Mini Normal 2016 | Otters vs. Penguins | Endgame

[teacher]

VOTE: Invisibility

How did you not notice Gosrir - he's higher on the player list?

[teacher]

But hes higher there too?

[teacher]

Good to know. Also, since the mod noted it:

Mod: I am also V/LA weekends. This week, that will include Friday.

[teacher]

BBT - youre a teacher?

Performer - I will be a teacher effective Aug 20. For now, and about 1.5 more months (but who's counting), Im a lawyer. Both could fall under your rubric, though. What do you perform?

[teacher]

Are you also an IC ?

ROFL. Ive completed 1 newb game, and two open games, from the start. Ive subbed into one other game. I def dont qualify to be an IC.

[teacher]

Im actually kind of inclined to agree. Last time I played with Town!BBT, they pushed a mislynch (me, grrrr) several times, but at least provided reasoning.

VOTE: BBT.

BBT - strongest scum/town read, why, and +rand on it?

[teacher]

Wow, vote, go to sleep, and wake up the leading wagon. Nice to know I still got it!

Seriously, the only explanation I see is from TChill, and it is criticizing me for expecting reasoning. TBH, I didnt really expect reasoning for BBT's push, but thought it was odd and worth investigating with questions. I was also joining the counterwagon to Lefty to get us out of RVS/Random Wagon stage and onto the point where we could discuss things. Like this:

@Gustavo: You've contributed almost nothing but a train joke, joine4d each wagon as it picks up steam, and pushed for the day to end super-quick. What do you think of the the TChill-BBT interactions? Or more generally the fact that the entire Lefty wagon remains together, now on a new person?

[teacher]

So, if there is anything I have learned on this site so far, it is that I don’t yet get the meta of short posts and brief analysis and, as a result, my reads suck. Like bad. My last game, ALL of my scum reads were town. So please take these reads for the exact two cents they are worth, and I welcome any thoughts on how to make them better.

1. Wave is my hardest townread. I like his reads (mostly) and when he has gotten them. I like that he is explaining them and trying to convince town without pushing. I don’t see scum motivations for any of the posts, including those acknowledging valid points of suspicion on him.

2. I genuinely don’t know what to make of BBT v. Byron. I disagree with Byron’s scumreading asshattery, as I think scum would want to be liked, but much of that is playstyle rather than alignment anyway (asshats will be asshats, etc). I townread most of Byron’s posts in this spat, especially what seems like a genuine youthful appeal for information. On the other side, I don’t understand why BBT kept pushing a Lefty wagon past when it seemed like reaction testing would make sense, but I also don’t think scum!BBT wants the attention he has been getting for it and for being an ass. TvT if I had to call it, but if one is scum it is BBT (who is properly categorized as a null in point 4, just included here for discussion with Byron).

3. My remaining and weaker townleans go to Lefty and Performer, in order. If Performer hadn’t made 211, which I like, he’d be down somewhere between 5 and 6 for the earlier buddying.

4. Several others are posting content, but still null for me: Garmr, TChill, BBT, Invis. These are listed in the order in which I think I have a feel for their thought processes, even if I don’t have a confident read of their alignment/motives yet.

5. My strongest scumread is on Gustavo. Seems to be hopping around to the inflection point of wagons but has been holding back reasoning. I don’t like the way he backhanded my question about Tchill-BBT, but then criticized Lefty for backhanding his own question. FWIW, I asked the question because I had no idea what to make of the Tchill-BBT interactions, but found it bizarrely strong buddying for early in the game.

6. And then there are the low-post lurkers. In my experience on this site, at least one scum is in this pool: GEO, Nosferatu, Tommy Egan

VOTE: Gustavo

[teacher]

[ post ] ### [ / post ] - no spaces. I believe just p works instead of post too, but not sure.

[teacher]

The issue with that is that some of us cant live on the site like you seem to. I sign up for games with longer deadlines for a reason; I can only commit to getting on and really thinking about the game like once or twice a day. Im on now and have a lot to catch up on. If someone wants to chat while I read up on what has happened in the last 250ish posts, Im around.

[teacher]

Thanks all of you, and I also get where youre coming from. TBH, its the part of this site's meta that I like the least, but it could be because I have a much different approach to the game. I have a smart phone and read throughout the day, but I dont get much meaning out of that. To get reads/meaning, I prefer to really ruminate on the posts and the dialog, which I can only do with about five tabs open and switching between ISO views and live thread views on a desktop. Maybe Im over-efforting it and that's why my reads suck, I dont know.

I do know that someone way earlier today said they didnt like Performer's 211 and that is something I would like to understand better, just to see the different techniques of reading it. I also recall that Gus asked me questions about withholding information that I will be responding too. But far far more than that has taken place, without being absorbed through the mini-screen.

[teacher]

Cory Curren’s School of Wolf Hunting.

I suppose I could google, but you want to elaborate?

[teacher]

Im still midway through my reading, so I dont know how the wagons developed. I find it interesting that Performer is on one, but Invis is not in favor of a vanity wagon.

Through where I am now, I think I have many of the same issues with Invis as I did yesterday with Gus.

But I have also played with town!Invis who played exactly like this before. I dont think I will ever be able to read him well in any alignment.

Short: I feel unsure about either. I think Im in the same boat as lefty - Id join Invis over performer but am not sold on either. I will post an actual PoE pool when Im done.

