Large Normal 212: Korts' Geriatrics - Game Over @1831

[hitogoroshi]

/confirm

[hitogoroshi]

VOTE: Eddie

Note that I'll have patchy availability today through Friday and I'll be full V/LA Saturday and maybe Sunday - moving out of Madison and I'm quite behind on packing.

Who's the player everyone is most excited to play with in this game? mine's roflcopter I remember him beasting in some old games

[hitogoroshi]

I'm kinda torn here, I feel like the confirming outside of thread thing isn't a huge deal and I was just voting Eddie to make a wagon. And Axelrod 67 definitely feels a bit like he's squeezing blood from a stone and trying to taking this super far just to have A Reason For His Vote. But even though I don't care about that initial tell I really don't like Pine's reaction here. Seems weird that he first offered the "reason" of PMing to "ask a rules question" about rule 4 in advance of anyone actually posting anything rough, then immediately get in to spats and then later say "oh, I always confirm by PM".

Also I really don't like this one

This post doesn't come from scum. Scum is worried about the PGO, not annoyed at it being misplayed.

Because for someone still nominally undecided about Cooldog's PGO claim this sure seems to be tacitly assuming it's town
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Pine

[hitogoroshi]

Just caught up. I agree with Pine, Kison, whoever else in thinking the confirmation controversy is pointless. Honestly, a SR based off of that reminds me more of Epicmafia-type garbage than something I'd expect from MS outside of newbie queue. I also dont like how nearly everyone latched onto it as if it was some amazing revelation. That's suspect on D1, especially when the first wagon or two is usually on town. When nearly everyone agrees, then it means scum do as well. I don't particularly like Eddie's attitude (Pine's is ok), but not confirming in-thread is NAI for me. Games don't require everyone to confirm before they start, just the majority. I've played plenty of games where it started before I saw the PM to confirm, and it wasn't an issue? How is that AI?

That said, I think the hard push on Pine and/or Eddie over the confirmation thing is pretty bad, yet some players went with it hard, as if they were looking for something to sheep. Its possible one or both of them are scum, but why would anyone be so sure it's not easy lynchbait? Why would anyone not question it when half the playerbase sheeped it instantly? I honestly don't believe anyone genuinely believes in the confirm thing, so it looks like an excuse to form fake reads.

I don't know metas, but chamber going so hard off of it and claiming to have solved the game on page 4 pings me. He's accused multiple people so far though, which I don't think scum would be doing on D1. Thing is, those accusations seem to be based 100% on either Eddie or Pine (both?) being scum. I haven't seen any posted content that screams scum to me from either one, and hardpushing with little to no second-guessing pings me. He's not a hard SR mostly due to his playstyle. I don't really see scum pushing that hard on D1, but it does happen with a few players. Titus comes to mind.

Axelrod has been doing the same thing, but has been accusing far fewer players (none outside of Eddie? Pine?), and has not really contributed anything new to the argument, which chamber has done. Its almost entirely sheeping, which pings the hell out of me. They're not alone in doing it by any means, but they're also not giving any other thoughts. They've gone entirely for the easy lynchbait wagon with no looking elsewhere.

The player that takes the scummy cake for me though is petroloumjelly, post 64.

Looking like we should lynch Eddie Cane, Pine, and Axelrod.

I also don't believe CooLDoG's claim, but I'm not terribly interested in the topic right now.

Blatant sheeping with no original content/thoughts
String of future lynches
Not questioning anyone
Shade on potential problem PR

VOTE: petroleumjelly

Chamber: Do you SR anyone not based entirely around Pine/Eddie? Why or why not? What makes you so sure not confirming in-thread is a scum tell, and what do you dislike about Pine/Eddie's actual content? What do you see in what they've actually posted that pings you?

Axelrod: What pings you so much about Eddie's kmd vote joke thing? It looked like a normal rvs vote to me, so I'm not following your confusion over it, let alone the SR from it (his attitude sucks though). What else has Eddie done that pings you? Do you think everyone that is on his wagon are town? Do you agree that youre sheeping other's arguments against Eddie (I haven't seen you mention Pine as scum)?

Petroleumjelly: Do you have any content to add to the game besides bad sheeping? Why do you SR Eddie, Pine, and Axelrod? Do you think theyre all scum partners, or do you have independent reads? Do you have any thoughts on any other players in this game?

If Pine flips scum we are lynching Tywin next 100%

[hitogoroshi]

4.)

CooLDoG's claim is questionable because this is a Normal Game. Technically the role is not explicitly disallowed by the Normal Guidelines, but I do not think a Paranoid Gun Owner has been used/allowed in a Normal Game for several years.

For the record, this is actually the reason why CD is probably telling the truth (or he's bad scum). You can only have two roles in a large normal that aren't on the normal whitelist. So it's a dangerous fakeclaim because Korts might have used both of those non-Normal roles for Town, in which case it's near guaranteed to come down to a 50/50 at some point. Although actually, as I type this, if Korts gives SCUM a non-Normal role it gives them license to fakeclaim one non-Normal role, so this is less strong than I was thinking.

snip

If Pine flips scum we are lynching Tywin next 100%

Why? Please explain.

I don't really want to put in the effort until I have Pine scumflip in my grubby hands in case I'm wrong, but a.) the post has that over-workshopped, way too deliberate feel and b.) it has an overwhelming sensitivity about people's positions on Pine/Eddie where he's taking great strides to say the case itself doesn't make sense, but not that he thinks Pine and Eddie are particularly town or anything. To me it screams "My scumbuddy or buddies are being pushed by a case that looks like nonsense to me, so I'll point out how the case is nonsense without explicitly saying they're town". But I don't think townies go through all of that effort to ward off a random early game push from their null reads, you just do your own thing and try to make your wagon handsomer. Like that post mentions Eddie 11 times and Pine 10 times without actually including reads on Eddie and Pine, woof. (To be clear, I do think Eddie-scum does similarly implicate Tywin as a likely buddy, I just like Pine as scum more.)

Insanity 113 feels like it should have an Axelrod vote in it.

[hitogoroshi]

Moving v/la until monday

[hitogoroshi]

Done with moving. Will still be a little patchy as I get situated but I'm not V/LA at least.

Hito

– What does Insanity’s lack of Axel vote say to you about her alignment?

Let me rain check this until Insanity posts a couple more times.

I think I agree with Old Man 147 that Tywin 99 is kind of just plain scummy regardless of Eddie/Pine, without it being super associative like I was billing it at first.

I really like Axelrod 151. It's an easy trap to say wagons are "scum-driven" or "town-driven", but it's the correct attitude to make people actually cough up names and Axel's pressuring is good.

I'm more comfortable with Insanity town now. It felt like he was the person voting me who was most trying to sort me.

What prompted this? You have tons of posts between this one and the last time Insanity posted.

eddie i don't think you're scum but that doesn't mean i think all your reads are right. old man is all in on whiteknighting you, making your opinion of him pretty much the least consequential of anyone. don't take these things personally, difference of opinion in a mafia game should never be seen as "a slap in the face."

if i have to read one more seventeen sentence paragraph on the minutia of what constitutes a newbie under what circumstances i'm going to lose my marbles. from my understanding geriatric games are meant to free us from the shackles of overactive games that the average player couldn't keep up with. writing a novella every time you post causes just about the same problem, and old man is pontificating for the sake of burying this thread in his wordiness and trying to bait people into wall battling him. let's kick this game inaugural geriatric game off with an appropriate dose of dramatic irony by lynching the elderly.

tl;dr please help me feed old man the rope

This is a great post. Well, actually I'm not super sold on Old Man as scum because I'm also on the lynching Tywin train, but the main point stands that the wall wars are polluting this game and are undoubtedly pro-scum no matter the alignment of the participants, and this is a good attempt at cleanup that scum probably wouldn't have tried for.

Break for legibility.

[hitogoroshi]

I'm starting to come around to where you are on Old Man. There's a lot there that seems disingenuous and calculated, and I'm not a fan. I'll be keeping my vote on Chamber, but I could see moving there too.

I think roflcopter may be my spirit animal this game. We seem to be pretty in sync.

I don't like the vote hold - chamber is getting replaced out, and the OM wagon has more traction, so if you like it why not hop on a wagon in motion instead of keeping your vote camped on a dude who's leaving?

Also "we seem to be pretty in sync" with no qualifiers is another instance of Pine intimating Eddie is town without talking about Eddie's posting to do it.

MoI, your 186 is silly because Old Man

explicitly

said he likes Tywin scum independently of Eddie/Pine, not associatively like I was reading it.

So my read on MoI being scum is stronger than before by his reactions to my posts. On several points he seems to be engaging in behavior which I think of as “discredit to push” meaning he says many personal things about his opinion of me to factors in this game as though they applicable.

he does that all the time, as all alignments

I'll take a double vote, Fire, sure.

"It's for this chamber wagon I've been sitting on and barely talking about all game. come on pull up a chair"

3. Hito's vote is more of the same along with an RQS-type question which I don't how it could be scummy unless someone wants to argue that he's buddying Rofl, but I don't see it. I'd give Hito a weak town read if anything.

For the record, the main reason I brought up that question is that this seems like the kind of games where people might say "Listen, I know X looks scummy, but it's ~legendary player X~ I can't possibly wagon them today", so figured I'd head it off at the pass and give people a chance to gush up front instead of having them pull it out only when a wagon gets moving.

