Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Kaede Akamatsu]

if my ability would become reflexive it means it'd be targeting everyone targeting me which means anyone targeting me would get their actions copied onto everyone targeting me, which would be quite the convoluted mess.

[Ankamius]

That sounds like a lot of fun tbh

[YT2980]

if my ability would become reflexive it means it'd be targeting everyone targeting me which means anyone targeting me would get their actions copied onto everyone targeting me, which would be quite the convoluted mess.

lmao. the game moderator might get confused by what in the world would happen if everyone left in the game randomly decided to target you a given night...

not that this would happen because you’re conftown, but, like, that’d be insane

[Kokichi Oma]

VOTE: wilky I think

[davesaz]

Two inventor-class abilities in the same game?

[Ankamius]

So are we doing a mass claim or

[Kaede Akamatsu]

[Kaede Akamatsu]

VOTE: RMOJ
tbh, this is the biggest question mark.

[wilky]

Sorry guys been busy last few days. I still think Dunn is our best lynch here, willing to put Dave as town just now. Will compromise with Jungle if need be at end of day.

VOTE: Dunn

[Alchemist21]

Why do you think it’s Dunn?

[wilky]

Why do you think it’s Dunn?

Just went through dunnstrals iso. Dunn hard defended Maria most of the game and defended Maria not posting the track results/hood partner. Dunn also never got on the Maria lynch.
Dunn got on the projectmatt wagon but backed off when the lynch looked likely.
Dunn wasn't on the vent lynch.
Dunn seemed to want Wraith dead for a fair bit and Wraith flipped town.
How many scum was it we thought was likely earlier? I also see scum!Dunn implicating another 2 players as scum one moreso than the other but I want to see more interactions before disclosing who it was

The main thing about dunn is that matt was also hardcore tunneling him until MariaR softcleared him

I mean nero and Maria were both scum and did theater with each other. I could see Dunn being involved in that.

Pretty much this. I'm phone posting just now so getting everything into a post is awkward aswell but Dunn was right up for a Jungle lynch when that wagon was gaining traction after we never got a daycop on impossibear yet after that wagon died down Dunn stated that Jungle would mechanically be the wrong lynch and we shouldn't lynch there.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

VOTE: Dunn

[Kokichi Oma]

I think Dunn defending her is NAI as he does it a lot. But I dont townread Dunn at all.

[Punreader]

the main issue for me is that other than you, all the loud voices are dead

I beg your pardon, madam, but I would say quantity of posts is not the only factor in volume of voice; I thus argue I more than qualify as a loud voice, albeit one with a fairly good reason to justify why I am alive. (Namely, that I can't die.)

People dont want to cooperate with conf town by helping me figure out stuff.

I have presented a case from every angle on why davesaz is pun; I have presented cases on multiple players (wilky, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, etc.) for why they are town. I walked through my process and how I got there and provided my reasons for why I don't feel the davesaz defense holds. There isn't much more than that I can do to help you figure it out because I've given all the pertinent information.

I've given you how the pun have interacted this game, and shown you what they have been proven to do and what the situation they were in was like and how they were likely to have treated this, citing evidence from their posting.

I've given you how the players I feel are town have strong corroborating evidence to suggest as much.

I've given you the thoughts of the nightkilled players, and how these thoughts offer reasons beyond their role for them to have perished. These thoughts not only implicate davesaz (a common punread to all three nightkilled players), but also can be utilized to demonstrate why some players are more likely to be town (as they are less likely to nightkill those players given their stances).

I've given you the mechanics of the game, why they implicate davesaz in multiple ways, and why the main mechanical reason to "clear" davesaz is actually evidence which implicates him.

There isn't much more I can give you.
Do you want me to explain how it's quite possible the pun strongmanned Impossibear

just

to provide davesaz (who attempted a normal kill that was blocked) a way out of the otherwise-certain guilty on his slot?

Do you want me to explain how davesaz's stances on this day phase have been buddying to you, giving you precisely what you want to hear, because you as conftown are the player he most needs on his side?

I can only show you it from so many different ways. Because the gamesolve

is

davesaz being pun.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

@punreader:

I'm so fucking close to just posting my role PM and being done with the lot of you.