[teacher]

Im actually surprisingly in a fairly similar space, with only about two amended reads, from yesterday. All the LONG lefty-gus spat did is confirm that I don’t like Gustavo. He has acknowledged being calculatedly robotic this game, but it has struck me as a non-voting form of OMGUS, along the lines of “I know you are but what am I.” See, for example 346, or compare posts 159 and 206 with 300 or 360.

Now that could be playstyle and not necessarily/strongly AI. The scumread remains the same, however – that I feel like he withholds information AND votes low hanging fruit. To be fair, Gus has denied both charges: 224 on withholding; 261 and 264 for voting.

I just don’t buy it. Again, I don’t see how the author or 159 and 206 (linked above) can deny withholding just 20 posts later. And I don’t see how someone who has been on every leading wagon, claims to have reasons for his votes (261), but then only provides 1 (264) can deny being opportunistic.

Additional ramifications from this read: I like lefty more. I really don’t like the performer wagon. And my townread on wave has been weakened, because he didn’t notice the conflict between Gus’s 264 RVS claim and Wave’s earlier defense of Invisibility because “the wagon” on me “was clearly formed for serious reasons” – not RVS. (141).

Additional read from this spat: I don’t like Invisibility’s reaction to lefty coming out of this spat, and then complete 180 when pushed by BBT. 369 to 384. Since it was not his first walkback of the game (310), I could hammer this.

Request for reaction to this read: TChill’s 317 was very interesting to me in that I don’t have strong reads on Performer other than based on the unflipped wagon comp, but Im still inclined to push Gus. Can you explain the theory behind this or otherwise try to convince me; I just think I don’t understand where you are coming from, especially in light of the fact that Gus claims to have reasons and you think (462) any reason “IS A LIE”. (I also don’t understand 463 side-by-side with 462 -- a content push with a page limit???)

A brief aside to Gustavo: In 224, you asked what I meant by backhanding in 213. I meant giving a halfhearted response to a question. To me, it seemed like your response to my question was functionally the same as Lefty’s response to you, but you criticized Lefty for giving it – it seems like you don’t hold yourself to the same standards you are applying to others.

[teacher]

@teacher if gus said he had actual reasons for voting performer I missed that.

Thats how I understood 439/442 + 261/264. Did you take 442 (when you quoted it) differently?

[teacher]

A brief aside to Gustavo: In 224, you asked what I meant by backhanding in 213. I meant giving a halfhearted response to a question.

I didn’t give a half hearted response. I answered your question genuinely

We will agree to disagree. I asked what you thought of X and Y. You said you didnt find X or Y notable/worrying. That to me is a half-dodge; youre saying that you didnt think it was important, but still didnt provide whatever thoughts you may have had. You'll respond that you had no thoughts; I doubt that but fair enough. Regardless, this is fast becoming a mountain over something that is is just a small fraction of my hypocrite issues -- see, e.g., the posts linked before and also 521, I dont see how Gosrir is low hanging fruit. Want to explain that?

If somebody blatantly lies about you

This is also part of my issues with you. I feel like youre playing surface level robotic but get very heated with sustained pressure (performer=bigot, lefty=blatantly lies). TBH, I disagree that there was any bigotry or any blatant lie, I think he just overread your post on invis in a way you potentially meant it to be overread -- your response, like on the scumreads point in the left spat, focuses too much on the semantics of your posts rather than the thrust of it for me. One thing I do find interesting is that you havent yet turned that heat on me.

[teacher]

alignment indicative. Gustavo, I will respond fuller, when on a big screen but for now, I did answer your question in 224 the next time I got on -- I think you missed that it was bizarrely strong buddying for early game.

[teacher]

again, anyone want to play while I catchup?

[teacher]

Im assuming thats not for me?

[teacher]

Im not asking you to move (Ive said Id hammer invis) but who is your next best? Im trying to sort outside my favorite right now.

[teacher]

Thanks. FWIW, youve moved into a townread. I especially appreciaed the unstructured notes becuase it helped me see how you think, and I could evaluate it against the more structured posts. If you managed to draft that for that effect as scum - well done.

[teacher]

Im entering my V/LA long weekend. I will def try to get in at least one long read/analysis sessions, but cant promise much more than that and some light prodges.

*******

@Invis: Why did you feel the need to repeat a short townread of Gus twice at 542 and 605? Also, your GEO vote is picking up steam, but he has posted alot more since you voted him for fluff - how do you feel now, and why?

@Nos - Im not asking you who it is yet, but can you elaborate on why you arent pushing your strongest scumread? Also, way back when you said that Invis's first vote on GEO was a bad post, but now youre there on a fairly bald vote. Why?

@Tchill: re 612/615: Why does scum only have one good player? Why is Gus on both town and potential good scum lists (and not the others)?

Finally, what will be my last post @ Gustavo unless he specifically requests a response.

Now if you want me to answer your original question, I need you to answer my follow up. If you don't want my answer, why are you bringing it up again in an attempt to discredit me?
.......
You aren't the first to accuse me of playing surface level, so clearly I must be a surface level player and I'm ok with that.

Apparently we wont agree to disagree, as I had proposed in my last post to you. I dont think my read on you is moving anymore, so I wanted to drop our spat and try to sort others better.