--

I actually almost always get scum pings on MoI regardless of alignment, so me not getting them probably means he's town? Axel is probably my strongest town read, and also I believe CD is probably telling the truth about PGO.

Old Man's style is annoying to read without some flips. It's kind of the same tone I affected with Copper, where it's so deliberate it's easy to fake as scum.

Still don't like Pine or Tywin. Could maybe go for an Eddie wagon. But all three of those feel like they're in the state where I want to heavily index on their next few posts, so for now I kinda want to just flashwagon Kison and see what happens when he has to do something other than coast

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Kison

[hitogoroshi]

My biggest takeaway from it is what I've already said: Axel, who didn't actually join the wagon but sorta kinda condoned it & threw his vote in with Pine instead. It really did read as "I don't want to be #7 on this thing."

But alignment-wise, how do you interpret not wanting to be #7 on that thing? To me, that seems to make sense for any permutation of alignments, but this post gives me the impression you have a specific takeaway you're drawing from it.

[hitogoroshi]

Well I disagree. Because removing the “suspecting Eddie / Pine as scum” element from it and I think Twyin’s post pretty much parallels OldMan’s – overwrought attacks on what was I think a pretty standard RVS wagon. So to my mind OldMan is pillorying Twyin for what he himself did in regards to Eddie’s wagon and calling it a disgusting disguised policy lynch. I don’t find that level of cogdis a Town tell myself. Do you feel I’m way off base?

Also real talk – copper223 is your alt? I did not know that. Learn something new every day.

Well, it's not so much "way off base" as it is just a different question, y'know? My point is just that it's not sensible to attack him for playing the associative backwards, because that wasn't his belief. If you think it's scummy to hold that belief, that's a different thing you can argue. While I'm sympathetic to his idea that the post just sounds fake regardless of associative (since the tone is what clued me in to looking at it in the first place), it's also true that it seems a little wonky w/r/t his own views on Eddie. Mostly I just brought this up because I'm also kind of coming around to the idea of lynching Tywin before Pine or Eddie so it was worth speaking up now. (But like I said, I kind of want to step lightly around that whole clump for a bit and see what happens. I have a gut feeling I'm looking in the right places and I'll figure out who in that pile is scum as they start posting again.)

And no, copper223 wasn't an alt of mine (I actually had a game with him). It was just Copper, a hydra I had with RedCoyote for a while. I actually explicitly made it because my tone makes playing scum just awful so playing Copper-scum was a lot easier than hito-scum. Funny enough a lot of people assumed you were a head in Copper.

[hitogoroshi]

when i'm bored i reread stuff, here i have too many townreads so i was looking back at my wagon. 9 pages is less than most games ive played have within a day, its not a lot to skim.

-

waiting for kmd and boon and looking at a computer is hurting my head

Man, how on earth are you bored already at the end of a big fuckoff wall post.

Also, Boon?

I'd lynch any in {Chamber, Old Man, Axel} right now. {Hito, Firebringer} also giving me bad vibes, but are not D1 lynches atm due to insufficient confidence.

don't take offer of double vote from someone if you don't have a good read on them and especially not if that read is scum leaning!

[hitogoroshi]

Insanity 232 is weirdly dissonant. If "just look how scummy Old Man is being" is a line of thought you generally agree with, how do you turn right around and go for rolfcopter for selling what you've been buying? It feels like your post was artificially looking for "who had the worst reasoning for the vote, lets call them scum" without actually meshing it with your other stated beliefs.

I agree that wall wars are bad.

But I completely disagree that scum wouldn't make the post. It's an easy comment to make that doesn't require dealing with the substantial content of anyone's posts.

It's not whether it's easy or hard; it's that scum are generally super happy to just let people snipe at each other. I think trying to manage thread culture is often a towntell.

Hito - Help me make a wagon. Put your vote on Tywin with me.

As mentioned I want to let him post first. Chance to either break out of or reconfirm suspicions

I'm sure everyone will be saying this but Firebringer 247 is really gross - he has a defined scum read but is instead sheeping his top town read on someone he thinks is town...to go from a one-man wagon to a whopping

two

-man wagon. Hey Fire, if you just convince Eddie to go to you instead of going to him, then you can be voting with him on MoI instead!

I have to say Cooldog’s Town read is rapidly deteriorating with his complete lack of any sort of thread presence.

Wait, what? Since you mentioned almost nothing about CoolDoG but had him high up on the town list, I assumed you did it on strength of claim like the rest of us. But this implies it was something behavioral and not the claim; so why did you have CoolDoG town in the first place?

Breaking cause I got to the Tywin post and I have a lot to say about it.

[hitogoroshi]

Hito: Why are you voting Kison, when all your SRs have been about connecting me and Pine as scum buddies? So you SR us both, me for 'protecting' Pine, but vote neither one?

I was pretty explicit about why:

Still don't like Pine or Tywin. Could maybe go for an Eddie wagon. But all three of those feel like they're in the state where I want to heavily index on their next few posts, so for now I kinda want to just flashwagon Kison and see what happens when he has to do something other than coast

I wanted to wait for more posting from you three, and voting felt kind of silly because I wouldn't really be pushing anyone until I had those posts. I figured I'd just try to get some pressure on Kison just to get him involved a bit more so we could read him. Was just kind of something to do with my vote because I wasn't really using it.

And sure enough, waiting helped my case a lot because you did the thing again:

Old Man sees it and says I'm scum for it. He claims it's independent of Eddie/Pine, because I haven't gone out of my way to say they're both rock solid TRs, saying that's fence sitting. He claims one or both are town, but that I'm scum for not saying so indefinitely. He also ironically claims my word to substance count is bad, aka I write a lot, but without substance. Very, very ironic, but thats his case. Do i have this right?

My response: He's false in claiming it's independent (although hito made sure to confirm that and defend him, rather than let him answer himself), because it is quite obviously tied to them and me defending against their bad case and a shitty wagons. I look to lynch scum and then place everyone else as null/not worth my time, not look for people to proclaim as 100% town. People who do that are scummy af, and I'd be voting Old Man right now if he didn't just claim. The only people that truly know are scum, yet Old Man really wants that town cred baby! Right now, Pine and Eddie aren't getting my vote for already stated reasons, and my scum pool includes people that pushed them. That's not fence sitting, but nice try Old Man. Get off my lawn.

First off, you don't have "already stated reasons" - that was the whole original point, that you were fixated on saying the

push

was scummy without relating it to their alignments. And again you're trying to convince us that pushing Eddie and Pine is a way folks got in your scum pool, but that Eddie and Pine are both players that fall under "Is there anyone else? I can't remember them." But of course, if you were coming by these opinions honestly, believing that scum is pushing the easy mislynch necessarily means you think the targets are town! Or at least you'd

remember

them. In a world where Eddie or Pine flip red, voting them for bad reasons isn't a scumtell!

It makes no sense that you're sitting here steaming over a wagon because you think the reasoning is bad, and that scum are taking advantage of the bad reasoning for an easy wagon, but you have no idea what alignment of player the scum are trying to use the bad reasoning to lynch. Seems painfully fake. So, happy to take the OMGUS here:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Tywin Lannister

Also I think voting me instead of Axel is pretty weird, since Axel-wagon is actively moving and shaking right now.

Old Man is almost certainly town, like Eddie said, because this is just a bonkers silly fakeclaim for scum to make. (But yes, obviously accept no excuses tomorrow). rofl is also town no matter how mad he gets at me for thinking it. While actually I got a bit of paranoia on my Axel-town read when rofl pointed out his vote was so static (I earnestly remembered it moving more), Old Man being town probably means he's town also since he went through the same thought process I did (where MoI misread an OM post and thought it'd be enough of a dumb distraction it was worth calling out).

I'd be pretty happy wagoning Insanity also. Still maintain that probably at least one of Eddie or Pine is scum if Tywin is scum, I just like playing the associative the other way now. Eddie 261 sniped me with a lot of shit I'm saying here and I don't know if that's him actually being town or in-thread coaching. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[hitogoroshi]

6.)

hitogoroshi, your reasoning in Post #262 seems a bit simplistic.

Players can attack a scummy case on Player X without knowing (or having to decide) if Player X is Town or Scum. And if they think the case itself is bad (or 'scum-motivated,' as was implied), it stands to reason that they are not likely to join the wagon.

But surely the thing that makes the case scummy is the fact that scum are trying to mislynch? I don't think it's that scummy to do bad pushes on scum (in fact, I've seen games blown open because a dumb D1 wagon hit scum, and all of the votes were so arbitrary that it was an unlikely bus).

I mean, the argument holds true in that you can say "This is kind of an unsound case, so I think one possibility is that this is Player Y trying to mislynch Player X. If this is true, Player X is town, but I'm not sure that's the most likely interpretation of events here." The issue is how obsessive Twyin was about attacking the Eddie/Pine push and how much his scum reads are sourced from people pursuing it, vs the extreme reluctance to actually talk about Eddie/Pine. I really don't think this is one possibility among many for Tywin, y'know? Like, if I dayvigged Pine right now and he flipped red, can you think of any of Tywin's arguments that would still be coherent? Because I personally think he would need to rethink just about everything - which is why his "I can't even remember them" stance seems so artificial to me.