The told you so is going to be so sweet this game. If I bother staying on the site. It's not doing my health any good.

V/LA until June 26.

Anyway i feel like this sequence of posts come from frustrated town, scum would just give up rather than threaten, and i'd think it'd be bad sportsmanship to use these kind of tactics as a survivalist scum anyway.

[Punreader]

Why should i trust pun's VCA even if he's town.

Because if you knew my main, you would know to trust my VCA. I guarantee it.

Why should i trust your theory of dave being scum.

Because the theory corroborates the existing evidence for the gamestate, given the situation the pun were in and what they would need to do in order to have a path to victory.

Why should i trust dunn's scumread of alchemist.

You shouldn't.

Of course everyone wants to be right, but all I care about is solving this fricking game.

I don't care about being right. But the thing is I

have

solved the game, because all the evidence points to one suspect. I can give you different pieces of evidence. I can give you different angles to approach it from. But they all say the same thing, regardless of which path you take, of what logic you use. The reason they all say this is because it is the actual answer.

davesaz has played like pun the whole game. I can cite his sketchy behavior regarding the miller claim at the beginning of the game, his defense of the flipped pun, hesitance to join the projectmatt wagon (only hammering after severe pressure and when projectmatt was confirmed to be condemned), and his presenting of stances which are catered to you (among other sins).

davesaz has a sketchy claim. He claims to be only a miller, whereas every other power role in the game thusfar is not a standard simple role. To go through the list,

1. Ventriloquist's role of roleswapper is not a simple role.
   
2. Ouroboros's track/neighborhood mechanic was heavily modified.
   
3. projectmatt is the exception demonstrating the rule, as his rolecop is the only role unmodified.
   
4. Impossibear was both a bulletproof and a vigilante, with both aspects modified; the bulletproof had the 1x modifier, and the vig had a penalty for shooting town, a heavy modification from the standard.
   
5. MariaR's role had both a strongman and some sort of investigative power (that I don't fully understand to be honest); said investigative power was in of itself heavily modified.
   
6. MathBlade's role was not just a roleblocker; it had the modification of preceding ALL action resolution, a unique modifier which heavily modified the role.
   
7. Of the living claimed players, you have:
   • My hide, which contains a non-weak modification, which to GuyInFreezer's knowledge was a strong deviation from the normal, making it a heavily modified role.
     
   • Your role is not only an innocent child, but also an action duplicator. Action duplication is a heavily modified aspect to your role.
     
   • REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE has a proven quest effect. If you argue it's faked, that it's a public fruit vend, then that in of itself would be a heavily modified role. If you believe it's real, then this is an absolutely unique mechanic for giving out effects.
     
   • wilky is NOT ONLY a miller, BUT ALSO a slow cop, which in of itself is a heavily modified role, which is put on top of the cop.
     
   • Alchemist21 gives out some sort of inventions, but the inventions aren't standard abilities. (Okay so this role is probably fairly close to normal, but then again I'm not sure Alchemist21 has fullclaimed the exact specifics behind how the role works so it may be modified in some way.)
   Am I missing any, or does my point get across? davesaz's claim is an elephant in the room.

davesaz is heavily implicated by pun interactions. Nero Cain looked like he assumed that with the wilky counterclaim, davesaz was doomed; projectmatt in contrast went out of his way to defend davesaz on numerous different occasions...in spite of claiming to nullread him and later upgrading on zero merit davesaz to a weak townread. Furthermore, MariaR hard-defended davesaz all game.

davesaz's stances in this game can be seen in the votecounts as consistently being on pro-pun options.

The nightkilled players all held suspicion on davesaz. He is the ONLY player all three of them held punreads on, in fact. (Check for yourself!)

davesaz was roleblocked N1 and the pun kill is absent N1. Impossibear's death N3 gives the possibility pun shot Impossibear N1, but MariaR having a 1x strongman indicates that she could have strongman killed Impossibear specifically so that davesaz wouldn't be confscum.

OnTheMark indicated hesitance to block davesaz, making it doubtful (INCREDIBLY doubtful; I can likely explain this to you within a couple of weeks if need be) he would block him overnight. Yes, there were people arguing for him to do so, and telling him that he should, but he never responded to them; his last post indicated he was doubtful.