Regardless, contrary to the quote, I did answer your follow up on what you missed -- strong buddying. I also did want you answer my original question, and I did scumread you for not doing it. You think you did it and you say you didnt see any buddying. Fair enough. We had a communication disconnect (whether you answered or not) that I scumread you for. Youre having these communication disconnects with several players (to respond, because you asked in the part of the post I ellided, you think lefty lied by implying you scummed Invis. I think Lefty's conclusion was a fair read to take from your actual statement of I dont townread Invis. But again, communication difference being blown WAY up). I wish you were willing to just say - we view those events differently. Invis said he viewed this degree of stubbornness as town. I take the other side of the WIFOM on it, and see it is as scum who doesnt want to appear afraid of attention, particularly when it hasnt actually been leading to votes. Indeed, the difficulty of getting a wagon going on you despite (as GEO noted) some broader interest having been expressed is.....interesting.

But, like I said, I really want to move on since I dont think Im getting more without a flip. Before doing so, I will add a personal and offtopic note. I did not mean to suggest at all that you were playing only the surface level. The ad hominem nature of the attack by lefty after this quote was just .... shitty. What I was trying to suggest with the surface level comment is that it is very clear you are modulating your personality for the game (surface level - how you want to appear - robotic; peel back the layers and get to the real personality - heat).

[teacher]

Bueller?

[teacher]

Mostly a prodge until late tonight/tomorrow.

One thing I will agree with is that it is time to start coalescing. Reading through the slots that everyone is secure on - town or scum - and I completely disagree with Tchill that scum must only have one good player. It is almost like there are factions in the town and scum has inserted themselves into each one. Which is also making associational analysis difficult.

@Lefty - at some point you answered my question to Invis. I would have preferred Invis answer.

@Performer? - someone asked for my other reads. I was using my 635 to try to sort in my null/lurker/compromise pool better, but Invis and Tchill did not answer the questions I put there. Out of the lurker pool, I slightly TR GEO for pushing me after my wagon fell apart. I disagree with the reasoning, but I dont view it as scummy. To be honest, youve moved down for me.

[teacher]

I have one hard town read

This is my first normal. I tried to figure out how many scum are normally on a D1 town wagon in a 13 game. Browsing recent games, it looks like 2 is more common than 1 (1999, 2005 vs. 2012), but that is a low sample size. BBT, why do you think one is more likely than two?

Byron, why did you unvote? Garmr's logic was so clearly right, I just want to know what you were thinking.

[teacher]

Wow, lots of posts since I started writing. The one town read was joking to BBT's 896.

[teacher]

If you think two is more likely, who and why?

Performer and you, TBH. That allows for non-sequential voting and explains why you made that wagon toxic, when I dont see much in Performer's play to like (or much play at all -- coming from a slot that said they suspected lurking - 39).

[teacher]

I made the Performer wagon a no-go because he made it clear to me he was town.

You never actually explained this, at least that I saw in your ISO. Where and how did he do this?

Am I scum based purely on a pre-flip association with Performer or is there more?

As a pure ISO matter, you are null. Youre playing differently/more active and aggressive than the last time I saw you, but I dont really have a sense of why you are doing what you are doing. I am teaming you with Performer because I scum them, expect two on the wagon, and could definitely see you there.

Also, why is Performer scum?

Again, why arent they? It seems we are both in agreement that there is at least one scum on the wagon. I like them least of the wagon-- total fluff posts early, I take others criticisms of 211, 492 seemed too defensive about the votes on him for a town, 497's progression on Byron also felt forced. To be sure, not clear scum, but just not much to like (nor much to lose if Im wrong).

[teacher]

Started writing back at page 40, but oh well....

[Performer] shows that he is town in that he is not willing to just throw a town read at me, despite me being widely town read, and is more concerned with how difficult he perceives me to be to read. It shows a townie thought process in that he isn't giving me the benefit of the doubt despite my standing in the game.

This is baffling to me. Scum wants to be able to push a mislynch later, which they can do by nulling a spot that they have already buddied. I just don’t buy this explanation regardless of your alignment.

And answering a question with a question is scummy as shit. Why does defensiveness = scum? Why can't town be defensive? What exactly feels forced about his progression on Byron and what is the scum motivation behind doing it?

I didnt answer a question with a question, as all your questions show. I doubted the sincerity of your question, and then proceeded to answer it anyways. And I cant believe I have to explain this to you, since I learned it from this site, but defensiveness is scummy because townies know mislynches will happen and are more concerned with solving the game. Performer's progression on Byron (towning him more over the course of D1) seems fake because Byron went from active and town (through the 200s) to lurking (200-500) (at least until the EoD voteswitch). I dont see how in the 500s Performer could say his play had gotten better over the course. As for scum motivation, buddying? blending in? Being seen to be solvey?

[Teacher]being one of three people who avoided the invis wagon and me leaning town on the other two

Ummm.... The part regarding me is wrong, or at least “bigoted” against those of us who basically take weekends off. I made clear -- in 500, one of the posts you criticize -- that I would hammer invis. I repeat that in 635 with questions. The issue is that I was then offline for the weekend when the wagon got past 4, when there was intent, when the intent was retracted, and when the lynch finally went through. Had I been around, I would have joined. I do find it interesting, though, that you seem to agree with me that there were two scum on the wagon. I have named my candidates. Who are yours?

Teacher, how do you have only 1 tr after 35 pgs?? And why do you say the invis wagon was toxic?

I have one strong townread (like +24 rand, which makes it near 100%). I have several townleans. And I nowhere said the invis wagon was toxic (again, I would have joined). I said BBT made your wagon toxic.

@teacher is the bottom part of your post 730 to me? And what about your gustavo talk and other sr?