I’m active lurking. There’s just a lot of wall posts so I’m trying to have my catchup be in a wall post, so I’m skimming a lot, but I’ll get to it when I get to my computer finally

give your top 2 scum and town reads from wherever you're at in the thread with no justification

[hitogoroshi]

Thanks to both of you for trying to undermine my

very subtle

attempt to encourage Cooldog to post as much as possible Day 1.

actually gonna bite back a bit hard on this, scum love the idea that a soft clear for non-behavioral reasons could be muddied up by playstyle, so even if cooldog was hyper lurking (and it looks like it was just the vla and he's fine now) I really don't want us opening that door. believe the claim or don't, but if you do then however he plays doesn't change his PM. townreads aren't cookies we give to the most useful players y'know?

Hito:

Tywin has not really pinged my scumdar at all this entire game, so I'm trying to figure out what you're going after here. Is this accurate?
- Post 99 seems fabricated / fake.
- Fencesitting on Pine/Eddie, low post:content ratio, maybe they're probably scum together.
- Going after the Eddie voters while having Eddie as a null read.

Mostly accurate, but for the last, it's really because of *how much* his views draw off going after the Eddie voters. i.e it wouldn't really be a scumtell in a smaller dose.

PJ

: Let's say I'm buying what you're selling about Pine<-->Eddie but I think that Tywin, Pine, Eddie is the best order to test the theory in (and stopping to re-evaluate if we ever mislynch, obviously). That get you on board the Tywin wagon?

[hitogoroshi]

And as respectively as possible - no. PGO isn't a "soft clear" role. His handling of the claim and acknowledgement to be wiling to be lynched before LYLO is Town play but he can NEVER be slotted as Town for his claim. I've stated I was going to give him 2 days to bust his butt assuring me he is Town with his play. So encouraging him to post is part of me wanting him shining as Town if he is Town ASAP. Frankly I really find the whole tone of this well off hito.

If your town read is for him saying he'd be lynched before lylo and not the PGO claim itself, then sure, that read can flex. To me that seems "bundled up" with the claim in that I can't imagine someone claiming PGO and then throwing a hissy fit about being lynched pre-lylo - it's pretty cheap to promise something so far in the future - but I guess your read was still behavioral.

I just bring it up because the idea of using the townread or lack thereof to "encourage" pro-town behavior gets really dangerous really fast. Reads should be a reflection of which kind of PM you think a player's got and that's all. so it's fine if you earnestly believe cooldog is likely scum if he doesn't post and likely town if he posts a lot. I just want to make sure we don't have a town where we conflate what we want people to do with what alignment they are because I was guilty of that a lot in my mafia youth and it loses winnable games. that's all.

[hitogoroshi]

However, seeing the same things over and over IS in fact a valid reason for not changing my mind, and for having a dearth of new input. What, you want me to come in and shitpost or reiterate what I've already said just to keep my activity to your standards? When there are players who actually HAVE been giving crap for content all game? (Looking at Chamber/Morality, KMD, Kison, CooldoG, Tywin here) Please, spare me the indignation.
...
I don't require a page and a half of reasoning for a read, especially on D1. Further, withholding a lengthy explanation also puts pressure on people, and I wanted to see what Axelrod would do. He's continuing to do more of the same.

Right, but withholding pressure DOES mean you're influencing the town less. The prevailing winds are shifting off of Axelrod and towards Tywin and KMD. How do you feel about those? Are they happy compromises for you or would you be really upset about one of them being lynched over Axel?

This post makes absolutely no sense to me. The first point quote is basically not to worry about any of the reads you actually have, but to simply vote for the wagon that has traction. A literal appeal to peer pressure here. The chamber wagon is also releativly new and lasted until page 5 or 6 really. I'll repeat that. Page 5. or. page 6. All day is a bit of a fucking stretch here, especially after the fallout of a really big rvs wagon.

But OM is the read he did have, that was my point. It just seems weird to say you'd be willing to switch, but for now you're staying, when the wagon you'd be okay switching to is moving and you're not pushing the one you're on. Doubly so because chamber was being replaced.

I don't understand how old man's posting style is going to change to be enjoyable after flips.....

It's not that it's more enjoyable, it's just that he's -- actually I remember that I wrote a explanation the last time I played with a super-clinical player (Accountant) so I'll just post that:

I think that Accountant has one of the very clinical playstyles where you can chiefly read him on two things - effort and relation to flips. A player like that becomes harder to gut read (because their style is easier to replicate as scum; I actually started the Copper hydra exactly to set a more scum-friendly baseline), but it ALSO leaves a lot less room to wiggle out of bad associations. In terms of effort Accountant obviously gets a super A, so I'm super comfortable giving Accountant a mild town read and revisiting after flips. There have also been a few towntells like the one I mentioned at the beginning.

More importantly, I ALSO DON'T UNDERSTAND THE LOVE FOR THE RVS WAGON. In essence I read this as hito being okay with either of the two bigger wagons, encouraging big wagons to get bigger and discouraging counter wagons. This reads to me as SCUM, trying to lynch whatever they can without caring much about the consequences. And then the off the fucking wall kison vote for little to no stated reason.

The Kison vote I covered already. And hell yeah I want big wagons to get bigger - it's really difficult to try to get reads when people don't consolidate because talk is cheap if it's not likely to lead to action. I like counterwagons as long as the people pushing them believe they will get big. What I hate is people who aren't influencing the lynch and seem fine with it, barring a very specific reason why they're not. (Eg, things like "I'm gonna dick around a bit while my main suspect is on V/LA" isn't a big deal if deadline is far away.)

I read hitos wall as reactionary and silly. At one point he mentions that eddie and pine were nothing players (far from the truth as they are much of the talk of the town), and an encouragement to go ahead and vote with the wagon that has currently built up steam.

More scum points to hito, enough that I would be willing to vote if pine doesn't deserve it more.

No, the "nothing" comment is from Tywin's wall, namely that he sorted the players like this:

Axelrod is still scum. Nothing changed.

Hito claims I'm scum because of Pine, yet he isn't voting Pine or me. Scum

Petroleumjelly decided to renounce their self-identity as a sheep stuck in a humans body. Still scum, but playing better.

Magma is town. I agree with his thought process.

Roflcopter is town. Said Axel and Hito are scum.

Kison is town. Hito voting him.

Morality I honestly can't remember ever seeing them post in this game. Null

Firebringer is impossible to read due shitposting. Null

CoolDog I haven't seen post since his original RVS claim. Null

Is there anyone else? I can't remember them.

So, tl;dr:

Lynch Pool: Axel, Hito, Petroleum

Not touching pool: Magma, Rofl, Kison

Don't care: everyone else

With his only comment about them in that post that he's "not lynching them for previously stated reasons". And which "wagon that has currently built up steam" are you referring to here? Because if you mean Tywin's, I'm vote #2 on it, so it's pretty silly to cast this as an opportunism thing when I'm in the weeds actively trying to make it a viable wagon.

[hitogoroshi]

The issue I have with you is that I don't SR Pine, and both his and Eddie's cases were shit the wagons that you, axel, petroleum, and a few others saw and jumped on wholeheartedly, making it serious. You've kept your same exact read all game long based on a shitty rvs wagon that others left in the dust after forming better reads. You continue to say Pine (But not Eddie???) is scum for the confirmation thing, so you've attached me as a partner due to me saying those wagons were shit. I maintain that stance still, and because the fact that both got wagons first, going as far as L1 or L2 almost immediately makes me assume it was scum driven 100%.

I don't think the confirmation thing is scummy - I just joined to make a big wagon early and then I swapped to Pine because I didn't like his reaction. See ISO 2.

Also, its telling that you currently vote me istead of Pine, when your read on me is entirely based on Pine flipping scum, rather than vice versa. You are pushing me instead of your main SR, just like you voted Kison instead of Pine or me prior to me calling you out for it.

I did vote Pine first. I only swapped off because I wanted to see more from all three of you-Pine-Eddie before trying to push any more, and my vote wasn't gonna do anything until I was confident enough in a push because the Pine wagon wasn't movin. Voting Kison was just to see if we could conjure up some random pressure on an active lurker and see what happens, but no one else liked that idea.

If you vote one of them, I think it should be based on their responses, not the confirmation thing, and in that situation, Eddie looks scummier of the two. He didn't even join the game until later, while Pine looked pretty upfront about the situation from the start. You TR Eddie though and went after Pine (along with Axel mostly) almost 100%, rather than also look at Eddie at all. Your reasoning for SRing Pine is no different than why you should supposedly SR Eddie, yet that is not what happened. Axel did the exact same thing, ignoring Eddie and going hard after Pine, when both had the same case. Looks like a pair of scum buddies to me. Its possible Eddie is your scum buddie too based on how you both ignored him in favor of Pine, but that's only if you flip scum first. Aka you and Axel (and to a lesson extent PJ) are the best scum to flip today.

I...don't TR Eddie? I think he's a less likely buddy than Pine but that's not exactly a high bar to get over. But most of my suspicion about Eddie is predicated on his interactions with other people, whereas you and Pine have things I don't like in isolation, which is why an Eddie wagon is more of a consolation prize to me.

