costello »
In post 925, madeline wrote:if hectic or costello are mafia, town loses
if farkran or bugspray are mafia, flip a coin for who wins
hope ydrasse or flea are mafia, to avoid the other options
and this is a plan people are like, 'yeah this is good' about
Can you suggest an alternative? It's not that we think this plan is foolproof: It's absolutely not, and this is why I've put a heavier emphasis on qualitative play.
We have 3 guesses for the mafia in 7 players. With 0 mech info, this nets us a 77.2% chance of winning the game w/ random selections.
The plan here actually nets 4 guesses by maximizing how we utilize Farkran's claimed power.
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Post #936 (isolation #256) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:48 am
Postby Costello »
I mean, technically you have the flexibility to vote us out either today or tomorrow, but functionally they're equivalent, you're right.
I'm going to stop EV punching until I get off work and use real scratch paper because spitballing into Google Calculator without tracking what I'm doing does not work well.
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Post #938 (isolation #257) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:49 am
Postby Costello »
And also while I have gotten sidetracked in the hypothetical........I've been focusing on qualitative work for a reason, we should expect no mechanical solution with what is on the table.
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Post #940 (isolation #258) » Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:52 am
Postby Costello »
The issue with 937 is scum don't target Fark/bugspray N2. The only scum player who does this is you (Flea) to try and avoid mech autoloss, anyone else shoots me/Hectic/Flea.