I know how OnTheMark handles night actions when he hasn't had the chance to respond. He goes with the last thing he posted. (I may be able to reference this trait using this game, but I need to check the timing to confirm.)

I know I'm missing a number of points, because there are simply so many reasons that davesaz is the last pun that it's impossible for me to remember them all in a single post.

[Punreader]

davesaz was roleblocked N1 and the pun kill is absent N1. Impossibear's death N3 gives the possibility pun shot Impossibear N1, but MariaR having a 1x strongman indicates that she could have strongman killed Impossibear specifically so that davesaz wouldn't be confscum.

I'd like to add, the theory of MariaR instead strongmanning Ouroboros is incredibly doubtful at best. If MariaR wanted to strongman RadiantCowbells, she'd have done so N1. For that matter, if she were planning on killing any one particular player in the game, she would have used the strongman N1.

Since we can reasonably infer the pun nightkill N1 was not ManWithNoName, we can reasonably infer the strongman was not utilized N1 (especially given MariaR claimed to use her action on Dunnstral). Given this, it is probable that they intended to save the strongman for as long as possible.

Using it on Impossibear was the best possible time; it is the only way where if davesaz was roleblocked from making the pun kill N1 they could keep him from being confscum,

and

they knew that MariaR was herself confscum as a consequence of projectmatt's flip. They knew that MariaR was going to die and that any unused ability would be lost. This made it the perfect chance to use the strongman on the bulletproof.

[Punreader]

There's no town cohesion here.

There

is

town cohesion, the cohesion is that davesaz is pun. The dead thought he was pun and the living have presented the evidence for why he is pun.

People may get distracted, and pursue shinies. (An example of this? I easily could have gotten distracted and pursued Alchemist21 instead of keeping focus on davesaz.) But at the end of the day, he is by far the best bet for lynching pun and most of the players in the game already know that. Even the players who defend him as town acknowledge he has some rather sketchy aspects to his posting.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

there have been VTs flipped tho.

[Punreader]

So, if I concluded based on what is presented here, provided I still feel davesaz is town (see below), then I feel RMOJ or wilky are the most likely to have shot OTM last night phase. davesaz, sure enough, has the most content against his case, but as people have thrown out my slot has been lynchbait, and I'm feeling precisely that same way about davesaz based off his play. His play is easy to lynch, which makes it all the more easier for scum to sit back and watch his lynch unfold, while not taking any active part in it. This would buy a scum member/member(s) another day, so it’s an easy plan for them to follow if they are unthreatened. If my theory here is true, and scum is sitting in the background, that would suggest there is only one scum member remaining, and it's either rmoj or wilky.

Your analysis here is critically flawed because you state davesaz is easy to lynch.
So is REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE.
So is wilky.

Being easy to lynch is not a valid metric, because it is not alignment indicative. Pun can be easy to lynch just as easily as town.

You can also note that davesaz is not gamesolving; he

is

sitting back and doing nothing. He's letting Kaede do the defending for him, and the closest he has to content is catering to Kaede's reads.

Ankamius is dead on the mark:

Agree, and the neighborize targets ended up being useful too.

It should be pretty much beyond doubt that if I had been scum with Maria we could have announced OTM's crumbed target and both been cleared. Maria must have thought she could frame me by being the first to reveal the no result. I'm happy that the ramifications of the matt no result swayed enough people to get Maria lynched.

I agree with wanting to hear from JUNGLE before doing much. There is probably a lot of heavy lifting to get remaining scum. Do we think the team is more likely to be 4 or 5? I think it's on the line and could go either way. Possible deep scum here.

We should just lynch dave I guess? I'm not sure. I'll read and decide. Likely one scum left anyway

Only if you're a complete moron.

You know the player this implicates to me?
VOTE: davesaz.

VOTE: punreader

the way this progression happened, mainly

I remember that davesaz' reaction to being suspected for the block thing was a loooooot different than it is here

THIS is pure survivalism

davesaz here isn't coming into this trying to convince people, he's trying to strongarm it

it's a subtle thing, but very real

Yeah i remember davesaz panicking when i wanted to lynch him instead of matt tho. He wanted to be able to mechanically get MariaR

Why is that indicative of town?

projectmatt and MariaR were intricately tied together.
They were both likely to go down, within a day phase or two.