Also for those playing along, look at these two statements from literally the same post:

The reason is obvious to me, but I'll try to explain. I've played mafia for a long time now both on MS and elsewhere, even before I create d this name (I forgot my older ones), and what I've seen in nearly every single game aside from a very small minority is that the first wagon or two is almost always on town. If the wagon is a bullshit case, it's almost 100% on town. I assume this in every single game, because it's a simple fact. Odds are that theyre scum driven when a player gets a fast wagon almost immediately after the game starts. Your one experience seeing it land on scum D1 without an actual reason beyond people not playing seriously is nothing more than a bad outlier.

Eddie is so town, you guys. Every single time there's an early flashwagon for silly reasons it's scum-driven and on town. It's a simple fact.

I see both wagons as being scum driven, although if one of them were scum, my guess is it would be Eddie. That's based on pairing Axel/Hito going after only Pine. Notice that Axel and Hito ignored Eddie entirely and went hard after Pine instead, although their reasoning should've also fit Eddie just as much. Both failed to confirm in the thread, so why give one a pass and not the other?

But also Eddie might be my scumbuddy.

That's the essential problem I have: that when it comes to attacking me and Axel, Eddie and Pine are so super obviously town, but that doesn't bleed over into his read of Eddie and Pine themselves, which he constantly just says is "the wagons are enough I won't read them today" and then defers talking about or to them any more. It feels like he has one mental box of "Things I can attack other players for" and another box of "The reads I am purporting to have" and he's not keeping them in sync. Like, to address PJ's earlier point, there totally is a world out there where a townie thinks "Well, I don't have a read on player X, but I hate player Y's push on them, so let's push player Y and if I'm right then I get the Player X town read as a freebie." The problem is the

intensity

of Part A here, and how it basically encompasses his sum view of the gamestate (Hito and Axel are scum, people hito and axel think are scum are town, people who don't like hito and axel are town),

except

as it pertains to Eddie and Pine themselves. Re-read Part A and ask yourself if you've ever written shit like that for someone you

wouldn't

call a townread.

[hitogoroshi]

vote: hito

Let me give you the same question I gave Pine - how would you feel about Tywin/KMD lynches today? Because empty-voting seems like more of a symbolic protest but presumably if I'm your vote target you're not that happy with the momentum on Tywin.

[hitogoroshi]

Axel, what motivated your "review" order and cadence? It kinda feels like you just wanted to write three cases.

i really still want to lynch axel seriously is no one else seeing this?

i'll answer your questions i didn't answer... later

rofl, it makes me feel like a side piece for you to cuss out Axel while you're voting me. Why am

I

scum?

Tammy 369 gives me good vibes, I like that she started with a catchup post right away without bullshitting around.

KMD, near as I can tell, your main thrust on PJ is because of his post 64 and his read on Eddie feeling artificial. How fair of a characterization is that?

--

Doing a bit of top-dome reads because I've seem em be useful in other games. Basically I'm gonna post some thoughts without looking back on the thread - which means I might be vague or have an inaccuracy, but it ALSO helps transparency because you can see how things are indexed in my head.

As far as the eternal question of "If Tywin flips scum, who's the more likely partner within Eddie/Pine" - I think I'm in a state right now where Pine seems a lot likelier than Eddie to be scum

generally

, but Eddie has grosser association with Tywin

specifically

. He constantly pings him in ways that actually feel more like coaching than pursuing reads, and the Morality push kind of felt like "gotta find somewhere to be", y'know? Lots of talk talkage none of walk walkage. But I mean, they could both be partners and I'd be pretty happy with either one on a Tywin red flip.

I like Kison's recent activity. I also like insanity more - her vote is a lot more mobile, which was part of my original trepidation. However, this is probably me being a liiiitle biased that they're with me on the Tywin wagon now. I mean, objectively you can kind of look back and say hey, insanity is going from MoI's shadow to my shadow, maybe she's the scum and you two are doofus townies with wrong reads she's using for cover? But I just don't think that's the case. Feels like insanity-scum using using hito-town to secure a mislynch on Tywin-town wouldn't hammer the questions so often before moving the vote. Actually at first I had her as ANOTHER possible Tywin buddy (yeah yeah sue me) because her questions also felt a bit "here is the mad lib to get you out of this situation, for gods sake just write the words in the boxes provided". But then she actually threw down when he didn't answer, hell yeah.

It's weird how little I can remember PJ's positions aside from his Eddie posting. Like I can't even tell you PJ's vote off the top of my head. His questions have seemed to be purposeful and not vacuous thread-filler and I've had a soft town read on him, but what does it mean that I can't really trace his shadow through the game? Well, if PJ is a townie laying bear traps, presumably one will snap at some point and I'll see it then. It should be easy to spot because that's kind of my style also (it used to be about my ONLY style, in fact).

Obviously firebringer isn't really playing this game right now. It's funny how everyone but him knew there was no chance he was going to keep up his idea for more than a few posts. Just on the odds and the background scumminess of some of the others he's more likely town than not so whatever, I don't really mind giving him space D1 even though from a eugenic perspective he'd be a great pl.

MoI I don't know, no real hard justification for the TR either than gut (and agreeing with some of his logic), but my gut haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaates MoI generally so tbh I'm kind of happy trusting it here for now

kmd, rofl, Axel not gonna cover since I have questions above

Uhh who's left? right well Tammy seems alright so far, I didn't like moralities posting but easy to believe that's just boon being boon, I didn't really have a read on chamber and I have experience with Tammy so I'm expecting a solid read as she catches up.

oh right and Old Man is probably telling the truth and we will lynch him if he is not, horray.

[hitogoroshi]

Sorry for making this harder to read by not snipping the internal quotes, but Cooldog had bonkers incorrect rephrasings so I need to keep the originals.

Right, but withholding pressure DOES mean you're influencing the town less. The prevailing winds are shifting off of Axelrod and towards Tywin and KMD. How do you feel about those? Are they happy compromises for you or would you be really upset about one of them being lynched over Axel?

wow. Wow. WOW. This is pretty bad. Essentially it says you have to vote the already pretty large bandwagon otherwise you are scum. Wow. It's d1 and a freaking rvs. I do not understand at all. More scum points to hito for wanting to lynch whatever people want to lynch at the given moment and not thinking about actual scum reads.

That was a question, with a question mark. It's objectively true that Pine is choosing to exert minimal town pressure. Whether this is scummy is dependent on, in part, how he feels about the current momentum. If he purported to have a huge problem with the swelling Tywin wagon, then it would be a big problem that he's chilling on a listless vanity wagon, because it would imply his resistance is insincere. It's less scummy if he doesn't really care about the Tywin lynch, because then it's more plausible he's a townie who isn't exerting pressure but is fine with that for now.

The Kison vote I covered already. And hell yeah I want big wagons to get bigger - it's really difficult to try to get reads when people don't consolidate because talk is cheap if it's not likely to lead to action. I like counterwagons as long as the people pushing them believe they will get big. What I hate is people who aren't influencing the lynch and seem fine with it, barring a very specific reason why they're not. (Eg, things like "I'm gonna dick around a bit while my main suspect is on V/LA" isn't a big deal if deadline is far away.)

"I litterally don't care who it is on, just get people closer to lynch. Never mind the fact that there might be significant reasons to not run people up on a band wagon really early like, idk, claims by prs and shit, but yeah, talk is cheap, so lets power lynch someone." that's at least what I got.

I like big wagons because the reads are more meaningful (I would much rather know how someone feels about a player being L-1 than how they feel about seven players having two votes each). This doesn't mean I always vote the biggest wagon (excepting RVS where I think it's generally the best play), but it

does

mean that I frequently encourage consolidating instead of everyone sitting on pet wagons. If someone has a vote down they don't think will lead to a lynch, they should find the best lynch they think they CAN get and move to it. So it's not "I don't care who the biggest wagon is on", it's "If you

don't like

who the biggest wagon is on, get on one you

do

like and make it bigger."

Also, if a town actually ever agrees to "not run people up on a band wagon really early", the entire game is a pointless waste of time until people agree lynches are possible again. It's not like you can get a pressure read off of anyone if their scumbuddies know that we've all agreed to not let anything come of it. Obviously it's not usually

correct

to lynch of the RVS wagon - I got off as soon as I found a read I actually liked. But it has to be

possible

, because why would scum act any different than town if they know that the person isn't getting lynched no matter what they do?

I did vote Pine first. I only swapped off because

I wanted to see more from all three of you-Pine-Eddie before trying to push any more,

and my vote wasn't gonna do anything until I was confident enough in a push because the Pine wagon wasn't movin. Voting Kison was just to see if

we could conjure up some random pressure

on an active lurker and see what happens, but no one else liked that idea.

If you do not find this post scummy then I can't help you. On one hand talk is cheap, thus keep your votes, on the other pull-out and see what happens before pressuring. ALso hoping for random pressure instead of actively creating it. Mores scum points for admitting you want to be a parrot on big wagons.

I felt like I could do it because this town is quite frankly super undirected. If big wagons were afoot you're correct I would not have pulled out and gone on a random fishing expedition while waiting for more from my top scumreads. But since everyone is dicking around on onesie-twosie vanity wagons, seems like one of those days where I'll have to do a lot of wrangling - and if that's the case and we have plenty of time, I was fine taking my foot of the gas a bit to make sure I had a clear sense which lynch I wanted. I had enough things I was watching for that I figured I'd get something out of the next batch of Eddie/Pine/Tywin posts, and hey, I was right.

Let me break the rest into a separate post.

[hitogoroshi]

Particularly in elaborating my Pine vote, in as much as (some) people seemed to have an issue that I'm still sitting with my initial vote on him.