Yes, that is why it says performer in the bottom part. As for Gus, I still do suspect his slot, but less based on some of the end of day events, rereading the posts without the heat of the argument, plus I want to give Aristo time to settle in and play a new style. My current scumreads/leans are you, Tommy Egan, and Gus/Aristo.

VOTE: Nos

My points from d1 still stand.

Did you realize this was 100 posts into D2 with some other heat at Nos and some answers? Or did you just want to put a post up? Any interest in helping sort your slot beyond spewing your catchup?

I'm getting scum tingles from garmr

Why? I have read your followup interactions with him and didn’t see or understand what you got the tingles from.

i'd like to know where ppl stand on byron and nos specifically.

Townleans, stronger and weaker. Nos I need to evaluate Garmr’s case better than I have had time to now, but I liked their play D1.

upon checking this game and the normal queue rules there's nothing I saw stopping the game from being multiball.

Wrong according to the Wiki – Minis can only have one faction. Also your very next sentence (“I'm not aware of if those would qualify under normal rules”) seems to say you didn’t check the rules. Whats up with that?

I don't know what wave & teacher's reads are , of each other.

Townlean below Byron above Nos from my side. He is voting me.

[teacher]

You said three avoided and you townread 2. So that implied to me that you assumed two on, one off. But maybe I misread you?

[teacher]

Geo: will do on the complete. Brief isn’t my forte. Likely late tonight as I’m travelling.

[teacher]

GEO, my complete readslist by request. I largely built this “overnight.” It has been modified a little by today’s play and events, but not sufficiently because I have not had much time to review (I have 8 houseguests at my in-law’s house), nor had all that strong of a reaction yet.

I should also state my assumptions. I have assumed 2-on, 1-off the wagon in non-sequential places. I would thus rather lynch on-wagon today. I have also assumed from how conflicting peoples TRs/SRs were all over the course of D1 (and today) that scum consists of probably two active misdirectors and one lurker, rather than my usual lurk preference. But my hardest scumreads are on the lurkers, because (a) I am less confident between the most active players, and (b) I mind mislynching them less if Im wrong. With that intro….

Town read

• Garmr
  : So clearly town he might as well rename himself Garmrville. I already said I liked 571 and feel like I see similar solve efforts now that I know the process. But what locked it was 842, with a cherry on top for 1012’s willingness to admit his push was weak. I will lose the game at mylo/lylo if this is scum.

Town leans ordered

• Byron
  : This one is actually interesting, because the play somewhat contradicts my read which is based mostly on feelz. I think Byron’s posts – the RVS counterwagon, the appeal for information, the explanation for the unvote – show town motives. TBH, the post I like from him is 140 – I don’t think scum!Byron is this unmodulated/loose and ad hominem. Also, I view the things people are scumming him for (the contradiction on BBT D2 and the unvote) in the same vein, and don’t see scum!Byron ever writing 913.
  
• Wave
  : I said at the start of the game that I mostly liked their reads and when they got them, and that they actually explained them without hard pushes. That is still true, other than the current vote ☹. In particular, I liked 759 as a detailed quasi-defense of invis. His points about meta also seem accurate to my review. The TChill points have been sound, and pushing a slot that is not getting much attention. Just a general case of WIM and towny willingness to metadive.
  
• Nos
  : Has moved out of my lurker pool from early game, and I like what I see. 484was pretty good scumhunting in his style (would it be too much to ask for more than one line? According to this site’s meta, yes.) 639 also felt genuine and not defensive when I had signaled intent to move and IIRC others were starting to question the slot, though I cant search the game for “Nos.” I also don’t like how easily the wagon has taken off today. Im pretty convinced theres one or more scum there seeing if theres a quick-lynch instinct from the long night.

Nulls ordered

• GEO
  : Has remained amongst us low-posters (with a low word count to boot). Out of that pool, I like him the most though. 273 embodies it; I already talked about how I liked the push on me after (I thought) my wagon jumped the shark; I also like the start of it saying he panicked to post for the same reasons someone else commented on. 769 also did a lot of work for me from the person who had claimed intent to hammer then retracted. He remains null because there just isn’t that much there to sort with and he hasn’t interacted with enough people.
  
• BBT
  : I talked about this early today – a hell of a lot of activity, not all of which I understand. Theres no chance I lynch this today because it is helping drive the game and sort other slots by baiting and pressuring. That said, I find the performer interactions – both ways – troubling, but TR BBT for the Byron interactions, even though I have a much different view than him.

******

My guests woke up so I have to make breakfasts. The rest of the list, in order, is Tchill, and then Scumleans ordered Lefty/NMaf (my favorite for scum off the wagon), Gus/Aristo, Tommy Egan, Performer.

[teacher]

6-1?! And I am working on the remainder of the readslist.

[teacher]

Continued from 1041, with the same caveats and assumptions.

Nulls continued

• TChill
  : A recent point that I didn’t really like is that he completely ignored Tommy’s 1040 question when posting 1052, almost like that could avoid having to explain. I also didn’t like his Garmr “scum tingles” answer because it contradicts what he said EoD1 in 845. But I put him here last “night” primarily because he is sorting other players and I think I can understand his posts, but still didnt like buddying and defensiveness I saw D1, as in 465 (BBT buddy, see also contradiction on Nos play) and 721 (or just his reads on Wave compared to Wave’s reads of him.

Scumleans

• Lefty/Not Maf
  : This was the furthest change from any of my early reads, and the scummiest spot I can find off-wagon. It is also being driven by my assumption that scum has multiple active misdirectors. With that, I found 580 and similar complete midday reversals without reasoning to be the exact sort of flexibility scum want long-term without being obvious about it since they are both strong reads.