What happens if davesaz gets lynched on D3? Do MariaR and projectmatt magically end up going free?
No, we lynch them, and the pun are wiped out.

davesaz was being set up to be the endgame pun player. He

needed

to survive.

[Punreader]

Man, it took you 4 votes to share that sort of thing?

Yes. Why do you think it took him that long to share, and why do you think he wasn't voting there earlier?

No, you don't get it. People think the's town because of the quests, and for no other reason. That's smart scum play.

Except no. People have said he's PUN for the quests, and for no other reason.

I asked for a REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE case and why he was pun by play.

You refused to give it to me.

On play, he is a townread.

I issued this challenge before, and I'm renewing it. Erase the quests from the game. Read Jungle

strictly on posting

. There is absolutely nothing town about that slot if you remove the quests.

I issued this challenge before, and I'm renewing it. Erase the quests' failures from the game. Read Jungle strictly on posting.

If we look at Jungle

outside the quest info

, what would the read be?

If we look at JUNGLE outside of the quest info, the read would be solidly nulltown; there is nothing indicating pun and yet minor signs indicating town.

You never responded to this.

@Kaede -- quote anything from Jungle that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously town. Anything that is making the slightest effort to solve the game.

Innocent until proven guilty; the burden of proof is on the accuser.

@dave: quote anything from JUNGLE that doesn't involve the quest that is obviously pun. Anything that is making the slightest effort to manipulate the town.

You've not provided this.

Where is the case for JUNGLE being pun on play?

You've stated it's there repeatedly. If so, then you should be able to link to it easily enough!

[Punreader]

if OTM had at least said "FINE ILL BLOCK DAVE" or something before the end of yesterday then you'd be an inno right now barring 2 scum remaining instead of 1. His argument with wanting to block punreader makes that dubious and i have no idea which of the 2 was blocked in the end.

This seems like a nice chance to crossreference posts.

So from here on out I am prod dodging until Dave flips.

Want my reads i Don’t give a fuck

Out with friends I blocked Davesaz.

VOTE: Jungle

A fairly good indicator of what he would do. He did not announce his block, but blocked his largest punread.

I am good at crumbing my targets and you know how I crumb and I have already done it once.

Unless someone alive explicitly claims VT.

I could block there and then have the plan still work.

Jungle wilky pun Alchemist sitting in a tree S-C-U-M-M-I-N-G

Put last things first and first things last and all things can be clear to see

All of them have claimed actions except maybe punreader will have to double check.

@dave already did three times
Four scumreads imho is already too many in this setup. So I don’t want to block outside this core group.

Kaede there is no good option here.

The plan relies on me blocking someone.

The plan relies on me blocking a townread.

Soooo your plan relies on me blocking someone I believe to be town.

What am I supposed to do exactly?

Either way I am antitown.

I can’t block no one that fucks with the plan.

I can’t block a townread as that is by definition the antitown thing you’d be mad at me for

I can’t block a scumread as they have claimed actions.

So I can’t block anyone and must block someone.

What you’re asking is logically impossible.

The plan does not work as written.

Sometimes sacrifices are needed, you need to block a townread, take your stab at the scummiest of your TRs if you must, but if the plan's interfered with we get left with less info.

I would rather announce who I am blocking than block someone I townread. Would that work for you?

So given the choices of you hating my actions for being antitown or you hating my actions for being antitown I pick blocking a scumread every time.

Kaede there is no good option here. The plan relies on me blocking someone. The plan relies on me blocking a townread. Soooo your plan relies on me blocking someone I believe to be town.

What am I supposed to do exactly? Either way I am antitown. I can’t block no one that fucks with the plan. I can’t block a townread as that is by definition the antitown thing you’d be mad at me for

I can’t block a scumread as they have claimed actions. So I can’t block anyone and must block someone. What you’re asking is logically impossible. The plan does not work as written.

I would rather tell you and scum who I am blocking than block a townread.

Plan is shit. Will never submit to not blocking a scumread. Nope. Not happening.

This I would state is a case of ambiguity; OnTheMark was not very clear in any of these later posts who he'd block. However...