It's actually pretty gross that your view is "I posted about it because people didn't like me sitting" and not "I posted about it in the hopes of getting other people to vote for Pine". Do you believe Pine will be lynched today? If yes, what do you suppose the path to that will look like? If no, why not?

I have good vibes from PJ 390 where he answered my comment of "I can't really remember his positions" by giving a read list. I didn't actually request reads, and I think scum there would have just thought "hey it's probably good if he can't really remember me".

Hito, can you link a couple scum and town games? What's the big difference? I looked in your ego search but couldn't find anything recent.

Yeah, I don't play too much.

Last town games were 17 Kilos of Cocaine (2017) and Accounting Mafia (2017). For scum you have to go back to FTL Mafia (2014) and Arkham Horror Smalltown II (2013).

Can you show me? Tywin is the last person I'd coach but me saying that doesn't really mean anything. I agree if Tywin is scum Pine is a likely bet for a partner.

Remember that was top-dome so I wasn't looking at the posts and was going off my memory of them. That being said, when I ISO you it was posts 261 and 323 I was remembering. Nominal "suspicion" on Tywin that it feels like you're not going to convert into a vote and instead is just telling him how he should post to get out of it.

[hitogoroshi]

/confirming that I read my PM apparently we have to do this in thread now

How much of the game had you read when you made this post?

Agree with Kison that the Tywin flake makes me feel even better about the vote. Obviously flaking can happen as any alignment but this smells like a scum flake because of the cadence where his posts got progressively narrower in scope. Remember, 320 was his last post, and it was a single minded attempt to attack his way out of the hole. It didn't work and it earned him a couple more votes. So I can easily see flaking as being a symptom of just not having anything to say.

Axel

, please respond to my question from earlier:

Do you believe Pine will be lynched today? If yes, what do you suppose the path to that will look like? If no, why not?

You don't think scum would rather be read as town than left in a pool that eventually could make them scum by process of elimination?

I think that, given that I mentioned I thought his questions were townie, scum-PJ would have just left it at the disclaimer of "yes, I kind of play detective a bit much". I never actually asked for him to commit to a bunch of reads and just left it as an open question, so the fact he proactively did it is nice.

[hitogoroshi]

Lycan

, why would you cast a vote mid-catchup when it was contingent on Pine's answer to a question that might have been answered already?

Do you know what it is that usually bugs your gut (about MoI) that isn't bugging your gut this time? And why that doesn't make you feel more conflicted?

I think it's that MoI's cases (as either alignment) tend to be kind of "policy" in the sense that sometimes, it feels more like MoI equates the "least acceptable player" with the most likely to have a red PM, as either alignment. Whereas this game, I found his opening to be a lot more proactive and concerned about motive.

Hito - You wanna know why your rofl town read for managing thread culture is weak sauce? It's personality dependent, but you don't seem to be taking that into account. I've done it, seen other scum do it, but you're taking it at face value it's just town cuz scum don't do it. I didn't think that you had those kind of superficial town do this/scum do this type outlook.

Sure. I've done it too. But tells that are tells because they

benefit

town are expensive for scum to throw out. So leading with one early makes me feel good.

Also why is Firebringer's 247 gross? Dig a little deeper. Why does it benefit scum him?

Being able to minimize your accountability to the point where you can have a scum read but throw it away to vote a town read just because another town read is voting them is something scum would love to be able to do. And I don't like that Firebringer didn't even think of trying to bring his town read on to

his

wagon instead when Eddie didn't have any momentum either. It's one thing to consolidate when you're way off in lala land and your TR tries to get you on a moving wagon, but when you're BOTH singletons, why give up so easy?

Having said that, I can believe Firebringer-town would play like this - it's definitely scum-

beneficial

, but I'm not sure how scum

indicative

it is, which is why I'm happier pursuing my positive scum read in Twyin/Lycan. I wouldn't be that sad switching over to Firebringer, though.

I feel like Eddie's anger here is scummy because it implies he thinks PJ is town (eg against his stated reads). I mean, is "anger" the reaction you get when your scum read pushes you? Surely it's the scums *job* to do bad pushes? When Tywin threw down on me, I didn't get angry at him, I was actually excited that his post was confirming the things I had an eye out for.

[hitogoroshi]

Tywin's 320 is thrbt and besides that I don't understand his reads.

What was thrbt supposed to be? Or is it new kid slang I just don't know.

That's interesting because I've also noticed that about Magna. The difference is I do see it here.

I agree the Firebringer case is more of the difficult-to-read side of MoI. But there are some very motive focused posts like ISO 10 and at least FMPOV that's enough to settle my nerves until we have some more concrete flips in.

Axel

, please respond to my question from earlier:

Well, I think it is still

possible

that Pine could be lynched today, though with the advent of baby Pinecone, I suspect that's less likely, as he has literally the best possible excuse to be, shall we say, not on the top of his game. But in terms of overall suspicions, he's still right there near the top.

If the thrust of this question, however, is "why aren't you, personally, doing more to achieve this lynch" then I would direct you back to "I generally don't have strong reads on people D1." Not strong enough to get all gung-ho rally the troops let's lynch this scum. I'm just generally more laid back about it, at least early on.

Give me a few flips, and some claims, and I'll give you the game....(he says, not at all modestly)

It's one thing to be uncertain enough that you're not taking a strong stance D1. That happens sometimes. But you're ALSO not use your vote as a tool to pressure, build consensus, etc. You're just hanging out on Pine waiting for - what? Someone else to take up the case you yourself are not "gung-ho" about, gather up a bloc, and take it home? Because otherwise, what is your vote

doing

? In preview-edit I can actually say the same thing about Eddie 540 - I don't like otherwise-engaged players using a long time until deadline as an excuse to cast these dead votes, because just punting until deadline scramble lowers the useful information we get throughout the day and lets people do deadline flops with these low-accountabiltiy asterisks of "well gee, I don't like any of these options, it's a real darn tootin shame that none of the options I like are on the table".

Or maybe to phrase it otherwise, I think it's the goal of town to ensure the lynch is on scum and that they're on it. Would you agree?

Because I just don't feel like a scum would actually be posting like that.

I mean, I think you can make the argument that "They wouldn't be doing this only as a tactical scum concern, it's just who they are" and like I said I sort of see it with Firebringer. But then the more precise formulation is "It's random chance whether they have a town or scum PM", ie weighted town and modified by your views on the town-at-large. "They would only be this scummy as town" is a dark and dangerous nonsense road.

I think PJ-slot is probably my strongest TR at this point and I think Eddie is totally off-base to interpret his questions as bullying. I don't find most of PJs case too convincing, but I do agree with his #7 that the Eddie <-> Pine interaction seems off.

So at this point, I'm somewhere like...really like PJ-slot/Ginn, Tammy, OM. And CD basically just on claim. insanity. Kison, MoI a tier below but still townish. My rofl-town read is obviously a little stale since he stopped playing like two weeks ago, so will have to re-index that whenever he plays again. Still don't really have a read on KMD? Is that weird? Firebringer in the "pro-scum play, not really sure if it means a red pm but happy to lynch and see" bucket. Pine is sort of the compliment to rofl where he's a stale scum-read I'll need to re-index. And then Eddie as #2 scum but a fair bit behind Lycan/Tywin-slot as #1 scum. Withholding Axel read for the moment.

[hitogoroshi]

I don't like otherwise-engaged players using a long time until deadline as an excuse to cast these dead votes, because just punting until deadline scramble lowers the useful information we get throughout the day and lets people do deadline flops with these low-accountabiltiy asterisks of "well gee, I don't like any of these options, it's a real darn tootin shame that none of the options I like are on the table".

My vote isn't a dead vote. It is the second or third biggest wagon IIRC - 3 people. I also posted on it very recently, and we are waiting for that slots replacement to catch up. I don't need to compromise vote my friend who probably only subbed in because of me when I mildly scumread the slot, they have some of the best reads I know, and is not anywhere near as scummy as the slot I'm voting when there's longer than a normal MS day left.

That's fair. I got jumpy because I read "there's plenty of time until deadline" as "I will just sit here until deadline without support, and then hop somewhere without accountability.". But it's fair that you're waiting for catchup because you think it might give you renewed power to push, and keeping the pressure on during catchup might elicit that. (That's what I'm doing, and I just don't think of it in your case because I think Tywin-slot is scum and PJ-slot is town.) Just not the frame of mind I interpreted it in at first, especially w/r/t what I was saying to Axel.

I think PJ-slot is probably my strongest TR

So actually explain this?

I've mostly covered it already, but: I thought PJ's questions were largely productive ones I could see the sense of. I really liked 390 where he both a.) acknowledged a playstyle reason why his reads wouldn't be sticking in my head and b.) offered a bunch of reads unprompted - I think scum in that situation who are self-aware enough to say a.) are more than happy to leave it at that. His case on you seems borne of legitimate frustration and eagerness to act when scum-PJ could easily just say "well I'll just accept Eddie and I can't really read each other right now and join in on [some popular lynch target that is town]". I also think his points on the you<->Pine interaction are very relevant and speak to legitimately deep investigation.

Meh, the points about Old Man using "ridiculous reasoning", "rambling", and thinking Eddie was a policy lynch all feel like suspecting poor play to me. In past games, have you noticed a difference between town Magna and scum Magna? Or just that he uses borderline policy logic as town?