Come back tonight for the final installment, as I explain Tommy Egan, Gus/Aristo, and Performer, as well as answer the questions that have come up since yesterday morning.

[teacher]

Maybe its just me, but this weekend felt far less active than last weekend. I was travelling both weekends (U.S. Open Golf tournament, then in-laws house and cooking for 48 hours), but it was a lot easier for me to scan on my phone. Not sure what to make of that difference, but am certainly thinking about it. With that out of the way, its time to complete my readslist from 1041 and 1055 (that’s kind of my point….).

Scumleans, continued…

• Lefty/Not Maf
  
  
• Tommy Egan
  : Hardlurker even into D2, with more than 50% of his limited ISO coming after multiple spots started suspecting him (e.g., 524 676). Has claimed RL issues, but hasn’t changed style. 684 and 685 felt disingenuous to me – I doubt he had time to quote four pages and lose them during the 15 mins between the posts; I think he wanted to provide play in a style people had previously TR’ed. I also didn’t like the Nos push while leaving himself open to join either wagon; based on how he has played it after, I could see this being an effort to build towncred without catching suspicion.
  
• Gus/Aristo
  : I discussed the early play ad nauseam day one. The later play seemed shifty too, with a “sigh” vote to break his stubborn deathtunnel and reversing his reads on several slots (such as BBT) for scant reasons (see 559 to 668). That said, I was going to move off the slot if I had gotten to a desktop during EoD1 because the sheer volume of posts seemed worth keeping alive. Aristo’s apparently reading up, but hasn’t played enough to change my read.
  
• Performer
  : This was my preferred lynch coming into D2, in part due to a scum read, in part to find out about the composition of their wagon D1. But he has been far more active since daybreak, with 33% of his iso coming while the board has mostly been quiet. TBH, I really want to analyze those posts before I try to push a case, so I will just say it was based on lurking, voteparking, and odd buddying without links.

[teacher]

VOTE: Aristo][/vote]. Part read above, part pressure now.

[teacher]

EBWOP.

VOTE: Aristo. Part read above, part pressure now.

[teacher]

Sorry about that, I had been following but didnt realize how long it had been since I posted. I agree with TChill's comment that the game has seriously slowed down, which makes me think scum is trying to make one of the lynch wagons feel inevitable, but I do want to reread Nos.

@GEO - My Performer reread including his beginning of Dw left me feeling better, but not much. Id now classify the slot as null. The slot's slippage from my early read was because of continued lurking, even my early read said performer would have been between an actual scum and a lurk read if it had not been for 211. After that, I felt Performer largely coasted until this morning.

[teacher]

Im amazed nobody has done VCA on the lynch yet. The one thing that we all know for sure is that Invis is town. We have also discussed whether there was one or two scum on the wagon. I think two, alot of you think one. Even if youre right and Im wrong, the one scum was likely in place early -- its a town wagon that stayed as a leader for days and acquired a certain air of inevitability. So lets go to the video tape.

VC lynch -5

Invisibility

(3):

Garmr, Performer,

ByronVilla

VC lynch -4

Invisibility

(4):

Garmr, Performer,

ByronVilla, BlueBloodedToffee

VC lynch -3

Invisibility

(3):

Garmr, Performer,

ByronVilla

VC lynch -1

Invisibility

(4):

Garmr, Performer,

ByronVilla,Tchill13

THE CLAIM HAPPENED HERE, at 733.

VC lynch -5hrs

Invisibility

(4):

Garmr, Performer,

Tchill13, Tommy Egan

VC lynch

Invisibility

(7):

Garmr, Performer,

Tchill13, Tommy Egan, Gustavo, Gosrir Elmer Odels, BlueBloodedToffee

What makes this persistency particularly interesting is that the only person to really push the wagon, at least until the claim, was TChill. Garmr pushed a bit from 500-550 (particularly to Wave and Gus); Performer didnt really push much at all. This difference, as well as their other general play/lurking, is why I scummed Performer and towned Garmr. But nobody was interested in Performer when I pushed them earlier today, and Garmr is a leading wagon. Will someone voting Garmr explain a case -- if there has been one, I missed it.

[teacher]

1. In 213 you named WM to be your "hardest townread." In your readlist you write a lot about why he's town, but you don't mention at all why he got relegated to just a townlean.
2. What did you like about 842 in particular? I personally felt that he did have a point, however, he presented it in an intellectually unsatisfying (? maybe manipulative?) way, by which I mean that on his lists there are many points that are practically duplicates or one entails the other.

1. Wave was downgraded because I see some inconsistencies in his play. I already gave an example in 500, so am surprised your asking the question. But it was also because his participation after my way early reads felt more fluffy and less solvey.

2. I actually really loved 842's presentation. Between this and 571, I think I know how his mind works, and it is consistent with his other posts. (This, btw, is what I was referring to w/r/t Tommy Egan's catchup. It felt like he was trying to emulate 571, which I had already TR'ed Garmr for in 634). But what I really liked about 842 is that it was pushing for a likely mislynch - something I dont think scum wants to do, even if the reasoning is right.

[teacher]

what style that was townread was I copying here?? Show me quotes cause you have lost me there.

