Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Ouroboros]

That's not the question I asked.

[Punreader]

Dave Wraith ProjectMatt Ank RC ETL Kokichi should have all the scums I think

@Pun
What do you think is right? Wrong? And maybe?

I would off of Ankamius's description think Wraith is wrong.
I would think Dave, outside chance at Ank (otherwise a wrong), severely outside chance of ETL (most likely a wrong), and Kokichi qualify as 'Maybe'.

I wouldn't go so far as to say ProjectMatt and RC are 'right', but they are focal points of mine.

Ask me again after I read D1; it's too early to really be certain.

[Ouroboros]

In case I need to be completely clear

do you agree or disagree with my interpretation that you consider my having been first on a scum lynch to be more scum indicative than town indicative?

[Punreader]

That's not the question I asked.

Not precisely, no, but it's the most accurate answer you'll receive. You asked a question expecting it to be a yes or no question but it wasn't actually something I could answer with a 'yes' or a 'no'.

Scumread implies a level of read on you I don't have without having read the game. I have an idea where I wouldn't look and where I would look. You spearheading the D1 lynch in the way I am hearing it described is one of the areas I would look. That doesn't make you pun; it simply means I am looking at you as a pun candidate.

[Ouroboros]

I'm going to vote you if you don't give a clear answer to the question.

[Ouroboros]

do you agree or disagree with my interpretation that you consider my having been first on a scum lynch to be more scum indicative than town indicative?

This is a question that can be answered yes or no.

[Punreader]

do you agree or disagree with my interpretation that you consider my having been first on a scum lynch to be more scum indicative than town indicative?

This is a question that can be answered yes or no.

No, it cannot, because it is simply adding an additional layer to the already existing question.

Your question hasn't changed.

You've just added an additional layer to it.

You are still asking, "you specifically scumread me more for having lynched scum D1, am I wrong?". You're just asking it in a different way. "Disagree or agree with me saying you specifically scumread me more for having lynched scum D1, am I wrong?" doesn't shift the question. But you have your answer. It's not going to get any better because it is as good an answer as you can get:

Scumread implies a level of read on you I don't have without having read the game. I have an idea where I wouldn't look and where I would look. You spearheading the D1 lynch in the way I am hearing it described is one of the areas I would look. That doesn't make you pun; it simply means I am looking at you as a pun candidate.

This is your answer. There can be no disagreeing or agreeing to something which is partially both. It is partially disagreeing; it is partially agreeing. Because the original question was partially yes, partially no.

Not a hard concept to grasp.

[Ankamius]

sigh

I'm just going to go sleep

good night

[Ouroboros]

I know who you are and I find that answer strange at best: I would expect you for -reasons- to outright townread me with possible later consideration for a bus over that.
But I will allow you to catch up before I get any more in your face because all of your reads so far are basically meaningless, you are saying.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

@Mod: Can we get a deadline extension so punreader can catch up?

[Punreader]

I know who you are and I find that answer strange at best: I would expect you for -reasons- to outright townread me with possible later consideration for a bus over that.

Then you don't know who I am because that's not something I would do.

all of your reads so far are basically meaningless, you are saying.

No, that's what you were trying to get me to say. It is not what I said.

Your description of their play is describing things I would immediately be severely cautious about coming from the players in question.

Ventriloquist (10):

Ouroboros,

ManWithNoName

, MariaR (Investigative), Wraith, Alchemist21,

Kaede Akamatsu

, davesaz (negative utility), Tchill13, wilky (Miller Slow Cop), Ankamius

If I'm honest, the only names here which

don't immediately look town

are Ouroboros and MariaR. Outside chance, Ankamius. But I'll let this analysis sit in the fridge a while and cool off while I go read.

Kaede- IC
Jungle- Weird Joat
Wilky- Miller Slow Cop
Maria- Some Kind of Investigative
OTM- Weird RB
Tchill- Non weak hider
Us- BP Vig w/ unspecified modifier
Flipped: Ability Swapper
For setup spec reference, cause I'm gonna want pun to do the same thing when they get their ass in here.