No, I don't really have a good past sense of town Magna vs scum Magna. I find him pretty hard to gut sort usually. So normally my take is "Well, this is a very deliberate style, and if he's scum we'll rely on the fact that he can't wiggle out of bad past posting." (I think the last time I lynched scum MoI was some hydra game with Mina where we ended up hitting him with some godforsaken 10k word count wall with a fucking table of contents, relying on days of ammunition.). But since my gut dislike him so frequently, I think having good gut vibes on some of his posts is worth mentioning.

[hitogoroshi]

Shouldn't you also be lecturing me about my vote/lack of vote usage?

Not moving it while catching up is fine, unless it's do-or-die time. The thing I'm trying to attack now is static votes that look like they're gonna sit until deadline scramble. If you have a strong definition of when your vote should come back in to play (ie when you're caught up) it's not nearly as big an issue. I just want to make sure the coalitions that will end up forming form in time for the pressure to get reactions and for folks to clearly declare for where they want to be, instead of the coalition building being panicky and last minute such that we get weeks of no-one-above-L4 and like one day of interesting pressure.

Which would mean they had day chat and this is a normal game on MS which means they probably don't? so yeah that was a far-fetched concern in the first place, never mind me.

Korts explicitly mentioned he closed scum chat, too, so I'm pretty sure he inadvertently confirmed no encryptor. Part of why I'm sensitive to what looks like in-thread coaching.

Vote Count

(4) Lycanfire - hitogoroshi, Kison, insanity018, Old Man
(3) hitogoroshi - roflcopter, CooLDoG, Firebringer
(2) Pine - Axelrod, Lycanfire
(2) Ginngie- Eddie Cane, Kmd4390
(1) Eddie Cane - Tammy
(1) Firebringer - Pine
(1) Old Man - Ginngie
(1) Kmd4390 - MagnaofIllusion

not voting:

8 to lynch

Deadline is 6 PM EST on Monday the 28th of May.

[hitogoroshi]

Hell ... just typing that makes me think my vote might well be in the wrong place.

VOTE: KMD

this is a very town post because Firebringer is probably more lynchable but the evolution on KMD feels very natural + it was starting to set up a kind of gross chain-if-mislynch and you disarmed it yourself. In honor of this good post I will ISO KMD tomorrow.

[hitogoroshi]

You are correct. Magna is currently tunnelling me, who is not only obvious town by play but literally have a role claim backing me up. He continues to do this up till his most recent post of the game. Consequently all his posts so far have been empty and useless noise. I am sure you are aware how frustrating this must be. He is failing to even contribute to town by exploring other avenues at all.

Since he is not listening to a word I say I have no choice to request your help, for the betterment of the town and for his own sake, to do something more productive.

This is a really self-centered and arrogant way to approach reads."Obvious town by play" is just not a thing you say about yourself - how well you're a window to your alignment isn't something you judge yourself. But assuming you do fire off the IC tomorrow and all of the MoI posts on you are indeed "wasted", how does that make *all his posts* empty and useless noise? You don't have any real stated thoughts on KMD and Firebringer - so why the criticism of MoI for "not exploring avenues" when I have no idea what your interaction with those cases is? Player content doesn't live or die based on their interactions with

you

, y'know?

It's not boring, I'm just way behind in a very dense and somewhat hostile game. Summoning the hours and willpower to close read this thicket are just not presenting themselves.

Especially not with an infant sleeping on my chest right now.

There's no shame in repping out. If it sucks for you to balance this with your new commitments, it'll also suck for all of us trying to read your slot while trying to figure out what's due to your alignment and what's due to personal circumstances.

Rofl, were you caught up with the thread when you posted 588? It seems to be the same main thrust as 541, where we're both waiting for the same answer from Axel. Maybe I'm just a little pouty because I think the answer would have been more illuminating coming from the context of "Do you think you're being effective?" instead of giving the game away and making a major push about his vote immobility so he knows he's really on trial when he gives his answer.

I liked 541. I thought he made good points about Eddie Cane and Axelrod possibly voteparking.

Do you feel differently about rofl 588? He's talking about the same Axel voteparking.

What is the gross chain of mislynch in 555?

So, for a second it looked like MoI was going to maintain "Firebringer and KMD are both likely scum, but unlikely buddies". This sort of set me off, because it's setting up a chain-on-mislynch where he lynches Firebringer, then says "Oh, KMD -knew- Firebringer was town and defended him! Aha!". But before I could post anything about it, MoI proactively swapped to KMD.

Speaking of KMD, I know that I owe a more concrete read on him. It's comin!

[hitogoroshi]

short post I am sleepy

re: KMD, I don't see MoI's same suspcions of "muzzling the bear" w/r/t the Firebringer town read. He actually seems to have a pretty organic flow on Firebringer town, from not being able to read to liking it when he changed style. And actually on reflection I think that the interactions MoI calls "muzzling the bear" would actually be kind of weird coming from scum-KMD onto MoI town, because that draws a lot of light on to you and I'm not convinced there's much reward. The one sour note reading KMD for me is this post:

Magna, I'm not saying you're pushing policy lynches. It's more that the things you tend to legitimately find scummy are things others would consider policy. You see poor play and think "that must be scum". Your example in that very post about firebringer is exactly what I'm talking about. Does it benefit him as town to lie about being able to read you accurately? No. Does it benefit him as scum to lie about something so easily provable that he's sure to get the reaction from you that he got? Of course not. What's more likely is that he thought he was better at reading you than he is and he was mistaken. Unfortunately that tells us nothing about firebringer's alignment. But you see that he told us something and you can prove it wrong so he must be lying and must be scum.

If only because this is kind of a mirror of my position, BUT KMD actually has Firebringer as a town read and not a eugenics null. But when I read this post it feels like he has my read on Firebringer, not his.

I love rofl's active philanderiing for axel votes but I must rain check offer until at least next real posts from Axel and Lycan. having the second person in the tywin slot also slink away makes me feel pretty good where I'm at still!

once again it kinda seem likes Eddie wants to be seen voting but does not actually care about his vote doin anything. with his snap on me for the comment on the PJ wagon I was thinking "oh, okay, so Eddies got some stuff brewing" but no just a weakass empty vote on rofl?

Rofl I get you solidly scum read Axel and are giving real effort to move votes there. But I don't see that happening at this juncture.

So feel free to continue your push but anyone else you feel is worth a vote that you'd be willing to back as we get closer to deadline.

Okay after reading what I believe to be a really damn good point by roflcopter

(just read their latest post regarding axel's duality situation of pushing one thing but voting the other.

It just fits of pushing mislynches while not being on the wagon directly so you don't get blamed for it type of way.)

I really don't get why you'd say this as well?

There's like 12 days left of deadline?

You're trying to shoot down a wagon with a concern for time when there is no concern for time and I'm reading it as a defense of axel without actually defending him.

are you really posting a post like this with your vote on the claimed IC buckaroo

I am starting to think cooldog is reading my posts through an old timey spyglass or something so he only sees random parts in the middle of the posts. and also maybe vote counts cause uhh

At any rate, unless you can offer substantive proof of why anyone should hop on your bullshit wagon other than, "hurr, it's teh bigger one ya'll" then get out of here. This is the stuff of litterall just going opposite of what you want in your disorganized town comments. It so happens that you are trying to deflect the wagon to a wagon that we all know was really started off on some shaky pretenses. Page the early pages, page 13 is not.

I think you are missing that my wagon

has

been pushed because I offered proof and the people loved it! do you think my wagonmates were just hammering the keyboard with their fucking foreheads and typed tywin/lycan by a stroke of providence or fucking what. Lycanwagon is at L-3 so it's objectively true we got some townies on this wagon. I have clearly succeeded in my stated aims to be happy with and voting on the biggest wagon, so whatever I am, it's ain't a hypocrite. Could I still be scum tricking people with my nefarious ways? Sure. But then

who

am I fooling, and

how

am I fooling them? That's where you should be starting from. but it's clearly nonsense to say the reasoning for my Tywin push

doesn't exist

because if that was so then where did I get all these fuckin votes from??

[hitogoroshi]

Axel, what's your

read

on rofl? You've never mentioned it one way or the other.

hito should now consistently think that rofl is scum for his defense.

[hitogoroshi]

Lycan

, what exactly is your catchup process? It looks like you're still far back because all of the post numbers you cite are pretty low. I can understand checking the current thread for questions and then going back, but why on earth would you spend so much time explicating your read on Axel based on your limited context? I mean, wouldn't that be pretty wasted effort if in post 300 or whatever Axel dropped some giant scum tell? It's the same thing with your Pine/chamber theory - you're spending a lot of time pushing it to us in the thread

currently

, whereas I would think that it's a more productive use of time to do "part 2" of the catchup instead of looping back to defend "part 1".

Prodge.
not playing this game right now.

I support the votes on hito.

reads havent changed

gentle reminder that Firebringer suspects me for thinking he'd be a fine policy lynch Though I guess it's kind of admirable that he responded to the accusation of "you can't just sheep one player explicitly against all of your stated reads" by just not reading anyone's posts, making it unimpeachable that he's not blind sheeping anymore. got me there buddy

My read is that he's tunneling hard while not being at all interested in actually engaging me. That's sort of surface scummy, but it's something Town can also do, particularly if they're otherwise disengaged from the game. Or just like to go by their "gut." Which it also feels like he has been and could be doing. So, he's probably like "bottom half" in terms of people I like, but not "bottom three." What's frustrating is him just saying "lynch Axel" "Lynch Axel" for the same (non) reasons, and then blithely ignoring when I respond to him. That's going to put me on tilt as much as anything.