To be clear, I was answering this question above. I feel like your 684 copied the style of Garmr's 571, which I TRed in 634. Why I decided to call this out, though, is to BEG you to fix the formatting of your posts. Half the time -- including this example -- your own content is in quotes, making it easy to skim or miss. If that happens, please please EBWOP.

[teacher]

My preferred lynch pool is still (Performer, Aristo, Tommy)

Out of the two leading wagons, unless someone can give me an actual Garmr case, Id prefer Nos. Though I think he's town, he's certainly coasting which Garmrs not.

[teacher]

Wow, one of my scrumreads might actually gain traction?
VOTE: Tommy

[teacher]

that would require scum to vote consecutively which doesn't usually happen either.

Does anyone disagree with this? I certainly didnt, and had been using the same thoughts in my VCA. I repeated the same point, on the same page, when doing wagon analysis, and nobody blinked at that either. Finally, its validated by all three of the recent normal-13 D1 town lynches. But then.....

if performer or garmr flip scum byron could very well be scum that got off because he didn't want 2, possibly 3, scum on the wagon.

IS this why Byron got off after the claim? That way all 3 scum weren't on the wagon d1? Now this is a stretch for sure. It's feasible though.

there's definitely a possibility of a garmr/performer team atm.

Seriously, WTF?!. In what world do two scum vote the same slot sequentially together, and then stay together for 500+ posts, much less all three scum vote together? Were you drunk when you typed this?

****

This makes no sense at all. I struggled to figure out a motivation for it. And then I reread your votes. These two came directly in order:

VOTE: nos

VOTE: nos

You only need to vote once for it to be effective. But the bizarre non-sense above and the double voting makes a hell of a lot of sense if you want to make it seem less like youre a team with performer (by scumreading them at a time when they are a wagon) but not following the logic of your words.

@Tchill - Seriously, man, what were you thinking?
@Board - am I way overreading this in thinking it makes a lot of sense for that team?

[teacher]

Im new to normals, but I checked the previous lynch wagons and had not seen it. I guess I will take your word for it, but that makes me want to revisit my associational analysis since I had based part of my reads of the assumption they would not.

[teacher]

I would never have imagined three scum voting sequentially and staying together, which is what your posts implied. I still can’t imagine it but have three slots telling me it’s possible. Before I say it’s not possible I want to research a broader swath of games. Let’s just say I am still dubious but wanted to pull back on how hard my statement came out before I do that research.

[teacher]

Garmr, I appreciated the humor but actually read two of your posts as if they were NM (and was stunned NM had made a song, not just a oneliner), so do you mind changing Avis?

[teacher]

Mod: did Ircher know who Byron Jailkept?

. I see some crumbs but want to make sure.

[teacher]

Yeah there's nothing in their ISOs that makes me think they're crumbing.

AYFKM??? I will grant you I didnt see any crumbs in real time, but after the flip it is so painfully obvious that Byron/Ircher jailed Garmr. The number of crumbs is simply astounding.

I actually want to do a longer post with NK/VC/JK analysis, so Im going to save the list of crumbs (and my conclusions from them) for after work/world cup. But I cant see this claim as actual blindness, so Im going to view it as willful blindness. Also.....

And as I said before, nos/garm &

geo/

tommy

- I believe are unlikely the same alignments. . . . .
VOTE: garm

How in the world is this a logical thought process after a tommy town flip?

[teacher]

Doesn't jailkeep work both ways? Prevents a kill and protects from a kill?

Exactly. Which is why I view Ircher's intro (talking about garmr=scum and PL garmr) as another crumb as well, becuase in the abstract especially on N1, it is statistically more likely that JK prevents a kill rather than protects a kill. But I will get more into this in my longer post.

[teacher]

Im taking work time to type it up, so should have it in 20-ish.

[teacher]

No, thats my wall. Performer is scum.

[teacher]

A long and spoiled, wall post that combines my JK/NK/VC analysis.
VOTE: Performer

First, lets start with the obvious – the JK analysis. Byron/Ircher JK’ed Garmr. Here are some of the crumbs making that plain. TBH, there are a few I didnt quote to save space.

Spoiler: JK crumbs

Invisibility

(4): Garmr, Performer, ByronVilla, BlueBloodedToffee

I feel like one of these just parked their vote and rode the wagon out to an easy D1 town lynch.

Now I TR Garmr

and I'm gonna take myself out, so my lynchpool coming into today is between Performer & BBT.

The TR Garmr after a no NK is consistent with some form of protective role, but not necessarily a crumb

however at a quick glance I'm noticing a wagon on Garmr and I am very confused, I swear he was like universally townread.

Now weve moved into more obvious PR crumbing, still unclear what protective role.

(The above [first scumread of Garmr] is based on my role . . . . .
Answer me this: what percentage of people townread Garmr, and what percentage scumread Garmr?

This is the first serious hint of what specific role this slot might have. The 180 to a scumread “based on my role” is a PR crumb and an indication that Ircher is JK rather than doctor.

We should PL Garmr.

Same.

I have my reasons [to scumread Garmr]

Another role-specific PR hint.

TChill, you’re next!

(Also: Garmr = 99% Town)

And again.

Second, lets talk about what this means – the NK analysis: Scum probably knew Byron/Ircher’s exact role. Given the lack of a kill N1, scum would not have missed these crumbs (because they would know that town!garmr was the target, or scum!garmr was assigned the kill), so would have been sensitive to any posts regarding garmr.