Ankamius
Ouroboros (AnonymousGhost + RadiantCowbells)
Ramcius
Alchemist21
Dunnstral
davesaz- NEG UTIL
Kokichi Oma- Unclaimed
projectmatt- Unclaimed
Wraith- Unclaimed

Well quick analysis would be that there's probably 2-3 pun in the unclaimed with 0-1 pun in the claimed. My role can act as a self-protective, your role has a protective, OnTheMark's roleblock gives a third source of killstopping power. This seems reasonable from town, but I would become suspect of an additional killstopper claim.

Kaede as an IC, the ability to get a second alignment confirmation, the miller slow cop, and the investigative is a little on the heavy side in terms of investigating. It's possible there's a pun in there, but not guaranteed. I would definitely lynch in there if we had an additional investigative claim.

I'd need to see the whole set of roles in the game for more thorough analysis. It'd be Impossible before then. Do bear with me.

Extrapolating from my conclusions thusfar, it would be fair to state

I would not lynch most of the claimed roles

at this juncture. Outside chance of MariaR but I wouldn't be comfortable concluding that so hastily; I'm not married to the concept.

I would lynch in the unclaimed players

. Off of description of play,

I'm not too concerned about Wraith or Alchemist21

. (I'll concoct more tangible analysis later.)

I'm also not so concerned about Dunnstral

. (He's a read I don't need to put much effort into before getting dun.)
Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch)

I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt

.
I wouldn't be confident he'd flip pun, but I'd lynch Ramicus if it came to it which seems to be what you want to do anyway.

Still, these are without reading the game so we'll have to see what changes when I've actually read D1.

Inversely, off of description of play (not to mention the D1 lynch) I would be rather concerned about Ouroboros and projectmatt.

The implication here is that you specifically scumread me

more

for having lynched scum D1, am I wrong?

I would say you are more right than wrong. 'Scumread' implies a level of read on you I wouldn't confidently say I have. I literally haven't read the game; it would be hard to have a punread

of any real strength

.

I would say it's more that I have an idea of

where I wouldn't look

and where I would look, and

you're in the area I would look

. Looking there doesn't make you pun, in of itself. It just means

I'm looking at you as a pun candidate

. Your application is on file and being processed; for all I know, when I read the game, it could be thrown into the shredder. But for the moment, it is being reviewed.

Scumread implies a level of read on you I don't have without having read the game. I have an idea where I wouldn't look and where I would look. You spearheading the D1 lynch in the way I am hearing it described is one of the areas I would look. That doesn't make you pun; it simply means

I am looking at you as a pun candidate

.

What I have actually said has remained the same.

I have reads. I have ideas for who is town and who is pun. These are not meaningless. They

are

based off of very little evidence, largely conjecture. Given that, I wouldn't place strong faith in them and you could classify the reads as varying degrees of weak. That does not invalidate them altogether. I have a direction to focus on. I am not positive that direction is the right one yet because I haven't read the game. That doesn't mean my feedback is worthless. If it held no value, I wouldn't be giving it.

[Ouroboros]

No, that's what you were trying to get me to say. It is not what I said.

No, I was trying to dig for a response that would be AI.
And trust me, I know who you are. Though it's ~plausible~ that I misunderstood your understanding of my meta.
I was under the impression both that you thought that I had mostly stopped bussing and that you didn't feel like you had any real ability to read my slot.

What I have actually said has remained the same.

I have reads. I have ideas for who is town and who is pun. These are not meaningless. They are based off of very little evidence, largely conjecture. Given that, I wouldn't place strong faith in them and you could classify the reads as varying degrees of weak. That does not invalidate them altogether. I have a direction to focus on. I am not positive that direction is the right one yet because I haven't read the game. That doesn't mean my feedback is worthless. If it held no value, I wouldn't be giving it.

If you're going to call me one of the few slots that has scum equity for you I think your reads are pretty worthless. But again, I'll wait and see what the end result ends up being.