Axel

: You seem to mention that vote immobility is something only rofl would find scummy, but it's the same thing I was after in 541. I'll re-post:

It's one thing to be uncertain enough that you're not taking a strong stance D1. That happens sometimes. But you're ALSO not use your vote as a tool to pressure, build consensus, etc. You're just hanging out on Pine waiting for - what? Someone else to take up the case you yourself are not "gung-ho" about, gather up a bloc, and take it home? Because otherwise, what is your vote doing? In preview-edit I can actually say the same thing about Eddie 540 - I don't like otherwise-engaged players using a long time until deadline as an excuse to cast these dead votes, because just punting until deadline scramble lowers the useful information we get throughout the day and lets people do deadline flops with these low-accountabiltiy asterisks of "well gee, I don't like any of these options, it's a real darn tootin shame that none of the options I like are on the table".

Or maybe to phrase it otherwise, I think it's the goal of town to ensure the lynch is on scum and that they're on it. Would you agree?

[hitogoroshi]

Also, Axel 649 doesn't seem like a post directed at someone who he has on "bottom half".

So, as far as what rolf posted, like, I feel like I responded to him once, he completely ignored it and proceeded to say exactly the same things again. So that's annoying. I also get the sense he's the type who you can't exactly reason with, as he's going to just feel the way he feels. But I guess we shall see.

...

What about this are other people agreeing with?

top bit seems to be assuming he's town, bottom bit just seems weird that his response is "why does anyone else agree with this?" without imputing any value judgement about rofl himself

[hitogoroshi]

re: Lycan: At first his big conspiracy theory post gave me town pings. The problem is that it doesn't jive at all with his drunk-tell switch on Ginngie (which, near as I can tell, he's just wordlessly dropping to mark Ginngie as a towntell instead?) Like, basically my issue with his posting was that fake reads are stable but real reads can change. So front-loading a lot of effort into the beginning of the game to generate reads and then wanting to keep talking about them is something I find scummy. Because it takes a lot of mental effort to run that counterfactual and say "okay, so in this situation, I think Lycan-town would think...". so once you've compiled those fake theories, you'd much rather keep talking about the same fake theory instead of having to come up with new fake responses to other stuff. Whereas real townies can just kind of throw out shit during a catchup and then never come back to it because there was a shiny geegaw over the horizon.

But saying that basically he would have death-tunneled Pine if he had really been in the thread and not wanted to read more is...I mean okay, not what I would do but maybe Lycan-town would? The problem is that he DID once do the "quick swap on new evidence", switching to Ginngie for the drunk-tell. So my worry is essentially "Hey, Lycan seems to be pre-supposing his reads will stay sticky, which seems like a scum assumption." And his response was to quick-swap to Ginngie, go away for four days, then return to say that it's his policy to stick to the tunnel when he sees it. Which doesn't make sense when the initial objection was such as a tiny thing as

Pine interfered with Chamber's push on Eddie. Make your good points™ all you like, I'll probably roll my eyes onto my touchpad. What shooting it down immediately does is remove any utility his poorly intended question had. Why'd you break up the fight Pine? Chiarire.

And he swapped for drunk posting himself! And now he seemingly doesn't read that all as scum/scum anymore since Ginngie is a town read! Like a Lycan ISO that jumps from ISO 3 right to ISO 13 I think I would actually buy as frustrated town, but reading it all in order just feels super incoherent. (I'm deliberately not linking the posts so you read him in ISO and get the effect yourself.) So anyway that is why I am still happy with Lycan vote.

(though while we're talking about ISOs, man, if I'm gonna have to hear a theory about why I'm actually Pine's scumbuddy shielding him, I will invite everyone to hit his ISO starting at 71. Look at how happy he is to sheep and spam post when the pressure is off, huh.)

But anyway, Axel also does have the issue of "how dare you fools support this" kind of posting. 772 feels a lil uncomfortably much like he realized "ah shit I did another post assuming rofl is town" and did a hasty postscript. But his latest post 779 kind of explains that in that, if his gut feeling is "look, the scummy people jumped on when it was safe to do so", you kinda would think that the wagon prime mover is town?

so there's stuff I don't like about Axel and I wouldn't be terrifically sad if he was the lynch, but I still prefer Lycan a discrete tier more.

re: MoI's point on wagonflow - I think that is something that can be meaningful in a more active game, but sometimes when scums are slumming they're just gonna keep slumming even if the lead wagon is on their partner. Like if jesus came down and said "Two of the scum are Firebringer and Pine", would you really still think "Well, Lycan can't be their buddy, or Firebringer and Pine would have started proactively leading a persuasive charge on an alternative candidate!" (But yeah, if everyone had been engaged and active vote wheelers and dealers, wagonflow would be a lot more useful as an investigation tool. Hey, wasn't there that one guy who wouldn't shut up about something like that...? )

It does seem like there's some resistance to the current two choices, and since we're close to the deadline, here is my no-go list: Tammy, Old Man, CooLDoG, MoI (new addition from soft town to solid town after 793, I don't agree with the wagonflow point but it's very town indicative that's where he was looking + I really like that he's being very forward with the compromises he's making). And my "I won't say no-go, but you'll have to sell me hard" list is rofl, insanity, and Ginngie (entirely on the strength of PJ, it must be said). Outside of that, if you wanna flash wagon monger, I will at least listen.

whoops wall post! well tbh I needed to do some soul searching on lycan a bit

[hitogoroshi]

In the realm of dumb annoying tells, I actually think posting spreadsheet notes is scummy, but the last time someone did it he was town and I spent a good portion of the day pinged about it.

I don't think it's an inherent tell prima facie, but in this specific circumstance, it sure does seem to support my theory:

Like, basically my issue with his posting was that fake reads are stable but real reads can change. So front-loading a lot of effort into the beginning of the game to generate reads and then wanting to keep talking about them is something I find scummy. Because it takes a lot of mental effort to run that counterfactual and say "okay, so in this situation, I think Lycan-town would think...". so once you've compiled those fake theories, you'd much rather keep talking about the same fake theory instead of having to come up with new fake responses to other stuff.

Except instead of the sticking point being the mental effort of running counterfactuals, it's the time effort of that spreadsheet.

Also for those keeping score at home, literally sitting down and counting interactions is apparently the scumhunting style of the person who also thinks

Here's a hint to not being horseshit town: when you see something scummy, you don't keep reading and trying to sort the person. You put noose around their neck because they legitimately have to die. The more information you have, the more likely you are to gain a shit read.

yo, too much information makes you horseshit town. if you got a problem with that, you can tell it to my meticulously compiled, color-coded spreadsheet.

[hitogoroshi]

I'm not in theory opposed to the KMD wagon but it's a little surprising to see with regard to Tammy's Lycan read and Pine's Axel read - both of them feel like "downgrades" in terms of those players getting what they want. I still think Lycan is a much better lynch and I'm curious how anyone else sees ISO 13 and ISO 15 as a pair and interprets it as an earnest attempt at scumhunting vs. trying to do something psuedo-objective just to be seen doing it. Who cares enough about interactions to sit and catalog them one by one in a spreadsheet, while ALSO caring little enough to be comfortable using interaction counts as they were circa the first third of the game? Surely raw counts are like, the poster child for "The more complete, the better" in terms of investigation methods?

Also, what are the counts even supposed to mean? He mentioned

Hito has no interactions with Pine. Pine has no interactions with Hito. Moi-Pine and Moi-Josh have some of the highest interactions in the game.

With no mention of what that means, and which one of those permutations is scummy (evidently lots of interactions AND few interactions both mean scumbuddies?) For all of that work, what is even the core insight he's supposed to be deriving from this? I think Lycan posted ISO 13 just waiting for anyone to say something about interactions so he'd have an excuse to post a screenshot of his spreadsheet, so we'd all think wow, he's doing a spreadsheet, what a townie guy that guy is.

as far as this goes:

it boggles my mind that no one else is even concerned by the fact that axel put actual effort into scrutinizing both kmd and tywin[lycan] earlier in this day and now that they are the only two viable lynches aside from himself he won't commit to either.

I do think this is a problem, but Axel's posting in the last few days seems to indicate that his philosophy of

I'm not posturing. I just really don't like to be wrong. And I actively feel bad when I accuse someone incorrectly of being scum.

Is a sincerely held one. (Although to get a little MD-in-my-mafia game for a second, Axel, the hito-rofl philosophy on wagons and voting is objectively much more pro-town and effective than yours. You should convert!) And hey, if you want to vote someone who just seems like they're trying to avoid the leading wagons so they're not seen mislynching, there's someone hiding out alone on MoI I think would be a good vote.

[hitogoroshi]

these questions are implicitly buried in my post but since deadline is close I will pull them out to be explicit:

Tammy:

If you haven't liked Tywin's posts at all, and least liked a few of KMDs posts, why start the new KMD wagon vs voting Lycan?

Pine

: Why the switch of Axel for a self-professed "lurker lynch" when you've been pro Axel lynch for so long? Especially when you posted 810 advocating consolidation?