Spoiler: Let’s play out both options

The NK makes Garmr lock!town

• Scum!Garmr
  :Given no NK, scum!Garmr knew that (a) his target was protected or (b) he was stopped. These clues, though not apparent in realtime, would have made clear exactly what happened. Scum!Garmr would have known Ircher was a jailkeeper. But Scum!garmr would have also known this PR – which can work against town in general by JKing another PR – had a strong townread of garmr’s slot and a scumread of Tchill’s slot. I don’t think scum!garmr nightkills Ircher with this information.
  
  
• Town!Garmr
  : As before, scum would know Ircher’s role. But here, killing Ircher would (1) end a town!PR, and (2) allow scum to question Garmr exactly how performer has been doing, by pointing out that JK could have prevented the kill rather than protected.

Third, back to the VCA, armed with the knowledge that Garmr is town. I already made the case from D1 VCA that Performer and Garmr are not aligned in 1166. That argument is strengthened by Byron flipping town. But I also think the VCs and performer’s progression on Garmr (as well as their D3 start) locks it down.

Spoiler: Performer on Garmr

Day 1

Garmr: rvs voted him because he was the last one to the game - hence I suspected him lurking. Shows up, omgus votes me & said I was buddying someone??, later puts up a sharp interrogation post to chill, on pg 4. His questioning and other posts, make me think he's got a sensible head on his shoulders in figuring out the game.

Day 2

I moved garm to null because of his push on nos, which has been interesting to say the least.

An odd reason to null the slot, given consensus views on nos, but whatevs..

The combination of events has made me change my tr -> null -> sr for nos. It looks like nos is trying to vote the people with least resistance & when I analyzed my wagon & garm pushed a case against nos, nos reacted bizarre, which didn't look like it came from town.
. . .
VOTE: nosferatu

So Performer was brought around by the consensus.....Until

I don't see how nos and garm are same sided, and tommy and gosrir don't seem same sided either based on my ISO of tommy.

VOTE: garm

This one is the problem for someone who had just scumread Nos. I cant see how any of Nos’s posts between 1021 and 1083 would change that read. The change cannot be because of wagons – performer was the third vote on each. But this makes sense if Perfomer is scum who knew Garmr was protected and could become conf!town in a few days.

Tommy has been pushing on nos for so long, and I have slowly read through bbt's case on him

VOTE: tommy

I have nos as tr from the nos v garm long debate. Still feeling uncomfortable about garm being town from today though.

Honestly, this is terrible. Compare it to 1021, where performer scummed nos from the same debate.

Day 3

And as I said before, nos/garm & geo/tommy - I believe are unlikely the same alignments.
….VOTE: garm

This makes it even worse; they cast a mislynch vote but wont even follow through on their own logic for it, instead going for the same slot.

I didn't see any breadcrumbing whatsoever

This feels like a forced, fake townslip after garmr outed the crumbs. I think any towny would have recognized the crumbs after the fact. Performer is trying to get towncred (and not blamed for the NK) here.

Yeah there's nothing in their ISOs that makes me think they're crumbing.

Way worse. Not possible.

The fact that garm is using ircher 's crumbs that only he and teacher brought up, to say he's town due to crumbs ... Lol.

Misrep, but still trying to case garm based on the JK.

Garm if you're really scum in this game, wow I applaud you. Seriously.UNVOTE:

Sweating scum going to a slot that is simply not a good lynch.

[teacher]

fmpov, partners, but Im more confident on them than you due to VCA and also the rush to lynch you today which (though justifiable) is also concerning for someone who prefers slower play.

[teacher]

Sorry, I do have to get some work done today. Quick responses for now:

@Tchill: not just the NK. Also the fact that Garmr makes sense as a N1 kill target, and my strong townreads of his play.

@GEO: I dont like it. But Im alot more confident in performer. And in part I dont want the really speedy day that seemed to be happening.

PEdit: also that.

[teacher]

If scum get a mislynch here they win right? 8 players. A night kill and lynch equals 6 players. 3 scum 3 town.

GEO IS FUCKING SCUM. LMAO DUDE.

On mobile and commuting, but I think this is wrong. I believe there are 10 players alive now, so a lynch is 9. And even if a lynch made it 8, the nk would make it 7, with 4-3 lylo as the worst case result (assuming mislynch).

I’m not at all pushing a lynch. I want to digest performers claim and reanalyze the board. Just pointing out an error.

[teacher]

1. just finished the Eng-Colombia game on delay. Wow.

2. I have some setup thoughts that I think may lock at least one scum.

3. Provided that we confirm masonry. I don’t think there’s a reason for the partner not to do this, despite the tea leaves as is.

Does anyone disagree with 3?

[teacher]

Also, Happy Fourth. Going to be low activity tomorrow.

[teacher]

I think your both wrong. It’s a statistics problem concerning independent events geo. Meaning as a matter of pure math, jailkeepers are more likely to prevent a kill than protect a kill target. I just don’t think the pure math leads to the right answer here for the reason I’ve already explained.

[teacher]

@tchill - I’m caught up but going to be slow on responses today.

@geo- no worries. And thankfully history teacher.

@garmr - there’s one or two claims I’d believe.

@board - does anyone disagree that Performers claim should be confirmed?

[teacher]

1. just finished the Eng-Colombia game on delay. Wow.

2. I have some setup thoughts that I think may lock at least one scum.

3. Provided that we confirm masonry. I don’t think there’s a reason for the partner not to do this, despite the tea leaves as is.

Does anyone disagree with 3?

Trying this again since it may have been swallowed by the Fourth. I saw Wave weighed in against claiming, but I agree with what seems like the majority, in part due to the setup thoughts.