[Ouroboros]

And I mean I disagree with like... basically all of your reads. And kind of feel like you feel like you replaced into a floundering town if you're town, rather than one that's mostly on the right track but hasn't entirely gotten there yet.
I understand the motivation to be contrarian in such a situation but like read the actual game before you come to conclusions like 'town hasnt lynched its second scum yet so obviously all scum bussed and are no longer in contention for lynch!'

[Punreader]

This claim is worth insta lynching?

This question was a good one, because while my role is insanely advantageous to a pun player and near-worthless to a town one, the point raised about claims being clearly indicative of alignment is a good one. Pun can and will have town-sounding roles, just as town will have pun-sounding ones. He did not deserve such a frosty welcoming.

I'm also going to hardclaim miller here and the miller has a flavour name too so i'd like to put the question to dave on what's the flavour name of your miller role.

Until then
VOTE: Davesaz

While the mod of this game is bold enough to brave the pitchforks of a pun miller, it doesn't take a PhD to figure out this is a town entrance. I especially buy the townslip:

So we're just assuming that safe claims are given now?

Yay!

VOTE: Davesaz

Because I don't trust sculptures.

Even without Ankamius's description, I sense a spark of town here.

Bringing out the Roy I LIKE THIS GAME ALREADY
VOTE: Kaede
Srs vote
Pedit: Ew.

I'm not quite sure what I should be Making this out to be.

Oh, is that a thing with GiF games?
I am willing to reveal flavor as requested, but would like to hear opinions on whether it's actually helpful and on whether the other miller claim should be required to do the same (presumably yes on first question implies absolutely yes on 2nd but that's just my opinion).

Certainly not a rock-hard townread I can tell you that.

Trust other people? What is this blasphemy?

I'm beginning to understand why people would want to ram this lynch through.

I'm not getting the Wilky hate. Like at all. Why in the world would scum fakeclaim miller to 1v1 a useless powerrole. Everyone on that wagon gets -10 town cred.

What does seem possible to me is that Dave fakeclaims miller and then CC'd.

vote:Dave

While the read here is understandable enough, I am tempted to Nero my vision down to a tunnel and just keep calling the slot pun.

[Punreader]

And kind of feel like you feel like you replaced into a floundering town if you're town, rather than one that's mostly on the right track but hasn't entirely gotten there yet.

I understand the motivation to be contrarian in such a situation but like read the actual game before you come to conclusions like 'town hasnt lynched its second scum yet so obviously all scum bussed and are no longer in contention for lynch!'

This is not a fair representation of my stances.

[Ouroboros]

Maybe I'm reading myself into you but that's what it feels like to me.

But again I just want ot let you catch up first.

[Dunnstral]

This claim is worth insta lynching?

This question was a good one, because while my role is insanely advantageous to a pun player and near-worthless to a town one, the point raised about claims being clearly indicative of alignment is a good one. Pun can and will have town-sounding roles, just as town will have pun-sounding ones. He did not deserve such a frosty welcoming.

I'm also going to hardclaim miller here and the miller has a flavour name too so i'd like to put the question to dave on what's the flavour name of your miller role.

Until then
VOTE: Davesaz

While the mod of this game is bold enough to brave the pitchforks of a pun miller, it doesn't take a PhD to figure out this is a town entrance. I especially buy the townslip:

So we're just assuming that safe claims are given now?

Yay!

VOTE: Davesaz

Because I don't trust sculptures.

Even without Ankamius's description, I sense a spark of town here.

Bringing out the Roy I LIKE THIS GAME ALREADY
VOTE: Kaede
Srs vote
Pedit: Ew.

I'm not quite sure what I should be Making this out to be.

Oh, is that a thing with GiF games?
I am willing to reveal flavor as requested, but would like to hear opinions on whether it's actually helpful and on whether the other miller claim should be required to do the same (presumably yes on first question implies absolutely yes on 2nd but that's just my opinion).

Certainly not a rock-hard townread I can tell you that.

Trust other people? What is this blasphemy? :eek:

I'm beginning to understand why people would want to ram this lynch through.