Jungle wilky pun Alchemist sitting in a tree S-C-U-M-M-I-N-G

Put last things first and first things last and all things can be clear to see

By his word, we know that he 'crumbed here a block on Alchemist. And he referenced his beliefs later on. He said he was going to do this, and it is what he ended up doing.

I don’t see anything wrong with what you’re saying

Brain gets it. Gut is screaming something is wrong.

Kaede what do you make of Punreader’s plan?

Is it possible Jungle is just derp!Town a long with Dave and punreader is last scum scared of me blocking punreader?

Assuming MariaR is scum how bad would it be if I blocked punreader?

I feel like something is wrong and have no words to explain.

For the record, as our vig is dead, I intend to hide behind davesaz tonight.
I would strongly recommend OnTheMark block davesaz after a MariaR lynch.

Others should action as how they best see fit.

...I kinda have a bad feeling about this.

Kaede ? Like I get it but my gut says no.

That seems like waaaaay too op thought.

Meh I'd rather lynch Dave.
Get Wilky's check tomorrow. I won't block him. I'll null block if I have to. If he lies he's dead.
Lynch Alchemist.
If we still have a game lynch Wilky.

I don't see scum anywhere else.

(This tells us he didn't block wilky, and we know he didn't block JUNGLE.)

Here we can see a lot of ambiguity. However, his thoughts indicated at the end that he was going to block me, and this is what he most likely ended up doing.

There is something I'd want to scout out, however.

Can mafia both kill and action? I'll go see if I can hunt that information down, because if they can't then that'd confirm JUNGLE as town. (That said, I'm expecting they can.)

[Punreader]

MOD: Can the mafia both kill and action?

I can't find that information in the mod's iso, and it's not listed in the mafia's role PMs.

[Punreader]

Also what are people thoughts on conducting a mass claim?

Indifference. It won't hurt but it won't help.

The unclaimed players are Ramcius/YT2980, Ankamius, Dunnstral, and Kokichi Oma (the least-town of the batch); literally every other player has claimed, though Alchemist21 hasn't fullclaimed. Dunnstral is a soft-clear by virtue of having been MariaR's N1 target (as she wouldn't have targeted her own teammate with her investigative, by my knowledge, and yet she most likely did in fact target Dunnstral N1). YT and Ankamius are both solid townreads. Three of them + you will be nightkilled (yes, even Kokichi, because if davesaz were lynched and the game didn't end Kokichi is who I'd hide behind), leaving the fourth and fifth alive in mylo/lylo.

It would help confirm my setup speculation is more or less correct, but we already knew that to be the case.

[Punreader]

MariaR, Kellogg (

Institute 1-shot Bulletproof 1-shot Strongman Reconneusieur

), was lynched Day 4.

Abilities:

• Reconnaissance:
  Whoever your target visits/visits the target will be followed by you.

This is what I'm referring to RE: MariaR on Dunnstral.

Targeting a punbuddy is useless, because all it does is give Voyeur results on them; it'll tell her what actions were used on a punbuddy, but not yield usable information.

Targeting a town player, however, not only tells her what actions were used on that player (not very usable, but potentially useful), but

also

act as a soft-Rolecop, because she

Follows

the target. She'd see a protective action if used; a killing action if used; an investigative action if used. These are valuable things for her to learn about town players.

I thus truthfully believe she targeted Dunnstral N1, and that this makes him town.

This is not in of itself solid evidence, but it corroborates the existing evidence between my analysis on him combined with my own read on his play this game.

This game is really not that hard.
If mafia can't both action and kill, JUNGLE becomes conftown. (Sadly, I don't expect this to be the case, but we're in for a VERY pleasant surprise if so.)
Dunnstral is soft-conftown.
Kaede is hard-conftown.
I have hard-townreads on Ankamius and YT.
I know myself to be town.

That narrows the pool down to wilky/Kokichi Oma/Alchemist21/davesaz.

We have four lynches by my math. (1, 10 > 8. 2, 8 > 6. 3, 6 > 4.) We could literally lynch all of them and we would win, not even going into additional reasons for narrowing the pool down further. (Namely, reasonable townread on wilky and soft townread on Kokichi Oma.)