[teacher]

tchill - I appreciate it, and I am caught up and happy to discuss.

But, tbh, I really want to finalize the 2d mason issue before intensive discussions, because some of my thoughts I dont want to give away as yet.

[teacher]

Nah, I probably wouldnt hardpush anybody in the current gamestate regardless, because Performer is still 50/50 at best for me, and sorting their slot determines a lot of my other reads.

[teacher]

In his 1166, he was even putting garm and I together as a team - garm who has returned to a tr for me.

Ummmmmm.....no?

the one scum was likely in place early. . . .
....
I scummed Performer and towned Garmr.

[teacher]

It's also mylo

FOR THE LOVE!!!!! Its not Mylo. No. Stop.

[teacher]

for those who seem to have a weak grasp of the gamestate

there are 10 people alive, not 8

of those, there are likely 7 town and 3 scum

a mislynch and a nightkill would take that to 5 town and 3 scum

[teacher]

Exactly.

[teacher]

Yes, tomorrow (not today) is mylo if we mislynch today.

[teacher]

Given the clear majority requesting Performer claim and the lack of a response, I’m willing to threaten to accomplish the goal.

VOTE: tchill.

That’s L-1. I will rescind if the partner claims so that we can advance this game.

[teacher]

[Im out with my kids at a fair, but am saving this for daystart]

Welp…I’m sorry TChill and Board. Given the D3 discussion, not to mention the rest of the game, Im sure some think that was intentional. But seriously, what does scum!me have to gain from lol-hammering one of the few slots that was townreading me?

The simple fact is my count was off. I was following two stronger townreads onto a slot I suspected, and also trying to put pressure on Performer or his partner to back up their claim. The reason I was so insistent on having the masons both claim is the set-up thought I kept referring to yesterday.

Invis was ascetic. Ascetic affects the game only if there is an investigative. We must have an investigative. I don’t think a game is balanced with an investigative, a protective, and two masons. Thus, I don’t believe the mason claim. I wanted the mason partner to claim so that I could push lynching one, such that the other could be knowntown (that scum have to kill and leave the investigative alone) or knownscum.

But now, due to my mistake, its mylo. I don’t want to lynch performer or anybody. I want to give another day to have our investigative – we must have one – do their job.

I understand I will be a target for some because of my mistake yesterday. But please don’t let it end the game.

VOTE: No Lynch


Sent from my iPhone. Please excuse typos

.....and then there’s that flip. Still on phone so not going to try to edit.

[teacher]

Why tf hasn't this massclaim made it's round yet. teacher? Ari?

because I try to be unwired on weekends as much as possible especially since I’m leaving a job that required instant responses. I’m VT.

[teacher]

Intending to vote teacher

That's the safest option in my mind.

Seriously, why? Ive been a wagon D1 and D2, and each time asked for a reason only not to get one.

[teacher]

Votecount 1.13 - FINAL

Invisibility

(7): Garmr,

Performer

,

Tchill13

,

Tommy Egan

, Gustavo,

Gosrir Elmer Odels

, BlueBloodedToffee

Gosrir Elmer Odels

(2):

Invisibility

,

Nosferatu

Performer

(1):

wavemode

Gustavo

(1): teacher

ByronVilla

(1):

Lefty

Votecount 2.09 - FINAL

Tommy Egan

(7): BlueBloodedToffee,

wavemode

,

Nosferatu

, teacher,

Performer

,

Tchill13

,

Ircher

Nosferatu

(3):

Tommy Egan

,

Gosrir Elmer Odels

, Aristophanes

Performer

(2): Garmr,

Not_Mafia

Votecount 3.05 - FINAL

Tchill13

(6): Garmr,

Nosferatu

,

Not_Mafia

,

Gosrir Elmer Odels

,

wavemode

, teacher

Nosferatu

(2): BlueBloodedToffee,

Performer

Not Voting

(2):

Tchill13

, Aristophanes

Garmr, I appreciate the reasoning and get why Im PoE suspect, but Im missing a pretty key step -- How are the masons conf town? Have they shown buried hints in posts? Have they ever voted together to magnify the voting power of supposed known!town? Did Nos flip scum!PR, as one would expect to counterbalance masons+protective+cop?

[teacher]

Eh. Since Ive claimed, I really have nothing to add, other than to look at that vote count with Performer in blue instead of green -- a scum in a slot to be able to derail the wagon if it caught steam too fast?

[teacher]

Garmr - why would I have towncleared you?

Im close to giving up given how many town are necessarily part of this wagon, but still......Look at D3, when I clear you and resist a quick lynch push from GEO, and tell me why I do that as scum?

[teacher]

Consent to release. Excellently modded and very good times. Sorry for making you scratch the post after the TChill lolhammer. Pleasure playing with all of you and I welcome any feedback y’all might have.

[teacher]

Ageee Aristo, it took several, not just you. It was kind of you to sub in.

[teacher]

It felt like you were forcing yourself to blend and not do as much. Just a gut ping - your play seemed different than the personality I saw behind your posts.

[teacher]

@teacher: Well, I said it in the dead thread about your D2 readlist in particular, but it's also true in general: I'm very much impressed by your play in this game.

Kind of you. I thought this was wellplayed all around, and especially by BBT electing NOT to make a case on Aristo.

[teacher]

Wave voted before my "L-1" hammer.

Look forward to another one with any of you; this was a pretty civil, fun, and VERY close game.