I'm not getting the Wilky hate. Like at all. Why in the world would scum fakeclaim miller to 1v1 a useless powerrole. Everyone on that wagon gets -10 town cred.

What does seem possible to me is that Dave fakeclaims miller and then CC'd.

vote:Dave

While the read here is understandable enough, I am tempted to Nero my vision down to a tunnel and just keep calling the slot pun.

4 down, 128 to go

[Punreader]

Maybe I'm reading myself into you but that's what it feels like to me.

The reason I feel pun bussed can also be seen in another telltale sign:

VC 1.07

Tchill13 (1):

verylazy

wilky (1):

Ramcius

MariaR (1):

Nero Cain

Ventriloquist (10):

Ouroboros, ManWithNoName, MariaR, Wraith, Alchemist21, Kaede Akamatsu, davesaz, Tchill13, wilky, Ankamius

ManWithNoName (1):

Ventriloquist

Wraith (1):

Impossibear

Impossibear (1):

Dunnstral

davesaz (1):

hebichan

verylazy (1):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

There is literally no counterwagon to the pun lynch. None, whatsoever, even remotely. There isn't even so much as a single wagon with two votes on it. If pun did not bus, if there were no pun involved in this lynch, then why would this be the case? It is of course

possible

for the pun to simply have been scattered and lack coordination, especially if lacking daychat. (I have reached the part in the game where that question was asked, but not where it was answered.)

But that is literally the only possible alternative to pun bussing.

If you instead assume pun did bus, then which names are the most likely to have done so? I don't see what really looks like what can be considered a solid pun block on there. If there's not a solid pun block on the lynch, yet pun bussed, the implication from it would be that the pun bussing was someone whose position carried disproportionate strength.

This is why I stated what I did.

You spearheading the D1 lynch in the way I am hearing it described is one of the areas I would look. That doesn't make you pun; it simply means I am looking at you as a pun candidate.

The evidence I have points to this as a feasible conclusion.
It is not the only conclusion.
The pun could all be scattered in various names.
The pun could be in various positions on the wagon.
The pun could be in a bloc on the wagon.

Those are all alternative possibilities to the conclusion the pun bussing was someone whose bus held strength. They are also viable. If I said that from the end of day votecount the evidence hard pointed to the conclusion of pun bussing with it being a hard pusher, that would be a lie because the other options remain, currently neither proven or disproven.

I also maintain by setup speculation that this game should be power role heavy and that of the roles claimed thusfar, few are notably suspect. An opinion which does clash with Jingle's apparently.

However, I also hold no doubt the town is mostly on the right track. I believe there are some potential oversights that my insight has shed light on. I believe that there are a few incorrect assumptions going around and a few data points which people overlooked that I saw. That doesn't make me right, and it doesn't make them wrong. It does mean that I feel they should have a closer look at things, while I take a first look at those very same things.

[Ouroboros]

I invite you to go back and do an analysis of games where I'm going hara kiri mode on scum as early as I was this game and compare whether counterwagons existed there. Generally scum don't end up trying to brute force fight with me.

[Punreader]

4 down, 128 to go

5 of 40, actually. I'm going on five-page intervals until I finish D1. Any D2 content of importance, I will no doubt be pointed to.

[Ouroboros]

Not that I -don't think that scum voted the wagon at all- I just wouldn't bother to call it bussing because I don't think anyone on the wagon has gotten towncred for it.

[Punreader]

Verylazy I'm at least somewhat concerned about being SvS but I don't want to fall into the trap of just saying everyone who is wrong is scum here

Logically I know there is some context to this post which makes it make sense, but I am considering being greedy and calling it a punslip in order to incite the wrath of RC. I'm a glutton for punishment.

It wouldn't surprise me if Wilky has done research and is relying on the miller claim because he realises the host has done this before, especially since he chose to highlight that it wasn't far fetched for there to be 2 millers again. As Alchemist said though, this is relying on some pretty niche assumptions so I'm not buying it just yet.

I'm pretty sure that any puppeteer can tell you why this particular pulling of the strings projects willky as town.