Also worth noting that I am around tomorrow so I can be one of the deadline swappers if needed. But I really do think that the KMD lynch gets us a lot less than a Lycan lynch, in terms of both odds to hit and useful intel.

stop ignoring me

What are you looking for from me? Even ISO'd your last posts and I don't see it.

[hitogoroshi]

hito all the sudden acting like he hasn't been dangling the possibility of getting on the axel wagon and pretending only kmd and lycan are viable i see you

Like I said - I thought Axel's attitude on voting seemed off, but having seen more it really does seem to just be a playstyle thing. Also Lycan got worse!

Also you should be happy I want Pine to clarify Axel vs. KMD instead of just letting him slink on, because the Axel wagon almost certainly can't find the gas without him coming back.

P Edit, Speaking of which...

@Hito - If Axel were viable we'd have seen movement by now. There's support for a KMD flashwagon. It's subpar but an acceptable D1 EOD lynch with a decent chance of hitting scum.

So you still think Axel is more likely scum than KMD? You're in a spot here where the leading wagon out of KMD/Axel is the one you're on, so it seems weird that you're talking like you're being buffeted off of Axel.

[hitogoroshi]

yeah I'm with rofl claiming VT is a pretty strong town signal here cause all KMD-scum needs to do is...say nothing at least until seeing where some of the other undecideds fall. On the plus side if KMD flips scum we basically win the game cause most (maybe all?) of the votes on KMD would be bonkers bus votes.

tbh now I start to wonder if maybe rofl and I are just both right because wow I thought the town didn't like wagons but y'all were sure hungry for a non-Axel, non-Lycan option huh

in conclusion, Firebringer is the physical manifestation of an spell to make my wishes come true in horrible ways

"hey Firebringer, I don't like that you have scum reads but are sheeping someone on a professed town read instead"
*finger on monkey paw curls inward*
"Firebringer will indeed stop sheeping on town reads...because he'll just be active lurking"

"Hey Firebringer, I don't like that your vote isn't in play and you're not consolidating or pushing my wagon more"
*finger on monkey paw curls inward*
"Firebringer will indeed consolidate...by hammering a player he's never given a read on, while saying they're probably flipping town"

probably more twilight chat coming because twilight chat rules, but breaking in case dad comes home

[hitogoroshi]

If KMD is town and Lycan is scum, look to Eddie and insanity who basically let me corral them on to Tywin/Lycan is slow motion (again, with those instances I mentioned that looked like "coaching disguised as questioning") but were quick to abort to somewhere else. Similar argument if KMD is town and Axel is scum for Pine. Yeah, if rofl and I are BOTH right then that's too many other buddies. To be clear I'm not really super gung ho on that theory. Still think Axel's conduct in the last few days smells more than anything like a townie who just legitimately CAN'T vote "best I got". It's just more of a paranoia theory to explain why rofl and I had to wade through endless inertia swamps to get voters for our wagons but people defected to KMD at breakneck speed because yeah yeah deadline is deadline but still, our votes were hard won and easily lost.

If KMD is scum, his wagon is full of town. maybe rofl comes off worse? or you could follow Pine and lynch me next. I really don't care! we have one dead scum and like a million town reads you don't need me to give reads, figure it out yourself

Nice Eddie I am actually at my parents farm dogsitting. I only have three instead of a couple dozen but on the flip side, they are very loud and dumb. I don't remember seeing questions in the meta post but I will look again. maybe will get to it now but obv. that's less important for ~twilight time~ cause if I get nk'd I assume there's nothing you'll be like, wow, I wish hito had answered that question about his meta before he died.

[hitogoroshi]

tomorrow the flow chart

check OM claim, lynch if he doesn't deliver. Vanillaiser has been explicitly non-normal for years so it's not that.

KMD flipped town? pressure Lycan! at the very least folks who don't want to go after him should give positive reasons from his play and not this wagon flow "well he was the only one that had some sticky votes early, so must be town". Cause those sticky votes weren't that sticky and also being super frank a lot of that is probably a factor of me being the only person even trying to mobilize a push.

Axel also will have flips which he said he can do a lot with in some far back iso post so definitely don't allow this kinda hew-haw tomorrow. also focus effort on the defectors insanity (strange move off Lycan) and Pine (strange move off Axel). I guess technically also Eddie (but his defection was at least more forecasted) and Tammy (still don't think Tammy is scum but it's also true KMD wagon was more or less entirely birthed by Tammy not wanting Lycan).

KMD flipped scum? everyone gets ice cream, do what you want. Firebringer could maybe still be a buddy but most of the others make very little sense as one precisely because of all of the defections I mentioned above.

wait till tomorrow when i death tunnel you all day.

whatever gets you posting buckaroo

[hitogoroshi]

I was expecting to see some huge tone difference based on your posting, stuff that's "too hard to replicate" etc
what's that?
your activity here is higher middle I believe but I don't think that's gonna be AI
you're more aggressive here which is mildly town indicative
it doesn't match what I was hoping to find though, some easy ass meta reads. what gives dilly bar

i thought the "what gives dilly bar" was rhetorical. actually "what gives" is a vaguely theological question but it's twilight chat where no question is too weird to answer

anyway, accounting was an off game, but VCA is a little biased because bork claimed scum after getting "hammered", then people moved votes, then realized she hadn't been lynched. So I was on the bork wagon but maybe not voting on it in VCA? so a little better than it shows there because I had that and got lylo correct, but not a stellar game yeah.

the "big difference" between scum and town is...well partly tone I think because I had an easier time playing scum on Copper. Some activity tell because I don't like scum. Tbh there's kind of what I was going on about with Lycan, where you'd rather talk about a past theory instead of talking about new theories because generating that initial "what would I have thought" is hard.

But it's also true that I have the rep of being one of the players who is HORRIBLE scum because it's how I started when in reality I bet I'm mediocre scum by now. I actually was doin okay in FTL but that setup was just outrageous. so that might be why you were expecting EASY ASS meta reads and found them a little murky, because hito scum used to be just the worst. I don't know who gave you whatever information you had about me by reputation but someone who played with me in the older days would have told you that for sure.

be careful what u wish for mate

"Man, even if he's suspecting me, I just want Firebringer to post about game relevant things so I can read him."
*finger on monkey paw curls inward*
"Firebringer will indeed post...through his entire reserve, on the first day of D2, and then naked vote you once a day"

[hitogoroshi]

There you go. I was a little weirded out that you left me off the first one. I'm quite a bit surprised at how fast that wagon went. I was expecting to still have to make a decision between Axel and Lycan today - Axel I did not want, and yeah Lycan I was getting cold feet on.

The first one was just the folks who actually voted the lycan wagon with me but then hopped. (iirc you gave lots of verbal support but never got on?) I mean, I don't agree with your cold feet just because I think the iso 13/15 misalignment is a strong point and don't agree that it's forcing a contradiction - esp. since you found another post that makes ISO 13 seem out of place - but the defecting voters is for me the biggest thing to eyebrow at for KMD town, Lycan scum.

Tammy play hypo reads on KMD flip with me I don't know what Tammy's ghost would want if you greenflip tonight

[hitogoroshi]

Yeah absolutely wagoning the fuck out of Hito D2. He's REALLY acting like informed minority around the KMD lynch here.

what do YOU think KMDs flippin

[hitogoroshi]

for what its worth if I had a tree stump able to keep playing, I woulda got eddie but only after mislyching pine. kinda sad people didn't remember that the whole thing about tywin being scum also really heavily implied at least one of eddie/pine as scum.

I would have lynched Old Man also, probably even sooner than y'all ended up doing, because it was pretty clear he was lying as soon as he audibled to gunsmith. But I guess he was just lying because he has brain worms or whatever. I would say blacklisted but if he made an anon alt to dodge whatever bad decisions he made before once, I'm sure he's just going to do it again. (He's probably going to be responsible for me being more strict about letting new accounts in my games, though.)

hard agree that passive role disabler is a gross way to use the "new role" functionality for a normal game, because it just means that someone who DOES have a normal role has it rendered inoperable in a way they can't possibly anticipate. Love ya korts but I just really disagree with the decision to use the new mechanic allowance on a

counterplay

role. Playing around unknowns is just not what folks sign up for in normals.

[hitogoroshi]

Imagine the PGO is confirmed as being a PGO.

the entire point of PGO is that this is impossible, save a decidedly not Normal "Role detector" role. Even confirmation gambits where a town PR sacs themself to the PGO (which already eliminates the whole advantage you're talking about) don't work because scum can always choose to just double-up killing that PR and then it STILL looks identical to scenarios where the scum are running a fake PGO.

I know this sounds weird since I called PGO town from the start but that was on my read of the situation, you can't mechanically conftown a PGO.

[hitogoroshi]

@Hito: I believe I suggested a way to conftown a PGO: be targeted by a Roleblocker when there's only 1 member of the mafia left alive.

If the PGO claim was a mafia fakeclaim, they could just shoot the roleblocker, right? So even if the PGO is town, they can shoot the roleblocker (or no-kill and trust the PGO to do it's job - it depends if you're more scared that the roleblocker is gambiting and going to target elsewhere, or if you're more scared of a watcher on the roleblocker). If only the roleblocker dies at night, I don't see a way for the town to verify whether it was due to them targeting a PGO or being shot by the mafia to keep up their fake PGO.