[Ouroboros]

I and most of the rest of the lobby would prefer you didn't. I also don't think that phrasing at all clears wilky, particularly with the 'not buying it just yet' bit but.

[Punreader]

While many reads require little explanation (e.g. Ramicus),

I don't get how town Nero can get "oh 3 people claim neg utility so scum has to be fake claiming" without thinking if that's the case town has to have some great stuff or scum are underpowered etc etc.
Scum nero thinking that and using it as an agenda to push something makes a lot more sense though imo.

This is a genuine point I feel a particular need to emphasize. The riaR end of the post is what you're looking for; Nero's agenda matches what I'd expect from a pun player. The slot is now projectmatt, if I'm not mistaken.

The OMGUS is also uncharacteristic of a town Nero. He's usually the one

being

OMGUSed.

[Punreader]

Though that's not perfect and things start to fall apart balance wise in role madness games like this

I've questioned whether to bring this up or not but ultimately I suppose I'll take the risk. Dunn is in the unclaimed pool, but if everyone was paying attention, y'stral should have noticed he accidentally slipped being a PR here. That is thus an additional PR in the pool of players holding PRs, and consequentially, further evidence this game is role-heavy.

two town millers.

Not "two millers", two "town millers". Noted.

VC 1.01

Ventriloquist (2):

davesaz, hebichan

Ouroboros (1):

Alchemist21

Nero Cain (1):

Impossibear

Tchill13 (1):

verylazy

Kaede Akamatsu (1):

Dunnstral

MariaR (1):

Ramcius

davesaz (1):

wilky

wilky (5):

Ouroboros,

Kaede Akamatsu

,

ManWithNoName

, MariaR, Ankamius

WOW. There is

DEFINITELY

scum in this group. Make this the short-list for D1 lynch or N1 investigations.

Since I've no intention to read the vast majority of D2, I would like to ask ETL if these stances still hold.

Clarify man with no name and Ventriloquist townreads please

I also read the whole thing and I hold interest in modern reads on Ouroboros and the Nero slot and if town why.

Yeah I could get on board with a Vent wagon too

Is it not possible Tchill has a jester role of some sort? Not suggesting an insta win but I don't see how his claim could be helpful to town otherwise.

It wouldn't surprise me if Wilky has done research and is relying on the miller claim because he realises the host has done this before, especially since he chose to highlight that it wasn't far fetched for there to be 2 millers again. As Alchemist said though, this is relying on some pretty niche assumptions so I'm not buying it just yet.

Very suspicious post

Almost forgot, might as well elaborate on why I find this post very suspicious, because why not

He uses some rather

absurd

leaps in logic in two separate cases to paint a narrative picture about these two players, deliberately ignoring Occam's Razor in favor of stirring up WIFOM.

What is more likely? That TChill is running a Jester gambit? Or that TChill is fakeclaiming? TChill's was by far the least believable claim so far, and the most awkward (considering Kaede is mod-confirmed). By bringing up some a longshot possiblity, Vent is indirectly mounting a soft defense of TChill.

Simultaneously, he attempts to cast suspicion on Wilky with a similarly absurd leap. What's more likely? That Wilky is claiming Miller truthfully in a game run by a mod who apparently has a habit of these kinds of setup quirks? Or that Wilky is deliberately playing off mod meta to mount a roundabout fakeclaim gambit, with a claim that is by its nature instantly considered suspect by default?

I don't like that whatsoever. And after we get the VC I might consider switching my vote right now.

I'm quite serious when I say this is a stronger push than anything I've seen from RC. It's like comparing a slam-dunk case to a bunch of shade. He's just so much more solid.

I don't like Ventrilo's attempt push me, i dlike Wraith's "5 scum, no faceclaim", we still have Tchill/Wilky situation, Realmen asking to be burned with the fire, hebi's sheeping is unsettling, Nero is awkwardly silent

Hm, i guess i try

VOTE: Nero

others at least are talking

Okay so I know I said I didn't need to shove this up on you, but really, you should see this. Naming all of those people, especially Ventriloquist, and then going elsewhere for no reason.